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Sharp or Square
NFL Week 16 Bets: Rams-Seahawks, Patriots-Ravens, Niners-Colts, Bucs-Panthers, Jaguars-Broncos and more
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- [00:00]
Sophie Cunningham
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:02]
Chad Millman
Guaranteed Human.
- [00:06]
Coca Cola Announcer
What a matchup we got y'.
- [00:07]
Sophie Cunningham
All.
- [00:07]
Coca Cola Announcer
This is that classic HBCU vibe. Non stop action. The band is rockin and the crowd lit chance echo drum beatin Everybody showing that school pride. Game like this, yeah, it calls for an ice cold Coca Cola. Ah, crisp and refreshing. That's a game changer right there. Yeah, that taste always hits the right note. Just like the band at halftime. And just like that, we're back at it. Passionate fans, school colors everywhere and in ice cold Coca Cola. That's a winning combo no matter the sport, no matter the yard. Everybody knows fan work is thirsty work. So grab a Coca Cola and keep that HBCU pride going.
- [00:52]
Halion Brand Representative
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- [01:22]
IBM Representative
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- [01:50]
Sophie Cunningham
This is Sophie Cunningham from Show Me Something. Do you know the symptoms of moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea, or osa, in adults with obesity? They may be happening to you without you knowing. If anyone has ever said you snore loudly, or if you spend your days fighting off excessive tiredness, irritability and concentration issues, it may be due to osa. OSA is a serious condition where your airway partially or completely collapses during sleep, which may cause breathing interruptions and oxygen deprivation. Learn more at. Don't sleep on OSA.com this information is provided by Lilly, a medicine company.
- [02:29]
Total Wireless Announcer
This podcast is sponsored by Total Wireless, the official wireless partner of ufc. When you're streaming the fight or sharing those takedown highlights, you need a wireless provider that keeps you close to the action. With Total Wireless, you're covered by the Verizon 5G network, so you don't have to worry about your connection being knocked out at the biggest moments. It's not something you can usually say about a wireless provider, but Total Wireless really does have your back. They're in your corner every second of the day, so you never miss a thing. Visit totalwireless.com or visit your local Total Wireless Store to learn more about how Total Wireless can be in your corner. 5G access requires a 5G capable device and a 5G service area. Additional terms apply. See website for details.
- [03:21]
Chad Millman
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Bat. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my bff, my co host, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon.
- [03:47]
Simon Hunter
Chad. Another three and two week. We can't help ourselves dude.
- [03:52]
Chad Millman
Listen, I gotta tell you something. I'm in Vegas. So if people, if it's not like sounding or looking exactly as it normally does, that is why I think it's special to go 3 and 2. Simon. I think any week that we're not underwater is a winning week by definition. I know people would like to go 4 and 1. I know people would like to go 5. 0. We grind it out. We want to win every week. We want to win over the long haul. This week the Rams won with us. The Bills won with us. The Vikings won with us. Even though I was sure we had missed our window by not putting in the commanders and not putting in the Saints, it all worked out. We lost with the Chiefs and the Packers. Packers who also coincidentally lost their best players on offense and defense. And Patrick Mahomes and Michael Parsons. We're going to get into that for the year 4233 for our five best picks through 15 weeks. This is our Tuesday show. We're going to review the entire slate. Make sure you check out that Sunday AM show if you want the games that we will be in our official favorite final five for the weekend. Don't forget you can go to Sharper Square on YouTube like this video. Subscribe to the channel, download it from Spotify pods, Apple pods, wherever you get your pods. Here we go. Thursday Night Football and it's a doozy. The Rams are visiting the Seahawks. Seahawks are one point underdogs in this game. I feel like there's a lot of things that are playing to the Rams disadvantage in this game. It's going to be very rainy. They won't have Devonte Adams and the entire consensus of the public community is on the Rams because they've been so dominant and because they've dominated Sam Darnold. Are people walking into a trap with the Los Angeles Rams.
- [05:49]
Simon Hunter
They could be but I'll join them. Honestly, the pros have come in. They're with you on the Seahawks. They have the Seahawks. But how does anything about that weather situation help the Seahawks more than the Rams? Rams actually have a good running game with a really good running back. Seahawks do not have that. They have a lackluster run game and they're one receiver dominant team. So yeah, Puka jsn They're both top tier. They kind of cancel each other out. But the quarterbacks, one quarterback's been slipping these last couple weeks and that's, that's Sam Darnold. Well, one other quarterback has kept on ascending so the Rams are due for a letdown. So yeah, I guess you and the pros are I guess right to take a position on Seattle and I'll just be patient. I mean there's a couple of books here already at a pick so you know it's, it's going to Seahawks way. If you do like the Seahawks I would go grab the one and a half if that's the side you want to be on. But I think this is going to be a nice spot for this Rams team and I just might be too in love with them because last week, honestly like I know you said you weren't worried about I had a way that's probably my last big regular season better the season that Rams side and I literally had the line of eight and a half and it did not look that entire game like they deserved to be in a half favorite. So I really think I got away even though they were up, you know, 14 points with not that much to go in the fourth quarter that it's just I thought I probably have too much, too high of expectations right now for this range team. I just think they're the clear class and above everyone else in the nfc. So I'm still going to rate them power rate them as the better team here the Seahawks and I just do not trust the Seahawks team right now. It's really Sam Darnold. Just something a little bit off about him. So a good bounce back spot for him. Like he should be able to play well here against a ramp secondary that does play a lot of zone. He does beat it usually but I just, I can't, I can't get there. So if it is bad weather like you said, I probably won't put as much into this ram side but I do trust this runs game. At the end of the day I trust their run game more than I trust the Seahawks run game.
- [07:41]
Chad Millman
Well, look, the Seahawks, Sam Darnold, the Rams have been his kryptonite the past couple games, right? Look back at the Vikings playoff game last year. Look back at the first game between the Rams and the Seahawks this year. No matter what defense they've been playing, they've figured out something with Sam Darnold. I, by the way, I haven't bet the game. I'm just looking at this from a. All right, what measure would the public be on and do I want to be fading that I don't have a strong opinion on this game?
- [08:11]
Simon Hunter
No, it's professional money. It's. It's early. Like you're on the right. Read where the early pros are taking that side. So I'm, I know I'm very Joe publicly and I just, like I said, I think I'm too in love with this Rams team because they just want me a ton of money and it's just like they're just, I think they're so good right now. So it's, it's tough for me on this one.
- [08:27]
Chad Millman
All right, listen, we know it's the holiday season because we got two burn burner of Saturday games. And I mean that for both of them. We, we got the Eagles and the Commanders, and the Commanders are six and a half point underdogs at home. And it's a, it's an interesting spot, I think, if you're the Eagles, because everyone thinks they got right. Everyone looks at what they did against the Raiders. They finally had a complete game. They dominated a team that didn't score and had 75 yards and total offense. They scored a lot of points. Everyone is happy. All is well in Philadelphia right now. And meanwhile, the Commanders, they got right off of their blowout loss to the Vikings. They beat the Giants on the road. They've clearly been inspired by what happened to Patrick Mahomes because they are sitting Jaden Daniels for the rest of the year. So we know it'll be Marcus Mariota, 6 1/2 point underdogs. Very tricky spot. I think it's a, it's a, it's a nice primer for what will be the next game as a, as a full afternoon evening, Saturday watch. No opinion on this game right now.
- [09:36]
Simon Hunter
I do, unfortunately, I'm probably gonna end up being on Washington, but yeah, they did what I thought they're gonna do. We talked, you know, a couple weeks ago where it's like I told you, a bunch of people in the front office were like, dude, we do not want Daniels playing Anymore. It's just, it's a lost season. We don't want him to get hurt and have lingering effects the rest of his career. And sure enough he came back because he's competitor and he got hurt again and it's the right decisions, they're just what are you doing? So for me, Mariota as well, he's been playing better than Daniels was when Daniels did come back. So I'm gonna take it. I'm just, I'm not buying it with the Eagles yet. And this is another great spot for them. This is a horrible defense in Washington and Hertz should play really well against him. It's just if this is what I think they are, which is a Super bowl contending team, this Philadelphia team, they should dominate and blow this team out just like they did the Raiders. They're just so much better than them across the. And you know, defensively there are things they can take take advantage of Washington with Mariota. But yeah, this is just really a fade on. I'm just not buying yet what the Eagles are putting out there and this is a good spot for them. So you know, the, the public, everybody's gonna be handyman this team. Like you said, it's a Saturday standalone game. I'm not going to invest too much in the Commanders. They, they, they got away with what it felt like last week where every little bounce felt like was going their way. Where we've seen this Philly team, it's crazy to look at the future market. They're the exact same number as they were last year heading in the playoffs. They're 10 to 1 right now, super bowl odds. So it's, it's kind of funky where the books are kind of telling you they're not as bad maybe as I'm perceiving as the public's perceiving them. So, you know, not, not shocked to see the public coming in on them here. And this number is six and a half. A couple books. So if you want the Commanders, go grab it. If you. Obviously, if you like the Eagles, you might be able to get five and a half. I just think the pros are going to hit this Commander side. It's, it's exactly what I think it's like. Even if Hertz is figuring it out and much better, there's an avenue for this Commanders team to score points. Right? Mariota, a mobile quarterback that tends to give the Eagles problems. So it's, it's a really fun matchup. But like I said, another game where I'm like you. I'M happy to pass on it.
- [11:39]
Chad Millman
I don't want to pass on the next one. Green Bay Packers Saturday night visiting the Chicago Bears. Dude, what a difference two weeks makes. When this line opened Sunday night, it was packers two and a half. You and I both were confused by the number. We both bet into the Bears at plus two and a half. It is now moved to one and a half. I'm surprised that immediately on Sunday following the Micah Parsons injury and the Christian Watson injury, it hadn't moved the way that it did, the way that it has since then. Meanwhile, like this was a game two weeks ago by the time it's played in Green Bay. The Bears dominated in the second half, completely dominated this excellent, excellent defense with their running game. And if you look back at the throw that Caleb Williams had intercepted in the end zone by Nixon in which he was trying to. To get. I think it was to call commit in the corner of the end zone to tie the game. If he had thrown that ball a step earlier, the tight end is wide open in the back of the end zone. It was the right call he didn't execute on the play. This Bears team might have gone in to win that game. So now you've got a team that built off that momentum, played perfectly against a terrible team in the Browns, but played perfectly in cold weather. So I'm looking at this and thinking, why don't I just love the Bears even more here? I also might just love the Bears. I will say this. It was loud at Soldier Field this past weekend, but I also know that tickets were still pretty cheap. Like there were die hards who were giving up their tickets to that game because it was too cold. I don't want to see that this weekend. I want people. I want people who have their tickets going in and if they are reselling those tickets, I want those tickets going for four figures. Chicago's got to show out for this game.
- [13:43]
Simon Hunter
It's fair. Bears fans to be a little weird of your steam though, Chad. I'll give them that. So, so weary. Yeah, I. I know what to do with this one, buddy. I'm a little worried that your sentiment is what the general public sentiment is. Everyone is kind of loving this opportunity.
- [13:58]
Chad Millman
I know. It's too. It's too much. It's like with Micah Parsons out and Christian Watson out, everyone and, and the way they performed in the second half of the Broncos game, everyone is writing them off saying it's over. And that just feels like too much of an overcorrection. Yeah.
- [14:12]
Simon Hunter
And it's it's la flor off a bad loss. It's just I was there with you on the Bears and it really was about the number, though. I just thought two and a half, three, which was what it opened at, was too much. But I have, I have a pretty good hunch here I'm going to be investing into the screen Bay side and it's just, it's really about the number. It's not that I don't think the Bears are as good as this Packer team, especially with all the injuries that this packers team's had. I think the Bears are pretty much equals for them. So this, the summer does feel fair. It's just about the, the quarterback matchup where Caleb's gonna have to make plays and throws in this game. And that's the exact same thing we said with the last time they matched up. And that was why I took my position on the packers and it literally played out the exact way I thought. And the sportsbook that that number held at six and a half all week on the packers. Last time they played, it landed right on seven. It's another note and I feel like it's going to be a sharp line. So if you do like the Bears, like me and Chad did, I think Chad still does the plus one and a half. I do think they might disappear because I, I think professionals in the public might come in on the spare side just because, oh, it's all a negative. They just, all the injuries they've sustained, it's just, can they overcome it? I, I, I hope I flip maybe by Thursday to this Bear side. We sit here right now, I, I am leaning towards this Packer side in this matchup.
- [15:30]
Halion Brand Representative
Hungry bears are violent bears.
- [15:33]
Chad Millman
Look, maybe the professionals and the public will keep coming in and the number goes from one and a half to one to pick. And then all of a sudden playing the packers on the other side is a little bit more interesting.
- [15:44]
Simon Hunter
Honestly, I think if I didn't bet the Bears on Sunday night, I would be way more into betting Green Bay right now. I'm just holding out hope I could find something to keep me on the Bear side. But I just feel like I know in my heart of heart and I think you know too, this is the exact time to jump off this bear stream.
- [15:59]
Chad Millman
Oh, this is a hundred percent the game where the Bears break all of our hearts. Yeah, I have zero expectations of anything otherwise. Last weekend as a sports fan, I had the Bears crush the Browns. I had Fernando Mendoza win the Heisman. And on Saturday night after he won the Heisman. I watched Maryland compete with Michigan. You know, I'm a huge Maryland fan now because my kid's going there and this was his first, like, college basketball game, and he's sitting in the section that they call the wall, and the announcers are talking about how amazing it is. And, like, all you want for your kid when they go to a school like that and they love sports the way my kid does, is to have that in stadium. Student experience. And I've been to the games at Maryland. It's great. Especially when you're in that section. They roll down the Maryland flag and, like, you're underneath it and it's rippling, and it's like a, you know, European soccer game. Like, I had, like, 24 hours of great experiences. I am expecting to be devastated by Saturday night. I'm just saying, I don't. I don't. I don't expect the Bears to win this game.
- [17:14]
Simon Hunter
And if your kid wants to see some good. Maryland basketball needs a time machine. And go back to 2002 or 2004. It's.
- [17:20]
Chad Millman
We'll get there.
- [17:20]
Simon Hunter
Maryland basketball.
- [17:21]
Chad Millman
No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.
- [17:22]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [17:23]
Chad Millman
Buzz Williams is a brilliant coach, and they've got some great recruits coming in.
- [17:28]
Simon Hunter
And is that where he's at now?
- [17:30]
Chad Millman
Yeah, he's a great coach. Don't. Don't denigrate.
- [17:34]
Simon Hunter
I'm a Duke. What do you want from me, Chad?
- [17:36]
Chad Millman
Oh, geez.
- [17:36]
Simon Hunter
I think I'm gonna let Slay speak poetically about Maryland basketball. Get the. Get the hell out of here.
- [17:41]
Chad Millman
Douche University. You're a big Douche University fan?
- [17:44]
Simon Hunter
Huge, huge douche.
- [17:45]
Chad Millman
Disappointing Kansas City. Now we're moving on to Sunday Kansas City at Tennessee. Tennessee is now a 3 1/2 point favorite. Let me ask you this question. How much do you have, Patrick Mahomes? And as being worth against the point spread in your model, it's like 10 points. So this game only moved seven. It was 11 and a half before Patrick Mahomes was injured and it went down to four and a half. And the pros have bet into Tennessee. Last weekend, you tried to get me to get on Tennessee, and in classic Tennessee Titans fashion, they actually backdoored and covered with about four minutes left. And then the Niners said, no, no, no, no, no, no. And then they kicked a field goal with a little bit of time left to actually cover the 12 and a half point spread.
- [18:33]
Simon Hunter
Right, Right. It's all depends on the number you had because there's obviously 13 and a half, but yeah, that was crazy. Sharp by Vegas.
- [18:39]
Chad Millman
That was crazy. So it's three and a half. You had it at 10, which means you would price this at about one and a half. I would not be uncomfortable betting into the Titans here. I'm not doing it.
- [18:53]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I'll avoid it like the plague. Like, we just lost the goat. I mean, what are we doing here? I don't, I don't know if I want to be involved in the game without Mahomes. It's just, I, I don't have to watch it. It's too painful. Honestly, I still can't believe he's out. It's, it's surreal.
- [19:08]
Chad Millman
It's surreal.
- [19:09]
Simon Hunter
Especially as, like, I, I know Matt Mitchell's not going to dance on his grade, but if I'm an AFC fan, it's like, oh, my God, he's gone. I can't believe it. I really can't. So I don't know what to do with this one. Minshu, obviously, this number with Minshu should be probably closer to a pick, if we're being totally honest. I mean, Kansas City is terrible, but their defense is so good. Even when they've been bad this year, their defense, honestly has been pretty good. Like, they gave up one touchdown that game last week against the Chargers. It was before, you know, halftime with 42 seconds to go. It's like, you don't expect that of them, but still, they only gave up one touchdown. They couldn't win that game. So can Minshew come in and be better than Mahomes with that offensive line in shambles, I just, it's hard for me to trust it, Chad. So, yeah, I, I, I'll take a position maybe on the under or something like that, but picking a side in this game, I'm happy to avoid it.
- [19:59]
Chad Millman
By Sunday, we're going to be wanting the Titans. I'm not saying we're putting in the contest.
- [20:03]
Simon Hunter
I just don't. Because the Titans, you could have got four and a half. Like, we, we already did a show Sunday night and that's where the pro set, like you said, they're hitting the three and a half too, but that's definitely the sharp side. I'm just, Am I really betting on MINU or Cam Ward here? It's, Can I just avoid this one?
- [20:17]
Chad Millman
We're not going to be able to avoid JJ McCarthy as a road favorite against the reeling New York Giants. I mean, look, jj, all props for the win against the Commanders. All props for the win against the gritty. The gritty win. Double Entendre the gritty win against the Dallas Cowboys. And thank you JJ because we needed it to go 3 and 2 in the contest. On principle we cannot bet JJ McCarthy is a road favorite after two good games. We just can't.
- [20:54]
Simon Hunter
And I just again love crazy homer fans were Vikings fans are just non stop posting his, his stats and his QBR and everything like that from these last two weeks because those are the things you look for when you have a young quarterback. It's like you got to take the good where you can. And yeah JG last two weeks he looks like a totally different quarterback. He has been really good and I think the general public thinks he'll keep it continuing. Here they are hammering this Minnesota side and as Simon says, give me the Giants plus three. I want to play a game. Simon says it's, it's unique. It's a unique spot for what I think is a Giants team that as. As bad as luck as they had with Dart and some of the stuff he's done right. Like they've had a couple of games where he feel like he's the opportunity to cover for them and the team for between special teams or defense. One aspect the team hasn't showed up. This feels like the last gasp for this Giants team at home and it feels like a total letdown spot for this Minnesota team that's coming off a really emotional Sunday night win now once again on the road. That's a lot, that's a lot to ask. So yeah, this is, I think we both were joking about before coming on. I can't believe he's a favorite, let alone a huge favorite on the road here. So. It's stunning. Yeah, it's, it's a crazy run. Minnesota, they basically played Washington, dominated them and then just played Dallas and they didn't dominate him. They beat him up pretty good. Now playing this Giants team just a total run through the nfc. So we'll see, we'll see if the Giants go up here. I just think it's about the number. This number is probably closer to a pick. It's as bad as people think the Giants team are. They're not that much different than Minnesota right now. Honestly. Model wise, it's just the quarter quarterback plays different where JJ's been really good these last two weeks and Dart, he's. He's not done his job. Let's be honest, these last couple weeks and you know it's. It was a tough spot against Detroit, a tough spot against New England. But that Washington game, I don't know how much blame I'm gonna put on him. Gave up a ton of points but he, he had a bunch of plays he missed so I, I like dark to bounce back here and it's a total reaction. I can't believe the public is hammering like you said JJ on the road as a, as a favorite and now three points. So unique spot here. Get the Giants at a dog.
- [23:08]
Chad Millman
Let's do a that's our Simon says, presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are on the New York Football Giants plus three against the Minnesota Vikings. All right, quick word from our sponsor at Hard Rock bet. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. You want to know where I bet on sports during the holiday season? It's Hard Rock Bet. Not just because it's the presenting sponsor of our show, but because they make it easy to bet on my favorite teams, players and leagues in just a few simple taps. Especially with their brand new for your page that recommends picks based on my favorite picks and who I like to bet on. I open the app, go to my for your page, find a bet I like and then bam. My bet is placed just in time for me to get back to wrapping presents and enjoying my favorite holiday movie. Sign up today and bet $5 on any game. If it wins. You also score $150 in bonus bets. A winning bet plus an extra hundred and fifty dollars to bet with. Now that's spreading holiday cheer. Plus, Hard Rock bet fills your stockings with new promos daily. So whenever you're listening, just open the app and check out out what you've got. Any day of the week, download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit today. Payable in bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida. In Florida, offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC and all other states must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida, call 1833 playwise in Indiana, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809-with-IT gambling problem call 1-800-GAMBLER in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia.
- [25:17]
Coca Cola Announcer
What a matchup we got, y'.
- [25:19]
Simon Hunter
All.
- [25:19]
Coca Cola Announcer
This is that classic hbcuva nonstop action. The band is rocking and the crowd lit chance echoing drum beat. Everybody showing that school pride game like this. Yeah, it calls for an ice cold Coca Cola. Ah, crisp and refreshing. That's a game changer right there. Yeah, that taste always hits the right note. Just like the band at halftime. And just like that, we're back at it. Ashington fans, school coach colors everywhere. And in ice cold Coca Cola, that's a winning combo, no matter the sport, no matter the yard. Everybody knows fan work is thirsty work. So grab a Coca Cola and keep that HBCU pride going.
- [26:04]
Sophie Cunningham
This is Sophie Cunningham and Wes Wilson.
- [26:06]
Wes Wilson
From Show Me Something.
- [26:07]
Sophie Cunningham
When the weather gets cold, I immediately turn into holiday mode. Sophie, I want comfort food, cozy blankets, and literally anything warm.
- [26:15]
Wes Wilson
Same. And nothing. Nothing warms you up faster than opening a classic Arby's roast beef.
- [26:20]
Sophie Cunningham
It's like edible comfort, slow roasted, tender, juicy. It's basically a heated blanket you can eat.
- [26:26]
Wes Wilson
It's like soul therapy. And if you're feeling a little extra like we usually are, go for the double Arby's double roast beef. You guessed it, stacked tall with double the meat.
- [26:36]
Sophie Cunningham
Or go full chaos like me and grab the double beef and cheddar, warm beef, cheddar cheese sauce, dripping red ranch onions, and again, double the meat.
- [26:45]
Wes Wilson
Holiday season is stressful. Treat yourself to something great. You know what you want. Get an Arby's double roast beef or a double beef and cheddar in store or delivered today.
- [26:54]
Sophie Cunningham
Dude, double roast beef, double beef and cheddar. Twice the meat, twice the happiness. Available for a limited time at participating locations while supplies last.
- [27:04]
Halion Brand Representative
Bam.
- [27:08]
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- [27:35]
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- [28:51]
Halion Brand Representative
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- [29:33]
Chad Millman
Tampa Bay is visiting Carolina on Sunday night. The line was two and a half. We said we were waiting for the line to get to three to bet on Carolina. The line has gotten to three. From everything I'm seeing, the line has moved because of professional money betting on Tampa Bay. Tell me if I'm misreading that, but when I see the number of tickets, the tickets are all on Carolina and the number is still moved to Tampa Bay, which tells me there's professional money like in the Buccaneers.
- [30:07]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's same thing we saw though on Thursday night, right Then Tampa, wherever they opened at, they got hit up to like five and a half or six. I think they opened at three and a half against Atlanta, got bet way up. So you know, just a, it's like the chief scenario. It's like you just, you bet these teams that you think are good playoff caliber teams and you're saying the bad luck camp keep going but maybe they are just bad. So I, I really can't believe the Bucks blew that game. And yeah, this is, I agree with them. This seems like a bounce back spot and you know they're, they have the better team. There's no doubt talent across the board, they have better than Carolina, but I just like the way this Carolina played teams, this Carolina team plays, they're just so tough and I feel like they'll never be out of this one. And especially at plus three, that's such a Key number. You know, we talk about Panthers is a favorite. It's so easy. Just fade them.
- [30:57]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [30:57]
Simon Hunter
And as a dog in this spot where they're kind of being counted out, we should back them too. So again, a game I'm not crazy confident about because it's like, you know, I, like I said the Bucks when I really broke them down. I, I literally have this edit at 2. So, you know, I, I'm taking it with my model that I also like Carolina Panthers. But like when I really break it down, look at this Bucks team. I think my model and the general public is in agreeance. That's why they're getting bent them up with Godwin Mike Evans back and Mecca Buka. It's like. And Bucky, that offense, once they get it all together, they're going to be a problem for a lot of teams. And the Panthers, we've talked, they've had good defensive games, but there are so many ways they can attack on this Bucks team. So yeah, I'm on the Panthers, but I wish, I wish this was three and a half because that would be an automatic here. As we sit here today, Simon says, put in the contest. We already know kind of play, but it's looking like it's gonna go back down to two and a half. Honestly, Chad, we'll see.
- [31:52]
Chad Millman
We'll see. Look, the, the thing about the Panthers that we have loved that now has been codified is Bryce Young has the most fourth quarter overtime comeback victories of any quarterback in the NFL since 2023. That's 11. He nearly pulled it off again this past week against the Saints and didn't get there. But the reason we always like him as an underdog is because Canalo says yes, go in the most insane situations to maximize his opportunity to score points. And Bryce Young, when the game starts breaking down, so good at scrambling out of the pocket, keeping his eyes downfield and being really, really accurate. So I know that the wise guys have come in on Tampa, but to me this number allows the game to be in play almost the entire time. So I'm, I would love it if it got to three and a half. Maybe it will, maybe by Sunday.
- [32:52]
Simon Hunter
Like Hard Rock. I just look now, Hard Rock is the only book that's like basically bouncing. Two and a half and three and a couple books out there are tinkering like getting closer to three and a half. So yeah, like you said, you can be patient on that one. It could, you could get there and get a really good number there.
- [33:05]
Chad Millman
New York jets at the New Orleans Saints. Tyler Shuck moving up the Rookie of the year charts for offensive rookie of the Year. Simon was touting Tyler Shock when he was 200 to 1. If he wins, Simon might win a million dollars on Tyler Shuck because he has just enough invested to make this a massive, massive payout. Wow. The jets are in free fall right now. We, Aaron Glenn is playing his games where he thinks he's being so clever and he loves to sort of tease the media and say I don't know who the quarterback's going to be. I feel like we're saying that every week. We don't know who's going to be playing quarterback for the Jets. Brady Cook or Tyrod Taylor or Justin Fields. We do know it's going to be Tyler Shock. We do know it's going to be Tyler Shock who's so savvy that when he was hit after sliding with 10 seconds left in that game over exaggerated how bad the hit was. Immediately the flag came out that got 15 extra yards. They kicked the game winning field goal. Good for Tyler Shock there for being a savvy veteran quarterback because the guy is 87 years old. I think like him and Philip Rivers might be the oldest quarterbacks in the NFL but at four as a home favorite where they haven't been playing as well, I don't know, I don't want the jets, but I certainly don't want the Saints.
- [34:28]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I'm a little heartbroken, Chad. I, I thought there was something a little off when I made Chuck my hero and you questioned it a little bit on Sunday night. I was like, oh my God, a Chad. Not bad chuck@201. Did you not bet it, Chad?
- [34:38]
Chad Millman
I didn't bet.
- [34:39]
Simon Hunter
Oh my God. Just a gift and I spent like five minutes breaking it down the avenue. He is now 16 to one. So Christ, you could have had him at 201. He's now six in one. And I won't lie to people, I did take out an absurd amount of cash out offers because I had to like I, I basically did a ton of parlays with, with that bet. So like Mike Vrabel coach of the year and Christian McCaffrey Offensive Player of the year and different parlays like that where you know if you bet a hundred bucks you're getting back like you know, 50K. It was pretty insane. So there were some really nice cash out offers. Just because the books are all panicking like that, this to move a guy from 201 to 161 and like you look at all the other guys ahead of him, they're, they're not doing anything that crazy to make them that big a favorite. So this is the exact time to get off the shuck train and the hype here and fade. I mean him as a 4 point favorite. I'm shocked you didn't love the jets. Honestly like this. It's probably because we don't know the quarterback is.
- [35:37]
Chad Millman
But yeah, in my notes I, I love the Jets.
- [35:40]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I don't, I don't care who the quarterback here is in the spot. I'm just simply playing the number and how stupid football is. And they're just. These are two very bad teams. And yes, the Saints are going the other direction. If, if one team's gonna blow out the other team, it's definitely the Saints blowing out the Jets. No doubt. Like their, their defense at least can get big time stops. And like we talked about with Shuck, he's good using his legs and pushing the ball downfield. We are literally about an unknown spot with this chess team. But I mean huge back to back huge divisional wins for the Saints team. Now they're four point favorites against the judge. We have to have to take it. So like I said, there are four and a half's out there if you're gonna back this jets team. I think if it is Taylor or Fields, this could get back to three. So I'll, I'll take it now just in case it's one of those guys getting cleared and this line does move.
- [36:26]
Chad Millman
It big Also, by the way, the jets fired their defensive coordinator this week, Steve Wilkes. And I think the play caller is now going to be the guy who had been their receivers coach on defense. The play caller on defense is now going to be there. He was some, some coach on offense is now going to be the play caller on defense. Things are going great in Aaron Glenn's first year. And shame on the jets who have just not tried in any way to solve the quarterback problem even a little bit for the first year. Head coach Justin Fields was not the solve at all. Everyone knew that. So it's his third team and God knows how many years every Bears fan could have told you he's just not throwing the ball downfield. Los Angeles Chargers at the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys are one and a half point favorites. We discussed this one Sunday night leaning the Chargers. They are still the underdogs. It has come down from two and a half to one and a half. Doesn't it feel chalky to be on the Chargers here? Like they just ended The Chiefs dynasty, the Cowboys just had an ugly loss at home. The majority of the bets around the Chargers here I feel like we never get this Chargers team right. They're like the Titans. We're always off them when we should be on them and on them when we should be off them. If we want to be on them this week. It makes me want to bet the Cowboys.
- [37:49]
Simon Hunter
Yeah but again we, we miss with it. We, we talked the Chargers. You're supposed to just blindly bet Herbert as a dog and it's what, two straight weeks he's covered as a dog. And both times we had good reasonings for going against him. And sure it feels like he got very lucky in the Eagles game in that Chiefs game once again feel like they got very lucky where you, you never expect to shut out my homes and especially with that opportunities they just. That Charger defense has really stepped up. So this is no different than the Minnesota game. Chad, if you're, if you're backing the Chargers you're really backing them because they actually have a good defense that can get stops Dallas on the other side, you saw the exact why we didn't want to back them. It's like they just can't get stopped. So you're right. This is a Dallas spot. Dallas should cover the. The crazy thing is this is super, super professional. The pros are hammering Dallas and the public like you just said, they're hammering the Chargers. So it's another game where maybe I'll get a better feel of it. Try to find out what groups are taking a position here because this is another game where it's like I can't imagine betting six figures into Dallas or the Chargers right now. So I like this one. Totally blows my mind. They're professional groups betting heavy into either side right now. And like you said, there are two and a half's popping out there. They've come back down to certain books but they're still available if you do want the Chargers at plus two and a half. And like you talking a little about though the Cowboys, they offensively should match up and play well here against this Chargers team. But I don't know. You can hear my voice. I just, I can't get there. This Cowboys team is a favorite against a playoff caliber team that the Chargers are. I mean they are a playoff team right now. So totally I can't do it.
- [39:25]
Chad Millman
Can you do Cleveland +10 at home against the Buffalo Bills? Because that's all I have to say. The. There's no questions. We're going to bet The Browns, it doesn't matter. The Bills just came off their game of the year. The Browns just got blown out. If you look at any metrics, like over the history of modeling, it says, take the Browns. And then knowing how we feel about the Browns at home with this defense, Cleveland Brown's plus 10. Don't even say no. Just say yes.
- [39:55]
Simon Hunter
This game had all the makings of a trap. In years past, the Buffalo Bills would see a game like this kind of lay down, not play well and get smacked. But these Bills are not those Bills. Somebody might say they're our Bills. I would say no, because you want to wait and get the 10 and a half. There's 10 and a half popping up out there.
- [40:14]
Chad Millman
As long as you're not saying no. That's crazy. We shouldn't be betting this game at all. I'm fine with it. But we're gonna have to bet the Browns again.
- [40:22]
Simon Hunter
I could change come Thursday. We sit here on Tuesday and I'm like, I just. Maybe I'm just staring at the numbers too long. I'm just so terrified of betting this Browns team and. But we joke. I feel like such an idiot. How did we not just once again fade them last week? And they're. Maybe they've given up. Chad. That's the fear on this Cleveland team, buddy. Like, it's just been non expiring, non inspirational football these last couple weeks. And the only one that really cares, it feels like, is Miles Garrett because he's playing for history.
- [40:52]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [40:54]
Simon Hunter
You know, this, this Josh Allen team, like you said, this is probably the right time to sell on them. And this is a classic game where the Bills lose outright. Honestly, when you go back through it, like the. The games they lose, the ones you never see coming, like that Atlanta game early in the year.
- [41:09]
Chad Millman
So, yeah.
- [41:10]
Simon Hunter
Don't know. Don't know what to do. It's. I feel like we're both in the same spot where this is a dog we are never going to avoid. And ten and a half. Like I said, there's tons of ten and out there. How can I not grab that for this round? See, but my God, is it gross?
- [41:22]
Chad Millman
I just want us to know. I want us to recognize that on Sunday we need to acknowledge it's a dog we're not going to avoid. Which means on Sunday we have to avoid it because.
- [41:32]
Simon Hunter
Can I give you their last three games this Cleveland team chat.
- [41:36]
Chad Millman
Fine.
- [41:37]
Simon Hunter
So they did. That was a crazy one. They went to Vegas. They won 24 to 10. That was huge. They played the 49ers. They lost 26 to 8. We gave all the. It wasn't their fault. It was special team's fault. Then they lost outright to Tennessee, 31 to 29. This defense got embarrassed defensively against the run and against the Bears. Caleb Williams wasn't really throwing the ball over the field. They just ran it down their throat. They lost 31 3. So that's what I'm saying. It's just a little scary. I'm not as confident the Browns team like I should be because like you said, this is a huge number. This is a great spot to fade this Bills team. It's like, my God, if you just give up a little bit defensively, it's totally over. And that's what it looks like for this Brownstein. Like, they just cannot stop the run right now. And the Bills, what are they? Number two, number three, Best running football team in football. So it's a little scary.
- [42:26]
Chad Millman
All right, good. You just talked us out of it. We don't have to put it in the final five on Sunday, thank God, because we locked in today and then we talked ourselves out of it. Good for us. See how much we're learning after 15 weeks of the NFL season.
- [42:38]
Simon Hunter
I just need 150 a week. I mean, we.
- [42:39]
Richard Sherman
We've.
- [42:40]
Simon Hunter
We've been very lucky. I think we've had what, four losing weeks out of 15. But ye just give us 150-week, get us up to 60, because I think we're at 57 or 58 for this season. So five zero week just get us to 60. I love when we're at 60%.
- [42:56]
Chad Millman
You know what I don't love? Cincinnati at Miami with Miami at Hard Rock is a. Is a one point favorite. Most places. They're a one and a half point dog. That is reflective of Hard Rock being in Florida and knowing how to shade the line. I two teams that just got blown out look terrible. Playing in a game against each other in which no one is a clear favorite and there's no significant edge. I don't want to talk about this game. I don't know.
- [43:21]
Simon Hunter
It's our favorite stat. You just said it. Cincinnati got shut out. They scored zero points. We have to bet Cincy.
- [43:26]
Chad Millman
Yeah, look, that stat is now 6 0, I think this season.
- [43:30]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And I think it's like 32 or 33 and 17 since 2020, something crazy like that. So it's just a weird thing where I think since he got shut out, the Cleveland almost fitted. I think Cleveland clicked a field goal. They could have. They could have been that, that number, but they didn't get there. And I am shocked that we can get Cincy plus one. So we already talked about it like this week. It's been interesting to see what the pros are doing. The pros are hammering this Miami team and I, I'm kind of inclined to want to back Joe bro after that embarrassing loss. More than two. Like, not that I want to punch you while you're down, Chad, but how do we. How do we talk ourselves out of that Fading to a. I can't believe as soon as that game started I know you saw that pick. You're just like my God Tua in the elements. Yeah.
- [44:15]
Chad Millman
Terrible.
- [44:15]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Thank God we had the the Pittsburgh on our favorite money line round robin. It's just two outdoors in the cold. It's just every time someone talks themselves into you must kill yourself.
- [44:25]
Chad Millman
So it's kind of remarkable.
- [44:27]
Simon Hunter
It's crazy.
- [44:28]
Coca Cola Announcer
A lot of these guys is quitting, man. They've shut this thing down. I know quit when I see quit. And quit is not disguised. It is evident they're not mentally, physically, emotionally in this thing.
- [44:39]
Simon Hunter
So yeah, it's too at home against a bad team. Right. You're supposed to back two here. So I, I get where the pros are coming. I, I guess I'll just be patient. And I have to grab the Bengals now just because they're plus one. Hard rock. But every other like Chad said, every other book they're still favorite Cincy. So I'm not going to tell you go grab Cincy here. But I, I am. People can tell I'm kind of interested in taking Joe Burrow after an embarrassing loss. And just what I think is the worst game he's ever played in his career. Like I don't. I don't remember another time he's got shut out. So yeah, this, this game, maybe I should just take the over but I have to give aside and I'll just take Joe Burrow.
- [45:14]
Chad Millman
Joe cool.
- [45:17]
Simon Hunter
Joe gonna miss the playoff three years in a row.
- [45:19]
Chad Millman
Cool Joe who's suffered toe injuries, knee injuries, wrist injuries. The poor guy, like he's just down. He's Joe sad. But two is not sad. Two was like he's kind of like you call me a scientologist. Tua is bordering on scientology like mantras with his ability to stay positive. I don't know what they're going to do with that train wreck of a franchise.
- [45:48]
Simon Hunter
Now Atlanta, if you're getting paid 50 million and to live in Miami and be terrible at football He's. He's laughing all the way to the bank, baby. He's on the sideline, down by 21, laughing.
- [45:57]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I know. That's what I'm saying. Like, I don't get paid 50 million. I live in Connecticut to talk about football. And I'm sue and. And I can't get down if I'm Tua and I get to live in Miami and make 50 million. Even better.
- [46:10]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [46:11]
Coca Cola Announcer
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Simon Hunter
All.
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- [50:27]
Chad Millman
At Arizona Arizona's a two and a half point dot. Boy, only on this show would anybody be talking about Arizona as a two and a half point underdog in this game. Drake London may be back. I was leaning Arizona. Then I saw the Drake London News. I'm sideways on this game at this point. Like I can't bet Kirk Cousins again just because they had a flukish win at the end of that game and now he's going to be on the road and at two and a half against an Arizona team that look, they were playing close games and now they're just getting blown out. So I do have one interesting stat for you. Caleb Williams just set the record for fewest interceptions in his first 1000 pass attempts. Do you know whose record he broke?
- [51:17]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Two terrible quarterbacks. Got to be Minshu and Brissette.
- [51:21]
Chad Millman
It's definitely Brissette. I don't know about Minshew, but he broke.
- [51:23]
Simon Hunter
Minchu is the other guy.
- [51:25]
Chad Millman
That's amazing.
- [51:26]
Simon Hunter
It's a good group to be in.
- [51:27]
Chad Millman
I don't want us to get caught into automatically betting percept because we liked what he was doing earlier in the year when he was keeping these teams close, and he was just a better option for the Cardinals than Kyler Murray was. And now all of a sudden, they're getting blown out again, and we think he's a competent quarterback, but the rest of this team is trash. So, like, I kind of want to bet Arizona, but I don't really want to do anything with this game.
- [51:54]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's like we keep talking about the end of the year. This is tricky. We were trying to bet into these bad teams, and it's like you don't know who's totally officially quit.
- [52:02]
Chad Millman
Yeah, exactly.
- [52:03]
Simon Hunter
Arizona. They have quit in many ways. They're. They. They be. They started the year two, and, oh, and they beat Dallas, whatever that was in early November. That's it. They've had. They've had three years, three wins this year, and they've just. Let's look at it right now. They've lost six straight, so it's just. It's hard to back them. But like you said, it's really just about playing the number. I have this. Even with the Drake on the news, I'm probably only going to move it half a point. So I did have it. A pick. Maybe I'll have him at minus one now for this Falcons team, but this is. This is insane. These are two just terrible teams. Falcons, like you just said, they might have just won their Super Bowl. What's working for them is Kirk. He's playing for next year in his. His new job, and the Cardinals have zero pass rush. That's going to give him problems. Like, that's Kirk's, you know, biggest weakness, obviously, is moving him off the spot. He's just terrible being off his spot now because he's zero mobility. But can Arizona really take advantage of that? I don't know, but I just have to play the number. And it's like they're just so due for. For a stupid win. You let on a cover like this. And I don't know who's back in Arizona. It feels like everyone's gonna be back in this. This Atlanta team. So another game where I can Be patient. Like you can grab the two and a half if you want, but I think you're gonna get three, three and a half as the week goes along here. And if a. Drake. Drake London is cleared, I definitely think you're gonna get three, three and a half. I just think public will come in on a Lanier. So be patient if you do like Cardinals side Pittsburgh or Detroit.
- [53:34]
Chad Millman
Detroit is now a seven point favorite. I gotta tell you, this line feels like a 2024 line, not a 2025 line. Doesn't it? Like should the, shouldn't be closer to five instead of, instead of seven.
- [53:54]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I just honestly was mad because I wanted, I wanted to back the lines. I was like, all right, great. Green Bay one big. Maybe we'll get a four, three and a half type of line. We can come in on the lines here. But like you just said, this is so inflated. And yes, the Steelers are terrible. Lions should move the ball on them as much as they want. This is indoors nothing, nothing that can help the Steelers team defensively. This is going to be a track meet. But watching Rogers and stuff, he can do manipulate secondaries like you saw against Miami. If he keeps playing the way he's been playing, shouldn't the Steelers keep this close? Like they do have a passing offense. They do have an offense that can move the ball and can attack you in different ways. And we've talked about this line. Secondary is just so banged up and bad. Yeah, they should be able to get whatever they want with a veteran like, like Rogers. So it's a weird one. Like I, I like I said I wanted to be on Detroit. This is like a must win, more desperate spot for them. But at +7, which is basically every book other than Hard Rock right now on Pittsburgh, I guess I'm gonna take it. It's another game I'm sitting here on Tuesday I don't feel great about because it's like I wanted to be on the lines, but the number just feels inflated. Yeah, too, too inflated. So I'll take it with Rogers in the seven.
- [55:06]
Chad Millman
Also, look, historically, if you want to bet Mike Tomlin, how about betting him as an underdog in a rah rah Tomlin spot on the road like we are. We've said this year we made the mistake of not backing Tomlin in a rah rah Mike Tomlin spot in the division. Rah rah Mike Tomlin spot is a huge underdog on the road. It's hard to walk away from that one. Now that I think about is and.
- [55:31]
Simon Hunter
It isn't though like, because I, like I said, this Pittsburgh defense, no one forgets how bad they are just because they've had some good outdoor cold weather games. This is a defense that could easily be torched for 400 yards against this high potent Detroit offense. I just, I do think Rogers could keep us in. I do think offensively Pittsburgh's offense actually has weapons that can attack this putrid line secondary.
- [55:54]
Coca Cola Announcer
So next time when they ask you.
- [55:56]
Chad Millman
Where you from, you gonna say Detroit City. Where we get back on our feet. Simon. We got the Rams and the Seahawks playing. We got the Bears and the packers playing. But to me the most marquee interesting. What the heck do we do with these teams Matchup is the Jacksonville Jaguars as three point underdogs at the Denver Broncos. Two quarterbacks that we have loved to fade all season long. They have been proving us wrong recently playing lights out. Bo has clearly like done it against better competition as of late in more challenging circumstances. Trevor is just coming off literally the game of his life. What do you have? Five touchdowns, six touchdowns. Passing touchdowns, Rushing touchdowns. What I can't grasp here is the Jaguars have been doing it against terrible competition, right? Or injured competition. In the Colts, The Broncos have been doing it against good competition. What I can't figure out right now is for Trevor Lawrence and the Jags, how much of it is he's finally figuring out what Liam Cohn wants from him. Liam cone is finally putting Trevor in positions to succeed because he knows Trevor's strengths and weaknesses. And the Jacoby Myers trade, which I think has unlocked a ton of potential for this Jaguars offense and the level of competition. Like I want to be on the Jags here and I can't in my head or in the numbers figure out which one of these is true and which one I need to emphasize.
- [57:36]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, maybe we're both biased to Bo Nicks because I, I have this at minus three and a half for Denver, but I still want to be on the Jaguars. I have no idea why that is. It's like what, why can I not commit to Bo Nicks and this Denver team? Like clearly they're the better team here. This Jaguars team, like we've talked about all year, you know, they are good but they beat up, it feels like on bad teams. And even looking back, like you said through their schedule, I, I don't know when it was. Maybe it was early November. I remember them beating the hell out of the Chargers. Like they beat the Chargers 35 to, I don't know, 10. So they have Be good teams in this little streak they're bring on but for me just, it feels like a type of game that's going to be a coin flip. So I want to back the dog in that spot and I, I see both quarterbacks having to have a letdown. Like I just Bo Nix that game he had last week, I've seen him have that game and have total meltdowns the following games. Like he just gets too full of himself. And this Jaguars team, as good as Trevor Lawrence was in that game, a lot of that was scheme like guys were honestly wide open and you know his last touchdown I think was a dump off the Travis Etna and took it like 70 yards. So you know his numbers are a bit, a little bit inflated, but I don't think Liam Combs going to let his head get inflated. So I, I do, I do like the jackster. I can't believe it because it's like the number. My model says take Denver and they're, I know they're the better team here, but it's just, it feels like it's too many points plus three. This Jaguars team is good, man. Like they are a good, they're going to be a tough out, it feels like come. Come January. So again it's, it's not just the offense. Their defense I think is better than people realize. So yeah, I might be missing the mark here for sure on Bo Nicks here, but I, I can't believe I feel more confident in this Jaguars team.
- [59:27]
Chad Millman
Well, let's let it play out. We don't have to commit at this point. We got a minute to sort of examine a little bit more our minds. There are certain games where we've changed our minds this year and this, this could be one of them. Las Vegas at Houston. Houston is a 14 and a half point favorite. Everything says bet the Raiders. Like, you know, the, the, the way the Texans are flying that, the terrible loss that the Raiders just came off of, they're going to have to blow up that entire franchise. They got like they are just death. They got Max Crosby, Brock Bowers, Ashton Genti and they got nothing else of any import whatsoever. They might have to get rid of Pete Carroll. You know, they got rid of Chip Kelly. Chip Kelly, I think in his last 25 games as a professional coach was 4 and 21 either as offensive coordinator and, or head coach and hadn't scored over 30 points in any of those games. So this offensive genius thing, it didn't work. Isn't this when. And, and I'm not Saying we have to. But isn't this when you're supposed to bet the Raiders?
- [60:32]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it was. Is the lesson Chicago I didn't learn in Philadelphia. In the NFL the players do matter. Like you can't just get rid of everybody and think, no, it's me in the scheme. No, it's, it's always going to be about the players in this league. It's just the talent levels that high and the coaching is what changes it and takes it to another level. So you know, look at this Vegas team. Like you said, this is the exact spot I know people don't want to hear because I told me about their money line last week. I'm betting the Vegas money line again. Like this is just, we've seen it. These late season huge dogs, they randomly upset these high flying playoff teams who just overlook them and have a letdown game. It's just human nature. So you know, can, can Houston beat them by 14 and a half points? Of course. I mean the Raiders just got shut out against the Eagles and I think.
- [61:17]
Chad Millman
Well look, just what happened this past week with all the huge favorites. They all won.
- [61:21]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, that's true. They all covered.
- [61:23]
Chad Millman
Except for, except for Seattle against Philip Rivers.
- [61:26]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And again that was crazy win by them that in another life the Colts definitely win that game. So I, I, I, I get it. People are probably sick of this one. I, I have a feeling they'll come Sunday. I might be talking Chad and trying to take the Raiders a plus 14 and a half. It's just me into it.
- [61:42]
Chad Millman
I just said to you, don't we have to take the Raiders? You're not talking me in anything. I'm sitting here in Vegas, I'm sitting on Sunday.
- [61:47]
Simon Hunter
I don't know if you're gonna. You're saying that right now. It's a lot different to put it in the actual contest being like, yeah, we are really, really putting the Vegas left for dead team against the best defense in football in the contest. So we'll.
- [61:57]
Chad Millman
Yeah, right, right now I think our, our five is going to be the Giants, the Jets, Cleveland, the Raiders, the Cardinals. It's going to be a fucking blast on Sunday. Let's talk about some prime time games. First of all, Sunday night, New England at Baltimore. Baltimore is a three point favorite. I'm saying it now. Chad's choice presented by Hard Rock Bet it's going to be the New England Patriots.
- [62:26]
Simon Hunter
Are you sure you want to do this? Are you willing to make a choice? My choice?
- [62:31]
Chad Millman
We can't run from who we are.
- [62:34]
Simon Hunter
Sharp Dudes can just see it, you know what I mean?
- [62:40]
Chad Millman
Jumping on the New England Patriots bounce back bandwagon. But you know, you gave us your Shame on you. To all the cocky Patriots fans who victory laps in the first half of that Buffalo Bills game, you may not know the first victory lap was by former Patriots quarterback now announcer Scott Zolak of the Patriots radio network. Listen to what he said on the air in the middle of that game. This is what Simon was talking about.
- [63:25]
Simon Hunter
If you're a Buffalo Bill fan right.
- [63:26]
Coca Cola Announcer
Now, what are you thinking?
- [63:29]
Simon Hunter
Your window is closed. There's a new AFC east champ and they were all blue here today.
- [63:35]
Coca Cola Announcer
This is out the gate, God bless him.
- [63:39]
Chad Millman
But you and I bet the Bills in that game and we still weren't like didn't think, oh my God, we're out of it because they're up 21 nothing in the first half. Apparently he wasn't paying attention to the fact that the Patriots had the best point differential in the first half and the Bills have the best in the second half and that continue to play out. But look, this is a bounce back spot and if you talk about two teams that are going in opposite directions right now, the Ravens are reeling and even if they're winning, they're still reeling. And what they did against the Bengals to me is not an indication of oh yeah, they're all of a sudden in a better position. They may still win this game, but I think it's going to be a very close game and I like the Patriots ability to bounce back when they absolutely have to. They got to win this game to stay in contention to win this division. I'm going to trust Mike Vrabel here as an underdog. That's the bottom line.
- [64:29]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And it's, it's great test for this, this, this Patriots team where you know, not that we, we've been just never ending beating them up about easy their schedule is but come on now, like that's just everyone's talking point. They've had an easy schedule and they, it's been nice. They have real good test here before the playoffs to see what this team isn't if they're for real. They failed. They failed the first test right in December. That was like you just said, that was lined up perfect for them. They had their foot on the throats of that Bills team and just like their fan base, who knows what happened to that halftime but they came out and just did not make the right adjustments and this Bills team did and they dominated. It's another test of a veteran team with a veteran MV former MVP quarterback that they're having a down year but they have the guys right? The Ravens have the talent to be a good team and win this game, but they just have not been playing that way this season. Even that Cincinnati game, Cincinnati has so many opportunities to win and steal that game and just Joe kept giving it away. I'm gonna trust Drake May to bounce back. I know it's crazy but it's like I just every game the more I watch, the more I become a believer of Drake Manus playing style and you know, the MVP stuff that might be out the door now at this point if these other veteran quarterbacks like Josh Allen or Stafford keep playing at such a high level. But this is the type of game that gets him right back into it if he wins it. Right? This is a really good test for him and a game that they must win. So I'm with you. Matchup wise breaking it all down. It's can we be a little patient and see who the Patriots getting back if that's going to be a big deal defensively, sure. But I just think this is the type of matchup where Ravens defense is suspect. I know they got their shut out last week, but I still think the Patriots McDaniels are going to be able to move the ball here. So I am shocked. This number's up to plus three and I'm looking forward to hearing what the pros are thinking this one because it's all early Ravens money right now. And yeah we might be the public side of this Patriot side, but I think the public's right here. This is too big of a number for this Patriots team.
- [66:27]
Chad Millman
Last game on the board the San Francisco 49ers visiting Philip Rivers in his second start as a 44 year old grandfather nearly pulling off the upset last week. The Indianapolis Colts are five and a half point underdogs.
- [66:45]
Halion Brand Representative
You know at some point we had to get to Philip Rivers sixth on the NFL's all time passing yardage list.
- [66:52]
Simon Hunter
With arguably one of the most awkward throwing motions in the history of football.
- [66:57]
Chad Millman
It almost feels low to me to be honest. Like the Niners should be the side here. We got the excitement, we got the Philip Rivers bounce. He did some things. Now defenses have seen him. He's having a hard time throwing that ball. As we discussed on Sunday night, the the Niners to me have been a much more competent offense than the Seahawks have been the past few weeks. Comparison to comparison even level with full roster Brock Purdy, McCaffrey Kittle all playing. I like the Niners who.
- [67:31]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Not. Not sure what to do with this one. Just weird. A little bit. It's. It reminds me a little bit of the Dallas Vikings game where I talked. That was a prime time trap. This has prime time trap written all over it. So I am hoping this number goes up. It is going up. Like you said, there were five and a halfs out there on the San Francisco side and it's gone up. A lot of books now are popping up to six, six and a half. So I think your early reads right, the professionals are. Are joining you on this 49ers team. I just, I have so many questions about this 49ers team. I know they've been playing really well and they've been winning their offenses in full click mode. But I just. I don't know. There's something just off with me about this 49ers team. So I, I think you're right where I'm diving in the numbers and I'll see it. This is going to be probably a better side to be on this 49ers team. So if we have to give an early bet here, I'll join you on this 49ers team. But it's really about the number. I'll grab the six now because I think it is by the time we do Thursday show, it is up to six and a half, maybe seven. Just because I, I just, I don't know who's betting the Colts, who is backing the Colts here? That's what I'm interested to find out. So if I get clearance that there's no wise guys hammering this cold side mean you were stepping in it. I'm happy for us to be back in this one. Even the contest because I, I'm like you, it's like 49ers offense, they should roll this Colts defense and we've seen it solid defensively. He's, you know, I don't know how he's doing it, but he's making that defense work and they just, they scheme it up and now you think, you know, another week of tape on Philip Rivers I think is going to help them where you, you saw what they want to do, right? It's just run the ball and keeping all the balls close because once he did try to push the ball downfield, you saw there's no power by behind the throws too much. So it's. It maybe I'm overthinking and we should be hammering this Niners team. But like I said, it's so early in the week here. I, I just want to make sure I'm not stepping on this, this niner side.
- [69:26]
Chad Millman
All right, look, we got a lot of games to review on Thursday once we get more intel on who's going to be playing in the games, once we get some feedback from the wise guys. Chad's choice was New England plus three. Simon says was the New York Football Giants plus three. But we're waiting on a lot of intel here because right now I do not want to go into Sunday betting the Browns, betting the Raiders betting betting the Giants, betting the Cardinals betting the Steelers betting the Browns. So hopefully we'll get some intel that will make us want to believe in some teams that we actually think have a chance to win those games on the following weekend. All right, this has been Sharper Square part of the Volume Podcast Network. We will be back on Sharper Square, YouTube and on the audio platforms on Thursday. We'll have our head to head battle. We'll do our brass balls bet of the week. So much more. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sherper Square. Like the video, subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, Review, subscribe. New B5 stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.
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Simon Hunter
Hey baby. Hey baby.
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Richard Sherman
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Sophie Cunningham
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Simon Hunter
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Simon Hunter
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Chad Millman
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