Sharp or Square NFL Week 16 Bets: Deep Dive & Key Takeaways

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Episode Date: December 16, 2025
Theme: NFL Week 16 Betting Preview—Breaking down every major matchup from a sharp vs. square angle, identifying betting traps, value sides, and contest-worthy picks.

Episode Overview

This episode is a comprehensive, game-by-game breakdown of the NFL Week 16 slate, focusing on finding sharp (wiseguy) plays versus square (public) bets. Hosts Chad Millman (media betting analyst) and Simon Hunter (professional bettor) dissect line movements, injury reports, and public/pro betting splits to help listeners outsmart the market and make more informed wagers for contests, survivor pools, and straight bets.

The conversation is candid and analytical, with recurring themes about betting psychology, overreactions, and spotting value in ugly underdogs. Chad and Simon also flag certain matchups as “Simon Says” or “Chad’s Choice”—their podcast’s signature contest picks.

Key Game-by-Game Breakdowns & Insights

TNF: Rams at Seahawks

Line: Rams -1 at Seahawks (rainy weather expected)

Sharp/Square Divide: Pros (wiseguys) are leaning Seahawks early; public consensus is on the Rams coming off dominant performances.
Simon: “They [the Rams] just won me a ton of money... I'm too in love with them.” (05:48)
Analysis: Simon likes the Rams’ run game in bad weather but urges patience due to sharp action and his own admitted bias.
Chad: Recognizes trap potential with everyone on Rams, suggests fading public but lacks a strong read.
Notable Moment (07:41): “The Rams have been [Sam Darnold’s] kryptonite... but I haven’t bet the game.”
Takeaway: No contest pick; both acknowledge discomfort and urge listeners to watch line movement for value.

Saturday Doubleheader

1. Eagles at Commanders (+6.5)

Chad: “All is well in Philadelphia right now... But Commanders are a tricky underdog spot.” (08:27)
Simon: Prefers Commanders (Mariota over Jaden Daniels for safety/end of season). Thinks pros will back them, but Eagles’ offense matches up well.
Betting Strategy: Lean Commanders if number stays above 6; Eagles less appealing at inflated numbers.

2. Packers at Bears (+1.5)

Initial Move: Line opened Packers -2.5, bet down to -1.5 after injuries.
Chad: Details Bears’ momentum and crowd energy but warns of heartbreak potential. “Last weekend as a sports fan, I had the Bears crush the Browns... I am expecting to be devastated by Saturday night.” (15:59)
Simon: Sees public overreaction to Packers’ injuries, but thinks number is now sharp. Leans Packers at this price though originally on Bears at +2.5.
Takeaway: Both advise against chasing the steam; highlight dangers of betting on narrative and public sentiment.

Sunday Slate

Chiefs at Titans (-3.5 after Mahomes injury)

Market note: Line moved only 7 points after Mahomes ruled out (Simon values him at 10 points).
Simon: “I’ll avoid it like the plague... I don’t know if I want to be involved in the game without Mahomes.” (18:53)
Chad: Agrees, doubts any contest value without the GOAT QB.

Vikings at Giants (+3) — “Simon Says” Contest Pick

Square/Sharp: Public all over Minnesota and young QB JJ McCarthy after two wins.
Simon: “Give me the Giants plus three. I want to play a game. Simon says...” (20:54)
Analysis: Fully expect a letdown from Minny, see value in ugly Giants off a string of misfortune.

Bucs at Panthers (+3)

Sharp/Square: Pro money on Tampa, public on Carolina.
Simon: “I’m on the Panthers, but I wish this was three and a half... Especially at plus three, that’s such a key number.” (30:56)
Chad: “Bryce Young has the most fourth quarter comeback wins since 2023... He always keeps dogs in play late.” (31:52)
Betting Note: Wait for potential +3.5 before betting Panthers.

Jets at Saints (-4)

Big Stat: Simon has huge futures on Tyler Shuck for OROY after touting him at 200/1. (33:05)
Simon: Sees value fading Tyler Shuck as a home favorite here, likes Jets if they get to +4.5 or +5.
Chad: “I love the Jets. ...Just playing the number and how stupid football is.” (35:36)

Chargers at Cowboys (-1.5)

Sharps/Public: Pros hammering Dallas; public hammering Chargers.
Simon: “Professionals are hammering Dallas and the public... the Chargers. ...I can’t imagine betting six figures into either side right now.” (37:48)
Takeaway: Stay away until there’s a better sense of group positions and clarity of Cowboys’ defensive performance.

Browns (+10) at Bills

Chad: “Can you do Cleveland +10 at home against the Buffalo Bills?... We’re going to bet the Browns; it doesn’t matter.” (39:24)
Simon: Worried that Browns’ defense has given up, urges caution even on a big number.
Conclusion: Even ugly dogs have limits; both may abandon pick by the weekend.

Bengals (+1) at Dolphins

Stat: Teams shut out last week are 6-0 ATS the following week in 2025.
Simon: “I’m kind of interested in taking Joe Burrow after an embarrassing loss... Maybe I should just take the over, but if I have to give a side I’ll take Joe Burrow.” (45:14)
Chad: “That stat is now 6-0, I think this season.” (43:26)

Falcons at Cardinals (+2.5)

Simon: “Arizona have quit in many ways... but I just have to play the number... I think you’re gonna get three, three and a half as the week goes.” (53:34)
Chad: Warnings about trusting Brissett/Cardinals just because of past competence early in season. Cautious lean only.

Steelers (+7) at Lions

Chad: “Rah rah Mike Tomlin spot is a huge underdog on the road... It’s hard to walk away from that one.” (55:05)
Simon: Notes he wanted to be on Detroit, but number inflated; leans Steelers plus the points reluctantly.

Jaguars (+3) at Broncos

Both hosts confess: Can’t quit fading Bo Nix; model actually favors Denver but gut likes Jags.
Simon: “Maybe I’m missing the mark here... but I can’t believe I feel more confident in this Jaguars team.” (59:27)

Raiders (+14.5) at Texans

Classic spot: All logic says take Raiders in huge dog scenario after Texans’ blowouts.
Simon: Betting Vegas ML again, looks for an upset. Urges patience; don’t force it into contest yet.

Patriots (+3) at Ravens — “Chad’s Choice” Contest Pick

Chad: “I’m saying it now. Chad’s choice... it’s going to be the New England Patriots.” (62:26)
Analysis: Classic buy-low/sell-high spot after Pats blown lead vs. Bills and Ravens’ own struggles.
Simon: “This is the type of game that gets [Drake Maye] right back into [MVP debates] if he wins.” (64:28)
Strategy: Prefer to wait for injury news but see sharp value at +3.

49ers (-5.5) at Colts

Both hosts: Lean Niners as line creeps up; waiting to see if sharp money comes for Colts.
Simon: “Maybe I’m overthinking and we should be hammering this Niners team... but it’s so early in the week.” (67:31)
Chad: Loves SF’s superior offense and adjustment with Rivers at QB for Colts.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On The Bears:
“This is a hundred percent the game where the Bears break all of our hearts. ...I am expecting to be devastated by Saturday night. I don’t expect the Bears to win this game.” — Chad Millman (15:59)
On Tyler Shuck Futures:
“If [Tyler Shuck] wins, Simon might win a million dollars... He’s now 16 to one... You could've had him at 200-1.” — Chad & Simon Banter (33:05–35:36)
On Betting Ugly Dogs:
“I just said...don’t we have to take the Raiders? ...Right now I think our five is going to be the Giants, the Jets, Cleveland, the Raiders, the Cardinals. It’s going to be a fucking blast on Sunday.” — Chad Millman (61:56)
On Prime Time Trap Games:
“It reminds me...of the Dallas Vikings game...prime time trap written all over it.” — Simon Hunter (67:31)
On Sharp/Square Pollination:
“Professionals are hammering Dallas and the public... the Chargers. ...I can’t imagine betting six figures into either side right now.” — Simon (37:48)
On Recency & Overreaction:
“This number [Bears/Packers]... just feels like too much of an overcorrection.” — Chad Millman (13:58)
On Betting Conflicted Numbers:
“We have to acknowledge it’s a dog we’re not going to avoid. Which means on Sunday we have to avoid it.” — Chad (41:22)

“Simon Says” & “Chad’s Choice” Contest Picks

Simon Says: New York Giants +3 vs. Vikings (23:07)
Chad’s Choice: New England Patriots +3 at Ravens (62:26)

Timestamps for Notable Segments

Rams-Seahawks & Recency Bias: 03:20–08:27
Eagles-Commanders/Bears-Packers Therapy Session: 08:27–17:36
Chiefs-Titans Without Mahomes: 17:44–19:07
Giants-Vikings (Contest Pick Explainer): 20:54–23:07
Jets-Saints & OROY Odds Story: 33:05–35:36
Cowboys-Chargers (Sharp/Public Breakdown): 37:48–39:24
Difficult Dogs Dilemma (Browns, Raiders, Cardinals): 39:24–42:37, 61:56
Primetime: Pats-Ravens (Chad's Choice): 62:26
Niners-Colts (Prime Time Trap): 66:26–69:25
Final Recap & Outlook: 69:25–End

Episode’s Betting Philosophy Reminders

Don’t blindly trust trends or public steam—context and timing are everything.
Professional bettors often take early bad numbers for position; follow line movement for clues.
Ugly, uncomfortable underdogs hold value late in the season against public darlings/off overreactions.
Market is sharpest on big standalone TV games.
“We’re always going to talk ourselves into one dog we shouldn’t touch.” (Chad)

Summary Takeaway

Chad and Simon deliver a fast-moving, detail-rich week 16 preview. Their main advice: trust your process, don’t chase steam or narratives, and beware of over-corrected lines. Key picks are Giants +3 (Simon) and Patriots +3 (Chad), but most bets require patience for late-week intel and shifting numbers. Their candor about betting psychology and sharp-square dynamics gives listeners deep insight into making smarter NFL picks.

For weekly contest picks and more in-depth breakdowns, tune in Thursday for their final card.

Feedback is always a gift—rate, review, and subscribe!

Sharp or Square NFL Week 16 Bets: Deep Dive & Key Takeaways

Episode Overview

Key Game-by-Game Breakdowns & Insights

TNF: Rams at Seahawks

Line: Rams -1 at Seahawks (rainy weather expected)

Sharp/Square Divide: Pros (wiseguys) are leaning Seahawks early; public consensus is on the Rams coming off dominant performances.
Simon: “They [the Rams] just won me a ton of money... I'm too in love with them.” (05:48)
Analysis: Simon likes the Rams’ run game in bad weather but urges patience due to sharp action and his own admitted bias.
Chad: Recognizes trap potential with everyone on Rams, suggests fading public but lacks a strong read.
Notable Moment (07:41): “The Rams have been [Sam Darnold’s] kryptonite... but I haven’t bet the game.”
Takeaway: No contest pick; both acknowledge discomfort and urge listeners to watch line movement for value.

Saturday Doubleheader

1. Eagles at Commanders (+6.5)

Chad: “All is well in Philadelphia right now... But Commanders are a tricky underdog spot.” (08:27)
Simon: Prefers Commanders (Mariota over Jaden Daniels for safety/end of season). Thinks pros will back them, but Eagles’ offense matches up well.
Betting Strategy: Lean Commanders if number stays above 6; Eagles less appealing at inflated numbers.

2. Packers at Bears (+1.5)

Initial Move: Line opened Packers -2.5, bet down to -1.5 after injuries.
Chad: Details Bears’ momentum and crowd energy but warns of heartbreak potential. “Last weekend as a sports fan, I had the Bears crush the Browns... I am expecting to be devastated by Saturday night.” (15:59)
Simon: Sees public overreaction to Packers’ injuries, but thinks number is now sharp. Leans Packers at this price though originally on Bears at +2.5.
Takeaway: Both advise against chasing the steam; highlight dangers of betting on narrative and public sentiment.

Sunday Slate

Chiefs at Titans (-3.5 after Mahomes injury)

Market note: Line moved only 7 points after Mahomes ruled out (Simon values him at 10 points).
Simon: “I’ll avoid it like the plague... I don’t know if I want to be involved in the game without Mahomes.” (18:53)
Chad: Agrees, doubts any contest value without the GOAT QB.

Vikings at Giants (+3) — “Simon Says” Contest Pick

Square/Sharp: Public all over Minnesota and young QB JJ McCarthy after two wins.
Simon: “Give me the Giants plus three. I want to play a game. Simon says...” (20:54)
Analysis: Fully expect a letdown from Minny, see value in ugly Giants off a string of misfortune.

Bucs at Panthers (+3)

Sharp/Square: Pro money on Tampa, public on Carolina.
Simon: “I’m on the Panthers, but I wish this was three and a half... Especially at plus three, that’s such a key number.” (30:56)
Chad: “Bryce Young has the most fourth quarter comeback wins since 2023... He always keeps dogs in play late.” (31:52)
Betting Note: Wait for potential +3.5 before betting Panthers.

Jets at Saints (-4)

Big Stat: Simon has huge futures on Tyler Shuck for OROY after touting him at 200/1. (33:05)
Simon: Sees value fading Tyler Shuck as a home favorite here, likes Jets if they get to +4.5 or +5.
Chad: “I love the Jets. ...Just playing the number and how stupid football is.” (35:36)

Chargers at Cowboys (-1.5)

Sharps/Public: Pros hammering Dallas; public hammering Chargers.
Simon: “Professionals are hammering Dallas and the public... the Chargers. ...I can’t imagine betting six figures into either side right now.” (37:48)
Takeaway: Stay away until there’s a better sense of group positions and clarity of Cowboys’ defensive performance.

Browns (+10) at Bills

Chad: “Can you do Cleveland +10 at home against the Buffalo Bills?... We’re going to bet the Browns; it doesn’t matter.” (39:24)
Simon: Worried that Browns’ defense has given up, urges caution even on a big number.
Conclusion: Even ugly dogs have limits; both may abandon pick by the weekend.

Bengals (+1) at Dolphins

Stat: Teams shut out last week are 6-0 ATS the following week in 2025.
Simon: “I’m kind of interested in taking Joe Burrow after an embarrassing loss... Maybe I should just take the over, but if I have to give a side I’ll take Joe Burrow.” (45:14)
Chad: “That stat is now 6-0, I think this season.” (43:26)

Falcons at Cardinals (+2.5)

Simon: “Arizona have quit in many ways... but I just have to play the number... I think you’re gonna get three, three and a half as the week goes.” (53:34)
Chad: Warnings about trusting Brissett/Cardinals just because of past competence early in season. Cautious lean only.

Steelers (+7) at Lions

Chad: “Rah rah Mike Tomlin spot is a huge underdog on the road... It’s hard to walk away from that one.” (55:05)
Simon: Notes he wanted to be on Detroit, but number inflated; leans Steelers plus the points reluctantly.

Jaguars (+3) at Broncos

Both hosts confess: Can’t quit fading Bo Nix; model actually favors Denver but gut likes Jags.
Simon: “Maybe I’m missing the mark here... but I can’t believe I feel more confident in this Jaguars team.” (59:27)

Raiders (+14.5) at Texans

Classic spot: All logic says take Raiders in huge dog scenario after Texans’ blowouts.
Simon: Betting Vegas ML again, looks for an upset. Urges patience; don’t force it into contest yet.

Patriots (+3) at Ravens — “Chad’s Choice” Contest Pick

Chad: “I’m saying it now. Chad’s choice... it’s going to be the New England Patriots.” (62:26)
Analysis: Classic buy-low/sell-high spot after Pats blown lead vs. Bills and Ravens’ own struggles.
Simon: “This is the type of game that gets [Drake Maye] right back into [MVP debates] if he wins.” (64:28)
Strategy: Prefer to wait for injury news but see sharp value at +3.

49ers (-5.5) at Colts

Both hosts: Lean Niners as line creeps up; waiting to see if sharp money comes for Colts.
Simon: “Maybe I’m overthinking and we should be hammering this Niners team... but it’s so early in the week.” (67:31)
Chad: Loves SF’s superior offense and adjustment with Rivers at QB for Colts.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On The Bears:
“This is a hundred percent the game where the Bears break all of our hearts. ...I am expecting to be devastated by Saturday night. I don’t expect the Bears to win this game.” — Chad Millman (15:59)
On Tyler Shuck Futures:
“If [Tyler Shuck] wins, Simon might win a million dollars... He’s now 16 to one... You could've had him at 200-1.” — Chad & Simon Banter (33:05–35:36)
On Betting Ugly Dogs:
“I just said...don’t we have to take the Raiders? ...Right now I think our five is going to be the Giants, the Jets, Cleveland, the Raiders, the Cardinals. It’s going to be a fucking blast on Sunday.” — Chad Millman (61:56)
On Prime Time Trap Games:
“It reminds me...of the Dallas Vikings game...prime time trap written all over it.” — Simon Hunter (67:31)
On Sharp/Square Pollination:
“Professionals are hammering Dallas and the public... the Chargers. ...I can’t imagine betting six figures into either side right now.” — Simon (37:48)
On Recency & Overreaction:
“This number [Bears/Packers]... just feels like too much of an overcorrection.” — Chad Millman (13:58)
On Betting Conflicted Numbers:
“We have to acknowledge it’s a dog we’re not going to avoid. Which means on Sunday we have to avoid it.” — Chad (41:22)

“Simon Says” & “Chad’s Choice” Contest Picks

Simon Says: New York Giants +3 vs. Vikings (23:07)
Chad’s Choice: New England Patriots +3 at Ravens (62:26)

Timestamps for Notable Segments

Rams-Seahawks & Recency Bias: 03:20–08:27
Eagles-Commanders/Bears-Packers Therapy Session: 08:27–17:36
Chiefs-Titans Without Mahomes: 17:44–19:07
Giants-Vikings (Contest Pick Explainer): 20:54–23:07
Jets-Saints & OROY Odds Story: 33:05–35:36
Cowboys-Chargers (Sharp/Public Breakdown): 37:48–39:24
Difficult Dogs Dilemma (Browns, Raiders, Cardinals): 39:24–42:37, 61:56
Primetime: Pats-Ravens (Chad's Choice): 62:26
Niners-Colts (Prime Time Trap): 66:26–69:25
Final Recap & Outlook: 69:25–End

Episode’s Betting Philosophy Reminders

Don’t blindly trust trends or public steam—context and timing are everything.
Professional bettors often take early bad numbers for position; follow line movement for clues.
Ugly, uncomfortable underdogs hold value late in the season against public darlings/off overreactions.
Market is sharpest on big standalone TV games.
“We’re always going to talk ourselves into one dog we shouldn’t touch.” (Chad)

Summary Takeaway

For weekly contest picks and more in-depth breakdowns, tune in Thursday for their final card.

Feedback is always a gift—rate, review, and subscribe!

NFL Week 16 Bets: Rams-Seahawks, Patriots-Ravens, Niners-Colts, Bucs-Panthers, Jaguars-Broncos and more

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Summary

Sharp or Square NFL Week 16 Bets: Deep Dive & Key Takeaways

Episode Overview

Key Game-by-Game Breakdowns & Insights

TNF: Rams at Seahawks

Saturday Doubleheader

1. Eagles at Commanders (+6.5)

2. Packers at Bears (+1.5)

Sunday Slate

Chiefs at Titans (-3.5 after Mahomes injury)

Vikings at Giants (+3) — “Simon Says” Contest Pick

Bucs at Panthers (+3)

Jets at Saints (-4)

Chargers at Cowboys (-1.5)

Browns (+10) at Bills

Bengals (+1) at Dolphins

Falcons at Cardinals (+2.5)

Steelers (+7) at Lions

Jaguars (+3) at Broncos

Raiders (+14.5) at Texans

Patriots (+3) at Ravens — “Chad’s Choice” Contest Pick

49ers (-5.5) at Colts

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

“Simon Says” & “Chad’s Choice” Contest Picks

Timestamps for Notable Segments

Episode’s Betting Philosophy Reminders

Summary Takeaway

Summary

Sharp or Square NFL Week 16 Bets: Deep Dive & Key Takeaways

Episode Overview

Key Game-by-Game Breakdowns & Insights

TNF: Rams at Seahawks

Saturday Doubleheader

1. Eagles at Commanders (+6.5)

2. Packers at Bears (+1.5)

Sunday Slate

Chiefs at Titans (-3.5 after Mahomes injury)

Vikings at Giants (+3) — “Simon Says” Contest Pick

Bucs at Panthers (+3)

Jets at Saints (-4)

Chargers at Cowboys (-1.5)

Browns (+10) at Bills

Bengals (+1) at Dolphins

Falcons at Cardinals (+2.5)

Steelers (+7) at Lions

Jaguars (+3) at Broncos

Raiders (+14.5) at Texans

Patriots (+3) at Ravens — “Chad’s Choice” Contest Pick

49ers (-5.5) at Colts

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

“Simon Says” & “Chad’s Choice” Contest Picks

Timestamps for Notable Segments

Episode’s Betting Philosophy Reminders

Summary Takeaway