Sharp or Square – NFL Week 16 Reaction

Podcast: Sharp or Square (iHeartPodcasts, The Volume)
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Episode Date: December 22, 2025
Episode Focus: Breaking down Week 16 NFL betting results, insights, and wise-guy angles on key games including Bills-Browns, Jaguars-Broncos, Bucs-Panthers, Jets-Saints, Chargers-Cowboys, and more.

Episode Overview

In this fast-paced, analysis-rich episode, hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter review their picks and betting strategy for the crucial Week 16 NFL games, dissecting what went right (and wrong) in their contest selections. They focus on sharp/square betting moves, upsets, key player performances, and the implications for playoff races and the upcoming week’s odds. The hosts are candid, occasionally exasperated, and as always, deeply invested in both their bets and the stories around each game.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Recap of Their Betting Day & Lynchpins (03:34-06:11)

• Record: Entered the show 2–1 with the Detroit Lions hanging in their last contest pick; wins with Panthers and Jaguars, losses with Bills and likely the Lions.
• Quote: "As usual, we are two in one, hanging on to a very thin thread of hope with the Detroit Lions." – Chad (04:03)

2. Deep Dive: Panthers (+3.5) Home Upset Over Buccaneers (06:11-11:32)

• Hosts’ Long-Awaited Bet: The Panthers “team of destiny” for Chad and Simon this year; they’d waited for the right spot and felt vindicated.
• Bryce Young’s Poise: Multiple instances of composure under pressure, clutch throws, key late drive.
• Rookie Standout: Tetaroa McMillan’s athleticism and critical catches.
• Quote: "Bryce Young continues to just be impressive under pressure... [and] Tetaroa McMillan was making unbelievable catches today." – Chad (06:48)
• Simon’s Outlook: Thinks Panthers are fighting each week, suggesting to look for value on them as underdogs again next week at home versus the Seahawks.
• Memorable Sequence: Chad recounts Young’s game-winning drive, including a back-shoulder throw and Sanders' touchdown reception (09:31-10:50).

3. Bills (-10.5) Failing to Cover v. Browns – Mistakes, Injuries & Regrets (11:32-16:59)

• Takeaways: Bills let Browns stay within the number despite domination—missed XP and a dropped TD in the end zone proved costly.
• Regret Betting the Public Side: Simon calls their decision to side with the “most public team” a violation of their usual sharp principle.
• Quote: "I was never gonna help myself... the Bills were the most public side, so usually... we blindly fade, especially in that spot." – Simon (13:12)
• Injuries: Quinton Judkins and Shador Sanders both left due to injuries, impacting the Browns' competitiveness and the flow of the game.
• Judgment: Both agree they should have covered but could only blame themselves for not sticking to their sharper instincts.

4. Jaguars (+3.5) Statement Win at Denver, Trevor Lawrence’s Emergence (16:59-23:15)

• Sharp-Square Divide: Wiseguys came in on Broncos—the hosts stuck with the Jags and were rewarded.
• Trevor Lawrence MVP Discussion: Simon posits a plausible, if unlikely, MVP path due to Lawrence’s hot streak, noting changed odds.
• Quote: "There is a path. They get the one seed, he could somehow... If Stafford doesn't get the one seed... there is an avenue." – Simon (18:45)
• Bo Nix’s Struggles: Jags’ defense neutralized the threat, never let Denver sneak back.
• Analysis: “Brilliant” late-game scramble and conversion by Lawrence, who appears to finally be putting it together, with both hosts admitting renewed optimism.

5. Lions Collapse v. Steelers, Playoff Window Shrinking (23:18-29:41)

• Key Play: Fluky Hail Mary–like play at the half radically shifted momentum; Lions' offense sputtered in the second half, including a key safety.
• Tomlin's “Juju": Simon bemoans betting against a classic Mike Tomlin trap/underdog spot.
• Quote: "Pittsburgh wins. They don't make sense... Detroit outplayed them in every way. You know, stupid penalties or... it was one of those games." – Simon (25:00)
• Frustration with Offensive Line: Chad cites OL issues, missed assignments (mis-snapped ball leading to a safety), and Goff/Romo “MVP” talk—“bizarre.”
• Playoff Implications: Both see window closing for Detroit; “It’s a Bears division.”

6. Notable Performances and Rookie Leaders (36:27-39:06)

• Saints-Jets: Tyler Shough’s continued strong play raises Rookie of the Year questions.
• McMillan Still ROY Front-runner: Despite Shough’s surge.
• MVP Odds Updates: Trevor Lawrence down to 40-1 (even lower as the show airs), Kayla Williams climbing; both hosts muse on the MVP narratives, noting the late-season surges.

7. Game Selection Second-Guessing & Missed Opportunities (41:46-44:51)

• Giants' Disaster: Avoided Giants at less than +3, a “train wreck” game.
• Raiders Trend: Missed a valuable spot on Vegas, which continues a historical trend of teams covering after previous shutouts.
• Titans Value Play: Chad noted the Chiefs’ poor depth and injuries but only took Titans ML as a flyer.

8. Bottom-Feeder Bowl and Draft Implications (47:06-47:36)

• Giants, Raiders, Titans: Speculation about top draft positioning, intriguing trade targets (e.g., Fernando Mendoza).
• Upcoming Game: Giants vs. Raiders next week—a de facto draft lottery game.

Notable Quotes & Moments

| Timestamp | Quote | Speaker | |-----------|-------|---------| | 06:48 | “Bryce Young continues to just be impressive under pressure... and Tetaroa McMillan was making unbelievable catches today.” | Chad | | 13:12 | “I was never gonna help myself... the Bills were the most public side, so usually... we blindly fade, especially in that spot.” | Simon | | 18:45 | “There is a path. They get the one seed, he could somehow... If Stafford doesn't get the one seed... there is an avenue.” | Simon | | 25:00 | “Pittsburgh wins. They don't make sense... Detroit outplayed them in every way... it was one of those games.” | Simon | | 50:26 | “That drive was the ball game and they could not get off the field. So shame on the Detroit Lions.” | Chad | | 59:17 | “I do my best not to bring it to the show because people hate Eagles fans. We're probably going to knock that around one but I believe we're going to win the super bowl. Obviously... this could be peak.” | Simon |

Fun Segments

Shame of the Week (48:26)

• Simon: Dallas Cowboys for “another failure of a season... never in the amount of times I heard Dak is better than Jalen Hurts... excuses get pretty thin.”
• Chad: Detroit Lions for “so many chances to get off the field... against a 42-year-old quarterback... That was their season. It’s over.”

Hero of the Week (55:56)

• Simon: Philadelphia Eagles clinching NFC East, “best run of my lifetime.”
• Chad: Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears) after clinching playoff spot and leading a comeback win: “Caleb Williams, hero of the week. Go Bears.” (61:27)

Looking Ahead – Early Thoughts on Week 17 Lines (62:05-66:16)

• Eye-Catchers:
  • Panthers +7.5 vs. Seahawks: Chad likes the dog.
  • Colts +7 vs. Jaguars: Simon leaning toward another sharp-side play.
  • Bears +3 vs. 49ers: Both intrigued by Bears toughness at home.
  • Saints -2 vs. Titans: Simon, a “Shock truther,” may back the Saints; Chad threatens to go the other way.
• Sharp Principles: Continue to find value in ugly underdogs and beware late-season check-outs from eliminated teams.

Memorable Moments

• Audience drawn into real-time Lions-Steelers ending—hosts toggling between analysis and emotionally charged updates.
• Chad’s passionate Bears playoff clinching recap; Simon’s joy (and stats) for Eagles finally going back-to-back in the NFC East.
• The hosts’ self-deprecation about missing the “easy” sharp bets and openly questioning their process.

Strategic Betting Takeaways

• Don’t Get Hooked on Lines: Value the whole number, but don’t let loss aversion keep you off a better pick elsewhere.
• Fade the Public, Especially on Big Faves: Old lesson re-learned the hard way with Bills and Lions.
• Don’t Overthink Bottom-Feeder Motivation: Teams like the Panthers and Raiders still have fight and betting value late in the season.

Final Bets Recap (66:11)

• Week 16:
  • Losses: Lions -6.5, Bills -10.5
  • Wins: Jaguars +3.5, Panthers +3.5
  • TBD: Patriots +3.5 vs. Ravens (late game)

Tone:
Conversational, slightly exasperated but also ebullient and passionate. Plenty of wisecracking, some moments of real betting frustration, and lots of love for football and the “sharp” process—even when it doesn’t pay off.

For listeners: If you missed the episode, you’ve got every big betting decision, sharp/square disagreement, and playoff ripple covered here—plus the hosts’ irrepressible personality and a full preview of what’s shaping up as a wild Week 17.