Sharp or Square — NFL Week 17 Bets: Lions-Vikings, Broncos-Chiefs, Texans-Chargers, Ravens-Packers, Eagles-Bills and More

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: December 23, 2025
Network: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume

Episode Overview

This week on Sharp or Square, betting expert Chad Millman and pro sports gambler Simon Hunter break down a fraught Week 17 NFL slate, jammed with backup (even third-string) quarterbacks and perplexing spreads due to injuries and playoff motivations. Navigating Christmas games, divisional showdowns, and must-win spots, Chad and Simon dig into which bets are sharp (wiseguy-backed) versus which are square (public-heavy and risky), highlight actionable trends, and offer honest advice on bets to avoid. Expect stats deep-dives, contrarian angles, and plenty of betting wisdom for a holiday schedule full of uncertainty.

Key Discussion Points & Game Breakdowns

Opening Banter (03:13–05:53)

• Chad laments getting sick now that his kids are home, but celebrates betting wins, especially on the Patriots—didn't sweat, just enjoyed family time.
• “I had a full 85-year-old evening on Sunday night, played gin, went to bed, woke up, and the Patriots had won.” — Chad (04:54)

Christmas Day Games: Triple-Backup QB Chaos

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders (+6.5)

Discussion (06:09–08:25)

• Washington starting Josh Johnson; number moved from 4.5 to 6.5 with Cowboys out of playoffs.
• Simon warns: “It needs to get way up there. This is a quarterback I thought was totally out of the league. Like just not good.”
• Sharp insight: Cowboys are 14-1 first-half overs!
• Chad intrigued: “I wouldn't mind a little first half sweat while I'm heading to the city.” (08:25)

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (+6)

Discussion (08:25–11:17)

• Minnesota downgrades to third-string QB Max Brosmer. Lions failed last week as favorites.
• Simon conflicted: “Are they really six points better than Minnesota? ...I know I’m supposed to take Minnesota but I’m really tempted to just take the Lions ... this ain't the old Lions, this is the new Lions. We have to fade them here.” (10:35)
• Detroit’s Campbell/Goff after a loss are 33-14 ATS in this exact spot, but the betting enthusiasm is tepid.

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs (+13)

Discussion (12:01–16:26)

• Gardner Minshew out for KC, Chris Oladokun (?) likely starting.
• Chiefs could be incentivized to lose for a high draft pick.
• Simon: “They are 7-0 as a home dog of above 9 points [since the '80s] ...But this game scares the hell out of me.” (15:00)
• Chad pitches the Dallas/Detroit/Denver moneyline parlay as a fun but “sucker Christmas bet.”

Saturday Slate & Pick Features

Houston Texans @ LA Chargers (-2)

Chad’s Choice — Presented by Hard Rock Bet
Discussion (16:37–18:52)

• Chad: “I would just rather bet this defense as an underdog than take Justin Herbert as a favorite... To me, this is a great matchup for the Houston Texans. Love it.” (17:31)
• Simon agrees: “Herbert against winning teams... just seems like he struggles. Last four years he’s 9-15 straight up against teams above .500.” (17:55)
• Line trending lower; sharp money on Houston.

Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers (-2.5)

Discussion (18:52–23:31)

• Chad notes Ravens locker-room turmoil; unsure if Lamar Jackson is playing.
• Simon: “0-7 this season when they allow 20+ points... The only other teams that are winless when they allow 20 or more? Raiders, Browns, Giants. That’s terrible company.” (21:08)
• Lean to the Packers due to Ravens’ dysfunction and unknown QB situation.

Seattle Seahawks (-7) @ Carolina Panthers

Simon Says
Discussion (24:52–28:40)

• Simon: “I knew right away this was gonna be the biggest public dog of the week. The public is gonna be all over the Panthers.” (25:52)
• Backs Seattle: “Sam Darnold is 12-0 straight up, 9-3 ATS as a favorite of 6+ points in his career. And Seattle is a much better road team than people think.”
• Adds, “If you want to know what the professionals are on, it’ll be Seattle—public’s on Carolina.”

Indianapolis Colts (+6.5) vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Discussion (29:11–34:25)

• Chad wants to bet Colts again despite the blowout loss; both agree this is a tricky “let-down” spot for Jags.
• Simon recites horror ATS trends for Colts vs Jaguars since 2015 but says the number (under 7) is telling.
• “They're begging me to take the Colts... I think I’m supposed to bet Jaguars, but anything under seven feels like it’s a Jags number,” Simon.

Other Sunday Action

Tennessee Titans (+2.5) vs New Orleans Saints

Discussion (39:49–42:44)

• Both note Titans are now a covering machine since coach change; sharp money likes them.
• “This is a not, this is not where you want to be back in the Saints team. ...The pros they're all over the Titans.” — Simon (41:59)

Cincinnati Bengals (-7) vs Arizona Cardinals

Discussion (43:46–44:36)

• Both lean Bengals, noting improvement despite season being “over”; Arizona can’t be trusted.

Cleveland Browns (-3.5) vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Discussion (44:36–46:56)

• Chad: “Hold your nose, but I don't see it being one of our final five.”
• Simon, after researching past shows: “We've blindly bet this and it’s been honestly working out for us.” Trend is Browns at home vs Steelers is the spot.

New England Patriots (-13) @ NY Jets

Discussion (48:06–50:28)

• Patriots dealing with injuries, but Jets’ offense is a disaster.
• Simon: “If you’re betting the Jets, you’re literally betting on a miracle ... Patriots are better than them in every, every way.” (48:54)
• Likes Patriots at anything under 14.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins

Discussion (50:34–52:47)

• Chad is non-committal, notes Dolphins as an ugly but necessary bet.
• Simon: “The Bucs have been ... terrible. ...I’m not putting real money into this Dolphins team that looked like they totally quit last week, but for my pick pools I have to make a pick.” (52:50)

NY Giants @ Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5)

Discussion (53:04–56:15)

• Both discuss “tank motivation” and franchise needs; unclear who will try to win.
• Simon: “Home team is 4-0 straight up in this exact historical spot. ...Under three at home, Raiders. If this is not the time we take them in the contest, I don’t know when there is.” (54:09)

Philadelphia Eagles @ Buffalo Bills (-2.5, now -1.5)

Discussion (59:23–61:11)

• Chad: “I like the Bills here. I don’t think the Eagles can stop their run game. I think the Bills have more to play for. ...I'm surprised the number is moving against them.”
• Simon: “Honestly, I see no reason why the Eagles would even try in this game... The pros, they're coming in heavy on this Eagles side...” (59:51)
• Both confused by line movement, but like Bills at -1.5.

Primetime Spotlight

Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers (-3)

Discussion (62:15–65:35)

• Chad: “It feels like the exact time you want to fade the Niners.”
• Simon: “I feel like we're supposed to be betting the Bears ... but Brock Purdy ... is 5-0 straight up and against the spread since returning from injury.” (63:51)
• Notes the spot favors Bears off extended rest vs Niners’ short week, but all trends say otherwise.

Atlanta Falcons @ LA Rams (-8) [Monday Night]

Discussion (65:35–69:13)

• Despite sharp money on Falcons, Simon is unwavering: “McVay in December ... is the best coach since he entered the league in 2017. ...I'm going to keep riding. I just love McVay here.” (67:01)
• Chad agrees number is larger than expected but sees reason for support.

Notable Trends & Betting Stats Referenced

• Cowboys: 14-1 to the first half over this season (07:47)
• Lions under Campbell/Goff: 33-14 ATS after a loss (10:04)
• Chiefs: 7 straight non-covers again this year, same streak as last season (13:46)
• Herbert as a favorite vs. winning teams: 9-15 SU last 4 years (17:55)
• Ravens: 0-7 when allowing 20+ points; company includes only league’s worst teams (21:08)
• Sam Darnold as big favorite: 12-0 SU, 9-3 ATS as 6+ pt fav (26:40)
• Colts vs Jags since '15: 3-17-1 ATS (32:41)
• Browns at home vs Steelers: 5-1 SU, 3-game ATS streak (44:49)
• Raiders in home 'tanking' scenarios: Home side 4-0 SU since 1990 (54:09)
• McVay off Dec. loss: 32-19 ATS overall; 8-4 ATS at night post-loss (67:01)

Best Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “We’re going to review the entire slate. If you want our final Sunday picks, you got to watch the Sunday morning show... We got a whole crapload of shitty backup QB Christmas day games.” - Chad (05:02, 05:53)
• “I'm going to throw Denver in a 5.5 tease ... If I have to take the number straight, I gave you that trend—You expect the Chiefs to cover that type of big number—so I’ll, sneakily, I’ll take the Chiefs plus 13.5.” - Simon (15:00)
• “If you want to know what the professionals are on, it’ll be Seattle—public’s on Carolina.” - Simon (28:11)
• “The only surprise to me is that it hasn't gotten to seven. I think the public will come in on the Jags at some point this week...” - Chad (34:25)
• “I'm banned from betting Tennessee Titan games. So I'm not gonna, not gonna give out a side. But if I was going to, I'd be joining Chad on Tennessee. That's the sharp side.” - Simon (42:44)
• “If you’re betting the Jets, you’re literally betting on a miracle ...The Patriots are better than them in every, every way.” - Simon (48:54)
• “If this is not the time we take them [Raiders] in the contest, I don’t know when there is.” - Simon (54:09)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Opening/COVID Family Talk/Patriots Win: 03:14–05:53
• Cowboys-Commanders (Christmas): 06:09–08:25
• Lions-Vikings: 08:25–11:17
• Broncos-Chiefs: 12:01–16:26
• Texans-Chargers: 16:37–18:52
• Ravens-Packers: 18:52–23:31
• Seahawks-Panthers (Simon Says): 24:52–28:40
• Colts-Jaguars: 29:11–34:25
• Titans-Saints: 39:49–42:44
• Bengals-Cardinals: 43:46–44:36
• Browns-Steelers: 44:36–46:56
• Patriots-Jets: 48:06–50:28
• Bucs-Dolphins: 50:34–52:47
• Giants-Raiders: 53:04–56:15
• Eagles-Bills: 59:23–61:11
• Bears-49ers/MNF Primetime: 62:15–65:35
• Falcons-Rams (MNF): 65:35–69:13

Picks & Lean Summaries

Simon Says: Seattle Seahawks -7 at Carolina
Chad’s Choice: Houston Texans +2 (or ML if available)

Leans & Fade Zones:

• Fade Lions as big road favs with third-string QB for Vikings.
• Take Dallas first-half over, but tread carefully with sides.
• Sharp money on Titans, Browns, Bills, and Raiders.
• Bengals, Dolphins, and Rams liked official, but not with full conviction.

Final Takeaway

A week defined by wild quarterback situations, shifting numbers, and sharp-vs-public splits. Chad and Simon advocate digging into injury news, ebbs and flows of motivation, and staying disciplined with contest picks—not chasing too-steep numbers. The best reason to bet? Knowing where the probability and sharp edge lies, not just chasing the Christmas narrative.

“We know, we know what to do here so they can't get us. ... Simon, they can’t get us. You and I, we’re too smart for them.”

—Chad Millman (28:40)

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