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Sharp or Square
NFL Week 17 Bets: Lions-Vikings, Broncos-Chiefs, Texans-Chargers, Ravens-Packers, Eagles-Bills and more
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- [00:00]
Sophie Cunningham
This is an iHeart podcast guaranteed human.
- [00:05]
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- [00:35]
Sophie Cunningham
This is Sophie Cunningham from Show Me Something do you know the symptoms of moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea, or osa, in adults with obesity? They may be happening to you without you knowing. If anyone has ever said you snored loudly, or if you spend your days fighting off excessive tiredness, irritability and concentration issues, it may be due to osa. OSA is a serious condition where your airway partially or completely collapses during sleep, which may cause breathing interrupting interruptions and oxygen deprivation. Learn more at. Don't sleep on osa.com this information is provided by Lilly, a medicine company.
- [01:13]
Chad Millman
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- [01:41]
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- [02:33]
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- [02:39]
Total Wireless Advertiser
Touchdown and catch.
- [02:40]
Sports Promo Announcer
History in the making.
- [02:44]
Simon Hunter
Fox one We Live for live streaming now.
- [02:48]
Chad Millman
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Bat. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. Is this the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention? I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my bff, my companion, my compadre, my co host, professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [03:13]
Simon Hunter
Chad. How we doing?
- [03:15]
Chad Millman
Listen, we're professionals. We're gonna get through this week. But I'm dragging. I'm not gonna lie to you. People might hear it in my voice. Something's going on. All I know is both of my kids came home from college. Both of my kids are hacking up along. Both my kids act like it's just gonna go away. And within 48 hours of them being home, I got something. I don't like it. I don't like it one bit.
- [03:47]
Simon Hunter
Hey, at least you got the Patriots, right, Chad? And that, that's all that matters. End of the day. Wow.
- [03:52]
Chad Millman
I did, didn't I?
- [03:53]
Simon Hunter
You did. Yeah. That was much needed. Thank God. Not gonna lie, they. They got us in that first half round, like, oh no, this is that bad Patriots game. But we, we had the qb Luck go our way, brother. We. We didn't have the injured qb. And Drake may, I think he's back up to like +150 +120. MVP play. Hell of a game.
- [04:13]
Chad Millman
You know what, I was so not sweating it after we did the show on Sunday night. I went downstairs, I'm like, you know what, the kids are home. I'm gonna see what they're doing, if anyone will hang out with me. So I played gin with my older son and I didn't even, like, I didn't even watch the game. Kicked his ass, by the way. He won the first couple games and then I came back. Miraculous recovery. He always loves when I talk trash. I say that kiddingly. He gets so annoyed. And then I went to bed like I had a full 85 year old.
- [04:51]
Simon Hunter
Lucky for us, so did John Harbaugh. So that's how we won that game.
- [04:54]
Chad Millman
I had a full 85 year old evening on Sunday night, played Jen, went to bed, woke up, and the Patriots had won.
- [05:01]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [05:02]
Chad Millman
And we were 3 and 2. And our favorite picks from Sunday morning, I think on the year right now, we won with the Patriots, we won with the Panthers, we won with the Jags, lost with the Lions and Bills for the year. 45 and 35 through 16 weeks. Another three and two week in our sharper square, pick them contest. This is our Tuesday show. We're going to review the entire slate. If you want our final Sunday picks, you got to watch the Sunday morning show at Sharper Square on YouTube. Don't forget, get all the shows. Sharper Square, YouTube. Go subscribe and like the video. Download us from Apple Pod, Spotify, wherever you get your pods. Simon, we got a whole crapload of shitty backup quarterback Christmas day games.
- [05:54]
Simon Hunter
Blame it on Christmas. Why am I out of control?
- [06:03]
Trainer Games Announcer
Give me forgiveness for what's about to unfold.
- [06:10]
Chad Millman
That's what the NFL's giving us this year. Three games on Christmas starting with Dallas at Washington. Washington's a six and a half point underdog. We're getting Josh Johnson starting for the Washington Commanders. And this line has moved from four and a half to six and a half. The Cowboys are out of the playoffs. Jerry Jones called this season a disappointment. Simon, you shame them on Sunday. Is there a number that could get us to bet Josh Johnson starting for the Commanders and is six and a half it?
- [06:46]
Simon Hunter
No. That feels like it's still a Cowboys number, doesn't it to you? I don't know. I feel like they got to keep going up. This is going to be like you said Christmas morning, everyone's gonna be hammering this Cowboys team. They're gonna be in every parlayer teaser. So if you can get the six and a half, I'd grab it. I've grabbed the Cowboys numbers and Commanders to me come back on the other side once it gets to seven and a half. Like it needs to get way up there. This is a quarterback that I thought was totally out of the league. Like just not good. Like it's. This is as bad as for Washington and they really don't want to win. And you've seen that. It feels like these last couple weeks. On the flip side, the Cowboys, they just got out manned by the Chargers. They were trying hard in that game. They just could. There was nothing they could do. And you know we always joke Dak. This is the exact type of games Dak WINS by like 20 points. So you know, playing a bad team, NFC in a game that doesn't matter, this is where Dak thrives. So pretty, pretty wild stats here with this Dallas team. If you just want to take a look at the total, they are 14 and one to the first half over this season. Cowboys.
- [07:47]
Chad Millman
Wow.
- [07:47]
Simon Hunter
So like their defense. I mean me and Matt Mitchell joked earlier in the year there'd be so many times that you have their under and it felt like 21 points were scored in the final two minutes of the first half. Has happened multiple times. Like they score a touchdown, they give up a long touchdown, they come and score another one. So that's just an interesting stat. It's really unique. I think it's like one of the highest over teams ever in NFL history to the first half. So I believe if they do hit this over the next game, it would set a record for the NFL. Like I couldn't find any other team that's ever had 15 overs in the first half. And it's just because of the schedule, right. We've never had. So that one extra game has really messed with a lot of these trends and stuff. So pretty sneaky stat there for Cowboys.
- [08:26]
Chad Millman
I like that. I like that a lot. Listen, I got to be driving into the city on Thursday so this could be the game that I'm listening to and I wouldn't mind a little first half sweat while I'm heading to the city. Hopefully not sitting in traffic. Detroit at Minnesota. Minnesota plus 6. JJ McCarthy not expected to start after injuring his hand. So we are getting Max Brosmer instead. Brosmer On Sunday replacing JJ McCarthy was better, ish, I guess in his first start. Don't forget he had four picks on Sunday. He was 7 and 9 and he led a game winning field goal drive. Don't forget it was a 1313 game. So in relief of McCarthy, I don't know what to do with this Lions team. Like abject failure last week against the Steelers and what we both believed was a smash spot and we went against all of our instincts and didn't bet. Rah rah, Mike Tomlin this game. I'm going to see Marty supreme.
- [09:37]
Simon Hunter
Well, I got to bet it unfortunately and I know I'm just being bitter and I should. You are, should be all over this Detroit team. But I don't know, it's, it's insane. Like, are they really six points better than Minnesota? Minnesota beat them last time he played and it wasn't like JJ played incredible, but he did enough. So I don't know. It's tough spot because now it's their third stringer. It's just, you know, it's not ideal. Obviously Chad, you can hear in my voice, I don't want to do it, but it stinks because I have all these amazing stats about Detroit in this exact spot. And it's like we talked about it, those might just simply be Ben Johnson stats because you know, Goff and Campbell, when they've lost to a previous team, they're facing them now the second time. They're 33 and 14 against the spread in this exact spot. So like they've dominated every time in this spot. Especially when they've already lost that team. They're 7 and 3 in their career together in the spot. So it's tough. It's tough. I'm gonna. We'll see. It stinks is our only show and it's a. We're senior Tuesday. But I know I'm supposed to take. I know I'm supposed to take Minnesota but I'm really tempted to just take the lines because it's just like just. You expect them to have a game where they win 40 to 14. Right. You just expect their defense to do what they did last week. Like I said, they played well until they eventually broke in the second half and their offense just no show. So it's like the old, the old lines team. We'd be all over the spot chat. But I gotta gotta say to myself, this ain't the old lines, this is the new lines. And it's. We have to fade them here. This is too big. So you can get six, six and a half, shop around. I think that's the right number on Minnesota.
- [11:11]
Chad Millman
Your lack of enthusiasm for. For this game is.
- [11:17]
Simon Hunter
I hate that I have to bet it because it's the Christmas gay games. But it's brutal. Yeah, it's just an awful game that I just don't like either side. But I gotta take.
- [11:25]
Chad Millman
Listen, take the game off, go to the movies. You want to come to the city? You can go to the movies with me and Stacy and the boys and my mother in law. It'll be awesome.
- [11:37]
Simon Hunter
Sounds like a nightmare to your boy. I. I'd much rather watch some football and hang with the family.
- [11:43]
Chad Millman
Listen, I forgot to tell everybody at the top of the show. We don't have a show on Thursday. This week we're doing our show on Friday. So our sort of final look at the week and narrowing down will be on Friday. And you'll get the full weekend to listen to it. But we will.
- [12:01]
Simon Hunter
A Boxing Day show.
- [12:02]
Chad Millman
We're doing a Boxing Day show. Hello, Boxing Day. All right. The final game on Christmas. Another third string quarterback. Stop me if you've heard this before. The worst team will be playing the backup quarterback. Poor Gardner Miner didn't even make it a half in his mop of duty for Patrick Mahomes. He tore his acl. The likely starter, Chris Oladumi. Ola Deun. Chris Ol. I believe he went to South Florida, Sanford and South Dakota State. Here's a scenario right now. The Chiefs draft 12th in the 2026 draft. And if they lose their last two games and any number of teams ahead of them who have five wins, the Saints or a combination of five or six wins in the draft, the Saints, the Dolphins, the Falcons, the Bengals, if they all win out or some variety of wins and losses and the Chiefs lose, they could jump into the top 10. Like that is an astounding scenario for a team that is going to get Patrick Mahomes back, that has not been drafting in the top parts of the first round four years that has glaring holes and all of a sudden if they're getting, let's say they're getting a top 12 at the worst. I know the number is huge, it's 13. But I'm trying to find not just the talent to cover this number, but the incentive to cover this number.
- [13:47]
Simon Hunter
Yeah and I can't wait to lose six figures on all these three teams. Moneyline parlay favorites like how are these dogs, any of these dogs going to win? It's just such an ugly slate with these quarterbacks. Just, just a total nightmare for the NFL. And I say it every time. This is why quarterbacks are so protected. It's just you have to protect the merchandise. Unique spot for Kansas City. Like I, I went through all the numbers so I, I got back to the early 1980s. They are 7, 0 as a home dog of above 9 points. So this has happened in the past. They've been down to this moment and they've covered shockingly in this spot. And you know I jokingly texted Alex Smith's agent, I said, you know, why not have him come back for one or two games after that Philip Rivers stuff we've seen like now people are all in on Phil Rivers and it was fun, I'm not gonna lie. Like that felt it was great. Literally back in 2009 both offenses scoring that will beating the two high safeties. It was, it was really fun but unfortunately I lost a ton of money on the Colts. That was not fun. Yeah, this is a weird spot for this Chiefs team. Like you know even going through all the numbers like seven straight no covers. That's crazy. I didn't even realize until Evan Amers pointed out they had the exact same streak last year. They, they didn't cover in seven straight games last year. So their first team ever super bowl era that back to back seasons with streaks of seven straight non covers. So there's like people out there that we joked out. There's pros who've been riding this Chiefs team. They've been getting burned really bad this year. There are some other people out there that just been fading the Chiefs team and my God, that was a great read by them because they have totally collapsed like you did last week. You're all over it. They, I mean, who knows if Minshi kept playing, but they really look like they were going to give up eventually that defense. So are we going to sit here, Chad? Are we going to take the Chiefs when we know we should? Is this a team that has simply given up facing a Denver team off a bad loss that wants to come in and just blow the doors off them? I mean that's going to be the, the public view of it. The public's going to hammer Denver and it's like again these weird Thursday Christmas games. It's not like things given I don't have a ton of data where it's like, no, simply bet the favorites. It's going to hit. But this, this game scares the hell out of me. I just, I'm going to throw Denver in a five and a half tease or something like that if I have to take the number straight. I gave you that trend like you expect. It's such a big number. You expect the Chiefs to cover that type of big of a number. So I'll, secondly, I'll take the Chiefs plus 13 and a half.
- [16:08]
Chad Millman
I do like the idea of a triple D Dallas, Detroit, Denver moneyline parlay for the day. That seems like a lot of fun. Seems like a great way to walk out of the movie theater and see that you've won all your bets for the day especially.
- [16:26]
Simon Hunter
I mean it's. If you lose it, my God, it's, it's like how did, how are you going to lose this one? That's why, like I told you, I'm going to bet it. But it's the sucker. It's the sucker Christmas bet. It's. Everyone's gonna do it. So what can you do?
- [16:38]
Chad Millman
Well, if you gotta bet something, bet on winners. The Saturday games. Houston at the Los Angeles Chargers. Haven't we seen this movie before? The Chargers are two point favorites. The Chargers and Justin Herbert are red hot. Then they play the Texans stifling defense and implode. I'm talking about the playoffs last year and last year they had their offensive line. I'm not buying the Chargers. I'm going with the Texans. Chad's choice presented by Hard Rock Bet is the Houston Texans.
- [17:19]
Simon Hunter
Are you sure you want to do this? Are you willing to make a choice? My choice. We can't run from who we are. Sharp dudes can just see it, you know what I mean?
- [17:32]
Chad Millman
I would just rather bet this defense as an underdog than face Justin Herbert, than take Justin Herbert as a favorite. And especially after that win against the Cowboys, especially after the Texans struggled against the Raiders in the exact spot you're supposed to bet the Raiders. To me, this is a great matchup for the Houston Texans. Love it.
- [17:55]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, interesting spot. Like you said. I honestly wish I could fade both teams. I think both teams are due for let down games and like you said, maybe that was Houston's game last week, that Raiders game where their defense just was a little lazy, a little off tilt and they gave up some big plays they normally don't give up. So I don't hate the read. It's really about fading Herbert in the spot. Right. We talk all the time Herbert against winning teams. It just seems like he struggles against them. So the last four years he's 9 and 15 straight up against teams above.500. So pretty terrible. Like luckily, you know, we could say this is type of game where whichever team was a dog, I honestly probably would have been on like if the Chargers were a home plus two dog would have been on. But the same like you were saying here with Texans, this feels like Texans should probably be a slight favorite. I have a game of the pick so I'm with you. Like the Texans here, it's. It's a good number and shop around, there's some two and a half's out there. But I think Chad's right, this is, this might keep coming down. I'm seeing all the two and a half starting to disappear. Just the twos.
- [18:52]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I've seen twos. I see one, two and a half out there. I see a two and then I see a lot of one and a half. I did also by the way, I bet the Texans at two and a half. I took a little piece of the money line. Moneyline Millman. That's what they caught me. Baltimore Green Bay. Green Bay is a two and a half point favorite. I, I don't get this one. Is Lamar playing? Is Jordan Love playing? Is Malik Will Willis playing? Like the packers need to win to make the playoffs, obviously the Ravens do too. The ribbon situation is much more dire. If you talk to me about locker room feel. I don't know if you saw the Kyle Hamilton press conference, but him talking about the defense having the same issues they've been having year after year after year the past few years, it just feels like what we've heard and Seen a lot from the Ravens this year, which is some not quite right. Like there seems to be a lack of communication, a lack of trust, a lack of chemistry between the coaching staff and the players and it's, it's playing out on the field. So I don't want to bet the Ravens, but I really don't know who I'm betting on at quarterback for the packers right now.
- [20:10]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, a game like again, if you have to make a pick for your pickle and post those picks in, I guess I'll roll the dice and take the packers because it's like you said, it could be Jordan Love or Malik where Lamar, that's real serious. You got basically said he got need in the back and he basically had like back tightness and spasms and he couldn't go back in the game. You know, this is a guy that has taken a ton of hits over his career and he's not a big frame guy and people worried a little bit when he said he was losing a bunch of weight and it's like, well don't you need a little bit of that cushion? You're already a smaller guy and that just, you know, he's been in out the lineup all season. It's just been a total loss. And you know, the craziest stat I saw like which Kai Hamilton was talking about, it's just how bad this Ravens defense has been and they're 0 and 7 this season when they allow 20 points or more, which says a lot about their defense off of their offense. The only other teams that are winless when they allow 20 points or more this season, this is a horrible group to be in. It's Raiders, Brown and Giants. So that's. The other teams are in the same exact class as the Ravens. It's just in our minds we keep hyping up this Ravens team because the past and we talked, that's why we took the Patriots. We knew it was very public, it was probably not the best spot, but it was like, okay, this island is being priced again. Like this Ravens team is the team of old. They were not three and a half points better the Patriots team has been all season. I think we all can agree on that. And you know, this is another time where the Ravens have been horrible at home. They've actually been shockingly better on the road. But like you said, if it's no Lamar, I think the packers everything like coaching wise, everything they do, it just feels like if it's Malik, they can scheme wise beat this Ravens team. Like they really did have the Bears every which way. It was just a total meltdown and, you know, a fluke like it. Those things happen, you know, the back door, the onside kick. All these random things need to happen for the Bears to get that game and get that cover where the packers, you know, if they would have won that game like they were supposed to, even without knowing the quarterback was going to be, this is probably going to be three and a half. So that's why I just think the early value here is packers and this Ravens team. Just feels like we've talked weeks ago. There was all this drama I've been hearing behind, you know, back stories ever even since then. It's just been negative, negative stuff. Coaches arguing on the sideline with players. It's just been truly a season from hell. And I told you, horrible, Chad, you missed it. He basically took Derek Henry out of the game and he was dominating the game. And that's why I think blowing the season for that team, I didn't, I.
- [22:37]
Chad Millman
Didn'T see it personally because I was playing Jen and then went read. I forgot to tell you, I played Gin. Then I read a book. Then I took Melatonin and then I went to bed. And then I woke up and I saw that the Patriots had won. That's how I'm doing all prime time football from now on. Any. Like last night I had, I had the Colts didn't work out. I also had a parlay on, on Juwan Johnson and I mean Jennings and Michael Pittman. This is how out of it. I'm. I can't remember his name, uh, anytime. Touchdown. And Pittman over four receptions. He landed on four. But I didn't sweat it because I woke up at a good night's sleep and I saw it in the morning. I'm like, c' est la vie, motherfuckers. Onto the next. Give me the Texans and we're gonna rock and roll. That's how it is.
- [23:32]
Simon Hunter
You're a lucky guy. I had to eat a cinnamon bun. I was that upset. No, no, I'm kidding. Just ate a ton of holiday cookies.
- [23:40]
Chad Millman
Well, we got a lot of that going on. But I, I'm staying away. You know how I feel about the.
- [23:45]
Simon Hunter
Sugar you're giving me. No. A lot of people were upset about me. I didn't know what inflammation was. And the simple answer, people is I've never eaten a vegetable. Why would I know what inflammation is? So there's your answer.
- [23:53]
Chad Millman
Oh, you're Al Michaels.
- [23:55]
Simon Hunter
No, I, I don't know. Last week we Were talking about the puka thing, and I thought he said inflation. He said inflammation.
- [24:00]
Chad Millman
No, what I'm saying is Al Michaels has said he's never eaten a vegetable.
- [24:04]
Simon Hunter
Is that true? Yeah. Oh, my God. That's another guy that they got to take behind the bond, the shed, Old yellow.
- [24:10]
Chad Millman
He's. He's just a guy who eats steak and doesn't eat vegetables and talks about betting on football.
- [24:17]
Simon Hunter
That him not getting fired about that punt return just was haunting in that Rams game.
- [24:21]
Chad Millman
Seattle at Carolina. Carolina is a seven and a half point favorite. Look, you said something on Sunday that shocked me, which was, it's Carolina. It's seven and a half. They're at home underdogs. Of course we want to take Carolina. And you're like, wait one second, Chad, tell me what you're going to say right now.
- [24:52]
Simon Hunter
Simon says, give me The Seattle Seahawks -7. I want to play a game. Simon says.
- [24:59]
Chad Millman
Simon says. Presented by Hard Rock. Bet the Seattle Seahawks. I am. I'm not stunned because you tease this a little bit. I did try to find proof to sort of. I, I didn't think you make the. Simon says, but I knew you were leaning this way just from the conversation on Sunday over the past eight games. Panthers are one loss, one loss, one loss. They're four and four. Right. It's not even a road home pattern. They've lost games at home, they've won games on the road. They've won games at home, they've lost games on the road. I need to hear the logic because outside of that pattern, this has been a team that we love to bet as underdogs. We love to bet him as underdogs. When you're getting the hook, which is what we've been getting all week until about this morning. So tell me, tell me everything.
- [25:52]
Simon Hunter
A lot of things jump out this one. I knew right away, though, this was going to be the biggest public dog of the week. The public is going to be all over this Bucks team and it's. It's played out that way. We'll be interested to see if this number does go back up. Right now, Seahawks do have a couple guys injured and banged up on their defense, so this number could keep coming down. I want to grab it now just in case those guys do practice and this gets cleared before Christmas. This could easily jump back up to eight. It's not just a good, a good spot for the Seahawks team. Obviously, their defense travels really well defensively where, you know, can't say the same for the Panthers. Their defense truly is up and down, you really don't know you're going to get week to week. Some weeks they can't stop the ones or weeks they can't stop the pickup pass. It's. It's a very up down team where shucks defense is much more consistent. This is really a Sam Darnold bet. This feels like a Sam Darnold absolute hammer spot. And you know Jackson, Smith and Jigba, he saved it last week. Right. He really played well down the stretch but he was kind of miserable for three quarters there. He didn't really do much. And this feels the type of game where he does do his. What he does is, you know, 150 yards, two touchdowns and Sam Donald's career, it's rare for him to be this big of a favorite. We've seen it change though these last two seasons with him. The Vikings, right? I think so. I posted some stats. I think he has the most wins as a quarterback these last two seasons in the NFL which is pretty bizarre when you think of Sam Darnold. But 12 times his career he's been a starter as a favorite of six points or more. He's 12, 0 straight up 9 and 3 against the spread in those exact spots. So tends to do really well as a big favorite. And you know, we've seen it time and time again. This Panthers team, like I said, they do have weird letdown spots. You know I, I've given out the Mike McDonald stats but I'll give it out again. It's early career but it's. I told you, I just, I've learned my lesson. You got to back this man on the road. He is 10 and 4 against the spread. That is 6 and 2 and 1 against the spread. When he goes to the east coast he's just always gets his teams up. They play up to the moment and especially, you know, this game is, you know, not that it doesn't matter to Carolina. I do think this is going to mean a lot more to Seattle where Carolina they might be looking ahead to next week in that Bucks team. So I like this spot a lot. For shadows you can tell and we'll see if the. I'm gonna see what the pros are saying. Obviously we up this upcoming week but I do feel like this is gonna be a pros versus Joe's. The public will be all over the Panthers and the professionals will take the Seahawks.
- [28:11]
Chad Millman
I kind of like the idea of this.
- [28:14]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's a, it's a hard, it's a very hard Zach. Like I honestly I knew right away, I mean you were gonna love that number on the Panthers, but I was like, no, they're trying to get me and Chad, but we know, we know what to do here so they can't get us. I hope you come to my side. It's, it's. You really have to dive into a lot of the trends too to see what you see with the Seahawks team. They're just a great road team and Sam Donald's great is a big favorite, which is something I never thought I would say. It's just when I think of Seattle, I think of dominant home team, but they're much better on the road.
- [28:41]
Chad Millman
Simon, they can't get us. You and I, we're too smart for them. We know.
- [28:45]
Simon Hunter
They got me last night. I'm not gonna lie. That Colts game, that, that opening drive, touchdown by Philip Rivers, I was going ham running, not running up and down in the book. But I was just like, oh, great read by the boys because I again, I did not see it. I was like, why am I betting all this money on this 40 year old quarterback? But it wasn't his fault. My man was slinging 44.
- [29:04]
Chad Millman
And by the way, I didn't just bet the Colts, I bet the Colts on the money line.
- [29:10]
Simon Hunter
Me too. Yeah, me too. Me too.
- [29:12]
Chad Millman
So for like when it was 14, 14, I'm like, what, what is going on here? They're, they're both going to score 50 points. It's going to go back and forth and then the Colts just couldn't stop anybody and it got emb. But look, Jacksonville is visiting the Indianapolis Colts. The Indianapolis Colts are six and a half point home underdogs second week in a row. We both bet the Colts on Monday night. And you know what? I have no regrets. Like it was really fun for a while. Good for Brock Purdy, good for the Niners. They've got I think the second best chance to get the number one seed in the NFC right now. I love it because I got a shitload of super bowl futures tied to the Niners. But I will say this and don't hate me. It's time to bet the Colts again.
- [30:05]
Simon Hunter
I know I said, I think I took a little bit something that I said. I know we're gonna have to supposed to bet the Colts because it's just we expect such a letdown from this Jaguars team and yes, you know, yes. Watching that game last night though, it's like, oh my God, is this not going to be just Trevor Lawrence throwing against air? There's no they have no secondary. There's no secondary in the Colts. And like the fact that they give up two first round picks for Sauce. I know I'm not trying to kick a mother down, but my God, Colts organization, just so brutal. You try to go for it, it just falls on your face.
- [30:38]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I don't, I don't blame them, but like, there, there's, I don't.
- [30:40]
Simon Hunter
But I'm just saying, like, they might have set themselves back two, three years because they believed in Daniel Jones and it just all fell apart. It's just, it just sucks. As a football fan, I feel bad.
- [30:49]
Chad Millman
For him, but I do too. Like, there's executive ineptitude. I don't, I don't think this was it. Like, as someone who's been a manager, not to compare it to being like an NFL executive, but still, like, you work in media management, sometimes you're gonna have to spend a lot of money on people and go for big swings and sometimes they work and sometimes they don't. And I don't, I don't begrudge him making that trade. Going all in, trying to get an elite defensive stopper who can shut down half the field for you. When you're in a division that has Jacksonville or in a division with Jacksonville, in a conference with Patrick Mahomes, in a conference with Josh Allen, in a conference with Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson, like, it was the exact right, positive EV move. Take a shot. You never know when you're going to get another chance. Again. None of it is the GM's fault. I feel terrible for the guy.
- [31:45]
Simon Hunter
You're a nice guy. I'm the other way. I think even in the moment I said that was a dumb trade. Dumb move. Like Sauce is not worth two. First, he is not a shut down half the field type of corner. He's been lackluster since he got all that money. He cares more about streaming than is playing football. And that was just. That's why it's always scary when you have these GMs that are playing for their jobs. Like, this is a guy that has just had a ton of swinging misses. He hit Ivestino Jones and he was going for one more and he just totally missed. So you're, you're very nice jab, but I am just the other way. I'm like, dude, you blew it. And that was a horrible, horrible trade. So they were never that good. We knew, we knew it was a lot of smoke screens and they've just totally created once. Whatever happened with Taylor, to me, that Was the difference. Taylor just. He was unstoppable for the first eight weeks. Jonathan Taylor and they. Whatever the NFL has done, the adjustments, maybe part of that is Daniel Jones, but they stopped him. That's totally stopped this Colts team. But just the trends for this game, Chad, are horrible. The Jags, we hammered the Jags the first time.
- [32:40]
Chad Millman
Totally.
- [32:42]
Simon Hunter
I'll give them out because people just forget. I love giving out these stats because they play twice a year since 2015. Indy 317 and 1 against the spread against this Jaguars team. Philip rivers himself, he is.02 against the spread in the spot for this Colts team. India at home 271 against this Jaguars team since 2015. It's just disastrous. And like shockingly, you know, Trevor Lawrence against his divisional opponents. He's actually pretty good in his career. 75 against the spread. You know, it's probably the biggest. In my mind, this is the biggest number I can remember Trevor Lawrence ever being on the road in his division. So I went back and looked. He was minus six against the Titans this season. I don't if you remember that game. He won 25 to 3. So I guess it's warranted because this number jumped out to me. I couldn't believe how big it was. It's like this is a divisional game. I'm shocked. It's big. They're begging me to take the Colts. So they got Chad. I can see they got Chad. I. I can't do it. That defense is just so bad. So I want to bet the Colts. That was the funnest ride ever. Like you said that first quarter. It was a blast, Rivers. It was. So I. I think I'm supposed to bet the Jaguars here. I'll take them with my pick polls. But I feel dirty about it. Maybe I'll bet the Colts money line or something to make me feel not totally gross. But I just think anything under seven feels like it's a Jags number. They're good. Like, again, I got to give them this Jags team is totally good. They're really legit. Like, I just. I'm underestimated. My model is as well. Even last week, like, my model didn't love him and I was just like, no, this is a Jag spot. And yeah, this, like Chad's saying here, this is the opposite of a Jag spot. This is a total fade. Bet the Colts and I just can't get there. Yeah, the Colts defense is so bad.
- [34:25]
Chad Millman
When a defense looks this bad in prime time, going against a team that just opened the eyes of Every NFL fan who was suspect of the Jags, this is the spot. The only surprise to me, the only surprise to me is that it hasn't gotten to seven. Like, and I think it will. I think the public will come in on the Jags at some point this week, and clearly there hasn't been any resistance from the wise guys because it hasn't moved up to six and a half. So I think everyone's waiting for this to get to seven. Yeah.
- [34:56]
Simon Hunter
And like, again, I have so many stupid trends for Trevor Lawrence, too. Off wins like 11 and 4 against the spread. Off a win of 10 points or more in his career, 20 and 13 ATS. Off a win in his career. Like, I know he hasn't done a lot of winning, but he just, he tends. Like I said last week, that's another reason we wanted to take him. It's like, this guy keeps winning. It's. Whatever it is, he. He has that type of momentum. It's. It's crazy. This Jags team, I can't believe how bought in I am on them. I don't know if they peaked too early, but I do think they're going to be a real problem for a lot of these teams in the playoffs. It's a really fun team.
- [35:29]
Chad Millman
I do love Liam Cone.
- [35:31]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, Like, I just love their scheme so much.
- [35:33]
Chad Millman
Liam cone all season. So. All right, well, this will be one we got to revisit. We got to see what the wise guys say in sharp calls. Let's get a word and listen to what our friends at Hard Rock Bet have to say. Want to know where I bet on sports during the holiday season? That's right, it's Hard Rock Bet. Not just because it's the presenting sponsor of our show, but because they make it easy to bet both pregame and live. In just a few simple taps, I open the app, find a bet I like, and then, bam. My bet is placed just in time for me to get back to wrapping presents and enjoying my favorite Christmas movie. Sign up today and bet $5 on any game. If it wins, you also score $150 in bonus bets. A winning bet plus an extra $150 to bet with. Now, that's spreading holiday cheer. Plus, Hard Rock bet fills your stockings with new promos daily. So whenever you're listening, just open the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week, download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit to today payable and bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia. To play terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1-833-Playwise in Indiana. If you were or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809 with it gambling problem, call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia did you know?
- [37:20]
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- [37:49]
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Simon Hunter
This is where mindset comes in.
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Trainer Games Announcer
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Sophie Cunningham
Pressure is coming down.
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- [39:50]
Chad Millman
O U N D Simon yeah buddy. It's good to see you. Your New Orleans Saints are visiting the Tennessee Titans. The number was three. I bet the Titans at plus three. It is now two and a half at Hard Rock. Bet the Titans have been on an ATS heater the past five weeks, as have the Saints. Titans are 3 and 2. Both of these offenses generally rank near the bottom in every category. On defense, the Saints are much better, even top 10 in yards per play, which we like a lot. But the one weakness in their defense is their rush defense and the one strength for the Titans during this run, especially in two of the past three games which they won outright, has been Tony Pollard. 162 on the ground. 104 on the ground. 102 on the ground. That's the one weakness for this New Orleans Saints team. I know you want to tell me we got to back the Saints here. I've already bet the Titans. I don't see why we're not going to continue to back the team that we used to not be able to figure out and now it's very clear this team is a covering juggernaut. Mike McCoy probably is the coach of the year in the second half of the year.
- [41:12]
Simon Hunter
That's. That's a bit much. They are 5 and 3 against the spread like you said, since they fired their head coach. You know, they won two outright what these last three weeks. So you know, they have turned stuff around. You got to give props to the coaching staff and Cam Ward. I mean he's been playing really well. You're spot on this one. The pros, they're all over the Titans. This is going to be another pros versus Joe's public is going to be hammering the Saints team and yeah, it's tough. Tough for me especially because I'm all in on shock. Like I, I have so many random future bets on it, like on all different books. I found one that you'll love. Maybe I'll post it to Twitter because it is so hilarious. I think it's like I bet 20 bucks it's on shuck Rookie of the year, Ben Johnson coach of the year and Miles Garrett to win defensive player of the year. I think it's 20 bucks to win like $34,000.
- [42:00]
Chad Millman
No.
- [42:00]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I'll post it on Twitter or something. It's an insane, insane bet. So now I'm like really rooting for Ben Johnson get coach of the year and obviously shock to hit this. But yeah, it's, it's a bad spot. Like you just said, this is a not, this is not where you want to be back in the Saints team. And I wish I was with the Titans that early read on the Plus 3. That was definitely the number to get because this the pros they're gonna be a lot of resistance but I think by the pros this getting back up to three. So it'll be interesting to see where this number ends up. But yeah, if you want to join Chad the other professionals, you can bet the two and a half. I am banned, banned from betting Tennessee Titan games. So I'm not gonna, not gonna give out a side. But if I was going to, I'd be joining Chad on Tennessee. That's the sharp side.
- [42:45]
Chad Millman
You are banned from betting Tennessee Titans games. I am too but I don't care about bands. I drive right through the bands. I'm that kind of renegade. Who is the odds on favorite to win coach of the year Right now I'm looking for the odds and I.
- [43:01]
Simon Hunter
Thought he was plus 100.
- [43:03]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Variable. Yeah. It's a tough one.
- [43:08]
Simon Hunter
I'll send, I'll send a picture that bet to you and Matt Mitchell in Texas right now because it is hilarious. It's 20 bucks to win 34 000.
- [43:15]
Chad Millman
That's crazy. That's crazy.
- [43:18]
Simon Hunter
The shuck was 201 and now he is 3 to 1 or 4 to 1.
- [43:22]
Chad Millman
Yeah, that's, that is nuts. That is totally nuts. Is he that, is he that low right now? Jesus.
- [43:28]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Just the hype train. It's like peaking.
- [43:31]
Chad Millman
Oh my God. Yeah. Ted roll McMillan is three to one. Tyler shock is four to one. Jesus. That's insane.
- [43:40]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. So I'm, you never know. I'm a big Ben Johnson shuck fan right now. That'd be, that'd be an all timer.
- [43:46]
Chad Millman
If that hits Arizona, it's Cincinnati. Cincinnati is a seven point favorite. No interest, no lean.
- [43:54]
Simon Hunter
No. I, I, I think we're supposed to keep taking Cincy and like you said it's every week. We've been getting good numbers on Arizona every week. They just totally lay eggs. So yeah, this could be the week. Right. This is a good matchup for them. Like they should be able to move the ball. But Cincinnati in games where they show up and play out and Joe Bro plays well. I think their defense has improved all season. I think their offensive line improved all season. And you know, Joe obviously just came back a little bit too late. Like they're just one of those rare teams that their whole season's over, but they feel like, you know, obviously they laid an egg against Baltimore, but most weeks they've improved the feelings every week. So I guess another chalk bet I'll be on since you. I don't feel good about it.
- [44:37]
Chad Millman
Pittsburgh at Cleveland. Cleveland is down to three and a half, so the line is moving in their direction. Yeah, obviously Cleveland is where the wise guys are putting their money.
- [44:48]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [44:50]
Chad Millman
You know, we have historically been betting the Browns when they're at home with their defense. You want to fade Mike Tomlin when he's a road favorite and they're not the underdogs and he's not in the rah rah Mike Tomlin spot. We've said these lessons a million times, so I give a very unenthusiastic Cleveland Browns. Take it. Hold your nose. But I don't see it being one of our final five.
- [45:21]
Simon Hunter
I did some very lazily, I shouldn't even say me. I made a guy that works for me actually do this. I made him go back and listen to our shows from back in the day when we used to whenever the Browns played the Steelers because I just want to see did we always blindly just fade Steelers here? And we shockingly have we basically every year we take the Browns in this exact spot since we've been doing the show together. And I was like, okay, now I have to look up to see if that's actually worked for me and trend that because as soon as I saw this, I was like, we must blindly bet this every year. There's never not a time their dog because I think they have something crazy. Right. It's like 23 straight games the Browns have lost outright against the Steelers on the road. But at home I was like, you know, I think it is different. I did look it up. They've won their last their five of their last six games at home the Browns have beat the Steelers outright and they're actually on a three game win streak covering streak at home this Browns team against the Steelers. So it's been good to us. We've been blindly betting this and it's been honestly working out for us. And I'm Just like you. It's like this is the exact time to go against Pittsburgh. Total letdown game against our Browns team that we talked about. They got very lucky, right? They had an end zone drops touchdown and a missed battle. Pat, they shouldn't have covered last week, and I don't think it's being priced as if they did either. Where it's like, I feel like even if, you know, they. They didn't cover, this number's still what this is right now. I think the pros would have came and hammered it. So I. I like anything above three. We'll. We'll back this Browns team here in a total letdown spot for this team. And you know, Pittsburgh, that has been just like Carolina. They've been up and down all season. It's really hard to get a read on them. So not. I don't know if I'll make our final five. It could potentially, because it is such a good number, but Pittsburgh's been another team that feels like it's been a tough read for me this season.
- [46:56]
Chad Millman
You made someone on your team listen to all of our shows about these specific games going back to 2019.
- [47:04]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, but it's easy because it's all time marked like Matt Mitchell used to put in when we would talk about certain games. So all you have to do is just fast forward. I just didn't feel like listening to myself, honestly, so I was like, you got to do this. But yeah, you think that's bad? It's. That's easy. That's. That's a good day for that guy. Believe me, compared to other stuff these guys have to do.
- [47:23]
Chad Millman
I might make my whole family listen to the show on the way into the city on Thursday. Instead of. Instead of the clicks. Yeah. Instead of listening to the game, we're just gonna listen to. To dad talk about the game. And I guarantee what it will look like because you're a young bachelor and don't have children. It will look like my 19 year old in the back with his AirPods in. My 22 year old in the back with his airpods in. And my wife not listening to anything that includes my voice, whether it's recorded or otherwise.
- [47:56]
Simon Hunter
Honestly, I'm with the Gen Zs there. I'm big into headphones in cars. I don't know why. It's just my therapy. Just good music. Listening to music while someone else is driving around. It's a good one.
- [48:07]
Chad Millman
I want the communal experience. I want us to all enjoy it together. Especially me. New England at the New York Jets Jets 13. This was 13 and a half. So it's come down a click. The team that just crater versus the team that just had the huge emotional win in prime time. The teams that are dogs on a two plus game losing streak, that are 13 plus points at home. 57% against spread since 1989. Thank you, killer sports. The Pats continue to be banged up. Trayvon Henderson, concussion. Snoop Huntley did move the ball against them. Am I squinting? Am I squinting to look for the opportunity with the Jets? Brady Cooks going to be the quarterback again? What am I missing here?
- [48:55]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, if you're Ben the Jets, you're literally betting on a miracle. Like, that's what you're going to need. The Patriots are better than them in every, every way possible. Like the jets, we knew they were a gutted team. Right. They got rid of all their, their star players, which was again, smart move by them. I honestly have liked everything they've done except their head coaching hire. Like when you see a guy like Vrabel or Ben Johnson, you're an owner, just pay the money for the guys. Like, it just will never make sense to me. It's like these guys can change your whole franchise. Aaron Glenn, he's a good guy. Good dc, I don't know what he does for them. He doesn't call the defensive plays. Like I've talked about that. He just. It's a very bizarre hiring. And Chad's not wrong here. It's probably the right spot to back the jets, but after watching this kid Cooks play, I just. He's not an NFL quarterback and he doesn't have any weapons around him to make it any easier for him. So Variable knows the deal. He'll stack the box, take away the run game, and make this kid try to put the ball downfield in that situation. You've seen this Patriots secondary. Even though they've had a bunch of injuries, they do turn the ball over. They are a pretty good secondary.
- [49:57]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [49:57]
Simon Hunter
I know how much you love Chris Gonzalez. So already half the field's gone, so it's, it's just a unique spot. Mike Vrabel against, you know, teams under.500 in his career, 29, 17 against the spread. So he does well against really bad teams. We already know that about Rabel, and this is no different. This is a very bad jets team. So if you want to back the jets and just simply blind it because the number's so big, I get it. But anything under 14, I think is okay for me to take. Patriots, wow. Yeah. Now the jets are Awful. They're just, they're just bad.
- [50:28]
Chad Millman
I mean they're truly terrible. No, I, I completely agree.
- [50:31]
Simon Hunter
It's just, I get what you're doing though. You're betting the number. If you're betting the jets, you're simply just betting them.
- [50:34]
Chad Millman
Number Such a big number. Yeah, Tampa Bay at Miami. I, I have no reason to say I like the do Dolphins other than I don't know if the Bucks can cover a big number right now. Like, there's no, there's no indication. But a lot of times when you're betting, you're betting on the evidence of things unseen. Right? We have a lot of evidence for, for the Buccaneers of things we've seen where this team consistently shoots itself in the foot and isn't able to execute and outmaneuver teams, especially teams that are worse than them. And so I don't want to bet the Dolphins, but I'm not betting the Bucks. And I'd probably be more inclined to take the home dog here when everybody is going to be riding the road. Favorite.
- [51:27]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's like there's so many games are just so gross. You hate and you know, you have to do though and that's what's so brutal about like we know we have to bet the Dolphins and you know, the Bucks. I gave up that crazy stat that I got from memory. It was like, you know, I think this is their first seven game ATS losing streak since like 1983 or 82. Like this just does not happen. The Bucks franchise and we've made millions of excuses because we're both big, big Baker fans. You know, he is clearly has some type of injury, but you can't, you can't deny these numbers. I mean the guy has just been terrible. He's 37 over 39 quarterbacks in completion percentage since that Week 8 game or Week 7 game against the Lions. And that's when we all think he got hurt. He just has been terrible. He's 36 of 39 QBs and EPA per play. He's just horrible right now and it's. We're just not used to it because in the first couple weeks he was like a top three, top four MVP candidate type of guy and he's been anything but these last couple of weeks. So like you said, this is too big of a number. Miami, they can still run the ball. We saw that last week in Cincinnati. They were able to move the ball. Eventually the wheels came off because Joe Burrow was just in kill mode. He just could not stop missing so you know Bucs get right spot. This is exactly where they should get right blow out this Dolphins team. But it's hard to have any type of faith in them. They just have looked totally lost this season.
- [52:48]
Chad Millman
I feel like we're non committal on that game.
- [52:50]
Simon Hunter
I'm betting the Dolphins, but I am not committal in the sense that like I'm talking about to put real money into this Dolphins team that look like they totally quit last week. I'm not doing it like I am not putting my money but for my pick pools I have to make a pick. I'll take Dolphins.
- [53:04]
Chad Millman
New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders the Raiders are one and a half point favorites right now. This is the battle for the number one overall pick. So the Giants, they have a qb, we think they have a receiver in neighbors. They have the front four. They have all pro left tackle. If they keep the number one, they can trade down and get so much more of what they need. If the Raiders lose and get the number one, they can draft Fernando Mendoza or Dante Moore. They definitely need to get that quarterback. So what are we ultimately betting on here? Are we betting on both teams trying? Are we betting on one of the teams not trying? Are we betting on the the management recognizing the value to their franchise of the number one pick? Are we going to get a Lovey Smith with the Texans two years ago, three years ago and all of a sudden he decides screw it, screw the franchise, screw management, my team's going to win and they end up losing the overall number one pick. Like I don't know what we're betting on here, motivation or talent.
- [54:10]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, and I mean Matt Mitchell was giving us his spiel before the show about how this is like a Raiders team that they want to win, they're going to try to win with the Giants. Really don't care. I see both sides of it though. If you're Jackson Dart, why take the risk if it's you and you know if your team has number one pick, they could take Mendoza. They, they were there's that's right to him. Like he's the 22nd pick. It wasn't like he was a top one, top two pick. Guys had multiple concussions already in his rookie year he's been in and out of the lineup. If I was him, my God, do I think in my mind I need to win this game. I came to let that even become an option. And this Raiders team, I agree with Matt though that like you know, Pete Carroll does not care about the future. I think he Knows he's on the way out. Same with Geno Smith. I think they're playing for future endeavors, so I think they'll try to win. And you know, luckily there are some stats here, even though this is historically horrible. Like, this is so rare to both teams, 2 and 13 playing this late in the season since 1990 when both teams have a win percentage less than 13%. So we've seen four matchups in this exact time in week 11 or later. The home team is four. No. Straight up historically in this spot. So there are some historical data to back up as well. The Raiders, this is technically a good spot to take them, right? The worst team at home that are both terrible teams tend to show up and play hard on the other team that just. Why wouldn't they have given up, right? The Giants, it's. It's. It's totally over for them. Defensively, I mean, they still like Burns, all these guys. They're playing for incentives and stuff that. But offensively, that. That was so bizarre last week, them having, I think so bizarre passing the ball 13 times. I'm. I'm with them. I guess I'll be on the Raiders. And that's going to end up being another super public favorite. Just look at the money right now. It's all the money. All the tickets are on the Raiders. So I agree with it. So we'll see where this number goes. If it doesn't budge. Maybe I could talk our way out of it come Sunday. But this feels like under three at home. Raiders. If this is not the time we take them in the contest. I don't know when there is.
- [56:05]
Chad Millman
Oh, God, that is. They're like. Of all the grossness that's happening, that feels like the grossest thing you've said today.
- [56:15]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's. I don't enjoy it either, but it just feels like they're the veteran team and somewhat. And we saw last week they can move the ball offensively with this. This Giants team looks like they've totally packed it in.
- [56:26]
Chad Millman
Well, lucky Matt Mitchell said it before the show. Pete Carroll doesn't feel like the guy who tanks, right?
- [56:37]
Simon Hunter
No.
- [56:37]
Chad Millman
And he also could give a if he gets fired. So if. And if he gets fired, losing the number one pick on the way out the door, unless Tom Brady calls him and is like, dude, do not fuck this up for me. I want to give Fernando Mendoza.
- [56:54]
LG Gram Advertiser
Did you know Microsoft has officially ended Support for Windows 10 upgrade to Windows 11 with an LG Gram laptop? Voted PCMag's Reader's Choice top laptop brand for 2025. Thin and ultra lightweight, the LG Gram keeps you productive anywhere, and Windows 11 gives you access to free security updates and ongoing feature upgrades. Visit LGUSA.com iheart for great seasonal savings on LG Gram laptops with Windows 11 PCMag Reader's Choice used with permission. All rights reserved.
- [57:25]
Trainer Games Announcer
Ten athletes will face the toughest job interview in fitness that will push past physical and mental breaking points. You are the fittest of the fit. Only one of you will leave here with an IFIT contract worth $250,000.
- [57:44]
Simon Hunter
This is where mindset comes in.
- [57:45]
Trainer Games Announcer
Someone will be eliminated.
- [57:48]
Sophie Cunningham
Pressure is coming down.
- [57:50]
Sports Promo Announcer
Trainer Games on Prime Video January 8th. Watch the trailer on trainergames.com your ticket.
- [57:55]
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- [59:24]
Chad Millman
O U n D Philadelphia at Buffalo Buffalo it's moving in the in the Eagles direction. It was two and a half. I like the Bills here. I don't think the Eagles can stop their run game. I think the Bills have more to play for. I think there's still injury issues for the Eagles who have clinched they can't get the number one seed. Like I want to play the Bills. I'm surprised the number is moving against them right now.
- [59:51]
Simon Hunter
Me too. Honestly, just because I see no reason why the Eagles would even try in this game. They just feel like they're locked in. They're a team that said injuries all season. Why not rest a lot of key guys? It's just. You can use these next two weeks to rest guys. But, you know, the pros maybe just view what I. I think most of us know. I know the Bills have looked better, but honestly, when you break this down, the Eagles are much better than this Bills team.
- [60:14]
Chad Millman
Much better. Look, like we were. We were worried about Mariota as a mobile QB against the Eagles defense, and it was playing out exactly that way.
- [60:24]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [60:24]
Chad Millman
What about. What about with Josh Allen?
- [60:26]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Honestly, it's shocking. Josh Allen, you know, he dominates everyone. I think the Eagles are the only team in his career he's never beaten. He's 0 and 2 straight up. 0 and 2 against the spread in his career. But I'm like you. It's like the Eagles, what are they playing for on the flip side, The Bills, they want to roll and destroy this team.
- [60:42]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [60:43]
Simon Hunter
And they're the best running team of football. They should be able to run it all over this Eagles team that has been suspect against the run all season. And you know, I just. I don't really. I'm like you. I do not get this one. The pros, they're coming in heavy on this Eagle side. Like snummer was up to three at a bunch of books. Now it's. I've seen a bunch of one and a halfs pop up.
- [61:00]
Chad Millman
So I bet the two and a half.
- [61:03]
Simon Hunter
Maybe there's injury we're missing, brother, but I'm with you. It's like one and a half. You can get that right on the Bills. I'm all over that number. I just think the Bills could easily blow up this Eagles team here.
- [61:12]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I bet the two and a half because yesterday it looked like it was going to three. I wanted to grab it. And then I looked this morning, I'm like one and a half. What did I miss here?
- [61:20]
Simon Hunter
And Bills, I'll give them this. They're 50 against the spread this season when they face teams above.500. So, you know, they've done. They've done well when they play against really good teams. That's also a little skewed too. But wait, that's not true because I remember that they lost to the Patriots.
- [61:36]
Chad Millman
Yeah. So.
- [61:37]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. I don't know why that trend.
- [61:38]
Chad Millman
I don't know. I don't know where you're getting your facts, alternative facts from Simon Hunter right now.
- [61:45]
Simon Hunter
Eagles. On the flip side, they are 3 and 6 when they're on the road since 2022 playing against a team that is above.500. Owen 6 when they have won and covered the previous game. So it's, it's a weird spot for the Seagulls team. They tend to have let downs in the following games on the road back to back.
- [62:03]
Chad Millman
Simon Hunter. Remember the mainstream media just making stuff up. Unbelievable.
- [62:11]
Simon Hunter
Let's talk about under the bus. But I didn't make that stat up. Obviously I got that from someone else.
- [62:15]
Chad Millman
I'm kidding. I'm just kidding. Making fun of the mainstream media primetime spotlight. Let's focus on these standalone games because we get to see our favorite team, the Chicago Bears rolling into the Bay Area to play the San Francisco 49ers, who are a three point favorite. You loved the Bears on Sunday night.
- [62:39]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [62:40]
Chad Millman
After last night, how do we feel about fading? The Niners looking so perfect. Looking so Purdy. Perfect in prime time. Five touchdowns for Brock Purdy. Team look great. Colts couldn't stop.
- [62:57]
Simon Hunter
Feels like.
- [62:59]
Chad Millman
I was just gonna say it feels like the exact time you want to fade.
- [63:01]
Simon Hunter
The Niners and my fancy team appreciated that. Brock Purdy, but my God, this man literally put a bar soap into a sock and beat the shit out of me last night. Every time he dropped back and it was like 37 or third and eight, I knew completion. I knew it was gonna be for 10 or 15 yards. And anytime they're in the red zone, I knew it was somehow gonna be a touchdown. I mean, we got super lucky. They had a touchdown, not called a touchdown. And he just had a wide open dump off to McCaffrey for a touchdown. Yeah, it's like Colts. If there's a guy to cover in the red zone, I'd say McCaffrey is number one. Just double them.
- [63:33]
Chad Millman
It was astonishing how infrequently they were able to cover anybody on the field. Again, I went to bed at halftime, so whatever. But it was weird how wide open guys were.
- [63:45]
Simon Hunter
I don't know. I'm a sucker here, but like, I, I feel like we're supposed to be betting the Bears.
- [63:50]
Chad Millman
Yeah, we are.
- [63:51]
Simon Hunter
But Brock Purdy, since he's come back from injury and replace Mac Jones, he, he heard the haters like me heard the noise saying, get rid of Purdy, get Mac on the cheap. They're not that much difference which. The numbers bear it out. But the man is 5, 0 straight up. And against the spread, since he's come back. He's been an absolute tour de force. Brock Purdy. So I don't know what to do. Chad. Like this just feels like the time to take them. But unfortunately, all the trends, all the numbers say otherwise. So teams on 8 days rest or more who are an underdog 12, 39 straight up 12 and 29 against the spread dating back to 20 2003. It's not ideal. It's not the best spot, I guess for this Bears team. But I do feel like that has to help them. Right? They're, they're on extended prep. The Niners on our short week. It's just maybe I'm just, like I said, too in love with this Bears team. They've just always covered this number for me this season. Right. They've been in every game as close. So like you said, it feels like the exact time to fade the Niners. Don't rush the window though. We might be able to get a three and a half just like we saw with that Ravens number in the Patriots. That number got the three and a half. Jaguars got the three and a half. So we've seen some of these numbers do bump up. I'm just gonna grab it right now just in case it does drop two and a half. But I just, I see professionals coming on the Niner team. They're just such a well oiled machine. And you know the deal, Chad. Your defense, it's been held together with bubblegum and tape. It's like your secondary so banged up. But I said that this Niners team, their defense is banged up too. And you saw Rivers was tearing them up. So I just feel like it's gonna be another back and forth. And the Bears, they get turnovers, they get stops. I just, it's the number. I can't help it. If it was two and a half, I could see maybe me being more towards this Niners team. But three, three and a half, that's what I'd be at with this Bears team.
- [65:36]
Chad Millman
Well, look, the, the, one of the reasons we liked the Colts last night is because we expected a Jonathan Taylor game. The 49ers rush defense just isn't very good. And so if the Bears can execute on the ground the way they have been all year, that could mitigate a lot of the defensive issues the Bears have because they'll control the clock for a little bit longer than I think the Colts were able to last night. And by the way, there were so many throws where Philip Rivers, you know, he was heaving a bowling ball and, and it was just not getting where it needed to be. Those are throws that Caleb Williams can make. So I have reason to believe in the Chicago Bears. Do we have reason to believe in the Atlanta Falcons? The number has moved against the Rams Monday Night Football from eight and a half down to eight. So the wise guys are betting the Falcons. I can see it like they have been much, much better with Kirk Cousins. They just have, right? And so. And even last week, like they struggled against Arizona in the first half, then they pulled away. They kept Arizona at bay. They didn't let him get that back door. You know, it'll be a. The kind of game where it's going to be fast on turf, indoors. Big number for the Rams. I feel like you're going to tell me Sean McVay in December.
- [67:01]
Simon Hunter
There you go. Good man. There's nothing but, there's nothing but cover for us last week. The refs, they tried their best, Chad. They tried so hard to not let us cover that Rams number. We still got there at the plus one and a half. Just incredible. Yeah, it's McVeigh in December. And even better, it's McVeigh after a loss in December, which is very rare. Just the fact that it's off a loss. McVeigh in his career, 32 and 19 against the spread, off a loss. It is the best record for any head coach since he entered the league in 2017. Even better when he's off a loss playing at night. He's 8 and 4 against the spread in his career. So tends to, tends to back it up in the sense that they lose games. I mean, that was insane. Like to me, like I was shocked to. My model had this at ten and a half. The more I think about it more it makes sense, right? They should have won that Seattle game. This should have ten, ten and a half. I mean that just never in our lifetime, we may never see a team, you know, 10 minutes later get a two point gone their way because a guy picked up a football after the whistle, which I know people are complaining. A lot of people in the sports were complaining and I was shocked too. I had to google it. They changed a rule, I guess in like 2009 that on a play like that doesn't matter if the whistle is blown, it. The play is not dead. So I know people are upset about that, but it's like it doesn't matter. Like, no every other play in football matters if the whistle's blown. It does matter on that exact play. A forward pass. It does not matter if a backward pass I should say does not matter if the whistle is blown. So I was again losing my mind because I was like that whistle blew. That's a dead play. That two pointer should not count it. So this feels like a weird number. The Rams are being punched a little bit. Like you said, this is going to be very public. Another every all Joe, all the Joes are going to be just lining up bed in this Rams team. They're going to be in every parlay moneyline bet. Just you expect them to bounce back and obviously dominate this Atlanta team that they're another team that they've been beating up on. It feels like bad teams here now. They're playing what I think is the class of the NFC. So you know, Chad said at the top McVeigh December, it's, it's what is it two zero already this, this month so far against the spread it's, it's been covering. I'm going to keep riding. I just love McVeigh here in this Rams team.
- [69:14]
Chad Millman
All right, look, we got a lot to decipher on Friday. Don't forget we will be back on Friday. Everyone please enjoy a safe, happy Merry Christmas. Enjoy the games, enjoy your families, enjoy whatever you're going to be doing, wherever you're going to be doing it. We're coming back for Boxing Day. Simon says was surprisingly Seattle -7 on the road against Carolina. Chad's choice was Houston +2. If you can get a 2 1/2 there are some available. Go get it. We got a lot of games to discuss over Saturday and Sunday when we get back to it on Friday. Ho ho ho to my BFF Simon. Merry Christmas to our producer Matt Mitchell and his family. Merry Christmas. This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume Podcast network. We'll be back on Friday with the games. We're zeroing in on our head to head battle brass ball. So much more. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate Review, Subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is like a Christmas gift under the tree. Until next time. Love you. Merry christmas.
- [70:40]
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- [71:11]
Sophie Cunningham
At CVS it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night. And we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CVS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack. At cvs, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine and matters. So Visit us@cvs.com or just come by our store. We can't wait to meet you. Store hours vary by location.
- [71:46]
Trainer Games Announcer
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- [72:05]
Simon Hunter
This is where mindset comes in.
- [72:06]
Trainer Games Announcer
Someone will be eliminated.
- [72:08]
Sophie Cunningham
Pressure is coming down.
- [72:11]
Sports Promo Announcer
Trainer Games on Prime Video January 8th. Watch the trailer on trainergames.com your ticket.
- [72:16]
Valpak Mobile Coupons Advertiser
To big Savings is that big blue envelope in your mailbox. Valpak. It's brimming with deals from big name brands and your favorite local spots, dining services, stuff you're already buying. All for less. And you could score $100 or other instant prizes just for opening it. Or save even faster with mobile coupons you can use right now@valpak.com Valpak there's definitely something in it for you.
- [72:46]
Sports Promo Announcer
The world's best ski and snowboard athletes are chasing medals. Now you can follow their every move. Join Insider, the official US Ski and Snowboard fan loyalty program, and get premium viewing at World cup ski events, exclusive athlete meetups, discounts from brands you love, and a custom welcome gift mailed direct to your doorstep. This winter, show your support as they race for the podium. Head to insider.usski and snowboard.org and join today.
- [73:15]
Sophie Cunningham
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.