Sharp or Square: NFL Week 17 Reaction

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: December 29, 2025
Episode Theme:
Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter react to NFL Week 17, breaking down major games, betting angles, sharp/square decisions, and offering candid reflections on their picks. This episode focuses on pivotal games for the playoff races, performances by key players, and under-the-radar betting strategies, all with their signature candor and wit.

Main Themes & Episode Overview

• Dissection of major Week 17 games: Eagles-Bills, Steelers-Browns, Jaguars-Colts, Patriots-Jets, Saints-Titans, and others.
• Which bets were sharp (wiseguy-approved) or square (public-backed).
• Analysis of player performances and coaching decisions impacting betting outcomes.
• Notable trends, divisional quirks, and early leans for Week 18.
• “Heroes and Shames” for the week.

Key Game Breakdowns & Insights

1. Seahawks at Panthers

• Result: Seattle covers (-7.5)
• Simon's "Simon Says" pick comes through, attributing win to Seattle's defense and Bryce Young's struggles:
  • “Sam Darnold was horrible. Just… yeah, couldn’t hit open guys, kept taking bad sacks, went onto the ball too long…” (05:37, Simon)
  • “Seattle’s defense… they just travel. It’s crazy how good they are on the road defensively.” (06:23, Simon)
• The defense created turnovers, giving Seattle short fields. Despite injuries, Seahawks controlled the game.
• Timestamps: 04:33–07:52

2. Saints at Titans

• Result: Titans blow 13-0 lead; Saints rally to win.
• Chad confesses betting on the Titans again despite a personal ban:
  • “Chad, you have one job. What is your one job?” (10:12, Simon)
  • “Don’t bet the Tennessee Titans. That, it’s actually true.” (10:21, Chad)
• Tyler Shuck's (Saints rookie QB) comeback credited, now +130 for Rookie of the Year — “he’s the man in this game” (11:31, Simon).
• Titans’ repeated collapses draw heavy criticism and self-irony:
  • “It was literally the only job I gave you this year. Just don’t let us put Tennessee in the contest.” (12:38, Simon)
• Timestamps: 09:52–14:19

3. Steelers at Browns

• Result: Browns win as home dogs, cover spread.
• Early Browns lead, defense holds off Steelers despite QB Shador Sanders’ inconsistencies.
  • “Shedor Sanders in a rainstorm floated a wounded slippery duck… Fannin twisted his body, twisted his groin, caught the ball, landed on the goal line, split two defenders…” (15:18, Chad)
• Simon raises concerns about Steelers’ play-calling and Aaron Rodgers’ bizarrely conservative game:
  • “Every time took the quick check down… just trying to guess where they're going…” (16:21, Simon)
  • “This is why people lose their mind watching these games… the NFL is fixed… it felt so bizarre…” (16:23, Simon)
• Defensive dominance credited:
  • “It’s always their defense that shows up big time. The Browns did today.” (18:17, Simon)
• Timestamps: 14:21–19:46

4. Eagles at Bills

• Result: Eagles survive, Bills lose despite late surge.
• Recurring motif: “Mistakes swing momentum more than big plays.”
  • “...mistakes swing momentum more than big plays. Mistakes. You see it with penalties, you see it with fumbles. Those are the things that end up killing teams…” (20:13, Chad)
• Analyzing Allen’s fumble, missed extra point, and failed two-point conversion.
  • “I live bet the Bills moneyline at +330 in the first half. So that two-point conversion was a real kick in the dick.” (19:59, Chad)
• Simon: Eagles’ offense still off, but defense improving.
  • “Something’s been off [with Eagles’ offense] all season. Their defense has just got consistently better every week.” (21:30, Simon)
• Second half Eagles offense anemic; Hurts 0-7, only 17 yards after halftime (23:55, Chad).
• Timestamps: 19:46–25:58

5. NFC South Dumpster Fire: Panthers, Bucs, Playoff Outlook

• Allison Norris asks about worst division in NFL.
• Simon: “This is what I live for. I hate these people that want to reseed the playoffs. No, you win your shitty division, you deserve to be in with home field.” (32:39)
• Chad & Simon marvel at Panthers’ bad but still-playoff-bound fate; Bucs continue meltdown:
  • “The Bucs...continues to be the same. Take an early lead and then blow the game. And they completely blew this game today.” (32:38, Chad)
• Timestamps: 31:55–34:34

6. Rundown: Giants, Raiders, Jets/Patriots, Colts/Jaguars & More

• Gambling angles, division quirks; Chad & Simon reevaluate picks they regret or are glad to have skipped.
• Patriots rookie Drake May dominates, now in MVP contention:
  • “All Drake May did was throw five touchdowns to five different receivers, go over 4,000 yards, they clinched the AFC East… he humbly said… 'I am not in [Brady and Bledsoe’s] category.'” (39:24, Chad)
• Jaguars’ playoff push credited to Trevor Lawrence’s resilience and efficient coaching:
  • “Credit to Trevor Lawrence…they kept coming back, and Trevor Lawrence was just making good throws in clutch situations…” (43:13, Chad)
• Timestamps: 34:51–45:53

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On streaky betting with the Titans:
  • Simon: “It was literally the only job I gave you this year… Just don’t let us put Tennessee in the contest.” (12:38)
• On mistakes vs. big plays:
  • Chad: “Mistakes swing momentum more than big plays… Those are the things that end up killing teams more than AJ Brown making an unbelievable play…” (20:13)
• On the chaos of the NFC South:
  • Simon: “I hate these people that want to reseed the playoffs. No, you win your shitty division, you deserve to be in with home field in round one.” (32:39)
• On Eagles-Bills adjustment:
  • Chad: “The Eagles had 174 yards in the first half. In the second half, I think they had 17.” (23:55)
• On the perseverance of Derrick Henry:
  • Simon: “This man is just, he’s the best. It’s so incredible watching him… 216 yards, four touchdowns. Once again, insane.” (54:05)

Heroes and Shames

Shame of the Week

• Simon: Baker Mayfield & the Buccaneers for their persistent collapses.
  • “Shame on you, Baker. It's just total letdown after letdown… he's just so bad right now. He's so inaccurate.” (46:01)
• Chad: Tennessee Titans defense
  • “Shame, shame, shame on the Tennessee Titans… Second half, 24 points allowed, fourth quarter, 14 points allowed…” (47:28)

Hero of the Week

• Simon: Derrick Henry (Ravens)
  • 216 rushing yards, 4 TDs, climbing into top 10 all-time rushing yards list.
  • “Derrick Henry, hero of the week… he’s now in the top 10 of rushing yards. It’s just incredible watching him.” (52:21)
• Chad: Brian Flores (Vikings Defensive Coordinator)
  • Shut down high-powered Detroit Lions, kept team spirited with no QB help.
  • “If they actually do get a quarterback and Brian Flores does stay, I would be really excited if I were a Vikings fan because they played with such passion and spirit and strategy…” (54:36)

Early Week 18 Leans & Sharp-Square Decisions

• Panthers +3.5 at Bucs:
  • Both hosts taking Panthers early, citing perpetual fade of the Bucs and value in the number.
  • “I didn’t care what the number was going to be. I was going to blindly bet the Panthers. I just… have zero faith in the Bucs.” (58:06, Simon)
• Steelers +3 vs. Ravens:
  • Classic Mike Tomlin “rah-rah” spot; both acknowledged it’s a square bet but can’t resist.
  • “There’s nothing to process… people listen to the show, they knew immediately we’d be betting Pittsburgh at that number…” (58:58, Simon)
• Vikings -5.5 vs. Packers:
  • Simon surprised line wasn’t higher; expects Minnesota to move up as Green Bay may rest players.
  • “They opened Minnesota five and a half. I could only see that getting up to seven…” (61:48, Simon)
• Bengals -7 vs. Browns:
  • Quick strike: Bengals “juggernaut” at home, Cleveland’s defense doesn’t travel.
• Chargers -5.5 at Broncos:
  • Watch for Herbert’s status; line has value if Chargers play starters.

Additional Notes & Fun Moments

• Running segment with live Bears/Niners betting and score updates.
• Frequent self-deprecation and tone of exasperation — especially about repeated mistakes with Titans.
• Insistence that divisional games are always weird, historical trends rule over logic at times.

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Seahawks-Panthers: 03:43–07:52
• Saints-Titans: 09:52–14:19
• Steelers-Browns: 14:21–19:46
• Eagles-Bills: 19:46–25:58
• Panthers-Bucs/NFC South: 31:55–34:34
• Patriots-Jets: 39:24–41:49
• Colts-Jaguars: 43:13–45:53
• Heroes/Shames: 46:01–56:09
• Early Week 18 Leans: 57:52–62:38

Final Takeaways

• Overall episode tone: Wry and energetic; both hosts are frank about regrets, humble about misses, and quick to highlight the quirks and narratives that make NFL betting humbling and fun.
• Practical advice: Week 18 lines will be volatile; grab early value, but beware of who’s sitting and playing for what.
• Signature wit:
  • “This might be as good as it gets, baby.” (60:01, Chad)

If you haven’t listened, this summary captures the energy, sharp/square banter, and practical wagering lessons you’ll find throughout the episode.