NFL Week 18 Bets: Seahawks-Niners, Panthers-Bucs, Lions-Bears, Ravens-Steelers, Packers-Vikings and more

Summary

Sharp or Square | NFL Week 18 Bets

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: December 30, 2025
Presented by: Hard Rock Bet & The Volume

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Overview

In this episode, Chad Millman and Simon Hunter take a game-by-game tour through the NFL Week 18 slate, breaking down their favorite bets, wiseguy angles, and sharp vs. square perspectives. With playoff implications, contract incentives, and shifting lines due to resting players, Week 18 presents both pitfalls and value for bettors. Chad and Simon blend stats, trends, personal leans, and a few heated debates as they shape their early picks and strategies for the contest slate.

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Show Highlights & Key Segments

[03:00] Contest Recap & Bears Trade Hypothetical

• Chad emerges from a COVID bout, recaps their 2-3 week, and shouts out contest leader "the big Y."
• Chad’s GM Experiment: Using ChatGPT to propose a Bears trade for Maxx Crosby.
  • “If I were GM of the Bears, how could I make a trade for Max Crosby work?” — Chad (04:48)
  • Simon notes, “This is Khalil Mack all over again. Go get the guy from the Raiders.” (06:21)

[08:30] Contract Incentives

• Chad plans to pepper contract incentive plays throughout—sometimes to Simon’s comic frustration.
• Quote: “Do not tell me Rico Dowdle needs seven more yards to get an incentive. I'm gonna lose my mind. Don't do this.” — Simon (09:03)

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Game-by-Game Betting Breakdown

[08:46] Panthers at Buccaneers (CAR +2.5)

• Early Sharps and both hosts are on the Panthers, despite public action backing Bryce Young.
• Panthers have covered after every loss this season as a dog (7-0 ATS after a loss).
• “Baker Mayfield is 22-36 ATS at home… the second worst profitable QB in the history of football at home.” — Simon (10:03)
• Both hosts bet CAR +3.5 early; still betting moneyline and player props (Rico Dowdle incentives).
• Sharp/Square Verdict: Sharp side still Panthers, but market growing wary as number crashes.

[13:49] Seahawks at 49ers (SF +1.5)

• Massive line flip, now Niners as a home dog. Chad leans SF, citing Shanahan’s strong track record as a home dog.
• Simon: “If you just go through Sam Darnold’s career… it was his 7th and 10th worst games of his career against this Niners defense.” (15:00)
• Brock Purdy’s home dominance highlighted (11-3 career in December or later).
• Sharp/Square Verdict: Sharp now on Niners with line flip and public chasing Seattle.

[17:35] Saints at Falcons (ATL -3)

• Falcons coming off prime time win, Saints have covered 5 in a row ATS with QB Shuck.
• “Since 2021, the Saints are 13-0 ATS on the road as a 3+ point dog against divisional opponents.” — Simon (20:29)
• Shuck (Saints rookie QB) went from 300:1 Rookie of the Year odds to currently favored.
• Simon is waiting for +3.5 to go heavy on Saints; too emotionally attached to fade “his guy.”
• Sharp/Square Verdict: Saints sharp if/when +3.5 hits.

[23:31] Browns at Bengals (CIN -7.5)

• Both bet CIN -7 early, fading a Browns defense that struggles on the road.
• “Since last year Cleveland is 0-6 ATS after a straight up win, failing to cover by 11 PPG.” — Simon (24:04)
• Bengals offense rolling since Burrow returned.
• Sharp/Square Verdict: Sharp on Cincy, even with a late line move.

[26:21] Cowboys at Giants (NYG +4.5)

• Market drop from DAL -5.5 to -3.5 or -4 at some books.
• Both hosts admit to having little feel; Simon notes professionals must have an angle on the Giants.
• “This is the exact type of game Dallas wins by 30… but I can’t see Dak not going all out trying to pad his stats.” — Simon (27:03)
• Sharp/Square Verdict: Pass, tread lightly.

[27:36] Texans at Colts (HOU -10)

• Riley Leonard starts for Indy, but both hesitant to back Houston's inconsistent offense at huge favorites.
• “Colts hit win total on Nov. 9th and haven’t won a game since.” — Chad (28:53)
• Lean Colts (double-digit dog), but not a priority.
• Sharp/Square Verdict: Avoid; number too high for shaky Houston.

[29:46] Titans at Jaguars (JAX -)

• Both refuse to bet Tennessee after recent heartbreaks.
• Question if there’s even an outside shot at the Jags’ seeding—ultimately dismissed as too obscure.
• Sharp/Square Verdict: Skip.

[35:00] Packers at Vikings (MIN -6.5)

• Huge move from MIN -5.5 to -6.5 as pros fade uncertainty under center for Green Bay.
• Expectation is both teams rest starters; Minnesota defense will play hard.
• “I would still take this along, it’s under seven on Minnesota, but we’re just simply backing Flores and this defense.” — Simon (36:19)
• Prop Note: Josh Oliver 2+ TDs = $250k incentive (37:23)
• Sharp/Square Verdict: Semi-sharp with MN, but lots of uncertainty.

[37:58] Chargers at Broncos (DEN -12.5)

• Trey Lance starts for LAC, but Simon loves the Chargers plus big points.
• “Bo Nix is 2-9 as a favorite this year… just feels like a ton of points with a mobile quarterback.” — Simon (38:23)
• Chad agrees value is on Chargers, questions if it’s top 5 play material.
• Sharp/Square Verdict: Chargers plus the points is sharp.

[40:23] Chiefs at Raiders (KC -6.5)

• Discussion on KC’s draft motivations and lack of faith in either side; both lean Chiefs due to defense.
• “Feels like there’s other awful games I’d rather bet and have to watch.” — Simon (41:18)
• Player Prop Note: Hollywood Brown incentives up to $750k in game (42:29)
• Sharp/Square Verdict: Avoid.

[43:40] Jets at Bills (BUF -7)

• Expected QB rest (Allen), but public/wiseguy money moves number toward Buffalo.
• “Jets are on a historic run. First team in 80 years to lose five straight by 20+ points.” — Simon (44:50)
• No confidence in Jets, even against Bills backups.
• Sharp/Square Verdict: No bet; if forced, favor the Bills.

[44:50] Commanders at Eagles (PHI -7)

• Chad: “Philly needs a game to regain offensive confidence.”
• Simon: “I don’t trust it. These games are very tricky… if the Bears are up big, why would Eagles not rest starters?”
• Recommendation: Back Commanders (+7) in pools due to possible Philly resting scenario.
• Prop Note: Von Miller needs 1 sack for a $500,000 bonus (46:40)

[47:06] Lions at Bears (CHI -2.5 → -3)

• Bears favored at home—line movement attributed to sharp action.
• Chad bullish on Bears’ confidence after Niners game; Simon expects regression and likes Detroit at +3.
• “If it was still a pick, I could be on the Bears. But now we’re hitting the 3, you have to take the Lions at that number.” — Simon (49:04)

[51:44] Rams at Cardinals (LAR -7) (Chad's Choice)

• McVay says Rams “need to play better”—all starters expected to play.
• Chad: “This is a normal handicap, not a ‘Week 18 weirdness’ handicap.” (52:12)
• Cardinals have been getting blown out big late season.
• Both expect Rams to cover handily; Simon taking a flyer on Stafford for MVP (“I just can’t wrap my head around May being such a big favorite… Stafford not dead yet.” 55:26)

[58:56] Patriots at Dolphins (NE -11.5)

• Drake May's MVP bonanza leads to big number for Pats; both wary.
• Simon lays points with NE but “no confidence in this Miami team after a win, going on the road in freezing cold.”
• Sharp/Square Verdict: Reluctant lean Pats at -10.5/-11.

[60:46] Ravens at Steelers (BAL -3.5) (Simon Says)

• Tomlin as home dog = historically golden spot.
• “Since 2005, the underdog in this series is 30-12-3 ATS, 71%... Tomlin is 25-7-3 ATS as a dog vs. Harbaugh.”—Simon (62:43)
• “We have all the trends… we know this is the exact spot.” (64:02)
• Value in Steelers +3.5 as line moves on “DK” injury (likely referring to WR Deonte Johnson).
• Simon Says Best Bet: Steelers +3.5

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Incentive Props:
  “Do not tell me Rico Dowdle needs seven more yards to get an incentive. I'm gonna lose my mind. Don't do this.”
  — Simon, on Chad’s enthusiasm for contract prop bets (09:03)

• On Recurring Sharps' Angles:
  “Baker Mayfield is 22-36 ATS at home… 2nd worst profitable QB in history at home.” — Simon (10:03)
  “Since 2021, Saints are 13-0 ATS as a 3+ point dog on the road in the division.” — Simon (20:29)
  “Since last year Cleveland is 0-6 ATS after a straight up win, failing to cover by 11 ppg.” — Simon (24:04)
  “Tomlin is 25-7-3 as a dog against Harbaugh.” — Simon (62:43)

• On Bears’ Trajectory:
  “I came away from that game [vs. SF] so encouraged… We went toe-to-toe with one of the best. I came out thinking, we never have to worry about being out of a game.” — Chad (48:17)

• On Emotional Investment:
  “I’m obviously too biased with this game. People know I’m all in on Shuck. If I get three and a half, I’m hammering the Saints side.” — Simon (19:12)

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Best Bets & Summary

Simon Says: Steelers +3.5 (64:02)
Chad’s Choice: Rams -7 (51:44)

Other Notable Leans:

• Panthers at any number (+2.5 or better)
• 49ers as home dog
• Saints +3 (ideally +3.5)
• Bengals -7.5
• Chargers +12/13 if the line keeps climbing
• Lions +3
• Patriots -10.5/-11 (grudgingly)

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Overall Tone & Style

The episode is a rapid-fire, no-nonsense guide to the insanity of Week 18, full of banter, sarcastic asides (“Do not tell me Rico Dowdle needs seven more yards...”), and candid self-reflection on past mistakes. Both hosts blend handicapping rigor with a gambler’s realism, always mindful of contest strategy, market signals, late information, and the quirks of NFL incentives and coaching motivation. The episode ends with reminders of the volatility and oddball potential of Week 18, with a promise for their final five picks episode to come on Thursday.

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Useful Timestamps Reference

• Contest/Gimmicks Intro: [03:00]
• Panthers-Bucs: [08:46]
• Seahawks-49ers: [13:49]
• Saints-Falcons: [17:35]
• Browns-Bengals: [23:31]
• Cowboys-Giants: [26:21]
• Texans-Colts: [27:36]
• Packers-Vikings: [35:00]
• Chargers-Broncos: [37:58]
• Chiefs-Raiders: [40:23]
• Jets-Bills: [43:40]
• Commanders-Eagles: [44:50]
• Lions-Bears: [47:06]
• Rams-Cardinals: [51:44]
• Patriots-Dolphins: [58:56]
• Ravens-Steelers: [60:46]

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Listen for more detail and the final five picks later in the week!

Transcript

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[Chad Millman]

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[Simon]

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[Chad Millman]

Sharper Square, the podcast presented by Hard Rock Bat. We are part of the Volume Podcast network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my bff, my companion, my compadre coast professional better Simon. Hello Simon.

[Simon]

Chad, how we doing, dude?

[Chad Millman]

I feel pretty good. I feel alive again. Feel I'm. I'm 36 hours removed from my deathbed with COVID I've moved on. We went 2 and 3 last week in our five favorite picks. Don't forget those picks, the results, everything where we are in standings available to everyone to see in the Sharper Square contest page. For those who showed up, shout out to the contest player named the big Y who is currently number one in our contest with 16 total wick. Listen there, listen. It's lingering, but it's not contagious. Okay? With 16 total wins, five weeks remaining in the context we won with the Browns and the Seahawks. We lost with Titans, Bills and Bears. Dude, that was one of the best games of the year. That might be why I still felt a little bit shitty on Monday because I stayed up for that game. Simon, I teased this a little bit on on Sunday night on the show. We talked about the Bears, we talked about the Raiders, their Max Crosby issue. I have a solution that will put the Bears in the Super Bowl. I ran it through Chat GPT this morning and it totally works. Are you ready?

[Simon]

Hit me with it.

[Chad Millman]

My prompt was if I were GM of the Bears, how could I make a trade for Max Crosby work? And I told ChatGPT, consider the salary cap, consider dead cap, consider all financial issues, consider the value that would be required from the Raiders based on previous trades for players of this value. And I said I was willing to include DJ Moore because my thinking is next year. Luther Burden, Roma Dunese, those are the primary receivers for the Bears. So DJ Moore, who's expensive, can also be moved, right? He's all of a sudden a little bit unnecessary.

[Simon]

You don't have to defend your position. Just kidding. Live through it, my friend.

[Chad Millman]

Chat GPT was very excited and thought I was brilliant. Okay? It believes the deal could work financially if more restructures his contract before the trade and Crosby after the trade, the Bears would have to give up a first, a second in 2026 and a 2027 second round. Maybe a sweetener of a fourth or a fifth in 2026. I also asked Crosby, I also asked GPT if Crosby is good enough like over the next three to four years. He's in his peak window right now, 26 to 28. He's 28 years old, but they still chat. GPT said he would still be at an elite level of playing over the next three to four years. So I feel like I've done Ryan Pace's job. Go make it happen. Bears in the super bowl next year.

[Simon]

You didn't even talk about. Just history repeats itself, right? This is Cleo Mackle over again. Go, go get the guy from the Raiders.

[Chad Millman]

That's right.

[Simon]

Bring him to the Bears Chat. Don't need a dumbass computer to tell you all this. You, this is gonna happen. I've already seen the future, but as an Eagles fan, I'm being selfish and I'm hoping we get them too. But I just think him, the Bears, it just seems like a match made in heaven. And you saw the one thing you're missing in that game. You don't have an athletic pass. Yeah. Take on a quarterback even like Purdy. So that was, that's literally why you guys lost that game. You just had a safety on him. He got away from it. You had him sacked. Got away from where? I rushed for a touchdown. It's just, it's, it's brutal. We talk all the time that quarterback, offensive lineman and then D end are always the top three most important draft picks. And you, you basically have nailed the offensive line, the quarterback. You just need that D end.

[Chad Millman]

Let's go get him. Double X. Double X. Max Crosby. That's the reason why we're 47 and 38 through 17 weeks instead of 48 and 37 because we went two and three because the Bears lost by four and we had three and a half in the contest. This is our Tuesday show. We're going to go over the entire slate. It's also the last weekend for players to reach contract incentives. It's become an annual betting ritual. So when relevant, the ones that I've been able to find, I'm going to try to highlight those. Don't forget, watch the Sunday show for our final five picks. You can watch all of our stuff at YouTube. Sharper Square. Subscribe like this video also on audio. Download a set, Apple, Spotify, wherever you get your pods. Okay, Simon. Huge Saturday slate. It's going to decide some divisions, going to decide some seatings in the conference. Also some player incentives. Fun ones to look at for this game. Carolina at Tampa Bay. This number is down to two and a half. It moved through the three open three and a half on Sunday. We both Liked it at three and a half. Got down to two and a half for today. Majority of the tickets coming in on the Panthers so not surprising. Incentives to watch. Okay. Incentives to watch which could play into the game script. We need as Panthers betters. Rico Dowdle needs 7 yards total to reach 1350 for the season. Earn him a million dollars if he gets one more td.

[Simon]

Chad, you got to scratch on these. They cannot be like that. How is that going to help anyone that we could now need seven more yards?

[Chad Millman]

Guy, I'm giving you the whole picture.

[Simon]

You cannot do this. The whole show. I refuse to sit here.

[Chad Millman]

I don't, I don't have it for the whole show.

[Simon]

Do not tell me, Rico. Debbie needs seven more yards to get an incentive. I'm gonna lose my mind. Don't do this.

[Chad Millman]

He needs one more touchdown. One more touchdown to get another 250. My point is you can play the anytime touchdown but it's going to be worth parlaying it with whatever yardage totals you want to parlay it with. Because he's going to be getting that million dollar bonus as well. That's my point.

[Simon]

I know you're gonna make me lose my mind though. If they're all like that. I think we're on the same page. We know Panthers are gonna be the public side but what are we supposed to do here? People know this show. They know us. This is thank God we can avoid at least in the contest and it's a Saturday game. Yeah, but I love it. I love it. I bet it. We think we both bet the three when it on Sunday night we got.

[Chad Millman]

The three and a half and I bet the money line and now I'm gonna bet Rico Dowdle parlays.

[Simon]

And I'm, I'm right there with you on the Panthers. Like I, I bet it. I, I, I am shocked. The public are so heavy on the side. I just thought there'd still be some Baker truthers out there. But it seems like that ship has totally burned. I mean they are. This has to be the lowest possible time we've been able to buy Baker since he's probably been on this Bucks team since maybe his first start. Like this just is rock bottom and the numbers are insane how scared they are. I think people already know our Panthers numbers, right? The Panthers 7 and oh this season after a loss against the spread as an underdog. They've been an absolute machine. You know they are covering those spreads after a loss by 11 points per game. It's just a thing we've talked about all season. We've just fade them back back in the next week. It's been one of the easier things and why we have that winning record. It's been a very lazy trend. But it's been hitting like crazy. So I once again shocked the public is backing Bryce Young. He threw for what, 56 yards. You said Chad last week. It was ridiculous, nightmare. But the Baker stats are. I'll give them to you. He is horrible, horrible at home. Baker like we talk there all the time. There's all these crazy Trends. He is 22 and 36 against the spread in his career at home. That is the second worst profitable quarterback in the history of football at home.

[Chad Millman]

That's crazy.

[Simon]

Number one is Jay Cutler, which was actually pretty funny.

[Chad Millman]

Jay Cutler. Jay Cutler. Ready? I don't care.

[Simon]

At home against his own divisional opponents. Baker 5 and 14 against the spread since 2020 is 2 and 12 against the spread at home as a favorite against a divisional opponent. It's just a nightmare and tons of terrible Todd Bowles stats. Basically Todd Bowles in a must win playoff game in his career. So you know these late in the season type of games and it feels like he's been coaching forever. So this is since 2005. He is 25 and 37 straight up in this exact spot. It's one of the worst marks by any head coach. If you bet 100 bucks on each time to fade him, you would be down. Or if you bet 100 bucks on him every time in this exact spot, you'd be down $2,200. It's just we have to blindly bet it. Like I'm trying to give you all the stats. We just have to buy Carolinas so we love them. We know it's the public side. At least we both have good numbers. I hope people listen this Sunday and got a good number. I. I am with Chad though I would take the money line as well. I wouldn't let the two and a half scare you off. I'd still bet that we talk all the time at such a key number. But the NFL messed up with this game. I think we both know that they did not think the Falcons were win. Now even if the the Panthers lose this game, they can still make the playoffs. If the Falcons beat the Saints on Sunday. So a bizarre game. Honestly Chad, like a game I'm. I'm not putting too much into because it's moved off the three. But I am still on the Panthers. Especially hearing all those stats. I really gives me confident back in.

[Chad Millman]

Them and you'll also be Enrico Dowdle anytime. Touchdown. With a parlay of Panthers money line and Rico Dowdles, you know, over rushing yards, passing yards in the game, receiving yards in the game. Seattle at San Francisco, very strange game. San Francisco is now one and a half point underdog at home. Line flip three point move. Sunday night after the Bears game, this moved from 1 1/2 to Niners to 1 1/2. Seahawks getting the majority of the bets are the San Francisco 49ers. So this tells me the wise guys were coming in on the Seahawks. The Seahawks offense is not the Bears. We know that. And the Niners did stop the Bears running game. So I actually, I kind of lean Niners here because now the line is flipped in their direction and they're the underdog, which has been a pretty good pattern for us this year. And I like Kyle Shanahan as an underdog. I like Kyle Shanahan as an underdog at home. But this Seahawks defense has been so good on the road.

[Simon]

They have. But I think, I think you're making the sharp read here. Like the line flipped. We both said we like this Seattle, especially when they opened at the three. It's flipped now and it's, it's one and a half. And you know, the 49ers team, I really cannot believe they won that Bears game shot. I know if I was a Bears fan, I would be pissed about that CJ face mask call on a pick that kind of flipped the whole game right in. Yeah, but Purdy didn't have the silverback gorilla Trent marking that line. He didn't have Kittle no Iuk. I mean, it is bizarro world what the 49ers have done. It's the reason Kyle Shanahan is now, you know, the second odds on favorite to get coach of the year. It's been really impressive what he's done and I, I love that spot so much for that Bears team. Just because I was like, oh man, this offensive, they're going to be able to attack the solid defense, right? A lot of the strengths of the Bears, they're going to be able to take advantage of. I did not see that type of Caleb Williams game coming. That was with the pressure. The number one seed in the line. If you're a Bears fan, that was like, that's the best game he's ever played in his career. And yeah, even Chad now is saying Troy Aikman, he is now a Caleb Williams guy. So he's finally come to the real side with Caleb because that was everything you could hope for if you're a Bears fan. That was the moment. And in this game here, like we've talked about, how do we not fade Sam Darnold? I don't know if people remember last year. We were. We were all about Sam Darnold heading into the late season. Then we remembered it's Sam Darnold. He chokes in these exact type of scenarios. And even more so if you just go through Sam Donald's career. He has faced this 49ers team twice. It was his seventh and 10th worst game of his career. He had a success rate of 37% in his first matchup and 41% in his second matchup. So basically completing below 50% of his passes in both matchups against this Niners defense before Salah came back. So I love this Niners team. And Chad kind of nailed it too with talking about when the line moved here. Purdy, in his career against the, the Seahawks, he's 6 and 1 inch career when the spread is under 3 or less. So if he's a dog or under a favorite of three or less, he's three, you know, straight up three, three, zero against the spread. So the, the Niners tend to own the Seahawks here. We talk all the time about these weird divisional matchups and it's even more so when they become a dog. So Shanahan, this is, this is the spot. Like this is really, you know, feels like they're like Chad said, this is the perfect defense to give them issues. I still think this defense can be attacked. We've seen them play good offense. I mean, even if you go back to that Baker game, what was that week, two or three offenses that can pass the ball with receivers can move it against them. This, this Niners team, I mean Brock Purdy, if he was healthy all season, he would be in the conversation for mvp. So it's. It's crazy how good the Snyders offense is. And plus one and a half on the, on the 49ers. That feels like a steal.

[Chad Millman]

I'm so glad you brought up Sam because Sam Darnold needs 150 yards to hit 4,000 for the year, which will earn him $500,000. Also needs three touchdowns for another five. But it's interesting to me because that feels like the exact line of demarcation on a sand on a bad Sam Darnold game. Like that's you'd expect him to go under this.

[Simon]

And flip side, Brock Purdy, nine and eight in his career in December. That's 11 and three. That's a, that's 11 three straight up in December or later in five. Zero in January. Later when he's playing at home. Brock Purdy is dominant at home.

[Chad Millman]

He's the opposite of Sam Darnold, does not flinch and has no fear. The bigger the game is, the bigger the moment is where we've seen Sam Darnold. This is not meant to be an indictment. It is just relaying the facts. He has not performed well in these scenarios. New Orleans at Atlanta. Atlanta is a three point favorite at home. Masterful, masterful performance by the Falcons again in prime time against the heavily favored Rams. Which means we fade the Falcons.

[Simon]

We do. We fade the Falcons. And I I was hoping to find some good info on if the, you know, Raheem Morris and the Falcons are terrible in short weeks because I was like oh that must be a big deal, right? It's less time to prepare, blah blah blah. Unfortunately it's not he's four and two straight up and against the spread Raheem Morris on a short week so tends to have the guys prepared. I did see a crazy stat. What was exactly like Kirk Cousins basically our longtime fans probably remember we used to blindly fade Kirk Cousins on Monday night. He started his career 0 and 9 straight up on Monday Night Football. Kirk cousins now is 6 and 1 on Monday night Football. Straight up. Pretty, pretty crazy turnaround. And if you go through he's basically been a dog in five of those. So something to remember for next year if Kirk still has a job. I've seen a lot of people arguing if Kirk probably started all year for Atlanta, they probably would be one of their division.

[Chad Millman]

You do wonder. I, I totally wondered that and I wonder if Kirk Cousins is all of a sudden Raheem Morris's job. Like this has just been a much different team with Kirk Cousins than, than it was with Michael Penck.

[Simon]

But yeah, it's I, I, I'm obviously too biased with this game. I, I don't know how I don't bet, shuck or take the Saints here. People have been following along. They know I'm all in on shuck the hype train. You know he when he joined this team, they've won four straight games as a, as a starter. They're on a five game ATS streak. I really did think this would be a public darling. But it's early money. But a lot of the money is coming on the Falcons. They've moved now from two two and a half up to three. So I almost made the assignment says I think we might be able to get to three and a half. And I gave up that crazy stat basically when the center above a three point dog on the road against a divisional opponent since 2021 they're 13, 0 against the spread. And you know, it's a weird stat. They're just really good at covering on the road. And now we've seen with Shuck, they've been an absolute machine. So we're witnessing history if it works out right. I think Evan had, Evan Abrams had amazing stat. I believe since 2009, no player has ever won offensive rookie of the year at greater than 200, greater than 50 to 1 odds. Chuck was 3001 before his first start and 200 to 1 after his first start. So the books, this will be an all timer for sports books because I, me and Chad, I told him before the show, I remember I bet it and four days later before I gave it on the show, it was still at the same exact number. So the books were getting hammered and they weren't budging. And now he is odds on favorite even, you know, at a plus still plus 105. Just even with Teddy Ro McMillan to be rookie year. So it's history. It really is. We never seen anything like it. And I think the, the biggest dog ever won in this spot. So before the year, people betting I think was Marshall Lattimore, which was like 50 to 1 to be dense. Defensive rookie of the year. So really, really unique spot for Shuck if you could pull this off. But if you have that ticket and you can't cash out or do whatever, you have to take a position, you have to hedge and get your money in some way. If you bet 10 bucks to win 200 or 2,000, whatever you did, you know, bet 100 bucks, you just, you have to hedge in some way. So yeah, shuck. Pretty insane run here, Chad. But like I said, I'm too close to it. If I get to three and a half or even three, I'm hammering the scene side.

[Chad Millman]

It really makes the Panthers game interesting, like a side story. And there's going to be. If they win and Tedro McMillan has an impact, how is that going to play with the voters that he's on a team that finished above 500 and won the division.

[Simon]

You have to give it to him.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, yeah.

[Simon]

The only reason this is tight right now is because I think Tet put up like 10 yards.

[Chad Millman]

Nothing. Yeah.

[Simon]

For 50 yards last week.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, exactly.

[Simon]

That's if he lays another egg, Chad. It's, it's Real possibility doesn't win. He could still get it. It's pretty insane.

[Chad Millman]

By the way, here's a stat that Matt Mitchell just gave me from our friends on X.com at Austin Planet. So I haven't verified this. I'm just trusting Matt Mitchell. But. But you know, it's not, it's not going to get us sued. Since 2018, Atlanta Falcons are 53 and 78 in games played with playoff eligibility. They're 11 and four games played after being eliminated from the playoffs. So if you want to bet the Falcons, do it now before the number moves. Cleveland and Cincinnati. Cincinnati minus seven and a half. Another one we talked about on Sunday. We both bettered at seven thinking the Bengal on the Bengals thinking it would go up. We Bet the Bengals -7. I still like it for a few reasons. Number one, we know the Browns defense does not travel, allowing 30% more points and total yards on their own on the road than at home. And the Bengals really have been a juggernaut in the five games since Joe Burrow came back. Take out that stinker against the Ravens. They lost 24 to nothing. Joe was in his feelings. That was the week of the press conference. It looked like he just didn't want to be there. Who knows what was going on. Five total games, 12 touchdowns, four picks for Joe Burrow. They're averaging, other than that game against the Ravens, 38 points per game. So now they get to go out talking about how important it is for them to be winning at the end of the year. They get to feel good about Joe coming back and putting up highlight numbers. They get to beat the Browns, who we know don't play as well at home, who are coming off a huge win. The only thing they're playing for is the Miles Garrett sack. I still like the Bengals here.

[Simon]

Yeah, love the Bengals. And we talked a little bit about it. We tend to just blindly fade this Browns team off of their wins and that's been working out for us just because it's rookie quarterbacks. Right. They usually can't handle success. And you know, even when you dive into the numbers since the start of last year, Cleveland owns six against the spread after they straight up after a straight up win, failing to cover the spread by almost 11.11 points per game. So they tend to, you know, just lay total eggs in this exact spot. And they have so since last year and we've kind of been fading them for that reason alone. Just these rookies tend not to be able to handle winning, let alone when you're On a really bad team. And we think that this Browns team, that was their super bowl last week, right? That really felt like that. And just the way the players were acting and celebrating afterwards, it really felt like it. And I am in a weird spot here too where I have a large investment on the Browns over four and a half wins. So I'm taking a pretty big position here on the Bengals money line just to hedge that bet just in case. So. I already loved it. Like Chad said, we talked a little bit Sunday night about just grabbing the seven just because it felt like it was going to go up. It has. Hopefully you can still shop around, maybe get the seven. But I, I'm. It feels like the same thing with Seattle last week. I'm not gonna let the hook scare me off. I'll still take the seven if I need to. This just feels like the Cincinnati Bengals rolling.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah.

[Simon]

Miles Garrett, that sack record, that's interesting to me. This is probably the best Bengals offensive line he's faced since. You know, they've had Joe Burrow. Like it's. It's crazy when you down the numbers how much the Bengals offensive line has gotten better this season, improved this season. And I, I attribute a lot to Joe, not just Joe Flacco, but he did feels like he changed the offensive line when he came there. So I don't know this. It's gonna be interesting to see what the over under is on his sack because every week it's basically been -200 on 0.5 half sack. I wonder what the odds are going to be. I'll probably be that scumbag. I'm probably going to take the under here. I just, I don't know. I have a feeling about. It's Miles Gary not getting here, but we'll see. It's. It feels like the Browns are going to do everything their possibility to, you know, whether it's stacking three guys to one side with him. It's just they're going to find a way, right, to try to get him this record.

[Chad Millman]

Simon, if you're looking for sack props later in the show, I have so many incentives to give you. Next game. Dallas at the New York Giants. The Giants are four and a half point underdogs. I don't want to talk about this game.

[Simon]

Well, the Sharps are. They're moving it. This is, this is down now to three and a half at a lot of books. So, you know, crazy line open to five and a half. I honestly thought we would be all over Dallas. Like this is the exact type of games. Dallas wins by 30. They just beat up on bad teams let alone games that just have no meaning. And you know Cowboys finishing the season 8, 8 and 1 just feels like it makes sense. Just feels like so another win total game that matters for me I, I talked before the season really like their win total. This is obviously way before they got rid of their best defensive player maybe the best one of the best defense players in the game. And the Cowboys win total coming the year was seven seven so the rad seven wins you need it. You need the seven most people did have seven and a half. You need this one obviously for the win tool but for me and just looking at this matchup I'm like Chad, like I'll, I'll bet Dallas now especially at -3 and a half but I, I hate this game like you and I just don't want to be putting too much money against a professional. They obviously have a read here on the Giants that I'm totally missing. Maybe it's just darts that great matchup wise against a bad Dallas defense and I'm overlooking it but I just, I can't see Dak not going all out trying to pat his stats in this game.

[Chad Millman]

Another game that feels very uninteresting to me. Indy at Houston. Houston is now a 10 point favorite. The Philip Rivers experiment is over. Riley Leonard is going to be starting in this game. The Texans will be playing all of their starters. If there's any reason I don't love this line for the Texans is I continue to be worried about their offense that you know obviously they couldn't do anything two weeks ago they barely won. They eked out the win against the Chargers. Their offense cratered after the first quarter. It's not like and the Colts like they've been getting bedeviled and damaged but if they're playing everybody 10 feels a little high for this offense but I'm not going to play this game.

[Simon]

I know I feel like such a sucker because I want to take take Houston just fade Riley Leonard and just a cold team that how they not just totally given up. I mean what does this mean to anyone on that team but just one of my favorite things I saw someone posted the Colts hit their win total over on the 9th of November and have not won a game since.

[Chad Millman]

Oh my God.

[Simon]

That's just insane to think about. Just I feel so bad for their fans. I like we talked about it just the worst collapse you can possibly imagine as a fan base and I'm with you Chad. It's like, you know, Riley Leonard, the, the devil. You don't know. Maybe he is the guy to play here because he could be good and maybe he can run, use his legs and run. But it's like, I know I, I know what this Texas team is. They're a dominant defense that I'm pretty sure one or two of those deep balls that he throws and CJ's just been magical with that. He's good at throwing the deep ball, horrible at the underneath stuff. This year it's been bizarre. But I don't know in a game where I could see the Texans getting ready for the playoffs. I'm with you. It's. It's hard to really back aside here because are they going to play guys the second half? Are they resting guys? So if you have to do it for a pickpool, it's ten and a half. Plus ten and a half or plus ten. I guess I'm going to take the Colts but really don't feel good about this one.

[Chad Millman]

I don't think we need to talk much about the next one either because it's Tennessee at Jacksonville and we're not allowed to bet the Titans anymore after last week. And also, and also we know Tennessee is going to be playing all of its starters. I just don't know if that's a very good. I don't know if that's good.

[Simon]

Yeah. Is there still an outside shot? I have to look. I should have looked up for the show. Is there still like a weird outside shot that the, the Jags can get the one seed if, if Denver loses because they. Yeah, because they beat Denver or no. I guess they would need the Patriots to lose as well. So maybe. Probably not. But yeah, that's a weird game. I don't know why the spread was so big, but it must mean the Jags are going full out. But yeah. What are we going to do? Me and Chad probably both want to take Tennessee. We're banned from us. We'll keep it moving.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, we're moving along. Let's. Let's take a listen to a word from our friends at Hard Rock bet. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bat Florida Sportsbook, and the official sportsbook partner of your favorite Florida teams like the Jags, Buccaneers, Heat, Magic and panthers. It's week 18 and playoff spots are on the line. I think you know how it will play out. Build the same game, parlay on Hard Rock BET and turn game day into payday. Or if you're more into hardwood than the gridiron. You can put up shots on the NBA and college every night on Hard Rock. Bet your home for hoops action all season long. You can even combine your football and bet basketball bets. If you've got a week 18 parlay, add an NBA bet or player prop to turn it and turn up the payouts. And if you missed the start of the game, don't worry. Hard Rock that has live in game betting so you're never too late to bet any footballer hoops game all season. Find a winner or grab that player prop you had circled and bet live in just a few easy taps. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a $5 bet and if it hits, you get not only your winnings but also an extra $150 in bonus bets. The Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook app is the only legal sportsbook for whenever you're in Florida and also live in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, Colorado and Michigan. Coming soon to more states too. Plus, Hard Rock Bet offers new promos every single day. So whenever you're listening, just open up the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week, download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit payable in bonus bets. Not a cash offer Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 and over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1-833-Playwise in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9 with it gambling problem, call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia.

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[Simon]

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[Chad Millman]

Max I saw in another game that we talked about on Sunday night, Green Bay and Minnesota, they're visiting. Green Bay is visiting Minnesota. It opened at five and a half. We said grab it. We expected this line to go up. That's what happened. It's moved up to six and a half. Really? This is about. We still don't know who's going to be playing quarterback. We expect it to be Malik Willis for the Packers. Matt LaFleur said Malik Willis could have come back into the game on Sunday night if the wreck if the score was a little bit closer. He's also said they've learned their lesson from last season when they didn't have much at stake in the final game of the year. They lost Christian Watson for the year, up for most of this year to a bad injury and they actually Jordan Love injured his hand. So we know they're probably going to arrest a lot of starters in this game, no matter who's playing quarterback. And we also know that this number has moved to six and a half even though you know, a preponderance of the tickets are coming in on Green Bay, so it's professionals that are moving the money. We're sticking with Minnesota and the Brian Flores defense here.

[Simon]

Yeah, I really would be shocked, honestly, if Green Bay played Malik. It's. He basically whatever he did to his shoulder, he heard it throwing. So we already knew he was coming into that game with an injury and then it's a non contact injury that took him out of that game. Maybe laforge is playing mind games, but there's no way you can risk playing him where Jordan Love. Like you said, it's, it's a tricky injury, right? Concussions, you never know how guys are gonna react, especially after a couple weeks. So I, I think Green Bay goes full protective mode. They only play the lineups they have to play because they don't have guys they can bring off bench. So, you know, expect to see a third string quarterback against a blind Brian Floyd's defense. You like that matchup a lot for Minnesota especially where they're still playing hard. Like we've talked about, doesn't matter who the quarterback has been, who's in and out, their, their defense has been playing hard. So, you know, it's a game that I doubt we'll put in our contest just because there's a lot of unknowns here. But I would still take this along. It's under seven on Minnesota, but yeah, we're just simply back in floors in this defense. There's not much else to grasp with this Vikings offense.

[Chad Millman]

Josh Oliver, Minnesota Vikings tight end, has four touchdowns on the year on 13 receptions. Can Josh Oliver get two touchdowns this weekend? If so, he earned $250,000. Let's have a little fun. Let's Tyler shuck this thing. Let's put a little bit of a taste on Josh Oliver. Two plus touchdowns on Sunday for the Minnesota Vikings. LA Chargers at the Denver Broncos. Broncos are minus 12 and a half. Obviously they have so much to play for. They got to lock in the number one seed. The Chargers have nothing to play for, which is why Trey Lance is starting at quarterback. I watched a little bit of Trey Lance in the preseason. Enough to tell myself I don't hate Trey Lance. But I don't see, at the end of the day, I don't see this being one of our final five.

[Sponsor Voice]

No.

[Simon]

Oh my God. I was hoping you would love this. I love the Chargers here as a.

[Chad Millman]

Okay, okay.

[Simon]

It's Bo Nicks as a big favorite in, in his division. And I think I saw some crazy stat he's like 2 and 9 this season as a favorite when he was, what was he, 8, 0 yet last year as a favorite. So totally came crashing back down to earth. And yeah, this, you know, you could say it's a horrible match for the Chargers. Agree. Like, they're going to be sitting everybody now. They're sitting their backup offensive lineman. So their backups are play like it's, it's going to be disastrous, I'm sure. But this just feels like a ton of points with a mobile quarterback that, you know, we could get the back door easily. It's just. How hard will the Broncos be playing the second half? Right. It's going to be a really unique, interesting spot. And yeah, I, I, it really is about the number here. Like, even with Trey Lance, I didn't make this bigger than 10. It's 12, 12 and a half. A lot of books. I could see all the parlays, all the teasers coming in on the Broncos come Sunday, and we might be able to get to 13, Chad. So I'll be patient here. I'm definitely grabbing the 12 and a half while they're out there, but I can only see this one getting bigger. I'm just not sure, other than professionals who's gonna be better on this Chargers team. So it'll be interesting how the number goes and where the Broncos end up if they end up at 13 or if this starts coming back down a little bit.

[Chad Millman]

Well, like I said, I don't hate it. Like, if I looked at anything, I was leaning Chargers. I just didn't feel like this has top five material. Maybe it does.

[Simon]

Maybe I just, I'm having a hard time thinking of horrible. His team's getting blown out. You know, it just feels like he's such a psycho. I feel like even his backups are going to get up.

[Chad Millman]

Well, you also got to think if this game was being played at full strength, it probably be closer to two and a half or three. So you're telling me Justin Herbert is 10 points against the spread compared to Trey Lance? That does feel unusually high to me. So I agree with you that you're getting a ton of value on the Chargers. So we'll see. We'll see how things go and we'll see how things evolve.

[Simon]

We'll have, I'm interested to see what the lineup is like. That's, that's another thing. If you see a lineup we feel comfortable with, obviously I take a bigger position position. But we're just, we're so early in the week here. We have no idea who's resting, who's actually playing, other than Herbert.

[Chad Millman]

Kansas City at Las Vegas. The Raiders are now six and a half point underdogs. One of these coaches has announced he will be back next year. It is Andy Reid. One of these coaches probably won't be back and it's Pete Carroll, who will also be starting Kenny Pickett. The truth is the Chiefs should probably try to lose here because if they lose and other teams ahead of them lose in draft order, I mean, right now they're 11th in draft order and teams ahead of them are underdogs, obviously this week. And a couple of those teams, if they lose, the Chiefs can sneak into the top 10, which is remarkable to be able to have Patrick Mahomes coming back at some point next year and you're getting a top 10 draft pick.

[Simon]

So.

[Chad Millman]

So, you know, I don't have a, I don't have a thought on the side in this game.

[Simon]

No, I'm, I'll. I'm probably just going to take the Chiefs just because of the defense and, you know, I just don't think Spags is going to lay down here. So, you know, the fact that is. Can he pick it? I guess might be better, honestly, because Gino just can't stop throwing picks. But yeah, it's. It's just an awful game. And I'm with you. Like, there's other awful games I'd rather bed have money on and have to watch. Yeah, this one I'll pass on in. I just feel so bad for your boy Mendoza. If this is where, how he ends up. This is where he goes, the Raiders, this, this organization, man, it just feels so dysfunctional, so far away. And you're right, it feels like there's. Every day you're hearing different league stories about how they don't want to bring back Pete Carroll. So just, I, I mean, it's been like this for the Raiders since that Super Bowl. What was that? 2001. 2000. They've just been a train wreck these last 25 years.

[Chad Millman]

That super Bowl, a quarter of a century ago.

[Simon]

Yeah, it's like, it's just been horrible and I, I just feel so bad for their fan base. They had one good Derek Carr almost MVP year where his leg splits into two pieces.

[Chad Millman]

Oh my God, that was brutal.

[Simon]

Ever since and you know, I just. They, they deserve the number one pick. They've been before the worst team this year. No doubt about it.

[Chad Millman]

If you do want some action in this game, if you do. Hollywood Brown needs one touchdown to earn a $250,000 incentive. Two touchdowns to earn 200. Another 250 grand and 102 receiving yards to earn another 250 grand. So if he has a 103 yard two touchdown day, he's making an extra 750. Someone will be motivated and who knows, maybe Andy Reid builds a game plan to get him downfield. I don't know. But something to watch for. A little taste of something. If you're looking for a good time, don't scoff at me. New York jets at Buffalo Buffalo's seven point favorite. This is a Mitchell Trubisky line. Josh Allen we saw was struggling late in the game. Matt Mitchell posited before we went on the air that they might have gone for the two the Bills because they didn't think Josh Allen could could survive in overtime. Hasn't been announced that he's going to rest but there's no reason for him to play. But we're not betting the jets here.

[Simon]

No. And you know what Josh and I'll do hopefully hopefully to keep a streak live he'll come out, take the first snap and then they'll bring in Mitch.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah I think that's what they're, that's what they've been saying. That's what the the scuttlebutt is.

[Simon]

Yeah keep history going because he's earned it. It's like it's him and Eli man in these streaks Brett far like just lasting in this game at that position you're just getting blindside hit all of it. It's crazy these quarterbacks can hold up but yeah I wanted to honestly bet the jets but the numbers move too much and now it's becoming a Bills number. So I'm right there with Chad. Doesn't matter if it all is all their backups. I still expect the Bills run game to show up. And on the flip side this jets team they just have a total zero at quarterback. It's just if you're third and five or third and six it feels like third and 20. It's just horrible the quarterback play. So yeah just we've talked about the the jets are on a historical run. I think they're the first team in like 80 years to lose four straight or five straight games by over 20 points. Something insane like that. They're just a total train wreck right now of an organization and I know game and came to lie to myself and try to fade them here just going to back Trubisky is a seven point favorite. I can't believe it but that's that's how bad it is for this jets team. It's bad.

[Chad Millman]

Washington at Philly Philly is a seven point favorite at home. I mean you I don't have any thoughts on this game but I can tell you that it Philly needs to have a game that gives them offensive confidence.

[Simon]

Not really. They just had before that Bills game we had big offensive games and that literally has done nothing for someone like me. I said I just I don't trust it. So I know what they're going to do here. It's a game we kind of need to win because if the Bears lose we get the two seed and I much rather play Green Bay than the Rams even though the Rams feel like they're falling apart here. But it's it's a weird, a weird spot in the it's another win total game. Eagles they win this they'll go over their win total. They're sitting at 11. The over under was 11 and a half but yeah I just like we wanted to do the first time the Commanders play if it's Mariota we're getting a big dog here. Yeah you want to take that line. Don't not exactly sure the quarterback's going to be and you know, if it is the backup we're luckily back this Eagles team but it's another game I'm scared of. If the bears are up 35 to 10 which again never know in football. If they're up that big though and entering the third quarter, entering the fourth quarter, why would the Eagles not just start yanking starters because there's nothing to play for at this point. So these games are very tricky in these final weeks where it's all, you know, it's all going to be depending on what other teams are doing in these type of games. So what I've assumed is he was going to prepare like this is a real game. But once again Sierra has come out and said he is the utmost confidence in the backup quarterback and a lot of backup players to be able to win this game as well. So without knowing what the Eagles are going to do and if I had to make a pick pool now I'm going to take the commanders with the plus 7 just in case the Eagles do rush starters.

[Chad Millman]

Simon, you should also take Von Miller to get one sack. He needs to hit one more for the year to earn a $500,000 bonus.

[Simon]

And that is the first time most probably 90% of the fans have heard Von Miller's name this season.

[Chad Millman]

Most people did not even know he was on the Commanders?

[Simon]

Yeah, I. I did. Just because it's a running joke that they basically were like a retirement home this offseason. They just got every veteran known to man to try to make a run, and it just. Everyone got hurt.

[Chad Millman]

I think we got a real game with Detroit at Chicago, and Chicago is a 2 1/2 point favorite. They both. Both coaches have said they're playing to win. The Bears need it for potential seating like we just discussed. The Lions need it for pride, pun intended. And Dan Campbell would sooner quit before he wasn't going to play a game at full tilt. So we got a real handicap, my friend. The line has moved in the bears direction, 1 1/2 to 2 and a half, but only a slight majority of the bets coming in for the Bears. So this feels more like a wise guy move than a public move. The Bears may not have Roma Dunes, A, probably not going to have Luther Burden. What do you think, Detroit? I know what I think, and I don't like to say it because I'm proud of my team, but I don't think they're the team this week.

[Simon]

I don't think we see the Bears win another game this season.

[Chad Millman]

Oh, my God.

[Simon]

I know. It just. It feels that way. That felt like a turning point. Chad. I'm not going to lie.

[Chad Millman]

Where it's like, oh, I disagree on that.

[Simon]

Yeah, you think they win this game, they win a playoff game.

[Chad Millman]

I'm not talking about this game. I think the Lions are the right side in this game. But I came away from that game against the Niners so encouraged. Like, the way they played. Caleb was still missing his easy passes, but when, like, he can make some plays. And I feel like they should come out of that game thinking they went toe to toe with one of the best teams in the conference, and they were one bad sort of alignment away from having a better chance to win that game. I'm not discouraged as a fan coming out of that game at all. All right.

[Simon]

I'm just telling you from a professional standpoint that when I look at this, I'm like, oh, my God, they might not win another game the rest of the year because this is a hard matchup and they have the playoffs and it just feels like. Still losable game in the round one matchup.

[Chad Millman]

Your.

[Simon]

Your defense is horrible. That's been your issue all year. You've lived on the turnovers, and lucky for you, Golf seems like he's got the turnover bug. This dude cannot stop turning the ball over. So I'm simply just playing the number here, it's three now with multiple books. So this number is getting hit by professionals. Now they've bumped it up to three. How do I not take that side? And I'm going to give out these Campbell stats. But I keep saying I hate that I'm doing it because they might be Ben Johnson stats. But it is interesting. Campbell with the Lions 40 straight up, 40 against the spread in week 18. In week 17, 18 in his career, he is 8 and 2 against the spread. That's including not covering last week. Jared Goff. Man, Campbell as a dog. We know the deal. 29 and 14 against the spread. It's like you just got to bet it. And when they end up closing as a dog, they're 23 and 13. So I know it's, it's, it's all these numbers. I keep saying they might mean nothing, but I just have to keep trusting they'll get this offensive going. And against a bad Bears, if I think the Bears can win, Chad, no doubt. I think they are the better team right now. They're clearly a more healthier team even with all their injuries. That offensive line has got a lot of shoes. I just. Can the Bears take advantage? Do you guys have pass rushers that could take advantage of that bad offensive line? And unless golf doesn't turn the ball over, I just feel like this is gonna be a back and forth type of game. So if it was still a pick or minus one on the Bears, I think I could be on the Bears side here. But now we've hitting the three. I mean, come on, you have to take the lines at that number. So it's, it's tough for me. I love this Bears team, but I just, I see it, I hate it when I see these things happen, but I just, I see them kind of faltering here in this exact spot. And they, they need to win it. On my opinion, Chad, they need to win this game and get Green Bay at home. They do not want Stafford coming in with this Rams team.

[Chad Millman]

Oh, yeah, I agree. I, I'd much rather have the packers than the Rams. And we're going to talk about the Rams in a second. I'm just, I'm not worried that anything. I thought you were referring to the Bears confidence cratering. That to me isn't the issue. I think they're going to be highly confident. I think they're going to look at that and be like, guys, we're, we're so ready to be elite. We can play with any team in the NFL offensively, we never have to worry about being out of the game. We never have to worry, no matter what the score is, that we're not going to be able to come back because this offense is so good. So good. That's it. We'll take the lines.

[Simon]

Hey, listen, man. To say that I'm proud of you would be the massive understatement. Composure, communication.

[Chad Millman]

Arizona, the Los Angeles Rams. Los Angeles Rams are seven point favorites right now at Hard Rock bet. This is going to be Chad's choice. Presented by Hard Rock Bet.

[Simon]

Are you sure you want to do this? Are you willing to make a choice?

[Chad Millman]

What choice? We can't run from who we are.

[Simon]

Sharp dudes can just see it, you know what I mean?

[Chad Millman]

When asked if the Rams would play their starters in week 18, Sean McVeigh said, oh, they're playing. We need to play better. So to me, this is a normal handicap, not a week 18 handicap. And let me give you some stats about the Cardinals. They remember in the beginning of the year, we're like, the Cars are playing close. They're playing hard. They started September, October with losses of 1.3 points, 1.4 points and 4 points. Their November December losses have been 22 points, 19 points, 3, 3, 32, 27 and 23. Three of those blowouts losses came in the division. I'm taking the Rams in a get right spot against a team that has no answers defensively and very few answers offensively, as we've seen again and again and again, no matter who they're playing.

[Simon]

Yeah, I'm right there with you. I, I like the Rams. Obviously they, they let me down last night in a big way, but this is the type of game, like McVeigh, you could hear in his voice. He, he is his offense to put up like 35, 40 points.

[Chad Millman]

Yes.

[Simon]

He really is going to play them throughout. In my mind, where he's like, you know what, maybe he'll take out Stafford if it, if he takes one bad hit and they're up by 20 in the third quarter or something like that. But I think he is going to play stars throughout. Like, he just seems so pissed off after that game where I'm not that I think he said that to him, but he basically must have said to him, if you guys win this game, we play well, we can rest the next week. And they totally laid an egg. And the Stafford thing is so bizarre. I was tweeting about a little bit. They made Drake May during the game. He got up to like -300 as a favorite to be MVP. Now he's like, -600. Do you agree with that at all, Chad? Do you think May should be the big favorite? That big of a favorite?

[Chad Millman]

No, because if Stafford goes off again. And don't forget, they almost won that game last night. Like, it's not like they, they completely rolled over in the second half. They played like the Rams that we expect them to be, right? They held the opponents to six points. They scored 24 points. Like, ended up being a much closer game than it should have been. So, no, I don't agree with that.

[Simon]

Everyone like me is looking at, you know, Drake, May had a great season. Can we not have a serious discussion? He had one win against a team with a winning record. That was the Bills. That's. That's a real stat. If you go through their schedule, that's the only one they have against a team above.500 this season. So it's. I just can't wrap my head around it right now. And yeah, I, I'm. I'm enticed to take a little position on Stafford. If you don't have any type of position on mvp, just because it's. We saw last year, right? Lamar. Chad was on the train with Lamar, right? For two months, you thought it was Lamar. He got up to minus 600 that day of the show is what they do. They announced on Espin or some award show. You could have got that morning, Josh Allen at +700. And all of a sudden you saw something leaked. And all of a sudden he flipped to be the favorite by the time the show got announced. So I don't think Stafford's totally dead here. That's like my, my biggest thing in this game. I'm with Chad. Like, I'm gonna put a little future on Stafford just in case. And he comes out, throws four touchdowns here. I, I could see it. Like I talked about. I think it's like he's earned over his career more so than Drake has earned it this year. Drake has had an incredible year, but when you look at the schedule, the years he has ahead to him, I just. How do you not give to Stafford everything he's done? So I can't believe they took it away from. Honestly, they had what, two. Two touchdowns called back. They had, you know, a kick return against them. It was just such. We overreact so much, and so does a sports book.

[Chad Millman]

But he said plus 300 now, by the way. Plus 300.

[Simon]

So it's. Right. So it's moved. It's probably moved a little bit because people are thinking like me. It's like, are we not overreacting too much of this? And we'll see how much Drake May plays in that final game where, you know, he might, he might not play that much. And Stafford can pad the stats even more, which, end of the day, you know, if he throws for four touchdowns this game, he finishes here with 44 passing touchdowns. I feel like that's gonna be pretty hard to vote. Not vote Frame.

[Chad Millman]

I totally agree. The writers at the end of the year like to get really smart and they're going to want to look at all the stats and say, wait a second. Drake Mays played historically the easiest schedule in NFL history. So yeah, they're going to be thinking about the narrative for Matthew Stafford, especially if he lights it up in this game, in the last game of the year.

[Simon]

Sorry about it. Clear. I'm with Chad on the Rams.

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[Trainer Games Narrator]

10 athletes will face the toughest job interview in fitness that will push past physical and mental breaking points. You are the fittest of the fit. Only one of you will leave here with an IFIT contract for $250,000.

[Simon]

This is where mindset comes in.

[Trainer Games Narrator]

Someone will be eliminated.

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Pressure is coming down. Trainer Games on Prime Video January 8th. Watch the trailer on trainergames.com did you.

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Season 2 of Unrivaled Basketball is here and the talent is unreal. Paige Beckers, Nafiza Collier, Kelsey Plumb, Brianna Stewart and more are back to Richard Redefine the game unrivaled basketball season two, sponsored by Samsung Galaxy, tips off January 5 on TNT True TV and HBO.

[Chad Millman]

Max Together Forever Miami at New England Speaking of Drake May the Patriots are eleven and a half point favorites. The Pats will be playing their starters. For how long we don't know. Will Campbell came off IR this week, by the way. I doubt he'll play, but he did it come off IR like the number feels big. It feels like the sort of number you get when you just beat the jets by a million points and Drake may throw five touchdowns and is now the leading contender for mvp. But it's not like Miami isn't going to play its starters and doesn't have an explosive rush game. That can be a weakness of the Patriots. So Feels like a big number to me.

[Simon]

Feels like a big number. But I I said elastic. I'm not trying to fade this Patriots team. They just, they're just mowing along like the offensive. Just a juggernaut. And yes, Quinn years looked better last week against that Bucks defense. But we've seen this Miami team when they get up in the cold up in the north, they just seem to crumble. So we're expecting it to be very cold up in the Northeast it's just been cold and you know, it's too early in the week to know if there's any type of weather coming. But if you, once again, if you had to make a pick for your pickpool, I'll, I'll take the truck I guess and I'll take the Patriots. But you can hear I really want to avoid this game if I can. I just, I'm like you, I really don't want to bend the pictures of this big of a number, but I just have no confidence in this Miami team after a win, going on the road in the freezing cold playing against a Patriots team that it seems like they're going to be playing hard for this one, right? They still have in their back of the mind a chance to get that one seed. So really, really weird game and a weird number like I I thought this would be 14. So I am honestly shocked to see 10 and a half 11 out there on this Patriots team. I'll take it before it moves up.

[Chad Millman]

Last game of the season, prime time game, Sunday night football Baltimore visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh Steelers are three and a half point underdogs. Little surprise this moved up. We both talked about it on Sunday night. We both took the Steelers at plus three. So many sort of narratives that are regular themes in our show. And as we talk about betting the Steelers home underdogs, Mike Tomlin. Rah rah spot, historically great spot. One of the best in the history of the NFL as a head coach at covering this number at home. This game between the Ravens and the Steelers, historically, the underdog is covering this game over the past 20 years. In these battles between Harbaugh and Tomlin, 60%. Add in, we don't know who's going to be playing quarterback yet for the Baltimore Ravens. Add in, we don't know who's going to be quarterback for either of these teams next year because there's a lot of drama going on in Baltimore with Lamar Jackson. We don't know what's going to happen with Aaron Rodgers. So a lot of subplots here. I'm a little surprised the line moved from three to three and a half, to be honest, because I still like the Steelers a lot.

[Simon]

Simon says, give me this Pittsburgh Steelers team plus three and a half. I want to play a game. Simon says, I am like you. I cannot believe the public and the professionals are coming in on this Raven side. You know, it's a little weird. I once was lost, Chad. I am now found. That's how I feel about this game. I cannot believe when I went through our record that we took the Ravens as a five and a half point favorite.

[Chad Millman]

It was stupid.

[Simon]

Yeah, we just were lost and one.

[Chad Millman]

Of our most egregiously bad decisions in the history of our show.

[Simon]

And just not us. We just blindly take this number. That's why I'm making assignment says bro. We have no excuse. We can't avoid it. We are dug in here on Pittsburgh and I'll give out the stats. We love these stats so much. I love them every time I read them since 2005. The underdog in this series, 30, 12 and 3 against the spread, 71. When Mike Tomlin is the underdog against horrible, he is 25, 7 and 3 against the spread. You know, it's just, it's crazy. We talk all the time. Chad said it. When It's. It's above 3, which is the key number in this series. So if it's three or more, the Dog either side the underdog in this series, 24, 5 and 3 against the spot spread when it's Tomlin's team, that's the dog. He is 14, 4 and 2 against the spread when it's bigger than 3. Come on. We just have all the trends and we know the matchup. We know this number's moved honestly to me because of the dk, like DK not being there. I do think it's pointed of the move because they're gonna have to find another way to win. And what I'm gonna hang, hang my hat on here is Pittsburgh's run defense. These last three, four weeks has really been totally different than they were to start the year. They've really found something they've been dominant at stopping the run. Now these last couple weeks, that to me is how you beat this Ravens team. We've seen if you, if you can stop King Henry.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah.

[Simon]

Doesn't matter if it's a banged up Lamar, if it's Hudley here. It's, it's the run game that makes this thing go here. So I think Pittsburgh, Tomlin, this is the exact spot we talked about. They pull teams down to the mud at home. Late December in the cold. I should say January now. Just Chad said it, it's a Tomlin spot. Never going to avoid it. Maybe we're missing here. But I, I do think the numbers move because the professionals think that DK injury is that big of a deal. They've moved this now from two and a half all the way up to three and a half. But that to me is too much of a movement. This should never have gotten above 3. And we'll, we'll take that value here. Like that's a great number to be getting here on Pittsburgh and what should be a very close game. So talk all the time. Even when the Ravens were the best team in football, right. Winning division had like 13 wins. They'd come up to Pittsburgh here and Pittsburgh would need this win to get the nine wins for Tomlin. They'd always get it somehow. So gotta take Steelers here. Just like last week, we blindly fade the Steelers on that spot against Cleveland. No different here. You blindly back the Steelers, you're a long term winner. Taking the steers of the dog here.

[Chad Millman]

All right, so look, Simon says is the Steelers plus three and a half. Chad's choice is the Rams minus seven. We still got a lot of games that could be in contention. When we get down to it on Thursday, we are doing a show Thursday, New Year's Day January 1st will be recording at our normal time. We will record and then I assume Simon, Matt, Mitchell, everyone else listening, we will all settle in to root for the Indiana Hoosiers in the Rose bowl against the Alabama Crimson Tide and future Las Vegas Raider quarterback Fernando Mendoza.

[Simon]

Now, Chad, you know, off the top.

[Chad Millman]

Of your head, I don't. Let me check.

[Simon]

I remember it opened at, what, seven?

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, it was.

[Simon]

I'll. I'll look for you, but, yeah, seven. All right, I know I'm. I. I'm biased here, but it feels like that's the Hoosiers number right there.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah.

[Simon]

Public is going to be all over Bama plus seven. So, yeah, be careful there if you're trying to fade the Hoosiers, but don't fade the Hoosiers.

[Chad Millman]

They're a juggernaut.

[Simon]

There you go.

[Chad Millman]

This has been sharp or square. Presented by Hard Rock bet. We are part of the Volume podcast network. We will be back, like, on Thursday. We'll zero in on some of the games. We'll have our head to head, our brass balls. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like the video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate. Review. Subscribe. Leave us. Five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time.

[Simon]

Love you. This ain't Ray Nitschke and Dick Butkus and Deacon Jones over there.

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So let's start kicking some ass.

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This team is not better than us.

[Simon]

They're not even good.

[Commercial Narrator]

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[Trainer Games Narrator]

10 athletes will face the toughest job interview in fitness that will push past physical and mental breaking points. You are the fittest of the fit. Only one of you will leave here with an IFIT contract for $250,000.

[Simon]

This is where mindset comes in.

[Trainer Games Narrator]

Someone will be eliminated.

[Commercial Narrator]

Pressure is coming down. Trainer Games on Prime Video January 8th. Watch the trailer on trainergames.com did you.

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Season 2 of unrivaled basketball is here, and the talent is unreal. The best women's players on the planet are running it back with even bigger moments and bigger stakes. Don't miss as Paige Beckers, Nafiza Collier, Kelsey Plum, Brianna Stewart, Stewart and Moore take the court and redefine the game. This isn't your regular season. This is unrivaled, where the pace is faster, the energy is higher and every athlete shines. Unrivaled basketball season two, sponsored by Samsung Galaxy, tips off January 5th on TNT, TruTV and HBO Max. This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.