Sharp or Square | NFL Week 18 Bets

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: December 30, 2025
Presented by: Hard Rock Bet & The Volume

Overview

In this episode, Chad Millman and Simon Hunter take a game-by-game tour through the NFL Week 18 slate, breaking down their favorite bets, wiseguy angles, and sharp vs. square perspectives. With playoff implications, contract incentives, and shifting lines due to resting players, Week 18 presents both pitfalls and value for bettors. Chad and Simon blend stats, trends, personal leans, and a few heated debates as they shape their early picks and strategies for the contest slate.

Show Highlights & Key Segments

[03:00] Contest Recap & Bears Trade Hypothetical

Chad emerges from a COVID bout, recaps their 2-3 week, and shouts out contest leader "the big Y."
Chad’s GM Experiment: Using ChatGPT to propose a Bears trade for Maxx Crosby.
- “If I were GM of the Bears, how could I make a trade for Max Crosby work?” — Chad (04:48)
- Simon notes, “This is Khalil Mack all over again. Go get the guy from the Raiders.” (06:21)

[08:30] Contract Incentives

Chad plans to pepper contract incentive plays throughout—sometimes to Simon’s comic frustration.
Quote: “Do not tell me Rico Dowdle needs seven more yards to get an incentive. I'm gonna lose my mind. Don't do this.” — Simon (09:03)

Game-by-Game Betting Breakdown

[08:46] Panthers at Buccaneers (CAR +2.5)

Early Sharps and both hosts are on the Panthers, despite public action backing Bryce Young.
Panthers have covered after every loss this season as a dog (7-0 ATS after a loss).
“Baker Mayfield is 22-36 ATS at home… the second worst profitable QB in the history of football at home.” — Simon (10:03)
Both hosts bet CAR +3.5 early; still betting moneyline and player props (Rico Dowdle incentives).
Sharp/Square Verdict: Sharp side still Panthers, but market growing wary as number crashes.

[13:49] Seahawks at 49ers (SF +1.5)

Massive line flip, now Niners as a home dog. Chad leans SF, citing Shanahan’s strong track record as a home dog.
Simon: “If you just go through Sam Darnold’s career… it was his 7th and 10th worst games of his career against this Niners defense.” (15:00)
Brock Purdy’s home dominance highlighted (11-3 career in December or later).
Sharp/Square Verdict: Sharp now on Niners with line flip and public chasing Seattle.

[17:35] Saints at Falcons (ATL -3)

Falcons coming off prime time win, Saints have covered 5 in a row ATS with QB Shuck.
“Since 2021, the Saints are 13-0 ATS on the road as a 3+ point dog against divisional opponents.” — Simon (20:29)
Shuck (Saints rookie QB) went from 300:1 Rookie of the Year odds to currently favored.
Simon is waiting for +3.5 to go heavy on Saints; too emotionally attached to fade “his guy.”
Sharp/Square Verdict: Saints sharp if/when +3.5 hits.

[23:31] Browns at Bengals (CIN -7.5)

Both bet CIN -7 early, fading a Browns defense that struggles on the road.
“Since last year Cleveland is 0-6 ATS after a straight up win, failing to cover by 11 PPG.” — Simon (24:04)
Bengals offense rolling since Burrow returned.
Sharp/Square Verdict: Sharp on Cincy, even with a late line move.

[26:21] Cowboys at Giants (NYG +4.5)

Market drop from DAL -5.5 to -3.5 or -4 at some books.
Both hosts admit to having little feel; Simon notes professionals must have an angle on the Giants.
“This is the exact type of game Dallas wins by 30… but I can’t see Dak not going all out trying to pad his stats.” — Simon (27:03)
Sharp/Square Verdict: Pass, tread lightly.

[27:36] Texans at Colts (HOU -10)

Riley Leonard starts for Indy, but both hesitant to back Houston's inconsistent offense at huge favorites.
“Colts hit win total on Nov. 9th and haven’t won a game since.” — Chad (28:53)
Lean Colts (double-digit dog), but not a priority.
Sharp/Square Verdict: Avoid; number too high for shaky Houston.

[29:46] Titans at Jaguars (JAX -)

Both refuse to bet Tennessee after recent heartbreaks.
Question if there’s even an outside shot at the Jags’ seeding—ultimately dismissed as too obscure.
Sharp/Square Verdict: Skip.

[35:00] Packers at Vikings (MIN -6.5)

Huge move from MIN -5.5 to -6.5 as pros fade uncertainty under center for Green Bay.
Expectation is both teams rest starters; Minnesota defense will play hard.
“I would still take this along, it’s under seven on Minnesota, but we’re just simply backing Flores and this defense.” — Simon (36:19)
Prop Note: Josh Oliver 2+ TDs = $250k incentive (37:23)
Sharp/Square Verdict: Semi-sharp with MN, but lots of uncertainty.

[37:58] Chargers at Broncos (DEN -12.5)

Trey Lance starts for LAC, but Simon loves the Chargers plus big points.
“Bo Nix is 2-9 as a favorite this year… just feels like a ton of points with a mobile quarterback.” — Simon (38:23)
Chad agrees value is on Chargers, questions if it’s top 5 play material.
Sharp/Square Verdict: Chargers plus the points is sharp.

[40:23] Chiefs at Raiders (KC -6.5)

Discussion on KC’s draft motivations and lack of faith in either side; both lean Chiefs due to defense.
“Feels like there’s other awful games I’d rather bet and have to watch.” — Simon (41:18)
Player Prop Note: Hollywood Brown incentives up to $750k in game (42:29)
Sharp/Square Verdict: Avoid.

[43:40] Jets at Bills (BUF -7)

Expected QB rest (Allen), but public/wiseguy money moves number toward Buffalo.
“Jets are on a historic run. First team in 80 years to lose five straight by 20+ points.” — Simon (44:50)
No confidence in Jets, even against Bills backups.
Sharp/Square Verdict: No bet; if forced, favor the Bills.

[44:50] Commanders at Eagles (PHI -7)

Chad: “Philly needs a game to regain offensive confidence.”
Simon: “I don’t trust it. These games are very tricky… if the Bears are up big, why would Eagles not rest starters?”
Recommendation: Back Commanders (+7) in pools due to possible Philly resting scenario.
Prop Note: Von Miller needs 1 sack for a $500,000 bonus (46:40)

[47:06] Lions at Bears (CHI -2.5 → -3)

Bears favored at home—line movement attributed to sharp action.
Chad bullish on Bears’ confidence after Niners game; Simon expects regression and likes Detroit at +3.
“If it was still a pick, I could be on the Bears. But now we’re hitting the 3, you have to take the Lions at that number.” — Simon (49:04)

[51:44] Rams at Cardinals (LAR -7) (Chad's Choice)

McVay says Rams “need to play better”—all starters expected to play.
Chad: “This is a normal handicap, not a ‘Week 18 weirdness’ handicap.” (52:12)
Cardinals have been getting blown out big late season.
Both expect Rams to cover handily; Simon taking a flyer on Stafford for MVP (“I just can’t wrap my head around May being such a big favorite… Stafford not dead yet.” 55:26)

[58:56] Patriots at Dolphins (NE -11.5)

Drake May's MVP bonanza leads to big number for Pats; both wary.
Simon lays points with NE but “no confidence in this Miami team after a win, going on the road in freezing cold.”
Sharp/Square Verdict: Reluctant lean Pats at -10.5/-11.

[60:46] Ravens at Steelers (BAL -3.5) (Simon Says)

Tomlin as home dog = historically golden spot.
“Since 2005, the underdog in this series is 30-12-3 ATS, 71%... Tomlin is 25-7-3 ATS as a dog vs. Harbaugh.”—Simon (62:43)
“We have all the trends… we know this is the exact spot.” (64:02)
Value in Steelers +3.5 as line moves on “DK” injury (likely referring to WR Deonte Johnson).
Simon Says Best Bet: Steelers +3.5

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Incentive Props:
“Do not tell me Rico Dowdle needs seven more yards to get an incentive. I'm gonna lose my mind. Don't do this.”
— Simon, on Chad’s enthusiasm for contract prop bets (09:03)
On Recurring Sharps' Angles:
“Baker Mayfield is 22-36 ATS at home… 2nd worst profitable QB in history at home.” — Simon (10:03)
“Since 2021, Saints are 13-0 ATS as a 3+ point dog on the road in the division.” — Simon (20:29)
“Since last year Cleveland is 0-6 ATS after a straight up win, failing to cover by 11 ppg.” — Simon (24:04)
“Tomlin is 25-7-3 as a dog against Harbaugh.” — Simon (62:43)
On Bears’ Trajectory:
“I came away from that game [vs. SF] so encouraged… We went toe-to-toe with one of the best. I came out thinking, we never have to worry about being out of a game.” — Chad (48:17)
On Emotional Investment:
“I’m obviously too biased with this game. People know I’m all in on Shuck. If I get three and a half, I’m hammering the Saints side.” — Simon (19:12)

Best Bets & Summary

Simon Says: Steelers +3.5 (64:02)
Chad’s Choice: Rams -7 (51:44)

Other Notable Leans:

Panthers at any number (+2.5 or better)
49ers as home dog
Saints +3 (ideally +3.5)
Bengals -7.5
Chargers +12/13 if the line keeps climbing
Lions +3
Patriots -10.5/-11 (grudgingly)

Overall Tone & Style

The episode is a rapid-fire, no-nonsense guide to the insanity of Week 18, full of banter, sarcastic asides (“Do not tell me Rico Dowdle needs seven more yards...”), and candid self-reflection on past mistakes. Both hosts blend handicapping rigor with a gambler’s realism, always mindful of contest strategy, market signals, late information, and the quirks of NFL incentives and coaching motivation. The episode ends with reminders of the volatility and oddball potential of Week 18, with a promise for their final five picks episode to come on Thursday.

Useful Timestamps Reference

Contest/Gimmicks Intro: [03:00]
Panthers-Bucs: [08:46]
Seahawks-49ers: [13:49]
Saints-Falcons: [17:35]
Browns-Bengals: [23:31]
Cowboys-Giants: [26:21]
Texans-Colts: [27:36]
Packers-Vikings: [35:00]
Chargers-Broncos: [37:58]
Chiefs-Raiders: [40:23]
Jets-Bills: [43:40]
Commanders-Eagles: [44:50]
Lions-Bears: [47:06]
Rams-Cardinals: [51:44]
Patriots-Dolphins: [58:56]
Ravens-Steelers: [60:46]

Listen for more detail and the final five picks later in the week!

Sharp or Square | NFL Week 18 Bets

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: December 30, 2025
Presented by: Hard Rock Bet & The Volume

Overview

Show Highlights & Key Segments

[03:00] Contest Recap & Bears Trade Hypothetical

Chad emerges from a COVID bout, recaps their 2-3 week, and shouts out contest leader "the big Y."
Chad’s GM Experiment: Using ChatGPT to propose a Bears trade for Maxx Crosby.
- “If I were GM of the Bears, how could I make a trade for Max Crosby work?” — Chad (04:48)
- Simon notes, “This is Khalil Mack all over again. Go get the guy from the Raiders.” (06:21)

[08:30] Contract Incentives

Chad plans to pepper contract incentive plays throughout—sometimes to Simon’s comic frustration.
Quote: “Do not tell me Rico Dowdle needs seven more yards to get an incentive. I'm gonna lose my mind. Don't do this.” — Simon (09:03)

Game-by-Game Betting Breakdown

[08:46] Panthers at Buccaneers (CAR +2.5)

Early Sharps and both hosts are on the Panthers, despite public action backing Bryce Young.
Panthers have covered after every loss this season as a dog (7-0 ATS after a loss).
“Baker Mayfield is 22-36 ATS at home… the second worst profitable QB in the history of football at home.” — Simon (10:03)
Both hosts bet CAR +3.5 early; still betting moneyline and player props (Rico Dowdle incentives).
Sharp/Square Verdict: Sharp side still Panthers, but market growing wary as number crashes.

[13:49] Seahawks at 49ers (SF +1.5)

Massive line flip, now Niners as a home dog. Chad leans SF, citing Shanahan’s strong track record as a home dog.
Simon: “If you just go through Sam Darnold’s career… it was his 7th and 10th worst games of his career against this Niners defense.” (15:00)
Brock Purdy’s home dominance highlighted (11-3 career in December or later).
Sharp/Square Verdict: Sharp now on Niners with line flip and public chasing Seattle.

[17:35] Saints at Falcons (ATL -3)

Falcons coming off prime time win, Saints have covered 5 in a row ATS with QB Shuck.
“Since 2021, the Saints are 13-0 ATS on the road as a 3+ point dog against divisional opponents.” — Simon (20:29)
Shuck (Saints rookie QB) went from 300:1 Rookie of the Year odds to currently favored.
Simon is waiting for +3.5 to go heavy on Saints; too emotionally attached to fade “his guy.”
Sharp/Square Verdict: Saints sharp if/when +3.5 hits.

[23:31] Browns at Bengals (CIN -7.5)

Both bet CIN -7 early, fading a Browns defense that struggles on the road.
“Since last year Cleveland is 0-6 ATS after a straight up win, failing to cover by 11 PPG.” — Simon (24:04)
Bengals offense rolling since Burrow returned.
Sharp/Square Verdict: Sharp on Cincy, even with a late line move.

[26:21] Cowboys at Giants (NYG +4.5)

Market drop from DAL -5.5 to -3.5 or -4 at some books.
Both hosts admit to having little feel; Simon notes professionals must have an angle on the Giants.
“This is the exact type of game Dallas wins by 30… but I can’t see Dak not going all out trying to pad his stats.” — Simon (27:03)
Sharp/Square Verdict: Pass, tread lightly.

[27:36] Texans at Colts (HOU -10)

Riley Leonard starts for Indy, but both hesitant to back Houston's inconsistent offense at huge favorites.
“Colts hit win total on Nov. 9th and haven’t won a game since.” — Chad (28:53)
Lean Colts (double-digit dog), but not a priority.
Sharp/Square Verdict: Avoid; number too high for shaky Houston.

[29:46] Titans at Jaguars (JAX -)

Both refuse to bet Tennessee after recent heartbreaks.
Question if there’s even an outside shot at the Jags’ seeding—ultimately dismissed as too obscure.
Sharp/Square Verdict: Skip.

[35:00] Packers at Vikings (MIN -6.5)

Huge move from MIN -5.5 to -6.5 as pros fade uncertainty under center for Green Bay.
Expectation is both teams rest starters; Minnesota defense will play hard.
“I would still take this along, it’s under seven on Minnesota, but we’re just simply backing Flores and this defense.” — Simon (36:19)
Prop Note: Josh Oliver 2+ TDs = $250k incentive (37:23)
Sharp/Square Verdict: Semi-sharp with MN, but lots of uncertainty.

[37:58] Chargers at Broncos (DEN -12.5)

Trey Lance starts for LAC, but Simon loves the Chargers plus big points.
“Bo Nix is 2-9 as a favorite this year… just feels like a ton of points with a mobile quarterback.” — Simon (38:23)
Chad agrees value is on Chargers, questions if it’s top 5 play material.
Sharp/Square Verdict: Chargers plus the points is sharp.

[40:23] Chiefs at Raiders (KC -6.5)

Discussion on KC’s draft motivations and lack of faith in either side; both lean Chiefs due to defense.
“Feels like there’s other awful games I’d rather bet and have to watch.” — Simon (41:18)
Player Prop Note: Hollywood Brown incentives up to $750k in game (42:29)
Sharp/Square Verdict: Avoid.

[43:40] Jets at Bills (BUF -7)

Expected QB rest (Allen), but public/wiseguy money moves number toward Buffalo.
“Jets are on a historic run. First team in 80 years to lose five straight by 20+ points.” — Simon (44:50)
No confidence in Jets, even against Bills backups.
Sharp/Square Verdict: No bet; if forced, favor the Bills.

[44:50] Commanders at Eagles (PHI -7)

Chad: “Philly needs a game to regain offensive confidence.”
Simon: “I don’t trust it. These games are very tricky… if the Bears are up big, why would Eagles not rest starters?”
Recommendation: Back Commanders (+7) in pools due to possible Philly resting scenario.
Prop Note: Von Miller needs 1 sack for a $500,000 bonus (46:40)

[47:06] Lions at Bears (CHI -2.5 → -3)

Bears favored at home—line movement attributed to sharp action.
Chad bullish on Bears’ confidence after Niners game; Simon expects regression and likes Detroit at +3.
“If it was still a pick, I could be on the Bears. But now we’re hitting the 3, you have to take the Lions at that number.” — Simon (49:04)

[51:44] Rams at Cardinals (LAR -7) (Chad's Choice)

McVay says Rams “need to play better”—all starters expected to play.
Chad: “This is a normal handicap, not a ‘Week 18 weirdness’ handicap.” (52:12)
Cardinals have been getting blown out big late season.
Both expect Rams to cover handily; Simon taking a flyer on Stafford for MVP (“I just can’t wrap my head around May being such a big favorite… Stafford not dead yet.” 55:26)

[58:56] Patriots at Dolphins (NE -11.5)

Drake May's MVP bonanza leads to big number for Pats; both wary.
Simon lays points with NE but “no confidence in this Miami team after a win, going on the road in freezing cold.”
Sharp/Square Verdict: Reluctant lean Pats at -10.5/-11.

[60:46] Ravens at Steelers (BAL -3.5) (Simon Says)

Tomlin as home dog = historically golden spot.
“Since 2005, the underdog in this series is 30-12-3 ATS, 71%... Tomlin is 25-7-3 ATS as a dog vs. Harbaugh.”—Simon (62:43)
“We have all the trends… we know this is the exact spot.” (64:02)
Value in Steelers +3.5 as line moves on “DK” injury (likely referring to WR Deonte Johnson).
Simon Says Best Bet: Steelers +3.5

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Incentive Props:
“Do not tell me Rico Dowdle needs seven more yards to get an incentive. I'm gonna lose my mind. Don't do this.”
— Simon, on Chad’s enthusiasm for contract prop bets (09:03)
On Recurring Sharps' Angles:
“Baker Mayfield is 22-36 ATS at home… 2nd worst profitable QB in history at home.” — Simon (10:03)
“Since 2021, Saints are 13-0 ATS as a 3+ point dog on the road in the division.” — Simon (20:29)
“Since last year Cleveland is 0-6 ATS after a straight up win, failing to cover by 11 ppg.” — Simon (24:04)
“Tomlin is 25-7-3 as a dog against Harbaugh.” — Simon (62:43)
On Bears’ Trajectory:
“I came away from that game [vs. SF] so encouraged… We went toe-to-toe with one of the best. I came out thinking, we never have to worry about being out of a game.” — Chad (48:17)
On Emotional Investment:
“I’m obviously too biased with this game. People know I’m all in on Shuck. If I get three and a half, I’m hammering the Saints side.” — Simon (19:12)

Best Bets & Summary

Simon Says: Steelers +3.5 (64:02)
Chad’s Choice: Rams -7 (51:44)

Other Notable Leans:

Panthers at any number (+2.5 or better)
49ers as home dog
Saints +3 (ideally +3.5)
Bengals -7.5
Chargers +12/13 if the line keeps climbing
Lions +3
Patriots -10.5/-11 (grudgingly)

Overall Tone & Style

Useful Timestamps Reference

Contest/Gimmicks Intro: [03:00]
Panthers-Bucs: [08:46]
Seahawks-49ers: [13:49]
Saints-Falcons: [17:35]
Browns-Bengals: [23:31]
Cowboys-Giants: [26:21]
Texans-Colts: [27:36]
Packers-Vikings: [35:00]
Chargers-Broncos: [37:58]
Chiefs-Raiders: [40:23]
Jets-Bills: [43:40]
Commanders-Eagles: [44:50]
Lions-Bears: [47:06]
Rams-Cardinals: [51:44]
Patriots-Dolphins: [58:56]
Ravens-Steelers: [60:46]

Listen for more detail and the final five picks later in the week!

NFL Week 18 Bets: Seahawks-Niners, Panthers-Bucs, Lions-Bears, Ravens-Steelers, Packers-Vikings and more

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Summary

Sharp or Square | NFL Week 18 Bets

Overview

Show Highlights & Key Segments

[03:00] Contest Recap & Bears Trade Hypothetical

[08:30] Contract Incentives

Game-by-Game Betting Breakdown

[08:46] Panthers at Buccaneers (CAR +2.5)

[13:49] Seahawks at 49ers (SF +1.5)

[17:35] Saints at Falcons (ATL -3)

[23:31] Browns at Bengals (CIN -7.5)

[26:21] Cowboys at Giants (NYG +4.5)

[27:36] Texans at Colts (HOU -10)

[29:46] Titans at Jaguars (JAX -)

[35:00] Packers at Vikings (MIN -6.5)

[37:58] Chargers at Broncos (DEN -12.5)

[40:23] Chiefs at Raiders (KC -6.5)

[43:40] Jets at Bills (BUF -7)

[44:50] Commanders at Eagles (PHI -7)

[47:06] Lions at Bears (CHI -2.5 → -3)

[51:44] Rams at Cardinals (LAR -7) (Chad's Choice)

[58:56] Patriots at Dolphins (NE -11.5)

[60:46] Ravens at Steelers (BAL -3.5) (Simon Says)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Best Bets & Summary

Overall Tone & Style

Useful Timestamps Reference

Summary

Sharp or Square | NFL Week 18 Bets

Overview

Show Highlights & Key Segments

[03:00] Contest Recap & Bears Trade Hypothetical

[08:30] Contract Incentives

Game-by-Game Betting Breakdown

[08:46] Panthers at Buccaneers (CAR +2.5)

[13:49] Seahawks at 49ers (SF +1.5)

[17:35] Saints at Falcons (ATL -3)

[23:31] Browns at Bengals (CIN -7.5)

[26:21] Cowboys at Giants (NYG +4.5)

[27:36] Texans at Colts (HOU -10)

[29:46] Titans at Jaguars (JAX -)

[35:00] Packers at Vikings (MIN -6.5)

[37:58] Chargers at Broncos (DEN -12.5)

[40:23] Chiefs at Raiders (KC -6.5)

[43:40] Jets at Bills (BUF -7)

[44:50] Commanders at Eagles (PHI -7)

[47:06] Lions at Bears (CHI -2.5 → -3)

[51:44] Rams at Cardinals (LAR -7) (Chad's Choice)

[58:56] Patriots at Dolphins (NE -11.5)

[60:46] Ravens at Steelers (BAL -3.5) (Simon Says)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Best Bets & Summary

Overall Tone & Style

Useful Timestamps Reference