Sharp or Square – NFL Week 18 Reactions (January 5, 2026)
Hosts: Chad Millman (Betting Expert), Simon Hunter (Professional Sports Gambler)
Podcast: Sharp or Square, iHeartPodcasts & The Volume
Episode Theme:
Deep-dive reactions to the numbers, outcomes, and betting angles of NFL Week 18, focusing on pivotal games (Jets-Bills, Saints-Falcons, Lions-Bears, Cardinals-Rams, Browns-Bengals, and more). The hosts blend analysis, betting insights, and emotional reactions from a sharp and square perspective.
Overview
Chad Millman and Simon Hunter break down a tumultuous NFL Week 18: a week marked by sloppy starts, wild finishes, shocking upsets, and strong betting opinions. The pair react to key games and betting results, evaluate rookie performances, coaching blunders, and discuss market movement and playoff outlooks. They also reflect on shifting MVP odds, the future of sports betting in America, and deliver their signature "heroes and shame" of the week.
Key Discussion Points & Game Reactions
Early Window Chaos & Betting Update
[01:04] Chad Millman:
- Early games (Giants-Cowboys, Bengals-Browns, Saints-Falcons): Turnover festivals, "disgustingly bad" play from non-playoff teams.
- Afternoon featured much closer and more exciting games.
Betting Recap:
- Final five picks: Saints +3.5 (win), Bengals -7.5 (loss), Lions +3.5 (win), Rams -7.5 (win), Steelers +3.5 (pending)
- 3-1 on the day, hopeful for a strong finish.
Saints (+3.5) vs. Falcons
[03:28] Chad Millman / [04:08] Simon Hunter:
- Saints dominated much of the game yet lost due to errors: turnovers, a blocked punt leading to Falcons points.
- Tyler Shuck (Saints rookie QB) shined, especially in clutch moments, but fell short of clinching offensive rookie honors.
- Chris Olave’s absence (injury) was pivotal; with him, Saints "win 8 out of 10 times."
- "Honest at the day, like I said, if Olave played, I felt like they really could have beat that Falcons team." (Simon, 04:39)
[06:11] Chad Millman:
- Lauds Shuck’s final touchdown drive: “He scrambled right...threw a perfect pass layered over a defensive back...couldn't have put the ball in a better position if he had placed it in Ronnie Bell's elbow..."
- On Saints' season and betting the Panthers: "We get to think about the Panthers and betting the Panthers for one more week."
Notable Quote
“He couldn’t have put the ball in a better position if he had placed it into Ronnie Bell’s elbow.”
– Chad Millman [06:11]
Browns at Bengals (-7.5)
[07:42] Chad Millman:
- Bengals' performance infuriated Chad. Series of turnovers: missed extra points, pick-six, fumble returned for a TD.
- "Are you seriously kidding me…put the ball on the carpet and just let that defense...score at will."
- Simon reminds of a survivor contest player losing $3M on the Bengals, putting personal betting pain in perspective.
[11:37] Chad Millman:
- Rant against Bengals' coaching: "I don't want to be the dude who's losing it because the fucking Bengals are terrible..."
- Simon jokes Chad is “slowly turning into Dennis from Always Sunny.”
[12:32] Simon Hunter:
- Praises Miles Garrett’s new sack record: “He’s the only player [Lane Johnson] has ever gone against where every time, he knows he's gonna lose 1-on-1, because he's never had that his entire life.”
Notable Quote
“Their game plan wasn’t lets win the game... their game plan was let’s try to keep Myles Garrett from getting the sack record.”
– Chad Millman [34:05]
Lions (+3.5) at Bears
[13:10] Chad Millman:
- Emotional Chicago fan perspective: Bears offered "no confidence whatsoever"; defense praised too much despite giving up yards and relying on miracle turnovers.
- Simon predicted this losing scenario post-San Francisco loss: “History constantly repeats itself...we are stuck in the matrix, my friend.” ([14:52])
[15:33] Simon Hunter:
- On Detroit: “He is a shadow of his former self. Now [Dan Campbell]'s kicking field goals.”
- Bears’ resilience: “You find a way to make it a three-point game...a really special team, really special season. Congrats, Chad, on the two seed. I’m bitter as an Eagles fan, but it’s a big deal..."
Cardinals at Rams (-7.5)
[18:32] Chad Millman:
- Rams dominated early, but nearly collapsed as Jacoby Brissett almost led an Arizona comeback.
- Rams aided by questionable calls; Stafford stat-padded and is now MVP favorite (was +300 Tuesday, now -125).
[21:51] Chad Millman:
- McVay pushing for Stafford's MVP: “After that fourth touchdown pass...McVay talking in his ear. Not just like, hey, congratulations...that was your MVP, right? Go get it.”
[22:19] Simon Hunter:
- Debates Stafford vs. Drake May for MVP: "If I did have a vote, I’ve talked about, I would give it to Stafford just because of the career. But Drake May...if he does win it, he’s worthy, man."
Around the League – Cowboys, Eagles, Giants
[27:01] Chad Millman:
- Glad to have dodged Dallas in picks, describes the Cowboys as "a shit show" in Week 18.
[29:06] Chad & Simon:
- Giants’ draft pick situation affected by final week win. Speculation about Arch Manning’s NFL future and Giants’ interest.
[29:16] Simon Hunter:
- Eagles lose, miss out on the 2 seed: “I don’t want to go...to Chicago. Chicago already beat our asses earlier this year...Sirianni just gave that game away.”
Steelers at Ravens – Betting Market Movement
[30:15] Chad & Simon:
- Line moved sharply from 3.5 to 4.5 (Ravens favorite). Chad: “I’m only emboldened to take the Steelers now...this is an over-correction in the market.”
- Simon: "It's not fun...like that Saints bet, not fun like betting these ugly dogs. It’s never fun, but it is when they win."
Notable Quotes & Moments
Zach Taylor Coaching Rant
Chad Millman [31:42]:
“If I get one more shot of Zach Taylor standing on the sideline and pursing his lips as if he is stoic and unemotional in the face of complete and total incompetency...I would be losing my shit knowing that this guy is my coach and that this is my team...It was cowardly the way he coached this game. I thought it was pathetic. I thought it was an embarrassment.”
Betting Law Rant – 10% Tax on Losses
Simon Hunter [34:23]:
“Shame the US Government...This is the most un-American tax in our entire existence. This is a country that went to war over tea tax. And now we are paying a 10 tax on our losses with sports betting because we choose to legally sports bet, and now they're going to tax us 10 on our losses.”
Chad further explains the legality and industry response, criticizing the American Gaming Association for their “ineffectiveness.” ([37:42])
Heroes & Shame of the Week
Shame of the Week
- Chad: Zach Taylor/bad Bengals coaching
- Simon: The U.S. government and new sports betting tax laws
Hero of the Week
- Chad: Tyler Shuck – “He gave us a glorious ride the past few weeks. Even if I wasn’t along for it, he’s been great...in the last minutes, he found a way to get us the win by playing the number.” ([38:39])
- Simon: Atlantic City – Paying tribute to the magical run AC had since sports betting legalization: “It really was...The books were always packed, concerts came back...It was the best. It was the Wild West when it got approved.” ([39:15])
Playoff Line Movement & Early Bets
Bills (-1.5) at Jaguars (+1.5)
- Chad and Simon favor Jags as home dogs, but acknowledge Josh Allen reputation and market movement.
Bears now favored (-1/-1.5) over initial underdog line
Eagles at 49ers:
- Line steamed from Eagles +2.5 to +3; pros backing Philly.
- Panthers (+10.5) at Rams: Chad less sure about Panthers as big dogs, despite past trends.
Patriots (+3.5) vs. Chargers
- Simon: Easiest bet is the Chargers. “Grab it now…Could easily see this being three by Tuesday.”
Episode Summary Table
| Segment | Timestamps | Main Points | |-----------------------------------|-----------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Game Recap & Early Windows | 01:01 - 02:35 | Sloppy starts, turnover craziness, update on betting slip | | Saints-Falcons | 03:28 - 07:42 | Saints’ missed opportunities, rookie QB Tyler Shuck’s effort, market reaction to rookie awards | | Browns-Bengals | 07:42 - 12:32 | Betting heartbreak, Bengals’ meltdown, Zach Taylor criticism, Miles Garrett sack record | | Lions-Bears | 13:10 - 18:32 | Bears’ playoff worries, Lions’ conservatism, Chicago’s resilience | | Cardinals-Rams | 18:32 - 23:30 | Rams’ shaky second half, MVP odds for Stafford, McVay’s intentions | | Cowboys, Eagles, Giants | 27:01 - 30:15 | Dallas struggles, Giants’ draft chaos, Eagles’ missed opportunity | | Steelers-Ravens line | 30:15 - 31:35 | Aggressive line movement, betting reaction | | Shame/Hero of the Week | 31:41 - 40:58 | Rants on Bengals coaching & US betting law; tributes to Tyler Shuck & Atlantic City | | Early Playoff Leans | 42:01 - 45:35 | Rapid playoff betting breakdown: Jags, Bears, Eagles, Panthers, Patriots matches |
Conclusion & Tone
The episode is a classic Sharp or Square: high-intensity, emotional rants balanced with actionable betting advice and insider commentary. Chad and Simon maintain their witty, straightforward, sometimes irreverent—and always passionate—tone throughout, welcoming both sharp bettors and squares seeking to get better.
Final Wrap – Playoff Picks:
“We had the Bengals minus seven and a half. That was a loss. We had the Saints plus three and a half. That’s a win. We had the Rams minus seven and a half. That is a win. We had the Lions plus three and a half. That is a win. We’re on the Steelers tonight plus three and a half to hopefully go four and one.”
– Chad Millman [46:12]
Sign-off:
"Love you. Wear your seatbelts. It's playoff time." – Simon Hunter [46:39]
For Betting Fans:
The episode is packed with insight on betting theory, line movement, and emotional management—plus a heads up on new tax realities for sports bettors in the US. If you missed the episode, this summary covers all the big sweats, sighs, and shouts from NFL Week 18 and the sharpest playoff betting angles heading into Wild Card weekend.