Sharp or Square: NFL Week 3 Bets

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: September 16, 2025
Episode: NFL Week 3 bets: Rams-Eagles, Lions-Ravens, Chiefs-Giants, Cowboys-Bears, and more

Episode Overview

This week, Chad Millman and Simon Hunter go deep into the NFL Week 3 slate, examining key matchups, market moves, and betting angles. The central theme is "Perception vs. Reality," as the hosts explore whether early-season narratives and historic betting wisdom still hold water in the current NFL climate, especially given the unprecedented run of favorites covering and winning outright. They break down sharp versus square plays across the board, highlight games with the biggest professional/public splits, and share where the edge truly lies.

Key Themes & Takeaways

• Favorites Continue to Dominate: The hosts open with a discussion about historic favorite trends—favorites of 4+ points are 12-0 straight up this season and 64-7 since Week 13 of last year.
• Evolving Betting Strategies: With underdogs not coming through as in years past, Millman and Hunter stress the need to adapt rather than stubbornly play outdated angles.
• Battle of Perception vs. Reality: The episode focuses on separating the truth from popular betting narratives after two weeks of action.

Game-by-Game Breakdown

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

Buffalo -12.5

• Hosts' Position: PASS or use Bills as teaser/survivor legs.
• Key Insight: Both hosts agree it’s not a bet-worthy number for Dolphins, with Hunter declaring:

  “In the olden days, just four or five years ago, I would have loved the Dolphins in this spot... but these big dogs, they just ain't hitting like they used to.” (06:13)

• Memorable Note: No professional money moving the number off 12.5 signals market apathy.

Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns

Cleveland +8.5

• Pro Money: Browns getting early professional love despite public being on Packers.
• Chad's Stat Watch: Browns’ defense looks elite, but offensive limitations (especially Flacco) make them hard to trust:

  “I can’t bet on a team that has a great defense as a big dog at home if I’m afraid even if the defense only gives up 20, they won’t even get 10.” (10:48)

• View: Reluctant lean Browns, but not a strong contest pick yet.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville -1 / -1.5

• Sharp Side: Pros all over Houston; public expected on Jags.
• Simon:

  “Every pro I know is going to be on Houston... it’s an incredible, incredible spot.” (16:21)

• Concerns: Houston’s offense struggling, but the number/value and historical trends make Houston appealing.

Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings

(Carson Wentz vs. Jake Browning, line dropping)

• No Contest Play: Too much injury/news uncertainty, backup QBs galore.
• Chad: Prefers Bengals if he had to lean but won’t force the issue.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

Atlanta -5.5

• Opinion: Lost value on Falcons after line move; only Panthers at +7 or more are interesting.
• Simon:

  “We can’t give this out on the show.” (26:32)

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots

New England -1.5

• Sharp Lean: Wait for +2/+2.5 to back Steelers; multiple trends and sharp money lining up.
• Chad:

  “All my systems are everything is telling me take the Patriots... but I have not bet this yet.” (34:56)

• Key Trend: Winless ATS teams in Weeks 1-2 cover 60% in Week 3 since 2010.

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia -3.5

• Hosts' Analysis: Line movement toward Rams, but both Chad and Simon side with Eagles if value emerges (at -3).
• Simon (Eagles Fan):

  “This is peak, right? Two Super Bowls in seven years. Everyone just hates them. People say this is the most boring offense in all football. Who cares?” (41:36)

• Chad: Rams D potentially overrated due to facing poor O-lines; Eagles can win any style.

Las Vegas Raiders at Washington Commanders

Washington -3.5

• Pass Until Injury News: Jayden Daniels’ knee status looms large.
• Simon leans to Raiders if Daniels is out, but not forcing it.

New York Jets at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay -7

• Sharp Lean: Jets +7.
• Simon:

  "I actually kind of love the jets on the spot... I don't know how we don't have this one in the contest." (49:11)

• QB Uncertainty: May be better for Jets if Fields is out, Taylor plays.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

Colts -3.5

• Heavily Public Side: Colts are the obvious, “chalk” bet; both hosts are wary.
• Simon:

  "This is going to be the biggest need of the books this weekend... I just can't. I don't know who's betting Tennessee at this number." (55:12)

• Chad: Loves Colts at -3, but recognizes it's a trap spot for the public.

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks

Seattle -7.5

• Sharp Side: Saints +7.5.
• Simon:

  “It’s a tempting number... I need to nut up and do it.” (59:52)

• Chad: Believes public won’t make Seahawks a massive favorite, so it’s a pro play.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers -2.5

• Simon says: Denver +2.5
• Simon’s Case:

  “Love, love, love, love, love Denver in this spot... exactly where I step in. This is my favorite bets...” (61:43)

• Chad: Hesitant due to Broncos’ heavy blitz reliance but willing to roll with Simon.

Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears

Bears -1.5

• Simon says: Bears -1.5
• Public Perception Play: Bears fit winless-ATS desperation trend; hosts see value in buying low.
• Simon:

  "You have to bet this one. If you're a fan of this show, you gotta do it... all bad, it's all negative right now for this Bears team." (70:07)

• Chad: Bears management got lucky, not smart; team mismanagement is rampant.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

49ers -1.5

• Pass: No strong edge; possibly slight value to Cardinals, but secondary injuries muddy water.

Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants

Chiefs -5.5 (Sunday Night Football)

• Chad loves, love: Chiefs -5.5/-6
• Chad:

  "Chad loves, love. Chad loves the Chiefs at five and a half... Chad loves love. Chad loves the Chiefs." (79:14, 79:41)

• Simon: Only bet at 6 or lower; wiseguys will likely hit Giants once it’s 6.5.

Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore -5.5 → -4.5

• Sharp Money: Line dropping on pro Lion support despite public Ravens action.
• Simon:

  “If you’re taking the 4.5, you’re gonna take the 5 and you’re gonna take the 5.5, a lot of which is still available.” (84:23)

• Chad: Recaps how Ravens’ recent win was due to Browns’ implosions/gifted opportunities.

Notable Quotes & Moments

On Market Shifts and Trends

• Chad: (re: favorites’ dominance)

  “Favorites who closed at more than four are 12 and 0 straight up this season, 64 and 7 since week 13 of last year. Faves of six plus points are 47 and 4 in that span.” (03:13)

• Simon:

  "These big dogs, they just ain't hitting like they used to. So I am so happy. We don't need to force this one..." (06:13)

On Perception vs. Reality

• Chad:

  "This is a 100% perception versus reality game because I do think the Eagles can kind of do whatever they want at this point." (43:23)

On Betting Chalk & Market Discipline

• Simon:

  "We can't give this out on the show...we don't need to make these horrible suffering decisions yet." (27:32)

On The Bears

• Simon:

  "If you're a fan of this show, you gotta do it... all bad, it's all negative right now for this Bears team." (70:07)

• Chad:

  "The Bears are so mismanaged and they're so incompetent...they gave that extension because they finally had someone within management getting good publicity who looked like he was doing the right things. And it turns out it could be all the wrong things." (73:14)

On Chiefs-Giants SNF

• Chad:

  "Chad loves, love. Chad loves the Chiefs at five and a half... Chad loves love. Chad loves the Chiefs." (79:14, 79:41)

Key Timestamps

• Buffalo-Miami breakdown: 05:05 – 08:44
• Green Bay-Cleveland: 09:16 – 14:43
• Houston-Jacksonville: 15:01 – 21:32
• Atlanta-Carolina: 25:34 – 27:41
• Steelers-Patriots: 33:40 – 39:13
• Rams-Eagles: 39:13 – 46:27
• Jets-Bucs: 48:17 – 51:40
• Colts-Titans: 52:09 – 56:55
• Seahawks-Saints: 57:27 – 60:22
• Broncos-Chargers: 61:43 – 64:46
• Bears-Cowboys: 68:42 – 75:43
• Chiefs-Giants SNF: 78:04 – 81:46
• Lions-Ravens MNF: 81:46 – 86:49

Host Locks/Specials

• Simon Says:

  • Denver +2.5
  • Bears -1.5

• Chad Loves Love:

  • Chiefs -5.5/-6

Watch List: Key Sides to Monitor (Per Hosts)

• Cleveland +8.5 (early week line)
• Steelers at +2/+2.5
• Eagles at -3 or lower
• Jets +7
• Colts if not too public
• Saints +7.5
• Lions +5.5
• Contest picks to be finalized on Thursday episode.

Overall Tone

The discussion is lively and candid, blending deep betting analysis, wiseguy wisdom, and humorous, sometimes self-deprecating banter about their own biases and frustrations as fans and bettors. Both hosts emphasize discipline: not overreacting to surface trends, not forcing bets on formerly “automatic” dog angles, and waiting for value.

Final Takeaways

Chad and Simon are both evolving with the current realities of NFL betting. They’re willing to pass on old-school dog spots, highlight when the market’s already moved past the sharp number, and advocate for discipline—echoed in their approach to consensus contest picks. They favor Denver, Chicago, and Kansas City, are circumspect on Colts/Titans, and urge listeners to keep their eyes open for late-week line movement and news, particularly at key injury-affected spots.

For the sharpest edges and final decisions, tune in Thursday when contest picks are locked.