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Sharp or Square
NFL Week 3 bets: Rams-Eagles, Lions-Ravens, Chiefs-Giants, Cowboys-Bears and more
01:19:08
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- [00:01]
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- [01:53]
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- [02:45]
Chad Millman
Welcome to Sharp or Square presented by Hard Rock Bat. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the betting show. The number one betting show. It makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. And I'm joined as always by my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [03:12]
Simon Hunter
Chad. How we doing, brother?
- [03:14]
Chad Millman
Dude. So at the end of our show on Sunday night, we were talking about favorites dominating and it feels a little bit like they are picking up where they ended last season. They were winning at such a rate last year that the biggest sportsbook operators in the world in their earnings calls in the second, in the third and fourth quarter of the year had to reduce their revenue projections because of what they described as customer friendly outcomes. It means the favorites are winning too much. Right? And that means the public is winning too much because all the big favorites are covering and winning outright. So our pal Evan Abrams, greatest researcher in the world, had a tweet on, I don't know, Sunday night, Monday morning that favorites who closed at more than four are 12 and oh, straight up this season, 64 and seven since week 13 of last year. Faves of six plus points are 47 and four in that span. A reminder over this past weekend, the four point favorites were San Francisco one, Baltimore one. Detroit won, Buffalo one, Rams one. By the way, those teams all covered as well. The two that didn't cover but still won were the Cowboys and Cardinals. The Cardinals who gave it away in the final five minutes. So it's why we added Simon. That money line round robin for favorites. The dogs can't win. They can barely cover. So if you don't change, you don't evolve. Right? And we evolve, Simon. Do you want to know how we're going to prove it this week?
- [05:03]
Simon Hunter
I'm looking forward to you showing me Chad.
- [05:06]
Chad Millman
It's our Tuesday show. We're going to review the entire slate. We will have a battle, Simon. A battle of perception versus reality. Now that we have two weeks of games, let's get after it. Don't forget you can get all the shows at Sherper Square on YouTube. Go subscribe. Like this video. While you're at it, you can subscribe to sharpersquare and Apple pods, Spotify, et cetera. I look Thursday night, Miami at Buffalo. Buffalo's a 12 and a half point favorite. I think the theme for this, this episode really is perception and reality. Old school velocity, old school philosophy versus reality. Old school reality is you bet the dogs have more than 12 points in a division game. The reality, thanks to killer sports dogs in Those spots are 44% against the spreads in 2015. We avoided it last weekend, ignoring the Browns in the Ravens game. The question is not do we bet the Dolphins? The question is, are the Dolphins so bad we would bet against them in this spot? That to me. That to me, all of a sudden becomes the question.
- [06:13]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And again, it's a game that I'm all going to be on one side. People know my stance on swamity. I'm just going to keep fading them every week until a change happens, right. Until they fire the head coach and gm, which I think is just. It's needed. There's just some. Some of these organizations. I mean, we'll go through it today, but, like, you're two weeks in, what do you think is really going to change? Right. You kind of know with some of these teams, just the way it started and the way the vibes are. So Miami's just a team that at 14, 14 and a half. Because it's a standalone game on a short week and Miami's really desperate. I probably could be tucked into it, but at this number, I'll just be like the Joe Public. I'll throw it in my teaser with someone else from Sunday and just. I mean, this is going to be just a huge need for the book. So like we just said, Chalk has been winning in the olden days. Just four or five years ago, I would have loved the Dolphins in the spot. They're going to be a huge need for the book. And like Chad's saying, no, no one's going to be betting Miami here. Like, this is such a Miami number. Miami spot. But we've seen these Thursday games. They tilt to the favorites at home, and that's held true. And Chad just sits here. Those stats, these big dogs, they just ain't hitting like they used to. So I am so happy. We don't need to force this one and probably not. Don't even need to talk about it on Thursday show. I'm simply looking at this as a teaser spot with the Bills. Or if you really want to, you could survive it. But I hate doing survivors on Thursday. But I get it. But I just. This. This number is insane. I can't believe. Honestly, I can't believe that it's. It's up to where it's at. And I could see it keep getting higher just because they need. They're going to need Dolphins money. I just don't see it coming until the professionals really get that 13. Thirteen and a half. So send it 12 and a half. Like Chad said.
- [08:04]
Chad Millman
No.
- [08:04]
Simon Hunter
No need to force it.
- [08:06]
Chad Millman
I'm a little surprised it hasn't gotten a 14 already. There, there's. There's no evidence of things unseen to make you want to bet on the Dolphins. It just goes to show you to me that everyone's kind of sitting this one out because it hasn't moved off the 12 and a half since Sunday. So if the wise guys were coming in, they're the ones who are going to bet in the first 40 hours, 48 hours and sort of pluck those early big lines. It's just solid 12 and a half. So it hasn't gone down to 12, hasn't gone down to 11 and a half, but it hasn't gone up. Meaning everyone's just sort of avoiding it. To me, yeah. At this point.
- [08:45]
Simon Hunter
And you, if you have to take that number in a big contest, I would say in this show, I feel like we, you know, Chad just said you don't have to take the Dolphins number, but if you're looking for an angle on the Dolphins side, the best one I could think of is banged up secondary defense that obviously the jets couldn't expose in their matchup. But Miami has the weapons that can. But like two has just been so bad. He's had these picks, he's throwing all of it. It's just so bad. I, I am happy that we can avoid this one, brother.
- [09:17]
Chad Millman
Green Bay packers, who might be the best team in the NFL right now. After two games, they are visiting the Cleveland Browns. The line opened at eight and a half. Actually got bet up a little bit to nine. Now it's been bought back down to eight and a half. I'll tell you this, man, I don't know what to do with the Browns. And I want to get your take on this because we love the Browns in Week 1. But the reason we love the Browns in Week 1 is because we believe their defense is elite. And statistically they are proving that to be the case. But they were going against a revamped offensive line and a not very good defense. And then in this past week I rewatched this game. Simon. I was on the Rower and I rewatched the condensed version in 38 minutes of Ravens.
- [10:09]
Simon Hunter
Browns.
- [10:09]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Oh God. Yeah, I did. Because here's the thing, like statistically this game made no sense. The Browns had 322 yards. The Ravens had 242. The Browns had 72 plays. The Ravens had 53 rushing yards. The Browns had 115. The Ravens had 45. The Browns had 5.2 yards per carry. The Ravens had 2.1. Third downs, the Browns were 7 of 18. Ravens were 3 and 12. I am going to get into with the Ravens, how this was so deceiving because Joe Flacco was terrible. Like objectively terrible. Any pass he threw outside that was more than 5 yards was usually high and had to be an acrobatic catch by his receivers. They scored one touchdown before garbage time. That was a miracle. Fourth down that was deflected off Marlon Humphrey. That shouldn't have been an interception. His whole game was check downs and screens. Like they have no offense. So I can't bet on a team that has a great defense as a big dog at home. If I'm afraid even if the defense only gives up 20 points, they won't even get 10.
- [11:20]
Simon Hunter
It's fair. But this is easily the best defense Green Bay has faced this year. And it, it's the 0 and 2 team. Like this is the type of teams you like because it is such a desperate spot and they're going against a team that this, this will be Joe's versus pros. The public is going to be all over the screen. Bay team. I was literally at the Hard Rock this morning. This is seven and a half in Jersey. So really money has hit this brown side. At least here in Jersey. You know, I'm with you. I just, I view this, this Browns team is just a dog that's always going to be in the fight. And like you said, you know, they're, they're asking their 40 year old quarterback Joe Flacco to throw the ball like 50 times. So I know you're saying he played really bad. It's like he is going to be deceased by week eight. I mean he's just dropping back this much.
- [12:16]
Chad Millman
Literally throwback to the OGs who used to listen to behind the bats with Scooch when we did it at espn. He's battered Flacco. Literally battered Flacco.
- [12:30]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, show some respect. Look how bad, how long ago you were badmouth on the man. He's still throwing touchdowns in the NFL.
- [12:35]
Chad Millman
No joke, right?
- [12:37]
Simon Hunter
But yeah, it's a game where I'll end up on the Browns and I'm like you, it's, I'm like dipping my toes in where it's like I don't really want to be on this spot. And Green Bay is another side I'm sure we're going to have in our moneyline round robin where it's like in what scenario does Green Bay lose? The only thing I can think of, the only angle I can look at again for this is Green Bay has a lot of injuries and you know, Washington was in A bad spot in a short week and we'll see coming out of this extended rest. If Green Bay can get a little healthier, I'm back on that offensive line. But if you're down guys in your offensive line, you're going against this Browns defensive line, you're going to have a bad time like let's be honest. So I, this is just one I'm going to keep eye on. But Chad's right here on Tuesday. We want to grab the eight and a half. I'm grabbing it just in case the pro pro money does come on. But I'm shocked this number is down to seven and a half just because I thought it was going to be all public all over the Screen Bay team. But yeah, the early, early professional money now has come in on the spround.
- [13:38]
Chad Millman
Side, which is not surprising. I would expect the early pro money. We saw it, it was at nine. It got down to eight and a half. You're saying you're seeing Hard Rock is at seven and a half in New Jersey. I just, I worry about betting on a quarterback who cannot do anything more than a check down and whose coordinator and his coach don't seem to want to let him do anything more than a check down.
- [14:01]
Simon Hunter
Well, that was, that was against the Ravens and Kyle Hamilton. I, I get what, I know, I get where you're coming from but if there's a team that you're taking the check down, safe throws but I completely understand you're coming. They were checking down still when they're down 20, it was. I'm with you. Like that game was just Stefanski doesn't trust him. The offense just doesn't trust it. But there, it's, it's a different world going from that position to being the one they're going to be in next week. So yeah, I understand. Like I'm not going to make us force the Browns in this week.
- [14:31]
Chad Millman
I don't want to not do it. It's one of the games I 100% want to bet. Like I'm, I, I actually was hoping you would come in strong and say to me, come on Chad, get your head out of your ass.
- [14:43]
Simon Hunter
Nah, not there yet.
- [14:44]
Chad Millman
This is the game. Like of course we're going to bet this game. It's a team with a great defense at home is a big dog off of a blowout. Nine times out of ten we auto bet this. I wanted you to tell me that. I guess we're not there.
- [15:00]
Simon Hunter
Not yet.
- [15:01]
Chad Millman
Houston at Jacksonville. Jacksonville, this game was one and a half it's down to one. In some places, it's down to a half, you know, I don't know, man. Poor Houston. They got Baker. They got Baker good last night. And that offensive line cannot keep the pressure off of CJ Stroud. He is now going into a second straight season of just not looking very good once teams adjust to what they're doing after, you know, 15 scripted plays. So it's weird how ineffective they are. I don't know how to measure this. I don't know how to analyze this because he's supposed to be a great quarterback. And they cannot execute, they cannot move the ball, they cannot protect him. It's disappointing, but it's moving in his direction. Is it because everyone thinks the Jags are so what? Is it mismanaged? I've already lost the word that I'm looking for. Help me.
- [16:06]
Simon Hunter
I would say they're a team that they traded up to the second pick overall to a guy that isn't that good. That's how I'm going to sum up the Jags right now with their Travis Hunter move.
- [16:17]
Chad Millman
All in on all in. Their GM came out. He was like, we're going all in. This is how you make big moves.
- [16:22]
Simon Hunter
I know. He was so cocky even though he did nothing. Yeah, this is. Every pro I know is going to be on Houston. And we talked last week, they were lining up to get Houston in that spot and they got Baker like you said. And I love that Baker showing out. Right? Two, two weeks in a row, two comeback wins.
- [16:40]
Chad Millman
That's great.
- [16:40]
Simon Hunter
I mean, that is shit we were taking for people being like, how are you guys going to put him in your top 10? This is why. This is like he's got whatever that thing is that you can't measure. Baker's got it. It's crazy. Like those. Both games left for dead and just rises up in the clutchest moments, makes big time throws. I mean, yeah, just. I couldn't believe it. I thought he was going to be for sure knocked out of that game in the midway through the third quarter. And he's just so tough. Baker. So, yeah, back to Houston. This spot, it's going to be a trend spot for I think 80% of guys who bet for a living. Okay.02 Houston against the spread. Straight up on the road in a spot as a dog. I mean, there's still one and a half out there. Like Chad said, Hard Rock, they've moved to one. So I would get the one half I can or I know people hate bets. One and a Half. Fine, throw them in your teaser then. Get them up to seven and a half if you need to. But incredible, incredible spot for Houston facing a Jags team that. How's it not all burning down around them right now? That was. That had to be the worst flight home this past week of any team. That must have been a pin drop. Like you couldn't hear anything on the plane. No one was talking. Just awful, awful vibes. And I don't know about you, but not that I feel like I've been too hard on Trevor Lawrence, but even in week one, I just watched him, I was just like, he just isn't good. He's just not good. He's not consistent and he totally gave that game away. Like, your defense gets three picks on a backup quarterback. You have to win that game. And just. I just can't get over how bad it is for the Jaguars. So I feel lucky where Houston lost in a game. Like we just both agree they probably shouldn't have lost. I mean, they just got really unlucky. And I expect the public to be on the Jaguars here and maybe this number can go up a little bit. But as we see right now, hard rockets come down. So I like the one and a half on Houston, but it's another game where I think what you've said is true, that something's wrong with C.J. and this offense right now. And it's a little, A little scary stepping in on this team and believing them. But it's the numbers and the trends are going to point to this being a good spot. And I have it at a pick. So it's like I have Houston as great as a better team. They're the dog. I'll take it. But there's a couple games this week that just make your stomach turn taking it because it's just like you said, we've watched them now for two weeks and it's like, man, I see, I see, see how it's going sideways for Houston. But man, is this. Is this a make or break spot for this team and they have to be the more desperate one? The Jaguars?
- [19:29]
Chad Millman
Yeah, the. The Jags posted Liam Cones postgame speech.
- [19:36]
Simon Hunter
Which I thought was cool. Never saw that before.
- [19:38]
Chad Millman
I thought it was great. Like you post the losing coaches speech and he talks about how they have to get better and it's on all of them and they're going to look at the film and I thought that was, that was really interesting. It's funny, it's funny to me that you say we haven't Been hard on Trevor Lawrence. I feel like we've been dogging Trevor Lawrence for two years, saying he's inaccurate when he needs to be accurate. He has no touch inside the red zone. He's overrated. They shouldn't have paid him. He hasn't proven that he's worth the money they gave him and any respect. And this was the perfect game. He's becoming, to me, he's becoming an impediment to that team, and I think it's good. I think it's going to be really frustrating because it doesn't look like he kind of is the one who can take them to the next level because they should have a deep receiver room. Like, it should be an offensive juggernaut. So I don't know. He had three touchdowns in the first half, and then in the second half, he had multiple interceptions and was inaccurate.
- [20:47]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And they were 14 70. Could have put them up 2170 through a pick in the end zone. But I, I just want the masses, like, there's still people out there that talk and put them in their top 10 list than they do in the off season. There's still shows out there that believe them. I mean, not to say you believe them, but you did pick them to win this division. And I get it was because of the number, but it's like, yeah, there's still some. A little bit in the back of our minds where I told you after last year, he burned me so bad, I was just like, I'm gonna just be patient. Let me see it first, and then I'll invest money in Trevor Lawrence. And, man, it's. It just will not make sense. His talent, his body frame, his build, his arm talent, all of it. It's just crazy. Yeah, exactly. It's just crazy. Doesn't have the mindset for it.
- [21:32]
Chad Millman
All in the head.
- [21:34]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [21:34]
Chad Millman
At this point, it's all in the head. Right. Because we. Why does Baker Mayfield, who doesn't have any of the natural gifts that Trevor Lawrence allegedly. Let me finish. Let me finish. He's not as tall. Like, his throwing motion isn't as good, but the guy can ball, and his players love him, and he's top 10. Trevor Lawrence is not. No. All right. The backup quarterback. Both Cincinnati and Minnesota, the line has come down tremendously now that we know it's Carson Wentz versus. Versus Jake Browning. Weird game. No feel. I, I, I kind of want to see what's going to happen with a lot of the people who have been injured from Minnesota because it's obviously been an issue whether it's Ryan Kelly who's now out with a concussion, left the game with a concussion. Christian Darasa, who the left tackle who didn't play was his status. Andrew Van Ginkel. They lost Aaron Jones to a hamstring. Harrison Smith, Jonathan Granard, like all these guys either didn't play last week or left the game last week. Now you got Carson Wentz. I lean Bengals here. Before I would, before I would bet on the Vikings. I don't want to play it, but I have more faith in Jake Browning than I do in Carson Wentz.
- [22:53]
Simon Hunter
Oh my God, the man threw three picks last week. I get it. I mean ticket. So that's why you're probably just like happy about it. But that's one of those monies you should donate after winning that bet on that Bengals team because it was a win.
- [23:06]
Chad Millman
Do I have to like I lose games like that. Is someone going to give me money because it felt so bad for me?
- [23:14]
Simon Hunter
Why would it feel bad? You just laugh. Those never feel bad. You just laugh how stupid it was. But I, I live for this. You're getting Carson Wentz and I spot that, you know, isn't this, isn't this for his life? Like so I love it. Like he's either going to throw what Brownie did, he's going to throw three picks and just be a train wreck or I think he could be really solid in this offense. When you look at the tape of this Vikings team, even when they have guy like you said, they have injuries to their defense, that is an issue. But I think if people get cleared, this could easily get up to three and a half. And it's just about the talent level of this vikings team. And JJ McCarthy, I'm sure people looked at the passing charts. He simply can only throw to one side of the field. So I think it's in a real injury. But I get why people are like, even if this is maybe a one week thing, they might have them out for two to three weeks and I don't know. I can't believe. It's just crazy where they let Sam Donald walk and you might have a quarterback that can only throw to one side of the field. And that's what's so terrifying about drafting these rookies, putting them out there. And I mean it was one week of tape and the defense already looked like it figured out J.J. mcCarthy. So it's, it's pretty terrifying. Where the last year Sam Darnold I think had five touchdowns downs for the Vikings against Atlanta and JJ I Think got sacked like six times and was just an absolute train wreck. So, yeah, tough time being a GM right now for the Vikings and this game right here. Like you just said, I'm happy to stay away from it as you are, but I'll. I'll take the three for now. Just because it's. The Vikings are a better team. We'll see about Wentz. We know. It's just you don't know what you're getting. So there's like no chance this would be in our contest, you know, two and a half. I don't even know if I can convince myself, let alone Chad the force the Vikings in a two and a half. So I'm with you. It's the. The backup bowl. This is why we protect the quarterbacks for. Exactly. Because of game like this where it's like just protect the quarterbacks at all costs. It's just week. Week three when we down five starters. Six. Six QBs. So yeah, it's. It's an ugly one for sure. And I know usually I take the dog in the spot, but at the three, I'll take. I'll take Vikings.
- [25:34]
Chad Millman
Atlanta at Carolina. This one popped. We talked about it on Sunday night. We were. We said we're not going to be fooled by Bryce Young's comeback in the final five minutes of the games when he looked exactly like Bryce Young from last year when they went 72 against the spread and won four of those games outright. And that was before the Atlanta game against the Vikings when their defense looked. Looked really good against J.J. mcCarthy. But since then, this line has popped. It was around three, three and a half. It's gone up to five and a half. Mainly because the Panthers lost Austin Corbett, Robert Hunt, their center and their right guard. They were put on IR for an offensive line that was already having a really hard time protecting Bryce Young. I don't have an opinion on the game at five and a half just because I feel like I liked Atlanta and we've now lost the best of the number. Do you have thoughts here?
- [26:32]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. So we'll put them in our money line around Robin, but I'm with you. The best of numbers gone. And they're gonna force me. Like last week. I mean, Panthers got to seven last week at Arizona. If this gets up to seven, they're a plus seven home dog or six and a half. I'll have to do it. But like I said, I'm not punishing people on the show anymore with the Panthers. I'm not going to make them take it and it'll be my own suffering if I do. But yeah, we'll happily put the Atlanta in our mainline run. Robin. It's, it's a good spot for them. And the Panthers pull off the upset. Good. Hopefully a couple people threw the Falcons in their survivor pool, but yeah, I just, I. We can't give this out on the show.
- [27:10]
Chad Millman
It's so funny. We are so either skittish or more disciplined about these dogs at home and the big dogs and betting on quarterbacks that we don't trust. Things are different in the NFL. They just are. And so we can't. Like I said, we got to evolve with bi weeks.
- [27:32]
Simon Hunter
We in bi weeks on a game like this, we probably had to force this one in. But like, we're blessed right now. We got the full slate. We don't need to make these horrible suffering decisions yet.
- [27:41]
Chad Millman
That's right. That's right. All right, quick note from our friends at Hard Rock. We are crazy excited to announce our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock bet. I don't know if you know this. I've got a very long history of staying at Hard Rock hotels and casinos, including one football season practically living there. Literally. They've always been to me, the best combination of vibe and fun. Now you can use the top rated Hard Rock Bet sportsbook to place your bets all NFL season and beyond. Hard Rock Bet is the only legal sports book in the state of Florida and is also available in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois and Colorado, with more states launching all the time. You can also play on Hard Rock Bets online Casino if you were in New Jersey, Simon, I know you want to check that out. From here on out, you'll start to see us use Hard Rock Bet lines when we're talking about the games. And everyone knows Simon and I, we have loved getting out and doing live shows. Now we can actually do them from Hard Rock property. Simon, do we see a sharp or square live show from AC just down the road from you in our future as we gear up for NFL season. Sign up for Hard Rock bet. Make a $5 bet, you'll get $150 in bonus bets. If you win, head over to Hard Rock Bet, sign up and make your first deposit today. These are payable in bonus bets, not a cash offer. Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 and over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida, call 1-888- admit it in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809 with it gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia.
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- [32:48]
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- [33:40]
Chad Millman
Pittsburgh at New England New England is a one and a half point favorite. We talked about this on Sunday. I think we both thought this line would have moved a little bit. I think Aaron Rodgers has looked pedestrian against a Jets defense we thought might be good and a Seahawks defense that we know is good. His decision making is flawed. His reactions are slower. His lack of athleticism is being exposed. He's been sacked seven times in the first two games straight Facts here's the bigger problem with the Steelers right now, Simon. There's this defense that we love, that we think is amazing. Allowed 100 yards rushing in seven of the past 11 games, including the first two this season. The Seahawks, by the way, had 38 in the first half and 79 in the second half. Same number of carries. Alex Highsmith left the game with a high ankle sprain. They got much, much worse after that. You've been telling me believe in Vrabel, believe in Vrabel. It's time to believe in Vrabel. Do I believe in Vrabel right now? I have not bet this and all my systems are everything is telling me take the Patriots, take the Patriots. I have not bet this yet.
- [35:05]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I wish you would have believed in him last week, Bravel, but I I don't know. I went back and watched that New England Miami game and New England might be really bad. Like they, you know, Christian Gonzalez is a huge deal. He's probably the best defender. And you know, Tyreek Waddle, there's multiple plays where they were shrieking wide open. If Tua just could put the ball on the spot, you know, Miami would have had a lot of, you know, better. Miami would have probably won that game honestly, really going through it. But yeah, this, this honestly would be another time. Just honestly believe it in variable because I Know Patriot fans and Drake May truth there's are like you see how great he was against Miami. We talked about Miami secondary is horrible. Drake May had a bunch of 50, 50 balls that really worked out in his favor in that game which at the end of take because we said Miami is a really bad secondary. Jalen Ramsey has actually been pretty good for Pittsburgh and their secondary is just deceased. They have nothing left in their secondary and that, that's been the biggest issue. Right. We do, we did love their defense and it was because they've been so good over the years and they're the most expensive defense in all football. Like it's. I joked before the season with you, they're paying their defense. I think it was like $100 million more than the Eagles are and total for their own defense. And I think we'd both agree which defense we'd rather have right now. So Steelers it's, it's a, it's a game I want to dive more into my view of this one is they were books. Give us the two because right now it is a lot of Steelers money. So I'm happy to be patient. Looked at this one as maybe potential. Simon says. But after going back and watching the Miami tape, it's like, oh my God, I can't believe how bad the secondary is because it's Gino Smith week one and we just saw Gino last night look like totally lost against a banged up Chargers defense. So it's, it's just I'm, I'm going to have a little patience here with this one. Hopefully gets the two, two and a half just like last week. Right. They got the two and a half against Miami. That, that to me is a more comfortable, better spot to be in where I still just have questions about this New England team and I see what they're forming with the Rabel identity and you know that him running on the sideline with a kick right turn, like all of it. That's why we love Rabel and the play, the players play for him. But man is we joke, we joke all the time about Tomlin. Tomlin spots. I can't imagine this week in practice right. How, how it's going to be for this team. So yeah, we'll see. Chad, this one's based on the number. Be patient. If you like doing them, wait for the two. If you like Pittsburgh, I got no issue with you grabbing it now in case it goes, goes up.
- [37:53]
Chad Millman
Are you ready for a trend? I know you love the trends. Love them. From our friends at Killer sports. And this applies to a few teams this week, okay? Teams that have failed to cover in the first two weeks in week three. 60% against the spread since 2010. That includes, by the way, the Miami Dolphins. It also includes the Pittsburgh Steelers and a few other teams that we're going to talk about today. Look, I think we need to be selective when it comes to trends. Like, you can't just back them again, like blindly. We will not do it with the Dolphins. The Steelers could be more interesting, even though I don't want to play them.
- [38:41]
Simon Hunter
But if you do bet trends, that's one where like you take, like Chad just said, you take Miami, you take Houston, you take Pittsburgh here, like, that's, that's a timeless trend. I bet you're going back even further. That would hold up in week three. Just because we talk all the time, the public Gore reacts, professional Benjamin react. The number moves too much, you get value on the other side. So, yeah, that's a totally great trend to give out to start the week.
- [39:05]
Chad Millman
With Steelers, Chiefs, Saints, Bears, Broncos, Dolphins. 02 against the spread.
- [39:14]
Simon Hunter
I like a lot of those teams.
- [39:15]
Chad Millman
I do, too. So we're going to, we're going to get to the games here. I'm excited you said that. I'm going to assume that means you might like the Bears. I'm excited to talk about that. Los Angeles Rams at the Philadelphia Eagles. Eagles, three and a half point favorites right now. Look, this came up Sunday night on the show. A YouTube watcher asked if we should be in the comments, should we be considering the Rams in the money line. Your first reaction was that you didn't hate it. The line has moved in the Rams direction. It was four and a half and now it's three and a half. I have so many thoughts in this game. I need to get yours before I share mine because I feel like, I feel like I'm just going to tell you right now, I really like the Eagles here, but tell me your thoughts.
- [40:05]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I said grab the four and a half just because that was a good opening line. That was good value. I just stayed away from the money line here just because of the history of these two teams. Some. Some teams just have some team, other teams numbers and you know, you dive into this Rams team. I believe their last 11 games they've won nine. Their two losses were to this Eagles team. So some teams just match up well against you and apparently that's what it is with this Eagles team. Rams, I believe last week, something crazy. It was the most. It was the Biggest blowout of the Stafford McVeigh tandem. Isn't that crazy?
- [40:43]
Chad Millman
And it wasn't even that big.
- [40:45]
Simon Hunter
No. So it's been a weird, a weird case of, you know, these Rams just take care of business, beat these teams close and the Eagles. This is. As an Eagles fan, this is like my, I don't know if this is peak right now of my phantom, but this is as good as it gets. This week. You got guys like Adam Scheffer, all these different, you know, sideline reporters coming on just saying it's not a football play. This is why they got to get rid of the tush push. And I am just loving it. It's the best as a fan where your team is so good at a QB sneak, people want it banned, they want it out of the game forever. And I love it. This is any Eagles fan. This is peak, right? Two Super Bowls in seven years. Everyone just hates them. People say this is the most boring offense in all football.
- [41:36]
Chad Millman
Who cares?
- [41:38]
Simon Hunter
It's a score to the sport. They forget. This Eagles team last year scored the most points in NFL history in the playoffs. This boring, horrible offense. Think of all the great offenses that ever played this sport. This Eagles team with this boring push, push, running the ball 5 yards, 2 yards at a time. Most points scored in NFL history in the playoffs last year. So I love it. It's just a team that I talked about last year. The Eagles are chameleons. They will form to whatever the other team is and just suffocate them, whatever their weakness is, whatever it takes to win the game, whether it just be the most boring, slow, bleed them out type of style or pushing the ball downfield if they need to. So I like this match before. I feel like the same reasons you do of this is peak overrated Rams team right now, it feels like. And a bad spot for those Rams team in the sense that I think we both agree. We have questions about that Houston team. We have major questions about Tennessee. That Eagles team, they showed me last week because I, I did in the back of my head, I did think that was a terrible spot for them going against that Chiefs team where we know how desperate the Chiefs are going to be and all the stuff that came along with it. If this is late in the season, I'd be with you. I'd be way more confident on the Eagles here at three and a half. I'm not going to force it because I did see threes pop and then you quickly saw go right to three and a half. So I have no bets on this other than my Rams four and a half ticket. But I think we're lined up that this is probably going to hit a point where this is going to be an Eagles value line and I'll wait for that. But as we sit here right now, I'm tempted on it because I just, I see how, how much better the Seagulls team is, but I'm not going to force it.
- [43:23]
Chad Millman
I watch this Eagles team and feel like they're at the height of their powers and this is a 100% perception versus reality game because I do think the Eagles can kind of do whatever they want at this point. And I think they can play over the top if they have to. I think they can play physical if they have to. I think they can rush the passer if they want to. I think the Rams right now are getting a lot of credit for being really aggressive and having a defensive line that created a lot of pressure against a Texas team that we saw can't handle pressure. And against the Titans team that we'll get into is actually the worst at handling pressure of any team in football right now. So, like their QB pressure rate offensively, defending his opponents is I think 31st or 32nd, only worse than maybe only the Bengals are worse. And this is without being blitzed. So like that discrepancy is massive. So the Rams all of a sudden getting too much credit. Here's my big fear and it's why to me, it's not a Chad loves love yet. Because this was like peak Chad loves love for me, I'm gonna tell you. And I'm a little worried about the secondary against the Rams because Stafford and Puka and Devonte, they looked really good. Like that might be the strength of their team right now.
- [44:58]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. My biggest question fear for the Eagles right now is the offensive coordinator is someone who's never done the job before and he sounds the part. He talks good talk in his interviews. He's. He's got all that down pat. But I have real questions about his offense, his scheme. It is very simple, but it's very simple and easy to read and very basic. And I know it's early days here, right? So it's. I get it. They're not trying to put too much on Jalen's plate, but it's always a little nervous when it's. It's someone's name that you don't know. They've never been in this position before and they got it because he was very loyal to Sirianni. He's been with Sirianni the whole way. He's been his guy. Hurts, went to bat form helped him get the job as well. But through two weeks I think that's the only glaring weakness right now is hurts and learning this offensive system. And the second biggest one is what Chad just mentioned. The number two corner of this Eagles team. So things that the Rams team could exploit like this Rams team, they're a well oiled machine. There's a reason I love them coming to the year if Stafford was healthy because I told you that that Adams AD getting rid of Cooper cup was a huge deal. And replacing a guy like Adams who might be still the best route runner of all football. He's just so crisp everything he does and yeah it's, it's a, it's a crazy game to have at one o'. Clock. I can't believe this is not the Sunday night game.
- [46:21]
Chad Millman
Yeah, right.
- [46:22]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's, it's a game. I'm sure we're gonna talk more on Thursday as we sit there right now I think we're both lining up to be on this Eagle side.
- [46:27]
Chad Millman
Yeah, definitely. Las Vegas at Washington. The games moved to three and a half from six and a half basically because there's Jaden Daniels intrigue. We don't know if he's going to be playing or not. He's got an injured knee, had an mri so kind of a pass for me until we know what's happening.
- [46:46]
Simon Hunter
Okay. I, I, I'll probably be on the Raiders here. I'll take this early in line of three and a half. Just in the simple fact it was everything went wrong. Horrible game obviously. Short week flying out east. I just think everyone's going to be on Washington whether it's Daniels or not. So if it's Daniels, you know I'll miss it. This number will go way up and I'll just avoid this game if it's not. I could see the season again down to two and a half three like it is all Daniels. Washington is nothing without Daniels. That's not that talented of a defense. They're an older team and I don't think you can just have someone else step in and replace what Daniels does. So that Vegas team, they were good in that game in my opinion. Like it was just all Geno. Like he just failed them in a million different ways. So another game I'm not going to force in because of how bad Geno played. And he's another guy in a new offense with Chip Kelly that he was not throwing with confidence and had some horrible, horrible reads in that game against the Chargers. So it's a big difference going from the Chargers to Washington. We know that. So, yeah, it's another game where like Chad said, we can be patient with it, see what the injury news is on Daniels, but really wish I gave it out Sunday night. It was six. I looked at it when it was six and I was like, man, I'm not going to just take this line just in case. If the Raiders get rolled this gets up to seven. I should have taken it. We should have known something was up with Daniels and he looked banged up in that game.
- [48:17]
Chad Millman
New York jets at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is a seven point favorite again. The signals are screaming, take the jets like you take a team that just got blown out. The number is going to be inflated. I think the number is up a tick or two because of what happened last night with Baker and their ability to come back and it's the second week in a row and people having faith in what Baker can do. We don't know the status of Justin Fields and whether or not he's going to be playing because he was being evaluated for a concussion. Honestly, Tyrant Taylor, in terms of game management and accuracy and short throws, which is what the, the jets are relying on, he might be an upgrade. So I'm not saying we're taking the jets here, but it scares me less.
- [49:12]
Simon Hunter
Than you think I get as a, as a Bears fan. You're a hate of your ex quarterback, but I actually have. I have him as at least a point. I believe in my model higher than Taylor. So Fields to me is. It'd be great if he's in this, but this is really about the number. Once again, I think in the audience, I actually kind of love the jets on the spot and I think you're gonna hate it because it's. They got burned from it last week, but you can't bet that way as a better. You kind of gotta move on and burn it. You learn from it, right? That was a bad read. But I think we can all agree that was a bad read because of all the things we've seen with Fields, right? He just completely flaked out and was a zero in that game. And yeah, major questions about this shit's defense. I'm starting every day. As this season goes along, I get more and more respect for Salah and well, it looks like he might be a defensive genius because this actually might be a horrible defense on the jets and he was the one that was so good and made them look so good. But the Bucks have injuries. Like, we saw how banged up that offensive line got in that game and how Baker was just getting crushed that whole game. And Baker might be banged up too. So grabbing. Grab the Sevens as you can. I'd grab it right now. Jets. Yeah.
- [50:25]
Chad Millman
No. Is it assignment says.
- [50:27]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, we'll see. I have another game I'm assuming we both like. And if. If, if you. There's two other games I really like, but I'm. I'm grabbing this one right now. I'm not gonna make a Simon says because I. I do see this potentially growing. Like this could get up seven half. But even at six and a half, people are gonna hate it. I just. I don't know how we don't have this one in the contest. It's just gonna. Listen, we'll see.
- [50:52]
Chad Millman
I'm thrilled. Yeah, I'm thrilled.
- [50:55]
Simon Hunter
I know we're going to love. But like, I just couldn't get over the fact that this number was this big. And the Bucks do roll teams. It does happen, but they usually play to their competition level and squeak by and pull out wins. Now you're added on top of that, them being banged up and, you know, say what you want. That's just defense. They do have a pretty good defensive line in some aspects, and if the middle line's banged up, that's. That's really where they can shine with Quinn Williams. So, yeah, I. I'm glad we're aligned on it. Was hoping because it's a couple seven half steps did pop. It said seven at Hard Rock. I'm happy taking the seven. Just. I was going to make it. Simon said. Like I said, it's. It came down from the seven half, so I'm not going to make it that. But I do love the seven.
- [51:40]
Chad Millman
Do you think Todd Bowles let Nick Chubb score last night so he could get the ball back quicker? Or do you think that was just a defensive breakdown? If you look at the play I've seen this online this morning, it looks like the Bucks basically just let him run right through them. And it was especially weird since the Texans had not been able to run the ball all night. And all of a sudden there's a gaping hole and the guy can score a touchdown. Do you have it?
- [52:09]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I like the idea. And I agree with you that during that game, I thought to myself, nick Chubb looks like he has nothing left. And that one play, he breaks it for. What was it? 25, 21 yards. Yeah, I'm with you on that.
- [52:20]
Chad Millman
And then it was brilliant because they had three timeouts and they were either going to bleed their timeouts and they had to go run down the field or they had to keep their timeouts and go score a touchdown. Like I loved it in the end if that's what he did. Total Ninja total total ninja Indianapolis at Tennessee. Tennessee is a 3 1/2 point favorite. You called this one on Sunday night. You said take the Colts at plus three. I dare at minus three. I did take the Colts. Look, Indianapolis Colts right now are probably the greatest offense in the history of the NFL and I think we don't take into account the old sort of tropes Division dog plus three at home. Like I don't think things think these things are actually as relevant as they used to be. And to me this is really about the running game. Like Jonathan Taylor has been magnificent for this team both out of the backfield catching the ball and running the ball. The Titans are allowing A League worst 5.4 yards per carry in the first two weeks on defense. On offense I mentioned their QB pressure rate is second highest while the opponents are blitzing at such a low rate. It's only 23rd against them in the NFL. So the gap between the pressure and the blitz is massive. I feel good about the Colts even, even at minus three and a half.
- [53:55]
Simon Hunter
I do too. My negative view of this one is going to be something we always fear of, which is a home divisional dog that is surely, surely going to be getting less than 10% of the money and the bets. This is going to be the biggest need of the books this weekend. I have no doubt.
- [54:16]
Chad Millman
This is such a public play. There's no doubt about it. We are leaning into so we were.
- [54:20]
Simon Hunter
Totally torched by Dallas last week and literally they were the same thing. 90% of the money, 9% of the bets. And I didn't mind it because the Dallas was at home and even though we were deader than dead, there was still a little glimmer at that overtime. We could have got to that number. But here I'm with you. It's I couldn't believe the number on Sunday night. I could not believe they hung a three and I said that. I was like I'm taking this now because there's only one way this is going to go. There's no way this gets to two and a half. If it got to two and a half the alarms would be going off all over the place that this was a really bad spots for the Colt team. So trying to find angles for this Titans Team Colt secondaries banged up. Can Daniel Jones keep playing at this pace? The man is not. Not punted. Right. They've not punted this year.
- [55:09]
Chad Millman
This Colts team, I don't think they have.
- [55:12]
Simon Hunter
I just. I can't get over how well he played, even going back and watching it, and how well they ran the ball against that Broncos defense, which we said they were going to take a step down, that Broncos defense, but that's still a really good defense. So another. Only angles are gonna attack. Really. Chad is like, okay, you have a cold scene that actually plays fast now, coming outdoors, playing on grass, and you have a Tennessee team that is just left for dead by everybody, including me and Chad, who loved them just a week ago. So, just gonna give us pause here. But I. I hate it. I think we both want to be in the Colts, but I just. I gotta. I gotta take a step back on this one. We'll talk about on Thursday, But I. I know. I know this is going to be the biggest need for the book. I just can't. I don't know who's betting. I don't know who's betting Tennessee at this number, like we said, The Colts, I feel like, have earned the respect to be at this number, to be up to six or five on the road in this divisional game. They just. They feel like that much better of a team. And like you said, the coaching of Tennessee and the stuff they do is just so bad. So, yeah, it's. I'll be patient here. People can tell I'm a little spooked on this one. Even though I loved it on Sundays, I can't. I can't believe that this hasn't gone up to five, six.
- [56:24]
Chad Millman
Well, look, you love the number on Sunday.
- [56:26]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [56:27]
Chad Millman
When I did the research yesterday, I was really concerned at how much I love the game.
- [56:33]
Simon Hunter
It's great matchup for the Colts.
- [56:34]
Chad Millman
Nearly made it A. Chad loves love. Nearly. And, like, it just felt. No, that's. It's so chalky. You're setting yourself up to be disappointed. You're going to look like an idiot. You can't handle that. It will make your Sunday miserable. I've already betted at three. I'm not walking away from that.
- [56:55]
Simon Hunter
No.
- [56:56]
Chad Millman
But geez Louise, man, that just feels. We'd be walking into it. We'd be walking into, as we used to like to say, a hornet's nest.
- [57:04]
Simon Hunter
I know. And I can already see the future where it's like, we have one spot open, and we're just like, let's just throw the Coolest in.
- [57:10]
Chad Millman
We're gonna, you know what it is? We're gonna get lazy. It's gonna be like parenting my wife and I.
- [57:16]
Simon Hunter
It's like we said, we said something more. When you feel easier with the losses, right? What would you feel easier? Losing this bet or are we taking the Giants at home against the Chiefs? You know what I mean? So it's, it's tough.
- [57:27]
Chad Millman
Or by the way, New Orleans plus seven and a half on the road at Seattle. This is one of those games I talked about that stat earlier.02 against the spread and the perception is going to be that you want to back off when it comes to the Saints. Meanwhile, the Seahawks really played well and hard against the niners in Week 1. Lost in the final moments of the game. Then they went out and dominated the Steelers and made the Steelers look really bad. So are the Seahawks, is the Seahawks defense great? I do think it's great. They have, they have not played a defense, the Saints have not played a defense as good as the Seahawks yet who have the highest QB pressure rate and the second lowest blitz percentage. So they are getting pressure with their front four. Just rushing four. Saints are keeping themselves alive in these games though. And granted they've been at home but still like they're making it hard. This feels so much more trappy than the Colts. It feels greedy to betting on the, to be betting on the Seahawks at minus seven and a half. Give me your take. Are we being courageous? Do we love the Saints here? I feel like you're going to tell me this as Simon says.
- [58:51]
Simon Hunter
Who on the Saints?
- [58:52]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [58:53]
Simon Hunter
No, thank God, not. Boy, almost every pro I've talked to I think is in alignment with you in this exact spot on the Saints team. And I, I think the Saints are in that, that description of the Owen 2 against the spread, right? They are, yeah. So you know, they, they fit the trends. My model has six. So like I should be on the Saints team. But what you just said terrifies me. How do the Saints move the ball and score against the Seahawks defense? And you know, as much as we want to badmouth Sam Darnold, you know, I feel like this is probably a good spot for him with his offense and the way they can run the ball against a Saints team that can't really stop the run. Let's be honest, we have two weeks now and it looks like this is just a team that simply will struggle all season against the run. So I, I, I, I love the number. Like that's what sucks so much is like, man, this is an incredible, incredible number, but I'll have to be patient. Like, I, I, I already have seen it. Right now, I'm looking right now. There's, there's books that have hit seven. So, yeah, clearly, clearly the professional side is a Saints. I need to just nut up and do it, I'm sure, but I just haven't bet it yet. Like, there's other games I've bet heavy this week, and this is not one of them. I've just been watching this and saying to myself, can this get to eight? Can I get the eight and a half? And now I'm looking. It's going the other way. So I might just have to take the seven and a half.
- [60:23]
Chad Millman
And I don't think it's getting, I don't think it's going up because the Seahawks, I don't think yet, are sort of enough of a public team. Right. And because they're, if you look at the record, they're one and one. And some people are coming to this who are going to be betting on the weekend. They're going to see a Seahawks team that is one and one. They're not going to recognize that they beat the Steelers, who are one now, one and one. They lost to the Niners, who everyone thinks are great still. So they're not going to be a public side like a heavy public side. This is a professional game.
- [60:57]
Simon Hunter
Oh, yeah. And this is just like that. Tennessee. This is gonna be pros versus chose.
- [61:04]
Chad Millman
We're gonna end up betting Saints. I don't know if it'll be in the contest, but it'll be, it'll be.
- [61:08]
Simon Hunter
It's a tempting number. Seven and a half.
- [61:10]
Chad Millman
Seven and a half. All right. The Broncos are one of those teams that fits that model of having yet to cover, and so the perception is a little bit off. I don't have a great read on this one. I think the Broncos defense might be overrated. They're getting a lot of pressure, but they're also blitzing 50% of the. I think the Chargers are kind of good, and they, they backed it up last night after a week one against the Chiefs. So two and a half is a fishy number to me. I don't, I don't really want anything to do with this.
- [61:44]
Simon Hunter
Simon says, give me Denver Love, love, love, love, love Denver in this spot. And I get the fear, what you're saying about this Chargers team. Like, they have looked really good. I mean, Herbert looks all world looks incredibly talented. And dream, dream start for them, right? Two. Two starts, one in Brazil, then in Vegas in your division, you win them both. Now you're coming back home. A chance to go three and oh. In the division, start the season. Chargers will win this game, but it won't be by more than two. Chad, this is such a number to play, such a spot to play. On this Broncos team who I was banging the drum to start the season, they were 8, 0, or was it 9, 080? I'm pretty sure Bo Nicks last year as a favorite against the spread, he was perfect. Let's see this year. Chad 02 as a favorite. So the public is totally, totally done with the Broncos. And this is exactly where I step in. Like, this is my favorite bets where it's like you line it up. Last week, love the Colts. And I knew no matter what the number was going to be on the Broncos, I was going to probably love them even better. Like, I haven't modeled a pick them in the Charger. I do have the great. The Broncos graded higher than this Chargers team because people aren't realizing this. This Chargers team is banged up. This is a Chargers team that, you know, they've lost key guys on offense of line. That's a big deal. And they've gotten away with it somehow because, you know, Herbert's so talented and horrible. Even their defense, I cannot get over how good their defense has played two weeks in. But you couldn't be in bigger of a letdown spot against a very desperate, angry Broncos team that's being undervalued by the general public right now like this people had. The Broncos is the best team, as one of the best teams, I should say, in the afc. That hasn't changed. Right? They just. They haven't played well. They had a fluky loss last week, and now the Lions punish him for that. This probably should have been one, maybe a pick if they win. Instead, it's two and a half. I mean, if you're lucky, you can find a 3. But I think professionals are gonna have models like me, and they're gonna come in and hit this no matter what if it touches three. So no chance we get three and a half in contest. If we do, what a gift that would be on this Broncos team against the Chargers that are just. I don't know which more. Who's more peaked out right now than Mer. Green Bay.
- [64:02]
Chad Millman
It's.
- [64:02]
Simon Hunter
It's close, though. I. I think it might be the Chargers. This is just an egregious line for a really tough divisional game. So, yeah, it's. It's shocking that you weren't too confident on this Bronco side. I thought you were going to be all in fading this Chargers team after last night.
- [64:20]
Chad Millman
Well, look, I haven't had a chance to watch the game because I go to sleep at 9 o'.
- [64:26]
Simon Hunter
Clock.
- [64:26]
Chad Millman
Yeah, it was late and so it didn't start until 10. And this morning when I was rowing, I decided to watch the Browns because I was a little bit more intrigued and figured I could catch up on the Chargers. I was pretty disappointed in the Broncos. I've been disappointed in their defense. I'm disappointed in the underlying metrics. I see.
- [64:47]
Simon Hunter
This is good week one, I know.
- [64:49]
Chad Millman
But against the Colts, like I just can't believe how much they have to blitz to get any kind of pressure.
- [64:53]
Simon Hunter
That's fair.
- [64:54]
Chad Millman
And so that, that is concerning to me.
- [64:58]
Simon Hunter
Well, there's, there is one three out there so you might we you could be patient if you want. I would just grab the two and a half now in case it comes down.
- [65:05]
Chad Millman
I'll roll with you on it. If you feel that strongly about it.
- [65:07]
Simon Hunter
I'll go from the general public. But if you want to bet it, I'm happy you get in the party. It's. It's a nice number in a nice spot.
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- [68:43]
Chad Millman
So maybe this this next game. The Cowboys at the Bears the line is one and a half. The first move was in the Cowboys direction. The Bears are favored by by a one and a half. This is, you know, train wreck of expectations meets the mismanagement bowl, right? Like Jadavian Clowney isn't coming in to save this Cowboys team. All I read about from the Bears is they're encouraged by by Caleb Williams progress. He made better plays. He got his feet set. He wasn't as twitchy with his eyes. All these kinds of things looking for anything to make them feel good. In a blowout against the Lions, the Bears fit the fit the model. You know what I mean? Like it. They're the team that hasn't covered so much animosity and Negativity against them. Yeah, it's. Well, to me, you kind of have to back the Bears if you're going to play this game. But a one and a half, it feels sketchy. Like, I. I'm not loving one and a half as a number lately.
- [69:59]
Simon Hunter
Oh, my God. This is almost Simon says I left it for you. So either one. This Simon says or Denver Simon says. I love them both.
- [70:06]
Chad Millman
You like the Bears?
- [70:07]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, Bears. You have to bet this one. If you're a fan of this show, you gotta do it. Like, Chad's so right. It's all bad. It's all negative right now for this Bears team. Felt like an incredible fluky loss week one. And I do put the blame, obviously, on Caleb for these first two weeks in some aspects, but it's hard to blame them really for that Lions game. But it just. They ran into a buzz saw. Like, it just felt like every. Everything was taken out on them from Detroit on defensive side and the offensive side. And Caleb is my only true hesitation here, where it's like, if you. If Sunday morning, you're just like, I can't trust Caleb. I don't believe in him yet. I can see where you're coming from just because I've watched both games twice and both times it's like you see the raw talent, but you see all the stupid shit he needs to just grow out of the holding onto the ball for too long, not making the read and just making the throw and trying to look for the other reads where it's like, you don't have five, six seconds back there to run around. So for Caleb's weaknesses, Dallas, to me, can't exploit it. They don't have guys on that front that really terrify in the past for us aspect. So organizationally, I feel like Chad should hope they go over three because maybe they fire the general manager. They just gave an extension to who didn't deserve it in any way. But just an incredible, unique spot on the Bears team that Chad talked about. It's like the over two stuff, all that is a big deal, but it's also just public perception, right? This number should be two and a half, three Bears. Honestly, like, I have a model that two and a half personally think it should be three. It's one live right now at Hard Rock here in Jersey. So it's come down. It's minus one right now in the Bears, so the public and the professionals might be lined up in the Cowboys. And I honestly kind of love it. It's like I can't believe they're missing this one on this Bears team that I think will be able to move the ball offensively against obviously this Dallas defense. But defensively, I know you guys just lost your all pro corner, but you, you like to think there's a way they can scheme up, they can take away the passing game and try to make this Cowboys team just run the ball because we've seen it now. That's. That's the only way to really shut down that offense. And yeah, it's, you know, we've seen that. This. You talked about chad. The over two teams. 02 against the spread. The reason that 60% exists is just because football is such an incredibly desperate sport. And this to me is going to be such a hungry, desperate spot of any team I could think of. I think the Bears are number one where if they're over three, they know their season is officially over and it's all coming crashing down on them. So I love the Bears at this number. I love the fact that I'm checking the charts right now and that's what I love too. This week I'll be in the books talking different people. I keep a tally of these certain games. I can't imagine how many people are going to say they're on the Bears this week with us. So it's just another great spot, gross spot that our fans are going to hate. But you got to bet it got to take the Bears here.
- [73:15]
Chad Millman
You're not wrong about the Bears and the GM Ryan polls. I feel like he got an extension because he won the press release. You know what I mean? Like anytime there's like a move within corporate management, a press release goes out or a memo goes out. And we always used to do this idiots panel like who won the memo? Who like looks like they really got a lot of good stuff and are in a new position of power. He won the memo the last two years. Getting Caleb, getting Ben Johnson. The Bears are so mismanaged and they're so incompetent and the ownership group is so bad, which now everybody is understanding because there's been so much reporting out there. Like they gave that extension because they finally had someone within management getting good publicity who looked like he was doing the right things. And it turns out it could be all the wrong things. We don't know this yet. Certainly he didn't deserve, he did not deserve yet the extension. We should have seen what actually happened with some of these assets that he's gone out and bought.
- [74:23]
Simon Hunter
And I think you nail the part of he got that extension because he got incredibly lucky that Carolina took Bryce Young and not CJ Stroud and totally nuked their picks that they'd given back to him. If they'd taken C.J. i could see even if it wasn't that big of a difference. People think because how bad the Panthers are ran as an organization, they wouldn't have gave him the number one pick. I don't think he would have been the number one pick. Caroline would have gave that out. I think they would have finished probably five or six, whatever it would have been. But just this past year, I couldn't stomach the fact that you passed on Warren, the tight end and took that guy Cortland Loveland.
- [75:02]
Chad Millman
Coast, was it Loveless?
- [75:05]
Simon Hunter
Lovelace, Loveland? I don't know.
- [75:07]
Chad Millman
Here's the point. It's like you just dipped into the Chicago Bears friends chat because we're all like, where's the tight end? That everyone has been saying all training camp is amazing. And meanwhile, Ty Warren is looking like the kind of all pro who just runs over people for the next 10 years.
- [75:30]
Simon Hunter
He's a stud. So I'm feeling Bears fans, but I know they don't want to hear it. But this is, this is a great spot to back your team and bet on the Bears. So double misery if they lose. But I'm telling you, I love the Bears in the spot.
- [75:44]
Chad Millman
Colston Loveland, by the way.
- [75:46]
Simon Hunter
There it is.
- [75:46]
Chad Millman
I'm getting so upset. I'm losing focus. Look, all right, you mentioned desperation. You mentioned a team that hasn't covered. We're going to get to that in one second. But first, let's talk about Arizona, San Francisco. San Francisco is a short home favorite, one and a half. I think I lean Niners here because of the coaching advantage. Some pretty major injuries in the card secondary. I think that maybe they are being. I think that Mac Jones could potentially be undervalued here. Don't have strong opinions yet on this one, but don't hate the Niners at minus one and a half.
- [76:28]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, no read on it. Haven't bet it. You know, I honestly thought my model to have Arizona as the favorite here, it's right in line with the books. I literally have the 49ers on minus one. So no edge. Really no value to my model on the on this number. And I feel like I'm like you and I'm trying to break this one down and try to find an edge. It's a lot of it honestly points to me liking the Cardinals and then being a little undervalued just because they didn't cover last week and if they had maintained that blowout probably are the favorite in this spot and I feel like this number is shaded towards this 49ers team that yeah, Mac Jones did step and make throws, but I don't know that Saints team, man, they just. There were so many different times where they just had bad penalties or just gave the way to this 49ers team where Arizona surprisingly has been pretty well coached this year. But Chad said at the top the secondary of this Cardinals team got ravaged by injuries at the end of that game. So another game I'm not going to rush into. Tempted again tempted because you can get kyler right now plus 105 as a dog on the road. But I'll be patient, wait for the injury report and see what's what with this Arizona defense because I think we're on different sides. Like I get your love for the 49ers. I think they won. They won big on the Mac Jones. We've seen that the backup quarterback the one week he comes in and wins the next week. You don't want to bet on the backup to win two weeks in a rodeo. So it's an interesting spot where I can't believe I think Arizona's gonna be 30 to start the but here we are.
- [78:04]
Chad Millman
You mentioned desperation, you mentioned Hungary, you mentioned a team that can't be 03. You mentioned a team that needs a win I'll add for its lungs. I'm giving you a team that has not covered the spread that the perception is way, way down. I'm talking about the Kansas City Chiefs visiting the New York Football Giants. They are minus five and a half point favorites right now. Sunday Night Football. Simon Hunter, is this sharp? Is it square? Can the Chiefs be undervalued right now as favorites?
- [78:46]
Simon Hunter
Talk to me, the five and a half gotta listen on Sundays that was sharp because we talked about how that number to me just was not going to exist and that it was going to get bet up. I'm looking at Hard Rock right now in New Jersey chat. It is six. So the number has moved to six. There's one public book or two public books out there still at five and a half. Hopefully by the time you hear this you can get it because I think you're leaning towards the Chiefs here.
- [79:14]
Chad Millman
Simon. Chad loves, love. Chad loves the Kansas City Chiefs at.
- [79:20]
Simon Hunter
Five and a half though I would.
- [79:22]
Chad Millman
Still play it at six. Like because you know, at five and a half I'm winning at six at six I'm pushing. I think the Chiefs are primed to really pull off a mastermind trick here. So I like the Chiefs at five and a half or six. Chad loves. Love. Chad loves the Chiefs.
- [79:41]
Simon Hunter
And you might get the five and a half again down the road. If you, if you're hearing this and your, your book doesn't have anymore just because the professionals are going to keep coming on this Giants team. They love them, they're their darling. And this is obviously a chief spot we talked about winning and hopefully covering. But my God, this is six and a half which a couple books have hit on this giant side. So this is a six and a half home dog in a Sunday night game that no one's going to be betting. The Giants. Everyone, all public is going to be on the Chiefs because they're like me and Chad where it's like they're not going oh and three. This Chiefs team is not going to oh three. Like this is. We got a hard talk coming up about Survivor and this might be one of them. But yeah, I'm with Chad like at the five and a half. That's like we said something that's great value. Like this should be six or six and a half. So I would take the Chiefs. I know they have all these injuries and all that, but it's really, really betting on just what we've seen with Andy against bad teams. But also spags in this defense against this Giants offense that look like world beaters against Dallas. But you saw that, that they're really not right. It's all Russ thrown 50, 50 balls downfield and they were hitting against Dallas like. Yeah, wide open hitting too. It's not going to be like that against the Spacs defense. So I think we're in alignment here. But just be careful out there, people. If you're. If you're only options of six and a half, I would not take the Chiefs minus six and a half. I just, I've been burned so many times by Mahomes once he crosses that six number. So that to me that's gonna. I'll try to find more trends on it. But. But it's a key number the six and I think here it matters because the books knew what they were doing. Like I said Sunday, I couldn't believe they hung the five and a half. Two books out there. Oh, even going live, one of the books just moved to six. There's one book left at five and a half. It's. It's just a good number. So I think we line up on the same side, the chief side. But it's. It's unfortunate. Probably gonna be six and a half in our contest.
- [81:46]
Chad Millman
Yeah. I'm still seeing five and a half and six, so I don't feel bad saying that it's five and a half. I'm taking the five and a half. Chad loves. Love. That's what I'm doing. I feel like I deserve it. Because it's available. Because it's available in a lot of places. Yeah. Last game, Detroit at Baltimore. Baltimore's moved down from six to five and a half. It's the Monday Night Football game. Simon, do you agree with the move? Is it sharp or square to be taking the Lions right now, which is what the early move the professional betters have decided to do.
- [82:31]
Simon Hunter
It's obviously sharp side, this line side, because I did think it was going to go up. Right. I think a couple books opened at six.
- [82:37]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [82:38]
Simon Hunter
Like you just said, now it's down to four and a half.
- [82:40]
Chad Millman
Wicked number. Wicked, wicked number.
- [82:43]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And I think this is really just because of this Ravens defense that you just said it, that that Browns team was moving the ball. It was really on Joe Flacco. And we talked last year. This Ravens team did struggle early in the year. Defensively, it took or a little bit to get these guys right. And I think he's like my age. I think he's 34, 35. Their D.C. their coordinator, which again, doesn't matter. Age doesn't matter, but it still shows. He's a green behind the ears. And it's like you've seen it a little bit here two years in a row that the defense just comes out slow and they don't look great. And this Detroit team showed that they're still the same old offense, I suppose. Chad. So I don't know what to do because the move the line moves so much. Right. I did like the lines. I mean, Hard Rock right now. You can still get the five and a half here in Jersey. So it's like, I'll grab that number. But I'm shocked, shocked it's moved. Oh, it's five now in Jersey. Detroit, I'm shocked it moves so quickly to four and a half. So they're respecting. Money is coming to lines and I'm looking the splits right now, and it's all Ravens money. So, you know, that's. That's pretty telling that the books have moved. Even though taking tons of tickets and tons of bets on this Raven side, they've moved it, you know, a full point and a Half now down from six to four and a half. So we might end up in the lines here. Like if this, if this keeps moving. Yeah, I'm gonna be pretty enticed because four and a half. I'm taking the line. So I'll still grab it. But you know, at one point this is flip to a Ravens. A Ravens number because we know if.
- [84:24]
Chad Millman
You'Re taking the four and a half, if you're taking the four and a half,' then you're gonna take the five and you're gonna take the five and a half, a lot of which is still available. Here's what's interesting about the Ravens. So I gave the. At the beginning of the show, we'll take this full circle. I gave all the stats for the Browns in that Ravens game. Yeah, the flip side of that is that this game was 10:3 at halftime. The Ravens scored on a putt return that led to a short field and a field goal. They blocked a punt that led to a short field and a touchdown interception led to a short field and a touchdown fumble return for a touchdown. Browns go on fourth down. End of the game. Don't make it. Short field and a touchdown for Baltimore. That's 31 points off of Brown's incompetence in a game that they won 41 to 17. So this defense has been middle of the road. When you look at the Lions, the Packers may be a great defense. We don't know yet, but we know that the Bears are amongst the league's worst defense. So you're asking yourself, where are the Lions right now? I would expect a competitive matchup. I feel like five and a half is still too high for this game. This was going to be my other Chad Loves love. And I decided I need to go with the more desperate team.
- [85:48]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, no, I'm glad we're both lined up in the Lions because I could see the Ravens angle inside of it. But I do agree if you, if you dive more into that game and I mean, I can't believe you went back and watched. I didn't even need to go back and watch it, but because I just me it was like that's a painful watch watching that Brown Browns second half against that Ravens team, especially if you had money on them. But yeah, I think we're both in alignment of the offense. As great as it looked against the Bills, they obviously couldn't run the ball at all. Against Cleveland. They just moved to the past. And again, that's why Lamar is the early MVP right now. He just does it all. But yeah, that's, that's really about the number. And I think we're both in agreement that the lines, even if they're getting rolled, I still think they could find a way to the back door, keep it closed. And I believe the last time they played the Ravens might have beat them by like 30 something crazy at home in this exact spot. So I'll dive more into the numbers of trends in this one. But as we sit here right now, I think we're in alignment that we both like the early line value, especially five and a half before it moves down to four and a half, which was we both think that's the way it's going.
- [86:50]
Chad Millman
All right, so let's recap a little bit because this will talk about on Thursday. We're definitely keeping a close eye on Cleveland. Cleveland at Green or Green Bay at Cleveland. Cleveland's plus eight and a half right now. We're keeping an eye on the Steelers and the Patriots. Definitely keeping a close eye on the Eagles. Keeping a close eye on the jets, the Colts. Are we keeping an eye on the Saints? Do we feel like the Saints will Keeping an eye on the Saints, Simon says is Denver plus two and a half. Simon also loves the Bears minus one and a half. Kansas City, it's at five and a half or six. That's Chad loves love. And we're keeping an eye on Detroit plus five and a half. I covered it all on Thursday. We'll narrow it down. We'll recap where we think we're landing for our final five as a preview for Sunday. We'll get into Survivor. We'll get into Brass Balls. We will get into rock and a hard place. Hard Rock bet of the week. We will get into our moneyline favorite round robin. Our moneyline artist underdog round robin, Sharp versus Square. All that good stuff. This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast network. We will be back on Thursday. Man, it's going to be an exciting Thursday. Watch or listen on YouTube @Sharpersquare. Like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Also download us from Spotify, Apple pods, wherever you get your pods rate, review, subscribe, move us five stars. Say whatever you want. Listen, I know I've been saying this but we want to get a huge, huge, huge amount of 5 star reviews and comments before we start reading the comments back. Best and funniest. In the spirit of the show, you know what to say. Swag will come your way. I just did that right here. Until next time. Love you.
- [88:53]
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- [89:44]
Chad Millman
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- [90:14]
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Simon Hunter
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