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Sharp or Square
NFL Week 3 Reaction: Rams-Eagles, Packers-Browns, Cowboys-Bears + Early Week 4 leans
00:51:23
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- [00:00]
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- [02:25]
D
Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are a part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined by my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon.
- [02:46]
E
God, how are we feeling?
- [02:48]
D
Oh my God. What the freak actually happened today? Every one of our bets was in the middle of all of this chaos today, we had the Eagles minus three and a half. Might be one of the greatest miracle wins and covers either of us have ever had. We had the jets similarly earning a cover off of a blocked kick just as the Eagles won their cover. The Browns miracle win somewhat miracle cover Texans giving it away with turnovers in the red zone twice with chances to take the lead or tie the game. And then the Broncos making so many penalties and so many mental mistakes, they give up the game. They don't cover. The script writers for the NFL are on fire right now. Just give them the freaking Emmy because, like, insane, insane three and two day for us. And the truth is, until about 4pm we were headed for one and three. So, you know, brother, you were way too. I texted you at one point, I'm like, what the freak is happening? You just wrote back football. You didn't even give me any exclamation points. Like, yeah, this is how I expected it to go.
- [04:13]
E
It is. It's 60 minutes. It's like I. I never get too high or too low until the final whistle is blown because football is. I say it every time. A really stupid game played with a weirdly shaped ball and it makes no sense. Like, the bounces today, we just talked about it. Did we get unlucky? And it was Denver and Houston games. Sure. But it's like we got lucky in other games. Just how it is, right? The bounces went our way in the other games. The other two games they didn't. And we try as best as we can just to bet the numbers because it's like it's such a stupid, chaotic sport. We talk all the time. Like Survivor these first three, four weeks, there's no rhythm to the season. All these teams are working through stuff, trying to find their own identity. It's just chaos and can't say it enough where it's like you feel so confident there's a reason you think it's a good number and it's not a good number. Right. They're sucking you in and a couple of lines today. You know, we talked about it all day and they came through and, you know, we just were joking before he came on. We've got Arizona 49ers game, landed right on one. The spread was one and a half. Like the books, they. They're pretty locked in right now. They're making some really, really sharp lines. So I know people lose their minds on our Sunday morning show us agonizing over these number, but it matters. Like, these games are just so Tight. So close. I know there's a couple blowouts today, but a lot of these other games are just wild craziness down to the final snap. Even teams. Again, the Eagles, jets, like Chad was saying, they're both down by like 20 points. And they came back somehow covered both of them. So it's the best. That's why we love betting it. And you just, at the end of the day, like we say, don't get too emotional. That's the number. Like you said, I was going crazy, but I. I don't know what to say. The other than it was just football. You're like basically looking for what's happening. It's just. It's a really stupid game and weird bounces happen.
- [06:06]
D
All right, at the end of the show, we're gonna. We're gonna have our early leans. We're gonna answer questions from those watching. We'll respond to comments from those watching live. But first, let's get into it. Let's talk about. Let's start with Green Bay at Cleveland, because that was one. Cleveland was an eight and a half point dog. And literally on Tuesday we talked about this game and I said, of course we like Cleveland. My biggest concern is that Cleveland can lose this game 10 nothing. And its defense will have been brilliant and they will not have covered. And until there were 3 minutes and 45 seconds left, Cleveland was going to lose this game 10 nothing. And then they scored 13 points in the final 3 minutes and 45 seconds, all because of their defense. The last 13, the last 10 points, a pick interception of Jordan Love returned to the five. They score a touchdown field go on a blocked off of. Off of a blocked kick after a block kick to win the game. Here's my question for you. I wonder if you noticed this as well. The Browns, when they scored that field goal, I think they had like a first and goal from the one. And they had multiple plays in the red zone inside the 10, actually where they couldn't get the ball into the end zone. And there were penalties back and forth. But the last penalty that mattered was a chop block on the Browns that moved them from like the 1 to the 15 or 20 or something like that. And they couldn't ever get close enough to make it logical to go for it on fourth down. I think that saved our cover because if they. Otherwise they're going for it on fourth down from the one yard line and they're not getting it and we're still down 10 nothing. And who knows how that game ends? That's how I looked at that chop block penalty on the Browns that it actually did us a favor.
- [08:08]
E
Yeah, I mean, love, love the game, love the call. Really, really fun. Watch. And I mean, I'm sure it was really painful to everyone watching it, but my whole, my whole time, the whole time was just keep it close. All we need was three. That's my whole mentality the whole time. Even, even when it was like you said, doom and gloom. They're up 10. It's like they're still in this position. Like Green Bay's letting them hang around and now we talked this morning. There's always this one game in week three on a seven and a half point favorite that somehow loses outright. And it's. You look back and it's the stupidest way, one of the dumbest games of the year. That was a very stupid win. Right. It's. I don't know how many simulations everyone's computers runs, but I usually run 10,000 per game. That's a 5, 5 out of 10,000 chance of happening. Like, like you just said, the final three minutes, it was just all negative to Green Bay, really all positive. The Browns in any way you could think of. Like you said, they really couldn't pass the ball. And you know, I think it's junkins. Like they brought in the running back, the rookie kid, and a couple huge runs. It really kind of shifted their whole offense and kind of got Green Bay back on their heels because like we talked about going to the game, we knew Green Bay's defense is pretty dominant. He really just really relied on that front of the Browns against a banged up Green Bay O line. And it showed like it's. Green Bay was uncomfortable the whole game and yeah, that was. You look back on just an interesting line. I, I don't get why some books held it eight and a half. The seven half made sense, right? That was a good line, good value, but we needed that as betters. I just need to see a big dog win outright at home in a stupid way because that's, that's how it is in football. Like every week there's always going to be one of those random ones. And last week, me and Chad both got away with one. The Cowboys, Cardinals, the favorites usually don't win those. It just doesn't work that way. It did this week. Like we said, we had crazy bounces and yeah, this was a game I felt like you felt sick about in the morning that we had to do it. And I was like, I know we might be stepping in a butt this is what we do. We can't help ourselves. This is such a good number. And yeah, the. The rare opportunity that Joe Flacco puts up basically a zero, and we don't just cover. We went outright against what, the number two, number three team in the entire nfc. So pretty, pretty crazy winning cover.
- [10:31]
D
Yeah. Listen, I believe I said on Thursday, if you recall, if the Browns don't cover this game, I don't think we can ever bet a big underdog with a great defense at home again. It's over. Like that. That trend, that philosophy, that best of the number, closing line value, it's all over if the Browns don't at least cover this game. So I'm glad they allowed us to continue to bet against a philosophy that we wholly believe in. This defense is so good. And I was doing the math in my head. I just feel bad for Miles Garrett. I feel bad for Denzel Ward. I feel bad for the entire. For Jim Schwartz because they're three years away from being playoff contenders if they get a quarterback they think can make a difference, if that quarterback is not already on their roster. Because let's say Joe Flacco is the quarterback the rest of the year. Kevin Stefanski has kept himself from bringing in Dylan Gabriel when the offense is doing nothing. He's clearly saying, our defense is good enough. Someone's going to make a mistake. I don't want it to be us. We're going to continue to run the ball. We're going to find those opportunities, and we will find a way to manufacture points. But then what are they doing next year? Are they drafting a quarterback? If so, where are they getting a quarterback in the draft? That quarterback probably won't be very good in his first year. So then maybe he's good in his second year. So all of a sudden, the window for how good this defense is in these players, they're three years away. Like, it's such a waste of what could be an historically great defense.
- [12:15]
E
You just summed up the Browns franchise. Don't dwell on the Browns, Chad. Don't worry about. The Browns are about to do a quarterback. Don't even use any space in your brain for it, because it doesn't.
- [12:24]
D
I just feel bad.
- [12:25]
E
Baker, they had the guy.
- [12:27]
D
They did.
- [12:28]
E
He had a bad injury. They overreacted, let him walk. And that's. Football's just a brutal sport. You just. It's so hard not to overthink things. And. Yeah, I'm right there with you. They've wasted Miles Garrett's entire career, but he's happy he got his money. That's what, at the end of the day, that's what he wanted. That's why he stayed.
- [12:46]
D
They really did waste his entire career. They get with the bro. The Browns management and ownership are getting what they deserve because Baker Mayfield, he just wins. Okay, so they're getting what they deserve. They walked away from the guy that could have been the franchise changer for them. All right, the other game. Oh, my God. Rams at Eagles all week long, beginning last night or last. Last Sunday night a week ago. I love the Eagles. You loved the Eagles. I really believed that they just hadn't unleashed their offense, that they were being conservative, taking advantage of their strengths. I believe their defense was great. I believe that the Rams defense was overrated against a Texas team that we'll talk about. Cannot score, cannot move the ball. And against Titans team that isn't very good right now. I thought they would just dominate this game, and instead they got dominated until, you know, the second series of the third quarter. What the freak happened? Why did they all of a sudden change their game plan? And while, like. Do you think. Here's my question. Do you think that the change in the game plan was effective because of something the Rams had done, or should they have been doing this the whole time?
- [14:17]
E
Honestly, I think it was just Elaine Johnson injury, like, he went out.
- [14:21]
D
Yeah. That changed everything.
- [14:22]
E
Yeah, they had that first opening drive touchdown, and I think they punted or had three and outs their next, like, five possessions.
- [14:29]
D
And by the way, on those possessions, Lane Johnson's replacement got bulldozered and Jaylen Herz could not get the ball out of his hands and got sacked and was crushing.
- [14:40]
E
Missing open blocks and letting guys just tee off on Herz like it was a disaster. I know coaches coach speak is like, well, there's no real adjustments at halftime. This is the perfect example of. You saw the adjustments made to the offensive line, and whatever Stout did, they made it work. Like it's, you know, 26 to 7, what, 11 minutes, 12 minutes left in.
- [15:02]
D
The third off of a fumble on the opening drive.
- [15:05]
E
Yes.
- [15:05]
D
In the third quarter.
- [15:06]
E
It's dire and I try to beat the drum about it, but people don't want to hear it because I'm an Eagles fan. But Herzle, he doesn't look like Herbert. He'll never throw the ball like Herbert. But he has something that just a handful of guys have, which is this absurd confidence when they're down, like he was here, that he's still the best player on the best team and they can come back in any situation. And I won't lie, I thought it was a dead bet, bad bet.
- [15:36]
D
Like of course it was a dead bet.
- [15:39]
E
Everything is going wrong in that first half in the sense that I feel like every kick return. The Rams were at the 35, 40 where the Eagles were at their own 10, their own 15. They could not figure out the kickoff and they just could run it. I think they're averaging six or seven yards per play in that first half for the Eagles, I think had their lowest output in 10 years. I think they had 40 yards in the first half. So yeah, total, total luck getting the COVID in the win. But like we say all the time, you just play the number. It never made sense. Why was it three and a half? Anyone in their grandmom could have told you the Rams had looked better through two weeks and something was wrong with the Eagles offense and tread saying they've been playing possum, that they just. That's the style they play because they don't need to put the ball downfield. There's no point to it if they don't. If there's no reason to do it, there's no force to do it. Why would you do it in this game? Herz was forced to do it and you know, showed up in a big way because those, like we said, the Rams front four were teeing off on him. They were really dominating the offensive line. And yeah, that's. It sucks. We have to fade the Eagles next week. But like, man, that's, that's, that's. That's probably the best of all the teams we're going to talk about. That's the best night of any team because you know, that was a spot. Right. That Rams team came out and looked like they had been pissed off for six months in the off season thinking about beating up this team and rare, rare, rare time. That was it two. I think they had two blocked field goals. And like Chad said, the, the final block, Jordan Davis picks it up, runs, you know, was that 70 yards, Chad? And we get, we get the stupid backdoor cover.
- [17:24]
D
Yeah, I don't know that like it ended. The score ended where we thought it would. I don't know that we can take a ton of credit for the game as much as we can just take credit for the fact that we won in an unexpected fashion in a way that you almost never. I don't, I don't know that anyone's ever won a game off of a covered a game off of a blocked kick like that. I had actually stopped watching when they, you know, I had the four box on. I forgot what other games were on at that point. And for those who are watching live, apologies. Simon's having some camera issues, but you can still hear him the whole time. But I had moved on to the other games that were sort of at the end and I sort of just saw Jordan Davis running and I thought for a second, are they showing a replay of something that I missed during the game? And then I realized, holy crap, he's not going to fall down. This is actually live. And it's rare that you get someone having fun in football and doing the fun thing and just going for the full touchdown and. And then it ends up paying off for us. I don't know, man. That felt like a gift from the gods. It truly did feel like a gift from the gods. We can't take credit. We cannot in good conscience take credit for that game.
- [18:55]
E
I mean, again, I put in all the work. Why would I not take credit for Chad? All that matters is the final number. None of the bullshit like you think matters matters. All that matters is that final number. The winning ticket. Didn't Scooch teach you the right side.
- [19:08]
D
Is the winning side?
- [19:09]
E
The winning side.
- [19:09]
D
The right side is the winning side. Simon.
- [19:11]
E
So it's all. All the other. The luck. Everything we say none of it matters. Did you cash the ticket? Your reasoning was right if you did. So like we said, very lucky. Were we not unlucky in these losses? So it's. You get it, you take it away. It's. It's a brutal game. We bet Chad. That's why I love it.
- [19:30]
D
It is. It is full on insanity. But it is so much fun to be on that roller coaster during the day.
- [19:42]
A
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- [22:12]
D
The Jets 7 1/2 at Tampa Bay this was our throw it in. We can't really figure out the last game we want. Didn't love a lot of the other numbers. This was the best of the remaining numbers available. Looked great to start the Bucks helping us out in the beginning. They had 69 penalty yards and 42 total yards in the first quarter. Kind of like the Browns game for a little while. Like the defense was doing its best to to hang in there. But then Tyrod Taylor threw a pick and it went from 13 to 6 to 26. And I don't think I saw a play in the second half until all of a sudden I saw their kicker lining up for a field goal at 2620 and then saw Will McDonald leap over like Superman, leaps and bounds over the Bucks offensive line, block the kick and then run it back. And then I'm like, did we just get two covers from back to back blocked kicks, return from touchdowns? Yes, we did.
- [23:22]
E
Yeah. Another game where, you know pick six happens and back of your mind I go, you're dead. Like you just you throw pick six with a dog I slid on a backup quarterback like Tyra Taylor dead. So in my mind I was like, okay, we need a miracle. We know this Bucks team's back banged up. We have a whole second half that hopefully they got this hole. And it was a long dig and Baker just wore us out. Like, anytime they needed a big play, third and nine either with his legs, his arm, I mean, Mecca Buka is just out of this world. Talented, I know, so good. Mike Evans got banged up in the game. It's like brutal, but it's. The chemistry between a Mecca Buka and Baker is insane. Like, the fact that he's a rookie and he's playing at this high A level, like anytime they need to be playing third down, he kept stepping up. So, yeah, honestly, I felt more lucky on this one than I did so much on the Eagles, where it's like, Eagles have the pedigree. This one is like, oh, my God, this Jets team is terrible. Like having them on. I don't know if you watched that whole game. I did. And they all.
- [24:31]
D
I didn't watch a play in the second half.
- [24:33]
E
God bless you. So poorly coached. And God bless Aaron Glenn because, you know, he loves it. He's. He's a player's coach. But like you said, the penalties, all of it, they're just so bad, that jets team. And yeah, I. I can't believe they didn't win it outright. We'll take the COVID obviously, but yeah, the rare time we. We based better based on the number. All the numbers covering six and a half was all good. Seven and a half, obviously good. And yeah, we. We always, always go crazy. The morning on Sunday about one game about a number being so good and like you said, I bet it. But I really wasn't one of my bigger bets, like I. The Bears is a much bigger bet for me and I honestly felt better taking that number because of the situation they were heading into. That Bucks team that two comfort behind close wins would they do? Once again, I come from behind, close win. So I think we're starting to get a read here on this Bucs team and starting to manage how to bet this team going forward. So, yeah, good, good read, good number. And yeah, that I can't get over. I can't wait to go back and watch it. Baker, man, he was so incredible in this game. Just, he's quickly becoming like one of my top five favorite quarterbacks to watch. I just can't get over how much fun he is every game.
- [25:50]
D
He's so much fun. He's so Fucking ballsy.
- [25:54]
E
Yeah.
- [25:54]
D
You know, and he. I love his attitude after in the press conference, he's like, yeah, Steve Wilkes, he's the defensive coordinator, he cut me. Hassan Redick played for him. He got, played for the jets, he got cut. Like he. This was a revenge game to him. And players take it personally. And he was fun enough to acknowledge that he was taking it personally. Speaking of terrible games, terribly coached teams, train wreck situations, the Houston Texans were anywhere from half a point for us up to two and a half, which I did bet underdogs in this game. What is going on with that offense? C.J. strout cannot get the ball downfield. I think at one point he was averaging like 3 yards per pass attempt. It's truly astonishing how bad this team is. Either his receivers aren't getting separation or he's not getting any protection. That poor defense, it's another one where I watch that game and I'm like, the Texans are doing the best they can defensively, but they're not getting, they're not getting any help. And part of me like, at least the Browns, somewhere down the road they might have a chance to get a quarterback. C.J. stroud is the guy the Texans are invested in, so they got to fix it with him. And it looks awful right now.
- [27:25]
E
Yeah. And you see all these bad habits he's picked up because of all the hits and different things that have happened to him where he. Even when there's no footsteps coming, he thinks there is because he's been so beat up. So that's, that's the issue. They just gotta attack the offensive line. I mean, that game, we, we want to lost that game 100 different ways. Like you said, the fumble and Nico Collins, I couldn't believe it. Like the whole momentum had totally flipped. 1010 game, like you said, they're driving down, gonna walk in for a touchdown at some point. Like the, the, the Jags were gassed on their heels and fumble like you said, and big play was it. Btj I think I forget who got the big play for Brian Thomas. Yeah, like crazy. Had a horrible game. All these drops. And like we say, you give a chain a team another chance. Trevor Lawrence, who played horrible as well that whole game, put together a nice drive at the very end, got the seven in. You know, they let them score as well, but they were gonna get a three or at least a touchdown there. Like it was. That was the right call by Houston, let them score there. And yeah, like we said, going to the game, all these 02 teams, they're going to tell you something about themselves today and it didn't work out for us. Obviously Houston came and I'm. And that's what stinks, right? Like we, the Bears, Carolina, we loved all them for the same reasons. We just, you know, didn't, didn't go our way with this one and I, I definitely regret it. Where we both knew it, we talked about it, about it. I hate that we put it in just because once again I bet into it. So like Chad said, he was having the two and a half. I'd bet, I bet every number. I just. Texas is a dollar. I just thought they're the better team and I still think it. I just think, you know, like you said, they're poorly coached with all the penalties and the turnovers and yeah, just an awful game and unfortunately I have to bet the Texans again next week.
- [29:23]
D
Well, look that it was like they had a missed field goal to start the game. The like end of, end of the first, they're down a touchdown. They dropped a pass for a first down. Yeah, they got on first down. They got, they got sacked for 13 yards on second down. Then they ran a draw on third down. It's CJ getting picked in the fourth when they're driving to be in scoring range. And then that fumble by Nico Collins when they're at about the 20 with 3 minutes 45 seconds left. And then by the way, they still were able to get into position to score again. Yeah, but someone got to C.J. stroud. They hit his arm as he's throwing the ball and he gets picked on the two yard line. Like this team is a train wreck. I don't know. D', Ameco, Ryan's when he talks to this team, they all keep saying we're so close, we're so close. But they're not that close. They're just not. They're not good enough. They're not good enough anywhere. But they're offensive.
- [30:25]
E
They could be three, zero. That's what he's saying though. Like that's why football's so brutal where they have not played well like you said, but they've been in all these games. That could be 3, 0. And it's just, that's what it's a separate of the season. Right. They're having the season from hell Colts in the same team, their division. This is like the, the season you dream of as a fan. So it is, it is brutal. Like you said that I watched a lot of that game. They are a really bad team. This team Just I love d' Amico Ryan's. They do look poorly coached in a lot of aspects.
- [30:57]
D
The Jags are a really bad team too.
- [31:00]
E
Yeah.
- [31:01]
D
And they look poorly coached. And it. This is the second week in a row where it kind of looks like Liam Cohn and Trevor Lawrence can't stand each other. And Trevor Lawrence made so many bad plays in this game. He was 20 of 40 in this game. He. He's not the answer for them.
- [31:22]
E
It's crazy.
- [31:24]
D
You know what I mean? We've seen it now again and again and again. He is just not going to be the guy who turns them into a Super bowl caliber team. He's going to be a mediocre player who's been overpaid and they're going to have to walk away from within the next 24 months. That's what I think about Trevor Lawrence right now. Another guy that they might want to start thinking about walking away from. Bo Nicks, Denver plus two and a half at the LA Chargers. We lost that one. Sean Payton was leading the game 20 to 13. Late in the fourth, fourth and one from around the Chargers 30. He didn't go for it. He punted away. What is your take on what he should have done? I got a, I got. I have a strong opinion on this.
- [32:11]
E
I don't know. I can't judge. I'm like it's. I think he's nailed the top whatever he made. The mistake was this was. This is all Bo Nicks like the defense played out of their mind. The offensive weapons got open, schemed open. You know, really tough, hard fought game where you have all these open guys and he kept missing the throws and I always curse his name. I, I know people who bet on a wear as well where it's like you came back by 17 points, you had the ball again. You could have finished them off there and they didn't. They let him back in. I, I do have some very, you know, refs, they don't decide the games but there was like three or four drives that were kept alive by the refs on like key third and nines that were very ticky tack called two. Yeah. And that's, that's the tough part where it's like I get what they're doing here, right. They are fouls. Some of them were. But the defense giving, giving Herbert those extra lives and Bo Nicks missing open touchdowns, that really, really burned us. And yeah, respect that. That Chargers team, that was a bad spot. You saw it was a bad spot. Right. Herbert at one point I think he was like, you know, 120 yards passing and just no rhythm midway through that third quarter, towards the fourth. But once again, I've been getting rid of roses since that Kansas City game. Like, he's having these big drives and he had one today where he drove down the field. Keenan Allen, touchdown. Big throw, big possession in. Yeah, brutal, brutal beat. Like the three. Obviously people out there that had it. You're happy we get the push on that spot, but it's some of the two and a half. It's like, man, it was lined up right. It was 17, 13. It was like, okay, two field goal by Chargers here. We still get the COVID But yeah, the gambling gods, they had a, another way in mind.
- [34:03]
D
The Chargers had 10 points off of drives where they were kept alive because of penalties or advanced significantly. Yeah, because of penalties on the, on the Broncos. That to me is also bad coaching. Like the Broncos had, I think 10, 11, 12 penalties today. You could argue that they lost this game at least in part because the penalties kept the Chargers in the game. They lost the game last week because of a penalty. That's, that's bad coaching. That's bad discipline. They're not as good as their defense is. They're making stupid mistakes that are giving their opponents opportunities to keep the game alive. And when you have a quarterback like Bo Nix, you kind of can't do that. Like the way they're, the way they're, the way they're calling plays in this game. They're depending on the defense to make plays to keep the game close. And you can't make their mistakes if Bo Nix is the quarterback. Which goes back to my initial question. They had a fourth and one at the 30. Like you gotta go for that because if you make it, then you're just extending the time that you have the ball and making it harder for the Chargers to come back if you can't get another first down. But if you miss it, then you're in the same exact spot. The Chargers are close to the end zone. If you believe in your defense, believe in your defense that you'll hold into a field goal or that they're going to have to go forward on fourth down and try to score a touchdown. But they sort of were wishy washy, didn't believe. They just made the wrong call. To me, I haven't even looked at like the 4th and 1 analytics on it, but to me the logic is you believe in your defense, go for it. If you don't get it, you got to defend 30 yards instead of 60 yards. But you also bleed the clock if you do get just was a stupid idea. Bad coaching, bad discipline, bad quarterbacking, all of it.
- [36:08]
E
Yeah, no, it's tough call and obviously like you said, it was clear the wrong call because they lost the game.
- [36:14]
D
And the Chargers had nobody. They lost Najee Harris, they lost Makai Becton. Their offensive line was already injured. They had to replace the entire right side. This, this was handed to the Broncos and they handed it right back. All right, that's the 5, 3 and 2 on the day again. I'll review at the end of the show. Let's take a quick moment from our friends at Hard Rock. We'll come back, we'll take some questions, we'll talk about some of the leans and some of the games that we didn't put in today. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. Week three closes out Monday with Detroit versus Baltimore and this is where the Sharps separate from the squares. Let's check out more streaks from Hard Rock Bets stats hub for tomorrow night's game. You can find live odds to bet on all of these streaks in the Hard Rock Bet app. Baltimore has covered the spread in four straight games. Definitely hoping that one doesn't continue. Jameer Gibbs has recorded 30 plus receiving yards following a win in five straight games. Gibbs has also scored a touchdown in a game following a win five times in a row. Lemon Lamar Jackson has rushed for 58 yards in five consecutive week three games. DeAndre Hopkins has hit pay dirt four games in a row versus NFC opponents. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock bet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a $5 bet and if it hits, you get not only your winnings, but $150 in extra bonus bets. There's no promos every day, so if you're listening to this later, just open the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week Payable and bonus bets. Not a cash offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 and over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1-888- admit it in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9 with it gambling problem, call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois going New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia.
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C
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- [41:00]
D
I love the music that goes along. I'm thinking that yeah it's great. It's totally funny. Speaking of fun, we loved the Colts this week. Didn't like the number in the contest. We out thought ourselves on that. We just thought this was a much better team mistake on us. Again, I'll ask the question. The team we probably wouldn't have played was the jets and so I don't know that it would have made a difference. You like the Panthers? You mentioned them this morning. It wasn't enough to knock out Denver or Houston and not more than the jets because we actually had that conversation. Interesting game. I want to talk about that in a second. I did not watch more than a play or two of this game. When it popped on red zone, the Falcons had more yards, more plays, higher per play, more first downs. They had three turnovers leading to 14 points. I'm going to have to watch this game because somehow the Panthers also scored 16 other points and the Falcons couldn't do anything. Did you see any of that game?
- [42:09]
E
Yeah, I watched the whole game. 30, nothing. It's just a really dumb, really dumb game where everything went wrong for Atlanta. But also my fear of Penix came true. Of him being moved off his spot, not being accurate, you know, off time with his receivers. And he's, it's like his true rookie year, right? He played what, three, four games last year in the season. Like I, I just, that's why I might as well hold down on this Falcons team. Like he's going to have growing pains, panic. So just a game like I said, 10, 000 simulations, that's another one that happens maybe 50 times. Like just Panthers are not a dominant team defensively, especially with injuries. They had and they got a shut out. Like they dominated even the red zone. They were really good and stout and like you said, the turnovers. Yeah, got it. Got to be excited if you're a Panthers fan because it's two weeks now that Bryce has made the throws and you know, Arizona, I was a little skeptic of them. Like that was the only reason, honestly I didn't bang the table for us with this Panther scene. Was that, was that really Bryce getting back to what he was last year against Arizona or is that just because her secondary was so banged up and you know, you saw it today, he's making big time throws and situations and yeah, bad miss by us on them and the Colts and I honestly again, if you go back and listen, I said to me the Texans were our fifth one. Like that was the one I had on the edge and I just, you know, got scared off by how much public love there was obviously and how much the line had moved to that Colts team. But that was probably more telling that we should have been more confident in it because that was just all late professional money moving that all the way up to six before kickoff. And yeah, the Panthers, we joked, I think it was like the third highest bet side of the week for most sportsbooks. Atlanta, that number went from six to five and a half to four and a half by kickoff. So once again, the professionals had a really good week, and they were all over the Trends. These. Those 02 teams were really undervalued, and they all pretty much bounced back, except obviously a couple of the ones we picked.
- [44:22]
D
Yeah, somehow that always seems to happen.
- [44:27]
E
I hate it.
- [44:28]
D
Pretty amazing. It's. It's so freaking hard.
- [44:31]
E
That's like. That's the hardest part people don't get that aspect of is that we know many people listen. That's obviously in the back of our minds when we talk on Sunday morning. And it's hard not to not want to look like an idiot when everything you say is recorded and printed. So not that you had a little bit of deer head of lights this morning, but I could tell you were like, jesus, take the wheel with me this morning. You're like, I knew you had sides you liked, but you were like, I'm not that confident. I mean, even, you know, joking around with you about your love for the Bengals. Thank God you didn't bring them up this morning.
- [44:59]
D
Oh, no.
- [45:00]
E
There's games like that where it's like, it was a weird week. We're just trying to survive. There's a weeks go on. We'll get better data. But we wanted the four and one. It was right there. Oh, and five was right there as well. So I'll take a three and two week and just survive and advance totally.
- [45:16]
D
Three and two every single week. I'd be perfectly happy. We both wisely talked ourselves out of the Patriots because we just don't like Drake May, who had two of the team's five turnovers. The Steelers still don't look very good. Not looking for places to back them throughout the year. Look, we like the Bears all week. They were our brass balls. They were our. They were favorites in our contest. Dogs. As of this morning, that spooked us. I know you're in other contests. You ended up playing the Bears as favorites. You may be looking at the T shirt I'm wearing right now. I wore it all day. I didn't show it this morning because I didn't want to sort of tempt the gods. But I will say that I wore it all afternoon and felt really, really good about it.
- [46:03]
E
And football. Just really stupid. Bears. I couldn't believe how well that game went for them and everything. Just felt like it went right where Caleb played so well. The defense with all these backups, the guys didn't have talent, but they were hitting so hard. Yeah, anytime the Cowboys touched the ball, these backups punished them. It was incredible. But that's why you love 02 teams. They're just so desperate. They play with such an anger and hungry and yeah, like I told Chad, I, I took them at minus one and a half and a couple other contests. I didn't let the number scare me off. I was just like, this number should be three. I'm not gonna overthink it. This is such a bad spot for this Cowboys team after a miracle win the week before. And you know, people want to give Caleb a hard time. He did exactly what you're supposed to do to a bad defense. Like that's he ran the offense. He didn't try to improv, scramble around, do all this crazy stuff he did every now and then. But he mostly played in the offense and I feel like he's going to start seeing how Ben's just going to scheme guys open and so I know we got to keep it moving. I get the next week games but yeah, the Bears going forward. There's things to be excited about and you can't say that. Like you said, you haven't been able to say that in a while as a Bears fan. So huge win that he can take a breather. Great cover and yeah, wish we had in the contest.
- [47:25]
D
Look, we talked about it this morning about expectations for the Bears. Like I was so excited that they were competent in a two minute drill to end the first half. I texted my son who's at Maryland and I'm like, I'm so glad you were able to see that because that, it's like some, some parents might feel good if their kids see their favorite teams that they share win a title. I'm just happy when he sees confident professional football. We finally got it. Look, we could have been 1 and 4 today. We could have been 05 today. Yeah, if we had, I'd say we need couples counseling. Instead, I'll say we had a vigorous and healthy conversation that led to very positive outcomes. Simon says Denver two and a half from last week. Chad loves love. We got the Chiefs minus five and a half tonight. Brass balls was the Bears rocking a hard plays was the Texans. That was clearly a tough one. Sharp versus square. I had the Eagles, you had the Texans. All right, early liens, couple games that stood out to me but I want to get some of yours too. We just talked about Atlanta. I noticed Washington on the road at Atlanta at +3. I'm going to tell you Right now I already bet the Falcons at plus three. My theory is if Jaden Daniel is playing, this number's going up and I'm happy to bet the Falcons again. But if not, then the wise guys are coming in on the Falcons at plus three. I think this team is not as bad as we saw today in certain parts of the game. The offense clearly was effective statistically. So I bet the Falcons a plus three.
- [49:15]
E
Yeah. Donate it, Elena. At home plus three. Not, not a bad bet. But I'm, I'm not gonna do anything yet until I know what's up. Daniels, because this number could move three or four points.
- [49:29]
D
Arizona short home favorite Thursday night against Seattle. I kind of lean Arizona in this game.
- [49:43]
E
Yeah, another interesting opening number. I mean, you know, one and a half.
- [49:48]
D
It opened one and a half.
- [49:49]
E
Yeah, I, I don't go too hard early on the Thursday night games because I need to see the injury report because it's a short week. But your idea of selling on Seattle I think is warranted. Right? This is probably a good time to sell it. Or is this a well oiled machine playing against an Arizona team that Kyler leaves so many plays on the field and they should have won that game eight different ways and he just couldn't get it done. So I got an immediate, no immediate rush to bet that one. Either.
- [50:21]
D
Question from the audience. This one from I think Kellen Laws. Jets plus two and a half. Jets plus two and a half. Who are they playing?
- [50:35]
E
Miami Monday night? Yeah, they're at Miami.
- [50:38]
D
Yeah.
- [50:39]
E
You are a sicko, my friend. I will again. I guess I'll take Miami there early, but I get where he's coming from. That's, that's, that's an interesting opening line because they're actually, they're looking for Miami money, obviously. Open that at minus two and a half. So again, another game, I, I got no read on yet, but I, I lean towards the Dolphins. I just, I can't get over how bad that jets team is. And you can pass, you can pass against this jets defense. I saw Sauce got banged up in the game too. So yeah, I'm leaning honestly towards Miami. I think they showed a little something that Buffalo's game, which, that could be a trap itself, being sucked in on Miami teams. One good game this year.
- [51:19]
D
I got to put on my glasses because Vitalis is asking about Buffalo, which opened at 15 and a half and is now up to 16 and a half against the New Orleans Saints.
- [51:34]
E
I know it's like you're. We're supposed to bet The Bills, like I, I said, I've done any of these numbers done yet.
- [51:40]
D
Yeah.
- [51:41]
E
I can easily see my model having this at 17 and a half because I'm weighted very heavily towards these home teams, these big favorites with really good quarterbacks against bad teams. And we saw last week with the Browns, like the Browns defense can hold up for a while, but if you make, if your back quarterback makes one mistake, all of a sudden that seven point lead the good team has, it turns into a 14, 21 point. So me and Chad already know it's probably gonna be our survivor pick. So I'll probably end up bending as well. Like it just doesn't get much easier than the Bills at home as this big of a favor. I'll look at their, look at their schedule. But that's, that's a nice, nice matchup this week for this Bills team against the Saints team that, you know, the first two games that might have just been a mirage. They actually might be by far the worst team in football.
- [52:30]
D
All right, who am I missing? Your point of view?
- [52:33]
E
Tampa's Plus 3, right? You can get the books Plus 3 right now at Hard Rock. They're playing the Eagles at home next week. Tampa historically has owned this Eagles team. I can't believe the line is this short, but that's so much respect to big. I thought this would be Eagles minus four, four and a half after that win. Where you know Baker's def. Offensive line, that's a real issue. He took a lot of hits and made a lot of things happen. And the Eagles are a much more athletic offensive line or defensive line than that team he just faced. But I'll take the early number plus three because I just. That just seems like a pros line. But the pros will bet down and yeah, I'm once again shocked. I'm looking at a couple books here. Already moved to two and a half. So looks like the early money. Yeah. Is coming in on that book side. And another game that jumped out to me. Chad. Chad just nailed it. Pittsburgh didn't look very good today, did they, Chad?
- [53:31]
D
They did not. Simon.
- [53:33]
E
They are a home dog against Carson Wentz in the Minnesota Vikings right now they are plus one and a half.
- [53:39]
D
Oh yeah. Yeah.
- [53:41]
E
So I'm gonna grab that now. Tomlin home dog against the backup quarterback. And was that the Vikings being that great of a team or just every little thing went wrong for that Bengals team that should have known to bet against them? Like that whole backup quarterback heart pounding win at the end of a game, next game Gotta fade him. Like it just never works out. Back to back, that game. So just an instant line that jumped out to me. They're making Steelers a home dog, but that's gonna be very public and chalk. I think everyone else is gonna have the same thoughts as me. One last one. Cowboys just got embarrassed. You don't have to rush to bet it. Just in case there's a plus sixes out there grabbing. Now they're at home. Believe it might be the Sunday night game against Green Bay. I know. I don't want to keep fading Green Bay either, especially after that loss. But this will be. It's just gonna be like the Chiefs tonight. It's gonna be every teaser, every bit. Oh, it's in Dublin. Oh, the Steelers are in Dublin against the Vikings.
- [54:48]
D
Oh, that changes it.
- [54:50]
E
God bless you, Barbara, our amazing producer. That's. Yeah, that makes way more sense because I was like Steelers at home to Carson. Okay. God damn it. I literally better while we're talking about it too.
- [55:03]
D
Buy out, cash out.
- [55:04]
E
But I have my glasses, so I cannot. I saw the fine print, but I just. It's whatever, right? You know who reads the fine print? Oh, man. That makes sense. So, yeah, that's. I know. We gotta get out of here. Just early reads. Dallas at home. Big dog against Green Bay. And one last one. Vegas at home dog against the Bears. They're plus one and a half right now against this Bears team. No one. No one believes in this Raiders team. They just got rolled by Mariota.
- [55:34]
D
Yeah.
- [55:35]
E
So buy low. This is easily. I'm already gonna. I'm guessing my model have to say minus two and a half, maybe minus three Raiders. Just looking at it right now, I at least make the Raiders a pick. Personally, it's like they might be worse than the Bears, but they're not that much worse. They're not a one and a half point dog at home to this Bears team. So I know it's painful to zag on this bear scene. I just love them so much today. But it's the business we're in, Chad. I got to do it.
- [56:01]
D
Stephen Martinez last week asked about the Browns and we were on the Browns. This week he's asking about the Colts and Rams. Colts are four and a half point dogs at the Rams.
- [56:15]
E
Are we the suckers? How do you not take the Colts there? So I have to be on the Rams. What is that line? Four and a half. Oh, my God. So if you want to make the early bet, go with the public, go with the pros. I am assured they'll hit this early. Four and a half. Crazy opening line for that. Just the col. The books are saying to the Colts again we don't believe in you. Prove it again like they did with Tennessee this week. So yeah, I like. Great call by him. I can't wait to see how this line moves. When I first saw it, I said I'm the sucker. I right away went to that Colts plus four and a half when me and Chad jumped on this call. But I'm not betting it. I'm gonna try to be patient with that one because I already can tell I'm probably gonna like the Ram side. It's just going to be that's got to be the biggest public dog of the upcoming week. That Colts team, they're just been great. Three zero against the spread. Three zero straight up just dominant.
- [57:02]
D
All right, we're going to get out of here. Everyone can go watch the Chiefs Giants for the game tonight. I am on the Chiefs -5 and a half seven. Simon has generally been with me, but more likely he is heavily invested in the Chiefs money line above all else in that game. Accurate?
- [57:24]
E
Yeah, I bet the five and a half with you like we better last Sunday and I bet it during the week but financially very invested heavily in the Chiefs just winning outright.
- [57:32]
D
All right, final review of our games for anybody who joined late and did not get to hear off the top three and two this week for Simon and I. Eagles minus three and a half jets plus seven and a half Browns plus eight and a half. We had the Texans plus a half and we had the Broncos plus two and a half. This has been Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bet, part of the Volume Podcast Network. We will be back with our next Sharper Square on Tuesday to go over the entire NFL slate. Watch or listen on YouTube @Sharpersquared like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods. Subscrate, subscribe Rate Review Leave us 5 stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback as it gets. Until next time. Love you.
- [58:25]
A
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B
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- [60:27]
C
Off terms apply over 300 channels, zero bills. That's TiVo plus curated movies, new series and sports highlights. No credit card, no logins, just TV that gets straight to the good stuff. Grab the remote, press play and start watching TiVo plus free binge worthy always on. Check us out@tivo.com.