Sharp or Square – NFL Week 3 Reaction

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: September 22, 2025
Episode Title: NFL Week 3 Reaction: Rams-Eagles, Packers-Browns, Cowboys-Bears + Early Week 4 Leans

Episode Overview

Chad Millman and professional sports bettor Simon Hunter break down the wild outcomes of NFL Week 3 from a betting perspective. The episode is a rollercoaster of emotions, with both celebrating miraculous covers and lamenting unlucky beats. They offer deep dives into major games—including Rams-Eagles, Packers-Browns, Cowboys-Bears, and more—drawing lessons for bettors and previewing early lines for Week 4. True to the show’s style, the conversation is candid, irreverent, and laced with sharp insights into NFL betting psychology.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Chaos of NFL Betting: Week 3 Recap

• Emotional Whiplash: Both hosts experienced a “miraculous” betting day, finishing 3-2, but teetering between disaster and triumph, often on the slimmest of margins.
  • Chad: "The script writers for the NFL are on fire right now. Just give them the freaking Emmy because, like, insane, insane three and two day for us…" (03:13)
• Football’s Unpredictability: Simon reminds listeners that NFL outcomes are inherently chaotic, advocating emotional detachment until the final whistle.
  • Simon: "It's 60 minutes... I never get too high or too low until the final whistle is blown because football is... a really stupid game played with a weirdly shaped ball and it makes no sense." (04:12)

2. Game Breakdowns & Betting Reflections

Packers at Browns (Browns +8.5, Browns win outright)

• Miracle Finish: Browns score 13 points in the last 3:45, aided by key turnovers and fortuitous penalties.
  • Chad: "That chop block penalty on the Browns actually did us a favor…otherwise they're going for it on fourth down from the one-yard line…” (07:30)
  • Simon: "That's a 5 out of 10,000 chance of happening, like…the final three minutes, it was just all negative to Green Bay, really all positive to the Browns…" (08:07)
• Big Picture on Browns: Frustration with great defense being "wasted" due to quarterback issues.
  • Chad: "It's such a waste of what could be an historically great defense." (11:56)
  • Simon: "Don't dwell on the Browns, Chad. Don't even use any space in your brain for it." (12:15)

Rams at Eagles (Eagles -3.5, Eagles cover via late blocked kick TD)

• Offensive Line Woes & Adjustments: Lane Johnson's injury turned the game until the Eagles adjusted at halftime.
  • Simon: "This is the perfect example of…you saw the adjustments made to the offensive line, and whatever Stout did, they made it work." (14:39)
• Herz's Confidence: Simon lauds Jaylen Herz’s unshakable confidence leading the comeback.
  • "He has something…this absurd confidence when they're down, like he was here, that he's still the best player on the best team…" (15:06)
• Unlikely Cover: A blocked kick returned by Jordan Davis delivers the cover—a play both hosts call a "gift from the gods."
  • Chad: "I don't know that anyone's ever…covered a game off of a blocked kick like that." (17:23)

Jets at Buccaneers (Jets +7.5, Win via blocked kick)

• Bizarre Finish: Jets cover thanks to a blocked field goal, returned for a TD, echoing the Browns' miracle.
  • Chad: "Did we just get two covers from back-to-back blocked kicks, return for touchdowns? Yes, we did." (23:13)
• Jets’ Incompetence: Simon found the Jets nearly unwatchable but relishes the lucky outcome.
  • Simon: "I felt more lucky on this one than I did…on the Eagles…this Jets team is terrible." (24:30)
• Emergence of Baker Mayfield: Both hosts praise Baker’s clutch play and attitude.
  • Chad: "He's so much fun. He's so Fucking ballsy." (25:49)

Texans Game (Texans +0.5, Disastrous Loss)

• Texans’ Offensive Dysfunction: C.J. Stroud’s struggles and offensive line woes lead to a painful string of missed opportunities.
  • Chad: "It's truly astonishing how bad this team is." (25:54)
• Bad Habits: Simon notes Stroud is "hearing footsteps" even when not pressured, due to his battered O-line.
  • Simon: "He's picked up all these bad habits…he thinks there is [pressure] because he's been so beat up." (27:25)
• Betting Frustration: Simon regrets backing the Texans, recognizing coaching and discipline are lacking.

Broncos at Chargers (Broncos +2.5, Loss)

• Discipline Issues: Excessive Broncos penalties keep Chargers alive, prompting questions about coaching.
  • Chad: “They lost the game last week because of a penalty. That's bad coaching. That's bad discipline." (34:02)
• Missed Aggression: Chad argues Sean Payton should have gone for a 4th and 1, rather than punting—would’ve leveraged their defensive strength.

Other Games & Thoughts

• Panthers Shut Out Falcons: Rare and unexpected; rookie Penix’s growing pains on display.
• Bears Upset Cowboys: Both hosts thrilled with Justin Fields' calm, the defense’s physicality, and young talent.
  • Simon: "There's things to be excited about…and you can't say that…in a while as a Bears fan." (46:52)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the wild luck required in NFL betting:

  • "I don't know that anyone's ever…covered a game off of a blocked kick like that." – Chad (17:23)
  • "The right side is the winning side." – Chad & Simon (19:07)

• On Browns' defensive window:

  • "It's such a waste of what could be an historically great defense." – Chad (11:56)
  • "Don't even use any space in your brain for it…[the Browns]," – Simon (12:15)

• Simon’s NFL betting mantra:

  • "All the other…the luck, everything we say…none of it matters. Did you cash the ticket? Your reasoning was right if you did." (19:11)

• On Bears fans’ low expectations:

  • "Some parents might feel good if their kids see their favorite teams that they share win a title. I'm just happy when he sees confident professional football." – Chad (47:24)

Early Week 4 Leans & Betting Angles (Timestamps 48:00-56:00)

• Falcons +3 vs. Washington:

  • Chad already betting ATL +3, expects number to move if Jayden Daniels is in.
  • Simon holding for more news on Daniels’ status.

• Cards -1.5 (Thursday) vs. Seahawks:

  • Both see value in selling Seattle, though want more info on injuries.

• Jets +2.5 at Dolphins:

  • Simon is bearish on the Jets, would lean Miami.

• Bills -16.5 vs. Saints:

  • Simon expects Bills to be a “survivor” pick and probably worth laying the points, as Saints are “by far the worst team in football.”

• Eagles at Buccaneers (+3):

  • Simon: “I’ll take the early number +3…Already moved to 2.5 at some books, so early sharps on Bucs.”

• Steelers vs. Vikings (@ Dublin; Steelers +1.5):

  • Simon excited about Tomlin as a dog but realizes it's in Dublin, not Pittsburgh—"God bless you, Barbara [producer], for catching that!"

• Cowboys at Packers, Raiders at Bears:

  • Simon suggests buying low on the Raiders at home vs. Chicago, expects market overreaction.

• Colts +4.5 at Rams:

  • Both hosts shocked by the early line and expect money on the Colts.

Closing Review (57:32–end)

• Simon and Chad end with a recap of their official picks for the week:
  • Eagles -3.5 ✅
  • Jets +7.5 ✅
  • Browns +8.5 ✅
  • Texans +0.5 ❌
  • Broncos +2.5 ❌
• 3-2 record for the week—emphasis on survival early in the NFL season.

Structure & Style

• Tone: Candid, irreverent, betting-wise, with emphasis on process over results.
• Recurring Theme: The razor-thin, often random margins between joy and disaster in NFL betting.
• Emotion & Community: Both hosts share their personal highs/lows and foster a sense of community among bettors who live through these wild swings.

Listen If You Want:

• To understand the emotional (and mathematical) swings of betting NFL sides.
• Weekly guidance on what’s “sharp” or “square” (i.e., pros vs. public).
• Early actionable advice for next week’s NFL betting.

Sharp or Square returns Tuesday for a full NFL preview.