Sharp or Square – NFL Week 4 Reactions + Early Week 5 Leans

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: September 29, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode, betting expert Chad Millman and professional gambler Simon Hunter break down their week 4 NFL betting results, dissect their sharp and square calls, and offer initial leans for week 5 matchups including Giants-Saints, Ravens-Chiefs, Browns-Lions, and more. They discuss the rollercoaster nature of their picks, lament some bad beats, and celebrate lucky covers. Full of actionable insights, honest self-assessment, and friendly ribbing, the episode guides listeners through the highs and lows of professional NFL betting.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Week 4 Recap – Bets & Results

• The duo went 3-2 for the week, putting them at 12-8 on the year.
  • Chad: “We ended up three and two in the day again today with wackiness, with insanity, with miracles.” (03:04)
  • Simon: “60% any week—you can quit your day job, you've done it. So I'll take it anytime we go three and two.” (04:32)

Chargers vs. Giants

• The Chargers, a chalk favorite, let Chad down when Jackson Dart’s running and the Giants’ pass rush proved decisive. Joe Alt’s injury and dropped passes doomed LA.
• Chad assumed blame: “I wanted to blame you but I couldn't because it was all my fault.” (06:51)
• Simon: “There was never going to be a way for them to get that cover, even in my wildest dreams.” (07:13)
• Giants’ QB Jackson Dart looked limited as a passer; his legs made up most of the difference. Malik Neighbors’ likely torn ACL makes the Giants’ future murky.

Eagles vs. Buccaneers

• The Bucs (+3.5) started poorly after a blocked punt TD for Philly.
• “You get what you bet when you bet with Baker,” said Chad, on Mayfield’s “wild ride” tendencies, even in losses. (11:04)
• Simon lamented his “bad read,” noting, “the end zone pick, though, inexcusable.” (11:04)
• Both noted Tampa’s defensive strength in the run and weighed their value in next week’s matchup with Seattle.

Lions vs. Browns

• Chad’s “brass balls” pick, Lions (-9), cruised to the cover despite a Goff interception and the Browns’ early competence.
• Simon gave credit: “Joe Flacco…bailed us out...they have the better unit...those are always the scary games because when you take those big numbers...these guys are pros too.” (13:38)
• Kalif Raymond’s pivotal punt return iced the cover. Injuries at cornerback (Terry Arnold, DJ Reed) might hurt Detroit moving forward.

Rams vs. Colts

• Rams (-3.5) was a contentious, last-minute pick; the call paid off with a little luck.
• Chad broke down the sequence where Colts WR Adonai Mitchell cost his team “14 points” between a fumble and penalty. (23:46)
• Both agreed the Colts “should have gotten rolled,” but their defense made it a game.
• Simon: “If Stafford’s healthy...it’s a really talented Rams team, one of the best in all football.” (25:38)
• “Division, seventh seed, still on the table for me for this Colts team.” (27:19)

Raiders vs. Bears

• Raiders (+1.5) took advantage of Bears' turnovers and Geno Smith’s bad day (three interceptions).
• Simon: “These are my favorite type of games between two gross teams but with offenses that can move the ball...” (28:37)
• Chad highlighted how porous the Raiders’ offensive line was, despite Aston Gentry’s big day: “this O-line is really a problem for them.” (31:32)

2. Around the League – Notable Teams and Trends

Jacksonville Jaguars & San Francisco 49ers

• Chad raised chat questions: “Are the Jags legit?” Simon: “Playing well...the only real weakness is Trevor Lawrence.” (35:31)
• Both concerned about the 49ers’ recent injury worries and Brock Purdy's costly turnovers.

Tennessee Titans

• Both agreed the Titans are “totally dead,” with Chad citing their abysmal ATS (against the spread) record: “Three and nineteen against the spread...including two and fifteen last year.” (37:40)
• Simon: “Tennessee...by far the worst team in football.” (38:32)

Best Team in the NFL?

• Chad: “How are the Eagles not the best team in the NFL right now?” (40:56)
• Simon debated the #2 spot, offering that the Rams could be the second-best team given health, tough schedule, and resilience.
• Lions also in the conversation as most complete and powerful, especially after Week 4.

3. Early Week 5 Betting Leans & Line Movement Analysis

• Giants (-2) at Saints: Chad wary of backing Jackson Dart as a road favorite, Simon eager to grab Saints +2.5 or +3.

  • Simon: “That stands for like a no brainer, taking the plus two and a half...hoping they can get the plus three.” (45:00)

• Chiefs (-2.5) at Jaguars: Noted significant line movement as early Jags money came in. Both see value depending on whether the line is above or below a field goal.

  • Simon: “Two and a half, I could be a Chiefs guy. That feels like a Chiefs number here. So I'll be patient.” (46:10)

• Titans (+8.5) at Cardinals: Both leaning Cardinals, not trusting Tennessee even with a big number.

  • Chad: “Do we even want to tempt ourselves with Tennessee as an eight and a half point road underdog against Arizona…?” (47:03)
  • Simon: “I'm leaning towards the Cardinals even though they're attempting me, trying to suck me on this Tennessee line.” (47:10)

• Bucs (+2.5) at Seahawks: Chad and Simon like Tampa as the undervalued road dog.

• Colts at Raiders: Simon “drinking the Kool Aid” on Colts and expects line to move above 7.

4. Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On betting regret:

  • Chad: “I wanted to blame you but I couldn't because it was all my fault.” (06:51)
  • Simon: “You get what you bet when you bet with Baker.” (11:04)

• On the ups & downs:

  • Simon: “Back to back, three to two weeks. What are we at, 12 and 8 now? ...It's a grind to get there.” (05:31)

• On gross games:

  • Simon: “These are my favorite type of games between two gross teams but with offenses that can move the ball.” (28:37)

• On NFL power rankings:

  • Chad: “How are the Eagles not the best team in the NFL right now?” (40:56)
  • Simon: “If Stafford’s healthy...that defense, that front seven, really good, really well coached.” (25:38)

• On Titans futility:

  • Simon: “Tennessee...by far the worst team of football.” (38:32)
  • Chad: “Three and nineteen against the spread." (37:40)

5. Timestamps for Key Segments

• Week 4 intro and record: 03:04–05:31
• Chargers-Giants breakdown: 05:31–09:42
• Eagles-Bucs insight: 09:42–12:25
• Lions-Browns analysis: 12:25–17:01
• Rams-Colts deep dive: 21:06–27:44
• Raiders-Bears ugly fest: 27:44–31:52
• Jags-49ers, team tiers: 35:31–44:08
• Tennessee Titans woes: 37:15–40:14
• Best/worst teams debates: 40:14–44:08
• Early Week 5 leans: 45:00–50:54

Closing Thoughts

Chad and Simon’s Week 4 breakdown reflects the tough judgment calls, market dynamics, and psychological battles that accompany NFL betting. Their honest admissions of where they misread games and why, balanced with data-centered process and savvy lookahead takes, make this a must-listen for bettors looking to learn and improve. Listeners got a blend of sharp analysis on week 5 lines and stories of lucky bounces and exasperating beats—plus guidance on where early value may lie.