Sharp or Square Podcast Summary

NFL Week 5 Bets: Cowboys-Jets, Broncos-Eagles, Pats-Bills, Giants-Saints & More

Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: September 30, 2025
Main Theme:
This episode is a deep dive into the NFL Week 5 betting slate, where betting expert Chad Millman and professional sports gambler Simon Hunter scrutinize matchups, dissect line movement, and tag bets as “sharp” (wiseguy-approved, professional) or “square” (public, generally losing side). They focus on finding value, evaluating ugly underdogs, analyzing injury impacts, and reading where sharp money is flowing.

Table of Contents

1. Season Recap & Mindset
2. Game-by-Game Breakdown (with Timestamps)
   1. Rams vs. 49ers (TNF) (07:23)
   2. Browns vs. Vikings (London Game) (11:54)
   3. Dolphins at Panthers (18:56)
   4. Raiders at Colts (22:16)
   5. Texans at Ravens (28:38)
   6. Broncos at Eagles (36:43)
   7. Giants at Saints (42:53)
   8. Cowboys at Jets (47:19)
   9. Titans at Cardinals (54:20)
   10. Bucs at Seahawks (57:31)
   11. Commanders at Chargers (62:54)
   12. Lions at Bengals (65:56)
3. Primetime Spotlight → SNF & MNF
   1. Patriots at Bills (75:32)
   2. Chiefs at Jaguars (80:58)
4. Quote Highlights
5. Key Takeaways and Trending Strategies

1. Season Recap & Mindset <a name="season-recap"></a>

• Hosts report a strong start: 12–8 record, 60% through the first month.
• Audience Reminder: Professional approach embraces unpleasant picks when value emerges.
• Simon: “We are entering that part of the season where the really, really, really bad teams are the ones that start lighting up as teams that we have to bet. So we're going to have some of those gross conversations today.” (05:54)
• Strategy focus: Continue to trust numbers over narratives—both recall that last year public favorites often steamrolled, but so far in 2025, “ugly” dogs have value.

2. Game-by-Game Breakdown (with Timestamps) <a name="breakdown"></a>

Rams vs. 49ers (TNF)

[07:23 – 11:54]

• Context: Brock Purdy injury, possibly Mac Jones (also hurt) at QB for San Francisco. Line moved from -3 to -5.5.
• Simon: “My whole plan was to be on the 49ers here… but with Purdy out, this will be in every parlay, all the teasers, everything’s gonna be tied to this Rams team. … If we're thinking Purdy's out, five, five and a half, I'll take it for now.”
• Chad: “How is it only five and a half? ... Adrian Martinez would be third string. It just doesn’t seem like enough of a move.”
• Verdict: Lean Rams, especially if the line stays below 6, but question if the market adjusted enough for the SF QB downgrade.

Browns vs. Vikings (London Game)

[11:54 – 16:32]

• Line: Opened MIN -5.5, now -3.5
• Quarterback questions: Flacco ("truly horrendous") vs. possibly rookie Dylan Gabriel.
• Simon: “My first thought was, aren’t we going to want to fade this Browns team? ... but some very, very smart professional money has moved this number. … Everyone’s just totally out on that Vikings team. There might be value on this Vikings team, but we have to wait for it to get to three, in my opinion.”
• Chad: Looking to play the Vikings once the line drops further.
• Verdict: Not excited to back Browns; monitoring for a better Vikings number.

Dolphins at Panthers

[18:56 – 22:16]

• Movement: Panthers flip from dog to favorite (-1.5)
• Simon: “It’s definitely the sharp side, Carolina. … I think your initial read of this being a Panther spot is true. This is almost my Simon says pick, but ... I want something grosser than this one.”
• Chad: “Historically, this is where we should back Carolina, especially off a primetime win for Dolphins and a blowout loss for Carolina. … But line flips like this make me nervous.”
• Verdict: Panthers are the pro side, but timing and number matter; both cautious.

Raiders at Colts

[22:16 – 26:03]

• Line: Colts -6.5 (opened 5.5, moved as high as 7 back down)
• Simon: “This was going to be one of the more public spots for this Colts team...Professional bettors like the Raiders at +7...I'm already on the Colts side, but I want to see what more the professionals do with this line.”
• Chad: Threading needle—don’t automatically fade favorites, as favorites are performing against truly bad teams.
• Verdict: Leaning Colts, but wary of pro money on Raiders.

Texans at Ravens

[28:38 – 33:33]

• Drastic Move: Ravens -9 (Monday morning) → -3.5 (post Lamar Jackson injury news)
• Simon (Simon Says Pick): “Grab the three and a half right now ... Even if Lamar does play, something is wrong here ... I think this is an amazing spot for Houston.”
• Chad: “Your urgency inspired me to make the bet while you were talking.” (32:29)
• Key stat: Major professional money causing huge line drop.
• Verdict: Texans +3.5 is a must-bet; urgency to move before further news drops the line.

Broncos at Eagles

[36:43 – 42:11]

• Line: Eagles -4.5, fluctuating between 3.5 and 5.5
• Simon: “This is a Broncos number ... but man, as an Eagles fan, I cannot be bitter ... It's just, something's not right with them yet.”
• Chad: Concern: Denver’s pass rush is dependent on the blitz, which won’t bother Hurts.
• Verdict: Both lean Broncos (+4.5) but sense plenty of red flags for both sides.

Giants at Saints

[42:53 – 46:41]

• Wild line swing: Giants +2 → -2 → Saints -1.5/2
• Simon: “This is either Russell Wilson is playing, or really, really, really respected money is hammering the Saints ... If you want to go Saints now, you can. If Giants get to +2.5, that gets interesting ... I’m already betting the Saints.”
• Chad: The line move was so fast he “missed it” despite flagging it Sunday night; feels like a lost cause unless the number comes back.
• Verdict: Saints are pro side earlier at lower number; possibly a wait-and-see.

Cowboys at Jets

[47:19 – 52:31]

• Current line: Cowboys -2.5, moving toward -3/-3.5
• Chad: “The Jets could be at their lowest right now. The Cowboys could be at their highest right now ... This is like the ultimate high-low, right? You want to sell the Cowboys right now. You want to buy the Jets right now.” (52:31–52:39)
• Simon: “Let them bet it up. If we get three and a half, amazing. ... The Cowboys are definitely the square side.”
• Both: Advocating patience, but will likely pounce on Jets +3 or +3.5.
• Verdict: Classic pro spot—buy low on Jets, sell high on Cowboys; wait for best number.

Titans at Cardinals

[54:20 – 57:31]

• Current line: Titans +8.5; reached +9.5, now back
• Simon: “Titans are the sharp side ... I hate it ... These pros are suckers for pain, coming on the Titans once again ... I can't get there.”
• Chad: “We know enough to avoid betting the bad team but not enough to bet against them.”
• Verdict: Textbook sharp/square split—models call for Titans, but neither wants to touch this truly bad team.

Bucs at Seahawks

[57:31 – 61:05]

• Line: Opened SEA -2.5, now -3.5, injuries to Bucs (Bucky Irving MRI)
• Simon: “I think it’s just injuries, but Seattle is highly overrated right now...This is a Bucs great number if you just want to bet the under here.”
• Cautious: On Bucs +3.5 if injuries clear, but would avoid with uncertainty.
• Verdict: Lean Bucs if healthy; under might have value.

Commanders at Chargers

[62:54 – 65:57]

• Line: Chargers -2.5 (moved down from 3); key injury watch on Washington QB Jayden Daniels.
• Simon: “If Daniels comes back this is a good matchup for him ... Strictly based off numbers, if this is +3 right now, grab that Washington.”
• Chad: Will grab a little Commanders +3 on Daniels news.
• Verdict: Monitor health reports; value at +3 with Daniels starting.

Lions at Bengals

[65:56 – 71:31]

• Lions -10 at Cincinnati; Bengals in worst historical funk
• Simon: “We're supposed to take the Bengals, but ... this just feels like it should be 13. The Bengals are a bad team ... Normally back in the day, the Bengals bounce back here… It's painful, though, but I'm on the other side.”
• Chad: “Inflation is just so high in the Lions right now and it's so low on the Bengals. It’s astonishing to me to hear you defeated that you’re taking the Lions.”
• Stat drop: Home dogs of 7+ in Weeks 1–9 are 21–1 ATS the last 3 years.
• Verdict: Contrarian spot says Bengals, but Simon can’t trust them; Chad intrigued but both cautious.

3. Primetime Spotlight <a name="primetime"></a>

Patriots at Bills (SNF)

[75:32 – 78:52]

• Line: Bills -8 (moved from -7.5)
• Chad: “Are we ready to commit to Drake May in a game that could potentially be a shootout at what is now a big number?”
• Simon: “It’s going to be public, very square, this Patriots side ... I do want to be on the Bills, but it’s Tuesday. I’ll be patient, hopefully get a better number.”
• Total at 50.5: Simon expects sharp under money.
• Verdict: Inclined to back Bills, but will wait for potentially better number; watch for steam on Patriots.

Chiefs at Jaguars (MNF)

[80:58 – 84:57]

• Line: Chiefs -3.5 at Jacksonville
• Chad (Chad Loves): “Could a revived run game and clearly their running game has been better with Travis Etienne... could they control a little bit of the Trevor Lawrence volatility against a run defense ranked 30th? ... Plus it’s the right spot for the Jags. You’re getting the hook at home.”
• Simon: “Trevor Lawrence going against a Spags defense—isn’t that the biggest red flag in the world to you? ... I cannot believe you love this game. You’re out of your mind making this your favorite bet.”
  “I think your read is right here... but as soon as I saw this, I was like, 'Oh my God, I’m getting the Chiefs right now.' ... The professionals are coming in on this Jags side. They're moving this number down to three.”
• Verdict: True sharp/square split—pro money on Jags +3.5, but hosts disagree.

4. Notable Quotes & Moments <a name="quotes"></a>

• Simon, on betting ugly dogs: “This is the part of the season where the really, really bad teams are the ones we have to bet.”
• Chad, on Jets-Cowboys: “This is like the ultimate high low, right? You want to sell the Cowboys right now. You want to buy the Jets right now.” (52:31)
• Simon, on Titans: “These pros are suckers for pain. They’re coming on the Titans once again, bet it down. Let me get Cardinals seven. I’d rather be there…than anywhere on the Titans.” (55:13)
• Chad, on Jags-Chiefs: “You’re getting the hook at home. Why did you say oh no or God damn it when I said I love this?” (80:58)
• Simon, on the contest: “You're missing it...The Chiefs, it's still the Chiefs, still got Spag, still got Mahomes, still got Andy. I get it. They look so bad, but man, I can't believe we're back in Jags 3 and a half. But I see where you're coming from. This is a good number.” (83:36)
• Simon, on Houston pick urgency: “Grab the three and a half right now because I’m going to trust that movement. Even if Lamar does play, something is wrong here.” (30:51)

5. Key Takeaways and Trending Strategies <a name="takeaways"></a>

• Patience pays for bigger numbers: Especially with sharp dogs—wait for the public to pile on chalk and grab +3.5 instead of +2.5, etc.
• Injuries/quarterback uncertainty: Key to line movement—act quickly when major news breaks.
• Professional/square line flips: When a dog becomes a favorite, be especially cautious—squares often end up on wrong side (“we’ve been burned by this number, flipping on these sides here”).
• Sharpest picks this week (as per show):
  • Texans +3.5 (“Simon Says” best bet)
  • Jets +3 (if it appears)
  • Broncos +4.5
  • Commanders +3 (if Daniels plays)
  • Panthers -1.5 (sharp side, monitor injuries/line)
  • Jaguars +3.5 (contested, but clear sharp-vs-square)
  • Saints -2 (if early number held)
• “Ugly” underdogs haven’t yet burned pros—but they’re watching for that shoe to drop as season shifts toward public favorite success.
• Contests require discipline: At least one favorite in the contest set, but willingness to lean “gross” dogs remains the edge.

Summary for Non-Listeners:
Chad and Simon take you through a deeply thoughtful, honest, and highly analytical NFL Week 5 betting preview. They wrestle with conflicting signals—betting models versus reality, sharp moves versus public surges, and past trends versus present injury crises. The episode is a masterclass in line-reading and market psychology, highlighted by practical advice for timing bets amid quarterback chaos and shifting public sentiment. The Jags-Chiefs, Jets-Cowboys, and Texans-Ravens games exemplify the sharp/square edge chased all show. You'll come away convinced sometimes the ugliest bets offer the most value, but only if you can stomach the pain.