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Sharp or Square
NFL WEEK 5 Bets: Cowboys-Jets, Broncos-Eagles, Pats-Bills, Giants-Saints and more
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- [00:02]
Simon Hunter
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- [00:30]
Chad Millman
Ever go to McNachos on game day.
- [00:32]
Simon Hunter
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- [01:13]
Chad Millman
Delicious appetizers and pair them up with.
- [01:16]
Simon Hunter
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- [01:51]
Chad Millman
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- [01:56]
Simon Hunter
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- [02:03]
Chad Millman
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- [02:11]
Simon Hunter
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- [02:20]
Chad Millman
Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Voluum Podcast Network. This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper. It makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I'm joined as always by my co host mate bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon.
- [02:46]
Simon Hunter
Chad. It has been an amazing weekend. For a person like me. That is the ultimate hater. And what I mean by that is people don't know I Want success for my own teams, but I want failure for the teams I hate. And this was amazing weekend. If you hate the Mets like I do. Had a historical Met Down. I know people don't follow baseball, it's a football show. But basically the Mets were shooing to make the playoffs and had an epic collapse and did not make the playoffs literally on the last game of the year. And again, as a Phillies fan, I get it. We're I think the favorite to win the World Series. Baseball, that means nothing. It's so fluky. You need a ton of luck. The right guys get hot. So as a baseball fan, I truly am a hater. Watch the fact that the Mets are already out. I got no, I don't have to worry about the Braves. The Mets. The Phillies could lose to the Reds. I would be upset. But I won't be as upset as I would be if it's a Met. So yeah, it was an amazing weekend. And he pulls one on the ground. A chance for two to second, one.
- [03:44]
Chad Millman
Back to first and the Mets agonizing.
- [03:48]
Simon Hunter
Three and a half month slow motion collapse is complete. It is unfathomable that this collection of talent winds up outside of an expanded pool playoff system. And then even better. Cowboys tied. Couldn't even get a win. The Cowboys, they had to tie a game. So very fun weekend for someone like me as a Philadelphia sports fan.
- [04:11]
Chad Millman
Listen, I am a huge Phillies fan as you and I discussed. Even though I'm from Chicago, obviously the Cubs are my loyalty and I'm going to want the Cubs to advance and win the World Series. But you know how much I love Phillies. TikTok. You know how much I love going to Phillies games. You know how much I love Philly's fans. I think they're the kindest and most supportive of all fans in Philly. The Mets collapse has been something else. I can't tell you how many calls I've been on in the past week where Mets fans have just been lamenting and in agony. You know who didn't collapse this past weekend? Simon? Caleb Williams, you and me. You and me and the Sharp or Square podcast record. Cause we went 3 and 2 last week in our five favorite picks from our Sunday morning show. We won with the Rams, Raiders and Lions, lost predictably with the Chargers and got bakered by the Bucks. Just a reminder folks, make sure you check out that Sunday AM show if you want the games that will ultimately be our official five after we've reviewed the latest line moves from Thursday to Sunday. The injuries as I said for the year we're 12 and 8. 60% through the first month, Simon, of the football season. I'll take it. I know that you will too.
- [05:36]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, painful. Went out 14, 6. We left a couple out there and then we did. Whenever we do these type of record boards flash up. I mean going with the red for our loss weeks is going to be painful together. A couple bad weeks midway through the season. So yeah, got to keep it in that green. Got to get that 3 and 2 every week.
- [05:54]
Chad Millman
I'm thrilled to be at 12 and 8. This is our Tuesday show. We're going to review the entire slate. We are entering that part of the season, Simon, where the really, really, really, really bad teams are the ones that start lighting up as teams that we have to bet. So we're going to have some of those gross conversations today. And there's different sort of stratospheres of bad teams to bet and some are just I test bad and some are bad spot. Can they bounce back bad. So that's going to be what's interesting when we chat today. Don't forget, get the shows at Sharper Square, Sharp or Square on YouTube. Go subscribe and like this video. While you're at it, you can subscribe to Sharper Square on apple pods, Spotify, etc. All right, we're going to kick this thing off with Thursday Night Football, 8:15pm Eastern on Amazon Prime. Somebody wake up Al Michaels. Our beloved Rams are on. Here's what's interesting. You know, you and I, Sunday night ending the month of September, had a conversation about the teams that we think might be the best in the NFL. I said Eagles and you said Rams. And what's interesting to me is the Rams underlying metrics actually do have them as the best team in the NFL. Better than the Eagles. Kudos to you, Simon, for being professional. Better. Who got it right in the moment on Sunday night.
- [07:24]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And not that the numbers mean nothing. Right. It's some teams at certain matchups and who they played against and everything like that matters early in the season. So for me it was just looking at who they played and how they played and what I've seen from their defense and obviously from Stafford where I, I was just so worried about his back. Right. Anyone that misses a month, a month summer camp. And it turns out it was the right move. Right. They just, they maybe he re aggravated it and they just wanted to rest, get it right. And he came back at the exact right time. He's looked great through four weeks and like we Said last week he had a couple, you know, five, four or five drives where they just went three and out. They had no rhythm. That's kind of what Stafford can be like, right? He is a guy that needs to get in rhythm. You've seen the best sometimes for him is their two minute drill when he just dropping back passing. They're not thinking. He's just in the flow state. So I, I love this. That was a miss on us by Sunday night. This was minus three Sunday night. I did look at it and I. My whole.
- [08:19]
Chad Millman
Yeah, let me. It's, it's. It. Let me just set it up here for a second. The, the Niners are visiting the Rams. It opened at three, it went to three and a half. Injury news around Brock Purdy and potentially Mac Jones has moved this to five and a half. So apologize but continue.
- [08:35]
Simon Hunter
And we knew that Purdy might have been banged up from that game where like he had a bunch of stuff that just didn't look right. He wasn't moving great. And yeah, if they make the decision, go with Mac Jones. How can you not love the Rams here? This would be a horrible spot to put Mac Jones in. And against a Rams team that, you know, I feel like they understand this is a big deal. This is the team that they're going to probably most likely face the top divisionally and you need to get them while you can. Right? The 49ers have had some of the them. The Ravens are the two by far worst injury luck teams. I guess Bengals fans want a fair fight with Joe Burrow, but I'm talking about the whole team. Like the amount of injuries the 49ers had across the board, it's been insane. So you know, you saw last week, Purdy kept them the game they had chances to win. I don't know if Stafford will do the same here. So at this number, Chad, if, if we're thinking Purdy's out five, five and a half, I'll. I'll take it for now. It's. It's just a number. I'm betting that if Purdy is out, this will be in every parlay. All the teasers, everything's gonna be tied to this Rams team. So I easily see this getting up to six, six and a indeed a Mac Jones start here. So wanted, honestly wanted to be on the 49ers here. This was going to be a 49ers line and spot but now with all the injury stuff, it's just. I'm on Ramsar. I'll just stay away Completely in this game.
- [09:54]
Chad Millman
Yeah. What's interesting is the three and a half up to five and a half. That doesn't seem like enough of a move for going from Brock Purdy to Kyle Shanahan. And by the way, I mean from Brock Purdy to Mac Jones. And by the way, Mac Jones is injured too. Like he's got a bum knee right now. Do you know who the third string quarterback is for the San Francisco 49ers?
- [10:21]
Simon Hunter
I do, but now I can't remember.
- [10:23]
Chad Millman
On top of that, do you want me to tell you?
- [10:24]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, yeah.
- [10:25]
Chad Millman
Adrian Martinez. Adrian Martinez, you might remember, was a quarterback who never quite got Nebraska.
- [10:33]
Simon Hunter
Nebraska. Yes, I do remember him.
- [10:34]
Chad Millman
And then he went to Kansas State and then he was undrafted in 2023 and right now his claim to fame is that he was the UFL MVP in 2024. So tell me, with Brock Purdy injured and Mac Jones nursing a bad knee, how is it only five and a half?
- [10:52]
Simon Hunter
I hope it stays Mac Jones. I don't want that kid coming in, Chad, because I do remember from college and he is very, very, very, very, very, very Colin Capric. Like he's that type of running style quarterback that like I could see Kyle using him in the same way that, you know, Harbaugh back in, they used to use Kaepernick. Yeah, that's an interesting play because I did not know, I didn't know it was him. I thought it was some other, the veteran as their third string. So yeah, I'm, I'm on the same boat where I hope it's Mac Jones and obviously I'm not going to be scared off if it is this kid coming in. But I can squint my eyes enough to see in his first start, like we always say, with no tape, you could. This could, that could be a sneaky spot play for them. But I think you're right. I think they're going to still go with Mac Jones even if he's banged up. You know, Kyle just likes the veteran quarterback and you got to run his system. So like you said, he's got a little injury himself. This number's going up. Like I'm looking at a couple of public books right now. Five and a half. I think that's very, very, very true. What Chad's saying here, that the number probably hasn't moved enough and maybe we are getting good value here as long as it's below six.
- [11:55]
Chad Millman
All right, well, that's interesting. We might want to think about that today. Simon, you know my favorite place in the world is London, England. I know that you have an English passport. You know that I'm really, really good at accents. So guess what we're doing? We're heading out to international waters, my friend. International waters. The land that law forgot. It was at 9:30am Eastern from Jolly old London, England. We've got another brecky. We're getting the full English. I'm going all of it. I'm going all of it. We got Cleveland visiting. Not visiting, but Cleveland at Minnesota. They kind of are visiting. Vikings are three and a half point favorites because the Vikings got there by the time this game is played almost two weeks ago. All the acclimation, all the sort of sleep deprivation, all the jet lag out of their system, Cleveland is getting there this week. This one befuddles me a little bit because the line opened at five and a half and it's moved to three and a half. I can't figure it out. Like, Kevin Stefanski has already been non committal about if Joe Flacco is going to be the quarterback, meaning they may bring in Dylan Gabriel. Joe Flacco, we've been saying this every week. He's truly horrendous. We bet him on week one because it was a great spot at home against the Bengals. We bet on him last week against them last week because it was a great spot to fade the Browns on the road. Now we're getting the Browns going overseas against a Minnesota team that offensively is doing well enough. And defensively it's either going to be Joe Flacco against Brian Flores and him having to move, which he can't, or Dylan Gabriel. All 511 of Dylan Gabriel going against Brian Flores in his first game in an international game. Why is this moving in the Browns direction?
- [14:06]
Simon Hunter
I mean, have you seen the Vikings offensive line and their depth chart?
- [14:11]
Chad Millman
It's bad.
- [14:12]
Simon Hunter
It's. It's bad. It is so bad. And you know, this total has been dropping too. I think it opened in the 40s and it's down to 36 and a half. So professional money have come in heavy on the under. They've come in heavy on this Browns team. And look, my first thought was, you know, aren't we going to want to fade this Browns team?
- [14:32]
Chad Millman
Because mine too.
- [14:34]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I like, I like the Browns at home. That's going to be something. I'm a standby, that they're just going to be a different team at home. And two scariest words in the world, Chad. The Browns away. The Browns are in England. So it's like this isn't a home game. They're on the road. I know it's outdoors on grass, but it scares me a little bit. I wanted to be on the Browns, honestly, because you're getting this incredible defense against a guy that, yes, he can string it together at some points with those incredible weapons, Carson Wentz, but you've gotten the full on Carson woods experience. He's going to be running around behind that bad offensive line with one hand on the ball, trying to do spin moves, you know, 20 yards back. Like he just can't help himself. So you are playing with fire in this game. I'll take the dog. But like, it's another thing like Pittsburgh last week. I took Pittsburgh with zero confidence. Just simply playing the number that they had made Carson Wentz a favorite on the road somewhere. And it feels like the same thing here. I'm not trying. I'm trying not to overthink it that Chad is right. The Browns with Flacco, it's look putrid, but Flacco is the type of quarterback that he won't be scared by. You know, the defense the Vikings run of these safeties running down to the line and sprinting back 20 yards like he doesn't care about all that movement, all the stuff like that. Where if it is Gabriel, you're right. Chad probably wouldn't be as heavily invested. You don't want a rookie going against a Flores defense. We always know that's never going to work out for them with all the different looks you'll get. So, yeah, this number, like Chad said, there's a couple four and a half still up there in Cleveland. Hard Rock was one of the first to move to three and a half. So, yeah, some very, very smart professional money has moved this number. And I'm looking the splits right now. The public is joining them. The public is on Cleveland with the professionals. Here we are on Tuesday. So interesting, interesting. Everyone's just totally out on that Vikings team. There might be value on this Vikings team, like we're saying, but we have to wait for it to get to the three, in my opinion.
- [16:25]
Chad Millman
I'm not. I'm not looking to play the Browns here. I'm looking for this number to get as low as possible so I can be comfortable playing the Vikings.
- [16:32]
Simon Hunter
So I would have four and a half. You can get a four and a half on the Browns. I would play that if.
- [16:36]
Chad Millman
Because I want to enjoy. You know, I'll probably have my cottage cheese with a little bit of cinnamon and some fresh fruit. Maybe throw some chia seeds in there really, really ramp it up to get ready for a long day football while I'm watching the football. But I don't want to be on the Browns here. I like, I think there are certain spots for the Browns. This doesn't feel like one of them to me. Now we're going to get interesting. Minnesota. I mean Miami at Carolina. Carolina 1 1/2 point favorite. As we came on the air, I had not seen this line move. So if it moved in any direction, I'm not aware of it yet. We have assiduously avoided betting the Panthers. We have not been suckered by their promise or the flashes of Bryce Young in garbage time. You know, whether it was against the Pats last week in which they dominated the box score mainly because they were down 28 to 6 by halftime, we actually liked the Pats this past weekend. And spot the wise guys liked Carolina. The defense also made Drake May look kind of perfect. 14, 17, averaging 10 yards per attempt. The market did correct, right? So after they got blown out, it moved from Carolina minus one to Carolina plus one and a half before the Monday Night Football game. But then even after the Dolphins win, it had moved back and stayed at Carolina minus one and a half. Everything in this game says I want to bet Carolina. Historically, this is where we should back Carolina, especially off a primetime win for the Dolphins and off of a blowout loss for Carolina. Here's the one thing that's holding me back. These flips from plus one and a half to minus one and a half. The dogs just always end up being on the wrong side. We've seen it a couple times this year, Ravens and Raiders. What am I doing here? What sharp? What square? Give me. Give me the lean and tell me if my lean on Carolina is sharp because I want it to be.
- [18:57]
Simon Hunter
It's definitely the sharp side. Carolina. But that's the movement on this one. It's interesting because it was one. It was minus one minus one and a half last week and it flipped like you said, just for a little bit to Miami. And it didn't matter what the Miami outcome was gave me if Miami got rolled, I still think this would have flipped back to the Panthers. I still think the professionals would have came in on this Panther side. And last week I know you didn't see it. That was such a Miami spot that were 03 playing against a bad team at home. And I know historical data showed people that Owen three teams, you just blindly take the dog. I think it's a 60% bet, but that that was that's to his spot to against a bad team at home, especially the jets, who I think he's never lost to at home. He wins those games and this is the type of game that old Tua from just two years ago would win. He's going to play a bad Panthers defense. He should light this defense up. But we've seen they are just a bad team. They're inconsistent, especially on the defensive side. So last week the Panthers had opportunities against the Patriots. It was just a horrible Bryce Young game. He was terrible. I went back and watched the film. Bad throws. Even on throws, he's connecting with guys. He's throwing them behind them, slowing them up so they have to drop back to catch it and fall down. And just not being what you need Bryce Young to be, which is he's supposed to be insanely accurate. It's the one thing he was supposed to be great at in college. You saw this year in the games they've won and they played well. He's been really on target. Like his throws have been incredible. So it is tough where you are spot on. This is such a Panther spot. It's a Panthers number against a bad Miami team that to me is just going to be overrated now by the public because what you just said, what they did in that prime time game where their defense, I, I think Chuba Hubbert could have a huge game in this matchup. I'm going to dive more into this Panthers team because they have injuries as well to their offensive line and see what I can find out there. But as you sit here right now, I think your initial read of this being a Panther spot is true. This is almost my Simon says pick. But it's like I've punished the fans enough. I want to find something a little, little grosser than this one. And yeah, the, the Panthers right now it feels like you can be patient if you want. Like there is one book out there that still has them as a dog. I think they're all going to flip. The Panthers being a favorite. So I just don't see it going back to Miami being a favorite in the spot. I think it's going to be Panthers professional money. While the public is going to come in on this Miami side, especially the plus one and a half, they're going to love that number on Miami.
- [21:27]
Chad Millman
So you think that professional money is just going to outweigh anything that the public does on the Dolphins because like maybe this could, maybe it could get down to one, maybe it could get down to pick, you know What I.
- [21:41]
Simon Hunter
Mean, I mean, I can look now. There, there were. There are ones out there. Yeah, there's a bunch of ones out there and there's. I mean, there's a book right now that has it at half. Half a point. So it's like you could shop around. I mean, I don't want to say it doesn't matter because we just saw it literally happened last week with the Bears and the Raiders.
- [21:58]
Chad Millman
We've seen it happen a couple times this year.
- [22:01]
Simon Hunter
But yeah, it's, it's an interesting proposition where if you could obviously get that plus one and a half, that's the spot you want to be in with this Panthers team. But I still think that the, the minus one is a good number on this Panther side. I like that number for them in this matchup.
- [22:16]
Chad Millman
I'm looking as well. I see. I see one spot that is at Panthers minus a half. So. I know it's just, it's scary when we see that line flipping because we know sort of historically that that move is against you if you take the favorite, that, that if you take the team that closes as the favorite. So I was with you, though. I was thinking about making that. Chad Loves. I'm not sure I'm ready to dive into the Panthers yet. So aggressively. We'll probably end up wanting to play them in some capacity. Las Vegas Raiders visiting the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts are six and a half point favorites. You mentioned grabbing this on Sunday night when it opened, assuming it would go up. It did. It went to seven, then it came back down. I think you and I are both much more impressed with Indy's loss against the Rams. Sort of solidified them as a good team that wasn't an early season fluke. A lot of Colts betters and fans would say they should have won that game pretty easily if not for Adonai Mitchell and his, you know, fumble across the goal line and the holding call on a Jonathan Taylor touchdown. I mean, that's 14 points right there. It's hard to exaggerate how important that was to the game. And look, Gino Smith has just been terrible. Like, we love Geno. We thought he'd be a difference maker. A veteran presence for this team with really good talent. He'd been awful, just awful.
- [23:50]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's, I knew this was going to be a super public play. I said it's Sunday. This was going to be one more public spots for this Colts team. And it's, it's, it's looking that way. It's, you know, a handful of Professional betters reach out to me. They like the Raiders, they like them at +7 and it's what we view the same thing. It's. You're getting Geno once again indoors and we've seen him be able to push the ball downfield and you know, these last couple weeks, maybe it is just a fluke, right? It's him getting comfortable in offense, but I see a guy that just simply cannot see the field right now. He is throwing it to guys that are just not open at all with defenses, defensive players literally right there next to the guy. Like, it's not as if it's a super tight window. I'm talking about a defender on him that Gino has, before the ball is even snapped, made the read in his mind. I'm throwing to this guy no matter what. You do not want to be seen that from a 10 year vet in this league. It's. It's really bad with Gino because you can just see he's in his own head, he's not playing free. This is the worst he's looked since, you know, the first year in this for the Seahawks where you know, he was working through things and you saw him getting better throughout the like couple years there at Seattle. Right now he looks totally regressed. He looks terrible. Raiders, I'm telling you, they're going to be the professional side. I mean, the early line movement showed that. I really thought this was gonna get the seven and a half. Like we were saying, this was steaming up. We came on Sunday, it opened five and a half, went to six, went right to six and a half, got up to seven. Now it's kind of settled in here at six and a half. No opinion on it right now. I'm like really, really trying hard not to just give out this cold side because I love it so much. I'm already on the cold side. But I want to see what more what the professional do this line is as this week goes along because I, I need to hear more about why they like this Raiders team so much in this spot against a Colts team that I think we both agree they look legit like a playoff team. This is the type of team that good playoff teams who coming off a loss on the road, come home and they beat up on bad teams at home in this spot. So I think the number, the number is warranted. It's good respect for the books. Given this number to the Colts. The question is, has the number moved too much, Chad? And that's what I'm worried about here. So I'll be patient. We'll talk about this game on Thursday, and I'm sure we'll hear a bunch of bunch more calls about it on short calls.
- [26:03]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Like it. You know, we're trying to thread the needle a little bit here. The last couple years, the favorites, when they're a significantly better team, are winning at margin. And so we're trying not to just do what historically, quote unquote, the professional betting community would do and. And take the worst team in a number that's getting to a touchdown automatically, just because that's what you're supposed to do, which is why I'm with you. I sort of look at this and think, all right, this feels sneaky to me. And maybe it's like, you know, we're. We're overthinking it, but I kind of want to be in the cult and I want to figure out how to get there.
- [26:53]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, and we'll see, too, as the season goes along here, because right now, that's why I'm upset that we don't have a better record. This has honestly been one of the best starts in my professional career to a season. It feels like all the. All the dogs we love, they're all coming through. The easy chalk favorites against these really bad teams that we just don't trust are coming through. And I'm interested what it goes along here as the season progresses because the dogs, like Chad said, they fell off a cliff. We could not stop going two and three last year because no matter what that third dog or that fourth dog we took in our contest would just get rolled. We're not used to that. Usually they would cover or at least keep these games closed. So that's what I'm excited to see because we're through four weeks. It's honestly been a dream. Like, if you especially guys I know who just simply fade the public, they have been cashing at an alarming rate. I mean, how. Like that. That Cowboys, packers games are the prime example. I think last Sunday I said, I don't care what the number was for the Cowboys. You're going to have to fade that Green Bay team. This number is going to get a bit too inflated. I think it touched seven at some point last week.
- [27:52]
Chad Millman
Yeah, seven and a half.
- [27:54]
Simon Hunter
Right. And it's like that was. That's what should be happening. We're used to that, right? Those examples, like Chef's saying last year the Green Bay wins that game by 20. It was very bizarre last year what was happening with the favorites. So right now I think it's looking good for us. We can stay confident betting our ugly dogs. But if we get, if we have two, three weeks in a row, we get burned. Like say week nine, 10 and 11. I do think we'll have a major discussion where we need to make those adjustments that last year we didn't make and this year we're going to make. So we've done well this year. We've been putting favorites in. Yeah, they've been coming through for us. I think we got to stay the course, that we at east always get one favorite in our picks. And this week, I don't know about you, I have a couple favorites I like, but this one here, it's another favorite I like the Colts minus six and a half.
- [28:38]
Chad Millman
Houston at Baltimore Baltimore is a three and a half point favorite right now. Dude, this was at nine on Monday morning. Nine. By Monday afternoon it was at three and a half because of all the news about Lamar Jackson in addition to all the other Ravens injuries. But this is really about Lamar Jackson and his uncertain status because of his hamstring. Here's what I find interesting. I alluded to it earlier. The Ravens might be without Lamar and the line moves, what is it about five and a half points with the potential downgrade to Cooper Rush. The Niners might be without Brock Purdy. The line only moves two points with the downgrade to Mac Jones. So my question is for you before we get into the game, is Lamar really only worth five and a half points more than Cooper Rush? And is Brock really only worth two more points than Mac Jones?
- [29:36]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I would say don't, don't read too much into these like dumb articles. That's like bookmakers say this quarterback's worth this many points of this team and it's all, it's all about that game, that situation. And it's, I think people over overreact way too much to it because you've seen it with the Bengals. Is Joe bro not worth 20 points to that team?
- [29:58]
Chad Millman
Clearly.
- [29:58]
Simon Hunter
So that's what I mean. It's very stupid. Someone's like, well this bookmaker here says Lamar Jackson is the highest rated. He's worth eight points to this team. Oh, oh, fucking K. Like it's all about the game, the matchup and the situation. So you're right, it opened nine and a half. It quickly went to seven and a half. Hard Rock here in Jersey is at three. And I keep saying Hard Rock to me is one of the sharper books that like on whatever it was two in the Morning or one in the morning on Saturday night, I tweeted they were the first book I saw go to the Chiefs plus two. And people are like, what does that mean? I'm like, that means really smart professional money sitting in that Hard Rock number. Same thing's happening here. The professionals are taking a stand. If this number is dipping to three, that means they think they know something here. So I've jumped in on the three and a half. I'm making text and Simon says, call me Simon.
- [30:47]
Chad Millman
What do you want?
- [30:48]
Simon Hunter
I want to play a game.
- [30:50]
Chad Millman
What kind of game?
- [30:52]
Simon Hunter
Simon says, grab the three and a half right now because I'm going to trust that movement. Even if Lamar does play, something is wrong here. You saw him get caught by guys, some linebackers on that Chiefs team. Never, ever, ever, ever catch Lamar. If you even go back a week, it looked like he lost half a step. So I think this is an injury he's been battling through. You throw in all the injuries now the Ravens have had to their team. This is an amazing spot for Houston that. That Woody Marks AD having a running back like him with that speed out of the backfield that can catch and run, I think that's going to take Houston up another level. Now, where they were trying to force in Nick Chubb, it was not working. I think Woody Marks is a huge upgrade at the running back position. Now you add in that CJ feels like he has a rhythm going up against a front four of this Ravens team that can't get pressure and can't stop the run. I'm going to take this number, and if it is Cooper Rush, I think Chad's right. What will this number end up at? Right? Is it going to be a pick? Is this going to flip to Houston being a favorite? Let's get ahead of it. I'm going to grab that three and a half if Lamar comes back. At worst, I see this getting up the four and a half. I don't see him moving the number that much because I don't think he's right. I think he is banged up and this is insane. This is crazy how far we've fallen with this Ravens team. But it's just the injuries. They've been bitten by it. Lamar's been bitten by it. It's just all going bad for this Ravens team. And this is a. This is a. This is a Houston number here, plus three and a half, I believe.
- [32:18]
Chad Millman
Yeah. The only thing that scared me kind of annoyed me. I would have bet it yesterday. I just bet it literally. While you While you were talking. Your urgency inspired me to make the bet while you were talking.
- [32:29]
Simon Hunter
Because the fear is if we're on the show and Lamar's out, this. This does flip. And it's like, great, now we missed three opportunities. Get the best of the number in this matchup, and I don't want to miss it here. I don't want the fans to miss it either.
- [32:38]
Chad Millman
That's exactly what it is. Like, I'm already. I'm annoyed that I didn't get the nine. I'm annoyed I didn't get the seven. I'm like, are you kidding me? That because I was freaking stretching between stretching and, you know, the two hours later when I finally started working on my stuff for the day, I missed the number and I missed six points of value here. Are you kidding me?
- [32:58]
Simon Hunter
I know.
- [33:00]
Chad Millman
That's what's annoying me.
- [33:01]
Simon Hunter
I was gonna say, no one wants to hear about your bet. You didn't make. My worst one was that early morning game last week with the Vikings. Wentz gets the ball back. I knew he was going to get them downfield and somehow score a touchdown. And I go to hit it live. It's plus nine and a half, that Vikings team. And he just. That exact moment, he throws that bomb and it's just taken down immediately to three and a half. And it's like Jess said, you just don't want to miss the number here. So if people are hearing this, grab it now. I think this. I think the three and a half will be gone by the end of Wednesday. If we do hear Lamar is out or still not practice this week.
- [33:34]
Chad Millman
Yep.
- [33:35]
Simon Hunter
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- [34:05]
Chad Millman
There's a lot going on in Hollywood. How are you supposed to stay on top of it all? Variety has the solution. Take 20 minutes out of your day and listen to the new daily Variety podcast for breaking entertainment news and expert perspectives.
- [34:19]
Simon Hunter
Where do you see the business actually heading?
- [34:21]
Chad Millman
Featuring the iconic journalists of Variety and hosted by co editor in chief Steve Cynthia Littleton.
- [34:27]
Simon Hunter
The only constant in Hollywood is change.
- [34:30]
Chad Millman
Open your free iHeartradio app, search daily Variety and listen now. Malcolm Gladwell here.
- [34:39]
Simon Hunter
I recently recorded the first episode of.
- [34:41]
Chad Millman
Smart Talks with IBM where I learned how AI agents are joining AI assistants.
- [34:46]
Simon Hunter
As a major productivity tool.
- [34:49]
Chad Millman
Let's start with AI agents.
- [34:51]
Simon Hunter
AI agents can reason, plan and collaborate with other AI tools to autonomously perform.
- [34:56]
Chad Millman
Tasks for a user. Brian Bitzel, an expert from IBM, gave.
- [35:01]
Simon Hunter
Me an example of how a college freshman might use an AI agent as a new student. You may not know how do I deal with my health and wellness issue? How many credits am I going to get for this given class? You could talk to someone and find out some of that, but maybe it's a little bit sensitive and you don't.
- [35:17]
Chad Millman
Want to do that, bissell told me. You could build an AI agent, a.
- [35:21]
Simon Hunter
Resource for new students that helps them.
- [35:23]
Chad Millman
Navigate a new campus, register for classes, access the services they need, and even schedule appointments on their behalf, which in turn buys them more time to focus.
- [35:32]
Simon Hunter
On their actual schoolwork. We can see patterns of how agents and assistants can help employees and customers and end users be more productive, automate workflows so they're not doing certain types of repetitive work over and over again and streamlining their lives and making data more accessible to them 24 hours a day. To learn more about IBM's AI agents.
- [35:58]
Chad Millman
And how they can help your business, visit IBM.comagents.
- [36:05]
Simon Hunter
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- [36:23]
Chad Millman
The other way around.
- [36:24]
Simon Hunter
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- [36:44]
Chad Millman
Denver at Philadelphia so look in the light of day after the Eagles game against the Bucs, this line started moving down from five and a half to five to four and a half. It got to four over the course of late Sunday night and Monday morning moved back to four and a half. Clearly some big Eagles bets from professionals on the Eagles at 4. Like A.J. brown is very much emoting on social media after the win. I know you saw this after the win on Sunday against a team that has historically given the Eagles a lot of trouble, he tweeted. If you're not welcomed, not listened to, quietly withdraw. Don't make a scene, shrug your shoulders and be on your way. And then of course, Sirianni, Nick Sirianni, you know, mentioned it yesterday, said everything's good, there's no problem. You know, will they try to target AJ Moore? That seems to be the pattern after he sort of makes cryptic comments. I'm a little surprised the line moved back in the Eagles direction though.
- [37:57]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And the Eagles, they're the. The media just loves them. Right? Because that if you're the laziest sports media, you can talk about the Eagles every day. If you went for an hour. Because their fans will engage it. I mean, there's a reason, like I'm an Eagles fan. There's no doubt we have some of the dumbest fans. I love it though. Like they are so ride or die. It's the best. That's why I don't need to fight with people on the Internet. I have plenty of idiots from Philadelphia on the Internet memeing people, putting stupid stats. That just makes zero incoherent sense. But how great this team is and how great everything is. And you know, AJ tweeting that out. Yeah, he probably is saying something that we're all taking one way that means something totally different. That's AJ's personality. He's that type of guy. And I love AJ. Like as an Eagles fan, he's never. He's not going anywhere. We talked about it. If they traded him right now, I think it's like 70 million in dead cap. He's not going anywhere for that. He's not going anywhere two, three years, no matter what. And if you're AJ and you're four zero and you're coming off a Super bowl victory. Sure. Does he want more touches? I'm sure. But I'm telling you, AJ is not like people make him out to be. He's not to. He's not that much of a self centered narcissist that he's really that mad about not getting touches. Getting back to this game. Yeah. This is a Broncos number on a spot. I mean this. I tried fainting this Eagles teams, they're just. Something's not right with them yet. Right. They're not comfortable in this new offense. They, like I said they should not cover that in a million different ways last week. Like that stat. Everyone's seen the fact they didn't complete a pass in the second half. You know, it was there for the. For Baker to take it. We're doing the same thing here, Chad. And we're betting on Bo Knicks in a spot that we need Bo Nicks to take it to Cover this number because Hertz is going to get his. Whether it's the first half, second half, they'll eventually get his. Saquon, who hasn't done much this year, this seems like a nice spot for him to get right against a Denver team that yes, they're a good defense, but you saw like when they played the Colts against a good running back like Jonathan Taylor, he was able to run the ball. And you saw in the Chargers game with Herbert, you can't push the ball downfield against this Denver team. So like we said, I knew that Denver's going to regression this year. I know they added guys in the off season. Anytime a team finishes as the number one defensive football, they always regress because they have a harder schedule and teams play them differently. It's really though down to Bo Nicks, Chad, and that's what's so tough with this number. I believe in it. I think another line that almost made Simon says because it was five and a half like Chad said, some books move this to three and a half. They're still at three and a half. A bunch of books shot right back up to four and a half. So really interesting that what books are taking professional monies and moving it to four and a half and what professional money is holding this at three and a half at other books. So if you like the Denver side, which I do, I grab the four and a half. But if you like the Eagle side, you can find the three and a half still. And you know, to me, I can't wait to hear the sharp calls because I'm interested to see if there's any professionals on this Eagle side where this just feels like such a sharp side. Taking this Denver side against an Eagles team that, like we said, is not in rhythm offensively, still have questions about their defense in some aspects. You saw the big playability they've given up this year. It's that number two corner. They just do not have a guy.
- [41:18]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [41:18]
Simon Hunter
And you know, as an Eagles fan, I cannot be bitter about. You see what Isaiah Rogers is doing for that Vikings team. He's like the best corner of football. How he didn't want to pay the guy like $6 million. And like again, Howie, tons of smoke. He's the greatest up his ass, but what a bad miss by him. And yeah, this is going to be an interesting one. Sharp calls. I know we're going to cause about this one. I am telling the pros, call me up if you're taking the Eagles. I want to hear your pitch here because My only reason to back them is you're fading Bo Nix. You're fading Bo Nix who struggled against playoff teams, especially on the road. This technically is that exact spot to fade Bonix. But I can't get over this number in this vehicles team just being overvalued, overrated by the general public right now and just a team that doesn't look in rhythm. So, yeah, four and a half. Looking here at Hard Rock, they're still a plus four. So shop around, try to get the four and a half if you can on this Denver team.
- [42:11]
Chad Millman
Here's what's worrying me about the Broncos. Their pass rush is entirely reliant on the blitz at this point, and that's just not going to bother Jalen Hurts. So if there's an opportunity to beat back what is currently the strength of the Broncos defense, in addition to fading Bo Nix off of a massive win. Yeah, this is sort of a one plus one could equal four and a half situation to me. There's. There's red flags all over this thing.
- [42:46]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, maybe. Maybe we'll be able to just avoid it all together. But yeah, my initial read was like, man, that's going to be another time. I'm like Denver.
- [42:53]
Chad Millman
All right, so I do want to talk about the Giants and the Saints because this is a crazy line, right? It opened Giants plus two, Giants minus two. And then we talked about it on Sunday night. Then it moved to Saints about minus one and a half. So we had a pretty decent swing on the Saints. It's another one where I'm a little annoyed I wasn't aggressive with it on Sunday night when we talked about it. But are we in an age where Jackson Dart, after he was not amazing as a thrower, has lost Malik neighbors, He's going on the road against a team that other than one game has been competitive in the Saints at home. Like, the move makes sense to me, but we lost the window.
- [43:59]
Simon Hunter
What is your hate for Jackson Dart? He did fine throwing the ball. I don't know why he keeps saying.
- [44:03]
Chad Millman
He didn't do great because he wasn't that accurate. He missed some throws.
- [44:08]
Simon Hunter
I thought he made big time throws in that.
- [44:09]
Chad Millman
I thought he was a guy who was a really good runner. Do you know what I mean?
- [44:14]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's an interesting line movement. Honestly, at first I thought this was going to be Russell Wilson news. I thought something's gonna come out. The Dart is banged up and Russell's coming out because I'm like you. I couldn't believe this had moved so many because it did get up to two and a half. Like I got Saints two and a half. There's a couple of books now that are already showing -2 on the same side. So that is either Russell Wilson is playing or really, really, really respected. Big money is just hammering the Saint side and they just keep moving this number. So my initial read was this is the same spot, this is the same side. It was going to be very easy to fade dart off that win at home. Now going on the road against the Saints team, that to me this is where I want to be with them. I want to take them at home. I think they're a different team at home. They're scrappier at home. I know the trends. You're going back multiple years here. They have not been good at home. Actually st. Surprisingly, this team though just this year I feel like they've looked better at home early in the year here. So yeah, I'm pissed. Obviously, like this was going to be an easy play. No doubt. Or it was going to be in our contest. Especially at two and a half for the Saints. It's moved a lot. Don't need to force it. Can be patient here. If you do like the Saints side and you're worried about it, keep going up to two. You can grab it now. Like that's that. That's what I'm saying. The trend of the direction right now most of the books are at -112, -115 on the saints and a couple have already popped it to. So to me, that's. That's where the professional money is moving this number. If you want to go Saints now, you can. On the flip side, if we can be patient, maybe this ends up as being a giant side and a giant summer. If this gets the plus two and a half, that gets very interesting because it is a guy who's never won a game in Spencer Rattler and now he's a feel a 2 1/2 point favorite. I don't know. At some point we'd have to come back so.
- [46:05]
Chad Millman
Right. No, I agree.
- [46:07]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. So I'm hoping this stays the same side because I'm already betting the Saints. I don't want to be trying to be the smartest guy in the room and have both sides here. I just want to stick on the Saints. So I'm hoping some professional does come in on the giant side and keep this right at where it is right now, which is at one one and a half. Another line. I might not force us in because like Chad said, we've we've been burned by this number, flipping on these sides here. But I can't help but really like the Saints here that they're going to be super desperate as an 04 team going against the Giants team that just is not that good coming off a huge win now on the road. So yeah, interesting, interesting spot for the Saints team.
- [46:42]
Chad Millman
Crazy spot. I'm. It's like I feel like it's gonna haunt me all week that it moves so much and I missed it on Sunday night. Even though I flagged it on Sunday night. I was just slow to the draw and didn't pull the trigger. Like something was holding me back.
- [47:00]
Simon Hunter
And Spencer Rattler, I get it.
- [47:02]
Chad Millman
Yeah. It was Spencer Rattler who's just holding me back. So now the numbers move too much and feels like a lost cause to me. Unless we're going to bet the Giants. All right, dude. Dallas Cowboys at the New York Jets.
- [47:19]
Simon Hunter
They are the Dallas Cowboys, a freewheeling all American starkist team.
- [47:27]
Chad Millman
Jets currently two and a half. Listen, you talked about it on Sunday night wanting to grab the jets when it was one and a half because we were worried the Cowboys might get blown out and the number might move, you know, in a direction against us. It's now moved to two and a half because of all the fireworks by the Cowboys against the packers on offense. The way the Juice is moving, this could actually get to 3. Especially after last night with the jets, you know, basically just beating themselves from the opening drive and you know, dominating the Dolphins on the ground. Brilliant. Allen getting to the 2 inch mark and then fumbling as he's about to cross the goal line. And then the jets just jetting like so many self destructive penalties. Bad personal fouls, bad holds, bad illegal motions, bad illegal formations, like you name it, every time they were driving they would kill themselves. So look, Dallas and Dakar legit offensively. No one is denying that. I do think their defense is still terrible. The jets were brutal. Like I don't even like the the jets and was hard to watch. Simon, the jets could be at the lowest right now. The Cowboys could be at their highest right now. You know what I'm saying?
- [48:49]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, that is definitely. The Cowboys are definitely the square side and this is going to be just like them against the Bears. This will be a huge public side and it's not shocking. Like I said, I said before that Bears game, Dak beats up on bad teams and the Bears proved to us in that game they're not a bad team and they beat Dak in that Matchup. Can the jets do the same chat? I don't think so. So this is a game I'll be patient with. There's already a bunch of threes out there. So like the professionals, the public alike, they are lining up on this Cowboys team. Let them, let them bet it up. If we get three and a half amazing. That will be one of the easier backdoor covers of our life because you saw it last night with Justin Fields. Like he'll do nothing for a half and then break out that one run and then totally flips their offense where now they have momentum. Now the defense is on their heels and a little tired and that's what you have here where it's Dallas is a bad team. I don't know how they can stop the run which is what the jets love to do. They love that read option which you know they were averaging felt like nine yards per carry against oh yeah, Miami. Like Chad said that that fumble after a 10 minute drive just totally reset that whole game where instead of tying it all of a sudden they're or being up 73 they're all sudden down 10 nothing. And I just don't see the same here. I think that shit's team. Once again they're an 0 and 4 team. That's why I love early year of trends because I'm excited to dive into these 014 team trends that they're not only their own four at home as an underdog guarantee they will be getting less than I don't know, 30 of the bets, 30% of the money. No one's betting this. Like I just said they're professionals. Early money here is coming on this Cowboys side so I'll be patient. Like I said I, I knew Sunday night was probably end up on the side of this jets team because it's just like I just thought that was a Miami spot that they were probably going to roll there and the public would be totally out on them after a prime tagging. I did not know the Cowboys like Chad said we're going to put up 40 on Green Bay and totally shock the world. So this is making me love the jets even more. Just be patient. Grab the three if you want. Now I am praying we get the home dog of three and a half and you know speaking future contest lines if this is three and a half autoplay on that jets number because it's that's way too much love for a Cowboys team that they are bad. They don't be mistaken by what those these games on their offense Dak is incredible. Dak needs things to break his win. You saw that they were dead until. Was it 13 to 2 after they had that blocked thing. And then all these little things happen with Green Bay brought them back in game. So Chad's right. That's the fear with the jets is they're going to give them opportunities. This is a really bad team. They'll let Dallas in. We want the best number here with this jets team. If we're going to be betting it, grab the three, wait for the three and a half if you need to.
- [51:33]
Chad Millman
Yeah, look, I'm seeing threes start to pop literally as we're talking about this. So one of the reasons I wasn't making this Chad Loves is because I wasn't seeing the threes yet.
- [51:45]
Simon Hunter
That's fair.
- [51:47]
Chad Millman
Now you're telling me that you think it'll get the three and a half. It makes me want to hold off. I've got one other game.
- [51:53]
Simon Hunter
You never know that there could be real professional resistance here, but I'm just looking at all different websites right now of all the different books I can get for the different splits, and it's just tons of early money. Every book right now is on this Cowboys side. So I think the books are in the right to keep moving it because it's like there's no resistance yet. Like, why now let the public come in heavy on this Cowboys team and yeah, two and a half. I could be like, I could be missing here. This could be a good Cowboys number. I'm overthinking it, but I just. I don't know how you can trust this Cowboys team on the road against such a desperate jets team. That just feels like a bad spot to back.
- [52:28]
Chad Millman
Well, look, this is like the ultimate high low, right?
- [52:31]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it is.
- [52:32]
Chad Millman
You want to sell the Cowboys right now. You want to buy the jets right now. That is as classic professional three strategy, right?
- [52:40]
Simon Hunter
Cowboys against the spread, jets one and three.
- [52:42]
Chad Millman
So the jets in a total spiral like this is the moment for them to take a stand at home against America's team. Like, forget about the metrics, just historically the situation. We've been in the spot. We've been in the spot this year. You take the Jets. I'm trying. I'm not talking myself into making this Chad loves because I want to see if I can get a better number. But I 100% love the jets here. Love them. Love them. Not Chad loves, but I do love them. Tennessee at Arizona. Oh, boy. So when I mentioned off the top of the show, this is the time of year where we've got these really, really, really bad teams and the models are going to light up. Take the Titans. Take the Titans. Take the Titans. And we got to make decisions about whether or not we're going to trust the models or trust our eyes. Arizona's 8 1/2 point favorite right now. It moved from 8 1/2 to 9 1/2 between Sunday night and today and then came back down to eight and a half. This stat is worth repeating. Titans are 3:18 against the spread. Since the start of 2024, the Brian Callahan era, we have not spent any time betting on the Titans, but we have not spent enough time fading the betting against the Titans. What does that say about us? Like, we know enough to avoid betting the bad team but not enough to bet against them. Are we victims of our inside info? Like, I don't know what to do here. I know that the side to bet is the Titans. I don't want to do that.
- [54:21]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. No. Titans are a team that when people say models are stupid and people overrate their models too much, this is the exact thing they're talking about. Because that's the issue with the Titans. Every week any model is going to be giving them the extra two, three points sometimes because they're quote unquote undervalued. And that's what sucks about them, where it's like they're not just because our computers say they are. The general public. That guy in the corner of the bar that just keeps yelling how much the Titans suck and he's fading them every week. He's been right. He is right about his hate of this Titans team because they do suck. I mean, I told you, I can't get over how good Cam Ward is. And even, even some of their own fan base starting to turn on a little bit, which I just don't get. It's like, dude, Cam, without him, you guys would literally have zero pulse. Like he feels like he's making wild plays that just other guys can't make. And this is going to be a professional side. This Titans team, I already know it. Arizona, even if we're just going the laziest metric, which is you look at their schedule this year. They started the season with the, with the Saints. They won 20 to 13 at the Saints. Then they came and played the Panthers. They beat the Panthers 27 to 22. Then they went to the 49ers. They lost 15 to 16. Then they just lost at home against the Seahawks 20 to 20 to 23. It's pretty simple. They have not beat any team by more than one possession or they've not lost by one more position. This is the Arizona team. That's what Kyler. I feel like that sums up Kyler's career. He's going to be 8, 9, 9 and 8 and every game will come down to less than a touchdown. Him winning or losing, it's just who he is. So the professionals taking that number and the Kyler trends is a favorite. He's terrible, right? Like I said, you only want to back Kyler as a dog. So I hate it. This almost got to 10, which is what I wanted. I was going to take Tennessee at 10. I'm looking now at a couple of books, very sharp books. They're already at seven and a half. So these professionals are suckers. They're suckers for pain. They're coming on the Titans once again bet it down. Let me get, Let me get Cardinals seven. I'd rather be there or seven and a half than anywhere on the Titans. So I hate this game. Happy to pass on it. Titans are the sharp side. No doubt the square side will be this Cardinals team and that's where I'm going to end up. And like again, we'll talk Survivor next week. Like this is. Feels like the exact type of spot me and Chad love back to Cardinals when we lose somehow to this Titans team. But I can't avoid it. This. Everything's so wrong. You go back and watch Titans tape. Other than Jeffrey Simmons, that defense is a disaster. Arizona is going to be able to run the ball here at will if they want with Benson. And the. Our only fear here is just Kyler Murray. Kyler Murray could screw us. I think that Seahawks game, that was the Kyler Murray game where he just doesn't play well enough. This is the type of game where he should bounce back, play well. So try not to be scared off of this one. Not. Try not to be on this Tennessee team. Whatever I can do. Lie to myself about back in this Cardinals team. I just. I can't get there. It's just. Once again, I get it. It's a Titan spot, it's a Titans number. But I just. That team looks like it's totally checked out on the set coach, right now.
- [57:32]
Chad Millman
Well, look, you just mentioned Seattle and that game against the Cardinals. Seattle's a 3 1/2 point favorite against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I don't. I don't really get what's going on with this number. It opened at two and a half. We really liked the Bucks at two and a half on Sunday night. Now it's three and a half. And I'm trying to figure out what the move is. Is it injuries?
- [57:54]
Simon Hunter
Injuries?
- [57:55]
Chad Millman
Todd Bowles was cryptic about Bucky Irving and needing an mri, and if that's the case, then it's sort of. It helps me walk away from this Bucks team because Seattle in every respect. We talked about the Rams being one of those teams that is grading out really, really high. Seattle at every metric, talking about passing the ball, talking about Sam Darnold, talking about handling pressure, talking about pressuring the quarterback, pressuring the quarterback without having a blitz. Like, both these teams are getting a tremendous amount of pressure on a quarterback. The Bucks getting the second most pressure, the Seahawks getting the seventh. But Tampa's blitz percentage is seventh highest. Seattle's second to last, which in this case is impressive because they're just not blitzing. They're getting pressure with their front four against the run. This Seattle team is as good as. As any the Bucks have seen. So I kind of get the two and a half. The move from two and a half to three to three and a half. Especially with the injuries.
- [59:09]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I think it's just injuries, but once again, I think this Seattle team just is highly overrated right now. And this is a Bucs great, great number if you just want to bet the under here. I also love the under. I think this is two really good defenses. The Bucks defense is being slipped on, in my opinion, just like the Seahawks were kind of being slipped on coming to the year. And people have kind of gained traction now on this team that they see what I see, that this is a really good defense with Sam Darnold. If he doesn't turn the ball over and he can do what he does in those fourth quarters, those insane drives which. What made him so special last year, The Vikings, Seattle would be a really tough out this year. They'll be a good team. They could easily replace the 49ers. All the injuries they've had as the biggest threat to this Rams team, this division. So statement game here for Seattle. They win this game will earn a ton of respect from me. We'll definitely give them a big bump in my model. And I just. I love it. Like, the Bucky Irving stuff sucks. Bucky is massive, massive weapon to this Bucs team. And the fact that he's going to MRI on his. I think, I believe it's his knee. Yeah, he's not going to play, in my opinion. If you're going to MRI on Monday or Tuesday, the odds of you as a running back playing on a, you know, Sunday on an away game just doesn't happen. So I'm with you with the pause here, but I'm looking at Hard Rock here in Jersey live. It is three and a half. I feel like a sucker once again because this is a sucker number. They're, they're get because they obviously they need the money on the books. That's the only reason they moved at that and they know guys like me will come in and take it. So interesting early movement here them to touch that three and a half and I'll take it here just in case Bucky gets cleared, Baker gets cleared. Obviously Godwin and Mecca Buka, if they're all healthy, I think this is going to be a tough test for the Seahawks team and they're being a little overvalued right now coming off such a big win on Thursday. So yeah, I'm going to, I'm going to be on that Bucks side. But like Chad said, with all the injuries, I don't know if I'm going to force it into our contest, let alone make it one of my favorite bets this week.
- [61:05]
Chad Millman
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- [62:54]
Simon Hunter
I'm shocked you don't love aside here why if Daniels comes back this is a good matchup for him as a running quarterback. I think he can give major problems to this Chargers team and their defense the way they play. And it's really does come down to him and Terry though. That's why like another game I could be patient on. I mean there's very few threes out there. Hard Rock was that three. They did move the two and a half. I'll be patient. To me this will be all Chargers money. People are going to be hammering Chargers. Especially if they think it's going to be Herbert versus Mariota. I like this matchup for Washington. I like the matchup for Washington's defense. I mean as much hate as I want to get a Bobby Wagner and coverage he is one of the best linebackers in Reading when to blitz and when when to stay back. And you know I knew they gave up a ton of points and you know they couldn't not stop the run last week against Atlanta. That to me was just a really bad spot for Washington and they looked just defensive like they're totally lost. This would be a get right spot against a Chargers team that those are huge injuries, right? Losing all. I mean they're top three offensive lines right. And I love giving Herbert a top a really hard time but he did have a ton of pressure in his face and he did not adjust well to it. So looking at this matchup I feel like this is will be a commander side especially if I can get the plus three right now Daniels does get cleared this could move to a pick like I just think these are two with the injuries to the Chargers right now I just view these as two very evenly matched teams and I'd make the with Daniels at home I probably would make Washington a minus three. Minus three and a half favorite over this Chargers team. So it's just strictly based off the injuries to the Chargers team. We've seen a lot of teams here just get really the whole team. It gets taken down a notch because of the injuries. You lose your number one tackle and then your number two tackle. How can you not act like that isn't a huge deal to this team that literally they use first round Picks on those guys. Their whole team was built around. I know we. Yeah, we all love Herbert. They were built around that offensive line. That was Harbaugh's identity. Right. They were going to bully you and that was. They were going to dominate you in the trenches. They're not that same team right now. They're not the same team we saw even against the Denver team. Like, they just are totally different now with all the injuries they've had. So, yeah, this is based on just the number. If this is plus three right now, I think you should grab that Washington based on my idea that I do think Daniels is going to play that I do think Washington's playing a little coy. Playing an extra safe with him last week, holding him out. I think he could have played last week. I agree with the decision though. Hold them out for this game. They could have stole that. When it gets Atlanta, I have a tough time seeing them steal this one with Mariota. There is a possibility Mariota has done well. They've moved the ball offensively, but obviously Chad's on the same page as me. We want Daniels, especially for Ben. Plus three with this Washington team.
- [65:33]
Chad Millman
Yeah. That's why I was sort of holding out. I didn't really have an opinion because. But just as you're saying this, it's a two and a half. Mostly I'm seeing one or two threes. So if you're listening to this and you can get Washington 3, it feels like a good idea right now based on what Simon is saying. I'm. I'm definitely going to take Washington at 3. Little taste just in the hope that Daniels is coming back.
- [65:57]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [65:58]
Chad Millman
Detroit at Cincinnati. Cincinnati right now is a 10 point underdog at home. It went from 8 and a half to 9 and a half to 10 after last night's Bengals bungle. We know the Bengals are really bad. We know Jake Browning has not been effective. I do think there are some differences though between how bad the Bengals looked and say how bad the Titans have been as comps. Right. The Lions to me are getting at least two points of road inflation here and they are also going to be missing DJ Reed could be out for the year. Terry and Arnold left the game with a shoulder injury. Yet to be known if he's going to be playing. He's also not very good. So they're going to be down one of their starting quarterback cornerbacks who is very good. The other one, we don't know if he's going to play. But imagine how bad the backup is if. If the Guy they keep starting is the one who keeps getting all the penalties. I think Amik Robertson's been great. I'm not discounting how good he's been for the Lions. But they're going to be in trouble in that secondary at their cornerback positions. Can't Jake Browning just fling it three or four times downfield? Jamar Chase to keep this game within 10.
- [67:27]
Simon Hunter
It's fair to have a question mark at the end of that statement. Just. But can he chat? Can he? Because I don't know if he can. But what are we supposed to do here?
- [67:36]
Chad Millman
We're supposed to take the Bengals.
- [67:37]
Simon Hunter
I know, that's what I mean. It's like you're supposed to take the Bengals. Three, four years ago would have been a no brainer Smash play. But we're in a new age. The public wins. The bookmakers don't adjust enough sometimes to these lines and this to me feels like it should be 13. Like the Bengals are a bad team. Me and you have never trusted their head coach. We've always had questions about him and I'd have to go back and look, but it felt like at one point T. Higgins and Chase had four targets or five targets. And it's like that's on him. You could say it's on Brownie, but it's like he's the one designing these places. So Chad's nailed it. It's like there's ways for the Bengals to attack this Lions defense succeed. But I don't. I'm not putting my faith in. There's one book still out there at nine and a half on this Lions team. I've taken any time I could get the number under 10. I've taken it on this line side. Even I knew it was going to be super public, super chalky. I just don't know if the books have adjusted enough to the Spangles team. So I'm looking forward to hearing if there's any professionals taking the Spangles side and what their actual reason is for it. Because this just feels the type of game where guys like me, professional guys who bet big money, why would I not put the lines into a bunch of parlays and their money lines into a bunch of parlays like I just did with Denver. It's like I just have no faith in this Bengals team. And I coming into the year, I had major questions about it. As soon as they lost Burrow, it's like, okay, this is going to be a train wreck of a season. Like Chad said, normally back in the day, the Bengals bounce back here. They bounce back with the backup that we fade alliance team that have had multiple weeks now of huge wins and they should regress. But I just feel like the Lions are rolling. Bengals just feel like everything's so bad meaning just the coaching disparity here just feels like it's worth another point or two that it should have been bumped up from eight and a half to nine and a half ten. So I, I, people could tell I'm just so out on this Bengals team and I know it's probably the side I should be on, but I'll take the line side here and I'll, I'll take the -9 and a half if you can find it. But like I Chad said it's going up like there's a bunch of tens ten and a halfs out there. So I mean Hard Rock right Now is at 10. So if that's your only choice, I guess you can be patient or take your money elsewhere but because I like the nine and a half just for the insurance purposes but man, in my model I have it honestly as a Bengals line I have it still at eight and a half. But I think my model is wrong. I think this Bengals team is just a disaster.
- [70:09]
Chad Millman
I am shocked to hear you so out on a team that is a double digit dog at home coming off a blowout with all world receivers and a team that's coming into Cincinnati that is missing their two starting cornerbacks potentially at least one of them that is coming off of two blowouts. Like the inflation is just so high in the Lions right now and it's so low on the Bengals. It's just astonishing to me to hear you almost sound defeated that you're taking the Lions in this spot.
- [70:42]
Simon Hunter
You know my favorite trend which hit with Dallas as a seven point dog against Green Bay. It's up to 21 and one now a seven point dog through the first nine weeks of the season against the spread is 211 the last three three years.
- [70:58]
Chad Millman
So is that at home?
- [70:59]
Simon Hunter
Yes, at home as a home dog of seven points or more through the first nine weeks of the season. So it hit again last week no doubter with Dallas, they fit this mold but I just, I can't get over what I've watched where like Chad is right the matchups are there but if you go back and watch the all 22 of that game, Brownie is missing wide open guys that terrible? Yes, like he is just truly terrible, horrible. So I don't know what to do with it. It's a great spot, a great trend. Like Chad's saying. It's painful though, but I'm on the other side.
- [71:31]
Chad Millman
There was a stat I read in a story on ESPN.com this morning about the Bengals. The Bengals have been bad forever. Like historically, they're a terrible franchise. The past couple of weeks have been their worst combined weeks in the history of their franchise. That's how bad they've been the past two weeks. So think about how bad the Bengals have been. People used to wear paper bags over their faces. For the Bengals, the past two weeks have been the worst they've ever had. That's how bad it's been. Yet I'm kind of interested. Yeah, I'm just going to say it.
- [72:02]
Simon Hunter
Stop settling for weak sound. It's time to level up your game and bring the boom. Hit the town with the ultra durable LG X Boom portable speaker and enjoy vibrant sound wherever you go. Elevate your listening experience to new heights because let's be real, your music deserves it. The future of sound is now with LG XBoom and for a limited time save 25% at LG.com with code fall25 bring the boom X Boom.
- [72:32]
Chad Millman
There's a lot going on in Hollywood. How are you supposed to stay on top of it all? Variety has the solution. Take 20 minutes out of your day and listen to the new Daily Variety podcast for breaking entertainment news and expert perspectives.
- [72:46]
Simon Hunter
Where do you see the business actually heading?
- [72:48]
Chad Millman
Featuring the iconic journalists of Variety and hosted by co editor and chief Cynthia Littleton.
- [72:54]
Simon Hunter
The only constant in Hollywood is change.
- [72:57]
Chad Millman
Open your free iHeartradio app, search daily Variety and listen now. Malcolm Gladwell here.
- [73:06]
Simon Hunter
I recently recorded the first episode of.
- [73:08]
Chad Millman
Smart Talks with IBM where I learned how AI agents are joining AI assistants.
- [73:13]
Simon Hunter
As a major productivity tool.
- [73:16]
Chad Millman
Let's start with AI agents.
- [73:18]
Simon Hunter
AI agents can reason, plan and collaborate with other AI tools to autonomously perform.
- [73:23]
Chad Millman
Tasks for a user. Brian Bitzel, an expert from IBM, gave.
- [73:28]
Simon Hunter
Me an example of how a college freshman might use an AI agent As a new student. You may not know how do I deal with my health and wellness issue? How many credits am I going to get for this given class? You could talk to someone and find out some of that, but maybe it's a little bit sensitive and you don't.
- [73:44]
Chad Millman
Want to do that, bissell told me. You could build an AI agent, a.
- [73:48]
Simon Hunter
Resource for new students that helps them.
- [73:50]
Chad Millman
Navigate a new campus, register for classes, access the services they need, and even schedule appointments on their behalf, which in turn buys them more time to focus.
- [73:59]
Simon Hunter
On their actual schoolwork. We can see patterns of how agents and assistants can help employees and customers and end users be more productive. Automate workflows so they're not doing certain types of repetitive work over and over again and streamlining their lives and making data more accessible to them 24 hours a day. To learn more about IBM's AI agents.
- [74:25]
Chad Millman
And how they can help your business, visit IBM.com agents.
- [74:32]
Simon Hunter
Ah, come on. Why is this taking so long? This thing is ancient. Still using yesterday's tech upgrade to the ThinkPad X1 carbon ultralight. Ultra powerful and built for serious productivity with Intel Core Ultra processors, blazing speed and AI powered performance. It keeps up with your business, not the other way around. Whoa, this thing moves. Stop hitting snooze on new tech. Win the tech search@lenovo.com Lenovo Lenovo unlock AI experiences with the ThinkPad X1 carbon powered by Intel Core Ultra processors so you can work, create and boost productivity all on one device.
- [75:11]
Chad Millman
All right, we gotta do a prime time spotlight. We're doing something new. We know you guys want to bet Sunday Night Football? Monday Night Football. They're island games. They're catnip for gamblers. They call out to us. Starting this week, we're putting a little spotlight on those games, even if they don't fit in as official plays. Because you want to bet them. We want to help you. Sunday Night Football.
- [75:33]
Simon Hunter
Brothers and sisters, the Patriots of our salvation. They are reviving the glory and the righteousness of 2001.
- [75:44]
Chad Millman
Have you seen it? New England at Buffalo. Buffalo currently an eight point favorite. It moved from seven and a half to eight. This is one of those where I want to back Buffalo. Like both of these defenses are terrible. We can say anything we want about Vrabel and this defense maybe getting better. You know, look what they did against the Panthers or whatever. But their coverage defense is truly awful. Buffalo was 29th. The pants Buffalo is 29, is 20th. Pats are 29th. According to. Pff. The bills run defense. That's pro football Focus. The Bills run defense is 29th. Pants Pats are 22nd. Every week I ask this question. Are we ready to commit to Drake may in a game that could potentially be a shootout at what is now a big number?
- [76:43]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And how can you not be super excited for a Patriots fan about Drake, man? Right. He's been really, you know, played really well this season, is beat up on bad teams, which is you want your good quarterback to do. And I look at this Patriots team as they're still six, seven Players away from being actually good, like they're.
- [77:02]
Chad Millman
Well, that's nothing. Six or seven players. That's nothing.
- [77:05]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it just feels they have so many holes still and like you said, defensively, you know, it just feels like they have so much stuff to work through. So I wanted to be on the Bills. I could not believe. I have to check. Yeah, it's still 50. It was 50 and a half. This total of this game. That was crazy. I know that Bill's defense is bad right now and Drake May is moving the ball downfield. I could not believe when I saw that total. That's. That is a classic Sunday night under bet for your boy Simon here. So I'll be interested to see if that number comes down to professionals hit this under on the 50 and a half because that just feels totally inflated because it's a Sunday night game. And the thing, what you said is so true that what's scaring us off is the Bill's defense, man, it's. It's really bad and they got major problems. But I think this is by far the toughest defense this season that Drake Mays faced. You expect them to give him some problems to be able to attack it. And you know, you've seen Josh Allen these exact games show up usually, especially after last week that he just did not look right. And they still almost covered that game against the Saints even on a bad day for Josh Allen. So yeah, this is going to be very public, very square this Patriots side. I think they'll be the one more big public dogs of the week just because this Bill's defense has looked so bad. And in people's minds, this is going to be an open backdoor opportunity for Drake May. So I'll be patient. Wait, I mean there's seven, seven and a half right now at Hard Rock. Can we get to 7? Can. Can this be bet down more? Because to me it just feels like the money will just keep coming on this Patriots team just because of the hook with that seven and a half or the eight and a half. Like the public is going to like that number. So another game. I do want to be on the Bills, but it's Tuesday. I'll be patient, hopefully get a better number.
- [78:52]
Chad Millman
You and I could not be in more agreement on that game. Okay, I'm super glad about that. I'd like to know if we're in agreement on this last game. Monday Night Football, Kansas City visiting the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are currently three and a half point underdogs. Simon. Simon. Chad Loves the Jacksonville Jaguars God damn it. Look, if it was two and a half, I'd probably say we'd take Mahomes. But it's getting harder and harder to ignore the Jags and not because like of, of Trevor Lawrence, who we both agree is probably the worst thing about this team right now. They're run blocking and their pass blocking elite amongst the top ranked by Pro Football Focus. The defense is not only creating multiple turnovers a game, which is, you know, part luck. So that could regress fourth overall to me. Could a revived run game and clearly their running game has been better with Travis Atn the past couple of weeks. Could they control a little bit of the Trevor Lawrence volatility against a run defense that is ranked 30th? And then I think like, emotionally are they emboldened by what happened in San Francisco? That was a game that two weeks earlier against the Bengals. They throw away. They came out, they made the right plays. They forced the fumble for Brock Purdy to clinch it. Liam Cohn goes after Robert Sala after the game. Like shows some fight gives this team some personality. Plus it's the right spot for the Jags. You're getting the hook at home. Why did you say oh no or God damn it when I said I love this?
- [80:59]
Simon Hunter
Because you were in the trust tree, right?
- [81:02]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [81:02]
Simon Hunter
Did you bet the Chiefs last week against the Ravens? Did you put actual money on the Chiefs last week?
- [81:08]
Chad Millman
No.
- [81:08]
Simon Hunter
I didn't think you did. So you just don't trust this Chiefs team and even though I told you it was my biggest bet, loved it. Told you that it was the spot of spots for the Chiefs, you still doubted it all week and even on Sunday you didn't put a single dollar on it. So.
- [81:21]
Chad Millman
Not a dollar.
- [81:22]
Simon Hunter
I think you're just too out on the Chiefs team and you're just totally blind spot here where Trevor. It's Trevor Lawrence going against a Spags defense. Isn't that the biggest red flag in the world to you that you just said he's been bad? I'm trying to go through his numbers here because like I, I know they won that game. I did think it was because Purdy just putting his team in bad positions, which Mahomes won't do. And you do have a Trevilla Lawrence again. It's a solid defense. I expected him to do bad. He was 21 of 31 for 174 yards and one touchdown. And again, not terrible. But he definitely wasn't the reason they beat that 49ers team. Right. It was the ETN, who was averaging 6.5 yards per carry. So I think you're right. Maybe I'm undervaluing this Jags offensive run scheme that has been so great at not making you realize how bad Trevor Lawrence is and kind of hiding his weaknesses. And on the flip side, their defense, they do have a pretty good rush. They are better than they've been in the past defensively. But I can't help but worry about a Jags team that they beat The Panthers, week one, they lost to a backup in week two against Cincinnati, barely beat Houston 17:10 on a fluky game. We both agree they probably shouldn't have won and then beat a 49ers team that is just decimated by injury. Now they're going against a Chiefs team that looked to me like they turned that page, that that was a springboard game where they had Worthy back, their offense was clicking. You saw defensively they got confidence back. So I. To me, it's just about the number. If you want to take the Jaguar three and a half. I agree with you historically, going against Mahomes, this is a good number. I am just terrified of this spot and I totally want to fade this Jaguars team that's 3 and 1. This just feels like Monday night game. Jags down 30 to 7 entering the third quarter. Just total train wreck by Trevor Lawrence who threw three picks. Like, I cannot believe you love this game. You're out of your mind making this your favorite bet.
- [83:17]
Chad Millman
I. Well, look, I didn't want. I really wanted it to be the.
- [83:20]
Simon Hunter
Jets, but like in the Jackson, we have to play with our contest because you're a psycho.
- [83:25]
Chad Millman
I'm a total psycho.
- [83:26]
Simon Hunter
And I can't believe you didn't love the Chiefs last week.
- [83:28]
Chad Millman
You're.
- [83:28]
Simon Hunter
You're missing it.
- [83:29]
Chad Millman
I know. And I. You know what? I honestly felt so sick to my stomach that whole Sunday afternoon. I'm like, are you freaking kidding me?
- [83:36]
Simon Hunter
Champs, man. The Chiefs. It's still the Chiefs. It's still got Spag, still got Mahomes, still got Andy. I. I get it. They look so bad, but man, I can't believe we're back in Jags three and a half. But I see where you're coming from. This is a good number. Jags have been playing well, maybe I'm being too disrespectful to them, but as soon as I saw this, I was like, oh my God, I'm getting the Chiefs right now. A couple books have met three. And I was like, that's. The alarm bell is going off. Because Chad's right. The professionals are coming on this jack side. They're moving this number down to three. So again, I'm not trying to give you too much. I think your read is right here. I just. From my standpoint, I'm just like, oh, my God, is this not. Is this not a terrible spot? The Jags history, they always get rolled in this game where we all start believing, start drinking the Kool Aid income. The Chiefs, the same old Chiefs who just. They just wear you out. That defense, man, they're just spags. It's just crazy how good. Because they look so lost early in the year. It's crazy on how, you know, four weeks in this seems like they've turned it around. And like I said, it just. Are we overrating this Jags wires team who've played a very soft schedule to start the year?
- [84:44]
Chad Millman
It looks like we're going to have our sharper square sharp versus square settled as well. All right, let's. Let's sort of.
- [84:54]
Simon Hunter
But I'm telling you, their sharp side early here. Is that Jack side.
- [84:57]
Chad Millman
Oh, totally. It's the hook. It's the hook. It's totally the hook. All right, so let's summarize here. I'm seeing Houston plus three and a half. That was Simon says. We're going to want to talk about that. Denver plus four and a half. We're going to want to get some intel. I bet that'll be in sharp calls. You know, New Orleans -2 is sort of a pass for me, but we can see how the line moves over the course of the week. Jets plus two and a half. It's moving to three. It's going to be hard to avoid that one. Tennessee plus eight and a half. I don't think we want to talk about it. Then we got the Bucks plus three and a half. You still like. We got the Washington plus three, which I think I agree with you. And then we got JAX +3/2, which clearly were on opposite sides. Yeah. And I'm sure some other games will pop up. Carolina minus one and a half is one more that I want to think about. I'm hoping that line will move a little bit more in our direction so we can get a better number on Carolina. But spicy. Spicy. I can't believe you called me out on that Chiefs game. How did you know?
- [86:04]
Simon Hunter
I just. Because I just know you where it's like I still couldn't believe going back, listening to our Sunday show, that I somehow I'm too nice. Sunday mornings, I'll be the first to admit that. I can't believe we didn't have that one in there where it's like I told you all week, that was one of my favorite big bets. And somehow I got pushed out. I'm like, there's no way Chad bet that. Why did he talk me out of that chief side? And I knew, I thought about it and I was like, once I got my sleep, I was like, I know Chad. Chad did not bet that Chiefs game.
- [86:29]
Chad Millman
Do you know what's so funny is I thought about it and like, we've been doing this show long enough together and we're genuinely good friends in real life. And so I know you well enough. Like, when you talk about some games in the way you say frame them, I know that it's a game you really like. And I was thinking about this after I didn't bet it, I'm like, oh, my God, I'm an idiot. Like, how did I not recognize how much he really loved this game and, like, not actually go all in on it? And I felt like an idiot. So it's funny to me that you just completely, completely called me out. So nice job, bff. Nice job. And I'm glad you were thinking about me and how I reacted to it also. So that means, you know, it's an equal relationship. All right, this has been Sharper Square part of the volume podcast network. We will be back on Thursday with the games we are zeroing in on plus our survivor pick. Our sharp versus square, which we know what that's going to be. Brass ball. So much more. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods. Wherever you get your pods. Rate, Review. Subscribe. Leave us. Five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Till next time. Love you.
- [87:49]
Simon Hunter
Stop settling for weak sound. It's time to level up your game and bring the boom. Hit the town with the ultra durable LG X Boom portable speaker and enjoy vibrant sound wherever you go. Elevate your listening experience to new heights because let's be real, your music deserves it. The future of sound is now with LG Xboom. And for a limited time, save 25%@LG.com with code fall25. Bring the boom. Xboom.
- [88:19]
Chad Millman
There's a lot going on in Hollywood. How are you supposed to stay on top of it all? Variety has the solution. Take 20 minutes out of your day.
- [88:27]
Simon Hunter
And listen to the new daily Variety.
- [88:30]
Chad Millman
Podcast for breaking entertainment news and expert perspectives.
- [88:33]
Simon Hunter
Where do you see the business actually.
- [88:35]
Chad Millman
Heading featuring the iconic journalists of Variety and hosted by co editor in Chief Cynthia Littleton.
- [88:42]
Simon Hunter
The only constant in Hollywood is change.
- [88:44]
Chad Millman
Open your free iHeartradio app, search daily Variety and listen now. Every day has a to do list, but adding Enjoy Belvita to yours can help you knock out the rest of it. Belvita Breakfast Biscuits are a tasty and convenient breakfast option when paired with low fat yogurt and fruit that provide steady energy all morning while Belvita Energy Snack Bites give you the perfect mid morning refuel.
- [89:09]
Simon Hunter
Best part?
- [89:10]
Chad Millman
They both taste great, so make the most out of your morning with a bite of Belvita. Pick up a pack of Belvita at your local store today.
- [89:19]
Simon Hunter
Ugh.
- [89:20]
Chad Millman
Come on.
- [89:21]
Simon Hunter
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