Sharp or Square: NFL Week 6 Reactions + Early Week 7 Bets

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman, Simon Hunter
Episode Date: October 13, 2025

Overview

In this episode, betting expert Chad Millman and professional sports gambler Simon Hunter recap their NFL Week 6 betting card, share sharp insights into the week's biggest games, and offer early leans for Week 7. True to their promise of “making squares sharper and making wise guys pay attention,” the duo breaks down the day’s wild stats, sharp/square angles, betting psychology, and the games they hit, sweated, or lost.

The episode features deep dives into marquee matchups like Chargers-Dolphins, Cowboys-Panthers, Browns-Steelers, plus offbeat trends, player performances, and a candid, banter-driven look ahead to the early Week 7 odds board.

Key Topics & Discussion Points

Betting Recap: Week 6 Picks & Performance

• Record: 3-1 on the day heading into Sunday night (Chiefs pending).
  • Winners: Panthers +3.5, Steelers -4.5, Raiders -4.5.
  • Loser: Colts -6.5.
  • Last-outs: Saints +3.5, Chargers -4.5.
• Closing Line Value: Emphasized the Chiefs pick (line steamed from -1.5 to -3 pre-SNF).

“We’re gonna break down the day and I think we feel pretty good about where we landed – three and one on the day.” – Chad (01:02)

Notable Game Breakdowns

1. Jets Incompetence & London Game (02:26)

• Theme: Jets delivered one of the most inept offensive performances in modern NFL history.
• Stat: Minus-10 total passing yards – lowest in 27 years.
• Simon confesses to lucking out with Denver in a Round Robin but “never in a million years should they have won that game.”
• Both bash the Jets’ organizational direction and ponder their unique ability to invent new forms of losing.

“They are just thinking and finding new ways to look incompetent and lose games.” – Chad (02:52)

2. Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers (+3.5) (04:15)

• Sharp Call: Both hosts leaned Panthers, noting improving defense and sharp money on them.
• Rico Dowdell's emergence:
  • Panthers RB goes for 183 yards rushing and leads team in receiving (4/56).
  • Hosts marvel at back-to-back 200+ yard games for an undrafted player.
• Cowboys: 31 rushing yards, offensive line issues, and confusion about Dallas’ ability to run.
• Fun Stat: Eight straight drives in the game without a punt.
• Betting implications: Hosts won’t chase Carolina as road favorites next week but note improvement, especially from Bryce Young at home.

“I honestly never felt like we were out of it. I felt like no matter what happened, we were gonna be able to keep this game close and have a little bit of a sweat and not feel like it was a dead bet at any point.” – Chad (04:53)

“Bryce Young plays better at home – whatever it is... he just looked more comfortable.” – Simon (05:58)

3. Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5) (09:26)

• Sharp Move: Bet Steelers early, got closing line value (moved to -6.5).
• Steelers' conservative game plan: Both see Pittsburgh as built to play it safe, leveraging defense.
• Mike Tomlin: Hosts praise his willingness to win ugly and keep quarterbacks out of trouble, but question how long that formula can last.
• Browns: Largely unbettable offense unless huge underdogs at home, entirely reliant on defense.

“Mike Tomlin loves to play conservative... He just wants his quarterbacks to not screw it up because... his defense is gonna be able to make plays.” – Chad (11:33)

4. Indianapolis Colts (-6.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (14:25)

• Tough loss: Didn’t expect QB Jacoby Brissett to light them up; unplanned Colts injuries in warmups.
• Jonathan Taylor: Hosts continue to be amazed by his consistency and explosiveness, despite the loss.

“You bet these big chalk favorites, you gotta be perfect.” – Simon (15:51)

5. Tennessee Titans at Las Vegas Raiders (-4.5) (17:43)

• Raiders defense stepped up; Geno Smith's two awful mistakes swing the game.
• Hosts express no desire to back either the Raiders or the Jaguars moving forward, feeling lucky just to survive with a win here.
• Endgame sequence described as pure betting stress – almost seeing a backdoor from the Titans.

“There are teams that I just want to take up the board...” – Chad (20:31)

6. Chargers at Miami Dolphins (-4.5) (29:25)

• Key Moment: Chargers blow a 13-point lead in the fourth; Herbert criticized for inability to close out games.
• Miami’s home-field “sun” effect referenced as a real physical factor.
• Smart money came late on Miami, and “the right side won.”
• Simon laments losing big, Chad satisfied they passed for contest purposes.

“You nailed this, because you said on the show – if this game is under 10 with half a quarter left, our bet is dead. And, dude, like, [the Chargers] were up 26–13 and then basically just gave the game away. What the actual freak.” – Chad (29:25)

7. Other Quick Game Hits

• Saints vs. Patriots: Drake May finally impresses as a pro, outdueled Saints in second half.
• Seattle at Jacksonville: Trevor Lawrence deemed “trash” by Chad, Seattle’s road form continues, Smith-Njigba breakout noted.
• Packers vs. Bengals: Packers criticized for lack of killer instinct and failing to put away inferior Bengals; Joe Flacco’s surprise effect highlighted.

Sharp/Square Angles & Betting Psychology

• Don’t chase trends: Hosts warily eye the temptation to stay with the “hot hand,” e.g., Panthers after two weeks’ profit.
• Line movement analysis: Often discussed in live time, especially with KC and Bears games.
• ‘Don’t fall in love with one-week results’: Especially re Packers, Raiders, Panthers, etc.
• Beware public perception traps (e.g., Carolina as a road favorite or Tennessee as a favored team despite being “terrible”).

Highlighted Quotes & Moments

Epic Jet Stat

“The New York Jets had minus 10 total passing yards... That is the lowest in, I think, 27 years in the NFL.” – Chad (02:26)

Rico Dowdell’s Emergence

“There's no model... That's like totally fluke... I think he's the first player in NFL history to have 200 yards from scrimmage in back-to-back games that was undrafted.” – Simon (05:08)

NFL Betting Sickness

“It's astounding how the NFL does this... puts us in this position where we want to now back a team on the road in a terrible spot that we've now won two weeks in a row with.” – Chad (07:48)

Steelers Formula

“It's working for [Mike Tomlin]... but it's not gonna work all year.” – Simon (12:39)

Chargers Exasperation

“Why can't Justin Herbert close teams out? It's kind of. It's getting ridiculous.” – Chad (29:25)

Shame, Shame Segment (36:35)

• Chad’s Shame: Chargers defense for surrendering two long, late Dolphins TD drives and losing a 13-point lead.
• Simon’s Shame: Colts defense for giving up repeated long 3rd downs to Brissett, labeling their effort “a total no-show.”

“That is shameful. Jesse Minter. That is shameful.” – Chad (39:33)

Heroes of the Week (40:01)

• Chad: Rico Dowdell, for his wild productivity and the Panthers’ creative playcalling (“almost all his carries up the middle, next-gen stats stuff”).
• Simon: Baker Mayfield, for his gutsy play and eye-popping improvisational moments keeping the Bucs in games (“I can’t get enough of betting this guy. It’s the best.” – 43:49).

Early Week 7 Leans & Market Insights

Timestamps indicate where the games are first discussed in detail.

• Cowboys @ Panthers – Watch for overreactions; won’t chase Carolina road fave (+ Jets next week, 08:26)
• Browns -1.5 over Dolphins (now -2.5) (14:14)
• Jags +3 vs Rams (neutral site/England, 49:32)
• Tampa Bay +5.5 at Detroit (47:56)
• Giants +7.5 vs Denver (home after Denver returns from London, 51:44)
• Chargers -1 vs Colts – reluctant, but line is “pro” (50:34)
• Philly -2.5 vs Vikings – injuries everywhere, possible value on Minnesota (50:34)
• Watch Bears/Commanders line movement sharp money (52:20)

Notable Timestamps

• 01:02 – Betting recap & overall feeling
• 02:24 – Jet's historically bad passing offense
• 04:15 – Cowboys at Panthers, Rico Dowdell talk
• 09:26 – Browns at Steelers; Tomlin’s style
• 14:25 – Colts-Cardinals loss; Jonathan Taylor stats
• 17:43 – Titans-Raiders finish & Geno woes
• 29:25 – Chargers-Dolphins breakdown
• 36:35 – Shame, shame, shame
• 40:01 – Heroes of the week
• 49:32 – Early Week 7 lines: Jags-Rams
• 50:34 – Spread shopping (Philly, Chargers, Giants, more)

Tone & Takeaways

• Candid, joking, self-deprecating banter: The hosts are honest about beating bad lines, getting lucky, or dodging bullets, while always poking fun at NFL absurdities.
• Education through example: Emphasizing sharp vs square plays, line movement, and why smart money moves late in the week.
• Obsessive focus on value and psychology: The show’s value is its look beyond the boxscore, showing what wiseguys look for in both player and market behavior.

For Listeners Who Missed It

• You’ll get a thorough vibe of the NFL betting week: what worked, what was lucky, what’s actionable for next week.
• If you want to ride sharp trends rather than public ones, the show models a process of “think, react, adjust” rather than simply chasing narratives.
• Player and coach evaluations are woven into betting decisions – especially with teams like Carolina, Cleveland, and the Chargers.
• Week 7 leans are planted early, but the hosts urge patience for ideal line value as the next slate sharpens.

End of Summary