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Sharp or Square
NFL Week 6 Reactions + Early Week 7 Bets - Chargers-Dolphins, Cowboys-Panthers, Browns-Steelers and more
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- [00:00]
A
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- [00:33]
B
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Bat. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. Very true. Today I am Chad Millman. I am joined by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff, Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [01:01]
A
Chad. How we doing, brother?
- [01:03]
B
Man, oh man, I feel like we're awesome because we're gonna break down the day and I think we feel pretty good about where we landed three and one on the day. We got the Chiefs minus one and a half later tonight. That line is steaming up to three in some spots. So we feel pretty good about the closing line value we got there. Our picks from today, the winners, the Panthers plus three and a half. The Steelers minus four and a half. The Raiders minus four and a half. They made it a little bit of a sweat. And then we have the Colts minus six and a half, which we lost. Um, our last ones out today were the Saints plus three and a half and the Chargers minus four and a half. So as always, we are exactly where we would be no matter what, what decisions we had made because we would have replaced the Colts with the Saints or the Chargers. We're going to get to all of our early liens. We're going to get to an entire review of all of our picks. We're going to get to our live comments from the chat. One thing I do want to say the most remarkable stat I heard today. Simon, are you ready?
- [02:25]
A
Yeah.
- [02:27]
B
The New York jets had minus 10 total passing yards, accounting for all the sacks and loss yardage on passing downs today. That is the lowest In I think 27 years in the NFL. Justin Fields was sacked nine times. He had nine completions in a game. The jets lost 13 to 11. We didn't bet it. We talked all week how we leaned jets plus seven and a half, but we didn't really have the guts to do it and to ask anyone listening or watching to do it. As far as putting it in the Contest. But Matt, they are, they are just thinking and finding of new ways to look incompetent and lose games. I don't know if you watched any of that game, you know, came on as we were doing our show this morning, but wow. Wow. I just, I don't even feel bad for him because it's so incompetent.
- [03:28]
A
Yeah, I bet it. And I got really lucky. I had the Denver money line in the round robin and never in a million years should they have won that game. Denver, no. Aaron Glenn experiment. It might be over on that flight back. He looks totally incompetent and yeah, just a disaster right now for the jets and the organization. And you're right, like we, we talked about that. It was just simply playing the number. I had zero faith in that jets team and Denver did everything they could to keep the jets in that game. So yeah, that was a game I'm, I'm glad it was in England. That's the perfect game for England. Yes, that type, that type of game. So yeah, the, the jets get the COVID Should have won in a million different ways. And I can't believe they're what, 06 now? So. Yeah.
- [04:16]
B
Dallas at Carolina. Carolina plus three and a half. Look, kudos to you on Tuesday. I was non committal. You were all in. You want to make this? Simon says. I came around. I saw the beauty in the play. We've now cashed a couple of tickets on the Panthers. Good for us. Like the game was kind of everything we thought it would be in the first half. Right. Like weather was not a factor. It was just pure offense. The defense was terrible. Nobody could stop anybody. Back and forth, back and forth, back and forth. Just a blast to watch this game because we, I, I honestly never felt like we were out of it. I felt like no matter what happened, we were going to be able to keep this game close and have a little bit of a sweat and not feel like it was a dead bet at any point.
- [05:09]
A
Yeah. And Dax, still playing out of his mind, gave us a scare there. But Bryce Young obviously played really well. But the Rico Dall thing, it's. There's no model. There's nothing that you predict there that's like totally fluke. A fluke. I think he's the first player in NFL history to have 200 yards from scrimmage and back to back games that was undrafted. It's like pretty legendary. Yeah, that's again, not something we accounted for. We did account for it just being an absolute shootout, two terrible defenses and yeah, surprisingly Carolina defense got the stop playing needed to like yes. Bryce Young went three and out. They pointed it to Dak and they held him and they got the ball back. And yeah the obviously the rest is history that you have the field got that field goal and it's, it sounds stupid because the sample size is so small but there's real evidence and it keeps happening. You saw a. Bryce Young plays better at home.
- [05:58]
B
Like yeah, yeah for sure.
- [06:00]
A
Whatever it is. I don't know. There's nothing we can really factor into it but he just looked more comfortable. Even when they're, they're losing. He kept getting the ball back. He just kept driving down the field and like we said Rica Dowell the run game. Yeah they got a real decision to make when Truba Hubbard comes back because he's, he's talented but this is, this is insane. Like, like again flash in the pan, who knows. But back to back games. 200 yards from scrimmage, just as fluky as that could be. It's not fluke if he does it back to back.
- [06:31]
B
Well look he, he. We've got a segment later in the show where I want to break down Rico Dow Dell because he's been so awesome the past two weeks. 183 rushing yards. Today he also led the team in, in receiving. I think it was four catches for 56 yards. And we're gonna, we're gonna go deeper on his success and what that how it sort of is indicative of some things that the Panthers have been doing. This is what I loved about this game. Eight straight drives without a punt. The Cowboys had 31 rushing yards. I don't know if you noticed but in the past 24 hours like all the, the buzz and the alerts you get at ESPN for various teams and the headlines should the Cowboys start thinking about re signing Javante Williams now because he's on a one year deal, he's going to be a free agent and he's been so amazing. 31 yards rushing today for the Dallas Cowboys.
- [07:33]
A
They couldn't, they couldn't block though. Again that's why this whole acting is crazy. I, I can't get around goodies playing with. They have. I think they showed the stat. It's like the most guys through five games on their offensive line have pretty much played in start for them since 1970.
- [07:48]
B
So that's like, that's what's crazy and that's why we like the game. Like it's one of the reasons we like the game. We thought the Panthers were getting healthier we like their D lines are terrible, you know, and we like the Panthers defense. I think it's been improving. There's metrics to show that it has been getting better again. Doesn't mean we're going to bet the Panthers, by the way, plus one and a half on the road next week against the New York Jets. It's astounding how the NFL does this. Right. Like, puts us in this position where we want to go now back a team on the road in a terrible spot that we've now won two weeks in a row with.
- [08:27]
A
Or I thought I just told you that deal with Bryce Young.
- [08:30]
B
I know we don't, but that's what I'm saying. Like, that's how they set it up. Like they are playing with our minds.
- [08:34]
A
No, they're playing with their. That's the public minds they're playing with. We're sharp. We're sharp, Chad. We won't get sucked in.
- [08:39]
B
We are very sharp. So.
- [08:41]
A
So we'll talk about. I'm in no rush to go get that jets number, though.
- [08:45]
B
I was going to say like in. In 25 minutes. Are you telling me we're going to be answering questions about should we be betting the jets at minus one and a half? Carolina outgained them by 120 yards. Had 12 more first downs. It shouldn't have been. It shouldn't even have been that close. Like, they really were just a much, much better team than. Than the Cowboys. And anytime the Cowboys started to run away with it or had a chance to. Bryce Young found a way to Bryce it up. The price is right. I just thought of that.
- [09:20]
A
That was again big time. Throws him in. McMillan getting more comfortable. I think it was his first game, the touchdown. He had two touchdowns.
- [09:27]
B
Yeah, yeah. He also had a bauble that led to a Bryce Young pick. Bryce Young was a baller. 4th and 2. They go for it. Love this team. Love them at home. We're going to talk a little bit more about Rico later. Cleveland at Pittsburgh. We had the Steelers minus four and a half. Got a ton of closing line value because this thing closed at six and a half. We had. We'd started betting the Steelers early in the week. I don't know about you, I want to get your take here. I kind of got the sense that the Steelers were going to be very conservative because they knew the Browns offense was going to struggle. It was 9:3 at half.
- [10:10]
A
A little bit. Honestly, I think it's just the Steelers offense, like Rogers, he's not gonna. He's Gonna always take what difference the defense gives him and he's gonna wait for them to make a mistake. And that's what it felt like. He missed a couple of throws in that first half, like you said, and it was really boring and he was patient.
- [10:26]
B
Yeah.
- [10:27]
A
But once him and DK kind of got into a groove, it's. That's the key for them. Like, DK is just such a big hit weapon. Anytime touches the ball, I could take it the whole way. So, yeah, that was honestly when exactly as we talked about how it was going to go. This is. They're putting this rookie in a brutal situation, a brutal spot. Maybe would have been it a little differently. Obviously, if it's Joe Flacco, like I thought he would be able to handle that travel short rest week better than a rookie. And you saw like that like so 9 nothing first half. I don't know about you, but I was like, there's no scenario. Even when they got the field goes 93, it's like, there's still no scenario. I think they're going to come back. So. Yeah, that's. That was pretty insane. Honestly, that was the.
- [11:12]
B
You know, before we came on the air, I felt like we didn't have a ton of anxiety in that early window. You know, the Panthers was a sweat, but the Panthers, I also felt like the whole time they were in the game, I never felt like we needed a miracle from the Panthers to cover. And the Steelers, they were just in control the whole time. I got a theory. I'm not saying like, oh, my God, the Steelers are going to run away with the division, but you just said something that I was thinking about earlier today. Mike Tomlin loves to play conservative. Right. He just wants his quarterbacks to not screw it up because there's no. He knows his defense in certain situations is going to be able to make the plays. And today they were like, when they were fully healthy, Alex Highsmith was all over the field. They had a really good game. Right. Aaron Rodgers, 21 to 28, couple hundred yards, you know, totally perfectly fine game. Didn't throw it away. When's the last time Mike Tomlin had a quarterback that he could rely on to really not make the stupid mistakes that would have to make his defense be playmakers, not just normal defensive play?
- [12:35]
A
Yeah, like I'm saying there, he's boring. Like you just said, it's. It's working for him.
- [12:40]
B
Yeah.
- [12:40]
A
But I think we're all on the same board where it's like, it's not going to work. It can't keep working all year. So like it's working like it did last year for them early in the year. It's gonna be interesting how teams adjust to this what they're doing with Rogers because like I just said, he's not pushing the ball downfield and it's working so well.
- [12:57]
B
Look, their best drive, their best drive after, you know, they had been struggling offensively. They got a fourth and four, they punted the ball, there was a roughing, the kicker, the punter, they get the first down. The rest of that drive is Johnny Smith a 10 yard run, Jalen Warren an 11 yard run, Jalen Warren a 10 yard run, a couple of non plays, Aaron Rodgers a 12 yard touchdown pass. Like that was sort of the classic Steelers playbook. Take advantage of penalty drive down the field with conservative play. Run the ball, don't make mistakes, keep Dylan Gabriel throwing it 52 times for three yards and attempt. Did you know that three yards an attempt, I mean that's, that's.
- [13:48]
A
Pittsburgh defense looked much healthier obviously in this game after the bye week. So gonna be interesting what they're gonna be like going forward.
- [13:53]
B
It's also going to be interesting with the Browns. They're kind of an unbettable offense except in the most obvious situations which is when they are at home as big underdogs.
- [14:04]
A
Just at home though, like at home against the Batman again they're. They're going to be an interesting team going forward because like you said, it's. Anytime we bet them it's. It's 100% faith in the defense, zero faith in the quarterback.
- [14:15]
B
Well, guess what we get to do this week? Talk about Cleveland as a one and a half point home favorite against the Miami Dolphins.
- [14:22]
A
Already two and a half.
- [14:23]
B
It's already up to two and a half.
- [14:25]
A
Yeah.
- [14:26]
B
Wow. Well, we're not going to talk about that then. Arizona at Indy. This was our lone loss of the day so far. Look like if. Whether. Whether we put Arizona and Indy in or the Chargers in Miami when we like the Chargers or the Saints and the Patriots where you and I just couldn't agree, like. Or the Jags and the Seahawks where you and I weren't on the same page, like there was no scenario here. We weren't going to lose this game.
- [14:58]
A
Yeah, honestly, it's tough beat. Brissette just played out of his mind and expected there. There's to be some fluky plays but like we joked about like when he's hitting 3rd and 18s and 3rd and 15s and there's just Guys streaking wide open. I think before the game, like the number one or number two corner of the Colts got a concussion and warmups, I think. Um, and Anthony Richardson hurt himself in warmups. Like very bizarre.
- [15:21]
B
He broke his orbital bone in warmups.
- [15:25]
A
Yeah. So, yeah, bizarre start to the game. You know, really felt like if Daniel Jones had his ace game, they probably would have rolled and blown him out. But he just didn't play well for the start of the game. Missed a couple of easy throws to a really bad pick and Brissette just made big time throws. Like you just didn't expect that out of there as an offense. And yeah, it's tough. You bet these big chalk favorites like.
- [15:52]
B
Got to be perfect.
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A
Yeah, you just, you can't really have the mistakes and you also, you can't have the other team always just in a weird number. Right there was either they were up by three or the game was tied and at no point it was like, okay, we need kind of a miracle here to cover a six and a half. And yeah, we just didn't bounce our way in that game. So fortunate. Like it's the one game that honestly going into, when you're picking through the games, it's like, all right, this one feels honestly easy because we're getting three points of value on it and just a bad number. We got suckered into it.
- [16:22]
B
Although one of the things that we thought the Colts, if we've been betting the Colts this year, it's been because of Jonathan Taylor. Like we talked about how good their offensive line is, how big they are. Jonathan Taylor once again, on one of their scoring drives early in the game, carried it five times for 53 yards, including a 14 yarder and a 30 yarder. We talked about earlier in the week how this guy has more 10 yard rushing plays than anybody in the league. Also they had a great stat in the game. He's one of five players to average 90 more than 90 yards per game to start his career. I think in his first five years or something like that. How amazing is that? It's like him, Eric Dickerson, Jim Brown, Walter Payton, like, you know, just hall of Famers. And Jonathan Taylor.
- [17:22]
A
His draft class. I don't think he was the first running back take. And I think the Chiefs, I forget the name of the guy. They took another guy, Ceh. I forget his name.
- [17:30]
B
Oh, oh, oh, yeah. Clyde Humphrey.
- [17:34]
A
Yeah, Clyde Edwards.
- [17:35]
B
H. Right.
- [17:37]
A
So that guy from lsu, as much as I like giving the Colts gm, that was, that was a nice draft pick.
- [17:43]
B
All right, we got to talk about Tennessee at Las Vegas. This was Chad's choice. I. I made the call this morning that we're going to put this one in and listen, Geno Smith is really bad.
- [18:05]
A
Yeah.
- [18:06]
B
Which do you think was the most incompetent play of Geno's? Because he had a couple back to back. Was it when he was pressured and threw the ball inside the Titans red zone directly to Cody Barton when they were up 173 and basically could have put the game away? Or was it when he tried to slide, I think in the next series and didn't slide and instead banged his knee and came limping off the field?
- [18:39]
A
I mean, they're all terrible. My favorite thing was they kept putting up his stats and it was like 20 to 3 or 17 three like you said. And he had like 46 yards passing.
- [18:47]
B
He did well.
- [18:47]
A
Look, just a train wreck of an offense right now.
- [18:50]
B
When we talked about this game, my breakdown of it was just give it to Ashton Genti, give it to Ashton Genty. Just run the ball. Like Tennessee is not very good at stopping the run. Take it out of Geno's hands. It really felt for a little while like Chip Kelly had totally listened to this podcast and was channeling everything that you and I had talked about during the week. At one point until midway through the fourth quarter, Geno Smith had not thrown a ball more than 15 yards downfield. Then he had one play where he threw it more than 15 yards downfield, converted a first down. The announcers all of a sudden are like, he's playing great. He's so efficient. They're doing such a good job. He's understanding that his mistakes are coming when he's dropping back and taking too much time. And Chip Kelly understands that. It's the mistakes that come when he's trying to get rece open downfield, make the quick throw, don't make it a decision for Gino. Literally the next play is when he's rushed, just dumps it into Cody Barton's arms like he's the only thing that would have kept that from winning that game. Great.
- [20:02]
A
You know, Raiders defense did step up. I think, you know, a bunch of times they needed big time sacks or big time plays. Overall, yes, they gave a lot of problems. Cam Warden, that trend about those quarterbacks, you know, that came word's going to join it of having these insane comebacks as a rookie and then losing by double digits. It held true. They lost by 10 in this game. So yeah, that was a unique spot to back a Raiders team that I don't know about you, but it feels like the Jags from last week, like, we got away with one here.
- [20:28]
B
Totally.
- [20:29]
A
I don't know if I feel like backing them at all. No matter what their number is the.
- [20:31]
B
Next week, I don't ever want to bet the Raiders again. I don't want. I don't want to. I, like, there are teams that I just want to take up the board that I feel like Gino will get right.
- [20:40]
A
He's just not right yet, like you said. And that's why I don't want to bet him. It's just, I can't trust them.
- [20:44]
B
The Raiders and the Jacks. I don't want to bet either of them anymore. I feel like we got our money, you know, we earned it. We, by the way, we did the right thing in fading the Titans. You know, it's always been scary for us to fade a team that is always, you know, is such a huge underdog, and yet we did the right thing. The Raiders did try to give it away, right?
- [21:05]
A
Like, oh, my God, I thought for sure we were getting backdoored at the end.
- [21:09]
B
I mean, like that back door for anybody who wasn't watching it. And the only reason you would watch it is because you had money on this game. Even though it was like one of three games. So if you can do a triple box through multiview, you might have had it on. It was literally the corner TV game. Like it was on in the corner of my television. End of the game, it's 4th and 15 from the Titans 2 yard line. And the Raiders don't defend the middle of the field. And the Titans throw a little dump off and the guy gets the first down. And then the very next play, they throw a long out to Van Jefferson. All of a sudden they're at the 50 yard line, like with a minute left, I'm like, are you, are you fucking kidding me that we're going to give up this game? And then Cam Moore fumbles the ball and they recover and it's over. But that one had me standing. It had me standing in front of the television.
- [22:01]
A
Yeah. And just, I don't know, the analytics stuff, like, Pete Carroll had the ball at the 36 of Tennessee. I don't get. Why not kick the field goal there, Go up right another three. Now you're up. You know, whatever that would have been 16 or 13, whatever it was. And it just, I was like, oh, my God, me and Chad are really gonna get this back door here. But, yeah, in the end it worked out.
- [22:19]
B
It worked out for us. All right, let's do a quick, quick word from our friends at Hard Rock. Cause I want to catch up on some other games that we didn't get into the contest. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. Week six wraps up with a Monday night doubleheader. Buffalo versus Atlanta and Chicago against Washington. Listen to these streaks from Hard Rock Bet Stats hub. You can find live odds to bet on all of these streaks in the Hard Rock Bet app. DeAndre Swift has scored a touchdown in five straight games against Washington. And Atlanta hasn't covered the spread as an underdog against the AFC in seven straight games. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet, there's still time for you to get 150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a $5 bet. And if it hits, you get not only your winnings, but $150 in extra bonus bets. There's new promos every day, so if you're listening to this later, just open the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week payable in bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 and over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida, call 1-833-Playwise in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9 with it. Gambling problem, call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia. All right, look, one of the most controversial games that we talked about this week was New England at New Orleans at three and a half. We left it out to save our marriage, frankly. And Drake May was great. He was just great. And Vrabel coached him up. And what did you see in that game? Did the Saints feel like the team that you thought they were going to be? Were the Pats better than you expected? Give me your take on that game.
- [24:25]
A
Yeah, I mean, honestly, the Saints felt like the right side. You needed Drake May to do something that I honestly didn't think he was going to do, which is play out of his mind. And what you did in that first half, he didn't do shit. Second half, two huge throws in the second half, honestly, I'll give him credit for that, were like third and eleven and a third and seven. They were really big time throws. But that first half he was making. These players are just like, dude, you. There's. There's no way this kid can make these plays, like out of the world. Moving in the pocket, just bombing it downfield. It would either be perfectly under thrown or perfectly timed on the receivers part where, like the defenders would just miss. It could just be the same. Secondary was just terrible at, you know, a lot of stuff they were doing, but tons of credit to Drake, man. Like that. That Bills game again, that felt like a variable win. He did some nice things with this Saints game. This was Drake, Mac. Like, this is the type of game that a top five, top ten quarterback wins. And again, I don't think he is that. So I was like, there's no way he's gonna be able to live up to the next game. And he did like that first half, you know, I think they. They got the two pointers. They scored 22 points in the first half.
- [25:34]
B
Yeah.
- [25:35]
A
Only scored three in the second. And that was the kind of the variable half where it was like, ben and don't break defense. Let Rattler make a mistake. And he shockingly didn't. It was a receiver that fumbled the ball and just sucked all the momentum out of the Saints, so. Saints as well. I think they only scored three points. I think it was in the fourth quarter. So, yeah, two teams that, again, they're not that different. I know public reception is. They're very different. But yeah, respected. Drake May like that was to me the most impressive half I've seen him play as a professional. Like his movement in the pocket when he ran the ball outside the pocket. All of it. Very impressive. So, yeah, good read by you. I'll give you credit on a bunch of things, Chad. You got that right. And task. I love tasks so much.
- [26:19]
B
No way.
- [26:20]
A
Yeah. And you gave it to me, like, early on, I was like, all right, what is chat? No, I'll check it out, I guess. And yeah, it's great.
- [26:27]
B
So good, right?
- [26:28]
A
It's so good. They got the accents right. And like, when I was really young, the most kind of country thing I would do is go to the quarries and swim in the quarries.
- [26:36]
B
Yeah.
- [26:37]
A
And they do it a lot on the show. Like all of it. Like, yeah. So, yeah, tons of props to Chad and Indiana Hoosiers. It's. It's.
- [26:43]
B
Oh, my God.
- [26:44]
A
It's all coming up chatter, dude.
- [26:47]
B
Yesterday I watched that game and I feel like I know what it's like for a second to root for a team that knows what it's doing that isn't winning miraculously, that isn't surprising me. When they win, I'm texting a buddy of mine who went to ut and I've been just making fun of them all season for how we're a football school. And, you know, it's sad for ut, but they'll make it back. And yesterday I texted him, like, dude, big win yesterday. I totally remember those days when we would have those big wins that we weren't expected to win and how good it feels like I'm rooting for you guys because Indiana, they're a football power. They're faster than they were last year. They're more talented. They were.
- [27:35]
A
None of it makes sense. Chad, it's your coach, dude. College football is crazy what the coach does.
- [27:39]
B
He is such a good coach, but.
- [27:42]
A
He is your recruits. It's insane what he gets out of these kids.
- [27:46]
B
Yeah, but if he stays, that team is just going to get better and better. Better people are going to want to play for them. The nil.
- [27:51]
A
See, I got a client who is a Penn State alumni and he was just joking in our group text. They're just going to fly him an airplane with cash in it.
- [27:58]
B
Well, listen, my biggest fear right now is that Penn State is going to go get Kurt Signetti, who's got Pennsylvania roots, and. And they're going to go get Malik Washington from Maryland. And so basically the only two college football teams I care about are then going to be starting over. That's it. Like yesterday on multiview, I had Maryland and I had. I had Indiana and like, they're both going to be gone next year. But Drake May, he'll be Drake May. Drake May. Just to put a period on that. To your point about how good he was, he was 5 for 5 with two touchdowns to start the game. Perfect passer rating in the first half, 11 to 13. 184. Three touchdowns, including a great throw to Boote for 29 yards and a touchdown with 31 seconds left. You're right, the Saints kind of kept it exciting. Vrabel, all of a sudden, didn't seem like the guy who we always kind of undercover in the second half because he was just trying to bleed that clock and not let his team give it back to the Saints.
- [28:58]
A
But he didn't want the turnover. And that's why I think he coached it right where he was like someone was going to blink. Someone was going to make the dumb play. And yeah, just a great punch out by the defender for New England right in midfield and totally flipped the game because the Momentum had shifted. Like you said, the New England wasn't doing anything. The momentum shifted. The Saints and we talked about coming to the year. Variable is going to account for two or three wins. He might get to three or four of those. Three or four. Like, it feels like he already has two wins this year that are variable wins.
- [29:25]
B
We set the line at two and a half and we bet the over how many wins he would be responsible for. Chargers at Miami -4½. Look good for us that we cut this one out, right? Like, we were clearly thinking more clearly when we took this one out. Even if we replaced it with the Chiefs. It's kind of the second time that we got got by the Chargers in the past couple of weeks. And you nailed this because you said on the show, if this game is under 10 with half a quarter left, our bet is dead. And, dude, like, the chargers were up 26, 13 and then basically just gave the game away. What the actual freak. Why can't Justin Herbert close teams out? It's kind of. It's getting ridiculous.
- [30:14]
A
Respect them because he did actually come back and win the game, Which I'm not gonna lie, I thought, like, what you thought? I thought they were dead. Like, I couldn't believe they'd given up that lead. This was definitely my biggest loss today. Like, I had a bunch of adjusted lines bet too, on this Chargers team and obviously feeling pretty good. Like Chad said, they're up 13, just fell apart defensively. Tough loss. And yeah, that was brutal. Like, you saw that number go from. I think it opened five, five and a half. And right before kick, it was three. Three and a half and a lot of books. So some really smart money came in on that charge again, that Miami side that they did well, that was a good read by them. It was. It was a. The classic, you know, Miami hot in the sun, team is worn out in the second half. And like you said, they. They basically scored the touchdown. And it's instant three and out by Chargers and their defense team to catch a breath back on the field, right down the field, another touchdown. And yeah, big, big deal to come back and win that game for the Chargers because like we just said, they're sliding right now. So you lose that game to a bad Miami team, it's just don't even think about division. You're thinking, just, can you get lucky heading forward and get a wild card? So huge, huge win for the Chargers.
- [31:23]
B
We'll have more on the Chargers and shame, shame, shame in a couple of minutes. One more game. Seattle At Jacksonville, really? I just want to point out that Trevor Lawrence is trash. That's basically it. Like, I'm kind of sick to my stomach that I never pulled the trigger on Seattle. I was nervous about the flipping and flopping and flipping and flopping, and then I passed because of all injuries to their secondary. But if I'm sick to my stomach about Trevor Lawrence, Liam cone has to be like, can I please get out of this contract? Do you agree with me or disagree that Trevor Lawrence is at this point an impediment for this Jacksonville Jaguars team?
- [32:06]
A
I don't know the thing, because there's like. There's also moments where he'll make throws. You're just like this. This guy has an insane amount of talent.
- [32:13]
B
Insane talent. But I just don't think.
- [32:15]
A
Like, I know if I'm the head coach, I hate him. He drives me crazy. But now they're stuck. Like, it's just. It's like Miami with Tua. It's like, what are you gonna do? You didn't even get hurt or just have a total tank of a season. Get a different quarterback just because. How many times can a Baker Sam Darnold situation happen? These things just don't happen. Usually they turn into what Geno Smith has turned into. So, yeah, they're in a tough spot with Trevor. It's like we see the potential. You're right. It's. He's hindering that team. That defense played well enough to win today. Jackson, Smith and Jigba in our lost tapes, I gave him out to lead the league of 35. 1. And I never predicted that he would actually be in the running to lead the league in receptions with Sam Darnold. My God, is there chemistry out of this world right now? They just. I think he had 30 points of fancy football today. Just. He's out of control how good he is.
- [33:07]
B
He's so good.
- [33:08]
A
He felt like he won that game. Like he was just the difference, you know, Brian Thompson Jr. Tried to match it. Had an insane touchdown call back on a really bad penalty. And yeah, they just. Seattle, this is an interesting team. Like, all the trends for them on the road, they're just a different team on the road for some reason. They're just a covering machine.
- [33:27]
B
Yeah, I'm going to want to talk about Seattle. It's an interesting line for them coming up next week. What do you think is wrong with the packers right now? That offense, I thought they would destroy the Bengals. The Bengals have been a terrible defense all year. The packers should have run the ball 50 times and gained 800 yards and scored 72 points against this Bengals rush defense. And they could never pull away. They like the Bengals stuck around. The packers could not get any offensive flow. They don't look very good.
- [34:02]
A
No, I'm, I'm part of the problem. I think I just like a lot of people, I've overrated them based off the one game. And it happens in football. We see a team play potentially their best game of the season, week one, against a really talented team that we had a high, higher expectations for. And yeah, it couldn't. Like they felt like they play with their food in a lot of ways with this game. Like they, they could have pulled away and they could have made bigger plays and they just do enough to win. They're an interesting team. Like even golden, him getting more comfortable in that offense. I see that being a huge lift, that offense. Like if you can have a reason for those two safeties to stay up high, that could change everything. Because you see their best weapon is Josh Jacobs. Like his, the run game, the way he runs so violently and so hard. It feels like when he's going, that's, that's when the offense is going. And you know, Jordan Love, when he uses his legs, it looks right and he is good. But like you said, they just, they don't have that killer instinct, that killer mentality and they let teams hang around and they easily could have lost that game. Like there was an opening there for a split second and no, Jordan Love stepped up, made some big throws and yeah, that's a team. I think all of us just all overrated because of week one. And I still think they're really talented team. I just don't think they're that highest level super bowl favorite juggernaut team that we all were. Like, oh my God, this defense with Parsons is going to be incredible. And now we're after week six, I think all of us are just like, okay, they're a mid tier defense. They're not the cream of the crop like Seattle.
- [35:36]
B
They're actually not even forcing the takeaways they did this year. They're actually less explosive on defense and more vulnerable. They're giving up more yards. They're looking like they don't know really know how to put teams away. Like you said, offensively or defensively. Another interesting team to watch because like, you want to bet him so bad. Like I know we both took a taste. You had the packers outline minus six. What a squeaky bet that turned out to be. But boy, I was Just hoping for a push there and then lost all, all hope at the end.
- [36:13]
A
And Joe Flacco, give him props. Joe Flacco for coming in flying commercial. Man look good. Man look good. So I don't know, it's gonna be interesting handicapping this Bengals team going forward because he was a difference in this game. Like, you saw Chase have more confidence, you saw Higgins have more confidence. That's. That is. That was something very noticeable in that game. So, yeah, they're going to be interesting going forward.
- [36:35]
B
Since it's the Bengals, I'm surprised they even flew them. I thought they just figure horse and buggy or something. All right, let's do shame, shame, shame, shame, shame, shame. On the Chargers defense, I'd love to blame their O line, I really would. Which gave Justin Herbert no, no help at the end of the game. But in the fourth quarter, the Chargers were up 26 to 13. Their defense then allowed a nine play, 69 yard drive and a 13 play, 80, 82 yard drive to take the lead. In those two drives, the Dolphins only had three third downs. So we're talking about 22 plays. All of them were first or second down, except for three. All of those three downs, all three of those were third and short. The defense could not come close to getting off the field. Like, was it all of a sudden they couldn't scheme? Was it. Like you said, it's the end of the game, it's the heat. I don't know. Give me your take. Because this team keeps finding ways to give away opportunities.
- [37:53]
A
I just, I mean, it is injuries, but I just think it's. That's the Miami sun. Like, you get down there, it's late in the game and they just didn't have their legs. Like I said, you give up that long touchdown drive and then you're right back out there. After three plays, it just. The Chargers going through and out there killed him. So I'm with you on that one. My shame is pretty much the same thing. My shame is this Colts defense, Verset threw for, I believe 300 yards or 320 yards against them. The craziest thing was him on third downs. He was 9 of 14 on third downs against this Colts defense. And it's like, okay, if it was third and twos and third and fours, short field, short, you know, short yardage, it happens. But These were like 3rd and 10s, 3rd and 15s, 3rd and 18s that they were giving up wide open. Just really lazy zone defense just didn't make sense. Like Marvin Harris went out very early in that game, they don't want to play man to man with receivers after a team's number one's out. Just bizarre game plan by this Colts team. And again, they're so lucky their offense is so talented that, you know, Daniel Jones didn't have a great day. But like you said, Jonathan Taylor, averaging almost six yards per carry, he's just an absolute game changer for this Colts team. So, yeah, for me, the shame, it's got to be that Colts defense, just a total no show for us today.
- [39:13]
B
Yeah, I was actually going to go with the Colts defense and then decided I was just angrier at the Chargers because we had a good chance. Like, we never really had a chance to cover with the Colts. And we did have a chance to.
- [39:24]
A
Cover because their defense. So, like, you put up 31. You're telling me that defense can't hold Brissette to 20 points? They're giving up 27 points to him. It's crazy.
- [39:33]
B
Oh, totally. But, like, that was back and forth the whole time and like, come back to get to that 31. Whereas the Chargers, there were eight minutes left in the game, six minutes left in the game when they were up 26 to 13, and they still found a way to have to win it in the final seconds. That is shameful. Jesse Minter. That is shameful. All right, I know who your hero of the week is. We don't need another hero.
- [40:02]
A
We don't need to know the way home.
- [40:06]
B
I'm gonna give you mine, but there's one game we got to talk about that you were on all week that is going to be your hero of the week. Mine is Rico Dowdell, 30 carries, 183 yards. Here's what's interesting. I looked at next gen stats. I looked at the rush chart in next gen stats, which is really, really cool. All but four of his carries were up the middle. If you look at the chart, I'll draw it with my hands here. Get him really high. Like everything was between the hash marks, you know, between the tackles, basically, except for like four runs that were really out wide. It's like a big U. Here's what's interesting about that. Also, I mentioned before, four receptions, 56 yards, team high the week before. He had 260 yards on 23 carries. All but two of his carries last week went to the right side. So how cool is that? That back to back weeks he goes from everything to the right side to everything up the middle. That, to me, is why we were betting on the Panthers this week Dave Canales is a really good coach and he's scheming up really good game plans for his offensive line to take advantage of weaknesses. Last week, Miami, this week, the Cowboys. We know they're not very good defenses but a lot of times coaches don't take advantage of that and he did. I think that's awesome. That makes Rico Dowdell the Panthers offensive line and Dave Canales my hero of the week.
- [41:40]
A
I'm gonna go with Baker. Yeah, I just looked at that line all week. I wish I had the balls to just make us put in the contest. But it was minus three and a half and I said if it was minus two and a half would been a no brainer. But I just was. I didn't get the line and the hook scared me off. Honestly where it's like the books must know something here. They didn't. That was a horrible spot for this 49ers team. And in another world they sure Fred Warner plays that full game to cover it but you know a Mecca Buka goes out. Yeah, doesn't matter.
- [42:10]
B
Baker, they lost another offensive lineman.
- [42:12]
A
Yeah, I think they're on their third right guard or third right tackle or something crazy like that. We talked about like that play the anticipates of Baker, it's third and 15. He avoids a sack, you know, makes a move, avoids another tackler, then fights through one more tackler and reaches out with the ball to pick up the first down. Next play, absolute bomb up the seam to a guy named. I think his name's Tez. Like yeah, total no name and guy makes an unreal catch. He's doing like backflips and shit in the back of the end zone and. And Baker's just yelling in dude's faces. He's going absolutely mental after it. And it's like people can keep down it, they can keep trying to fade it. This was a huge pro spot. The pros basically the book is out where Todd Bulls defense cannot beat Shannon's offense. Like you go through any time they've ever played against each other. Shane doesn't matter who the quarterback is has dominated this matchup and it was looking that way once again like they were moving the ball with Mac Jones.
- [43:11]
B
Oh yeah.
- [43:12]
A
Mac Jones though making throws like insane throws. But you know you saw it the eventually he was. It was going to catch up to him. Right. He's just, he's a gunslinger. He's going to put the balls in crazy places. And yeah, the defense stepped up, obviously made the plays but at the End of the day, it's just Baker. Incredible. I think they won by 11. Yeah. Crazy. Crazy. Like, this is a team that, like we just said, Mecca Book was out for the rest of the game. Like, they just have these huge injuries right now. This. This Bucks team, they keep winning. So, yeah, it's. I don't know if we'll bet him next week, but I. Honestly, Chad, I can't get enough of betting this guy. It's. It's the best.
- [43:49]
B
It's. It's unreal. And that play you're talking about, the back to backs, that third and 14 that he converted, he had two guys on his back in the offensive backfield. He escapes. He totally, like, dekes a guy. And then he dives to get the first down, stretches his arm. He's stretching his arm as he's falling. Like, he knows exactly. He's, like, looking down the line. He knows exactly where the first down is. Guess the first down. That next play, that was improv. Like, the dude, the receiver broke off his route and Baker just lofted one. It was one of those perfect NFL films balls. Like, you'll hear the sound and then it just drops down and the guy catches the back end of it. Glorious. They are a mature, physically powerful squad.
- [44:42]
A
With a special confidence that allows them to reach for heroism instead of merely trying to avoid mistakes.
- [44:51]
B
Baker's impossible not to love. Impossible not to love.
- [44:54]
A
True.
- [44:55]
B
Like his MVP odds are gonna have to be the shortest when everything reopens in the morning. Like, he's just flat. Ballin, Baker, Ballin. The freaking best. It's gonna be a shame. It's gonna be a shame. When? Next week. We gotta talk about betting against Baker Mayfield. Those were our shame, shame, shames. And our heroes of the week. Let's recap real fast before we get to comments and liens. Saints plus three and a half. That was Simon says. Chad loves the Raiders minus four. Brass balls. The Chargers minus four. Rock and a hard place. It's tonight. Chiefs minus two and a half. Sharp versus Square. I had Carolina plus three and a half. You have the Chiefs minus two. Favorite parlay. Raiders cashed. Steelers cashed. Colts cashed. Chargers cashed. Pack minus six, cashed. Who lost? Simon. We had one team lose.
- [46:01]
A
Eagles.
- [46:01]
B
Philadelphia Eagles.
- [46:03]
A
But I thought that was only if you were able to make it. What was the other one we had in there?
- [46:08]
B
I think that was.
- [46:09]
A
It was the Raiders. No, because we said we weren't going to use it. I said we gave out six because I said not enough people would hear the The Eagles.
- [46:15]
B
Right. That was the six. So it was the pack. Minus six was the other one.
- [46:19]
A
Oh, okay. Okay.
- [46:21]
B
Underdog parlay was. Saints lost, Panthers won. Detroit. That don't know yet. Seahawks who were plus one and a half at the time, they won. Bears tomorrow night. Survivor was packers barely got by. Okay, a lot of questions. Obviously we got to talk about next week. Mike Vrabel, I think he's a five and a half point favorite, no six and a half point favorite on the road at New England. I mean at Tennessee, rematch game. I mean, what do we do here? What's our plan? How do like, you know, how do we not bet Mike Vrabel? How do we not bet Tennessee? This is a question from Jags, by the way. J, A G, Z.
- [47:15]
A
That's fair. Honestly, as soon as they sell the number, it's just like, don't we have to bet New England? There's no reason for us to trust Tennessee.
- [47:23]
B
There's none. They're not good enough. They're terrible.
- [47:27]
A
Like again, this is just going to be sick to the stomach because yes, this number is inflated, but is it? This is. This Tennessee team is so poorly coached and their offense looks so lost unless they're running a two minute drill. So that's fair if you want to grab that line early.
- [47:41]
B
Tampa Bay is a. I just want to get this out of the way because we just talked about it. Tampa Bay is a five and a half point underdog at Detroit next week. It's a Monday night game, part of the Monday night doubleheader.
- [47:56]
A
I don't have to deal with it because I remember, I think it might have been two years ago. Baker was like a nine and a half point dog against this Detroit team in the regular season and he went in there and he beat him and it was like incredible. That was when he had Godwin and Mike Evans as receivers. Not these no name guys.
- [48:13]
B
Right.
- [48:13]
A
And you know, it's how long can this keep going? So I, I don't know what to do. I kind of want to take Detroit and I assume that they, they get smoked tonight and then they take it all out on this Bucks team. So I don't know what to do with it. My, my early incline is to take Detroit. That's a good Detroit number.
- [48:32]
B
By the way, Allison Norris was the one who was asking about Baker mvp. Like of course his odds will you have to expect who else at this point could be leading or have the shortest odds for mvp?
- [48:48]
A
Yeah, I blew that one like there he, he was 11 to 1 when we came on Sunday and I put it in my notes last week to say something. Totally blanked on it. And by the time we did Tuesday show, he was already down to 8 to 1. Yeah, apparently that was still good enough because like you said, I think he's gonna be the favorite now. The only person I could see still being the guy back up there would be Josh Allen if he wins, obviously tomorrow or if golf wins tonight. I could see him if he has a big game tonight against the Chiefs, being the. Being up top there.
- [49:17]
B
Oh, that's interesting. All right. That's really interesting. Cleveland, as you said, it's now at two and a half, two and a half point favorites over Miami.
- [49:27]
A
This is just a hard rock. I should say that for everyone.
- [49:30]
B
I see it at 2 elsewhere.
- [49:32]
A
Yeah.
- [49:32]
B
But definitely moving in that direction. What do we think of Jacksonville as a three point home underdog against the Los Angeles Rams?
- [49:42]
A
I mean, obviously, you know what to think. It's the professional side, the Jags. But I don't know.
- [49:49]
B
I mean, in the light of day, we're going to walk away from all this. Jacksonville never bet him again. Right.
- [49:56]
A
We should here this is.
- [49:57]
B
And we're gonna bet that. We're gonna bet the Jacks.
- [50:00]
A
Yeah. I'll be patient though. Maybe I'm gonna be nice and give us the hook. Maybe we get that three and a half. But I do not think the Rams are three points better.
- [50:08]
B
By the way, that game. That's it. That game is. Is overseas. That is not a game in Jacksonville.
- [50:14]
A
Back in England again, another England game. How many of these we got? NFL. Oh, my God.
- [50:18]
B
Well, listen, we're expanding, happening. It's a global. It's a global business.
- [50:22]
A
Well, Jags, they dominate England, so that's even more of a reason to like the Jags.
- [50:25]
B
They're basically the London Jaguars.
- [50:29]
A
Yeah.
- [50:31]
B
Who else are we looking at right now?
- [50:34]
A
I mean, we haven't talked much about Philly, the shit show that is Philly right now. Minnesota's plus two and a half. Carson Wentz. I mean this, this would be rock bottom for a lot of Eagles fans. Of course it won. Smokes us. But that's an intriguing number. Honestly, just because Quinion Mitchell might be out, Carter might be out. Those are easily the two best defenders on the Eagles defense. And without them in the secondary against Addison Jefferson, that could be a real problem for that Eagles team. Chargers. I know we talked about staying away from it. It's just another pro line. They're minus one against this Colts team at home. Once again, Be patient. But I know everyone. I'm sick too. I don't wanna. I didn't have to bet the Chargers, but this is. This is a Chargers line, honestly. So that's another one that jumps out where I'm hoping I can be patient. Public comes in on the Colts and I get Chargers at like a. A nice dog number. Yeah. Interesting. That one popped out and last one that I really just jumped out to me just because it's. It's interesting. That's where they opened it. The Giants are plus seven and a half against Denver.
- [51:43]
B
Yeah.
- [51:44]
A
So that's Denver playing international coming home to a home game. Well, that's nice. But they're playing against a rusted Giants team that I think a mobile quarterback you didn't see with fields today. But I think that type of style can give a type of defense like Denver real problem. So interesting. The books are still giving you the hook at seven and a half a year at Hard Rock. So that's just a number I'll grab early in case professional money does comes in. The Giants. I bet this under the seven. So you saw it today. The. Denver closed all our books at six and a half today. So, yeah, you know, it's interesting that books open that to get Giants money because they know how much Denver money will come by the public.
- [52:21]
B
We're getting a lot of questions right now and we talked about this right before we came on air. The line on the Bears game has moved from Washington - four and a half to Washington - five and a half. We didn't get a chance to really dig in on why that's happening. It's been happening as we've been on the air. Really, I'm not understanding the move. I don't know of any injuries that have been reported in the last hour or so. In fact, the Bears were going into the game really healthy. And we know that Debo might be out. We know Terry McLaurin is out. What are you making the move?
- [52:55]
A
It has to be injured and there's something we're not. I know that you guys announced a bunch of players that are out. So yeah, like we said, I. I couldn't believe when we logged on here, we're looking at early lines and that number was up to five and a half, so. So I'm just thankful we didn't put in a contest because I would be hurting right now.
- [53:10]
B
Really, really thankful we didn't put it in the contest because I'm really glad we have the Chiefs. They're saying the Bears left tackle is ruled out. But okay, that doesn't actually make sense. That can't be right, because the Bears announced that left tackle Braxton Jones was not going to be starting, and it was going to be a guy who had been getting a lot of snaps and have been playing on the offensive line. And it was this dude who Braxton Jones barely beat out in training camp, so that can't be the reason. Unless all of a sudden that guy is out too. But then Braxton Jones is playing who's been the starting left tackle, so I'm not sure that makes any sense. So we're not really getting good intel at, you know, this time of night on Sunday as to why that line is moving yet.
- [53:55]
A
We've been saying all week, though, that clearly the professional side is the commander side, so just clearly be careful.
- [54:01]
B
It's clearly a professional side because it had all week to move from four and a half with all the news about Washington's health and all the news about the Bears who were coming back, and instead it's moved in the opposite direction. So something's going on. Finally, just to remind people we're three and one heading into Sunday night, we got Kansas City minus one and a half tonight. The line is currently two and a half. We've been liking it all week at one and a half, at two even at two and a half.
- [54:31]
A
And if you didn't bet it, if Detroit drives the field here and scores, take the Chiefs live. You'll get a great number.
- [54:36]
B
Exactly. We won with the Raiders minus four and a half. We won with who else did it? The Steelers minus four and a half and the Panthers plus three and a half. We lost with the Colts minus six and a half. This has been Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock bet, part of the Volume Podcast Network. We will be back with our next Sharper Square on Tuesday. To go over the entire NFL slate, watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Also, download us from Spotify, Apple Pod, wherever you get your pods. Rate, Review, Subscribe, Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you. Ever go to make nachos on game.
- [55:22]
A
Day and realize the cheese is missing? Or the chips or both? It happens all the time. But check it. Walmart Express Delivery gets what's needed in as fast as one hour. One hour, people. And it's not just food. It's phone chargers, pet supplies, toilet paper. Try it now and get free delivery on a first order with promo code Express. Walmart Express delivery in as fast as 1 hour. Promotion valid for first express delivery order $50 men subject to availability restrictions apply.
- [55:53]
B
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