Sharp or Square — NFL WEEK 7 Bets Breakdown

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman (A), Simon Hunter (B)
Original Airdate: October 14, 2025
Episode Theme:
Chad and Simon, a top sports betting journalist and a professional bettor, dissect the NFL Week 7 betting slate. Their goal is to help listeners become sharper bettors by analyzing spreads, trends, and matchups, determining which bets are "sharp" (wiseguy-approved) or "square" (public favorites). The focus is on key matchups, market movements, and “contest” picks that offer the best value—often on the sides that feel toughest to stomach.

Main Topics & Game-by-Game Insights

1. Betting Recap & Mindset

• Chad and Simon open with a quick recap of their results (4-1 on favorite picks last week; 19-11 through six weeks — [04:28]).
• The conversation’s tone is energetic, practical, and occasionally self-deprecating: “I got to get up in the morning and exercise. I don't have time for staying up till midnight every night for sports.” — Chad, [01:12]
• Simon stresses that, as a professional, he “skipped” certain ugly games: “As soon as I saw this one, it's like, don't even waste my time. I'll take a side… but with very, very small amount of confidence.” — Simon on Bengals vs. Steelers, [06:05]

2. Game Picks & Betting Angles (with Timestamps)

Steelers at Bengals (Thursday Night)

• Lean: Bengals +5.5
• Reasoning: Tomlin as a road favorite, especially -5 or more, is historically bad ATS. Both hosts lean Bengals but with low confidence due to uncertainty at QB for the Bengals (Joe Flacco now starting).
• Quote: “Mike Tomlin as a favorite of five or more on the road: 19 and 29. We love a rah-rah Mike Tomlin spot—this ain't it.” — Chad, [05:30]

Rams vs. Jaguars (London, Int'l Game)

• Pick: Jaguars +3 / 2.5 (line moving)
• Reasoning: Rams have struggled in close games; Jaguars are well-suited to the randomness of London games.
• Analysis: Both think the Jags are “pretty equal” talent-wise, catching points makes them the side — “This is a Jags line... I was shocked that it was three. The movement makes sense professionally.” — Simon, [09:03]
• Note: Trevor Lawrence is still a wild card: “He is the problem on this team.” — Chad, [12:23]

Raiders at Chiefs

• Lean: Raiders (+12 or higher)
• Take: The number is inflated; division underdogs historically cover vs. Chiefs at big numbers. Wait to see if +13 appears.
• Warning: “Just stinky, stinky game here. Dude, plug your nose.” — Simon, [15:53]
• Matchup Note: Raiders' run game might exploit Chiefs' weakness; Max Crosby a potential game-wrecker.

Dolphins at Browns

• Pick: Browns -2.5 (Chad’s Choice)
• Rationale: Browns defense dominates at home; Dolphins rush D and pass-blocking are both weaknesses.
• Quote: “You can't run from who you are... You've made your choice, and it's the Cleveland Browns.” — Simon, [20:34]
• Line Note: Grab -2.5 quickly; might move to -3, despite juice.

Saints at Bears

• Lean: Saints +5.5
• Theme: Bears are overvalued after squeaking out close wins; Saints have strengths in the run game the Bears struggle to defend.
• Criticisms: “You're 3 and 2? You should not be 3 and 2 … You're not a good team. But you have a good coach, a quarterback that can make plays, and you're getting bounces going your way.” — Simon, [27:30]
• Expect line movement, wait for the best number.

Eagles at Vikings

• Pick: Vikings +2.5 (Simon Says pick)
• Analysis: Eagles are overvalued, banged-up, and missing key defensive pieces. Vikings, with offensive weapons, match up well.
• Quote: “This is still an Eagles team that's being priced as if they didn't have a ton of problems... My Simon says BET this week is the Minnesota Vikings plus two and a half.” — Simon, [31:27]
• Line could move toward Minnesota.

Panthers at Jets

• Lean: Jets +2 (hold out for higher)
• Angle: Ugly home dog; classic sharp vs. square setup.
• Caution: “This is a sharper square. Obviously, the square side is easily the Panthers. The sharp side—you just have to hold your nose and take the Jets.” — Simon, [37:14]
• Jets are a tough team to trust, so bet light.

Patriots at Titans

• Lean: Titans +7 / +7.5 (wait for best number)
• Theme: “Dead cat bounce” post-coaching change for Titans; Patriots due for regression after back-to-back close wins.
• Quote: “It’s a Tennessee play or nothing… Seven is just a big number.” — Chad, [43:56]

Colts at Chargers

• Pick: Chargers -1.5
• Reasoning: Colts are being overvalued after a hot start; matchup favors Chargers' offense. Market moving in Chargers’ favor.
• Quote: “This was almost Simon says... talking to pros early in this week this is going to be a pro side. This Chargers side. Colts are due for a letdown.” — Simon, [46:52]

Giants at Broncos

• Pick: Broncos -7 (prefer -6.5 if possible)
• Rationale: Broncos’ defense is legit, dominant at home; Giants overvalued after easy schedule/close wins. Wait for number.
• Quote: “I think it's a coaching mismatch. I think it's a situational mismatch. I think it's a scheme mismatch.” — Chad, [54:29]
• Trend: Giants poor ATS off upset wins as big dogs.

Packers at Cardinals

• Lean: Packers -6.5
• Uncertainty: Waiting for QB news; prefer if Kyler Murray starts, but value is with Pack if less than a TD.
• Market: “At some point, they [Packers] are going to be undervalued by the public.” — Simon, [55:58]

Commanders at Cowboys

• Lean: Cowboys -2
• Angles: Dak is playing at an MVP level, but defense is a liability. Professional money is on the Cowboys early.
• Under Consideration: Total at 55.5 is high for a divisional game (“like the under here, it’s a gross under” — Simon, [59:34]).

3. Primetime Spotlight

Falcons at 49ers (Sunday Night)

• Leans: Niners if healthy, but major concerns about injuries (Fred Warner, Joey Bosa).
• Key Quote: “You can survive the Bosa loss. You cannot survive losing Fred Warner. Now you're going against arguably the best running back in football in [Bijan] Robinson. It's like... disaster, disaster, disaster.” — Simon, [64:07]
• Market: Line dropping to -2.5 (from -3). Wait for Friday injury reports.

Buccaneers at Lions (Monday Doubleheader 1)

• Pick: Lions -4.5 (home dome).
• Reasoning: Coming off a rare non-cover, Campbell’s teams historically bounce back. Goff is elite ATS at home/in domes.
• Quote: “Jared Goff at home in a dome... 69% against the spread. This is the spot.” — Chad, [70:25]
• Simon’s Loyalty: “You have been backing Baker week after week and been rewarded... He is so due for a bad Baker game, three-pick Baker game. Like, we know that he has that in his bag.” — Simon, [68:17]

Texans at Seahawks (Monday Doubleheader 2)

• Pick: Texans +3.5
• Rationale: Both defenses are strong, but line is too generous to Seattle; home field overrated. Texans can hang close.
• Quote: “Anytime you have a low total like that... and they're giving you the hook, don't think it, just bet it. Houston in this side.” — Simon, [73:07]

4. Standout Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Coin-Flip Games: “A roller coaster is a better. A roller coaster is a fan.” — Chad, [27:30]
• On Betting Ugly: “You have to hold your nose, unfortunately, and take the Jets. But you can be patient... Confidence wise, it's not there for me.” — Simon, [37:22]
• On Past Super Bowls: “Sirianni did it. I gotta give the guy credit. I hated him... Whatever he does, it works.” — Simon, [33:38]
• On Bears’ Upside: “You want to see a guy that can win like Justin Fields could not win. Justin Fields is never going to win these games. You guys have been winning. That's why you got a guy like Caleb Williams who doesn't have those scars, those wounds.” — Simon, [27:30]
• On Betting Psychology: “The more I talk about [the Jets], the more sick I get, but you gotta do it.” — Simon, [38:54]
• Betting Mantra: “This is what we do.” — Simon, on betting ugly dogs like the Jets, [39:37]

Key Timestamps (selected highlights)

• [04:28] — Season record recap (19-11 through 6 weeks)
• [06:05] — Steelers at Bengals handicap
• [09:03] — Rams-Jags London analysis
• [12:23] — Trevor Lawrence criticism
• [20:34] — Chad’s Choice: Browns -2.5 explanation
• [27:30] — Bears-Saints recap and Chicago worries
• [31:27] — Simon Says: Vikings +2.5
• [37:14] — Panthers-Jets: Sharper Square analysis
• [43:56] — Titans dead cat bounce, Patriots overvalued
• [46:52] — Almost Simon Says: Chargers -1.5
• [54:29] — Broncos-Giants: Denver coaching/scheme edge
• [59:34] — Cowboys-Commanders total discussed
• [64:07] — Falcons-49ers: Fred Warner’s absence
• [68:17] — Lions-Bucs: Baking in a bad Baker game
• [73:07] — Texans-Seahawks: Value in the hook

Contest Picks Shortlist (as of Tuesday)

• Consensus/Strong Leans:
  • Browns -2.5 (“Chad’s Choice”)
  • Vikings +2.5 (“Simon Says”)
  • Chargers -1.5
  • Broncos (wait for -6.5)
  • Lions -4.5 (home/dome edge)
  • Texans +3.5 (hook, defense)
  • Titans +7/+7.5 (post-coach fire bounce)
  • Saints +5.5 (overvalued Bears)

Summary & Tone

This episode is packed with actionable betting advice and honest reflection. Chad and Simon give listeners a look behind the curtain of professional handicapping: showing their methods, doubts, and joys (and despair) from betting ugly sides, following market moves, and trusting their process over gut reactions. While the language is irreverent (“plug your nose,” “just stinky, stinky game”), the analysis is rigorous and statistics-driven.

For new and seasoned bettors alike, this episode’s takeaways: trust the numbers, look for value in teams the public can't stomach, and never fall in love with your winners—or your losers.

For the most up-to-date picks and contest decisions, check their Thursday show, where they’ll finalize their five official selections after monitoring line movement, injury news, and market reactions.