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Sharp or Square
NFL WEEK 8 Bets: Packers-Steelers, Giants-Eagles, Cowboys-Broncos, Browns-Patriots, Bears-Ravens and more
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- [00:00]
Chad Millman
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:04]
Sponsor/Ad Voice
This podcast is sponsored by PayPal. Okay, let's talk holiday shopping. When you want to make the most of your Money, head to PayPal's app before you check out. They give you the flexibility to pay in four no fees, no interest. And this is big. Bigger than the 12 foot snowman on your lawn right now. You can get 5% cash back when you pay later with PayPal. So whether it's the must have merch or for that signed jersey you've been eyeing, PayPal helps you make the most of your money this holiday. Save this offer in the PayPal app expires 1231 see paypal.com promoterms subject to approval. Learn more at paypal.com payin4paypal inc.nmls910457 ever.
- [00:49]
Simon Hunter
Go to McNachos on game day and.
- [00:51]
Chad Millman
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- [01:21]
Simon Hunter
This is the story of the 1. As head of maintenance at a concert hall, he knows the show must always go on. That's why he works behind the scenes, ensuring every light is working, the H Vac is humming, and his facility shines with Grainger's supplies and solutions for every challenge he faces. Plus 24. 7 customer support. His venue never misses a beat. Call quickgranger.com or just stop by Grainger for the ones who get it done. Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Bat. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper, makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my co host, my companion, my bff, my compadre professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [02:18]
Chad Millman
Chad. What's up, brother?
- [02:20]
Simon Hunter
Well, listen, we've kind of entered Buymageddon. Do you know what that means?
- [02:27]
Chad Millman
Does it mean there's a bunch of bye weeks?
- [02:29]
Simon Hunter
That means that there are six teams with buys this week that is the most of any bye week in the NFL. So that means we don't get to fade the Raiders. We don't get to wring our hands about the Rams. We don't get to wonder in awe at Sam Darnold. We don't get to think about how we're going to bet the Los Angeles Rams. We don't get to wonder if Jacoby Brissette will keep his job as the starting quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals. All those things are off the table. Our options will be severely limited both for betting and for Survivor. Also, I'm sad to say, it's time for you to get a haircut, my friend.
- [03:24]
Chad Millman
Yeah, it's welcomed. I'm looking forward to it.
- [03:26]
Simon Hunter
Look, we went 2 and 3 last week in our five favorite picks. We won with the Browns and then the Lions. Last night we lost with the Chargers as favorites and the Texans and Titans as underdog. And all three of those games we were undone by the AFC South. The Colts crushed us with the Chargers. The Texans could not do anything. We're going to get into that. And the Titans. There was no bounce, but it was just a dead cat. So 2114 for the year with our five favorite picks through seven weeks. Tough one. Tough one. Hi. This is our Tuesday show. We're going to review the entire slate. Make sure you check out the Sunday AM show if you want the games. That will be our official five after we've had a chance to review. I know before we get into this slate, we will be relaunching our Free to Play contest. I know people are frustrated who have listened to the show for years and we've had this contest and now we're talking about a different contest. That's just the breaks of the game. We're really frustrated by it. We're bummed by it. But the good news is because Hard Rock is benevolent and knows how committed our audience is, we are going to be relaunching the contest. We're just getting through some of the final sort of wranglings. That contest will have dynamic lines. Those are going to be the lines that we're always going to be talking about and referencing. So we will dispense of talking contest lines during the week. I think that has been causing some people some confusion as we have gone through the season. Rest assured, when we are talking about the games we are betting, we are as explicit as possible. Like we say we like a game, we like a game. We give a number that we like that game up until and we will keep talking about how we're betting that game and at what number regardless. So I want there to be clarity on that. I know there's frustration and confusion, but we will be very explicit about the show and the lines we Are betting when we are talking about this on Tuesday and Thursday. Don't forget, get the shows at Sharper Square on YouTube. Go subscribe and like this video. While you are at it, you can subscribe to Sharper Square on Apple pods, Spotify, wherever you get your pods. We got some Thursday Night Football on Amazon Prime. Minnesota Vikings at the Los Angeles Chargers. Lines ticked up, Simon. It's gone from two and a half to three. Feels to me like that could only be a wise guy move. And I don't get what anyone who's sharp is thinking about if they're piling in on the Chargers. Unless they're just thinking, I want the number at two and a half.
- [06:18]
Chad Millman
Could be just. Also, it's a short week. You know, that's. Can this keep getting worse and worse for this Chargers team? That they've just been embarrassed. They've been terrible this year. So I'm with you. If I even take a position, I'll take the three and a half on the Vikings if I can get it. Just a bad game. Like, how do you trust either side? You trust Carson Wentz? I mean, not really. I guess we trust floors defense, but with Herbert, we've seen it time and time again. He can play really well for a quarter or two, get big leads, and if they can figure out some things on their defense, they can get stops against Wentz, they should win this game. But I just cannot trust this Chargers team. I know it's like we keep saying every week and it keeps missing. They're. They're at the rock bottom. The. The books keep moving their number, but yeah, for them, you got to pray. If you're Ben the Chargers, you get Joe all back. Because this, this could be a long day with that front line against this Chargers team for the Vikings. So, yeah, three and a half. That's the. That's the key there. It's like hard rocks at three. I'm not in a rush to play either side at that number. Like you said, the sharp side probably was Chargers minus two and a half. That's. That's a fair bet. But three and a half, once we get to that number, it's like, okay, I'll. On a short week, I'll take KOC against a Minter defense. That's just been terrible. Chargers defense has not been good.
- [07:36]
Simon Hunter
Look, they've been as bad as this offensive line has been, and it's been dreadful. Like, Justin Herbert is playing with guys in his lap on nearly every play and they can't get any rush game going. But this defense is just, that's what, that's what upset me on Sunday is it just looked like they rolled over. Every single time the Chargers offense got anything going, they made a little bit of a comeback. They put a dent into the, into the lead against the Colts. The Chargers defense just laid down and gave it all back. And to me, that's as big an issue as this offensive line. And unfortunately, this Charger defense is kind of healthy. Like, there's no, it's not sort of cluster injuries that we've seen on the offensive line. It's the standard injuries that every NFL team gets and they're not able to really respond to that right now. And their defense is getting worse and worse every week. There is a little bit of drama. Kevin o' Connell would not commit to Carson Wentz as the Vikings quarterback after their loss to the Eagles on Sunday. He even dropped the name Max Brosmer. Their undrafted free agent, second string quarterback from Minnesota Golden Gophers on Sunday, like, saying if Carson couldn't go back in because he was beat up, we were ready to put Max in. So I feel like there's a lot of frustration. I'm glad we are agreeing that this cannot be a game we are committed to. Thank God. Thank freaking God. Look, can we say the same about the Miami Dolphins traveling to Atlanta where the Falcons are seven point favorites? We are going to talk about the betting on this one, but first I want to play this clip that I came across yesterday. I just loved it. It's got disgust, disappointment, frustration. It sounds like a parent who has had it with his kids doing the same stupid shit day after day after day and it's just gone full exaggeration mode. Take a listen.
- [09:53]
Chad Millman
Yeah, he's going to take the snaps this week and he's going to their start of this week. And my expectation is that we don't throw 10 picks.
- [10:06]
Simon Hunter
Dude, come on. How many coaches, like, I, I, I know we're sort of waiting for Mike McDaniel to get fired, but how many coaches get up there and are so sarcastic? They're like three picks, ten picks. We all know what I'm talking about here. Two has been trash. I, I loved that clip. Loved it. I love Mike McDaniel for saying it.
- [10:28]
Chad Millman
Honestly, I'm gonna give him respect. I think it's a higher level than that. I think he's doing to Tua what Tua did literally the week before, which is throwing his defense under the bus because he had a good game. Like he came back against the Chargers. He felt like, he did his job, so he came out and just threw his defense and now, you know, he's coming out there just throwing two. Exactly two. It did the week before. So I'm shocking. It feels like that's actually a little bit of a higher level there from a guy I. And with you. Feels like everything he says is nonsensical. He's a very out there kind of guy, but I kind of get it. I kind of get what he's doing there.
- [11:00]
Simon Hunter
That's really interesting. I didn't get it at all. I totally thought of that as something very. Yeah, I think that's like.
- [11:08]
Chad Millman
I think that was layered right there. Because why would he do that's. He's never done something that egregious or insane.
- [11:14]
Simon Hunter
Right. He's always very sort of supportive.
- [11:17]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Like again, when he's nonsensical. Okay, he's just a crazy person. But that was like he. He was dialed in. He was ready for that one. That one was in the back pocket. So my motto likes Miami. It's probably a good Miami number. I can't do it. Can you. Do you have the confidence?
- [11:33]
Simon Hunter
Well, here's the thing. Like, I'm glad to hear you say that. You and I have not talked about this game.
- [11:39]
Chad Millman
No.
- [11:39]
Simon Hunter
My models are flashing green for Miami. Oh, really? Oh, yeah. Mainly. Mainly because of the spot. Exactly. Like teams getting blown out, teams being undervalued, bad teams off a loss being undervalued.
- [11:53]
Chad Millman
Right, right. That makes sense.
- [11:55]
Simon Hunter
All of it is, you know, if you do any kind of sort of situational or top down betting, that's. This is what you do. You bet Miami. And look, it has come down a little bit. It was seven and a half. It's come down to seven. So somebody's taking a piece of the Dolphins.
- [12:11]
Chad Millman
But seven and a half, obviously.
- [12:14]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Situationally, Bijan Robinson may run for 10,000 yards in this game. Like the Dolphins, 31st in EPA per run, 32nd in success rate, 30th in explosive run percentage allowed, 28th in yards allowed after contact, 32nd in yards allowed per game.
- [12:40]
Chad Millman
So.
- [12:43]
Simon Hunter
It'S. It's rough, man.
- [12:46]
Chad Millman
Yeah. And we've talked a little bit. Atlanta there, it's an interesting team because their quarterback is so young and new. And you saw in that, you know, 49ers game, they. They did the best they could to just put it all on him Again. We haven't talked about 49ers yet this week, but like that. Well, the job Salah is doing, that coaching tandem might be the Best in the league. So Pennix, he's just seems like he's a different quarterback on the road overall. And you know, this season we've seen it. This year he's just better at home. I don't know what it is. Maybe it's inside control weather. I don't know what it is. But like he dominated or dominated. But he, he played really well against a Buffalo team. Like he just didn't turn the ball over. He kind of played inside his game. And Washington, they put up 34 points. We've seen them on the road, you know, Carolina game, that was a big deal. That was an interesting spot. So you know them losing 30 nothing. Then they go on the road against 49ers, they lose 20 to 10. The offense is just anemic without Fred Warner, without Nick Bosa and they still couldn't muster more than 10 points here against Miami, it's all right. They should be, this should be the spot for Atlanta. So maybe I'll be patient, let it get to six and a half. But if it does ever get that seven and a half number, I have to take, I have to take Miami at that point. It's just too indoors with his offense and that run game. They're going to put up points that Cleveland, that's not who they are. That Cleveland game. Right. Even, even as bad as Miami's been this year, they've moved the ball and put up points, controlled environments pretty well. So. Which we know we're supposed to do. Chad here. I think we both just were so grossed out, disgusted by the way this team is and the way they are going this season. I just, I don't even put my money against with Miami, Chicago, Baltimore.
- [14:35]
Simon Hunter
Baltimore is a six and a half point favorite. It's. It's just been sitting there. You pegged this one on Sunday night, looking to take Baltimore. You said to be patient. I actually thought it might come down a little bit. But if you look at the juice, it's kind of trending towards 7. I'll spare you a lot of my strategic thoughts, but shoot, I'm starting to fall in love with Baltimore here. It's not a Chad's choice, but it very nearly was.
- [15:11]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I really like the Ravens for the spot, but the, the fear would be just Lamar isn't fully right and we're betting to something we have no knowledge of. We have no idea if his hamstring is healed and if it's Lamar the old. Because we talked before he sat out, I couldn't get over the Guys chasing him down that Chiefs. It was like I just. You had people in sports me be like, he lost a step. And it's like, no, he didn't lose a step. He's still not still a young guy. He's just hurt. He has to be hurt. And that's the fear is we're betting into a guy we haven't seen play at a high number. But I just agree with the market. It's minus six and a half. I think that's right. He is fully. Go and practice moving well. I mean they're going to get guys back on their own defense to the Ravens here. It's just a terrible spot for this Bears team. They're just walking into a team with a month of frustration, fully healthy after being well rested by a week. It's like, can the Bears do it? Yeah. We've seen them pull the rabbit out of their ass a couple times this year. They've been like, we've talked about. They've been one of those impressive teams that they've going to earn that right to be a wild card team if they keep winning those close games. So could they play tight? Sure. But the Ravens, we know the Ravens. We bet usually. This is the type of game they absolutely roll. It's an NFC team. Lamar just doesn't lose to them. Yeah, it's. It's a game where even if you're not confident about this Ravens team, you just got to trust the number. This would. If this was a fully healthy. We knew Lamar was all good. This would probably be closer to eight and a half nine. So I think we're still getting value on this line. I'm going to take it. I'm nice. I'm happy to hear that you're on it as well. The minus six and a half.
- [16:53]
Simon Hunter
I feel like you just talked yourself into it while you were talking. When you that conversation, you're like, it's, it's. I feel like it's priced right.
- [17:00]
Chad Millman
Well, it feels easy. That's the scare. It's like, why is it so low? I can't believe this isn't 77 and a half actually.
- [17:07]
Simon Hunter
Well, to me, I'm having a really hard time gauging how good the Bears rush D is right now. They were. They were definitely. They've definitely been better after the buy. They still, they still gave up.
- [17:20]
Chad Millman
They'll get sucked into that.
- [17:21]
Simon Hunter
Well, that's the thing. Like, they still. Guy. Guy. I'm getting there. I'm not.
- [17:25]
Chad Millman
I don't know why you bring it up. Though it's like, dude, well they look.
- [17:28]
Simon Hunter
They still gave up 120 yards to the commanders in Week 6 and Jaden Daniels with a bulky knee had no problem slipping by their rush. And I keep thinking what like Jaden Daniels or what Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry can do? And listen, this Bears rushing attack, like can they beat up on a Ravens D that is 29th in EPA success rate and DVOA. But like you said, Roquan Smith will be back. They should be fully healthy in the secondary. Maybe they get some support in the run game by bringing their safeties up a little bit. Like I I'm not overly impressed with the Bears winning four games in a row. I'm happy the Bears have won four games in a row. I'm afraid they get blown into Baltimore harbor with a lot of confidence brewing for this team. That's why I like Baltimore.
- [18:40]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I just, I think we're both on the same page. It's really just about this. Ravens in a Get Right spot Baltimore.
- [18:47]
Simon Hunter
Ravens minus six and a half this.
- [18:49]
Sponsor/Ad Voice
Podcast is sponsored by PayPal. Okay, let's talk holiday shopping. When you want to make the most of your Money, head to PayPal's app before you check out. They give you the flexibility to pay in four no fees, no interest. And this is big. Bigger than the 12 foot snowman on your lawn right now. You can get 5% cash back when you pay later with PayPal. So whether it's the must have merch or for that signed jersey you've been eyeing, PayPal helps you make the most of your money this holiday. Save this offer in the PayPal app expires 1231. See paypal.com promoterms Subject to approval. Learn more at paypal.com payinfor PayPal Inc.
- [19:31]
Simon Hunter
NMLS 910457 Cleveland at New England New England is a seven point favorite. We know what we do here. It's Patriots or pass.
- [19:41]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I'm fine with that. If, if people are wondering what models are going to pick, models are going to take the Browns here. That's a, that's a Browns line you have.
- [19:49]
Simon Hunter
Oh yeah.
- [19:50]
Chad Millman
Inexperienced second year quarterback going against what most computers are going to view as a juggernaut defense. But we told you like we keep hammering home. I just don't trust Cleveland's defense to travel, let alone a rookie QB in the Browns who I don't trust at all having to make big time throws in this game. So I'm with you. It's. I hate that I'm being scared off by the number. But it's also like this, this Patriots team, I know you, you believe the Drake May stuff. I like, I go back and watch this stuff and it's like, dude, this kid, he is getting, he is very talented but the throws he makes and the stuff that's working out for him are just absurd right now. Like he is playing as like the top three, top four quarterback in football right now. But it's not gonna last. It just, it's not possible. I know football fans don't want to hear this. I mean holy hell, how much noise did I hear from Jen Daniels fans telling me I don't know what I'm talking about. There's not going to be a year two letdown. The book, it gets out on you and injuries come and you play a certain style. So Drake May, I think he can last. But the hits he takes, I'm sure you've seen it. The hits he takes, I just don't get it. Like I watched the game and it's like I can't believe this kid is making these plays after taking these big shots not just at his head, like his shoulders are getting hit too. Like it's whole thing's crazy. So yeah, it's number wise. Like I said my models at six, I'm still going to take the Patriots. I probably would still take if it was minus seven and a half. I just, I have no interest or faith betting Dylan Gabriel on the road or that Cleveland defense on the road. So yeah, I hate it because it's like such a brown spot. But yeah, I can't, can't do it. Got to take Patriots on that number.
- [21:28]
Simon Hunter
I don't know that it is a brown spot and to me it really is not even about their defense. Like we know that we want to fade the Browns defense on the Patriots.
- [21:36]
Chad Millman
Can'T run the ball. You know that, right?
- [21:38]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, they can't run the ball.
- [21:39]
Chad Millman
So that's why it's a brown spot. Like they, you can make a one dimensional Drake May, that's where you want to be.
- [21:45]
Simon Hunter
But here's the thing, it to me it's not about the Browns defense. It's all about Dylan Gabriel against the Patriots defense. And I've said this for two weeks, Christian Gonzalez, he doesn't get mentioned in the broadcasts. I watched almost that entire Titans Patriots game. I watched it so our fans didn't have to. That's the kind of sacrifice that I make for the people on this show. You don't. They don't mention Christian Gonzalez because you can't throw in his direction. So all of a sudden Dylan Gabriel, who already is disadvantaged, who already isn't very good, who has escaped by the skin of his teeth and having Tua throw three picks and you know, one of them in the back of the end zone that led to a touchdown and one of them was a pick six. And then Quinshawn Judkins running for 40 yard touchdowns. Like, if you look at what the Browns did this past weekend, offensively, they didn't do anything. So I don't know what they can scheme that could get them into the end zone. Unless there are just dramatic broken plays. You kind of got to bet on that. And I don't want to bet on hoping the Browns can create some kind of havoc or. Because I don't know that Dylan Gabriel can take advantage of it. That's why.
- [23:11]
Chad Millman
Simon, I might have to get back on Twitter and just start tweeting out. Christian Gonzalez is disgruntled and the Eagles are looking to get him for a third, fourth round pick. I'm about to start tweeting that out every day just because I cannot take every week. A.J. brown and Patriots fans being like, yeah, the Eagles might give him up for a second or a third. Even after he had a huge week. I'm still seeing people be like, I still don't think A.J. brown's happy. I still think he wants out. It's like, oh my God, this is never going to end, is it?
- [23:36]
Simon Hunter
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles the Eagles are seven point favorites in this game. You, you were surprised by this one, that it was so high. And I, I thought on Monday it looked like it was trending towards six and a half. There were some six and a halfs out there, but now this morning it's at 7. You look at the juice, it might be trending to 7 and a half. Two weeks ago in New Jersey, a game that the Eagles got doubled up on and lost 34, 17, the line was Eagles -7 and a half. If you take sort of traditional point spread math, that means the Eagles would be about, let's say 10 point favorites in a neutral site, which means they should be 13 point favorites. You know, in Philadelphia, if you give points, say three points to home field advantage, let's say you're only doing two. Let's say it's 12. Isn't that some indication right now how the bookmakers have adjusted the Giants and the Eagles and how betters have adjusted the Giants and the Eagles and their power ratings?
- [24:47]
Chad Millman
You know, I don't know why my mind right to it. All I can think of is we've only played one Thursday game in our contest and as we lost it it was the Rams. We've hit every other Thursday game and we have not put any of them in the contest. Just sums up this year in a stupid way. Yeah, I don't get this one because I didn't get why the line like I said was so high still. And what are we missing on this Giants team? Like last week people are coming in on Denver and I just didn't get it and it's like am I adjusting too much to this Giants team or are people still not raiding this free playing dart style like he's not thinking making big throws and cam Scatterbill. I, I can't believe it's worked out. Like I remember him coming out. I was like there's no way this stump of a human's gonna work in this league. And he's a beast, man. He runs through dudes faces every week. He's just in the right scenario, right spots. He really is like a mini bus. He's just a beast. So I don't know. I, I, I feel like the Eagles are the right side and I'm getting psyched out too much for this Giants team but I just don't trust this Eagles team. Like I just, I'm having a hard time trusting them because they're just not consistent offense or defense. They're half teams and it's been bizarre. Like they've had the hardest schedule in all of football. You know they are five and two. It hurts. I've saw some crazy stat his through seven weeks. He's number one ratio touchdowns, interceptions. He is second in eight out. He is fifth in passer rating. He is seventh in total EPA and he's seventh in completion percentage. And it's like just said the basis he's having a great season but I just don't think as a team they are like Saquon we've talked about he's not running right. He hasn't, he doesn't have 100 yards from scrimmage this year. It's bizarre. So I don't know what to do with it. I, I, I think I'm supposed to be on the Eagles. My model says I am but there's a part of me that's just like are we just all still undervaluing this Giants team that's they're going to hit a wall, they're going to fall off a cliff eventually. I just don't know if it's this game yet. It's. It's tough to guess. So I guess I'll just a model here, try to take my human aspect out and I'll. I'll give out the Eagles still and I'll bet the Eagles, but I felt way better at six and a half like you said. Now it's getting closer to seven, seven and a half. So I'll take the seven now before it moves to that number.
- [27:08]
Simon Hunter
I thought the Eagles would hit the wall last week against the Broncos. I think we're all waiting for the fall because Jackson Dart is playing kind of out of his mind and he's doing what a lot of great quarterbacks do. We see it with Jaden Daniels, we see it with Lamar Jackson where he's getting his team into position to convert third and longs because if he sees the opportunity to run in a wide open field, he's just going for it. And he's finding a way to get that first down in what seemed like impossible situations. And that's debilitating for a defense and morale crushing for a defense. I don't, I like the Eagles have been so, like you said, a little bit off, a little inconsistent and Jalen Carter will disappear and then he'll have a game like he did on Sunday where he had seven quick pressures, like pressures of a very specific amount of time or less or six maybe. And that was more than the entire Eagles defensive front combined. And that normally comes from defensive ends.
- [28:21]
Chad Millman
So do you see you unretired?
- [28:23]
Simon Hunter
Yes, that's how bad it is. Brandon Graham, who was an Eagles legend going back to their super bowl against the Patriots and playing last year after a season with a torn pack and it was going to be his last season, has unretired to come back and play. That's not a savior situation. That's a desperation situation.
- [28:45]
Chad Millman
It is what I told you before he went down last year. He was our best the end, like statistically. So I'm happy he's coming back. He said he didn't want to retire. How he basically told him like, dude, you got the Hollywood ending. Like, give it up. So it's nice to know he still has the fire in him. But yeah, I just, when I saw that, I was like, man, it is dark, dark times right now for Philadelphia that we are trying to get. Our old players are unretired because we need them. I mean, Jason Kelce, if you can still do it, brother, we need you. Come on back. Honestly.
- [29:14]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, this is just a heart like you're going to take the Eagles at 7. I'm uncommitted on this game. Like I kind of hate everything about it because that's fair. The Giants keep breaking.
- [29:25]
Chad Millman
There's a lot of games I hate this week. So.
- [29:26]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, and there's not enough and it's hard because there's so many buys. But like the Giants keep breaking.
- [29:31]
Chad Millman
Well, the numbers are getting sharper. I mean that's true. Yeah, that's how it goes.
- [29:35]
Simon Hunter
The Giants are breaking the mold and the Eagles. Are you betting what we've seen all year? Are we betting what we saw last week which their their best complete game and even then they kind of got away with one. So it's tough. It's really, really tough. San Francisco at Houston bouncing back and forth and back and forth. The Texans have been favorites as high as two and a half. Even heading into last night's game it settled around one and a half after the game and their loss it flipped to Niners minus one and a half. Texans plus one and a half. Now Texans minus one. Simon, what say you?
- [30:12]
Chad Millman
Chad, this is Simon says give me Houston minus one. I want to play a game. Simon says.
- [30:20]
Simon Hunter
Simon says presented by Hard Rock Better the Houston Texans minus one. I get give it to me.
- [30:30]
Chad Millman
And you're right, it's a flop. And obviously much rather have Texans as a dog. Would have been nice but unfortunately for me, the professionals have the same idea as I did. It's just a nice spot for this Texas team. After last night did you stay up or did you actually go to bed?
- [30:45]
Simon Hunter
Dude, listen, I went to bed but you know the Lions game lasted so long that it went past what I was hoping would be my 10pm bedtime. So I did end up and then I started watching the Mariners Blue Jays like it was the eighth inning and I wanted to see what was going on. So I saw the the end of that game. I got to see the George Springer home run and I watched until the end of the game and I multi viewed with with the Seahawks and Texans and look like that. That was discouraging. It was. It was. It was disgruntling. If you had bet the Texans even the five minutes I watched, Texans forced four turnovers. They scored one touchdown themselves on defense. They blocked a field goal. They had back to back turnovers to give the Texans a chance at the end of the game and the Texans could do nothing with it. Like this is a pathetic offense. True. And it's such a bummer. They're wasting such a good defense. So tell me why we're going to bet the Texans this week.
- [31:47]
Chad Millman
There you go. Yeah, it was just all CJ like we. We should have covered even maybe potentially won that game a thousand different ways. And CJ Is just awful. Had an off night. And that's honestly why I like it. People are just. They're down on Houston already this year. And after that type of game where CJ to me was probably his worst game of the year, he was just like you said, so many opportunities gifted by Seattle and he just. Even the refs were helping him out. Honestly, like a couple of calls were very favorable to our direction. But this Houston team is just good. To me, like, even in that game, everything was going wrong. They saw the chance to win in like multiple different ways. It just, once again, CJ Couldn't come through their offense. I put a lot of. On their OC like some of his calls. I'm trying to think of this one specific play. It might have been the third quarter. It was third and one. He runs it to the left side again. They're getting zero push on this left side the entire game. And even the announcers are laughing at this guy being like, that was. Why not just do a QB sneak there on third and one if. Because you know you're going to go for it again if you're going for it. If you're running it on third and one. So they line up fourth and one. They run Chad, they run the exact same play to the left side again. A play they just lost half a yard on. And they lose a full yard the next time. So there's a lot of dysfunction with Houston. I think everyone's gonna be down on it. On the flip side, 49ers on Sunday night had a huge win, right? They won 20 to 10 in a game where I didn't think they looked good at all. I thought that was just a pure. McCaffrey, put the team on your back.
- [33:16]
Simon Hunter
Oh, yeah.
- [33:17]
Chad Millman
Win the game for your offense. He won't be able to do that against a Houston defense. This Houston defense is legit. Like Sam Darnold, he was the one that really stole that game. Right? As bad as CJ Was. Same down the two drives. He opened the game up that were just incredible. He was automatic him. And you know, we talked about Jackson, Smith, Jigba. They're just in tune right now. And that's what happened in that game. But you saw in that second half, Houston defense has kept them in the game. They got the strip sack, touchdown. Like Chad said, the blocked field goal. They Were just a team that never quits, they never die. And I like that type of mentality for a team that just got embarrassed. Now, on a short week where I talked about the public was going to have their week, this was their past weekend, this is going to be a huge public side, the 49ers. And to me, I, I was hoping the line would flip again. I could see this getting up to 2 minus 2. Like just so we saw the chart, I could see this get up to minus two minus two and a half. Professional money will come on this Houston side because it is a good spot for this defense at home. And I get right against a team, the 49ers, that you can, you can keep backing Mac Jones. It's working for you. He's making the plays and everything like that. But I do think we see Brock Purdy. I think he rushes back because I just. How can he not be worried about his job right now? He's, he's, he's in a spot where they're 3, 0 in the division, this, this 49ers team. So at 5 and 23 in your division, he's got to be feeling a little bit like this is a lot of Mac Jones. Mac Jones is carrying him, carrying this team right now. So I could see him rushing back and I just. This line to me is a Purdy line. If it was Mac Jones, I could see Houston being minus three. This to me, they're priced in a point and a half into 0.2 points, maybe into Purdy here. So I like this early number here on Houston.
- [35:01]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, look, I agree with everything you've said except for Brock Purdy is worried about his job. Brock Purdy, who just signed a $55 million a year contract is not worried that matters. Is not worried about his job and losing it to Mac Jones. There is, there is no world in which where that is a conversation.
- [35:26]
Chad Millman
I'm a Carson 1 survivor. You're a Mitch Trubisky survivor. What are you talking about right now? None of that money means anything. Purdy has had one good year, like, all right, he can come back. He gets hurt again and Mac Jones keeps winning games. That's a real conversation.
- [35:40]
Simon Hunter
That's a real conversation. If Brock Purdy gets hurt again and continues to struggle and can't stay healthy, he's not worried about his job after a three game absence.
- [35:49]
Chad Millman
So the last pick in the NFL draft because he was small bodied who can't stay on the field isn't worried about his job right now because he just Got paid a bunch of money from an organization that moved on from the number three pick of the NFL to him. I think you're. You're not reading this one right. That's a real thing. You're five and two with a guy that apparently the head coach loved and got overstepped by Lynch. Take someone else. Like that Mac Jones stuff is real. So I don't know. It's an entrance spot.
- [36:17]
Simon Hunter
All right, all right. I'm nothing if not flexible in my beliefs.
- [36:23]
Chad Millman
I'm just letting you know, like the plugged in world, that's. That's a real thing going on right now.
- [36:27]
Simon Hunter
So you're giving me. Not speculation, you're giving me sourcing.
- [36:31]
Chad Millman
Yeah, it's M. Jones. This is real. Purdy needs to get healthy and come back and play well. Like, he doesn't want to go into next off season with all this hanging over him. He needs to get right because the way the kids playing Mac Jones, who I. I don't think he's as good as Purdy. He's winning games right now and he's playing well and he's. He's got like a bum shoulder and a bum knee. That's. That's pretty. That's tough. That's. That's a really. If you're a football team, you rally around those type of guys.
- [36:59]
Simon Hunter
Well, by the way, for context, for those who don't remember, whatever it was, 21, 22, that's when Mac Jones and Trey Lance were both talked about as going to the Niners. And everyone thought it was going to be Mac Jones at number three. And everyone was betting huge sums of money. It was going to be Mac Jones at number three. And then it came out 48 hours before that it might be Trey Lance. And then people were betting huge sums of money that trail that Mac Jones wouldn't go number three, including our friend Simon and who we did a segment on our old show where you had pulled over from the side of the road on the way to or from the sportsbook where you just made a massive, massive bet on Mac Jones to not go number three. So I can't deny, you know of what you speak when it comes to being inside this particular conversation.
- [37:46]
Chad Millman
I just. I know I have good people inside 49ers organization. I always have people I trust. So, yeah, that, that situation, again, like you said, it's. It could end up being nothing pretty comes back, plays the rest of the year, they make the playoffs or somehow win this division. But as we said right now it's like I said, 2. I don't feel good betting against Salah or, you know, Shannon here. I, I just said they're probably the best coaching tandem of football right now. What they've done with this team is incredible, but they're another team. I just think they're batting way above their head. You know, Eagles points differential is plus 5.49ers point differentials plus 7. So it's like, it's the same thing. It's like two teams that are winning games they probably shouldn't be winning. But Eagles are much healthier getting right 49ers, they just, they're not going to get these pieces back. So it's impressive what they did Sunday, but how can they not be overvalued by the general public right now? And flip side, Texans, we're both disgusted with them like that. C.J. was awful. But you got to do it, people. I know, it's gross. Just gotta wash away what happened last week. It's a new week. You're getting a good number. Try not to overthink it.
- [38:52]
Simon Hunter
If I had stayed up for that game, I don't think I would have slept yet because it would have ended at like 1 o', clock, 1:30. I would have been so angry. It would have taken me until now to finally start coming down. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. It's opening night in the NBA, which means it's time to shoot your shot on Hard Rock Bet and your home for hoops action all season long. Need a little help with your first bet? Check out the streaks heating up inside the Hard Rock Bet stats hub. You can find live odds to bet on all of these streaks right in the Hard Rock Bet app. The warriors have won and covered the spread in seven straight games as road favorites against the Western Conference. The Thunder have won six in a row at home against the Western Conference Conference. Plus all week on Hard Rock Bet, you can get a NBA parlay boost for the games. There's new promos every day. Boost your same game parlay or SGP Max so your bet pays extra winnings. Here's a parlay I like tonight. Lakers, Moneyline, OKC Moneyline, and both games do go under no matter what you like to bet. There's new promos every day. So if you're listening to this later, there's no bad day to day. Download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit payable in bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 and over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida, call 1833 play wise in Indiana. In if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809 with it gambling problem call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia. Buffalo at Carolina. Carolina plus seven and a half Look, Bryce Young has the high ankle sprain so Dave Canales is saying he's day to day. There are other reports saying he's expected to miss the game. I think it's ticked up because people expect it to be Andy Dalton. I love the Panthers so much at full strength that I realized when I was looking at my accounts I bet this at +7 during the summer because I thought that the Panthers at this point would be so good that the number would have been shorter. They're good, but without Bryce Young. I can't believe that like Bryce Young is the deciding factor for us in this game.
- [41:35]
Chad Millman
I don't know if he is. I think that was a good read by you. You definitely got lucky with your read that Buffalo would be as bad as they are right now. But a good read on the Panthers being better. Like if this was Bryce, probably would be six and a half six.
- [41:50]
Simon Hunter
If it was Bryce, I'd love it. I'd feel so good.
- [41:52]
Chad Millman
I'm shocked. You straight off about being it being Andy? I thought as rusty as he looked last week, you expect a full week of practice. This should be a nice spot for him. This is a Bills team that can't stop the run and they might have one of the best running backs in football right now. No, they don't believe it because they're still trying to give Chuba Hubbard touches.
- [42:09]
Simon Hunter
But yeah, right.
- [42:11]
Chad Millman
It's they have a good running attack and we've talked their steam is different at home. The Panthers are just simply different. So brutal. Like I this is technically a get right spot for the Bills after their you know, they've been so bad by a week. They should play well here. But the day doesn't back those type of things up. Usually teams come out sluggish in these type of games. So we'll see. I'll check out the injury report for the Bill, see what guys are getting back. You mean, you know, Ed Oliver obviously came back was a huge instant jolt to that defense in a big way. But Panthers plus seven and a Half.
- [42:46]
Simon Hunter
I don't know.
- [42:47]
Chad Millman
Kind of love it. Kind of love it. It just feels like it's too much, too much respect for this Bills team. They don't just like the Eagles. I don't know where it's. It's. Is it warranted? Like, is this defense good enough to be catching a touchdown and a half. Like, we've got Andy Dalton with his best receiving core since he's at A.J. green in the Cincinnati days. Like, Tedron McMillan's a stud. Like, they just, they have. A lot of guys are just really.
- [43:12]
Simon Hunter
Good and their defense is improving every single week.
- [43:16]
Chad Millman
Yeah. So I don't know.
- [43:19]
Simon Hunter
All right. Kind of Panthers, listen, here's the truth. I'm locked in on this either way. So.
- [43:26]
Chad Millman
Yeah, you got to bet it again, though. If you get seven and a half.
- [43:28]
Simon Hunter
If I get seven and a half, maybe I'm betting it again. Like, this feels like we're. We've got an early indicator on what could be a. A brass balls going with Carolina at seven and a half against the Buffalo Bills. That'll be interesting to see as we get more reports from Thursday from the injury reports. Oh, God. New York jets at Cincinnati Bengals. Cincinnati Bengals are six and a half point favorites. This is what it's come to for the New York Jets. Joe Flacco's three weeks into his midseason career change, still learning the playbook in Cincinnati. A huge win in Thursday Night Football that we loved because we had the Bengals. He's nearly a touchdown favorite. And. And this line has gone up two points since the jets game on Sunday. The line was four and a half on Sunday. It's now six and a half. Simon. Simon. 100%. Every model is going to have the jets as the side to bet in this game. We do not know who will be the starting quarterback. We do know for the Jets. We do know that Justin Fields in the last two games. Do you know how many total passing yards he has in the last two games?
- [45:00]
Chad Millman
80.
- [45:01]
Simon Hunter
91. I'm glad that you went so low. 45.
- [45:05]
Chad Millman
I noticed it's been. It's been atrocious.
- [45:06]
Simon Hunter
I've watched 45 and 46. He's not even playing quarterback anymore.
- [45:12]
Chad Millman
I know. It's. It's a train wreck. And they have so many injuries, too. Like, I can't believe it, though. Joe Flacco is minus seven. I don't know. I don't know what to do with this one. Because you're right. Like, my motto wants us to take it. I mean, the money line, you get. You're getting plus 270 against Flacco. That's insane. You're almost getting three to one in your money against betting against Joe Flacco.
- [45:37]
Simon Hunter
I'd almost. I'd almost rather take the money line, you know, because.
- [45:41]
Chad Millman
Yeah, right, right.
- [45:42]
Simon Hunter
I put a little bit less than my full unit because I haven't won.
- [45:45]
Chad Millman
A game yet this year.
- [45:46]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, like.
- [45:47]
Chad Millman
But I told you, Aaron Glenn's not a real coach. He's not a serious head coach. I saw a clip. He's calling other coaches that. Ask them how they handle telling a start of their bench and going with another guy or what he should do with his starting quarterback position. It's. It's a disaster and there's a disaster organization. So. Yeah, it's. Like I said this week, there's so many lines I hate. I don't even want to bet. I. I guess I had to take a position because that's what we do on the show. I'll give out the jets, but, man, you can hear my voice. I'm probably with Chad. I'd rather just bet the money line plus 270, plus 280 if I can find it, rather than even taking the number here because like you said, what are we going to back toward Fields or Taylor? Like, these are not backdoor quarterbacks, but they are the type of quarterbacks that can get a stupid lead and hold on to it by running the ball with their legs. But yeah, it's. It's just disastrous. But.
- [46:40]
Simon Hunter
Well, look, I trust Tyrod Taylor a lot more than I trust Justin Fields. And. And the only time we've actually, I think the only time we've bet the jets and that they've covered this year was that game against the Bucks, which was a Tyrod Taylor miracle game. I've actually been really proud of us this year that we haven't bitten on the Jets. Like it's been that terrible, though.
- [47:07]
Chad Millman
I won them against Pittsburgh week one. I know, right?
- [47:10]
Simon Hunter
I guess we did.
- [47:12]
Chad Millman
Yeah. But I'm with you. Like, we just. It's just a team we don't trust and can't get a read on. They're tough.
- [47:17]
Simon Hunter
So they have nothing exceptional.
- [47:21]
Chad Millman
No. You're a gambler who bets on the Jets. Have you not learned anything about betting.
- [47:26]
Sponsor/Ad Voice
The jets are gonna come back.
- [47:27]
Chad Millman
No, they're not. They're never gonna come back. They're never gonna come.
- [47:31]
Simon Hunter
Tampa Bay at New Orleans. This line has dropped from five and a half to four and a half. New Orleans plus five and a half is now, plus four and a half. So that tells me the wise guys have been coming in on New Orleans since last night's game. Here's my worry, and I have a very specific opinion on this game. I worry that the New Orleans Saints are going to become, to us, the same team that the Panthers have been. We see enough each week that we feel encouraged, and they're a couple lucky breaks away each game from actually staying in it and covering as they were last week against the Bears, as they were the week before against the Patriots. But in reality, they're not that team. And I think this is a bad matchup for them. And I think it's time to get on the Baker train.
- [48:36]
Chad Millman
I'm not there yet with this Buck Steam. That. That was a bad Baker game. Obviously, the lines. They should have lost that game by 40, though, like.
- [48:45]
Simon Hunter
Oh, yeah, totally.
- [48:46]
Chad Millman
Golf was terrible.
- [48:47]
Simon Hunter
I can't believe that we had to sweat that.
- [48:50]
Chad Millman
Yeah, honestly. So. I mean, this Bucks team, Chad, they don't. I know they blew a team out the week before, but, like, they're another team with a minus one point differential. Like, I get it, they're five and two, but all those games, remember, they were winning on last second field goals. So six and a half. Obviously, in the Saints, that was a side. We talked a little bit Sunday night. That was a great number.
- [49:13]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [49:14]
Chad Millman
Sucks that we missed it and that it's gone now that we're stuck with the four and a half. But you're probably right. Maybe I'm too close to it, but this is just. I. I don't know how this Bucks team, with all their injuries, as bad as the Saints team is, it's a divisional game and they're catching more than a field goal. So if it was minus 3, I honestly would have no issue taking the Bucks. It's all about the line with them. Like, this year, they've been very profitable. If you've been pricing in those type of games and those lines, this is not. This is not a books line to me. This is a silly Saints number. The Bucs, like we said, they. When they get guys back, if they get Godwin back, if Bucky Irvin is back this week, if they do get a couple guys in their secondary back, I could come to your side, Chad. But as we sit here right now, I just, I. I can't trust them. And yeah, this. This Saints team that played really bad in the weather, we've seen them play well at home, indoor. Like, every game they're in, they're usually Close games. This is a close game type of number. So I'm with you. They're. They're slowly becoming a favorite team of mine, the Saints team. But yeah, this, it's about the number. Like I'm not banging the table for it because it's not plus six and a half. But I still think there's value here that's been overlooked at plus four and a half. I, I got this at three and a half. So if you do like the Bucks, you can be patient. I do think the pros will bet this one down for you. We'll wait and see too. A Mecca Abuka didn't look right in that game. Looked like he was playing on a not, not fully healed hamstring. And now they lost again. Mike Evans for the season. Does he just force it in this game? I'm a kabuka. He comes out there because they need him. Like they can't rely on. Was it Tez Johnston, this kid that's like nowhere? Yeah, he's incredible. But yeah, it's, it's asking a lot for Baker and you saw last night, Baker doesn't have his game. So yeah, it's interesting. Short week, second back to back road game for the Bucks minus four and a half. I, I thought this would be a more public side. Right now the money is definitely towards the Saints. The tickets right now it's about. Every book is about 90 towards this bucks team. So there's no doubt this is going to be a pros versus Joe's. The public will be on the books. And you're right, the pros, we might be enamored with the Saints team. We're buying fool's gold here.
- [51:26]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, look, I watched that game last night and then when I was thinking about it, late night and then. Well, late night for me, you know. 10:30 and then this morning the Lions hammered the Bucks with man to man coverage. They were awesome. And they were on one last night. That defense was playing out of its mind. The pass rush was insane. That's the, the, the Saints, they live in zone coverage and like Baker lives beating zone coverage. Baker is the best quarterback in the league on an EPA per attempt basis against zone. I think he's going to eat these guys up. I think and I think coming back like it's going to be quieter. It's not going to be amped the way Detroit was. Like that was a. We love Detroit no matter what the number last night because we believe like Baker's magic is going to run out against a far superior team. I don't think it runs out against a team that plays the exact defense he likes to eat up. That's my take on the game.
- [52:39]
Sponsor/Ad Voice
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- [53:24]
Simon Hunter
At Indy Indy is a 13 and a half point favorite. Simon Our beliefs are being tested. That's all I can say about this.
- [53:35]
Chad Millman
Yeah, we're supposed to be in Tennessee, but I don't care. I'll take, I'll take the Colts.
- [53:39]
Simon Hunter
Are you taking the Colts or we just. Are we like you're actively going to take the Colts here?
- [53:45]
Chad Millman
Yeah. And I'll throw them in our money line around Robin. I'll get him down to. I don't even. I need to get him down to five and a half. I'll take him down to six and a half. Six and a half. That's how much I don't respect this Tennessee team, which is. They're just terrible. So. Yeah. Can they get a backdoor junk touchdown? Sure. But you have arguably the best running team in football, the Colts, going against one of the worst run defenses in all football. And you simply just have this scheme around Jeffrey Simmons.
- [54:10]
Simon Hunter
Like who we. We don't know if he's going to play because remember he missed half the game with hamstring injury.
- [54:16]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I just, I don't know.
- [54:19]
Simon Hunter
It has come down. It was at 14 and now it's 13 and a half.
- [54:23]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I'm sure pros are betting Tennessee. You know, if like you said, Christian Gonzalez shut down Tennessee's number one receiver, he didn't play in the game. Really didn't play. So they don't even have their number one receiver. He could play in this game, which they need, but I think Lockett has to be released from them. Like they're just totally dysfunctional right now. This Tennessee team. So they need Ridley back. They need some type of offensive offensive weapon because the guys they had out there last week just were not getting open, getting it done. So it's, it's bad for Tennessee. This just feels like a really bad matchup. And like we always say these, these big spreads in divisional games, weird things can happen. But you also saw exactly what happened last week with the Raiders where some of these teams just can't save themselves right now and they're running into teams that are just buzz saw. So we'll see. The cultures feel like a really well oiled machine right now. I don't see them taking this game lightly because it is a divisional game. I think they'll be fully prepared and ready to play in this one. And yeah, it's, it's painful. It's the Tennessee team that probably is a good number. Fourteen and a half. Fourteen. But at thirteen and a half, I'll take that, but I'll take the Colts.
- [55:33]
Simon Hunter
I actually feel like when you're playing the way the Colts are right now and you're dominating the way they are, you want to keep doing it. Like you are so freaking motivated to continue to be that excellent and to elevate yourself into the upper tier of the NFL ranks right now. I think they're, they're so freaking psyched with the way they're playing and they're, and, and they're coached so well right now. I don't see them taking even a second of this game lately against the Titans. I'm glad you said it because I didn't want to be on the Titans. I was antsy about taking the Colts. I appreciate you booing my confidence on this game. Dallas at the Denver Broncos the Denver Broncos are currently three point favorites. First game I thought about on Sunday night continues to be in my head. The Denver Broncos -3 will be Chad's choice.
- [56:37]
Chad Millman
Are you sure you want to do this? Are you willing to make a choice?
- [56:41]
Simon Hunter
What choice? We can't run from who we are.
- [56:45]
Chad Millman
Sharp dudes can just see it, you know what I mean?
- [56:52]
Simon Hunter
In my model. Simon I like a good team as a home fave that struggled against a good team that won easily. The Cowboys won easily against second and third tier receivers on Sunday against the Commanders. I know you want to say something about b Knicks, so before I dig into it, I want to hear what you have to say.
- [57:24]
Chad Millman
Yeah, we fought over this one. We both love it. I, I was happy to hear that you were making this your choice. It's, it's just a great, great Spot, great number. Hopefully people can get this while they can. This is going to go up to minus three and a half, minus four. It's just a number that's going to keep moving. The simple fact that yes, the Cowboys can score at will. They are an incredible offense. This should be a bad matchup for them. Denver's defense, who is not impressed at all this season, they need to step up here and really shut down a Cowboys offense that yes, they're incredible, they're juggernaut. But usually against bad teams and bad defenses, like this is a real test for this Cowboys offense that they're just going through everybody. Dak, we've seen it. He does struggle with pressure. We've talked all the injuries. Offensive line, this should be the matchup for Denver. And on the bo Nick side, I mean the guy said records, right? First quarterback in FL history, two rushing touchdowns, two passing touchdowns in the same quarter. It's insane. Like he just what he did against that Giants team, he was deader than dead for three quarters. He did absolutely nothing. He was terrible. And to have the narcissistic self belief that he does is incredible. Like that's why these guys are professionals, right? They have that belief you can come back and win that game. That is something they should build on. So I love the spot for Denver. It should be a, not a launching point for this team. But like they, they had so much hype coming to the year and that, that hype has been extinguished. Right? Most people, you know, I just don't think they're on this team like they were before the year. Like no one's saying this team is going to beat the Chiefs in this division at all. Right? Those I maybe some are still out there, but I just think this is a team that's still being a little bit sold low on in Denver. Especially after all these people we bet on last week. They were mad at them. Like even though they won for us in our moneyline around Robin, they didn't cover people's teasers. They were horrible on the number.
- [59:16]
Simon Hunter
I bet him at seven and I'm furious.
- [59:19]
Chad Millman
Right? And you say one of the craziest things ever. You thought you still had a chance to cover in that game. I was just like Chad is totally just a crazy person, by the way.
- [59:26]
Simon Hunter
Narcissistic self belief. It's not just for quarterbacks. It's also for suburban dads living in central Connecticut just admiring the fall foliage.
- [59:39]
Chad Millman
Yeah, you're a crazy person. I just love when you said it, I was like, I can't believe you honestly think you have any right or even attention to cover.
- [59:45]
Simon Hunter
Simon if you don't know by now that I live in an irrationally optimistic world and and I always believe that the fluky is going to go my way. Like in my house. My wife believes that if there is a 1% chance of something bad happening or having it, she or me or our kids are going to have it. If there is a 1% chance of something good happening, I believe it is going to happen.
- [60:15]
Chad Millman
To me it's a better way to live.
- [60:18]
Simon Hunter
Honestly, it's very good where to live.
- [60:20]
Chad Millman
But yeah, Denver grab it when you can. There's it just feels a great match for them against a Cowboys team that is is better than we all perceive. But this just feels like the type of game that's just a touchdown game for the Denver.
- [60:33]
Simon Hunter
So matchup game. My belief is a matchup game. I just like I like the Broncos defense and how they pressure, how they are very good at keeping teams from converting on third down. I think they they shot themselves in the foot so many times against the the Giants they had I think four defensive penalties, three PIs or roughing the passer, all of which converted into big plays when the Giants were out of it. Like I watched that game because I was invested and it was so frustrating because the Giants, the Broncos defense kept giving it back to the Giants again and again and again. So to me this was about spot, about perception and about individual matchup. Broncos Defensive edge Nick Benito vs. Dak Prescott Jack's Choice Denver Broncos -3 Are you ready for the primetime spotlight? Because I know there's a couple games in here that we want to talk about that I think are really interesting. We're going to bet these games people are going to think about these games. It's going to be exciting to sweat these games at the end of Sunday and Monday. First game Green Bay at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is down to three from three and a half. You keyed on this game Sunday night. I hope people were listening because I batted at three and a half. I know you did too. How do we feel at 3?
- [61:57]
Chad Millman
Still on Pittsburgh, but also I've got, I got some calls from some guys about it, so I'm it's nice to see the number moved our way. I know some pros are really like Green Bay in this spot, so still confident in it, but obviously I wish people could have got the three and a half and I think we might be able to still get back there. Like if pros really like the Green Bay this much. Maybe we'll get back up to it. The view they have, which I agree with, which I understand they're coming to the market with. Is Parsons look like he finally has gotten right with that defense last week against Brissette. Isn't this quarterback the exact same as what he went against last week? A quarterback that can't move that much, that's older in the pocket and I get that. I just. I think we both agree. I just do not trust this Green Bay team. I don't think they're good. And it's like, isn't this a Tomlin spot and a Tomlin number like a three and a half, three plus three dog at home Sunday night.
- [62:48]
Simon Hunter
I wonder what Mike Tomlin is going to say about that.
- [62:51]
Chad Millman
I try to keep it real simple. Football is our game. Our business is winning. And when we winning, the business is being handled. And when you not is not. I just. Aaron Rodgers against Green Bay, all of it. I can't get away from it. It's killing me. Like, I love this one. I'm so torn here. There's pros on the other side because I thought this was going to be Joe's versus pros just like these other games where it's like public will be all over Green Bay. The professionals would bet Pittsburgh just because this is such a matchup where Pittsburgh got embarrassed. The last time we saw them, they got lit up by Joe Flacco. Joe Flacco made fun of them, basically saying he didn't even know the offense. He just needed to. He knew if he just waited, there's gonna be windows in that defense because Pittsburgh runs the same exact defense even when they're giving up 30 points in the game. They didn't change their defense the entire game. So if that's not a rally week from Tomlin this weekend, that defense. Right. I feel like we have to pay for the loss, Chad. Like this is just a. A game we can't avoid. If we back Tom in our certain spots, we know when to fade. It feels like we have really good rhythm with Tomlin. No window back and when to go against him. Somebody got to be all in for everybody to be all in. We might bite the bullet here. This might be a bad one. The pros might be right on Green Bay, but I can't avoid it, especially at plus three and a half. Couldn't avoid it. Plus three. Still love it. Still think this should be under. Under a field goal. Good value to me on this Pittsburgh team. And I'm shocked. I. I really Am that it came down. I really thought we would be able to get give out three and a half on this show. But yeah, early professional money is coming up. Pittsburgh, it's. It is. It is what it is.
- [64:19]
Simon Hunter
Mike Tomlin, 9:2 and 3 against the spread as a dog of three or more at home thanks to Kimberly.
- [64:29]
Chad Millman
Man, an opportunity to get a quality dude at a discount. Like what we talking about.
- [64:35]
Simon Hunter
The. The thing I can't get out of my head is, you know, I love Matt LaFleur and I was, I was on the Packers a few weeks ago off of their buy because I thought he would have sort of fixed a lot of the challenges this offense has been having. And they still looked bad against the Cardinals. Like they have talent all over the field. Josh Jacobs, Tucker Kraft, Jordan Love. The defense has Micah Parsons. They've got really good players and they don't seem to be able to figure out how to be a great, complimentary, awesome team right now. They had a good game against the Lions and who knows, maybe that was just a fluky game for the Lions. Right. And so it's hard to look back at that game and think, oh, the packers are amongst the elite in the NFL right now. And that's what this line is saying. And I think it's discounting a little bit of the success the Steelers have had and the fact that the last time anyone saw them was against the Bengals. But don't forget this is now. The Steelers have basically have had one game in almost four weeks. Right. Because they had the bye heading into the Bengals game and now they've been off for 10 days. So it's just another chance for them to get healthy and to get better and make adjustments. And Mike Tomlin at home as a dog after a game that he's lost, he just gets better.
- [66:05]
Chad Millman
I know we can't avoid it.
- [66:06]
Simon Hunter
We can't avoid it.
- [66:07]
Chad Millman
We love it.
- [66:08]
Simon Hunter
Get ready.
- [66:10]
Chad Millman
Are you ready for some football?
- [66:14]
Simon Hunter
A Monday night party. Washington at Kansas City. So listen, this game's at ten and a half. Kansas City's a 10.5 point crazy. Obviously it was four and a half on Sunday afternoon. I will tell you that as soon as Jaden Daniels limped off the field on Sunday, I went to try to bet Kansas City at minus four and a half and it was showing. It was available, but it wouldn't accept my ticket. Here's my question.
- [66:41]
Chad Millman
That's also how you get banned.
- [66:43]
Simon Hunter
Huh? You know, I've been banned. I. I'm down to two places I can bet in Connecticut.
- [66:48]
Chad Millman
Look at you.
- [66:53]
Simon Hunter
This game. Do we have to ask ourselves forget about passing it because Jaden Daniels isn't playing and we've lost six points of value. Do we have to think about playing the Chiefs because from a matchup point of view maybe we are getting value. Maybe the Commanders are actually still should be 13 point underdogs.
- [67:15]
Chad Millman
I don't know. It's tough because Mario honestly this year is not that big in my model. Not that big of a great of a step down compared to Jane Dance. Just because Jane. Dan has been hurt all year. He's been playing on a bum leg and he's not look good where Mariota. I know he's up and down. That's. That's Mario's style. Like he's gonna run for 20 yards and maybe throw a six 60 yard bomb the next pass. Fumble it. Fumble a snap. It's just that's the Mario experience. That's why he's a backup butt. 10 and a half is a lot of points here at Hard Rock. That's a lot of points. So I'm tempted to do it. I know the Chiefs look like an absolute judge or not and like the best team of football, which they are. But that Raiders thing was unique. That's a team they hate. A team that talks smack about them. A team that I think their DB was putting up a picture of Kermit the. Kermit the Frog or.
- [68:06]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [68:06]
Chad Millman
And like something like mocking Mahomes. So it's like they, they thoroughly embarrassed that that Raiders team, they. They literally. I don't know if you've watched into that Chiefs game. They put a backup in with like a minute to go in the third quarter and they basically kneeled down at the end of the game even though they're gonna have to punt anyway. Back to the Raiders. They were just like we're not going to run a play against you guys. That's how like they're not even run the clock out. So I just think it's a lot to ask Mahomes we talked those stats. He just doesn't blow teams out. They just don't show everything usually. And that Raiders one felt like personal where Washington, God willing. Chad. We get down by 21 in the third quarter, we're going to be alive with Mariota like he's never going to stop fighting. So I'm not going to force this one in because I don't have. It's Tuesday. We have no idea if McLaren's playing, no idea if Debo's playing, if. If Mario doesn't have a number one, number two receiver. I don't care if this is 13 and a half. I'm just not going to be putting money into this Washington team. And I'm happy to do what I did last week with the Chiefs, throw them in a teaser, get the number down lower even though I didn't need to. It's just I always feel more comfortable doing that in the home. So yeah, this is a game where you said we missed it, we should have got the Chiefs. We knew Daniels probably was gonna play this one. Anyone that got that early number, great play. At this point it just feels like it's either Washington to me or Chiefs in a teaser. It's just that feels like the only option.
- [69:31]
Simon Hunter
All right, so we like Baltimore six and a half. We're thinking about New England minus seven. Simon says is Houston minus one. Carolina plus seven and a half has brass balls potential. Who else are we talking about?
- [69:54]
Chad Millman
Denver and Pittsburgh.
- [69:56]
Simon Hunter
Well also Indy minus 13 and a half, Denver minus three, Pittsburgh plus three and a half. I mean it's a hard, it's a hard week. There's just, you know, there's, there's fewer games, so significantly fewer games. But that's, that's what we're thinking about. That's what we're leaning. Hopefully people can get, get some of these numbers before they move. That Denver line is definitely going to move soon. This has been sharp or square part of the volume podcast network. We will be back on Thursday with the games we are narrowing down plus our survivor pick our head to head battle brass balls. So much more. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Squared. Like the video, subscribe to the channel. Also download from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pod rate Review, subscribe, leave 5 stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.
- [70:53]
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