Sharp or Square – NFL Week 8 Betting Analysis

Podcast Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Network: iHeartPodcasts & The Volume
Episode Title: NFL WEEK 8 Bets: Packers-Steelers, Giants-Eagles, Cowboys-Broncos, Browns-Patriots, Bears-Ravens and more
Date: October 21, 2025

Episode Overview

Chad Millman and professional sports bettor Simon Hunter break down the Week 8 NFL slate, analyzing sides from a "sharp or square" betting view. Their discussion covers both marquee matchups and less appealing games, with insights into line movement, bookmaker adjustments, and model projections. Each game is inspected for betting value, with a focus on avoiding public overreactions, reading sharp money, and leveraging situational angles.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Setting the Scene: Buymageddon (+ Updated Contest Format)

• [02:19] Simon: This week dubbed “Buymageddon,” with six teams on bye, limiting options for bettors and survivor pools.
  • “We don’t get to fade the Raiders... options will be severely limited both for betting and Survivor.”
• Contest update: They’re relaunching the free-to-play contest with dynamic lines for clarity.

2. Key Game Breakdowns and Betting Angles

Thursday Night Football: Vikings at Chargers

• [06:17] Chad & Simon agree this is too ugly to bet confidently:
  • Line movement from Chargers -2.5 to -3 likely wise guy action, but neither can trust the Chargers’ defense/offensive line.
  • Chad: “If I even take a position, I’ll take the three and a half on the Vikings if I can get it.”
  • Quarterback uncertainty (Carson Wentz vs. Max Brosmer) adds volatility.

Dolphins at Falcons (-7)

• Both models flash green for Miami, but hosts are wary of backing them:
  • Simon [11:33]: “Situationally, Bijan Robinson may run for 10,000 yards in this game.”
  • Miami’s run defense abysmal statistically (bottom 2–4 in nearly every category).
  • Hesitation stems from how “grossed out” both are by Miami’s form, though value emerges if line moves back above +7.

Bears at Ravens (-6.5)

• Strong alignment on Baltimore as a “get right” spot:
  • Chad [15:10]: “I really like the Ravens for the spot, but... the fear would be just Lamar isn’t fully right.”
  • Simon [17:17]: Defensive health and the return of key pieces make this attractive. Bears’ recent win streak seen as smoke and mirrors.

Browns at Patriots (-7)

• Reluctant but united on Patriots:
  • Chad [19:40]: “If people are wondering what models are going to pick... that’s a Browns line.”
  • Ultimate call: Fade rookie Browns QB on the road vs. Bill Belichick; Patriots’ D expected to dominate, especially with Christian Gonzalez playing at an elite level.

Giants at Eagles (-7)

• Parsing the line: Is the Giants’ recent success sustainable? Eagles getting healthier.
  • Chad [24:47, 27:08]: “I feel like the Eagles are the right side, and I’m getting psyched out too much for this Giants team.”
  • Simon sees Jackson Dart of Giants as magical with his conversion rate on third and long, but leans Eagles before line possibly rises further.

49ers at Texans (+1) – "Simon Says" Bet

• Both endorse Houston as the sharp side:
  • Simon [30:19]: “Simon says... Houston Texans minus one. Give it to me.”
  • Fade San Francisco in a classic let-down spot after SNF win; trust Houston’s defense to control the game. Discussion about 49ers’ QB situation and internal team politics—potential value before line shifts.

Bills at Panthers (+7.5)

• Interest with Andy Dalton possibly starting for Carolina; line ticked up with Bryce Young’s status uncertain.
  • Panthers at home with strong running attack, Bills D vulnerable vs. rush.
  • Chad [42:46]: “Kind of love it. Kind of love it. Just feels like it’s too much respect for this Bills team.”

Jets at Bengals (-6.5)

• Models like the Jets, but morale and injuries are major issues.
  • Simon [46:39]: “Man, you can hear it in my voice. I’d rather just bet the money line, plus 270, plus 280 if I can find it, rather than even taking the number here...”
• General sentiment: grudgingly take the points with the Jets if forced.

Buccaneers at Saints (+4.5)

• Split perspective: Chad ready to “get on the Baker train” against a Saints team he sees as fool’s gold close-coverers.
  • Chad [48:36]: “I think it’s time to get on the Baker train.”
  • Simon [49:13]: Still values Saints at home with line north of a field goal, especially if Bucs injury list grows.

Titans at Colts (-13.5)

• Both (begrudgingly) on Colts, citing overwhelming run game advantage and Titans’ dysfunction:
  • Chad [53:35]: “I don’t care, I’ll take the Colts... That’s how much I don’t respect this Tennessee team.”
  • Note: Large divisional favorites are scary, but Titans’ roster in chaos.

Cowboys at Broncos (-3) — Chad’s Choice

• Favorite value look of the week:
  • Chad [56:37]: “Denver Broncos -3 will be Chad’s choice.”
  • Classic spot: “Home dog coming off a struggle vs. a public darling off a big win.” Denver’s defense best equipped to frustrate Dak Prescott.

Packers at Steelers (-3)

• Old-school “Tomlin as underdog” spot, both on Steelers.
  • Simon [64:18]: “Mike Tomlin, 9-2-3 against the spread as a dog of three or more at home.”
  • Both see Pittsburgh’s recent loss as a buy-on-the-dip moment.

Commanders at Chiefs (-10.5)

• Chiefs teased, but otherwise a pass unless injury news on Commanders’ WRs is positive; Mariota not much of a downgrade vs. banged-up Jaden Daniels.
  • Prefer teasing Chiefs or passing.

3. Betting Insights & Memorable Moments

• On betting ugly teams:

  • Simon [14:35]: “I just, I don’t even put my money against Miami, Chicago, Baltimore... Just not these teams right now.”

• On backup QBs and QB controversies:

  • [35:01] Chad & Simon get deep into the “Brock Purdy vs. Mac Jones” narrative at San Francisco, with Chad dropping some inside info:
    • “I know I have good people inside the 49ers organization... this Mac Jones stuff is real.”

• Self-deprecating humor:

  • Simon [59:26]: “Narcissistic self-belief – it’s not just for quarterbacks, it’s also for suburban dads living in central Connecticut admiring the fall foliage.”

Notable Quotes

• Chad Millman [06:17]:
  “If I even take a position, I'll take the three and a half on the Vikings if I can get it. Just a bad game. Like, how do you trust either side?”
• Simon Hunter [30:19]:
  “Simon says presented by Hard Rock Bet – the Houston Texans minus one. Give it to me.”
• Chad Millman [15:10]:
  “I really like the Ravens for the spot, but the fear would be just Lamar isn't fully right and we're betting into something we have no knowledge of.”
• Chad Millman [56:37]:
  “Denver Broncos minus three will be Chad's choice.”
• Simon Hunter [64:18]:
  “Mike Tomlin, 9-2-3 against the spread as a dog of three or more at home.”
• Chad Millman [59:39]:
  “[Narcissistic self-belief] is not just for quarterbacks, it's also for suburban dads living in central Connecticut just admiring the fall foliage.”

Important Timestamps

• Buymageddon and Contest changes: 02:19–05:20
• Vikings-Chargers Analysis: 06:17–07:36
• Falcons-Dolphins Run D Debacle: 11:33–12:42
• Bears-Ravens Handicapping: 14:35–18:39
• Browns-Patriots, All-in on New England: 19:30–23:10
• Eagles-Giants Big Line/Perceived Value: 24:47–29:14
• 49ers-Texans, Simon Says: 30:12–38:52
• Cowboys-Broncos as Chad's Choice: 56:37–60:20
• Packers-Steelers, Tomlin Spot: 61:57–66:07

Week 8 Best Bets & Leans (Summary Table)

| Game | Side | Reasoning (Sharp/Square Angle) | |--------------------------------|---------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Ravens -6.5 vs Bears | Sharp | Get right spot, fully healthy post-bye, Lamar’s health priced in for value | | Patriots -7 vs Browns | Sharp | Fade rookie Browns QB, Belichick vs. inexperience | | Eagles -7 vs Giants | Lean | Model likes Eagles, line seen as discounting Eagles power, but wary of Giants' magic | | Texans -1 vs 49ers | Simon Says | Value in home bounce-back, sharp side, doubting Niners off SNF win | | Panthers +7.5 vs Bills | Brass Balls Candidate | Home, running game edge, Bills D struggling | | Colts -13.5 vs Titans | Sharp | Titans too dysfunctional, Colts run game overwhelming | | Broncos -3 vs Cowboys | Chad's Choice | Perception/spot edge, Denver defense matches up vs Dak | | Steelers +3 vs Packers | Sharp | Tomlin home dog spot, buying bounce-back against overvalued Pack | | Chiefs (teaser) vs Commanders | Square | Too many points, prefer to tease if anything | | Saints +4.5 vs Buccaneers | Sharp | Divisional home dog, Bucs have cluster injuries; but watch for injury updates |

Conclusion

Week 8 is a minefield thanks to “Buymageddon,” with limited games and sharper lines. Key takeaways: don’t overreact to recent blowouts, avoid getting attached to narrative darlings or recent "lucky" teams, and continue to shop for the best lines as numbers move quickly early in the week. Denver -3 and Houston -1 are the top sharp plays, while caution is advised in games with QB uncertainty (e.g., Carolina, NY Jets). As always, the hosts deliver a balanced blend of wise guy logic, betting psychology, and trench-level NFL knowledge.