Sharp or Square — NFL Week 8 Recap & Early Week 9 Bets

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Episode Date: October 27, 2025
Theme: Breaking down the sharpest and squariest bets from NFL Week 8, with detailed recaps of key games—including Cowboys-Broncos, Jets-Bengals, Giants-Eagles, Niners-Texans—and sharing early leans for Week 9.

Episode Overview

Chad and Simon dissect the biggest moments from NFL Week 8, judging whether their bets were sharp ("pros") or square ("public"). The duo discusses detailed game breakdowns, referee controversies, emotional swings as bettors and fans, and look ahead to actionable early Week 9 wagers. Listeners get both data-driven insights and real gambler energy—peppered with classic wiseguy banter.

Key Recaps & Betting Insights

1. Patriots vs. Browns

Bet: Patriots -6.5 (Win)
[03:12] Chad:

• “Our record on the day is three and one… We had the Patriots minus six and a half. We liked them at seven.”
• Chad describes a eureka betting moment while stretching: “Dylan Gabriel cannot score touchdowns in this game. He absolutely will not be able to score.”
• Debate over sharp vs. square on the number (moved to -6.5, away from key 7).

[05:56] Simon:

• “It was frustrating. The exact type of game that the professionals do bet… the Browns basically pulled the Patriots into the mud, got a really fluky opening drive, touchdown, and we were sweating…”

[07:07] Chad:

• Analyses pivotal halftime adjustments by New England:
  “No penalties, seven plays, 77 yards, five runs, two passes. Can’t sack if you don’t drop back.”

Insight:

• Smart adjustment to Browns pressure, faith in coaching (Vrabel), recognizing opponent QB limitations. Summary Judgment: Sharp Bet.

2. Giants vs. Eagles

Bet: Giants +7.5 (Loss)
[09:05] Chad & Simon:

• Giants made the contest cut due to Eagles injuries—regret ensues. Referee blunders and bad luck dominate the story.

[10:03] Simon:

• “The refs were just terrible… The game flipped, in my opinion, on that touch push… If you reach forward with the ball and you are still, that’s momentum…”

[12:30] Chad & Simon:

• Missed opportunities:
  “Second and 31. Brian Burns… They give up a 31 yard run to Tank Bigsby. That was a backbreaker.”
  • Questionable OPI wipes out a Giants TD.

[14:21] Simon:

• “Give them one universal challenge every coach gets to make that they challenge a call on the field… It just changes so much, dramatically.”

Insight:

• The Giants' cover derailed by officiating, big plays, and missed calls. Wiseguys’ bets sometimes just lose to variance. Summary Judgment: Good Process, Bad Result.

3. Texans vs. 49ers

Bet: Texans +1 (Win)
[15:43, 17:16] Chad & Simon:

• Loved Houston all week despite line movement, prospecting public overreaction to SF.

[17:16] Simon:

• “Something up with Houston, them just not finishing in the red zone… It’s hard to get mad at a quarterback that’s number one, number two receiver are out of the game.”

[19:58] Chad:

• Dominant stats:
  “Texans had 475 yards, more than twice as many as the 49ers… 13 minutes and 19 seconds of the 15 minutes in the first quarter, and only up six nothing.”

[21:58] Simon:

• “I think they’re going to be a borderline playoff team, which for the Texans, that’s the most you can ask for.”

Insight:

• Betting against banged-up favorites, trusting sharp movement and exploiting public misperceptions. Summary Judgment: Sharp Bet, Pro Market Read.

4. Cowboys vs. Broncos

Bet: Broncos -3.5 (Win)
[23:53, 25:15] Chad & Simon:

• Their biggest fear was Bo Nix under center for Denver. Chad confesses to missing Bo Nix’s first interception because he was grabbing carrot sticks, keeping him “zen” the rest of the game.

[25:18] Simon:

• “Other than that one turnover, Bo Nix played against air. It was like a seven on seven… The run game picking up 10 yards a clip.”

[26:41] Chad:

• “We never wavered. And I will tell you right now, your support for this bet meant everything to me… Not even kidding. Like you loved it.”

Insight:

• Fade the hype on Dallas, trust Denver’s physicality and home edge; collaborative confidence matters at the margin. Summary Judgment: Sharp Game Script, Team Chemistry.

5. Ravens vs. Bears

Bet: Ravens -6.5 (Win)
[32:26] Chad:

• Erupts over Ravens injury report shadiness, but insight holds: preferred Tyler “Snoop” Huntley over Cooper Rush for Chicago.
  “We liked Tyron Huntley better than Cooper Rush. So that worked out really, really well.”

[34:33] Simon:

• “It’s the exact game though, of you just trust the spot and the numbers… automatic spot for this Ravens team.”

[36:07] Chad:

• “After that first quarter, the Bears got unscripted and didn’t know what they were doing anymore… We saw that from Caleb [Williams] today multiple times.”

[41:13] Simon:

• “Take time with Caleb. I’m with you. Like, he’s 23, though. I just… He has so many bad habits. He needs to get beat out of them.”

Insight:

• Not all line moves due to QB changes warrant panicking. Sometimes, trusting a backup is the right sharp move; Bears are a hard team to back or even root for. Summary Judgment: Wise Trust in Process, Emotional Rollercoaster.

6. Jets vs. Bengals

Advice: Take Jets ML (Win)
[45:57] Chad & Simon:

• Called it on Tuesday: “Take the Jets money line.”
• [46:57] Simon: “At that point, Joe Flacco, if you bet against him, you could have got plus 270… It closed at plus 215.”

[48:57] Chad:

• “The joke of an ownership, one of the worst owners in the league, for [Justin Fields] to go out there, win that type of game, 39 points on the road—yeah, what a great, great feeling…”

[51:06] Chad:

• “Shame, shame, shame. Cincinnati Bengals defense against the New York Jets… You were up 31–16… and you let them win the game.”

Insight:

• Trusting chaos when the numbers say so; betting ugly ML dogs when the line and market movement indicate value. Summary Judgment: Ultra-Sharp Dog Play, Great Market Timing.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Chad (on the Patriots’ halftime adjustments, 07:07):
  “No penalties, seven plays, 77 yards, five runs, two passes. Can’t sack if you don’t drop back.”

• Simon (on officiating, 10:03):
  “The refs were just terrible... That was absurd. Like just every little thing felt like it went against [us].”

• Chad (on Caleb Williams and Bears fandom, 39:16):
  “At some point during this game, I asked myself, what would it be like if I decided I was no longer a Bears fan? What would I honestly gain in my life? What would I lose in my life?”

• Simon (on the sharpness of ugly dogs, 47:20):
  “It’s why we talk about how stupid football can be, why we love betting these dogs… a game like this with the Jets happen[s] not every week, but every other.”

Timestamped Noteworthy Segments

• [03:12] — Week 8 betting recap & explaining the Patriots pick
• [09:05] — Giants-Eagles loss and rant against officiating
• [17:16] — Texans’ red zone woes but comfortable cover
• [23:54] — Bo Nix’s early pick, Broncos cover, comfort foods for gamblers
• [32:26] — Ravens injury report enmity and backup QB insight
• [45:57] — Jets moneyline call, sweat, and ultimate triumph
• [51:06] — “Shame, shame, shame” segment (Bengals defense roasted)
• [52:44] — “Hero of the Week” picks: James Cook (Bills), Snoop Huntley (Ravens)

Early Week 9 Bets & Leans

• Chiefs -1.5 vs. Bills
  Simon: “That is a line I will take on that Chiefs team right now.” (56:26)

• Seahawks -3 vs. Washington
  Simon: “What in the world is that number? Seahawks.” (56:26)

• Lions -8.5 (or -9) vs. Vikings
  Chad: “No reason to back the Lions until they show us they shouldn’t be trusted at home as a big favorite.” (57:42)

• Houston +1 (early) vs. Denver
  Simon: “Still market not valuing this Houston team. I could see that flipping so I’m going to grab Houston now as a dog.” (58:49)

“Shame, Shame, Shame” & “Hero of the Week”

• Shame:
  • NFL officials (especially Giants-Eagles, 50:17)
  • Bengals defense (vs. Jets, “shame, shame, shame”, 51:06)
• Hero:
  • James Cook (Bills RB, for a monster day when Josh Allen struggled, 52:44)
  • Snoop Huntley (Ravens QB, for a steadying fill-in performance, 53:56)

Overall Tone & Language

• The hosts balance wiseguy shop talk with self-deprecating gambler commiseration: “I would turn into Dracula in the sunlight,” quips Chad on eating sugary cereal (25:15).
• Big emphasis on process wins and losses, not just results (“good process, bad outcome,” “variance happens”).
• Not afraid to rant (Chad on the Bears, officiating shambles, John Harbaugh’s arrogance).
• Plenty of attributive banter and encouragement: “Your support for this bet meant everything to me. Not even kidding…” (26:41).

Final Summary

Week 8’s theme: the agony and ecstasy of NFL betting, officiating controversies, sharp/square distinctions, and trusting the process over results. Simon and Chad break down each of their major picks, emphasize what made a bet “sharp,” bemoan their ref-aided bad beats, and savor their big dog moneyline call. Listener can expect actionable analysis for Week 9, memorable rants, and a true reflection of what it’s like to grind the NFL market as a pro and a passionate fan.

Listen for:

• Tactical game breakdowns
• Betting psychology
• Rants and humor
• Real sharp market reads
• Unique camaraderie between hosts

Next up:
Catch the Tuesday episode for the full NFL Week 9 board breakdown, updated leans, and more best bet action!