NFL WEEK 9 Bets: Chiefs-Bills, Vikings-Lions, Cardinals-Cowboys, Colts-Steelers, Niners-Giants and more

Summary

Sharp or Square – NFL Week 9 Bets

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: October 28, 2025
Episode: NFL WEEK 9 Bets: Chiefs-Bills, Vikings-Lions, Cardinals-Cowboys, Colts-Steelers, Niners-Giants and more

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Overview

In this episode, betting expert Chad Millman and pro gambler Simon Hunter dive into the NFL Week 9 slate, breaking down the sharp vs. square angles for a range of matchups—including marquee games like Chiefs-Bills, Vikings-Lions, and primetime spots. They're joined by producer Matt Mitchell (returning to the show), who adds levity and behind-the-scenes color. The crew discusses major betting traps, public vs. sharp money, injury news, and key handicapping trends, all with a sharp-leaning perspective but a healthy dose of skepticism in a week full of "trap" lines.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

Opening Banter: Sports Moments, Producer Matt Returns

• Memorable Sports Moments (03:49)
  • Chad and Simon debate which sports “walk-off” moment is greatest.
  • Simon: "My son and I, different generations, both chose the game seven walk-off home run in the World Series. The anticipation is just greater." (05:02)
• Baseball's Comeback & Star Talk (06:16)
  • Praise for Ohtani: "He's just a living legend… invented something that never existed before." – Chad (06:53)
• Matt Mitchell Returns (08:11)
  • Brings humor with classic show drops and a "voicemail from Patrick Mahomes."
  • Matt: “Every day is a waking nightmare… Thank you for haunting both this life and my afterlife to follow in hell.” (10:57)

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Philosophies & Betting Mindset: The "Trap Week" (14:41)

• Trap Lines and Public/Favorite Spots
  • Simon: "We might have to call this trap week, Chad." (14:41)
  • Chad: "The public… is gonna catch up to you, and this week is lining up to catch people." (14:59)
• Market Overview
  • Week 8: Public favorites dominated (10–2 or 11–2), but the hosts caution that “chalky” weeks are usually followed by weeks where underdogs bounce back.

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Matchup-by-Matchup Breakdown

Thursday Night Football: Ravens at Dolphins (13:30)

• Line: Ravens -7.5
• Analysis:
  • Simon is wary of betting a rested but "out of rhythm" Lamar Jackson; notes all the money on Baltimore, yet line hasn’t moved.
  • Chad: “Minus seven and a half… is just totally, totally aggressive. Priced-in line. Feels like too much respect for a team from last year, not a team for this year.” (18:22)
• Leans: Value on Miami +7.5, sprinkle on Dolphins ML if taking the points.

Bears at Bengals (22:15)

• Line: Bears -2.5
• Notes: Professionals early on Bears due to Bengals’ pass rush woes and injury concerns.
  • Chad: “Bears under three to me, I just love.” (24:09)
  • Simon flags need for Flacco and Hendrickson injury clarity.

Falcons at Patriots (25:10)

• Line: Patriots -5 (bumped from 3.5)
• Wiseguy money moved it up; clarity on injuries needed (Penix, Drake London, Jesse Bates).
• Chad: “If this is, you know, a fully healthy Falcons team, this number is inflated.” (26:28)

Chargers at Titans (27:56)

• Line: Chargers -9.5
• Analysis: Titans decimated by injuries; Simon leans heavily Chargers but flags "constant battle" fading Tennessee.
  • Simon: “They are just such a train wreck. … I will promise you I will get there on that Chargers team.” (29:10)

Vikings at Lions (31:21)

• Line: Lions -8.5
• Chad’s Choice: Detroit
• Breakdown: Lions at (likely) full secondary health, dominant at home, Vikings’ run D a vulnerability.
  • Simon: “Every matchup I’ve seen Goff play against this [Flores] defense, he’s had 30 points or more.” (38:01)
  • Chad: “It’s super chalky… biggest public play of the week, but I don’t care.” (38:04)

Panthers at Packers (40:41)

• Line: Packers -12.5
• Uncertainty over Bryce Young’s status; too big a number to trust Pack.
  • Chad: “At minus 12.5, I don’t have confidence betting Jordan Love at that big of a number.” (42:54)

Colts at Steelers (43:14)

• Line: Colts -3
• Simon’s Trap Warning: Colts “juggernaut,” but this spot feels classic Tomlin bounce-back.
  • Chad: “I can’t get there on Pittsburgh… This Colts team does feel like an absolute juggernaut.” (44:39)
• MVP Longshot Note: Jonathan Taylor’s MVP odds discussed (46:47).

Niners at Giants (51:50)

• Line: Niners -2.5
• Simon: “This line stinks… The books are not here to give out free money.” (53:14)
• Both love SF matchup-wise but leery of the “trap.”

Broncos at Texans (53:22)

• Line Movement: Early move toward Texans (now -1.5), likely due to Broncos’ injury to Surtain.
• Sharp Side: Houston.
  • Simon: “All the public love for Denver… Houston’s defense at home, they’re gonna perform well.” (54:14)

Saints at Rams (59:32)

• Line: Rams -13.5
• Uncertainty at QB for Saints.
  • “Rams aren’t a team I trust to blow out bad teams, do you know what I mean?” – Chad (60:24)

Jaguars at Raiders (60:50)

• Line: Jags -3
• Simon's warning: "It's the trap of traps. ... But I still bet the Jags." (61:19)
• Line feels fishy: Simon: “This number stinks. Such a trap game. Such a bad spot.” (63:31)

Chiefs at Bills (63:43)

• Line: Chiefs -1.5 (moving toward KC)
• Simon Says Pick: Chiefs
  • Simon: "This is crazy, crazy value in my opinion on a Chiefs team that is fully healthy [and] in incredible flow state." (64:03)
  • Chad: "I do not understand this Chiefs number. I thought this would be -3." (65:08)

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Primetime Spotlight

Seattle at Washington (68:05)

• Line: Seahawks -3.5 (moved from -3)
• Hosts’ Angle: Prefer Seahawks at -3, wary at -3.5 but likely still lean Seattle due to Darnold’s form and Commanders’ weaknesses.
  • Chad: "I just can’t find anything to get me there on Washington. ... Seahawks just seem like top four, top five teams." (71:07)

Cardinals at Cowboys (72:10)

• Line: Cowboys -2.5 (down from -3)
• Simon likes Dallas at -2.5; Chad would take Arizona +3 or ML.
  • Chad: “If it’s Kyler, shockingly, don’t mind him coming back in this spot. … at +3, the value to me is all on Arizona.” (73:40)
• Kyler “never lost in Dallas” stat (74:22).

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Summary and Leans

Strongest Leans / Picks (by Host)

• Simon:
  • Chiefs -1.5 ("Simon Says")
  • Chargers -9.5
  • Seahawks -3 (-3.5 tentatively)
  • Lions -8.5 (Chad's Choice)
  • Texans -1.5 (but both preferred early number +1.5)
  • Colts -3
• Chad:
  • Lions -8.5 (Chad’s Choice)
  • Lean Bears -2.5, Miami +7.5, possibly Giants +2.5 (if line creeps up)
• Both warn about Kansas City being a value side and approach favorites with trepidation in a “trap week.”

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On NFL betting traps:
  "Trap week, Chad… it needs to be though! The public, we talked about it, new age, we have adjusted. I still can’t believe we had a winning week when the favorites went 10 and 2." – Simon (14:41)
• On Kirk Herbstreit’s QB Injury Commentary:
  "Kirk, get out of my sport. Go back to college where they have drums in the stands during games." – Chad (36:11)
• On Lamar Jackson and Miami-Baltimore line:
  "Minus seven and a half… is just totally, totally aggressive… feels like too much respect for a team from last year, not a team for this year." – Chad (18:22)
• On Chargers vs. Titans:
  "They are just such a train wreck. … I will promise you I will get there on that Chargers team." – Simon (29:10)
• On betting chalk favorites:
  "It’s super chalky… biggest public play of the week, but I don’t care." – Chad on Lions (38:04)
• On MVP Odds for a Non-QB:
  "We agree he’s the best player in football right now, but if Mahomes gets that one or two seed… It just sucks for Taylor." – Simon (50:11)
• On Chiefs at Bills:
  "I do not understand this Chiefs number. I thought this would be -3. My model has it at -3.5. It’s still -1.5 at Hard Rock. This is crazy, crazy value in my opinion." – Simon (65:08)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 02:49 – Sports Fandom & Baseball’s Moment
• 08:11 – Matt Mitchell Returns, Adds Comic Relief
• 13:30 – Ravens at Dolphins Breakdown
• 22:15 – Bengals at Bears Analysis
• 25:10 – Falcons at Patriots Discussion
• 27:56 – Chargers at Titans
• 31:21 – Vikings at Lions (“Chad’s Choice”)
• 40:41 – Panthers at Packers
• 43:14 – Colts at Steelers (+ MVP odds)
• 51:50 – 49ers at Giants
• 53:22 – Broncos at Texans
• 59:32 – Saints at Rams
• 60:50 – Jaguars at Raiders (“Trap of traps”)
• 63:43 – Chiefs at Bills ("Simon Says" pick)
• 68:05 – Primetime Segment: Seattle-Washington & Arizona-Dallas
• 75:12 – Recap of Sides the Hosts Agree/Love

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Tone & Style

The show features sharp, witty banter, occasional digressions (especially on sports culture), and a forthright, sometimes self-deprecating acknowledgment of betting pitfalls. Both hosts are transparent about their uncertainties and disagreements, especially in a slate they both consider full of "traps" for public bettors. The return of producer Matt Mitchell injects humor and classic drops, contributing to the show’s irreverent but knowledgeable tone.

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For listeners and NFL bettors, this week’s episode offers a sharp, skeptical look at the Week 9 NFL lines—highlighting both betting traps and value spots, and reminding everyone: the lines that look too good to be true usually are.

Transcript

[Chad Millman]

This is an iHeart podcast.

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[Chad Millman]

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[Simon Hunter]

Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bat. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper Makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Milne and I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff, professional better Simon Hunter and hello. So I'm in.

[Chad Millman]

Chad, I'm a little worried. My life is peaking right now. It honestly could not be better.

[Simon Hunter]

Is it because of Tyrese Maxi and Edgecomb?

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, I mean vj, I think they set a rookie, not a rookie record, backcourt record for most points and assists and rebounds and everything through the first three games. And your Bulls are undefeated as well. You're 3, 0 as well between Vijay.

[Simon Hunter]

Edgecomb and Matis Bouzelis. I feel like we are in a golden age of fandom here. Obviously last night I wanted to bring this up for a second because I've got a question for you. Freddie Freeman with his second World Series walk off home run in as many years.

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[Chad Millman]

Show's going back before the clock strikes midnight. Freddie Freeman has ended it. It's a repeat hero with the last word on a game.

[Simon Hunter]

I asked my kid the other day and my kids, by the way, my kid turns 19 today and I say that because he's not anyone who grew up in the world where baseball was anything anybody was rooting for. It's clearly like below NBA and NFL in terms of fandom and in terms of audience and all those kinds of things. But I said to him, game winning, game seven winning walk off World Series home run, catching the game winning the game winning touchdown, scoring the game winning touchdown in the super bowl, game seven game winning shot to win the NBA Finals, World cup game winning goal. What do you choose? What did you choose? What do you choose from those?

[Chad Millman]

I mean the home run, obviously you can't beat it, but I'll always go with March Madness, last shot, I don't care. Like to me we missed a moment, I'm a Duke fan. We missed that moment with Butler Hayward half court, heave off the backboard. Just missed like that. That to me is peak. Like it doesn't get much better. 21, 22 year old hitting that shot. David versus Goliath. But I'm, I'm with you. The basketball one to me is peak.

[Simon Hunter]

Huh. I what's interesting is me, 54 year old man living in the suburbs, my son, 19 year old in college, wildly different experiences growing up as sports fans. We both chose game seven walk off home run in the World Series and I've been trying to think about why. And after the Freddie Freeman stuff, I realized it, it's about pace, it's about moment, it's about time. It's about you hit that home run and It's. It's like 15 seconds of anticipation and glory, right? Because you know it's going out. The entire stadium is on pins and needles. It goes out, everyone goes nuts. And then you got 10 seconds of running around the bases. And when you hit home plate, it is just the enthusiasm, the passion, the happiness, the enthrall of all of it just last longer. The anticipation is greater. Everything else is such a moment. Like you can't believe it. This you get to soak in it. That's why I think the game seven World Series walk off home run, easily the best.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah. And I told you and May's got to be careful. Baseball is having a moment.

[Simon Hunter]

I thought it's having a real moment.

[Chad Millman]

After Barry Bonds, I thought I would never see a player like that ever again. Like Barry Bonds. To me you can say cheated. We all know he probably cheated, but allegedly he's to me the greatest player ever. The guy, like they couldn't pitch him. You had to walk him. He was so incredible. Ohtani is just the ultimate. It's. He's the greatest athlete probably we'll ever see in sports for right now. I'm sure there'll be another one that comes along, but never see anything like it. Like he just. Even last night they interviewed him. I think he went four for four, hitting something insane.

[Simon Hunter]

A couple homes and double.

[Chad Millman]

They said, how you feeling? He goes, I need to get to bed. I had to pitch tomorrow. And it's like it's just an insane world we're living in. Like I joked with a buddy, we're big baseball fans. He invented something that never existed before. That's how you know you are a once in a lifetime game changer. And Otani, it's when you strike out the side to start the game. And then we hit a opening home run in the first at bat. I know Itani. So it's like the guy is just a living legend.

[Simon Hunter]

Ohtani Wembanyama, Shea Luca, Mike Mahomes. Like we are living in an age of unprecedented athletic ability. Listen, speaking of ability, we got a big announcement.

[Chad Millman]

Big, Huge.

[Simon Hunter]

Okay, okay. We went 3 and 2 last week in our five favorite picks from our Sunday morning show.

[Chad Millman]

Left a bunch of wins out there. Sorry, people.

[Simon Hunter]

We did. We did. It's like how do we go three and two when probably the best week we had all year.

[Chad Millman]

Overall, it isn't as we dodged. I think favorites went 10 and 2, so I'll take it.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. We won with the Patriots, the Texans and the Broncos. We lost with the Giants and the Steelers. For the year, we're 2416 through eight weeks with our five favorites. But that's not the news. A lot of old heads may remember our producer, Matt Mitchell.

[Chad Millman]

Who?

[Simon Hunter]

Matt Mitchell from the fighting city of Rochester, New York, the Paris of western New York, the prince of the Bills mafia, a made man, Milwaukee's finest. It's really old. Milwaukee and Matt Mitchell are the best representatives there are of Milwaukee today. Let's welcome back to the show Mr. Matt Mitchell.

[Chad Millman]

Well, well, well, look who it is.

[Matt Mitchell]

Outstanding. Chad Simon. It's wonderful to be back on these precious hallowed airwaves with you. I resigned my position at Action Network about five weeks ago. I am very grateful to our beneficent overlords now here at Voluum for taking me in. And now I get to play totally out of context, Chad Millman drops like this one.

[Simon Hunter]

That's Mac Jones right now. He's a witch nipple quarterback.

[Matt Mitchell]

We got Chad's favorite phrase.

[Simon Hunter]

Hit people in the mouth. Run it up their throat. That's it.

[Matt Mitchell]

And my personal favorite, dad.

[Simon Hunter]

Dad, I have an erection.

[Matt Mitchell]

Who can even remember why these were said in the first place? But now that I'm back in the saddle here, there's a new sheriff in town. I am thrilled to be here. Before I get the hell out of here and we get to week nine, which is what people care about. I've been at the helm before this season. I'd been at the helm of this show from the production side for about seven years. I love this show. I wanted to share something I've never shared before, and that is because Bill's Chiefs coming up this week, obviously big game for us Bills fans. The morning of the 2022 AFC Divisional Round game, the 13 second game between Buffalo and Kansas City, I actually got a voicemail from Patrick Mahomes. And I know that will come as a shock to a lot of you because I'm a nobody. And Patrick Mahomes is the greatest quarterback in the NFL. But for the first time ever, I'm going to share that voicemail with you. Are you ready?

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. Here we go.

[Chad Millman]

I want you to listen very carefully, Matthew. Before this night's over, I will kill. But before I kill you, I will make you suffer pain so unimaginable, you will wake up and beg and pray.

[Simon Hunter]

For the gift of death.

[Chad Millman]

But when you wake up in hell, you won't find peace. You know why, Matthew? Because I'll be there waiting for you again, Matthew.

[Matt Mitchell]

And he was several times waiting for me again, including this weekend.

[Chad Millman]

So.

[Matt Mitchell]

So shout out. Patrick Mahomes. Thank you for haunting both this life and my afterlife to follow in hell.

[Simon Hunter]

Well, listen, Matt, we're so glad to see your face. It wasn't the same without you. I know people will love hearing all of the ridiculous drops. They will get to enjoy a timeless and evocative experience in audio, which is your love. Now we can, like, talk about the bills and their tragedy of a season that is about to unfold. And we can do it with you in our heads and reference the fact that this is. This is unbelievably painful for you.

[Matt Mitchell]

Every day is a waking nightmare. If anyone out there has any questions, complaints, want to voice displeasure in any specific way on Twitter. Oh, boy, Uncle Mitch. Oh, boy, Uncle Mitch. You can say whatever you want to me and I'll make sure it gets filtered up the chain. So feedback is always a gift. Best of luck, boys.

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Go outside, nerd.

[Simon Hunter]

Get out.

[Matt Mitchell]

Go.

[Simon Hunter]

I ain't got time to be distracted.

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By your worthless chime. Is gone.

[Simon Hunter]

I will. Look, we're going to talk about this Kansas City Buffalo game as we get into it. This is the Tuesday show. We're going to review the entire slate. We're going to check out that Sunday AM show if you want the games. That will be our official file after we've had a chance to review the latest moves and injuries. There have definitely been lots of breaking moves, late breaking moves on Sundays that have impacted our picks this season. Don't forget you can get the shows at Sherpasquare on YouTube. Go subscribe and like the video download from Sherper Square on Apple Pods, Spotify, wherever you get your pods.

[Chad Millman]

Okay, well, let me just say two off the top. Matt Mitchell is here. Like he said, if you guys want to talk to him, get on social media. On Twitter, Chad, he's. He's running our account. I mean, me and Chad, we're not the biggest Twitter guys, but Matt Mitchell's on Sharper Square on Twitter, posted our videos. Everyone out there, we really appreciate spreading the word. I mean, they can't see your likes anymore on Twitter. People like all of our videos. Keep. Keep giving us love. We appreciate it. Yeah, like on YouTube, everything. We love the YouTube love. If you want the real authentic show, you want Matt Mitchell with the amazing drops, got you out the podcast. The podcast version, it's. It truly is the best version. We do want your clicks on YouTube. But Matt with the drops, it's. It's the third piece. We need it for the show. It's what makes the show so great. So if you haven't checked out the podcast version, check it out. It's. It's definitely unique. With Matt's drops, we love, we love.

[Simon Hunter]

That Matt Mitchell is back in charge. All right, let's kick things off with Thursday Night football. Amazon Prime 8 15. Here's my question. The real bet that I wanted to make which already the cat's out of the bag. John Harbaugh will definitely and clearly announce his starting quarterback in advance of this game. Yes. Was minus 1,000. No was off the board. I mean look, it's priced in. The Ravens opened at seven and a half point favorites. They continue to be seven and a half point favorites. Part of me feels like we're getting value here because if not for the short week and like how the home teams have been doing in these games, I do think anecdotally betting the home favorite has been betting has been better than betting the home underdog. And now we're basically getting Lamar Jackson off of what is it, five weeks of rest against a Dolphins defense that against the run other than this past week has truly been horrific and the Falcons were not at full strength. So talk me off of betting the Ravens.

[Chad Millman]

We might have to call this trap week. Chad.

[Simon Hunter]

Traps, by the way.

[Chad Millman]

Traps.

[Simon Hunter]

It feels like that right?

[Chad Millman]

It needs to be though like this. The public we talked about to new age and we. We have adjusted. I mean last week proved that. I still can't believe we had a winning week when the favorites went 10 and 2. Whatever. It was something insane like that.

[Simon Hunter]

I think it was 11 and 2 and they won by. Yeah after last and they all won by an average of like 11 points or something like that.

[Chad Millman]

I mean our moneyline run Robin if we just could have just gave it on the spread. We didn't even need like that's how chalky this. This past week was. So I just. Everyone out there, you can keep getting away with it but it's going to catch you in this week is line up to a week to catch people here and this started off with this game. I can't tell people to back like you just said. Lamar hasn't played in five weeks which is good. He's rested but he's also totally out of rhythm. So this is the perfect team to get in rhythm against. He could do it. I'm not going to force us to make this one of our five or one of My favorite bets. But like you're telling me I'm getting Miami plus seven and a half to at home against a Ravens defense that I still think is highly suspect. Like you said. I mean I went back and watched the Caleb game. There were opportunities there, there were plays to be made. He just had an off day. This is to his environment. It's at home. As you know, much as I don't want to give him credit when he plays bad defenses, you know that scheme, that run scheme they have, it all works, right? So that was the biggest thing I took away too from that game last week was just Van Noy. I know it's not the biggest name. He's an older guy. Him not him being injured and the Ravens not having true pass rushers. That's like a real thing. There's. There was no guy that scared you. I mean, you know that. But yeah, last week he had time. Like it's just him doing stupid stuff and missing throws is why they didn't work last week. So I, I am shocked to see all the money, all the tickets, everything right now is on this Raven side. Like I don't know you. I feel like I got away with one last week with that one. We, we kind of stole it.

[Simon Hunter]

We. Well look, we totally got away with it last week. You know, even down to the very last play of the game. We talked about it on Sunday. The Bears still easily could have gotten in the back door because you could have seen them going for two after scoring a touchdown and making this a 30 to 24 game. We got way, way lucky with that game. But that also tells me something. The fact this number hasn't moved off of the seven half after the news about Lamar basically being set, basically being said he's going to be the starter and that all the money and the tickets are coming in on the Ravens. This number hasn't moved. Tells me that somebody somewhere likes the.

[Chad Millman]

Dolphins aggressively which is shocking because like I, as much as I get it, like I talk about this is a nice to a spot. It's like we, we are talking about back in a Dolphins team after a huge road win when the whole house on fire.

[Simon Hunter]

We're not talking about it.

[Chad Millman]

So I just, I'm on Miami. I'm just, I, I can't get over as someone that's taking a position now on the Ravens obviously a couple weeks ago to win their division, everything like that. This is no doubt a must win game, but this is the type of game that does trip up this type of team. So you can get plus 330 plus, you know, 340 right now. Miami's money line, if you're, if you're taking the plus seven and a half, you have to sprinkle a little bit on that Miami money line. It's just a weird spot. It's a short week on the road for a Ravens team that has a quarterback that is not in any type of sync or flow with the offense. So if this was, if Lamar had played this past week and this was a Sunday game, I think this is a worthy number. Minus seven and a half after all those things is worthy. No, no game and a short week for this Ravens team that, you know, they're not a juggernaut. This is not Ravens of last year. This is a team hanging on by what feels like a thread right now. This Ravens team minus seven and a half is just totally, totally aggressive. Priced in line. Feels like too much respect for a team from last year, not a team for this year. So again, another, another time where I just am shocked the books have opened this, but like Chad said, the fact they haven't budged it shows the books and some betters are taking very big positions on this Miami team.

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[Simon Hunter]

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[Chad Millman]

See paypal.com promoterms subject to approval. Learn more at paypal.com payin4paypal inc.nmls910457 all right.

[Simon Hunter]

Chicago at Cincinnati. The Bengals are two and a half point underdogs. The professionals came in on the Bears pretty early and they should absolutely eat against this team right now. Joe Flacco and Trey Hendrickson both considered day to day. Flacco with the shoulder, Henderson with the hip. He did not play in the latter half of that game. They can't get a pass rush, their last in the league in pass rush win rate, which is basically how you how fast you can get to opponents or beat opponents off the line on passing downs. The Bengals defense gave up 260 yards rushing to the New York Jets. I would think after last week, whether they were playing the Bengals or they were playing the number one rushing defense in the NFL, Ben Johnson is not interested in putting the ball In Caleb's hands in moments of leverage. He wants the Bears to dominate on the ground. That's how he has built his career. Just because the Lions used to score a lot of points doesn't mean that they were just a pass happy team. They dominated on the ground. That's what he wants the Bears to do. We saw the Bears do that during their win streak. This has got good opportunity to get back to that. So it, it makes sense to me that the money has already come in on the Bears and with. I kind of. I need more intel on Flacco and Hendrickson but the Bears under three to me. I just love, I love so many favors this week and you said it's trap week and I know but the Bears are the side here.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah and I honestly was going to be all over the Bengals. This was going to be a nice bounce back spot for but Flacco is truly banged up. I don't know if people looked at this depth chart. You don't want to see what's behind them. You don't want those guys coming here. So yeah, between these two teams and all their injuries, I need to know who's back in the spare secondary and.

[Simon Hunter]

Not a lot of people. It's bad.

[Chad Millman]

Right. So I mean that's the thing. It's like again we have to give up picks here. You know the over is probably the spot where most people are going to go but I don't know how you can take a position on that over or side or anything like that without knowing what Flacco's health is. So you're right like if you're going to make an early bet here and you have to make a play. Bears -2 and a half. That to me is the safest regardless of what's going to happen going forward of a bet right now compared to a Bengals team where if it is no Flacco, this could easily bump up to four or five, you know, another two or three points. So yeah, this, this early line value, your early read here is definitely right on this Bears team.

[Simon Hunter]

Atlanta at New England. This number has bumped down from five and a half to five at Hard Rock. Bet there's still a bunch of five and a halfs out there. It originally moved on Sunday two points from three and a half up to five and a half. That was wise guy money moving the number and totally made sense. He would just seen a Falcons team very shorthanded. No Penix, no Michael Penix, no Drake London. They were without Zach Harrison who's their leading pass rusher on a very bad pass rush. They lost Jesse Bates midway through the game, so you could see why the number moved and why the wise guys pounced on it. Also, the Drake May phenomenon continues. Even when he was sacked five times, he was still throwing bombs and breathing touchdowns. But I understand the buyback. I haven't gotten confirmation on who's going to be playing for the Falcons. If I knew it was going to be Penix, if I knew Drake London was going to be playing, if I knew Jesse Bates was definitely going to be back. Zach Harrison is still questionable. He's the only guy who's gotten any pressure on this defense. I'd be more comfortable paying playing the Falcons, but until I know who's playing, I kind of can't play this.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, but it's another game where we're supposed to play the Falcons. This is probably supposed to be three, three and a half line and you know, it's, it's just a tough spot for us where it's like we don't know the health of any of these guys. I can't, I have no, no doubt that even if Kirk is cleared, I don't know if I'm even want to bet it. Maybe if it gets up to seven and a half or some key number like that, I can bet on Kirk. But he just looks so bad, so out of sync last week and just someone that's not. You look like someone has not been practicing with the ones right. He just did not look comfortable at all running that offense and everything suffered because of that. They couldn't run the ball either against a horrible run defense because the defense knew we can just stack the box, make Kirk try to beat us. So I'm with you, not going to force it. Even though it's this New England stuff is just insane. You look at their last couple games, they're playing like a top two top three AFC team right now. They're just an absolute juggernaut. So yeah, I'm not in a rush to stand in front of them unless I have a good number and I know the health of this Falcons team. But yeah, everyone can tell if this is, if this is Penix and this is, you know, a fully healthy Falcons team, this number is inflated. But as we sit here right now, properly priced, like if this is what you're looking for, a Drake May versus Kirk Cousins. Yeah, I would take the Patriots here and tell you this. Hard Rock is the only book at five. Every other book is five and a half. So if you want the best Number on the Patriots. Hard Rock has it.

[Simon Hunter]

Los Angeles Chargers visiting the Tennessee titans. The number's nine and a half. It's dropped down from 10. So some brave, brave soul professional syndicate, I don't know what has come in on the Tennessee Titans. It's a big number to cover for our oft injured, underperforming heroes in Los Angeles. But this is the week we bet them. Right when they are road favorites against a terrible team after we didn't bet them as home favorites against a decent team. Should be an autoplay for us on the Chargers, the team we are constantly chasing and never getting right. And it turns out this will be the Titans week to actually play like an NFL team and cover the spread. So I, I, I just feel like on the field I know what I should do mathematically, I know what I should do emotionally and spiritually. I kind of just don't want to do anything with this. And I know I'll find things I like more.

[Chad Millman]

No, I'll be in a constant battle every week trying to get Chad to fade. This Tennessee team and you missed it last week. Should have been all over the Colts. We missed it. And same thing here with the Chargers. What, what is there to back this Tennessee team? They are down their number one and number two corners, which you can say it's not that big of a deal. The number one corner, a guy they paid off the Chiefs for millions and millions of dollars, That's a big deal. Your number one run defender, Jeffrey Simmons being out, that's a huge deal. So if it's no Ridley again, no Jeffrey Simmons, like, they're done all these major pieces and they're already a terrible team with bad coaching, not minus nine and a half. I will promise you I will get there. I will get there on that Chargers team. No doubt about it. So, yeah, I, I would love to hate on the Chargers and be like, you're right, this is probably a Titan spot, but I still think the books are just, I see clearly now. I, I feel like we were just so blind last year and I just as someone that's just been fading this Tennessee team, it's the best. It is just the best. They are just such a train wreck. Everything about them is like, even their coaching decisions. Like, they had a couple punts last week where it's like, does this guy not understand he's playing? It's a cold team that's just going to keep scoring against them. Like you can be fourth and four from your own 20 and it's a seven point game. You should be going for a Tennessee. You don't have a functional defense right now. So yeah, Chargers, I'm with you. That was last week was their best game of the year. I could see them keep rolling here. This Charger team just feels like another great matchup for them where they want to run the ball and there's just no defenders downfield that can stop lad McConkey, Keenan Allen, like that type of, I mean, the tight end. Now for the Charge Dolphins, a stud. This rookie died around that.

[Simon Hunter]

Gadsden. I used to love Arande Gadsden when he played for the Dolphins. Yeah, he had, he had massive hands and was so good at catching the ball. Huge, huge fan of Arande Gaston.

[Chad Millman]

So, yeah, just I, I, I, I get where you're coming from. It's like, is this line too big? I don't think it is. So I'll grab the nine and a half. Life still can. And I think this gets back up to ten. Ten and a half.

[Simon Hunter]

Minnesota at Detroit. Detroit is an eight and a half point favorite. Very excited to hear your response to my analysis of this game because the first thing you said off the top of the show, as soon as you said that it's trap week, my mind immediately went to this game. And I don't care because Chad's choice, presented by Hard Rock Bet is going to be the Detroit Lions.

[Chad Millman]

Are you sure you want to do this? Are you willing to make a choice?

[Simon Hunter]

A choice. We can't run from who we are.

[Chad Millman]

Sharp dudes can just see it, you know what I mean?

[Simon Hunter]

And when I bet this on Sunday night, I felt great because I got it 8.5. By Sunday night, it was up to nine and a half and it seemed like it was just going to steam more aggressively across the board. And then Monday, it started dipping down. It got back to nine, it got back to eight and a half. And it's kind of just steady at eight and a half right now. And I truly don't get it. Like, we're talking about a Minnesota Vikings team that has kept J.J. mcCarthy on the bench. He may or may not have been ready, but it's an awfully long time for the injury that he had. And they rolled out Carson Wentz, who was playing with torn labrum, separated shoulder going out there against the Chargers in agony. Now they're bringing JJ McCarthy back against alliance pass rush that is fierce against a line secondary that is getting Brian Branch back from suspension. Kirby Joseph back from injury, Terry and Arnold back from injury. They are at home. Christian Derrisa left the game last week for the Vikings with a knee injury. The Lions rushing game, we know it's elite. We know that Dan Campbell and Jared Goff at home covered at about a 70% clip. And everyone talks about how great the Vikings defense is and their pass defense is good. The rush defense is bad. Not mediocre. Not, you know, not something where, oh, they're just not as good as the pass defense. It's just a bad rush defense. It's bottom 10 and multiple advanced analytics categories that, that bring all of the numbers together to give you a holistic look at the rush defense. So I know you're going to tell me it's a trap. I'd walk into this trap all day. Give me the.

[Chad Millman]

No, not really, though. It's. It's the Vikings on the road with a rookie, technically a rookie, starting quarterback. Right? It's what it is. Third start or second start, so it's not. There's other games way more stinky than this one. I'm with you on the lines. I have us at 10, technically, getting a point and a half of value. The one bone I do have to pick in life. We all make mistakes and we all have to apologize. Kirk. Herb street, man, the stuff he was saying about Carson Wentz, talking about how he's not acting like a leader, he shouldn't be throwing his helmet and he shouldn't be in pain on the sideline after getting demolished. Saying he needs to act more professional. Okay, you expect apology today or yesterday. Comes out, this guy's playing two straight games with a torn collarbone. He. He like, he doubled down, doubled down into it. And it's like, dude, get Kirk Herbstreet and his damn dog out of my sport. I am now officially totally out on this guy. I didn't mind him because he is a wet blanket with an old man. Al Michaels. And sure, let them just talk about nothing for two hours. I do not care. It's Thursday Night Football. I am just so out on this guy now. I can't tell you how mad I was once I found out that this man was playing with these grueling injuries and this guy is just telling him to act more professional. It's like, is this guy out of his mind? This guy doesn't even know half these people on this team because he only watches Big Ten football and college football and he's. I just. Don't even get me started. Kirk Hershey. It's been obviously a rough night, and he hadn't had a lot of help, but to Me, when you're.

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When you're the captain of the ship.

[Chad Millman]

You'Re the quarterback, you got to try to hold some of that emotion in. And I know he's frustrated and he's hurt and he's hurt, but it's weak 7. You know, there's a long way to go, and some of that's just raw emotion.

[Simon Hunter]

You think that I would have more opinions on the announcers? Having been in media for so long, I don't even think about the announcers other than Trey Aikman, who's the best cuddle guy in the history of sports. But I go to bed at halftime and it's glorious. I'm not even listening to these guys.

[Chad Millman]

I am unfortunate. Kirk, get out of my sport. Go back to college where they have drums in the stands during games and all that. Like, I just cannot have this man in the NFL anymore disrespecting my former hero, Carson.

[Simon Hunter]

Can you go back to telling me how right I am then?

[Chad Millman]

Just, I. I'm with you. I love the lines here. Doesn't this feel like a great spot and like, great spot.

[Simon Hunter]

It makes going. I would. It makes no sense to me.

[Chad Millman]

Well, I wanted to dive into it because it's like, okay, maybe this is a Flores line, right? Let's. Let me dive into. How has golf done against these floors defenses in the past? And truly, really well, like going back to 20, 22, the Lions beat them 34 to 23. The. The next game, 23, they beat him 30 to 24. Again, this is with Kirk Cousins being the quarterback of this Vikings team, keeping these games kind of close. Okay, let's go. Sam Darnold year. That was a really. The first game they played, 31, 29. It was a really great game by Sam Darnold. In what world? Again, you're seeing a pattern here of 30 points every time against this floors defense. And then of course, we remember last year the decide number one seed golf, this Detroit team beat the hell out of the Vikings. He beat him 319 to be the 1 seed last year. So I'm with you in the fact that every match I've seen golf play against his Florence defense, he's had 30 points or more. Is. I really don't see this kid coming in here and putting up 2122 points against this Lions team. So. I know. Pretty shocking. Chad, I'm with you on it. I'm excited to dive into the trends here, but of all the quarterbacks that just don't like betting as big favorites, I've never wavered that I always feel confident. Yeah betting golf as a big favorite at home indoors. So if I've been standing on it and we've been doing I'll join you brother. I love your Chad's choice this week.

[Simon Hunter]

Fantastic. I love it.

[Chad Millman]

It's super chalky though. It's like the biggest public play of the week but I don't care.

[Simon Hunter]

Of course it's chalky but everyone's on.

[Chad Millman]

The same thought we do that's been.

[Simon Hunter]

Winning occasionally and I don't mind being on the right side of the public. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. Roll with Hard Rock Bet for a huge week of sports this week. NBA is back. You've got baseball game four tonight. Hockey. What a time of year. New customers can place a $5 bet and if it hits, you get not only your winnings but also $150 in extra bonus bets. Want to see what everyone else is betting on tonight? Who's going to homer top picks or parlays across any other sport? The Hard Rock Bet literally shows you. It's another reason to download the app just for the info. Tap Discover and you can see trending picks and parlays at any time. Plus, Hard Rock Bet drops new promos every day. Tonight you can boost your same game parlay for Toronto versus LA Game four and swing for extra winnings. No matter what you like to bet, there's new promos every day, so if you're listening to this later, there's no bad day to download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit payable in bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida In Florida, offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC and all other states must be 21 and over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1-833-play- wise in Indiana, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9 with it gambling problem. Call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia, Carolina at Green Bay. This number is 12 and a half for the Green Bay Packers. They finally played like the full and complete team that everyone thought they could be. Jordan Love completed 20 straight passes in the game. The packers outscored the Steelers 216 in the final 19 minutes and 17 seconds of the game. Do you know how I know it's exactly 19 minutes and 17 seconds? I don't because on. What was it? Sunday night the packers were up at halftime. I forgot what it was and it was 17. Pittsburgh was. Pittsburgh was up 17 to 6. Whatever. It was.

[Chad Millman]

17.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, something like that. 16 something. I think it was 16, 7. So I just been staying up way too late and I gotta go to bed. And so I go to bed at halftime and I'm ready to turn off the lights. I like to read for a little bit before I go to bed. It helps me fall asleep. And I say to my wife as I'm rolling over, hey, just type into Google, give me Steelers, packers score right now. And she gave me the score. She said it was 1914 with 543 left in the game.

[Chad Millman]

In the third.

[Simon Hunter]

In the third. I mean, yeah, you're with me. Thank you. And I'm like, okay, great. So when I woke up and So I was 35, 25, I remembered exactly what the score was and the time was when I went to bed. And by the way, I can't recommend going to bed at halftime of a game when you have a bet enough because otherwise you're spending the next three hours agita better's math stressing out and then you're not falling asleep when you have no impact on the outcome and you can wake up and feel better. And it's a two minute thing. Yeah.

[Chad Millman]

And obviously bad bet by us. Pittsburgh felt good at halftime like we were saying. But yeah, this again don't want to the refs. But basically the game. Chad stupid enough came down to Rodgers, thought he had an offsides. The refs didn't call it even though it was clear offsides. Playing his day offsides with a defense. They punt. Give the ball back to Jordan Love. I think it was third and ten blitz in his face. He has like a under thrown ball just off his back foot. Jordan Love and Tucker Kraft, a little bit of a push off, but just an insane play by him. Catches and takes the ball say 70 yards downfield. Tucker Kraft and after that point I think they scored like three straight times. Yeah, it was just over 21. It just Jordan Love finally got in rhythm and they were just unstoppable. And yeah, this, this is the type of game where even if this was Bryce Young, I'd probably still try to find a way to be in the packers like we always do. These adjusted lines, I'll find a way to get there. But at minus 12 and a half, I. I don't have confidence betting Jordan Love at that big of a number. And Panthers wise too much Unknown right now. I don't know.

[Simon Hunter]

We don't know about Bryce. Yeah.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah. And like I told you, there's no world I'm gonna put money on Andy Dalton again. So, yeah, I'll be patient here, maybe do some early teasers on this packers team, but the hope is if it is Bryce Young, maybe it drops it below 10, we get a better number on teasers. Whatever. Take a position. But this is a game. I'm just not betting this week.

[Simon Hunter]

Bryce Young ran on Monday, but we will know more about his status on Wednesday. Indianapolis Colts, the juggernauts at the Pittsburgh Steelers, plus three. So, look, we got caught in a rah rah Mike Tomlin spot on Sunday night. They were three and a half. We bet it. Did we learn that his rah rah mojo cannot overcome consistently bad pass coverage and aging defensive backs on Sunday night? Did we learn that it's a problem when the player generating the most results from pressure is not T.J. watt or Alex Highsmith, but a linebacker named Nick? Did we learn it's a problem when you're playing a lot of man coverage and a lot of single high safety against quarterbacks who can eat that up, including, by the way, Daniel Jones, who's been dicing up single high safety coverage. So that's a problem. That's a problem. I don't want to get stuck rah rah ing our way to another L because of what our history says.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah. Because this is definition of a trap spot for this cold steam. There are an absolute juggernaut, seven to one, playing against a Pittsburgh team that not only they lost two in a row, they've looked downright, like Chad just said, embarrassing, terrible, horrible, atrocious defensively in those games. So minus three on the Colts. I probably will still take that number as we sit here right now. Like it to me, Pittsburgh should be plus three. Plus three and a half, plus four up there, not just sitting right now like they are. You know, it's. It's a Colts number still at minus three. So I know it's the stinkiest, chalkiest bed ever, but chalk has been winning, like we've said in home field. It's just not hitting like it used to. And a couple games, I'm forcing us to take some of these dogs at home, but I just can't get there in Pittsburgh. That was all lined up for them right the first half. They gave up an opening drive, touchdown, and then they had a kicker, missed two field goals. And it's all there. It was just all lined up for that type of Tomlin game. The defense had rallied, they were playing better, looking better, and they just. All the offense and the defense just fell off a cliff in the second half. It's just like Chad said, it ain't hitting it like it used to. Like this is even go back two, three years ago with Mason Rudolph, we would be all over Pittsburgh here in this spot. But I can't get there. This Colts team does feel like an absolute juggernaut and maybe I can get us to avoid taking the Colts on Sunday, but as we sit here right now, it's like, I love this team at minus three. It just feels like they're still being undervalued by the market. They're just in what world is this close? We're going to need a total meltdown for Daniel Jones. And when you have the MVP is a running back, does that happen? It's just like you just said, they're gonna have to play single high safety to take away this run game. And Daniel Jones has been burning it, burning it. So I'm just trying to find reasons, trying to look at the numbers, fighting for Pittsburgh. Can't do it. Even though, like Chad said, every ounce inch of our body is telling us to take Pittsburgh here. And this is the definition of a trap. But I just once again can't get there in the Spittsburg team.

[Simon Hunter]

You just said the magic words and I love that when we're in a mind meld because we have not discussed this, but you said undervalued and mvp. And the other day yesterday, I was sort of thinking about this game and I was thinking about Jonathan Taylor and we've talked about a couple games this year. We've backed the Colts because of Jonathan Taylor, not because of Daniel Jones. So of course I had to go check the MVP odds to see where is Jonathan Taylor in the current race to be MVP after the weekend that he had against the Titans. Right now, the people who are ahead of Jonathan Taylor in the MVP race, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Drake May, Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield.

[Chad Millman]

Daniel, my guy hurts up there.

[Simon Hunter]

He's not up. He's. He's.

[Chad Millman]

Oh, my God. I think he's leading the league in total touchdowns. He's got one pick and he's had played the hardest schedule in football. Daniel, I'm telling you, Chad, this is. Oh, my God, I'm about to lose my mind right now because I don't look at mvp, but holy hell, Daniel Jones.

[Simon Hunter]

That's Jordan Love, Jared Goff, and then. And then Jonathan Taylor at 20 to 1.

[Chad Millman]

That's still honest. That's too high. You know, the Taylor.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah.

[Chad Millman]

Even though he's been incredible.

[Simon Hunter]

Hold on one second, let me. Oh, by the way, since yesterday, Jonathan Taylor has dropped from 20 to 1 to 16 to 1, ahead of Jordan Love, Jared Goff and Jalen Hurts, who was just behind Jonathan Taylor. But here's what's crazy about John.

[Chad Millman]

Three straight game, three touchdowns, right? He had some crazy record like that.

[Simon Hunter]

Three, three games, three touchdowns this season. The last running back. And he's had, I think three touchdown. Three, three touchdown games this season. The last running back to have that many was ladanian Tomlinson with five when he won the MVP in 2006. The only other running back to win MVP between 2006 and this year is Adrian Peterson when he had, you know, 2,000 yards for the Vikings in 2012. Jonathan Taylor's had 10 touchdowns in the past four games, the first time that has happened in a four game span since 2015. And this one from our good buddy Bill Barnwell at espn, who posted this yesterday in his always must read Monday recap column. Jonathan Taylor has accounted for 3.9% of all the league's rushing yards by a running back this season. His team is 7 and 1 and thank God, even in the past 24 hours since I looked at this, his odds have shrunk a little bit. So there is some semblance of common sense amongst NFL betters for recognizing Jonathan Taylor having an historic year. By the way, he is minus 250 to win offensive player of the year. So we know that's a better bet. We know that's the running back award. But it's just ridiculous that we become such a quarterback league, quarterback focus league that a guy who is doing things that is really carrying this team. I can. Jonathan Taylor is the most important player on this team right now and they're 7 and 1.

[Chad Millman]

And you say that and I get where you're coming from. But talk to a Colts fan, a real Colts fan, about what life has been like after Andrew Luck. It's just the quarterback position. They nothing's really changed. I know they added Warren the tight end, but you saw that team last year with Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor. Jonathan Taylor's had good years but nothing comparable to this. And that's just the difference a good quarterback makes because you can just run different plays and schemes. And yeah, this year I think you're spot on the fact that he is. We agree he's the best player in football right now, but If Mahomes gets that one or two seed and keeps putting up the numbers he's putting up, of course I know that's what sucks. So that's, that's the tough part because it's as incredible as he is. The Eagles won the super bowl And Saquon, our MVP, ran for 50 yards. Like it just. You can take that position away and you can win by 40 points in the super bowl if your quarterback can't complete the ball 20 yards downfield. It's just. That's never going to happen. Right. That's why the quarterback is so much more important. So it just sucks for Taylor. Like you said, if he keeps putting these numbers up, it's gonna make it a real decision because that's the only thing that Saquon was missing. He had the yards, he just didn't have the touchdowns.

[Matt Mitchell]

So.

[Simon Hunter]

Right.

[Chad Millman]

That's the last time we wanted, like Chad said, Ladanian Thomason, he had the storyline, he had the touchdowns. Adrian Peterson, when he won it, he was coming off a major knee injury. And like we just didn't. That year there was no good, like great quarterback. So it could line up. I'm not trying to tell people it's a dumb bet. I just. But I wouldn't make it just because it's. It should be 50 to 1. That's. That's the type of odds it really is in actuality.

[Simon Hunter]

All right. San Francisco at the Giants. Giants are two and a half point dogs. I know it's chalky did like the Niners here, but after playing the Texans defense, this is going to feel like playing against eighth graders because the only Rushdie worse than the Titans is the Giants. Literally the only one.

[Chad Millman]

I know.

[Simon Hunter]

And that's what the Niners are going to want to do.

[Chad Millman]

And.

[Simon Hunter]

And now all of a sudden, the Giants are without Cam Scatter. Boo. And I think it's a tough road to go down right now because that spirit, like their spirit was just taken from them.

[Chad Millman]

What is this line, though? And that's like this was almost. Simon says, I'm not forcing it because the Giants are the right side here. But I think it's going to get the plus three maybe plus three and a half because like Chad said, it's. It's going to be all love for the 49ers here. There's a lot of underlining numbers where this is a good matchup for them. And hey, maybe Purdy will be back and they'll move it even more. But my God, does this line stink. The holy hell Them giving us under a field goal here because we're. It's a no brainer niner spot after that bad loss. I just do not get this line at all. The books are not here to give out free money. So man, I'm with you. It's very tempting. My model loves the 49ers here. Like I have this right now, minus 4. Whether it's Mac Jones or Purdy, that's a point and a half of value. That's a ton of value.

[Simon Hunter]

So a key number.

[Chad Millman]

I just. I don't. There's so many games I'm already being a sucker on. I can't be a sucker on this one. This is. Giants are nothing at all for me.

[Simon Hunter]

Denver at Houston. Houston minus one and a half. This is flipped from Houston plus one and a half. You mentioned this Sunday night you liked Houston. We both bet Houston. And at plus one and a half the line is moved largely because Pastor Tane is going to be out. And so now you've got a. The basically the two, probably two of the best defenses in the NFL, especially when it comes to rushing the passer going against each other. And I would have felt better about the Broncos chances even though I had bet the Texans if passer Tang was playing because the Broncos are so good at getting extra pressure with five guys because they know Pastor Tane is on somebody and they can. They can not worry about that side of the field. I think that this is a big, big difference and I'm just glad I got the plus one and a half.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah. Once again, trap game. It's. The public is going to be all over this Denver team once again, just like last week, Houston will be undervalued where people are realizing this is one of the best defenses in football. They're a legit juggernaut and unlike Denver who are going to be missing guys, Houston's getting guys back. They're getting healthier and they should have hopefully Nico Collins back, which will be a big bump when they're down their number one corner in Denver. And Denver feels like a little bit of an overvalued team. I know they're still atop of the division right now. The people are feeling good, right? That huge blowout win over the Cowboys. But my God, I couldn't believe when I saw the splits on this game. All the public love for Denver. It just makes it so easy in my job. Like again, them not being scared about this line flipping just shows just like that last week with the 49ers. It's like that's real arms to you people and those professional money is moving a number three points this early in the week. That's a big deal. And yeah, just matchups on the field wise. There are ways for Denver's offense to attack this Houston team and exploit some things that other teams have this year, but it just feels like another spot where Houston's defense at home they're going to perform well against I think bone Knicks who struggled against really good teams that disguise blitz packages which is what Houston loves to do with d'. Amico. Ryan's he's just a really smart defensive mind. I mean Kyle Shane and talks about all the time. Him and Salah two of the smartest guys he's ever been around defensively so people know how much we love Salah. I say I have the same respect here for Dimiko Ryan. So Houston was going to make them, Simon says if they were still plus one and a half like Chad said, the number has moved. Still think there's value there. It's still under the key number of two something. It's a good bet. But I'm like you, I wish this was still us getting a good dog here. But let's be patient. Let's hope some smart group comes in on Denver. Maybe gives us back to being a dog here. But yeah, like you said, I'm not rushing to take it, but it feels like a really, really good spot once again for this Houston team.

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[Chad Millman]

The Novo.

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[Simon Hunter]

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[Chad Millman]

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[Simon Hunter]

New Orleans at Los Angeles the Rams are 13 1/2-point favorites. Just a really big number. We don't know who's playing quarterback yet for the Saints. Is Spencer Rattler's era over? Is it time for Tyler Shock? We don't know what's going to be happening there yet. There has been no word out of New Orleans. I don't know that it really matters. I also don't really want to bet the Rams anything outside of a parlay on the favorites at 13 and a half. They've won a couple games by pretty big numbers this year, but something about Like, I don't trust them. I don't trust them as being a blowout team against bad teams. Do you know what I mean?

[Chad Millman]

I think that's just because in the past they haven't been, and maybe this year is different, and they're just going to roll these bad teams, and that's, you know, something that's just fluky with them being this season. But I'm with you. I have honestly no interest in taking this game or betting this game. Like, same thing with that Green Bay game that I think you already talked about. Maybe we'll take an adjusted line here on la, but I have a hard time trusting either team, let alone this Saints team, that we don't know who the quarterback is. And that's a big deal to me, trying to bet it.

[Simon Hunter]

Good, because I really want to talk about Jacksonville and the Las Vegas Raiders. Raiders right now are plus three at Hard Rock, plus three and a half elsewhere. I'm not gonna lie to you. This came very close to being Chad's choice. Betting the Jacksonville Jaguars good at minus.

[Chad Millman]

Well, that's a trap. I want to make sure. Like, you're just like everyone else. It's the trap of traps. Jax.

[Simon Hunter]

Oh, yeah. I love the Jags here.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah. I'm just glad you stayed away.

[Simon Hunter]

No, no, Like, I still bet the Jags.

[Chad Millman]

Oh, no.

[Simon Hunter]

Minus three.

[Chad Millman]

Oh, no.

[Simon Hunter]

Look, the. The Jag's biggest weakness, as I've said many, many times, is Trevor Lawrence. He's completing 58 of his passes.

[Chad Millman]

I know. What is this line?

[Simon Hunter]

He's not a very good quarterback.

[Chad Millman]

What is this?

[Simon Hunter]

The Raiders defensive Backfield is atrocious, 27th in the league in expected points added. Their propensity for zone allows for much bigger plays in the middle of the field and yards after the catch. Like, if I have to trust somebody to improve over a bye week, and both teams are coming off a bye week, is it going to be Liam Cohn coaching up Trevor Lawrence and finding a scheme that allows him to be comfortable taking advantage of a terrible, terrible, terrible, terrible secondary? Or is it Pete Carroll trying to figure out how to do what his specialty is supposed to be, which is improving the defense? I don't see it. You say it's a trap, I say it's an opportunity.

[Chad Millman]

Could be. You're definitely right. Like, the minus three probably is the best number you're going to get on this Jaguar scene, but that's also why I bet it.

[Simon Hunter]

I knew it was going in that direction.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah. There's only one way it could go, though. I don't know who is betting the Raiders. I do not get. Once again this line hanging right now is so stinky. It is so like these lines this week are ridiculous. I just. I. I don't get it. Like is the books are now our best friends. I guess because this is. This is insane. They're. They're just. The fact they want to take for two days now all this money on the Jaguars at this number is just mind blowing to me because no one's betting Vegas. Vegas is one of the worst teams in football. They're undisciplined, they're poorly coached. Max Crosby was banged up before the bye week. Like it's just so bad and dysfunctional right now. So yes, you're getting a good number. My model agrees with you. But as someone that's doing this for a living and sees these lines every week, I. I can. I can't tell people to bet it. I. I could tell you the Jags -3 is the best number but I just. This number stinks. Such a trap game. Such a bad spot. I just cannot give out the Jaguars.

[Simon Hunter]

Coward. Total coward. It's just sad.

[Chad Millman]

Just a millionaire sports better. I'm trying to protect people here. This. There's all these games are so stinky. How easy they are and this is one of them.

[Simon Hunter]

Kansas City at Buffalo. Kansas City is a 1 1/2 point favorite and it's moving since they beat the Commanders. Do you have something you'd like to say here?

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, this is my Simon says but give me the Chiefs minus one and a half. I want to play a game Simon says this number is moving. Hopefully people can get it at this number. It still is minus one and a half as you see right now at a Hard Rock but a lot of books are already moving up to two and a half again. Luckily for me it's not super trappy. I was worried about this game when I first saw it. There are pros on the Bills. There are guys taking positions on the Bills. Thank God. Because I thought this was going to be the public everybody just like that Jags game pros in the public line enough to take a number that I don't understand. I do not understand this Chief's number. I thought this would be minus three. My model has it a minus three and a half. It's still minus one and a half at Hard Rock. This is crazy. Crazy value in my opinion on achieves that are fully healthy in incredible flow state. Their whole offense is just rolling like yeah that I knew Rice would be A big injection to that offense. You would never know he was coming off a major knee injury. It's been incredible how good he's been since he's been back. So just Chiefs team, to me still being undervalued. The Bills, on the flip side, I can't get over how bad Josh Allen has been this season. That Bills game, that was Josh MVP Allen, he has not been that quarterback in any game since then. It feels like every game I go and I watch of him, I don't put total blame on him because I do think they failed him with the receivers they've given him. They just don't have guys that can get open for the most part. And, you know, it's. It's tough for me to go against Josh here. Right. He's a home. I'm going to be a big home dog. But I don't think the Bills are good. And you talk about the injuries to their defense with Ed Oliver now being out again, it's like, okay, this is a team that struggled against the run, already has issues in the secondary, stopping good passing offenses and they don't have any type of pass rushers. So I just can't get there. This Bill's team, to me, it's not priced right. It's really priced. About Josh Allen being a home dog where he's, you know, excelled in his career. Right. Usually when you think of him at home, these type of games, he's done so well. But yeah, when I really dove into it and broke it down, it's like, what am I really backing here with this team other than Josh Allen? I couldn't find anything. So I, I know it's shocking. Both of us favorites for our favorite bets here we sit on Tuesday. But I do love the Chiefs on a short week on the road as a favorite. It's a weird spot for me.

[Simon Hunter]

It's a weird spot when you say it out loud.

[Chad Millman]

I know. I just. But also, it's priced wrong.

[Simon Hunter]

Ed Oliver's out. Like, that's a big deal. When you're saying Ed Oliver is out for the Bills and that's what you're sort of hanging your hat on as a Bills fan, that he's the best defender and he's out. This, this Chiefs team, defensively, offensively, they look so much better than they did last year. It's the exact right plays on both sides of the ball at the exact right time. They are not flustered. They really look like when moments of stress occur during the game, you can feel the tension across the field. Right. You can feel it from the players, you can feel it from the coaches. You never feel that from the Chiefs. You just don't. Doesn't matter whether it's Spags or Andy Reid. Like you just don't feel anything nervous or anxious coming from them because they are playing in such a zone right now. So yeah, we both love the Chiefs here.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah. Like even last night, a really stupid game where things weren't going their way. Right. They bought seven points to start the game and also tied at half, came on the second half, made the adjustments. They just dominated in every aspect. So like you said, they're easily the best team of football right now. And yeah, if you're thinking of, you know, how wide open the NFC is right now, which I agree with the afc. It feels like it's going to be the same old story. It's just the Chiefs just feel like they're far and above the best team right now other than injuries to deal rail this season. They just feel like there's such a complete team right now compared to what like you said they were last year.

[Simon Hunter]

All right, time to focus on our prime time spotlight. We're going to talk about these games, the standalones as a little bit of a package. Seattle at Washington. Washington is three and a half. It started moving yesterday. You liked Seattle Sunday when it was three. The line has moved in that direction. We would expect Jaden Daniels to be playing. Here's the real question. For me, this is a trust Sam Darnold game. The commander's rush D is, is mediocre but the pasty is terrible. Bottom five in every, in every category basically. So you know it's going to be about Sam Darnold and his ability to win the game, which he's done. I'm not discounting anything he's done. He's definitely won them, put them in a position to win games this year.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

But they're not going to be able to out physical this team which is how Seattle's been winning games this year.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah. And like we keep talking trap games. This is the definition of a trap game. Washington embarrassed primetime game. Sure.

[Simon Hunter]

At home with the quarterback coming back like.

[Chad Millman]

But that's why I wanted people to grab the three because it's like I just another game where it's like what. There's only one direction for this number to go. Right. So I hope people got the three. Maybe you can still find it out there. Like our, our tough choice would be are we, are we really back in Seahawks at my three And a half. We know it's super public, super stinky.

[Simon Hunter]

I don't know that we will like at three and a half.

[Chad Millman]

I'm still, I'm probably still gonna. I know I hate to say, I'm probably still gonna bet a chat. I hate it too. I, I'm hating myself for it because I feel like I'm doing good avoiding like that Jags game for instance, like. But I don't know if I can avoid this one like this.

[Simon Hunter]

All you're avoiding with the Jags is a win.

[Chad Millman]

I know, I know. But I feel like you forget the experience on betting on Trevor Lawrence and it's going to hit you midway through the third quarter when he has four picks somehow against a horrible Raiders defense.

[Simon Hunter]

But Trevor Lawrence, everything's going to be fixed.

[Chad Millman]

Look, that's what I mean though. When I'm, I'm betting these trap spots, it really is about the teams and them and like I feel confident in the Colts and Daniel Jones and that offense with their run game. Same here. The Seahawks, I think they have a good run game. The two headed monster. Sam Donald's playing at such a high level and their defense, like we talk about, they travel. They've been better on the road than they have been at home under the new head coach in the regime. So it's stinky. But I'm, I'm there unfortunately and we'll see. I'm excited to see what my model does with this line if it is Jaden, Jaden Daniels. But I have just priced him so low my model right now just because he's not the same player with the bum knee. And you saw it even last night, their head coach, I know he got them to an FC championship. He feels like an idiot in some ways. Like you can't coach the same way with Mariota as you did with Daniel Jones who was 80% on fourth down. So yeah, between the coaching match of all of it, I just. What am I trying to, I'm trying to get there in Washington. I can't find anything that get me there. They're just. Everything about them seems abysmal and the Seahawks just seem like top four, top five teams.

[Simon Hunter]

That's the challenge, right, Is that we're always talking about is when do you play the number, when do you play the situation and when do you play what you see on the field? To me this is sort of that classic spot where you're getting the team that just got blown out that isn't as good against the team that the public loves and you're getting the hook and if you get the key to the offense and Jaden Daniels back against a good defense, but he can be slippery. That's where we run into trouble for not having the imagination for the possibility because of the situation and the number.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, maybe I'll get there. But as we said right now, I'm all aboard. Seattle, get ready. Are you ready for some football?

[Simon Hunter]

Arizona at Dallas. Dallas is a two and a half point favorite. It's come down from Cowboys minus three. That one I don't get. I actually like. I like the Cowboys here. I like it really situationally. I like that Kyler will be starting good.

[Chad Millman]

We're on opposite sides this week.

[Simon Hunter]

We are on a lot of opposite sides.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, it's good though. We were agreeing too much.

[Simon Hunter]

I just think it's the right spot for the Cowboys.

[Chad Millman]

I just, you know my opinion. I don't think the Cowboys should be favorites or anybody unless they're playing some of the worst teams in football. Arizona, to me is not one of the worst teams in football. If it's Kyler, shockingly, don't mind him coming back in this spot. This is the perfect type of defense to get right against. They're just abysmal in every way. So, yeah, you, you're probably right if you want to get the minus two and a half. I don't mind that if you're going to get Dallas. But if it's three, has to be Arizona. Like this is not the type of game Dallas will be able to blow a team out with. I think Arizona be able to be competitive. Their offense can move the ball. Whether it's Kyler or, you know, Brissette, I, I have confidence this Arizona offense to stay, staying, keep it close with this Dallas team. But like you said, the Dallas offense, the trust of their kicker. If it's under three, okay, that's fair enough. They have the best kicker in football. That's a key number for a type of kicker he is. But yeah, at plus three, the value to me is all on Arizona, like the money line plus 130 as well. That's. That's the value I want to be at.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, I play both of these primetime games. I'm just playing the number three and a half and two and a half. Three and a half and two and a half. That's what I'm doing. I'm getting the home team at less than a field goal with a great offense against a not great defense. And I'm getting the home team at more than a field Goal with their best player coming back. Coming off a really bad game in prime time where I know the public's going to be against them again on a road favorite again.

[Chad Millman]

My only pushback would be Green Bay lost. Green Bay beat this Arizona team. They could have lost to him. They beat him 27 to 23.

[Simon Hunter]

It's pretty respectable with Jacoby Brissette and I think we talked about until Kyler Murray.

[Chad Millman]

Kyler's never lost. You know that, right? He's never lost in Dallas. Kyler Murray learned high school, college or pro.

[Simon Hunter]

Kyler Murray learns to start running the offense through Trey McBride and not doing as little pitter patter then I don't think this offense can be as effective as it was that we saw the past two weeks.

[Chad Millman]

I'm going to get to it. You cut me off, Chad, because you're a cutter offer lost to the Colts 31, 27. Getting close game. Okay, 22, 21, Tennessee 23, 20. Seahawks 15 to 16 against this 49ers team. So every game's close. You're getting plus three. That's my whole point here. It's like you're feels like you're taking a little bit of a. A bad spot here in Dallas where Dallas could win. You will. You will hate yourself if it lands on the 2. No doubt about it.

[Simon Hunter]

I am not a cutter. Offer.

[Chad Millman]

You did.

[Simon Hunter]

All right. The games we know, we agree on Detroit -8 and a half. Yeah, we're talking about the Chargers. We haven't gotten there yet, but at least we both agree on the team we'd want to bet if we get there. Another one like that. Indy minus three, we want to get there. Houston minus one and a half, we both like a lot. But full disclosure, we both got Houston plus one and a half.

[Chad Millman]

That's for pennies, though. Like I'm really betting into it as them as a favorite.

[Simon Hunter]

Most likely the Jags minus three. One of us loves, one of us knows it's right and is afraid.

[Chad Millman]

I'm just trying to stay away from.

[Simon Hunter]

It and is afraid to love it. And then Kansas City minus one and a half we definitely love. But I think there's a lot of games, including these primetime games that we're going to have to revisit on Thursday. I want to hear what the Shrubs have to say about where we're at. I feel like a lot of them are going to be with me this week.

[Chad Millman]

No, you were very public this week.

[Simon Hunter]

This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast network. We will be back on Thursday with with the games we're zeroing in on plus or Survivor pick our head to head battle Brass ball. So much more. Watch or listen on YouTube @Sharpersquare. Like the video? Subscribe to the channel. Also download some Spotify Apple pods wherever you get your pods. Rate, Review Subscribe Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.

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[Chad Millman]

This is an Iheart podcast.