Sharp or Square – NFL Week 9 Reactions

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: November 3, 2025
Episode Theme:
Chad and Simon break down their betting picks and decisions from an unpredictable NFL Week 9, reflecting on the chaos, numbers, and narratives behind major games like Bears-Bengals, Chiefs-Bills, Broncos-Texans, Vikings-Lions, Patriots-Falcons, and others. This episode is a candor-filled post-mortem on sharp/square bets gone right (rare) and wrong (plenty), with equal parts betting education, humor, and frustration.

Main Theme & Purpose

Week 9 was a “trap week” for the hosts and for many NFL bettors. Despite deep analysis, Chad and Simon were 1-4 on their top picks, with only the underdog Atlanta Falcons (+5.5) covering. The show dissects what went wrong, how public favorites fared, which teams and picks confounded expectations, and leans for next week — all while contemplating the difference between sharp and square bets.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Reflecting on the Tough Week (01:32–04:15)

• Simon and Chad went 1-4 on picks, with the Falcons as the sole winner.
• “We knew it was a trap week and we somehow took four favorites that we loved and got smoked on all four” – Simon (03:48)
• Pain of switching out potential winners (Steelers, Panthers) for games that ultimately didn’t cover.
• Emphasis on betting the number rather than narrative.

2. Game-by-Game Recaps

Falcons (+5.5) at Patriots (04:15–08:55)

• Falcons clawed back from a big deficit thanks to a freak fumble and crucial fourth-quarter touchdown.
• “That fumble totally flipped the game… I knew we were going to get lucky with this one, but…you need a lot of luck to go your way.” – Simon (05:06)
• Patriots’ toughness and Mike Vrabel’s coaching lauded: “He’s already at four [coaching wins], the guy is just pulling rabbits out of the hat.” – Chad (06:33)
• Drake May’s resilience and mistakes analyzed—promising rookie, but inconsistent.

Chargers (-9.5) at Titans (08:55–13:54)

• The betting curse: every time they trust the Chargers as favorites, they get burned.
• Chargers’ defense only allowed 6 points, but turnovers (pick-six, punt return TD) cost them.
• Chad: “They just needed to make one stop. One stop.” (12:41)
• Simon: “You can’t predict a pick-six and a punt return, unfortunately. So I think we had two really, really bad bets today. I think this game and Houston, I can’t get upset about it.” (12:41–13:44)

Vikings (+8.5) at Lions (16:21–19:52)

• Lions favored, but flopped. Vikings’ JJ McCarthy wasn’t special, but made timely plays.
• Flores’s defensive pressure flustered Goff; Detroit’s struggles on third downs (4-12) highlighted.
• “It’s going to be very interesting to look at this Lions team and think about how we handicap them next week, because now my head’s spinning about them.” – Chad (17:53)
• Simon: “They just laid a dud… Maybe it is they for some reason let down against divisional foes.” (19:52)

Broncos at Texans (-1.5) (20:13–24:10)

• Brass Balls pick: Painful loss after C.J. Stroud went down early; offense sputtered with Davis Mills.
• Texans’ D played outstanding, but offense stalled (87 total yards in 2nd half).
• “You can't win in the NFL if you’re only kicking field goals” – Chad (21:21)
• Simon: “I try not to get too upset about these ones… It’s why it’s gambling. You don’t want to put too much [risk], because injuries are a part of the game.” (23:26)

Chiefs (-1.5) at Bills (24:10–30:33)

• Both hosts leaned into Chiefs; got burned by Josh Allen and the Bills.
• Allen’s efficiency (23/26, 2 rushing TDs) vs. Mahomes’ struggles (15/34, under 50% completion).
• “5-0 Josh Allen against the Chiefs in the regular season. He lives up to these moments. He plays big and for some reason Mahomes just doesn’t.” – Simon (28:00)
• Simon admits this was “a bad, bad, bad, bad read.” (28:00)

Bears vs. Bengals (38:55–43:26)

• Bears rushed for 260+ yards; victory despite Joe Flacco torching the defense for 470 yds.
• “Every time they run the ball they seem to do really, really well. And they seem to be winning not because of Caleb Williams, despite that play at the end.” – Chad (39:46)
• Simon: “Caleb…is inconsistent. But you see little moments, this is why he’s the number one pick…you went from having the loser of losers in Justin Fields…to a quarterback that did make a drive at the end.” (41:10–43:26)

Steelers at Giants (43:26–44:23)

• Daniel Jones implodes: 3 picks, 3 fumbles (two lost).
• “He threw three picks, Chad. Yeah, and he had three fumbles, two for loss.” – Simon (44:02)
• Classic Mike Tomlin underdog win.

3. Betting Psychology & Lessons (Throughout)

• Regretful self-analysis: Simon blames himself for pushing favorites despite red flags.
• “I felt like such an idiot…these are not where we should be on these spots. We should have taken these ugly dogs.” – Simon (32:54)
• A week where “all the worst teams covered…bad teams cover ugly spreads.” (Simon, 38:55)
• The difference between a bad bet and bad luck, and why process > results.

4. Segment Highlights

“Shame, Shame, Shame” (44:29–47:49)

• Chad's shame: Texans OC Nick Caley for unimaginative red zone calls (“lack of imagination, a lack of execution, a lack of understanding of your personnel…” – Chad, 45:05)
• Simon’s shame: Himself, for “walking us right into” the week’s public traps (46:18)
  • “It's like being in a bad dream…you cannot control. Is truly the worst feeling is a bettor.” – Simon (46:18)

“Hero of the Week” (47:49–49:55)

• Simon: Chad for insisting on the Atlanta Falcons pick (which saved them from an 0-5 week).
• Chad: Drake London (ATL WR) for clutch plays and three TDs.

Super Bowl Futures Chat (50:24–53:17)

• Simon leans: AFC—Chiefs, Bills, Ravens; NFC—Eagles, Rams, possible Bucs if healthy (“Just the two teams with the quarterbacks that have been there, done that.” – Simon, 51:11)
• Skepticism for Lions, Seahawks, Green Bay long-term (“It’s gonna be hard for me to ever trust Goff in the playoffs…” – Simon)

Early Leans for Week 10 (54:30–61:50)

• Detroit -3 at Washington: Likely public side, but hard to resist.
• Ravens -3/-3.5 at Minnesota: “Great play for Lamar, who historically is just absolutely dominated NFC teams.” – Simon (55:08)
• SF 49ers +3 vs Rams: Wait for QB news, but pros likely to hit SF.
• Pittsburgh +3.5 at Chargers: Offensive line worries for LAC could make PIT a solid dog play.
• Buccaneers -2.5 vs Patriots: Valuable early number off the bye.
• Carolina -5.5 vs Saints: “Will bounce back…better number under 6.” – Simon (60:25)
• ATL +6.5 (vs Colts in Germany): Key number, but note international game.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “We knew it was a trap week and we somehow took four favorites that we loved and got smoked.” – Simon (03:48)
• “That’s why you just play the number. I knew we were going to get lucky with this one.” – Simon, on the Falcons’ cover (05:06)
• “It’s why it’s gambling. You don’t want to put too much [risk], because injuries are a part of the game.” – Simon, on Texans QB injury (23:26)
• “5-0 Josh Allen against the Chiefs in the regular season. He lives up to these moments. He plays big and for some reason, Mahomes just doesn’t.” – Simon (28:00)
• “It's like being in a bad dream…you cannot control. Is truly the worst feeling is a bettor.” – Simon (46:18)
• “Caleb…is inconsistent. But you see little moments, this is why he’s the number one pick.” – Simon, on Caleb Williams (41:10)

Important Timestamps

• 01:32 – Show theme and Week 9 record recap
• 04:15 – Falcons at Patriots breakdown
• 08:55 – Chargers at Titans pain points
• 16:21 – Vikings at Lions analysis
• 20:13 – Broncos at Texans debacle
• 24:10 – Chiefs at Bills debrief
• 38:55 – Bears vs Bengals, QB talk
• 43:26 – Steelers at Giants, Tomlin magic
• 44:29 – Shame, Shame, Shame
• 47:49 – Hero of the Week
• 50:24 – Super Bowl picks talk
• 54:30 – Early Week 10 leans

Tone & Style

Candid, irreverent, self-deprecating, and pragmatic, with deep betting analysis but no sugarcoating on mistakes. The hosts alternate between raw frustration and gallows humor, accepted as the nature of betting.

Summary Takeaways for Listeners

• Week 9 demonstrated the unpredictability of the NFL and how even sharp strategies can get torched by fluky plays and injury luck.
• Betting is a long game; process matters more than one week’s brutal results.
• Next week’s lines show opportunity, but the lesson is to respect the trap—and don’t be stubborn about betting public favorites.
• Trust process, seek value, listen to professionals, and always be wary of “sure things” in a league where ugly dogs often come through.

Final Words

Chad and Simon wrap up with hard-won humility, vowing to bounce back and encouraging listeners to dig into early lines with discipline. As always, feedback and listener engagement are welcomed—just don’t blink!

For full reactions, banter, picks, and breakdowns, check out the full episode on your favorite podcast platform.