NFL WEEK 9 REACTIONS - Bears-Bengals, Chiefs-Bills, Broncos-Texans, Vikings-Lions, Patriots-Falcons and more

Summary

Sharp or Square – NFL Week 9 Reactions

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: November 3, 2025
Episode Theme:
Chad and Simon break down their betting picks and decisions from an unpredictable NFL Week 9, reflecting on the chaos, numbers, and narratives behind major games like Bears-Bengals, Chiefs-Bills, Broncos-Texans, Vikings-Lions, Patriots-Falcons, and others. This episode is a candor-filled post-mortem on sharp/square bets gone right (rare) and wrong (plenty), with equal parts betting education, humor, and frustration.

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Main Theme & Purpose

Week 9 was a “trap week” for the hosts and for many NFL bettors. Despite deep analysis, Chad and Simon were 1-4 on their top picks, with only the underdog Atlanta Falcons (+5.5) covering. The show dissects what went wrong, how public favorites fared, which teams and picks confounded expectations, and leans for next week — all while contemplating the difference between sharp and square bets.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Reflecting on the Tough Week (01:32–04:15)

• Simon and Chad went 1-4 on picks, with the Falcons as the sole winner.
• “We knew it was a trap week and we somehow took four favorites that we loved and got smoked on all four” – Simon (03:48)
• Pain of switching out potential winners (Steelers, Panthers) for games that ultimately didn’t cover.
• Emphasis on betting the number rather than narrative.

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2. Game-by-Game Recaps

Falcons (+5.5) at Patriots (04:15–08:55)

• Falcons clawed back from a big deficit thanks to a freak fumble and crucial fourth-quarter touchdown.
• “That fumble totally flipped the game… I knew we were going to get lucky with this one, but…you need a lot of luck to go your way.” – Simon (05:06)
• Patriots’ toughness and Mike Vrabel’s coaching lauded: “He’s already at four [coaching wins], the guy is just pulling rabbits out of the hat.” – Chad (06:33)
• Drake May’s resilience and mistakes analyzed—promising rookie, but inconsistent.

Chargers (-9.5) at Titans (08:55–13:54)

• The betting curse: every time they trust the Chargers as favorites, they get burned.
• Chargers’ defense only allowed 6 points, but turnovers (pick-six, punt return TD) cost them.
• Chad: “They just needed to make one stop. One stop.” (12:41)
• Simon: “You can’t predict a pick-six and a punt return, unfortunately. So I think we had two really, really bad bets today. I think this game and Houston, I can’t get upset about it.” (12:41–13:44)

Vikings (+8.5) at Lions (16:21–19:52)

• Lions favored, but flopped. Vikings’ JJ McCarthy wasn’t special, but made timely plays.
• Flores’s defensive pressure flustered Goff; Detroit’s struggles on third downs (4-12) highlighted.
• “It’s going to be very interesting to look at this Lions team and think about how we handicap them next week, because now my head’s spinning about them.” – Chad (17:53)
• Simon: “They just laid a dud… Maybe it is they for some reason let down against divisional foes.” (19:52)

Broncos at Texans (-1.5) (20:13–24:10)

• Brass Balls pick: Painful loss after C.J. Stroud went down early; offense sputtered with Davis Mills.
• Texans’ D played outstanding, but offense stalled (87 total yards in 2nd half).
• “You can't win in the NFL if you’re only kicking field goals” – Chad (21:21)
• Simon: “I try not to get too upset about these ones… It’s why it’s gambling. You don’t want to put too much [risk], because injuries are a part of the game.” (23:26)

Chiefs (-1.5) at Bills (24:10–30:33)

• Both hosts leaned into Chiefs; got burned by Josh Allen and the Bills.
• Allen’s efficiency (23/26, 2 rushing TDs) vs. Mahomes’ struggles (15/34, under 50% completion).
• “5-0 Josh Allen against the Chiefs in the regular season. He lives up to these moments. He plays big and for some reason Mahomes just doesn’t.” – Simon (28:00)
• Simon admits this was “a bad, bad, bad, bad read.” (28:00)

Bears vs. Bengals (38:55–43:26)

• Bears rushed for 260+ yards; victory despite Joe Flacco torching the defense for 470 yds.
• “Every time they run the ball they seem to do really, really well. And they seem to be winning not because of Caleb Williams, despite that play at the end.” – Chad (39:46)
• Simon: “Caleb…is inconsistent. But you see little moments, this is why he’s the number one pick…you went from having the loser of losers in Justin Fields…to a quarterback that did make a drive at the end.” (41:10–43:26)

Steelers at Giants (43:26–44:23)

• Daniel Jones implodes: 3 picks, 3 fumbles (two lost).
• “He threw three picks, Chad. Yeah, and he had three fumbles, two for loss.” – Simon (44:02)
• Classic Mike Tomlin underdog win.

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3. Betting Psychology & Lessons (Throughout)

• Regretful self-analysis: Simon blames himself for pushing favorites despite red flags.
• “I felt like such an idiot…these are not where we should be on these spots. We should have taken these ugly dogs.” – Simon (32:54)
• A week where “all the worst teams covered…bad teams cover ugly spreads.” (Simon, 38:55)
• The difference between a bad bet and bad luck, and why process > results.

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4. Segment Highlights

“Shame, Shame, Shame” (44:29–47:49)

• Chad's shame: Texans OC Nick Caley for unimaginative red zone calls (“lack of imagination, a lack of execution, a lack of understanding of your personnel…” – Chad, 45:05)
• Simon’s shame: Himself, for “walking us right into” the week’s public traps (46:18)
  • “It's like being in a bad dream…you cannot control. Is truly the worst feeling is a bettor.” – Simon (46:18)

“Hero of the Week” (47:49–49:55)

• Simon: Chad for insisting on the Atlanta Falcons pick (which saved them from an 0-5 week).
• Chad: Drake London (ATL WR) for clutch plays and three TDs.

Super Bowl Futures Chat (50:24–53:17)

• Simon leans: AFC—Chiefs, Bills, Ravens; NFC—Eagles, Rams, possible Bucs if healthy (“Just the two teams with the quarterbacks that have been there, done that.” – Simon, 51:11)
• Skepticism for Lions, Seahawks, Green Bay long-term (“It’s gonna be hard for me to ever trust Goff in the playoffs…” – Simon)

Early Leans for Week 10 (54:30–61:50)

• Detroit -3 at Washington: Likely public side, but hard to resist.
• Ravens -3/-3.5 at Minnesota: “Great play for Lamar, who historically is just absolutely dominated NFC teams.” – Simon (55:08)
• SF 49ers +3 vs Rams: Wait for QB news, but pros likely to hit SF.
• Pittsburgh +3.5 at Chargers: Offensive line worries for LAC could make PIT a solid dog play.
• Buccaneers -2.5 vs Patriots: Valuable early number off the bye.
• Carolina -5.5 vs Saints: “Will bounce back…better number under 6.” – Simon (60:25)
• ATL +6.5 (vs Colts in Germany): Key number, but note international game.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “We knew it was a trap week and we somehow took four favorites that we loved and got smoked.” – Simon (03:48)
• “That’s why you just play the number. I knew we were going to get lucky with this one.” – Simon, on the Falcons’ cover (05:06)
• “It’s why it’s gambling. You don’t want to put too much [risk], because injuries are a part of the game.” – Simon, on Texans QB injury (23:26)
• “5-0 Josh Allen against the Chiefs in the regular season. He lives up to these moments. He plays big and for some reason, Mahomes just doesn’t.” – Simon (28:00)
• “It's like being in a bad dream…you cannot control. Is truly the worst feeling is a bettor.” – Simon (46:18)
• “Caleb…is inconsistent. But you see little moments, this is why he’s the number one pick.” – Simon, on Caleb Williams (41:10)

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Important Timestamps

• 01:32 – Show theme and Week 9 record recap
• 04:15 – Falcons at Patriots breakdown
• 08:55 – Chargers at Titans pain points
• 16:21 – Vikings at Lions analysis
• 20:13 – Broncos at Texans debacle
• 24:10 – Chiefs at Bills debrief
• 38:55 – Bears vs Bengals, QB talk
• 43:26 – Steelers at Giants, Tomlin magic
• 44:29 – Shame, Shame, Shame
• 47:49 – Hero of the Week
• 50:24 – Super Bowl picks talk
• 54:30 – Early Week 10 leans

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Tone & Style

Candid, irreverent, self-deprecating, and pragmatic, with deep betting analysis but no sugarcoating on mistakes. The hosts alternate between raw frustration and gallows humor, accepted as the nature of betting.

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Summary Takeaways for Listeners

• Week 9 demonstrated the unpredictability of the NFL and how even sharp strategies can get torched by fluky plays and injury luck.
• Betting is a long game; process matters more than one week’s brutal results.
• Next week’s lines show opportunity, but the lesson is to respect the trap—and don’t be stubborn about betting public favorites.
• Trust process, seek value, listen to professionals, and always be wary of “sure things” in a league where ugly dogs often come through.

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Final Words

Chad and Simon wrap up with hard-won humility, vowing to bounce back and encouraging listeners to dig into early lines with discipline. As always, feedback and listener engagement are welcomed—just don’t blink!

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For full reactions, banter, picks, and breakdowns, check out the full episode on your favorite podcast platform.

Transcript

[A]

This is an I heart podcast.

[B]

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[B]

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[A]

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[B]

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[B]

You could say versus the other big guys. @t mobile.com switch welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bat. We are part of the Volume Podcast network. This is the show that makes the square sharper, makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon.

[A]

Chad, how we doing?

[B]

Long, long, long walk up to the dark and cavernous third floor tonight because wow, wild day. Joe Flacco is 40 years old. He throws for 470 yards with a bad shoulder. Kyle Menangay, a rookie seventh round pick from Rutgers in the same game runs for 168 yards. Not even the most exciting things that happened in that game because it was the Bears winning with a touchdown with 17 seconds left on a broken tackle. The Bengals just could not stop anybody. We also had an NFL record field goal of 68 yards in the Jags Raiders game from Jags kicker Cam Little. Simon. So much exceptional work today except by US 1 and 4 on the day we won with the Falcons, we lost with the Chargers, the Lions, the Texans and the Chiefs. Last ones out were the Panthers who we decided to leave out in favor of the Falcons so it wouldn't have made a difference. The four games we were totally committed to ever since Thursday were all loserhers. Dude. Rough, rough.

[A]

Yeah. We knew it was a trap week and we somehow took four favorites that we loved and got smoked on all four or one win like you said. Your dog Atlanta that came through and it's never a good week where I think we had. I'm almost surprised if I had Pittsburgh in with the hook at three and a half. We switched them out for Carolina and then switched out Carolina for Atlanta. All three were winners and we left untouched four straight losers that we will get into.

[B]

We will get to our early leans. We're gonna get to how we did all in all of our picks. We're gonna get to your live comments from the chat. I'm sure it'll be blistering today. I let's. Let's just talk about the one that worked which was Atlanta plus five and a half at New England. It didn't look like it was going that well for us. They were down 217 in the first half and Drake may kind of looked on third down like he was becoming the scariest and most automatic play in football. But like always a freaky fumble leads to a touchdown. It's 21:14 at halftime. I don't know about you but I still never felt great about the Falcons in that game.

[A]

No, we got really lucky. But like we always say that's why you bet the number. And try not to rationalize normal thinking. Pennix, I mean he just made so many mistakes in that game directly was playing so much better and he gave us a gift. We needed that. Desperately needed. That fumble totally flipped the game and you know, London having three touchdowns again, I'm all about it. Like that's why you just play the number. I knew we were going to get lucky with this one. But you said it, you're down, you know, 14 points. Need a lot of luck to go away and I think it was a what a fourth and two. They get that final touchdown. It's. It was. It's just one of those days. So I won't complain. We'll take it. Glad we got there. And yeah like I always say, I try not to be stubborn when smart people are telling me I'll make a mistake and I listen. Like I, I just that when that the way that game started, that's what I was so scared of. Right. That Pennix came out just did not look in sync. Looked a little rusty. But yeah, big, big drives by him at the end of the game. It's. He needed the turnovers Right. But you know, we didn't. He didn't make the mistakes Drake made, did. Kept in that game. But once again, this Patriots team, it's. It's crazy how good they are. Like another game they won, probably shouldn't have won either. Like that's a game you kind of lose every now and then. And Drake may playing at such a high level. Rabel just not letting the guys have a letdown game. Pretty impressive. They keep winning these games. They probably shouldn't be winning.

[B]

Yeah, look, they. In the second half. They started the second half with a field goal. They're up 24 14. That's when I started to feel a little better because the Falcons did get a stand in that first drive where the Patriots went down the field and then they did stop them from getting in the end zone, forced the field goal. The rest of the game, the Patriots were interception. And then I think three or four punts, like they all of a sudden just weren't effective. And I don't know, you know, if you paid attention or if you noticed if Drake may definitely wasn't as effective as he was in the first half. But it also seemed like they got a lot more conservative. They were willing to let Atlanta try to get back into the game. Let's lean on their defense a little bit more. Christian Gonzalez went out of the game at one point, but man, the Patriots in the second half started to look like the team that was regressing to closer to what we thought they would be. But then they get away with the win. And again we put the over under on Vrabel and his coaching wins like two and a half. I think he's already at four. Like the guy is just pulling rabbits out of the hat. You know what I mean?

[A]

Yeah. And it was a game that Drake may as well as he played. Right. I think over 250 yards, two touchdowns. He had the killer pick.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

And he had two fumbles, only losing one of them. So like we said, they. A lot of things they try to give away. Like we talk all the time. It's just really hard to be consistent in this league and not make stupid mistakes. And they still rose above it. It's like you said, Rabel, it's really impressive what they've done. And like we keep saying they have an easy schedule, but it's hard to win these games and they just keep winning. So yeah, it's. It's pretty wild. Patriots being the one seed. It's not outside this realm. There's a path for them now. And because again, they keep winning these games, these trap games they shouldn't win, they keep winning it. That's, that's a really respectable team right now in this Patriots team. You know, if, you know none of us are gonna be betting them against Mahomes or Josh Allen or more Still, I'd be really excited if I was a Patriots fan. You're seeing huge, huge dividends right now, like you said in Rabel and what he brings to the table with this team and all the wins he steals for you.

[B]

Los Angeles Chargers at the Tennessee Titans. I think I said three times this week. Do you know what I'm going to say?

[A]

No.

[B]

Three times I said this week. This is the exact spot when we always play the Chargers entity is the exact spot where they always let us down. I don't think there's a team in the league this year where we are more out of sync with where we are betting them the week that they don't cover and we are afraid to bet them the weeks that they do cover this game. Their offense, their, their defense, I think gave up 10 points. Yeah, but they gave up a pick six on the second play of their first drive and then they gave up a punt return. So all of a sudden they're down 14 7. They should have killed this team. It shouldn't have even been a sweat. And they still had a chance to cover at the end of the game and let the, let the Titans sneak in the back door the first time the COVID The Titans have learned how to sneak through the back door in about two years. What? What? Are you kidding me, Simon?

[A]

Yeah, it happens. I mean we knew going into this was a public play. I think the most bet on public teams where number one was the Lions, number two Colts, number three Patriots and number four Chargers and number five is the Cowboys. So yeah, we just, we, we. We said it was a week that the public wasn't get hit hard. For some reason we have, we leaned right into it and thought we were smarter than the books and we got punished here. Their defense gave up six points, Chad. The Tennessee Titans scored 20 total points. So their defense in a game with the Chargers defense.

[B]

That's right. I was thinking that the second the drive that got through the back door, I was thinking it was a touchdown and it was a field goal.

[A]

But that's just like sums up. It's the bad luck we had today. That's just why we always talk about we bet these ugly dogs. Because that's the exact game you dream of, right? It's Tennessee, outplayed in every aspect, had zero business being in it. Stupid pick six, first play. First drop back of Herbert, just nonchalant through a pick six, his first play. And then they have a pun return. Like you said, 14 points. I don't know about you, but I still believe, because I'm a sucker that we're going to get out of it and somehow find our way.

[B]

I totally believed. And we were there. We were there. We were there after Joe Alt was carted off the field.

[A]

And that was my issue.

[B]

We were there after Justin Herbert was sacked six times by a team that had 29 sacks total in their previous. What is it, eight games. Nine games. Eight games. And they were still up by 10 with four minutes left. And at one point, the Chargers went up by 10 on a 15 play, 99 yard drive in which Justin Herbert realized, dude, I'm fucking sick of this. And he had multiple plays where he just took the ball and ran and didn't even pretend to slide. He's like, I'm 6, 5, 240, and I'm going to run people over. And he leveled, just totally trucked a defensive lineman to get. What was it, like a second and nine or something like that. And then later in that drive, had another drive to confer the first down and scored a rushing touchdown. Like, he's just. He just had it. So I totally believed it. They just needed to make one stop. One stop.

[A]

I know, but again, you can't be mad at the defense. They have six points in an entire game. It's just. It's. It's what the. It's how the books makes their money, man. The books. They knew it was gonna be a coin flip, come down to it. And I honestly thought the Chargers were gonna absolutely roll and blow them out. And we just. You can't predict a pick six and a point return, unfortunately. So I think we had two really, really bad bets today. I think this game in Houston, I can't get upset about it. It's just stupid football. Things just happen. Guys get hurt, you know, bounces don't go away. So, yeah, this one sucks. We got. We got hooked by the kick, but we've been on the other side of that with that dog millions of times. So it's just a balancing act here.

[B]

Was it a bad bet, though? Like, we. We got unlucky. That doesn't make it a bad bet.

[A]

I said it wasn't. I said we had two bad bets today. That was the Chiefs in Detroit. I thought this game and then I thought you said.

[B]

I thought you said we had two bad bets that were this game and Houston.

[A]

No, this one's just unlucky. Like I said, it's just. What are you going to do? Gave up those 14 points and still the outside chance and they just like you said, couldn't get that stop in that late field goal. Burned us.

[B]

Yeah. All right, let's take a quick break here from our friends at Hard Rock. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bat. This is the golden time of year when it's not just pro football, NBA, college football, college hoops and hot hockey all share the stage. There's always something to bet on. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet yet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a five dollar bet and if it hits, you get not only your winnings, but $150 in extra bonus bets. And if you're looking for an edge before you lock in, check out the Hard Rock Bet Stats hub. It's loaded with trends, streaks and stats to help guide your picks. Numbers don't lie and neither does the data in there. Check out the stats hub now and get the edge and bet with confidence. The Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook app is the only legal sportsbook for whenever you're in Florida. And it's also live in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois and Colorado. Coming soon to more states too. And Hard Rock Bet offers new promos every single day. So whenever you're listening, just open the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week, download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit payable in bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by the Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 and over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 833 playwise in Indiana, few or some you know has a gambling problem and wants help. Call 1-809 with it gambling problem. Call 1-800- Gambler Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia, Minnesota at Detroit. This was Chad's choice. I loved it all week. I was so sure with Brian Branch and Kirby Joseph coming back and JJ McCarthy who had looked terrible and who knows, may have been sitting extra weeks because the Vikings were worried and Brian Flores rush defense hasn't Been very good this year against a juggernaut rushing offense. Well, that all went to shit.

[A]

Yeah. Again, another game that just lines whatever it was, they just seemed like they never got off the bus. Right. It seemed like couldn't get off, couldn't.

[B]

Couldn'T convert their jones.

[A]

Yeah. And the Vikings just came out flying. And I would love to sit here and say we underestimated JJ McCarthy and he burned us. Let's be honest, it wasn't like this guy was out of this world. A lot of the stuff, I mean, I can think of a handful of third downs that were third and ten, third and elevens and he either dumped it off or had like a screen down. And the running back picked up the first down against alliance team that you should know better when it's a young quarterback. And I'm even looking at his stats right now. He was 14 to 25.

[B]

That's right.

[A]

143 yards, two touchdowns and a pick. I mean that's, that should be very beatable if you're a Detroit team at home. And like you said that Flores defense badmouthed him as, as much as I did, you know, tons of pressure on golf like we always talk about. If you move him off his spot, he's just not a good quarterback. When he has time and has, you know, everything's working the offense, he looks very smooth. But in this game he was never comfortable. And like you said, the running game never really got going. So yeah, bad bet all around. Felt dead from the minute the game started. Just immediately, everything was going the Vikings way. And this Lions team, even little things that did go their way, it was just never consistent. Like you said, they kept failing on third or fourth downs and kept punting a lot. So it was just a bad bet.

[B]

Well, look, that first drive Sam Laporta carried, you know, five people into the end zone from the five yard line and they looked perfect. But then they let JJ McCarthy go right down the field. And like you said, he was 14 of 25 and I think he completed all 14 of those passes in the first three drives. The Lions just, they kept beating themselves. They were 4 of 12 on third downs and one stat to think about their bottom third in the league in third down conversions. Right now they just have not been the same team when it comes to getting sort of success, letting first and second down success get them into position to convert on third down. So that's becoming an issue for them. And yeah, Brian Flores defense was all over Jared Goff the whole game. Every single time he Needed to get time to make a throw. He had no time to make a throw. And then here was the other issue. I think the defense had four or five penalties that converted third downs into first downs for the Vikings. So they were letting a guy who wasn't playing perfectly again, J.J. mcCarthy was 14 to 25 for 143. He wasn't a world beater in this game, but they won. And the Lions still had a chance to win this game, but they could not convert at the end. It's going to be very interesting to look at this Lions team and think about how we handicap them next week, because now my head's spinning about him. It's so hard to start thinking about these games like in the two or three hours after the game ended, especially after a horrendous day, because I want to love this Lions team and I feel like this was not representative of who they are.

[A]

Yeah, they just laid a dud. Two really big duds. They laid this year that divisional gaming and screen bay week one in this game. So it's. Maybe this is starting to get a pattern here on this team we need to be aware of. Maybe it is they for some reason let down against divisional foes. But yeah, I don't know next week that's gonna be hard to pass on that Oakland line on that Lions team.

[B]

I know it is. I was looking ahead to next week and I was already struggling with, oh, God, of course. This is what I want to do. Denver at Houston. Houston minus one and a half. This was our brass balls. And people were wondering, why is this our brass balls? Because it wasn't an easy bet to make. And the entire time during the game, during the game, that Houston defense, they were outstanding. They did everything they could against this Broncos team and they were really making Bo Nicks struggle. But if you are going to get to the 35 yard line and have six of eight drives end inside the 35 yard line, that is not a good look. So you got to figure out what you're doing with your offense because you can't win in the NFL if you're only kicking field goals. And that's what the Texans did today.

[A]

Yeah, it's. I can't take much from it. CJ went down, I think with 14 minutes left.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

In the second quarter. And our read was right. Right. The defense, it was a great match for them. Like you said, they played really well. And we still had a ton of opportunities to win this game with Davis Mills and he was. I don't know about you, how much you watched him. He was atrocious. Like you said.

[B]

87 yards on offense total in the second half for the Texans. Simon. I watched every excruciating second of that game. Because you knew the whole time, Bronco, the Broncos were going to get two touchdowns. Like, they would figure out how to scheme two touchdowns in that game. And that I just said to myself at one point, I'm like, they just need to convert one of these into a touchdown. Just one. And they could not do it. And if they had, they win that game. That's it. Their defense was playing so freaking good.

[A]

Yeah. And like I said, once he went down and I think the. The books reopened. Houston+4 and a half, +3 and a half. I was just like, okay, they're already telling us now we're going to need a miracle to cover this number. And we. It just never came. Like you said, you know, that fourth quarter magic Bo Nix keeps doing. It's a real thing. Right. He couldn't do anything. They get 11 points in that fourth quarter. That's. That's big time. You know, we were hoping for the steal, this one, but as soon as you went down, I saw that line move, I was like, oh, man. It's just. It's just not our day. This is. This is just the terrible spot to be in. We always talk about, like you said, the. The field goals, It's a new age. That's why these teams go for it on 4th and 2, because it's just. You're doing nothing, kicking all these field goals. And, you know, all they scored was two touchdowns in Denver. That was it, really. Those are the only two real drives they had the whole game.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

And that's all that mattered. And that, you know, last possession, Denver, I was praying Bo would throw us a pick. He had a couple leaving him out there, and he smartly realized, I just need to use my legs in this final drive. And, yeah, picked up a couple big first downs and it was just over for us. So, yeah, brutal loss. But, like, just like that Chargers game, bad luck. It's. I try to. I try not to get too upset about these ones. I get more upset about, like, the horrible read I had on Detroit or the Chiefs, where this one, it's like, what are you going to do? It's. It's why it's gambling. You don't want to put too much because injuries are a part of the game. And I don't know if you can think of another game. I think it was our first game this year we've really been burned by our quarterback getting hurt in the second quarter. So we've had some good luck.

[B]

We've been burned by dumb quarterbacks like Trevor Lawrence, but we haven't. Who haven't had the full access of their complete mental aptitude. But we have not been burned by a quarterback just being out of the game. And yeah, as soon as that happened, you know, it was, it was a bummer. And because. Because the Texans did everything right. They had a. The the Broncos fumbled a punt with like 30 seconds left in the first half deep in their own territory. Texans kick a field goal. Bo Nix throws a pick in his territory after CJ Stroud is out. Texans kick a field goal. At the end of the game. The the Texans defense, two great blitz calls flush Bo Nix from the pocket. He's got nowhere to go. On second and eight and third and eight, they have to punt the ball. With a minute 30 left, the Texans burn 30 seconds on the clock and gain four yards and punt the ball back for the Broncos to score the game winning field goal. I will have more on this game when it comes to shame, shame, shame. Because I'm so disappointed in this Texans offense. Whether it was C.J. shroud or Davis Mills, I don't think it's either of their fault. Simon foreshadow hint. All right, Kansas City at Buffalo. This Simon says we both lean into it pretty hard. You know, in the first half, Josh Allen 15 of 17 for 176 and 1. Tutty Cook, James Cook 11 for 64 on the ground. Kincaid and Knox, the two tight ends, 4 for 105 and a touchdown in the first half. And look, they completely flummoxed the Chiefs, like defensively that was the issue. We just didn't think they'd be able to stop Patrick Mahomes who's been playing so well. And they stopped Patrick Mahomes who didn't play well and was at one point under 50% completion percentage for the first time in his career in a game.

[A]

They struggled. But this was definitely just felt like a Josh Allen game. He took over that first half. You know, tons of doubt about him and his receivers. Even if his receivers didn't much today, those tight ends, those seam routes, they had this using the sideline with his tight ends, all of it was just working for him today. And you know a game in which you hold the Bills to seven points in the second half, you expect the Chiefs to do what they do and come back and win those type of games. But they couldn't score any points in that third quarter. They got, you know, the eight points for, you know, giving us false hope in that fourth quarter. And yeah, made it a one possession game. And it was there. The opportunity was there. But you said it. Mahomes 1534 for 250 yards. Just not going to get the job done right. And that, that was a game that, you know, as people keep saying and now it is true. 5, 0 Josh Allen against the, against the Chiefs in the regular season. He lives up to these moments. He plays big and for some reason Mahomes just doesn't. And yep, a bad, bad, bad, bad read. That's why I was so disappointed. Where it's like you just felt in the first half, it's like Josh Allen is just on right now and the most telling sign is like again, I didn't give up in the first half. But that they, they get the bolt, the one with whatever that is. 30 seconds left. He always scores those Mahomes always gets that. The double up was right there for him to score there, get the ball back, start the second half, they settle for three again from the one. Three straight plays, couldn't score, kick a field goal and then to start the third quarter to get the ball and they're three and out three now. It just wasn't our night with the Chiefs. That was just a terrible read. Again, I still think the Chiefs are a better team and you know, this Bill's defense, I still have a lot of questions about it, but these are the type of games where all the bounces went their way. And Josh Allen was, you know, not perfect, but 23 of 26, two rushing touchdowns, like, it's just, he was really in sync with finding the open guys, not forcing the downfield. And like you said, another game from Cook, 114 yards. It's just, you know, when Joe Brady's got the run game going like that and Josh isn't missing guys, I can't believe they only put up 28 points. I felt like they could have rolled this Chiefs team and they let us hang around. But Mahomes couldn't steal this one for a shot. So yeah, that was, that was a bad bet. Hey, this is producer Matt Mitchell. If you are new to the show, this is where I jump in when.

[B]

No one asked me to and say, how about those Buffalo Bills? And then insert the Josh Allen alarm. Much to the delight of Bills fans everywhere and the chagrin of literally everybody else. Let's hear it for Josh Allen.

[A]

Baby alert here For Josh Allen.

[B]

Looking for Allen. Got it.

[A]

He's a runner.

[B]

No, he's a thrower.

[A]

He is a football player. Through and through with his left. And there he goes.

[B]

Josh Allen.

[A]

Huge run and.

[B]

Excuse me.

[A]

Touchdown. How many quarterbacks have you ever seen hurdle anyone?

[B]

Goodness.

[A]

There's no fear. No way. He was big and strong in his.

[B]

Eyes of looking at a laser beam.

[A]

Touchdown, Buffalo. And he's still going. Oh, my goodness. The demands to do something about this outrageous man became louder and louder.

[B]

So the Chiefs, with the Jaguars winning, are actually the currently the eighth seed in the afc. Oh, because they're behind the Jags.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

And now they've lost four games. So not great, Jim. Not great. Not great at all.

[A]

Denver's 7 and 2 now.

[B]

Denver 7 and 2. The Chargers keep winning. The Colts are ahead of them. The Patriots are ahead of them. The Bills are ahead of them. Not great for them right now. The Steelers are ahead of them. One in four for us today, Simon. One in four.

[A]

Not worst week of the year.

[B]

Worst week of the year. That was. You know, you. You go through these years when you do the five every week, you just try to avoid the one in four. We got bit a couple times this year. We've been close, but today we got bit and it stings a little bit.

[A]

Yeah. Like we always talk about though, easily can see a world where we're three and two and unfortunately we've used up a lot of our luck this year and we were due for a one and four week.

[B]

By the way, I'm thrilled we got one because we could have been 05. Like we got a fourth and two touchdown. That could have been controversial. Like they had to review it. It wasn't a gimme that. It was a touchdown. So I feel very lucky, especially considering, you know, we left out the Steelers, we left out the Panthers and like in place of the Falcons, we could have been 0 and 5 today, just easily. So if that's the case, because I like optimism, I feel pretty good about being 1 in 4. Could have gone so much worse. At least 20% worse. Carolina, some of the games we left out. Let's talk about them quickly. Carolina at Green Bay. What's wrong with us? Like, we knew all week this was not. This was too big of a number. We should be playing this. How did we not make this? How were we not both more insistent about this? And why wasn't this replacing something else?

[A]

I mean, I thought we did pretty good. We made it our hard rock bet.

[B]

Yeah, but we should have put in the contest, we could have been more forceful. Like, we love the Panthers. We like Bryce Young coming back. We knew last week was an anomaly. Like I said on the show today, like, the packers played well for 20 minutes last week and all of a sudden they're 13 point favorites. Like, we just missed it.

[A]

Yeah, again, I'm not gonna beat ourselves up about it. We were gonna take out Pittsburgh or Atlanta, so it's like we were just, we were never gonna avoid this.04. We just, for some reason, we were stuck on those four games. We had loved them since Tuesday. And yeah, horrible reads. Like I said, we, we talked. It was a trap week and we took four favorites even though we had red flags. About three of them that we knew were suspicious. We. We took them anyway. So that's why I'm gonna own it. You're not the professional here. I'm the guy that's like, I kept trying to avoid these traps and I walked us right into three of them. And like, I felt like such an idiot. Even once that game's kicked off, it's like, what have I done? These, this is not where we should be on these spots. We should have taken these ugly dogs. But yeah, this game. You know, as much as I want to say I read this one right, I really thought this was going to be kind of a shootout. And it was the total opposite. Green Bay just totally stuck in the mud. I mean, Bryce Young, what did he. I'd have to look it up. I think he had 11 completions for 100 yards. Chad. No joke. And it felt like the Carolina Panthers dominated. Like their defense played so well. You know, the run game of this Panthers team, like we said, Rico Daddle, now he's their number one back. 130 yards rushing, two touchdowns. Absolute difference maker. They just totally ball controlled this game. Never let Green Bay get in rhythm. You know, Jordan Love, he has these weird games where he just does really stupid things. Throwing off his back foot and trying to do too much. And you see it. If he plays it within La Flora's offense, it looks incredible. Once he steps out and tries to do his own thing, it's. It's not like his first year. I remember his first year, he was perfect at it. Right. He'd always make the right decision. When you go outside the play these last couple years, you just see these dumb turnovers and you know, the game. It did feel like it had this vibe of the Green Bay was going to figure out and steal this game. But like you said, we were never, never going to not cover that number like that was. Yeah, way too inflated. And the fact that Panthers wanted outright. I'm sure you're the same. But where that stung, where it's like, we love this team. We read it right. How did we not have them the money line run Robin. And how do we not hammer this one more. But I'm glad at least this morning we were smart enough to agree. We both liked it. That's why we gave it out. It was one game we didn't fight on. We totally agreed on. And yeah, the only negatives is if it was 13 and a half. There's a world where maybe we do take out the Chargers because, you know, it was a nine and a half or whatever. Just, you know, I'm trying to lie to myself thinking we could have gotten.

[B]

There, but I don't think we were avoiding.

[A]

It's a bad miss.

[B]

We were never avoiding it. There's no way. I know we're not on those four today, but yeah, that's a bummer. Speaking of bummer, boy, did I love the Jacksonville Jaguars this week. And yeah, I did. I don't, I don't know if we talked about that. And you know, they converted a. This is, this is classic Jags converted a fourth and short inside their five yard line. And I think their first drive of the game.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Next play. Pre snap penalty. Next play. Trevor Lawrence pick. He ignored what is supposed to happen on the play, which is a shovel pass. It was wide open with blockers in front of him. A little two yard shovel. He held it instead, threw it into the end zone, into any one of three Raiders could have picked it off. And that's what happened. The rest of that first half was a clunker until Cam Little hit that 68 yard field goal. And then in the second half in overtime, they scored, what was it, about 50 points combined. This Jax team like Trevor Lawrence is just the worst. He's just like, they're never gonna win anything with him. He truly kills them in every single game. Every game.

[A]

Yeah. But again, it's a game that they probably shouldn't have won and they kind of stole because their kicker hit.

[B]

Or they should have won it four different times, but they couldn't then they couldn't stop anybody. The second half was like a track meet.

[A]

Yeah, I just, I can't get over the fact that that kicker made that kick and like this, that's the league where we're living in now. But I know I, I hated that game. Didn't want to be on the Raiders. Like I knew a really smart group had taken that position early on that Raiders team and I just tried to warn us off of it because it's like what are they seeing that I'm not seeing? Because I was totally agreeing with you. It's like Geno Smith is a corpse. Like how are they going to keep up with this offense? And seems like the answer is pretty simple. It's a guy named Brock Bowers.

[B]

Bowers, yeah.

[A]

127 yards, three touchdowns. Just ultimate game changer. I think the, the biggest hat tip you can get in all professional football is after the draft. If you hear Sean McVeigh was trying to trade up to your draft spot to take the guy you took. And like all you heard all that whole before his rookie year was that Sean McVeigh loved this guy Brock Bowers and obviously set that rookie record. You know, came back, totally dominated this game. And yeah, again I'm just glad we avoided. I, I took the Raiders but it's like I hated it. I didn't want to watch it. Unfortunately there's only three late games today, so I had to watch this game. But man, even, even in games they should steal, they still, they couldn't get that two pointer and steal this game. There's just total, total train wreck of a season for the Raiders and yeah, a week where all the worst teams covered Tennessee covers, this team covers the Raiders. It's, it just, that's how it goes. NFL, right? There's no teams or like Tennessee that year. They went what was a 115 or 1 in 16 against the spread. Bad teams cover ugly spreads.

[B]

Well, they had been, been going really bad. Let's talk about the Chicago Bears for a second because geez Louise, I think they had like 260 yards rushing today and anytime they run the ball they seem to do really, really well. And they seem to be winning not because of Caleb Williams, despite that play at the end of the game. They're certainly not winning because of their defense. When Joe Flacco was throwing for 470, 70 yards. I don't know how to take it with this team. I'm wearing my Bears, you know, my bear shirt today because I love them but I feel like they do everything wrong and somehow they're getting lucky with so many games this year that was a train wreck of a game.

[A]

Yeah, you're just tough. Once again, like you said, Caleb, he's inconsistent. But you see these little moments where you're like this is why this guy is number one pick. Dude, you See the Trevor Lawrence thing.

[B]

With Trevor Lawrence, you see these little moments and you see why the guy was the number one pick. But that's not how you win a Super Bowl.

[A]

It's not. But you're not looking for a Super Bowl. I don't know why you keep. You should even mention super bowl for.

[B]

I want a Super Bowl.

[A]

Well, I got some bad stories for you. If you want to pop in your vhs, watch your Super Bowl. But right now, brother, this, this team, it's just funny even mention it. Caleb. It's all about growing in the offense. But like you keep talking about your head coach is the reason you guys keep winning these games. You have no business of winning your run game. I mean, what was that guy? I can't pronounce the guy's name.

[B]

The magnolia. Kyle Menangay.

[A]

I mean out of this world. 176 yards rushing. Your whole team. As a unit, we're averaging 7.6 yards per carry. I love too just again, I. Ben Johnson's that you had five different. No wait, four different guys have a pass in this game. You had a tight end throw the ball. Your DJ more throwable and you had your backup quarterback throw a ball. So it's just madness. Like everything about him is just madness. And I know, I love those type of games because they stole it and they covered for you like you had.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

The Flacco had no business bringing it back. What do you throw for? 450 yards or 470 yards?

[B]

470.

[A]

Yeah. Like again, I'm the number one Joe Bro hater. I had the guy. Only person in America had him in ranked number six, my top 10 quarterbacks. And I might even bump them down next year. Like what Flacco's doing with this guy's weapons, I mean this. I feel like this might be a lesson to all of us. Like don't pay. If you're gonna pay your number one receiver, your number two receiver or studs crazy money. Go get like Sam Darnold. Don't pay your quarterback crazy money. Because half of these throws Joe Flacco is making, he has no business completing. It's just raw talent by T. Higgins and these other pieces. So again, as a Bears fan, I try to be positive. The fact that Loveland was the one who showed up in this game where Cincinnati is by far the worst team in football, graded wise against tight ends and everybody in the world that I know in the fantasy football community was all over Loveland anytime. Touchdown. That was the second touchdown that Won the break at the end of that game. So, yeah, you know, I get where you're coming from. Caleb's not doing everything perfect because he's still stupid and makes dumb decisions consistently. But I just. How do you not get excited? You went from having the loser of losers and Justin Fields and a joke of a head coach to a quarterback that did make a drive at the end of the game when all hope was lost. Like, that was a big boy drive. Like, let's be honest, man, you're. He's. He was sitting on the bench for about 40 minutes watching Joe Flacco put up 14 points and get onside kicks and God knows what. And he came out there in this one opportunity, made a couple big throws and had a couple of big scrambles and got. You got those wins. So I get where you're coming from, but I feel like you should be happy. You got your money in the COVID that I thought was dead of dead. And I told Chad before the. This morning, I told him I'd cashed out my Bears side because I just don't trust their defense. Incredible. In a day in which you give up 42 points, you guys won. I just. I don't know. I'm starting to like the Bears are slowly become one of my favorite teams. You guys have so many games this year, you just steal because your coach is just such a genius. So I. I can't get over it. What a win for the Bears.

[B]

All right, before we get to our leans and some questions and comments from the people watching right now, one more quickly. Rah, rah, Mike Tomlin. Rah, rah, rah, rah. It's the game we thought they would have last week. The Steelers keeping the game close, taking advantage of turnovers. Daniel Jones finally comes back down to earth a little bit. It was never a sweat. They were up 177 at the end of the first half. They ended up winning.

[A]

You said Daniel Jones came down a little bit.

[B]

A little bit.

[A]

Did you see his stats today?

[B]

Well, he threw a pick. That's all I care about. Threw a pick that led to a slot.

[A]

Even better. He threw three picks, Chad. Yeah, and he had three. He had three fumbles, two for loss.

[B]

So he came back down to earth.

[A]

Is that not an incredible stat line?

[B]

It's great. If you like the Steelers today, exactly what we.

[A]

I just can't get over it. It's like we knew he was gonna have a day where he just blew up, but that's epic. Epic meltdown type of game. Don't blink Ever.

[B]

Don't blink.

[A]

Ever. Cut your eyelids off. I saw a couple y' all blinking though. For real.

[B]

I'll talk to you about it. Simon, are you ready for this week's Shame on you. Shame, shame, shame. Let's get it Texans offensive coordinator Nick Cali first drive inside the 10 yard line. They start with a penalty, three straight rush plays for zero yards from the one yard line and then a penalty leads to a field goal. Second drive after an interception of Bo Nix at midfield, they're at the two yard line. They go rush for no yards. Penalty rush for one yard sack from the 17 yard line. On a third down they get sacked for four yards, have to kick a field goal. They had something like 12, 13, 14, 15 plays inside the red zone today, including multiple plays inside the two yard line and went backwards more often than they went forwards. There is a lack of imagination, a lack of execution, a lack of understanding of your personnel in that Texans locker room when it comes to running and executing inside. Not even the red zone inside the five yard line. Which is why we lost our bet today. Thanks to Texans offense coordinator Nick Cali.

[A]

For my shame on you. I'll definitely go with myself. I just, I knew coming the week it was a trap week and a lot of people ask all the time about this. It's not only that I'm seeing the lines, it's again my life where like especially today I, I should have went to when I got this sportsbook this morning. I should change all our bets any given Sunday when I go to the book especially after like this next week it will be empty Sunday morning next week. These past two weeks it was packed to the gills. Everybody in the world had money and was at the book this week because the public had been winning. And I like I told Chad, I saw that top four that we were on literally the four biggest public sides ticket wise and I was just like oh my God, are we. Am I walking us right into it? And I just couldn't avoid it was like being, it's like being in a bad dream that you know what's about to happen but you cannot control is truly the worst feeling. Is it better? So it's definitely on me. I, I should have helped us avoid it. At least switch out one of those chalk favorites. I can't believe looking back I let us put Chargers and Detroit in these two huge chalk favorites that we always are on the other side of it and we walked right into it. So shame on me. Just I got to be better. I will be better People, I'm not gonna give you a tintibo moment. We will lose again, but next week we'll bounce back. I just embarrassing on my part this week.

[B]

Who's your hero?

[A]

My hero? It's got to be Chad. Chad's Atlanta Falcons. You saved the day like we talked about. We were gonna get that win that we could have got, we could have got in there with Pittsburgh cutting the other Carolina, but you were so dug in on it. And like I told you, I never get tons of pros coming up to me being like you're missing the mark here and Chad is spot on where it's like got to the point of being like, holy. I guess I have to take Atlanta. And I, I told you beforehand, even if it lost, I was going to give you zero because I was like these guys are literally bulling me into this. Like they're telling me gotta get this one in. This is the spot of spots with this team. And like you just like you said, when it came down to that fourth and two one handed catch by Drake London, I was just like, that's why these guys are pros, they just know, just play the number. Doesn't matter how you get there, as long as you get there and you get to the window. So yeah, hero of the week, Chad Money Millman.

[B]

Oh, that's so sweet. My hero is actually Drake London who three touchdowns today, the touchdown that got us the COVID But he also was just making every single play when they needed a catch. And when we talked about this game all week, we talked about the Falcons being different when they had Drake London in the game more than Michael Penix. And he was clearly the difference in keeping this game close. Because every time Penix needed a bailout, a key third down the drives at the end of the game, he had a great sideline catch. It was always Drake London, Drake London, Drake London making the play that we needed for our one and only win on the day, Simon says was Kansas City minus one and a half, big L. Chad's choice. Detroit minus eight and a half big L. Brass balls. Houston minus one and a half, Big L rocking a hard place. Carolina plus 13. Yay. Sharp versus square. I had the Jags, you had the Chargers. We're both losers.

[A]

This sucks and it's horseshit. But I'm too polite to say anything because I'm a class act.

[B]

Our favorites parlay. Kansas City L, Houston L. Chargers 1, Detroit L. Jags 1. Underdog. Pittsburgh 1. Atlanta loss. Buffalo 1. Giants loss, Broncos 1. We're going to be Better about not having teams on both sides. We're going to have to figure out what that is.

[A]

Why don't people get pitched? Well, that. That was nice today. That was rare win where I faded ourselves and it worked out for me.

[B]

Yeah, good for us. All right. People want to know right now. They're in the chat. They want to know, who do we think are our two super bowl teams now that we are heading into week 10? It feels like way premature to be talking about that because that is just. There's so much to discover. Like next week we could be. We could be back on the Chiefs in two weeks. I could be in love with the Bears. Like, it's hard to know at this point. I don't, I don't buy Denver, you know, could be the Ravens in four weeks.

[A]

Yeah, if, if I'm gonna still go with super bowl teams that I actually think can get there for real. Afc, Chiefs, Bills. If Lamar's right, those are. Those are the three. And anyone else, I have my doubts and I will fade and take a position against, you know, football. We're due for a fluky team to come out of the afc. It's been a long time. It feels like I just. At the end of the day, the, the Chiefs just play at such a high level. And I know you joked a little bit about, like, what if they don't win their division? That honestly changes. Doesn't change my opinion, doll. Like, people don't understand. They went to Buffalo with one of the worst creative teams I've ever had and beat a stacked Bills team and then went on the road and beat a Lamar Jackson team that was also stacked. Like they've, they've gone on the road and done that before to get to a Super bowl and won that Super Bowl. So yeah, those are the two that jump out from the afc, nfc. I feel like I'm just dug in on it where I still think it's Eagles and Rams. Just the two teams with the quarterbacks that have been there, done that, and I trust them in high leverage situations. Where can I get there on Seattle and Sam Darnold? It's going to be hard for me, people. Honestly, can I get there on Green Bay, Jordan Love, same thing. The only one I could see outside get into this group is the Bucks. Like the Bucks, they've historically owned this Eagles team. I know this year the Eagles beat them, but again, this is just a banged up Bucks team. If they get right and they keep winning games, I could see them moving into a group with that Eagles team, that Rams team that, you know, I just. All these other teams on the outside, just like Detroit, like, we love Detroit. I just. It's gonna be hard for me to ever trust golf in the playoffs where you've seen him kind of lay eggs a couple times in his career. So, yeah, like you said, Chad, it is early, but it just feels like of all these teams to get right, I just. If the Bucks get healthy in the nfc, I could see them being a really tough out later in the season where right now we're just undervalued them. Right. They're just so banged up, so injured. It's just. It's hard to really think the Bucs could be in the super bowl at some point, but I think once they get right, they could. They could be one of those teams.

[B]

Two favorites won today. The San Francisco 49ers, they beat the Giants by 10. They were two and a half point favorites. And the Los Angeles Rams, to your point, they were 14 point favorites at home against the Saints. This game got to 20 to 10, and then the Rams poured in two more touchdowns. They won 34 to 10. So of all the teams that avoided the trap, that were in a trap spot, the Rams are the only ones that stood and delivered against a really, really big number. So good for them. Which is, to your point, about why people are so excited about the Rams or should be thinking about them, because they are. It's like they're doing it. They're, they're. I don't think they're getting discussed enough as a dominant team in the NFC right now. It feels like it's all happening kind of under the radar. Let's talk early. Leans for Week 10. The first game you and I discussed that we thought was going to be really hard to ignore was Detroit is a three and a half now, three point favorite at Washington.

[A]

Yeah, I can't believe that That's. That's what they opened that at. And this could just be me missing the mark with this Washington because, you know, they're down to two and a half at a lot of books tonight against the Seahawks.

[B]

We'll see what happens when they kick off.

[A]

Interesting that they would open this on minus three. Like they know they're gonna get a ton of public money, this Lions team. So like you said, I'm gonna grab it just now because I do think it will move up. I mean, it's minus 120 at most books, so, you know, it's not the greatest number to be bent into. But I still think It's a key number, so I'll. I'll grab it now. Even though we both know this is. It's definitely gonna be the public side this upcoming week.

[B]

The Baltimore Ravens right now are three and a half point favorites at Minnesota. That one also stands out to me because I, I don't. J.J. mcCarthy just wasn't great today. He made good plays when he had to make good plays. And the Ravens defense, what are we going to get? Like, are they the team that had no problem against a terrible Miami team? Did they improve like they did last year coming off of the bye week? That's the wild card to me. But this to me feels like a better team than the Vikings.

[A]

Yeah. And also it's a weird line, like you just said, where you can get. There's minus threes out there. Hard rock in Jersey right now is minus three, minus 120. So I know it's. I'm trying again. I'm trying to not do. I just did last week and take all these road favorites, but my God, that's. That feels like an insane line to open with. Like this Ravens team, we've seen, when they get going, they dominate. And I, I don't want to overreact to a Vikings team that did stop the run last week against Detroit where we've seen them be one of the worst run defense in all football. So maybe I'm missing it and I'll learn more this week about what the Vikings did. I'll watch a tape about the adjustments they made. But this feels like a great play for Lamar, who historically is just absolutely dominated NFC team. So I'm with you. If you can get a minus three right now. Hard Rock, I'm going to grab that early line.

[B]

Two more that I am pinpointing right now. I hate to say it. San Francisco 49ers three point dogs at home against the Rams.

[A]

Yeah, I'm not going to bet it. I'll wait and see. The QB is. Even though Mac Jones, he played really well again today, I just, I'm assuming.

[B]

It'S going to be Brock Purdy.

[A]

That's why I assume so too.

[B]

Lean into the three right now.

[A]

But I've assumed he was gonna be back chat for about three weeks now.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

And I'm starting to learn these are, these are Mac lines because they keep hanging these numbers. Like this week I, I thought all week the number was two and a half because it was like, oh, Purdy will be back. And he never was, he was never really even like talked about coming back so you're again, you're right. It's another spot like we just talked about. Three straight games where it's three straight road favorites. The books are just open on -3 and letting the professionals decide. I think the pros are going to join you here in this, this 49ers team shot. So I won't take a take a position on it yet. But I do see the professionals coming to the 49ers earlier.

[B]

Last one for me is Pittsburgh plus three and a half on the road against the Chargers. This offensive line, Joe Walt was carted off. They, they lost two other guys during the game. Like how are they going to protect Justin Herbert?

[A]

That's true. That is true.

[B]

That's the game. To me it's not even about rah Rah Mike Tomlin. It's just they can't protect Justin Herbert.

[A]

I know this Pittsburgh team though is so bad in so many different ways. Like we talked about, they had five turnovers today and they won by a touchdown. So I mean you are, you're just betting on Tomlin as a dog. And I agree with you that when Joel went out, I know he did drive like you said, he drove the field Herbert to give us one more touchdown but he had never ending amount of pressure in his face from a D line that has no guys that can really get pressure. So yeah, this, maybe this is like you said, another spot where I just gotta hold my nose, trust Tomlin in the number and just back that. That's a good matchup for them. But their secondary is going to have real issues against what you know this Herbert offense can do, right? The passing attack. I mean lad McConk had a couple really bad drops but all the other receivers just are so in sync.

[B]

He's had a lot of right now.

[A]

So yeah, I don't hate your early read there.

[B]

What else are you looking at?

[A]

Just ones that jumped out. I, I mean I don't want to do it, but I feel like we have to. Tampa after a bye week, minus two and a half at home against the Patriots. I have to grab that now, don't I? That's. Yeah, that feels like that's, that's a number that could easily move up. I'm not gonna, I'm. I'm not gonna, you know, tell people they have to be betting this. But Carolina is only minus five and a half. They've opened minus five and a half now. I think the public comes into that number goes up like it's that Saints offense. As bad as they look Today and the rookie did on the road. It's bad spots like he, he was his first starts on the road against a really tough Rams team. Now he's on the road against a Carolina team that just plays better at home. Like that last week we talked about that was a total fluke. That was Amy Dalton just total disaster game. I think Bryce Young will bounce back and have a much better game they did the week before against his bad Saints defense. And I just like that that's. That's under the key number of six really early here in the week. Are we, are we supposed to back Atlanta again? Atlanta's/6 and and/2 against the Colts team. It's indoors and it's indoors. Yeah. Like it feels like this is the exact spot we're supposed to back this Atlanta team. So I'm going to grab that early here even if I want to change my position later on the more I look into this one. But I can't see my model having the Colts the 7 point favorite like they're again we talked that they are good but their defense is suspect. They have major questions about the secondary and Daniel Jones bounce back spot. Yeah, of course he should bounce back here but I don't know. Feels like a very. Still an inflated line and the fact you can get six and a half such a key number. I'll. I'll grab that earlier here and my last one before we get out of here. Just can't help myself. I hate it because it's going against my own team. Eagles. You can get minus two and a half on Green Bay right now. I think that's. That's a pretty good value. I'm interested. The professionals do. The pros will come in with the public and hit that line. I'm interested to see if that's. That's what the possibility is here. Oh yeah, you're right. That Atlanta Colts game is in Germany. I believe I could be wrong but.

[B]

No, you are. That's right. That's right.

[A]

It's international. Right. Okay, that makes more sense. Damn it. I mean I already bet it so I'm already dug in on it. But yeah. Before we get out of here just. I'm interested what the pros do with that Eagles line. I feel like that's a very tempting to the public. Going to be a very public dog. Eagles plus two and a half and I'm going to grab the Green Bay just in case it does go up to three.

[B]

All right. We will dig in a little bit more. A lot more on Tuesday. Again, our one win today, the Atlanta Falcons plus five and a half. We lost with the Chiefs minus one and a half, the Texans minus one and a half. The Chargers minus nine and a half and the Lions minus eight and a half. You know what, Simon? We get what we deserve. And that's what we deserve today. This has been Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bat, part of the Volume podcast network. We will be back with our next Sharper Square on Tuesday. To go over the entire NFL slate, watch or listen on YouTube @Sharpersquared. Like this video? Subscribe to the channel. Also download us from Spotify, Apple pods. Wherever you get your pods rate. Review. Subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time.

[A]

Love you. Hey, let's be careful.

[B]

Okay? Only 10 more presents to wrap. You're almost at the finish line. But first there the last one. Enjoy a Coca Cola for a pause that refreshes.

[A]

This is an I heart podcast.