← Sharp or Square
Sharp or Square
NFL Wild Card Weekend Bets: Packers-Bears, Rams-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Patriots-Chargers, Niners-Eagles, Texans-Steelers
01:00:34
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- [00:00]
Chad Millman
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.
- [00:05]
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- [00:49]
Simon Hunter
Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock that we are part of the Volume Podcast network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper. It makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as I am every week by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [01:19]
Chad Millman
Chad. It is a bittersweet show as it's over for the regular season. Lucky for us, our contest keeps going and the playoffs keep going and it only gets better here. It's the best football of the year and you know the deal as a team who, a fan of a team who's in the playoffs and it's anybody's game when you make it to the, you feel that way. I know it's usually the, the best teams, but as you just want to get to the dance, you want to at least get to the dance. And yeah, when I woke up yesterday after the Sunday games, I was like, my God, thank God I still got a team left and some football left because it's, it's just the best feeling. The, the chase. I mean we got it. We got a Bills fan here, a guy who's lost four straight Super Bowls. It's the best run of your life, but also can be the most crushing and tone setting run of your life. But it's, it's the best feeling. Like, I just can't believe the playoffs are here. And running through all these matchups, all the conversation, the island's going crazy. Bermuda, everything's going crazy right now. Talking NFL, our weekend. It's, it's, it's the best right now.
- [02:15]
Simon Hunter
I, I'm in a little bit of football ecstasy because on Friday nights I will be in Atlanta to watch the Indiana Hoosiers play the Oregon Ducks in the College Football Playoff semifinals.
- [02:28]
Chad Millman
I'm so happy you're going because that was heartbreaking for you to go to the Big Ten championship. So this makes up for it.
- [02:32]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, yeah. You know, it's really about scheduling for this show. Like, it's just we, during the football season, we do show Tuesday, we do show Thursday, we do a show Sunday morning, we do a show Sunday night. It just makes it hard. And I don't live near, like anywhere. I go from, from Connecticut, I fly to Hartford. It takes a full day to get somewhere because it doesn't fly anywhere direct. It flies direct to Atlanta. So. And my buddy Matt, who I'm going with on, you know, the night that they won their playoff game, he's like, listen, I know you can get nonstop from Bradley to Atlanta. We're fucking going. And he's right. And so we are. We're going. And then I get back that night and I'm sitting down to watch the Bears and the plays play the Packers. Like it is going to be 24 hours of full football glory or pure agony. We don't know which way it's going to go yet, but that's also part of the fun. Simon. We went 4 and 1 in the final weekend of our five favorite picks for the regular season. We won with the Lions, we won with the Rams, one with the Saints, and in thriller, miracle of the year. Game of the year. Wow. The Rah Rah Steelers home dogs three and a half. It's a theme that we're going to touch on today. We lost with the Bengals and we lost with the Bengals who lost to a QB who finished the game with a 12 rating. 12 QB rating and led an offense that scored 6 points. I was going to let it go, but then I saw this. You actually texted me, texted me and Mitchell that some dude in the circus Survivor contest. The prize pool for circa this year in their survivor contest was $18 million. Going into the final weekend, there were six people still alive. Only one person lost. Lost the chance to win $3 million because that person had the bangles. And that brought it back for me and made me put. Put it in context. Felt much, you know, less worse losing what I lost versus what this guy lost. But then I saw a stat from Aaron Schatz who created dvoa and he put out a graphic that basically said the underlying metrics from that game, the way the Browns won should happen 1% of the time, which makes it the sixth longest odds for a team with those metrics compared to the team they lost to to win in NFL history. The sixth least likely outcome in NFL history for a team that played as bad as the Cleveland Browns did. That is remarkable. And I feel for the guy who lost $3 million because of it.
- [05:29]
Chad Millman
I love how you were just so in shock, though. I tried to say the exact thing you just read out loud here to you on Sunday night. I think you just blew right through. You still complained about the Bengals for another 10 minutes. Like, you think you got it bad. A guy lost 3 million on that kick. But yeah, man, Mitchell, throw that record back up on the screen that it was a great year. Well, we have five losing weeks, Chad. It was insane. I know the Internet, people's brains are fried. Like, I still have people complaining and just saying crazy stuff. I had this one guy going every week complaining. I clicked on his profile and it's just him, like, propping up, busting with the veneer guys, and it's like, dude, what is going on? How are you gonna love those guys and hate us when we're giving out real good picks and working our asses off? So, yeah, five losing weeks, Chad. I'll take it anytime and get. It was a long season, a grind. Obviously. The most disappointing part of that chart is there's no five, zero weeks, which is always. We're always. That's always the goal every week. And yeah, we. We didn't get to this week. But. But yeah, it's chaotic start to the year. And I'm pretty happy how it all worked out, brother. It was. It was a fun, real fun season. And like I said, I'm really happy the contest continues into the playoffs here. Keep it rolling.
- [06:34]
Simon Hunter
Started four and one, ended four and one. Lot of three and two, 13 winning weeks, five losing weeks. Shout out to Chris Sampson on X, who goes by NFL Bets Tracker because he has been updating how we have done with all of our sort of named bets. You know, Chad's Chad's choice. And Simon says, and brass balls and Rock and Hard place. He's been updating it all season long on Twitter, not just the five favorites. So we went 5139 with the five faves. Our best winning percentage was rocking a hard place 61. Chad's Choice won at a 56% clip. Simon says wanted a 39 clip, which you knew you had a bad run in the middle there. Yeah, Simon crushed me in head to head, 59 to 35. What's least surprising about this?
- [07:31]
Chad Millman
What was that? Sharper square, Sharp versus square?
- [07:34]
Simon Hunter
Well, at least that. Well, that was my point. My, my. The least surprising thing to me is that Rock and hard place one at a 61 clip. Because that's Sunday morning when we have nearly perfect information. Yeah, right.
- [07:50]
Chad Millman
That's the easiest.
- [07:51]
Simon Hunter
That's the easiest time, easiest one to met to bet.
- [07:54]
Chad Millman
At least you were nailing Tuesdays.
- [07:56]
Simon Hunter
Well, listen, the second, the second best was you crushing me in Sharp versus Square. This is the biggest win in the history of our show and to me, I think the fact that we named it Sharp vs Square, it was a self fulfilling prophecy. I am going to tell myself I just had to lean into the idea that I had to be as square as possible in order for this to work. So maybe I sandbagged myself.
- [08:21]
Chad Millman
That's what I tell the Tennessee Titans too many times. That was your probably your issue.
- [08:25]
Simon Hunter
Totally. Could be. All right. Looking at the leaderboard in our Sharper Square pro football pick them contest, six entries are currently tied at 20 points. Nikki Abs. Maybe he's doing the peloton workouts like I am. And the big Y, which also happens to be my local grocery store.
- [08:42]
Chad Millman
I'm here for the big guy. Big Y.
- [08:44]
Simon Hunter
Big Why big? Why big Y? Just down the street from me, they're at the very top. Four more slates until we crown a champion. Good luck to everyone playing. Also, since we're going through season roundups, Simon, we got to thank Matt Mitchell who, who came into the show shortly after we launched, didn't miss a beat from the old days, kept us rolling the whole freaking season, organized the contest, working with our friends at Hard Rock bet, which is not an easy thing to launch in the middle of a season. We got to thank our friends at the Volume for helping us launch a spectacular show that got bigger after we left our old platform, started a new show with a new name. So if that's the case, we also have to thank everybody who came with us, everyone who joined us this season. We're only doing it because we like working with each other, the three of us, and because we love the interaction we get with our audience, the good, the bad and the ugly. So we're super grateful that everyone stuck with it all through the regular season. We're going to keep rolling into the.
- [09:55]
Chad Millman
Wild in our favorite uncle Colin. Colin Coward. Best season ever. Blazing 5. What a coincidence. I don't know.
- [10:02]
Simon Hunter
I don't know. I don't know. Reflected glory. I don't know. All right, this is our Tuesday wildcard weekend show. So we're going to review the entire slate of games. Because it is playoff season, we will include totals in the conversation. Those are also included in the contest. Also, because the schedule of games is wacky. We adjust our weekend programming as well. So we got the Tuesday show, we got the Thursday show. This weekend we will do a Saturday morning show because we want to get ahead of all five games and then we will do a Monday review show ending right before kickoff of the Texan Steelers. So we'll review what happened over the weekend and then preview Texan Steelers. Next weekend we'll do a Saturday morning before the divisional round and a review show on Sunday night after. Again, we'll remind everybody but don't forget that's what we're doing. New schedule. Get all the Show Sharper Square YouTube, subscribe and like this video. Download some Apple pods. Spotify wherever you get your pods. Here we go. Saturday, January 10, 4:30pm Eastern Los Angeles Rams at the Carolina Panthers. The total is 46 and a half. Contest includes totals for all games.
- [11:18]
Chad Millman
In my mind, I'm gone to Carolina.
- [11:25]
Simon Hunter
Simon. It's like a dream come true. We get to talk about the Panthers and Bryce Young in the playoffs. It feels like vindication and validation for us after so many years backing this team. We've been loving them. Telling you right now, Chad's Choice presented by Hard Rock that Los Angeles Rams minus 10.
- [11:50]
Chad Millman
Wow. Favorite boom. Are you sure you want to do this? Are you willing to make a choice?
- [11:58]
Simon Hunter
What choice? We can't run from who we are.
- [12:01]
Chad Millman
Sharp dudes can just see it. You know what I mean?
- [12:07]
Simon Hunter
Shocker. I know this is crazy. It's against type. It's against the team that I love. I got some logic before I get into it. I do want to hear your thoughts on my bet because we, we haven't talked about it and it's going against everything we do and everything we've done with this Panthers team.
- [12:30]
Chad Millman
A little bit. Yeah. It's, it's, it's tough read for me right now. I told you, I'm, I'm probably waiting to before I put a lot of money into this one until I know what the status is about the Adams and you know, it's a type of game where, you know, I get why you're doing it. We both agree the Rams are a much better team and I obviously have a ton of stats that favor the Rams or we're about to run through here. But yeah, I'm shocked to hear it's your, it's your favorite bet so far over the weekend.
- [12:59]
Simon Hunter
I'm a little bit too. Part of it is it's like it's hard to choose on a Tuesday of playoff week. I'm all of the stats that you're talking about, the advanced analytics point to this Rams team as being probably the best team in the playoffs based on what they do offensively, what they do defensively, the strength of their schedule, who they beat, how they won. So that's number one. I think that we're getting a little bit of value here because don't forget when these guys played at the end of November, November 30th, the Rams were 10 point favorites on the road at the Panthers. So what this is saying to me is that everything is power rated the same and in that window the Rams have continued to perform really well. The Panthers have been okay. They didn't beat the Bucks, they didn't win the week before. Like they, they got blown out in a really bad game against the 49ers. So I feel like there's a little bit of value on the Rams. And then we have to take into account which is the, this past weekend, was it a good Bryce Young game or was it a bad Bryce Young game? Because you generally want to go against his most recent performance and his last game, 24, 35, 266, two touchdowns in a game they easily could have won in a hurricane on the road included some classic Bryce Young bombs. So isn't he due for a stinker? Some of my thoughts, yeah, just I.
- [14:43]
Chad Millman
I honestly thought we maybe would be end up on the Panthers this week. That's why I'm shocked to hear so early in the week you love the Rams this much. But it's a crazy team, this Panthers team, where it's never happened before. Our team has never, never won a game as a favorite and then made the playoffs that season. The super bowl error. This has never happened before. This Panthers team, every game they won this season was as an underdog. I went what they go 8, 8 wins as an underdog and they never won as a favorite. And they somehow made the playoffs with a losing record and an insanely horrible point there for them. Over minus 69 points point differential. Like it's just insane this Panthers team to make it. It's because the division is like you're saying it's a weak bad division. Panthers being power rated this number, I have it at 8. So once again like my model does favor the Panthers here, but it's, I think it's because Devonte's out and the, the numbers have been skewed a little bit where if he was in, I mean he still led the league in touchdowns with 14 touchdowns. He didn't play for the final three weeks. Devonte. So that's gonna choose the numbers a little bit. Like the Rams lost two really important games in that stretch. Right. And the public really shifted their view of this team and it's like, yeah, you can't make an excuse for a staff for losing the number one guy. But he lost him in the worst spot. Like him in that Seattle game would have been a difference. Right. Him being injured for that game or coming up lame was a big deal. So waiting on, waiting on devonte is the big one. But yeah, let's run through all the crazy numbers. I mean, that's the best part of playoffs. You really can focus in and look at all the different trends and the different stats just for these final six games. The biggest one for this one is how often has this happened, right. A ten point home dog in the Panthers. It's historical. This is like the biggest home dog we've had in like 25 years. So it's a really, really weird spot for just the Rams and the fact that, you know, they're now going to be one of the biggest favorites. We've seen the wild card around wild card round. Usually you just blindly bet dogs. If you just taking the dog every year in every game since 202022 or 2020 2002, you are 61% just blindly betting the dogs in the wild card round. So it's just, you don't overthink. You kind of want to lean to the dogs in these spots. But it's kind of interesting that the, the, the Panthers already beat the ramps. And if you go through historical data, if they played the 12th game or later and the Panthers, you know they beat them was that week 13 or 14.
- [17:06]
Simon Hunter
Yep.
- [17:07]
Chad Millman
If they're playing the same team again and they're a dog again, the favorite is 7 and 2 against a spread in that exact spot, covering the spread by seven points per game. So you know, there are long term trends that do favor the Rams. And you know, I, right away I was thinking myself, what is, what is McVeigh stats? Because I give him a model of the time, right? McVeigh. Yeah, he dominates late in the season. We talked about that December run. The other thing we've talked about too is him as a big road favorite. He's just been incredible, especially against the spread. You know, a lot of people ask if it's just safer go Moneyline, obviously, but we're talking spreads here. That's what we do on the show. Straight up though, McVeigh is a favorite on the road 34 and 10. You know, not shocking spread though. 26 and 18 against the spread, which is really impressive when the, when he's a fared above four points on the road is 19 and two straight up in his career. ATS 12 and nine. Still though, that straight up number is insane. Like I know someone like me that's making a couple really big bets. The Rams, I'm gonna, I'll be that fish. I'll throw them in a couple big bets moneyline wise just to eat some of the juice because it's, it's crazy how Dominic McVeigh is against really bad teams. And we've talked a little bit about Stafford. You know, he struggled this season against bad teams. If you look at his record, I mean people know he lost to Atlanta.
- [18:29]
Simon Hunter
He's got a, he's got a play with his food issue. That is the one thing that is concerning me. Like they played with their food with Arizona. They played with their food with Tennessee in September, right. And they didn't blow them out until late in the game. They played with their food with the Niners when the Niners were down. So many guys ended up losing that game and that had an impact on their seating. There have been moments, stretches where Stafford and McVeigh, they sort of disappear for about a quarter. That is a definite concern here.
- [19:03]
Chad Millman
And I'm, I'm going to be hitting you guys with this statistic in a couple different games. But I talk about every year it's an easy money maker for you lazy betters. Quarterbacks with playoff experience or versus quarterbacks without playoff experience. 20, 39 and 1 against the spread. So Bryce Young in this spot, if you bet on him, it's a 34% cover rate. Like it's just a first time starters against these quarterbacks. Doesn't work out even straight up. It's 20 and 40. So even more so. It's, it's, it's just terrible, terrible odds for these quarterbacks making their first start. So we're going to go through all the games obviously. But this goes to Bryce Young against Stafford, Caleb Williams against Jordan Love and Drake May against Justin Herbert. So just blindly taking those quarterbacks ATS wise is just a money maker getting a 66% win rate in playoff super since the super bowl era. So it's a crazy stab. We talk all the time experience. It does matter. Especially with quarterbacks that have won before in the playoffs.
- [20:05]
Simon Hunter
Any thoughts on the total? 46 and a half.
- [20:08]
Chad Millman
Yeah, really love, there's people are gonna see a pattern here. I love the unders this week. We talk all the time. What you're always looking for is playoff outdoors. Like that's usually get some weather usually get a little bit of coldness for especially these west coast teams coming east. They have to get, you know adjusted to that that it's just different playing in 30 degrees rather than temperature control 7 degrees like we all know. And this weekend all six wild card games are outdoors. Another if you've just been blindly betting outdoor unders since 2004 in the wild card games 49 and 23. So 68 win rate if you just blindly bet these under since 2004 outdoors. So you know, even better if the total is above 41 in those outdoor games. Chad. The under is 42 and 14 in the wild cards. Yes. So I know there's, there's a bunch of games where I initially was like, oh I'm going to love these overs. This is one right away where I was like, oh my God, this is below 48. Don't fall for it. Take the under 46 and a half. You could easily see Bryce on laid a total egg and this be a 247 type of win for this Rams team.
- [21:17]
Simon Hunter
Well, Millman's hoping so Chad's choice.
- [21:19]
Chad Millman
I am too. Jed. Honestly, if Devonte Adams gets cleared, I think you might be ahead of it. This could easily jump another point. So I, I don't hate you probably getting the best number here. I'm just going to be patient just in case he does get clear. This drops down to nine and a half or nine.
- [21:31]
Simon Hunter
All right. Saturday night, 8:00pm Eastern. Amazon Prime. Green Bay packers visiting the Chicago Bears. The Bears are currently a 1 point favorite. The total is 46.
- [21:46]
Chad Millman
Chicago, Chicago that title in town.
- [21:52]
Simon Hunter
Chicago.
- [21:53]
Chad Millman
Chicago I will show you around I love it.
- [21:59]
Simon Hunter
Look, it's been, it's been jumping around. It's gone from packers plus one and a half to Bears plus one and a half. It feels like there is a complete and total dividend in the professional betting community right now on this game because it seems to move with every, every bet moves it one way or the other. The total is 46 like I said. So based on all that and the fact that it's going to be outdoors and cold, even that feels a little bit high to me. So we know we're going to like the under in this game. But I have, I can't get, I can't get to a consensus opinion in my head on this game. The one thing I'll say is that the Bears have only Been in these games because of miraculous comebacks in the third and fourth quarters. Otherwise the packers have dominated these games. Dominated. And that says something to me.
- [22:56]
Chad Millman
Well, if you're lost, buddy, I just gave you, literally just gave you that stat. You should just blindly. Well, up here.
- [23:02]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, exactly. And I also, I would say like I wrote down a note here, Moneyline parlay on the Rams, the Packers and the Chargers.
- [23:11]
Chad Millman
But yeah, it's. We're watching history. This is truly history where this is the oldest rivalry in football and they've only played in the playoff two other times. I was shocked to see that stat shout out to Bill Simmons who gave that out. I couldn't believe that. I was like, I have to look this up. There's no way this man is right right now. He's right. The last time they. The first time, first time they played in the playoffs, 1941. The second time, 2010. Chad probably doesn't remember that 1940s one because the Bears won, but he remembers the 2010 one where the Bears beat him 21 to 14, I think was that Jay Color who got.
- [23:46]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [23:49]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Crazy, crazy. You guys have only met three times in the playoffs. I, I really. That blew my mind. So yeah, the oldest rivalry in football has just been owned by the packers. And you know, it's a new era with Ben Johnson. You guys are giving your best. I've talked about it though. Eventually it was going to swing the other way. The pendulum. You just kept getting away with it all season. You kept stealing these games. The end of the games and it felt like Detroit, it was going to happen. I don't know about you, but I, if San Francisco, I feel like it was going to happen. Detroit feels going to happen. It felt like you finally was going your way. And both times Caleb couldn't bring up the Magic Right. That third and 10 or whatever it was against Lions, he couldn't make it happen. What was it the three seconds left or choosing left with the San Francisco game? He had a guy, he just missed him. So could it work out for you for the Bears, Chad? I think it can. But I can tell you the pros I've talked to and the way I'm leaning is really towards the Packers. It's just the exact team you want to be backing here that they rested everybody. The Bears had a full on brawl last week. Their defense played what, 60 snaps and just got abused up and down the field. Now on a short week against a rusted Green Bay team, I mean the hope will just be Green Bay has Just been such dog. I mean what do they lost four or five straight? They've been horrible.
- [25:05]
Simon Hunter
They lost three straight. Josh Jacobs banged up. Obviously Tucker Kraft hasn't played for a while. Receivers are in and out. Jordan Love out of the protocol. No Micah Cart, no Micah Parsons. Like there's reasons why they've faded at the end of the year, you know. And so even if they are trying to get healthy and rested a lot of guys, they're still not the packers team that everyone thought was one of the better rosters throughout most of the year.
- [25:30]
Chad Millman
Yeah. And that's why I'm just expecting all the money and everybody just to come in very heavy on this Bear side so you can get the plus one and a half on Green Bay. I'll grab it now but like this is the game I'm not. I haven't bet a lot of money into. Obviously I have invested in the under. The under. I believe it opened at 47 or 46 and it's dropped already down to 45 and a half or 46. So just another like I said outdoor under. Blindly bet it one of these quarterbacks is going to lay in total leg and Jordan Love could come out after not playing after a couple weeks and fall flat on his face and just be terrible. Caleb Williams, we just saw him do nothing for three quarters against the Lions last week. Secondary that is riddled with injuries. So you know this packers team, this. They lost Micah, they lost the pass rush. Like they're. This is a winnable game for the Bears. It's just. I feel like it's. It's this the hardest thing ever for that. That first time quarterback in the playoffs to get used to the speed and the indifference of the compared to regular season. It's just simply different. Every player you've ever talked to always says it is simply different. That that stat I gave out backs it up right. These first time quarterbacks, 20 and 40 their last 60 starts straight up. So it's just a brutal start to for. For the Bears here I have to say the two seed. You would hope to get some rollover team in the seventh seed. It's. You guys are in the toughest division. You know the deal right. Everyone was above.500. Unfortunately you got the packers in this historical rivalry. So I'm interested what the pros are going to do. I also have more info come Thursday. But yes sit here right now. Early money for me Chad. It's gonna be in that Green Bay plus one and a half in Chicago. Chicago, Chicago. That's my hometown.
- [27:25]
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- [28:08]
Ed Zitron
I'm Ed Zitron of the Better Offline Podcast and I want you to join me at this year's Consumer Electronics show in Las Vegas, Nevada. Starting January 6th through January 10th, 2026, we're doing 10 radio style podcast episodes about the world's biggest tech conference and we're going to dig into the latest and weirdest gadgets, gizmos and horrible AI gear that the tech industry is desperate to sell you all while covering the biggest stories in Silicon Valley as the AI bubble threatens to burst. I'll be joined by David Roth, Chloe Radcliffe, Adam Conover, Cory Doctorow, Ed on Gueso junior Robert Evans, and an incredible cast of the greatest talent in the tech media with over 18 hours of interviews, commentary and bizarre stories all told from the better offline pop up studio connected to its own own open bar.
- [28:49]
Simon Hunter
Today I did five hours of back to back panels on artificial intelligence.
- [28:53]
Chad Millman
It included a number of great moments.
- [28:55]
Simon Hunter
Including an entire room full of people laughing about people losing their jobs due to artificial intelligence.
- [29:01]
Ed Zitron
Will we make it out Alive? There's only one way to find out. Tune in starting January 6th through January 10th, 2026 and listen to the literal best tech podcast ever recorded. Listen to Better offline on the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcasts. Wherever you happen to get, get your.
- [29:14]
Simon Hunter
Podcasts Sunday games January 11th open up the slate with the Buffalo Bills at the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jags are one point underdogs at Hard Rock. Honestly one and a half at most other places total is 52.
- [29:34]
Chad Millman
Fasten your seat belts. It's playoff time. Ready to get it on in an AFC Wild card game. And the road to the super bowl starts here. The Bills will have to travel the long way to get to the super bowl this year. They will have to go on the road. So as I said, fasten your seatbelts. It's time to play football on three. One, two, three.
- [29:57]
Simon Hunter
Matt Mitchell's confidence in this game, and he has mentioned it a few times and in our pre show chats, he's honestly making faces that are so dismissive of the Jags. Do you know what I mean? Like, have you seen it? Like, he's scrunching up his eyes. He's like, come on, come on. What are we talking about here? We're talking about a Jags team that's overrated and Buffalo Bills with a MVP quarterback. Like, he's projecting so much confidence right now, it almost makes me uncomfortable.
- [30:33]
Chad Millman
Working harder to be. And it's another game I'm. It's just these are the only two games I'm really waffling. Other games I'm very dug in on. But this one here, I wanted to be on the Jags. And it's like when I went to bed that night, I woke up and thinking, what am I doing? What am I doing to go against Josh Allen? Thank God, though, I have a team of nerds that could hit me with all these stats to kind of pull me back in. Why? We do love this Jaguar team. But, yeah, Matt's confidence, I love it because it's so north Northeast bias. I feel like where it's just pooh pooing. These southern teams.
- [31:03]
Simon Hunter
It's Southern teams. Yeah, these teams aren't tough. They don't play. It's like they're playing 7 on 7 in Jacksonville.
- [31:12]
Chad Millman
But, yeah, we. We talk all the time about Josh Allen in the playoffs, right. Where he's at home against bad teams. We hammer them. I mean, last year, what did they get? The Broncos, and they just smacked them around that first round. Unfortunately for them, you know, they're not up there. They're not at sweet old Orchard Park Lane. They're. They're, they're down in Florida. And Josh Allen in the playoffs, in his career, on the road, 0 and 4 straight up and against the spread. Yikes. I had no idea it's that bad. Now, I guess that's my home staff, but my God, that's. That's pretty rough. So it's.
- [31:50]
Simon Hunter
That's entirely Mahomes. I'll tell you right now. What's. What's funny about this is, you know, we put notes in a script and whatever Matt Mitchell, the amount of times he put notes in the script on actual games that we're talking about over the course of this season, I can't even. I don't know that it's ever happened. And yet in the script, I have so many notes about the Bill's dominance in the playoffs. I cannot tell you. Seven consecutive seasons in the playoffs, most in the NFL since 2020 versus Kansas City. 04. So there's your 4. Scoring 28 points per game, giving up 35 points per game versus all other teams. 7 and 1 scoring 28, giving up 19. The defense gives up half the points versus teams that are not Reed and Mahomes. So clearly there's someone in the script who's. Who's leaning into the Bills.
- [32:50]
Chad Millman
But she should. But yeah, like the other Josh Allen stuff. Yeah, you could say it's a lot of Mahomes but he also doesn't really cover in the playoffs. Right. His career. He's 5, 8 against the spread in the playoffs in his career. So it's, you know, that's, that's not a Mahomes that he doesn't cover it against other teams as well. But you know the Bills, they just have not been good on the road. They've lost eight straight games in the playoffs on the road. Once again I get it. It's been the defense that let them down. This defense is terrible. They don't have a number one receiver. This Jags team has been putting up an scene amount of points. So this just feels like the exact game that you know if Josh Allen was a two point dog or a three point dog. Yes. All over it. It's gonna be a back and forth game. Whoever's the ball last is going to cover. He's not, he's a favorite on the road here and he might be banged up like we don't have all the info. So like another game on wall for all. But I lean towards the dog, lean towards the Jags and just, you know, they're just more complete team. They do have a defense that can get stops. That to me is gonna be the ultimate matchup here. Can they stop Cook like the leading rusher in the NFL with one of the best lines in the Bills. That's their, that's their biggest weapon. If they can run the ball, control the clock, never let Lawrence get into a rhythm. That's definitely how the Bills win this. Right. Because their defense, we've seen it, right. They get one or two plays that flips the whole game because that's all Josh Allen needs. He needs one or two plays from his defense and that just gives him such a boost where you know, like you just read all those stats. Every time in the playoffs you need to put up 35 points and it's no different here. Like this is going to me it's the one game I've taken the over so people aren't gonna be shocked. I'm going all under on the playoffs. But there's a reason this game's 51. Like the total is 51 and a half and I'm gonna take that over. I just think it's gonna be a total shootout here. So yeah, I'm really excited for and if you are like me and you're a little scared to bet against Josh Allen, you're wavering a little bit. I have just invested in the Jags first half. This is a Billston we've been talking a year about. Josh Allen gets down by 14 points. We bet Josh Allen at that point. It's been no different this season. They're 5 and 12 against the spread. They've just been terrible. So if you want to do the coward way and avoid the full game, I don't, I don't mind going Jags first half.
- [35:03]
Simon Hunter
You now Matt Mitchell is just talking trash in the script. He's saying, I'm sure the Jacksonville Jaguars will treat Buffalo like their just December schedule of the corpse of the Indianapolis Colts and the Jets. So we know where Matt Mitchell is. He's running to the window right now. This is it, brother. This is it. 4:30pm Game Sunday San Francisco 49ers at the Philadelphia Eagles On Sunday night you were talking about the Eagles at minus three. Definitely the biggest move of the week so far of any game. It's moved up to four and a half. It's a four at Hard Rock. Total's 45.
- [35:39]
Chad Millman
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania A true Philadelphia fan learns to boo before he learns to speak. Each Sunday they turn out many sitting in seats they inherited from their parents.
- [35:52]
Simon Hunter
You know our fans come from great stock and they'll fight you.
- [35:55]
Chad Millman
They'll fight you.
- [35:56]
Simon Hunter
They'll tell you if you're not doing a good job.
- [35:58]
Chad Millman
But they won't let anybody else boo.
- [36:00]
Simon Hunter
Us when they're there.
- [36:01]
Chad Millman
They're going to help us win the game.
- [36:03]
Simon Hunter
Niners defense was already in bad shape. Now Tatum Bethume is out with a groin tear. He's going to be out for the playoffs. But to me this is really all about Trent Williams. The Niners are just a different team when Trent Williams plays. We've done the stats for so many years about when Trent Williams plays. This team covers, this team wins when he does not play because they are so reliant on his dominant run blocking ability. They are just a different team. We saw it against Seattle the other night and when he went out by the way, when it was official, the line jumped from one and a half to three. So, you know, the, the. If he's playing, I think it's a bit of a different number. I don't want to. The Eagles rush defense hasn't been great this year, but I kind of feel like that's a. You can answer this better as an Eagles bird watcher, but I don't buy into those stats because I also think the Eagles pass defense is so dominant in the secondary that teams just run the ball more. Teams ran them all ran the ball more against the Eagles than any other team this year in the NFL. So a lot of those are gross numbers. You're gonna have bigger gross numbers when. And I mean gross versus net, not gross, gross. When the team is always running the ball. So I'm waffling here. I know you love the Eagles. Take it away.
- [37:32]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I love them upset. I was trying to hide it open. I mean, I gave out a little bit that was going to be on them, but I, I can't believe this number bloom ballooned up like it did. I, I thought the public would be all over the Niners and a lot of pros, but been a little bit of buyback. I saw a couple books touch five, came back down to four and a half and now a couple books are back to four. So, yeah, I, I love this match with the Eagles team like the Seattle Seahawks and the Eagles are really not that much different when you really break it down, especially when you grade it out. The Eagles are better. Like if they just had an oc, they would be a better team. They're more the most complete team. And you could say, well, their run defense struggled. Jalen Carter was basically playing with two torn pecs for about six weeks there, and they couldn't stop the run. Since he's been back, he's looked like his old self. And you know, he said he's gonna get a search during the offseason. Whatever they did to fix his shoulders, you can, you can notice what difference, especially with the run defense with him and Jordan Davis, who, you know, Jordan Davis, probably mean all pro himself. This season. He had a really dominant season. The only reason he might not get is because obviously Seahawks have two dominant all pros themselves on the D line. But for this game here, I immediately thought, okay, people are going to overreact to this Eagles team because they just now trust them. All season where I've talked about it, they always have done this every year in the sense that Jalen hurts, does not go 100%. I know it sounds bizarre, but he just never lays his body in the line during the regular season and he does in the playoffs. I mean, no one's ever going to say he's a top five running quarterback, NFL history, but they simply forget that in the playoffs. He is that guy. And he's his first time in the super bowl. He set the record for rushing quarterbacks with 70 yards and he broke it the next time in the Super bowl with 72 rushing yards. It's just he's a different player in the playoffs. He just uses his body, always will take it down and run it and fight for those extra yards. And this is a defense that like you've talked about or we've talked about, they have the worst pass rush in all football. They have the least amount of pressures and sacks this entire season NFL and you know, as much good grace you want to give the Seattle and the Sam Darnold, they really just ran the ball down their throats here. And you think Saquon be able to do that as well. So, you know, look at the numbers. Jalen hurts at home in the playoffs. 5, 0 straight up in his career. 4 and 1 against the spread. Winning those games like 21 points per game, you know, in his career. So including the regular season hurts 31 and 5 straight up at home. When he's a home favorite in December or later. 131 straight up in his career at home. So he just dominates and win these games. On the flip side, Brock Purdy who's, you know, been a great quarterback, we've talked a little about it. He's a weird guy where when he's a dog, the books, I went against it last week with him against Seattle. The books are telling a little bit that Birdie Purdy struggles as a dog especially against good defense in his career. Every time he's a dog. As against a top five rated defense which if you look at all the metrics this season, the Eagles did finish top five in these amounts of points given up like yards, all of it. The Eagles were a top 5 graded defense. Purdy his career014 straight up against the spread as a dog in this exact game against top five defenses failing to cover the spread by almost 12 points per game. So Purdy just does not play well against dominant defense like that. And you saw, you talked a little bit with Trent last week. I think the biggest thing I noticed was McCaffrey just looked slow. He looked banged up and he looked like a guy that's had what 450 touches this season. I mean he was a couple, you know, Maybe it was 50 yards away from a thousand thousand yard season and he had almost 100 catches. So you know you saw a catch up to him. He just carried the load and it's really wear and tear. So they're playing a rested team against this Eagles team and this Niners have an all out brawl the week before against Seattle. So I, I totally get why the pros have come in so heavy on this Eagles team and I'm gonna grab it now. I think it keeps going up. I think if Lane Johnson gets cleared, I can easily see this creeping up back again to five and maybe close at six. And this is why I love this week so much. This is the biggest home favorite this week. Isn't that not crazy? Eagles minus four. It's just this season was so good in this playoffs. It just lined up that way with these home teams. Eagles the biggest favorite is minus four. It's crazy.
- [41:44]
Simon Hunter
The best, the number was three. You don't mind it at four. What is your ceiling for betting this with Lane Johnson?
- [41:53]
Chad Millman
I have this at six and a half.
- [41:55]
Simon Hunter
Wow.
- [41:56]
Chad Millman
But again that's not that shocking. Just because this 49ers team, you just said they're decimated with injuries. So yeah, they whooped all these really bad defense. You saw as soon as they run into a legit defense. That was shocking. I can't, I still can't believe pretty only put up three points. That was truly shocking. But yeah, the Eagles defense, obviously not as good as Seattle but like you said, one of the best, one of the best past defenses in football this season has been the Eagles. So it's gonna be a true test for prettier on the road.
- [42:26]
Simon Hunter
Again. The total is 45.
- [42:29]
Chad Millman
Hammer that under.
- [42:30]
Simon Hunter
Hammer that under. Last game on Sunday, the Los Angeles Chargers plus three and a half visiting the New England Patriots. I will refer to your comment a few weeks ago when we were talking about the Patriots. I can't wait to fade the Patriots in the playoffs. We know the trends. You've mentioned them at the top about first year quarterbacks in the playoffs against veteran quarterbacks. We bet, we bet the Chargers on Sunday night at three and a half. It's one of the few numbers that kind of hasn't moved. No juice movement, no number movement. Total in this game is 46. We're on the Chargers. Even though they're. Their offensive line is decimated and we know the Patriots are getting totally healthy. I think we're just back in a Veteran quarterback here and fading the team that has been getting a lot of flack for playing a really easy schedule all year.
- [43:29]
Chad Millman
Yeah. And you're not lying like I, I every time I go through these Chargers offensive line grades. Jesus blocking, run blocking, just their get off screen. It's crazy how bad they are. They are. If there was five more teams NFL they might be the 36 worth offensive line. So it's, it's crazy how bad they are, but it's not their fault. Right. They lost two tackles, they took at crazy high draft picks and, and that was going to be the thing that made a big difference for them this season. So Herbert, you know, guy I love hating on because of his playoff failures, can you give him a pass this year because he is going into such a hostile environment and playing against a team that has played really well this year in this Patriots team. Sure. But this is a game that he should win, right? Herbert should win this game. When you really break it all down, this is a Chargers defense that they're, they're the reason they've been winning this year. Minter, I talked about, he's been great. We've talked all the time. Herbert, this is a blind bet. I think we talked something that you blindly bet this year. Herbert as a dog, let alone a dog above 3 and 3, 13, 6 and 1 in his career as a starter and this season, shockingly as a dog, he's had four straight up wins which in the past he's not won a lot as a dog. Straight up this year though he's 4, 0. So really impressive what Herbert's done as a dog. And we talked about a little streak he had right. He, he stole that game from the Eagles. He was playing terrible. That defense played well enough and Herbert made enough big time throws to steal that game. And same thing the next week, he stole that game. And you know, it's just been that type of year for Herbert in this offense. So you know I, I was coming to this, I, I was thinking okay, this number will get bumped up. Everyone's going to hammer this Patriots team. I think even Patriots fans are like a little scared here because they are going berserk about this MVP nonsense. And I'm loving yes on the outside, it's, it's the best because you see from both points of views and you see how both sides are just trying to tear into each other. But you know it is true everything we've said about Drake May and how he's been against winning teams and you know, in his career or not his career this season at home against teams that are above.500. He is just one in three straight up in these games. And I'm sorry. And this year he's 0 and 1 this year. So like we've talked about, he hasn't really played teams of winning records. He's only. He played the Bills at home and he lost that game obviously. So you know, true test for them. And Vrabel and you know, in his, in his career, hardball. I know this is obviously before Vrabel was there. He's done really well coming up to New England when Bill. But Bill Bell, Bill Belichick was the coach. I believe he's two and oh, his career. Harbaugh.
- [46:07]
Simon Hunter
Easy. Easy for you to say.
- [46:08]
Chad Millman
Yeah, he's got, he's got the history on his side with that and the travel. But I loved that the Chargers rested their starters. I just think of it when I think about this game, it's like that's a team that really needed that rest, especially that offense line altogether. So if it was two and a half, maybe I could be talking to the Patriots. But three, there's. If you only could get three of your book, that's the best time we can get it. I'd still take the Chargers, but there's three and a half's everywhere. So I, I really like these Chargers in this number. And you know another game where the under just. Yeah, feels like the right number where I, I cannot believe this felt like it was gonna be a 42, 41 total.
- [46:42]
Simon Hunter
I gotta tell you.
- [46:43]
Chad Millman
Seven. They don't know 47, Chad. It's already down to 46 and a half. So I keep betting that one. This feels like a defensive slug match and I gave up those numbers. Chargers defense, number one against deep ball passing. So I love this. Drake May one of the best deep ball throwers this season. Easily best test he's had all year is going to be this Chargers defense trying to throw deep, especially against James and that, that safety.
- [47:07]
Simon Hunter
The total feels so high for a game where it was a game with two coaches who, you know they're going to want to be conservative.
- [47:15]
Chad Millman
Shockingly I've, I've seen three different books. All their numbers show the early money is on the over. So it could, it could go back up. But it did open. It came down a little bit. I just, I want people to grab these unders now just in case the pros do come in and we don't know, we don't know yet what the weather is going to be but there could be a nor Eastern coming for this for this Sunday's game, so should.
- [47:33]
Simon Hunter
Be interested let's do a quick word from our friends at Hard Rock. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet, Florida's Sportsbook and the official sportsbook partner of your favorite Florida teams like the Jags, Bucks, Heat and Magic. The NFL playoffs kick off in just a few days and it's the perfect time to build the same game parlay on Hard Rock Bet and cash in on all the action. Or if you're more into hardwood than the gridiron, you can put up shots on the NBA and college every night on Hard Rock Bet, your home for hoops action all season long. And if you missed the start of the game, don't worry. Hard Rock Bet has live in game betting so you're never too late to bet any football or hoops game all season. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet, there's still time for you to get a hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. If you win, just place a five dollar bet and if it hits, you get not only your winnings but an all extra $150 in bonus bets. The Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook app is the only legal sports book in the beautiful state of Florida. Plus Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, Colorado and Michigan. Coming soon to more states too. Plus Hard Rock Bet offers new promos every single day. So whenever you're listening, just open the app and check out what you've got any day of the week and download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit payable in bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1833 playwise in Indiana, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809-with-IT gambling problem call 1-800-GAMBLER in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia.
- [49:39]
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- [50:24]
Ed Zitron
Offline Podcast and I want you to join me at this year's Consumer Electronics show in Las Vegas, Nevada. Starting January 6th through January 10th, 2026, we're doing 10 radio style podcast episodes about the world's biggest tech conference. And I'll be joined by David Roth, Chloe Radcliffe, Adam Conover, Cory Doctorow, and a host of other guests to tell you all about what the tech industry is desperate to sell you in 2020.
- [50:45]
Simon Hunter
Today I did five hours of back to back panels on artificial intelligence.
- [50:50]
Chad Millman
It included a number of great moments.
- [50:52]
Simon Hunter
Including an entire room full of people laughing about people losing their jobs due to artificial intelligence.
- [50:57]
Ed Zitron
It's going to be the single best coverage of CES ever recorded, even if it kills us. Listen to Better offline on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever you happen to get your podcasts.
- [51:08]
Simon Hunter
All right brother. Monday Night Football. We got the Houston Texans visiting the glorious miraculous. So much fun. All the emotions. Pittsburgh Steelers. They're three and a half point underdogs at home. The total is 39 and a half.
- [51:24]
Chad Millman
Put yourself in this difficult situation. You're a professional football player, your team is on the road and your team bus has just arrived outside Pittsburgh's Three River Station Stadium.
- [51:45]
Simon Hunter
Before I get into it, lay it on me.
- [51:48]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Going back to the well, Chad Simon says, give me this Steelers team plus three and a half. Home dog. I want to play a game. Simon says.
- [51:58]
Simon Hunter
Simon says. Presented by Hard Rock Bad. Pittsburgh Steelers plus three and a half.
- [52:04]
Chad Millman
Man, an opportunity to get a quality dude at a discount. Like what we talking about.
- [52:10]
Simon Hunter
I love it. I'm in. I had bet it before we even spoke about it. I don't even mind the total here. Like the under for me is so interesting. People are going to be fooled by what the Texans did last week and their offense and they're going to see 38 points. They're not going to realize that one of those touchdowns came at the end of the game when the Colts were going pitchy pitchy woo woo. And one of the Texans huge defensive linemen got the ball and ran it back for a touchdown from 10 yards out. They had six field goals in that game, so the Texans offense only scored 14 points. We know the Steelers went crazy in that game, but they went crazy because Kyle Hamilton left the game. And the Texans defense is just so freaking good. So this is prime to be one of those 1714 games. The Steelers are getting DK Metcalf back. But give me your thoughts here. Give me your logic. Is it a Rah Rah Tomlin spot? What's the theory?
- [53:11]
Chad Millman
Let the greatest of all time look at your work. Oh, yeah. Oh, I'm about to spend like 10 minutes here on this team. I. I love this line so much. Biggest bet by far this week has been Pittsburgh on the three and a half and can't, can't get enough of it. Can't. And the books are loving it because everyone's just hammering Houston. Every book I go to, they go, yeah, yeah, yeah, we'll give you the three and a half months. Here's. It's, it's the best. It's a good time here on Bermuda. I'm not gonna lie. It's a great time. I knew all these stats were going to be insane with Aaron Rodgers and the fact that he is. I know it's a long time ago, but he at the end of the day is a Super bowl winning quarterback who is now in the playoffs. And that to me will always be an advantage. Now he's never repeated. Right. I mean, those Green Bay teams, I think every time me and you were on the other side, luckily we just always faded him in the conference championship game and they just always blew it. But this is not that. This is a wild card weekend with Rogers as a home dog and you know, the numbers are pretty insane. Since 2003, super winning book, super bowl winning quarterbacks in the playoffs that they're underdog 64, 25 and 2. So 72% against the spread after they win a Super bowl since 2018, these quarterbacks. So quarterbacks who have won Super Bowls in their career, after 2018, in the playoffs as an underdog 16 and five against the spread pedigree, they've been there. They've been in those moments. It's hard to really.
- [54:33]
Simon Hunter
Wait, wait, wait. Was that first stat for quarterback since 2003 only as an underdog or was that against the spread as super bowl winning quarterback?
- [54:43]
Chad Millman
Okay, I can't believe I'm saying this, but I feel like Pittsburgh's defense has gotten better all season. I know, Much better. Their defense had just total, horrible blown coverages. And don't even get me started on Jalen Ramsey. But they always find a way to get the turnover and they, they've Been better against the run. And you know, I, I always talk about Tomlin. This a grow up moment right here.
- [55:04]
Simon Hunter
For you young studs. Let's live.
- [55:05]
Chad Millman
The Monday night stats with him are crazy. I think a couple weeks ago I was pounding the table. You have to take Steelers on a Monday night game. Just blindly take their money line against that horrible Miami Dolphins team. And what did they. They beat him by like 20 points. It's just as soon as I saw they gave him the money that game, I was so happy for Pittsburgh because it's all lining up like I'm, I'm gonna keep going through this game, but I do have some NFL futures I'm gonna throw out here at the end. But Tomlin in Pittsburgh at home on a Monday night in his career or just any even on the road included, he's 23 and 5 in his career. Tomlin on the road or at home Straight up in his career on Monday night at home he's. He's 12 and one straight up. The only loss was during COVID so there's no fans in the stands. That was the only loss on our Tomlin at home. Going back even further. So 1992, they are 23 and one straight up at home. That only loss once again was Jordan Coke. The Pittsburgh Steelers do not lose at home on Monday night. There are teams in pro football, then there are the Pittsburgh Steel, the Voodoo. Keep talking about it. It doesn't make sense. You just blindly bet it. It's a winners. It's just, it's what they do. They win and cover these games. And we've seen Stroud in his career. Shroud has been great at home. We, we bet him at home. I think he's 2 and 0 straight up and against the sprint his career. But he's never won on the road in his career. In the playoffs or covered for that matter in his career. They have had two games on the road. He has scored 24 points total in those matchups. So combined in both games he scored less than 14 points in those games. So we've just seen them offensively struggle even more so this year. Right. This has been a weakness to them all year. So I see this being a gross type of game with DK back. That's a huge advantage where you just saw Houston, they give up big plays downfield and you've seen Rodgers get more comfortable pushing the ball downfield. So I love this matchup so much for this team. And should I get into the futures chat or you got more to say on this Game.
- [57:11]
Simon Hunter
Dude, you're on a roll. I'm just going to sit back and enjoy.
- [57:16]
Chad Millman
Yeah, it's. Oh, I did forget one stat. The Texans were on a nine game win streak. You would think that would be good. Historically that's actually terrible for the playoffs. So teams on a 9, 9 game straight up win streak entering the playoffs, 6 and 19 against the spread since 2022 in the wild card round, feeling to cover by four points per game when those teams are favorites in this matchup. 5 and 14 against the spread. So I know that's bizarre, but it just shows how the public overrates them, right? They kind of bet the number up too much. Historically it's always a point or two up, way higher than it should be. Actually had this game at 2. So I think this is a point and a half off and you're getting really good value here. But let's get to the futures one.
- [57:55]
Simon Hunter
One question. Do you think it'll get to four? Because there are numbers out there like it. The, the juice is all over the board on this. Everyone is at three and a half but some people are at like three and a half minute plus three and a half, minus 120. And then there's another place that is at minus three and a half and looks like it's minus minus 120. So it, it looks like it's moving in any direction here.
- [58:18]
Chad Millman
I will say this a group I really respect put a sizable bet. They work with one of the biggest books in the country, a very public book and they're kind of the one group they let pick their other side to even their books out. They took a substantial bet on the Steelers and they moved them to three. So we will see if a big book like that is the first to go to three. Usually other books that are a little smaller follow suit even off air. Like they just will follow those big books that way. So it could like I talked about that Lamar game, I said this might get up to four and a half by kickoff. The public does not like Pittsburgh. Every time they win. It's always luck. Where we always say it's not luck, it's voodoo. And I think more people are starting to see that. Tomlin, Voodoo is a real thing. So it's to my greater point of the Steelers team gave you that stat about Rogers. He will be a dog every round in this playoffs. But let's really think about this people. What is his path? When you break this down, what is his path? And right now you can get him a 55 to 1 to win the super bowl which I don't know if it's going to happen. I don't think it's going to happen obviously. I mean Tomlin hasn't won a playoff game in six times they're owing six against the spreading straight up their last six playoff games. It's, it's been bad but this is the exact break he needs. He finally has that veteran quarterback who's been there since he's had Roethlisberger and an offense that has been played better down the stretch and their path I just can't get over it. You're telling me what stands in their way is the two seed of Drake maybe or a Brock. You know Bo Nix at the one seed a team and none of us really trouble even in Denver good as their defense has been and you know as great as Bonix played this season I could still lie to myself and see a path Rand Rodgers and this team can get through that like there's just there is no Mahomes and as much as I'm scared of Josh Allen and the Bills it wouldn't be at home he would have to become to Pittsburgh. I already gave you those stats. He just is a different quarterback on the road so I, I just see this for Rogers this Pittsburgh team. I know it sounds crazy but you just have to throw a little bit on if you don't want to take the money line here. I think that's the bet. Don't take the money on Pittsburgh. Take the 55 to 1 because we can just hedge it if we want next round. But I, I for my long shot favorite team this is by far out of all the teams I think this has the best value of 55:1 they were 60 to one of the pros. Bet it down a little bit.
- [60:36]
Simon Hunter
I'm in. Simon, I'm in. Matt Mitchell is in. I'm telling you right now we're all in together. We're doing a grouper and then for.
- [60:45]
Chad Millman
The chalk side I always give out one chalk side. Last year obviously nailed it 10 to 1 on the Eagles. Same thing this year. I already broke it down for you. I still think they're the best in the nfc. Their Achilles heel is going to be the oc. I think Petullo is truly an idiot in the position that you need to be the smartest person in the room in the NFL. The OC needs to be the smartest person. Defenses are so complex these days. You really need a genius and that's, that's fearful to me but everything I'VE read Sierra is helping out the QB coach. Everyone has had their imprint on this offense, and you've seen they're listening to the, listening to the nerds. Like they're taking more snaps on their center, which is better for them offensively. They run better out of it. And now with Lane Johnson coming back, I just think this team's been undervalued by the public. Like, they're the defending super bowl champs. No one's talking about that way. Like, when you hear nfc, they keep saying how it's wide open, even though, you know, this team could have been the two seeds. So it's, it's slept on right now. I think you can get them 11 to 1 or 10 to 1, a couple different books. I, I just don't. You're gonna think it's the homer in me. It's really not. I'm just going off the numbers. I have him as a slight favorite over the Seahawks right now. The books have the Seahawks of the one and then right behind them, the Rams. Like, to me, that's insane when you really think about it. So, yeah, I, I, I'm gonna take the Eagles at longer odds than those two teams. Teams.
- [61:58]
Simon Hunter
All right, so futures. We like the Steelers 55 to 1. We like the Eagles at about 10 to 1 right now because they are behind the Seahawks and the Rams. So much talk about the Rams. I will say that the, the only preseason super bowl future I have, that, that really means I have, I think I have the niners at like 20 to 1 or something like that. But the rest of it for me is matchups. And unfortunately, I think the only matchup I have left is I got Niners, Packers, Eagles, Niners, Packers, Eagles against the Bills, any one of those. And I make a killing. But, you know, I had the Bengals, I had the Chiefs, the Ravens. Those are all dead. Dead.
- [62:58]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I, I gave out. That's still alive. Rams vs. Bills at Crazy odds for, for the Rams and the Bills to be in the Super Bowl. But I'm with you. The Chiefs kind of burned a lot of my tickets. And just for straight up bets, I'm a big Rams guy. I got Rams basically 28 to 1, 27 1. They signed Devonte, got him again at 23 1. And, you know, my only regret was I got scared off in the summer for that final month because the staff.
- [63:23]
Simon Hunter
Are now practicing right.
- [63:25]
Chad Millman
Cost myself a lot of money because they just, they end up being probably the best team this season. I know the records don't reflect that, but you know football, the best team not always ends up with the best record. That's just how it is. So yeah, I'm, I'm with you, Chad. It's. I need some things to happen to get there. I'm not feeling too confident in those long shot but that's, that's the way I play the future markets. It's just fun.
- [63:45]
Simon Hunter
One I would say I'm no joke. I am going to build a bit of a Moneyline parlay on veteran quarterbacks versus quarterbacks who have never been in. So I will be playing that on Thursday.
- [63:59]
Chad Millman
We'll do our Moneyline parlay.
- [64:01]
Simon Hunter
Oh, that's a good idea. That's a really good idea. All right. This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume Podcast network. We will be back on Thursday with more details. The Moneyline parlays are brass balls. We'll do more sharp versus square watch or listen on YouTube at sharp or square like the video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods rate. Review. Subscribe. Leave us 5 stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.
- [64:35]
Chad Millman
Fasten your seat belts. It's playoff time. Foreign this is Sophie Cunningham and West.
- [64:46]
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Chad Millman
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Simon Hunter
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Simon Hunter
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Chad Millman
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Simon Hunter
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Simon Hunter
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Chad Millman
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- [66:07]
Ed Zitron
I'm Ed Zitron of the Better Offline Podcast and I want you to join me at this year's Consumer Electronics show in Las Vegas, Nevada. Starting January 6th through January 10th, 2026, we're doing 10 radio style podcast episodes about the world's biggest tech conference. And I'll be joined by David Ross, Chloe Radcliffe, Adam Conover, Cory Doctorow, and a host of other guests to tell you all about what the tech industry is desperate to sell you in 2026.
- [66:30]
Simon Hunter
Today I did five hours of back to back panels on artificial intelligence.
- [66:35]
Chad Millman
It included a number of great moments.
- [66:37]
Simon Hunter
Including an entire room full of people laughing about people losing their jobs due to artificial intelligence.
- [66:42]
Ed Zitron
It's gonna be the single best coverage of CES ever recorded, even if it kills us. Listen to Better offline on the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcasts Wherever you happen to.
- [66:51]
Chad Millman
Get your podcasts, this is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.