Sharp or Square – NFL Wild Card Weekend Bets (Jan 6, 2026)

Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Podcast: Sharp or Square (iHeartPodcasts & The Volume)

Overview

In this Wild Card Weekend episode, betting expert Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter break down the full slate of NFL playoff games, analyzing sides, totals, and key angles to help listeners determine whether to take a "sharp" (professional) or "square" (public) betting stance. They also revisit regular season results, review contest standings, and offer both historical trends and actionable statistics for each Wild Card matchup.

Episode Structure

Key Segments:

• Regular season recap and contest updates
• Game-by-game Wild Card Weekend breakdown (ATS picks & totals)
• Notable betting stats, trends, and advice
• Future bets and Moneyline parlay strategies

Regular Season Recap & Contest Updates

Winning Record & Community:

• Simon: "Started four and one, ended four and one. Lot of three and two, 13 winning weeks, five losing weeks. Shout out to Chris Sampson on X, who goes by NFL Bets Tracker because he has been updating how we have done with all of our sort of named bets." (06:33)
• Five favorites overall: 51-39 record
• Best winning percentage: "Rock and a Hard Place" bets (61%)
• Sharp vs Square: Chad beat Simon in head-to-head.

Shout-outs:

• Thanking Matt Mitchell for contest running and production, and everyone who followed them to the new network.
• Playoffs schedule for show: Preview shows and rapid recaps (see 10:02 for details).

Game-By-Game Analysis

Rams (-10) at Panthers | Total: 46.5

Main Discussion:

• Simon’s best bet: Rams -10 (Chad’s Choice).
  • "Chad's Choice presented by Hard Rock bet: Los Angeles Rams minus 10." (11:17)
  • Both discuss how uncharacteristic it is for their show to back the Rams against Simon's beloved underdog Panthers.

Rationale & Trends:

• Rams have the best advanced metrics of any playoff team.
• Panthers: Never won as a favorite this year, set historic marks as playoff team, always winning as a dog.
• "Our team has never, never won a game as a favorite and then made the playoffs that season. The super bowl error. This has never happened before." (14:43)
• Massive home underdog: "This is like the biggest home dog we've had in like 25 years." (16:07)
• Sean McVay as a large road favorite: 19-2 straight up (>4 pts), 12-9 ATS.

Experience Angles:

• "Quarterbacks with playoff experience or versus quarterbacks without playoff experience. 20, 39 and 1 against the spread." (19:03)
  • Only covering at a 34% rate for first-timers. Applies to Bryce Young vs Matthew Stafford.

Total:

• Likes the under. "If you've just been blindly betting outdoor unders since 2004 in the wild card games: 49 and 23. So 68% win rate." (20:08)
• Sharp play: Under 46.5.

Memorable moment:

• "Sharp dudes can just see it, you know what I mean?" – Chad (12:01)

Packers at Bears (-1) | Total: 46

Market Movement:

• Line has swung back and forth—total tension and divided pro opinions.

Key Angles:

• Bears have needed miracles to win vs Packers, who've largely dominated.
• "The Bears have only Been in these games because of miraculous comebacks... Otherwise the packers have dominated these games. Dominated." – Chad (21:58)
• Oldest rivalry in football; only third time they have met in the playoffs. (23:11)

Injury/Rest Notes:

• Packers rested players, Bears “had a full on brawl” and heavy snaps last week.
• Packers are healthier and may be undervalued.

Betting Preference:

• Simon slightly leans Packers +1.5 (Money coming in on Bears likely).
  • "I feel like it's. It's this the hardest thing ever for that. That first time quarterback in the playoffs to get used to the speed... It's just simply different." (26:03)
• Strong under lean. "Obviously I have invested in the under." (25:30)

Quote:

• "Chicago, Chicago, that's my hometown." – Simon (27:24)

Bills (-1) at Jaguars | Total: 52

Narrative:

• Bills fan/producer Matt Mitchell extremely confident—dismisses Jags.
  • "He's projecting so much confidence right now, it almost makes me uncomfortable." – Simon (29:57)
• Chad and Simon are split, “waffling."

Key Trends:

• Josh Allen on the road in playoffs: 0-4 ATS and straight-up (31:11)
• Bills on the road, in particular, have lost eight straight playoff games.

Jags Case:

• Jags offense can put up points; potentially more complete team.
• "I lean towards the dog, lean towards the Jags and just, you know, they're just more complete team." (34:43)

Totals:

• Only game Chad likes the OVER: "There's a reason this game's 51... I just think it's gonna be a total shootout here." (34:43)
• Side note: Chad likes the Jags 1st half as the “coward’s way”.

Producer banter:

• Matt: "I'm sure the Jacksonville Jaguars will treat Buffalo like their just December schedule of the corpse of the Indianapolis Colts and the Jets." (35:03)

49ers at Eagles (-4) | Total: 45

Line movement:

• Opened -3, moved to -4.5, some buyback to 4.

Injury/Impact Players:

• "Niners defense was already in bad shape. Now Tatum Bethume is out... but to me this is really all about Trent Williams." (36:02)
• "Niners are just a different team when Trent Williams plays."

Eagles’ case:

• Jalen Hurts in playoffs: 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS at home.
• Eagles home-field historical dominance, especially late season/playoffs.
  • "Including the regular season Hertz: 31 and 5 straight up at home..." (37:31)
• Purdy as dog vs top-5 defense: 0-14 ATS (historically struggles).
• Chad: "I love this matchup with the Eagles team." (37:31)
• Chad’s personal line: "I have this at six and a half." (41:53)

Matchup Stat:

• "This is the biggest home favorite this week... Eagles minus four. It's crazy." (41:44)

Total:

• Both say: "Hammer that under." (42:29)

Chargers (+3.5) at Patriots | Total: 46

Rationale:

• Patriots offense, led by Drake May, is overhyped; Chargers defense is excellent, especially vs deep balls.
• "Herbert as a dog, let alone a dog above 3 and 3, 13, 6 and 1 in his career as a starter... Straight up this year though he's 4-0." (43:29)
• Patriots’ soft schedule gets exposed vs veteran QB.

Prop Notes:

• Chargers rested starters, potentially huge.
• Patriots home underdogs rarely win in playoffs, especially with rookie QBs.

Totals:

• Both like the under; some early money hit the over, but hosts expect this to close lower.
• "This feels like a defensive slug match." (46:43)

Texans at Steelers (+3.5) | Total: 39.5

Simon Says: Steelers +3.5 (FAVORITE PLAY)

• "Going back to the well, Chad. Simon says, give me this Steelers team plus three and a half. Home dog." (51:47)

Rationale:

• Rah-Rah Tomlin spot, "voodoo" home-field edge.
• “Since 2003, super bowl winning QBs as playoff underdogs: 64-25-2 (72% ATS).” (53:10)
• Tomlin’s Monday Night dominance: 12-1 SU at home, only loss during COVID with no fans.
  • "Going back even further. So 1992, they are 23 and 1 straight up at home." (55:05)
• CJ Stroud: Never won or covered on road in the playoffs.

Trends/Fade Texans:

• Teams entering playoffs on 9-game win streak: "Actually terrible for the playoffs... 6 and 19 ATS since 2022 in the Wild Card round.” (57:16)
• Simon’s number: “I actually had this game at 2, so I think this is a point and a half off.”

Total:

• Like the under. Expecting a 17-14 type of game.

Futures:

• Steelers 55:1 to win Super Bowl is the best longshot value. "He will be a dog every round in this playoffs. But... what stands in their way?” (58:18)
• Eagles 10 or 11:1 is the chalk side pick.

Quote:

• "The Pittsburgh Steelers do not lose at home on Monday night. There are teams in pro football, then there are the Pittsburgh Steelers. The voodoo. Keep talking about it. It doesn't make sense. You just blindly bet it. It's a winners." – Chad (55:05)

Wild Card Betting Insights & Notable Trends

• Blindly betting Wild Card underdogs ATS since 2002: 61% win rate.
  • “You kind of want to lean to the dogs in these spots.” (16:07)
• Playoff experience edges: First-time starting QBs against vets are only 34% ATS.
• Wild Card outdoor unders since 2004: 68% win rate; even better with totals above 41.
• Historical home dog (Steelers) and playoff ‘voodoo’: Tomlin MNF, Super Bowl-winning QBs as dogs.

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• Simon: “Sharp dudes can just see it. You know what I mean?” (12:01)
• Chad: “The Bears have only Been in these games because of miraculous comebacks ... Otherwise the packers have dominated.” (21:58)
• Simon: “The Pittsburgh Steelers do not lose at home on Monday night. There are teams in pro football, then there are the Pittsburgh Steelers. The voodoo. Keep talking about it. It doesn't make sense.” (55:05)
• Simon, on Steelers futures: “What stands in their way is the two seed of Drake maybe or a Brock. You know Bo Nix at the one seed a team and none of us really trouble even in Denver good as their defense has been and you know as great as Bonix played this season I could still lie to myself and see a path Rand Rodgers and this team can get through that like there's just there is no Mahomes...” (58:18)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 01:18 — Playoff spirit and contest talk
• 06:33 — Winning weeks and contest stats
• 10:02 — Playoff show schedule & Rams-Panthers intro
• 11:17 — Rams-Panthers analysis (Rams -10, Under 46.5)
• 21:31 — Packers-Bears breakdown (leans Packers+1.5, Under 46)
• 29:34 — Bills-Jags debate (waffling; lean Jags +1, Over 52)
• 35:38 — Niners-Eagles (Eagles -4, Under 45)
• 42:29 — Chargers-Patriots (Chargers +3.5, Under 46)
• 51:08 — Steelers-Texans (Steelers +3.5, UNDER 39.5, Tomlin voodoo)
• 58:18 — Futures: Steelers 55:1, Eagles ~10:1

Summary Table: Sharp or Square Picks

| Game | Side (ATS) | Total | Key Trend/Angle | |----------------------|--------------------|------------------|----------------------------------------------------| | Rams at Panthers | Rams -10 | Under 46.5 | McVay/DD, playoff exp vs rookie QB, historical dog | | Packers at Bears | Packers +1.5 (lean)| Under 46 | Experience, rivalry, defensive battle | | Bills at Jaguars | Jags +1 (lean) | Over 52 | Fading Allen on road, shootout likely | | 49ers at Eagles | Eagles -4 | Under 45 | Hurts home playoff trends, Purdy struggles | | Chargers at Patriots | Chargers +3.5 | Under 46 | Fading 1st time QB, Chargers defense | | Texans at Steelers | Steelers +3.5 | Under 39.5 | Tomlin MNF voodoo, Super Bowl QB as dog |

Futures Bets

• Steelers 55:1 Super Bowl: Great value longshot, best path (see above).
• Eagles 10/11:1 Super Bowl: Chad’s value chalk pick. "They're the defending Super Bowl champs... slept on right now."

Conclusion & Closing

The episode delivers in-depth Wild Card Weekend betting analysis, with actionable advice grounded in historical trends, quarterback experience, and playoff-specific edges. Simon and Chad favor veteran QBs, home underdogs, and, overwhelmingly, the UNDER due to long-term trends for outdoor, cold-weather games. Both hosts reinforce the importance of waiting for injury information in the playoffs and encourage listeners to ride with a Steelers MNF home dog narrative—one of their strongest convictions for Wild Card weekend.

Listen if:

• You want sharp, data-driven betting advice for NFL Wild Card Weekend
• You value trends, psychology, and context as much as analytics
• You enjoy banter about both the pain and thrill of the playoffs

Notable advice: "Blindly betting veteran quarterbacks against first-time playoff starters is a 66% ATS trend." (19:03)

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