Sharp or Square – NFL Wild Card Weekend Reactions

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Episode Date: January 13, 2026
Main Theme:
Chad and Simon react to a punishing NFL Wild Card betting weekend, dissecting the chaos in the games, bad beats, coaching decisions, and key playoff narratives. They offer sharp (wise guy) and square (public) betting insights on major matchups: Bills-Jaguars, Niners-Eagles, Rams-Panthers, Packers-Bears, Texans-Steelers, and Chargers-Patriots. The episode is tinged with betting frustration, gallows humor, and an honest postmortem of their picks.

Episode Overview

The hosts candidly review what they call a "brutal" Wild Card betting weekend, where almost none of their predictions bore fruit. Leaning on humor and self-reflection, they examine what went wrong in each game—particularly coaching decisions, special teams mishaps, and the enduring lesson that playoff football accentuates a team's flaws. Notably, Simon is openly "defeated," while Chad tries to find solace as a Bears fan despite their overall betting misfortunes.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Wild Card Betting Recap: A Weekend to Forget

• Both hosts acknowledge a disastrous 1-3 record going into the final contest pick (Steelers +3.5).
• “We were wrong on just about every total. We were wrong on just about every side.” — Chad (04:07)
• Insight: Wild Card chaos is real—unexpected variance, kicker mishaps, and officiating played key roles.

Rams vs Panthers – The Overlooked Underdog

• Rams (-10.5) was a "dead bet." Simon warned Chad against it, noting that big favorites rarely cover massive playoff spreads.
• Referee Influence: Simon questions officiating, particularly a questionable Panthers 4th down PI that turned momentum.
  — “This game really was the ref.” – Simon (10:21)
• Bryce Young earns surprising praise. “In the biggest moment, which is the playoffs, he showed up big, made some big time throws.” – Simon (11:08)
• Matthew Stafford: “Stafford, incredible last two minute drive, you know, gets them to 34 points on the road in a playoff game.” – Simon (11:34)

Packers vs Bears – Historic Collapse & a Star is Born

• Green Bay (-2.5) led comfortably before a stunning 4th quarter Bears comeback behind rookie QB Caleb Williams.
• Key stat: “Caleb scored 25 points in the fourth quarter... The kicker for Green Bay... you miss two field goals, an extra point... it just totally shifted everything.” – Simon (15:37)
• Chad’s Bears fandom collides with betting interests: “I was willing to sacrifice the Bears because Indiana had me so happy. Fate intervened, Simon.” – Chad (14:07)
• Jumpman Throw: Caleb Williams’ iconic 4th & 8 pass likened to Michael Jordan’s Jumpman logo.
  — “It’s the exact silhouette of the Jumpman logo.” – Chad (19:29)
• Ben Johnson: “He’s a crazy person, but that’s exactly the man you want running that Bears team.” – Simon (21:34)

Niners vs Eagles – Drops, Coaching, and Identity

• The under (44.5) barely hits—but not without late drama.
• Philly’s collapse: “A.J. brown right now in Philadelphia is known by A.J. clown. He is hated right now in the city.” – Simon (22:54)
• Eagles’ offense and coaching draw scathing reviews. “To act like he did all season and then go out there and drop three passes like that... shame on you A.J. Clown.” – Simon (45:47)
• Key stat: “Four drops on third down against the 49ers... most since they began tracking in 2006.” – Simon (27:10)
• “Teams are who they are. You got to take that into account when we’re doing the handicap.” – Chad (26:24)

Chargers vs Patriots – Herbert's Postseason Struggles

• Chargers (+3.5) lose ugly to New England. Herbert’s performance under heavy scrutiny.
• “He just looked totally lost and flustered against a Patriots defense.” – Simon (38:20)
• “I'll back Herbert now. No problem in the regular season, but playoffs, it's got to be right up there on our big board for the rest of his career.” – Simon (38:40)

Bills vs Jaguars – Allen's Heroics & Dumb Luck

• Bills eke out a win despite coaching blunders and mistakes.
• “Josh Allen, he’s why we call him Superman. He’s the best.” – Simon (42:11)
• “Sean McDermott... his coaching is just so bad. I have tons of questions about this team, but I keep saying... This is what we get for doubting Josh Allen.” – Simon (43:33)

Special Teams & Coaching as Deciding Factors

• Playoff games saw a disproportionate impact from kickers and in-game decisions across the board.
• “If you don’t have the right special teams, it don’t matter.” – Simon (06:39)
• Coaching gaffes in clock management and over-aggressiveness were a common thread.

Betting Lessons & Trends

• Dogs and Unders: “Dogs 4 and 1, unders were 3 and 2 heading into tonight’s game... We overthink it like we always do.” – Simon (06:39)
• “Wild card unders have hit at a 60% clip since 2010. All games were outdoors.” – Chad (07:56)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Defeat & Vibe

• “This is gonna be a big Chad show... This is a bad show. I’m a defeated man.” – Simon (04:14)

On The Rams Collapse

• “Rams just played with their food. It’s what they’ve done... their Achilles heel. Still, Matthew Stafford snatched their hearts.” – Chad (12:14)

On Bears’ Epic Win

• “If it’s as good as it gets, that sucks. But if I was a Bears fan... this is just the beginning of the next five to ten year run.” – Simon (15:59)

On Eagles' Failures

• “Quitting on routes, those drops, all of it. You’re just like, oh, my God, I can’t believe how bad he was.” – Simon (23:03)

On Coaching

• “Nothing’s changed... Nick was able to hire his best friend as the offensive coordinator and it was a train wreck.” – Simon (25:54)
• “Sean McDermott... The final two minutes, his coaching is just so bad.” – Simon (43:32)

Shame Segment

• “Shame, shame, shame on us... We out thunk and out talked and outmaneuvered ourselves into losses.” – Chad (45:28)
• “Shame on you A.J. clown.” – Simon (45:47)

Winner & Hero of the Week

• “The winner of the week has to be Caleb Williams... He preached it. He walked it. He did it.” – Chad (46:42)
• “[No hero for our bets], we barely won any.” – Chad (47:09)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Brutal betting recap & mood: 03:04–06:39
• Rams-Panthers breakdown: 07:41–12:14
• Packers-Bears, the comeback: 12:14–19:29
• Caleb Williams Jumpman throw: 19:29
• Niners-Eagles, Philly’s unraveling: 21:47–27:58
• Chargers-Patriots, Herbert’s postseason issues: 36:11–39:11
• Bills-Jags, Allen and McDermott: 40:31–44:43
• Shame: what went wrong: 45:28–46:42
• Winner/Hero of the Week: 46:42–47:19

Tone & Language

• Candid, self-deprecating, and laced with both betting expertise and humor
• Reflective and raw, especially on personal defeats and city fandoms
• Frequent insider wisdom, gallows humor, and sharp/square betting culture references

Final Thoughts & Looking Ahead

• Simon still stands by Steelers +3.5 as the last hope for weekend betting redemption (48:10).
• The public went 5-0 against the contest this weekend—contrary to sharp expectations.
• Chad and Simon will be back soon with a divisional round preview, hoping for better results—and fewer brutal "bad beats."

Summary Table of Bets & Results (for quick reference)

| Pick | Result | Commentary | |-------------------------------|----------|---------------------------------------------------------| | Rams -10.5 | Loss | “Bad bet… Didn’t deserve to cover.” – Simon (11:00) | | Packers -2.5 | Loss | Collapse despite lead—stunning Bears comeback | | Niners-Eagles Under 44.5 | Win | Barely got there, thanks to dropped passes | | Chargers +3.5 | Loss | Herbert struggles, offense falters | | Steelers +3.5 | TBD | Last hope for contest |

This episode is an honest, in-depth debrief—a must-listen for bettors and fans alike who want real talk on what went wrong, and how chaos (plus classic playoff variance) can humble even the sharpest strategies.