Sharp or Square - Conference Championship NFL Playoffs Bets: Patriots-Broncos & Rams-Seahawks

Date: January 22, 2026
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Podcast: Sharp or Square (iHeartPodcasts & The Volume)

Episode Overview

This special Conference Championship episode sees hosts Chad and Simon diving deep into the two NFL playoff games: Patriots vs. Broncos and Rams vs. Seahawks. They dissect the betting markets for sides, totals, and key props, and vigorously debate where the sharp (professional) and square (public) money is going. The duo also reflects on recent dramatic NFL coaching changes, the impact of coaching hires on betting, and legislative changes impacting sports betting. Each host offers actionable picks, insights, and strategy advice, all in their signature conversational, stats-heavy style.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Coaching Carousel & Its Impact on Futures Markets

(Timestamps: 02:21–08:38)

• Unprecedented Coach Movement: Simon notes the “craziest” offseason for coaching changes in years—big names like McDermott, Tomlin, and Harbaugh are out, and the impact is seeping into betting markets.
• Coordinators Gaining Power: Discusses how top coordinators (Ben Johnson, Brian Flores) are now refusing head coach roles unless conditions are right, prioritizing fit and quality of opportunity over simple promotion.
• Impact on Futures: They reminisce about being more bullish on Patriots/Bears futures in 2025 due to strong coaching hires, showing that sharp bettors weigh coaching changes heavily for long-term bets.

“It’s interesting to me that there are coaches who are not jumping at the first chance just because it’s a head coaching job…they’re trying to control their destiny.” —Chad Millman (05:28)

• Toxic Leadership Deterring Talent: They highlight how the Bills, Browns, Cardinals are unattractive. Ownership/front office blunders during recent press conferences and backroom skirmishes harm team appeal for top coaching candidates.
• Chad’s Analogy: Comparing NFL GMs to people “easily managing up and throwing underlings under the bus” (07:35), reinforcing the importance of leadership when betting futures.

2. Sharp Calls: Where Is the Pro Money?

(Timestamps: 09:36–11:59)

Patriots at Broncos:

• Broncos Are the Sharp Play:
  The pro money loaded up heavy on Denver at +5.5. The narrative: “the move to Broncos -4.5 is too wild for a backup QB; true line should be 2.5.”
• Over Also Getting Hit:
  Pros loved the Over at 40.5, anticipating that cold, non-blizzard conditions would allow for more scoring, and both defenses could force turnovers.

“For big money, real money, professional money, it is very heavily Denver which is making me a little nervous.” —Simon Hunter (10:12)

Rams at Seahawks:

• Market Split:
  The Rams are getting pro love at +2.5, especially under three; public is backing Seattle. Both the total and sides are split—pros that lean Seattle also lean Under, Rams backers expect points.

3. Patriots at Broncos: Deep Dive & Bet Angles

(Timestamps: 13:45–26:31)

• Line Movement:
  Sharps hit Denver at +5.5; Chad is still comfortable betting them at +4.5 as long as it stays above the key number of 4.
• QB Narrative:
  The drop-off from starter Bo Nix to backup Jarrett Stidham was, per Simon, “not as dramatic as the point spread”; Sean Payton’s career success with backup QBs (17–5 ATS). Square money overreacted to the change.
• Stidham’s Chemistry:
  Simon recommends Troy Franklin any-time TD props based on Franklin’s chemistry with Stidham from practice and preseason sequence—insider detail that “he stays after practice with Stidham and runs routes.”
• Injury Angles:
  Dobbins’ return for Denver matters for short-yardage and ball control. Patriots will likely force the game into Stidham’s hands due to their strong run D.
• Prop Bets Discussed:
  Drake Maye passing TDs (over/under 1.5), Stidham interceptions (over/under 0.5); both hosts like Stidham to throw a pick, and Chad is confident in “Stidham over 31.5 pass attempts” prop.

“I am leaning a little bit into Franklin here and I saw Dobbins possibly can come back here, which is a huge deal…They’re getting healthy at the right time.” —Simon (16:01)

Historical & Situational Angles:

• OT Fatigue Fade:
  Teams coming off OT playoff games are just 6–13 SU (since 2002), 1–4 ATS since 2015 (losing by 15 PPG), suggesting Patriots have “the spot” against them.
• Denver Home Edge:
  Patriots are 0–4 SU and ATS all-time in Denver playoff games. Thin air "does get to you eventually” (21:18).
• Super Bowl Futures:
  Chad bet Broncos to win the Super Bowl at 12–1 (“value if you’re in the title game at double digits”).

4. Rams at Seahawks: Sharp Trap or Value?

(Timestamps: 29:27–41:13)

• Public vs. Pros:
  The number is tight, and the game might come down to which situational angle you value most: Rams are 3rd straight road game, rest disadvantaged, coming off OT; Seattle is healthier and rested from an early game.
• Situational “Spot” is Critical:
  Simon: “If you’re betting the Rams, you’re betting on a 25% chance of winning…It’s an impossibly brutal spot.” (40:32)

“The Rams are in an impossible spot. If you continually bet this spot, you’re the sucker.” —Simon (40:45)

• Injury & Fatigue Concerns:
  Rams have nagging injuries (notably, Sam Darnold’s limited practice) and a battered O-line. “It’s all about the rest.”
• Matchup Nuances:
  Rams have dominated previous meetings and have fared better vs. Darnold historically, but Seattle’s D-line size and ability to generate pressure up the middle is major trouble for Stafford/Darnold.
• Key Stat:
  Since the playoff format shift, wild card teams rarely advance from this spot.
• Final Call:
  If line moves to +3, pros “will be all over the Rams.” For now, “blindly betting the situation means Denver and Seattle are the sharp sides.”

5. Betting Strategies & Picks – The Sharper Square Segment

(Timestamps: 48:45–51:14)

Best Bets:

• Simon’s Biggest Bet:
  Denver Broncos +4.5 (and took Super Bowl futures), light Seahawks moneyline/2.5.
• Chad’s Strongest Angle:
  Jared Stidham over 31.5 pass attempts — “Sean Payton will put the ball in his hands” (49:56).
• Props & Parlays:
  Both like Troy Franklin anytime TD for Denver (50:14–51:09).
• Strategy Advices:
  If line moves to +3, recommend pouncing on Rams. Otherwise, lean Seahawks (rest advantage), or play safer with Seahawks moneyline due to expected close margin.

6. Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Coordinators Getting Paid:

  “The coordinator pay scale is just getting bigger and bigger. I mean, I can't imagine if you're Cleveland or Arizona, like who do you find to come there? No one with any type of pull is going to take those jobs and those tough divisions.” —Simon (05:53)

• On Betting Community Drama:

  “It would literally be me and you...I would just come in and say, 'Well, Chad, I didn't like that pick. That was your pick…' just straight bickering.” —Simon (08:03)

• On Sean Payton’s Backup QB Effectiveness:

  “Backup quarterbacks in his career, 17 and 5. He is not afraid to scheme with backup quarterbacks. He's not afraid to let loose with backup quarterbacks.” —Chad (18:55)

• On Fatigue & Playoff Spot Betting:

  “This is their third straight road game…I give you those numbers…if you’re the underdog, 9 and 28 straight up. So, 24% historically, it’s…almost impossible.” —Simon (40:32)

• On Picking Sides in Tight Games:

  “Such an interesting game. I don't know what we're going to do in the contest at this point. I think it's going to be a late Sunday selection.” —Chad (42:32)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Coaching Carousel: 02:21–08:38
• Sharp Calls (Market Overview): 09:36–11:59
• Patriots-Broncos Betting Deep Dive: 13:45–26:31
• Props & Historical Angles: 26:31–29:27
• Rams-Seahawks Handicapping & Angles: 29:27–41:13
• Spot vs. Matchup—What Matters More? 40:45–42:32
• Biggest Bets & Sharper Square Picks: 48:45–51:14

Actionable Betting Takeaways

• Broncos (+4.5 or better) is a consensus sharp play. Both hosts agree, even as late money is heavy. Value on SB futures, no need to bet moneyline.
• Troy Franklin anytime TD prop has insider logic behind it (chemistry with Stidham).
• Props: Lean Stidham over 31.5 pass attempts; Stidham over 0.5 INTs; monitor Dobbins/RB status for Denver.
• Rams-Seahawks: Don’t weigh matchup over situation — rest, travel, and game sequence heavily favor Seattle. If spread touches +3, Rams become auto-bet for many pros.
• If betting big, Seattle moneyline better than taking -2.5 due to recent one- or two-point game margins between these teams.
• In contest formats, Denver is the “brass balls” side, Seattle is the “wise guy spot” side.

For Next Show

• Official contest picks, brass balls bet of the week, and live weather/prop updates will be announced Sunday morning.

Summary crafted to reflect original dialogue, highlight granular betting insights, and serve NFL fans or bettors looking for sharp edge pre-kickoff.