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Sharp Conference Championship NFL Playoffs Bets: Patriots-Broncos & Rams-Seahawks
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This is an iHeart podcast.
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Guaranteed Human new year.
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Sin intercambio tados. Vamos estrenar iPhone.
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Hi, Termino concienta tu familia converizon y vuatro. Iph.
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Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock bet. We are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the show that makes the square sharper, makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Milton. I am joined as always by my co host, my companion, my bff, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
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A
Chad. How we doing, dude?
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B
I'm a champion. So for the past, you know, 72 hours, I've pretty much just been watching every video, reading every tweet, looking at every Instagram post. Last night at dinner, my wife and I went out and we were talking about the game and the Indiana game. And she goes, I feel like you think you were on the field and you won the game. I'm like, I committed 36 years of my life to this team. I'm going to enjoy it, I'm going to absorb it, I'm going to live it. I deserve it. My. But my, my son asked me like, what did I talk about like all day? My son likes to ask, like, what'd you guys talk about? What'd he say? What'd he say? He likes to get in the, into the weeds on the details. And he said, what were you talking about with Matt and Andy on, on Monday? I'm like, we talked about Indiana at the game. We talked about Indiana at halftime. We talked about India. All we did was talk about, are we going to win this game? We're winning this game. Will we win this game? Are we going to be champions? That's it.
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A
I don't know you. I've been enjoying the, the old Fernando Mendoza clips, right? Like they're posting clips of him at Cal. Him in high school. Oh, yeah.
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B
Back to all that clip at Cal where the. He got knocked out by a Miami player and it's the same player he ran over on the way to the end zone.
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Yeah. And it's just been great, like, like again, a lot of bad things about the Internet, but there are some great things and this has been one of them. Where it's like, you know these people are pulling up videos that. Why would you ever see his high school recruiting video? Right? Or him talking about being a diehard Miami Canes fan and yeah, just to watching him just grow into a man. Right? Like just. I think he talked this year he put on 20 extra pounds strength conditioning coach and I mean you saw that show up in that run. So yeah, it's, it's been fun. But just like you, I mean it's non stop football. The, the coaching stuff right now as a professional. Professional and better. It's probably been the craziest stuff where. Not that it's like, okay, I'm betting futures based off these coaches but we talked last year we were way more confident betting the Patriots and the Bears futures because we like their head coaching hires. And it's been really fun hearing guys different opinions and you know, especially even like locally just people talking about how the Eagles can't go to OC right now offensive coordinating and McDaniels picked the Chargers over Philly.
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Chargers over a head coaching chap.
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Again. When you break it down though, and it's like you want, do you want to go to Cleveland where they don't know who the quarterback is or do you want to go to la, live in Manhattan beach, coach for three, four hours and head back to your pretty posh life at a Manhattan Beach. I get why he made that choice, but yeah, it's. I mean every year there's a lot of coaching changes. This year just feels so unique in the sense that you know the, the big names. Right. Like the fact that Sean McDermott was fired, Tomlin was fired, Hobo was fired. Yeah. For, for just as a better. I thought it would just be all conference championship conversation this week and it's been a lot of that, but a lot of coach talk. It just, it's been really interesting just how everyone's just so enamored with all these coaching hires. So yeah, I honestly can't get enough of it. And again, we're not even done yet. All these teams are still have so many openings. It's. It's pretty well timed.
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Yeah. It's interesting to me that a coach like Brian Flores who was interviewing with the Steelers decided to stay with Minnesota.
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Mike McDaniel who was in, he didn't decide that. He just signed. He did a deal that if he doesn't become a head coach anywhere, which again is pretty wild, he'll. We'll go back to the vikings as their DC even though apparently some other teams are offering them 5 million more. So you must really love that Vikings organization. They basically signed a deal that if I do not get hired by the Steelers or whoever else is head coach, I'm coming back to you no matter what. Which, yeah, I think you're alluding to. That's, that's a huge deal.
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Like he's, that's a huge deal. Mike McDaniel deciding, yeah, I don't want to go coach in Cleveland like Ben Johnson.
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I don't want to go to Philly either. There's too much drama in Philly.
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Ben Johnson did this too where he was pretty close to taking a head coaching job and then decided it's not the right spot. Right. And he waited for the right.
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Didn't they give him an insane amount of money?
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Well, I don't know. But like at the end of the day he decided not to take it. And it's interesting to me that there are coaches who are not jumping at the first chance just because it's a head coaching job. You know what I mean? They're deciding, all right, I'm going to take the best opportunity. That's interesting to me like that they're trying to control their destiny a little bit more. And sure, the coordinator payment pay scale is just getting bigger and bigger.
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I mean I can't imagine if you're Cleveland or Arizona, like who, who do you find to come there? Now you're going have to find the right, the QB coach on some team on Jacksonville or something to come. It's just no one with any type of pool is going to take those, those jobs and those tough divisions.
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It's just not worth it. You can see three years you're out. Jonathan Gannon had Kyler Murray. He had a guy who's supposed to be pretty good. Didn't work right. I wonder if I'm John Harbaugh, did I pull the trigger too soon on the Giants? Because wouldn't John Harbaugh love to go coach the Buffalo Bills right now?
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Yeah.
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You know, any candidate if they, they had known they could go get Josh Allen. I don't know why Mike Tomlin isn't jumping off the couch to convince the Steelers to end the Bills, to make a deal to get him to be the coach there. That is an ideal situation for him.
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Well, I don't know if you saw Matt Mitchell going through it on our social medias, but I think right now the, the bill is as desirable as the job might be. We talk all the time, buddy. It's not. It starts at the top and that.
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Owner, that was a weird press conference.
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Yeah. As much as we love, we've enjoyed these owner interviews, that man took a blowtorch to about six, seven years of really good grace that a lot of fans have for that builds an organization. Organization that felt like they've been doing it right these last couple years. And yeah, like I, like you said, it'll be interesting what coach is going to end up there where it just seems like a lot of turmoil, but I think he'll cool off. Like you said, that Josh Allen piece, that's the enticing piece. But to know you have a psychopath owner and potentially a president of your football operations that's willing to throw you under the bus at a moment's notice. Not. Not the best situation.
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B
Not a great look for GMs this year between Andrew Berry in Cleveland, being in Buffalo, Joe Shine in New York. All of them came out looking like to any executive in the wider world, like kind of easily do to manage up and then threw the underlings under the bus and came out on the other side looking pretty good to management. You know what I mean?
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Yeah. It honestly would literally be me and you doing a picture on every Monday. I would just come in and say, well, Chad, I didn't like that pick. That was your pick. And then you being like, well, no, no, I didn't like that one. That was your pick. And I mean, that's what it felt like. It was just straight bickering. It's like, no, I'm not the one that screwed this up. Where it's like, dude, you got to own your mistakes and keep it moving. But my God, that was. I just have never seen a team throw their number one pick or first round pick under the bus like that. And we'll see what Keon Coleman wants to do. But it's. It's definitely an awkward situation.
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B
Simon, you and I are BFFs. We don't throw each other under the bus sometimes. We've been through it. We've been through. We've been through the battles. We've been through the battles. We stayed loyal to each other. You, me, and Matt Mitchell, we came out on the other side, right? Is that what happened? This is our Thursday conference championship preview episode. We're going to narrow down the options, find the five picks we can agree on in the week. Getting harder. Only two games. We're going to int. Way closer. Subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube. Apple Pods, Spotify. Let's get this thing going. Every week we're going to give it our picks every week. Simon's fellow pro gamblers are going to give him an earful about those picks. We had a lot of debate about these two games on Tuesday. It's time to summarize those opinions. Special Championship weekend edition of Sharp Calls.
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I have to answer this phone.
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B
All right.
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Rain rain telephone ring Somebody said baby, what you doing? Yeah, well I'll start with the game that the pros aren't too split on. Right. I, I gave away a little bit of the hand on Tuesday which I love this Denver Broncos team and I what I thought was going to happen did happen. Right. You if you're lucky enough to get the six, congrats here. Legally, I don't think we ever got above the five and a half and that that number is totally gone. Like I'm looking right now, every, every book is basically four and a half. There's a couple still holding that five. But you just knew the pros are going to come in on this side. And yeah for professionals I've talked to I know some guys right to have positions on the Patriots and sure they, they took early position to have great numbers. But for big money, real money, professional money, it is very heavily Denver which is making me a little nervous. But we'll get more into that one.
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And we will discuss some of this.
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Yeah, the over obviously professionals came in very heavy on this Denver over it was 40 and a half and we talked about it. I think the most of them have the same reason as I do. Right. If this blizzard of 2026 doesn't touch Colorado and it's just high 20s sunny, two quarterbacks that could potentially turn the ball over a lot. It should move up and it has. Right. It's up to 42 and a half. So nice to see I wasn't totally wrong on my early feelings about this over. I just I wish I wasn't as gunshot. I wish I just leaned into it right away on Tuesday's show. And yeah for the LA Seahawks game this one is very split. It's, it's really split in the sense about what number can you get here. Right. I think a lot of pros like I talked about there was a lot of resistance at the 3. I'm still seeing pros take la at the 2 and a half. So it's, it's really interesting where it's very, very public. Obviously the Seahawks we knew it was going to be right. This is a ramp scene that most people have left for dead. But I, I am just shocked to see how much professional love there is for the Rams, so that's going to be a really fun back and forth as well. And another tool that's pretty split. Most pros I've talked to though, they lean towards the under. Once again, these are the same pros that like Seattle, so it makes sense. If you like Seattle, you're going to like the the under. And if you really do like the Rams, why would you not expect it to be a shootout? Right? That's, that's the type of game you're hoping for for back of the Rams. So yeah, for, for the sharp calls this week. It's, it's been a lot of debate about the sides and the totals, but not so much in that Denver Patriots game that feels very one sided professionally.
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B
I, I love it. We're going to have a good conversation because that Ram Seahawks game I we talked about a little before we came on the air, so I'm still a little bit vexed. All right, so we'll be back to our normal Sunday routine pregame show in the morning post game show after the Rams Seahawks game. These will be our last Sunday shows of the season. No more long, frightening, dreadful walk up the third floor steps for me. We're going to do our brass balls bet of the week on Sunday. We still weren't quite decided on where we wanted to land and needed a little more intel before we wanted to make that pick want to be as confident as possible. So we'll do that on Sunday. All right. Like I said. Subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube. Subscribe and like this video, you can also subscribe to Sharper Square and Apple Pod, Spotify etc. Our contest players reminder. We include sides and totals for all the games plus some props this week. All right. New England at Denver. The line has come down. It was five and a half. It's now four and a half. The total is 42 and a half. It's gone up in the 48 hours since you made this game, Simon says. Look, you said it on Tuesday. This is all I've seen for 48 hours. Every person I talk to, every person I respect in the industry, they have hammered the Broncos at five and a half and they felt like the line move in the Broncos direction from a professional point of view was just too big. Like they would have had this game. Broncos two, two and a half. We talked about this on Tuesday. Moving it eight points is just too much for a quarterback like Bo Nix who like averaged 6.4 yards per attempt and insurance. Stidham, you have A guy who has been from statistically a league average starter, not backup league average starter when you look at his epa. So, Simon, I think we're both really comfortable with the Broncos at five and a half. I'm still comfortable at four and a half. Like, you know, four is the key number here. It's the line of demarcation for me. So I'm still comfortable with the Broncos here.
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Yeah, I'm just like you. I love it. And like you, I'm also. It's never ending amount of positive Denver picks and now I hate it. Yeah, exactly. That's what's making me a little nervous where it's like, it feels a little bit like pros are talking down the general public and especially people that watch a lot of game film where it's like, oh, they don't know. They don't know. I've watched these guys three games. I've. Preseason games. And I mean, it might have been Jordan Palmer. It was, it was, it was someone that coaches up quarterbacks who basically went on. I don't know if it was Dan Patrick or Rich Eisenhower. He went on one of those shows and basically said, on any given day, cinema is just as good as Drake May. And.
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Oh, Jesus.
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Right. And it's like, it's. People are going too far one way. But my favorite thing about football, it is in every given Sunday, can for one day, can he outplay Drake May, who's in a hostile environment on the road facing the number two scoring defensive football? Yes, like that. That is more realistic than saying he can outplay the potential MVP of the NFL this season. So, yeah, the back and forth has been a little tough to digest. You know, the numbers like I talked about. I don't want to poo poo the Patriots. I didn't want to give them respect. I think I talked about a little bit that Drake May is 8. No, straight up this season, 7:1 against the spread on the road. He's been the best road quarterback. So as much as you want to say he struggled with adversity or he will in the, in this game because he's on the road. I mean, yeah, it's a soft schedule, but he showed up in those games. Right. It's not cakewalk that went on the road, let alone in Buffalo, which is what he did. You know, I've been impressed by what Drake's done, the road, but this is a total different beast. Like the playoffs on the road. Not even that. A playoff on the road against a team that is rallying around an Injured quarterback. And that's what's been so oppressive with Denver is even Bo Nicks talking about his like farewell or whatever. His, his report after he got hurt, I think he put on Instagram or something, just basically talked about how the whole team is round around Stedham and like it's like his good friend and he believes in him and all this stuff. It just seems like now that's giving me the Nick Foles vibes. It kind of is, right? It's like a team that's like, well, no one's counting us, counting on us anymore. Everyone's going against us. And you know, it's. If you're New England as good as you are, it's fair for us to have questions about your team, right? It is fair to question that you've had an easy schedule. It's fair to question that you face two quarterbacks that have totally melted in the playoffs. And if Stenham can just play within the Sean Payton offense, I do think he could succeed. And you know, looking at their injury report, Chad, they're going to have Franklin back. They're going to have all these receivers back. And you could say, well, who cares about Franklin? This is a guy that he had a ton of work, not only in the preseason but in a lot of practice. He was a guy that played a lot of second team reps, which to me is a big deal. And when you break it down, you go through their roster. Franklin was number two in their team in touchdowns. He was Sutton at seven. Franklin had six. So again it's to shove my hand a little bit on props. You have to bet a Franklin touchdown anytime prop, like they've moved it down a little bit. It did open a Plus 350. It's come down a little bit. I think most people have what I have, which is a ton of info that he's worked a lot with Franklin these last two years. It's been a guy that he stays after practice with him and Bo Nix and works on reps and running routes. That's a real thing. Those type of connections when the bullets start flying and he's starting to panic, he'll throw into coverage to a guy like Franklin some that he has a rapport with and trust with. So that was something that jumped out right away where it's like, okay, if me and Chad have to make some type of prop bet, I don't imagine I don't mind attacking Franklin's type of props of either receptions or his over receiving yards. He feels like he's Gonna be the forgotten man because we already know Chris Gonzalez is going to be on Sutton. They're gonna, I, I'm assuming they'll have Chris Gonzalez. Sutton, who's been, you know, he did have bad drops last week, but he has been their number one shiver this year, the Broncos, no doubt about it. So I, I am leaning a little bit into Franklin here and I saw Dobbins possibly can come back here, which is a huge deal. Yeah, that run game. So, you know, the injuries, it's brutal about Knicks, the rest of their team for Denver seems like it's getting healthy at the right time. And you know, the more numbers I dive into defensively, I think they're gonna be able to give Drake May some real problems. So, yeah, like I, I keep saying, I'm highly confident in you, but just like highly confident in Denver, but just like you, it feels like every pro I know, everyone I've talked to.
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B
Yeah, it's becoming too much. It's like there was the shock of, you know, the news the other day and excuse me, and everyone sort of letting it settle to your credit. You were on it right away on Tuesday, as soon as we got off the show. I bet it at Hard Rock bet because I was still in Florida. Better as big as I could and as my, as my system would allow, meaning my internal gut system, what my stomach can handle. But don't forget this Patriots defense, they're kind of awesome against the run. So it doesn't really matter if Dobbins is back. This is going to be a Jarrett Stidham game. Like he is going to have to throw the ball so many times. Sean Payton, backup quarterbacks in his career, 17 and 5. He is not afraid to scheme with backup quarterbacks. He's not afraid to let loose with backup quarterbacks. And to your point, to all of the analysts point, the drop off from Bonix to Stidham is not as dramatic as the point spread is allowing. I don't think we're betting Moneyline on the Broncos here. I did take a taste of the Broncos to win the super bowl because why not? When all of a sudden there's a team in the title game for the weekend and they're 11 to 1, 12 to 1, 13 to 1. That's just a rarity. You might as well take a flyer. But also because their defense is so elite and Drake May has been so bad against the rush, against the pass rush the past few weeks, fumbled six times, 10 sacks in the past two weeks, been dismal against pressure. The Patriots overall have been worse stopping pressure since Will Campbell came back from the injury. How many times have we seen on TV the analyst pointing out Will Campbell just getting bull rushed by guys into Drake Mays face and disrupting his ability to step in the up in the pocket. So it's going to be an interesting game. It's a great matchup defensively for the Broncos and you know they're going to be amped and feel like they have to do more because of the Bonix injury.
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A
Yeah, poor Will Campbell who's not fully healthy and you know, comes back from an injury and then has to go against two really good defensive lines. And like you said, it doesn't get any much easier here. And they honestly haven't been helping them like a lot of times because they like to pass it to the running backs out of the back. They don't ship with them like they're literally leaving on one on one against guys who, you know, even last week, like Will Anderson just had his way with him like you said. And you know, for me, I know it might not mean much to you as much it means to me, but Dobbins to me is a big deal just because he was so important for them this season and like anytime they needed that third and three, third and four, they would run it where when he got out, Sean Payton basically never took out of Bo Nix's hands on those type of place. Yeah, he would just say, well, I'd rather live and die with Bo Nix here than Harvey rookie getting the carry here who again, he does trust. We've seen him lean into him here down the stretch. But you know, Dobbins, he, he played 10 games for him. He still led the team in rushing by almost 200 yards even though he's been out since week 10. So he was really important for them early in the season. And you know, before we, we, we move off this one, I just want to give it out one more time. Like Chad said, I, I wouldn't do the money line like I, I did give out the super bowl future just because that's where the value is. And the books have followed right. You could have got 13, 1, 14, 1. The best I can see now is 12 to 1 tops. I'm seeing a lot of 11 to ones, 10 to 1. So the books have reacted right. The money has come in on that, that future like Chad said on Denver to make the Super Bowl. But this overtime stat, I'll give it out one more time, Chad, because it is, it just isn't it's just what we talk about, right? The wear and tear on these guys bodies in the playoffs. In the history of the playoffs I should say or since 2002 teams to play in overtime and then have a game obviously the next week in the playoffs are just six and 13 straight up since 2015 they are one of four against the spread losing by 15 points per game.05 straight up. So you know, not, not the best for the Broncos but at least for them is they have the rest, right. They have extended rest because they play on the Saturday. So hopefully it won't affect them as much as the next thing. We're about to talk about this Rams team but yeah, I, I, I'm like you. I did not bet the Denver's money line. I just simply bet super bowl futures. And it's interesting too the look ahead lines. They were nine and a half eight so the Seahawks were nine and a half favorites and I believe the Rams were eight and a half favorites over the Denver Broncos. Both those lines as well have come down. So I know it's people won't get it. That why professionals are just hammering this Denver team. It's just you're always looking for these opportunities of teams to win Super Bowls, let alone not the quarterback. And we've had a, we've, not that we haven't had one in a while but the last one I can really think of is Denver with Peyton Manning and this feels a lot like it. Right? Like that Patriots team with Brady, they might have been a three point favorite having in Denver because no one believed in Peyton Manning. Right. And I know he was a nude along the time but he threw for two touchdowns in that game. Like they, they won that game with just great dominant defense. I think it's a little bit of that here. So Patriots historically have never won in Denver in the playoffs in the career. They're 0 and 4 straight up. 0 and 4 against the spread. And you think about all those great Brady teams, whatever it was that was is he just had the bad mojo a mile high and we talk all the time. That thin air, it does get to you eventually, right? And you know Denver, you know they were up 10 points at half against the Bills. But in the second half you did see when Bo Nicks was scrambling the, the Bills guys were sucking wind. Like that's, that's a real thing. So I'm interested how this game goes in the sense that if it is a Dobbins game where you can lean on the run the second half they can wear out this Patriots defense, I do think that's a real thing this Broncos team. So yeah, I hope everyone grabbed it. If you haven't grabbed the numbering, the best you can get is four and a half. Still don't mind that number either. I told you. I really think this number should be in three and a half by kickoff. We'll see the pros do with this one. I could see them still coming in heavy. Maybe this does to stream. So you want to grab the Broncos now? I'd grab the five or four and a half. You still can.
- [25:30]
B
The one thing I would say about Dobbins, if it's not Dobbins, Jared Stidham might throw the ball 35 times because even in overtime Sean Payton only ran the ball 11 times. So we know what we're going to get from Sean Payton. He's going to put the ball in the quarterback's hand and he's going to let it, let it ride. If it's not someone that he really trusts in the backfield to carry the ball. One more thing about Sean Payton when he's a field goal dog or more in his career, 66% against the spread. So really it's like we are betting against that trend about overtime, but everything else is in the direction of betting on the Broncos.
- [26:14]
A
The total Sunday, I think. I don't know if Chad's with me on it, but I'm. I'm on the over. I'm just haven't bet it as heavy. Come Sunday morning, I'll have a much stronger opinion on brazier city weather. Right. And that's my issue. I like it. They could get an arctic blast. It could be 8 degrees at kickoff for all we know.
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B
So we want to know exactly the props that are going to be listed in this, in this game for the contest. Drake maybe passing touchdowns, one and a half. Jared Stidham interceptions, a half. So those will be the props that are available in the contest.
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A
I like, I like that Stenom over.
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B
Yeah, so do I. Yeah, a lot actually, man, we're.
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A
That's probably real chalky of us, but right away when you read that, it's like that.
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B
I know it seems weird.
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A
Real gracious prop to give to a guy making his first start in two years.
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B
Yeah. I'm putting on my glasses, Simon, because we got a new sponsor and I want to make sure I get it exactly right. We got the three biggest games of football remain and like I did down in Miami, it's going to be a memorable time this weekend. See my friends, my neighbors, have some laughs, have a few drinks, but the next morning I don't bounce back like I used to. And I'm a huge morning guy. You guys know I'm a huge morning guy. I love my mornings. If I have to choose between a great night or a great morning, I'm choosing morning. But that was before I tried Pre Alcohol zbiotics Pre Alcohol Probiotic Drink is the world's first genetically engineered probiotic invented by PhD scientists to tackle rough mornings after drinking. Here's how it works. When you drink alcohol gets convert it into a toxic byproduct in the gut. It's a buildup of this byproduct, not dehydration, that's to blame for rough days after drinking. Pre alcohol produces an enzyme to break down this byproduct. Just remember to make pre alcohol your first drink of the night. Drink responsibly and you'll feel your best tomorrow. Obviously I never get too crazy, but anytime I take pre alcohol before a night out with my drinks, I notice a real difference in the morning. I can wake up early. I get my workout in. I yell at Matt Mitchell. All true. I feel amazing now. It's become a part of my game plan before a night out. So enjoy the biggest games of the season without sacrificing an incredible next day. Start your night with Zbiotics Pre Alcohol and wake up clear headed, focused and feeling fresh. Go to zbiotics.com sharpersquare and you'll get 15% off your first order when you use Sharp or Square at checkout. Plus it's backed by a 100% money back guarantee so there's no risk. Subscriptions also available for maximum consistency. That's zbiotics.com sharpersquare and use the code Sharper Square at checkout for 15 off. I got it this morning. Did my workout feel great? Mornings are better when you feel better. Los Angeles Rams the Seattle Seahawks it's minus two and a half. The total is 46 and a half. I think you and I are split on this game. I haven't bet it yet, but I keep looking at the Rams and thinking the only thing that is in the way of the Rams is when Sean McVay makes bad decisions in the middle of the game. You look back at that Bears game and his game plan, which he's talked about was atrocious. Like it's mind boggling. He barely ran the heavy packages, which the Bears can't stop. He barely ran the ball, which the Bears couldn't stop the Only two times they really ran the ball. They scored touchdowns. I mentioned on Tuesday. Like, I worry about these moments in the game where McVeigh and Stafford seem to have these lapses. McVeigh makes some questionable decisions. Stafford can't find his rhythm. But in those two games against the Seahawks, including Week 16, they've been dominant. So I got a lot of stats, I got a lot of thoughts. I want to share them. But first, I want to give you a chance to respond because I, I want to make sure that my bias for the Rams is not moving me into a bad place.
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A
Yeah. And that's my, my fear with the Rams is it's a, it's a sharp trap. It just, everything about it is a sharp trap. Like, why wouldn't you take them as a dog? Especially when you just, like you said, if you just go Blindly off the two games this year, the Rams won their first meeting, 21 19, and didn't get the COVID which again, we, that haunted us because we had them the contest.
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B
Right.
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A
But I will say 21 to 7, the whole game, I write, they were.
- [31:21]
B
Winning that whole game. Like, that was a. They dominated that game. Absolutely dominated that game.
- [31:28]
A
And like, to me, this is the peak, though. This is like we talked about. This is peak Rams. This is Ramsay, right? When they're basically just on an insane run of being the best team in football. Right. And the next time they play, I think it was the 19th of December, they lose without Devonte Adams by 1.3837. Just an insane game over time.
- [31:52]
B
Gained 500 yards against the best defense and didn't have Devonte Adams or Kevin Dotson.
- [31:58]
A
But the Seahawks, they had their own injuries in that game. They lost two starting corners, and I think they lost the safety as well, but.
- [32:04]
B
And they didn't have a left tackle.
- [32:05]
A
Right. So it's like, I, I can't fault you for taking the points here, Chad, because all these games, margins. We just said it was one and two. Yeah, yeah. You're getting two and a half. Just blindly playing the numbers game. It's like, okay, if they play this game a thousand times, I agree with Chad. Like, if you're just 50, 50, it feels like more often than not, you will be right on the Ram side. That's what the number is kind of telling you here. But I, I, I'm gonna keep giving out the numbers, and I'm gonna try banging the people's heads. The NFL did an absolute job on this Rams team. Like, they've, they've already made it really hard for these wild card teams to make a run. That's why we haven't had one in a while. I think the last time we had was.
- [32:43]
B
I'm trying to think back, was it Kansas City? Were they a wild card team?
- [32:48]
A
No, because they always won their division. Right. The Chargers always.
- [32:50]
B
Right.
- [32:51]
A
But yeah, it's just again, it's been a long time. We've not had it since the changing of the one seed. Right. Since the two seed plays a seven seed and the one seed's only team with a buy, we've not had a wild card team make a run. Which again shows you more how important that bye week is where every year feels like the team that has a bye week usually makes a Super Bowl. I know it didn't happen last year, but it's been happening the years before and this Rams team are walking right into it. I just talked about they're in rest disadvantage. They played on a Sunday against a team that played on a Saturday. Okay, let's just look at the numbers blindly. Look at those numbers in the playoff history. Teams in those rest disadvantage or team they played an extra day and they're all. And they put an overtime game. They are one in eight straight up in this exact spot in the history of the playoffs. Three and six against the spread, which I guess is a little beneficial if you own the Rams the one outright. Rin, just. Can Chad remember the one outright win on a team with rest ass? Probably not. It was the Bears over The Saints in 06 07. So it's been a long time, like it's just been a very long time since the team has played an overtime game, had shorter rests, were able to go on the road against a higher seed and win a game. It's just, I mean, think about that. It's really impossible to stack against it. So can they find a way? Yeah, we just talked about like Stafford's been here before. This man has gone to Super Bowls. It's funny enough for me, if this, if they were a favorite here on the Rams, Chad, I'd be much more confident I'd give you those numbers as a favorite. Stafford, McVeigh, they win outright every time. Like when they're a favorite, they just always win in the playoffs. Stafford's never lost as a favorite. He's 5, 0 straight up in his career as a favorite. Best mark of any quarterback in NFL history. So it's telling you. It's telling by the books. Right? They opened this at one and a half the pros bet it Up. The resistance was felt at 3. The pros have hit this back on the other side. Right. There's tons of pros on the ramp side and they're still hitting the two and a half. But like I've said, there's some very heaven resistance from these pros on the Seahawks team. Like, there's a reason this number hasn't been bet down. I've been hoping. I've been hoping I could get under the two because like Chad, I. I do think this number could be very close, very close type of game. But when I just look at this matchup, you know, I would have a much more confidence if I had reports of Sam Darnold, no lingering issue, practice in full. This whole week he's been limited. They basically have him on. I think it was like a rep of like 10 to 20 throws, rest and then maybe another 10 to 20 throws in practice. It's like, okay, that's. That's not something I want to be hearing about a quarterback that. We expect this to be a game where there's points. Right. I just, more often than not, there should be points of this game. So, you know, like you, I'm having a tough time with this one with the. With the total on the side where I was definitely more confident on Tuesday with the Seahawks, I still am confident. I just. I can't believe this is a legit, lingering issue for Sam Darnold. Like, he threw 17 times in that game. You would think. Yeah, you know, that he didn't take any hits. Like he'd. He would be much better this week. And it's like, okay, that was a serious, serious injury. They're not letting out because to be limited to him in this week, that just shows what he's going through. So I totally get where you're coming from on the, on the LA side. And like I said, it's hard for me to go against them. I just. The more I look at this one, the more of I dive into. It's like, can they overcome the injuries through offensive line? Can they overcome the injuries to their secondary? This Rams team and you know, that Bears team, it felt like they were running it down their throats. Yeah, they really felt like they were moving in. They just felt like they were so much bigger than this Rams D line. And looking at the weight spread. See, it's the same exact thing here. Like this. This is a big old line for this the Seattle team. On the flip side, their D tackles talked about they have two all pros. I mean, on that D Tackle line. Like Stafford's going to have pressure up the middle, something he is not facing these. And that's kind of the Bears, right?
- [36:50]
B
That's what, that's what kills. Yeah, that's what kills Stafford. It's also what kills Darnold. Like, the Rams have not had a hard time getting pressure against Darnold, whether he's been with the Seahawks or with the Vikings. Don't forget, like in these last three games, he's thrown something like 11 interceptions against this Rams defense. It's the, it's the defense that has his number, literally. So it's tricky. It's just tricky.
- [37:20]
A
No, it's really hard. And I just, I'm trying to lean into the rest. The rest. Because I do think it's such an important key that the general public does overlook. They just think these guys now they're grown men, how bad beat up can they be? But it's like you're talking about Ramsey that has not had a bye week. They've been playing playoff games since week 10 or 11. Like every game they've had to win because the Seahawks team, they had to keep pace. They had no days off, they had no rest weeks. And the Seahawks, they, they did it. They got the onesie, they got the bye week and they got the easy competition last week. So like I said, if Sam Darnold was fully healthy, I'd be feeling the same way I feel about Denver. I'd be pounding the table with the Seahawks team. They're being undervalued by the market, but this number feels right by the market price. So it's like, I can't. Can't tell you. You're getting crazy value on the Seahawks team. You're really not. You might be getting half a point of value. That's nothing to go too crazy about.
- [38:13]
B
How many games Simon, have the Rams lost this season by more than three points?
- [38:21]
A
Only one I gotta think of is that Eagles fluke cover.
- [38:22]
B
We had Eagles fluke cover, the walk off block field goal. That's it. Yeah, we're not, we're not going to get a three in the contest. Like it's going to be two and a half. It's it. There's no doubt about it. So we're have a hard decision. But if this line gets to three at any point, I would highly recommend. People are trying to pay attention to this. This is how the wise guys do it. They're not resting, they're not like, oh, I'll check it again in an hour. Like they are figuring out ways to make sure if that line ever gets to three, they are taking the Rams here. It's kind of what I'm waiting on is I'm hoping to get the Rams at plus three, lean into those, those stats from the year they're playing, every game they're in it, even if they're losing it. But it's hard. I mean, the Rams going In that Week 16 game, they're the team everybody thought was going to the Super Bowl. And I don't know that they're still not that team since they lost that game in very flukish ways. You know, they were up in that game 30 to 14. 30 to 14. And then that's when Rashid Shahid ran that return back for a touchdown and that's when they had the fluky two point conversion and that's when they lost in overtime after they were up in overtime on another two point conversion. Like that game cost them the rest they needed. It cost them the playoff seating. It cost them the bye week. Now they're in Seattle playing for a national, for a NFC title on the road instead of at home.
- [39:58]
A
Yeah. And just once again, if you're just blindly betting this stuff, you should be blindly betting Denver and you should be blindly betting the Seahawks. And if you want to play it super safe, you can go with the money line. But it's like I'm saying it's, the Rams are an impossible spot. If you're betting the Rams, you are betting on a 25% chance of winning type of spot. That's how bad the spot is. And again, it's all about the rest. And this is their third straight road game. I give you those numbers. Third straight road game. If you're the underdog, 9 and 28 straight up. So 24% historically, it's.
- [40:32]
B
So here's the question.
- [40:33]
A
It's impossible. It's an impossibly brutal spot for the Rams. Can they do it? Of course. I'm just telling you, in your lifetime, the next 50 years, if you continually bet the Rams side, you're, you're, you're the sucker they're getting.
- [40:45]
B
Well, so that's, that's the answer to my question, which is as professionals, which do you give, give more credence to, the spot or the matchup? If all things are equal, if the, if this, if the matchup is equal, let's say the matchup is a little bit of an advantage for the Rams even, but the spot is horrendous. Which do you give more weight to.
- [41:13]
A
This time of Year, always the spot, just because I can't get over how important those numbers are, where it's just like we dive so much into all the matchups, all this other stuff. For end of the day, it's like, can these guys bodies hold up heading into the fourth quarter? Like you still have your legs underneath you because these guys again, Will devonte Adams still have his legs? Yeah, he sat out for three, four weeks with an injury. I'm talking about their left guard who has been playing now for 20 straight weeks. Like, I just think about all that he's gone through. Now he's going against the possibly the best D line in football who's rested. So that's what I mean. That's why keep trying to bring up these numbers because we're trying to find an edge here. I'm trying to find something to lean people to one side. And it's like. Like we're talking about here. The numbers are so close on the field, the matchup's so close. You have to go find other areas where. Where is the advantage for which team? The rest advantage is so heavily skewed to the Seahawks team. That's why I just. I keep beating people over the head with it, because it's like, I'm like, Chad, right away I thought I'd be over the Rams team. The more I've dove into it, it's like, man, this, this Seahawks team, the NFL is really just like the Patriots, right? The Patriots had easy schedule. The Seahawks, they earned that right to have an easy run in the playoffs, right? They earned that right for that one seed to have this rest advantage. And they're going to exploit it here, which to me is such a big deal.
- [42:33]
B
Such a. Such an interesting game. Such an interesting game. I don't know what we're going to do in the contest at this point. I think it's going to be a late Sunday selection. Simon, what's your biggest bet here this week?
- [42:45]
A
Pull up those pants and be a man. Yeah, Denver, no doubt. That's, that's, that's all my money so far has been into it. Denver was the Siberia of the NFL.
- [42:56]
B
The Broncos were so terrible that the.
- [42:58]
A
Team was exiled by the media and the players became prisoners in pro football's wasteland. You know, I've touched the Seahawks at two and a half, but I'm. I'm just trying to be patient, hoping the pros do come in and maybe I do get a one and a half and people are like, would. Wouldn't that scare you off? I Honestly wouldn't like the playoffs. It's so unique where there's only two games. It's like, you know, heavy respected money coming on one side. It's, it's not that scary in the sense that if I'm getting a better number, I believe in that side, I'll take it. And if anything, if you're betting huge, huge money here, I would just play safe like I did with the Patriots. I just took the money line last week with the Patriots. I do the same with the Seahawks here. Like, could this game land on the one? Yeah. I just told you they played two games this year and it's been a two, a two point and a one point victory by both teams. Like it's split between them. No one would be shocked if this number lands around the two. Right. We've talked all the time. Two has become such a sharp number and it lands on it all the time. So if you're betting actually heavy money here and you're, you're a little scared off by the spread, no issue doing the moneyless y'. All. So that's probably end up doing. And yeah, for, for the, you know, sides and totals for first halfs and different things like that, you know, I, I've leaned into a little bit of the Patriots first half just in case Stidham has a little bit of the jitters. And we've seen Drake May, you know, he has in the playoffs played much better in the second half but as a team the Patriots have played much better I think in the first half. So yeah, if you, if you don't want to take a side or total that we're giving out for full game. I don't hate taking Patriots first half but obviously to me that that's 1/10 of what I'm betting on. Denver full game.
- [44:33]
B
Let's do a quick, quick read from our friends at Hard Rock bet. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock bet. Florida's sportsbook. I've been using it a bunch these past couple of days. These playoffs have been crazy so far and the best way to cash in on those unexpected moments is with Hard Rock Bet. This weekend, two teams will punch their tickets to the big game, which means we've got two huge games perfect for building same game parlays. And if you miss kickoff, don't worry, Hard, Hard Rock Bed has live in game betting so you're never too late to get to the action, find a winner or grab the player prop you missed before kickoff. You can even Live bet between snaps in just a few easy taps. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a $5 bet. And if it hits, you get not only your winnings, but also an extra $150 in bonus bets between same game parlays. Live betting, a can't miss welcome offer and new promos dropping every day. Hard Rock Bet has you covered all postseason long. So download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit today. Payable in ponus Bet is not a cash offer. Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, ut, Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida, call 1-833-playwise in Indiana, if you or something you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9 with it gambling problem, call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia, it's time to do some sharp versus square.
- [46:17]
A
Well, before we get to that.
- [46:19]
B
Oh yeah, sure.
- [46:20]
A
Could I talk about the gambling loss tax bill that's going on right now?
- [46:25]
B
Of course.
- [46:26]
A
So unfortunately, if you haven't been keeping up for it, if we're gonna have to pay losses on our, we're gonna have to pay taxes on our losses upcoming year and they've been trying to pass bills now to go against it. And basically the 100 gambling loss tax deduction was blocked today, unfortunately by the House committee, which does suck. But it's, it's something that if you're into this stuff and like me, you care about because it does affect our livelihood. The blocked without the vote issue, it usually isn't policy, it's usually the process. So it's not totally dead here. The bill is not totally dead in my opinion. If both parties support it, maybe we could find another way. But it's, it's not something you could totally give up on yet. It did hit the floor today, right? It did not go through. But obviously it's something very important to me. Not just professional betters, poker players, everybody that's has a life in this world, the general public. I'm telling you, next year, come tax season, you are going to lose your mind. We have to pay 10% on your losses. So I just want to keep people up there. I know we had people ask about it, unfortunately didn't work out today, but something I will keep bringing up and keep monitoring as we go along here right now. I think the policy, they don't like the way it was written. Like I said, it's not dead people. It's just. It didn't go through today, obviously, and it didn't get. Didn't get shut down either. It's just, it's kind of in limbo.
- [47:46]
B
Look, there's a lot going on in the betting world. We try to be pretty focused during the season just because there's so much to talk about with who we're going to bet on. And, and we know that's, that's an exciting part of why people are coming to the show. But between what's happening with prediction markets and what's happening legally with laws like, like this, what's happening with increased scrutiny on game fixing, the scandals in college basketball, there's so much going on in this space that is fascinating. Obviously, I've been working on a book about this for a little, for about a year. So I have a lot of thoughts on this and a lot of details and a lot of research. And once we get to the off season, we're going to dig in on a lot of these, a lot of these other topics. Sharp versus Square. Simon, I feel like I know what you want and you've earned the right to go first and make the first selection.
- [48:46]
A
I do. But if you want to go head to head, I'm also open to that. If you want to go Rams, I go Seahawks. I'm open to it. People know I love Denver.
- [48:53]
B
Yeah. I'm just having such a hard time with the Rams. Like, I don't know if I'm committed to them yet.
- [48:58]
A
Like, I would you want to take Denver then? Then I take Seahawks. If you're feeling good about Denver.
- [49:03]
B
Okay, I'll take Denver. I mean, if you feel that good. But this also puts us in a, in a box because what if come Sunday, we decide, wait a second, we're taking the Rams, and then I don't care first square.
- [49:13]
A
That'd be on me. But again, I, I like, I, I'm comfortable enough to put the Seahawks here. I know you're wavering a little bit on the total, so it's like, you know, I'm not gonna force you. I mean, if you want to feel good about the total. Dr. Nick, he's on the over in this Rams Seahawks game.
- [49:30]
B
Oh, that's interesting. I feel like I want to take Troy Franklin anytime.
- [49:38]
A
Touchdown prop for Sharper Square.
- [49:41]
B
Maybe all Right.
- [49:43]
A
That's ballsy. If you're doing that. I'm going to take Denver, obviously. I like Denver. Make your decision.
- [49:51]
B
Let's go. Jared Stidham over pass attempts for your Sharper Square.
- [49:57]
A
Yeah, you don't even have a number, though. You're just gonna throw it out there.
- [50:00]
B
31 and a half.
- [50:01]
A
All right, all right. I'm taking. I'm taking Denver plus four and a half. Okay, doubling down.
- [50:08]
B
All right, Denver plus four and a half. What's our parlay?
- [50:14]
A
I mean, I. I like where you're at. I mean, like, we're both at with a Franklin anytime touchdown. Like a Denver plus four and a half anytime touchdown with Franklin. That's going to be crazy good odds. I can. I can put that in real quick in the heart.
- [50:28]
B
I love that idea.
- [50:30]
A
But that's a really fun parlay for the first game. And if you don't trust Franklin like us, Jesus are your friends. You don't have to do the whole thing because you want to pay -120. But if you want to take Denver up three points, seven and a half, take the total down three points of 39 and a half. Don't hate that either. As a fun parlay, It's. You're getting two key numbers. You're getting the seven and a half and you're getting under the 40. Both. Both are fun to me. For parlays for that game.
- [50:56]
B
Let's do the Franklin.
- [50:58]
A
Yeah. I love Franklin. I love that you're in on it.
- [51:00]
B
It's.
- [51:00]
A
It's a funny little thing when someone broke it down to me, it's like, hey, I've been watching a lot of cinema tape here, and it's a lot of Franklin in these tapes. And it's like, hey, that's a. That's a fun point. The guys.
- [51:09]
B
That's more.
- [51:10]
A
Six touchdown receptions this year. So he's clearly a guy they look for in the red zone.
- [51:15]
B
All right. This has been Sharper Square, part of the volume podcast network. We will be back on Sunday morning with the official picks. Our brass balls. So much more. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Also download us from Spotify, Apple pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate. Review. Subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is the gift. Until next time. Love you.
- [51:38]
A
The road to the super bowl is like a mythic quest. It's a demanding journey, an adventure that creates heroes. This is an Iheart podcast.
- [51:53]
B
Guaranteed human.