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Sharp or Square
SHARP NFL BETS Week 10: Ravens-Vikings, Rams-49ers, Eagles-Packers, Steelers-Chargers, Patriots-Bucs and more
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- [00:00]
Chad Millman
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:04]
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- [00:37]
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- [00:49]
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- [01:20]
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- [02:45]
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- [02:48]
Chad Millman
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Chad Millman
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- [03:13]
Simon Hunter
That'S odoo.com welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock that we are part of the Volume Podcast network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my bff, my companion, my compadre, my co host, professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [03:38]
Chad Millman
Chad, how we doing?
- [03:39]
Simon Hunter
I don't feel like I got English enough on that. Hello, Simon. That's better.
- [03:44]
Chad Millman
There you go.
- [03:45]
Simon Hunter
Dude. There's so much news impacting the lines since the trade deadline and there's also just been general, massive line movement overall since we did our show on Tuesday. Freaking wild. Absolutely freaking wild. I don't know if you've got any deep, deep thoughts on that. Let's hold them because I want to hear what the wise guys have to say in sharp calls. This is our Thursday week 10 episode. We're going to narrow down the options on the five picks we like the best. We're going to inch our way closer. Subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify. Let's get into this thing. Every week, you know what we do? We are going to hear from Simon's fellow professional betters on all the conversations we had on Tuesday. They've always got opinions. I have no doubt they'll have a lot of things to say about what we discussed. Let's get to sharp calls.
- [04:45]
Chad Millman
I have to answer this phone. All right. Ring, ring telephone ring. Somebody saying, baby, what you doing? Yeah, let's start where guys are on the opposite of us, which, you know, I always, always love hearing the other side. And the one that really jumped out was the Chargers. And a lot of love from the pros on the Chargers. Maybe we're suckers. I just can't get over again plus three here. I just that's gonna be a fun one to break down some.
- [05:14]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, we're gonna. That's the Charger Steelers game and yeah, we're definitely going to discuss that one. So. Good.
- [05:19]
Chad Millman
But yeah, a lot of pros love the Chargers. Big Chargers Chargers spot. I guess let's start with the Rams as well. A lot of pros I talked to took Rams money. Shocked by that one. Commanders a big talking point this week. I I definitely remember us or at least myself. I I like Detroit. I still do. I'm happy they're betting it down. That's a fun one. We can break down some more. Patriots couldn't believe it. A lot of love from the Patriots. I Once again I'm dug in. I like really like Tampa. Starting to love it even more as I see the injury report and what guys are healthy for this Tampa team. So pretty interesting how much love there is for this Patriots side and the sides we agree on. Chad, we already knew jets that was going to be a pro side. It's. It's fluctuated the number since the trade deadline. That's gonna be a full one to break down Miami. Tons of love from the pros. Tons of love for Houston. I I'm going against the pros here. I didn't even mention it. The Raiders talked to some pros. I really like that one. Again, another game of Hold Steady Fast and I really like Denver in that spot. And the last one that shocked me. Tons of love for the pros on this Bears side. A game that I feel like we were kind of on the other side of it. We talked how we kind of like the Giants. I'll give you some reasons why they like that Bear side if we break that game down later.
- [06:37]
Simon Hunter
Oh, we're going to break it down because it's one of the games that I was thinking about and it was in contention for brass balls because that number has moved quite a bit. Quite a bit. And I haven't been able to figure out why other than professional money coming in on the Bears in this spot. So you also mentioned another game that I've been getting more and more nervous about, which is the Bucks, because I cannot figure out how that line hasn't moved from two and a half to three yet. So some pushback from the wise guys is probably why. But first, let's get to that Raiders Broncos game. Obviously, it's our Thursday show, so a lot of people might not hear might not hear the show until after the game. You're getting some feedback from the professionals on the Raiders side, we both love Denver, and, like, this wasn't even a question. We actually were debating if Denver was going to be Simon Says or Chad's choice because we both liked it so much. We liked it at eight and a half. It's now at nine and a half. I don't know what the wise guys are seeing in the Raiders. You can't take anything from that game against a Jags team that lost their best pass rusher because he tried to punch a guy in the face. And you're still playing against a not very good defense. Brock Bowers was wide open every game. I mean, every play. Isn't all this stuff the Broncos can account for in a short week in a game? The Raiders went to a full overtime and they're not a very good team. I don't get it. I don't get it.
- [08:11]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I think most of the white guys I talk to, they just don't trust, you know, a quarterback like Bo Nix to be this big of a favorite in a divisional game. Especially you look at the history of Denver, right? And this is the hardest part, too, because to me, it's a lot of. It's irrelevant to history of Denver before Sean Payne took over, but they have not won against a divisional opponent in a primetime game since, like 2017. Okay, doesn't matter.
- [08:33]
Simon Hunter
Doesn't matter.
- [08:34]
Chad Millman
That was my. My. My exact pushback. It's like if you look at those teams from those years, they were bad. They had bad coaches. They just weren't good. And they've been in a really competitive, tough division all throughout those years. So that makes sense, though, why they'd push back, because it is technically a huge number in a divisional game in a short week. But I already gave it out. I gave out that overtime stat, which to me is just makes so much sense, and it was actually wrong. I thought it was 3 and 23. I forgot last year, the Bears and this exact spot actually won uncovered or covered last year against the Lions. Remember that insanely fluky game on Thanksgiving?
- [09:13]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I do. Where the Lions should have been up 72 to nothing in the first half.
- [09:17]
Chad Millman
And then even that they're up 21 nothing or 21 to 3 the first half, and somehow Bears came back and covered really late. So, you know, I'm not going to get pushed off this one. I get where they're coming from, and I'm with you. I just think defensively, schematically, they can take away Bowers. And then what are you going to do as an offense like, I know they're trying to establish a run, but just now it's been working. Chip Kelly, whatever he's trying to do, it's not been working with that run game. And Gino, I still think even in that game, as good as he looked, he still had so many horrible throws, so much questionable moving with his feet. And it's just a really tough spot. Obviously, we talked about it being on a short week here on the road against a Denver team that, you know, we put it as one of the best teams in all football. Like, we're respected in that way, defensively especially. So I know it's a lot to swallow bone next year, but I can't get away from it. Chad, I really like it and I don't know, maybe we do put in the contest. We'll figure it out. Because there are five games I like this week, but people know I really love this game. I love this matchup. First half, Denver, full game Denver. I'm all over it.
- [10:17]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, same, same, same. Not shame, same. Maybe we'll be shamed, but I don't think so. This, this was one, like coming out of my 1 in 4 malaise. This is one of the games that made me start to feel like, okay, I can see it. I have clarity. I'm feeling confident, felt good about this one.
- [10:38]
Chad Millman
God, we need it. We cannot start the week. Oh, and one.
- [10:40]
Simon Hunter
Dude, we freaking need it. As Bob Scoochie, our old friend Bob Scoochie like to say, we need this for our lungs. We are underwater. All right. New York Giants at the Chicago Bears. This line, it blew up over the last 48 hours. It got up to four and a half. It's down to four at Hard Rock. We've talked about Hard Rock. It's a sharp book. So that gives you an indication of what the wise guys think when this line got to four and a half. But they also love the Bears at three. They love the Bears at three and a half and some pushed it up to four from four to four and a half. I started to see the Giants and I talked about this on Tuesday. The Bears run defense is so bad. And they're, I mean, not their run defense, their pass defense is so bad and their secondary is so bad. You could see how Jackson Dart could have a lot of success against the Bears and a defense that, by the way, has not been able to hold anybody under a 25 point game. I'm exaggerating, but that's basically the line of demarcation here. Unless they Were committing, forcing a bunch of turnovers. They won with the Command. They won against the Commanders because of a bad handoff that got them the win in that primetime game against Jaden Daniels. They beat the Cowboys because of a bunch of turnovers. They beat the Saints, which still came close to covering because of a bunch of turnovers. Every other game they've had, it's going down to the wire and it's close. And they're winning because there's something fluky happening and because Ben Johnson is a miracle, not because this team is very good. So four and a half just feels like too many points. I'm surprised to hear the wise guys say they're liking the Bears here.
- [12:32]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I'm probably going to have to join them here. Chad. I, I, I, if, if you really don't like a side here, I think there is still value on the total. Total is down to 46 and a half and all the reason behind this movement to me is because of the weather. People. Like we're tracking models. You're getting tons of info and right now a bunch of different models are predicting rain or snow and very cold temperature in this matchup, which to me favors this Bears team that wants to run the ball heavily and has one of the best run schemes in all football against a defense that is really bad. Giants are bottom 30 in the league.
- [13:06]
Simon Hunter
Terrible.
- [13:07]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Defending the run.
- [13:08]
Simon Hunter
They're, they're the worst.
- [13:10]
Chad Millman
Are they now? Yeah. So.
- [13:13]
Simon Hunter
The Bears, like, you're right. I'm just like, obviously I have a strong opinion about the Bears. Their run offense has been so good and that is a major, major factor against this team and the weather. You're right. Could be. It just might play into the way Ben Johnson wants to play this game. It'll give him an excuse not to let Caleb Williams throw the ball.
- [13:33]
Chad Millman
Yeah. And again, it's, you can take these positions and get out of it Sunday if this all blows over and these models are totally off. But you know, they're extremely pretty accurate. Two, three days out here, the line has come down from 49 to 46 and a half. It lets you know the books are getting really, really respected money heavily towards the under. But you're looking at the splits right now. It's still mostly towards the over. I mean the tickets and the money slated towards the over. The public, obviously, like we talked about, they're going to be on this Bears team like no. 1, no one's going to be trusting the Giants right now like we talked about. Right. That's why we Kind of like this Giants team. This feels like a good spot for them playing against a inflated Bears team that got really lucky. They covered all those numbers for those people last week and those people are coming back now hitting the Bears again. So I'm like you, I wanted to be on the Giants Were shocked to hear the professionals were taking these heavy positions on the Bears. Now you dive into it and see what the weather could be like. This just feels like a great spot for the Bears team compared to a young rookie quarterback in Jackson Dart who already has fumbling issues now playing in bad element weather. I don't know, I, I just, I, I can't get there in the Giants if I know that's scenario. So yeah, just if you don't want to take a side here. I still think the under has value on it.
- [14:47]
Simon Hunter
I hate the Bears in this spot.
- [14:49]
Chad Millman
I know it's such a Giants number. It's brutal.
- [14:52]
Simon Hunter
Such a Giants number. I'm gonna wait. I'm just waiting. I don't think it's going to get to 55 but I'd rather just see the weather and know what I'm betting into on Sunday. I like I, I don't have to bet this one so for me I'm going to wait. New Orleans at Carolina. Carolina is a five point favorite. It was five and a half, moved to five still five at Hard Rock. Five and a half in a lot of other places. I want to say play the number but the truth is like this number home or road division dogs of five plus points. It's basically a 5050 proposition. So if you're looking at it from that point of view there is no real edge in terms of historical preced. Carolina at home is great. The rushing game is great. They're really confident the Saints are not. They might not have an NFL quarterback on their roster.
- [16:02]
Chad Millman
Yeah, the number just spooks you. It spooks me too. I'll probably end up just taking a large position with Carolina on the money line and just avoid this game if I can because it does feel like it's mispriced and this is a great spot for this Carolina team at home against what we just said is just a non existent offensive quarterback and could he show up here and have the game of his life? Yeah, we've seen that happen all the time. Right. These guys pop for one game but just as a betting man I love this number and working against the Panthers, just the history of them being a favorite. Right. I think they're on a crazy streak. They're owing 10 as a favorite and that's a lot of Bryce Young too. I think he has three or four games mixed in there. So yeah, I'm a game I'm not barely ever into. It's just I found other games this week I like a lot more. But still on Carolina's side. Still taking the number at minus five but yeah, much more comfortable putting their money line in it. Wow. It's already. It's up to minus 245. So people been hitting it. It was aggressive. Yeah, it's been getting hit this money line on the Panthers.
- [17:03]
Simon Hunter
You know, a game that we are into and I hate to say it, and maybe it's the sickos in us. The Cleveland Browns are visiting the New York jets on Tuesday. When we started the show, the Jets, I think were two point favorites. It had gone up from one and a half to two. During the show, the news broke that Sauce Gardener was being traded to the Indianapolis Colts for multiple picks. Later in the day it was announced that the jets were trading Quinn and Williams, their star defensive tackle, to the Dallas Cowboys for multiple picks. Yesterday it was announced that Quincy Williams, the Jets starting linebacker, Quinn's brother all Pro in 2023, was being benched for lack of performance. We still don't know who the quarterback is going to be for the New York Jets. On Sunday, the New York Jets GM said that the jets are still trying to win. He knows how much those guys try. We are still trying to win this season. Quote, maybe he and Aaron Glenn are not in the same page because Aaron Glenn said yesterday I said we would make the fans proud. I didn't say it would be this season. That gives you a lot of confidence. Here's the problem. Here's the problem. Simon, you ready?
- [18:41]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [18:41]
Simon Hunter
The line has moved to jets plus two at Hard Rock plus two and a half everywhere else. And the fundamentals of this game remain the same. It was never about the jets defense. It's about the jets offense against the Browns defense because we have zero expectations that Dylan Gabriel, whether he's playing Quinn and Williams or Sock Gardner, whoever else is going to be playing in those positions, is not an NFL quarterback. So we were betting when we liked the jets the other day against Dylan Gabriel. Why wouldn't we still be betting against Dylan Gabriel? This is a massive move.
- [19:24]
Chad Millman
Yeah. A game though. I need it to be Justin Fields. Honestly, I know it sounds stupid, but I like his matchup a lot against this defensive front in the Cleveland. And shockingly in his career, he does really well against These type of defensive fronts. When he plays a defensive front that's, you know, got a high sack rate above 4%. He's 4 and 2 against the spread in his career, which again, doesn't sound great. If you look at Justin Field's career, it's probably the only positive ATS stat he has. When you really dive into it, he's just not a covering guy. His whole career, he's just had a rough go of it. And looking at this matchup, it really is kind of weird that the public is so comfortable hammering this Brown side. Even with all the trades. Even before that we were talking on our show, they were loving them then as a favorite. I mean, as an underdog. Now they're really still loving him as a. As a favorite. And this to me is going to come down. Tons of pros. I know professional groups when I come in the Jets, I mean, again, I get why we're doing it, but there I am also a little wary of betting this one because we have to remember these are human beings. How are they going to respond to what just happened from their front office? Like their front office basically just waved the white flag on the season. Like they. I agree with it too. I mean, some Jeff fans are complaining. It's like, dude, you guys, that was like our dream scenario. You dumped two guys that. I don't want to say they're being overpaid, but just they were not going to help you get to where you need to be in the next two to three years. You need to totally tear it down. So, you know, Dallas, horrible trade, in my opinion, Colts, very questionable. But, you know, for the Jets, I love the move. You're stocking up on what should be really good drafts.
- [21:03]
Simon Hunter
Now.
- [21:03]
Chad Millman
Do you have the front office to make the right picks? That's to be determined. So just for this game, Chad, I like it. Really about the number, though. This to me is going to come down if you can still get the plus two, plus two and a half when you hear this. I will take position on the jets once it gets below the two. I don't know how much I'm going to be investing here until I know exactly who the quarterback is going to be. And if that is in fact Justin Fields, we can re. You know, re enter this one on Sunday morning and talk about putting in the contest. But as you said, right now I'm. I'm betting into the two and a half without even knowing who the quarterback is.
- [21:33]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I am as well. It the flip side of the team sort of Being frustrated is new guys get a chance to prove themselves in a wide open situation and put on tape for somebody for next season how well they can play. I don't. I just. I never buy the fact that guys are going to stop competing. When you're a professional athlete getting paid, you want to stay in the league, this is your best chance to do it. There's going to be a guy who's getting a chance to start, a cornerback who hasn't a chance to do that.
- [22:07]
Chad Millman
Oh, I'm in. Like, on the. Like Bree Hall. Bree hall had a foot out the door. Was almost on the Kansas City Chiefs kid to wake up today, and he's still on the Jets. That's got to be weird mentally. Like, yeah, and I'm sure you'll get it back. He's a professional. But I just think of all those scenarios like that, the guys on this team, you know, you were so close to being on a winning team. Obviously, not everybody. I mean, some guys went to Dallas. That's a. That's a tough trade. But, you know, I just. I thought it was really interesting that they didn't move Breeze hall because they apparently wanted a third and then take a fourth. And it's like, what are you doing? Jets just sell it all, man. You're trying to lose here. And Bruce hall, again, as someone that's back the jets here, I am so happy he's still on this team. They need him. Offensively, he's by far their best weapon.
- [22:50]
Simon Hunter
Well, look, the flip side is Breece hall keeps showing how good he is, and next year he just gets a bigger deal from somebody.
- [22:56]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [22:56]
Simon Hunter
So, you know, so, yeah. Hate to say it, but we're kind of on the Jets.
- [23:02]
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- [23:33]
Sponsor Voice - PayPal
This podcast is sponsored by PayPal. Okay, let's talk holiday shopping. When you want to make the most of your Money, head to PayPal's app before you check out. They give you the flexibility to pay in four no fees, no interest. And this is big. Bigger than the 12 foot snowman on your lawn right now. You can get 5% cash back when you pay later with PayPal. So whether it's the must have merch or for that signed jersey you've been eyeing, PayPal helps you make the most of your money this holiday. Save this offer in the PayPal app expires 1231.
- [24:08]
Sponsor Voice - Liberty Mutual / Wasabi
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- [24:18]
Sponsor Voice - Total Wireless
Podcast is sponsored by Total Wireless, the official wireless partner of ufc. When you're streaming the fight or sharing those takedown highlights, you need a wireless provider that keeps you close to the action. With Total Wireless, you're covered by the Verizon 5G network, so you don't have to worry about your connection being knocked out at the biggest moments. It's not something you can usually say about a wireless provider, but Total Wireless really does have your back. They're in your corner every second of the day, so you never miss a thing. Visit totalwireless.com or visit your local Total Wireless Store to learn more about how Total Wireless can be in your corner. 5G access requires a 5G cable device and a 5G service area. Additional terms apply. See website for details.
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- [25:26]
Chad Millman
Limu is that guy with the binoculars.
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- [25:33]
Simon Hunter
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Chad Millman
Liberty Mutual Insurance Company and affiliates Excludes.
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- [26:40]
Simon Hunter
Jacksonville at Houston. Houston. Look, on Tuesday, we talked about wanting to wait on this game until Houston was an underdog. Houston is an underdog. It's one at Hard Rock. Bet one and a half. In a lot of other places, we're just betting on the defense. We're not betting on Davis Mills, who we would expect. Davis Mills is going to be a little bit better because, I mean, obviously he has limitations, but he's got a full week of practice. He's not coming in. In the end, at the beginning of the second quarter, a game plan that was built for somebody else entirely. So I like. I still like Houston here a lot. I like him as an underdog a lot. Simon, be patient.
- [27:18]
Chad Millman
Hard Rock here in Jersey's already just moved to plus two, so.
- [27:21]
Simon Hunter
Really?
- [27:22]
Chad Millman
Yeah. So there's going to be money coming on the Jaguars. The Jags have owned the Texans again their last couple of meetings. They've just. Even when CJ has been the quarterback, they've kind of owned them. It's a really weird matchup, just division. When you talk the time. There's a couple divisional games this week. You'll. I'll give out the trends. There's just trends that favor certain teams, certain matchups. So, yeah, game I'm with you on. I really love the Texans here, but I'm trying to be patient, trying to avoid this if I can, because it's like, I'm not going to force this one unless I'm getting a really good number. So it's two at Hard Rock right now. A couple books. Like we say, Hard Rock's a sharp book. Couple public books have already popped. Two and a half. So this could get to three by Sunday. Like, I. I just see the public really coming on this Jaguars team as the week goes along here. Again, it's. It's Davis Mills. Like, I get it. Like, this should be a great spot for this. This Jaguars team. And we love Houston's defense. They can only do so much, like we say all the time. So I'm like you. I still like Houston. I'm going to be patient here, get a better number. Like I said, this is moving up, people. You can get two and a half right now. Key number. I'm going to grab that on Houston.
- [28:29]
Simon Hunter
A lot of. A lot of sort of be patient.
- [28:36]
Chad Millman
Conversation right now because the numbers are moving against us. I just don't want to take bad numbers Here when we can get. It looks like we're gonna get some good numbers this weekend.
- [28:43]
Simon Hunter
Right? So if you can get. I would say if you can get Houston two and a half. Get Houston two and a half. I don't know that it'll go to three at some point. There's going to be like an aggressive amount of buyback from professionals. I'm actually surprised it's getting as high as it is knowing that most of the people I'm talking to like Houston as an underdog and we're just waiting for it to get to that number. So the fact that it's still going up, what is that saying to me right now?
- [29:15]
Chad Millman
What do you mean? Some pro money Said this Jaguar side.
- [29:18]
Simon Hunter
I know well that, you know, it's okay. It's a little bit nerve wracking. I like it when we're all. When we're all aligned, when everyone's together. It's like a group sweat. Grouper. New England at Tampa Bay.
- [29:34]
Chad Millman
There we go. Some. Finally some good games.
- [29:36]
Simon Hunter
Tampa bay is a 2 1/2 point favorite. This was Chad's choice. I gotta tell you, I'm a bit disappointed that it hasn't moved even a half point to three. It's especially concerning because while the tickets are on the Bucks, even more money is on the box. And so that tells me that there is some wise guy love for Tampa Bay, despite what we talked about in sharp calls. And I kind of don't get it. Like, the Bucks have had extra rest, which means Baker is hopefully cured of some of the ills that ailed him. We don't know about Bucky Irving. We know that their offensive line could be improved. We know there's going to be a lot of passing in this game. Fine. But I like the coaching matchup. I like the Bucks at home. I like the Bucks coming off rest. I like fading the Patriots when they're finally playing a competitive team on the road, a more challenging team. Give me the other side here. Unless we're both aligned and the Bucks are going to be the ones that we love.
- [30:48]
Chad Millman
Yellow, too. I'm just. People be cautious here. It actually has hit three a couple times this week and it's been fed away very quickly. So there is some very smart money that's resisting this at 3. So it's letting you know that professionals are betting that this will be a close game where me and you are betting that this won't be honest, like, because we're taking two and a half here. We know the deal with Baker right? Like he. He wins close games, usually by a field goal at two and a half. Again, like, I'm like you. I can't believe we're getting away with this. It feels like a very, very nice number with a quarterback that tends to play close games under a field goal. So I get where the pros are coming from. I get their position on this New England team. They've been riding them a lot this season. They've been paying them out. This is another true test spot for New England. Right. Like, this is a game where I think we're on alignment. Like, they should get rolled here. A lot of questions, though, about the health this Bucks team. Like Chad said, we don't know yet if Buck Irvin is back. Chris Godwin still hasn't practiced yet this week. Those are two huge pieces to all pros to that offense that they need in this game. So I'm hoping they come back and when they get cleared, this number does move. Maybe that's what's holding up the line moving here. But yeah, just breaking this one down even, you know, not going to give Will Campbell too hard of a time last week because he's going against Miles Garrett or two weeks ago. And then he kind of got embarrassed last week against Atlanta. Like Atlanta's line got a ton of pressure against this doing on front. You expect the Bucks defense and the blitz scheme they run, you know, should get pressure against Drake, man, we've seen him kind of. That's the only thing I really struggles with when he can't do what he's so great at, which is getting outside the pocket and use his legs running for 10 yards. If you keep him contained, bottle him up, he'll struggle. And we know that's what top Bulls likes to do. I mean, I'm an Earth. I'm a huge Hertz guy. Every time her struggles against this Bulls defense, it's because he bottles over five in the front. So I'm with you, Chad. It's. We'll see Sunday. Maybe I can. I'll get more info and maybe I can talk this out of it. But as we said it right now, I've bet heavily into the Bucs. I love the Bucks. I think it's a great number and I think this Patriots team is just like last week, a little overvalued. And I think they're overvalued here. There's probably. Should be three and a half. It's two and a half. Come on.
- [33:01]
Sponsor Voice - Total Wireless
We.
- [33:01]
Chad Millman
We can't avoid this one. It's too good.
- [33:04]
Simon Hunter
Tampa Bay Bucks, they're going to be in the final five. It's going to be hard to keep them out. That's the feeling.
- [33:09]
Chad Millman
I'm like, we'll see what I talked for this weekend. Because I'm like, if. If. If I have a really smart group being like, yeah, this is a P. This is a Patriot spot. You guys got to avoid this one. Okay, Maybe I could talk you out of it. But I'm so bad into it. So are you. I'm with you. I just cannot. I can't see it not being one of our five.
- [33:23]
Simon Hunter
Simon, you and I are the really smart group. That's the ball game. You and I are the smart group. They should be worried about us. If they're betting the Patriots, they should be like, oh, shit, Chad and Simon. It was Chad's choice this week, and Simon is bet into it. Like, we gotta rethink. That's how it should go here.
- [33:45]
Chad Millman
But you know the issue. It's us. There's public, the pros, everybody. All of us are on Tampa. I've only heard a couple really smart guys on New England. And like you said, this number is hitting so much resistance at 3. I'm just making sure we're not missing something here because it's interesting. Like you said, this has not gone to three. I thought this would for sure be three by Thursday.
- [34:04]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I'm actually a little shocked myself. All that. All that alpha talk aside, I'm a little shocked myself. You know what I'm not shocked about? That we're talking about Arizona as a six and a half point underdog at Seattle and that we are going to make the Arizona Cardinals as six and a half point underdogs are brass balls bet of the week.
- [34:31]
Sponsor Voice - Total Wireless
You know what it takes.
- [34:32]
Sponsor Voice - Liberty Mutual / Wasabi
It takes brass balls.
- [34:36]
Simon Hunter
We got what we wanted. Jacoby Brissette is starting. And in what has to be the ballsiest. I feel like we're doing this in honor of Jonathan Gannon, because Jonathan Gannon, in three different press conferences over the past few days, has basically said they're benching Kyler Murray. At first he said they were doing this because the Jacoby Brissette was continuing to perform well. And there was also issues with Kyler Murray in the health bucket. And then he said, we're doing it because Jacoby Brissette is playing well and it's better for the offense to be able to plan with consistency over the course of the week. They have since put Kyler Murray on IR to, quote, be able to focus on his rehab, which leads to the question, what has he been doing? He hasn't played in a month. Is he going to focus harder over the next four weeks? Everything about this and this was really telling. The Arizona Republic wrote, for the first time in seven years, Kyler Murray is not the starting quarterback of the Arizona Cardinals. The underlying meaning there is that Jacoby Brissette is the number one QB and Kyler Murray has been benched. And you can read into it any way you want about him going on ir. That could just be all right, we're going to take some of the pressure off of this conversation. But before he went on ir, the coach had basically said Brissette is going to give us the best chance. We're going with Brissette. That's interesting to me. Now the question becomes, are we stepping in it with the Cardinals? Because is it, does it become too public to go with a dog that just came off a big win with a quarterback we know has been streaking after winning on Monday night?
- [36:34]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I have some good stats that go against that and I will say the Collier stuff, I was taken back by it. I can't believe they went this route. But it makes sense because what we talked about, how much better the teams looked so much better with Brissette running the offense and the fact that if you do put them in the spot right, put them on the ir maybe does save a little face and saves a little bit of trade value for you if you're trying to get rid of him in the off season. And I think anybody knows, even Arizona fans, they saw this week Kyler was practicing like he was running around out there. He was good enough to take reps as if he was going to play last week. He's clearly not. Didn't have some type of setback unless we missed it. Right. They know more than we do. It's the team inside the building. But yeah, this is pretty shocking turn of event. I saw Kyler Murray, I believe he's 28 years old. Still not too late, brother. Go back to mlb. Go get that money. See if you can make a career out of it because it's crazy. He's one of the greatest athletes ever to come out of high school and just shows how football, it's so mental and he never to me ever got that aspect down. Was never right mentally. All the town in the world. I mean I always remember that play against the Raiders. I think it was a two point conversion. He ran around the backfield for about 20 seconds and I think it was like a total of like 80 yards. He scrampered.
- [37:50]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, yeah.
- [37:51]
Chad Millman
And put it right back in the end zone for the two pointer. So brutal. Brutal end to that saga. But for this game, let's just look at. Okay, like Chad said, isn't this a bad spot? It's a team that won outright on the road as a dog on Monday night. It's actually not terrible statistically. In the next game as an underdog, they're 9 and 7 straight up 10 and 6 against the spread since 2000. It's not terrible. So like, okay, we got a little something there. Now. This one really jumped out to me. Seahawks and this Cardinals. I talked about divisional matchups. This is crazy, Chad. And very bizarre. Again, it doesn't matter because I guess these two quarterbacks weren't even on these teams when all this went down. But since 2000, 20, 22, Seahawks 8. No, straight up 7 to 1 against the spread, against this Cardinals team, they've just owned them in this division, which again, we say all the time that that does happen. But I was like, okay, let me find some good Cardinal stats because that's the side we want to be on. It's a lot of Seahawks love here.
- [38:53]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, let's find some, some bias here. Let's find a way to make us feel comfortable.
- [38:56]
Chad Millman
I need something. Yeah, yeah. Well, just because it feels like this is a great number for the Cardinal team because I.
- [39:01]
Simon Hunter
Let's fit, let's fit some. Let's find some stats that fit our narrative and what we want to do.
- [39:06]
Chad Millman
Every week they've been undervalued, so they lost to Tennessee as a 7 1/2 point favor with Kyler. The next week they were at the Colts. They he was an eight and a half point dog. Would they lose by four or five points in that game? The following week they are seven point dog to Green Bay at home. They lose that game by four points. And then we just saw with Dallas there are three and a half points. So to me, the book keeps undervaluing Brissette. That's why it's been hitting. So I was like, okay, what kind of numbers do we have here for teams making a trip out to Seattle in a short week, which again, I think that favors the type of quarterback percentage. A veteran quarterback that just seems like he's totally in rhythm with this offense. This is pretty wild. Since 2021 teams in this exact spot heading to Seattle in a short week, they're 7:1 straight up and against the spread. So we've talked about the lost art of this Seattle home field advantage, right? Like we all think back to the Legion of Doom, but these last couple years has not been so. And then even this year, I've already gave up those stats. They lost to the 49ers and week one at home, okay, we threw that one out. Their defense gave 38 points or 35 points to Baker at home against Tampa. Like it's just night and day. Their road splits are insane how much dominant their defense is and offense is on the road. So I just like this one on a sell point for the Seattle team. So me and Chad loves the plus six and a half people. I think this will keep moving as well. Like I said, the book, the publics, they keep undervaluing per set. So I could easily set in this get up to seven. Just like last week we talked. I like the Cardinals there, plus two and a half. I said, if you're, if you're patient, this will get the three. Against Dallas, I got the three and a half because again, people just do not believe in Bruce said. So look at the splits right now. 80 of the money, 80 of the bets right now are on Seattle. So I, I just, I think we'll get to the seven. We're giving it out right now. It's six and a half a Hard Rock. I, I love this bet. I love this spot. And yeah, it's always a little scary. Ben Agains arguably the best team, hottest team in football right now, which Seattle is. But we're just playing the market, playing the number, and we think this team is overvalued right now.
- [41:07]
Simon Hunter
I would definitely say wait on the seven. I think it's going to get there. This one, unlike the other ones that we've talked about, this one feels like it's, it's trending in that way. There doesn't seem to be much resistance from the bookmakers and maybe they know they'll get it when it gets to seven. So I'm, I'm holding off. I haven't bet it yet. I love it. If I'm not going to get the six and a half, if I'm not going to get a seven, I'll bet the six and a half, but I'm definitely waiting on the seven.
- [41:34]
Chad Millman
You're going to get it. There's two sevens right now in Jersey, so there's going to be sevens are going to start popping eventually.
- [41:38]
Simon Hunter
All right, so let's get that seven. All right, quick, quick, quick word from our sponsor, Hard Rock Band. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting Sponsor Hard Rock Bat this is the golden time of year when it's not just pro football, NBA, college football, college hoops and hockey all share the stage. There's always something to bet on. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet yet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a five dollar bet and if it hits, you get not only your winnings, but $150 in extra bonus bets. And if you're looking for an edge before you lock in, check out the Hard Rock Bet Stats hub. It's loaded with trends, streaks and stats to help guide your picks. Numbers don't lie and neither does the data in there. Check out the stats hub now and get the edge and bet with confidence. The Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook app is the only legal sportsbook for whenever you're in Florida, and it's also live in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois and Colorado. Coming soon to more states too. And Hard Rock Bet offers new promos every single day. So whenever you're listening, just open the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week, download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit payable in bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida Offered by the Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 and over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 833 playwise in Indiana, few or some you know has a gambling problem and wants help. Call 1-809-with-IT gambling problem call 1-800- GAMBLER Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia the Los Angeles Rams are bidding, are visiting the San Francisco 49ers. The line right now is four. On Sunday it was three. On Tuesday it was three and a half. It's four at Hardrock. Honestly, it's four and a half almost everywhere else. I feel like the bookmakers are telling us screw off. Go ahead and bet the Niners. We dare you. What's interesting to me is I am seeing a much closer split on the betting percentages, meaning the number of tickets between each side, than I am on the money, which is heavily in favor of the Rams. You know you said in short calls, wise guys have come in on the Rams. My question is, was that all at three and people are ignoring it at four? Do people like the Niners at four and a half what's our opportunity here? Because I got an opinion and it makes me scared.
- [44:37]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I was a little hesitant here because we talked, I took a position on the Rams -3, and I said, once I got the three and a half, I want to be on the 49ers. And I was completely wrong. I obviously missed it. Like you said, it's been bet up now to four, four and a half. Kind of read it as more of a Mac Jones kind of thing, where maybe the line reflects that Purdy will be out another week. And this is kind of settling into what a Mac Jones line is, which is four, four and a half, which seems fair to me. And, you know, when you want to dive into this game, I think it's pretty simple. You just dive into the head coaches. Right. Because the quarterbacks keep changing, the pieces keep changing, but when you really get to the basis of it, it's two of the best offensive minds in all football going against each other. And it does make a difference where you know which one is the underdog. And that tends to be the one I usually take my position on. So just dive into this matchup. Believe this is the 18th time these two guys have met up and matched in this type of game. Shanahan obviously has done best in this matchup. He's 11, 7 against the spread, his exact games. But what I thought was so interesting was diving into what is mcvan as a favorite because that to me isn't that terrible. 11 and 7. I. I thought it was honestly more because it seems like Shannon owns them. So as a favorite with Stafford, McVeigh 3 and 6 against the spread and straight up against Shanahan. And that's including this year where they lost outright at home as an eight point favorite against McVeigh on that Thursday night game. We talk all the time Thursday night are weird games. Like stuff like that can just happen. But it's even more so worrying that this game is on the road now and McVeigh on the road against Shanahan as a favor, he's 1 and 3 straight up and against the spread in this exact spot. So the numbers keep telling you you don't want to go with McVeigh here. And then you dive into even further when he's on the road straight up in his career against, you know, Shanahan, this is the last eight times they've played this exact game. He's one in seven McVeigh. So he's just struggled mightily against Shanahan on the road in these type of games. And you could say, well, that's kind of fluke because look at all the different quarterbacks through all the years. And that's my whole point though. It's the coaches stay the same, the schemes stay the same. So I really liked this a lot for this 49ers team. And the only hesitation I have is a stat I gave out that I want to keep hammering home about this team. They cannot handle success. They can't handle winning. I remember two weeks ago where I said you had to bet Houston against the 49ers and one of those stupid stats I gave up that still held true since Christmas of 2023. This is from our guy, Evan. 49ers 1 in 14 against the spread after a straight up win, 1 to 14. So it's like this insane pattern. Even more so they're owing three straight up after a win when they're a dog in the next game. So they're owing three against spread and straight up as a dog in this exact spot since Christmas. And this, and this is just a weird thing where whatever it is, this team doesn't handle the wins and they get overvalued by the books and they have a letdown. So that to me might be the reason these pros are coming on this Rams team. The trends point to it. It's like Every time this 49ers team has a big win, especially on the road, they've come home, they've laid total eggs. And that's happened a couple times already this season. So I really do like the Niners here. I'm get. I'm probably talking myself off it, but I'm not going to force it. In a four, I won't take it. But a four and a half, I'm taking 49ers there. Once you get, once you get across that key number of four and a half, I have to take it. Especially where all Those trends show McVeigh just struggles on the road against Shanahan in this exact spot as a favorite. When people are under, you know, under betting or not believing, the Snyders team, they tend to shine in these exact games.
- [48:25]
Simon Hunter
Listen to me.
- [48:26]
Chad Millman
Listen.
- [48:28]
Simon Hunter
Don't talk yourself out of it. The Niners are the right side here. Last 14 games in this rivalry, the favorite one to 13 against the spread.
- [48:41]
Chad Millman
Wow, that's crazy.
- [48:43]
Simon Hunter
The Niners are the side. We, we. We knew it on Tuesday. It's the. The. To me, the line is moving not because of the transit, it's moving because of the Niners defense. They're just so banged up and they're mov. It's moving because of the Rams rush defense, which has really become elite. And if you're looking at this game schematically, the best opportunity that the Niners have is to get the ball into McAffrey's hands 35 times, as they've been doing. But Matt Jones has been showing up and he's doing exactly what Kyle Shanahan needs him to do. The number is way too big. It just, it shouldn't be four and a half points. And so that's the side. Simon, you and I, we have confidence. Niners. Niners are the side. No fear. I don't care what anyone else is saying. Here's one that, that I do have some, some concerns. This one is a two and a half. It's the Green Bay packers hosting the Philadelphia Eagles. It's actually it was a two and a half. It's moved down a bit to two. You and I both talked about it on Sunday at two and a half. You said you were hearing a lot of rumblings about the Eagles at 2. I don't know if anyone's going to get to watch this game because it's a Monday night game and who knows where the YouTube TV ESPN standoff is is going to end. But like shutdowns, could this be the moment when it's two massive fan bases that are, you know, bringing the cable giant and the streaming TV giant to its knees? Man, tricky. I don't think you mentioned the Eagles and sharp calls, but I'm still going to go with the Packers.
- [50:41]
Chad Millman
I am too. I didn't mention it much because it is a little split, but I would say obviously most pros are on Green Bay, but when I dove back into why my model had this so off, like I said, I think I had it at Green Bay minus one. Maybe we're undervaluing Tucker Kraft and what he means to this Green Bay team and how big of a loss that is for this offense. But I can't get over how great of a spot this is for the Packers. So maybe I'll have a stronger opinion come today morning. I can give talk more about this. There's other games I bet more into. I just don't know what to do with this one. It's another game where it might be in the 20s, might be a little snowy on Monday night. This could be affected by the weather and you know, if there's no golden the rookie receiver and now there's no Tucker Craft, it's got to be an issue right. Like a passing attack needs its weapon, especially a team like Green Bay with the just an unnamed receiving core. Right. It's a rotation of guys now you're taking away the number one tight end and number two receiver. That's got to affect Jordan Love at some aspect. So yeah, for me I'm still betting a Green Bay especially at minus two. But I don't feel as strongly as I did about it on Sunday night or let alone on Tuesday.
- [51:51]
Simon Hunter
I I don't feel as strongly about it either. I think there's been a lot of movement this week that has made me feel better about games like the Niners. I'm still bought into the Bucks, the Cardinals, the jets are really interesting to me. I know we like the Broncos too, so I do think we're starting to find consensus on a bunch of games.
- [52:07]
Ryan Seacrest
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- [52:38]
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Fascinating. It's accompanied by his natural ally, Doug.
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Chad Millman
Limu is that guy with the binoculars watching us.
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Simon Hunter
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- [55:45]
Chad Millman
I don't know how you've missed Miami.
- [55:50]
Simon Hunter
On Tuesday we talked about liking Miami and it being the side.
- [55:54]
Chad Millman
Yeah, we hated it. That's how you should know it's the right. That's the right bet for us and probably should be one of our five come Sunday.
- [56:00]
Simon Hunter
All right, let me.
- [56:01]
Chad Millman
Let me hit you with some numbers.
- [56:02]
Simon Hunter
Talk. Talk me into it.
- [56:03]
Chad Millman
Hold on, I'm gonna try here, but.
- [56:05]
Simon Hunter
Talk me into it. Give me the numbers but then tell me your hypothesis for the game.
- [56:10]
Chad Millman
How do you I just love this running matchup. I think HN against his Bills defense favors this Miami team a lot of ways. And it's also a unique spot whether it's TUA at home with a big number who always covers for us in.
- [56:24]
Simon Hunter
This exact spot except against the Ravens.
- [56:27]
Chad Millman
Thursday night like a week yeah, that was different though. That wasn't a midday in the sun type of game. That was a prime time late game. Look, we got burned by that one. No doubt. I'm trying not to let that affect us in this game here. I'll hit you with the numbers real quick.
- [56:40]
Simon Hunter
All right, hit me with the numbers.
- [56:41]
Chad Millman
Josh Allen, let's start with him, the goat. We all know how great he is, but on the road as more than a touchdown favorite, I think we got to both agree it feels like he's not that great. And when you dive into the numbers, it proves out he's 2 and 6 against the spread in his career on the road as a seven half point favorite or more. Okay, not the biggest deal. All right, well, well, let's dive into some more. Dolphins got blown out last week, right? They, they were at a dog of seven points or more. They lost by 20 points or more last week in this exact spot. Those type of teams in a bounce back spot, 15 and seven against the spread. So we already knew it's going to be a buy low on this Dolphins team because they just got embarrassed and blown out.
- [57:23]
Simon Hunter
But every week is by low, Every week is by low on the Dolphins now.
- [57:29]
Chad Millman
I mean we bought high last week after they blew out Atlanta. That was again, that was on us. We should, we misread that one. Tua this week he just got embarrassed. This is his back to back. So his second homestand game, which you know, we always talk, we love Tua at home or indoors in controlled environments. Tua at home in this exact spot to his second straight home game in his career. He's ten and two straight up. Nine and three against the spread. Oh, but Chad, what's he like as an underdog in this exact spot?
- [57:59]
Simon Hunter
Oh, tell me Simon.
- [58:00]
Chad Millman
Three and oh, straight up and against the spread in this exact spot to at home in a back to back game as an underdog. So I, I kept diving into it and it's like is there more stats I can pull from the good Chad to try to flip on this one? I got another one for you. Do it at home. 26 and 11 straight up and when they lose and they have the following game again at home, he is three and oh, straight up and against the spread covering those games by 15 points per game. That's an insane stat that he basically, if he gets embarrassed or loses at home, he's dominant in that second game at home. And we talk, we just, we've been profitable betting Tua at home in that hot sun, whatever it is all the Mushu and the Neons. It's true. Like teams get burned out, they wear out until always comes back and covers these big spreads in the second half at home. So I just wanted to bring that game up as a game you're going to need to take a little closer look at. I'm bet into it. I don't feel great about slamming the table about TUA and this Miami team. But this is a great matchup for their offense. And I think defensively as great as Josh Allen is and that offense is. Cook is banged up. He's been on injury report this week and he's not been practicing. I think that'll be interesting if the number one running back is Ray Davis. Even though Miami doesn't have a good front. That's a huge deal. Cook is like a top five top ten running back in football right now. So that's another reason I think this number has dropped a little bit. Like again, there is no public or professional love I've honestly found on this Miami team. It's just us, buddy. And that's makes me love it even more. Everyone's left them for dead. And this exact spot. We gotta be buying this Miami Dolphins team. I know we need to get out of here. I'll be quick on the next one. Detroit. The pros are all over this. Washington, this number has been bet down now to seven and a half. I get it. I'm missing something. This might be a huge blind spot once again. But I have to trust Campbell just like I did last week. Campbell and golf on these, these spots. I'm so freaking proud of you, man. That's a way to show up. You talk about pressure. We live in pressure. That's where we freaking thrive. You did it again. You always find a way to win. We're destined for this. Just stay the course. I've been betting it for so long. We've been making money off for so long. What do we do here? We're trying to go against our instinct here and I know it's the very public side. It's probably the most public side of the week. So maybe that's how we avoid it. It's so public, maybe we can talk ourselves out of it. But Goff and Campbell, after a straight up loss, 218 against the spread, like it's just what they do. They are on a 12 game covering streak after losing the previous game right now. So every time they've lost they've come back and covered the following game for 12 straight times. So I Just wanted to bring them up real quick. I know that I'm going to get a ton of shit from a lot of pros this upcoming week at the Book. You know, I'm on this public side once again trying to. Because again, they're taking a victory lap on the Vikings. They were totally right. Terribly terrible read by me.
- [60:53]
Simon Hunter
I do worry they've got a lot of developing injuries in their offense, specifically in the offensive line. That is impacting their ability to block and their rush game. And I talked about this on Tuesday. I love Detroit last week too. They were Chad's choice as a big number against the Vikings because I had no faith in J.J. mcCarthy and I had all the faith in the Detroit Lions ability to run the ball against a Minnesota Vikings rush defense that that hasn't been playing well this year. The problem is, and I noted this on Tuesday, what we saw on Sunday was a lack of success rate that allows them to get to a position on third down where they can execute. You could say that they will do better against the commanders in this spot because their defense is just terrible. But the line's also been having offensive line issues and some injuries on that offensive line. So I think that has as much to do with sort of this line moving from, what was it, eight and a half to eight down to seven and a half as it does with fading the Lions overall because of what happened last week.
- [61:54]
Chad Millman
Yeah, the biggest thing holding back Detroit this year, it's very simple when you dive in the numbers. They're 25th and third down conversion rate and they're 18th and first downs. But can't convert. They can't, but this is the definition of a get right where they're playing a defense at in red zone efficiency. They're 27th in the league. They are giving up the third, their 30th in yards per play. Defensively, they are giving up their 29th and giving up the most passing yards in the league and they're 23rd against the Rush. So this is it for Detroit. If they can't get right here. Like I said, maybe you're right. Maybe I'll swear them off for good and as honest as I can. I don't know. I really don't even know how to respond to that. You know, I mean, I'm shocked by that.
- [62:38]
Simon Hunter
Steelers visiting their Chargers. The game was three and a half on Sunday. It's moved down to three. We liked it a lot at three and a half. You said you're hearing stuff from the wise guys on the Chargers, which is surprising to me because Joe Alt is out and it's a game in LA where the Steelers travel and it's going to feel like you're, you know, back at the old Three Rivers when you're.
- [63:02]
Chad Millman
Playing, you're not get it. Especially when it's the plus three. I just do not get this Chargers love. So it's another game I'm trying to be careful on because it does feel way too easy, like we're getting a dog here against a team that should not be favored against this defensive front. And you know, one takeaway could be this defense played over 70 snaps against that Colts team last week and that's not a pushover Colts team. That's a big physical, yeah, really tough Colts team that, that could affect this Pittsburgh defense and what's already been a year of very up and down play. Right. We joked about they need five turnovers per game to steal these type of games. So that's the we're here. But the one that really jumped out to me about a couple people send me this stat about just Herbert and how great he's been in these night games which was pretty shocking just because it feels like before Harbaugh got that they were just so terrible. This Chargers team at least did that. No coaching, but he's actually on a five game ATS streak winning night games. Think the only one I could pop in my head was that Chiefs game to start the year. I know that was a night game for a fact when they played down in Brazil. In his career, Herbert 16 and nine against the spread, covering by three and a half points per game in this exact night games type of game. So there's a lot to like him here as a favorite. He's 10 and three straight up in these type of games. I just wanted to bring it up just because we're just, we're so in love with the Steelers. I want to talk about the other side, why people might like the Chargers and Herbert to bounce back, but I'm with Chad. I just can't get over the fact that losing Joe Al, this, this offensive front, him having no time, they can't set up a run game either because they can't run block either. It's just, it just feels so negative for this Chargers team. On the flip side, I just love Pittsburgh. So maybe again I can avoid it because I'm lying to myself saying well Pittsburgh's defense, 70 snaps now, short week on the road, that's a tough spot to put this defense is. But just man, what am I What am I grabbing here with this Charger team other than Herbert? It just feels like a lost bet.
- [64:55]
Simon Hunter
Here's what if I had to predict how we're narrowing it down on Sunday. I think we're talking about San Francisco. I think we're talking about Arizona. I think we're talking about Houston. I think we will have talked about Denver. I think the jets will be in the conversation. I know Miami's going to be in the conversation because I already could lean that way. And you're feeling heavily, you're feeling strongly about it, so. And maybe Green Bay, we'll have to have a conversation. I don't think Detroit's gonna make it. I don't know if the Steelers will make it either. Maybe. Maybe that's a mistake and we'll. We'll talk it out on. On Sunday. But those feel like the games to me. Again, Denver, which we both love tonight, Thursday night, the jets plus two and a half. The Cardinals plus six and a half, which is our brass balls. The Niners plus four and a half. Miami plus nine and a half. Feel like the leading contender. Simon, give me your biggest bets.
- [65:56]
Sponsor Voice - Liberty Mutual / Wasabi
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- [66:00]
Chad Millman
Obviously people know love. Denver tonight have going to have a lot of money tied to them. Dolphins pretty big into bucks but pretty big into and you know, a lot of these games weighing positions like 49ers probably going to put as a bigger bet. Same with the Cardinals just waiting to get better numbers on those games last week.
- [66:18]
Simon Hunter
Underdog parlay and favorites parlay. We are leaning into favorites so much more. We ended up having to do both sides of games which we don't love doing. So Matt Mitchell's suggestion. I think your suggestion.
- [66:31]
Chad Millman
And we'll just do three.
- [66:33]
Simon Hunter
Let's do three for the underdog parlay.
- [66:37]
Sponsor Voice - Total Wireless
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- [66:40]
Simon Hunter
Your dog likes my dog.
- [66:43]
Chad Millman
Jets plus 110.
- [66:44]
Simon Hunter
I was just going to say jets have to be in there. Texans.
- [66:49]
Chad Millman
See. Yeah, I like that.
- [66:51]
Simon Hunter
Ners.
- [66:52]
Chad Millman
I like that.
- [66:53]
Simon Hunter
All right. Underdog Moneyline parlay. Round robin. Jets. Houston. Ners. Favorites.
- [67:06]
Chad Millman
Panthers.
- [67:08]
Simon Hunter
Panthers. Lions.
- [67:11]
Chad Millman
Panthers. Lions. Ravens.
- [67:13]
Simon Hunter
Ravens for sure.
- [67:15]
Chad Millman
Bucks minus 140.
- [67:16]
Simon Hunter
We're all in on the Bucks either way.
- [67:19]
Chad Millman
Yeah, that's true. That's true. Bears are.
- [67:22]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [67:22]
Chad Millman
Minus 210.
- [67:23]
Simon Hunter
Let's do the Bears.
- [67:25]
Chad Millman
Bears.
- [67:25]
Simon Hunter
Let's do the Bears.
- [67:26]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [67:26]
Simon Hunter
I had already forgotten about the Bears.
- [67:29]
Chad Millman
Survivor before we get out of here. Tough, tough week. I unfortunately already used the lines. God, I can't believe I'm doing it. Panthers get it to me.
- [67:42]
Simon Hunter
Wow.
- [67:43]
Chad Millman
I know. My God. I got to do it, though. It's that, it's that kind of, it's, it's that year where you, you got to start getting into the ugly teams that win each week. So I'm going to go Panthers.
- [67:53]
Simon Hunter
All right. Sharp versus Square. We both lost last week. Would you like to go first? You had, you had the Chargers. Last week I had the Jags.
- [68:02]
Chad Millman
Oh, I guess I'll flip it. Last week I went with a minus nine and a half road favorite. Give me Miami plus nine and a half. Home dog.
- [68:08]
Simon Hunter
Wow. Yeah, I love that. That makes me feel even more confident about putting in the contest, though, I will tell you that.
- [68:17]
Chad Millman
That's scary.
- [68:18]
Simon Hunter
I'll go with San Francisco.
- [68:20]
Chad Millman
There you go. What number are you taking? Four and a half. Four.
- [68:23]
Simon Hunter
Four and a half. And you're taking Miami plus nine and a half.
- [68:26]
Chad Millman
Let's go.
- [68:26]
Simon Hunter
Right?
- [68:27]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [68:28]
Simon Hunter
All right. All right. This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume podcast network. We will be back I'm Sharper Square on YouTube on Sunday morning. As you eavesdrop on our intimate conversation, we will panic, make human decisions, regret the rest of the day. We'll be back On Sharper Square YouTube Sunday night, 7:30 ish PM to recap all the misery, watch or listen. I'm Sharper Square YouTube. Like and subscribe. You can also download us from Spotify, Apple pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe, leave us. Five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Till next time. Love you.
- [69:05]
Chad Millman
Hey.
- [69:07]
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Chad Millman
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Simon Hunter
Gift that's perfectly theirs. Whether you're shopping for a shiny surprise.
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Chad Millman
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- [71:44]
Simon Hunter
Okay, only 10 more presents to wrap. You're almost at the finish line, but first, there the last one. Enjoy a Coca Cola for a pause that refreshes.
- [72:12]
Chad Millman
This is an I Heart podcast.