Sharp or Square: NFL Week 10 Betting Breakdown
Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman, Simon Hunter
Episode: SHARP NFL BETS Week 10 (Ravens-Vikings, Rams-49ers, Eagles-Packers, Steelers-Chargers, Patriots-Bucs, and more)
Date: November 6, 2025
Episode Overview
This week, Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter deliver sharp, data-driven NFL betting insights for Week 10. They dissect significant line moves post-trade deadline, break down pros vs. public betting, and zero in on their top five picks for the contest slate. Expect deep dives into divisional matchups, weather impacts, trends, and contrarian logic—plus a healthy dose of playful banter.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Massive Line Moves Post-Trade Deadline
- Context: Multiple games saw significant line shifts from Sunday through Thursday, largely due to player movements and public/professional betting waves.
- Simon: “Dude. There’s so much news impacting the lines since the trade deadline...Freaking wild. Absolutely freaking wild.” (03:44)
2. Sharp Calls: Where the Pros Disagree—or Agree
Pros’ Picks (04:44–06:37)
- Chargers: Pro bettors favoring Chargers against the Steelers.
- Rams: Unexpected sharp money on Los Angeles despite movement.
- Patriots: Surprising pro support, while Simon and Chad prefer Bucs.
- Jets & Miami: Both hosts and pros like these dogs.
- Houston & Denver: Pros split; hosts holding firm on Denver.
- Bears: Heavy pro money causes confusion, as hosts had originally leaned Giants.
Chad: "A lot of love from the pros on the Chargers. Maybe we're suckers. I just can't get over again plus three here." (04:57)
3. Thursday's Raiders-Broncos Game
- Hosts’ Take: Both Chad and Simon are all-in on Denver, regardless of professionals liking the Raiders at the big number.
- Analysis: Overtime hangover for Raiders, short week, and belief in Denver’s defense and coaching turnaround.
Simon: “First half, Denver, full game Denver. I’m all over it.” (09:59)
4. New York Giants at Chicago Bears (10:40–14:47)
- Pros Hit Bears: Wiseguys’ heavy bets moved the line from 3 up to 4.5 and back to 4.
- Hosts' Debate: Concerned by Bears’ reliance on turnovers and possible weather favoring Chicago’s run game.
- Simon: “Their run offense has been so good and that is a major, major factor against this team, and the weather, you’re right...”
- Chad: On holding for weather: “I’m just waiting...I don’t have to bet this one.”
5. Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints (14:52–17:02)
- Edge: Number looks good for Carolina at home, given Saints' lack of offense and historic poor ATS as favorites.
- Simon: “Just a non existent offensive quarterback...I’m much more comfortable putting Carolina’s moneyline in it.” (16:01)
6. Browns at Jets: Roster Fire Sale Fallout (17:02–23:02)
- Key Trades: Jets trade Sauce Gardner, Quinnen Williams, and bench Quincy Williams.
- Hosts’ Approach: Waiting on Jets QB news (especially if Fields starts), but the line has shifted sharply. Both are hesitant but willing to back Jets +2/+2.5.
Simon: “I never buy the fact that guys are going to stop competing. When you’re a pro athlete...you want to stay in the league.” (21:32)
7. Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (26:40–29:14)
- Line Watch: Waiting for Houston to get +2.5 or +3 before pulling the trigger.
- Trends: Division game nuances, with pros generally leaning Houston but monitoring sharp buyback.
Chad: “I’m going to grab that on Houston.” (28:29)
8. New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Bucs (29:34–34:03)
- Hosts Love Bucs: Despite sharp resistance at +3, hosts are heavy on Tampa at -2.5, citing coaching, rest, and personnel edges.
- Awareness of Market: Both worry about missing something due to resistance at the key number.
Simon: “Simon, you and I are the really smart group. That’s the ball game.” (33:23)
9. Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (Brass Balls Bet, 34:03–41:34)
- QB News: Jacoby Brissette starting; Kyler Murray benched and then IR.
- Stats: Since 2021, teams making the short-week trip to Seattle are 7–1 ATS; Seattle’s home edge no longer in effect.
- Simon’s Advice: Wait for +7, expect more public money to hit Seattle.
Simon: “There doesn’t seem to be much resistance from the bookmakers...I love this bet. I love this spot.” (41:06)
10. Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (41:44–48:43)
- Line Movement: From Rams -3 to -4.5, but Simon leans Niners as a value dog.
- Coaching Trends: Shanahan owns McVay when underdog, especially at home. Niners are 1–14 ATS after straight-up wins since Dec 2023, casting doubt on their post-victory consistency.
Simon: “Don’t talk yourself out of it. Niners are the right side here. Last 14 games in this rivalry, the favorite 1–13 ATS.” (48:28)
11. Eagles at Packers (49:09–51:50)
- Pros Lean Packers: Most sharp money towards Green Bay, especially if key offensive players are available—though Chad less confident due to Packer injuries.
- Weather Factor: Could be snowy, further clouding the read.
12. Miami Dolphins as a Contrarian Buy (55:44–58:25)
- Host Reluctance = Sharp Play: Feeling sick betting Miami after last week’s blowout, but stats say buyback is strong in this spot:
- Tua 9–3 ATS in 2nd straight home games.
- Tua 3–0 ATS at home as a dog after a home loss.
- Josh Allen just 2–6 ATS on the road as a 7.5+ point favorite.
Chad: “That’s an insane stat...if [Tua] gets embarrassed or loses at home, he’s dominant in that second game at home.”
13. Detroit Lions vs. Washington Commanders (58:45–62:37)
- Pros Fade Lions: Heavy sharp money on Washington as line drops from 8.5 to 7.5, mostly due to Detroit’s banged-up O-line and 3rd down struggles.
- Chad: Still leans on Goff/Campbell's post-loss ATS streak (12 straight covers after a loss).
14. Steelers at Chargers (62:37–64:54)
- Pros Split: More sharp voices on Chargers, impressive night-game stats for Herbert. Chad and Simon wary due to Chargers’ O-line injuries.
15. Wrap-Up: Parlay/Favorites, Dogs, Survivor & Sharp vs. Square Picks (65:56–68:27)
Best Bets/Underdog Parlay:
- Dogs: Jets, Houston, 49ers.
- Favorites: Panthers, Lions, Ravens, Bucs, Bears.
Survivor Pick:
- Chad: “Panthers. Gotta do it. It’s that kind of year—you gotta start getting into the ugly teams.”
Sharp vs. Square Showdown:
- Chad: Miami +9.5
- Simon: 49ers +4.5
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- Simon on the Denver game (09:59): “First half, Denver, full game Denver. I’m all over it.”
- Chad on the Rams-49ers trends (48:28): “Last 14 games in this rivalry, the favorite 1–13 against the spread.”
- Simon on the Miami play (55:54): “We hated it. That’s how you should know it’s the right bet for us and probably should be one of our five come Sunday.”
- Chad, summing up their group of ‘sharp’ picks (33:23): “Simon, you and I are the really smart group. They should be worried about us.”
- Simon, on market buyback and patience (28:35): “A lot of sort of be patient conversation right now because the numbers are moving against us. I just don't want to take bad numbers.”
Timestamps for Key Segments
- 03:44 — Market chaos after trade deadline
- 04:44 — Sharp Calls: Pros’ picks and disagreements
- 10:40 — Bears-Giants debate and weather impact
- 14:52 — Panthers-Saints line talk
- 17:02 — Jets trading spree, betting impacts
- 26:40 — Texans-Jaguars line monitoring
- 29:34 — Patriots-Bucs betting psychology
- 34:03 — Cardinals-Seahawks (Brass Balls Bet & Kyler drama)
- 41:44 — Rams-49ers trends, coaching narratives, ATS stats
- 55:44 — Russ & Chad debate buying Dolphins in ugly spot
- 58:45 — Fading Lions as trendy public spot
- 62:37 — Confusion on Steelers-Chargers, night games
- 65:56 — Underdog/favorite parlay selections, survivor pick
- 68:01 — Sharp vs. Square pick contest
Contest Picks Shortlist
- Denver Broncos
- Jets
- Arizona Cardinals (Brass Balls)
- San Francisco 49ers
- Miami Dolphins
- Houston Texans
Tone & Takeaways
Chad and Simon keep the conversation energetic and witty but always sharp on data, market moves, and contest strategy. Listeners will leave with actionable leans, cautionary tales (weather, injuries, line movement), and the ever-important reminder: sometimes, the ugliest bet is the sharpest.