SHARP NFL BETS Week 11: Bears-Vikings, Seahawks-Rams, Broncos-Chiefs, Bills-Bucs, Lions-Eagles and more

Summary

Sharp or Square: SHARP NFL BETS Week 11

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: November 13, 2025
Episode Theme:
The episode is a classic “sharper/square” faceoff: Chad (industry analyst and host) and Simon (pro sports bettor) comb through Week 11’s NFL card, breaking down which bets are “sharp” (favored by professionals/wiseguys) and which are “square” (public consensus, casual bettors). They debate games, share pro betting insights, dig deeply into numbers, and argue about where the real edges might be in the week’s slate. Listeners get contest picks, moneyline parlay ideas, survivor pool insights, and deep-dives into specific sides—packed with stats, trends, and sometimes a vibe check.

---

1. Episode Highlights & Main Theme

• Purpose: Guide listeners toward the best (sharpest) NFL bets for Week 11, cutting through noise and public misconceptions.
• Method: Both hosts use professional sources, sharp call-ins, and their own modeling to sort through contested lines. They react in real time to market moves, sharp/public splits, and injury news, with special attention to the biggest games.

---

2. Key Discussion Points & Insights

A. “Sharp Call” — Wiseguy Market Pulse

[04:47]

• Simon reports heavy pro interest and pushback on key games:
  • Rams: Pros love this spot, moved Simon off his initial Seahawks lean.
  • Panthers: Unexpected sharp love; pros see value even with Panthers' struggles.
  • Bills-Bucs: Many pros on the Bills, though Chad leans Bucs. Number (5.5) is holding because of this pro support.
  • Cleveland: Heavy agreement with pros; early bet at +8.5 loved, especially with Lamar Jackson injury news.
  • Denver: Pure pro’s side; not a surprise, wiseguys like the number.
  • Lions-Eagles: Number bounces between 2.5 and 3, indicating pro action on both sides.
  • Raiders: Simon thought pros would love it, but he feels lonely; only a few are on this side.

B. Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

[07:23, 08:53]

• Line: Hovering at 5.5, with some juice implying possible move to 6.
• Chad’s angle: Bengals’ offense (with Joe Flacco) superior to the Steelers’ depleted secondary.
  • “This Bengals offense can be exceptional, and right now the Steelers secondary is sus. How do they defend that?” [08:29]
• Simon’s take: A fishy line. Lack of faith in Zach Taylor post-bye (1-4 ATS), but sees value over a key number (>3).
  • “Something just seems off. I can't believe we're getting two free points with the Bengals.” [10:11]
  • Lean: Bet Bengals, not a top play but likely a contest candidate.

C. Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans

[13:43]

• Line: Crosses below key number 7 due to QB injury uncertainty (CJ Stroud out, Davis Mills likely starts).
• Both: Bet Texans at -6.5 for defense vs. weak Titans offense.
  • Chad: “I think they might only need to score one touchdown to cover.” [13:49]
• Simon: Warns the pros are actually heavy on Titans due to public joining and backup QB in play. Market could keep dropping if Stroud is ruled out for sure, but books seem comfortable under 7.

D. Green Bay Packers at New York Giants

[16:27, 17:36]

• Discussion about Jameis Winston: The wild-card factor; big personality, high-variance, emotional rollercoaster.
• Simon: Leans Packers due to Giants’ lack of weapons, but the market’s memory of Packers’ bad ATS results as favorites makes him wary of everyone loading up on Green Bay teasers/moneylines.
• Chad: “Jameis is your type of QB… I just want to bet put us on Jameis… he’s won us so much money, and lost us so much money over the years!” [20:24]

E. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills

[22:15]

• Bills pros vs. Bucs public: Many pros on Bills, but Chad now questions Bucs (Bucky Irving’s absence & Baker’s lack of mobility changes everything).
  • “We believed in Baker ball. Have we leaned too much into that?” [22:01]
  • “Baker hasn’t scrambled in about three weeks… Is there just something we don’t know?” [22:43]
• Simon: Notes Josh Allen’s big bounce-back stats as a favorite after losses, but both are now hesitant to commit; want to see injury reports.

F. Chargers at Jaguars

[30:26]

• Line: Moved from Jags +3 to +2.5, pros coming in on Jaguars but not a strong conviction.
• Simon: Only liked it at +3, wary with Trevor Lawrence, especially as Jags had a “ringer” of a defensive outing last week (teams usually regress after), possibly down key WRs.
  • “Situationally, terrible spot for Trevor Lawrence… but this is usually where we go against the Chargers.” [31:09]

G. Seahawks at Rams — “Brass Balls Bet of the Week”

[35:04, 35:52]

• Shifted from early Seattle support to Rams sharp side after pro pushback and analytic review.
• Simon: “McVay owns Seattle: 12-5 ATS vs. Seahawks, 11-2 since ‘19, Stafford 5-0 SU in this matchup.” [37:53]
  • Rams have been disciplined (zero penalties last week). Market is moving hard Rams, public is on Seattle.
  • “In matchups like this, it comes down to little things—tight ends, sound football, discipline.”

H. San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals

[40:54]

• Line: Moves up to 3; both lean Cardinals with Brissett and McBride in a strong matchup vs. a Niners defense unable to rush the passer. Marvin Harrison Jr. out, but not a dealbreaker.

I. Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens

[45:20, 46:38, 48:24]

• Both grabbed Browns +8.5 early, thankful with Lamar injury rumors now spreading.
  • Market down to 7.5 but they’d still take Browns. Home/road splits for Browns defense heavily favor Cleveland at home—a genuine edge.
  • “Cleveland at home since last season: gives up 20 points/game at home, 29 on road. They are much, much better at home.” [49:14]

J. Broncos at Chiefs

[55:34]

• Line: 3.5 at time of record, with some 4s in market.
• Simon: Initially liked Broncos as a pro-side, citing Sean Payton bounce-back trend, but admits Bo Nix’s limitations make him nervous. Still putting some on it, not his biggest dog.
  • “Maybe I’m betting the defense… It’s just brutal. But I have other gross dogs I like better this week.” [59:46]
• Chad: Not convinced, uneasy with Bo Nix and byes favoring Mahomes historically.

K. Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions

[60:17]

• Line: 2.5 (sometimes 3), heavily debated by sharps on both sides.
• Chad: Model gives edge to Eagles coming off a close win vs a team coming off a big win (Lion).
  • “If you give me a good team off a tight win against a team that just had a big win, I still get value.” [61:10]
• Simon: Lions have public on their side, Eagles have quietly improved defensive rotation, weather, and home/road splits matter. Drama around Eagles is mostly noise, but line movement and injuries favor Eagles.
  • “I just love this matchup for this Eagles team.” [63:36]

L. Raiders vs Cowboys

[68:30]

• Simon’s unpopular sharp play: Raiders +3.5.
  • “It’s like fixing a sinking ship with a bandaid. Cowboys secondary battered. I just love the matchup.” [68:48]

M. Panthers at Falcons “Missed Opportunity”

[70:21]

• Simon: Admits umbrella sharps are on the Panthers at +3.5. Factors: Falcons coming off international OT game (unique fatigue spot), Michael Penix (ATL QB) performance variables. Both agree Panthers should be considered at this number.

N. Bears vs. Vikings (Line Moves Live)

[73:04]

• Line drops from 3.5 to 2.5 while recording, reinforcing the speed of market moves for underdog value.
• Chad: “I do not like the Bears at two and a half.” [73:43]

---

3. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Jameis Winston’s volatility:

  • Chad: “Jameis is your type of QB, dude… the full experience… the oh, no throws, the oh, yes throws, the holy shit throws!” [18:00]

• On McVay owning Seahawks:

  • Simon: “12 and 5 against the spread… and since 2019 he’s 11 and 2 against the spread, Stafford’s 5-0 against Seattle.” [37:53]

• On Baker Mayfield’s recent play:

  • Simon: “He hasn’t scrambled in about three weeks… He didn’t use his legs like he usually does. Maybe he’s playing hurt.” [22:43]

• On Browns as a home team:

  • Chad: “The Browns at home… 30% less points, 30% fewer rushing yards, 10% fewer passing yards… It matters!” [49:14]

• On Eagles drama:

  • Chad: “There’s always drama. I think Nick Sirianni attracts the drama… but the Eagles have these big personalities, huge amount of talent, always going to be some kind of turmoil… and I don’t think it matters.” [65:39]

• Simon’s sharp motto:

  • “Don’t seek comfort. If you want special outcomes, you gotta be comfortable being uncomfortable.” [12:11]

---

4. Timestamps for Important Segments

• Sharp Call Market Reactions: [04:47]
• Bengals at Steelers Analysis: [07:23], [08:53]
• Texans at Titans (Pro/Sharp Spilt): [13:43]
• Packers-Giants & Jameis Riff: [16:27], [17:36]
• Buccaneers at Bills Injury Impact: [22:15]
• Jags-Chargers, Depleted Offenses: [30:26]
• Brass Balls Bet: Seahawks at Rams: [35:04, 35:52]
• Niners-Cardinals & Appendectomy Anecdote: [40:54], [42:49]
• Cleveland-Baltimore & Home Split Deep Dive: [45:20], [46:38], [49:14]
• Chiefs at Broncos (Uncomfortable Dog): [55:34]
• Eagles at Lions (Drama, Trends, Modeling): [60:17], [61:10], [65:39]
• Raiders “Lone Sharp” Play: [68:30]
• Panthers-Falcons (Missed by the Market): [70:21]
• Live Market Moves: Bears-Vikings: [73:04]
• Recap of Best Bets & Contest Lean: [74:15+]
• Best Bets & Underdog/Favorite Parlay: [76:04]
• Sharp vs. Square Picks: [77:30]

---

5. Summary of “Best Bets”, Underdog & Favorite Parlays

Most Discussed/Agreed Bets:

• Rams -3 (vs. Seahawks): Pros, stats, and McVay’s dominance.
• Bengals +5.5 (at Steelers): Value above key number with Flacco.
• Texans -6.5 (at Titans): Defensive edge vs. Titans offense, despite sharp vs. public split.
• Browns +7.5/+8.5 (at Ravens): Defensive home advantages, injury value.
• Eagles -2.5 (vs. Lions): Modeling and matchup edges, drama dismissed.
• Panthers +3.5 (vs. Falcons): Market error, sharp love for the hook.
• Raiders +3.5 (vs. Cowboys): Unpopular, but matchup-based lone wolf side.
• Broncos +3.5/+4 (vs. Chiefs): Market dog, more a defensive handicap.

Underdog Parlay:

• Carolina Panthers
• Arizona Cardinals
• Cincinnati Bengals

Favorite Parlay:

• Rams
• Ravens
• Texans
• Green Bay
• Eagles

---

6. Final Words & Tone

The episode is energetic and always on the edge between sharp-nerd quant analysis and tongue-in-cheek, exasperated “NFL is weird” humor. Both hosts balance numbers and “feel,” never afraid to admit when they’re unsure—and always urging listeners to value the number and the process over raw gut or media narratives.
The recurring refrain: “Find comfort in the uncomfortable. That’s where edges are.”
Listeners finish knowing the pro side for every big NFL Week 11 line—and the psychology behind each lean.

---

Final Sign-Off:
Catch Chad and Simon on Sunday for panicked last-minute pick locking, and Sunday night for the post-mortem, heavy on laughs, regrets, and wisdom.
“Love you. Hey, let’s be careful out there!”

Transcript

[Simon Hunter]

This is an iHeart podcast.

[Annabe Sofa Advertiser]

Tired of spills and stains on your sofa? Wash away your worries with Anabe. Annabe is the only machine washable sofa inside and out where designer quality meets budget friendly prices. That's right, sofas start at just $699. Enjoy a no risk experience with pet friendly stain resistant and changeable slipcovers made with performance fabric. Experience cloud like comfort with high resilience foam that's hypoallic, allergenic and never needs fluffing. The sturdy steel frame ensures longevity and the modular pieces can be rearranged anytime. Shop washablesofas.com for early Black Friday savings up to 60% off site wide backed by a 30 day satisfaction guarantee. If you're not absolutely in love, send it back for a full refund. No return, shipping or restocking fees. Every penny back Upgrade [e-mail] Offers are subject to change and certain restrictions may apply.

[PayPal Advertiser / Liberty Mutual Advertiser]

This podcast is sponsored by PayPal. Okay, let's talk holiday shopping. When you want to make the most of your Money, head to PayPal's app before you check out. They give you the flexibility to pay in four no fees, no interest. And this is big. Bigger than the 12 foot snowman on your lawn right now. You can get 5% cash back when you pay later with PayPal. So whether it's the must have merch or for that signed jersey you've been eyeing, PayPal helps you make the most of your money this holiday. Save this offer in the PayPal app.

[Simon Hunter]

Expires 1231 see paypal.com promoterms Subject to approval.

[PayPal Advertiser / Liberty Mutual Advertiser]

Learn more at paypal.com payin4paypal inc.nmls910457 Today's.

[Degree Cool Rush Advertiser]

Episode is brought to you by a cent that's made a legendary comeback. DEGREE Original Cool Rush the OG is back and better than ever. Cool Rush isn't just a scent, it's a movement. The kind of fragrance that millions of guys ask for by name. It's bold, fresh and delivers all day sweat protection with that cool, crisp vibe that made it a legend. Whether you're heading to the gym, the office, or just trying to stay fresh on a long day, Cool Rush has your back. So if you haven't tried it yet, head to your local Walmart and grab degree Cool Rush, the fan favorite scent from the world's number one antiperspirant brand.

[NBA on Prime Advertiser]

Hey Jason Tim Fear the NBA on prime is back tomorrow with another exciting Emirates NBA cup doubleheader. First bam. And a bio in The Heat take on Jalen Brunson in the Knicks. Then Steph Curry and the warriors square off against Wemby and the Spurs. If you're not a prime member, just sign up for a 30 day free trial. Heat, Knicks, Warrior, spurs Coverage starts at 6:30pm Eastern only on Prime. Restrictions apply. See Amazon.com Amazon prime for details.

[Simon Hunter]

And Doug, here we have the Limu.

[PayPal Advertiser / Liberty Mutual Advertiser]

Emu in its natural habitat helping people customize their car insurance and save hundreds with Liberty Mutual. Fascinating. It's accompanied by his natural ally, Doug.

[Simon Hunter]

Uh, limu is that guy with the binoculars watching us.

[PayPal Advertiser / Liberty Mutual Advertiser]

Cut the camera. They see us.

[Simon Hunter]

Only pay for what you [e-mail] Liberty Liberty, Liberty. Liberty Savings variant written by Liberty Mutual Insurance Company Affiliates excludes Massachusetts.

[Chad Millman]

Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock bet. We are part of the Volume Podcast network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.

[Simon Hunter]

Chad, how we doing?

[Chad Millman]

Felt extra excited to introduce you today.

[Simon Hunter]

Fired up. Week 11.

[Chad Millman]

Week 11. That doesn't fire me up. That just makes me sad. It makes me sad that we're at week 11, that we're in double digit weeks, that we're staring down the barrel of the end of the season. That just bums me out because I love football. This is our week 11 episode. We're going to narrow down the options to get to our final five. We're inching our way closer. Remember, subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify. But first, every single week, Simon, the wise guys listen to the show and every single week they've got opinions about what we are saying, where we are leaning. They like to tell us what they think about everything we discuss. So let's get right to it. It's time for sharp call.

[Simon Hunter]

I have to answer this phone.

[PayPal Advertiser / Liberty Mutual Advertiser]

All right.

[Simon Hunter]

Rain ring, telephone ring. Somebody saying baby, what you doing? It's been a crazy week, Chad. Honestly, a lot of calls about the different matchups and obviously the conversation we had. And the biggest one I got was our love for the Seattle. We're way off, gotta get on the ram. So that's that stuff again we're to talk about.

[Chad Millman]

By the way, I'm so glad. I'm so glad because I was having a change of heart yesterday and I like it when everything lines up for us.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. So definitely, definitely a game we're gonna need to talk about. Rams. Another game we might be missing on. Or just I personally might be missing on. Panthers. Tons of pros love the Panthers there, so maybe I can just avoid that game. Another game maybe I'll just avoid. I really like the Bucks. Tons of pros I've talked to really like the Bills and they have some good arguments about why they like that spot. But maybe we'll. We'll go against them together. Chad. I don't know. We'll see with that game. But a lot of back and forth about just the pros loving the. The Bills there. And that's what's holding that number. Because I felt this number before by this show today, it's still five and a half. So a lot to talk about that one. Games that I think we got a lot of love and agreeance on our Cleveland game. I mean, that game, we could have just walked into it as well. I know that full well. We didn't know Lamar had a bad knee, so we. We took a number, took a spot. Hopefully, you know, Lamar is all right. Wouldn't mind him missing this game for me and Chad, though. And we have an eight and a half because this would definitely drop. Yeah, four and a half. Five or maybe even three and a half. Fee is out. Tons of love for that one. Denver as well. Such a professional love. Not a shocker there. Another game, actually, I was pretty shocked. I thought it was going to be a tons and tons of Eagles love. That Lions. Eagles game is pretty split. I know some pros on both sides. So that number has touched three at a couple places and then immediately got hit back to two and a half. So a game, I thought it'd be all pros and all public. Really Split. Right. Public would be all over the lines. Pros would be on Eagles. It's not really looking like that way. So. Interesting game and another game. I'm kind of left on my low. Some chat. I thought the pros would be all over this Raiders game. It just might be me and three other guys. I don't. I don't think they trust this Raiders team.

[Degree Cool Rush Advertiser]

So.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, I'm not gonna get too many love.

[Simon Hunter]

Too much love for that one. Maybe it's because the Monday game, but not. Not too many opinions either way on that one, honestly. So I've had a couple people ask about that. Why do I love it so much? It really is just about the number and that Dallas team. But I get why people are so weary in this matchup.

[Chad Millman]

All right, let's. Let's get into it. Let's first talk about Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, which no one has mentioned. The line's been generally holding at five and a half. Bumped down five at Hard Rock. Bet. But I'm seeing other places where the juice is indicating it's going to go up to 6. I'm honestly surprised and a little bit disappointed that it hasn't been more aggressively moving to five like we're seeing at Hard Rock. Obviously I bet into it at five and a half. To me it entirely comes down to the offensive weapons for the Bengals. And I know everyone's going to say everything they want to about the Steelers. Could be a bounce back spot. Aaron Rodgers played terrible. Maybe the lines deflated a little bit because of how bad the Steelers did against the Chargers. Maybe Aaron Rogers and Pat Friarmuth and Jalen Warren can get right against a terrible, terrible, terrible Bengals defense. We know how bad the Bengals defense is. We've also seen how good the Bengals offense can be, especially against a suspect defense. And right now the Steelers secondary is sus like it's just terrible. How are they going to defend against a an exceptional group of receivers and Joe Flacco, who he's ageless.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah and we were both a little weird this one and we just understand the line. That's another game we just thought would make more sense at three. Three and a half. Like we said it was just two weeks ago, this Bengals team upset and beat the Steelers team and Steelers are banged up like they're not healthy. They have a bunch of injuries in a bunch of key positions as well. Bengals, like you just said, coming off a bye week. I mean I, I thought it was funny Joe Burrow who's rushing back, which is really impressive, great for him. But that's not going to fix any of their issues. Like this Bengals team, they literally have been scoring more points, averaging more points with Flacco at the helm than, than Joe. It doesn't matter. He's just, he's not the fix. This, this defense is just atrocious. So I agree with you. The number makes sense. You know, we'll grab it and hope for a back door. Maybe Joe will have the lead and the the back door will come from Rogers and we still have a key number above three and that will matter for us. But I thought it was interesting looking at Zach Taylor, the head coach. What can we take away from him in these type of situations after a bye week? Is he a good coach? Does he get guys prepared? He is one in four against the spread.

[Chad Millman]

I don't expect anything from Zach Taylor.

[Simon Hunter]

I mean, Zach Taylor, man. Just some people. It's crazy. So he's. I mean, I can't blame him. The offense has been good with Flacco, a lot of stuff, but apparently it's just been all matchup based. So. The last time they played, Joe Flacco made fun of the Spitzer team. He said he didn't even know the Bengals offense. They were just running the same zone scheme over and over again. So I'm looking for reasons to avoid it because I just don't. This number feels so fishy to me. I'm gonna join you. I'm gonna bet the. I'm gonna bet the Bengals. But I have not made this one of my bigger bets this week. I just. I don't know, Something just seems awful. I just can't believe we're getting two extra free points here on this Bengals team. Just. You said Steelers defense is just as bad. Just as bad as the Spangles defense. So. Really weird line.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah. It's a very strange line. Also, not that it matters. One where the other Trey Hendrickson doubtful to play this week with that injured hip even after the bye week. When you say that about Zach Taylor, I'm just like, I don't care. Like, he's so.

[Simon Hunter]

It just shows how atrocious he is. He comes out of a bye week. He's one and four against divisional opponents. That's.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah. But he's also atrocious when they don't have a buy. Like, I'm not betting on Zach Taylor in this game.

[Simon Hunter]

Even more so I'm betting on Joe Flacco. Joe Burrow.

[Degree Cool Rush Advertiser]

Go ahead.

[Simon Hunter]

Straight up as a dog in the spot as an underdog, losing a by combined score of 85 to 23.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah. But here's the thing. Honestly, I'm just trying to make it.

[Simon Hunter]

So we're protected here. I don't know if we're gonna make one of our five, but I don't.

[Chad Millman]

Know that we're gonna make it one of our five either. But Zach Taylor just never entered the equation for me. And this is similar that Mike Tomlin didn't enter the equation. Even though, you know, historically we'd want to fade Mike Tomlin as a relatively big favorite at home in the division that. That has tended to be where he hasn't coached as well. Right. And where the team has had a little bit of a letdown and they played down to the level of their opponent. This is entirely.

[Simon Hunter]

The number is actually good here for Tomlin. Like historically, him playing a divisional opponent after a bad loss on the road, coming home as a favorite, he actually does pretty well. But I agree with you. I just do not like Ben Tomlin as a big favorite. Guys that played for me, they can tell you one of my sayings, I got a lot of sayings is don't seek comfort. I realize if you're going to have special outcomes that you got to be comfortable being uncomfortable appreciating. My resume is seeking comfort.

[Chad Millman]

Joe Flacco's playing so well. Joe Burrow is coming back early because he's worried about his job. That's what's going on here. And I think we both know that's another flacco stat.

[Simon Hunter]

He's 9 and 4 in his career against the spread as an underdog against Tomlin. So he always performs well against Tomlin. Tomlin even said it so much there was the boogeyman. He could not believe he had to face this guy again and getting him traded in his own division.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, that includes when they played against each other in peewee football because they're basically the same age. Houston at Tennessee Simon we said we were waiting until this number got below seven. It took a minute, but it landed below seven Yesterday, Wednesday afternoon, middle of the afternoon and it's pretty much six and a half painted across the board, minus 110. No official word on CJ but he did not practice. The Texans did not, do not expect him to play this weekend. So this number was moving. Based on Davis Mills, Jeffrey Simmons is hopeful he will be back. I did bet the Texans at minus six and a half because I think they might only have to score one touchdown to cover this number. The defense is so good, that offense is so bad. There's, there's virtually no evidence that this offense can get the ball in the end zone often enough against this defense to, to cover less than a touchdown.

[Simon Hunter]

To me, yeah, I'm on it as well. It's the, the only problems I have for this one is it's tons of tons of pros are on this Titans team.

[Chad Millman]

Of course that's why it moved. No one's, no one in the public is betting.

[Simon Hunter]

Honestly, I thought it moved just because what you said was C.J. it came out. He didn't practice on Wednesday or Tuesday, I believe because of his concussion. I, I think that's when it moved to six and a half.

[Chad Millman]

It started moving Tuesday night to six and a half because that's when I bet it. And by Wednesday it was six and a half across the board.

[Simon Hunter]

So like, you know, the fact that it's, it's, it's more likely now that CJ's out. Add to that, you know you're looking at the early money. Here it is on Tennessee so it looks like the public is joining them which makes sense. It's Davis Mills on the road as a 6 1/2 point favorite. So I get where they're coming from. I think we both agree we're taking this position for the fact that we trust this defense but interesting, interesting number movement. I, I don't want to tell people to bet it or hammer now because it could drop. If it is official CJ is out. Maybe this does get the four. Four and a half like this number does keep dropping.

[Chad Millman]

There's no way.

[Simon Hunter]

I know, I thought that too but I just, I was shocked and moved off the 7 once the CJ concussion. No practice because I was like I was not expecting him to play this week anyway so.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah but if it was going to move it would have already been. It would have been a much more aggressive move in the past 24 hours from.

[Simon Hunter]

No, this is a fair head by the books because it's, it's gone under the key number now where like they're taking tons and tons of bets and I'm sure moneyline parlays and teasers now on this Texans team but they're fine with that position because they're in the background. I think they're saying well we think it's probably gonna be Davis Mills. That's what I thought was big. They moved off the seven so yeah, I'm just, I'll be patient with this one. We'll see where it goes. But like you said we're both in the six and a half. It's just the more I think about it it's like the. Me and Chad can be forced to watch this game and bet on this game. I don't know if we're gonna have to make this one of those games because I just, I don't much. I love the number with Davis Mills.

[Chad Millman]

Well we're of course going to be watching it. It'll be in the multi view.

[Simon Hunter]

There's no, there's no chance. I'm not this one like there's so many good games.

[Chad Millman]

I know but the problem is we, we have money. I'm not saying it's going to be in the contest. I'm just saying we have money on it at this point. I know that in the early windows that I got five screens I can watch on, I'll watch the five games that are in the contest and that we have bets on. And I'm going to have a bet on this game.

[Simon Hunter]

So if I was at home, I'd probably put on the iPad. I wouldn't even put on the tv.

[Chad Millman]

I think this game will probably be on my laptop.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, that sounds right.

[Chad Millman]

We'll see. We'll see. I mean, I know. I know for a fact Baltimore Cleveland is going to be on there. I know that Cincinnati Pittsburgh is going to be on there. So we'll see. Simon, I want to talk about the Green Bay packers as seven point favorites at the New York Giants. Because on Tuesday we talked about the packers and you had a slight lean to the Packers. I was wondering why, like, we would even try to make a decision. We didn't know who was going to be quarterback. Now we know famous Jameis Winston is starting for the Giants on Sunday. Russell Wilson has been demoted to third string. And Russell Wilson is now doing videos on cameo. He's made $300 million in his career. He's doing videos on cameo. Yesterday at his press conference, as the number one quarterback is QB1, Jameis Winston gave a virtuoso performance, including a Broadway musical interlude. Matt Mitchell, roll it.

[Simon Hunter]

I want fans to know that I'm gonna do my best. You know, obviously I'm gonna have fun, but I'm gonna execute. Have a surgical execution institution and just. And just play ball, man. Like, this is something I've been doing since I've been four years old. And I just get to do it in the greatest city in the world. I'm gonna be saying it with my son.

[Degree Cool Rush Advertiser]

What's the greatest city in the world?

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, that's a Hamilton reference, if y' all don't know. 10 year reunion.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, I mean, come on. Him acknowledging Hamilton's 10 year, 10 year anniversary. He's a legend. He's a legend. It's like Jamis is everything you love about betting. You and I talk about this all the time. You love the roller coaster of betting. I love knowing that I've got the win in the first quarter and then relaxing the rest of the day. I want to be right. I don't want the emotion. You want the emotion. Jamis is your type of QB dude. It's like all the betting. How do you not put in a small taste on Jameis? He is the full experience on Sunday. The oh, no. Throws the oh, yes. Throws the. Holy shit. Throws Simon Jameis a little taste. Come on.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. The biggest sin in life is that James is not like a top five quarterback. In this league, it just for he has so much personality. We just don't get from quarterbacks.

[PayPal Advertiser / Liberty Mutual Advertiser]

Right.

[Simon Hunter]

Most quarterbacks are just robots, which they should be. Right. They're protecting their brand.

[NBA on Prime Advertiser]

They.

[Simon Hunter]

They don't want to say anything that gets put on the, in the board and used against them, blah, blah, blah. But James is just so free and just not negative and just good vibes. Like he never says the wrong things, even when he's talking crazy. It's. It's great. Like he just, you never know where he's gonna go with it. So. Yeah, I, I just thought this was a Green Bay spot. We've talked this year, this Green Bay team, they're on a historical run. Right? They're I think the first team in like 20 years to be 05 as a seven point favorite against the spread. They've yet to cover the season as a seven point favorite. So the, the public's on the Giants. The pros are. They're drowning them. This is going to be a huge, huge bet. All the teaser, all the moneyline partly is this packers team because everyone's like me. They just. I can't see the packers losing three games in a row. So maybe I'll just avoid it now because like you said, Jamis could either lose this game by 30 or win this game outright if he has such a wild days passing the ball. Yeah, yeah.

[Chad Millman]

Such a wild card.

[Simon Hunter]

I just, I don't know if he has a weapons chad like in other places where he's done stuff. He's actually had guys on the outside that can make plays. He does not have that in this scenario. And he's going against a really good defensive front. So I'm still, I'm still on the packers, but I get it. I get where you're coming from. You want to be on the Giants and it's fun. I just, I can't, I can't do it.

[Chad Millman]

I just want to bet. Bet put us on Jameis. Like he's won us so much money over the years.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, we won Ben against him though.

[Chad Millman]

And then, and then, and then he's lost us so much money over the years. Last year we had a pretty good run of like betting on Jameis at the right time and betting against Jameis at the right time. And this just feels like a bet on Jameis and I can't, like, I'm kind of bummed that he stayed in the NFL because I think he'd be so good as a broadcaster, analyst, full time social media influencer, whatever it is. Oh, goodness. Simon. I'm just. This is going to be on the tv just to watch Jameis implode or blow up the packers, either way. All right, let's talk about Tampa Bay at Buffalo. I mentioned this the other day. I think we've underestimated how much Bucky Irving means to the Buccaneers because we've continued to want to bet on the Buccaneers and have bet the Buccaneers, including last week against the Patriots. So I looked it up because it's like it just. We believed so much in Baker ball. Have we leaned too much into that? The Buccaneers were running the ball 38% of the time with Bucky Irving. Now they're doing just 25% of the time. And that impacts everything. Right. They have fewer explosive 10 plus yard runs, but also it just changes the play action dynamic for Baker. It's much less effective and I think that's having an impact on the entire game. It's like when you hurt your toe and it hits the whole kinetic chain. I think that that is really a big issue for them. We were wondering why the wise guys might be all over the Bucks. I don't know all the reasons, but I look at this and it makes a little more sense to me right now.

[Simon Hunter]

Honestly. It sounds really simple. But this Bucks team, to me the big difference has been Baker doesn't. Hasn't scrambled in about three weeks now. And if you look back, he took a really bad shot in that win against the 49ers. He hasn't. He didn't have one rushing attempt against Detroit, not a single rushing attempt against the Saints. And same against New Orleans. And remember all those insane wins early in the year.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

So maybe that's what we're missing here is he sustained an injury. He doesn't want to be taking hits like that. Scrambled outside the pocket. And it's been a difference to their offense. You need that Baker magic for it to work for this team. So, you know, I. There are some stats too. We talked about this would be a spot refer Josh Allen. They just got embarrassed on the road as a huge favorite and it feels like it's a unique spot. Right. It's not often Josh Allen goes on the road as a favor and loses well by double digits. And I looked at it. It's. It's pretty alarming. He's after a loss like that. He's 6 and 3 against the spread, which isn't that drastic, but he's covering by 11 points per game in those matchups, so he tends to bounce back. Josh Allen, these Matchups. And, you know, if they have a game where they score 16 points or less in Josh Allen's career, the following game, he's 13 and 6 against the spread. So we've just seen time and time again, he tends to bounce back. I had tons of people send me trend numbers about Baker because they were agreeing with us about our love for Baker. That's why it's like, can we still get there? But I'm just alarmed that he has not run. That was something that really jumped out to me. It's like, is there just something we don't know? Because he's not looked the same since that 49ers game. And I thought, you know what? That's just football, right? You have lows, ups and downs. He's just not. I thought he'd maybe get right after that bye week. But you saw against New England, he didn't really run the ball. He didn't use his legs like he usually does. So, yeah, there's just those type of things jumped out to me. Obviously, if you want to hear some Baker stats as a dog, he's 154 against a spread in his career. We know Baker is just. Yeah, he covers as a dog. So I don't know what you want to do in this one. It's. It's a unique spot, right? It's Baker awful loss. Now as a dog on the road again, another stat, him as a dog in this exact spot. 177 against the spread when he's off a loss. Even better. Last five seasons, he's 12 and 3 on this exact spot.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, I want to bet Baker here. I know at five and a half the number just in my notes.

[Simon Hunter]

Are we worried about Baker? That's what I'm trying to get us here. Well, you're.

[Chad Millman]

You're making a good point. I did the research yesterday. I think they are a different team, even though without Bucky Irving, we're seeing that in the trends. It could be a combination of the lack of play action and Baker not running the ball because he could be injured. All of that seems to be missing from this Buccaneers team right now. To me, it's. It's not so much a bet on the Bills, it's only going to be a bet on the Bucks. And how comfortable can we get on this team? It just feels to me like.

[Simon Hunter]

So I can't convince you to back Josh Allen here. I gave you the Josh Allen stats. I mean, it just seems like. I know I don't trust. I just don't trust his Bills team. Either that's my issue.

[Chad Millman]

This defense is just. It's not very good.

[Simon Hunter]

I know. But if Baker's not Baker, can he really take advantage of an attack him? So it's a hard game for me where it's like I wanted to be on the Bucks. I thought I was going to be on the books Sunday if I was me on Tuesday. And I just, I, I have looked into it. I agree. It's. There's something missing with this book team. I really do think it's that Russian ability of Baker and just.

[Chad Millman]

It's one of those weird games. Yeah, it's one of those weird games where we. This would be a smash smart spot for us on a team that we almost always love to bet on a quarterback. We always love to bet. I don't know that we know enough yet. I think we need to keep looking into it. I haven't bet this game at all. I tried to be patient.

[Simon Hunter]

I've been trying to work people. Honestly, it's what I do. And like, I can't get anything, I can't get anything about if he's had an injury, if he's been resting on injury because they haven't put anything on the injury report either. So nothing's come out. So I don't know. But I just, when someone brought that up, I looked at it. I go, oh my God, I've not even noticed that. I not noticed because he gets sacked so much. I. In my mind I thought he's been running and scrambling, but he hasn't. He hasn't gained a yard in three games. That's.

[Chad Millman]

That's so weird. And you know, now that you think about it, like especially against the Patriots, there were a couple times where the pocket just cratered. That would have been.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, he had the lane, he had.

[Chad Millman]

The opening Baker escapes and he didn't. It just. He sort of just collapsed in the pocket. That's interesting. We got to keep talking about this one. I don't think we can commit to it one way or the other yet.

[Annabe Sofa Advertiser]

Tired of spills and stains on your sof? Wash away your worries with Anabe Annabe is the only machine washable sofa inside and out where designer quality meets budget friendly prices. That's right. Sofas start at just $699. Enjoy a no risk experience with pet friendly stain resistant and changeable slipcovers made with performance fabric Experience cloud like comfort with high resilience foam that's hypoallergenic and never needs fluffing. The sturdy steel frame ensures longevity and the modular pieces can be rearranged anytime. Shop washablesofas.com for early Black Friday savings up to 60% off site wide backed by a 30 day satisfaction guarantee. If you're not absolutely in love, send it back for a full refund. No return, shipping or restocking fees. Every penny back. Upgrade [e-mail] Offers are subject to change and certain restrictions may apply.

[PayPal Advertiser / Liberty Mutual Advertiser]

This podcast is sponsored by PayPal. Okay, let's talk holiday shopping. When you want to make the most of your Money, head to PayPal's app before you check out. They give you the flexibility to pay in four no fees, no interest. And this is big. Bigger than the 12 foot snowmen on your lawn right now. You can get 5% cash back when you pay later with PayPal. So whether it's the must have merch or for that signed jersey you've been eyeing, PayPal helps you make the most of your money this holiday. Save this offer in the PayPal app.

[Simon Hunter]

Expires 1231 see paypal.com promoterms subject to approval.

[PayPal Advertiser / Liberty Mutual Advertiser]

Learn more at paypal.com payin4paypal inc.nmls910457 Limu.

[Simon Hunter]

Amu and Doug here we have the.

[PayPal Advertiser / Liberty Mutual Advertiser]

Limu Emu in its natural habitat, helping people customize their car insurance and save hundreds with Liberty Mutual. Fascinating. It's accompanied by his natural ally, Doug.

[Simon Hunter]

Uh, Limu is that guy with the binoculars watching us.

[PayPal Advertiser / Liberty Mutual Advertiser]

Cut the camera. They see us.

[Simon Hunter]

Only pay for what you [e-mail] Liberty.

[Chad Millman]

Liberty Liberty Liberty Savings Fairy Underwritten by.

[Simon Hunter]

Liberty Mutual Insurance Company and affiliates excludes.

[Degree Cool Rush Advertiser]

Massachusetts Today's episode is brought to you by a scent that's made a legendary comeback. Degree Original Cool Rush. The OG is back and better than never. Cool Rush isn't just a scent, it's a movement fan favorite. It's the kind of fragrance that guys remember, ask for by name and rave about online. It's bold, fresh and delivers all day sweat protection with that cool, crisp vibe that made it a legend. Whether you're heading to the gym, the office, or just trying to stay fresh on a long day, Cool Rush has your back. It's the go to for millions and for good reason. So if you haven't tried it yet or if you've been waiting for a sign, this is it. Head to your local Walmart or Target and grab degree Cool Rush, the fan favorite scent from the world's number one antiperspirant brand.

[NBA on Prime Advertiser]

Hey Jason Timf here. The NBA on Prime is back tomorrow with another exciting Emirates NBA cup doubleheader first Bam. And a bio in the Heat take on Jalen Brunson in the Knicks. Then Steph Curry and the warriors square off against Wemby and the Spurs. If you're not a Prime member, just sign up for a 30 day free trial. Heat, Knicks, Warrior spurs Coverage starts at 6:30pm Eastern only on Prime. Restrictions apply. See Amazon.com Amazon prime for details.

[Chad Millman]

I want to bring up the Chargers and the Jags. We talked about the Jags the other day at plus three at Hard Rock it's moved down to two and a half, so we're seeing professionals come in on the Jags. I really left it in only because isn't this our week to fade the Chargers? Right. Where normally we'd want to say oh my God, the Chargers look great last week, let's bet him. But then we know we really should fade them. We talked about liking the Jags. I just wanted to know from your opinion, are you feeling strongly about the Jags? I am not feeling strongly about the Jags, but I could understand if you did and I would be persuadable. You know why, Simon? You know why I'm agreeable.

[Simon Hunter]

I think we both agree it's just about the number, right? I like at the three. I think we both kind of like taking the Jags of the dog here. But I just, maybe it's just the Trevor Lawrence thing. I just. I hate having money on them and I don't trust them. So at the three, I like it. But two and a half, I'm just, there's no way I'm gonna make people invest money into this game. And the Herbert side, I know a couple pros who've taken position on them in this game because they like to match with them in the sense that this Jaguars defense just, I mean went through an absolute ringer the week before. Historically these defenses fail the next week, right? If you have a defense that gives up 20 points or more, it's never good the following week and even more so, you know, a team like that, how do they react to it? A first year head coach, how does he react to giving up 29 points in the fourth quarter? Davis Mills the week before? Chad. So we have a, we have a lot of stuff we're been into here situationally that I don't love. And when you dive into all the trends and everything like that, it's historically a terrible spot for Trevor Lawrence and what isn't it?

[Chad Millman]

What isn't a terrible spot, Right, because.

[Simon Hunter]

He just his whole career has been that way. So yeah, I'm just very uneasy about it. But I both, I think we both agree it's like this is usually where we go against the Chargers, but the Joe Alt thing's kind of making a fuzzy for me where it's like, it's making me love the Jaguars. I'm trying to talk myself out of it. There's other games I should have my money in. Don't go too heavy on it too. Like we said, Hard Rock right now is minus two and a half. To me. That's Chargers line. If you want to take a position on like, I won't fault you, but I'm going to be on the Jags plus three. That just feels like the smarter side. But I just don't know how Herbert's going to be against the front and in a matchup that offensively I think, you know, if Trevor Lawrence can move the ball downfield, this should be great matchup. But you know, he might be down as number one, number two receiver again. Chad, it's, it's a big deal, right?

[Chad Millman]

Brian Thomas Jr. Might not be playing. Travis Hunter is out for the season now with a knee injury. Who could have seen a slightly built two way player not being able to make it through the season? That seems crazy to me.

[Simon Hunter]

But he's Ohtani, Chad.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, he's Ohtani. He's Ohtani. There is a lot of social media sleuthing going on. A lot of memes on Twitter of Liam Cohn just looking as disgusted as we are by Trevor Lawrence Duvall. The Internet, for all its failings sometimes is right. And you gotta wonder if all the rumblings about Liam Cohn just not being able to move on with Trevor Lawrence starts to become a reality. Is there a little bit of truth in the memes? That's what I'm asking.

[Simon Hunter]

I, I, again, it's just year one, so I just can't, I can't overreact too much to it. Yeah. If Trevor Lawrence doesn't grow and improve this offseason in this offense and next year is still doing these mistakes, I, I could see ownership taken Liam's side over Trevor Lawrence side. Like they've given Trevor enough time in years. You've seen his offense. It works in my opinion, like the run blocking, all of it. I think the offensive scheme works. I just don't know if the quarterback is the right piece.

[Chad Millman]

I wonder if he'd rather have Mac Jones right now.

[Simon Hunter]

Don't hate that. Get him on the cheap, right?

[Chad Millman]

He had him they had him and he left. Maybe he'd be the better option for this offense. Hey, listen, we're talking about Mac Jones. He's a quarterback in the NFC West. The two top teams in the NFC west are the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams. Simon, we're going to have a deep conversation about this one because the Los Angeles Rams are going to be our brass balls bet of the week. Presented by Hard Rock Bet.

[Simon Hunter]

You know what it takes.

[Degree Cool Rush Advertiser]

It takes brass balls, balls.

[Chad Millman]

I know we had a long conversation on Tuesday about Seattle, and I think we both have sort of come to the conclusion that we like the Rams here. For me, it was about some of the research I did on the matchups and the schemes despite Seattle's defensive prowess and how the Rams can take advantage of that. You got a lot of blowback from the wise guys. And this one might be, I'm not going to say bullying you, but effectively debating you, positioning you, changing your mind, moving you off your opinion. Tell me what you heard, why it changed for you. I will share with you some of what I've researched and why it changed for me. But we both came to that independently.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, I just, honestly, my motto like Seattle. And I like Seattle just the way they've been playing. I thought this would be a great matchup for them. But like you said, the more you dive into it, there's some weaknesses, the Seattle defense that we know the Rams will exploit. And it's a unique game in a matchup. And it's a, it's, I, I, I'm happy we have such strong opinions on it because it is probably the best game of the week. And early in the week I was like, am I really going to bet heavy on one side or the other in this game? Because it's such two really good teams. I mean, I think Evan had this amazing stat. It's the first time in NFL history we've had two teams match up week 10 or later that are both 77 against the spread and straight up matched up this late. So it's really unique where it's like two teams betters have loved, profited off heavily this season. Gotta pick a spot now. I thought most books would be split. It's, it's honestly really heavy, the money towards this Ram side and we've seen some three and a halfs pop up. So if you do like the Rams, I would grab it now. I do think it could get the three and a half by game time just because so much professional money is coming to the ramps here and it's really about McVeigh, right? In his career against Seattle, he's just done so well. And it's. It's. We always saw these divisional teams, these matchups. Certain teams just know how to play against certain defenses, and it doesn't matter that they had a regime change for Seattle. He still owned them since that change. So just McVeigh in his career, 12 and five against the spread against Seattle, and since 2019, he's 11 and two against the spread. So just interesting. McVeigh has just dominated this franchise for so long now. And with Stafford, I was like, okay, is there a bump with the Stafford? Because this is by far the best quarterback he's had in that run. He's 5, 0 straight up, 4 and 1 against the spread against Seattle, covering by almost 7 points per game. So Stafford just dominated this matchup. And, you know, I agree with you. I probably overrated this Seattle defense a little too much because they really have not faced a juggernaut path of quarterbacks. They've had an easy kind of go here, so I think this will be a true test for them. We're getting a great number with a ramp scene that's just playing insanely well. One last amazing stat, I saw Evan post again. I love stupid stats like this because it's just. When you really look into it, it's actually pretty smart since 2024 when the ramps have seven games and they commit three penalties or less in those seven games. The following game, they're 70 against the spread in that matchup, they had zero penalties last week.

[Chad Millman]

Why is that smart, though? What is that telling you? What's the correlation there?

[Simon Hunter]

That they're just playing sound football, which is like, you see all these other teams are super sloppy, right? Not like that. We joke. That Raiders game, the Raiders had nine penalties. You don't really win games like that, especially when you only score seven points. The flip side, the Rams are putting up 35 points, and against a divisional opponent, having zero penalties on the road, that's just really impressive to me. It just shows when McVeigh, you know, he gets these guys playing at a higher level and they're in sync like this, they just keep it rolling. So I just love that stack. It just shows this team is just totally in tune right now with everything. And, you know, like we've been saying, the Rams fluky, fluky loss against that Eagles team, and, you know, they could easily be the number one seed right, in the nfc. They've been playing, like, the best for sure.

[Chad Millman]

So a Couple other things to keep in mind. You just mentioned the money coming in on, on the Rams. The public is all over Seattle like this is a pros Joe's game. It is a, they are the public dog here. That's number one. Number two, you mentioned some softness in the Seahawks defense. Where they are worst and they're not bad at much, but where they are worst is defending against tight ends. And all of a sudden the Los Angeles Rams have become the highest tight end usage team.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, 13% in the NFL.

[Chad Millman]

They're going, they're going four deep sometimes on tight ends. So we've been seeing that and it's super exciting to watch, but it's also devastating if you've bet against the Rams. I don't want to be on the other side of the Rams and 13 personnel and Matthew Stafford against a team that has not been playing very well against tight ends. And in, in a game where something small like that is what the difference is going to be, right? It's going to be, you know, a tie game late and the Rams have the ball with 90 seconds left from their own 20 yard line and Matthew Stafford finds Parkinson down the seam for 35 yards and gets him into field goal range. Like that could easily happen. And that could be that weakness, could be the difference in the game. And I don't mind fading the public.

[Simon Hunter]

In this spot agreeing. Devonte Adams has not practiced this week, but he got interviewed. He basically said, like I'm, I'm going to be out there, I'm going to be playing. I'm not going to miss this game. So don't be worried if Devontae doesn't practice all week. I think he'll still play. Even I believe he has a bad hip, but I believe he'll still play.

[Chad Millman]

Los Angeles Rams Brassball's Bet of the Week presented by Hard Rock Bet Speaking of receivers who are injured and their status being quite questionable or debated, The San Francisco 49ers are at Arizona. Arizona is a three point dog. We liked Arizona on Tuesday. It was at two and a half. We wanted it to get to three. It did get to three. I don't know about you, I bet it at three. Marvin Harrison Jr. Is out with an appendectomy. I don't think that matters to me. This is, to me, this is about Jacoby Brissette and Trey McBride and we're just talking about tight ends and a Niners defense that cannot rush the passer right now and has at the center of its defense a new signal caller replacing Fred Warner, who's played well, but it's still different when you're playing against an all pro tight end caliber tight end like Trey McBride.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, I'm with you on the Cardinals. It's another game, though. Just like the Jags, or. I'm just betting this number I don't really feel that great about, so you might have more opinions on this one than me. I simply just took this number. Obviously, Harris News sucks like that. As much as you want to downplay it, he is their number one. He's a big, big target. Who with Brissette, seemed like he's been playing pretty well. So not ideal, but like you said, we're just playing the number here in the matchup. And I just. I can't have this 49ers team catching more than three points against anybody, let alone a divisional foe that can move the ball offensively. Like you said, train wreck. Start to that game against Seattle, they fought, played well throughout the game and moved the ball pretty well. So it's, It's. It's a good number, but, man, is this a gross game.

[Chad Millman]

Do you want to hear my appendectomy story?

[Simon Hunter]

Not really.

[Chad Millman]

The story's about how I was trying to close the NFL Preview at ESPN the Magazine and I wasn't feeling well. And for two days I stayed in the office, barely leaving because my boss at the time, it was the first NFL preview we were ever closing, and my boss was like. She was like, you don't look good, but we really need you. You're running this issue. We need you to be here to close it. I admit, like, under my desk. I had to be removed and taken by ambulance to the hospital for an emergency appendectomy, which I stayed in the hospital for 10 days after. Did you not know this? Yeah, because I was closing the NFL preview for ESPN the Magazine in 1998. But here's the kicker. Here's the kicker. After the surgery, we had, like, our reviews and my boss at the time, who I ended up quitting ESPN the Magazine because I just could not stand her. I just. She was one of the worst people I've ever worked with. Still to this day, horrible boss, stole every idea, would not give me any help with assignments, did not try to grow me in any particular way. In my review that year, she gave me the equivalent of a check minus in Disney grading rules for attendance, essentially at work. And I'm like, what do you mean? She goes, well, you know, you were gone for two weeks in June. I'm like, that was My honeymoon. I. I just started four weeks earlier, and everyone knew I was getting married. She's like. And then there was that time, like, in. In September where you were gone for, like, two and a half weeks. I'm like, when I had. When an ambulance came and took me out because I had an emergency appendectomy. The point of the story, Simon, I played through it.

[Simon Hunter]

Did you? Though it seems like the appendix won.

[Chad Millman]

I closed the issue.

[Simon Hunter]

It put you down for 10 days.

[Chad Millman]

I closed the issue. The point was, I closed the issue.

[Simon Hunter]

I had a buddy with basically the same thing, but unlike you, he was. It was college. He's boozing, drinking. He goes, I think something's wrong. Is the same thing where it's, like, right down, like, above the crotch, like below the stomach kind of.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

So basically, same thing as you, where you probably had, like, a sharp pain in that area.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

And he can't. He basically couldn't stand up. Right up. Party says he can't stand up. He's in so much pain. And I go, dude, you should go to a hospital if you're in that much pain. He goes, but I feel fine sitting here. It's just when I stand up, I can't stand up. And basically a buddy put him on his shoulder and carried him down the street to a local doctor that took.

[Chad Millman]

Him to the hospital. It doesn't sound like he was so committed to his job. He stayed at the office for two days in agony to close the NFL preview issue. We haven't even really talked about the time that I wrote a cover story for ESPN the Magazine after I had broken my back in a cab accident. Next time we'll get to that one. Baltimore at Cleveland. This one was Chad Choice when it was eight and a half. The number at Hard Rock is now down to seven and a half. You mentioned there's some lingering news or news about a knee issue with Lamar Jackson, but we were all over this before. I'm glad to hear that the wise guys are into it, too. Give me some feedback on what they were telling you. I have some thoughts on a very specific point that you and I discussed about this game the other day, but tell me what the wise guys were telling you and how you're feeling about this 48 hours. 48 hours later.

[Simon Hunter]

Well, like I said, it feels like. Not that we looked into it, but it's just a spot we both loved where they. I feel like most of them knew something was up with Lamar, that he was a little banged up from that game. And they were taking position on it because their view of it. If you're already getting a bangle, Lamar, and he does play, you're handicapping him because he's not gonna have the same rushing ability against one of the best defensive lines in all football. So the early line move hasn't shocked me. I am shocked, though. It has stuck at seven and a half. I thought this would be just like that Houston Tennessee line, where the books would hedge a little bit, right? Move it down to seven, maybe six and a half just in case Lamar is out in this game. So they must. Must be pretty positive, confident that Lamar does play, which I don't know how you can trust the Ravens right now. Like, I, I just. Anything Harbaugh says to me is just. I don't believe any of it now. Like, I'll believe it come Friday practice if he's with the first team. And, you know, that's reported by reporters, not the team itself. So, yeah, it's. I'm so glad we got the early line on Cleveland, but it's a. It's a tough game to try to handicap now because we really don't know if it's. Obviously, if it's not Lamar. I mean, we're elated. I would tell people to bet it now if you really think that, but I do think Lamar plays. I just. He's such a competitor. He's missed so much time. I just. Unless he's really, really banged up and he can't move, I can't see him missing this one. But for us, I wanted to play like a banged up Lamar. I mean, it's. It's a great, great matchup for Miles Garrett and the boys and just dive into this game more. We talked a little about it. It's. I'm not putting so much faith in Dylan Gabriel. I still think he's got issues, but I do think this Cleveland team better run the ball against his Ravens team, I don't think has fixed all of their issues. So.

[Chad Millman]

Yep.

[Simon Hunter]

Still love the numbers. Still love the matchup. It's just, what will this number end up being? Hopefully people grabbed the eight and a half when you gave it out.

[Chad Millman]

How do you feel about betting it at seven and a half?

[Simon Hunter]

I still bet it just because it's just the unknown a little more. I'm just. I don't want people to go too crazy because he does come back. This will definitely get back to eight, I think eight and a half. Unless the professionals really keep this down. I can't say it happens just Gonna be so much public money on this Ravens team. They're just one of the most beloved teams in football right now, especially by the betting public. They've just exactly what everyone predicted to happen with them has happened. Lamar even before he came back, even the backup, they've won it covered it feels like three games in a row here and they've totally flipped that division with a losing record. They're the big odds on favorite to win that division. So it's just I don't want people to invest too much here into this number just in case he does come back. But how can you not throw a little on if you did miss day and a half? They're a little here on the seven and a half on this Brown team. Just in case it is no Lamar, and this does move by another three or four points.

[Chad Millman]

We talked the other day about how much better the Browns are at home than on the road. So I did do a little research on it. The Browns at home since the beginning of last season when we really started to notice this Trend, give up 20 points per game at home, 29 points per game on the road. So 30% less at home. They also give up 30% fewer rushing yards at home than on the road. 95 versus 139. They also give up like 10% fewer passing yards. But being at home does make a difference. You know, we talk about all the time it could be the grass. It's obviously there's nuances.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, the weather.

[Chad Millman]

The weather certainly makes a difference. I also think like the noise. Those fans are still rabid and I think the dog pound matters. I just do like that it makes a difference for that team and I think the fans know it. So I like the. I like the Browns. They were Chad's choice, presented by Hard Rock Bet. Speaking of, let's do a quick message from our friends at Hard Rock bet. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock bet. It's that time of year when every day feels like a big game day. You've got pro football, college football, NBA, college hoops, hockey. It's all happening. And on Hard Rock Bet, there's always something to bet on. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet yet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a $5 bet. And if it hits, you get not only your winnings, but $150 in extra bonus bets. And if you're not sure what to place your first bet on Check out the Hard Rock Bet Stats Hub. It's loaded with trends, streaks and stats to help guide your picks. Numbers don't lie, and neither does the data in there. Here's one that stood out to me. Green Bay's Josh Jacobs has scored a touchdown in 13 straight games against NFC opponents. Check out the Stats Hub now. Get the edge and bet with confidence. The Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook app is the only legal sportsbook for whenever you're in Florida, and it's also live in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois and Colorado. Coming soon to more states too. Plus, Hard Rock Bet offers new promos every single day. So whenever you're listening, just open the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week, download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit payable in bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 and over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 18 in Indiana if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809-with-IT gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia there's nothing.

[Annabe Sofa Advertiser]

Like sinking into luxury. Annabe sofas combine ultimate comfort and design at an affordable price. Annabe has designed the only fully machine washable sofa from top to bottom. The stain resistant performance fabric, slipcovers and cloud like frame duvet can go straight into your wash. Perfect for anyone with kids, pets or anyone who loves an easy to clean spotless sofa. With a modular design and changeable slipcovers, you can customize your sofa to fit any space and style. Whether you need a single chair, loveseat or a luxuriously large sectional, Annabe has you covered. Visit washablesofas.com to upgrade your home. Sofas start at just $699 and right now get early access to Black Friday savings up to 60% off store wide with a 30 day money back guarantee. Shop [e-mail] Add a little to your life. Offers are subject to change and certain restrictions may apply.

[PayPal Advertiser / Liberty Mutual Advertiser]

This podcast is sponsored by PayPal. Okay, let's talk holiday shopping. When you want to make the most of your Money, head to PayPal's app before you check out. They give you the flexibility to pay in four no fees, no interest and this is big bigger than the 12 foot snowman on your lawn right now, you can get 5% cash back when you pay later with PayPal. So whether it's the must have merch or for that signed jersey you've been eyeing, PayPal helps you make the most of your money this holiday. Save this offer in the PayPal app expires 1231.

[Simon Hunter]

See paypal.com promoterms subject to approval.

[PayPal Advertiser / Liberty Mutual Advertiser]

Learn more at paypal.com payin4paypal inc.nmls910457.

[Simon Hunter]

And Doug here we have the Limu Emu.

[PayPal Advertiser / Liberty Mutual Advertiser]

In its natural habitat helping people customize their car insurance and save hundreds with Liberty Mutual. Fascinating. It's accompanied by his natural ally, Doug.

[Simon Hunter]

Uh, Limu is that guy with the binoculars watching us.

[PayPal Advertiser / Liberty Mutual Advertiser]

Cut the camera. They see us.

[Simon Hunter]

Only pay for what you [e-mail] Liberty Liberty Liberty Liberty Savings Fairy Underwritten by Liberty Mutual Insurance Co. Affiliates excludes Massachusetts.

[Degree Cool Rush Advertiser]

Today's episode is brought to you by a scent that's made a legendary comeback. Degree Original Cool Rush the OG is back and better than never. Cool Rush isn't just a scent, it's a movement fan favorite. It's the kind of fragrance that guys remember, ask for by name and rave about online. It's bold, fresh and delivers all day sweat protection with that cool, crisp vibe that made it a legend. Whether you're heading to the gym, the office or just trying to stay fresh on a long day, Cool Rush has your back. It's the go to for millions and for good reason. So if you haven't tried it yet, or if you've been waiting for a sign, this is it. Head to your local Walmart or Target and grab Degree Cool Rush, the fan favorite scent from the world's number one antiperspirant brand.

[NBA on Prime Advertiser]

Hey Jason, Tim Fear the NBA on prime is back tomorrow with another exciting Emirates NBA cup doubleheader. First Bam and Abayo in the Heat take on Jalen Brunson in the Knicks. Then Steph Curry and the warriors square off against Wemby and the Spurs. If you're not a Prime member, just sign up for a 30 day free trial. Heat Knicks Warrior spurs Coverage starts at 6:30pm Eastern only on Prime. Restrictions apply. See Amazon.com/Amazon prime for details.

[Chad Millman]

All right, Kansas City at Denver. Denver is now three and a half at Hard Rock. There's still a bunch of fours out there as well. This was almost almost your Simon says. We heard about it on sharp calls. J.K. dobbins probably not playing because of a foot injury. He May end up going on injured reserve. They've been very mom about it. Are you still there?

[Simon Hunter]

Still on it? I'm definitely leaking a little confidence here because I thought this would be all pros on this Broncos team, but I just don't think guys trust Bo Nix. But it's.

[Chad Millman]

I don't think so either.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, I mean, that's fair. He's just, he's regressed in a lot of ways. But I'm glad I saw a good champagne stat that gives me a little confidence at least. This is a good Sean Payton game where basically if his teams only convert one red zone trip in two consecutive games in his career, they are 142 straight up in that third game, 5 and 1 against the spread in his career. So take what you want from that. It's. It really looks like it's the type of thing where he just gets his offenses to bounce back. It's situationally after, you know, it's been a rough go. Like, I'll be the first to admit this, that Denver's game was atrocious. They should have won that game by 20 points or more and just Bonix gave them nothing. And they didn't trust him. Like they just were not letting them throw at certain points because they just did not trust them putting the ball downfield. So, you know, this is just an interesting spot. So just like the fact in the last decade, you know, Sean Payton 7. 0 in this spot with the Broncos, he's 2. 0 straight up and against the spread in this exact spot where he's basically had a really struggling offense and they bounced back in these games. So I don't know about you, it's just the Mahomes factor because Mahomes just, I looked at historically dominates the Broncos in these games. He's been just great divisionally on the road, but I just, I can't hear the fact how bad the Broncos have been. His whole career he's been on the Chief. So it's like I know Bo Nix is no different. Those quarterbacks, I'm. Maybe I'm overrating them still too much, but it just feels like a lot of points for this, this Chiefs team going against a really good defense where I have some questions still about this Chiefs defense. There's still some ways I think they have holes that teams have exploited and the biggest one would be passing downfield against them. So I know I, I just. That's why I didn't make it sounds. I just don't want to make people invest once again in this Broncos team. I have some other gross dogs I like better than this one, but I'm on it. I've taken a pretty large position on it at this point, but maybe I'll temper it as we head into the weekend. I won't be put too much in because just the thought of Bo Nix is making me sick.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, I feel like every time Bonix starts he's so amped up he could throw the ball through a wall. And they missed so many opportunities in those first 15. Scripted where Sean Payton and a lot of coaches are at their best. And it's usually calming for most quarterbacks and Bo Nicks look like he's, you know, ready to jump out of the stadium. And I also worry this defense without Pat Certain against the Chiefs, that's a different kind of test that they haven't really had since Certain was out. And so it's a much more difficult proposition for them. We don't love betting Mahomes as a favorite of more than three. I get it. I like Peyton in this spot. I get it. I agree with you.

[Simon Hunter]

We should say though it is Chiefs off of buy, which we have in the past. We just automatically bet it.

[Chad Millman]

Right.

[Simon Hunter]

But true. I know.

[Chad Millman]

I'm not gonna lie to you. I'm not bought in on Denver at all here. I have not been. Even the other day when you know it's at four and you're hammering it and.

[Simon Hunter]

Can I give you some defensive stats that might help a little?

[Chad Millman]

Okay, let's hear. Let's see.

[Simon Hunter]

It's just like, it's like I'm trying to find a reason there because I just, it's just this number. I just can't get over it. But the facility.

[Chad Millman]

Give me a reason.

[Simon Hunter]

Defensively they have 40 plus sacks and this season they're holding opponents on third down to less than 3% conversion rate. They're the only defense to do that since 1990 other than the 2, 000 bucks. You remember that team, right?

[Chad Millman]

So it's like covered that Super Bowl.

[Simon Hunter]

Nice. Yeah, it was a sick one. I, I just, I look at this and I'm just. Maybe I'm betting the defense here like that Houston game and I gotta stop thinking about Bo Nix. But we're going to need him to make plays. That's the hardest part here. It's like you're going to need them to show up. It's just brutal, brutal, brutal. So yeah, I don't know if I'm forcing to be one of our fives this week. I'm really going to be Like, Chad, you got to make. Got to take this one. It's. If it was four and a half, I probably could have got you there. But like you said, the Fours have come back down. The three and a half feels like it's going to be out. So I do like the Broncos, but there's other dogs I like better this week.

[Chad Millman]

Detroit at Philadelphia. You turned me around on this the other day. I bet the Eagles at two and a half. That is where the number is right now. It's not the best of the number, but it's still below 3. I still liked it. I reran my model because, you know, I got a model. I worked on it during the off season with my intern from Harvard's stats department. Not even kidding. And I think if you can give me a good team that came off of a tight win against a good team that just had a big win, I'm still going to get value on the good team off of the tight win. So I started to come around on the Eagles. You're saying from the wise guys that it seemed like it was split, but you kind of had me buy into the Eagles the other day when I think I was starting to lean towards the Lions.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, I. The hesitation, I feel like, is a lot of the wide guys are taking positions on the Lions because of all those crazy numbers and trends about golf in prime time at night and how good him and Campbell have been cut. They're like covering machines. I think they're like, sure. Something like 25, eight against the spread. It's just something insane in these night games. And then you factor in a stat we give out earlier in the year, right. When they blow teams out, they cover at an insane rate. They're like a 70 cover rate after they win by seven points or more the following game. So we know all this. We know what we're walking into. This is a really good team, the Lions. Like we said, it's about the number. So. Still like it? I mean, we. We talked on Tuesday. It was. There was a couple one and a half's out there. Yeah, I feel like as soon as the show was posted, they were gone. Right. That got immediately up to two and a half of basically every book. And Hard Rock was a. Hard Rock was the last one, though. Hard Rock held at the 2 for a while and they did eventually move to A3 and then immediately went down it. So there is a ton of resistance at the 3. I feel like for professionals here with the Lions, which I do get in matchup wise, like, I Said I don't know if the books are accounting for how good this defensive line now is for this Eagles team with the upgrade to the position because for about four weeks there we had just two or three guys. We had no rotation. So you saw last week having guys sub in and out. It's just fresh lugs. Is such a huge deal with these defensive fronts, how hard these guys run and work. And the biggest thing I guess would be, well, Eagles are on a short week. Right. They traveled, you know, from Green Bay to this game home I guess. But to me it's the same with the Lions. They were on the road against Washington and historically actually golf isn't great on back to back road games that are both outdoors which again, I know it's stupid stats but all the stats for him are really dominant indoors. Like it's insane. So we got aggressive Charles Weekend people. It's. He is a different and not as good outdoors and matchup wise. I just keep going back to this Eagles offense. As much as they've struggled, this Detroit team has so many injuries. Like this is the exact type of defense you'd want to face.

[Chad Millman]

Yes.

[Simon Hunter]

For an Eagles team that needs to get right. So I expect after a week filled with drama. I don't know if you saw all the AJ Brown stuff once again, but oh yeah, basically was for the first time honest. Which felt good to hear what it actually is going on rather than like these news reporters dictating how he's feeling through his Instagram, which is just shows a level of sports media reporting right now.

[Chad Millman]

If that's what we're going off, don't impugn the media. This isn't, this isn't about how bad the media is. Although if you watch, you know, social media, boy, they ask a lot of stupid questions in, in open locker rooms and press conferences.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, there you go, Chad. So I just. He basically said it's him and Jalen have no issues. Jalen's playing well. He's doing what's being asked of him. He's got no problems with the oc. He's doing what's being asked of him. So that leaves one person he's got issues with and that's a big deal. It's Sirianni. So we'll see what happens. Basically that it came out that him Siriani had a call in that fourth down playing hurts and AJ went rogue and just said it's. It's going to you no matter what go deep. So there's a ton of drama right now.

[Chad Millman]

You Mean, a couple weeks ago against the Bucks, was it. Is that what you're talking about?

[Simon Hunter]

No, last week.

[Chad Millman]

Last week, I don't remember the play.

[Simon Hunter]

It was fourth. It was fourth down for our lives. The Eagles should have either punted or kicked a field goal against Green Bay and they went for it. You don't remember this? 4th and like, it was like 4th and 11 or something crazy.

[Chad Millman]

Maybe I went to bed at this point.

[Simon Hunter]

Well, he took a deep shot to AJ and it was incomplete. And they left basically 30 seconds left for Green Bay to maybe tie with a field goal to end the game. So it was just. People were like, what the hell? Why would Sierra call that play? And he basically was just like, I didn't call that. They. They checked out. So there is a ton of drama. And I get why people are freaking out about this Eagles team, but just looking at the matchup on the field, I just love this matchup for this Eagles team. And the public's playing into a little bit. Like you said, the Lions, they're getting all the money, all the tickets. Right now they are heavily a public dog. And the month the line is moving against them, like I said, it's. It's hit three at a couple books. So if it touches three come Sunday, I will feel much better about our Eagles position. That means some real pro money is coming again on the two and a half, which most people listening, that's what they're taking on because right now, all the pro money came in on the one and a half. So love the Eagles here, but obviously, like Chad said, we wish we gave out the best of the number.

[Chad Millman]

You know what? One team. I don't worry about when there's a lot of drama.

[Simon Hunter]

Who?

[Chad Millman]

The Eagles?

[Simon Hunter]

Philly Justice.

[Chad Millman]

Welcome to Philly, bitch. There's always drama. Like, there has been drama. I think Nick Sirianni attracts the drama. I think people want to like him, not like him. I don't think he cares. I think he says whatever is on his mind. I think he likes to be partly trolling and enjoys it. And I think the Eagles have the kind of personality that the Bears had in the 80s and the Cowboys had in the 90s. Like, they're just these teams where there's big personalities, a huge amount of talent, and there's always going to be some kind of turmoil in that locker room, and I don't think it matters. Like, I. I just don't like that's. It's all noise to me and it's funny. What's that?

[Simon Hunter]

Sirianni he is John Madden. So they put up the stat. The only other quarterback that more wins through the first five seasons in NFL history, percentage wise, John Madden. And I thought about that comparison. It feels so right. That man joined a team of crazy drama. Raiders team just ahead cases. And no one took him serious for about five years even though he was leading the league in one percentage. So I, I'm one of those people. I hated Sirianni. I just hated the way he handled the media, the way he talks to the fans, all that. But all he does is win and you got to respect it. And like you said, he, he seems like he thrives when there's tons of in house drama. So you're right. Maybe I'm overreacting too much. So I just. There's so much affiliate right now. I can't, can't get over how bad it is.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, I mean you're, you're in the middle of the white noise. You can't get away from it. Where I'm just seeing it as funny. And it's the same story every single week and every single year with this team and this team. Honestly I know they're not being nearly as effective, but there's something about their lack of effectiveness that to me I'm only watching Jalen hurts and Jalen hurts when he's on the field. Doesn't seem bothered by the lack of effectiveness he has in the past. This year it seems like the lack of effectiveness is almost by choice where he's just making the right calls and doing the right things and doing what needs to be won and not trying to do things to make sort of dramatic plays for lack of a better term. And so I'm only watching him and he's just, he's unbothered.

[Simon Hunter]

It's fair. But like last year I had a sneaky. I guess it was sneaky because I gave him out heading the year. But I was just all in on that Eagles team to win Super Bowl. Where this year I just have so many questions. Where last year I did not like I had one big question. It was about that defense. And after the bye week they got it right. The Eagles after their bye week the defense looked amazing but the offense left left a lot to the imagination. So yeah, this is like I said, this is a perfect spot for this Eagles offense to get right against a banged up Lions defense.

[Chad Millman]

Let's talk about that crazy Las Vegas Raiders plus three and a half Simon says against the Dallas Cowboys on Monday night. You got to want this. You got to. You really got to want it. Explain yourself. Simon Hunter on the Las Vegas Raiders.

[Simon Hunter]

I still love it. The pushback I got for people, the pros I have talked about when is that Cowboys did get people back to their defense that are coming off into reserve and you know, could that be a big upgrade for them? Sure. But my argument them is it's like trying to fix a hole in a sinking ship with a truly a band aid. Like they're, they have so many issues. Their top corner, Bland has no legs anymore. He has no speed. Like something that made him so special from just having a couple injuries, he's lost it. So I, I just love this match for this Raiders offense wise. I just think this is the perfect team to match up for them. And defensively, you know, you've seen the Cowboys have struggled this year. It's when there's facing against a good pass rush. So to me, Max Crosby, you know, I, I don't want to give too much credence to podcast people but because you know, every week I'm sure he might go on his pockets and stuff, but I saw this week he's basically playing all these clips from people in the media, trashing them, saying how bad he's been and how that loss was on him like he did nothing in that Denver game and they can't stop the run, everything like that. And I just love that type of thing for him where he's just going to be a mental case in this game. So it's, it's shocking to me that there's no pros on this Raiders team yet. But like I said, maybe Sunday morning chat I'll have more guys join me, but it's just because it's the Monday game, I feel like it's either been from the pro side at least they're taking the Cowboys or nothing at all at this point.

[Chad Millman]

All right, we got a lot to discuss.

[Simon Hunter]

Well, you got a couple games you missed that I like.

[Chad Millman]

Oh, tell me what I miss.

[Simon Hunter]

Where are we at with this Panthers team? I told you, I got a lot of calls about it.

[Chad Millman]

You know what's funny?

[Simon Hunter]

Are we missing it here?

[Chad Millman]

I wonder if we are too. I was actually just scrolling through because I was looking ahead to our underdog parlay and the Panthers jumped out as a team that we would want to put in as the underdog parlay. And obviously I've got trepidation because of what's happened with Bryce Young the past couple weeks. He just hasn't looked good. But I do think, I think there's Much more systemic issues with the Falcons than with the Panthers.

[Simon Hunter]

To be catching three and a half. That's. I feel like we both agree on that. So many points for a Falcon that has so many issues.

[Chad Millman]

Speaking of social media, there was a clip the other day, I think I saw it yesterday on the X platform where Michael Penix was asked about who he leans on for support when things aren't going well and who gives him advice. He talked about his fiance and his high school coach, the people he didn't mention in his ears, sort of that are helping coach him up. Raheem Morris and Zach Robinson, his offensive coordinator and his head coach. And I do think we're seeing some of this on the field where his performance has not been where it should be. But how much of that is on the coaching and how much of that is on the play calling? So I do think that there's probably, for lack of a better term, better vibes in Carolina. I just don't know. I guess, I guess at the hook, yeah, we're taking Carolina. That's really what it is.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. And we didn't really even talk about, which was a mistake on my part. Atlanta is coming off an overtime game in an international. This has never happened in the history of football. Usually it's happened five times. All those teams had bye weeks. This is the first time ever a team has played an overtime game internationally. You come home to play the game. So there's. There's that part of it and you know, the, The Pennix part. You know, like you. Like we said, it's just inconsistent. And that's a lot of points for him to be catching in a divisional matchup where the Panthers have surprisingly owned the Falcons these last few times they've played. So, yeah, I just want to make sure I brought this one up. Just don't appeal to be shocked if we do end up taking this one on Sunday. It's. It's a game I've been into. I like the Panthers here and it's definitely was a miss on my part. I should trust my model, which had a two and a half. I just, I couldn't get what the books are doing. You're hanging this number. But I do think this comes down to 3. Is more professionals coming and bet the Spanish side. So.

[Chad Millman]

All right, I'm into that. I'm into that because to be honest, I think we were struggling to find five that we loved. Not even like agreed on just like five games that we were really in love with. So I could see that and Then.

[Simon Hunter]

Before we go, just going to throw two games. Just. I, I'm line moving while we're doing the show live. Tampa has moved to plus six at a couple books.

[Chad Millman]

Jesus.

[Simon Hunter]

So yep, that's. That's happening as we speak. And the Bears are shifting to two and a half. So yeah, we've talked about a little bit. We both. I feel like we're trying not to but we both are liking on the Bears at plus three. That's just.

[Chad Millman]

And this was a three and a half. This was at three and a half by the way, last night. So it. To me it's about.

[Simon Hunter]

We don't know because we're doing the show right now, but it's two and a half everywhere now.

[Chad Millman]

I do not like the Bears at two and a half.

[Simon Hunter]

No, no, no, no.

[Chad Millman]

I like.

[Simon Hunter]

I just, I'm bringing up for people if they want to grab the Bears. I'd grab the three if you can before it moves.

[Chad Millman]

That game was at three and a half. All right, well that the Vikings at two and a half might be an interesting play on Sunday.

[Simon Hunter]

Okay.

[Chad Millman]

I keep thinking about the Bears keep coming back against really bad teams. But like.

[Simon Hunter]

Well, Caleb against the NFC north. Right.

[Chad Millman]

Can I invest in J.J. mcCarthy? You know that's just. It's a really tricky one in his career.

[Simon Hunter]

Right. Against NFC north and it was.

[Chad Millman]

I do like Carolina. All right, so let's, let's take a pause here for a sec because I want to recap. Cincinnati plus five and a half is a game we're both going to be on Houston minus six and a half. The Bucks are now a plus six. That's scary. I'm glad we really haven't bet that. We know we like the Rams plus three. We know we like minus three. I mean minus three. We know we like Cleveland plus seven and a half. Plus eight. Plus eight and a half. We think we like Philly minus two and a half. I don't love the Raiders, but I do like the Panthers a lot.

[Simon Hunter]

I get it. The Raiders are tough, man. It's tough.

[Chad Millman]

Raiders are tough.

[Simon Hunter]

Got to keep fading. This Dallas team is a big favorite. It's been profitable this year fading them.

[Chad Millman]

So we got some decisions to make on Sunday. Give me your biggest bets right now. It sounds like Panthers might actually be in there.

[Simon Hunter]

Pull up those pants and be a man. They're getting there. Like, honestly, I really took a heavy position on Cleveland like we talked about. I. I really thought not. Not that that number was going to come steaming down because of what we were talking about. But got very lucky that I bet it before all the Lamar news still look at seven plus seven and a half. As long as it's above the seven. Rams keep hitting it like I got tons on two and a half. Vaton on minus three. If it gets to minus three and a half, I'm not going to be that invested into it. It's all about the number here. So if it stays on the three, I, I, I really think that'll be one of my bigger bets come Sunday. And I'm probably going to get there, probably going to get there on this Eagles team. I just right now I haven't taken too big of a position, but it's because I thought the one and a half would pop again. So I'm going to try to be patient on that one. But it seems like it keeps getting to the three. It's not going the way I want it to, so I might just have to suck it up and just take the two and a half on this Eagles team.

[Chad Millman]

All right, let's do a three team parlay for underdogs.

[Simon Hunter]

My dog likes your dog. Your dog likes my dog.

[Chad Millman]

I would do Carolina.

[Simon Hunter]

Gotta do Cincy.

[Chad Millman]

Cincinnati. Yep, that was on my list.

[Simon Hunter]

Plus 200. Should we do Cardinals?

[Chad Millman]

Well, we didn't talk about the Cardinals. No, we did, briefly. I know, I just for the fun.

[Simon Hunter]

I'm not crazy about it, but I'm like, it's either them or the Jacks. These are good home dogs.

[Chad Millman]

Let's do the Cardinals. All right, so three team parlay. Carolina, Arizona and Cincinnati favorite parlay.

[Simon Hunter]

Gotta go. Rams.

[Chad Millman]

Rams. Ravens.

[Simon Hunter]

Ravens. Houston.

[Chad Millman]

Houston.

[Simon Hunter]

Green Bay.

[Chad Millman]

Green Bay.

[Simon Hunter]

I mean, it's tough, but it's, it'd bring the juice down for us a little bit. Philly.

[Chad Millman]

I was looking at Philly. It feels like we could probably avoid that anxiety a little bit, can't we?

[Simon Hunter]

What? Eagles? Yeah, speak for yourself.

[Chad Millman]

All right, fine. Let's do Philly. Let's do Philly. All right, Sharp versus square. You won last week.

[Simon Hunter]

You had dominating you. Chad, you got to get together, brother.

[Chad Millman]

You had Dolphins plus nine and a half.

[Simon Hunter]

I gotta go with my guys, I guess. Give me Panthers plus three and a half.

[Chad Millman]

All right, then I will take. Give me Houston.

[Simon Hunter]

Houston.

[Chad Millman]

This has been Sharper Square, part of the volume podcast network will be back for more Sharper Square on YouTube on Sunday morning as the eavesdrop on an intimate conversation between me and Simon in which we'll make utterly painful human decisions in a total panic that we will regret the rest of the day. We'll be back on Sharper Square YouTube Sunday night 7:30ish. To recap all of that misery, watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like the video, subscribe to the channel. Also downloads from Spotify, Apple Pods. Wherever you get your pods, rate, review, subscribe, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.

[Simon Hunter]

Hey, let's be careful.

[Chad Millman]

ABC Wednesday. It's the CMA Awards live. That's what I'm talking about. With performances by Lainey Wilson, Kelsey Ballerini, Zach Topp, Riley Green, Ella Langley, Kenny.

[Simon Hunter]

Chesney, Megan Maloney, Brandi Carlisle and the.

[Chad Millman]

Hottest collabs, Miranda Lambert and Chris Stapleton, Jabuzzi and Steven Wilson Jr. Big X the Plug featuring Liv Combs. It's country music's biggest night hosted by your girl, Lainey Wilson. The CMA Awards live Wednesday, 8, 7.

[Simon Hunter]

Central on ABC and next day on Hulu.

[Degree Cool Rush Advertiser]

Today's episode is brought to you by a scent that's made a legendary comeback. Degree Original Cool Rush. The OG is back and better than ever. Cool Rush isn't just a scent. It's a movement. The kind of fragrance that millions of guys ask for by name. It's bold, fresh and delivers all day sweat protection with that cool, crisp vibe that made it a legend. Whether you're heading to the gym, the office, or just trying to stay fresh on a long day, Cool Rush has your back. So if you haven't tried it yet, head to your local Walmart and Grab Degree Cool Rush, the fan favorite scent from the world's 1 antiperspirant brand.

[PayPal Advertiser / Liberty Mutual Advertiser]

Running a business is hard enough. Don't make it harder with a dozen.

[Simon Hunter]

Apps that don't talk to each other.

[PayPal Advertiser / Liberty Mutual Advertiser]

One for sales, another for inventory. A separate one for accounting. That's software overload.

[Simon Hunter]

Odoo is the all in one platform.

[PayPal Advertiser / Liberty Mutual Advertiser]

That replaces them all. CRM, accounting, inventory, e commerce, hr. Fully integrated, easy to use and built to grow with your business. Thousands have already made the switch.

[Simon Hunter]

Why not you try Odoo for free at O-O-O.com that's odoo.com you know what.

[Chad Millman]

A girl's best friend is not diamonds her lawyers.

[Degree Cool Rush Advertiser]

From executive producer Ryan Murphy come a fiery new legal drama.

[Simon Hunter]

It's our own boutique women representing women.

[Degree Cool Rush Advertiser]

You can't afford to miss.

[Annabe Sofa Advertiser]

Make it ring.

[Chad Millman]

Showtime ladies.

[Annabe Sofa Advertiser]

Stand up straight then breeze into that.

[Chad Millman]

Room like a storm no one saw coming.

[Degree Cool Rush Advertiser]

Hulu Original Series All's fair now streaming on Hulu and Hulu on Disney for bundle subscribers terms apply.

[Simon Hunter]

What a matchup.

[Degree Cool Rush Advertiser]

We got y'.

[Simon Hunter]

All. This is that classic HBCU vibe. Non stop action. The band is rocking and the crowd lit chant. Echo drum beat. Everybody showing that school pride. Game like this.

[Degree Cool Rush Advertiser]

Yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

It calls for an ice cold Coca Cola. Ah, Crisp and refreshing.

[Degree Cool Rush Advertiser]

That's a game changer right there.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, that taste always hits the right note.

[Degree Cool Rush Advertiser]

Just like the band at halftime.

[Simon Hunter]

And just like that, we're back at it. Passionate fans, school colors everywhere. And in ice cold Coca Cola. That's a winning combo no matter the sport, no matter the yard. Everybody knows fan work is thirsty work. So grab a Coca Cola and keep that HBCU pride going. This is an I heart podcast.