Sharp or Square: SHARP NFL BETS Week 11

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: November 13, 2025
Episode Theme:
The episode is a classic “sharper/square” faceoff: Chad (industry analyst and host) and Simon (pro sports bettor) comb through Week 11’s NFL card, breaking down which bets are “sharp” (favored by professionals/wiseguys) and which are “square” (public consensus, casual bettors). They debate games, share pro betting insights, dig deeply into numbers, and argue about where the real edges might be in the week’s slate. Listeners get contest picks, moneyline parlay ideas, survivor pool insights, and deep-dives into specific sides—packed with stats, trends, and sometimes a vibe check.

1. Episode Highlights & Main Theme

• Purpose: Guide listeners toward the best (sharpest) NFL bets for Week 11, cutting through noise and public misconceptions.
• Method: Both hosts use professional sources, sharp call-ins, and their own modeling to sort through contested lines. They react in real time to market moves, sharp/public splits, and injury news, with special attention to the biggest games.

2. Key Discussion Points & Insights

A. “Sharp Call” — Wiseguy Market Pulse

[04:47]

• Simon reports heavy pro interest and pushback on key games:
  • Rams: Pros love this spot, moved Simon off his initial Seahawks lean.
  • Panthers: Unexpected sharp love; pros see value even with Panthers' struggles.
  • Bills-Bucs: Many pros on the Bills, though Chad leans Bucs. Number (5.5) is holding because of this pro support.
  • Cleveland: Heavy agreement with pros; early bet at +8.5 loved, especially with Lamar Jackson injury news.
  • Denver: Pure pro’s side; not a surprise, wiseguys like the number.
  • Lions-Eagles: Number bounces between 2.5 and 3, indicating pro action on both sides.
  • Raiders: Simon thought pros would love it, but he feels lonely; only a few are on this side.

B. Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

[07:23, 08:53]

• Line: Hovering at 5.5, with some juice implying possible move to 6.
• Chad’s angle: Bengals’ offense (with Joe Flacco) superior to the Steelers’ depleted secondary.
  • “This Bengals offense can be exceptional, and right now the Steelers secondary is sus. How do they defend that?” [08:29]
• Simon’s take: A fishy line. Lack of faith in Zach Taylor post-bye (1-4 ATS), but sees value over a key number (>3).
  • “Something just seems off. I can't believe we're getting two free points with the Bengals.” [10:11]
  • Lean: Bet Bengals, not a top play but likely a contest candidate.

C. Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans

[13:43]

• Line: Crosses below key number 7 due to QB injury uncertainty (CJ Stroud out, Davis Mills likely starts).
• Both: Bet Texans at -6.5 for defense vs. weak Titans offense.
  • Chad: “I think they might only need to score one touchdown to cover.” [13:49]
• Simon: Warns the pros are actually heavy on Titans due to public joining and backup QB in play. Market could keep dropping if Stroud is ruled out for sure, but books seem comfortable under 7.

D. Green Bay Packers at New York Giants

[16:27, 17:36]

• Discussion about Jameis Winston: The wild-card factor; big personality, high-variance, emotional rollercoaster.
• Simon: Leans Packers due to Giants’ lack of weapons, but the market’s memory of Packers’ bad ATS results as favorites makes him wary of everyone loading up on Green Bay teasers/moneylines.
• Chad: “Jameis is your type of QB… I just want to bet put us on Jameis… he’s won us so much money, and lost us so much money over the years!” [20:24]

E. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills

[22:15]

• Bills pros vs. Bucs public: Many pros on Bills, but Chad now questions Bucs (Bucky Irving’s absence & Baker’s lack of mobility changes everything).
  • “We believed in Baker ball. Have we leaned too much into that?” [22:01]
  • “Baker hasn’t scrambled in about three weeks… Is there just something we don’t know?” [22:43]
• Simon: Notes Josh Allen’s big bounce-back stats as a favorite after losses, but both are now hesitant to commit; want to see injury reports.

F. Chargers at Jaguars

[30:26]

• Line: Moved from Jags +3 to +2.5, pros coming in on Jaguars but not a strong conviction.
• Simon: Only liked it at +3, wary with Trevor Lawrence, especially as Jags had a “ringer” of a defensive outing last week (teams usually regress after), possibly down key WRs.
  • “Situationally, terrible spot for Trevor Lawrence… but this is usually where we go against the Chargers.” [31:09]

G. Seahawks at Rams — “Brass Balls Bet of the Week”

[35:04, 35:52]

• Shifted from early Seattle support to Rams sharp side after pro pushback and analytic review.
• Simon: “McVay owns Seattle: 12-5 ATS vs. Seahawks, 11-2 since ‘19, Stafford 5-0 SU in this matchup.” [37:53]
  • Rams have been disciplined (zero penalties last week). Market is moving hard Rams, public is on Seattle.
  • “In matchups like this, it comes down to little things—tight ends, sound football, discipline.”

H. San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals

[40:54]

• Line: Moves up to 3; both lean Cardinals with Brissett and McBride in a strong matchup vs. a Niners defense unable to rush the passer. Marvin Harrison Jr. out, but not a dealbreaker.

I. Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens

[45:20, 46:38, 48:24]

• Both grabbed Browns +8.5 early, thankful with Lamar injury rumors now spreading.
  • Market down to 7.5 but they’d still take Browns. Home/road splits for Browns defense heavily favor Cleveland at home—a genuine edge.
  • “Cleveland at home since last season: gives up 20 points/game at home, 29 on road. They are much, much better at home.” [49:14]

J. Broncos at Chiefs

[55:34]

• Line: 3.5 at time of record, with some 4s in market.
• Simon: Initially liked Broncos as a pro-side, citing Sean Payton bounce-back trend, but admits Bo Nix’s limitations make him nervous. Still putting some on it, not his biggest dog.
  • “Maybe I’m betting the defense… It’s just brutal. But I have other gross dogs I like better this week.” [59:46]
• Chad: Not convinced, uneasy with Bo Nix and byes favoring Mahomes historically.

K. Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions

[60:17]

• Line: 2.5 (sometimes 3), heavily debated by sharps on both sides.
• Chad: Model gives edge to Eagles coming off a close win vs a team coming off a big win (Lion).
  • “If you give me a good team off a tight win against a team that just had a big win, I still get value.” [61:10]
• Simon: Lions have public on their side, Eagles have quietly improved defensive rotation, weather, and home/road splits matter. Drama around Eagles is mostly noise, but line movement and injuries favor Eagles.
  • “I just love this matchup for this Eagles team.” [63:36]

L. Raiders vs Cowboys

[68:30]

• Simon’s unpopular sharp play: Raiders +3.5.
  • “It’s like fixing a sinking ship with a bandaid. Cowboys secondary battered. I just love the matchup.” [68:48]

M. Panthers at Falcons “Missed Opportunity”

[70:21]

• Simon: Admits umbrella sharps are on the Panthers at +3.5. Factors: Falcons coming off international OT game (unique fatigue spot), Michael Penix (ATL QB) performance variables. Both agree Panthers should be considered at this number.

N. Bears vs. Vikings (Line Moves Live)

[73:04]

• Line drops from 3.5 to 2.5 while recording, reinforcing the speed of market moves for underdog value.
• Chad: “I do not like the Bears at two and a half.” [73:43]

3. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Jameis Winston’s volatility:

  • Chad: “Jameis is your type of QB, dude… the full experience… the oh, no throws, the oh, yes throws, the holy shit throws!” [18:00]

• On McVay owning Seahawks:

  • Simon: “12 and 5 against the spread… and since 2019 he’s 11 and 2 against the spread, Stafford’s 5-0 against Seattle.” [37:53]

• On Baker Mayfield’s recent play:

  • Simon: “He hasn’t scrambled in about three weeks… He didn’t use his legs like he usually does. Maybe he’s playing hurt.” [22:43]

• On Browns as a home team:

  • Chad: “The Browns at home… 30% less points, 30% fewer rushing yards, 10% fewer passing yards… It matters!” [49:14]

• On Eagles drama:

  • Chad: “There’s always drama. I think Nick Sirianni attracts the drama… but the Eagles have these big personalities, huge amount of talent, always going to be some kind of turmoil… and I don’t think it matters.” [65:39]

• Simon’s sharp motto:

  • “Don’t seek comfort. If you want special outcomes, you gotta be comfortable being uncomfortable.” [12:11]

4. Timestamps for Important Segments

• Sharp Call Market Reactions: [04:47]
• Bengals at Steelers Analysis: [07:23], [08:53]
• Texans at Titans (Pro/Sharp Spilt): [13:43]
• Packers-Giants & Jameis Riff: [16:27], [17:36]
• Buccaneers at Bills Injury Impact: [22:15]
• Jags-Chargers, Depleted Offenses: [30:26]
• Brass Balls Bet: Seahawks at Rams: [35:04, 35:52]
• Niners-Cardinals & Appendectomy Anecdote: [40:54], [42:49]
• Cleveland-Baltimore & Home Split Deep Dive: [45:20], [46:38], [49:14]
• Chiefs at Broncos (Uncomfortable Dog): [55:34]
• Eagles at Lions (Drama, Trends, Modeling): [60:17], [61:10], [65:39]
• Raiders “Lone Sharp” Play: [68:30]
• Panthers-Falcons (Missed by the Market): [70:21]
• Live Market Moves: Bears-Vikings: [73:04]
• Recap of Best Bets & Contest Lean: [74:15+]
• Best Bets & Underdog/Favorite Parlay: [76:04]
• Sharp vs. Square Picks: [77:30]

5. Summary of “Best Bets”, Underdog & Favorite Parlays

Most Discussed/Agreed Bets:

• Rams -3 (vs. Seahawks): Pros, stats, and McVay’s dominance.
• Bengals +5.5 (at Steelers): Value above key number with Flacco.
• Texans -6.5 (at Titans): Defensive edge vs. Titans offense, despite sharp vs. public split.
• Browns +7.5/+8.5 (at Ravens): Defensive home advantages, injury value.
• Eagles -2.5 (vs. Lions): Modeling and matchup edges, drama dismissed.
• Panthers +3.5 (vs. Falcons): Market error, sharp love for the hook.
• Raiders +3.5 (vs. Cowboys): Unpopular, but matchup-based lone wolf side.
• Broncos +3.5/+4 (vs. Chiefs): Market dog, more a defensive handicap.

Underdog Parlay:

• Carolina Panthers
• Arizona Cardinals
• Cincinnati Bengals

Favorite Parlay:

• Rams
• Ravens
• Texans
• Green Bay
• Eagles

6. Final Words & Tone

The episode is energetic and always on the edge between sharp-nerd quant analysis and tongue-in-cheek, exasperated “NFL is weird” humor. Both hosts balance numbers and “feel,” never afraid to admit when they’re unsure—and always urging listeners to value the number and the process over raw gut or media narratives.
The recurring refrain: “Find comfort in the uncomfortable. That’s where edges are.”
Listeners finish knowing the pro side for every big NFL Week 11 line—and the psychology behind each lean.

Final Sign-Off:
Catch Chad and Simon on Sunday for panicked last-minute pick locking, and Sunday night for the post-mortem, heavy on laughs, regrets, and wisdom.
“Love you. Hey, let’s be careful out there!”