Sharp or Square – NFL Week 12 Betting Breakdown

Podcast: Sharp or Square (iHeartPodcasts and The Volume)
Episode Date: November 20, 2025
Hosts: Chad Norman & Simon Hunter
Theme: Deep-dive analysis and sharp/square betting breakdowns for pivotal NFL Week 12 matchups, with candid advice on lines, market movement, and which side the wiseguys are taking.

Episode Overview

Chad Norman and pro bettor Simon Hunter sift through Week 12’s NFL slate, assessing which bets are genuinely “sharp” and worth your bankroll, and which sides are “square”—likely favored by public money and less savvy bettors. They focus on key matchups including Eagles-Cowboys, Bucs-Rams, Vikings-Packers, Colts-Chiefs, Giants-Lions, and more, while noting market movement, professional money, injuries, and angles that matter most for betters looking to gain an edge.

Key Discussion Points

1. General Approach to the Week

Audio Callout: Chad and Simon explain the "sharp vs. square" mentality, sifting public picks from professional angles and sharing where the true value lies.
Tone: Straight-shooter, data-savvy, occasionally self-deprecating—especially as they commiserate over audio mishaps (“I am getting my leaves done... It is late fall here in the Northeast.” – Simon, 12:46).

2. Sharp Calls: What the Wiseguys Are Really On

(05:37 – 08:30)

Simon summarizes where the pro money is landing, often against public sentiment.

Hot Spots:

Houston +6 at Buffalo
Simon: “I’m on the Bills, they love Houston tonight… I just can’t get there. I can’t trust Davis Mills with my money again.” (06:07)
Chad: “I’m definitely going to be on Houston at plus six. I love this defense… I feel like I’m looking at a Bills team that just had a miracle game.” (06:30)
Giants at Lions
Simon is fading the sharp love for the Giants, both preferring the Lions, citing Detroit’s dominant home trends.
Chad: “Feels like the exact smash spot you want to get in on the Lions. At home this year have been destroying bad competition.” (11:39)
Colts at Chiefs
Simon sees sharp splits, with “tons of pros on the Chiefs,” while he prefers the Colts. The same story for Vikings-Packers, Atlanta-New Orleans, and Rams-Bucks, where professional bettors are divided.
Dallas Cowboys
“What I feel like a lot of people agree on is the love for Dallas. All the pros I feel like are all over Dallas. I think the public… is joining them as well.” (07:28)

3. Deep Breakdown: Game-by-Game Analysis

Seattle at Tennessee

(08:30 – 11:39)

Line movement from SEA -12.5 to -13; Chad and Simon remain bullish on Seattle, message: “Don’t overthink, but don’t get greedy if the number balloons.”
Chad: “We can say that the perceived value is lost… Reality is we’re betting a huge favorite on the road against a team that has backdoored the past two weeks.”

New York Giants at Detroit Lions

(11:39 – 13:59)

Despite sharp money hitting the Giants, Chad and Simon prefer the Lions, citing Dan Campbell’s ability to bounce back at home versus bad teams.
“Not only is a great matchup on paper… but there’s tons of data and trends that show this spot is unique to this Lions team with Goff and Campbell—they usually win and cover.” – Simon (12:54)

Pittsburgh at Chicago Bears

(13:59 – 18:10)

Wait for injury news (Aaron Rodgers). Advice: “Be patient, let the number move.” Both hosts wary of Chicago’s luck and not high on Bears as a sharp side.
Chad: “The Bears have had a horseshoe up their ass all season.” (16:56)

Cincinnati at New England

(22:08 – 25:57)

Choppy QB news: Line drops from Bengals +8.5 to +6.5 with Burrow return rumors. Simon likes the Bengals, speculating further movement possible.
Quote: “Joe Flacco is a point better than Joe Burrow. That was the most shocking part to me.” (22:49)

Colts at Chiefs

(26:10 – 30:29)

Pro/contrarian split: Simon likes Indy at +3.5 over the analytically "improved" but unlucky Chiefs.
“I just feel like the Colts are the safer, more logical bet on this number… The Chiefs just have not been able to [win close games] this year.” (27:27-28:58)

Cleveland at Raiders

(30:29 – 33:39)

Chad loves Raiders -3.5/-4 with rookie QB Shador Sanders starting for Cleveland, and a clear defensive edge for Vegas.
“There are just incredible advantages for this Raiders team. Forget about the Browns on the road... not a great spot for a Browns defense that just had a rock fight of a game.” (31:36)
Simon: Nervous at “how easy” the line looks; nervous energy permeates.

Jacksonville at Arizona

(33:39 – 37:35)

Both hosts are united on Josh Dobbs and the Cardinals as home dogs—fading an overrated Jags side.
“Pythagorean wins... Jags should have about one fewer win, and the Cardinals should have one more win… That’s not how this game is lined.” – Chad (33:39)

Atlanta at New Orleans (Brass Balls Bet)

(37:35 – 40:58)

Simon’s “Brass Balls” pick of the week: Saints -1.5; both agree that Falcons’ injuries and shaky QB play make it a strong spot for New Orleans.
“No Drake London, he’s kind of their entire offense... It’s only a bet against Kirk Cousins… they don’t have Drake London and I think it’s going to be really hard for them to move the ball.” – Chad (38:33)

Philadelphia at Dallas

(40:58 – 44:51)

Heavy pro money on Dallas, with Simon reluctantly backing the Cowboys (especially at +3.5) despite his Eagles fandom.
“A group I really respect, it’s really respected in the industry, has put north of seven figures in this Cowboys team at the three and a half and at the four.” – Simon (41:53)
“I have zero dollars to invest in this Eagles money line. I’ve taken a position on the Cowboys money line here…” – Simon (43:53)

Tampa Bay at Rams

(44:51 – 49:05)

Split perspectives: Chad wants Bucs if line hits +7, Simon expects Rams to capitalize on Bucs injury woes. Both caution: Wait for confirmation on the spread.

Carolina at San Francisco

(49:05 – 52:08)

Seven points or more feels "too big" for a scrappy Panthers team; both lean Carolina but urge caution as the market smells fishy on this number.
“I’m very tempted to put a large wager on this Panthers team. I can’t believe it. I’m just trying to be cautious because there’s just something I’m missing.” – Simon (50:50)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

“We love Mike Tomlin on this show... when asked about how he’d talk to Jalen Ramsey, ‘If someone spits in your face, do what comes natural.’” – Chad (04:50), quoting Tomlin.
On betting psychology: “Nothing in betting is perfect, right? You got to play all of it.” – Chad (31:36)
Simon, on public vs sharp movement: “A lot of split games, but there are just some sides where I feel like all the professionals have lined up and take a lot of these dogs.” (08:30)
Chad, on the Lions: “When they run the ball, they find ways to score in bunches.” (13:59)

Segment Timestamps

| Segment | Start | Summary | |---------------------------------------------|-----------|-----------------------------------------------------| | Sharp Calls (pro money recap) | 05:37 | Simon’s call-ins & where wiseguys are betting | | Houston/Buffalo analysis | 06:07 | Hosts split: Simon (Bills), Chad (Texans), pros agree with Chad | | Giants/Lions breakdown | 11:39 | Both love Detroit, refuting sharp Giants backers | | Bears/Steelers & Rodgers injury | 13:59 | Both waiting on injury news; skeptical on Bears | | Bengals/Patriots market swings | 22:08 | Line sharpens with Burrow return rumors | | Colts/Chiefs, Square vs. Sharp | 26:10 | Simon strong on Colts +3.5 against “metrics” Chiefs | | Raiders/Browns & Shador Sanders | 30:29 | Chad bullish on Raiders, Simon cautious | | Jags/Cardinals, Pythagorean Wins | 33:39 | Both love Cards +3, refute “records blind” market | | Saints/Falcons (Brass Balls Bet) | 37:35 | Simon’s top tap, Chad agrees, Falcons too banged up | | Eagles/Cowboys, pros on Dallas | 40:58 | Simon: whale money (7 figures) lands on Dallas | | Bucs/Rams line movement | 44:51 | Split—Chad on Bucs with value, Simon on Rams | | Panthers/49ers, trap line? | 49:05 | Both like Carolina +7, but wary of market moves | | Rapid-fire: Which games to review Sunday | 52:08 | Lions, Steelers, Seattle, Cincy, Raiders, Cards... | | Parlays & survivor tips | 59:53 | Favorite dogs: Cincy, Dallas, Pittsburgh, Cards | | “Sharp vs. Square” final picks | 61:27 | Simon: Dallas +3.5; Chad: Raiders -3 |

Bullet Point Recap: Favorite Bets & Consensus

Strongest Sides (where hosts align, especially when the wiseguys clash with the public):
- Lions -10 at home vs. Giants
- Seattle -13 at Titans (but better in teasers)
- Cardinals +3 vs. Jaguars
- Saints -1.5 (Brass Balls Bet) vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Cowboys +3.5 vs. Eagles (heavy pro money, Simon reluctantly with Dallas)
- Colts +3.5 at Chiefs (contrarian dog play)
- Panthers +7 at 49ers (but careful—market feels fishy)
- Raiders -3.5 vs. Browns (Chad’s favorite, Simon nervous)

Final Betting Tips & Market Wisdom

Wait for injury news and react to late line movement.
Big favorites (Seattle, Detroit): Best as parlay/teaser legs rather than solo.
Don’t chase “easy” lines: If a spread looks too good to be true (Panthers/Niners), pause—there may be more to it.
Parlays:
- Underdogs: Cincy, Dallas, Pittsburgh, Cardinals
- Favorites: Raiders, Saints, Chiefs, Seattle (-5.5), Packers
Survivor pools: Prioritize big favorites, but don’t force fringe teams or 49ers in a trap spot.

Closing Thought

Chad and Simon combine analytical rigor with real-world market sense and an insider’s pulse on sharp money. For Week 12, their motto: “The numbers never tell the full story—track injuries, respect the market, but trust your process.”

Useful for Listeners Who Missed the Episode:

This summary covers the sharpest picks, notable splits, major line moves, and core betting philosophies that define the Sharp or Square approach to NFL Week 12. Quotable moments and precise numbers are included for extra edge.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

“[I’m definitely going to be on Houston at plus six. I just... I love this defense so much.]” – Chad (06:30)
“[Not only is it a great matchup on paper... but there’s tons of data and trends that show this spot is unique to this Lions team with Goff and Campbell—they usually win and cover.]” – Simon (12:54)
“[A group I really respect... has put north of seven figures in this Cowboys team at the three and a half and at the four.]” – Simon (41:53)
“[The Bears have had a horseshoe up their ass all season.]” – Chad (16:56)
“[I am all over this Panthers one, but I'm trying to be cautious because it feels way too easy and I'm missing something.]” – Simon (50:50)

Sharp or Square – NFL Week 12 Betting Breakdown

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points

1. General Approach to the Week

Audio Callout: Chad and Simon explain the "sharp vs. square" mentality, sifting public picks from professional angles and sharing where the true value lies.
Tone: Straight-shooter, data-savvy, occasionally self-deprecating—especially as they commiserate over audio mishaps (“I am getting my leaves done... It is late fall here in the Northeast.” – Simon, 12:46).

2. Sharp Calls: What the Wiseguys Are Really On

(05:37 – 08:30)

Simon summarizes where the pro money is landing, often against public sentiment.

Hot Spots:

Houston +6 at Buffalo
Simon: “I’m on the Bills, they love Houston tonight… I just can’t get there. I can’t trust Davis Mills with my money again.” (06:07)
Chad: “I’m definitely going to be on Houston at plus six. I love this defense… I feel like I’m looking at a Bills team that just had a miracle game.” (06:30)
Giants at Lions
Simon is fading the sharp love for the Giants, both preferring the Lions, citing Detroit’s dominant home trends.
Chad: “Feels like the exact smash spot you want to get in on the Lions. At home this year have been destroying bad competition.” (11:39)
Colts at Chiefs
Simon sees sharp splits, with “tons of pros on the Chiefs,” while he prefers the Colts. The same story for Vikings-Packers, Atlanta-New Orleans, and Rams-Bucks, where professional bettors are divided.
Dallas Cowboys
“What I feel like a lot of people agree on is the love for Dallas. All the pros I feel like are all over Dallas. I think the public… is joining them as well.” (07:28)

3. Deep Breakdown: Game-by-Game Analysis

Seattle at Tennessee

(08:30 – 11:39)

Line movement from SEA -12.5 to -13; Chad and Simon remain bullish on Seattle, message: “Don’t overthink, but don’t get greedy if the number balloons.”
Chad: “We can say that the perceived value is lost… Reality is we’re betting a huge favorite on the road against a team that has backdoored the past two weeks.”

New York Giants at Detroit Lions

(11:39 – 13:59)

Despite sharp money hitting the Giants, Chad and Simon prefer the Lions, citing Dan Campbell’s ability to bounce back at home versus bad teams.
“Not only is a great matchup on paper… but there’s tons of data and trends that show this spot is unique to this Lions team with Goff and Campbell—they usually win and cover.” – Simon (12:54)

Pittsburgh at Chicago Bears

(13:59 – 18:10)

Wait for injury news (Aaron Rodgers). Advice: “Be patient, let the number move.” Both hosts wary of Chicago’s luck and not high on Bears as a sharp side.
Chad: “The Bears have had a horseshoe up their ass all season.” (16:56)

Cincinnati at New England

(22:08 – 25:57)

Choppy QB news: Line drops from Bengals +8.5 to +6.5 with Burrow return rumors. Simon likes the Bengals, speculating further movement possible.
Quote: “Joe Flacco is a point better than Joe Burrow. That was the most shocking part to me.” (22:49)

Colts at Chiefs

(26:10 – 30:29)

Pro/contrarian split: Simon likes Indy at +3.5 over the analytically "improved" but unlucky Chiefs.
“I just feel like the Colts are the safer, more logical bet on this number… The Chiefs just have not been able to [win close games] this year.” (27:27-28:58)

Cleveland at Raiders

(30:29 – 33:39)

Chad loves Raiders -3.5/-4 with rookie QB Shador Sanders starting for Cleveland, and a clear defensive edge for Vegas.
“There are just incredible advantages for this Raiders team. Forget about the Browns on the road... not a great spot for a Browns defense that just had a rock fight of a game.” (31:36)
Simon: Nervous at “how easy” the line looks; nervous energy permeates.

Jacksonville at Arizona

(33:39 – 37:35)

Both hosts are united on Josh Dobbs and the Cardinals as home dogs—fading an overrated Jags side.
“Pythagorean wins... Jags should have about one fewer win, and the Cardinals should have one more win… That’s not how this game is lined.” – Chad (33:39)

Atlanta at New Orleans (Brass Balls Bet)

(37:35 – 40:58)

Simon’s “Brass Balls” pick of the week: Saints -1.5; both agree that Falcons’ injuries and shaky QB play make it a strong spot for New Orleans.
“No Drake London, he’s kind of their entire offense... It’s only a bet against Kirk Cousins… they don’t have Drake London and I think it’s going to be really hard for them to move the ball.” – Chad (38:33)

Philadelphia at Dallas

(40:58 – 44:51)

Heavy pro money on Dallas, with Simon reluctantly backing the Cowboys (especially at +3.5) despite his Eagles fandom.
“A group I really respect, it’s really respected in the industry, has put north of seven figures in this Cowboys team at the three and a half and at the four.” – Simon (41:53)
“I have zero dollars to invest in this Eagles money line. I’ve taken a position on the Cowboys money line here…” – Simon (43:53)

Tampa Bay at Rams

(44:51 – 49:05)

Split perspectives: Chad wants Bucs if line hits +7, Simon expects Rams to capitalize on Bucs injury woes. Both caution: Wait for confirmation on the spread.

Carolina at San Francisco

(49:05 – 52:08)

Seven points or more feels "too big" for a scrappy Panthers team; both lean Carolina but urge caution as the market smells fishy on this number.
“I’m very tempted to put a large wager on this Panthers team. I can’t believe it. I’m just trying to be cautious because there’s just something I’m missing.” – Simon (50:50)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

“We love Mike Tomlin on this show... when asked about how he’d talk to Jalen Ramsey, ‘If someone spits in your face, do what comes natural.’” – Chad (04:50), quoting Tomlin.
On betting psychology: “Nothing in betting is perfect, right? You got to play all of it.” – Chad (31:36)
Simon, on public vs sharp movement: “A lot of split games, but there are just some sides where I feel like all the professionals have lined up and take a lot of these dogs.” (08:30)
Chad, on the Lions: “When they run the ball, they find ways to score in bunches.” (13:59)

Segment Timestamps

Bullet Point Recap: Favorite Bets & Consensus

Strongest Sides (where hosts align, especially when the wiseguys clash with the public):
- Lions -10 at home vs. Giants
- Seattle -13 at Titans (but better in teasers)
- Cardinals +3 vs. Jaguars
- Saints -1.5 (Brass Balls Bet) vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Cowboys +3.5 vs. Eagles (heavy pro money, Simon reluctantly with Dallas)
- Colts +3.5 at Chiefs (contrarian dog play)
- Panthers +7 at 49ers (but careful—market feels fishy)
- Raiders -3.5 vs. Browns (Chad’s favorite, Simon nervous)

Final Betting Tips & Market Wisdom

Wait for injury news and react to late line movement.
Big favorites (Seattle, Detroit): Best as parlay/teaser legs rather than solo.
Don’t chase “easy” lines: If a spread looks too good to be true (Panthers/Niners), pause—there may be more to it.
Parlays:
- Underdogs: Cincy, Dallas, Pittsburgh, Cardinals
- Favorites: Raiders, Saints, Chiefs, Seattle (-5.5), Packers
Survivor pools: Prioritize big favorites, but don’t force fringe teams or 49ers in a trap spot.

Closing Thought

Useful for Listeners Who Missed the Episode:

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

“[I’m definitely going to be on Houston at plus six. I just... I love this defense so much.]” – Chad (06:30)
“[Not only is it a great matchup on paper... but there’s tons of data and trends that show this spot is unique to this Lions team with Goff and Campbell—they usually win and cover.]” – Simon (12:54)
“[A group I really respect... has put north of seven figures in this Cowboys team at the three and a half and at the four.]” – Simon (41:53)
“[The Bears have had a horseshoe up their ass all season.]” – Chad (16:56)
“[I am all over this Panthers one, but I'm trying to be cautious because it feels way too easy and I'm missing something.]” – Simon (50:50)

SHARP NFL BETS Week 12: Eagles-Cowboys, Bucs-Rams, Vikings-Packers, Colts-Chiefs, Giants-Lions and more

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Summary

Sharp or Square – NFL Week 12 Betting Breakdown

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points

1. General Approach to the Week

2. Sharp Calls: What the Wiseguys Are Really On

3. Deep Breakdown: Game-by-Game Analysis

Seattle at Tennessee

New York Giants at Detroit Lions

Pittsburgh at Chicago Bears

Cincinnati at New England

Colts at Chiefs

Cleveland at Raiders

Jacksonville at Arizona

Atlanta at New Orleans (Brass Balls Bet)

Philadelphia at Dallas

Tampa Bay at Rams

Carolina at San Francisco

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Segment Timestamps

Bullet Point Recap: Favorite Bets & Consensus

Final Betting Tips & Market Wisdom

Closing Thought

Useful for Listeners Who Missed the Episode:

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

Summary

Sharp or Square – NFL Week 12 Betting Breakdown

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points

1. General Approach to the Week

2. Sharp Calls: What the Wiseguys Are Really On

3. Deep Breakdown: Game-by-Game Analysis

Seattle at Tennessee

New York Giants at Detroit Lions

Pittsburgh at Chicago Bears

Cincinnati at New England

Colts at Chiefs

Cleveland at Raiders

Jacksonville at Arizona

Atlanta at New Orleans (Brass Balls Bet)

Philadelphia at Dallas

Tampa Bay at Rams

Carolina at San Francisco

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Segment Timestamps

Bullet Point Recap: Favorite Bets & Consensus

Final Betting Tips & Market Wisdom

Closing Thought

Useful for Listeners Who Missed the Episode:

Notable Quotes with Timestamps