B (2:52)

Heartbreak.

A (2:53)

You're too excited, you're too happy. I don't like it. You got me looking up what's. What's the Rams money line with the Hurricane money line right now. You got. You got me making a hate bet, but oh, no, they gotta remember they can't believe they got rid of our guy Tomlinson.

B (3:06)

I did.

A (3:07)

And they did it the smart way. What we said about Harbaugh, I cannot believe they let Harbaugh walk out the door for no trade aspect. Tomlin, at least they retained his rights. Maybe he goes do. Does TV for a year or yeah, maybe he takes one meeting in that boardroom and he's like, my God, I cannot debut with these suits. I need to get back to my guys and get back to NFL. So, I mean, the Tomlin stuff, I mean, you're obviously set with your. Your head coach, but whether nine other vacancies right now, these. Everyone's like, oh my God, Tomlin's available man has never had a losing season. And again, we can go through the quarterback list, just a ton of trash and had a winning season every year. So I could. I was honestly in shock. Like my mouth hit the floor when they let him go. But I think we had heard a little bit of whispers about it. Right? He was a little burned out with the team, the coach, like not the coaches, but just in General Football. Right. 19 years is a long time. So, yeah, I was just floored. I can't believe it right now. We lost Harbaugh and Tomlin. It was our bread and butter chat, our favorite matchup every year. And just like that, it's over, buddy.

B (4:12)

Yeah, I blacked out. You were talking about Tomlin, but I was really just singing the Indiana fight song in my head the whole time. I'm kidding. Yeah, it's. We got a poor one out.

A (4:21)

Killing it. You're killing it.

B (4:22)

Pour one out. A great career for Mike Tomlin. He has made us so much money. He has made Matt Mitchell so happy because of all the Tomlin drops he's been able to cut over the years. The guy has been a pillar of consistency.

A (4:38)

Amen. I don't care how the other 31 are doing it.

B (4:41)

And you think about it, since Ben Roethlisberger retired, what he has done with the Kenny Pickett's and the Mason Rudolph's and obviously the Aaron Rodgers and the Duck Hodges and I can't even think of all the mediocre to bad quarterbacks. And this guy has figured out a way every single year in every single game to put his team in a position to have that voodoo magic that Tomlin has and get the turnover, get the takeaway, muddy up the game, be patient. Really just a clinic. In coaching, I, I, I continue to not understand why owners, why management would be anxious to get rid of coaches who have proven to be winners year after year after year. Same with Harbaugh. Look, we're seeing LaFleur has not been let go by the Packers. They're working on getting him an extension. I think it's the right thing to do. Like you don't want to like just think there's, the grass is not always greener. There's been so many instances where it just doesn't work a second time. Like you got a good coach, keep the good coach. You think the Titans wouldn't love to have Mike Vrabel right now? How stupid and impetuous was that? Like you got the guy Harbaugh's already.

A (5:56)

Signing with the Giants. Yeah, in a week later, like I just again, the Ravens, they do have a good owner. I'm not going to crap on their owner. The guy's smart. I think that was the first time he spoke in like eight years, seven years.

B (6:06)

And he was great.

A (6:08)

And you know that, that to me, like I told you, I feel like an emotional decision. Apparently he did it via phone while Harbaugh was driving home. That's, that's a story that came out. So you know the fact that this man has already signed to potentially be the Giants next head coach just again people we always talk about, don't let emotions take control. And that's the Pittsburgh, they look like the more level headed organization right now compared to the Ravens in my opinion.

B (6:29)

Look, the, the Ravens owners press conference was great. The, the best line was someone asked him about Lamar Jackson having any power in the and the decision about who the next coach is going to be.

A (6:45)

Yeah.

B (6:45)

And he was like, I love my players. I'll listen to my players. They don't have any power. I'm the one with the power. I make the decision. And it was just strange.

A (6:57)

No, he said, I want to hear everyone's opinions though. Yeah, of course you put that caveat but I'm with you. At the very end he dotted the eye and he said, no, I, I got the power.

B (7:05)

That was like by the way, that's the billionaire mindset and that's how every owner thinks. Like they do not worry about the noise that is happening anywhere else. They own the team. Everyone else is working for them. That's it. That's the bottom line. Who's going to work for us this weekend, Simon? Who's going to work for us? Who's going to turn our playoffs around? Who's going to make things go? Every week we give it our picks. Every week we, your fellow professional betters call to give you some feedback. It's time to summarize those opinions. It's a special divisional round edition of Shot Call.

A (7:50)

I have to answer this phone. All right. Ring ring telephone ring. Somebody said baby, what you doing? Yeah, off the top, the two big ones. Hearing from a lot of pros about with the 49ers especially seven and a half and this Patriots team of minus three which I'm not gonna lie to you, I'm having a tough time getting on board. But here and then break it down, the reasoning for both of it is again the 49ers one just makes sense to me. It sounds sound. The Patriots ones are so interesting. It's just, you know, we've talked about these great defenses, how they are in the playoffs and how much tough will be for Drake May. But even looking now at the live line, it is moving to one to three and a half. So yeah, clearly these pros are finally taking their position on it. But yeah, for the other two games, you know, it's really split again. We're going to dive into it more obviously but there's no, you know, six figure guy coming in on the Bears or the Rams and like I just don't see groups taking that larger position at this point. We did talk about the total. I've heard some smart money come in pretty heavy on that total. And take the under on the flip side, that Denver Bills game, I know a really smart, respected group. They came in on the over. I think it was on Monday or Tuesday. I think word came out that there's only the Bills only can dress three receivers right now. I think they have three, three healthy receivers and I haven't heard a whisper of anyone else touching that over. And if anything it's come down. I've seen a couple 45 and a half numbers on that one. So that was the game I talked about. The weather was good. I honestly wanted to be on the over. I could see, I could have seen both offenses moving the ball. Like we always talk about Josh Allen, it's, you know, he might struggle in the first half, but you know, in the second half he just, he lights up these defenses. So yeah, I was upset. I thought it was gonna be more pros all over Denver, you know, the public all over the Bills. It really was two or three really smart groups came in on Denver with me, I guess I should say with the plus one and a half's and you know, we all grabbed it. Now it's flipped and it's like, okay, now all these other groups are going to come in the Bills at plus one and a half. Like, I know plenty of guys who've been waiting to get the Bills of plus one and a half. So that's a number I just don't see flipping back to Denver. I just think if it did flip again, there'd be so much resistance. They just go back to the Bills. So really interesting for the books, right? They're going to need Denver here and they're letting a hold as a favorite. So that's, that's a really fun game. I'm excited to break down. But yeah, the, the professionals. Those two games. The Bears, Rams, very split. Bills, Broncos, they're very split.

B (10:21)

All right, let's get into it. Reminder. We won't be doing our normal Sunday morning and evening shows. We will do a Saturday morning preview show. We will do a Sunday evening review show. But that is coming, that is coming after the divisional games.

A (10:46)

Yeah, you're gonna be all right. It's gonna be a late night for you in Miami, buddy.

B (10:48)

It's. It's gonna be a very late night. It's. I don't even know what I'm doing yet because I gotta watch the Bears game. My wife is coming down. My buddy.

A (10:59)

You'll be doing lots of coffee for Chad.

B (11:01)

Yeah, my buddy Matt and his wife are coming down. We're all gonna have to figure out where we're watching the Bears game. And I'm gonna have to figure out how to get from wherever we're watching the Bears game to my hotel to set up and do this post game show. It's all going to be. It's going to be like broadcast news. We're just going to be racing to get on the air. It's going to be super exciting. And by then, I don't know, will I be happy? Will I be sad? Will I be turning the corner and moving on to Indiana? I don't know yet. I don't know. Will I be thinking about Mike Tomlin? We just don't know. Get the shows at Sharper Square on YouTube. Subscribe and like the video while you're at it, you can subscribe at Sharper Square on apple pods, Spotify, etc. Right. Remember contest lines this week for the contest sides and totals for all the games. Saturday, January 17, 4:30pm Eastern Buffalo is a one point underdog at Denver, the total down to 46 and a half.

A (11:52)

Buffalo's got a spirit talking about listen up and you'll hear it talking. Who care? It's acting terrible. We're up and standing tall. America, we're a winner. Hear us now, hear us now on.

B (12:11)

A sunny Sunday singing loud, singing proud.

A (12:14)

We've got the sports teams of the day and our people die.

B (12:21)

As you predicted, as you just mentioned in sharp calls. This was Simon says. The game is flipped. Denver is now one point favorite. Definitely a wise guy move, even if it's just a few groups because the majority of the bets are on the Bills. So we know the public is coming in on the Bills here. The under to me, and you just alluded to it, I leaned over on Tuesday and sort of over the last 48 hours I flipped my script a little bit. Think about the, the Bills run defense. Why would the Broncos do anything other than run the ball? And then think about what the, the Broncos can do against the pass, especially in man defense, which the Bills are terrible at. Why the and the Bills being so good at running, why would they do anything other than run the ball? So by the stats and by the analytics and by the schemes, this should be an under. And as I say it, it means it'll go to 85 points.

A (13:23)

And that's how I'm feeling. It's like we have to take at least one over, don't we? All the other games feel way more confident about the unders here. And this one though, I'll, I'll be patient. The pros are going to keep betting the under. Maybe we get lucky, we get another key number, gets down to 44. That'd be amazing. So I'll be a little patient. Like I literally just checked the weather before he came on here. It's gonna be in the 40s high 30s, sunny. I mean it's, it's going to be perfect football weather in Mile High. So looking at both these teams, yes, we, the defenses on both these teams, their strength this year have been stops in the red zone. But we see all the time in the playoffs. Right. It's just, it doesn't really go like you're used to in the regular season. And I'll give out the one glaring stat Chad, this is. What if you're someone that's. You want to keep fading me. I totally get it. If you want to be on the Bills, here. This is the one stat that literally scared the of me. Bye. Bye. Our guy, Evan Abrams. The line has flipped from a team being favored by 1 1/2 to the other to now being a dog five other times in the playoffs. The record of the team it flipped to. So it flipped from the Broncos being a favorite to them or being a dog to them being a favorite. The teams that become the favorites, like the Broncos, they're one in four in this exact scenario. It's not historically a good spot, but.

B (14:38)

It'S not historically a good spot in the regular season either. I mean, we. We made some money this year betting against the team when the line flipped, and either we wanted to get ahead of the move or we went with the team that became the underdog.

A (14:51)

Yeah. And we also got lucky. I think in our one contest the week one, we had the Ravens plus one and a half and a flipped.

B (14:58)

That's right.

A (14:58)

And. And obviously it covered again. Ravens, though, you could have bet that for four months at +1 1/2.

B (15:02)

So.

A (15:02)

Yeah, that's stuff on board. Yeah. The last time it happened, 20, January 19, 2025, probably remember it. Ravens, Bills, same exact scenario. The. The Bills were the favorite. It flipped. The Ravens became the favorite. They lost 27 to 25. Eagles, Chiefs, super bowl, obviously, I don't have to mention again, Eagles did lose that game. And then I was shocked. It's. It had been a while. The last time it happened was in 2015. Super bowl, once again, New England Patriots, Seahawks. I couldn't believe that.

B (15:37)

Oh, yeah, that's right.

A (15:39)

So the, the spread, it was New England, obviously, as a dog, it flipped them be a favorite and they won. We all know, 28 to 24 before that, same thing. Super Bowl, Seahawks, Denver. Obviously people remember that when that line flipped, Denver just got rolled. What was that? 43, 43, 8?

B (16:05)

Something like that?

A (16:05)

Like that. And then the last one, 2012, Giants against the 49ers. Obviously, the line flipped. The Giants won that game, beat, beat on the road, went to Candlestick and won that game 20 to 17. So, you know, we just, we just, we see the data here. Obviously, it's. It points out that it's not great to be on the flip side, which is making me a little nervous. Maybe I can talk us out of putting our contest here. Obviously, I wish our contest let us put first halfs in here. It's like, no brainer. I want to get on Denver first half once again. I, I, as much as it hurt that Jags game, it's, it was a little bit of unluckiness there and I, I, you know, Denver here, we've talked about a Sean Payton on script that first 30 plays. We expect it to be scores, right? I mean he's been game planning this 30 plays for two and a half weeks now. So I'm really excited to see what Sean Payne comes out with. But yeah, I, I was so confident, honestly on that Stemmer line because it's like, all right, perfect. It flipped. Despite every bookmaker I've talked to, it's all Bill's money, all the teasers. I mean they can't get enough of seven and a half point teasers on this Bills team. And as soon as I saw that stat from Evan, I goes, oh my God, am I, am I a dead man walking here taking this? But we talk all the time. That's, it's a super small sample. Not going to try to react to it too much, but I'm definitely going to drop my figure amount from this one. This was going to be a bigger bet for me. I'm being a little more patient here because like anyone else, as soon as you see that Josh Allen's down to three healthy receivers and it's, you know, two guys that were off the streets not even a couple weeks ago, we get it. He can overcome all these Superman. This is a man with a bad leg, a bad foot, possible concussion on a short week on the road to Mile High.

B (17:51)

It's like, don't forget he hurt his finger too.

A (17:53)

Yeah, it's, it's all stacked against him and he's just, he's the goat, not the goat. I mean he's great, but it's like if there's any other quarterback, me and Chad would be putting our second mortgage on our health embedding this never Brocko team, but Josh Allen scares us. So I don't know about you, I'm still, I'm still on my position, but I, I just see this number just be like that Bears number. I can easily see this getting a 2 1/2 3 by kickoff on this Bill side. I just can, I really do think a lot of professionals will come in on the standard team as the week goes longer just because all the underlying numbers like the, the data really favors this Denver team. Chatter talked about their run game. They're probably the second best, greater offensive line right behind this Bills team. And you know we talked about the. Denver's got a great D line the Bills do not. So it could be a game where you know it's one in the trenches like most games but at the end of the day you know people when they bet this one it's going to be simply they're going to be bet on the quarterback, they're going to take a position. Am I really about to bet on bone? Nick's the favorite over Josh.

B (18:49)

I think that's it.

A (18:51)

Alert here for Josh Allen. Looking for Alex. Got it. He's a runner.

B (18:59)

No, he's a thrower.

A (19:00)

He's a football player through and through with his lesson. There he goes.

B (19:04)

Josh Allen huge rocked and excuse me.

A (19:08)

Touchdown.

C (19:09)

How many quarterbacks have you ever seen hurdle anyone?

A (19:12)

Goodness, there's no fear. No way.

B (19:15)

He was big and strong.

A (19:23)

A laser beam touchdown Buffalo. He's still going. Oh my goodness. The demands to do something about this outrageous man became louder and louder.

B (19:38)

Josh Allen is like the knight in Monty Python. You know they cut off his arm, they cut off his other arm. Just a scratch, just a flesh wound. Just a flesh wound. It's betting against Patrick Mahomes. It's, that's, that's why the total is so scary because we've seen with both of these teams. Bonix had multiple double digit comebacks in the fourth quarter this year. This team the, the, the Bills last week and the Jags lit it up in the second quarter in the second half almost blew past the total of 51 and a half 52. Right. So like it's a, it's a tricky, tricky game. There's all the metrics in the world on the field. There's all the schemes in the world on the field but we're looking at the players and you really got to ask yourself are we betting against Josh Allen? Are we betting on Bo Nix? Like that's, it's a tricky one. I, I have no desire right now strong enough feeling for this to be one of the contest plays like again.

A (20:43)

That over we, it could on Saturday we couldn't make it Saturday.

B (20:46)

That's like to me the total is the thing that I'm most interested in. The side is less appealing to me by the way.

A (20:53)

20, 21 points in the fourth quarter like that, that's, that's what I mean a lot this season.

B (20:58)

So yeah I mean but I feel like we've been seeing that so much this year. So much like just we saw it. The, the Steelers Houston game almost went over. The Bears packers game went over because of that like, how many times have we seen just these crazy points scored in the final quarter? Matt Mitchell's been very quiet about this game last week, couldn't shut up this week. Not a peep.

A (21:25)

Yeah. And it's, I mean, what you just talked about, it's part of the game, of the thing about these guys probably didn't sleep that great the night before. Right. You're amped up for a game, then you're all day, you're waiting for this game to kick off. Once again you're amped up, fired up. You use a lot of that injury in the first half. How do you not. We've seen every game. I mean, the Jags, that Bills game. Think about how hard those guys were flying around that first.

B (21:46)

Yeah.

A (21:47)

And by the second half, a lot of those guys did not have their legs underneath them. Right. That's, that's part of it. Where it's like that goes so hard. You're so excited to be in the playoffs. So I think what you're saying is true. Like we've seen it now in a couple games this year where these guys with the new kickoff rules and all that, it's. It's definitely something to look into that. It's. It's a. Maybe that's the place for us. Right. Just taking these unders first half and taking the over second half.

B (22:08)

It's a good idea. Meanwhile, the second game, 8pm San Francisco at Seattle, the number has moved from seven and a half to seven. The total is ticked down from 45 and a half to 45. This was Chad's choice and I actually still that the total, the under everything we just said about the second halves and the fourth quarters being true. But I think that also plays into when we've got volatility with quarterbacks and we're talking about Josh Allen, Bo Nix, Caleb Williams. I think we have less of that in this game. And I think if we're, if we're trying to sort of understand the narrative for these games. Mike McDonald is not going to want to let Sam Darnold take this game away from his defense. Right. He's been much more conservative. The game planning, the Kubiakubiak game plan has been much more conservative with Sam Darnold since he had that little stretch of multiple turnover games. And they've really been letting their defense just take control of, of any game Seattle's been in and it's been working for them. I think that they're thinking play conservative. Don't give the Niners any short field with turnovers. And the Niners, they've struggled to run the ball without Trent Williams and he's playing on one leg. He's admitted it.

A (23:34)

They.

B (23:35)

They've struggled to run the ball without George Kittle. He's not going to be in the game. So the Seahawks know that they're going to game plan to be conservative. I can't see why the under hasn't moved even more.

A (23:50)

Yeah, I can tell you there. There are some pros I know that have taken position on the over in this game in the sense that what you just talked about. Right. The 49ers defense is so bad, they're expecting Sam Darnold to have a much better game than he did the previous one where, you know, 13 points. Like again, they gave him a ton of praise because he won the game. Obviously outplayed Brock Purdy, but that was not that impressive. Right. They had. Was it two redesigned turnovers where they. They went for no fourth down. Then he had a horrible pick. But we've talked about Sam Darn has not been playing well. So that's why like I'm. I'm with you on the under. It's like that's. That's a lot of points we bet on Sam Darnold in a playoff game to put up. Right. You're. If you're making that bet, you're banking. I'm at least get you three touchdowns, maybe even possibly four if you think they're going to win this game. So I'm with you. I. I honestly am shocked too. This is not six and a half. I really thought the pros would be like me and just hammer this 49ers side. I could not believe the 7 1/2. I know they're injured and they're really banged up, but it's so hard to be divisional opponent three times. Like not well, this wouldn't be the third time, it'll be the second time. But playing them three times, it's like. Like you know each other so well. It's always such close, tight games. And the last time you played, you got the worst possible game from the 49ers. Like everything in that game was just so not like them. Right. Even Brock Purdy, as fearless as he looked in all these other games, that was the only game he honestly looked timid and scared. That's y. Like he just did not look comfortable at all. He saw in the Eagles game, even stepped on the pocket. He looked comfortable. So much more comfortable compared to that Seattle game. So, you know, we. I Gave it all the stats. You know, he's. He's owned Brock Purdy's own, the Seattle team. He's only lost one game in his career there. He's 6 and 1. You know, I gave out that Shanahan stat, which is really impressive to me. Wild card round, divisional round, Shanahan 70 straight up, 6 and 1 against the spread. When he's an underdog on the road in his career, he's 30 straight up Shanahan. So he's been a guy in this position. He's dominated. And again, I don't know if I'm as confident in the money line. I wish I was in the Seattle of this Niners team. I probably will throw a little bit on it at some point, but right now, for me, my. My biggest position is obviously the seven, the seven and a half on this 49ers team. It just feels like way too many points. And yeah, I'm excited to see where the resistance will be because I knew some pros who, they want to be on Seattle. They want to be under the seven, obviously. So the books, will they just leave it at the 7? Because again, we talk all the time. The books are not, they're not here for pushes. They lose on pushes. Right? That's. That's the worst case scenario. So if this doesn't tick under six and a half, I'm not gonna lie to you, I'll be a little nervous heading the game time. But the way it's looking right now, I just think the pros will keep coming. The 49ers team and most books I've seen, it is all 49ers money for the most part. Right? That's. That's been the early money here. So like we talked about, the public usually doesn't bet till Saturday, Sunday. So maybe I'll have more info come Saturday morning. But yeah, for right now, I. I like both episodes. I like the under. I'm with you on that. I just think it's gonna be a really close, low scoring game. And, you know, I wish I'd given honestly the seven and a half as Simon says, but just as happy to give out the seven. I think that's still a great number on 49ers.

B (26:49)

Well, look, the seven and a half, I played it as well with you, but a big number like this, also, it's harder to cover when the total is as low as it is. The bookmakers are kind of telling us something here by setting the total where it is and having the number where it is. And that it's moved in the direction of the Niners. You got it like 2417, right? That's. That's sort of what it could feel like maybe 2421, which is why it was so important to get the half point. But that's kind of how this game shapes up, because you got to believe that Kyle Shanahan will manufacture some points. Like, we know he can do that. He's at his best when he's playing with the fewest number of pieces on the board and just scheming the fuck out of a game.

A (27:38)

Like you said, they're wounded for sure. Like Trent.

B (27:41)

Oh, my God.

A (27:41)

Williams is wounded. Caffrey is wounded. We said they have. They have guys off the streets now playing wide receiver and.

B (27:47)

And linebacker.

A (27:49)

I'm like you. I'm. I'm shocked the total is this high because I know it was week one. The first time they played, it was a 17, 13 win by the 49ers. And the last time they played was a 13. Three game.

B (27:59)

Yeah.

A (28:00)

So I'm right there with you. Like, that was the only reason. I'm so hesitant to be hammering this under so much. It's like, you know, my model has it at 42 and a half. I mean, you can. There's some books that were still 46. I know it's come down to 45 and a half, but I. I was just shocked they hung such a big number, this one. And looking right now, the different splits, it's. It's basically every public book, for the most part is on the under two sharp books. It's heavy money towards the over. So, yeah, the. Maybe the professionals really do love the over here, and we're just underrating how good this Seahawks offense can be. I just. I don't know how you can trust Sam Darnold here.

B (28:36)

I agree. I don't know what the professionals are thinking, or maybe they don't know what we're thinking. Let's take a word from our sponsor, Hard Rock bet. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock. Bat. With Miami making the national championship, you know Hard Rock Stadium will be rocking. And if you're going to the game, Hard Rock Vet is giving you a $10 bonus bet to get in on the action. If you're watching the game out in Miami, head to the Hard Rock Cafe, Miami, Duffy's, North Miami Beach, American Social Miami, and Batch Brickell. Hard Rock bet is dropping 10 bonus bets there to use. You can turn that free $10 bonus bet into A big win by placing the same game parlay. Or even if you're just watching the game at home, there's still no better place to bet than Natty than Hard Rock Bet because it's Florida Sportsbook, so they're going crazy with promos for this one. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a $5 bet. And if it hits, you get not only winnings, but also an extra $150 in bonus bets. Even if your team may be out of the playoffs, that doesn't mean you have to sit on the sidelines between same game parlays, Live betting, a can't miss welcome offer, and new promos dropping every day. Hard Rock Bet has you covered all postseason long. That's Hard Rock Bet. Download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit today. Payable and bonus bets and then a cash offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida Influence Florida offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital, LLC and all other states must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida, call 1-833-playwise in Indiana, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9 with it gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER and in Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia. Okay, so the first Sunday game is Houston at New England. Very interesting moves here. The line has ticked up from three, from two and a half to three. Total has come down from 41 to 40 and a half. Well, I love that dirty water.

A (30:54)

Oh, Boston, you're my home.

B (31:02)

Nico Collins did not practice. Probably not going to play from the concussion. Christian Gonzalez, who had been in the protocol, did practice for the Patriots yesterday. This is a low total for a game with two good quarterbacks. And yet our brass balls bet of the week presented by Hard Rock Bet. We're going under 41.

A (31:27)

You know what it takes.

B (31:28)

It takes brass balls.

A (31:31)

Yeah, we love it. And you know, we, I talked about I'm getting bullied here into New England, which, you know, I, I'm happy to do it because to me it just, the Houston one felt so easy. It's like, of course, you just take Houston here, a team that, you know, has the better defense as, you know, an offense that as much as crap, we give them how consistent they've been, you know, down the stretcher they've been much better than what obviously they started the year right, they've kind of found their way and their identity as the season's gone along here. But the Nico Collins stuff, I'm with people that's going to push me over, right? You're losing a star player. Christian Gonzalez is already practicing, so that's a huge, huge deal to me. The fact they're losing already a key piece of their offense, that's what they've struggled, right? They've struggled consistently moving the ball this season and now you're losing Nico, you know, CJ's favorite number one just feels like a huge deal. And I, I do think this will go up to three and a half and almost every book, right? Come, come Kicko. I can see New England getting up to that number again. So I love the under, love New England and you know, this is, this is a tough one to swallow and I'm. The stuff I'm trying to find is all the data about rushing quarterbacks against this Houston team, there isn't much, right? They've just been so dominant this year. Obviously they lost those first three games. The other two games they lost. One was when we remember against Denver where CJ got knocked out, Denver came back in the fourth quarter. The other one was on the road October 20th at Seattle. And you know, I don't know if you'll remember that game, but you know, 27 and 19, Sam Donna played really well and honestly a lot of it was with his leg getting out the side of the pocket. So I do think that's the type of stuff that you know, Drake May, the coaching staff like they're going to look at that where it's like, okay, we know how Domino, Anderson, all these edge rushers are. You can't beat him with speed, right? It's a lot different than going against a 41, 42 year old Aaron Rodgers who just stands in that pocket. We've seen Drake May consistently stand in the pocket and then move up. He steps up into it and last week we saw where he knew the pass game was not working for him, right? He was struggling that first half. He went back to his legs, which to me that dictated that game that saved them in that game where he picked up some easy, cheap first downs and it kind of got them in a little bit of rhythm. Now not that impressive, right? They scored 16 points, but to me that was a big deal, right? The kid threw a pick, had a bad fumble, never wavered, played really well in that second half. I think he threw for over 250 yards. So I know. I can't believe I'm not going to shoot in defense. But I am seeing the way of these other pros and why they like this Patriots team and it's bizarre world. We might, we might have a world where it's Bizarre Bo Nicks vs Drake May going to a Super bowl. But we talk all the time, Chad. That's why in the quarterback position, the biggest nerds in the world can say it's a team sport. End of the day, it's a team sport. It's a quarterback sport. Like you get your quarterback in the draft, you can change your entire organization within a year or two. And this is, this is crazy. I can't believe I'm back in the Patriots. But it's about the number and I'm glad we're going with the under chat. It's to me, another under that will keep coming down. I could see this easy being 39 and a half by kickoff.

B (34:38)

Yeah, I'm much more comfortable with the under than I am with the side.

A (34:42)

And maybe I'll get you there Saturday morning. We'll see.

B (34:45)

We'll see. We got time.

A (34:46)

Yeah, we got time.

B (34:47)

We don't know where it's gonna land.

A (34:48)

I get it. You're a little gunshot on the sides right now. I get it, buddy, but oh my.

B (34:52)

God, am I gunshot.

A (34:55)

Read by the pros. And again, I, I'm saying I'm off on this one because I have a model two and a half. But I'm gonna go back and dive more into what, what it's like without Nico Collins. I'm sure it's gonna move by another half a point. So three three feels right for this line. Sweet home.

B (35:23)

All right, last game, maybe the most important, important game in the history of football. The Chicago Bears hosting the Los Angeles Rams 6:30pm Sunday night, January 18th. Bears are four point underdogs right now at Hard Rock. The total is 49s. Come down from, you know, an opener of 52 way early in the week. Most of the week was at a 50, 50 and a half when we spoke on Tuesday. At least the weather is just wreaking havoc with this game. I, I highly recommend everybody go check out a story on ESPN.com today by John Kahn and it's a really fun story about how players handle the cold. Some of the coolest things that stood out for me, Stafford, thanks to advice from Tom Brady, plays in these really cold weather games in a scuba suit and Sean McVeigh wears a scuba suit. And they say it doesn't restrict their movement. At least Stafford says that, Brady says that. And it's a great way to sort of maintain, you know, some kind of protection against the cold. The flip side is how many players talked about the pain that comes from having jammed sprained fingers in the cold. It just feels like your finger is cracking when you are holding a football trying to block someone. They say the pain is unlike anything they felt. And Matthew Stafford is going into this game where it's supposed to feel like it's negative 4 with a badly sprained finger.

A (37:04)

Yeah, I gave you that stat. It's, it's. We're seeing history here. That's the second time in NFL history a team will be back to back games as a home underdog, which is what the Bears will be. Right. And the other time it happened, I gave you that stat. It happened with the Eagles 2017-2018. You know, they obviously won both those games as home dogs. And you know, if I was a Bears fan, I'd be hyped up like Chadis gave you. You're getting exactly what you want. You're getting an indoor team from California, outdoors in the element with a quarterback that might have a banged up finger. So yeah, it's. I get why Chad's so excited. It's peak right now for Bears fandom. What was the first time you guys had won a home game in the playoffs in like 30 years or since the Super bowl run? 20 years.

B (37:46)

I mean some. It's been like five coaches since we won a playoff game.

A (37:52)

Right. And you know the, like everyone else, the public has the same exact data we have about the weather. So everyone's just coming in hammering this Bears team. Like I said, the professionals are split for money wise. I know more money has been on the Rams from pros. Right. And I'm interested to see where these groups do like will the groups come in heavier on the Rams and will this go back up to four, four and a half on this Ram side? Because right now it is all Bears money for the most part. Like everywhere I've seen and you know, bookmakers I've talked to, it's all Bears money. The total is split. Right. I think pros have come in and what done what we've done which is take the first half on her. But overall it's actually pretty split towards the over. I will give the the one good stat I could find about Stafford. And again like Chad said, this is doesn't hold too much truth to it because this is something he's never played in before. Right. This is just for under 40 degrees because I've seen so many stats about how bad he is in cold weather. Simply not true. In his career he is 711 in games under 40 degrees because we all know he played in the NFC north for you know, 15 or whatever it was 12 years, 10 years. Stafford, he is 4 and 1 against the Bears when it's below 40 degrees obviously at soldier Field and when he's favored. So he's been favorite eight times. When it's below 40 degrees he is 5 and 3. But out of seven of those games he's had a QB rating of a plus 100. So he doesn't struggle horribly. I mean I just gave you the data there. Like he, you know, I looked at it early in his career. He really did. Which makes sense, right? He what he played a Georgia, was a dome quarterback in Detroit. He did struggle in Lambo. He did struggle. What was it? We have two years when they played at Minnesota play at the Minnesota College stadium. Yeah. Which is crazy to think back to. And then obviously Soldiers Field, he, he's actually done pretty well there when it's been cold, but it's a different beast. So yeah, I'm, I, I, I, I'm betting the Rams. I can't believe it. Like I was, I thought I'd be on the Bears at this point, but I can't get over the match for your guys defense. They are just, that's the flip side, right. Offensively you're going to need that finger to be a real issue because there is. You don't have anyone that can cover Demonte Adams, let alone Puka Nukua. You don't have a single cover. And your safeties, as great as they've been, they do not have the speed for Puka Nakua. So I see a lot of, a lot of shelf against Puka. And this will end up being a heavy, heavy run game for me with Williams and that running game with the Rams team.

B (40:30)

That's what I was going to say. Like I don't know that Matthew Stafford's finger is going to be that much of an impact when you're a really good running team playing against a rush defense that is 28th in DVOA against the run, 26th in success rate. They lost their best linebacker in TJ Edwards. The difference between when TJ Edwards plays and when he doesn't play in terms of yards per carry is almost two yards per carry. They're giving up six yards per carry. When TJ Edwards doesn't play.

A (41:02)

So is your tackle out too?

B (41:04)

You know what? I didn't check that update. I forgot to check that.

A (41:07)

I, I, I know he hasn't practiced. I just, anytime I see a guy get carded out, it's like there's no way. But we've seen miracles before, right? So you really never know.

B (41:16)

But look, we've seen seven miracles for the Bears who have won seven games with less than two minutes so that they were behind with less than two minutes left. So like it's, it's a tricky one. It's really a tricky one. It's, it's kind of why I'm still liking the first half under the best because I do expect. Yeah, like we've seen the Bears get off to slow starts and really ramp it up in the final quarter of the game and we know the Rams are going to want to ease into this and why not run the ball a lot when the Bears defense is just atrocious at stopping the run. We've seen Blake Corum and Kyron Williams have fumble problems and that is something the Bears are really good at. So who knows? That could have an impact. But I'm still leaning to the under in this game. I understand why people are pushing it back up. I like that it got to 49. The fact that you're in the Rams worries me a little bit.

A (42:06)

It shouldn't though. Like I know plenty of pros. I mean again the pros that are on the Bears, their biggest reason is what they keep banging the table about is if Bryce Young in the playoffs can light up this defense, what is Caleb and Ben Johnson going to do?

B (42:18)

Well, look, they're, they're secondary. Like they were great at the start of the year, but it might have just been because they were playing bad quarterbacks.

A (42:25)

Yes.

B (42:25)

And been they've been terrible in the latter half of the year.

A (42:29)

And that to me is like pause where I, I wanted to be all over this under. Like we just talked about the weather. Both teams, to me they're going to be a run script heavy type of teams. Just because we've seen it. When it's cold like this, it's hard to grip the ball and catch it. That's how stupid picks and turnovers happen.

B (42:43)

Right.

A (42:44)

When you're throwing these tight windows, it's popping out of Guy's hands and we already know Ben Johnson loves on the ball. McVeigh is the same thing. Me and Chad lose our minds. McVeigh chooses to run the ball so much, especially when his team has a lead. So really, really fun game and a really tricky total and obviously side. But yeah, I think I. I'm almost positive and end up taking the Rams here in my pick contest. I'm gonna take the under as well and for betting right now I'm with Chad. I. I've taken the Rams first half. I've taken the Rams first half. Under I think it was 24 and a half if you can still get it.

B (43:15)

Well, it was 25 and a half when we talked about it on Tuesday.

A (43:17)

Yeah, it's. It's juice down minus 120 I think now to the under 24 and a half. So it's the. Obviously the pros have come in the public coming to well and bet this under. So yeah it's. You know we talk all the time. It's really fun where these games are so tight like this where it's like.

B (43:32)

It's great.

A (43:33)

Yeah. It's so painful picking either side. You can't and you probably talk to. No one's really confident especially in this game. Picking aside because of the all the unknown factors the biggest one being what Chad talked about. That finger with Stafford, is it broken? Is it dislocated? Is it nothing? Right.

B (43:48)

We'll.

A (43:48)

We'll have better info. I promise you come Saturday morning.

B (43:51)

Simon, what's your biggest bet right now? I think you hinted at it, but Give us the truth.

A (43:55)

Pull up those pants and be a man.

B (43:59)

The truth.

A (43:59)

That's always the truth, brother. Honestly, it was probably the San Francisco plus seven and a half. It's looking more and more. I can't believe this. New England Patriots. I can't believe it might end up being my bigger bets.

B (44:11)

Jesus.

A (44:12)

Yeah, I just.

B (44:13)

That feels. That feels like you're getting bullied a little bit.

A (44:16)

But I see what they're saying. I gave you those stats. Cj. CJ is just a different quarterback on the road outdoors and we have all the numbers to back that up. He is just continue to struggle and now you're taking away his number one receiver. It's like my. That just feels like too much to overcome for him. But yeah, it's. I. I know. I can't believe it. But yeah, I, I think come Sunday that'd be one of my bigger bets. And we'll see. This right now, this, this under. I keep betting it so even 24 and a half, that's not scaring me off. Once it dips down to 22 and a half or gets below 23 and a half then. But right now it's still high enough that I'm. I'm happy to keep taking that first half on her. So I would say for Right now, those three are my biggest bets.

B (44:59)

Niners plus seven and a half. Patriots minus three under 24 and a half. First half, Rams and Bears. All right, Sharp versus square. I think we both got killed last week, so do you want to go first?

A (45:12)

Yeah, I'll lean into it. I'll go Patriots minus three.

B (45:16)

All right, then you know what I'll do Bears first half under.

A (45:21)

Okay, what number are you gonna take?

B (45:24)

Oh, just give me the 24 at least.

A (45:26)

It's up to Mammoth. You can give you the. The 24 minus something.

B (45:29)

Well, Matt Mitchell just gonna come on the air and call us jagoff, so just give me the 24.

A (45:34)

Hey, Jagoffs. You can enjoy.

B (45:37)

Oh, thank you, Matt Mitchell. Let's go, Matt. Thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you.

A (45:42)

Now I flipped the Bills. Now I'm back on the Bills.

B (45:44)

Yeah, we all love the Bills. Bills Mafia. Go team. Josh Allen. Yay. All right, what's our favorite parlay here? I feel like this is the last week we can probably do. Yeah, some kind of parlay.

A (45:54)

Stretching it.

B (45:55)

Yeah, it's a tough one.

A (45:58)

Yeah. Is Matt Mitchell gonna let us get. We were there. Because I would love to throw that Bears Rams first half into a parlay, but I guess.

B (46:05)

Why don't we do it? I think we can do whatever we want.

A (46:09)

Well, if we're gonna go dogs, I mean, how do we not go Saturday dog day, where we go bills and 49ers if we. If we want to go Bills and Bears, too, for the podcast. I don't hate that either. It's up.

B (46:25)

Yeah.

A (46:29)

Those are Bears. Do you like the Bills 49ers better for underdog parlay?

B (46:33)

Niners and Bills.

A (46:36)

Niners and Bills.

B (46:37)

Okay.

A (46:38)

Okay. And for the favorites, I mean, you know, I love Patriots. Are we doing a Sunday chalk? Are we going Patriots again and going Rams? Just in case you do have the Bears lose, at least you have a parlay on it.

B (46:51)

Yeah. Passing rams. Let's do it.

A (46:54)

Do it.

B (46:55)

All right. Everybody knows. Everybody knows. If you're listening to the show that I am an IU alum. Go iu. Fight, fight, fight. I will be in the building Monday night when the Hoosiers take on the Miami Hurricanes in the college football national championship game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. The fabulous Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. And you also know the best place to say one of the stadium. One of the hotels closest to the stadium, the awesome, the cool, the incomparable Seminole Hard Rock Hotel and Casino in Hollywood, Florida. The Guitar Hotel lives up to the hype. I know it. I've stayed there, I've played there. I've wanted to move in there and never leave. I've eaten to my gluttonous content at that hotel. Good times, good food, and of course, full casino, full sportsbook. Makes you want to skip all the nearby Florida beaches. Thanks to our friends at Hard Rock, I am going to the game this weekend. I'll be roaming around the casino in the sportsbook. If you're there, say hello. When I'm not there, I'm going to be using the top rated Hard Rock bet app to hammer the Hoosiers and you're going to hear why in a second. It is the only legal sportsbook app available in the state of Florida. They got tons of betting markets already live because we know so many of you will be watching and betting on this game. Here we go, special guest talking college football joining us right now. All right, we're joined by front of the show, college football betting expert Joshua Doc Nunn, one of the co hosts over at the Big Bets on Campus podcast. Welcome to the show, Doc. Thanks for coming on. Here's what I need to know. I'm an Indiana alum. We've been talking about this for weeks. I'm wearing Indiana T shirts every single day this week. This entire season has been a surreal experience. Just say that the listeners on this show haven't watched college football or haven't listened to me crow about the Indiana Hoosiers at any point this year. Could you put what's happening here under Kurt Signetti into perspective for our audience?

C (49:23)

In my opinion, he is pulling all of the right levers here at Indiana. He's a high culture guy. He's a high team first attitude coach. There's no egos in the locker room. He's he had a quote in the media about getting the right people on the bus, having the blueprint, having the vision and then going out and making it happen. And I think Kurt Signetti has made good on all of that. He has removed any possible excuses in the current landscape of college football today for somebody rebuttaling being able to do a quick turnaround. If you just look at where Indiana was at 730 days ago. I went and looked at it. They were 3 and 9 and losing to Purdue. They were losing by four touchdowns at Maryland. It took quadruple overtime to beat Akron. For anyone listening in Here, go back and rewind that and listen to that and let that sink in. It took four overtimes to defeat Akron and now they're undefeated 15 and oh, and playing for the national championship. I will happily and proudly go on record and say that this is the greatest coaching job in the history of college athletics. What he's done at the University of Indiana, a program that is storied but didn't have a lot of success for many, many years. I mean, you can go back to the Mallory days before Indiana had really this level of success. And for them to be struggling when he took over so badly to now blowing the doors off of the traditional blue blood powerhouse programs, it is stunning. It is an immaculate coaching job.

B (50:55)

Well, document because I'm old. I was in Bloomington at IU for the Mallory days when we'd start off every season 40 and then Ohio State or Michigan would come to town and we'd all be psyched. And by halftime it'd be 45 nothing. And I'd be me and my buddy Matt would be the only ones left in the stands hanging on for dear life till the end of that game. So I remember the Mallory days well and I always thought like those years, we were the best 6, 5 and 1 team in the country every single year. What Kurt Signetti has done is so historic, I feel like he should already be in the College Football hall of Fame. This game, however, unusual situation. Hurricanes playing for a title in their home stadium. We actually asked the SVP of the Hard Rock BET sportsbook, Neil Walsh, because they're down in Florida. The only legal sportsbook in the state of Florida is Hard Rock bet. We asked him to clarify, like how they're baking that advantage, home field advantage into the spread. I'm curious to get your take on this. After I read his response, which is, obviously the Miami program knows the locker rooms, the field, the routine. They're not looking at this as Neil, as a true home game. The crowd will be mixed. Damn straight. I'll be there cheering for Indiana. The sideline isn't there. That was me, by the way, not Neal. The sideline isn't there. The environment is closer to a neutral site than a normal home date. Because of that, Neil says we're assigning a smaller home field adjustment than usual when compared to some of the larger on campus venues across college football. Miami and Hard Rock would not be considered one of the stronger home field advantages. And for a championship game, they estimate. We estimate, says Neal, the edge at about two points compared to three or Four in a standard home game. Does that level up with your expectations?

C (52:54)

Yeah, I mean, I think it's a sharp take and I think it's an appropriate take. You look at Miami historically and they don't have a tremendous home field atmosphere. Their campus isn't, or excuse me, the stadium isn't on campus. Miami, culturally in sports has a problem with people showing up on time and kind of getting the environment to where it needs to be anyway in a multitude of different sports. And this is not going to be akin to going into Ohio State Stadium or the Big House or Alabama or somewhere like that where it's going to feel like a really hostile environment. And now you put the stage at the national championship setting and you're going to have a huge constituent of Indiana fans. I've feel very strongly that this will not feel like a Miami home game.

B (53:43)

I'm going to say having been in Atlanta last week, knowing Indiana's alumni base is literally the largest in the world. More than 800,000 alumni knowing this team, these fans are traveling and knowing how thirsty they are and desperate they are and how much everyone is enjoying this run. Hoosiers are going to show out in Miami.

A (54:06)

I would say just like all games, I think zero effect will be done by the fans. It's all about the coaching, right? What you just talked about Duck, it's. It's a coaching difference here. In my opinion. That's what most pro betters are talking about. This Signetti seems like respected to betters. He's the best coach you could possibly have for this game. And you know, all the people waiting for Duck. What is your favorite bets for this game? Everyone wants to know.

C (54:27)

I mean, I looked into this pretty extensively and I ended up getting to the window and laying it with Indiana here. I looked at a couple of different metrics and a couple of different things that you know. These are two top 15 teams, two very good college football teams. And so you're trying to find out these minute differences which could decide the game for me. There's a discipline discrepancy. Miami is the fifth most heavily penalized team in the entire country. Indiana has the 10th fewest penalties accepted against them and the 6th fewest penalty yards assessed against them. I look at Indiana's red zone defense. They had only surrendered six, six reds zone touchdowns all season before the Oregon game, the margin was so wide. There was a little bit of garbage time in that Oregon game which caused some red zone scoring for the ducks, but just 34% touchdowns surrendered on the season for Indiana with their defense in the red zone. So with the field compressed with throwing lanes and receiving windows so minuscule, I worry about Miami being able to produce in the red zone at a level that's going to be necessary to seriously threaten to win this game or stay within the number. And then lastly, a forgotten element of football is special teams. Massive edge for Indiana. Their special teams composite rankings are fifth nationally compared to 49th for Miami. Indiana's better in the trenches. They're such a better tackling team. They're better disciplined. I think in situations where they have to have it, their execution will rise above Miami's. And Miami has had times this season where they've gone through stretches where they've been undisciplined which either thwarts their offensive drives or it continues the drive against their defense for the opponent. And I think that in a game of this magnitude between two great teams with good athletes all over the field, that's what it's going to come down to. So I'm not afraid of the big number here. I laid the eight and a half with Indiana.

B (56:16)

Well, it's interesting, Simon, you said the other day you were going to take the outline at 13 and a half, so I like hearing duck completely independently going in the same direction. We asked Hard Rock Bet for info from their trading team about where the action is coming in right now. And Hard Rock Bet sent us a ton of information. They're the only legal sports book in Florida, so it's a very good lens into the market and from an against the spread perspective. No surprise because it is the only legal sports book in Florida. 62% of the bets, 68% of the money on Miami plus eight and a half. About a third of the game handle was on the Hurricanes money line. One in every four bets on the game. So by far it's their most popular bet. Again, not that surprising given that it's a legal sportsbook in the state of Florida. Although a lot of sharp betters in the state of Florida, as we've been saying all year, we've seen some sharp lines coming out of Hard Rock. So if Miami pulled off the upset, not great for Hard Rock. They're rooting for a big Andy. Indiana win. Best case scenario, Indiana by nine and the over. For those asking. Hard Rock has taken one bet that's by far the biggest bet. You know, a six figure bet from a respected player on Indiana, but It was at minus six and a half, minus 130. A lot of interest from sharp betters on the Hoosiers in the early going on this game. Final question for you, Duck. Exotic wagers you'd recommend.

C (57:56)

Yeah, so there's a couple here and I'll go through them real quickly. Charlie Becker, the receiver for Indiana, number 80 over two and a half receptions. He has been such a reliable third option in this offense with most of the attention being given to Omar Cooper and Elijah Surratt. If you look at Becker, he had two catches in each of the two playoff games. But Indiana was wiping the floor with Alabama and Orego, and over the last two games they've run the ball 90 times as opposed to just 36 passing attempts. But if you look at when Indiana, the rare circumstances when they were in kind of gotta have it mode. Penn State game, Becker had seven receptions for 118 yards. The Ohio State game in the Big Ten championship, six catches for 126 yards. Only two in each of the playoff games. But I do think that this game will certainly be closer than 35 points with a lot of garbage time in the second half. So I don't expect that here. And I think Indiana will have some situations where they will have to have it. And Becker is such an outlet and such a trusted outlet for Mendoza. So with his reception total at two and a half, I like over. I also think if you're kind of feeling a little bit frisky and you want to do something fun with the first quarter, I do like the first quarter under and I do think that there's going to be a significant feeling out process from both of these opponents that are unfamiliar with each other. So I would not be surprised to see Indiana first drive, punt, Miami first drive, punt, and that rolls into a first quarter under. So you can kind of throw all three of those together in a parlay, get about four and a half to one. So punt, punt first quarter under and then it's game on from there. So I kind of like that as well.

B (59:34)

Nice. I like that a lot. All right, Joshua Nunn, AKA Duck, on Twitter at Step on a Duck. Catch him on the big Bets on campus podcast. Thanks for all the intel, the info. The Hoosier Nation supports your choices.

C (59:49)

Let's go. It's going to be a fun game. We'll be singing the Indiana song together. Guys. Have a great day.

B (59:54)

Hoo hoo hoo. Hoosiers. Nothing gets people excited like winning. It's pretty simple. I win. Google me. This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume podcast network. We will be back on Saturday morning to lock in our final five. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like the video? Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods rate. Review. Subscribe. Leave us. Five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.

A (60:34)

The road to the super bowl, filled with unexpected twists and turns, detours and shattering collisions. But the final prize makes the trip worthwhile. This is an iHeart podcast.

B (60:52)

Guaranteed Human.