Sharp or Square – NFL Divisional Playoffs: Bets, Breakdowns, and Betting Psychology

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: January 15, 2026
Main Games: Bills-Broncos, Niners-Seahawks, Texans-Patriots, Rams-Bears

Episode Overview

Chad Millman (Action Network betting expert) and professional sports gambler Simon Hunter tackle the NFL Divisional Playoff slate, dissecting sharp (“wise guy”) versus square (“public”) betting trends, key market moves, and their favorite contest picks. The episode dives deep into the "numbers and narratives" for four key playoff games, highlights noted coaching departures (Mike Tomlin, Jim Harbaugh), and closes with a special college football championship segment featuring Indiana vs. Miami with insights from CFB expert Joshua "Doc" Nunn.

Key Discussion Points

1. Mike Tomlin & Jim Harbaugh: Coaching Carousel Shockwaves

(02:23 - 07:05)

• Opening banter about Millman’s Bears fandom is derailed by the shocking news of Mike Tomlin’s departure. Both hosts underscore the anomaly of moving on from legendary, consistent coaches and bemoan the loss of classic Tomlin vs. Harbaugh matchups.
  • Simon Hunter (03:07): “Nine other vacancies right now... everyone’s like, oh my god, Tomlin’s available. Man has NEVER had a losing season... he’s had trash QBs and a winning record.”
  • Chad notes the risk of chasing “grass is greener” hires vs. retaining proven winners. Titans/Vrabel cited as recent cautionary tale.

2. Wise Guy Calls & Playoff Betting Market Moves

(07:05 - 10:46)

• Insight into “sharp” and “square” action:
  • Heaviest professional (“sharp”) opinions on 49ers (-7.5) and Patriots (-3).
  • Bills-Broncos: Split professional opinions; notable group came in hard on Broncos +1.5 early, but public all-in on Bills.
  • Totals: Pros heavy on under Bears-Rams, just a handful took over Bills-Broncos—weather and health notes influencing shifts.

3. Game-by-Game Deep Dive & Betting Analysis

A. Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos

(11:52 - 22:08)

• Line flipped: Bills from -1.5 favorite to now underdogs. Big money on Denver early, but public hammering Buffalo.
• Key stats from Evan Abrams: Teams who become favorites after a midweek line flip are 1-4 in that scenario in playoff history.
• Injury & Weather Watch: Bills down to 3 healthy WRs; decent weather forecast (40s, sunny).
• Play Style Notes: Both teams expected to run heavily; Bills poor vs. man coverage; Denver strong in run game.
  • Chad (13:21): “By the stats and by the analytics and by the schemes, this should be an under. And as I say it, it means it’ll go to 85 points.”
• Betting Psychology: Reluctance to bet against Josh Allen; Simon drops wager size despite smart money on Broncos.
  • Simon (17:53): “If it’s any other quarterback but Josh Allen... we’d put a second mortgage on Denver, but Josh Allen scares us.”
• Totals Concern: First half under considered sharper due to playoff late scoring surges.

B. San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

(22:08 - 28:36)

• Line: 49ers -7.5 to -7; total 45.5 to 45.
• Narrative: With injuries to SF (Trent Williams, Kittle out/limited), Shanahan likely deploys ultra-conservative game plan.
  • Simon (23:50): “There are pros I know that have taken the over... but I don’t see how you can trust Sam Darnold here.”
  • Chad (26:49): “Harder to cover a big number like this when the total is as low as it is... bookmakers are telling us something.”
• Trend: Shanahan 7-0 straight up and 6-1 ATS in wild card & divisional rounds, but Seattle familiarity and divisional rivalry cap scoring.

C. Houston Texans at New England Patriots

(30:54 - 34:38)

• Line: NE -3; lower-scoring total (opened 41, now 40.5).
• Market Movement: NE action from wiseguys, especially with Texans WR Nico Collins likely out and NE CB Christian Gonzalez returning.
  • Simon (31:31): “I’m getting bullied into New England... losing Nico, CJ’s favorite number one [target], just feels like a huge deal.”
• Match-up focus: Drake May’s legs potentially key against aggressive Texans pass rush; Patriots defense improving, home field matters.
  • Simon (34:07): “I can see NE getting to 3.5 by kickoff... I’m glad we’re going with the under.”
• Best Bet: Under 41 (Brass Balls Best Bet—31:27)

D. Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears

(35:23 - 43:48)

• Line: Rams -4 favorites, total 49 (dropped from 52 opener).
• Weather Impact: “Arctic” Chicago, expected wind chills near -4°F.
  • Notes from ESPN on Stafford’s “scuba suit” technique for cold games.
• Health: Rams’ Stafford with a sprained finger; Bears weak defending the run, missing LB TJ Edwards—huge splits in run defense production.
  • Simon (37:04): “You’re getting an indoor team from California outdoors in the elements with a quarterback… banged up finger.”
  • Simon (40:30): “I’m betting the Rams. I can’t get over the match with your guys’ defense... you do not have anyone that can cover Puka Nacua.”
• Betting Market: Public on Bears, sharper/pro money split but early big money slightly toward Rams. Pros favor first half under (as low as 24.5).
• Key Trend: Only second time ever team has been home underdogs in consecutive playoff games (first time since 2017-18 Eagles, who won both).

4. Favorite Bets, Parlay Building, and Contest Plays

(43:51 - 46:54)

• Simon’s Biggest Bets:
  • Niners +7.5
  • Patriots -3
  • Under 24.5 (1st half Rams-Bears)
• “Sharp vs. Square” challenge picks:
  • Simon: Patriots -3 (45:12)
  • Chad: Bears-Rams 1st half under 24 (45:16)
• Dog Parlay: Bills + Niners, or Bills + Bears.
• Chalk Parlay: Patriots + Rams.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Mike Tomlin/Coaching:
  • Simon (03:07): “Man has never had a losing season... mouth hit the floor when they let him go.”
  • Chad (04:41): “Why are owners so anxious to get rid of coaches who are proven winners, year after year?”
• On betting against Josh Allen:
  • Chad (19:38): “Josh Allen is like the knight in Monty Python... just a flesh wound!”
• On the Patriots-Texans under:
  • Chad (31:27): “Our brass balls bet of the week presented by Hard Rock Bet—we're going under 41.”
• On Bears fandom and weather:
  • Simon (37:04): “This is the second time in NFL history a team will be back to back games as a home underdog... if I was a Bears fan, I'd be hyped up like Chad.”

College Football Championship: Indiana vs. Miami Special Segment

(46:54 – 59:49)
Guest: Joshua "Doc" Nunn (Big Bets on Campus podcast)

Main Points:

• Indiana’s “Immaculate” Coaching Turnaround (Doc Nunn, 49:23):
  • "This is the greatest coaching job in the history of college athletics... immaculate."
• Miami’s “Home” Game, but Neutralized:
  • Hard Rock Bet gives Miami only a two-point HFA bump (“not a true home atmosphere,” per sportsbook SVP and Nunn, 52:54).
• Betting Angles:
  • Doc Nunn (54:27): “I laid the 8.5 with Indiana... better in the trenches, discipline, special teams.”
  • Miami heavily penalized; Indiana elite red zone defense.
  • Sharp money on Hoosiers; heavy public/Miami money in Florida.
• Exotic/Prop Recommendations:
  • Charlie Becker (Indiana WR) over 2.5 receptions
  • First quarter under (expect a feeling-out, sluggish start)
  • Parlay: Becker receptions + first quarter under + punt on first drives (57:56)
  • “Parlay those, you get about four and a half to one.”

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Coaching firings (Tomlin, Harbaugh), art of not overreacting: 02:23–07:05
• Sharp vs. square market moves, divisional round overview: 07:05–10:46
• Bills-Broncos full breakdown: 11:52–22:08
• 49ers-Seahawks analysis: 22:08–28:36
• Patriots-Texans breakdown, Brass Balls Under: 30:54–34:38
• Rams-Bears weather, line moves, matchup analysis: 35:23–43:48
• Biggest bets, picks, parlay building: 43:51–46:54
• NCAA CFB National Championship/Indiana's run w/ Doc Nunn: 46:54–59:49

Episode Summary Table

| Game | Line (as of recording) | Sharp (Pros) Side | Public (Squares) Side | Totals Trend | Best Bet(s) | |---------------------------|-----------------------|------------------------|------------------------|--------------------|------------------------------------------------| | Bills at Broncos | DEN -1 | Early: Broncos +1.5 | Bills | Lean Under | 1st half under (wait); avoid side | | 49ers at Seahawks | SF -7 | 49ers (esp. +7.5) | Some over (public) | Under | 49ers +7.5; Under | | Texans at Patriots | NE -3 | Patriots | Texans | Under | Under 41 (Brass Balls Bet), lean Patriots -3 | | Rams at Bears | LAR -4 | Rams (some pro splits) | Bears | Under, 1st half U | 1st half under 24.5/24 (best); lean Rams |

Final Thought

Sharp or Square’s Divisional Playoffs episode delivers sharp market insight, vivid betting psychology, and real-time contest advice—anchored by honest, entertaining banter and a knowledge-rich breakdown of every playoff and major college football game. For bettors and fans seeking both edges and entertainment, Chad and Simon provide a valuable weekly compass.

For the most current picks and more analysis, catch their Saturday morning live preview and Sunday evening recap on Sharper Square’s YouTube channel and podcast feed.