Sharp or Square: NFL Week 14 Bets

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Episode Date: December 4, 2025
Main Theme:
Chad and Simon break down the key NFL Week 14 matchups, analyzing betting positions from both "sharps" (professional gamblers) and "squares" (public bettors). They assess line value, team situations, and the impact of weather and injuries, all while debating which sides are genuinely sharp this week and laying out their favorite bets and contest picks.

Episode Overview

Chad and Simon dive in-depth into the numbers, narratives, and market moves surrounding major NFL Week 14 games. They debate sharp vs. square sides, analyze professional betting group trends, and identify their favorite positions for both spreads and moneyline parlays. Along the way, they discuss the current state of teams (Steelers’ locker room drama, the aging Packers, Mahomes as a short favorite, and more) and offer actionable advice for bettors.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Steelers Drama & Mike Tomlin Discourse

• Chad & Simon discuss Ben Roethlisberger’s recent podcast comments suggesting Mike Tomlin should leave for college football, which both hosts deride as misguided and out-of-touch.
• Chad: “Mike Tomlin’s been a brilliant coach for 20 years. I can name 10 teams right now that would kill to have Mike Tomlin be their head coach. Am I wrong?” (07:14)
• Both agree Tomlin isn’t the Steelers' core issue and highlight how knee-jerk reactions ignore roster construction challenges.

“Sharp Calls” Segment – Which Sides the Pros Love

(09:11–11:33)

• Games attracting sharp money:
  • Cincinnati Bengals (but interest waning as line moves from +6 to +5.5)
  • Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Atlanta Falcons
  • Minnesota Vikings (pros believe Daniels won’t play)
  • New Orleans Saints (+8.5)
  • NY Jets
  • Cleveland Browns
  • Arizona Cardinals (big dog spot)
• Split sharp action: Houston vs. Kansas City (groups on both sides, line watching important)
• Sharp fade: Eagles (pros love the Chargers due to Eagles' recent dysfunction)

Sharper Square Pick 'Em Contest Launch

(11:36–18:36)

• New free contest through Super Bowl Sunday where listeners compete against Chad & Simon.
• Picks: five games against the spread each week; tiebreakers begin next week.
• Contest lines dynamically reflect the market but always use half points.
• Grand prize: Trip and tickets to Miami Heat v. Memphis Grizzlies game in Florida.

Game-by-Game Analysis & Betting Angles

Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys (Quick Hit)

• Chad: Avoiding the game due to perfect line and heavy public Dallas money. Favors Lions for “book” reasons. (19:26–19:57)

Washington +1.5 at Minnesota (Hard Rock Bet “Simon Says”)

• Quarterback uncertainty: Pros love Minnesota (anticipate Daniels out, favor Mariota as a serviceable backup).
• Line move: Sharp money pushed Vikings from -1.5 to -2.5.
• Simon: “I'm just shocked the numbers move so much where we don’t even know who the quarterback is going to be…” (22:19)
• Betting advice: Wait for clarity—take +2.5 if possible.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5)

• Both hosts confront their bias against Trevor Lawrence, ultimately agreeing with professionals that Jaguars are the right side.
• Key insight: “This is a Jags line, a Jags spot, and this Colts team… feels like we’re holding biases from earlier in the year.” (29:23)
• Watch line and lean on model projections.

Miami Dolphins at NY Jets (+3)

• Public loves Dolphins; pros on Jets.
• Weather an important factor—line swung due to earlier snow forecast that dissipated.
• Chad: “Jets are the wise guy side. What I don’t get is why hasn’t it come back down…” (34:21)
• Simon: “Tyrod Taylor, his last 8 starts, he’s 7-0-1 ATS.” (35:32)
• Both lean Jets, but wary of consensus and possible overconfidence.

Cleveland Browns (-3.5) vs. Tennessee Titans

• Sharp money loves Titans: Pushed line down from 5.5 to 3.5.
• Hosts see value in Browns’ defense at home, weather likely influential, and point out that professionals are mostly betting against Browns QB, not their defense.
• Totals angle: 33.5—a low total typically means take the dog, but Chad and Simon favor Browns due to defensive edge.

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (+7)

• Split opinions: Simon backs Atlanta (sharp side, losing close games habit), Chad likes Seattle (public side, sees Falcons as too depleted).
• Not a contest pick, but instructive on evaluating discrepancy between sharp trends and current team state.

Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (Brass Balls Bet)

• Brass Balls Bet of the Week: Backing Ravens despite Tomlin as a big dog—rare contrarian to the classic trend.
• Bears noting Ravens “should” be -7 based on models.
• Chad: “It’s the rare time we are not backing the rah rah Mike Tomlin spot. All betting is a risk… this is really a bet against Aaron Rodgers, the inability of this offense to move the ball…” (46:29)
• Both believe Pittsburgh’s defense is aging rapidly and Ravens' defense can dominate.

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (-5.5)

• Bengals are public dog; pro money came when line was at 6+
• Simon is “hesitant” due to Joe Burrow’s elite underdog ATS record.
• Weather could be a deciding factor (wait for Sunday).

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

• Market is split; public heavy on Bears, but Packers also have support.
• Chad jokes of “waking up from a dream about the Bears.”
• Historical trends make Bears as public dog a red flag. Packers have struggled to cover as big favorites.

Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals

• Both hosts comfortable siding with Rams despite professional money coming in on the big home dog.
• Caution about backdoor risk with Jacoby Brissett but think Rams can dominate Arizona’s weak defense.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

• Both love Chiefs at -3 at home in a “must-have” game.
• Chiefs' recent struggle to win/cover close games acknowledged, but trust in Mahomes at home outweighs concerns.
• Simon: “I'm willing to see Mahomes die here, but this is the type of game… he's just not going to go quietly into the night.” (64:46)

Philadelphia Eagles at LA Chargers (Quick Hit)

• Both surprised that pros are so heavily on Chargers (injuries abound), while algorithm likes Eagles.
• Chad: “The hate has gone too far… Feels way too easy getting Eagles -2.5 against a one handed Herbert.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Mike Tomlin and Steelers Turmoil:

• Chad: “Anything you say before ‘but’ is a lie... Maybe [Tomlin] should go coach Penn State. Come on.” (06:58)
• Simon: “Tomlin laughed at it… the disrespect of that man, to ask him that question is ridiculous.” (08:15)

On Betting Bias:

• Simon: “It's hard not to have your biases of Trevor Lawrence. He just does such egregious stuff every week...” (30:32)

On Weather & Injury Influence:

• Simon: “If we wake up Sunday, Chad, and it is 25 degrees, a little bit of rain, kind of windy… I will have to put [the Jets] in.” (37:17)
• Chad (on Daniel Jones): “The leg really isn’t an issue unless he has to move laterally, which is like 50% of the move.” (32:01)

On Betting “the right side”:

• Chad: “We're definitely going to revisit [the Jets] Sunday for a contest. I have a feeling… my gut alarm bells here.” (35:53)

On Chiefs Must-Win:

• Simon: “I'm happy to admit… I'm willing to see Mahomes die here, but this is the exact type of game... he's going to fight to the last second.” (64:46)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Steelers Drama/Tomlin: 06:58–08:44
• Sharp Calls Segment: 09:11–11:33
• Contest Launch: 11:36–18:36
• Cowboys-Lions Line Analysis: 19:26–19:57
• Washington-Minnesota QB/Line Movement: 19:57–24:43
• Colts-Jaguars – Trusting the Jags: 27:44–32:42
• Dolphins at Jets Analysis: 33:48–37:32
• Browns-Titans Totals/Sharp Sides: 39:02–42:27
• Seahawks-Falcons Public/Sharp Split: 42:27–46:00
• Brass Balls Bet—Ravens-Steelers: 46:04–51:09
• Bengals-Bills “Dog Stat” & Weather: 51:29–54:44
• Bears at Packers Market Reflection: 54:49–58:26
• Rams-Cardinals—Fading the “Wise Guys”: 59:30–61:44
• Texans at Chiefs—Short Favorite Magic: 61:44–64:46
• Eagles-Chargers—Sharp Consensus Counterplay: 65:16–67:22
• Biggest Bets Recap: 72:26–73:18
• Underdog Parlay & Favorites Parlay: 73:18–74:41
• Sharp vs. Square Picks: 74:58–76:08

Contest “Biggest Bets” and Parlay Recommendations

• Simon’s largest positions: Saints, Washington, Jaguars (as dogs), Browns, Ravens, Chiefs (as favorites)
• Underdog Moneyline Parlay: Jaguars, Jets, Washington
• Favorites Parlay: Rams (-5.5), Seattle (-5.5), Kansas City, Baltimore, Denver (take spread not just ML if possible)

Final Thoughts

Betting Philosophy through the Week:
Chad and Simon repeatedly advise patience with line moves, waiting on injury/weather reports, and not letting early-week consensus blind you to late-breaking market signals. They're candid about their own biases and changing opinions, modeling rigorous but flexible decision-making for serious NFL bettors.

Listener Engagement:
A major theme is community-building—listeners are encouraged to join contests, challenge Chad & Simon, and interact via socials for support and debate.

This episode is a must-listen for bettors looking for a nuanced and practical breakdown of week 14’s trickiest NFL markets, loaded with sharp-vs-square insight, actionable betting advice, and a lot of camaraderie and fun banter.

For more, catch them on YouTube (SharperSquare), Apple Podcasts, or Spotify. Picks, banter, and sharp betting action continue every week through Super Bowl Sunday.