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Chad Millman
This is an iHeart podcast.
Simon Hunter
Guaranteed Human.
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Simon Hunter
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Sophie Cunningham
This is Sophie Cunningham and West Wilson.
Wes Wilson
From Show Me Something.
Sophie Cunningham
The second the weather drops, I'm instantly in holiday mode. Sweaters. Comfort food. All of it. And nothing hits better on a cold day than unwrapping an Arby's Classic Roast Beef.
Wes Wilson
Facts when that tender, slow roast beef is warm and juicy, it's like soul therapy. And if you're feeling a little extra like we usually are, go for the.
Sophie Cunningham
Double Dude Double Roast Beef, Double beef and Cheddar. Twice the meat, twice the happiness.
Wes Wilson
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Sophie Cunningham
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Chad Millman
And Doug Here we have the Limu Emu in its natural habitat, helping people customize their car insurance and save hundreds with Liberty Mutual. Fascinating it's accompanied by his natural ally, Doug Limu.
Simon Hunter
Is that guy with the binoculars watching us?
Chad Millman
Cut the camera. They see us. Only pay for what you need@libertymutual.com Liberty. Liberty.
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Chad Millman
Insurance Company Affiliates excludes Massachusetts.
Simon Hunter
Welcome to Sharper Square. Presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Volume Podcast network. This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
Chad Millman
Chad. How goes it, brother?
Simon Hunter
We're going to give more details about the contest in a minute. People have been signing up, which is great. I don't know if you know this, but you and I signed up and people will be able to compete against us in the contest, for which I will give more details on how to sign up in a minute. Our team name. Simon. Are you ready to hear what our team name is? Chad and Simon BFFs. Chad and Simon BFFs. That's how you're going to find us in the contest. Hello, Simon.
I think I forgot to say it, didn't I?
Chad Millman
No, you said it, but I like it. You're just fired up.
Simon Hunter
I completely forgot. I don't remember. Listen, I can just imagine walking around.
Chad Millman
His house yelling, hello, Simon.
Simon Hunter
I do. Well, I yell like in a, in accents all the time. And like over the holidays we had like two hours where there wasn't simmering tension between various stepmoms and mother in laws. And that was when like me, my wife, our two boys, my dad, his wife and my mother in law, we gathered around the fireplace which I had built the fire and it was glorious. And we were playing different games. And one of the games required you to say certain words or guess what an accent is. And at one point like there was a English accent and a Scottish accent and it was my moment to shine because I have been doing bad English and Scottish accents around my house, I think since the day my kids were born. And it was so exciting because they got it immediately. It was the only time I could really contribute to the game.
Chad Millman
I always joke my, my biggest negative when I go to England is I can't stop doing people's accents back to them. And it's like kind of like what you're doing. It's like I'm not even trying to be disrespectful. I like, I have like a parrot syndrome. If I hear something, I Just repeat it back. And the big one is my uncle has a dog named Nelly. And anytime Nelly does anything goes no Nelly. And I swear, for about no Nelly two weeks, all I said, anything anyone asked me anything go no Nelly, no Simon.
Simon Hunter
I love it. I love it. All right, this is our week 14 episode. We're going to narrow down the options to get to our final five. It's going to be harder than we think. In our pregame and our pre show convo, it felt like we were split on some games. Subscribe Watch on YouTube at sharpersquare, Apple pods, Spotify. Listen, Simon, we're going to get into the Steelers and the Ravens game, but the big news this week, like, there is just crazy, crazy drama that we have not seen in the Steelers locker room or with the Steelers generally since Mike Tomlin has been coach. Like, they signed Adam Thielen, so clearly all their downfield passing issues are just going to go away. I kid, but the bigger news, Ben Roethlisberger on his podcast said, I love Mike Tomlin, but. And everyone knows anything you say before but is a lie. I love Mike Tomlin, but maybe he should go coach Penn State. Come on. Because Simon, I don't get this. A Mike Tomlin's not building that roster. He's not the one who signed T.J. watt to a massive $40 million guaranteed deal for next year. He's not the one who signed Jalen Ramsey and traded away make A Fitzpatrick. He's not the one who gave Cam Hayward a new deal after he sat out during training gap. He's not the one who signed Aaron Rodgers leg. He's not the one who traded for DK Metcalf. I know he's involved in all these conversations, but there's a lot of blame to go around. This roster is not good enough. And we're going to get into that. But dude, Mike Tomlin's been a Brilliant coach for 20 years. I can name 10 teams right now that would kill to have Mike Tomlin be their head coach. Am I wrong? Am I wrong that, like, Mike Tomlin is not really the problem here?
Chad Millman
No. And Big Ben is part of the problem of all these ex athletes having podcasts. And I get it, everyone wants to share their opinions and stuff like that, but that just sounds like a bitter old man. Ben Roethlisberger, that's just. I don't know why he's holding grudges against Tomlin, but to think a man like that, a caliber of coaching who's taken at a joke of a team These last couple years to the playoffs every year and, you know, think that man might go to Penn State. Like you just said, if you're, if you're the Raiders, like, all these different organizations that just, please, for 20 years, you would die to bring in a Mike Tomlin type to get this, get the organization right. So very, very bizarre of Roethlisberger saying, I think it's another thing of an athlete maybe having stuff we don't know about behind closed doors that he's holding grudges against Tomlin because rationally, doesn't make any sense.
Simon Hunter
Like, no sense.
Chad Millman
Yeah, makes zero sense. So, yeah, I think Tomlin laughed at it basically, when they asked him about it, just being like, I gotta hear. I gotta talk about this stupid again. Because it feels like every year they're asking if he'd ever go to college, and it's like, dude, the disrespect of that man, to ask him that question is ridiculous.
Simon Hunter
Raiders, Titans, Giants, I mean, the list goes on.
Chad Millman
I'm a psychopath Eagles fan. Like, I love Sirianni. I would, I would take. Honestly, I mean, I, I do respect Sirianni, but what are we doing here? I, I. Tomlin's a Hall of Famer.
Simon Hunter
All right, let's get into this thing. Every week, we give it our peaks. Every week, Simon's fellow professional betters call to yell at him about those picks. It's time to summarize those opinions. It's time for chef calls.
Chad Millman
I have to answer this phone.
Sophie Cunningham
All right.
Chad Millman
Rain, Rain, telephone ring.
Snapdragon Announcer
Somebody say it.
Chad Millman
Yeah, I'll start. Where I got killed, which I knew was coming. I was on. I'm on a lot of chalk. I would say. Shocking to no one. Pros, they really like Cincinnati, but like I said, I did believe they liked him at the 6, and I haven't heard too much love for them at the five and a half, which is where that number is. But tons of calls about Cincinnati and how that's going to be the right side. Tons of love for Pittsburgh, tons of love for, you know, not shockingly, this Atlanta team that is in a unique spot, a game I didn't really, you know, talk too much about. And, you know, a ton of love for Dallas, which we talk a little bit about. But the biggest one I got wrong, obviously, is this Minnesota game. I got a ton of calls about pros who love Minnesota. They don't think Daniels is playing. They love this matchup defensively for Minnesota against Mariota, coming on the road, if it is going to be him and yeah, that's. That's a game I just simply got wrong. I, I'm still on Washington. I still like them as a dog, especially the fact that it's up two and a half at a lot of books right now. But I was shocked to hear so many pros are coming in on this Minnesota side and they just love jj. I don't get it. I, I will never get it. They love the coming of the year. They've kind of haven't budged on it. And you've seen it this week, the way that numbers move. So those are the games that kind of gotten wrong, the ones they loved. Our picks on. Love the Saints plus eight and a half. Love this jets team that we've talked about. Loved our love for this Cleveland team, you know, Chicago. I talked to a couple really smart groups that are on it. I still think that's a Green Bay line. When it's under seven. I still think that's a Green Bay line. So that'll be a fun one to discuss. We want to get into it. Tons of love for Atlanta. Already talked a little bit about that one. Arizona, you know, not a shocker with such a big number. I knew the pros would be on that one. And that Chiefs game is kind of a flip flop. I've heard groups on both sides of it, so there's not really one side that they love. Right. If you can get the three in the Chiefs, I know some really smart groups have come in on and same with a three and a half. There are tons of professional groups that took early positions on that Houston side and the last one. Pains from. Pains for me to hear. The pros absolutely love this Chargers team against the Eagles. They love the matchup for them and what we've talked about, there's all the dysfunction, all the noise around this Eagles team. I think they view it as another spot to keep riding, you know, the fade of this Eagles team. But like I said, I think if it's two and a half, that's an Eagles line. So that's gonna be a fun where I, I'm. I got. I have a couple games I going against the pros. For the most part, it's all the chalk. Like I'm just on chalk this week and like every week. The pros just love the dogs.
Simon Hunter
Simon, you'll always be my pro.
Chad Millman
Thanks, buddy.
Simon Hunter
You know why?
Chad Millman
Yeah.
Simon Hunter
Chad and Simon BFFs. Which reminds me, the free Sharp or Square pro football pick them contest is officially live and ready for your picks at Sharp or square.thevolume.com Go sign up. I already did. I got me and my buddy Simon in there. We'll bring back producer Matt Mitchell to share all the details. But one small note, there's no tiebreaker just for this week. Tiebreaker questions will start next week. If you can't find it, we've been getting some questions about that. That is why no tiebreaker this week. It is a balmy five degrees in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Milliwauke Perfect contest weather. Here's producer Matt Mitchell with all the info. All right, Matt Mitchell, people can go sign up. Can you please tell everybody how they can do that?
Matt Mitchell
Yes. Very excited that the contest is officially live. You can just go to sharp or square.the volume.com to sign up for this totally free contest and you can make your Week 14 picks right away. It'll be the same website and your same login throughout the entire contest.
Simon Hunter
How long will this totally free contest run?
Matt Mitchell
Okay, so it starts this week, which is week 14 and it'll run this time through Super Bowl Sunday. So that's nine total contest weeks. But you've got to hurry up and sign up because registration for this free Contest closes at 1pm Eastern kickoff this Sunday, December 7th.
Simon Hunter
Matt, tell everyone how the contest works.
Matt Mitchell
It couldn't be easier. You just select five games against the spread each week along with one tiebreaker question. And again, tiebreakers start next week. No tiebreaker this week. And once we hit the middle of the playoffs and the slates get smaller, we may include some totals and a player proper to just to beef it up. But for right now it's just five games against the spread and during the regular season. Deadline to submit your picks will be 1pm Eastern on Sundays and you can always see where you stand with everybody else using the leaderboard function which is also at sharp or square.the volume.com the.
Simon Hunter
Most important question Matt, as we have been getting comments on this all year long, will these lines that we are all playing together against each other in good fun, will these lines move?
Matt Mitchell
Yes, the lines in this contest, the Sharper Square Pro Football Pick em contest, are dynamic as they've been the last two seasons. So they'll move with the market throughout the week. But be advised, these are still contest lines so they'll always end in half points to avoid ties. All picks must win or lose. So yes, the contest lines will move.
Simon Hunter
Dynamic lines. How or what actually are people going to win? What is the grand prize?
Matt Mitchell
Okay, so grand prize, the contest winner and a guest will be flown to warm, wonderful South Florida, where they will enjoy a complimentary two night stay at the beautiful Seminole Hard Rock Hotel and Casino along with tickets to The Memphis Grizzlies vs. Miami Heat game on February 21st.
Simon Hunter
Very important. Can people change their picks during the week?
Matt Mitchell
Yes. If you want to make any changes to your picks, you just need to cancel your entry and make all five picks again. At the bottom of your finished ent, there's a little button that says cancel and play again. You click that, it cancels your entry. You make your picks again at the current contest lines. Easy peasy.
Simon Hunter
Is there a tiebreaker?
Matt Mitchell
Yes. So this contest is only nine weeks long, so the tiebreaker is going to be really important as it has traditionally been. It will be total passing yards in a selected game, typically Monday Night Football. In the event of a tie at the end of this contest, the winner will be decided by the lowest tiebreaker differential. So when you submit your picks, do not forget to put in your tiebreaker answer.
Simon Hunter
Matt Will all of the games be included as available contest picks?
Matt Mitchell
So we do not include Thursday Night Football in the contest? We never have, probably because those games are an abomination. But generally speaking, all other games will.
Simon Hunter
Be available to choose who can play in this contest.
Matt Mitchell
Matt okay, you just need to be 21 years or older as of today and located in the United States. So sorry Canadians and Brits and all our international listeners. The only US States that are excluded are Rhode island and Washington State.
Simon Hunter
Tell me why.
Matt Mitchell
They have tricky rules about free to play games. So like if you live in Newport or Seattle or whatever, call your congressman. I don't ask me. I have no idea. But I wish you the best of luck anyway.
Simon Hunter
All right, well, listen, thank you Matt for the FAQs, thank you for all the work getting the contest ready to roll. Thank you to our sponsors at Hard Rock Bet for working through the entire challenging regulatory process with us so we could bring this to you guys. Better late than never. Go sign up for the contest. It is open and ready to roll right now. All the picks that we're talking about on Sunday will be based on these contest lines. So there'll be no questions about where you get in that line. Why are you betting stale lines? Like every line we're betting is going to be the same lines that everybody else is seeing.
Chad Millman
And the 95% of you that listen on the podcast, which, you know, most our fans do listen via podcast, we put it on socials too. If you're confused by anything, hop on there. Matt Mitchell's happy to Help you as well if you, you just want to DM them or add them or anything like that. You know, we, we know it's very late in the season and it's a quick turnaround here, but really appreciate all the people that signed up so early. And like we keep saying, it's type of thing where the more of you that sign up, the cooler stuff we will be able to do in the future. So we love the support we're getting from all the fans and come prove you're better than me and Chad. Let's see it, people.
Simon Hunter
I love when you, when you.
When you give appreciation to the fans. I think it's fantastic. Shows your true spirit. It shows that you really, really are a good person deep down.
Chad Millman
Well, I used to hate them. I'll be the first to. I used to hate the fans. But then we did a bunch of live shows and you quickly realize you're only hearing 10% of the assholes online. The 90% of these people are awesome, cool people that just want to, you know, learn, get better at betting football and love football. So I've grown to really appreciate our fan base and how cool so many of them are.
Simon Hunter
I love that about you. All right, listen, you can find our producer Matt Mitchell to yell at. Go to at sharp or Square Underscore. The little underscore at the end of it is key. At Sharper Square Underscore. Let's get into it. Simon, you mentioned Dallas. We. Let's talk about Dallas and Detroit for a second. Detroit is a three point favorite. We're not going to spend too much time on it. We can't put it in the contest because Thursday games are ineligible. But it's a really interesting game. I don't think I'm going to bet it. Like, I think I'm just going to sit it out. I think it's. It's got to be. I think it's lined perfectly right. Like. It feels so public to bet the Cowboys. I'm not getting the hook. It's not going to two and a half. The Lions, I think, have real issues either. Reverse biases coming into play for me, maybe.
But I don't like the number.
Chad Millman
Totally fair. I'm going to touch the stove. I'm going to bet the Lions. I can't help it. I just. Chad just nailed it. I'm clearly stuck in the past.
But I am just so scared off about how much public love this Cowboys team. And like you just said, the number has not budged off the three despite we've Had a day and a half now of not just professional money, public money as well, hammering this Cowboy side. So I'll bet with the books. I'll take the lines. But yeah, very, very low confidence in this bet. I just. This Lions team just seems totally lost.
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Washington plus one and a half at Minnesota at Hard Rock Bet. Washington plus one and a half was the Simon says bet of the week presented by Hard Rock Bet. I think we made that. When you thought Jaden Daniels might be playing. It's looking more and more like Marcus Mariota is going to be the quarterback. And this line has now moved to two. You said there's two and a halfs out there.
I think in this bet. I'm with you. I don't see what the love is for The Vikings if JJ McCarthy is your quarterback because he is just so ineffective, he has not been able to move the ball in any capacity. So are you just thinking that it's going to be a 3 nothing game? Like if you're betting on the Vikings? Like what are you looking at here to make you feel good about betting on this Vikings team? I know it sounds stupid.
Marcus Mariota is now sort of has enough pass attempts to be eligible for all the rankings. He's a mediocre, serviceable mid level quarterback who has been in the pantheon of backup quarterbacks recently and certainly this year one of the better ones. And so I'm with you. I favor Washington here. Everyone is banking on the fact that Brian Flores is going to be able to confuse Marcus Mariota to a degree. He's going to turn this game over. That's got to be what it is, right?
Chad Millman
Yeah. Yeah. And I've had just a lot of guys who are really heavy on this Minnesota Tide just said you need to kind of go back and really dive into how bad this team has been for the commanders. Right. With everything that's going on behind the scenes. And that's fair. Like their last couple games, even though it was a jugging out of a schedule, they went to Kansas City, they got blown out 7 to 28. Then they played a Seahawks team at home, got blown out 38, 14, then played Detroit at home, lost 44 to 22. So that's fair. Right. And then they've kind of played well these last two weeks where, you know, Miami, I think that was in Madrid, they lost 16 to 13. They feel like they could have won and covered that game a million different ways. Right. I remember the kicker. I didn't miss kick. It was just a total train wreck. And then that Denver game, another game where it felt like they could have covered and won it outright in a bunch of different ways. They lose by one. The obvious got the COVID but that was the first time they had covered in about four or five weeks. So I get what they're saying, right? That this, this Washington team is just bad, right? Defensively and you really dive into it. As bad as JJ is, you would think wide receivers, but I'll take advantage of a really bad secondary. Like Chad just said that you're banking a lot on JJ McCarthy and make these completions. And you know, Justin Jefferson hasn't been blowing up in the media, but you can see him on the field, his body language, everything he's doing, he's just so over it, sick of this whole experience. So I, I really am just playing the number here. Like Chad just said, there's two and a half's out there, a couple of very public books. I'm gonna have to take that number even if it is Mariota. I still feel like this game should be closer to a pick than it is at minus two and a half for this Minnesota side. So not shocking. The pros love this Minnesota team so much. I'm just shocked. The numbers move so much where we don't even know who the quarterback is going to be, where Daniels is practicing. It's just limited. And that's why the number has moved in my opinion. Because like Chad said, you know, I talked a little bit on Tuesday, people I've talked to behind the scenes in Washington, they don't want him to play, right. They're, they just want the kid to take a full time heel, come back next year when it matters. But he's such a competitor. He's pushing the play because he, he wants to. Right. He's not a guy that when he's healthy, wants to sit out. So I, I'm really interesting how it plays out because right now it's organization versus the quarterback and we'll see what side the head coach picks. But I think this head coach, like we've talked about these different coaches, you see the way they coach at the end of these games where they want to be next year. It feels like Dan Quinn, he's happy to follow the organization's lead here and maybe set his quarterback. So be patient here. Like I, I gave it out. Simon says, obviously I was wrong. The number could keep moving up. If it is the two and a half at your book, you can get it right now I would grab but at one and a half I'd be patient, see if you can get a better number too.
Simon Hunter
Jaden Daniels said. I don't rehab to sit so we know he wants to get on the field so it's going to be an interesting sort of tug and pull there. If he doesn't play this week, you know, are they going to let him come back and play? Week 15 Week 16 Week 17 like as the season gets closer to the end, what's really the point if this team is completely out of the playoffs.
Chad Millman
So they play the Eagles twice. So it's like does he want to come back and play? Spoiler against a divisional Poe. I could see it maybe if he was a 10 year vet. It's his second year. Does he really have that much against the Eagles that he's like, no, I need to come back for these last two weeks to play. I just don't see it. So I'm with you. It's it's a really fun situation where the competitor in him wants to play. But the organization's smart. They're trying to protect them long term.
Simon Hunter
They're thinking they've been through this with RG3.
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Simon Hunter
PayPal.
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Learn more@paypal.com yo, it's DJ Wells here. The NBA on Prime is back tonight with another great double hitter. It starts with a legendary robbery as Luka and the Lakers face Jaylen Brown and the Celtics. Then Cooper Flag and the Mavericks meet SGA and and the Thunder. If you're not a Prime member, just sign up for 30 day free trial period. Lakers, Celtics, Mavs Thunder cover starts at 6:30pm Eastern time only on prom. Restrictions apply. See Amazon.com Amazon prime for details.
Chad Millman
And Doug Here we have the Limu Emu in its natural habitat helping people customize their car insurance and save hundreds with Liberty Mutual. Fascinating. It's accompanied by his natural ally, Doug Limu.
Wes Wilson
Is that guy with the binoculars watching us?
Chad Millman
Cut the camera. They see us.
Wes Wilson
Only pay for what you need@liberty mutual.com.
Chad Millman
Liberty Liberty Liberty Liberty Savings Ferry unwritten by Liberty Mutual Insurance Co. Affiliates excludes.
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Sophie Cunningham
This is Sophie Cunningham and Wes Wilson.
Wes Wilson
From Show Me Something.
Sophie Cunningham
When the weather gets cold, I immediately turn into holiday mode. Sophie I want comfort food, cozy blankets and literally anything warm.
Wes Wilson
Same and nothing.
Simon Hunter
Nothing.
Wes Wilson
Nothing warms you up faster than opening a classic Arby's roast beef.
Sophie Cunningham
It's like edible comfort, slow roasted, tender, juicy. It's basically a heated blanket you can eat.
Wes Wilson
It's like soul therapy. And if you're feeling a little extra like we usually are, go for the double Arby's double Roast beef. You guessed it. Stack tall with double the meat or.
Sophie Cunningham
Go full chaos like me and grab the double beef and cheddar, warm beef, cheddar cheese sauce, dripping red ranch onions, and again, double the meat.
Wes Wilson
Holiday season is stressful. Treat yourself to something great. You know what want get an Arby's double roast beef or a double beef and cheddar in store or delivered today.
Sophie Cunningham
Dude, double roast beef, double beef and cheddar. Twice the meat, twice the happiness. Available for a limited time at participating locations while supplies last Bam.
Simon Hunter
Indianapolis at Jacksonville. Jacksonville. It's a one and a half point underdog at home. I'm going to tell you this one lit up our comments in YouTube on Tuesday after the show, I went in and answered some questions about it. People felt that I had a bias against the Jags. And I do. I do have a bias against the Jags.
Chad Millman
I think I do too. So we both do.
Simon Hunter
Like, I don't think Trevor Lawrence is a very good quarterback. Like.
That'S a bias. Because it's true. Because he hasn't performed at the level at which he is paid, at which he was drafted, at which the expectations are for him. Like that's just a fact. So the reason this team has been playing well and is in contention is because of Liam Cohn, who by the way, maybe he should be coach of the year for dragging this team to 8 and 4 in the middle of December. Right. But the truth is I do have a bias against Trevor Lawrence. And yet in the show on Tuesday, when I said I feel like I want to bet the Colts, I still listed all the reasons in which I'm afraid of betting the Colts. And by the end of the show. By the end of that segment, you had completely turned me around. And this line did get to plus two for a second and now it's been bet back down to one and a half. This is like clearly the line of demarcation for the wise guys is two. I feel like you and I have probably come around and are going to be betting the Jags because I'm, I'm, I'm worried about Daniel Jones. That's, to me, the issue.
Chad Millman
Worried about Daniel Jones. And like we talked about the secondary of this Colts team there. There are some major questions about them. When you ex, you can exploit them like the Jags should be able to. This feels like a great matchup for them. So really fun game to dive more into this past couple days and just hearing the pulse of what the pros were going to do with the one, I, I kind of knew they'd be on the Jaguars, but I was just interested because this number, like Chad said, there's a couple twos that have touched. So it's like, okay, is there professional money coming in on the Colts or is there something I'm missing here? And, you know, I've heard maybe one or two groups have come into the Colts, but just the majority of guys I've talked to, kind of the same mentality us here. This is a Jags line, a Jag spot, and this Colts team, it feels like we've talked about a couple of these games. We feel like we're holding biases from earlier in the year. In this type of game where we, we know the Colts, when they're going right, they are the better team. Right. There's no doubt about it. When everything's clicking offensively, then we both agree we would have trust Daniel Jones much more than we trust Trevor Lawrence. And many aspects, especially this season where, you know Daniel Jones, if you go back and look, he was so great against the blitz when he was fully healthy and mobile again, he was even running the ball that much. Just his pocket presence was incredible during the year. You've seen these last three, four weeks, whatever the injury is, maybe it's pushing off. It's so painful. Whatever it is, it's in his own head. He's just been taking sacks. Usually when he's been reading the hot route and making the first read and having, you know, good throws and tough pockets, he's not been that same way. And defensively, we've seen this, this Jaguars team, yes, they do have weaknesses, obviously, and they're linebackers in their secondary but that D line which they've drafted so well these last couple years, it's a strength. They have guys that can pressure quarterbacks here. So you know, matchup wise, I really like this Jaguars team and we talked a little bit about it. This, this number should be closer to a pick. Our general public, like my model has it a minus three for the Jaguars, which I still think is insane. I can't believe it loves the Jaguars that much. So really unique spot here back in this Jaguars team that, you know, they're kind of left for dead by the public even though they've been winning and covering these last couple weeks. So I think people are just like us where it's hard not to have your biases of Trevor Lawrence. He just does such egregious stuff every week. It's hard. Not that the linger in the back of your mind, but trust the models. People here, trust the professionals. Back back this Jaguars team. And yeah, I'm glad I, I wasn't all in once again on the Colts on Tuesday because Sunday night me and Chad both said, yeah, we thought that was a good cold, slumbering. Yeah, I quickly realized the error in my ways and yeah, this Jaguar is number. I could just see it dipping. Like you said, it's got up to two a couple books. The more pros I talked to, seems like more money's going to come to this Jaguar side and this could easily flip come game time. So definitely grab the jags if you can. Right now.
Simon Hunter
Daniel Jones said the leg really isn't an issue unless he has to move laterally, which is like 50% of the move. Right. Like you got to move right to left and forwards and backwards. So that is a little bit of a scary prospect to be betting on a guy who's struggling to move when he's going to get some pressure. And also the Colts, like their defensive line have some injuries and that's impactful against a running game. And you know, I, I think both coaches are really good. I think there's no real advantage there. I think Liam Cohen is doing a remarkable job with subpar talent at the quarterback position.
Chad Millman
Yeah, he also had the, the most Duke conversation ever where he said his buddies who he went to college with have invented this like fake prosthetic party puts on his pads that protects the injured area. And it made me think of, I have a, an aunt that lives down in Durham, North Carolina. And I was probably, probably 22. I, I just really dove into becoming a professional better. I'm flying down to go visit her And I'm sitting next to a kid same age as me, 22, 23, flying back to, to college where he goes to Duke and he does heart research. I go, that's pretty cool. Again, we're on a totally different path here. Like, I'm a professional better. I go, so what do you guys do? He goes, he pulled out this box. He goes, why build an artificial heart? And it got approved to be put into process. This is like in whatever say like 2012, 2011. And I always think back to this guy is building these fake hearts, artificial hearts at 22, 23. And I was over here like talking about being a professional better. Totally brought me back down and humbled me at that time. I really needed it. So I always think back on the different paths of life and you know, you never know. Like this kid, he's someone that built artificial hearts and extra professional better. We were both just young kids talking about TV shows and movies.
Simon Hunter
All right, that said, we're going to be on the Jacks because I don't think anyone's thinking about a way to fix Daniel Jones broken fibula between now and then. Miami at the New York Jets. The line at Hard Rock is two and a half. Everywhere else it's three. So I would recommend getting the three. I made this Chad's choice when it was the jets two and a half on Tuesday and that seemed to be the only 24 hour window where this wasn't three because it was a three Sunday into Monday. It's been three since Wednesday morning. I bet it at three. I bet it again at three.
So I'm. The Dolphins are getting all the bets on this one. They're the public side for sure. You mentioned in Sharp Call, the Jets are the wise guy side. What I don't get is why hasn't it come back down to two and a half when I know the professional money is coming in on the jets in this game.
Chad Millman
Yeah, honestly, I, I think this has to do with what we talked a little bit about where it's. This game had a lot dictated on the weather and you saw earlier in the week there's supposed to be a huge snowstorm coming through for this game. Now they're saying it's going to blow out, it's going to be sunny. So basically it'll be 31, 32 degrees for kickoff and sunny is what they're predicting right now. Which if you're in Miami and tua, that's as good as it's going to get, right? If you're coming to the northeast in December, you knew it's going to be cold. But if you're not getting any type of horrible wind in MetLife, you're not getting rain or any bad elements like that. Two should be all right, right? The times we've seen him struggle, you know, that was when he was in Buffalo or Kansas City and it was like wind chill of 3 degrees outside and it was just mind numbing. It might not be that bad for him in this spot, but we've seen a times come this jets team, they keep being underrated by the public. Tyra Taylor, we've talked about it. You know, his last eight starts, he's 7, 0 and 1 against the spread.
Simon Hunter
Totes super bowl champion, Pro Bowler.
Chad Millman
Nothing, nothing new for him though. It's just being underrated by the public just seems like that's going to be what's going to be for Tyrod Taylor. Right? They will keep underrating them. So my only issue with Air Chad is we both love this one so much. This tends to be the games that exactly burn us, right?
Simon Hunter
I know, I know, I know. I agree. I totally agree.
Chad Millman
We're definitely going to revisit Sunday for a contest. I, I have like a feeling like I'm getting in a little bit of my gut alarm bells here that we've already hit on black seven straight times. A roulette wheel and we're hitting, we're hitting on black once again. So I, I don't know what to do here where it's like, I think it's the right read, but we are taking a little bit of a risk here that the market might have caught up to Taylor at this point. Because to me, this number feels right. Like my model has it right at this, so my metal has it too. You know, I think we're getting a good number on the jets at two and a half, especially at three. But I get why there's just not a ton of love from most professionals. I've talked to where they're playing the jets, but it's not like they're like, no, you have to bet this. This is the exact spot you want to back this jets team. I feel like they have the same mentality as I do, is like, man, we got away with one last week. Really got to go back to this. Well, hammer this one. But we just, we love, both of us love this matchup. It's just this Miami's defense is so bad, Taylor's gonna be able to move the ball against him. Can they get stops against tua? After, you know, last week two had a terrible game. Historically, when you dive into his trends, he tends to bounce back after really bad games. Every time he, him and McDaniels, it's just that combo, you know, any game he goes without throwing a touch on the following game, he averages 2.3 touchdowns per game. So it's just again, lazy stat, but just shows he tends to bounce back after struggling the game before. So just to be something wary of. But this is another game that if we wake up Sunday, Chad, and it is 25 degrees, a little bit of rain, kind of, kind of windy out, I, I will have to put this one. If there's any type of winter elements in this game, but if it's a perfect sunny day, maybe I'll be able to talk us out of a lot of myself being like, nah, don't, don't, don't go too hard here on this jets team. But I love the Plus 3 and you do as well. So it's gonna be hard to avoid it.
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And I, I agree with you. We, I feel like, and it's totally anecdotal, like when we tend to love a game, lock in a game early in the week, I feel like we, we don't even hesitate to put it into our final five and it always ends up being a game that, that we're out of it in the first quarter.
Chad Millman
Yeah, we've had the blinders on a couple times like that.
Simon Hunter
That's true. Well, let's see if we have the blinders on for the Cleveland Browns at minus three and a half hosting the Tennessee Titans. Huge swings back and forth on this one in a small range like 4 and a half to 4 to 3 and a half to 3 and a half to 4 to 4 and a half, back and forth, back and forth. Look, I dismissed all the noise about Cam Ward's improvements a couple of weeks ago in the show, but if you do look at his numbers, passer rating, lack of interceptions, completion percentage, they are all much, much better since Brian Callahan was fired in week six. And this has been outside of last week a more competitive team. Right. They twice beat down the back door to cover a big number against the Chargers to cover a big number against Seattle. But they haven't played Miles Garrett in Cleveland yet. And so when I'm looking at this game, I'm looking at not Shador Sanders as more than a field goal favorite. I'm looking at Cam Ward having to compete against Miles Garrett.
Chad Millman
Yeah, it's interesting talking to why different pros Love this Tennessee team so much. Right. They've come in very heavy on like this. This number did open a lot of books at five and a half, four and a half. And like Chad said, lot of books quickly move to three and a half. So that's some serious money pushing at a whole point. And I, I couldn't understand why. So I wanted to figure out what people are seeing that I'm missing. And it is a little bit of the Can Ward love.
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Chad Millman
That you just talked about. But it's also, they can't believe that Shador Sanders would be this big of a favor, which I think is a totally fair criticism of him and that team. But like I talked on Tuesday, I don't think this is Shador Sanders line. I truly think this is a defensive line. This is a line that when the bookmakers posted, it's what I'm looking at, my motto, which is like, okay, say the offense is a total zero. In your opinion at least the Browns have a good run game. Like we've seen it through multiple weeks here that they can run the ball pretty consistently. It's just the issue for us, which I think most guys have betting this Brown team is if it's third and seven, third and eight. You definitely have more confidence in Ward, I guess completing that than you do Sanders. Right. But like I've talked about, I think it's just an overreacting. Overreaction to just past week where you go and look at that Raiders game. He was moving pretty well in the pocket, fighting open lanes and I think he only had 11 completions. But still they were big time completions. Right. And that's what you're looking for for Sanders and a young quarterback where Cam Ward we've talked about, he's so erratic that yeah, the numbers have been better, but we talked about a lot of those numbers is late game, you know, passing yards and touchdowns. Like those are fourth quarter stats.
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
Chad Millman
Most defense are playing prevention. Could we get burned by the Browns prevent defense? Sure. But we've seen it this year. This Browns team doesn't usually go into that mode. Like they always play as if they're very desperate. So it just feels like a reaction like the pros have really bet this one and you look at the money splits. You know, the tickets of most books are pretty heavy on the Brown side, but the money is very, very much skewed to this Tennessee side. So I, I really do like this Browns game. It's another game just like the jets when we're. I know it's probably an overreaction on my part to it, but I just think the lines move too much. Like, I don't think the jets should be plus three. I don't think the Browns here should be minus three and a half. It just feels like a too much overreaction by a lot of these professionals. So maybe you'll help us talk us out of it come Sunday chat. But as you said here right now, the Browns are quickly becoming one of my bigger bets. I've taken a pretty large position on the minus 3 now, but I just think it's a unique spot with this Browns defense. Jim Schwartz at home against a rookie on the road in the elements. I, I gotta take the Browns here.
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I'm having a hard time walking away from it.
Chad Millman
Totals 33 and a half. I shouldn't mention that too. So that's another reason pros like the, like the dog here. It's just a total that low with that, that few points. Most pros will just blindly take the dog in that position.
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's a, it's a really, it's a really low number. I'm having a hard time walking away from the Browns and it's entirely because we've had a lot of success betting the Browns as the better defense at home against much, much better teams and better quarterbacks. And then, then what? We're getting in the Titans and so. And with, by the way, worse quarterbacks than Shador Sanders.
Chad Millman
Yeah.
Simon Hunter
Right.
Chad Millman
So I'm weather matter here, like looking at it early again, it's, it's three, four days out, but it's supposed to be flurries of snow, really strong wind and probably in the mid-30s. So this could be another game where the elements play a factor into it.
Simon Hunter
All right. Seattle at Atlanta. Atlanta's a seven point dog right now. We talked a little bit about it on Tuesday.
You and I are split on this game.
Chad Millman
Yeah. You're with the pros.
Simon Hunter
I like the Falcons here and I know it sounds gross to say it, but they keep losing close games. Sam Darnold has not been as good as he was when he started the season the past few games. Kirk Cousins, serviceable. I'm not saying he's great. To me, the one reason that I'm not like going all in on the Falcons yet is because I want to know Drake London's status. He is so important to this team but like very unlikely.
Chad Millman
He hasn't practiced all week. So, you know, and they're 4 and 8. Like are they really going to rush back Their. Their number one player on their team.
Simon Hunter
Absent that. Absent that. This is peak Seattle and the lowest of the low valleys for Atlanta. So I get why the wise guys are on it. I get why it's moved from seven and a half to seven. I'm surprised that you and I are split on this one.
Chad Millman
Yeah. It's just again, Atlanta is a type of team where I'm not saying all the teams they've played in the past are bad, but they have not played a team, in my opinion, on this Seattle level where, you know, they went to New England. I don't know if you remember that game. They lost by one point. It was 24, 23. That's a totally different team at this point. Right. That's with Drake London. That's with Penix at quarterback. Like this is. I don't think they were reacting enough to how bad this Falcons team now is with Kirk at the helmet without Drake London. It's just, you know, their last three games, you know, not going to take too much away from it, but it's been against Carolina, New Orleans and the Jets. They won one game, that whole unit, right. That was when they went to New Orleans. They blew out the. The Saints team. But you even talked about how that game was much closer than people realize. Right. That was type of game where Saints could get out their own way and eventually Kirk took it away from them. Right. They won 24 to 10. So it's just a Falcon scene that they beat up on bad. They beat and played bad teams here with Kirk. This is a legit juggernaut like the Seahawks. The more numbers I dive into them. Like you said, if San Darno could figure it out, their path to the super bowl is. Is literally there. Like they have the guys, they have the pieces. It's all going to come to Sam Darnold. So for me, this is a get right game for Sam Darnold. He should light up this defense. And I think what you're talking about is true. The only thing we're wary of here is just such a huge number to be back in. Sam Darnold on the road, but talked. If you just don't get too hard about yourself on Sam Darnold, this head coach with Gino Smith has gone on the road and won games and covered games and going back to last year. So it kind of seems like we need to stop thinking so much about what the quarterback is and start really realizing this is a head coach team like a lot of these other teams. We talk about like, you know, this head coach might be one of the best in football. And you know, McDonald here, his record on the road as just a young coach, he's 9 of 4 against the spread. So, you know, this year we've seen it. His two non covers have been, you know, Sally, both games I backed or no, he did cover against the Rams, but he didn't cover against Tennessee. We talked. I feel like a very fluky backdoor cover by the Tennessee team. So I'm gonna hold, hold my line here. Back to Seahawks team on the road. I just. The numbers move too much of minus 7. I gotta take the Seahawks. If you, if you're like Chad and you want to back the Falcons, I hope you could have got the seven and a half, but it's seven. I just, I can't advise you to bet. I think you're betting into a bad number.
Simon Hunter
Well, suffice to say, it won't be in our contest.
All right, we mentioned Mike Tomlin, we mentioned the Steelers. Pittsburgh is visiting the Baltimore Ravens, -5 1/2 point favorites against their division rivals. This is going to be our brass balls bet of the week presented by Hard Rock Bet.
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You know what it takes. It takes brass balls.
Simon Hunter
We've made the very hard decision to back the Baltimore Ravens at minus five and a half. We don't want to pile onto Mike Tomlin, who we love and we think he's an amazing coach. It's the rare time we are not backing the rah rah Mike Tomlin spot. All betting is a risk. We recognize Lamar Jackson is not as healthy as he has been. This offense has not been as consistent as we would like it to be. To me, this is really a bet against Aaron Rodgers, the inability of this offense to move the ball down the field and a bet against even more. They're very quickly aging in front of our eyes. Defense.
And a hope, a hope, a bet that the Ravens offense can take a smidgen of advantage against a defense that as the games go on, continues to get worse and worse in third downs and continues to get worse and worse in explosive plays. And that's when we can see Derrick Henry break open some game, some big gains and put these games away. It's what happened last year in the playoffs. We've seen it happen a couple times with this team when they just completely collapsed and the office can't function. So Ravens minus five and a half.
Chad Millman
Yeah, we love this Ravens team. And this is a line that I'm almost positive will be in our contest because this is such a Unique matchup where, you know, it's. It's not. It's not that calm that the public is totally giving up on Lamar. But it feels like that's what we reached here with this line chat, where.
Simon Hunter
This probably should be really does.
Chad Millman
Just looking at just matchup and most people's models, you're going to have this at seven. So. All right. It's a point and a half off. All right, great. We're getting this Ravens at a point and a half off. But it's also a unique spot where the Ravens have now not covered in three straight weeks. Right. So not only is the public going to be off of them, I think they're going to be on Pittsburgh just because I'm not the only one with those trends. Everyone's going to be giving out those trends all week. Right. That is a known trend thing where if you just blindly back the dogs in this matchup, whether it be the Ravens or Pittsburgh, over the last 20 years, you've come out green. And especially when the numbers above 3. I gave out that stat. Tomlin, when he's underdog in this matchup, above three or even hardball either side. When the numbers above three, the. The. The underdog team is 23. 5 against the spread in that spot. So historically, you've just blindly backed the big dog in the spot, and it's worked out for you. When you go back through all those years, even when the Ravens had down years, it really always was defensive. Like, you look at all the scores of all those games, it was these insane, grueling defensive battles.
Simon Hunter
16, 14, 2017. Like it was games where the Steelers defense made big, big plays and caused huge turnovers that turned the game. That's what you were always banking on.
Chad Millman
The last three times they played in Pittsburgh won the game. So the last two the Ravens have won, they. I think they've blown them out. But I just thought it was interesting. The last three times that Pittsburgh won, they won 18, 16. Does that not sound like a defensive game? They went 17 to 10. Does that not select a defensive game? And they won again, 1710. So we talked to Lamar earlier in his career. He was 0 and 5 against the spread and straight up against his Pittsburgh team. That was when Pittsburgh had this dominant defense. Now these last years, right, these last two years, the cracks have been forming. This year, it's just totally. The dam is broken. The floodgate are totally open. We talked about, like, I went back and looked just to make sure I wasn't speaking out of turn on TJ Watt, all the numbers back it up. He's been atrocious, getting no pressures at all. And you know, if we look at this matchup just on paper, we get Lamar is banged up. That is something we're going to have to deal with here. This should be a Derek Henry bounce back. Everything they've talked about. The coaches in turn said they made a huge mistake now running him more against Cincinnati. Right. They went too much into Lamar, put too much on Lamar's play and he just did not live up to it against City last week, where I think this week they'll lean into it. And you know, once again you talk about this matchup defensively, this Ravens team, I kind of love it where they've had Kyle Hamilton moving all over the field. This really type of game. He's really going to take over against a Rodgers that if you already know you can't throw the ball 20 plus yards down the field, you're just going to stack the box. You're going to try to make them force the ball downfield because that's where you've seen him turn the ball over. So I love this match for this Ravens team and shocked to see the public is coming in on this Pittsburgh team. The tickets, the money, it's all coming in on Pittsburgh. Go get the five and a half. It's a good number.
Simon Hunter
I'm floored. By the way. Aaron Rodgers, 20 yards downfield. How about six yards downfield? Don't forget the stat I gave the other day from Ben Solak in his column in ESPN.com 66% of his passing yards are coming with yards after the catch. Like this is historically bad.
And so it's going to be a haul for him to get the ball downfield. Everyone's seeing it. Everyone's seeing the same thing. All right, Baltimore Ravens brass balls Bet of the week Presented by Hard Rock Bet Cincinnati at Buffalo. Buffalo's a five and a half point favorite. You love the Bills here. The number move five and a half to six, down to six, down from six to five and a half. The public is all over the Bengals in this game. You mentioned in sharp calls the wise guys like the Bengals in this game.
Chad Millman
I have six. I just want people to realize that they took him heavy at the 6.
Simon Hunter
Right at the 6. It's like I can't wrap my head around this game yet. I don't want to invest in the Bills. I don't have any faith in their defense and I don't want to invest in the Bengals. I don't have any faith in their defense. I think it's like, it's a perfect strength against weakness, strength against weakness game. I don't see an edge for anybody. It could go either direction.
Chad Millman
No, it's totally fair and I gave it those stats. Joe Burrow, I mean, you take away the Hamlin game that got basically canceled out, but he's 20 straight up and against the spread against his Bills team, so, you know, clearly early in his career, he's matched up well against his Bills team, played well against him, and, you know, I get why there is love for this Bengals team where Jack gave up the stats, right? The secondary of this Bills team, they're bad against downfield passes. That's exactly the offense Cincinnati wants to run. They want to push the ball downfield. But I just. When I really break this one down, it just feels like this can be a ball control type of game, especially in the elements. Like, we've already talked about the Lake effects that could be happening in Cleveland. Could be the same here in Buffalo, right? Could be a really weird weather game, which that favors this Bill's team, they don't have offensive line that wants to be in, perhaps protect. They have an offensive line once they'll run the ball. We saw that last week with Pittsburgh that, you know, they want to just be the heavy big guys pushing these guys downfield. And we've seen it with Cincinnati. They don't really have a pass rush, let alone a deep tackle that can stop the run. So it's. It feels like the Bills are gonna pick their poison here offensively, how to beat them and, you know, as much grievance we're going to give this Bill's defense how bad they've been, there are some ways they can attack you. Now, I did see Bosa popped up the injury report, not practicing this week, which I know you'd be like, oh, it's not that big of a deal. He's actually been really good for them this year.
Simon Hunter
He's been great this year.
Chad Millman
Yeah. So that's been a great signing by them. You definitely need him back in this type of matchup where you need to keep Burrow off his spot and, you know, people want to glaze over. Burrow is not playing healthy. He is playing hurt. He's talked about it. He's basically got a special insert on his foot that every time he's pushing off that toe, he's feeling it. He says it's. It's pain shooting up his leg, but he says he becomes numb to it when he's playing the game because he's got other things going on in his mind. So, you know, you're, you're put. You're taking a wounded Joe Burrow as a, as a, as a dog on the road in a spot that Chad just said. The public is all over it, so maybe I won't force it into one of our five coming Sunday. But I do really love this Bills team in this number. But I'm just a little hesitant because the stat I gave out Joe burrow is a dog. Three points or greater. 18, three against the spread. He just, he's a covering machine. So I just, I'm trying not to put all in here on this Bills team where I, I kind of like Chad. I'm a little weary of it. Just something I don't trust about this Bills team, but just feels like this is the exact time you want to back this Bills team in this spot because I just tend to roll bad defenses.
Simon Hunter
Let's just see what the weather is on Sunday.
Chad Millman
It's fair.
Simon Hunter
Let's talk about the Chicago Bears visiting the Green Bay packers because this game was at six and a half and I bring it back up because it was moving in the packers direction. The public is backing the packers right now. A slight money edge towards the packers, but an indication that it's pretty split. 50, 50 between the bears and the packers when it comes to the professional betting community.
Like it's another one. I'm being a little bit wishy washy here. I don't even know if I'll bet it. I just want to watch the Bears. I'm not, I'm not kidding, Simon. I'm pretty sure I had a dream about the Bears last night.
Chad Millman
You gotta bet the Bears Moneyline, brother.
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I'll bet the Bears money line.
Chad Millman
Yeah, you got. If you're, if you're a Bears fan, it feels like 100. The ultimate slay. Slay the demon. This is like I talk about, this is the team that's been in your guy's way for so many years. And you know, this is the best Bear season since the Mitch Trubisky double doink. So it's like, I don't know. If I was a Bears fan, I, I would be all in on it. You're getting a good number. But we've talked about. This is just like Cincinnati. This is a huge, shockingly public dog because the money might be a little. Even the tickets, it's all over the Bears. All over the Bears. So that's, that's Very alarming. Where it's like, oh my God, this is a ton of money coming on or just a ton of public coming in on this Bear side. But I, I want to be on Green Bay. But I honestly see why this money is coming on the Spares team. Like it feels like it is warranted because we've seen this packers team, they're. It's not like they're that great against inconsistent.
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Very.
Chad Millman
They're inconsistent as well, but like as big favorites too this year. You know, it's not like they're a recovery machine. We've seen them struggle as a big favorite this year. I believe they started the year 0 and 6 as a 6 and a 6 and a half or 7 point favorite to start the season. So, you know, there is some things to take away from this where, you know, this Bears team, they basically been on this divisional run here. So as bad as they looked, right, like they've had some let down games, they did dominate that Minnesota team, which, okay, we won't take much away from that JJ McCarthy that, you know, I don't know if they dominated Detroit, but they did play like we talked about playing with big balls. LaFleur going for on those fourth downs, that was insane. That was like next level. Like he was just playing simply to win. He did not care about trying to play for field goals in that game. So I think it's gonna be the same here, Chad, that you're gonna see LaFleur and kill mode against you guys. And he's had the Bears number, so I love this game so much. Like Chad said, he's gonna probably take the Bears Moneyline or either set this one out on the other side where it's like I'm gonna be Oliver Green Bay, but just not very confident. I thought I'd be more confident come Thursday, be like, oh yeah, all the pros are with me on this Packer side. This is the right side. I see. I see what people are seeing with the spares and I see what the public is seeing where as good as this Green base team is divisional game, you have to throw a lot of that out. And you know, LaFleur, as great as he's been down the stretch here, I don't know, like, this is the type of matchup that I could see Ben Johnson really challenging him, which he's not have. You know, he's not been challenged by Bears coaches in the past, right. We look back on this, the Bears coacher is in. They did. They've not had a guy like we can, we can say like Ben Johnson here. So I love it. This is the exact type of scenario where it's like, is this the turning of a page or is this the same old Bears Chad? So I, I love it for all the hoopla off the field stuff we'll be able to talk about after the fact.
Simon Hunter
But look, the schedule.
Chad Millman
Do a Chad. I'm on Green Bay. But I get why you're taking a position on the Bears money line.
Simon Hunter
The schedule is littered with these kind of turn the page moments. And, and where are the Lions? The Lions of old or the Lions of new? Are the Chiefs? The Chiefs of old or the Chiefs of new? Are the Bears? The Bears of old or the Bears of new? We're constantly having to ask these questions. That's what makes betting so interesting, is like you have to take a stand. You have to put your money on the line with an opinion about where you think something is going to go, not where it's been. That's what makes it so fascinating. All I know is I woke up to pee in the middle of the night and I'm fairly certain when I woke up I was dreaming about the Bears. And I think it was the Bears screen game. I swear to God, that's what I was dreaming about.
Chad Millman
The Bears fans who bet they're over under, they've already hit their win total for the season. Eight and a half.
Simon Hunter
One game that we have made a choice on together. We are on the same side. The Los Angeles Rams -7 and a half versus the Arizona Cardinals. We know we're going against the wise guys here. We're basically back in. We're going against the big home dog that has lost seven games by four points or less because they've also lost multiple games in the division by three touchdowns. And the Rams are coming off their worst game of the year where they were on the road as ten and a half point favorites and lost outright. I'm okay back in. The Rams here. I'm okay back in. Sean McVeigh here. I like this defense to get pressure against Jacoby Brissette. I'm perfectly fine with our position. Are you still perfectly fine with our position?
Chad Millman
I am. It feels like a nice spot to back this Rams team after an embarrassing loss on the road where everything felt like it was going against them and this Arizona team, you know, we, we, we kind of fell in love with Jacoby Brissette and it's our own fault because of that Dallas game where they were just so impressed that they played so well. But We've seen it since then. When they do play, they're juggernaut of the division. They get actually absolutely smoked. And you know, Seattle believe they beat him 44, 22. Then they played the 49ers who beat him, I believe 41, 22. And I gave you that crazy stat. It was the first time a team had given up 40 points in back to back weeks to divisional foes in like 30 years. So we know historically this is a horrible, horrible Cardinals defense. And every game they've come back in it's been because either the team lets them in, they don't really shut them out, or, you know, Jacoby Brissette just has these incredible moments. And like that Bucs game, the Bucks should have been up double digits, right? That guy went touchdown.
Simon Hunter
That guy went touchdown.
Chad Millman
Yeah, let them linger. And we've talked about Brissette. If you let him linger, he's going to come back in that back door and get that cover. So that would be the only fear for me here. But this feels like the absolute type of game where, you know, we see the Rams after a bad loss with McVay put up 40, 42 points like these other divisional teams did against this really bad Cardinals defense. And I gave you those stats. He's absolutely owned Arizona McVeigh as a head coach. He just has their number and matchup scheme wise, he does really well against them. So not gonna let the big number scare us off. Chad. Minus seven and a half. I'm gonna take down this Rams team.
Simon Hunter
All right, so we're building a roster here for Sunday. Last game I want to talk about is Houston at Kansas City. Kansas city still at minus three. Minus 120 at Hard Rock. Bet mostly three and a halfs elsewhere. As I just said, if the Chiefs gone the way of the Lions, is it time to get off them this year? Is there still magic in the number three? Can they break the trend of losing all these close games? Will there be regression back to the mean in a positive way for the Kansas City Chiefs? This game has massive, massive playoff implications for both team. It is the tipping point fulcrum moment for these teams in the season. The Texans defense is awesome, but I am always going to be loathe to bet against Patrick Mahomes at home as a short favorite in a must have scenario that is one that I that that is a bridge too far. I can't walk away. I can't be the one who's betting against someone who might go down as the greatest quarterback ever and is still in his prime.
Chad Millman
Yeah. If you want to join the public and the professionals there on the Texas like Chad talked about, it's. It's really about the number. Right. This chief team isn't good enough to be favored minus three and a half. Which is what I think a lot of pros in the public are taking that position on which I totally get. We're talking minus three here at Hard Rock which hopefully in our contest, God bless Hard Rock, they'll give us two and a half.
Hard Rock Bet Announcer
Yeah.
Chad Millman
Because that will be an automatic play in my opinion on this chief team because that to me will be too much reaction. And this is me Simon guy who's been fading this Chiefs team non stop since that Bills game. I think you know took a position against them with Denver. They're a minus four favorite. They lost outright. Took a position against them against the Colts I think they were minus four and a half. They closed favorite. They won by three. Took a position against them with the Dallas Cowboys. Minus half, plus three and a half on Dallas. They lost outright to Dallas. So we've seen these last three games. It all comes down to last position. Like Chad said, it's eventually gotta go the other way. Right. This Chiefs mathematically they can't keep losing these one score games. Right. And we've seen my homes tend to excel that this year. It just not has been that way.
Matt Mitchell
Right.
Chad Millman
When they get in these close games it's either he's not had the ball in his hands and other teams just eating the clock up or he goes in there and it's just not been Mahomes like right. He's made the mistakes and not brought his team back from depth. So I love how desperate this chief's going to team is going to be. But on the flip side I. I get people's position. Texans are just as desperate. They know they're playing for the division their own playoff lives. So I get why people are taking their position on this Texans team. But I've wanted to be on the Chiefs team all week. I wanted to be patient and let the number get to a position where I feel comfortable betting it it's at that spot. I'm going to take the minus three and pray the pros keep coming on Texas and I get a two and a half but got no issue taking the minus three. I just feel like this is a finally a Chiefs line. This is the exact spot you want to back Mahomes of this Chiefs team.
Simon Hunter
So glad to hear you say that. I so believe in the Chiefs in this spot. I, I could be blinded by it.
Chad Millman
We are, we're definitely we're. This is a past performance bet. I, I'm happy to admit that where it's like I just. You, you. I'm. I'm willing to see Mahomes die here, but this is the exact type of game we talk Mahomes, they're going to have to stab him the hard 30 times and cut his head off before he's dead. He's just not going to go quietly into the night. This man is going to fight to the last second and now you're giving me a minus three on that at home. I got to take, I have to take that number.
Simon Hunter
We can talk about the Eagles at the Chargers for a second. Just because you mentioned it in sharp calls. I don't think it's a game we're going to put in the contest. We're not going to. I can't imagine we're getting a two and a half.
But if you have strong opinion. I, I'm agnostic with the pros then.
Chad Millman
Like the pros, they're all, they're all on this Chargers team and they're just. Even the public's with the Chargers and it's just, everyone's just saying boat. I think it's just so negative, so bad for this Eagles team where if I told you you can get this Eagles team who's pretty healthy, minus two and a half against a one handed Herbert that's out his left and right tackle, you'd be running to the window with me. So that's my. I, I can't believe it. Like when I was talking to pros, I'm like what am I missing? Like you guys love this Chargers team. I can't believe it. Like I cannot believe this is not the exact time you hammer this Eagle side in this number. Just the hate has gone too far. I just cannot get over it. It's like all right, Herbert against bad teams, we don't mind back them him against the Raiders. Yeah, that's exactly when you back Herbert him against a great playoff defense and team, you fade them. You do not back Herbert here in this spot. So I might be blind to it, have my biases here, but I got this number model -3 and a half for this Eagles team. So you know you're getting a full point of value and the fact that public and the professionals are all coming to the Chargers. It feels like this is a nice spot to be with the sports book here. Back in this Eagles team at minus two and so I, I, maybe I'm missing something here but I, I can't believe it. It's to me the hate's gone too far. Like Herbert, you're, you're a tough son of a here, but you're not going against, you know, a bad defensive line. This is a defensive line that can get after a quarterback and put major pressure on them. So this just feels like a nice match with the Seagulls team. And yeah, this is a very unique spot for me where I, I thought I would be all in on the Seagulls team but I'm very hesitantly betting it because I'm just worried there's something I'm missing here with the Seagulls team. It just feels way too Easy getting Eagles -2 and a half against. Like I said, a one handed Herbert without his left and right tackle. Like it's just what am I missing here? I'm missing something clearly.
Simon Hunter
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Chad Millman
Cut the camera. They see us.
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Chad Millman
Liberty Liberty Liberty Savings Very underwritten by Liberty Mutual Insurance Company affiliates.
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Chad Millman
Bam.
Simon Hunter
All right, Simon, let's talk about the biggest bets.
Chad Millman
Pull up those pants and be a man. Yeah. Shockingly, a week. I'm a little, Not a little gun shy, but I kind of am. Honestly, I, I, I usually would have a lot more bet this week in this position, but again, we didn't really talk about much. I've taken a pretty large position on the Saints. Like that match or maybe we'll talk a little bit more Sunday. For, for dogs, that's probably my. One of my bigger spots right now is them in Washington. The. And, and the Jaguars. And for favorites, you know, I can't quit it. Cleveland, Baltimore, I just, I, I really love both those favorites. And the Chiefs at minus three. I really love that one. So nothing huge yet. Maybe come Sunday I'll have some really big bets, but right now, I'm not just dipping my toes and my whole foot's in the water. I, I put some good money into it, but I'm not, I haven't dived in yet. I'm just a little hesitant. I want to see what the weather report is, what the injury report is. Come today.
Simon Hunter
All right. Underdog Moneyline Parlay.
Hard Rock Bet Announcer
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Chad Millman
Your dog likes my dog.
Simon Hunter
Who do we want to do this week? I would say Jaguars. Yeah. Jets.
Chad Millman
Jets. And then let's do. For the third one, let's do Washington.
Simon Hunter
All right. And then I think for the favorites, we want to do the Rams. I made a list the other day. We want to do.
Chad Millman
We'll take, take the Rams down to five and a half, though.
Simon Hunter
Okay.
Chad Millman
Don't do the money line. Do the five and a half.
Simon Hunter
Seattle.
Chad Millman
Seattle. I do the same thing. Take it a five and a half. I wouldn't do money line. And for money lines, I would do Chiefs. I think we both agree on that one, right?
Simon Hunter
Yep.
Baltimore.
Chad Millman
I would say. How do we not get Ravens in there? We love that one.
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
Chad Millman
Buffalo for the last one. Yeah, I'll do Buffalo. Let's see. Yeah, that feels, I mean, I, I'm with you. I don't want to do Green Bay.
Simon Hunter
Let's do Buffalo, Kansas City. Buffalo or Denver.
Chad Millman
If you don't love Buffalo, because that is risky. Right. We take. We're going against a good quarterback. All right, I gave you the stats. Denver bone. Knicks as a favorite, 150 straight up. So if you want to get Bo Nicks in there, you can easily get that down to two and a half. One and a half. You don't have to take the money line.
Simon Hunter
Kansas City, Denver, Baltimore, Seattle and the Rams take them down to minus five and a half. That is our favorites Moneyline parlay. Simon, it's time for Sharp versus Square.
We missed it last week with the condensed show schedule. Give me your. Should we do? I don't want to do Atlanta versus Seattle. I don't know who's going to be playing in that game yet.
Chad Millman
Go ahead. I mean, if for my square side, I was thinking the Chiefs minus three. But I'll stick to my MO on this in this part where I always go sharp. So give me. Give me the Saints plus eight and a half.
Simon Hunter
Interesting. Very interesting. Okay. I would say.
Oh, boy.
Chad's choice was the Jets. Brass balls, I think was the Ravens. Simon says was the commanders. We haven't done rock in a hard place yet.
All right, give me the jacks.
Chad Millman
Wow, he's full circle.
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
Chad Millman
Oh, my God.
Simon Hunter
I know. Well, honestly, it came down to them and the Browns and I feel like the Browns on Sunday are.
Chad Millman
Got that scenario.
Simon Hunter
Yeah. As Rock and Harp place. That's what I'm thinking.
Chad Millman
Oh, okay.
Simon Hunter
I think. I think it's going to be. I think it's just going to be a hard conversation on Sunday about the Browns. All right. This has been Sharper Square. We're part of the Volume podcast network. We will be back on Sunday on Sharper Square YouTube. We're going to eavesdrop on an intimate conversation that Simon and I have. We'll panic. We'll make utterly human decisions. Regret the rest of the day. We'll be back On Sharper Square YouTube Sunday night, 7:30 ish. Watch or listen at YouTube Sharper Square. Like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Also download us from Apple Pods, Spotify, wherever you get your pods rate, review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you. Okay.
Chad Millman
This isn't college. You're not at a home. College. I understand. This is the NFL. Which stands for not for long when.
Simon Hunter
You make them calls. I'll be selling groceries.
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Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Episode Date: December 4, 2025
Main Theme:
Chad and Simon break down the key NFL Week 14 matchups, analyzing betting positions from both "sharps" (professional gamblers) and "squares" (public bettors). They assess line value, team situations, and the impact of weather and injuries, all while debating which sides are genuinely sharp this week and laying out their favorite bets and contest picks.
Chad and Simon dive in-depth into the numbers, narratives, and market moves surrounding major NFL Week 14 games. They debate sharp vs. square sides, analyze professional betting group trends, and identify their favorite positions for both spreads and moneyline parlays. Along the way, they discuss the current state of teams (Steelers’ locker room drama, the aging Packers, Mahomes as a short favorite, and more) and offer actionable advice for bettors.
(09:11–11:33)
(11:36–18:36)
On Mike Tomlin and Steelers Turmoil:
On Betting Bias:
On Weather & Injury Influence:
On Betting “the right side”:
On Chiefs Must-Win:
Betting Philosophy through the Week:
Chad and Simon repeatedly advise patience with line moves, waiting on injury/weather reports, and not letting early-week consensus blind you to late-breaking market signals. They're candid about their own biases and changing opinions, modeling rigorous but flexible decision-making for serious NFL bettors.
Listener Engagement:
A major theme is community-building—listeners are encouraged to join contests, challenge Chad & Simon, and interact via socials for support and debate.
This episode is a must-listen for bettors looking for a nuanced and practical breakdown of week 14’s trickiest NFL markets, loaded with sharp-vs-square insight, actionable betting advice, and a lot of camaraderie and fun banter.
For more, catch them on YouTube (SharperSquare), Apple Podcasts, or Spotify. Picks, banter, and sharp betting action continue every week through Super Bowl Sunday.