SHARP NFL WEEK 15 BETS: Bills-Patriots, Lions-Rams, Packers-Broncos, Chargers-Chiefs and more

Summary

Sharp or Square – NFL Week 15: Betting Breakdown & Sharp Picks

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Episode: SHARP NFL WEEK 15 BETS
Date: December 11, 2025

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Overview

In this lively Week 15 edition, betting expert Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter dissect the key NFL games from a betting perspective, distinguishing between “sharp” (wiseguy) and “square” (public) sides. The duo delivers insights on where the smart money is heading, which picks the pros are on, and the “Brass Balls” contrarian bet of the week. Expect a podcast peppered with betting stats, sharp call breakdowns, and candid banter, all aimed at giving listeners a betting edge.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. State of Mind, Listener Corrections, and Movie References

• Opening Mood: Simon notes he’s feeling better after prior weeks’ tough losses. Chad reassures listeners that showing emotion is part of being a fan.
• Fun Correction: Chad walks back a movie quote misattribution from the previous episode, blending pod chemistry and pop culture.
  “Shame on me… shame on Matt [Mitchell] for not correcting it. Shame on the listeners for signing up for this dreck.” (Chad, 06:15)

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2. Sharp Calls Recap

(07:17 - 10:47)

Simon brings insights from professional betting circles:

• Atlanta Falcons – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Thursday):

  • Sharps leaning Atlanta, but Simon’s staying off the spread due to the unpredictability of both squads.
  • “Baker doesn’t blow teams out. They tend to play really close games.” (Simon, 07:25)

• Buffalo Bills – New England Patriots:

  • Heavy professional money initially on Patriots, but “line in the sand” moved back toward Bills.

• Pros Agree On: Rams, Packers, Chiefs.

• Saints – Panthers:

  • Less pro love for Saints than expected, despite an emotional Saints win last week.

• Bengals:

  • “Tons and tons of love for this Bengals side” among sharps.

• Big Dogs:

  • Pros like big underdogs such as Raiders, Seahawks, and Colts this week.
  • Simon’s cautious and not loving all of them.

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3. Contest Housekeeping & Listener Engagement

(10:47 - 13:57)

• Sharper Square Contest: Only one entry per person.
• Winning Threshold: Listeners debate how many wins out of 45 picks will take the grand prize. Chad jokes about last year’s winner:
  “It wasn’t won by a professional gambler, okay? …It was won by a rancher from Bow Bells, North Dakota.” (Chad, 12:37)

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Featured Game Breakdowns & Betting Angles

Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5 to -5.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers

(13:57 – 17:50)

• Injuries & Spot:
  • Normally, a go-to play on Herbert as an underdog, but due to significant O-line injuries and Herbert’s hand, Simon is siding with the Chiefs.
  • “This is unique. This is a man that only has one hand…” (Simon, 13:57)
• Trends:
  • Herbert: 11-2-1 ATS as a dog >3.5 but 0-4 ATS vs. Andy Reid.
• Chad’s Conviction:
  • “I don’t feel gross [about betting KC]… this team… has hit rock bottom.” (Chad, 16:14)

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Buffalo Bills (-1) at New England Patriots

(17:50 – 22:57)

• Josh Allen Factor:
  • Chad and Simon betting on Allen’s ability to bounce back after losses and as a short favorite.
  • “Every scenario you can think of… favors Josh Allen.” (Chad, 18:26)
• Trend Stat:
  • Patriots’ coach Vrabel: “6-1 straight up and against the spread off a bye week” (Simon, 20:16)
• Conclusion:
  • Blind faith in Allen despite the numbers loving the Patriots; it's a must-win, playoff-style spot.

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Arizona Cardinals (+9.5 to +10) vs. Houston Texans

(28:14 – 31:29)

• A “Buy-Low, Sell-High” Spot:
  • Wiseguys resisting the public money on Houston.
  • Simon prefers Arizona, especially if line moves to +10.
  • Texans very rarely favored by this much.
  • “The reason you haven’t seen the Texans this big a favorite… they tend to not be deserving of it or perform.” (Simon, 29:22)

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Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens

(31:29 – 34:57)

• Joe Burrow ATS as an Underdog:
  • Approaching “must-bet” territory as line nears +3.
  • Caution: Waiting for a better number before making contest picks.

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Cleveland Browns (+7.5) at Chicago Bears

(34:57 – 37:47)

• Weather Impact:
  • Could be an ugly, cold “slugfest.”
  • Both show hesitancy to commit, but lean Browns due to historical trends as big dogs.
• Caveats:
  • “I'm just, I don't either… I'm just worried they've quit on their coach…” (Simon, 36:04)

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Los Angeles Rams (-6) vs. Detroit Lions

(39:13 – 41:59)

• Sharp Favorite:
  • Simon reveals Rams are “one of his biggest bets.”
  • McVay is a December covering machine: 16-3 ATS since 2021.
  • Potential matchup advantage exploiting Detroit’s weak pass D.
  • “There's something different about this team.” (Simon, 39:13)

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New Orleans Saints (+2.5) vs. Carolina Panthers

(43:53 – 47:40)

• Stat Battle:
  • Saints at home as underdogs: 5-16 ATS since 2020 (!)
  • Bryce Young never won or covered as a road favorite (0-11).
  • Both sides of the matchup present historically bad trends.
• Unique Opportunity:
  • Betting the Saints is gross, but they’ve historically matched well against Carolina.

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Green Bay Packers (-2) at Denver Broncos

(47:45 – 51:17)

• Strong Consensus:
  • Both love the Packers at -2/-2.5.
  • AFC/NFC comparison: Packers seen as simply the better team.
  • “Matchup wise, they're the better team. They should probably be minus 3…” (Simon, 49:10)

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Brass Balls Pick of the Week

(51:28 – 52:47)

Minnesota Vikings (+6) at Dallas Cowboys

• Selected as the contrarian, “hold your nose” dog play.

• “Should we make it our brass balls?” Chad: “Let’s do it.” Simon: “Definitely a ballsy bet.” (51:40)

  • Vikings’ defense is surging; Cowboys overvalued by public.
  • Chad: “I'm buying the Minnesota Vikings.” (52:47)

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Lightning Round: Other Notable Bets & Stats

(53:53 – 59:01)

• Titans-49ers:
  • Sharps moving to Tennessee after learning Shanahan is 4-8 ATS off bye weeks. (Simon, 54:47)
• Steelers-Dolphins MNF:
  • “Since 1992, on Monday Night Football games, the Steelers are 22 and 1 straight up.” (Simon, 55:40)
• Commanders-Giants:
  • System play: Teams that got shut out are 34-17-3 ATS since 2015.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Chad on Brass Balls Pick:
  “The Minnesota Vikings plus six at Hard Rock bet against the Dallas Cowboys. That is our brass balls bet of the week.” (Chad, 51:40)

• Simon, Wisdom on Trends:
  “That’s how history happens. It’s the ones you don’t see coming that hurt the most.” (Simon, 71:29)

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Quick-Hit Sharp vs Square Picks (70:47 – 71:38)

• Simon’s Pick: Rams -6
• Chad’s Picks: Packers (Chad’s choice), Saints (Simon says), Bills (Sharps Square), Vikings (Brass Balls)

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Parlay Construction (68:55 – 70:43)

• Underdog Parlay: New Orleans, Cincinnati, Washington, Minnesota, Cleveland, Raiders.
• Favorite Parlay: Rams, Packers, Chiefs, Bills, Steelers.

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Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |--------------------------------------------|-----------| | Simon’s mood and movie corrections | 03:13 | | Sharp Calls (pro insights rundown) | 07:17 | | Chiefs vs Chargers breakdown | 13:57 | | Bills vs Patriots analysis | 17:50 | | Cardinals vs Texans discussion | 28:14 | | Bengals vs Ravens, Burrow dog stats | 31:29 | | Browns vs Bears (weather, defense talk) | 34:57 | | Rams vs Lions breakdown | 39:13 | | Saints vs Panthers trends | 43:53 | | Packers vs Broncos confidence | 47:45 | | Brass Balls Pick: Vikings vs Cowboys | 51:28 | | End of show parlay/Sharp vs Square | 68:55+ |

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Final Thoughts

A loaded, stats-rich episode: Chad and Simon break down sharp-vs-square positions, revealing where big bettors are putting their cash in Week 15. The “Brass Balls” pick—the Vikings as big underdogs—epitomizes the pod’s contrarian, data-driven ethos. Both hosts blend deep trend analysis with candid, everyman sportsbook wisdom, making the show a must-listen for NFL bettors seeking a real edge.

“We're riding a knife's edge all season with some of these teams, right? Like trying to get off the wagon with the Chiefs, the Bills, the Ravens.”
— Chad Millman (71:38)

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Transcript

[Simon Hunter]

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[Chad Millman]

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[Chad Millman]

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[Chad Millman]

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What a matchup we got, y'.

[Chad Millman]

All.

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[Simon Hunter]

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[Chad Millman]

Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock bet. We are part of the Voluum Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman and I am joined, as always by my bff, my companion, my compadre, my co host, professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.

[Simon Hunter]

Chad. Feeling much better today. Not as angry, not on edge. I was very, very on edge on Tuesday. Today I feel relaxed. I feel, feel much better. All these bad losses shall pass. And thank God that one finally passed.

[Chad Millman]

We did have some concern from commenters and tweeters and texters about your state of mind on Tuesday. So I'm glad to hear that's unprompted. Unprompted.

[Simon Hunter]

I was trying not to show it. I was mad and miserable. I did my best. I hopefully didn't come across as just a very bitter old man.

[Chad Millman]

No, it came across across as a fan, which at the end of the day, that's what we are. We do have one, Simon. We, we have one major, major correction to make on the show. Because last Tuesday I said to you that one of my favorite lines from one of my favorite movies, Planes, Trains and Automobiles, is when Steve Martin's character and John Candy's character are in the back of a truck riding through Kansas in the winter to get home for Thanksgiving. And Steve Martin says to John Candy, how cold do you think it is? And John Candy deadpans and just says one. And you responded with, surely you can't be serious.

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[Simon Hunter]

Surely you can't be serious. I am serious. And don't call me Shirley.

[Chad Millman]

Now look, I don't know what I was thinking in the moment. In the moment I knew that that line was from Airplane because like anyone my age, I watched that movie in my VCR. In my, in the VCR, in my parents room, on VHS 8,000 times. And like anyone else my age, they probably paused it in one very particular scene when everyone believes the plane is going down. There is one moment that I know everyone paused every single time. Shame on me. Because in the moment I thought, well, maybe they parodied that line in Planes, Trains and Automobiles. I can't remember, but I thought I knew it was from Airplane and I didn't correct you. So shame on me. It's shameful. But here's the worst part. Matt Mitchell, whose Spotify wrapped age is probably 85 years older than mine, lives in Milwaukee, no joke, lives next door to the Zucker brothers who wrote Airplane, directed the Naked Gun with Leslie Nielsen. He can literally see the house they grew up in because it is next door to where he lives. Even he didn't catch it. For that, we owe everybody an apology.

[Simon Hunter]

Both are great movies.

[Chad Millman]

Both are great movies. I mean look as they say an airplane. Shane I they bought their ticket. They knew what they were getting into. I say let em crash. Everybody who listens to this podcast knew what they were getting into. Shame on me. Shame on Matt for not correcting it. Shame on the listeners for signing up for this dreck. Anyways, this is our Thursday week 15 episode. Simon we're gonna get down closer on our quest for the final five picks. Reminder. Subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube Apple Pods Spotify. Let's get into this thing. Every week we're going to give our picks. Every week we're going to get calls from our friends in the wise guy community. They are going to agree. They are going to disagree. They are never going to be shy about sharing their opinions. Simon it is time for sharp calls.

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[Chad Millman]

What do we got brother?

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, let's start with the Thursday a couple pros I really respect all over Atlanta. I I can't join them. I get where they're coming from. You know, just Baker doesn't blow teams out. They tend to play really close games and even when they're a much better team, it seems like they let these bad teams back into it. So I I'm gonna end up just probably taking a high position on the money line and throw it in with some other type of bet. You know, put them with the Rams or whoever, the Eagles. But I guess the spread. I'll stay away from the Bucks. I just, I I have too much respect for these guys and I get what they're saying right? It's a unique spot for Atlanta. I think they've lost like five straight. They're just totally undervalued. And just like everyone else, I still kind of overvalue this Bucs team who is also feel like they haven't covered in a month.

[Chad Millman]

So look, they are getting Mike Evans back and I do think, I do think there's a difference between undervalued and we'll get to that. I apologize for interrupting sharp calls.

[Simon Hunter]

We.

[Chad Millman]

We'll get to that. Undervalued between teams that are undervalued because of bad spots and teams that are undervalued or properly valued because they're just not very good anymore.

[Simon Hunter]

Another game I was on the other side of tons of love for New England, which I I expected that. I knew there's gonna be a lot of professional love and that's another game. We're gonna dive into a ton of underlying numbers and trends that do favorite this Patriots team in many ways. And the Bills touched plus one and a half at a couple books yesterday and then got hammered, hammered, hammered back to minus one and a half. So it's pretty drawn. The line is in the sand here where it's. I think it's going to hold it what it is. Now the professionals obviously have taken a stand that tons of pros out there waiting for the Bills to go to a dog like I have been talking about and they hit that number and it feels like it's going to stay where it is. So yeah, tons of love by the pros for this Patriots team for the games. They agree with us. Chad. Love the love the Rams, I mean we've talked. We're going to talk about that one. Green Bay, you know, tons of love for them. The Chiefs, tons of love for them. And shockingly, and what I thought would be a. A bigger spot by the professionals, it's not as much love on that Saints team, which I really like that number. I think it is just a unique spot. You have the Rams. I mean, not the Rams, the Saints coming off such an emotional road win.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

Maybe people don't trust that with this young quarterback. But we talked about. I just.

[Chad Millman]

There's.

[Simon Hunter]

So I'm gonna give out all the numbers about Carolina and them being favorites, but it's. It feels like a very unique spot. It's a tough game to handicap for sure. So the last one around it out tons and tons of love for this Bengals side and unfortunately we're never gonna get the three. I thought we would get back to the three. Touched one and a half. Then Joe Burrow had this very somber interview. I know it sounds stupid, but literally you can watch in real time the number go back to two and a half. After his interview, which I thought was very funny, people are taking a position simply off a really somber interview. So those ones jumped out. You know, the. The Chicago Cleveland game is very split between professionals and you know, the dogs this week. There's some really big ones like the Raiders, the Seahawks game with the Colts. Like I know pros were taking positions on those big dogs. The only one I really think they're really confident is that Raiders number. They just. They're taking it just because we'll talk about that game if we need to. But basically this Eagles defense have played like 70 snaps per game three straight weeks now. They're coming off a short week overtime game. Coming home statistically is not a good spot. But yeah, really interesting week because all these big spreads and maybe I'm Missing it. Right? I'm not really loving these big dogs, but tons of pros I've talked to, they really like a lot of these big dog numbers.

[Chad Millman]

It's interesting. I'm, I'm with you on the big dogs. It hasn't been any of my focus this week other than that Raiders game. I wanted to find a way to get the jets not going to get there. Wanted to find a way to get the Colts not going to get there. We will get to one of the bigger numbers, not the biggest of the numbers. But before we get to our first game, three quick things about the free Sharper Square Pro Football Pick Them contest, which is officially live@sharp square.the volume.com Number one is a reminder. It's only one entry per person. If you submit multiple entries, try to manipulate the system, you will be ineligible for the grand prize. Number two, if you're in this contest and don't think you can win, that is crazy because last year our contest had a lot more people. It wasn't won by a professional gambler, okay? It wasn't won by some hotshot handicapper. It was won by a rancher from Bow Bells, North Dakota who came on the show. Lovely dude. Said he was going to use all of his prize money to buy more cattle. Good for him. The price of cattle has 3x'd since we did that show. I hope the guy is just swimming in cow value right now in Bow Bells, North Dakota. Three is a question from producer Matt Our contest is nine weeks long, five picks per week. This is 45 available wins in total. Out of 45, how many wins do you, our listeners, think it will take to win the grand prize? Matt's prediction, he's expecting someone to go on a bit of a heater, is that the top finisher will end with a record of 35 and 10 78%. So all right, let's get into it. You talked about Kansas City, Los Angeles Chargers visiting. We first started talking about this one, I think on Sunday it was a three and a half. By Tuesday it was at four. It's now at five. A lot of other books are five and a half. By the middle of yesterday, I completely came around to your position. I just decided a everything you were saying was right. There is going to be extreme weather. The Chargers have so many offensive line issues. So much bad luck is befalling the Chiefs, whether it's bobbled passes, bad calls, all the stuff that went their way for 17 straight close games. So I'm with you, brother. I'M on the Chiefs. I bet him. I bet him. The line I got was four and a half. I did not get the three and a half or the four. I got the four and a half because I waited too long. But I still went in on it. I'm with you. I'm with you and I love it. Let's put it in contest.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. In normal circumstances we would be all over the charges. This is an automatic Chargers play. This is a Chargers line. And you know, Justin Herbert as a dog, very profitable, I believe. You know, I'll look through the numbers here, but we, we kind of blindly bet him in this exact spot. Right? But this is what we talked about. This is unique. This is a man that only has one hand without, you know, his, his offensive line. Even the backups got hurt in the Eagles game. Like they lost. I think their third string right tackle in the Eagles just a nightmare. But again, I want to give up these numbers just because in the future when I tell people we just. You blindly bet Herbert in the spot. It's because he tends to be really great as a dog in the spot. So when the line's above three and a half in his career, 11, two and one against the spread Herbert, which is really impressive, you know, you, you think back to what's the matchup with Andy Reed and. Horrible, horrible. He's 40 against the spread when he plays against Andy Reid in his career. So they do have their number, this Chiefs team. But we're, we're talking about a unique spot here in this, in the fact that what we just talked about, right, it's all the injuries to Herbert and this team and even going back and re watching the Eagles game. Herbert, you know, tried to do so much with his legs, but even when he couldn't, he was trying to pass the ball downfield. His guys just could not get any separation. And that was really stood out to me is they're just wide receivers are not getting open for him. And you know, Keenan Allen does the best he can. He can get open in a really quick window, but he's not really someone that's going to burn some of his legs. Obviously he's someone that's much older now and lad McConkey has been kind of disappointing this season for them. So it's, it feels like a really bad spot for this Chargers team. And you talked a little about this Chiefs team. It's got a flip at some point, right? They, they basically won 17 consecutive one score games. And now this year they're 1 and 6, 0 and 7 against the spread. So it's, it's not the best, Chad. We're bending to a little, a little bit of a scary spot. But I do have to trust the fact that we have a good number. It's still under six. People listening. This can still get under six. Where I think it's a good number. And I just have major questions about this Chargers offense. With the injury to Herbert, I just. The man is one handed and he's gonna be outdoors in the elements. It's just. I feel like it's too much to overcome, Chad. So, yeah, I, I feel gross doing it, but feels like this is the exact spot we have to take the Chiefs.

[Chad Millman]

I don't feel that gross. It's weird.

[Simon Hunter]

Even after all those numbers. I mean, Herbert's a covering God as a dog, man.

[Chad Millman]

I, I don't feel that gross because this team, this offensive line is in such bad shape and we've seen what the Chiefs can do when they're able to get pressure and how dominant Chris Jones can be. And I feel like they've hit rock bottom. It is a team of champions that has hit rock bottom. The look on Travis Kelce's face. We talk about Somber Joe Burrow in his press conference. Somber Travis Kelce, I find him to be eminently likable. I think he's handled his career brilliantly. He seems to be very well liked by his teammates and he just looked so sad and a prideful athlete trying to figure out what the is going on and why am I not making any of the plays I used to be able to make. And I think that they're going to figure something out in this game that allows them to execute in a way where they're not going to be making the same mistakes, especially in conditions that will favor them. So yeah, the performance by that Chargers offensive line was so bad, they're going to need to pull out all the stops to protect Justin Herbert in this game. Yeah, I'm with you. I'm with you. You and I, compadres. You know, where else were compadres? Buffalo Bills, one point favorites over the New England Patriots. At the end of the day, it's a bet on Josh Allen.

[Simon Hunter]

Alert here for Josh Allen. Looking for Alex. Got it. He's a runner. No, he's a thrower. He is a football player through and through with his legs. And there he goes.

[Chad Millman]

Josh Allen, huge run and excuse me, touchdown.

[Simon Hunter]

How many quarterbacks have you ever seen hurdle anyone?

[Coca-Cola Announcer]

Goodness, there's no fear.

[Simon Hunter]

No way. Looking a laser Beam Touchdown Buffalo.

[Coca-Cola Announcer]

He's still going. Oh, my goodness.

[Simon Hunter]

The demands to do something about this outrageous man became louder and louder.

[Chad Millman]

Every scenario you can think of. You talk about trends. Josh Allen off a loss. Josh Allen is a favorite of less than 3. All of it favors Josh Allen. Look back to their game on October 5, which is when the Patriots were really starting to roll. It's when people started to recognize, oh, maybe this team isn't terrible. It's what got them into the position they're in. There were so many mistakes by the Bills in that game. They easily could have won that game. That was a field goal game. And you're still getting a Patriots team now that is at the peak of its value, that has everyone behind them, that is still missing key components on the offensive line, whose rush defense is getting a little bit worse still statistically as the season goes on. I can see why this game is split between the wise guys, but my opinion stands. Buffalo Bills.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, I think we're both. So the mentality, it's really us having blind faith and trust in Josh Allen in this exact spot against the young and upcoming team. And this is how things do happen though in football, right? The the team does eventually break through. The person who dominated the division tends to relinquish that powers. And this is a unique spot for this, this Patriots team. And just when I dove into the trends too, I couldn't believe how much they favor Rabel. I knew Variable was good after a bye week. What do you think his record is after a bye week, Chad? I didn't know it was this good.

[Chad Millman]

17 or no.

[Simon Hunter]

I wish Brave would have been around that long. He is six and one straight up. And against the spread off of bye week, which that's really impressive for a guy that spent his first seven of those years in Tennessee. So that's, that's probably the most unique stat to me of him is just the fact that he gets his guys up for these type of matchups. And so when, you know, I dove into even more basically this exact spot for teams which again, it's a unique spot. It's, you know, a 10. They have 10. They've won 10 straight games. The Patriots, they are now a home dog at home. It's only happened like two times the last like 20 years basically, Chad. And the only other time has happened with two starters was, was Pittsburgh. It was Roethlisberger against Tom Brady and Brady basically put up 41. I think he beat him by like 13 points. So it was unique spot. Right. Brady was on the road as a favorite against Ben Roethlisberger, as a home dog after, you know, a bunch of wins. And I, I remember that game. Right. I just remember the Killer Bees and how much hype there was. And Brady just went in there and just dominated that game. So we're kind of banking on that here with, with Josh Allen. Right. I think the general public is joining us. I thought this would be a more public side. This Patriots team. It really has not worked out that way with the money. And, you know, I, the more I dove into it, the more I was like, oh, my God, all this stuff is pointing me to this Patriot side. But I just have to trust Josh Allen. The fact that he did lose them early in the year, and it's a unique thing where he tends to not lose two games in a row. And we're about to find out what's going to be the trendsetter now for the next 10 years between the Drake May, Josh Allen matchup. Because right Now Drake May is 30 against the spread against Josh Allen, which is pretty wild to think because last year the Patriots were terrible. They were terrible last year. And the fact that he's covered both games last year and he started this year with a cover and a win outright on the road in Buffalo. Maybe I am undervaluing this Patriots team continuously, but I just can't get over the. They have, like Chad said, they have so many weaknesses and holes right now that can be exploited. They just have not faced any teams that can exploit those weaknesses. So I love this one. Just like you, I love the Bills. I think we're getting a great number, but I could not get over those variable stats after a bye week. Maybe I'm stepping into here, but I think this guy's due for aggression to the mean with those type of numbers, that's just insane. Those kind of numbers.

[Chad Millman]

We're both stepping in it. This is a season making game for either of these teams. It's a playoff. It's a playoff game. It really is. So is Josh Allen the reigning mvp? Do they have a dominant running game? Does it travel well? All those things still exist.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah.

[Chad Millman]

I'm going to bet on Josh Allen. We are going to bet on Josh Allen.

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[Simon Hunter]

All.

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[Chad Millman]

T o.com will we bet on the Arizona Cardinals? Who are that nine and a half Simon is just holding on against the Houston Texans. It's juiced. I think by Sunday it's going to get to 10. I think by Sunday when the public rolls in and starts betting, we're going to see that number increase. Still sitting it at nine and a half though. Classic buy low, sell high game, right? The line has not budged even though all the bets are coming in on the Texans. That tells you that there's resistance from the wise guys. They're betting on the Cardinals. I have not played this game yet. I'm still waiting for it to get to 10. I don't know if it'll make our contest. I think there's a couple other underdogs we like a little bit more. Are you tempted at all by the reeling, cratering, confused, lacking in defense, struggling Arizona Cardinals Yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

And this could be the type of game where if, if you're, if you don't really love either side, you can, like we've talked about a little bit, beginning of the year, it's a good bet to just blindly, blindly bet the under in these Texas game just because their offense is so questionable and their defense is so dominant. And you know this year has lived up to that, right? They're 10 and three to the under this season. Even going back his last 22 starts, CJ, he's 17, five to the under. So if you don't, if you don't like either side, I guess that's the move. But I, I do really like the Cardinals here. I think off top of my head, I can think of one other time the Texans were this big a favorite with cj. I believe they're eight or an eight and a half point favorite against the Tennessee Titans. They lost that game outright. So just a little perspective of like, okay, the reason that you haven't seen the Texans this big a favorite, especially with cj, is just they tend to not be deserving of it or perform. And betters have taken that, you know, taken that where it's like anytime CG's been a big dog or a big favorite, I should say he's been bet down. That's why this number is. He's never had a number this big. And this is a unique spot where that's, that's how dead the Cardinals are to the general public. They're just totally off of this team, totally leaving them for dead. And I'm just looking at the numbers. Yes, this is not a good matchup for Brissette. Right. You dive into it, this is going to be a game where he's going to be thrown off his point a lot. Where he wants to throw from in the pocket, he will be moved a lot. That's just, that's just going to be the deal of this Texas team. They just have one of the best bass rushes in all football. And we've seen that off season. Right. They just have been dominant rushing the quarterback. So, you know, like Chad said, I'm not going to force this one in. I do like the Cardinals, but I'm with you, it's. I'm still taking the nine and a half, but the 10. That's where I feel more. More confident just because I just have such leaking confidence right now. Not so much in Brissette, but just the head coach. I just feel like he's totally lost his locker room in the Cardinals. And I'm interested to see how they end this next four games because you've seen a lot of reports, a lot of really respectable guys in the media saying he might be out, like Gannon might be done. Him and Kyler might be both out the door come the end of the season. So it's gonna be interesting how this team plays for them for the next four games after getting just absolutely blown out their past. Past few.

[Chad Millman]

We do owe the people a brass balls, so we can. We can think about this one. I. I have an idea. You and I forgot to discuss this before we came on the air. I have an idea of what I think brass balls should be. It's not. It's not this game. I'll be curious to see if you and I agree on it. So let's continue. Let's put a pin in that. It's just a reminder for both of us. So Cincinnati, two and a half point underdogs, at Baltimore. I don't think this is going to make it, but it's. It was a newsworthy game to begin with because it's Cincinnati and Baltimore and it's just a great matchup, but it's also a great matchup of teams that are reeling. And I'm sorry it's Baltimore or Cincinnati, by the way. Not Baltimore, not Cincinnati at Baltimore. And I can't really get there on either team right now. Joe is so sad. Lamar hasn't really been playing as well as we expected him to. The defenses for both teams are pretty bad. Like, I find no edge here. I definitely don't want to play it in the contest. I just wanted to bring it up because it's in sharp calls and Joe's feeling blue. He's not Joe Cool. He's Joe blue.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. And I took a little bit of shame on me. I. I know. I. I usually don't like just continuously betting guys who are underdogs because eventually, like you just said, it's probably gonna go the other way. But Joe burrow as a dog, he just covers. And I've given out those numbers, especially when it gets above 3 and this number is heading that way. Like, since we've been talking, this number's moving to three. In a couple books. So I talked about this. Number went down to one and a half. Joe Burrow gave the most somber, depressing interview ever, talking about he's not having fun anymore and he doesn't know if he loves the game as much as he used to. Now the number is moving up to three. So I'll check. Maybe there's something I'm missing. Maybe there's an injury I don't know about. But everything I've seen, this feels like two teams going in totally different directions. Like this Ravens team, we keep thinking they're going to figure it out and be that team we saw these last five, six years, right? They're going to figure it out. But you keep looking at it. The underlying number. It's just Lamar is not as good. He simply is not as good as he's been in previous years. And yeah, that game, unlucky, right? They probably should have won it. Decided by the referees. Whatever you want to say, they were not going to cover that game. So that's. That's another game. With the market overvalued and feels like it's going the same way here. Like, if this is now up to three, I kind of love the Bengals. If they get the three and a half in our contest, we're gonna have a real conversation come Sunday. So just look at all the different metrics. Even when Lamar and this Ravens team were dominant, absolutely dominant, they've struggled against the NFC North. He's 5 and 9 against the spread against his division. When he's on the road, he's 3 and 5 against the spread in his division. So Lamar, through his dominant years, he's always struggled with his own divisional opponents, and we've saw them just play, you know, a couple weeks ago. The Bengals are gonna be able to move the ball. We have no doubt about that. We just. Is Lamar going to show up and move the ball against his Bengals defense? That is super suspect. He should be able to. Yeah. But I think Joe's going to keep us in this one. So I'm with you. I'm not going to force it. I'm not going to force a two and a half because I do think people listening to this, you'll keep getting a better number and there are threes out there. So right now, two and a half, I'm with you. I wouldn't make this into the contest, but three and a half, that's gonna be a real conversation with Joe. He's just as a dog. I talk about a dog bigger than three. He's 193 against the spread. So it's just, that's just an incredible number. And he's 20 this season since he's been back as a dog. Bigger than three.

[Chad Millman]

Simon. The Cleveland Browns are visiting the Chicago Bears and that number has stayed at 7 and a half. Haven't bet it yet. Let me ask you this though. It's going to be so cold in Chicago, both teams are going to want to run the ball. This is not going to be a, we said this last week, it's not going to be a Shador Sanders game. It's. It's going to be a Cleveland Browns defense game this week. It's not going to be a Shador Sanders game. It's going to be a Quinshon Judgekins game. It's going to be an amazing rush offense against one of the best rush defenses. It's going to be what can be an effective rush offense against in the Bears, one of the worst rush defenses. Do we ignore the line value because we are in love with the Bears? Do we not play a game that we would nine times out of ten play because we lost with the Browns the past week by betting on their defense? Isn't this what we do on this show, backing the Browns?

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, I'm, I'm with you. Like I've come around. I'm going to back the Browns. I don't feel good about it. I'm just, I don't either. Yeah, I'm just worried they've quit on their coach and this season and we're basically betting this one because the Browns, as bad as they've been this year, they've won a bunch of games outright when the spread is above seven and a half. Like they've been pretty dominant for some reason when the, when they're big underdogs. And you know, as a Bears fan, this is by far the biggest spread of Caleb Blim's career. He's never been a 7 1/2 point favorite. So unique spot. The trends obviously hate the Chicago in the spot just like they did last week. Right. I gave you those stats. I think they were 1 in 11 against the spread against Green Bay. Well, it's not much better the week after they play Green bay. So since 2019, Green Bay one eight and one against the spread after they played the packers when they're a favorite. The following game they're owing three against the spread. So, you know, not ideal. It seems like the type of thing where they put so much emotion, so much into that, that divisional game makes sense Right. Especially now they're playing the Browns. Why wouldn't they have a letdown game? Right. This is not a game that's. It's gonna be tough to get up to, let alone when Chad said they're going to be walking outside. It's gonna be hitting them the face minus 10 degrees and wind chill. It's going to be a truly miserable experience that game. So I love it. Like, this is my favorite type of football games, the old school frozen field and it's just the best. So I'll be with you on this Cleveland side. They're just. Like I said, they just. They're making me leak confidence. I just can't believe how bad the defense was against Tennessee last week. Against the run. It was just alarming because they've been so dominant this season. So try not to overreact. We expect the Cleveland to bounce back here, especially defensively. But my God, I'm happy if we can avoid this one other contest.

[Chad Millman]

I. I don't have it making the contest right now. I think there's other games. It's also an interesting brass balls opportunity. It's not where I want to land on brass balls. I got another one that's a contender, but I just want to raise it that we both like the Browns. I haven't pulled the trigger on it yet. I'm a little bit nervous about it, but it's there. It's there for the taking and it's what. It's what we would normally do. Detroit visiting Los Angeles Rams talked about it in sharp calls. This was a game you quietly talked about on Tuesday with like a weird. We've been doing this a long time and I get like. You mention a game, you say it in a way that feels like you almost don't want me to hear it. Like you like it so much. You just want to say you like it because you're obligated to say truthful information and your honest opinions on this show, but you prefer nobody hear it at all. That was my takeaway from the Rams. The Rams were a five and a half. That line's moving. It's moving in. In the Rams direction. It's at six at Hard Rock. I've seen some six and a halfs pop up. Am I misinterpreting this? Am I over? Am I. Am I putting too much into it?

[Simon Hunter]

No, not at all. I just. Again, this is a weird. A weird job. It's a little bit of a juggling act. I have people that pay. I know people don't believe It. But people do pay insane amount of money for my picks. I always have to give them the best of the number, especially when if I like a game a lot. So yeah, it was a little bit of tongue in cheek. I showed my. My hand a little bit that. I really love this spot. I didn't want to say too much though because I don't want people to miss the best of the number, which it's going now. Like you said, it's. It's hitting six almost every book. So hopefully my clients got it. Hopefully fans of the show got it. But yeah, I love this spot. I love the situation. This Lions team sure can they cover and win this game like they have the last four years with Campbell and the golf combo? Yeah, but we've been talking about it. Just it's not hitting like it used to. There is something different about this team. And other than just the injuries, I feel like we've seen the Ben Johnson effect really affect this team. They're just not the same offensively. Especially when you have a guy like Dan Campbell going for it every time he can on 4th and 2, 4th of 3, not even thinking about situationally where they're on the field or what the best move is. And I can give all the stats if you want about how great golf is as a dog. Right. We know him and Campbell 4 point underdog or more 173 against the spread. You know, they just. They cover in this exact spot. It's what they've done these last four years together. And I get that. But I've talked about. I just think there's something different and it's. It's McVeigh's month. It's December. McVeigh since 2021 16. Three against the spread in December. The matchup. When I really break it down, look into it. I just see so many advantages for this Rams team to attack this offensive line of Detroit. On the flip side, you know, praise to the Detroit run defense. I think they haven't had 100 rusher all season and they've been really dominant in that aspect. But I think it's because they're secondary so bad. Why would teams run it where you can just pick up trunk yards every time you drop back? And I think Puka right now is if he's not the number one receiver in the league because of, you know, Jackson, Smith and Jigba, he's number two in all the categories. He has the most receptions, like yards, all that stuff. He's right behind JSN. And on the flip side, we've talked about Devonte Adams. He's probably what, the fourth or fifth best receiver in football. He's got like 14 touchdowns. So it's like it. Talk about a dream scenario for the Stafford in this matchup indoors at home. Could she be in a shootout? Right. If you want to take a position in that way. But I just feel like this type of game where they're going to try to take away Gibbs, make golf beat him downfield and we've seen it. Golf has not done well with pressure in his face and this is the exact type of game he'll get that. So yeah, I honestly wanted to make this our, our bet but unfortunately it's moved too much. Like it's. It's minus six which I'm still betting the six. But if this was five and a half, Chad, would we. I think we probably could agreed on this being the pick for the day. But it's not.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, yeah. It's not going to be brass balls. I think we're going to have to do something even brassier and ballsier for brass balls. But we both love the Rams here. We both bit into the Rams five and a half. I hope everyone was listening on Tuesday. Got the five and a half. If you can get the six, great. Get the six that you didn't get the best of it but you know it's still a good number. The matchup here to me you just said is the key. I don't know what defense the Rams the Lions are going to play like they tried playing zone. It was a little bit more effective against the Cowboys. But the Rams are not the Cowboys like they, they can do it all. Matthew Stafford is so good right now. Puka Nukua is so good right now. They're playing that 13 personnel that can deceive teams in so many different ways. They can power run game. They can find guys open in the middle of that zone. If that's what the Lions decide to play, which they really haven't. They've done it once this whole season. They're. They're a man to man team and Stafford eats up man to man. So it's a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario defensively for the Lions who have lost one of their best defensive players in Brian Branch Carolina at the New Orleans Saints. New Orleans Saints plus two and a half. This was Simon says there were some threes available right after we got off the air on Tuesday. For much of Tuesday there were some threes there. It's back down to Two and a half. I don't, I don't think it's gonna last. So, I mean, I don't think the threes will. I think it could get back to three, but I don't think the threes are gonna last. We hate betting against the Panthers. We hate it especially when they got a chance to take control of the NFC South. The Darlings, the team that we've loved for years, but we're both on the Saints here.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, I think, I think threes will pop just because the books, they're getting so much Panthers money. I think they're gonna need some Saints money and the only way they're gonna get is by Pop. 3. Right. Not people are going to force and take the two and a half until Sunday when they really need to. And it's last minute. I think throughout the week you should see some threes pop up. And you know, it's just because who's betting The Saints, right? It's, it's kind of a spot you don't really want to be back then, like from the general public's perspective because they just won a really tough divisional game now coming home. You know, anybody can look at these numbers, but I was alarmed when the buddy sent me these numbers about the Saints team and I, I gave you the stat right there last week. On the road in divisional as an underdog, they're 8, 0 now, 9, 0 on the road. God, their home stats are terrible, Chad. I cannot believe how bad these stats are. Since 2020 is an underdog at home, the Saints 4 and 17 straight up, 5 and 16 against the spread. That's, I mean, that's the worst mark in the NFL of any team.

[Chad Millman]

Right. But Simon, what Is Bryce Young on the road as a, as a favorite?

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, yeah. He's never covered. Yeah, I just, I just, that was just a simple saint step, just how bad they've been. So I love this one. Like you just said, it's two, it's two immovable objects meeting and something's got to give. Right? So you said at Bryce Young, in his early career, he's only been a favorite so many times and you know, 11 times he's been a straight up favorite. He is not covered or won any of those games. He's 0 and 11. So you're right, it's a unique spot. I, I, I just want people to get the three just because of how bad that Saints this Saints team bit. We're going to need every point we can get. But I've talked about this Saints team, surprisingly, you know, even going back to 2020, they've always matched up really well against the Panthers. Doesn't matter if it was Derek Carr or Taysom Hill at quarterback. They've just had a rotation of guys. It's they, they've covered. They played really well against this Panthers team. So unique spot. Like you said, it's a game I'm leaking a little bit of confidence on, which is, you know, just part of it. The more you dive into the Saints team, it's just like, my God, how, how do they keep winning? And a couple people ask me about Chuck because he is 2001 to win rookie of the year. It really is just about the way their, their season can play out, right? It's not. Do I really think this kid's gonna bet beat out Tedro, McMillan or Dart. Probably not, right? If you go look at those guys numbers, much better. It's really just about how they end their season. The, the Saints, basically, if they win this game, they, they have kind of a cakewalk. Chad. And then there's like a outside chance scenario, you know, the fact they play the jets next week, that's a big deal, right? Like, okay, say they win those two games. Now he's got the most wins of all the rookie quarterbacks, right? He's up to five wins. That's not nothing. So just to me, people ask about, they're like, are you really betting 2001 on Chuck to win rookie of the Year? It's just an outside shot he gets. If he can beat the Panthers, that'd be pretty crazy. Then he beats the Jets. Again, not as crazy. Then he's at Tennessee. That's a possibility. Outplays the other first number one overall pick and then he's at Atlanta. So it's like none of those teams are juggernauts. There is a path for shuck to go 4, 0, 3 and 1 and put up some good numbers. I'll bet that 200 1. Like I'll take those odds. I'll throw 10 bucks on it. Why not? If you want to get really weird, you can throw him in there with McCaffrey, who's 181 to be offensive player of the year. He might be a thousand thousand season. Like you can bet those two together. All of a sudden you have 301. Like you can really get fun with it with these long shot odds. So I had a couple people ask, like, are you really betting Shuck to win rook of the year? I don't really believe it. I just, when I saw that schedule, it's like I squint my eyes a little bit. I'm like, I can see a path for three and one. And if he can go six touchdowns, one turnover in that stretch, there's a path for him to get rook of the year. So just something to keep in mind if you're looking for a fun long shot future, have a good time.

[Chad Millman]

Throw the Chiefs to make the playoffs in there too. Why not?

[Simon Hunter]

That's the craziest one of all. It's probably the worst odds.

[Chad Millman]

Just go for it. Green Bay at Denver. This was Chad's choice. The Green Bay Packers -2. I think that the packers, you and I had been struggling with the packers all year because all of the advanced metrics keep saying how great they are, but they hadn't seemed dominant on the field. Right. They were 9, 3 and 1 heading into that Bears game. And what I saw in that Bears game was just a complete team. Now the Bears were able to run the ball in the second half, but how they were able to cover overall and the way Jordan Love was able to respond to pressure, the fact they've gotten so many of their receivers back, I love this roster. I love the speed in their defense. I love the way Jordan Love throws against man coverage, which is what the Broncos are going to play. They're going to go against single high coverage, which is what Jordan Love loves to throw against. Everything about this matchup, to me, I feel like I'm getting about a point of value. I think that the packers should be three point favorites because I think the ultimate decision here coaching is even defense. Probably even. I think the difference is the quarterback and that's worth a lot to me. Give me the Green Bay packers two points favorites.

[Simon Hunter]

Well, yeah, we both love the Packers. A game that no matter what, even if it was two and a half, I'd be all over it. Not going to let the hook scare me off. Just think matchup wise, they're the better team. They should probably be minus 3 and tons of respect by the professionals on this Broncos team. Right? For good reason. They, they're really well coached. They've really grinded out a lot of these games and we've talked about Bo Nicks as much as he's regressed in some people's eyes this year. He's been incredible in these fourth quarters leading his team to come back wins and it's just been really impressive. And you know, I gave up that amazing stat by Evan Abrams. It's just a unique spot. This is another team just like the patriots, they've won 10 straight games. The Broncos, and now they are a home underdog. So since 2005, eight teams have closed an underdog in this exact spot. Two, five and one against the spread, these teams. So it lets you know right there, the Broncos, this is not a good spot. You might think it is. You're getting a home dog here. You're. You're fired up. But long term, it's just a loser. The books are kind of telling you. Right. The professionals are telling you here which team is the better team. They just threw out the records. Right. It's. It matters what happens on the field. And you've seen it this year. In my opinion, the NFC to me is just a better conference than the afc. Like the afc, some of these teams have so many more weaknesses than nfc. And we talk there's something missing with this Green Bay team. I don't know if the Broncos are the type of team that could exploit those type of scenarios. So I, I really do love them here. And you know, if it gets the three I get. If you have some type of hesitation there, but hopefully you can get the two. The minus two and a half there should be up there still by Sunday. I just think professional money, anytime Broncos touch a three, they'll hit it. So I'm hoping people won't be scared off by this one. I really love the packers in the spot.

[Chad Millman]

We're total agreement here. There's twos and two and a halfs out there if you're not in a hard rock state. So definitely look around. But yeah, we're. The packers are going to be in the contest. There's not.

[Simon Hunter]

I did have a chad stat. Didn't want to give out just because Jay colors in this stat. Packers are 1 in 7 in their history on the road. In Denver, the only win came back in 2007 in overtime. Brett Favre beaten Jay Cutler.

[Chad Millman]

As Jay Cutler would say, don't care. Last game on the board that I want to talk about, I think should be our brass balls bet of the week?

[Simon Hunter]

Let's do it.

[Chad Millman]

The Minnesota Vikings visiting the Dallas Cowboys. Are you with me? Are you with me on the Minnesota Vikings? Love the Minnesota Vikings. Should we make it our brass balls presented by Hard Rock bet.

[Simon Hunter]

Let's do it. Definitely a ballsy bet.

[Chad Millman]

All right. Minnesota Vikings plus six at Hard Rock bet against the Dallas Cowboys. That is our brass balls bet of the week presented by Hard Rock Bat.

[Simon Hunter]

You know what it takes. It takes brass balls.

[Chad Millman]

Forget about J.J. mcCarthy for a second. The Vikings defense has been playing lights out the past few weeks, just getting better and better and better. And to me, what they can do to potentially neutralize Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys offense vs what the Cowboys can do to defend against anything that the Vikings are going to do is so much greater that I have to believe in what I've seen when Kevin o' Connell can just tell his quarterback and put him in a halfway decent position against a defense that is as bad as the one they just played in Washington. So I'm buying the Minnesota Vikings.

[Simon Hunter]

I don't hate it like I've talked a little bit about it. This is a game I early bet the Vikings and it's kind of the way you talked about. It's really a bet on their defense and this matchup that I do think they'll be able to get stops against the Cowboys. On the flip side, you know, as bad as JJ's looked, you've seen him when he's on script, they can move the ball really well. And this is a great defense for KFC to script against. There's just a lot of things you can take advantage of. So, you know, it's a rare opportunity you have. A Dallas Cowboys team is a big favorite against what we consider still being undervalued Vikings team. And when you really break it down, they're not that different really. I mean, as great as Dak has been, you know, these two teams just aren't that different. And the public perceives it is totally different. Right. I think you can see the numbers I'm looking at, which is basically 80% of the bets, 80% of the money. All of it's just coming in on this Dallas Cowboys team. And it is a unique spot back in Minnesota that we're not. We're not the biggest Minnesota backers here. We've not really been on them or gone against them that much this season. But this does feel like a unique spot with this number at 6 to.

[Chad Millman]

Be backing them for every season there is a time Simon, we have certain.

[Simon Hunter]

Teams we lock in on and I have true a couple more games if you want to run through of just crazy stats.

[Chad Millman]

Always, always.

[Simon Hunter]

Like I said, I am. There's no one worse at the handicappy Tennessee Titans game. I believe on Tuesday I said I was on the 49ers. Yeah, right.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

I have flipped. I have been bullied by professional betters. I am coming around on Tennessee. I'm gonna take a position on Tennessee. But again, I don't know if we'll make it in Our contest, but no fucking way.

[Chad Millman]

We're just not gonna do it.

[Simon Hunter]

Wait till you hear these stats, Chad.

[Chad Millman]

I don't want to hear the stats, Simon. Do we need Matt Mitchell to go back and pull the clip that we played on Tuesday?

[Simon Hunter]

What?

[Chad Millman]

What did we say? What did we say?

[Simon Hunter]

I'm not putting in the contest. I'm just giving you the stats for Thursday show with our loyal fans, which I hope they listen to me. I said to fade me.

[Chad Millman]

This is on you. This is on you. I take no responsibility.

[Simon Hunter]

No Nelly. No Nelly. Kyle Shanahan, the 4 and these 49ers, they are 4 and 8 against the spread off a bye week, which is pretty extreme. They've lost three straight. They're one of five off the bye week since 2021 when he faces a team below.500. Shanahan Owen, three off a buy week against this red. So I. I don't know why in my mind I thought Shannon was great off a bye week. I think I said that on Tuesday when I went and looked it up. It's atrocious. Off of bye week. And that's all I needed to flip me, because I just. I cannot get this Tennessee team right. And it's like, what am I missing here? Why are the pros betting this team again? And there's your answer. So let's move it on to the next game because like Chad said, we're not gonna be betting this one. Pittsburgh, Miami. Where were you at? Were you. You were on Miami, right? Or were you?

[Chad Millman]

I was. I was on Miami plus three and a half on Tuesday.

[Simon Hunter]

That's. That to me, does feel like the sharp side, the three and a half. But if you're like me and you just don't want to throw out the spread, you want to go strict money line, which is what I want to do here. Some amazing stats about the Steelers money line in this exact opportunity. Since 1992, on Monday Night Football games, the Steelers are 22 and one straight up. Their only losses in 2020 against the Commanders. I don't know if you remember 2020. There were no stands in the stands. Yeah, that's. Throw it out. They are just unbelievable at home on Monday night. If you throw that one out there. 22:0 straight up on Monday Night Football at home since 1992. In his career, Aaron Rodgers 11, two straight up on Monday Night Football. So there's just a lot of trends that point to liking it. And then let's get to all the Tua stats. Two outdoors in the cold, two and seven straight up one and eight against the spread in his career when it's under 40 degrees he's zero and five straight up one and four against the spread. Losing those games by 19 points per game. So my God, we know two is horrible in the cold. I had no idea the stats were that bad. So what Chad said can be true, right? This Miami team have been hiding to it for a couple weeks.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

Can they just lean into the run and get away with it? Possibly. But my God, do all those stats point to them just laying a total egg here in Miami. Especially coming off a divisional win on the road now traveling to Pittsburgh. It seems like the perfect spot to fade this team. So I'm still going to be dug in. Steelers minus three. I'll still take it. But I, I could not believe those Monday night stats for this, this Pittsburgh team. Historically they just came to dominate. And my last game, again we don't. I think you more had to read on than I did. I just, I, I couldn't really get behind Washington or the Giants. I just, I remember when you brought the game up, did you like Giants or did you like Washington? I don't remember.

[Chad Millman]

I liked Washington but at the time I thought it might be Jaden Daniels. Now we know it's not going to.

[Simon Hunter]

Be Jaden Daniels which is to me is better. That's to me is why I'm kind of, I kind of like Washington now and the line reflects that. It's come down a little bit. It's come down from the two and a half to two. This is my favorite lazy man stat. We always talk about lazy man stats. I love a good, like give me a good stat. I don't need to think about the game anymore. I'll just bet it off this stat blindly. What have we been doing so well that we missed last week? We've been betting teams that's. We bet on teams that get shut out.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

And it's been tried or true for me and Chad for years. And the stats back it up since 2015. Teams that got shot on the previous game, 34, 173 against the spread this season, 40 against the spread. So if you just want to lazy man, blindly bet it, it's a good bet. It just shows these teams that get shut out or embarrassed. These are grown ass men. They bounce back. Like whatever it is, we've seen it time and time again. These teams tend to bounce back. The commanders, if you go through it, they've owned the Giants in this matchup. Like I always talk these divisional matchups the Commanders who have just been awful throughout these last four or five years. Even the Giants were semi good with Daniel Jones. They'd always beat them in this matchup so it is unique. I I kind of like the Commander especially plus two and a half. I know it's two now at Hard Rock. There's plus there's a bunch of two and a halfs up there. I've come around the Commanders team. I think it's it's probably a good spot, especially the fact that Mariota is back and just looking at the splits, everyone's left them for dead. People are now hammering and backing this Giants team. They believe in the Giants as a home favorite, so feels like a rare opportunity to jump on this Washington team.

[Chad Millman]

Here look, that one is of the ones you added in, it's the one I hate the least.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, it was a gross end of the show, but I had to give out all the stats.

[Chad Millman]

I just.

[Simon Hunter]

I love them.

[Chad Millman]

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All.

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[Richard Sherman]

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[Chad Millman]

All right, what are you laughing at?

[Simon Hunter]

I have tons of people sending me all these videos from people in sports media about Jalen Hurts. Like, but people are like, should Hertz be benched? Matt Mitchell said he's willing to die for Josh Allen, a man that's never even won an AFC championship game. Eagles fans have a quarterback that's taking them two Super Bowls. They're saying, should this guy be benched? Two worlds. We live in two worlds, Chad. And the other world sucks. I can't imagine being in a world that you want to sit hurts and you hate Josh Allen. Those people just suck.

[Chad Millman]

That's why I so love Philly sports fans, but also so love Buffalo sports fans. They are such distinct personalities. Like, it's just so much fun to engage with both groups all of the time. It's. It's totally amazing. The reason why we're the that Matt Mitchell said he would die for Josh Allen is because Simon the other day sent in our group text chain a video of Josh Allen being interviewed when he had just gotten to Wyoming and he was the second string backup quarterback. And they're asking him about the snow. And he's so wholesome, in earnest.

[Simon Hunter]

He's like stuttering over his own words. He's so young and sweet.

[Chad Millman]

So young and sweet and innocent, like a babe in the woods. He's like, I've never seen snow like this. He's like, what do you like to do? Well, I just want to go out to eat with my friends and, you know, play football. Anything football related that's. It's like this guy eventually married Haley Steinfeld.

[Simon Hunter]

It became Superman. It's.

[Chad Millman]

It's became a Superman. Totally awesome. Matt. Matt Mitchell makes good choices in his heroes. All right, Simon, what are your biggest bets?

[Simon Hunter]

Pull up those pants and be a man. I mean, show man a little bit. Love the Rams. Obviously you do.

[Chad Millman]

I didn't. I didn't. That didn't come across.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. Took a position. Chad. Read it pretty good. I do love the Chiefs. I'm getting a little weary because it's so much love. Like, everyone I talk to is right there with us, so I've slowed down a little bit, but I do really love the Chiefs in that spot. We talk a little about the Bills. I really like the Bills and it's not one of my bigger bets right now, but I can see myself getting there. So we just sit here right now. My two biggest bets for sure. Green Bay, the two. Two and a half, and the. The Rams minus five And a half. I haven't touched so much to ramp at 6, but I wouldn't let it scare me off. I'll still bet it comes up Sunday underdog parlay.

[Chad Millman]

I have New Orleans. I have Cincinnati. I have Washington.

[Simon Hunter]

Love it.

[Chad Millman]

I have Minnesota.

[Simon Hunter]

Okay, I love that, too.

[Chad Millman]

Minnesota.

[Simon Hunter]

And for our last one, Cleveland.

[Chad Millman]

I was looking for a decent sized number.

[Simon Hunter]

I get where you're coming from. Let me be the bigger scumbag here. Give me the Raiders plus 490.

[Chad Millman]

I knew you were gonna say that.

[Simon Hunter]

I gotta do it again. This, I think they're gonna win. They should blow out this Raiders team. But we, we've seen in football when, when, when this, when teams collapse under their own weight, this is. This, this tends to happen. So just at that number, I have to bet it. That's too big for the.

[Chad Millman]

You really just want the conversation about Jalen Hurst to continue?

[Simon Hunter]

Not at all. I just, I want to make money off the suffering. That's the key here.

[Chad Millman]

Favorite, by the way, the only of the big numbers, you know, Seattle, Indy and Arizona and Houston and Vegas and Philly. I forgot the other big number that we were talking about before.

[Simon Hunter]

Tennessee.

[Chad Millman]

Tennessee. Vegas. And Philly is the only one that's moved in the direction of the underdog. It was a 12 and a half. Now it's 11 and a half. 11. The other ones have just gone up, except for Arizona, which is holding strong. So we know the wise guys are on Vegas here. Who's our favorite parlay? I feel like we got to go. Like we got. We got to go with the Rams.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. Green Bay.

[Chad Millman]

Green Bay, Chiefs. Kansas City. Buffalo.

[Simon Hunter]

What you say?

[Chad Millman]

Buffalo.

[Simon Hunter]

Buffalo. You know, obviously I'm people. I gave him that stat. The Pittsburgh one.

[Chad Millman]

I was just going to say Pittsburgh.

[Simon Hunter]

It's got to be. It's got to be a play.

[Chad Millman]

All right. Sharp versus Square.

[Simon Hunter]

Sharp versus Square.

[Chad Millman]

We tied last week. We tied.

[Simon Hunter]

I'll do. Because I, I, I tend to go dogs here because I'm just so much better at them, but I'll go. I gotta do it. I guess I'll go. Rams minus six.

[Chad Millman]

Okay. Rams minus six. Chad. Let's see. Chad. Chad's choice was the Packers. Simon says was the Saints. Brass balls was the Vikings. I think I'm going to go with the Bills.

[Simon Hunter]

I love it.

[Chad Millman]

You think I just jinxed Matt Mitchell? Is that what you're saying?

[Simon Hunter]

A little bit. I'm already doing some. I love the Bills so much here, too. And it's just. That's how history happens. Like I said, you just. It's the ones you don't see coming that hurt the most. And that's what I'm worried about here, brother.

[Chad Millman]

Well, look, we're, we're riding a knife's edge all season with some of these teams, right? Like trying to get off the wagon with the Chiefs, the Bills, the Ravens. Like trying to see where the transition this is betting you're trying to see the future. It doesn't always work out. When we reconvene on Sunday, we're going to be talking about the Chiefs, the Bills, Cleveland will have a conversation, the Rams, New Orleans will be in the conversation. Green Bay, Minnesota, maybe Washington. That's what I think, maybe Washington. Those are going to be the games from which we choose our final five. If I had to make a prediction, this has been Sharper Square part of the Volume Podcast network. We'll be back on Sunday Morning Sharper Square YouTube. Don't forget you can eavesdrop on this very intimate conversation as we try to plan for the misery and glory of the day. We'll be back On Sharper Square YouTube Sunday night, 7:30ish after America's game of the week ends, we're going to recap all that misery we watch or listen on YouTube @Sharpersquare. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods rate. Review subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time.

[Simon Hunter]

Love you.

[Coca-Cola Announcer]

Together we can do it.

[Simon Hunter]

Nobody can do it alone, but together we can do it. Let's play our kind of football and we'll come out of it with a win. Let's go.

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What a matchup we got y'.

[Richard Sherman]

All.

[Coca-Cola Announcer]

This is that classic HBCU vibe. Non stop action. The band is rocking and the crowd lit. Chance echo drum beat everybody. Showing that school pride. Game like this. Yeah. It calls for an ice cold Coca Cola.

[Simon Hunter]

Ah.

[Coca-Cola Announcer]

Crisp and refreshing. That's a game changer right there. Yeah, that taste.

[Chad Millman]

Oh.

[Coca-Cola Announcer]

Always hits the right note. Just like the band at halftime. And just like that we're back at it. Passionate fans, school colors everywhere and in ice cold Coca Cola. That's a winning combo no matter the sport, no matter the yard. Everybody knows fan work is thirsty work. So grab a Coca Cola and keep that HBCU pride going.

[Richard Sherman]

Ready or not is the tactical first person shooter where you take command of a SWAT team and and every decision matters. I reunited with my Legion of Boom teammates Cam Chancellor, Cliff Aver, Michael Bennett and Walter Thurman to go through real SWAT training and see why over 13 million players are into this game. Watch our training now at Richard Sherman Podcast YouTube channel this isn't mindless Running Gun. The game demands elite teamwork and sharp strategic thinking. Just like what the Legion of Boom brought to the field every single game. Try the limited time free trial on PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X and S. Play now and feel the weight.

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[Simon Hunter]

Helms Tonight's Review Tactical Jacket I was.

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Didn't get out much.

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Then I bought this jacket and everything changed. Women came flocking to me from lands domestic and foreign. On the 245 day sailboat voyage home, I was attacked by a shark. I knew it was the jacket he was after, giving up the jacket in.

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[Chad Millman]

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[Simon Hunter]

Boom 42. You're going down, Doug. Oh yeah.

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[Simon Hunter]

Hey limu.

[Chad Millman]

What are you doing on their team?

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[Chad Millman]

Liberty. Liberty. Liberty.

[Simon Hunter]

This is an I heart podcast. Guaranteed human.