Sharp or Square – NFL Week 15: Betting Breakdown & Sharp Picks

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Episode: SHARP NFL WEEK 15 BETS
Date: December 11, 2025

Overview

In this lively Week 15 edition, betting expert Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter dissect the key NFL games from a betting perspective, distinguishing between “sharp” (wiseguy) and “square” (public) sides. The duo delivers insights on where the smart money is heading, which picks the pros are on, and the “Brass Balls” contrarian bet of the week. Expect a podcast peppered with betting stats, sharp call breakdowns, and candid banter, all aimed at giving listeners a betting edge.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. State of Mind, Listener Corrections, and Movie References

• Opening Mood: Simon notes he’s feeling better after prior weeks’ tough losses. Chad reassures listeners that showing emotion is part of being a fan.
• Fun Correction: Chad walks back a movie quote misattribution from the previous episode, blending pod chemistry and pop culture.
  “Shame on me… shame on Matt [Mitchell] for not correcting it. Shame on the listeners for signing up for this dreck.” (Chad, 06:15)

2. Sharp Calls Recap

(07:17 - 10:47)

Simon brings insights from professional betting circles:

• Atlanta Falcons – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Thursday):

  • Sharps leaning Atlanta, but Simon’s staying off the spread due to the unpredictability of both squads.
  • “Baker doesn’t blow teams out. They tend to play really close games.” (Simon, 07:25)

• Buffalo Bills – New England Patriots:

  • Heavy professional money initially on Patriots, but “line in the sand” moved back toward Bills.

• Pros Agree On: Rams, Packers, Chiefs.

• Saints – Panthers:

  • Less pro love for Saints than expected, despite an emotional Saints win last week.

• Bengals:

  • “Tons and tons of love for this Bengals side” among sharps.

• Big Dogs:

  • Pros like big underdogs such as Raiders, Seahawks, and Colts this week.
  • Simon’s cautious and not loving all of them.

3. Contest Housekeeping & Listener Engagement

(10:47 - 13:57)

• Sharper Square Contest: Only one entry per person.
• Winning Threshold: Listeners debate how many wins out of 45 picks will take the grand prize. Chad jokes about last year’s winner:
  “It wasn’t won by a professional gambler, okay? …It was won by a rancher from Bow Bells, North Dakota.” (Chad, 12:37)

Featured Game Breakdowns & Betting Angles

Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5 to -5.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers

(13:57 – 17:50)

• Injuries & Spot:
  • Normally, a go-to play on Herbert as an underdog, but due to significant O-line injuries and Herbert’s hand, Simon is siding with the Chiefs.
  • “This is unique. This is a man that only has one hand…” (Simon, 13:57)
• Trends:
  • Herbert: 11-2-1 ATS as a dog >3.5 but 0-4 ATS vs. Andy Reid.
• Chad’s Conviction:
  • “I don’t feel gross [about betting KC]… this team… has hit rock bottom.” (Chad, 16:14)

Buffalo Bills (-1) at New England Patriots

(17:50 – 22:57)

• Josh Allen Factor:
  • Chad and Simon betting on Allen’s ability to bounce back after losses and as a short favorite.
  • “Every scenario you can think of… favors Josh Allen.” (Chad, 18:26)
• Trend Stat:
  • Patriots’ coach Vrabel: “6-1 straight up and against the spread off a bye week” (Simon, 20:16)
• Conclusion:
  • Blind faith in Allen despite the numbers loving the Patriots; it's a must-win, playoff-style spot.

Arizona Cardinals (+9.5 to +10) vs. Houston Texans

(28:14 – 31:29)

• A “Buy-Low, Sell-High” Spot:
  • Wiseguys resisting the public money on Houston.
  • Simon prefers Arizona, especially if line moves to +10.
  • Texans very rarely favored by this much.
  • “The reason you haven’t seen the Texans this big a favorite… they tend to not be deserving of it or perform.” (Simon, 29:22)

Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens

(31:29 – 34:57)

• Joe Burrow ATS as an Underdog:
  • Approaching “must-bet” territory as line nears +3.
  • Caution: Waiting for a better number before making contest picks.

Cleveland Browns (+7.5) at Chicago Bears

(34:57 – 37:47)

• Weather Impact:
  • Could be an ugly, cold “slugfest.”
  • Both show hesitancy to commit, but lean Browns due to historical trends as big dogs.
• Caveats:
  • “I'm just, I don't either… I'm just worried they've quit on their coach…” (Simon, 36:04)

Los Angeles Rams (-6) vs. Detroit Lions

(39:13 – 41:59)

• Sharp Favorite:
  • Simon reveals Rams are “one of his biggest bets.”
  • McVay is a December covering machine: 16-3 ATS since 2021.
  • Potential matchup advantage exploiting Detroit’s weak pass D.
  • “There's something different about this team.” (Simon, 39:13)

New Orleans Saints (+2.5) vs. Carolina Panthers

(43:53 – 47:40)

• Stat Battle:
  • Saints at home as underdogs: 5-16 ATS since 2020 (!)
  • Bryce Young never won or covered as a road favorite (0-11).
  • Both sides of the matchup present historically bad trends.
• Unique Opportunity:
  • Betting the Saints is gross, but they’ve historically matched well against Carolina.

Green Bay Packers (-2) at Denver Broncos

(47:45 – 51:17)

• Strong Consensus:
  • Both love the Packers at -2/-2.5.
  • AFC/NFC comparison: Packers seen as simply the better team.
  • “Matchup wise, they're the better team. They should probably be minus 3…” (Simon, 49:10)

Brass Balls Pick of the Week

(51:28 – 52:47)

Minnesota Vikings (+6) at Dallas Cowboys

• Selected as the contrarian, “hold your nose” dog play.

• “Should we make it our brass balls?” Chad: “Let’s do it.” Simon: “Definitely a ballsy bet.” (51:40)

  • Vikings’ defense is surging; Cowboys overvalued by public.
  • Chad: “I'm buying the Minnesota Vikings.” (52:47)

Lightning Round: Other Notable Bets & Stats

(53:53 – 59:01)

• Titans-49ers:
  • Sharps moving to Tennessee after learning Shanahan is 4-8 ATS off bye weeks. (Simon, 54:47)
• Steelers-Dolphins MNF:
  • “Since 1992, on Monday Night Football games, the Steelers are 22 and 1 straight up.” (Simon, 55:40)
• Commanders-Giants:
  • System play: Teams that got shut out are 34-17-3 ATS since 2015.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Chad on Brass Balls Pick:
  “The Minnesota Vikings plus six at Hard Rock bet against the Dallas Cowboys. That is our brass balls bet of the week.” (Chad, 51:40)

• Simon, Wisdom on Trends:
  “That’s how history happens. It’s the ones you don’t see coming that hurt the most.” (Simon, 71:29)

Quick-Hit Sharp vs Square Picks (70:47 – 71:38)

• Simon’s Pick: Rams -6
• Chad’s Picks: Packers (Chad’s choice), Saints (Simon says), Bills (Sharps Square), Vikings (Brass Balls)

Parlay Construction (68:55 – 70:43)

• Underdog Parlay: New Orleans, Cincinnati, Washington, Minnesota, Cleveland, Raiders.
• Favorite Parlay: Rams, Packers, Chiefs, Bills, Steelers.

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |--------------------------------------------|-----------| | Simon’s mood and movie corrections | 03:13 | | Sharp Calls (pro insights rundown) | 07:17 | | Chiefs vs Chargers breakdown | 13:57 | | Bills vs Patriots analysis | 17:50 | | Cardinals vs Texans discussion | 28:14 | | Bengals vs Ravens, Burrow dog stats | 31:29 | | Browns vs Bears (weather, defense talk) | 34:57 | | Rams vs Lions breakdown | 39:13 | | Saints vs Panthers trends | 43:53 | | Packers vs Broncos confidence | 47:45 | | Brass Balls Pick: Vikings vs Cowboys | 51:28 | | End of show parlay/Sharp vs Square | 68:55+ |

Final Thoughts

A loaded, stats-rich episode: Chad and Simon break down sharp-vs-square positions, revealing where big bettors are putting their cash in Week 15. The “Brass Balls” pick—the Vikings as big underdogs—epitomizes the pod’s contrarian, data-driven ethos. Both hosts blend deep trend analysis with candid, everyman sportsbook wisdom, making the show a must-listen for NFL bettors seeking a real edge.

“We're riding a knife's edge all season with some of these teams, right? Like trying to get off the wagon with the Chiefs, the Bills, the Ravens.”
— Chad Millman (71:38)