Sharp or Square: NFL Week 16 Betting Breakdown

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Network: iHeartPodcasts / The Volume
Episode: Sharp NFL Week 16 Bets
Date: December 18, 2025

Episode Overview

Main Theme:
Chad Millman and professional sports bettor Simon Hunter break down NFL Week 16 from a betting perspective, distinguishing between “sharp” (professional) and “square” (public/popular) sides. The episode explores injuries, line moves, and sharp calls, providing listeners with actionable insights for wagering—be it point spreads, moneylines, or contest picks.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Reactions and Recap of Sharp Calls

• Quarterback News & Early Week Developments (04:00)

  • Recent quarterback shakeups (Brady Cook starting for Jets; two news for Dolphins), causing big line swings.
  • Reminder on injury and info volatility: “You lose track of everything when you’re in Vegas...Woke up this morning and like, I couldn’t even figure out what city I was in.” — Simon [04:22]

• Line Movement Reflections

  • Chad laments missing early value on Cincinnati; line moved from +1 to -4.5 after Tua injury news.
  • “Bad miss by me...I don’t know why. I was spooked off by the line.” — Chad [04:43]

2. Sharp vs. Public Positions Across Big Games

• Rams vs. Seahawks (Thursday Night) (06:00, 09:29)

  • Public loves the Rams; “fake sharps” (pros acting like sharps) on Seattle.
  • Chad bullish on Rams, skeptical pros’ love for Seattle: “I’ll walk into the trap if this is one...I think the hype is way too much for backing Sam Darnold in this spot.” — Chad [05:56]
  • Simon adds distraction factor: “Puka (Nacua) is turning into a distraction...It’s just not what the Rams need.” — Simon [11:00]
  • Historical angles: McVay's December/late-season ATS records (28-11 SU in December, 17-3 ATS since 2021), his dominance over Seattle, and evidence Seattle’s home-field edge is gone.

• Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles – Brass Balls Bet of the Week (16:11)

  • Both on the Commanders +6.5/+7 as a sharp divisional dog.
  • Rationale: Eagles overvalued on blowout win, public “hammering” Philly but line not budging thanks to pro resistance.
  • “If I was the general public…and didn’t have a model…why wouldn’t I bet the Eagles here? They looked incredible.” — Chad [17:52]
  • Historical: Jalen Hurts’ ATS struggles late season, particularly in December vs NFC East (1-5 ATS in this spot). Dan Quinn’s track record as a dog also cited.

• Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans (21:23)

  • Mahomes out, line drops from 11.5 to 3/3.5. Pros and public leaning Titans but hosts NOT putting it in their contest.
  • “Under still looks good…Under is 37.5. Like you said, I don’t know how the Chiefs are going to score.” — Chad [22:52]
  • Simon jokes: “Your lack of support on a really ugly dog is shocking to me. The whole Titans voodoo has gotten into your head.” [23:45]

• Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants – Simon Says Pick (27:40)

  • Fade on Vikings as road fav after emotional win; Giants the value side.
  • Emotional letdown September: “Teams...playing in Dallas, then on the road next game…are 0-6 against the spread this season… failing to cover by almost 11 points.” — Chad [28:32]
  • Vikings as dome team in cold, Giants have pass rush advantage.
  • “90–80% of tickets are on the Vikings, but 70% of money is on the Giants.” — Simon [30:51]

• Bills at Browns (34:10)

  • Buffalo -10 on the road; both hosts unexpectedly lean to Buffalo as the side despite initial hesitation.
  • Stat from Evan Abrams: “When Josh Allen plays a defense allowing fewer than 20 points per game, 28-9 ATS in his career...It’s the best mark of any quarterback since ’03.” — Chad [35:31]
  • Browns’ OL/injury issues raised; “I think, you know, Cook might have 13 rushing touchdowns. Josh Allen might have 12…” — Chad [37:50]

• Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (39:10)

  • Jags are a sharp/sneaky side despite public skepticism. Pro money may move line from +3.5 to +2.5.
  • Trends: Teams scoring 48+ points Nov or later are 59-42 ATS next game.
  • “I am confident in this Jaguars team, but for contest play...it has to be three and a half.” — Chad [43:58]

• Las Vegas Raiders +14.5 at Houston Texans (44:09)

  • Classic “buy low, sell high” after a shutout loss.
  • Teams shut out the week before are 6-0 ATS this year.
  • “We’re simply betting this because of the trends and the numbers…” — Chad [44:52]

• Patriots at Ravens (47:32)

  • Pats +3.5 is a play, fading public/Baltimore buzz after a win, despite Lamar Jackson’s stellar record in weeks 15/16.
  • “Variable in this exact spot…tends to get his guys ready to bounce back.” — Chad [48:43]

• Dallas Cowboys vs LA Chargers (51:22)

  • Pros overwhelmingly on Dallas; late week line move support Cowboys.
  • Chad: “It just seems like all the numbers…the pros are right. Right. The pros came in heavy on this one.” [53:07]
  • Trends: Dak strong at home in back-to-back homestands.

• Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (54:22)

  • Both hesitant to take a strong position. Slight nod to Arizona as a dog, but numbers on both sides uninspiring.

• Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (56:42)

  • Panthers a sneaky value as divisional dogs; Bucs on a massive ATS losing streak.
  • “This is the exact spot where we’re supposed to back this Panthers [team].” — Chad [57:15]

• Detroit Lions vs Pittsburgh Steelers (60:26)

  • Simon flips to Lions -6.5 after research, citing Campbell/Goff bounce-back and Tomlin’s record as a big dog (7-10 ATS).
  • “The Lions have not blown a 10-point lead in almost three years…21-0 straight up in those games.” — Simon [61:30]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On fake sharps (sharps acting sharp but are public):
  • “These guys think they’re professionals, but they’re actually frauds...I’ll walk into the trap if this is one.” — Chad (on the Rams-Seahawks) [05:58]
• On betting divisional dogs:
  • “If you want to follow what I call the fake sharps, they’re going to be on the Seahawks…and I think the Rams, it’s going to be the spot.” — Simon [13:17]
• On Jalen Hurts' late-season ATS stats:
  • "He is great, usually against the spread to start the year, but then the public keeps betting him...and the number goes too far." — Chad [18:59]
• On contest line shopping:
  • “The number is coming down. So I’m happy to see the pros are joining me...This is going to be a pros versus Joe’s type of game.” — Simon (Giants/Vikings) [30:51]
• On the market’s overreaction:
  • “My god, if we can avoid this one like Tennessee, I’m happy now.” — Simon (Arizona/Atlanta) [56:35]
• On podcast mission:
  • “This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention.” — Simon [03:34]

Timestamps for Important Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |-----------------------------------------------|------------| | Sharp Calls & QB News Recap | 04:00 | | Rams-Seahawks in-depth + McVay trends | 09:29 | | Commanders-Eagles "Brass Balls Bet" | 16:11 | | Chiefs-Titans & Market Overreaction | 21:23 | | Giants-Vikings (Simon Says) | 27:40 | | Bills at Browns Extended Breakdown | 34:10 | | Jags-Broncos and Regression Talk | 39:10 | | Raiders-Texans "Buy Low" angle | 44:09 | | Patriots-Ravens, Fading Momentum | 47:32 | | Cowboys-Chargers analytic review | 51:22 | | Cardinals-Falcons reluctant leans | 54:22 | | Panthers-Bucs number talk | 56:42 | | Lions-Steelers power ratings flip | 60:26 | | Biggest Bets & Parlays Segment | 70:23 |

Week 16 Consensus & Contest Picks (“Biggest Bets” Recap) [70:23]

• Most confident plays (early in week):
  • Washington Commanders
  • Chicago Bears
  • New England Patriots
  • New York Giants
  • Lean Buffalo Bills
• Moneyline Underdog Parlay: Tennessee, Arizona, New York Giants, New England, Jaguars [71:25]
• Favorites Parlay: Saints, Lions, Cincy, Bears/Buffalo, Dallas [71:51]
• Sharp vs Square Standouts:
  • Chad’s sharp but “square” bet: Bills -10 [72:40]
  • Simon’s “Brass Balls” bet: Washington (+6.5) [16:11]
  • Simon’s sharp underdog call: Tennessee Titans [73:10]

Flow and Tone

• Banter: The duo maintain a joking, but data-driven tone—often teasing each other about their picks or reactions to line movement.
• Self-Reflection: Chad expresses regret for missing early line moves; Simon admits to bias on some teams (e.g., Rams).
• Sharp/Public Dynamics: Constantly weigh the merits of pro vs public action and recognize traps.
• Listener Value: All analytics or trends are used to help listeners gain an edge or avoid common pitfalls.

Final Takeaways

• The hosts maintain a sharp/square framework but always question groupthink—even among professionals.
• Persistently advocate fading overreactions, trusting historically profitable trends (e.g., divisional dogs, fade teams off huge wins/shutouts).
• Encourage contest/DFS players to shop lines, beware injury news, and understand NFL market psychology.

Memorable Close:
“Bullying does work on certain people.” — Chad, after finally buying into a previously doubted side [72:29]

“Feedback is a gift. Till next time. Love you. Hey baby. We gonna be here all day. We’re gonna be here all day baby. I like this kind of party.” — Show outro [73:54]

For more details, subscribe and find Sharp or Square on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, or Spotify.