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SHARP NFL WEEK 16 BETS: Bills-Browns, Chargers-Cowboys, Bucs-Panthers, 49ers-Colts, Patriots-Ravens and more
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- [00:00]
Podcast Announcer
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.
- [00:07]
Doug
And Doug, there's nowhere I wouldn't go to help someone customize and save on car insurance with Liberty Mutual, even if it means playing in a football game.
- [00:14]
Chad Mellon
Boom. 42. You're going down, Doug.
- [00:17]
Ad Read Announcer
Oh yeah, your price on car insurance.
- [00:19]
Doug
When you customize and save is going down.
- [00:21]
Chad Mellon
Hey.
- [00:25]
Simon Hunter
Limu, what are you doing on their team?
- [00:28]
Doug
Only pay for what you need@libertymutual.com Liberty Liberty.
- [00:33]
Chad Mellon
Liberty.
- [00:34]
Simon Hunter
Liberty.
- [00:34]
Doug
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- [01:03]
Ad Read Announcer
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- [01:53]
Doug
Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index. With AI it all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like EFTs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio that's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, llc SEC Registered Advisors Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not investment recommendation or advice. Complete Disclosures available at public.comDisclosures the holidays.
- [03:03]
Chad Mellon
Are already in full swing. The lights are up. You got good people, good food and good vibes. And there to help keep that energy going is straight winter spice cranberry with that crisp cranberry flavor with a smooth winter spice twist. It's the drink that livens up game nights, gift exchanges, or just catching up in the kitchen with a burst of holiday flavor. It's a seasonal favorite, but it's only here for a limited time, so grab it while you can. Sprite Winter Spice Cranberry Sprite. Obey your thirst.
- [03:35]
Simon Hunter
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock bet. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Mellon. I am joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff, Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [03:56]
Chad Mellon
Chad. How we doing, dude?
- [03:58]
Simon Hunter
Big, big quarterback news on Wednesday. I don't know if you saw it. Brady Cook will be the starting quarterback for the New York jets for the second week in a row. Did you think I was talking about tua?
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Chad Mellon
No, because that happened Tuesday.
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Simon Hunter
Interesting.
- [04:18]
Chad Mellon
Lock in, buddy. Gotta lock in.
- [04:20]
Simon Hunter
My week is all screwed up, right? Because I was in Vegas Monday, Tuesday, you fly back all day Wednesday and like, you lose track of everything when you're in Vegas, especially when, like, you're. You're just being bombarded by the bright lights late into the evening. So I don't know what day it was. I woke up this morning and like, I couldn't even figure out what city I was in.
- [04:44]
Chad Mellon
Yeah, I just know because I basically got crushed by a bunch of pro betters because I just couldn't be the man and say, simon says, give me Cincinnati plus one. And now they are minus four and a half. So bad, bad miss by me. And I, I don't know why. I was just. I was spooked off by the line. I couldn't get. I couldn't get why I was moving, why people are hammering Miami. So that's when I'm happy. I put a penny on it at Hard Rock, but obviously hindsight. I think 30 minutes after our show ended, the two news guys.
- [05:13]
Simon Hunter
Is that when it happened?
- [05:14]
Chad Mellon
Yeah. And it moved four points. So yeah, that pretty shocking lineman. Miami plus four and a half now against Cincinnati.
- [05:21]
Simon Hunter
All right, well, we know that one won't be in the contest. This is our Thursday Week 16 episode. We are going to narrow down to our final five now that we've got more information about injury news, line movements, et cetera, et cetera. Subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify. Let's get into this thing. Every week we give out our picks. Every week your fellow professional, Better Simon call to critique. Give us positive affirmation, negative feedback. Whatever the case, it's time to summarize those opinions. Let's do sharp calls.
- [05:59]
Chad Mellon
I have to answer this phone. Once again, we'll start with the the Thursday game. I knew it. I knew that the Los Angeles side was a super public side. I just did not see the love by the professionals. And they're. They're coming on the Seahawks side. So this is my favorite. These guys think they're professionals, but they're actually frauds. Type of game where they're. Yeah, we know we're doing taking Seattle here. This is a fishy line. And we were hammered. And I'm happy with. I'm getting the Rams the dog down. I'll be with the public. I'll walk into the trap if this is one. And yeah, this is a game I don't know if we're gonna talk more about, but tons of love in the pros on the Seahawks and I just do not, do not see what they're seeing. But these games happen, right? It's divisional games. It's really tough to be your divisional opponent two times in a row. So I get their love for Seattle. I just, I think the hype is way too much for backing Sam Darnold in this spot. But that was the first game that really jumped out the Saturday games. I thought it was gonna be all love for Green Bay. Tons of really respected guys I know on the Bears and they flipped me. I'm actually on the Bear side now where I, I wanted to get there. I didn't want to be on Green Bay. Just like there was something I'm missing. But that was a really interesting game and obviously that Commander's game. Tons of love for Washington. We knew that that was going to be a pros versus Joe's and probably keep hammering this Eagle side and that number is not budging. I was hoping we're going to get seven. Like I just said, the professionals, they really like Washington. So that number is going to hold There and moving to the Sunday games, you know, not as much love. I was hoping for my Giants love. I do have some pros with me on that Giant side. It's just not as locked in. Like, say that Washington game is. Which is all professionals on that one side, Tennessee, a game. I'm just not seeing tons of pros love that the number has fallen. So maybe I can lie to myself, say, well, we already missed the best number. Let's not bet it. Anyway, I got some thoughts.
- [07:46]
Simon Hunter
I got some thoughts.
- [07:48]
Chad Mellon
Okay. I'm just. I'm not there. You were right about Dallas. The pros love Dallas. Another game I think I blind spot to and been talking to a little bit. It's just, I can't believe it that there are good trends and numbers, underlying numbers for Dallas here in the spot. But I still can't believe they want to fade Herbert. I mean, this is what, three straight weeks of fading. This guy's a dog. So very unique spot. And, you know, again, we talked a little bit about. I kind of love Pittsburgh. Every pro I've talked, he was all over the line. So I understand now why that line's been bent up so heavily. It feels like every pro I know is on that side. On the flip side, most public people I've talked to, it feels like they're on the Pittsburgh side. So that's a really unique one. And you know, the final two games we talked about, you know, we both love New England. Every pro I've talked to, for the most part, loves it. There are some pros on the Ravens, right? This is a unique spot of a team that's been there before in the Ravens for the veteran quarter team that has not been there before and that just blew a 21 point lead. So I get it. Maybe I'm leaking a little bit on the Patriots, but I still think the number is inflated. And the Ravens are an overrated team. In the last one, we talked a little bit about it. We like the. We like the 49ers. All the pros I've talked to for most part, like the Colts. But honestly, even if we're walking to a trap there, Chad, I still think it's a good spot for this 49ers team. I just. I don't know how the Colts offense keeps up with this 49ers offense, which is just fully healthy right now. And they're. They're a machine. When they got all their guys back, you see with Purdy, they're just unstoppable. So really fun games to break down this week and you know, a lot of prime time games to talk about. It wasn't so much the 1PMS or 4PMs it was really felt like all the primetime games the pros are hitting. So really fun week.
- [09:26]
Simon Hunter
All right, let's get into it. Let's start to break them down first before we get into the games. Quick announcement. We saw there was an issue seeing the overall leaderboard for the Sharp or square pro football pick them contest. The free contest@sharter square.the volume.com this has been fixed. So here is the announcement of the season. Long standing leaders right now three players are at the top with a perfect 100 start. Congrats to Jack Mack, DM6 13 shooter neuter. There are still seven long weeks left, so it's anybody's game. All right, I, I do want to talk about the Rams in Seattle just for a minute. This line has moved. It flipped from Seattle's a one point underdog to now Seattle is a one and a half point favorite. Look, Puka, Puka, Puka, Puka, Puka. What are you doing? Two weeks ago it was Puka live streaming from the locker room, which is a no, no for the Rams. And then he's getting yelled at by veteran players. This week it's Puka going on a another live stream as a guest with some popular streamers saying NFL refs are the worst. They just want to get on tv. They're just lawyers who want to tell their friends, hey, check this out. I'm going to call a pass interference and I'm going to be on tv. What. Why is, why is Puka turning into a distraction? What is, what is he doing?
- [11:11]
Chad Mellon
I mean the simpler version of it, and this is a guy that when you go to college at Utah and, and now he's at la and he was a quiet, shy little boy, but he's come out and he's come out of his closet. He's 24 now, so he's young, dumb, in LA and the second best, third best receiver in football right now, stat wise, so his head can't get any bigger. I mean this guy, he's in that mode where he. Everything he thinks, everything he says he thinks is the right truth. Where I think the dumbest thing I saw, he said vegetables give you inflation. Which could be true, but just wait, wait.
- [11:46]
Simon Hunter
Inflation or inflammation, whatever it was, I.
- [11:50]
Chad Mellon
Don'T know, I heard, I was just like, I don't know what Puka's talking about. I'm like you, I'm Like, I wish he got off these shows and just, you know, listen to his head coach who told him these guys can't come to the facility. Like he didn't want him to do those interviews with those kids on their live stream. And you know, there's just nothing to gain from other than his, you know, up, up in the level of his notoriety on that community of like, you know, non sports fans. Right. These are video game people, I'm assuming, who watch these streamers. So maybe that's his idea, right? Get a new fan bases for himself. But it's a distraction. Like you said, the Rams don't need. Do I think it affected the spread? No, I think the spread was affected by devonte Adams injury. But yeah, not the best start for the Rams where they had that drama and then their flight was delayed, I believe, getting into Seattle. So a lot of negatives to start for the, the Rams in this matchup. Chad, I agree with you on that.
- [12:38]
Simon Hunter
But it doesn't change your opinion.
- [12:41]
Chad Mellon
No, this just feels like again, it's, it's all about picking your spots. But like I'm not going to force this one to our contest, obviously, but it just feels like a little overreaction to the Seattle thing where it feels like the most pros I've talked to, they. They think they have to beat Seattle here and that this is a really tough spot for the Rams to be backing them. And you know, my mindset is it doesn't, doesn't this line just seem a little fishy to you? I, I just can't get over where. I don't know, is Seattle really a one and a half point favorite? But I told you, I'm too biased, I think with this Rams team and.
- [13:18]
Simon Hunter
Well, you love the Rams all season and you've had them higher rated than anybody else all season. So now they're living up to your rating. And the Seahawks, look, they're. They haven't looked good. Right. Like Sam Darnold, they. They nearly lost to a grandfather, literally.
- [13:34]
Chad Mellon
Which again, and it's another reason I back them because it's like those are the things we like. We like backing the teams that look bad that we know are really good. Facing a team that, you know, might have had their best game of the season. That was an incredible comeback by the Rams in a really tough spot on a short week now. But I keep going back to all these McVeigh stats. That's what like, I keep. I can't get over how incredible McVeigh has been this late in the year. And you know, I can read it to people again if they want to hear it. The McVeigh 28 and 11 straight up 2711 in the month of December. In his career against the spread since 2021, he's 173 against the spread in the month of December. So, you know, we already know he owns the Seahawks. Like, he just. I think this year they didn't cover. We, we definitely bet that the Rams, I believe, were two and a half point favorites. They were up 14, I believe, in the, in the fourth quarter and the Seahawks backdoored it. They. They lost by two. So they covered the number of they lost by two in a game that they. I just felt like the Rams were way better. So like I said, if you, if you want to follow what I call the fake sharps, they're going to be on the Seahawks this week and I think the Rams, it's going to be the spot. So I'm interested to see where this one goes. Like I said, it's. It's a game where maybe I am too close to this Rams team. I love them too much, but I just can't believe people are hammering Sam Darnold as a favorite in this divisional game. And like I told you, Chad, there's a lot of really interesting stats about backing McVeigh in this type of spot and he actually does really well in short weeks. On the flip side, you know, this Seahawks team, since they, since they faced the Rams, it's obviously been different coaches, different quarterbacks. They're owing three in this spot of facing the Rams on a short week where the Rams tend to play really well in their. And the biggest one that jumped out to me is I talked to you about the home field advantage for the Seahawks. That's been irrelevant since like 2015. They actually have a losing record at home and against the spread at home and this exact spot. So a short week that's facing a divisional opponent that's above.500, they're 0 and 6 in this spot. Seattle Seahawks since 2020. So again, it's even with their head coach. He's been there. He's 0 and 2 in this spot. So it's not a good spot historically for Seattle. And on the flip side, like I said, McVay, he dominates these late season. He's just such a prepared coach. And you know, another distraction could be had a baby. I love that kind of stuff. Like that's. Those are my favorite things where coaches or players have babies and I bet on them anytime. Touchdowns, obviously I can't do that, McVeigh, but I will be taking his side here. But like I said, it's a game that luckily we can't put in a contest because I'm confident in it. But I think I might be blinded to my love of this Rams team.
- [16:11]
Simon Hunter
All right, that's enough. On a Thursday night game that 10 people are going to get to hear the show and then actually bet on Washington at Philadelphia. We talked about this on Tuesday. Saturday night, six and a half point underdogs, the Washington Commanders are going to be our brass balls bet of the week, presented by Hard Rock Bet.
- [16:42]
Chad Mellon
You know what it takes? It takes brass balls.
- [16:47]
Simon Hunter
Look, I'm, I'm kind of taking your lead on this because you know the Eagles as well as anybody and you were leaning commanders on Tuesday. And when we talked about it before we came on the show, we, I, I presented three games that I could have thought could be brass balls contenders and the only one that we felt really comfortable with was Washington. Lane Johnson's still out. I think that matters. The commanders have just been better with Marcus Mariota, which we've been saying for the past few weeks. Jalen Carter will still be out. I think that impacts how the Eagles can defend against a mobile quarterback. And talk about wanting to be in a spot where you're fading a team. We want to fade the team that just blew somebody out. And all of a sudden people think the Eagles are fixed when we're not quite convinced the Eagles are fixed. So at six and a half, this just feels a little bit inflated. As you noted in Sharp calls, wise guys are on this one as well. The real wise guys, not the fake wise guys.
- [17:52]
Chad Mellon
It's true, though. It's, it feels like inflated line. I had this model at 4 and it's not shocking though. If I was the general public and didn't have a model or know much about it, why wouldn't I bet the Eagles here, right? They looked incredible. They look like they got things right. And we've talked about they're a team that if they can figure out that offense, why would they not be the number two or number three best team nfc? So this is obviously two teams that are going totally different directions. The commanders, like we've said, they're, they're shut down their star quarterback, you know, how motivated would they be, blah, blah, blah. I think that's why the public is just coming in so heavier. I don't know about you, but most books I've looked at or talked to, it's like 80% to 90% of all the money. All the bets are coming on this Eagles team.
- [18:34]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, that's why it's so surprising to me it hasn't moved to seven. That's clearly sort of resistance coming from the professionals.
- [18:41]
Chad Mellon
Yeah, it could be part of it. It's also, I think the books too are just like they, they're like what we're thinking here is just who, who are the Eagles to be catching seven against a divisional opponent like this, where.
- [18:52]
Simon Hunter
Who are the super bowl champions to be catching seven. But I get it. Like they haven't looked like the super bowl champions at all.
- [18:59]
Chad Mellon
No, it's like it's the. They haven't had a horrible season like the Chiefs have had, but it's been close to it. Like they've, it's could have. It could have fallen apart, a bunch of different spots here. So this is just a bet for the egos to prove it to me. Right. And you know, we always talk about the numbers with Hertz. There's some real numbers here to fade hurts, especially when it comes to this late in the season, in December, he is great, usually against the spread to start the year, but then the public keeps betting him falling more in love with him and the number goes too far. And we've seen that now through his early career because the Eagles obviously, every year he's been a starter, he's made the playoffs. Right. And he's kind of been in that spot where, you know, not the last two years or not last year, but the year before, they totally fell off. So that's why these numbers are skewed a little bit, his December's numbers, but these ones just popped out to me. So December later hurts 5 and 7 against the spread. When he faces the NFC east, he's one of five in his career in the month of December against the spread. So we talked about it. He just gets inflated. In our division, I mean Eagles division, historically, it's kind of been a bottom feeding division. Right. There's usually two teams really good. The other two are just absolutely terrible. And it's been like that for his whole career these last four or five years for Hertz. So even against bad teams in his division in December, he's struggled. It's been very bizarre. And another stat I really loved was the Eagles were a double digit favorite last week. Hertz, for some reason he's horrible at games following being a double digit favorite. So when he's a double digit favorite, Hurts. He's 3 and 6 against the spread in this following game. It just shows. They usually blow teams out, live up to it in the following game, they have a letdown game. So I've seen that time and time again. And on the flip side, Dan Quinn, you know, give him a ton of grief. I just don't think he's that good of a head coach. But as a dog, he's been great, especially covering seven to four against the spread and this exact spot, three and one in his own division. So, you know, we like Dan Quinn. We like the numbers when he's back in his own division as a dog. It's just when he's a favorite. I really couldn't get over how much overrated he was. So we talked. We knew Washington was coming back down to earth this year, Felix. They have, but they feel like the. The public has totally left them for dead and happened last week they were hammering the Giants team. Like you just said, that number didn't budge last week. It's happening once again. The public is hammering the opposite side of the commander side and it's not budged. So for both of us, I think we'd feel much better. We wake up Saturday and this number's five and a half because it's like, okay, at least some real professional money is coming and we both have the best number. But even this gets the seven, I'm still going to back this Washington team come Saturday.
- [21:24]
Simon Hunter
All right, Washington Commanders brass balls better the week. Look, talk about teams that as the season goes on historically are bigger and bigger favorites and the quarterback ends up not being as good against the spread because of it. That has been the Kansas city chiefs since 2018. Now Patrick Mahomes is out. Kansas City has gone from ostensibly eleven and a half when he was playing against Tennessee Titans to four and a half, down to three and a half. Now it's down to three in the contest. It's currently three and a half. So I want to have this conversation thinking about the three and a half and the three. I think there are so many issues for the Chiefs right now beyond Mahomes. Right. They are missing so many offensive linemen and we were on the Chiefs last week. They lost that game because they couldn't protect Mahomes, obviously. But they're also down Hollywood Brown this week. Rasheed Rice, will he play again? Will he play? Coming off the concussion, we don't know. They're already having a hard time getting any kind of explosive runs. We know the Titans have been covering being more competitive. I mean, all of a sudden the Titans look attractive to me.
- [22:51]
Chad Mellon
So you know what to do people. Hammer the Kansas City Chiefs. I know what you want from I'm not, I'm not going to let us put in the contest regardless. Maybe if it was four and a half Tennessee, which was to me that was where the Sharps really made their statement. That was the Sharp number. But you are betting into a bad number and what feels like a bad spot. The under still looks good. Under is 37 and a half. Like you just said, I don't know how the Chiefs are going to score. I still don't know how Tennessee is going to score. This is still a spag defense that as bad as the Chiefs have been. The defense has been pretty good, right? It's really the offense I've disappointed this season for this Chiefs team. So I get where you're coming from, Chad. You're with all the pros. They're all over it. I think the public are with you too. Like I don't see the public betting minshew as a favorite in this spot. So I don't know what to do with this one. I'm hope I'm happy just to avoid it if I can.
- [23:38]
Simon Hunter
Maybe a little taste of the Titans on the money line.
- [23:42]
Chad Mellon
Do your thing, whatever you want to do.
- [23:45]
Simon Hunter
Well, your lack of support on like a really ugly dog is shocking to me. The whole Titans Titans voodoo has gotten into your head. It's totally in your head right now.
- [24:00]
Chad Mellon
I just, I don't want to be there. I honestly don't want to be there with them. Like last week, not watching a second of their game was very, very nice. It was enjoyable.
- [24:06]
Simon Hunter
It was enjoyable, right?
- [24:07]
Chad Mellon
Yeah.
- [24:08]
Simon Hunter
To think that they just didn't exist was people pleasure.
- [24:12]
Doug
Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index. With AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like EFTs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, llc SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures Limu.
- [25:22]
Chad Mellon
Gamu and Doug Here we have the Limu Emu in its natural habitat helping people customize their car insurance and save hundreds with Liberty Mutual. Fascinating. It's accompanied by his natural ally, Doug.
- [25:39]
Doug
Limu is that guy with the binoculars watching us.
- [25:42]
Chad Mellon
Cut the camera.
- [25:43]
Doug
They see us Only pay for what you need@liberty mutual.com Liberty Liberty Liberty Liberty Savings Ferry Unwritten by Liberty Mutual Insurance Company and affiliates Excludes Massachusetts how are USDA staff cuts and budget challenges affecting farmers?
- [25:55]
Chad Mellon
My dad and I both have a CSP contract but staff can't check the fields to approve them for us to get paid. We're going through a very bad economic time. If we don't have the funds to support our conservation practices, we're going to see a major drop off in producers. I don't know guys, this is scary. I got a young family, a young business and have no idea what's going to happen.
- [26:17]
Doug
Protect conservation funding and staff that supports farmers paid for by Invest in Our.
- [26:21]
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- [27:41]
Simon Hunter
-3 at the New York Giants betting the Giants +3 with Simon says I hope everyone is better because this line is going to move to two and a half because it looks like the money is coming in on the Giants again. I don't think there are metrics to make us feel better about this one. It's really about fading a quarterback who until two weeks ago people were trying to figure out what their option was going to be next year in Minnesota to replace JJ McCarthy and how bad they must feel that they don't have Sam Darnold, that they didn't have Daniel Jones, that they no longer had Kirk Cousins. And then the guy beats up on two bad defenses in the Commanders and the Cowboys and all of a sudden he's a three point road favorite. That's what we're fading here and that's why it's. Simon says and that's why we bet it and that's why it'll be in the contest.
- [28:32]
Chad Mellon
Yeah, like you just, you nailed it. It's, it's such a nice spot to fade the Vikings and we actually do have data backing it up that you know, the Vikings in such an emotional spot. That, which that really was the Vikings playing in Dallas on Sunday night last week. It's been unique this season. So teams basically playing in Dallas, then on the road the next game after playing Dallas, their own six against the spread this season. And you can be like, okay, that's not that big of a deal. That's kind of just this season in a nutshell. But it really does feel like it kind of tends to that game. Right. That was such an emotional win. And you go back through a lot of Dallas games this year. They all, they most for the most part have been really close, high emotional games for a lot of these teams. So it makes sense there are letdowns in the following games. And you know the, the ones that dropped out, jumped out to me is just this season, teams that play in Dallas and then go on the road the next game, they're failing to cover by almost 11 points per game. And that next game, like that's not a small margin. That's a really big gap that shows there is a letdown. And you know, the Vikings, I had a couple reach out to me. Is there really anything to dive into about the Vikings being an indoor team now, going to play outdoors in the cold? You shake your head. There actually is Chad. Like they're not a outdoor type of team. In December or Later, they are 6 and 11 against the spread, and they've been covering by failing to cover by five points per game in those exact spots. So it does prove out that they're not a cold weather type of team. Right. They are a dome team. And now they're going outside to play a Giants team that, you know, they've been playing in the elements. They're used to it. So that is something. Another part you can take away for this Giants team. But at the end of the day, my biggest thing I'm taking away from is just the matchup. I think JJ is going to struggle with this type of defense the Giants have, which is a very fast front that can give him problems because we've seen that these, those teams you just talked about, they don't have any pass rush to get after them. And JJ looked so comfortable passing against those type of teams because he had no pressure in his face. We've seen him struggle this year. It's when he has to move outside the pocket, the plays break down. That's when JJ struggles. So I'm back in the Giants here, and like you said, it's about the number. The number is coming down. So I'm happy to see the pros are joining me on it. It's a big split game. So the public. I think it's like 90, 80 of the tickets right now are on the Minnesota Vikings, but 70% of the money is coming in on the Giants. So that just shows this is going to be a pros versus Joe's type of game. So I am shocked to see it's coming down, but not shocked to see the pros line up on this one. Just feels like a very nice spot to back this Giants team.
- [30:51]
Simon Hunter
Well, look, the one thing we got to consider is that it's two and a half in the contest. So do we still want to play it if it's two and a half in the contest? Because that's what it's going to be.
- [31:02]
Chad Mellon
Yeah, I mean, it's. It's tough. Like I. I let that scare me last week with the Saints and we ate it on that one. So it's gonna. It's gonna be a tough choice to make.
- [31:10]
Simon Hunter
I can't believe that the Minnesota Vikings are an indoor team. It just disappoints me. I think what the Bills are doing.
- [31:17]
Chad Mellon
Chad, that might be your future buddy.
- [31:19]
Simon Hunter
I know. That's what I was gonna say. Like, what the Bills are doing is amazing. They're built, they're leaning into their attitude. And I'm seeing all this stuff about the Bears and whether they're building in the suburbs or now they're thinking Gary, Indiana. Let me tell you something. I'm already upset that the Bills might build a dome stadium just so Chicago can get a Super Bowl. I get it. I get it. But, like, you don't understand how much of a part of the personality of being a Bears fan and sitting outside and being an outdoor team and being built for December and what this and what Caleb Williams calls ball weather, that's an advantage. And like, all of a sudden, if the Bills. If the Bears build a dome, three of the four teams in their division now have domes, and only Green Bay won't. It actually, it. It's so disappointing to me. I. I can't believe it. And let's not even start about Indiana. Like, obviously, I went to Indiana University. I have so many friends who are from Indiana in college, some of them from, like, northwest Indiana, like, you know, outside, like, Munster, Indiana and whatever, and they would live closer to Chicago than you do, and they try to claim that they're from Chicago. I'm like, dude, you're from Indiana. So if the Bears go to Indiana, I am just going to be. They're losing all their character. You build a dome stadium in Indiana, you might as well be the Colts.
- [32:46]
Chad Mellon
Now, it would be not only a. Embarrassing as an organization, but like you said, that's such a part of the city, the culture, just the whole area being a Bear weather, just like. Like you. Like when I thought there was even a chance of the Bills, but in a dome stadium, I literally got sick to my stomach. I feel the same way thinking about the Bears, and it just. It's the underlying problem of this country. At the end of the day, it's all about the money.
- [33:10]
Simon Hunter
All about money.
- [33:12]
Chad Mellon
I hate.
- [33:13]
Simon Hunter
So upsetting. Yeah, it's so there's no culture left. There's no character left. Character is the person you put on the dollar bill. It's just upsetting. I was going to talk about the jets, but I don't even want to. There's nothing to say.
- [33:28]
Chad Mellon
No, I'm. Yeah, like, I'm still on the jets, but I'm with you. It's like a bet that I feel like I have to make, but everyone knows my position. I'm all in on shuck. I've basically hit up every family member of my family and being like, hey, if this guy hits, I'll buy you something nice. Coming in January, like, that's how all in I am just because I want to get as much good vibes I can behind this kid. And I think social media is coming a long way. I rarely saw a post about him. Now it feels like every day I'm seeing stuff pop up of these like, you know, YouTube commentators or whatever. Just talking about how good he's looked and how, you know, like I've talked about they he came and he won two straight divisional games on a Saints team that was just left for dead. So the, the shuck hype, I don't need to keep hyping up anymore. It's. It's going global now, Chad. We're getting there. It's global.
- [34:10]
Simon Hunter
Buffalo, Cleveland, back in the day. Look, we auto played Cleveland at home. They're a 10 point underdog. Even a few weeks ago against the Titans, we would have not hesitated on this one. But then you made all these points about how bad the defense has been playing. The way they looked against the Titans at home. They've got an offensive line that is decimated. So now they've got a quarterback. I don't know how they're going to score enough points. Like if, if Buffalo scores a touchdown and two field goals, they win this game. And it worries me betting on this offense to try to find a way to cover the back door when I don't know if they're going to be able to.
- [34:50]
Chad Mellon
So let's lose money on the Bears then. I mean not Bears. The Bills then. Chad. That's the move. The move is for us to back the Bills. We know we knew there's something off with this line because we should love it. And I'm like you like as soon as I saw this one, it's like what am I missing here? And a game that obviously I want to dive in the numbers on just because when you, when you do think of Josh Allen, this spot, I, I remember the back of my thinking well, isn't this the type of team that Josh Allen does beat up on? Because he wasn't. He wouldn't overlook such a great defense like this, especially a defense with Miles Garrett and shout out to our guy, Evan Abrams. He had some amazing stats about this exact spot. So when Josh Allen plays a defense that is allowing less than 20 points per game. Allen in his career, 28, nine against the spread.
- [35:32]
Simon Hunter
No. Yeah.
- [35:34]
Chad Mellon
And when he's facing a team that allows more than 28 points per game, Josh Allen's 8 and 11 in his career against the spread. So how bizarre is that? He doesn't cover against teams that give up a ton of points, but teams that are very stingy defensively. He is unbelievable against them.
- [35:50]
Simon Hunter
That's crazy.
- [35:51]
Chad Mellon
It's the best mark of any quarterback since 03. So, like it's a huge outlier. But we always talk about Josh Allens, that guy where it's like, you find this type of stats, lean into it. I'm not going to fight it here. Like, I wanted to be on the Browns, but once I saw that stat, it's like, okay, he tends to show up. And even more. There are even more crazy numbers. So since 2010, the Bills have been listed against the Browns five meetings. They're 5, 0 straight up in those games, winning by more than seven. The, you know, the Browns are a big home dog. So, you know, we've seen home dogs this year covering, right. I think they're 11 and 6 against the spread, these big home dogs. So it's like, okay, maybe we need to lean into it and just blindly bet the home dog. Which is what me and Chad usually want to do. But when I saw those Josh Allen numbers, it's like, okay, this guy blows up these really bad teams. And you know, is there a letdown after playing New England? No. Josh Allen on the road after facing New England patriots, he is 10 and 5 against the spread against outside divisional opponents. So plays divisional teams. You think there'd be a let down the following game? There isn't. He's 10 and 5 against the spread in those exact games, covering by almost four points per game. So a lot of just underlying numbers that like us and we already talked like the Bills and the one we already talked about, the biggest one that jumped out to me is the Bills top three, top two, whatever you want to put them as best running team in football. This Browns team has struggled against their run these last couple weeks. And that's what really jumped out to me is that was what they were so dominant at. They were so great against the run. And their secondary we talked about is really good. So it was like, okay, that's why their Browns are stealing these games. Early in the year, teams kind of run against them. They had to pass. And that's what the Browns wanted you to do because they're going to get you to turn the ball over. So looking at this matchup, I think, you know, Cook might have 13 rushing touchdowns, Josh Allen have 12 rushing touchdowns. It's like this is the juggernaut of a rushing team. They just, once they get to the red area, the red zone, they just score rushing touchdowns and the Browns have struggled in that exact spot. So it feels like this is actually a Bills. I can't believe it. Bills minus 10.
- [37:50]
Simon Hunter
I'm shocked.
- [37:51]
Chad Mellon
I know.
- [37:52]
Simon Hunter
I'm shocked only because I'm happy about it because I didn't want to bet the Browns even.
- [37:58]
Chad Mellon
And even if we lose, at least we'll be like, well, at least we lost on Josh Allen. I don't know. Right. No, no, Sanders. I mean, I can't do it.
- [38:04]
Simon Hunter
I can't. I think I. That's why I said historically this would have been an autoplay and we haven't done it and there's something that's holding us back and I think you just nailed it.
- [38:16]
Chad Mellon
So that 289 stat's crazy.
- [38:19]
Simon Hunter
I kind, I. I kind of like the idea of having the Bills as a big favorite on the road against the Browns in the contest for us. It feels very contrarian.
- [38:28]
Chad Mellon
Yeah, I mean it'll be ten and a half, but I wouldn't mind having that discussion Sunday morning. I bet it as soon as I saw those numbers it's like, all right, I'll take a position as because Hard rock, there's only one other book at the 10, so if you want the 10, unfortunately for you, if you don't have a Hard Rock, you're probably not going to find it. Most other books have already moved at ten and a half, so it'll be interesting if the pros do bet it down. I just think, I don't know how many pros are gonna be taking big stands here with Shador Sanders in this defense that might have given up on the season.
- [38:52]
Simon Hunter
Yep, Jacksonville plus three at Denver. No team in the NFL has been luckier than one of the teams playing in this contest. Simon, which team has been the luckiest team?
- [39:10]
Chad Mellon
I mean, I know I want to say Jags, but Denver feel like Denver's been pretty lucky.
- [39:15]
Simon Hunter
Denver Broncos Denver Broncos were losing that game against the Packers. If Micah Parsons doesn't go out, if their offensive line talent doesn't go out, if Christian Watson doesn't go out, teams that are on an 11 game winning streak, 14:36 and two against spread in the following game. After the 11th game, all the talk about Liam cone and Trevor Lawrence to me, don't forget and I've said this for the past four weeks, the difference in this offense has been Jacoby Myers giving them that possession type receiver who can run the routes across the field like that's the guy that has been missing. I'm a little nervous back in a Trevor Lawrence that coming off of a career game when the vibes are so good on the road in altitude against this defense. But it's a big number for a game in a team that against the Broncos has been winning those one score games in the way they lost them. There's got to be some regression coming. Yeah.
- [40:19]
Chad Mellon
And I couldn't believe that I liked even like the Jaguars were most pros I've talked to, they like Denver, they're just avoiding this game. I think it's what the public sentiment is, right? It's how can you trust Trevor Lawrence on the road, possibly in the cold in this spot against a Denver's defense that what do they have 58 sacks this season? They've been absolutely dominant defense obviously. And you know Bo Nix, that was an incredible game. Like you said that there is a world where maybe yes, Green Bay does win it, but Bo Nicks playing that way, they're going to be a really tough team to beat. When he's playing at that type of level, right. He's just so good moving outside the pocket and throwing the ball downfield. But we've seen him dirt plenty of balls into the grass, right. We've seen it when those, those outside the pocket rollouts are not hitting. And to me the biggest difference here is what I've talked about. Like I feel like the Jags have a legit run game and on the flip side, Denver, you know, Harvey's tried his best but you know, they lose. J.K. dobbins, the run game has not been the same to me for this Denver's team and you know, Jaguars quietly had one of the best defenses in all football. I don't believe they've given up even a hundred yard carrier this season. Like teams have not been able to run the ball against this Jags team, which makes sense, right? They've had tons of years here drafted the top of the draft. They've just been drafting D lineman and it's worked out like they are really stout against the run. And you know, looking at all the trends and everything like that, the first one I want to go to is how is Bo Nix off that type of game? You know a game where he throws three touchdowns, no interceptions. He looks so incredible. It's very small sample, right? He's had a very small NFL career. He's 3 and 4 straight up against the spread in the following game after that type of performance. Okay. Not much to take away from it. I just wanted to give that out there what he's like after having such an Incredible performance. The Jags, on the flip side, they've been really impressive with Trevor Lawrence off of those type of wins. Doesn't matter who that coach is. In his whole career, he's been great when you back him after those type of wins and just going through the numbers when he goes off a win that his team wins by more than 10 points or more in his career, the following game, he's 104 against the spread. Trevor Lawrence, which, again, small sample, that was really impressive to me. The biggest one too, is the fact they scored 48 points. This Jaguars team, it's like, okay, that's an insane amount of points. You expect teams that naturally have letdowns after those type of games since 2000. Teams that score 48 points in the previous game, November or later, 59, 42 against the spread. So.
- [42:39]
Simon Hunter
Oh, wow.
- [42:40]
Chad Mellon
Yeah, a shockingly autoplay type of spot for these type of teams where it just shows maybe early in the year, it's kind of fluky. November or later, this is who you are. Like your offense doesn't matter. If you're playing the shitty teams, you're legit. Like, you. You put up those type of numbers where they have that much film on you. It's really impressive. We've been, you know, beating the bush how impressive we've been with Liam Cohen. But it's really a Trevor Lawrence stat. Like the fact that he. These last couple weeks. I know it's not great teams, but he's been playing really good ball. So, you know, I might be stepping right into a chat. I know that I'm back in Trevor Lawrence on the road here against a really great Denver defense. But I'm interested to see how this Denver team does. I do think this Jaguar team, just by the general public too, is being underrated. I mean, Puka. Speaking of Puka, I saw a clip of him, another clip of him saying, who's the biggest flaw flawed team in the afc? First team popped up, second in Jaguars. He's like, they are frauds. They're gonna get rolled in round one. So not even the general public thinks the Jags are frauds. They're his own peers in the league. Do not believe in this Jaguars team. So, you know, interesting number. I thought we were. I thought today we'd have three and a half because I thought the pros would come in heavy on this Denver team. It's either them and dip on their toes a little bit on Denver. They've been avoiding it. So this number is not bud. So I. I am confident this Jaguars Team. But for contest play for us, I would have two and a half. It has. Yeah, it has to be three and a half.
- [43:59]
Simon Hunter
Well, the contest, it is three and a half.
- [44:01]
Chad Mellon
So I would. I'd lock that in now and just in case, because I. I'm issue what the pros do for us. I could see this being two and a half by kickoff. I do see professional money coming on this Jaguars team.
- [44:10]
Simon Hunter
Las Vegas Raiders are minus our plus 14 against the Houston Texans. Simon, this is the buy low sell high spot of the year.
- [44:24]
Chad Mellon
Oh, my God.
- [44:25]
Simon Hunter
Okay, what do we do when a team gets shut out? What do we do the next week?
- [44:30]
Chad Mellon
I know what I do. I don't know what you do. What do you do?
- [44:32]
Simon Hunter
We bet on the team that got shut out.
- [44:34]
Chad Mellon
Good, man.
- [44:36]
Simon Hunter
So the Las Vegas Raiders at plus 14 and a half in the contest. We got to put them in.
- [44:42]
Chad Mellon
I don't know. If we can't find a fifth one, we can do it. But it's. We're simply betting this because of the trends in the numbers. And just.
- [44:49]
Simon Hunter
I got news for you, buddy. We're not going to find a fifth one.
- [44:53]
Chad Mellon
I don't know. We might. That I have games I like. I'm just lukewarm on them right now because it's just. It's such funky lines. We just. I feel like this is the most threes we've had all season. Like there's just six games. We're just. There's hanging threes and it's like. I just don't know what to do with them. But this game here, like you said, the, the trends, obviously they love this Raiders team. Like you already gave out that one. They got shut out the previous week before this season. Team got shut out the week before 6, 0 against the spread. You know, it's a great lazy stat like we talk about. We love those type of stats and the team that fits that description. This week, it's the Raiders in Cincinnati. And one team's lines move three points. The Raiders line has moved the other way for three points, right? I think it was 11 or 11 and a half. Now it is 14, 14 and a half. And it's a unique spot, right? This Texans team, like you said, they are a juggernaut. Their last loss was a game we bet them on, right? The game they should have won against Denver and CJ got knocked out of. Since then, they've won six straight. And since CJ has come back, I mean, last week, that was to me, CJ's best game this season. That looked like CJ from rookie year. Just incredibly disciplined downfield throws right on target, just in total, total unison. And you know the underlying numbers here. Let's dive into it. Six game win streak for Texans teams is the exact spot. They're 11 and 16 against the spread since 2003 when they are double digit favorites in this exact spot they are 2 and 7 against the spread. So a very unique rare spot where like Chad just said, the numbers, they're telling you you're supposed to back the Raiders here and I can't believe we're going to do it. I can't believe I'm agreeing with you. But I bet the Raiders I've taken the numbers and it doesn't matter to me if it's Kenny Pickett. I know you look horrible against Eagles obviously last week. But even as bad as he looked, him and Geno Smith, there truly is no difference. Like it really there is not. So we'll see who the quarterback is, Chad, and maybe that will dictate our decision. But I have no problem locking this in at 14 and a half. And if it is Geno and it drops down to 13 or 12 at least we have good value. We can lie to ourselves. We have to keep them in there. But I'm just, I'm just scared because I just don't trust this Raiders team right now. Just, I think I saw some crazy stat. They had been shut out three times in the previous like 40 years. They've been shut out twice this season. So it's like, it's just all negative. And you know, we talk all the time. One bad GM eight years ago can seek your organization for the next 20 years. We are living it with Madoc and Gruden. Just TV figures brought into an organization that just derailed and train wrecked this team in so many different ways. So yeah, it's, it's bad, bad right now for this Raiders team.
- [47:33]
Simon Hunter
Go Raiders. Plus 14 and a half New England. This was Chad's choice. The money's moving it in the direction of the Patriots. It was three. It's now two and a half. We can get it three and a half in the contest so we might want to lock that in as well. We're bouncing on a Mike Vrabel, but we're betting on a Mike Vrabel. Bounce back here. I know there's, there's trends that say the Ravens are getting a little bit better and you could look at what happened this past weekend in a big win against the Bengals and say Lamar Jackson started to look A little bit more comfortable. Obviously they've got to win out in order to keep up with the Steelers and then beat the Steelers in the final week of the season to make the playoffs.
- [48:12]
Chad Mellon
And.
- [48:12]
Simon Hunter
But. And you can make all the cases about how bad the quarterbacks have been that the Patriots have played and they just played a MVP candidate and blew up a blue or blew a 21 point lead. So now they're going on the road to Baltimore. Tough spot to play. But the money's moving the the line in the favor of the Patriots and I think that's why we're playing them.
- [48:43]
Chad Mellon
Yeah. And like you said, it's the only thing that scares me about this spot is just our bias to Lamar Jackson because it's there. We've had what, five, six years of him in this exact spot where he dominates and that's what makes him so special and unique. Like he is another quarterback. Like I Talked about that McVeigh stat about being in December, how dominate is Lamar is the same guy like Lamar in his career weeks 15 and 16, 16 0, straight up in his career. He's never lost in these two weeks. So that just shows why he's been the MVP multiple times and why, you know, I love on the guy for his playoff letdowns. Because it's like this. It's like, dude, how are you so dominant in one of the toughest months and then just lay eggs come January? So the data I tried to dive into finding some nuggets to give me some hope on this Patriots team. It is hard because it's. Well, we've talked about, right. It's a new young team. May has not been in this scenario. Right. He's not played legit playoff games and that that last game felt like the first legit playoff game. He played great in the first half. Totally in his own head. No showed us in the second half. Right. He just was totally out of rhythm. Never got into a rhythm that second half. And he got lucky. Trevion Henderson saved, kind of saved the day, right? Had a couple huge runs that kept him in the game. But Drake on third down, I don't know about you, but watch that Bills game. I wanted to be passing on third downs. I was like, he's not going to complete these. This kid is not ready for this moment. This is going to be the ultimate test for him. And it really, to me, it's not so much a bet on him, it's really a bet on variable which we've been talking about all season. Anytime I practice Patriots team, It's like, is this a variable spot? And you know, variable in this exact spot. So coming off a really bad loss in his career, right. This is just his career variable. 24:18 off a loss as a head coach of the Patriots or the Titans. So it's pretty impressive this season. He's two and a straight up, I guess a spread off a loss this season. Obviously haven't lost much this season, but he tends to get his guys ready to bounce back in this game. And you know, Lamar, like I gave you that stat, how incredible he's been, you know, he used to be dominant night games. He was incredible. I think before this season, he's 20 and 5 in night games coming into the season this year, he's one in three straight up in night games. So like we always talk about these. Eventually these stats start going the other way. And that's why I think we're backing on here, because I, I don't see it. I think the Patriots are honestly a better team, more complete team, this Ravens team. And the only thing for me that gives me pause is the Ravens have the pedigree, right? They've been there before. They've been in these spots. So really love unique spot. Love this numbering. Yeah. Hard Rock has two and a half. Every other book is still a three for the Patriots. Like Chad said, if you can go get the Patriots now, I'm with you. I think the pros come in back the Patriots and bet this number down. So three is such a key number. I want people to get it before it does move to two and a half.
- [51:23]
Simon Hunter
All right, so what am I missing right now?
- [51:27]
Chad Mellon
If I'm talking Cowboys?
- [51:30]
Simon Hunter
Well, the number moved and so, you know, that scared us.
- [51:33]
Chad Mellon
That scared you off, that one point movement?
- [51:35]
Simon Hunter
I don't know. I guess so a little bit.
- [51:37]
Chad Mellon
I, I didn't have a right read on this one. I just was gonna blindly bet this Charger side. I just felt like it's a Chargers kind of spot to back them and the fact that they're a dog. People still aren't sure about Herbert, his injury. I mean, people are talking about Herbert as if he should be the MVP in a game where I think he scored 19 against the Eagles and 16 against the Chiefs. It's just we live in a very bizarre time. There's never been dumber people speaking on microphones, and that's the damn truth.
- [52:05]
Simon Hunter
But yeah, it's like looking in the mirror, man.
- [52:07]
Chad Mellon
Yeah. Seriously though, I, I looked at this matchup, I just wanted to find. Okay, are there Any at least trends here that can maybe make me flip to this Dax side? And there are some really good trends. That backup Dakota in 19 games in his career when he's on a Homestead, which is back to back home games. Dak in this exact spot, he's 154 straight up. 118 against the spread his last 15 games in this exact spot. So back to back homestead, he's 132 straight up. So if you want to be like Chad and you are worried about the number. Yeah, the one and a half, if you can get it, that obviously is way better in that type of scenario because say the juice on the one and a half is minus 120. You probably can just take the money line from minus 130. And that's, that's probably where you want to be with Dak in this exact matchup because like you said, the movement, maybe it does scare me because this is a Chargers back door type of game, but I don't know if the Chargers offense can keep up with this Dallas offense. And that's, that's my pause here. It's like their, their defense needed, what was it, five takeaways against the Eagles to win that game where I think the Eagles May put up 16. On the flip side, the Chiefs, you know, put up 13 points and they were dysfunctional, but they were moving the ball like there are ways to move the ball against this Chargers team. I think this might be the exact matchup for this Cowboys team to get right. So since, you know, 20, 22, Dallas when they're on the home stand playing against a team that is above 500. Dak3:0 in this exact spot. So, you know, once again, I'm trying to find stuff to get off this Cowboys team, but it just seems like all the numbers, the pros are right. Right. The pros came in heavy on this one. I didn't really understand it. This was the Charger side, but the underlying numbers back it up. And offensively, you know, I hate to say they're the more desperate team here, but the Chargers got their big wins, right? That was emotional against the Eagles and a huge emotional win against the chart. The Chiefs, you expect them to have a letdown spot against a Dallas team that just got embarrassed in a primetime game. So this feels like another pros versus Joe's pros all over the Cowboys team public. They will be hammering this Chargers team. So yeah, I'm with you, Chad. I've come the other side of this Cowboys team. I'll give you full credit because I Just did not see it. I think even you might even mention Sunday night I totally missed this one and I'm chasing the number now.
- [54:23]
Simon Hunter
Well, I'll put it on the list. The last one that I forgot to mention that is still interesting to me is Arizona as a two and a half point dog at Atlanta didn't come up in sharp calls like I like it basically because of the number in the spot. I don't want to bet Atlanta as a road favorite but are we blind to our love for Jacoby Brissette because we thought he was the better quarterback for this offense in limited opportunities before he got the job and then he did and we bet into him and we won a couple times but then we got killed a couple times. Where do we stand right now on this? I still lean Arizona. It's going to be two and a half all the way across the board. I'd almost rather bet him on the money line and just take a flyer.
- [55:14]
Chad Mellon
Yeah, it's another game where I. I honestly didn't have a penny on it because I was waiting to see where the number was going to go and it did go up. Like you can get the three now in Arizona if you want to get it. And I did take a position once I did get to the three and I'll hit you with all the numbers. We knew all these numbers are going to be terrible in this Falcons team. Right? Especially after a win. The Falcons. All right, let's get into it. So after a straight up win since 2019 they are 11, 24 and 1 against the spread after a win including 1 and 3 against the spread this season. All right, what's Kirk Cousins after a win? Kirk Cousins in his career again, think about how good Kirk used to be. Now he's washed up and kind of terrible. He was 33, 46 against the spread in his career. So he's not good after straight up wins either. Not just. Not even. Even Atlantis. Atlanta's terrible. Kirk Cousins just as bad. Every other underlying number. Chad, this Arizona team is atrocious. There is nothing I can give to you to sell you on this team. Really. Their defensive numbers horrible. Their pass rush terrible. So Kirk should be able to pick this defense apart. Our only hope is, you know, Jacoby Brissette against bad defenses has been pushing the ball downfield. He's actually not that good though. Like a lot of his numbers are just straight junk time numbers. So I have other games I want to talk about so I'm happy to avoid this one but I'm glad you're not strongly like, hey, we need to hammer this Arizona one because I would have to support you because I am on Arizona. But my God, if we can avoid this one like Tennessee, I'm happy now.
- [56:36]
Simon Hunter
I feel like we got some games that we feel pretty good about. But if, if you're m. If I'm missing something, tell me.
- [56:42]
Chad Mellon
Yeah, I'm shocked. Just a couple games that you skipped. I'm shocked you skipped the Carolina Panther game. You wavering on that one a little bit?
- [56:49]
Simon Hunter
A little bit, yeah. Although it is three and a half in the contest, right.
- [56:53]
Chad Mellon
And I, I'm once again, I, I, I, I'm shocked. The public and the professionals alike have come in so heavy on this Tampa team where I mean I joked about it but like the, the Panthers got, they got screwed last week. I mean they got bamboozled like that. That hit on shuck the clock should have ran out. That should have been an overtime game where the Panthers, yes, they did blow that game, but they're being priced as if they just, they got straight up beat or dominated by that Saints team. And I feel like it's gone too far where the Panthers have been good to us this season. Like we've been backing them in certain spots and fade them in others. And of course this is the exact spot where we're supposed to back this Panthers. And that's why I'm just shocked Kevin brought up where they lost last week. This season Panthers after a loss, they are 60 against the spread this season. So it's like we've seen it time and time again. The public fades them, the number moves too much and they become a value. And you just said it, three and a half in the contest, that's a value. This Bucs team, they are better. No doubt. They have a more complete offense. Even when everything was rolling this season, it was always Baker coming from behind and them covering by, you know, a couple points, right? And I was really shocked to see this number again, another every AMRA's number. Just an amazing number here since week seven. Baker, he's 36 of 38 quarterbacks in the NFL of EPA per play.
- [58:18]
Simon Hunter
Look, we know struggling, he's been struggling. The offense has been struggling. We're trying to reconcile. Is the offense going to be better now that everybody is back? Obviously he didn't have anybody in that window other than a Mecca Buka. Now he's got Bucky driven back. He's got Mike Evans back, he's got Chris Godwin back. The offensive line is getting healthier but they still haven't looked very good. But it was the defense that blew that game against the Falcons mostly. Baker did throw a bad pick, but it was the defense that blew that game. Flip side Panthers Bryce Young best quarterback in terms of wins. Comeback wins in the fourth quarter in overtime since 202311 comeback wins. So now he's an underdog and you know that's how they like to play. We talked about this on Tuesday. I love Bryce in this spot but I saw all the professional money coming in on the box and it just sort of scared me off.
- [59:19]
Chad Mellon
My spot and the pros I talked do not and I'm calling lazy pros but they're, they're some of the pros I talk to. They simply play. Don't even look at any type of research. They're simply playing certain spots. And this one here is they just don't think the books can keep not covering. Right. It's a lazy bet. But it's six straight weeks that Bucs have not covered. It would be if they don't cover here. It would be their longest non covering streak since 1982. So I guess these guys are just betting on straight up on the better team and the laws of averages. But I think the Bucks are who they are. Right. And I think they're not reacting too much to it of they are a good team but they don't have the defense to really roll and blow out teams let alone be a three three and a half now in our contest point favorite on the road in a divisional game here. So you know, I get it. This, this game obviously means much more to this Panthers team because the Bucks basically they can lose this game but if they win their next two, they still win the division regardless of what the Panthers do here. So it's a unique spot. And I just have one more game I want to talk about that we didn't mention. Sorry man. Mitchell, it's that lines Pittsburgh game. What the hell are we doing with this game, Chad? I am so flabbergasted by this game.
- [60:26]
Simon Hunter
Well, Bing luck, it feels like the classic Steeler spot. We should be backing the Steelers. The Lions do not deserve to be six and a half seven point favorites in this game. It doesn't make any sense. They're not good enough to be doing that. It feels like a line from two years ago or last year. Yeah, and but is there so much hype now on the Steelers that are all of a sudden becomes the public side because of what they've done? Because they've Continued to win because now they are leading the division because everyone is starting get excited about Aaron Rogers. Like I, I'm just sort of like, you want to bet the Mike Tomlin and Rah Rah spot, all of that stuff. I don't feel the need to put it in the contest because I feel like we got a lot of other options like Carolina, Dallas, New England, Las Vegas, the Jags, Buffalo, the Giants. Like we got a lot of games that we feel better about. So talk me into putting Pittsburgh on the list.
- [61:31]
Chad Mellon
That's why I didn't want to blindside. I flipped. I am on the lines. I told you I wanted to be on Pittsburgh and I was just like, maybe I'm overreacting too much what you just said. I'm giving too much credit probably to Aaron Rodgers and this is going to be a track meet. This is going to be a track meet. We know this Pittsburgh defense is suspect. They are not that good, let alone indoors. Like this is a bad spot to back them. And I was like, okay, I'm missing this because I really wanted to be on Pittsburgh. And you know, even then, even look at the Tomlin numbers him as a big dog. Actually pretty terrible. Like you want to be backing Tomlin as a big underdog in his career, as a seven plus point dog in his career. Tomlin 3 and 15 straight up 7 and 10 against the spread. So he's actually struggling. This exact spot, the big one that jumped out. To me, I know I already said that a lot of these, you know, Dan Campbell and Jared Goff stats are Ben Johnson stats. This one to me is the biggest Ben Johnson stat that I could find from their, their previous history together. I told you, I thought we were dead in that Rams game for good reason because I knew there was something insane about that. The Lions just don't seem to blow those type of games. The Lions had not blown a 10 point lead in almost three years. So in those three years in that exact spot when they were leading by 10 plus points. 10 plus points. They're 21 0, straight up their only loss. You will remember this one well, NFC title game. Yes. Against the 49ers in the playoffs. And I was like, man, I remember that. Like that. You know, they took out Montgomery, put Gibson, Gibbs had a bad fumble and bang, bang, I think two touchdowns in a row by the 49ers. That game was totally flipped. So, you know, it's historically a unique spot to back Dan Campbell. Like we've talked about it off a straight up loss. Dan Campbell and Jared Goff 23:9 against the spread. Even more insane since 2022 in this exact spot, they are 14:1 against the spread. And you know, I look all the time, it's like, okay, well how's Dan Campbell been as a head coach when they blow a seven point lead? Like that's, that's a lot to ask your team to bounce back from. He is 9 of 5 straight up 11 and 3 against the spread in this exact spot. So I just want you to be on it. It's six, it's six and a half right now in our contest. I'd bet the six and a half on the Lions team. I thought the number should be four, four and a half. That's why Model thinks as well. And I think both of us are overreacting that this Lions team, they're not as bad as I'm perceiving them to be. Like they actually are a really good high powered offense. I think they're number one and number two in total yards this season. Even with Dan Campbell taking over offensively, it's been the defense that's held them back all season. So to me, matchup wise, as good as Rogers looked in that last game, I think there are ways for this team to attack them, especially that defensive front to give the Rogers some problems where Miami, they have no real pass rush and we talk Miami is bad as Miami is defensively coming to the year, that was like the worst secondary in all football. And as much injuries as this, this Detroit team has had, they still, they play hard for Campbell, they hit hard. They know that they're just going to run tons of zones here. And that's, you know, what you expect Rogers to be able to pick apart. But we've seen it. Rogers, these last couple weeks, he's been pushing the ball downfield. He's actually struggled against certain type of zones this season. So to me, this feels like it's going to be a game that's going to be a lot of points. And I don't see the Steelers keeping up with the chat. So I just wanted to bring it up just in case I don't blindside you come Sunday for my love with the team.
- [64:47]
Simon Hunter
It's on the list. It's on the list. We've added it to the list. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock bet. You want to know where I bet on sports during the holiday season? It's Hard Rock bet. Not just because it's the presenting sponsor of our show, but because they make it easy to bet on my favorite teams, players and leagues in just a few simple taps, especially with their brand new for your page that recommends picks based on my favorite picks and who I like to bet on. I open the app, go to my for your page, find a bet I like, and then bam. My bet is placed just in time for me to get back to wrapping presents, presence and enjoying my favorite holiday movie. Sign up today and bet $5 on any game if it wins. You also score $150 in bonus bets, a winning bet plus an extra hundred and fifty dollars to bet with. Now that's spreading holiday cheer. Plus Hard Rock bet fills your stockings with new promos daily, so whenever you're listening, just open the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week, download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit today. Payable in bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC and all other states must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1833, playwise in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809 with it gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia.
- [66:40]
Doug
Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn turn any idea into an investable index. With AI, it all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like EFTs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures.
- [67:52]
Sponsor Voice
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- [67:53]
Chad Mellon
We have the Limu Emu in its natural habitat, helping people customize their car insurance and save hundreds with Liberty Mutual. Fascinating. It's accompanied by his natural ally, Doug.
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Doug
Uh, Limu is that guy with the binoculars watching us?
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Chad Mellon
Cut the camera.
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Doug
They see us. Only pay for what you need@libertymutual.com Liberty Liberty Liberty Liberty Savings Ferry underwritten by Liberty Mutual Insurance Company and affiliates excludes.
- [68:19]
Chad Mellon
Massachusetts how are USDA staff cuts and budget challenges affecting farmers with conservation? I've saved my soil and I provide food for my community. I wouldn't have been able to do that without the NRCS programs. A lot of farmers are thinking that they're not able to farm next year. Crop prices are below cost of production.
- [68:40]
Doug
And so these programs are what keep.
- [68:42]
Chad Mellon
Farmers in the business of farm, protect.
- [68:45]
Doug
Conservation funding and staff that supports farmers paid for by Invest in Our Land.
- [68:50]
Podcast Announcer
Season 2 of unrivaled basketball is here and the talent is unreal. The best women's players on the planet are running it back with even bigger moments and bigger stakes. Don't miss as Paige Beckers, Nafiza Collier, Kelsey Plumb, Brianna Stewart and more take the court and redefine the game. This isn't your regular season. This is unrivaled where the pace is faster, the energy energy is higher and every athlete shines. Unrivaled basketball. Season 2, sponsored by Samsung Galaxy, tips off January 5 on TNT, TruTV and HBO Max.
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Sponsor Voice
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- [70:22]
Chad Mellon
Yeah buddy.
- [70:23]
Simon Hunter
Biggest bets Pull up those Pants and be a man.
- [70:30]
Chad Mellon
Biggest bets, honestly, because. Because I went so hard last week, going too crazy this week. Right now, my biggest early position, just because they're, you know, Saturday games, is Washington and the Packers. I mean, not packers, the Bears. I could get bigger on the ramps tonight, but I just, like I said, I've been a little lukewarm on that. I'm just. Maybe I'm too close to it for the Sunday games. My bigger position so far. Again, this was early in the week. I bet it with you, the Patriots. I just couldn't. Couldn't stop grabbing the plus three. Same with the Giants grabbing the plus three for favorites. You know, I think I'm gonna get there on Buffalo. We'll see. Right now, I'm not too heavily invested into it, but the more I look at that Buffalo line more, it feels like that's the type of game they just roll 30 to 7 or something like that. So I could get there on it. But, yeah, this week, obviously nowhere near as big as last week, but definitely took in some strong positions.
- [71:24]
Ad Read Announcer
My dog likes your dog.
- [71:26]
Chad Mellon
Your dog likes my dog.
- [71:29]
Simon Hunter
Moneyline underdog Parlay Tennessee.
- [71:33]
Chad Mellon
Yeah, throw it in.
- [71:34]
Simon Hunter
Arizona.
- [71:36]
Chad Mellon
Arizona. Okay, yeah, I'll do it.
- [71:37]
Simon Hunter
New York Giants.
- [71:41]
Chad Mellon
New England.
- [71:43]
Simon Hunter
New England.
- [71:44]
Chad Mellon
And. Gotta put. Gotta put my Jags in there.
- [71:48]
Simon Hunter
The Jags.
- [71:49]
Chad Mellon
Oh, my God. Saints are up to five and a half now.
- [71:52]
Simon Hunter
Jesus Christ. Favorites parlay. Saints.
- [71:58]
Chad Mellon
Yeah. Lions. Cincy. People might not hear, but I do love Bears. If we don't do Bears, though, we could do Buffalo. Yeah, take. Do. Do. Adjusted. Don't. Don't do the minus five and a half. Five and a half. Yeah.
- [72:17]
Simon Hunter
I'll do the Bears.
- [72:19]
Chad Mellon
Bears. And if people don't hear this and they missed that Bears one throw in Dallas. Dallas. That's a really nice, unique spot for them to win that game out right. I give you all those numbers.
- [72:26]
Simon Hunter
Wow. You come around a long way on that one. I know.
- [72:30]
Chad Mellon
Bullying does. Does work on certain people.
- [72:33]
Simon Hunter
All right, sharp versus Square. Who do we got?
- [72:40]
Chad Mellon
Sharp versus Square. I'll do it. I'll. I'll go super square. Give me. Give me the bills minus 10.
- [72:50]
Simon Hunter
Wow.
- [72:51]
Chad Mellon
I know. I just know somehow I'm gonna end up betting a ton of money to that line. I just. I. I. As soon as I saw that, that go. That Josh Allen stat against good defense, it's like, my God, he just rolls these type of teams.
- [73:03]
Simon Hunter
All right, so rest balls was Washington.
- [73:10]
Chad Mellon
Come on, you got to do Tennessee.
- [73:12]
Simon Hunter
I wish I was just gonna say I'm taking Tennessee. I'm taking the Titans. All right.
- [73:17]
Chad Mellon
Are you really?
- [73:18]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [73:18]
Chad Mellon
Oh my God.
- [73:20]
Simon Hunter
I am. I am all right. This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume Podcast network. We will be back on Sharper Square Sunday Morning on YouTube. You can eavesdrop on a very intimate conversation. We're going to make human decisions and it's going to be miserable. We will be back later that day at 7:30 ish Sunday night sharper square on YouTube. Watch or listen sharper square on YouTube like the video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Till next time. Love you. Hey baby. Hey baby.
- [74:02]
Chad Mellon
We gonna be here all day. We're gonna be here all day baby.
- [74:06]
Simon Hunter
I like this kind of party. I like this kind of party, baby.
- [74:10]
Doug
Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like EFTs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member finra SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not investment recommendation or advice. Complete Disclosure Disclosures available at public.comDisclosures@CVS it.
- [75:21]
Podcast Announcer
Matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night. And we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CVS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and yeah, healthy snack. At cvs, we're proud to serve you your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So Visit us@cvs.com or just come by our store. We can't wait to meet you. Store hours vary by location.
- [75:55]
Chad Mellon
What a matchup we got, y'.
- [75:57]
Sponsor Voice
All.
- [75:57]
Chad Mellon
This is that classic HBCU vibe. Non stop action. The band is rocking and the crowd lit. Chance echo drum beat, everybody. Showing that school pride gave me like this. Yeah, it calls for an ice cold Coca Cola. Ah, crisp and refreshing. That's a game changer right there. Yeah, that taste always hits the right note. Just like the band at halftime. And just like that, we're back at it. Passionate fans, school colors everywhere and an ice cold Coca Cola. That's a winning combo. No matter the sport, no matter the everybody knows fan work is thirsty work. So grab a Coca Cola and keep that HBCU pride going. Janice Torres here and I'm Austin Hankwitz.
- [76:46]
Doug
We host the podcast Mind the Small Business Success Stories produced by Ruby Studio.
- [76:51]
Chad Mellon
In partnership with Intuit QuickBooks.
- [76:53]
Podcast Announcer
We're back for season four to talk to some incredible small business owners.
- [76:57]
Chad Mellon
The big thing about working at tech is that it's ever evolving, ever changing. Everyone's a rookie. That's how fast the industry is changing. So what I'm really excited about is to be part of that change.
- [77:05]
Doug
So listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple.
- [77:07]
Chad Mellon
Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [77:12]
Simon Hunter
Amazon five Star Theater presents real customer reviews performed by Ed Helms. Tonight's tactical jacket.
- [77:21]
Chad Mellon
I was living a simple life.
- [77:23]
Simon Hunter
Didn't get out much. Then I bought this jacket and everything changed. Women came flocking to me from lands domestic and foreign. On the 245 day sailboat voyage home.
- [77:37]
Chad Mellon
I was attacked by a shark.
- [77:40]
Simon Hunter
I knew it was the jacket he was after. Giving up the jacket in exchange for my life.
- [77:46]
Chad Mellon
5 stars Amazon Customer 69 Shop the.
- [77:50]
Simon Hunter
Perfect gift this holiday on Amazon.
- [77:52]
Podcast Announcer
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.