Simon Hunter (2:42)

Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rodbat. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares Sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad and I am joined as always by my bff, my companion, my compadre, my co host, professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.

Chad (3:07)

Chad. What we thought was going to be a terrible Christmas day for football actually turned out to be pretty dang good. So I'll give props to NFL. Doesn't matter what they put out there, the product wise, they always end up getting good games. And so Evan Abrams had a crazy tweet. Holiday games, Thanksgiving, dogs, three zero, Black Friday, obviously the Bears, your Bears dominated. The Eagles covered as a dog. And then we went 30 again on Christmas. So underdogs on the holidays, 7 0. Pretty, pretty crazy. And yeah, for our show, you know, I, I pushed on Dallas, but we hit on Minnesota, hit on the Chiefs, lost on the Moneyline parlay, obviously the Lions lost out right in the. The Dallas Cowboys now 15 1, set the record most overs ever for a first half in an NFL season. So thank you, Dallas Cowboys once again, deck Dak Prescott in a meaningless game of December. My God, is he good.

Simon Hunter (4:02)

Simon, as one of my favorite Englishmen, you are, let me be one of the first to wish you a happy Boxing Day.

Chad (4:17)

Chad. I finally got the real info on Boxing Day from my mother. I asked my mom what Boxing Day was and it blew my mind. It's a Victorian era holiday. It goes back to 1833, Boxing Day. And apparently she said it was basically the rich people would give their leftover gifts to their servants and they would give them the day off after Christmas because obviously they have to work on Christmas. So it wasn't as happy and jolly as I thought it was gonna be. It's still a cool holiday because it's a tradition of people getting off work and it's a holiday I wish America, I can't even today. I saw people out working today. It's like, my God, we can't, we can't figure out a holiday for Boxing Day and we can't figure out the holiday after the Super Bowl. I might need to run for president just on those two basis. Chad, give us the day off of Christmas and the day off after the Super Bowl.

Simon Hunter (5:08)

Well, look, you and I are working today. Matt Mitchell is working today. That's. Yeah, exactly. We're working, we're struggling through it. My Christmas was blown up because I tested positive for Covid. I know Matt Mitchell's Christmas was a blast. Even though he was in the ER or his wife was in the ER with one of his kids for most of the Christmas Eve night. But here we are. We're getting through it. We are the Kansas City Chiefs of the podcast world. We are going to get through it. We're going to play our best. We're going to be professionals. We're going to cover. We're going to cover it all.

Chad (5:45)

Oh, I didn't even mention Chiefs. They covered like Chad just said now that stat since 1970s, the Chiefs as a double digit dog at home 140 against the spread. Crazy.

Simon Hunter (5:55)

Can't beat it. Can't beat it. All right, let's get into this thing because every week we get some feedback from the professional betters who have been listening to the show. And Simon, they got a lot of feedback for you. It's time for sharp call.

Chad (6:15)

I have to answer this phone.

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Chad (6:20)

Ring, ring, telephone ring. Somebody said maybe what you doing? Yeah. Let's start off with the Saturday games. They loved Chad's bet on the Texans, which I agreed with. Right. I think we were both on the same page of that one. We liked that matchup a lot. And you know, especially again we could break down more. But I feel like every probably talk to you probably had the same mentality that we do. It's just, yes, the Chargers have been winning. This is going to be the best D line they, they faced since the Eagles. I remember how much the Eagles were just in their face. I mean Houston's D line's probably better than the Eagles. So that was a really fun discussion game. We've seen that number come down now from peaked at two and a half, I think and most books now down to one one and a half on this charger. So yeah, professionalized, definitely hit that one now. I don't know. Not much to say about the Green Bay Ravens, unfortunately. Like we, we were spot on with our early read on that one. We talked about grabbing the two and a half. The pros did grab that. But I would say in the last 24 hours, I haven't really talked to many pros backing Green Bay now at minus four and a half without the unknown of who the quarterback's going to be.

Simon Hunter (7:16)

So we're not even going to talk about this game?

Chad (7:19)

No. Well, in our other contest, it's probably going to be a play for us at two and a half just because that's such a good number now, especially if Lamar is going to miss that game for the Ravens. Let's get to the Sunday games. Really, really interesting splits between the Eagles, which I think the pros absolutely love, and the Joe Public and us on that Bill Side might have got a little caught there. I really didn't think the Eagles would be playing starters, but apparently they're all in and maybe we underestimated there might be an injury to Josh Allen. So that's an interesting game. We're definitely going to break down some more. Pros love the Colts. A game I think you were on. I was definitely on the other side of it. I'm kind of indifferent about just, I just think the Jags are just so much a better team. So that was a really interesting one. Tennessee. Not that shocking. I told you that felt like a really sharp play by you. Pros love it. Every pro I've talked to is on that side. It's gonna be the definition of pros versus Joe's line up on that side. The public is hammering that same side. Gonna be a really interesting matchup. Cleveland Browns is actually not as just pro as I thought it was going to be. The public is coming on Cleveland as well. But that was a pro game. Believe it. Opened four and a half. DK suspension came out. Probably dropped it to four, three and a half like we did our show. You got the three and a half. Now you see the professional money coming in very heavy. Bumping this down to three at most books. Even some two and a halfs popped up. Some saw some buyback from the pros and this went back to three. So that's another really interesting game and game I gave out. I knew the pros would be on it. I, I love the Seattle Seahawks. That's going to be another draw the line in the sand. Pros versus Joe's. Now I did talk to some really sharp groups that did take the Panthers seven and a half. But they're indifferent. Right. Once it gets to seven, they really just bought the number on the hook. Just a really interesting game that went a lot of back and forth. So yeah, the cap it out. I'm on the other side of it. I'm going against my, my brain. Professional brothers. I really like the Rams. They love the Falcons. They love the number on the Falcons. They love the match of the Falcons. And I don't know if you have an opinion on that one, but I thought it was rich and I just, I'm even more dug in. I bet even more money on the Rams which went to seven, seven and a half. So that's a really fun game to break down.

Simon Hunter (9:20)

All right, well, let's get into it. I, I, I think we have some differences of opinions and then we're on the same side of a Bunch of things. The Texans at the Chargers. I'm so bummed we can't put this into our Sharper Square contest with all of our listeners because we both love the Texans here. I bet the Texans at two and a half. I bet him on the money line. D' Amico Ryan, 16% ROI as an outright underdog as a head coach. But look, this is all about betting against the Chargers offensive line. I just will not be fooled by. By them beating up on the Cowboys and looking great against a team that did what it did against Josh Johnson in the second half on Christmas. I won't be fooled by them beating up on the Eagles and getting that win when they, when Jalen Hurts had so many turnovers in that game. I'm just not buying it. I know Justin Herbert is great. That'll buy. This offensive line is in trouble and this offensive line is going against a defense that I think is actually better than the Broncos. I want to make a point about that when we talk about the Jags. So, yeah, like, I'm just going to keep betting the Texans.

Chad (10:42)

Yeah. It's interesting where this game ends up because like you said, it's the. As great as the Chargers have been, a lot of it has just been kind of, you know, that Eagles game, they probably should have lost it. Right. Things went their way. And yeah, we're giving props to Herbert. He had a horrible game, but he outlasted Hertz in that game where, you know, Hertz had crucial turnovers at the very end of the game, driving to win the game. And, you know, Herbert didn't. As bad as he played in that game, he played well enough obviously, to win it. Same with the Chiefs game. He didn't play amazing. They only scored one touchdown. But they outlasted them. Right. They won 16 3. That was the exact type of game that Herbert always loses to my home. So I do want to give Herbert props. I know people were saying, you know, he should be the MVP discussion. That's. That's too far going the one way. But I do think he deserves to get the respect of, you know, this is a guy that, like you said, he's lost both his tackles, has a bad hand, still producing week to week. So I get why the general public is backing him here. Right. Why they trust him more in the sense that, you know, in the playoffs, that matchup the last time they played, you do kind of have to burn those tapes and throw it away. Right. That was the worst games Herbert could possibly have. But the defensive scheme that I think is going to give Herbert the same type of problems. Has not changed. And it's even more so he doesn't have his, you know, starting left tackle and right tackle from that game against one of the best lines in football. So I am right there with you, Chad. It's, it's the toughest part about our contest. Right. There are five games this week we cannot play in our contest because there's two on Saturday and the three obviously from Christmas. That's hard. That means we have 11 games left to pick from, from our contest, three of which I don't want to bet. So now we have aching. Yeah. Games that you guys have eight. So still the time, our contest, I love it but it is really tough and tons of respect to the people that do play it. I think we had, what was it, 10 or three different people start 10, 0 to start the year for this contest. Just really impressive because we say the lines are always moving. It's a really tough contest. So I'm like, you wish we could get this one. I love the Texans here, but maybe, maybe it's for the best. I think it's one and a. It would be one and a half in our contest. That's where most lines are going.

Simon Hunter (12:45)

I don't think I care. Like, I, I'm betting more on the money line for this game than I am on the side.

Chad (12:51)

That's fair. I, I, I, you know me, I'm so into the, the number two how it's such a key number. I just, I feel much safer taking the two. Two and a half.

Simon Hunter (12:59)

Seattle at Carolina. You loved this game. You have it. As Simon says for Seattle. I was surprised and sharp calls to hear that other professionals were lining up on Seattle because like the Panthers are our beloved. Right. We have been betting on the Panthers and Bryce Young for two years now. We just had a huge win with the Panthers against the Buccaneers as home dogs last week. You make a very good point. Seattle's been great on the road. The Panthers have been flip flopping. Good, bad, good, bad, good, good, bad. Doesn't matter if they're at home or on the road. So I need to hear more. I just need to know more about 48 hours since we discussed it. 72 hours since we discussed it. Why is everybody loving the Seattle team?

Chad (13:54)

Well, it's just there's, there's different classes like the, the Panthers as much love and props were given to them. Seattle's in a totally different stratosphere when we talk about talent level. And I get it, like can the Panthers keep up offensive, right. We've seen Bryce Young have these incredible performances where he can keep his team in any game. Yeah, that can easily happen. That's why the public is coming in on this team, right? They kind of the same view, I think that you're kind of can hear a little bit of like, is Seattle really seven and a half points better than Carolina? Which I guess in a vacuum they're probably not, but I think most of that models, if you keep simulating this game, Seattle absolutely dominates this matchup, you know, 55, 57% of the time, which again, that's an edge to me. That's something I'm looking for. And you know, just looking at this game, that Carolina game we talked about, the Bucks, they were in total control of that game and Baker just had a total meltdown that second half where Bryce Young stepped up, had big time throws heading into that. If I, if the Panthers had lost, I honestly would have this game at 10. So I moved it, you know, a point, a point and a half because they did win that game. It, it feels like the books and the public have moved at three, three and a half points because of that. And it just feels like a total reaction where we've seen this Panthers team right when they're, you know, at home against the Rams. That game, they won that game. If you go back and watch it, that was probably one of Stafford's worst games and he still put up 28 points. So we've seen teams can move the ball. Against this Panthers team, it's all about Bryce Young keeping up with them. This is different. The Seattle's defense is just so legit and, and defensively, their defensive front, I think you could argue they have two of the best 5D tackles in all football this season, especially against the run. So it's going to be a one dimensional game. It's all going to be on Bryce Young that beat them passing. And I already gave you all those stats about, you know, Sam Darnold when he's a big favorite. The books are telling you something, right? It's a unique thing for me. He's been a, he's been a favorite of seven points or more 12 times in his career. He's 9 to 3 against the spread. 12, 0 straight up in those games. So Sam Darnold, we've seen these last two years. This is the only time he's been these bigger favorites these last two years. He's lived up to those numbers. He tends to perform very well against bad defenses. So this we Saw yesterday with the Lions team. When teams are playing for an automatic bid or just to keep their playoff lives alive, sometimes they collapse beneath the pressure. This is the exact same thing for the Panthers. The Panthers need to win this game and they don't need to care about the Bucks next week. How many times we've seen these teams look ahead and have a total let down this spot. So it's, it is painful. I don't want to do this to the Panthers, but it makes me happy knowing no matter what, if it's three, if it's two, we'll be on the Panthers next week anyway. So I'm, I'm getting off on this week. Chad. I love Seattle in this spot, but it, it's, it's, it's something I've done with Panthers this season. Just been up and down week to week and this just feels like a really bad spot for them. With the look ahead for the Bucs next week.

Simon Hunter (16:46)

Jacksonville at Indy. That's the game that I want to talk about. You and I are against each other on this game. Jacksonville is a six and a half point favorite. Number one. I just feel like this is the ultimate buy low sell high. Right. We saw what the Patriot we saw with the Colts did on Monday Night Football against the Niners. Couldn't cover anyone lost by three touchdowns. We saw what the Jags did against the Broncos winning going away on the road against a team that very likely is competing for the number one seed here. I have a theory. I don't think the Broncos defense is actually or the Broncos offense is actually as good as they're being given credit for. And I think the B. Knicks miracle comebacks have sort of elevated them because look, they didn't do that great against Jacksonville. Then they turned around and didn't do that great against the Chiefs that had a crapload of backups playing in the game. So I think by that transitive property, the Jacksonville Jaguars are being a little bit overrated here. And I will say that home dogs have more than a field goal off a blowout. 61% against the spread. That one. No fog, my friend. That is clear as day. Indianapolis Colts plus six and a half.

Chad (18:12)

Yeah, and that's, that's why I like the. The Denver part. I get why people have hated. Right. Their defense probably isn't as good as we give them credit for either. They've had a pretty soft schedule. But the props I did give the Bo Nicks is same thing with Caleb Williams. Like these comeback wins. What more are you looking for in Your second year quarterback like these, they keep winning these one score games. Denver, which is really impressive to me and I'm with you. Am I going to be hammering them for super bowl odds? No, they have to get caught eventually. Denver and this Jaguars team a little bit we're talking about here, that's very true is that this is peak, right? This is probably them being supervalued by the general public. I don't know if it's so much by the models and that's, that's what I'm having a hard time with here. So Chad's on the sharp side. This number to me, just like last week, the Colts, I believe they opened six or six and a half against the 49ers. It closed four and a half by kickoff. So this number here, like Chad's saying, there's a six and a half at Hard Rock here in Jersey. It's. It literally just went to six. I'm seeing a couple books already moved to five and a half as we speak right now. So the pros, they're with Chad, they're coming in heavy on this cold side. I just, I gave you guys historical numbers. I can't go against it. It's just every time I think the Jags will eventually slip up here. It doesn't matter if it was Minshew, doesn't matter if it was Blake Bortles. It's just they've had tons of trash at the quarterback position and the Jags always some for some reason find a way to cover and beat this Colts team. Now when they have a well oiled machine on offense, the Jaguars, the Trevor Lawrence playing at the highest level I've ever seen. I'm not gonna lie to you Chad. I'm just, I can't do it. I can't go against them. So people betting this one, if you are with Chad and you're taking Indianapolis, like I said, it is the sharp side. You got to grab the number now because I do think the pros are going to bet this down for me that I like the Jags. Now that I'm seeing the lineman, I'll just be patient. I'll take the five and a half or if anything I'll just throw them in a teaser and just take the money line. This Jaguars team. But like I said, if we, we come Sunday morning, Chad's really like Chad's saying I need this Colts winning the contest. I'm not going to fight you on it because I do believe you're right. That is the sharp side. And The Jagger due for a letdown. It's just. I can't get over how good this Jags offense is. Even I. We went back and watched that Denver, that Denver game. Liam's in his bag, man. Like him scamming up how open these guys were. Rub routes, using the tight end to come out in the flat route to bring the. The cornerback down. So there'd be a. A higher route, you know, in the middle of the field and just there's multiple times watching. There's just guys wide open against them in the middle field. So I, like I said, I just, I'm. It's like the Rams with me in the Rams now. I think the Jags have won me so much money here these last couple weeks. I just think they're just so undervalued by the general public. So could be, could be a week that Chad's much sharper than me with his Covid cold because he's not in only this game, but the Tennessee game. You were, you were ahead of it on both of these games, being the sharp side.

Simon Hunter (21:03)

Well, let's talk about Tennessee. Maybe I should just have Covid every week and then I'll just have clarity. Fog for fog for everything else but clarity when it comes to the lines.

Chad (21:12)

So that's the best way to live. Yeah.

Simon Hunter (21:14)

Yeah. New Orleans. Well, part of it is like for the past 36 hours, I've been quarantined from my family and. Which is actually annoying because, you know, my kids are home for a limited time and they're old enough now that it's actually just really fun to go out with them. Like they have real things to say and real conversations and it's just I a blast to be hanging with them. And now I'm just sitting here in my freaking office because I can't do anything.

Chad (21:49)

It's a Christmas miracle, people. A man in his 50s realizes kids have personalities. Incredible.

Simon Hunter (21:57)

Don't make me wheeze.

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Simon Hunter (25:42)

New Orleans @ Tennessee. This line is now down to two and a half. At Hard Rock, it opened at three and a half. We've been betting it, or at least I have. I also bet Tennessee on the money line. So look, you've said it. The wise guys are on it. I, I don't love that there is a majority of the tickets coming in on the Titans. It makes me feel like we might be backing a little bit of a public dog. But I did start to feel better after you said the wise guys have been pounding this as.

Chad (26:11)

Well. Yeah, and that's fair. It could, it could be a little bit of a public dog. What we talked about, right? This is a, a Tennessee team that we've all left for dead and I think I gave it out. They won like three other last five. Like they had been winning games. It's been pretty impressive. So not, not that shocking. I didn't. I have not seen the ticket stuff, but you're right. Like I'll probably get more info on that as the week goes along here. But yeah, I. Like I said you were spot on it when it was three. The two and a half is still a great number as well. I'm. I'm. Like I said, I'm banned from betting it, but if I was going to bet it, I would be joining chatter. I think the early read on Tennessee is right and it's another game. I wouldn't be shocked if we did put in the contest because it's probably a game that should be a pick. But like me, I'm with the public. I, I still think the books are underrating Shuck and how great he's been for the Saints offense. So I really can't wait to see how this game ends up because either my motto is way off and I'm overrating Shuck and I am so in love with this guy because I have all this money on him to be Rookie of the Year or I'm spot on that he is legit. Which I cannot believe because going back watching his college tape, I just can't believe that he actually is a good quarterback. So yeah, this Saints game is really fun because it's not that it dictates the future, but I feel like it's, it's another game that decides, you know, is Chuck the best rookie this year? He's going to win Rookie of the year because this is a true test. Right. He's had a great test with the Panthers, the Bucks, those were great, great wins. But this one is really interesting because they just had a blowout win at home. Now they're going on the road. We'll see how this young rookie deals with success that.

Simon Hunter (27:43)

Way. I'm. This is, this is not going to be a corner TV game. This is going to be in the four.

Chad (27:51)

Boxes. Yeah, I'll be, I'll be locked in on this.

Simon Hunter (27:53)

One. I will so be watching this game for so many reasons. It's actually going to be a blast. And by the way, Kudos to Mike McCoy. Mike McCoy, who was kind of a nondescript, forgettable coach with the Chargers, has come in. Whatever he did has highlighted how bad Brian Callahan was. Right. Because with, with whether it was culture, whether it was discipline, whether it was play calling, running the ball, running the ball, how he's managing this team generally has just changed it dramatically and turned them into much more of a safer bet. I think you can lift your self imposed.

Chad (28:33)

Ban. I don't want to respect to the fans. I just, I cost them and myself way too much money with my stupid opinions on.

Simon Hunter (28:40)

Tennessee. Yeah. But the flip side is you could be costing them money now by banning it. Like I'm on it. I make it. I am now making money on the.

Chad (28:49)

Titans. It's crazy. What a world do you live.

Simon Hunter (28:51)

In? The COVID man. Covet brings clarity. Pittsburgh at Cleveland. Simon Cleveland Browns are a three point underdog at home. Like we said, the line has moved from four and a half to four to three and a half to three. Cleveland Browns are going to be our brass balls. Bed of the week Brad Presented by Hard Rock.

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Simon Hunter (29:19)

Balls. Who knows what's going to happen in this game if the, if the Ravens lose on Saturday night. Will Mike Tomlin all of a sudden start resting starters? We know DK Metcalf is not going to be playing. I think we're, we're leaning into the division rivalry. We're leaning into Miles Garrett going for the sack record. We're leaning into fading Mike Tomlin as a favorite on the road. It's an anti rah rah spot, all of those things. As you pointed out. This is where I want to say a bet on a team with nothing to play for versus a bet on a team with something to play for. In the last two weeks of the season, 61% against the spread. You said it more eloquently. But now That I remember it and it's in my notes. I wanted to share.

Chad (30:07)

It. Yeah. And it. Like Chad just said, it's a very unique spot here where we could be getting a great number because Pittsburgh could simply be sitting all their guys. Right. This is a really fun game that, you know, the Ravens, I think they're up to minus or plus four and a half.

Simon Hunter (30:22)

Now.

Chad (30:23)

Yeah. The books are kind of telling you they don't think they're going to win there. So the only thing keeping this number up is it's tons of public money coming in on the Steelers team because they're just seeing the minus three. Right. With a Pittsburgh team that's been beating pretty good competition these last couple weeks, playing a Brown steam that we all know they're just not very good, especially offensively. And they've had. Now they lost junkins to an injury, the running back, like, it's just. It's a nightmare for the Browns. But we've been talking all season, this Brown's team, you know, they. We were a little disappointed them because their defense, like, it wasn't showing up these last couple.

Simon Hunter (30:55)

Weeks.

Chad (30:55)

Yeah. You know, even that Bills game, you can't really say they dominated or showed up in that game. Totally. It was just. Buffalo really did take the gas pedal off that second half. But, you know, it was another game, was close. Right. And you just go through other games. You know, the Tennessee game, they lost at home. I think they lost by two. And that. That Bills game, even though they should have probably lost by 10 or 11, they only lost by three. So we've just seen this Brown team, even as bad as they've been down the stretcher, they still have been playing really tough and close games at home. And Chad just nailed it. It's like it's. This is going to be the Miles Garrett party. And I love the irony of it, if it is going to be Mason Rudolph being a quarterback that he gets the sack record against, all that just coming together. And yeah, it's. It's really interesting. We talk all the time about how I gave out that stat 5. The last six times Cleveland's beat Pittsburgh outright at home. And, you know, that's with, you know, DeSean Watson's backups and just disaster the season these Browns have had these last couple years, they've just continually beaten Pittsburgh in the spot at home. So never was going to avoid it. We talked about it in the contest, if you got to get the three and a half is a great number to lock in because that number just Felt like it was going to keep falling. And now that we know that whole Pittsburgh drama with the Ravens F. The Ravens lose Pittsburgh. They've locked up the the title of the North. They don't need to play anybody. I. I just don't see Tomlin risking all these veteran guys they have playing in this game. So this was a game you don't see Rogers and you know, as much as we like to hate on Rogers, he's been really.

Simon Hunter (32:20)

Impressive.

Chad (32:21)

Unreal. Yeah. So it's. It's. It's gonna be pretty interest to see how different this team is in a game that just means nothing against a Brown team. That I think this is going to mean something to them. I think they're gonna be playing hard. Especially Shador Sanders, who's. Yep, still playing for a job here. So think me and you were in sync. Your Chad, even if this is two and a half in our contest, I'd still take it as long as you're getting a good plus number on the Browns.

Simon Hunter (32:44)

Agree. Simon, you and I mind meld. I hope I don't give you.

Chad (32:48)

Covert one of my bigger bets this week. It's like I might really load up on Shador in the Browns, but it's a great.

Simon Hunter (32:54)

Number. We totally are. Matt Mitchell, I'm throwing you a curveball here because I want to add in Tampa Bay at Miami, the number is five and a half six. Simon, you didn't mention it in sharp calls at all, but this just is continuing to feel like a big number for me, for the Bucks because they have not been able to execute effectively at any point or cover a big number like this. And Devon Hn could run all over this team. As we've seen, they have not been great at stopping the run. So why aren't we having a bigger conversation about.

Chad (33:33)

Miami? I. I just. I'm with you. You're right. You're spot on. Miami is definitely the side in the spot here. But like I've been talking about this Bucks team, this isn't going to continue. They're going to have a game where they do get right. This, this offense, the weapons they have are just too good. Like what you're saying is true to me for them defensively, right. Miami should be able to run the ball. But you saw that last week. Quinn, yours, he can't complete the ball 10 yards down field. Chef. Like, he's throwing in the double triple team. So I think your idea is sound and right. Like, if this is tua, this would be one of my bigger bets of the Week. I just, I can't be betting this quarterback that can't make completions against a team that is insanely desperate at this point. I mean, talk about a dream scenario to get right. If you were the Bucks, you are now facing one of the worst secondaries in all football like Mike Evans. God, when a Mecca Buka Baker. We've no, we've talked about. Baker's had an injury. This is a no excuse type of game. He should be able to move the ball and pass it all over the field against them. Carolina, we saw in the first half he was in rhythm. The second half you've reverted back to that. We keep talking about this Baker. That's just the 39th out of 39 quarterbacks in the league in EPA per play. He's just, he was horrible. So I think your read is sound. I'm just, I'm with the public here. I'm back in Tampa and I'm taking the five and a half and I've seen actually some pro money. That's why I didn't really talk much about it coming on the books. This did go from five to five and a half and now I'm seeing a couple books move to six. So yeah, it's, it's an interesting game where I think your read is right in the sense that if you want to play that playoff stat we gave out, the Dolphins are technically a 60 play right here. Right? They're. This is the spot you're supposed to take them. But I am totally, totally worried about them just offensively with Queen yours, it feels like they got the call right? Don't put in Zach Wilson. Put in the other kid. Let's. Let's start losing some games here. There's no point of us being 8 and 9. Let's go 6 and 9 or wherever they're trying to get to now. So it's, it just feels like Miami's totally giving up on the.

Simon Hunter (35:29)

Season. I was going to talk about the Giants and the Raiders, the battle for the number one overall pick because the Raiders have now become one point underdogs. They were one and a half point favorites when we spoke on Tuesday, but the news is that Brock Bowers is, is on ir. He's not going to be.

Chad (35:48)

Playing. That's why it.

Simon Hunter (35:49)

Moved. I think that's why it moved. But also the Giants aren't going to have Andrew Thomas and they've got other O line injuries. And the Giants, as we've seen the past couple years, are just a much different team when Andrew Thomas isn't playing. And so are we balancing out sort of the disadvantages when Andrew Thomas isn't playing and Brock Bowers isn't playing and then do we just go with the team we know is going to have the psycho coach who could give a about draft.

Chad (36:18)

Position? Yeah, like to me this is number five or number six for our contest come Sunday. Like I love this game even though I know I shouldn't because there are. I just said there's so many unknowns here and you did see the line flip when the Brock Bowers who's got, you know, came out just because he is so important. I mean he is he coming to the season. He was my number one graded tight end. I think I have him at number two now behind Trey McBride. But still for their value to the spread, they're probably only a handful of Titans even command half a point, let alone a point. And yeah, seeing this flip three points feels like a bit extreme for the Brock Bowers news so I know Raiders are super public side. I I've, I've talked to most bookmakers. They're basically taking a ton of Raiders money. I still think it's the right side. And then that stat I gave out on Tuesday just keeps ringing in my head, right? You have two teams, you know, below 3% win percentage playing this late in the year. It's only happened four times in NFL history I think since 1990. The home team four zero straight up in that exact spot. So you know, the numbers bear it out. I know it's a small sample, but it kind of shows that when there's two bad teams there is a slight home advantage to it. And you know, Chad just gave it out there the now the Giants who already have a bad offense line, now they're down again, their best offensive tackle playing against a D line. As much crap we want to give to the, to the Raiders. That's probably their only strong thing to have defensively and that's what we talk about. Max Crosby gets a pick left or right. He picks whatever side he wants to. So really unique spot here for this Vegas team that I think offensively not that they found something against Houston, but I feel like they did right. They kind of figured out it's just a type of team that, you know, we know they have the weapons. They just never could put it together consistently because their offensive line's so bad. And I know a couple people ask me about that. Do you expect the Giants to be able to take advantage of that? You've seen it with the Giants Their, their biggest weakness, especially against the run, is because they just don't have linebackers. So Genti is the exact type of running back you need that can neutralize a good defensive line. So like I said, this is a game where I don't know how you feel about it right now. I just. As soon as this game came up, I envisioned. Because again, we only could pick out of 11 games for our content. I could easily see this being one of the five, fifth or sixth game we talk about just because it's a game I like and it's just gross enough for us to make another.

Simon Hunter (38:31)

Contest. So I don't, I don't feel that strongly about it. And the rest of the games we're talking about, I think we're all on the fence about. So I'm happy to have it in consideration. Philadelphia at Buffalo. Buffalo was a one point favorite right now. It's come down from two and a half. I think the news is really about Josh Allen. He's been limited in practice because of his foot. And I think also the Eagles have said they're going to play their starters. So talk about, you know, in theory the Eagles kind of have nothing to play for, whereas the Bills actually have something very important to play for. So it's a little bit of a. Turning that stat on its head. You would want to be on the Eagles here. Unfortunately, I've bet into the Bills at two and a half. I bet him at one, I bet him on the money line. So I'm overexposed on the Bills here. I don't feel strongly that we need to. That we need.

Chad (39:31)

To. Sorry, Peter out there at the end. Yeah, I'm right there with you. It's. I, I wanted to be on the Bills. I like this spot a lot for the Bills because what we just talked about, it's a team to me that they're going to be putting the foot on the gas like really want to beat. The Shadow Seagulls team has the head of the playoffs for the Eagles. Those are. Got total letdown spot. Like they've been partying, you know, a couple nights after they won their division and they have a bunch of guys coming back from injuries that I don't know if they're going to play them in this game. Talking about Lane Johnson and Carter. So it's, it's a weird one, Chad, where I was right there with you. I honestly haven't bet anything on the Bills yet. I do think I'm gonna take a position on them. I just been waiting like you to learn more about Josh Allen. Is it the foot? Is it a bad ankle? What is the injury? Is he going to practice? Josh Allen. You know the biggest thing I always talk about is availability. The greatest strength of Josh Allen is he simply does not miss tie. He is one of the toughest guys in this entire league and it's why we all love him, right? Not just the numbers he puts up, but it's just a guy that he takes insane hits. He gets the kicked out of him. Never misses games. He never misses games. He truly is Superman. And I've talked about it, his future. It's gonna be interesting how his life goes. You know how what's Josh Allen gonna be like a 35, 34 after playing the style he's played. He's 29. So to me, if he's good to go, Chad, if he gets cleared, if he gets the shot, I don't mind betting the Bills here but if there is no practice all week for him and he's coming in kind of limp here, it's not great. Like this is a legit good Eagles defensive line that's going to give him problems especially if he's playing on one foot. So this is a game where I thought for sure we'd have it as one of our five. I don't have enough info chat. It might be a game. I just kept avoiding. I don't know if it can be there but I do like I said, I do want to bet on the Bills. Do not like this at all for the Seagulls team. And you know it's. It's gonna be interesting following this injury report all day today because you know, it's Christmas, there's a holiday. So obviously Josh in practice yesterday, I believe we heard he was limited maybe on Wednesday. Yeah, he does a full walk through unlike Lamar. Like Lamar hasn't done anything highly unlike Lamar plays. If we get at least a walk through with Josh Allen, I'll feel much more comfortable betting the Spills team knowing it's gonna be him and not Mitch.

Simon Hunter (41:45)

Trubisky. It's so funny when you said his greatest strength and we don't know what his life is going to be like. I was thinking, well, you know, he's having a baby, he just got married. He's got so much going for him and you're like 34, 35. Can he still be taking these hits? But that's because I've learned to love my.

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Chad (42:07)

Just. He gives me major Elway vibes like you remember Elway's knees at the end of his career. They were just falling off the.

Simon Hunter (42:14)

Bone. The dude could barely.

Chad (42:15)

Walk. Yeah, it just makes me feel the same. It was just like LA was a crazy freak athlete just like Josh Allen or Ben Roethlisberger. Another great comp. Ben was just like him, impossible to take down the pocket. This giant statue. The guy couldn't move from his left to his right then of his career because his knees were just so shot. So I just. That was my only word with Josh Allen. There's nothing else to worry about with him. Right. He is superman. But it's just. How is this. By going to help up this guy Every time they get close in the red zone. It just feels like his body's the battering ran, man. He's just one of a kind. Josh Allen. So it's. It's crazy he's held up this long. Like I said, this injury, it's the only one I can really think of this season that spooked me about him. Right. He's pretty much all season. We just don't know. Is it a broken bone, the foot, is it an ankle? We. Honestly, everything I've read, like I'm looking right now on social media, no one knows. It's people just literally, they. They're just throwing against one, hoping something sticks. No one knows what the real injury is. I honestly think if he is limited and then does the walk through, it's just whatever a bone bruise, I don't think it's anything serious because Josh is the type of guy that he knows, like, he just. He can't miss any games for this.

Simon Hunter (43:15)

Team. Social media is a font of truth, as we all know. Chicago Bears +3 at San Francisco, it got up to three and a.

Chad (43:24)

Half. It.

Simon Hunter (43:25)

Did. And like immediately got bought back down. I don't know, man. Like, I'm so emotionally invested here. Like, it's going to be Sunday night. Hopefully by then I'll be coming out of my Covid stupor and I'll be watching it with my kids and like enjoying it as a family. That acts as if we're from Chicago even though we live in the middle of Connecticut. But every week feels like a letdown spot for the Bears. And every week now feels like the Niners are overrated, especially coming off five touchdowns and everyone acting like Brock Purdy is the mvp. Who could have been. So what do we do here? It's like high point, high point, Buy high, buy high. Everyone's Nvidia in this.

Chad (44:09)

Game. Yeah, it's. It's unfortunate. I can't put Chad down, Chad's Bears down anymore. Saying who. Who have they beaten? Because they have. I mean you look at everybody, right? And they beat playoff teams, right? They beat Pittsburgh, probably gonna playoff team. Beat the Eagles, a playoff team. They be Green Bay who. Because the Lions, they are now a playoff team, right? So you know, as much as you want to get the Bears because all their games come down to the final two minutes, you know they've put it together this season, right? As horrible as their defense has been, what are they leading the league? Chad and turnover rate. Because your quarterback doesn't turn the ball over, your defense gets picked. So they've found their identity like they really did on their Ben Johnson, right? No stupid Turners offensively and defensively. They bend, they give up yards, no doubt about it. But they don't break. They get the turnovers. They hold up in the red zone. So I think this Bears can be an undervalued and just look in the splits too. Like there's a bunch of different books I'm looking at right now. The tickets are pretty even. All the money is on the 49ers. Like the pros clearly and the public have taken a liking to this Niners team. So I think the 3 is right. I've talked about ad nauseam this Niners team. Yes, they've been winning games, but I've been super suspect of this defense just being held together by bubblegum. Like eventually it's going to come back on you. You can't be the worst team in the league on getting pressure on the quarterback and not have it come bite you in the ass once you play. Good teams like the 49ers, they've been getting away with it because they've been insane offensively. I mean, Mac Jones I believe is still the number two. Get number two quarterback in pass rating against playoff teams this season. I think Brock is now number five. So it's like doesn't matter which quarterback has been in, their offense has been humming this season, this Niners team. So I get why the public's coming in on them. They look at this match and they think that they're just going to roll the spares team. But I'm telling you, I think the Bears offensively can keep this close and we've seen it. Purdy does throw those 50, 50 balls every now and then and that's against going to be against a Bears team that loves quarterbacks that do that, right? They're always looking to very take advantage of that and you know, they give these unique looks with the leader, drop back the defensive lineman, whatever it is. They've kind of had these looks where these quarterbacks don't see these type of schemes as Bears teams doing, which is high risk variance. Right. They're leaving guys wide open to double team certain guys where, you know, they have the numbers. They show that like they really did get great against Jalen. Hurts. Right? They're really doubling AJ and they're letting our number three receiver run solo or free because they just knew hurts he was going to look at his first read, especially when he's getting blitzed. So just once again, really impressed by what this Bears team does. I'm. I'm with Chad. Maybe I'm like Chad, I'm too close to it. But if our contest is three and a half, there's no way we avoid this one. There's no way. I just with the hook. I love it. And again, I have this game model at 2. So if I'm getting a point and a half on a team I really like in this Bears team against a 49ers team that I am very suspicious of, I'm going to take that number every time. So yeah, I love this game and it's huge, huge playoff ramifications. This one, this game, shockingly, I can't believe I'm about to say this. This game could easily decide the 1 seed in the NFC. So I, I can't wait to see this Bears team. Man, this is a once in a lifetime type of season if you're a Bears fan. Truly.

Simon Hunter (47:11)

Is. Well, look, we're gonna have to make a call because we also talked about the Rams and that number is going to be eight and a half in the contest. We also, we don't want a Sunday night game and a Monday night game in the contest. So you know what I.

Chad (47:28)

Mean? We'll see if that, that game we can be patient on because like again, one of the more public books now is down to seven and a half. So like I said, the pros, they are coming on Atlanta. I'm more than happy to let that scare us off and we avoid the Rams because I've talked. I'm 30 betting the Rams this song, this, this December. I probably should get off the train. I just can't help it. It's like they just. McVeigh is a covering machine in this month I've talked about it. So I have no issue us backing off that ramp side just because I. Like I said last week in Seattle, I'm too close to it. But at some point we're going to be getting the best of the number. Like this is now seven and a half. I mean, if I had that number at 10, how can I avoid that Rams number? So it's, it's interesting how much love Atlanta is getting. It's just, you know, like Chad talked about Drake, London's back, you know, with Kirk. Should be a game they should be able to keep close against a Rams team that we've seen it now, right. Their, their defense looks like it might be their Achilles heel. They can be run on. They have certain holes in their secondary, this Rams team. So that's, that's a game where I'm not going to force make it one of our five. Chicago. I would force us to make that one of our five. I really have a lot bet on that Chicago.

Simon Hunter (48:37)

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Fox Sports/Total Wireless Advertiser (53:39)

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Chad (53:43)

Live for the biggest moments. Touchdown. And catch this history in the.

Simon Hunter (53:47)

Making. Box.

Timf (53:50)

1. We live for live streaming.

Simon Hunter (53:53)

Now. All right, Simon, biggest.

Chad (53:55)

Bets. Pull up those pants and be a man quick. I'll give out some stats. A lot of people have asked what are the odds of this playoff pool that we have this year? So I basically ran my model. What were the odds before the season of Joe Burrow, Lamar and Patrick Mahomes all missing the playoffs?.007.

Simon Hunter (54:14)

Chad.

Chad (54:15)

Jesus. That's the odds of us having this outcome of this, this season on just the AFC side. So I mean, this is like what I dream of with football. I'm gonna lose, obviously. I'm gonna lose a decent amount of money. The only team I have left, the AFC that I'll win money on is if the Bills make the super bowl and play the Rams or the Eagles. That's. That's the last hope I have. Just because like I've talked about, I just didn't think Drake May or Bo Nicks would be the type of guys I'd have any type of super futures on. And obviously I have some regrets with that one. His favorite stat. I saw teams that missed the playoffs after winning 15 games in the prior season. 2008 New England Patriots. Everyone remembers obviously the torn ACL with Tom Brady. 2016 Carolina Panthers, which makes sense, right? That was kind of a fool's gold. 15 on one Cam Newton team that just fell off, you know, the next season, the 2025 Chiefs and the 2025 Detroit Lions. Wow. Pretty insane, right? Two of them in the same season. Another one I really loved, which was the one seeds. So one seeds to be the one seed the year before and then not make the playoffs since 2000, we had in 2001, Tennessee and the Giants. 2008 New England, the Dallas, 2009 Tennessee and the Giants. Tennessee. That's kind of crazy. Three times. 2022 Tennessee and Green Bay. Then obviously 2025, the Chiefs in Detroit. So it's just really unique, right? We always talk about the window closes pretty quick. Do we think the Chiefs windows closed? No, Detroit. I know the Public has left them for dead. You're a Detroit fan. Get ready for it. I'm going to be betting all of your futures next year. You literally went from the first place schedule to I think next year you get Arizona, Tennessee and the Giants. That's. That's going to be insane when you guys get fully healthy next year. So Detroit fans, I know it's horrible right now. Your lives are just. I get it. Like, that was embarrassing. Probably one of the worst games I've ever seen a quarterback playing. Jared Goff, other than Jalen hurts, obviously with the five turnovers. But yeah, it's. It's just a unique time right now. Football. So, yeah, for me, my biggest bets. Chad, not gonna lie. People haven't bet too heavily into these games, right? I, I bet into the Christmas games because they were so, so early in the week. Houston, I'm probably going to take on my larger positions on. Just because it's tomorrow and like I want to be there with it. Seattle, I've been patient. I've been hoping to get to six and a half. If I start seeing it tinker back up to seven and a half, I will go very heavy on Seattle at seven. I'm just hoping to get the six and a half. I really hope that number gets bet down. The professionals. Cleveland. No surprises, people. The three and a half. The threes. I've bet pretty heavy into it and I just have a feeling come Sunday, this Bear side at the plus three, it's gonna be one of my bigger bets. So. Yeah, I really like the dogs this weekend. I didn't say it because I'm not. I'm. I'm making myself now. I can make it one of my bigger bets, but I'm, I'm very tempted here on Vegas with them being plus one and a half. It's just. I can't believe that line's not a pick, let alone them minus one on. So Vegas could get there for, for right now though, just the two sides are really lit up on his Cleveland and most likely Houston. My dog likes your.

Simon Hunter (57:25)

Dog. Your dog likes my dog. Our underdog parlay. I feel like we're giving ourselves an opportunity here. Houston. The.

Chad (57:35)

Bears. Yeah, you gotta go. Bears.

Simon Hunter (57:38)

Tennessee.

Chad (57:39)

Tennessee.

Simon Hunter (57:40)

Cleveland.

Chad (57:41)

Cleveland. Simple rounded off. Let's just go. The.

Simon Hunter (57:45)

Vegas. Oh, yeah, Vegas. And then the favorites a little tougher.

Chad (57:51)

Shockingly. But Seattle. Right. I mean, people probably won't hear this in time, but I would put Green Bay in there. I think they won't hear it in time, unfortunately. Yeah, Tampa. Chad, can we how do we not put Tampa's money.

Simon Hunter (58:04)

Line? Tampa.

Chad (58:05)

Rams. Yeah, Rams. I mean, I do two and a half on the Rams for that one. And even though we don't know yet, but I just want to do it because it's good value. It feels like we have to do the.

Simon Hunter (58:15)

Bills. Yeah. All right. Underdog parlay. We're doing. Who did we say we did? Houston, the Bears, Tennessee, Tennessee, Cleveland and the Raiders favorites. Parlay. We're doing Seattle, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, the Rams and the Bills. Sharp versus Square, my friend. Last week I think we both won, actually. I had.

Chad (58:43)

Tennessee. I think it's just you. I had Bills ten and a half. Ten minus.

Simon Hunter (58:47)

Ten. All right, who do you.

Chad (58:49)

Got? You don't want to go.

Simon Hunter (58:51)

First? All right, I'll go first. Give me.

Chad (58:54)

Tennessee. I'll go Cleveland. Give me Cleveland.

Simon Hunter (58:58)

+3. You're taking Cleveland even though there are brass balls. That's why. Because they were our.

Chad (59:05)

Fastballs. True, true. You know, I'll be the man here. I'll do what Chad should have done. Give me Chicago plus.

Simon Hunter (59:12)

Three. There you go. I like it. I like it. All right. Sharp versus Square. I'm taking Tennessee. Simon is taking the Chicago Bears. This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume Podcast Network. We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube on Sunday morning as you eavesdrop on an intimate conversation between me and Simon. We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube Sunday night. To recap all of that misery from Sunday, watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods rate, review, subscribe, Leave us. Five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love.

Fox Sports/Total Wireless Advertiser (59:55)

You. Come on, baby. One.

Simon Hunter (59:58)

Time. One time. One time, baby. One time. One.

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Chad (60:43)

Y'.

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All. This is that classic HBCU vibe. Non stop action. The band is rocking and the crowd lit. Chance echo, drum beat. Everybody showing that school pride game like.

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Simon Hunter (61:01)

Changer. Right.

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There. Yeah, that taste always hits the right note, just like the band at halftime. And just like that, we're back at it. Passionate fans, school colors everywhere, and an ice cream cold Coca Cola. That's a winning combo no matter the sport, no matter the yard. Everybody knows fan work is thirsty work, so grab a Coca Cola and keep that HBCU pride.

Halion Advertiser (61:26)

Going. Everybody has goals, and every goal starts with an assist, whether it's on the field or off. That's why Halion is teaming up with US Soccer to launch for the Assist. It's a new campaign that celebrates those everyday acts of support that help people achieve their goals. As the makers of trusted brands like Advil, Centrum, Tum, Sensodyne and Voltaren, Halion knows how to support everyday wellness goals. To learn more, go to helionassist.com.

Unrivaled Basketball Announcer (61:56)

Season 2 of Unrivaled Basketball is here and the talent is unreal. The best women's players on the planet are running it back with even bigger moments and bigger stakes. Don't miss as Paige Becker's Nafiza College, Collier, Kelsey Plumb, Brianna Stewart and more take the court and redefine the game. This isn't your regular season. This is unrivaled, where the pace is faster, the energy is higher and every athlete shines. Unrivaled basketball Season 2, sponsored by Samsung Galaxy, tips off January 5 on TNT, TruTV and.

Public Investing Advertiser (62:25)

HBO. Max support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index. With AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like EFTs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public com.

Chad (63:35)

Disclosures. This is an iHeart.

Simon Hunter (63:37)

Podcast. Guaranteed.