Sharp or Square – NFL Week 17 Bets (December 26, 2025)

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter (iHeartPodcasts and The Volume)
Date: December 26, 2025
Episode Theme:
Betting expert Chad Millman and professional sports gambler Simon Hunter break down the upcoming NFL Week 17 slate, analyzing numbers, public vs. sharp action, and which bets are “sharp” (smart/professional) or “square” (mainstream/public). They review notable moves, favorites vs. underdogs, and contest strategy, with actionable insights and personal picks.

Overview

The hosts deliver a comprehensive analysis of the critical games and betting dynamics for NFL Week 17. They dive into pro (sharp) vs. public (square) betting trends, highlight must-watch games with playoff implications, and debate sides, totals, and contest strategy. With both insight and humor, the episode is a deep-dive into advanced sports betting thought-processes, nuanced market movements, and personal philosophies.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Holiday Underdog Domination [03:07]

• Chad: Recaps a string of upset wins by underdogs in holiday games, noting surprising results and how public perception may lag behind the on-field reality.
  • “Holiday games… Underdogs on the holidays: 7-0. Pretty, pretty crazy.” (03:07)
• Contest Recap: Push on Dallas, wins on Minnesota and Chiefs, but lost the moneyline parlay.

2. Boxing Day & Personal Updates [04:02-05:45]

• Banter about Boxing Day, American holiday culture, and both hosts working through the holidays despite illness.
  • “I might need to run for president just on those two basis. Give us the day off after Christmas and the day off after the Super Bowl.” – Simon (04:17)
• Both hosts share personal stories: Chad with Covid and missing family, Simon working through it.

3. Sharp Call: Where Pros and Joes Diverge [05:55-09:20]

• Feedback from Professional Bettors:
  • Texans bet: Both hosts and pros agree; fading the Chargers O-line is key.
  • Ravens/Packers: Pros initially liked Packers at +2.5, but cooled after Lamar Jackson injury news.
  • Eagles/Bills: Pros favor Eagles (Eagles playing starters), but public (and hosts) lean Bills.
  • Colts/Jaguars: Pros love the Colts, but Simon prefers the Jags – “I just think the Jags are a much better team.” (07:56)
  • Titans/Saints: Pros and public aligned on the Titans; “definition of pros versus Joes.”
  • Browns/Steelers: Early sharp money on Browns; line has dropped as public joined in.
  • Seahawks/Panthers: Pros are on Seattle, some sharps bought Panthers +7.5/+7 – game is “dragged back and forth.” (08:27)
  • Rams/Falcons: Pros love the Falcons, Simon is staunchly on the Rams and doubled down as line hit +7/+7.5.

4. Deep Dives into Select Games

Texans @ Chargers [09:20-12:51]

• Both love the Texans, betting at +2.5 and moneyline.
  • “D’Amico Ryans: 16% ROI as an outright underdog as a head coach. But this is all about betting against the Chargers’ offensive line.” – Simon (09:33)
• Herbert’s play given context (injuries, lost tackles); why public may be overvaluing Chargers off selective results.

Seahawks @ Panthers [12:59-16:46]

• Simon heavily on Seattle; sees talent gap.
• Panthers keep games close but model projections have Seattle covering 7+ “about 55-57% of the time.”
• “Sam Darnold, when he’s been a favorite of -7 or more, 12 times in his career, he’s 9-3 ATS, 12-0 straight up.” – Simon (15:57)
• Panthers seen as undervalued, but concern they may suffer a letdown with Bucs up next.

Jaguars @ Colts [16:46-21:03]

• Chad on Colts +6.5 (home dog off blowout more than a field goal: “61% ATS” [16:59]), sees the Jags as overvalued.
• Simon: Jags’ offense is rolling, hard to fade, “Jags have always found a way to cover and beat this Colts team.”
• Pros supporting Chad’s sharp side, betting line down to +5.5 for Colts.

Saints @ Titans [25:42-28:49]

• Titans opened +3.5, bet down to +2.5, wiseguys on Tennessee, but “ticket count” starting to skew public.
• Simon, once “banned” from betting Titans, now believes “the early read on Tennessee is right.”
• Likes the test for Saints’ rookie Shuck: “If the Saints win, Shuck is legit – or my model is off.” [26:46]

Browns @ Steelers [29:16-32:44]

• Line movement from +4.5 to +3 for Cleveland as sharps joined early pro money.
• Miles Garrett going for sack record; Pittsburgh may rest starters if Ravens lose Saturday.
• “This is going to be the Miles Garrett party… love the irony if it’s Mason Rudolph at QB.” – Simon (31:03)
• Stat: “Bet on a team with nothing to play for vs. a team with something at stake in last two weeks: 61% ATS.” – Chad (29:59)
• Both like Browns; contest “brass balls bet” of the week.

Bucs @ Dolphins [32:54-35:29]

• Chad surprised there’s little discussion; thinks Dolphins are live.
• Simon: “Miami should be able to run the ball. But Baker, 39th out of 39 QBs in EPA per play, so brutally inconsistent that it’s hard to trust Tampa in this spot.” (34:23)
• Some pro money on Bucs; Simon still prefers Tampa +5.5.

Giants @ Raiders [35:29-38:31]

• Brock Bowers out for Raiders is a key reason for line movement, Max Crosby a game-changer vs. Giants’ depleted OL.
• “When there’s two bad teams, slight home advantage. Home team 4-0 straight up in that spot since 1990.” – Simon (37:37)
• Contest consideration due to limited quality options.

Eagles @ Bills [38:31-41:45]

• Bills open -2.5, now closer to -1. Josh Allen’s foot injury a concern, Eagles expected to play starters.
  • “Biggest strength of Josh Allen is availability… he is Superman.” – Chad (40:28)
• Both hesitant on side without more injury news.

Bears @ 49ers [43:15-47:11]

• Line briefly hit +3.5; both tempted by Bears as live dog, contest priority.
  • “This Bears team can be undervalued. As horrible as their defense has been, they lead the league in turnover rate.” – Simon (44:09)
• Public and pro money lean Niners, but hosts model game at SF -2; will take Bears +3.5 if available.

Rams @ Falcons [47:11-48:37]

• Line trends from Rams +8.5 to +7.5 as pros hit Atlanta.
• Simon rides McVay’s December ATS streak: “McVay is a covering machine in this month.”
• Both see Atlanta love in the market but hesitant to force Rams into contest if number drops.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Underdogs on the holidays: 7-0. Pretty, pretty crazy.” – Chad (03:07)
• “I might need to run for president just on those two basis. Give us the day off after Christmas and the day off after the Super Bowl.” – Simon (04:17)
• “D’Amico Ryans: 16% ROI as an outright underdog as a head coach. But this is all about betting against the Chargers’ offensive line.” – Simon (09:33)
• “Sam Darnold, when he’s been a favorite of -7 or more, 12 times in his career, he’s 9-3 ATS, 12-0 straight up.” – Simon (15:57)
• “This is going to be the Miles Garrett party. And I love the irony… if it is going to be Mason Rudolph being the quarterback that he gets the sack record against.” – Simon (31:03)
• “Bet on a team with nothing to play for versus a bet on a team with something to play for in the last two weeks of the season: 61% against the spread.” – Chad (29:59)
• “This Bears team can be undervalued... they lead the league in turnover rate. Because your quarterback doesn’t turn the ball over, your defense gets picks.” – Simon (44:09)
• “Biggest strength of Josh Allen is availability… he gets the kicked out of him, never misses games. He truly is Superman.” – Chad (40:28)

Recommended Bets & Contest Sides

| Game | Side (Sharp/Square) | Notable Comments | |-----------------------------|----------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------| | Texans @ Chargers | Texans +2.5 / ML (Sharp) | “Love the moneyline. D-line mismatch is huge.” | | Seahawks @ Panthers | Seahawks -7 / -7.5 (Sharp) | “Seattle’s defensive front is a difference-maker.” | | Jaguars @ Colts | Colts +6.5 (Sharp) / Jags (Sim) | “Home dog off blowout angle; pros support Colts.” | | Saints @ Titans | Titans +2.5 (Sharp) | Sharp money but possibly turning ‘public dog’ | | Browns @ Steelers | Browns +3 (Sharp, ‘Brass balls’) | “Fade Tomlin as road favorite. Miles Garrett.” | | Bucs @ Dolphins | Lean Tampa +5.5 | “Pros have nibbled; Bucs need get-right spot.” | | Giants @ Raiders | Raiders -1.5 (Lean; Home dog) | “Home edge in bad-vs-bad late season matchups.” | | Eagles @ Bills | Wait for injury news; lean Bills | “If Allen full go, Bills are preferred side.” | | Bears @ 49ers | Bears +3 (+3.5 in contest) | “Great contest option; Bears are undervalued.” | | Rams @ Falcons | Rams +7.5 or better (Sharp) | “If number stays high, McVay’s December ATS streak.”|

“Underdog Parlay” Picks [57:25]

• Houston (Texans)
• Chicago (Bears)
• Tennessee (Titans)
• Cleveland (Browns)
• Vegas (Raiders)

“Favorites Parlay” Picks [58:05]

• Seattle (Seahawks)
• Green Bay (Packers)
• Tampa Bay (Bucs)
• Rams
• Bills

Sharp vs. Square Segment [58:49]

• Simon’s pick: Chicago Bears +3 (Square)
• Chad’s pick: Tennessee Titans (Sharp)

Additional Insight & Fun Facts

• Historic betting stats:
  • “Teams that missed the playoffs after winning 15 games in the prior season: 2008 Patriots, 2016 Panthers, 2025 Chiefs, 2025 Lions.” – Chad (54:14)
  • Noted stat: Home team is 4-0 straight up in late-season bad-team matchups.
• QBs & Injuries: Ongoing impact of Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen uncertainty.
• Playoff Picture: Detroit Lions and Chiefs’ stunning downfall; forecast optimism for Detroit futures next year.

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [03:07] – Holiday underdog trend / recap
• [05:55] – Start of “Sharp Call” segment (feedback from pro bettors)
• [09:20] – Texans @ Chargers deep dive
• [12:59] – Seahawks @ Panthers breakdown
• [16:46] – Jaguars @ Colts debate
• [25:42] – Saints @ Titans analysis
• [29:16] – Browns @ Steelers, “brass balls” pick
• [32:54] – Bucs @ Dolphins brief
• [35:29] – Giants @ Raiders contest discussion
• [38:31] – Eagles @ Bills injury impact
• [43:15] – Bears @ 49ers breakdown
• [47:11] – Rams @ Falcons line movement
• [57:25] – Underdog parlay picks
• [58:49] – Sharp vs. Square picks

Summary

This episode is packed with actionable NFL Week 17 betting analysis, highlighting sharp/public splits, line movement logic, situational betting angles, and favorite sides for both personal wagers and contest strategy. The hosts provide commentary grounded in data and humor, with plenty of contest-relevant debate and strong advocacy for being aware of sharp (professional) market dynamics.

If you listened to just one handicapping episode this week—this one sets you up with numbers, context, and conviction.