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Chad Millman
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rod that we are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper, makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I'm joined as always by my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better, my co host, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
Simon Hunter
Chad. Happy New Year to you, my friend. How you doing?
Chad Millman
Happy New Year to you. Happy New Year to Matt Mitchell. Happy New Year to all of our friends and listeners and watchers who have spent the season with us, who found us anew in the Sharper Square world, who came with us from the old world. We are incredibly appreciative and lucky as we kick off 2026. Good Lord. 2026.
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it doesn't sound real yet. I, I definitely had one of those moments last night. We're just saying out loud. I turned to my friend, I said, it is weird every time you hear that. We're closer now to 2050 than we are to the year 2000. The year 2000 doesn't feel.
Chad Millman
Oh, my God.
Simon Hunter
The year 2050 sounds like a different lifetime. So it's kind of a mind right now thinking about that.
Chad Millman
2050 is cosmic, dude. I, I don't even know how that it. Well, let's see. 2050. I. I can't even say how old I'll be. Simon, you might be. You might be doing this show on your own by then.
Simon Hunter
I doubt it. Chad. I keep saying people like you that live on bird feed, they live to 120 in all my clogged arteries.
Chad Millman
I'm not even going to say it. All I know is that in. I'm not even going to say 2050, 80. I can't even, I can't even see the number. I, I won't be 80. I won't be that far off.
Simon Hunter
I mean, you really want to know? I'll be your age, basically.
Chad Millman
Dude, you'll be older than me.
Simon Hunter
I'll. I'll basically be right around 60.
Chad Millman
Yeah, but I'm not, I'm not 60.
Simon Hunter
I know. It's just fun making fun of you.
Chad Millman
That's hurtful. Those are hurtful things to say as we kick off the new year as BFFs. Hey, listen, today, no matter where you are, no matter what you're doing, we are all Hoosiers. That's all I'm going to say. Except I'm also going to say for those who are like, grappling with Indiana's college football dominance. Welcome to the club. If you're. If you're joining us in Hoosier nation, you're wondering what a Hoosier is. I wish I could tell you. I took an entire class on it when I went to Indiana University. I still don't know. It could be some nickname from a poem a guy in Indiana wrote. It could be a saying from jolly old England, Simon. About like depicting strength and woodsman. It could be because a guy who owned a lot of land in the state of Indiana was named John Hoosier and everyone who worked for him called themselves Hoosiers. It doesn't matter today, Simon. You're a Hoosier. Matt Mitchell is a Hoosier. I'm a Hoosier. Go iu. Fight, fight. Fight.
Simon Hunter
What about this trend, Chad? The trend of. What is it?
Chad Millman
Don't like it.
Simon Hunter
Teams off a buy in the college.
Chad Millman
Playoffs do not like what I've seen so far with the teams getting the buys. It's not a good trend at all, Simon. We saw it again last night with Ohio State losing to Miami. Great game by Miami. Hopefully Kurt Signetti gets to repeat the words of Miami coach that he said last night.
Simon Hunter
And. But hats off to our guys for being some tough ass sons of.
Chad Millman
Tough ass sons of bitches. That's what we are for doing a Week 18 episode on Thursday on New Year's Day in the morning. Because we are dedicated, we're professional, we're gonna do our stinking job. Tough ass sons of.
Simon Hunter
Yeah, we both should be up on a couch right now watching Stranger Things, getting ready for this college football day. But instead, the never ending wheel that is the NFL continues to roll, my friend. We got to get to it.
Chad Millman
No, Simon, we should be on the peloton working off the olive oil cake that we ate last night. All right, reminder. Subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube. Apple Pods, Spotify. Let's get into this. Every week we give our picks every week, even in the holiday season. Simon's fellow professional betters, the wise guys, are going to give us some feedback. So let's get to it. Let's hear some sharp calls.
Simon Hunter
I have to answer this phone.
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Simon Hunter
Rain ring, telephone ring Somebody said baby, what you doing? Yeah. As always, let's start where we differ. The pros absolutely love Chicago. Most guys I've talked to have taken a position on Chicago. They even like Chicago at the minus three. So they totally think Chicago's are a much better team than Detroit. Right Now a team that is playing for that two seed, they think they're gonna be massively motivated and they've been betting it just thinking that exact way. So that one actually pretty, pretty shocked me. I thought Detroit would be the pro side, the public would be over the Bears. But it seems like the public and the pros are lined up on this Bears team. Another game. I think it's just not on our radar or maybe I'm just missing it. I wanted to be on Dallas. Every pro I've talked to, they love the Giants here in this spot. They love Dart and what he can do offensively against a Cowboys defense that's just atrocious, especially against running quarterbacks. So I found it really interesting. So many pros think that's gonna be a close one. And yeah, that number is a couple times touched four again, just got a mainly bet back down to three and a half. A lot of books. So really interesting. A game that I might simply just be missing. Seattle Seahawks. I cannot believe the pros are hammering Sam Darnold as a favorite on the road in a must win to get the one seed type of game. But they are. I mean, most guys I talk to really like that spot and they just think this 49ers team is truly a house of cards. How. How much longer can Purdy in this offense prop up this 49ers team is kind of their view of it. And if you're looking for a team that maybe can stop this juggernaut of an offense, the 49ers, it would be this Seattle defense, right. That's been so dominant on the road. So really interesting game where I thought all of us would be lined up on them and it's pretty split for what we did get right. Panthers like we talked about all week, you know, that came down for three and a half to three now down to two and a half. That's a really smart, sharp side. And I'm glad the pros are on it because I was a little worried when I saw how much money was pouring on that Bucks team. It's like, what am I missing here? But I think we see this number keep dropping. It makes me feel better as our position and you know, another game we haven't spent too much time on. But I think is an interesting move by the professionals. Is that Chargers game the pros have just been hammering the Chargers.
Chad Millman
Yes.
Simon Hunter
And the number really has not budged. So that's going to be an interesting topic to talk about. Where are the books? Simply just missing it. Are they overrating too much the the backups for this Chargers team and they're clearly taking a stand here. The the books and you know, I don't think the public this is a game they're ever going to mess with. I truly think this is just a professionals versus the books type of game. Right. The most, you know, Joe public betters, they're not going to bet too big on the NFL this weekend. So a lot of the money when you see big money simply on one side most times if it's a game like this, like a 12 and a half point spread, this is going to be professional money. It's not going to be the type of game the public talk touches here. So I really should see where that number goes, Chad, because the like I said, the books have taken a stand now. They're holding firm on that 12 and a half game. We love saints plus three. Plus three and a half. It's I knew that would be the pro side. It's going to be interesting what happens now. We just got word before the show Olave is going to miss this game. See where that number goes. Maybe we get fours four and a half. I know there's going to be some pros on the other side of this. It's just them. They basically took Atlanta two and a half and they've not touched it since. So it really is just if you're getting the three, three and a half. That's a professional side of my opinion on the Saints. And you know the last one we talked a little bit about at Minnesota, we've seen that number a couple books get up to seven and a half that keeps coming back down. So you know there is some a little bit of resistance but I hope people listen. Got the five and a half, got the six and a half on Minnesota that was definitely the sharp side. I don't think we see it go below seven at this point. So it's a wonky week. I'll have maybe a little bit more calls come Sunday morning. But just with the holiday it throws it off a little bit because most pros I know, especially professional groups, they're really focused on the college, the college bowl games and the playoffs. Once that, once those games are over, that's when they start taking larger positions come NFL on Saturday and Sunday. So I'll definitely have more info hopefully Sunday morning.
Chad Millman
All right. So everyone check it out. Sunday morning. We're on the air. YouTube Watch it.
Simon Hunter
That excited.
Chad Millman
Sharper Square. I'm really excited about this Carolina game. We've been Hitting it since it was three and a half last Sunday. They are now two and a half at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Simon the Carolina Panthers are going to be our brass balls bet of the week presented by Hard Rock. Bep.
Simon Hunter
You know what it takes.
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It takes brass balls.
Chad Millman
To me it came down to this and the Chargers and I'm glad you brought up the Chargers and sharp calls because I do want to talk about them later in the show. Really intriguing matchup to me but I feel like we would have been doing our listeners a poor service, a disservice if we didn't just ride with the Carolina Panthers in a spot where they are coming off a loss. They are on the road. They can fulfill their destiny that we have been predicting for two years of winning the dreadful. Nobody cares about it. NFC south. Like how do we not stick to our guns and go with the Carolina Panthers especially And a trend. Three weeks ago we're on them. Two weeks ago we're off them. This week we're on them. Let's just be consistent. Let's do everyone service and be on the right side of history with the Carolina Panthers plus two and a half.
Simon Hunter
Yeah, we love betting history as well. Just the uniqueness of this right. This will be give out the stat one more time. Carolina 70 against the spread after a straight up loss covering almost 12 points per game in this exact spot since 1990 no team has ever gone 80 against the spread after a straight up loss. So like you said, we're betting on history here. Can never avoid it. Really unique spot with this Panthers team. And yeah I, I really found it interesting just about what I gave out that home record with Baker, just about how bad he is in this exact spot at home and the fact that you know, in his career 5 and 14 at home and against divisional foes since he's moved all these different teams. So since 2020 he's 2 and 12 against the spread against home divisional foes. So as a favor we talk, we just do not back Baker. We like to fade Baker. We like to back him as a dog. Little did we know he would be going through one of the most historical worst streaks ever against the spread. We have made money luckily off of it. But my guy looking back, there were so many signs that this was just a crumbling house and the start of the year. They were so hot. They were so good to us because we were winning on them. I think we're not late to the party with this Bucks team but you know we've been a little Hesitant in certain matchups to fade them. Here we're both aligned where we're like, okay, we want to fade Baker. We really want it back to Panthers. And we said this probably should be closer to a pick. There's not much that separates these two teams of this standpoint. So the fact that you're still getting the Baker feels like tax. Like they're still. The books are still giving Baker that point, point and a half because he is the better quarterback. I think we're getting a steal here. Like the Panthers, you know, coming off 54 yards by Bryce Young.
Chad Millman
Yeah.
Simon Hunter
Like I said, this is. This is. This exact thing he does. He plays possum. They're terrible one week. The next week, he's throwing for what was a 350 against the Rams. Like a juggernaut. It just. It's just so up and down this season. So, yeah, I love that we're ending the season with our team. The Panthers give it to us plus two and a half.
Chad Millman
You know, Simon, we had some friends over last night, and I got a lot of comments this week from listeners about your immediate reaction when I said, rico Tower needs seven yards. And you're like, no, no, I can't do a whole show where you're talking about this.
Simon Hunter
Seven yards.
Chad Millman
Yeah, seven yards. I just want to point out I did bet Rico Dowdle 25 plus yards rushing and parlay it with Rico Dowdle, his anytime touchdown. Because the anytime touchdown odds are about plus 117. If you parlay it with his 25 plus yards, you're getting it for plus 130. So that was my point.
Simon Hunter
Yeah. I think I had two different people walk up to me and say, hey, Rico, Dado has got a bad hamstring. He might not play this week.
Chad Millman
He's playing. He's. He's full participant.
Simon Hunter
If the difference is seven yards to make, what is it, A million dollars in incentives. You have to take the shot. Yeah. You have to at least get two or three carriers. Try to get that seven yards. That might be a stretch, but the seven yards, he's got it.
Chad Millman
I love that people were coming up to you in the book.
Simon Hunter
Why tell me this guy's hurt?
Chad Millman
Yeah, I just thought, yeah, that is just great. God bless our listeners. The freaking best. Hey, Matt Mitchell, I didn't put this in the script, but we should throw up Seattle and San Francisco just because Simon mentioned it. Because I didn't think we were going to play it in the contest.
Simon Hunter
We can't. Right? It's Saturday.
Chad Millman
Right. We can't play it in the contest. So, like, I'm a little surprised, too. I. I understand sort of where the wise guys are coming from. And we talked a little bit about this on Tuesday. They're very clear distinctions here. Either you believe in Kyle Shanahan as an underdog and you believe in what he's been able to prove with his team at home as an underdog, or you believe in Mike McDonald and what he's been able to prove with this defense on the road and being so dominant. So I understand why the wise guys are backing the Seahawks. At the end of the day, I think you and I both just feel better backing Brock Purdy and Kyle Shanahan than ultimately backing Sam Darnold.
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And we talked. This is another historical game, right? Since 1990, only one other time has the 49ers had a win percentage above 75% and been a home dog. And it's very unique. I went back and looked it up. 2011, 2012 playoffs Drew Brees, Saints 49ers won 36 to 32. So not much historical data we have to go off of, but that just shows you that, you know, it's a unique spot for this Niners team. They're not really dogs at home. And I gave you all those crazy Brock Purdy stats in his career against the Seahawks team in his career, six and one straight up when he's been under three points or less, he's three. Zero straight up. And against the spread at home, you know, we just. There's something about this 49ers team, especially at home, and knowing that this is kind of the way it's been with Shanahan. Like we talked before the year, we both like the niners to be the 1 seed at plus 900 in the NFC, and it really was because their schedule was easy. But we've talked all the time about the up and down of the Niners. They're just the seesaw team. They come in fourth place the next year, they come in first place. They get healthy the next year, they have a ton of injuries. This year they've had the injuries. I mean, that's why Shannon's up for coach of the year number two right now in the voting, or I should say in the odds, because they've done it with all these injuries. I mean, it's incredible what the Niners have been able to do with those injuries. So I get why the pros are taking their position on the Seahawks. Right. I blindly bet the Seahawks team all year on the road because they're just a covering machine. The coach gets this defense up. You know, Mike McDonald is also, I think maybe number three, number four in coach of the year odds just because it's been incredible, right?
Chad Millman
Yeah.
Simon Hunter
Got his quarterback and really has changed his defense. And at the end of the day, me and you were a line Chad. The reason we like this 49ers team is we just do not trust Sam Darnold. And you've seen it. The numbers back it up. These last five, six weeks, he's been very disappointed. I think he's number one or number two in the league in fumbles. He's just been.
Chad Millman
Yeah, turnover machine.
Simon Hunter
Yeah, he's been really up and down and the defense has kind of bailed him out and saved him. So you're basically. If you're back in shelter, you are simply back in that defense. And I think we're both more comfortable back in Purdy, the Snyder's offense and they've been there, done that, Right. Purdy's been to Super Bowls. He's lived up these kind of moments in his. In his career. So I know it's crazy. Unique spot getting the Niners the dog. It does feel like we're the suckers here, but like I said, it's. I think the pros are missing this one. Back in the Seahawks, you know, I think this is finally the time the hop off the train after we kind of got away with one last week when they were 7 1/2 point favorites.
Chad Millman
Speaking of suckers, back in the old 1800 days when Indiana was first defining itself as the Hoosier State, they called their border rivals in Illinois the suckers. True story. Thank you for your attention to that matter.
Simon Hunter
Oh, my God. I'm gonna let you have your moment, though, because you're right. Hoosiers, you guys are number one right now, baby. Today it might not end that way, but today as we sit here right now, it's.
Chad Millman
I'm gonna enjoy it. Listen, people. People dismiss the Midwest. They don't understand the laws and culture of the Midwest. You know, I'm. I'm married to a woman who's from New York City, who grew up in Staten island, who looks at everything as a flyover state, even though she went to Michigan, but she sees that as like an anomaly. Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Matt Mitchell's current home state. Those states don't matter to people, but they matter to me. Okay? So today we are going to give them their due.
Simon Hunter
I would say Chris Farley changed my opinion about the Midwest. That's why I will say that, man, I did not think there was a sense of humor in that cluster. But Chris Farley, he opened my eyes.
Chad Millman
It's all sense of humor. It's all kindness and sense of humor in the Midwest.
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Chad Millman
New Orleans plus three and a half at Atlanta actually move down to three now, even with the Aladdin news because everybody has been piling in from the wise guy perspective on the Saints. And as you noted, this is a wise guy week. It's not a huge public week, but man, Atlanta's been playing great. To me, this is really about Tyler Shuck Rookie of the year game and I don't love, I don't love that a lot of his out. And we'll know so much more about Tedro McMillan who's right now. The odds on favorite from the day before could have a huge impact on what happens with Tyler Shuck.
Simon Hunter
Yeah, and it's brutal losing a lobby. Like he's just been brutal so good and it feels like every time they draw up some type of play for him to get one on one and he just automatic feels like in the end zone with Shook. They just had such great chemistry, especially down the stretch here. And you know, maybe like I said, maybe I'm too biased, too close to. I'm just happy at least see that pros are actually betting the same side with me because not gonna lie, I got a little worried when I got up to three and a half. I go, oh my God, now they're giving us the hook on this. I could not believe that Kirk was now minus three and a half at home. But Kirk gotta give him props like going through the tape watching these last couple weeks. You know he's gonna still have this Kirk games where he just is so immobile in the pocket. He looks so totally lost against the right type of defense. But overall I gotta give him a ton of props the way he's been playing down the stretch here. And I think he's earned the right to be a starter next season might not be for Atlanta, but some team. You got to give this guy a chance at this point. Like he totally has come back from this Achilles injury where you know, last year we talked about he couldn't even push off his back foot. I Watch a tape. He's pushing off that back foot. No problem. He's stepping into throws, really good throws downfield. So matchup wise for us with the Saints team. What I'm trying to hang my hat on is what we talk a little bit about is, you know, they're actually pretty good against the past. Their weakness has been the rush. And as much as love and everything Robinson's getting in this, you know, what he just did in two primetime games back to back. The last time they played, the Saints did really well at balling up Bijan Robinson. Like they're. They're a team that obviously they see him twice a year and they have so his entire career. You know, we always talk divisional teams. They have a different read on these in these type of games. So. All right. I do think there are ways for them, the Saints, to attack defensively. And we've already talked about shuck. People might think he's dead in these games, and he just always finds a way to come back. He's been that way since he's been a starter where, you know, he just keeps on slinging it. And that game against Tennessee where they down 13, they never looked worried. He kept pushing the ball downfield and obviously we got lucky, right? They were kind of dead. And all of a sudden Ward got strip sacked for that touchdown. That brought spark to that Saints team. But, you know, the Saints have always found a way since Chuck's become the starter to find ways to win. So. Plus three and a half with this kid and this offense, the way they've been moving the ball, I feel like we always have the opportunity to get the back door here. So I really. I really was hoping that maybe I could talk myself out of this one if it stayed at two and a half. But the fact that it's three and a half, never going to avoid it. Love this number for this Saints team. They've just been absolute covering machine down the stretch here.
Chad Millman
Simon, I think what you're saying about Kirk Cousins when you watch him on film right now and the way he's able to push off is you like that. Do you get it?
Simon Hunter
I do, but I thought it was gonna be another Hoosier reference. I'm kind of heartbroken. I thought you're gonna bring it back to the Hoosier.
Chad Millman
I'll find a way.
Simon Hunter
You need.
Chad Millman
Don't. Don't you worry. It's 2026, my friend. New Year, same sense of humor. Don't worry about me because I'm so old, I can't Change, right.
Simon Hunter
Can change. Your body DNA totally changes every seven years. I believe it totally redust. You can change that. You choose not to change. Unfortunately, that's the problem.
Chad Millman
Well, now you really do sound like my wife. Cleveland at Cincinnati. Cincinnati is a 7 1/2 point favorite. I don't see how we're walking away from this like the in the last 48 hours. I love this game even more. I might bet some outlines in Cincinnati. I just think they're going to go out there and fling it. They don't give a shit. They can say they're building on next year. It doesn't matter. Joe Burrow just wants to go out and have a good time and play some ball and end the year on a high note and sling it to Jamar Chase and 4210. That's my call now.
Simon Hunter
Did something happen that made you like it more? You just like it because you like it more.
Chad Millman
I like it because I like it more.
Simon Hunter
I don't know if I missed. Missed something, but yeah, I. I'm right there with you. Like I talked, this is the exact type of game that Cincinnati just goes all out, plays hard. Their offense has been rolling. I know they did have that horrible game like you said, you know, Joe Burrow was contemplating a life and if he's happy or not, and then went out and totally put up zero against a Ravens defense that has been suspect all season. Since then, he's, you know, he's been lighted up and that's just what we expected. Joe Burrow when he's got Chase Higgins both playing, it's an offense that's an absolute juggernaut. The only thing it's been missing was the blocking. And you know, I keep talking about the offensive line. You can look at the numbers since Joe Flacco took over. They've been a top 15 some weeks. Top 10 offensive line of pass protection, which is just blowing my mind when I look at this team. And it really has been the interior, like the guards have been playing better. Everything. Just really impressive how the Bengals have turned around that offensive line. And if you're a Bengals fan, maybe another thing you could picture Joe bro to be like, got to come back next year, right? The offense line, we've totally rebuilt. It's better where it felt like two weeks ago his foot was kind of out the door, like he was leaving it open to be like I can move on potentially next year where I think he would come back. This is the exact type of game where we talked about Chad. This is the type of game. They'll win big to kind of launch off into the off season of like see momentum. We ended the season. This is what we can be. And I'll give up the stat one more time. This Browns team off a straight up win since last year.06 against the spread, losing those games by almost 11 points per game. So they're not covering by 11 points per game. I should say so. They've just been absolutely terrible. This exact spot. They're just a team that does not not to handle winning and that we joke all the time but it really is a young team at its core. Right? This Browns team, they. They nailed this draft. I mean I went back and looked. They probably coming to this year. They're probably gonna have my highest grade for what they drafted this past draft class. But not the quarterback position. I've already talked about. Sanders has been great as like the worst quarterback since he's taken over as a starter. Even worse than Geno Smith somehow, which shocked me when I looked at the stats. But you feel like this is a total game where he just cannot keep up with Joe Bro on that offense. So I'm with Chad. Give me the Cincinnati Bengals minus seven and a half.
Chad Millman
The real question, Simon. And I want Matt Mitchell to note this. I want him to remember this. I want him to play this. When we get to August and we're doing our team by team in division breakdowns and we're doing our quarterback rankings, are we suckers? Are we looking at Joe Burrow and his last six games and saying, oh my God, the guy was dominant and his offensive line was good? And are we thinking the value on the Bengals is going to be too high to win the division because they're going to be playing a relatively bad schedule and are we going to all of a sudden be going all in in value? Are we going to be as the Hoosiers used to say about their friends on their border state, are we going to be Illinois suckers and are we going to go all in backing Joe Burrow in the Bengals? I want us to remember this. I want us to be smart about this. I don't want us to get crazy because something's always going to happen to screw up that bet.
Simon Hunter
Well, I'll say this. My one buddy turned to me and said this is the only division of football that they could have. All four teams have a different starter come next year. Week one with all the drama. With some more what we've heard from Joe Burrow, the uncertainty of Aaron Rodgers and the unknown Obviously have the Browns and what they're going to do. And I was like, I, you're right. I probably never even thought about that. It's probably the only division in my lifetime that's ever been in that unique spot of having all four new starters come week one next year.
Chad Millman
Two years ago, this was the most competitive division in football. Remember, all teams had season win totals of eight and a half or higher.
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
Chad Millman
It's like insane how quickly the league changes. Dallas a 3 1/2 point favorite at the New York Giants. We are very public on this. We both like Dallas. You're explaining the wise guys like the way Jackson Dart can move the ball around. We're definitely on the public side here because we do have reverse line movement with the public coming in on the Cowboys. But the line moving in the direction of the Giants doesn't have to get into the contest for me. But I, I, I'm not seeing it with the Giants.
Simon Hunter
I know. And I hate these type ones because it's like either, either side, I feel like I'm leaving money on the table where it's like the line movements scared me enough where I'm not putting as much into Dallas and it's making me rethink where. Maybe I'm overlooking this Giants team too much. And this is probably a Giant spot, but I told you, my life is a better with Dakota. I blindly bet him in this exact spot. Right when he's playing a bad divisional team below.500. Dak beats the crap out of these type of teams in this exact spot. He just seems to win these games big. You know, maybe once again there's something I'm missing. Maybe there's a, a cold front or a storm coming in on Sunday. I don't think there is. I gotta check the weather. It looks pretty good. I just don't know why Dak being outdoors in the cold or the line moving as much as it has off. I just don't know what it's moved off of. Right. It's moved off professional money. So you know there's nothing going on injury wise for either team. Right. The was the Cowboys cut digs or it did.
Chad Millman
He signed with the Packers. Trayvon Diggs?
Simon Hunter
Yeah. So I don't know. It's, it's like he doesn't matter. He wasn't doing anything for the Cowboys anyway. So really bizarre line movement here. And like, like Chad said, we know it's the public side with Cowboys, but it's, it's Dak and Dallas against a bad team like I said this is a long term winner. Taking position with Dak usually wins these games pretty big. So he's another guy that, you know it's not his fault his team's been as bad as they were this year. He's, he has great numbers, he's performed basically every week. He's had a couple let down games. So that's usually against really good defenses. Not so much against the Giants team that yes, they have a pass rush, but that secondary is just terrible. So terrible you expect him to throw all over the field. With CD Lamb and Pickens obviously playing for that new contract.
Chad Millman
Green Bay in Minnesota, we talked about this one has moved from five and a half on Sunday night when we talked about it, said you got to grab it to 7. That we don't know who the packers quarterback is going to be. We do know that they recently signed Desmond Ritter to the practice squad and we expect them to rest a lot of starters. So that's why this game has moved from five and a half to seven. The only reason it isn't moving more is because Max Brosmar is the quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings as far as we know. So like in terms of value, in terms of contest, I mentioned it only because of the Desmond Ritter news. I don't think there's a play to be had here if you are getting this number at seven.
Simon Hunter
Yeah, and I'm obviously investing in the Vikings, but if you don't have a single penny invested in the Vikings, you have no bet on this game. A couple books have popped. Green Bay seven and a half. I mean with all the, all the unknown, that to me is the position you want to be on at this point. You're getting now a touchdown and a half where it could be Malik Willis, which is, that's a big deal like if he is a player now if it's Desmond Ritter, obviously I think you're deader than dead. I can't see him moving the ball that well, especially after one week of practice against this Vikings defense. But yeah, I'm, it's a weird game because the numbers move too much to me. Like I, I like the Vikings. You can still get anything under seven. But like I said, a bunch of books are popping seven and a half. I, I just, I cannot give out the Vikings with a third string quarterback at seven and a half without knowing who the Green Bay quarterback is. If it's the third or fourth string guy. Yeah, I have no problem taking Minnesota if you want a ton of points. But yeah, this, this is what's tough about this week. The lines move so much just because the pros are hitting it so early. And yeah, this game I really am shocked to see again up to seven and a half hopefully like you, you know, listen to the show. You were able to get the five and a half on Minnesota, even the six and a half we gave it on Tuesday. But yeah, at this point the number to me is moving too much for me to really give out. The Vikings on minus 7.
Chad Millman
LA Chargers, we talked about it. 12 and a half point underdogs at Denver. I'm shocked this one hasn't moved to 13. I was really hoping it would because I wanted to bet it at 13. One book actually has it. A very public book has it at eleven and a half. But like this is an imminently intriguing matchup to me because the Chargers defense is still good and that's who's going to be defending against Bo Nix. I don't talk about unknowable. Why is Trey Lance to me a 10 point difference from Justin Herbert? I don't know that he should be. And so I think he presents a dynamic with his legs that is a little bit different than what the Broncos have been able to prepare for. So it just feels like it's way too high to me.
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I actually went and looked to see what is the difference just from my model and honestly it's right around that shot. I, I, yeah I had it a nine point difference. So somebody that likes to, you know, on Herbert because it's fun because his fans think he's something that he's not which is top five quarterback. Yeah, I think he's a good quarterback, just not top five quarterback. But I told you this is all pros. Like this is just simply a pros versus the book type of game. And yeah, there's Hard Rock just moved to 12 while we're doing it live. So clearly there's still money coming on the Chargers even late. But I just want to let people don't be scared off. Like you look at all the splits, you're going to see all the tickets, all the money on this Chargers team. Like I said, I think it's simply just professionals. I don't know anyone Joe Public messing with this game unless they're throwing, you know, the Broncos in a five and a half teaser or taking the Broncos money line that just I just cannot see the public lineup. But there's other games they're going to want to bet. The Broncos have disappointed, right? As a favorite. I've talked about Bo Nix this season, 2 and 9 is a favorite against the spread. He's just struggled in this spot. And you know, Chad, Chad talked about a little bit here with Trey Lance. It's, it is a obviously a step down from Herbert, but the legs, I feel like mitigates a lot of it. What you've seen Herbert do so well. Obviously he's got a passing the ball. Herbert has bailed them out a ton with his legs. And that's what is going to happen a lot here with Trey Lance. He's going to be on the run a ton and shockingly saw the Charger are going to play a lot of their starters from their offensive line just because those guys need work. Like if you look at the grades, they're basically 32nd, 31st in almost every category blocking wise. And you know, they obviously need to work on the pass block and run blocking. This is the perfect thing to do it against. The Broncos have one of the best fronts in all football. So Trey Lance, he's gonna be running for his life. But like Chad just said this, it feels like a little bit too much of a movement with the Herbert news. Like if it was Herbert in this game, what is this? A three point, two and a half point type of spread? 10 points feels like a lot. So if you do hear this and you can't get a 12 and a half, I would grab because I do think the pros keep betting this down. And like Chad said, there's one book already shown, 11 and a half. I think a couple books will follow suit as the week goes along here.
Chad Millman
Keenan Allen, a lot of incentives in this game. I don't know if he's going to be playing, but if he does, look for those Keenan Allen props, folks, because if there's anything that there's that's like, it could be the perfect scenario. Like he's playing. They don't really have anything to lose, so just sling the ball. Find a way to get KEENAN ALLEN His 750 grand in incentives if he has six plus receptions. Take a look. It's more than seven yards, I'll tell you that much. Detroit plus three at Chicago, Caleb Williams is 270 yards away from being the first Chicago Bear ever to get 4,000 passing yards in a season. Ben Johnson was asked about this in his press conference and he said he thought it was an arbitrary number. Who cares? Reporters laughed and said, you must be new here because everyone here cares quite a bit. I looked at Caleb's two year stats through week 17. In his second year, 45 touchdown passes and only 12 picks. So last night my buddy who was over asked me while we were watching the game, the Miami Ohio State game, if you were to redraft the 2024 quarterback draft, what would you do? I still had Caleb number one and I still I and I had Drake made number two.
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's. We all overreact, right? I think Jaden Daniels was the unanimous number one pick coming to this year from that draft. So yeah, it's just I saw people are saying is this the greatest QB draft ever? A draft that I think Jay Daniel is the only one with the actual playoff win. So it's just we like to crown him early. That's what we do here. We'd like to crown them early but I'd never waiver. I I said from the get go Caleb was my number one guy. I mean one of my favorite shows ever was, I think it was we had on Seth Rollins was trying to talk you and Seth Rollins down about getting rid of Justin Fields and how is a good thing and Caleb Williams is a million times better in sets of the upside. And it's just funny looking back where now it's like there's no question, right. One's a, one's a proven winner that can make the big time throws. The other one is a crazy athlete that can never find a way to win games so it can be out.
Chad Millman
Of the league in two years.
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Caleb is just. You see why he's. You know, the guy was hyped up in high school. Seth Wickersham told us his dad had him getting interview prepped when he was in high school getting ready for talking to the media for college in the NFL. Like this kid always has been the guy. The question was always going to be can he be a leader of men? Can this guy lead men? Can guys play hard for him through a whole season? Does he have that type of personality type? And you've seen it now. He is what we always talk about, right. You need that quarterback to be the type of alpha guy and he seems like he is it. You know that game last week really was shocking. I just couldn't believe how great Caleb played in a game that had just the same amount of pressure to get the one seed. So I am not shocked talking about this game to see the pros coming on the spares team. Right. They have been what we've talked about all season. They play teams close, they always find ways to win late. And that's just their identity. Right. They're just a slug it out type of team. And they have something the Lions don't have, which is a run game. Like, let's break it down for real. This Lions team, they can now fall back on the run game like they have in the past. A lot of these games have fallen onto golf shoulders where this, this Bears team, they need to pick up four or five chunks to give, you know, a third and five or second and five to Caleb. They've been great to put them in that position. The lines have not been the same. I do think that is why so many pros think that this is the difference here. The Bears team will always be in a better position. But I think me and Chad have talked a little bit about this Bears team. We love them. But as a three point favorite, that's where I have to draw the line. This is a team like I talked. They play close games. This Lions team, as bad as they've looked, there's still the number two, number three offense in all of football. They're still a team that has moved the ball. They've just been so let down by their defense. So really unique spot, right? A really, really unique spot in the sense that a couple weeks ago, the Lions were probably minus one here on the road and the numbers moved, what, four and a half points, five points. Now because the Bears have been playing so well done, the stretching the lines, they've fallen off the cliff. I mean, that last loss, I mean, it could be more embarrassing. That's why the public is. Yeah. Totally out on them. Right? That was.
Chad Millman
That's, by the way, why I'm on.
Simon Hunter
This game, is how bad that game was.
Chad Millman
I'm fading that last game. Like, I'm fading the Bears brilliance. And I'm betting into the Lions complete.
Simon Hunter
And total failings, which again, to me is scary because this type of year, I really do think you are who you are. Like, the lines are exactly who they are. If you go through and you look these last couple weeks. No, this is who they are. They've totally faltered here and falling apart. And it's really golf. Golf has just been absolutely terrible with the turnovers. Hold on the ball too long. Like, it just felt like all of a sudden he has zero pocket awareness. Like, he doesn't know there's a blitz coming. He's about to get smacked in three seconds, all of it. Golf has been so bad. But like you just said, this is the lowest we've been able to buy this Lions team in, I don't know, four years. With Campbell like this, it just feels like this is low as it gets since we bet on them when they were what, zero and eight and they come out pulled out that one against the Minnesota Vikings. So it's been a long time for this Lions team. And yeah, it's really to me about the numbers. So we'll ride with the books. The books are going to desperately need the Lions come Sunday and that's a position I'm happy to be in. So grab the three. We'll see if we get lucky in three and a half. Couple three and a half pops. But while we're doing the show live, Hard Rock just with the two and a half. So there is some pro money coming on the science team now.
Chad Millman
Finally, Arizona, the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams are seven and a half point favorites. It's ticked up from seven into seven and a half since I made it Chad's choice. Talk about you are who you are. And maybe I was leaning into it too hard for the Lions, but I'm definitely buying into a team that had a dreadful first half in prime time and then nearly won the game in, in the second half with a guy who probably should be the MVP and Matthew Stafford going against a team that really is who we think they are. In the Arizona Cardinals. It's at seven. It's moved up to seven and a half. Still good with it. Still like it. Still want to put it in the contest. Los Angeles Rams. Fight, fight, fight.
Simon Hunter
Yeah, and Arizona just looks like one of those teams that all these guys had booked their vacation.
Chad Millman
They're done, they're done.
Simon Hunter
Totally cooked. You know, last week saw some fight. I think they like had this crazy, crazy touchdown where Cincinnati couldn't tackle and all of a sudden it was like a 14, 14 point game. The final score is 37 14. Like Cincinnati just totally whooped and opened up on them the rest of the game. And we've gone through it every game. They've just been blown out. Even Atlanta beat them by a touchdown. I think they beat him 26:19.
Chad Millman
Yeah, they just like they, they, they, they couldn't compete anymore. Like the second half of the year, they just stopped being able to keep the games that were close in the first half of the year within contention. And they just get blown out and they get blown out late.
Simon Hunter
And the last time they played. Speaking of a reaction, the Rams is the same exact team, whereas in Arizona is a minus nine and a half point favorite. So they're. Yeah, the number has moved against them. Now they're at home.
Chad Millman
Makes no sense.
Simon Hunter
Exactly. It just shows how the public and general public overreacts to it. So this is gonna be a huge need for the book. But every week whoever plays against the Arizona is going to be a need, obviously, but I'm with Chad. Those are the exact type of game that they need to get right. And McVeigh, you know, it's not gonna be an easy week of practice.
Chad Millman
Right?
Simon Hunter
It's gonna be a really hella week. They need this. They're gonna need to show up offensively and touch a little bit of the Stafford MVP stuff. There's no way they don't hear that stuff inside the locker room. Right? There's no way they don't hear oh yeah, he's now not the favorite and I'm sure he's seen that. I think he has 42 touchdown passes. Basically if he throws for three touchdown passes, he'll have 45 touchdown passes and under 10 interceptions. Only two other quarterbacks in FL history have ever done that. Tom Brady, Aaron Rogers, they both won the MVP this season. They did that. So there is a little bit of historical data where certain numbers he needs to get to. I think that look better to these beat writers. A lot of these people vote on MVP and I'm sure you've seen it. It's. It's already been a heated week. Patriots.
Chad Millman
Oh my God. So much fun.
Simon Hunter
Dan Arloski just getting killed because his agent reps Matthew Stafford's agent. And it's just they're coming for you. If you have an opinion on this in your sports media, they're really coming for you. And you know it's. We talked a little bit about. I think Stafford came on the show, he was over plus 300U MVP. You've seen it come down a little bit. Just because what I said, it's like this is opinionated award. There's no. It doesn't matter if Drake May is the big favorite here. It's really based on these opinions and how well Stafford's agent can sell it to all these people in media when like I said, he's been around 37 years old. He's been around a long time. That's going to ring true in a lot of these media guys when they go to vote. So, you know, we're all in on this Rams team. This is another spot where Arizona. We're really banking on Arizona being a team that quit here. That's really what we're banking on here. Because if you just have a little bit of a letdown like we've seen this ramps team are gonna be so motivated. How do they not put up 35, 40, 40 points here against Arizona? Defense, Defense, Chad. So I know it's very chalky of a bet by you on Tuesday, but I'm supporting. I, I love this Rams team.
Chad Millman
It's a narrative award. People in the media love a narrative. Simon says was the Pittsburgh Steelers plus three and a half hosting the Baltimore Ravens in the last regular season game of the year on Sunday Night Football. We're both all in on the Pittsburgh Steelers. We're all in on Mike Tomlin. Rah rah. We're all in on the Steelers as an underdog. We're all in on Aaron Rodgers. I'm mostly in because I think this Ravens defense has proven to be a fraud against the pass as the season has gone on. They haven't gotten better. They can be taken in the middle of the field. They keep getting confused. I'm tired of seeing Kyle Hamilton and Roquan's with trying to work it out after a big play. Like they just haven't been good. I'm betting against the Ravens. I'm betting on Aaron Rodgers. Let's roll.
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And it's such a fitting way for us in the season, right on this gross game, taking the gross dog in a spot. We always back Tomlins. So, you know, it's a really unique game in the sense what Chad's talking about here. It's a team that you kind of throw out the records and you just blindly take the dog historically give it out the record one more time just because it's my always be my favorite stat this series since 2005, 30, 12 and 3. The dog in this matchup, 71 in the regular season, the underdog. So whether it's Tomlin's underdog or Harbaugh's underdog, these two coaches, when they match up, whichever team is the underdog, 25 and 7 against the spread in their history. It's crazy. It really is. When you go back through all the data, especially you know, when those Ben Roethlisberger years, right, they had the, the, the three Bs, they were dominant offensively and they were playing against a banged up flatco and a horrible Ravens team. The Ravens kept winning those games, recovering and then they flipped when this Pittsburgh team has now been playing backups. They've been covering winning. So I don't know about you, I'm hoping it's Lamar. I know it sounds crazy, but we talked about Lamar with this injuries to his legs. He's not had a superpower. He's not had his legs and that's, that's such a weapon of his to miss. Where you saw it with Stu Punle, that felt like that was a big difference in that Green Bay game. Like they just couldn't contain him. And when he would break out and he'd use his legs, that was such a weapon you saw that was lacking with that Ravens offense. So we'll see today. I think Lamar's participated in their walkthrough. Hopefully he gets cleared today and he should be the quarterback here and maybe we get a four and a four or four and a half by kickoff because Lamar is the quarterback. But I'm grabbing the three and a half just in case the professionals do come in and bet this one down. Now I could see this one coming down. So unique spot. We love the Steelers here and we blindly bet it. We will see what the injury news is with Lamar but you know, I, I just can't see it affecting the line too much. And most moves a point, maybe half a point.
Chad Millman
He did practice. He is. They are confident he will play. That's the latest.
Simon Hunter
There you go.
Chad Millman
So there you go.
Simon Hunter
Maybe, maybe I'm wrong. Maybe it won't move because if Chad's giving you that info, that means that the books have known that for a little bit. They've not budged. So that's, that's really interesting. So yeah, it's, it's held up three and a half.
Chad Millman
Pittsburgh Steelers plus three and a half. Quick word from our sponsor at Hard Rock Bet. We'll come back on the other side. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bat Florida Sportsbook and the official sportsbook partner of your favorite Florida teams like the Jags, Buccaneers, Heat, Magic and panthers. It's week 18 and playoff spots are on the line. I think you know how it will play out. Build a same game parlay on Hard Rock Bet and turn game day into payday. Or if you're more into hardwood than the gridiron, you can put up shots on the NBA and college every night on Hard Rock Bet, your home for hoops action all season long. You can even combine your football and basketball bets. If you've got a week 18 parlay, add an NBA bet or player prop to turn it and turn up the payouts. And if you missed the start of the game, don't worry. Hard Rock Bet has live in game betting so you're never too late to bet any football or hoops game all season. Find a winner or grab that player prop you had circled and bet live in just a few easy taps. If you haven't tried your first bet on hard rock bet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a $5 bet and if it hits, you get not only your winnings but also an extra $150 in bonus bets. The Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook app is the only legal sportsbook for whenever you're in Florida and also live in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, Colorado and Michigan. Coming soon to more states, too. Plus, Hard Rock Bet offers new promos every single day, so whenever you're listening, just open up the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week, download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit payable in bonus bets. Not a cash offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 and over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1833 playwise in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809 with it Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia.
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Chad Millman
All right Simon Hunter, what are your biggest bets?
Simon Hunter
Pull up those pants and be a man. Before I do it, a couple people asked about futures. I'll do it super quick just from before the season asking what I have left from our show that got lost in the shuffle. I basically need a miracle. I need the Bills to somehow for super bowl futures. It says I need America. I need to build somehow to make it to super bowl to beat the 49ers at plus 65 to 1. So that's the one I've left. I obviously gave out the Eagles to over the Chiefs. That one's deader than dead 49ers to be the ones in the NFC plus 700 still alive. I couldn't believe it. I gave out worst record Arizona Cardinals 75 1. I have a couple tickets on that one game away they are three I think three and 13 or three and 14. Obviously the Raiders have two losses so that that one was really close. To coming out and still alive. Most receiving yards Jackson Smith of Jigba at 35 to 1. He is leading by, I think 70 yards. So, yeah, not, not the best year for future. But that's why we give out crazy long shots. You're always hoping crazy stuff for this week. Biggest bets. Like I said, it's a little, little weird because it is the week before the playoffs and there's so much college football going on. Biggest position I took, obviously early in the week, I took a large position on Minnesota. Vikings took a large position just because I fought that Green Bay wouldn't be playing their starters. That number has moved luckily accordingly. I took a pretty big position on this, this 49ers team at plus one and a half. I'm a little worried about it because like I said, it is the, the pros are so heavily on the other side. So, you know, if you want to join me in my prime, my bigger bet for Saturday, I'll take Carolina up to 7 1/2. I'll take the 49ers up to 7 1/2. It's probably minus 120, maybe minus 110 just because Carolina is now up back up to plus 3. The juice isn't too bad, but I like both of them to cover at least being a touchdown underdog. I just can't see the 49ers getting blunt or Carolina again. Blood on these type of games. Just you see it time and time again, right? Teams fighting for divisional, divisional games that decides playoff positioning tend to be very close games. So I do like that. I wouldn't tease it because teasers now are ripoff. I think if you tease, tease this, it's like minus 140. You don't need the Panthers mine or plus nine and a half. Just take the number up to adjust it to seven and a half. That's gonna be one of my bigger bets. And as people know, Chad's already talked a little bit about it. Cincinnati, love that side. Love the Rams. I'm just putting their money lines together, taking a pretty big bet on both those sides just to win straight up. But yeah, like I said, very, very wonky week. It's just be careful because it's really the pros heading these lines. The public usually set this week out just because it is such a wild week.
Chad Millman
Speaking of money lines, Moneyline, underdog Parlay.
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Chad Millman
Your dog likes my dog. I've got Pittsburgh, Carolina, San Francisco, New Orleans.
Simon Hunter
Love it.
Chad Millman
Moneyline favorite, you just mentioned two of them. I had Cincinnati and the Rams. I have Denver -5 and a half. I got Minnesota.
Simon Hunter
I don't hate like again, it's. It's a weird week. We're like Dallas. I like, I like Philly. I know Philly's playing their backups, but yeah, Tanner McKee just looks like an absolute stud. Like I think this could be a starter and this is exact type of game where you know, he knows he's playing for that, right? He's playing for that Matt Flynn type of deal. He wants that Matt Flynn money. So yeah, I like the Eagles now. The numbers move so much. I said if you could got. If you could have got Washington plus seven, that. That was a really nice number. But now that it's under seven, especially now the Eagles money line, I think that's good value there. So yeah, there's a bunch of ways you can mismatch. If you don't love the Denver's then we're line that Chad gave out. I don't hate throwing Dallas's money line in there. The Eagles money line. But yeah, Rams money line since he's money line. Like these we. We've seen time to take them these big favorites in the week 18. These teams do tend to show up where these other teams, they're already ready for that vacation. They're just. They're just there to get that paycheck.
Chad Millman
Sure. Versus Square. Who do you.
Simon Hunter
I guess I gotta do it because I've just hyped it up so much at this point. Give me. Give me the 49ers plus one plus one and a half.
Chad Millman
I am taking the Cincinnati Bengals. I'll take the seven and a half.
Simon Hunter
Ram seven and a half and then Bengals seven and a half.
Chad Millman
I know, I thought about that. One of them's gonna lose. Obviously. Now.
Simon Hunter
I don't know. I'm with you. I'm drinking the Kool Aid. I like them both.
Chad Millman
All right, listen. Happy New Year to everybody. We're all Hoosiers today. Go Indiana Hoosiers. Fight, fight, fight. This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume podcast network. We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube on Sunday morning. You'll get to eavesdrop on an intimate conversation where we make decisions we will regret. Watch or listen on Sharper Square on YouTube. You can also download us from Spotify, Apple pods, wherever we get your pods. Rate, Review. Subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until Sunday.
Simon Hunter
Love you.
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Simon Hunter
And Deacon Jones over there.
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So let's start kicking some ass.
Simon Hunter
This team is not better than not even good.
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This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Episode Date: January 1, 2026
In this high-stakes Week 18 episode, betting expert Chad Millman and pro bettor Simon Hunter break down the NFL’s biggest games for the final week of the regular season. They discuss sharp (professional) vs. square (public) betting positions, analyze line moves, and give listeners actionable advice, including their signature “brass balls” pick and teaser strategies. The tone is conversational and fun, filled with betting insights, personal anecdotes, and running jokes—like Chad’s Indiana Hoosier pride and references to Midwest quirks.
Chad's Parting Words:
“Happy New Year to everybody. We're all Hoosiers today. Go Indiana Hoosiers. Fight, fight, fight... Watch or listen on Sharper Square on YouTube. Download us from Spotify, Apple pods, wherever... Feedback is a gift. Until Sunday.” (62:48)
Simon:
“Love you.” (63:25)
Catch the next episode Sunday morning on YouTube or your favorite podcast app for last-minute sharp action!