Sharp or Square: NFL Week 18 Sharp Bets & Wise Guy Picks

Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Episode Date: January 1, 2026

Episode Overview

In this high-stakes Week 18 episode, betting expert Chad Millman and pro bettor Simon Hunter break down the NFL’s biggest games for the final week of the regular season. They discuss sharp (professional) vs. square (public) betting positions, analyze line moves, and give listeners actionable advice, including their signature “brass balls” pick and teaser strategies. The tone is conversational and fun, filled with betting insights, personal anecdotes, and running jokes—like Chad’s Indiana Hoosier pride and references to Midwest quirks.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The State of the Season & Betting Mindset

• Opening banter on the arrival of 2026 and gratitude toward listeners. Personal and playful as always.
• Betting focus: Week 18 is a "pros versus the books" week, not a public week, as many betters shift attention to college bowls.
  • Quote (Chad, 03:15): “We are incredibly appreciative and lucky as we kick off 2026. Good Lord. 2026.”

2. Sharp Calls Recap: Where the Pros are Betting (07:45 – 11:49)

• Chicago Bears -3 vs. Lions:
  • The pros like the Bears, believing they're the superior and more motivated team.
  • Quote (Simon, 07:47): “The pros absolutely love Chicago…pretty shocked me. I thought Detroit would be the pro side, but it seems like the public and the pros are lined up on this Bears team.”
• Giants vs. Cowboys:
  • Pros are backing the Giants, not Dallas, despite Dallas’ reputation against bad opponents.
  • Cowboys’ poor record against mobile QBs was a concern.
• Seattle at San Francisco:
  • Pros surprisingly hammering the Seahawks as dogs—even though the 49ers are rarely home underdogs.
  • Simon and Chad still prefer Purdy & Shanahan, pointing to history.
• Other Notes:
  • Panthers: Sharps on Panthers as line drops against the Bucs.
  • Saints vs. Falcons: Pros hit Saints at +3/+3.5, even with Olave out.
  • Chargers vs. Broncos: Wise guy money piling on big dogs (Chargers +12.5).
  • Vikings vs. Packers: Number moved heavily; sharps were early on Vikings.

3. Brass Balls Bet: Carolina Panthers +2.5 at Buccaneers (12:15 – 15:16)

• Chad's brass balls bet of the week.
• Panthers historically strong after a straight-up loss: 7-0 ATS since 1990 in this spot.
• Fade Baker Mayfield at home/against division foes; books still give him a “tax”.
  • Quote (Simon, 13:20): “This will be…Carolina 7-0 against the spread after a straight up loss…We’re betting on history here.”
  • Quote (Simon, 14:58): “We like to fade Baker... In his career, 5 and 14 at home and against divisional foes since 2020 he’s 2 and 12 against the spread.”

4. Deep Game-by-Game NFL Breakdown

SEATTLE +1.5 AT SAN FRANCISCO (16:41 – 19:50)

• Wiseguys betting Seahawks, but hosts point to Brock Purdy’s strong home record, 49ers’ rare status as a dog.
• Historical context—49ers are rarely underdogs at home.
• Conclusion: Millman and Hunter still side with the 49ers.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS +3 AT ATLANTA FALCONS (24:16 – 27:26)

• Olave out, but pros still like the Saints. Saints defense matches up well and covers consistently in this spot.
• Kirk Cousins comeback praised but concerns remain.
  • Quote (Simon, 24:56): "It's brutal losing Olave...they just had such great chemistry, especially down the stretch here."

CINCINNATI BENGALS -7.5 VS. CLEVELAND BROWNS (28:08 – 31:01)

• Chad loves Bengals, thinks they’ll want to finish strong.
• Browns historically bad after wins; major ATS fade spot.
  • Quote (Simon, 28:51): “This Browns team off a straight up win since last year, 0-6 against the spread, losing those games by almost 11 points per game.”

DALLAS COWBOYS -3.5 AT NEW YORK GIANTS (32:34 – 34:44)

• Public loves Dallas; pros on Giants. Chad and Simon usually favor Dak in these spots but are wary of line movement.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS -7 VS. GREEN BAY PACKERS (34:44 – 36:43)

• Early value was on the Vikings (when line was < 7), but now, with the QB situation uncertain, the value has dried up.

LA CHARGERS +12.5 AT DENVER BRONCOS (36:43 – 39:47)

• Sharps betting Chargers heavily, questioning if the downgrade from Herbert to Trey Lance is too steep.
• Bo Nix (Broncos) poor ATS as a favorite; pros expect tighter game.

DETROIT LIONS +3 AT CHICAGO BEARS (40:32 – 45:30)

• Heavy pro action on Bears, but hosts see value in fading last week’s Bears outperformance and Lions embarrassment.
• Caleb Williams (Bears) narrative; Goff’s turnovers a problem, yet Lions’ offense undervalued.
  • Quote (Simon, 44:14): “Golf has just been absolutely terrible with the turnovers…But this is the lowest we’ve been able to buy this Lions team in…I don’t know, four years…”

RAMS -7.5 AT CARDINALS (45:30 – 49:22)

• Chad’s “Chad’s Choice” in favor of Rams. Cardinals have quit; Rams need a robust finish.
• Stafford’s MVP campaign discussed; offensive firepower should lead to blowout.
  • Quote (Simon, 47:08): “Arizona just looks like one of those teams that all these guys had booked their vacation. They’re done, they’re done.”

STEELERS +3.5 VS. RAVENS (Sunday Night) (49:22 – 52:28)

• Both hosts all-in on Tomlin as a dog; historical ATS dominance of dogs in this rivalry.
• Ravens defense seen as vulnerable; Lamar’s health discussed but line steady.
  • Quote (Simon, 50:15): “Since 2005, 30-12-3, the dog in this matchup…25-7 against the spread in their history.”

5. Biggest Bets, Moneyline Parlay, and Teasers (57:55 – 62:48)

• Simon’s Biggest Bets:
  • Early position on Vikings (at best number), 49ers as dog, Carolina +7.5 and 49ers +7.5 alt lines for a parlay.
  • Moneyline favorites: Cincinnati, Rams. May include Denver, Minnesota, Dallas, and Eagles in mix-and-match parlays.
    • Quote (Simon, 59:24): “Carolina, love that side. Love the Rams. I’m just putting their money lines together, taking a pretty big bet on both those sides just to win straight up.”
• Chad’s Dog Parlay: Pittsburgh, Carolina, San Francisco, New Orleans.
• Sharp vs. Square Bets:
  • Simon leans 49ers as a sharp play.
  • Chad takes Bengals -7.5 as a square (public) play.

6. Memorable Quotes & Moments

• Regional Humor:
  • Ongoing homage to the Midwest and Indiana Hoosiers; Midwestern humor and sense of community featured.
    • Quote (Chad, 20:23): “People dismiss the Midwest…those states don’t matter to people, but they matter to me.”
• Rico Dowdle Side Bet Banter:
  • Giddy sidebar about an anytime TD/Rush yards parlay bet and listener engagement.
    • Quote (Chad, 15:37): “I did bet Rico Dowdle 25 plus yards rushing and parlay it with his anytime touchdown…”

Important Timestamps

• 03:12 – New Year’s jokes, opening vibe
• 07:45 – Start of sharp/square calls, betting market overview
• 12:23 – Brass balls bet on Panthers +2.5
• 16:41 – San Francisco/Seattle sharp vs. practical angles
• 24:16 – Saints-Falcons breakdown, Olave impact
• 28:08 – Bengals’ “statement” game and Browns fade
• 34:44 – Packers-Vikings value, quarterback confusion
• 36:43 – Chargers-Broncos, Herbert/Lance impact
• 40:32 – Detroit-Chicago, narrative on Caleb Williams
• 45:30 – Rams-Cardinals, Stafford MVP angle
• 49:22 – Steelers-Ravens, rivalry dog dominance
• 57:55 – Simon’s week’s biggest positions
• 60:53 – Moneyline dog parlay picks
• 62:24 – Final sharp/square picks

Final Takeaways

• Top Sharp Sides This Week: Carolina, Saints, Chargers, Vikings (at best number), and arguably the Seahawks (by professional consensus, though hosts dissent).
• Hosts’ Favorite Plays: Carolina +2.5 (brass balls), 49ers over Seahawks (contrarian), Bengals -7.5, Rams -7.5, Steelers +3.5.
• Strategic Reminder: Week 18 is about beating the books, not the public—watch for line moves due to professional action and play numbers, not just sides.

Chad's Parting Words:
“Happy New Year to everybody. We're all Hoosiers today. Go Indiana Hoosiers. Fight, fight, fight... Watch or listen on Sharper Square on YouTube. Download us from Spotify, Apple pods, wherever... Feedback is a gift. Until Sunday.” (62:48)

Simon:
“Love you.” (63:25)

For More

Catch the next episode Sunday morning on YouTube or your favorite podcast app for last-minute sharp action!