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Sharp or Square
SHARP NFL Week 3 Bets: Cowboys-Bears, Chiefs-Giants, Rams-Eagles, Steelers-Patriots & more
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- [00:00]
Colin Coward
This is Colin Coward from the Colin coward podcast on Fox 1. Now you can stream your favorite live sport so you can be there live for the biggest moments. That means NFL Sundays and college football games, nascar, Major League Baseball, postseason and more. With Fox one, you get it all. Live, edgier seat plays, high octane moments and that feeling like you're right there in the action. Fox 1 We live for live streaming now.
- [00:29]
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- [00:59]
Movie Promoter
Sell your soul for greatness? Would you be willing to sacrifice? Find out on September 19 that a new Jordan Peele produced horror film, only in theaters, starring Marlon Wayans in a role of a lifetime as the greatest football player of all time, AKA the Goat. Tariq Withers also stars the up and coming Protege, directed by Justin Tiffin, produced by Monkey Paw Productions. Never meet yout Idols him hits theater September 19th.
- [01:24]
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- [02:24]
Chad Millman
Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the betting show that makes the square sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman and I am joined by my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter.
- [02:43]
Simon Hunter
Hello Simon, Chad, how are we doing.
- [02:46]
Chad Millman
I feel so good. I do. I feel great. I'm going to feel worse after we tell people what our brass balls bet of the week is. But right now it's like that run up before you know the bad news is coming and you're just going to enjoy those final moments. This is our Thursday week three episode where we narrow the options on our quest to agree for our five favorite picks of this week. By the way, for housekeeping, we are throwing up the graphic with our record for the five picks we have landed on during the Sunday morning shows so far in weeks one and two. We will normally do this on Tuesday. We missed this week. I want to make sure we showcased it 6 and 4 in the year, 4 and 1 in week 1, 2 and 3. Hard fought 2 and 3 in week 2. Reminder. Subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify, however you want. We are there. Let's get into this thing. Simon, we gotta check in with the wise guy. Let's go to the wise guy hotline. Wise guy hotline.
- [03:55]
Simon Hunter
All right, Chad, so let's start where I feel like games we didn't talk much about. I think people just want to hear it because we're probably not going to talk about again. They just want to know what the pro side is for those games. A lot of pro love for the Bucs this week. A couple guys I talked to really love the Bucks. I got no read, no real opinion on that one. So found that pretty interesting that the professionals like the Bucks just because I, I really like the jets there. I thought it was a good number. Maybe I'll just steer clear of it. There's other games I like a lot more, so that one jumped out of.
- [04:27]
Chad Millman
Can I just say, I'm so glad to hear you say that because that number has moved in the, in the direction of the jets and it was at seven. Now it's six and a half. I was afraid we were going to have to have a long conversation about that. About it and I can't. I can't get there. I feel like the jets are the right side, but I can't get.
- [04:43]
Simon Hunter
They might be. But I, I was shocked. I thought it was gonna be just like last week, all jets love. But I, I see, I see the love for the Bucks. I just can't get over the injuries to the Bucks though. Their whole offensive line is just.
- [04:54]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [04:55]
Simon Hunter
Banged up. So.
- [04:55]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [04:57]
Simon Hunter
All right, let's. Let's get to. It's gonna be a week of just dogs, Chad. So, so I'll start At the top of this with the the calls here that everyone I've talked to knows this is a week to take these road divisional dogs and there's a bunch of them and it's a unique spot where you've probably heard this Trend. Basically Houston 0 and 2 against the spread now they're on the road as a divisional dog. Denver 0 and 2 against the spread now on the road as divisional dog. Miami Dolphins only two against the spread on the road as a divisional dog in this exact spot since 2003 teams in this exact spot. So on the road a divisional dog after being 0 and 2 against the spread hits an 80 clip. So people got to hold their nose and realize that the pros love the Dolphins this week the pros love the Texans and the pros love the Denver. So those are three teams that jump out right away that I get what they love it the trends back it up and I'm excited for that be games that we dive into here. But those three so many calls about it and I was just so happy because I love him as well and the other ones we'll just go through really quick because we're going to talk about them as well. Browns tons of professional love. Eagleston's professional love and you know not not not that big of a shocker. The Bears has been a big talking point for the pros so the the most hate I got about all our picks was definitely the Chiefs bet and I'm sure we'll talk about that game with some more but yeah all mostly love for our picks heading this week and I think we're going to see on a good week I like maybe 23 bets including totals this week. I have like 5 or 6 sides I really like and I've been into pretty heavy so I'm really excited to Talk about this week.
- [06:43]
Chad Millman
3 no surprise that everyone hates the Chiefs and we're good listen your pet chat they hate it and like I we're going to talk about it. We've we're going to talk about the Texans. We're going to talk about the Bears. We're going to talk about the Broncos. They're going to talk about the Browns. All those things. We are going to talk about the Chiefs. I got some thoughts on the Chiefs and we'll get to let's talk about Green Bay at Cleveland. So look the number seven and a half at Hard Rock bet right now it's moved down it was at eight and a half and you've already pinpointed Cleveland is the sharp Side. I do. I do have a confession to make. I had been holding off on this game and then yesterday afternoon it was at eight and a half. It was eight. It was eight or seven and a half at most places. There was one book, whereas eight and a half. Eight and a half minus 110. And I'm like, what am I doing? Like, this is the game. We are supposed to love betting. This is the game where we say to ourselves we know what we're doing. We see the money going in the opposite in the Browns direction. So I felt like I had a little bit of a KPI for lack of a better term to get all corporate. Like the majority of the money is on the Packers. We're back in a the O2 team. That's the trend. I'm not saying it's a final five, but Simon, I'm drawing a line in the sand. Okay. This has been the year of the favorites. Last year was the year of the favorites. The Browns don't cover this game. I don't know that we can trust anything we've ever known about betting underdogs. That's how I feel about it.
- [08:37]
Simon Hunter
That's an overreaction. It's. People are going to see the theme of this week. I think you're kind of talking about a little bit here. It's just overreaction to two weeks of data and the general public thinking they have a read on these teams, that they have no idea what these teams really are. And you, the more you dive into matchups and numbers, a lot of it is luck in different teams. Matchups that skew people's perceptions and you know, some teams just come out flat while other teams come out flawless right after. Even some of these teams, it's funny reading stuff like here and beat writers have horrible weeks of practice and they come out game day and they've just been incredible these first two weeks. So it is hard to get a read. And I think the general public will react to stuff and this is the prime example of that. And these I don't love. I do, I do love trends but I don't love them as much later in the season. I do in these early weeks here. And my favorite one is for this exact spot where Chad, Chad feels sick to his stomach betting it because he knows he has to bet. And there's a good reason that you feel that way, Chad because is another long term winner where you're getting a home dog greater than seven points in the first couple weeks of the season. So it's A unique spot when in the first nine games of the year there's a home dog at seven points or more. They've covered a 59% success rate since the last 20 years, which is crazy to think. But since 2027, 10 and 2 against the spread and just the last three seasons, this exact spot, this home divisional dog, or I shouldn't say divisional dog, this home dog of seven points or more, they're 18, one and two, Chad. Since 2020 in the spot or since the last three season. So you look at the last three years and we've talked about the death of the dog, which is true, right? Maybe won't be putting this one on the money line, but it shows right there. The public overreacts. They move this number especially early in the year and you know this was probably six and a half six and you know Green Bay looks like gods on Thursday night. The Browns look like a horrible team that gets rolled to the general public. And this moves two, three points like this touch nine. So like Chad just said, there's one book out there, one very public book that sells eight and a half. This is heading to seven and a half eight. So you're going to bet it. You'll be sick your stomach if it loses. Like we're both going to be. But long term, bet this spot. Bet these type of numbers. The Browns, we know they're a bad team. We're just trusting the number that they can backdoor this or keep this close. And remember all the injuries to that offensive line of Green Bay and this is probably one of the best D lines in football with Cleveland. Like I can't believe how great they were against that Ravens team. It was just. Lamar is just another level. So it didn't matter. But people will see like this is going to be a really tough test for that front in Green Bay. And I do love this number.
- [11:26]
Chad Millman
Simon, every trend you talk about is is flashing bright, bright green in addition to betting a team off of a blowout because you know the line is going to be inflated against them. Everything says bet the Browns. We are betting the Browns. Will it be in the final five? I don't know. I feel like there's going to be four games we feel great about and and we're going to end up putting the Browns in and probably feeling pretty bad about it. And I'm telling you right now, if the Browns don't cover, I'm never betting another underdog as long as we live. I'm only betting favorites. I'm just betting favorites.
- [12:09]
Simon Hunter
From the Lions next week. There's. You're going to love some of those dogs.
- [12:13]
Chad Millman
Houston is a two point underdog at Jacksonville. Actually, it's down to one and a half at Hard Rock. So we're seeing the line move in the direction of the Texans. This has been a weird line, okay. Because it was at one and a half, was trending actually in the direction of pick, then all of a sudden on Tuesday afternoon, bounced way up to two and a half, dropped back down to two. I don't quite understand this one, but I'm telling you right now, we're making this our rock and a hard place. Hard Rock better than. Because it is a little bit challenging. We talk about division dogs. We don't really know what this Texans team is. And whatever C.J. stroud was his rookie year is not what he was last year and it's not what he's been in the first two games. This offensive line really can't block anybody. The offense itself is stagnant. They really didn't do anything after the first two drives against the Bucks. I'm not counting that Chubb touchdown because Todd Bowles basically let them score. So this team's struggling and I think this is as much a bet against Jacksonville to me as it is a bet on the Texans. It's a bet against Jacksonville and a bet against the on the spot as it is the Texans.
- [13:39]
Simon Hunter
No brainer. Easy bet. If you love this show, you gotta take this. And I'm. I'm so mad this number's moving because two and a half was a real number from this Texas team last night and this morning. And I kept bending it and I kept checking the news being like, am I missing? Is someone hurt? That's I here. But I think we talk all the time. There's just a lot of head fakes with these professional betters. And I think they just moved the line, got a good number and then bet it back down. And another again. I talked about the trend of these divisional dogs on the road. 0 and 2 against the spread. Houston fits that. And it's another spot where the total if it's less than 45 and it's a week three divisional game and there's a dog again that hasn't covered in two straight since 2011. This set 130 spot for this Texas team on this trends where it's basically a team that's undervalued because the public is totally off of them. Professional betters a little hesitant because what Chad just talked about. C.J. he's giving people doubt right now. Right. And I have questions about CJ like everyone else, but I'm still. He still does things around. Like I see the talent. And you can go back and look last year, the last five games of the season, he played at that level. We saw the year before. He was throwing for over 300 yards in those games. Playoffs, touchdowns. Yeah, playoffs. He showed up against The Chargers like CJ's got it in him. It's all about him being comfortable. And you've seen a quarterback that's uncomfortable right now for this Houston team. So I get the people's hesitation with this one. But this is a very unique spot where Houston's actually kind of the guys in this, in this game, right? In this, in this matchup. They've owned the Jaguars last few times they've played them. I know every team's different, but it's also a CJ spot. CJ is a favorite. He's not that good as a dog. In his career, he's 11 and 11 and seven against the spread and okay, that's not that big of a deal. It is when you look at how bad he is as a favorite. When the public overvalues him, when you, when they start to doubt him, undervalue him, that shows that TJ and the Texans tend to show up. CJ and the Texans show up here. So short week, people are hesitant about that as well because they played, you know, on Monday night. In his early career, he's 4 and 1 on short weeks against the spread. So he comes up really preparing these exact spots. And it's a afc, AFC south game. And the AFC south has a weird trend right now going of these dogs in this, in this division. The last few years they're 11:1 against the spread. So we've seen the dogs in this division tend to get over undervalued by the public and the favorites get a little overvalued. There's two games this week in this division, both dogs, you know, Tennessee and the Houston Texans here, their numbers have moved against them and that's. Again, I'm upset. I wish this was two and a half on the show. Two and a half in our contest. No brainer. Easy bet at 1/2. I'm still probably in on them for our contest because I just think this is such a good spot with such a desperate team in Texans and their defense. This is kind of a perfect matchup for d' Amico Ryan's and the, the defense he runs with the Texans against the Jaguars. Zone blocking scheme and you know, we saw that teams in this 02 spot, it's kind of a make or break spot for them this season. So. Yeah, would we be shocked? Chef, we're sitting here in the Texas are 03. We wouldn't be. But the amount of value you're getting on the line is them as a dog when they're clearly the better team of these two teams. To me it really sticks out about how far they have fallen because if they win that Bucks game, this is probably them minus two, minus two and a half. And Baker pulled the rabbit of the hat and now they're a a two point dog at a couple books one and a half dogs. So I love that you're lined up on this one with me here. I, I felt like you're a little hesitant on Tuesday. I see you've come around pretty big here as we head on Thursday show.
- [17:31]
Chad Millman
Well, you know what I also started thinking about and you're mentioning a lot of trends and we've talked about this. I love the trends as much as anybody, but also I, I feel like as I did my self scouting for from last year, I just let the trends lead the way for me instead of letting letting the trends help support ideas that I had. And so I'm trying to be more thoughtful about the trends this year and.
- [17:59]
Simon Hunter
I looked at Explain yourself about the trends. Every week I'm going to give trends. Chad, you don't need every week to explain yourself about the trends. Then don't.
- [18:05]
Chad Millman
Yeah, but I feel like I do because no one cares because I'm not, I'm not betting this based on the trends. All right, I'm betting this.
- [18:13]
Simon Hunter
Good for you. Then don't do that. Don't bet this game because it shows. I'm just letting people know that there's data that backs it up and there's trends early in the season here that backs up why this number is what it is.
- [18:22]
Chad Millman
Can I explain why I actually like the game?
- [18:25]
Simon Hunter
Why we're together just every week? Don't be like and here again, people. I don't really care about the trends. This is why I like the game. We get it. You don't care about trends. Okay.
- [18:33]
Chad Millman
I like the game and I, I do care about trends. I like the game because I look at this matchup and whatever we think of the Rams against the Eagles, they're a playoff caliber team. Whatever we think of the Bucks who might have gotten lucky in Week 1 against the Falcons and might have gotten lucky in Week 2 against the Texans, they're a Playoff caliber team. The Texans have now lost to two playoff caliber teams in relatively close games. The Jags beat themselves one week and then beat up on what might be one of the worst teams in the NFL in Week 1. So the reason why to play this game is because I think the team is probably more talented than the record shows versus a team that maybe isn't as talented as the record shows.
- [19:20]
Simon Hunter
Fair.
- [19:21]
Chad Millman
We can be on the same side and get there from different angles.
- [19:24]
Simon Hunter
I know. No more disclaimers though. We get it.
- [19:28]
Chad Millman
Pittsburgh at New England. New England is a one and a half point underdog. Look, I thought this would move towards the Pats. It's moved a little bit in the direction of the Steelers. As far as the Juice, I'm just really down on the Steelers and we talked about this on Tuesday. Their defense just isn't very good. I also think Rogers is pretty pedestrian. Christian Gonzalez, the Patriots defensive back, did practice this week, limited on Wednesday. Do I all of a sudden believe in Variable again? You've been telling me I have to believe in variable. Am I believing in Variable right now?
- [20:09]
Simon Hunter
I know it feels like we're supposed to in this spot, right? And I know that historically, you know, Tomlins actually struggled in this exact spot. And the trends, look at that and they're just like, okay. It shows that Tomlin on the as a favorite has struggled on the road. He's also struggled historically against his Patriots team. Doesn't matter if Belichick had Brady or, you know, Mac Jones or whoever in their quarterback. This has just never been a favorable spot. And Aaron Rodgers, surprisingly, owing to in his career playing against New England in New England. So, you know, for Abel, for me, I think we're in the alignment of. He does bring something to this team and that's going to show itself all season. It's really about us believing in Drake May if we're going to take this spot here, Chad. And that's, that's the toughest spot here for me, us putting this in the contest where I'm betting this. People want to know what side I'm on. I'm betting the Patriots. I'm on the Patriots. I like the number. I have him as a favorite. But Drake may, you know, best game his career, no doubt last week against Miami. But we talked Miami so bad and I go back and watch and it's like I see a lot of the good. We do see a lot of the bad. And what can give you pause and you know, this Steelers front, like we said, they're. They've got injuries and everything like that, but none of it really falls to tj. He's actually been pretty dominant this year, especially in the sense that you can't run to a side of the field. And there's just a lot that makes me nervous in this game, betting wise. But I just can't, I can't get over the fact, like you said, the Patriots are still a dog and it's moved up to one and a half. So we saw last week the professionals, they came in really heavy on the Steelers that we, we were talking three and a half on the Seahawks Sunday morning. So it's interesting that they're coming on their side again. I, I, I feel like we're on the same page. Like we just Rogers just looks like a quarterback that can't push the ball downfield and teams kind of know that and they're just stacking up the front against them in the defense. They can't stop the run. You expect to see a high dosage of Trevion Henderson, who, yeah, he doesn't look like he can pass block, but there's no denying how talented is when he gets the ball in his hand. So I, I see ways that pitchers attacking the Steelers team. But yeah, it's, it's tough for me to really, you know, slam the table here by this Patriots team and say it's one of my favorite bets.
- [22:27]
Chad Millman
Yeah, it's a tough Drake May is the conundrum. I'm just not, I'm not going to be fooled by how well he did against the Dolphins secondary because the week before he didn't look that good.
- [22:43]
Simon Hunter
But the Raiders might be a good defense too. That's the thing. It's like trying to give him the benefit of the doubt here where it's like this is a, this is a game.
- [22:51]
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- [23:17]
Colin Coward
Bring the Boom XBoom this is Colin Coward from the Colin coward podcast on Fox 1. Now you can stream your favorite live sport so you can be there live for the biggest moments. That means NFL Sundays and college football games, NASCAR Major League Baseball postseason and more with Fox 1. You get it all live Edge of your seat plays High octane moments and that feeling like you're right there in the action. Fox one we live for live streaming now.
- [23:50]
Movie Promoter
The movie to see this football season is him in theater September 19th produced by Jordan Peele and directed by Justin Tippen, the sports horror mashup stars Marlon Wayans plays Isaiah White, the greatest football player of all time with rings to prove it. Tariq Withers plays Cameron Cade, an up and comer and prodigy. Cam gets the offer of a lifetime when he's called upon by Isaiah to trade at his compound. Things get weird fast and Isaiah's training methods are a bit intense.
- [24:14]
Simon Hunter
This movie gives a whole new meaning.
- [24:16]
Movie Promoter
To God, family and football. Marlon Wayans is terrifying and Tariq Withers proves he has what it takes to be the goat. Me and your auto isn't all what is cracked up to be in him and and begs the question how far will you go? To be the greatest of all time, you have to be willing to sacrifice everything him his theater September 19th there's.
- [24:35]
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- [25:34]
Simon Hunter
Should be able to light up this secondary.
- [25:39]
Chad Millman
The Rams at the Eagles so This number is at 3 at Hard Rock Bet. I think it's trending towards 3. At most other places it's still at 3 and a half, but if you look at the the juice it's trending towards 3. I'm surprised that when we did some wise guy called the wise guy hotline that you were hearing all this love about the Eagles because I feel like the number of texts I've gotten this week about about the Rams and how much people Love the Rams. It's not throwing me off, but it's making me hope the number gets to three everywhere because I really want to bet the Eagles. So you're telling me that the sharp side here from the conversations you've had is Phil is Philadelphia.
- [26:34]
Simon Hunter
It could be true. Based on the number, right? Early in the week, almost everyone I talked to was on the ramp side when it was four, four and a half. So, yeah, I do think it's just based on the number. Right. Hard Rock now at three. I'd still take Eagles at three and a half, honestly, minus three and a half. I'm looking at this game as I get why you'd feel more confident about betting the Rams team, right? They look like an absolute juggernaut where you look at the Eagle stats. I mean, something crazy, right? Hertz hasn't thrown for over 140 yards or maybe it's 150. Whatever it is, it's a really low through two weeks per game and the offense looks like it's struggling. Everything's really tough to do. The Rams, they're coming off arguably their best performance of the McVeigh Stafford era, right? They were really putting it together and it's interesting how they forget how that team was totally out of sync and it kind of took a couple turnovers and things to get that juice flowing for them. And this actually is a bad spot historically for McVeigh and Stafford when they're playing against teams that are basically above.500 on the road together. As a dog, they're 5 and 9 against the spread in this exact spot. So this is a unique thing where they're pretty good actually traveling east. But as a dog against a really good team, they're bad in this spot historically. And that could just be about more about how we feel about where it's like. Well, if you look back, it probably makes sense where if you're getting Stafford and McVeigh as a four and a half, five point dog or a three point dog against a good team, you're probably going to be more inclined to take them because that's, you know, that's more likely than to cover that number. You feels like in your mind it's like they're just as good as this team they're playing. Why not take the dog? And I think that's what the public's doing here with professionals. And this feels like a little bit like the Chiefs last week where that felt like not the lazy pro number, but it did, right? The pros that were telling Me to take the Chiefs, it kind of felt a little lazy and just being like, well, it's Mahomes, he doesn't go own two. And other like little reasons like that where it's like, you know, this Rams team, they're just a better team right now. When you really dive into it, they're actually really bad against pass rush. Like their, their O line has major problems and it's been mitigated by Stafford and McVeigh and adding Adams and Puku playing out of his mind. Like there's ways to get around it. But you saw a little bit in that Houston game against a good defense, how much they struggled and the Eagles don't. Aren't going to kick three field goals against those Rams defense, which is what Houston did. So I, I feel like people are overreacting a little bit to this Rams team and overreacting. The Eagles struggle on offense, that it's just a complete team. They're. Their offense is behind the page right now. It's very simple and basic. But I think this is really about the Eagles defense, that this is a great matchup for them. And the fear of the second corner against Adams or Puka, whatever the, you know, whoever Jackson has to cover for the Eagles, that could be the major weakness we're overlooking here. But I just see so many holes on this offensive line of this ramp scene. I think the Eagles front's gonna be able to attack. And yeah, offensively, you know, we've seen it. This Rams team, they have a good front, but they cannot stop the run. And that's, that's not improved that much in my opinion. They got lucky. They faced two teams that just can't run the ball in the first two weeks. It's going to be a really interesting game. Where are we overreacting to this Rams team or am I underselling these Eagles struggles and their problems on offense and is that going to pop up here in this game? So I'm really excited for this one because it's going to tell us a lot about these two teams early on here where the Rams win this, they're going to be looked at as a very for real team right now where if they lose and the Eagles do win by three or four, whatever it is, I still think people are going to have their doubts about this Eagles team. So it's an interesting lineup and spot for both these teams.
- [30:22]
Chad Millman
Well, look, you nailed the dilemma here. Are the Eagles just a really good team that knows their roster, knows they're talented and is going to Build and build and build as the season goes on. A little bit like the Chiefs used to do, right when they were at their absolute peak, they would just get better and better as the season went on. They didn't. They didn't sweat any criticism. They didn't sweat how they looked when they were winning games early in the year. They knew that as the season went on, they were just going to get better and better. And then you have to ask yourself, are the Rams. Is there any sort of fraudulent framing for the Rams because they beat a Texans O line that isn't that great? They beat a Titan's O line that is really bad. And Stafford and Puka and Devonte found their rhythm when the Titans started giving the ball away. So I have the same questions you do. Like, I want to be on the Eagles here. I was kind of hoping you'd talk me out of it because I was.
- [31:29]
Simon Hunter
Thinking about once this number got to three at Hard Rock, I was like, we have to. We have to take this.
- [31:33]
Chad Millman
I'm gonna. I'm gonna bet the Eagles as soon as it gets to three, and it'll get there. You know, I'm in Connecticut, obviously. Here's my question. It's part of partly a joke, partly real. What would you set the line on? The Eagles being called for a penalty on a Tush push because they will be like, too much attention, too many calls from McVeigh to the home office, too much film going around about their false starts and, you know, whatever they're doing on the Tushbush, there's going to be a penalty called on the Tush push.
- [32:07]
Simon Hunter
The real question is, will it be called on the third and one or on a fourth and one?
- [32:11]
Chad Millman
Right. I'm, like, saying it jokingly, but I think it. I think there's potential impact here. Will it be called on a fourth and one at the goal line and does that take points off the board and that has an impact on the spread? And a short in a. When the number's so short. So I don't know how much I should be thinking about that.
- [32:28]
Simon Hunter
Well, both sides are being very petty, apparently. Eagles sent in film of basically the Chiefs is lining up in the neutral zone. Like, the entire time they did it. It's like all their heads and fingers and hands are in the neutral zone. So I think it's just both sides are being so petty. I don't know. The NFL, maybe they'll just let it be as it is and just be like, if this is totally on you guys for not voting this play out and we'll deal with it in the off season. So I'm with you. It's, it's. This is definitely. It feels like the highest level of hate that this touch push has had from people, ex referees and people in major positions at the NFL. So yeah, it's pretty interesting to see what you're saying is true where it's like, are they going to call on a third and one or we'll be fourth and one of the fourth and just totally kill what Chad's saying this bet we're making. But yeah, it's, it's, it's gonna be interesting what these refs do this week.
- [33:16]
Chad Millman
It's actually a great prop market that somebody should be creating like minus a thousand a penalty gets called, then maybe minus 700 to get called on third and 1. Minus 500. It's called on fourth and 1. Minus 300. It's called on third and what the goal line. Minus 200. It's called on fourth and one at the goal line. How many points will the. What's the. The over under on how many points the Eagles will lose out on because of penalties calls in the Tush push. You could create an entirely new derivative market on Eagles Tush push.
- [33:52]
Simon Hunter
Props and I'll give a one John Hurt stat here. That's just mind blowing. When he plays against a team above.500 and he's a favorite at home, he is 17 and 0 in his last 17 games. Straight up in this exact spot. So now that it's at three, I'm just saying it's, it's. How can you not bet the minus three and the Eagles, of course that's kind of stat. It's just. It might be ugly, you might win it close. But he just tends to win these exact games.
- [34:16]
Chad Millman
As he said to Chris Jones. Right?
- [34:20]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [34:21]
Chad Millman
Clip. Indy got up to four and a half on the road at Tennessee at hard. Rockets back down to three and a half.
- [34:29]
Simon Hunter
Wow.
- [34:30]
Chad Millman
Yeah. I gotta tell you, are we feeling regretful because we were pretty high in the Colts on Tuesday and did we. Were we too excited about what we have seen and did we make a mistake?
- [34:48]
Simon Hunter
No, I'm. I'm happy we got the three. I think that's what our excitement was. The fact that that's why I love our Sunday night show. It's. We're literally doing live lines after an insane week of football. And that's usually the first or second time me and Chad are even seeing these live lines. Right. Because they're coming out live while we're on the show. To me, that's what we're excited about. Right. A good initial read. And if you did take the minus three and a half depends what state you live in, that's not that terrible read either because most books are still four and a half on this line. So to me, the reason you're hesitant about it is it's. Yeah. It's just so public. Right. Like this is when we know all the trends. Everything else was going to point to this Tennessee team. And like I gave that crazy stat the since 2011 when the winless teams in week three, they're a divisional dog. When the total is less than 45, 13, 0. Tennessee's in there. Tennessee literally fits that trend. So it's historically a nice spot for this team in week three that, you know, they tend to bounce back. But when you look at the underlying issues, Chad, that's why I, I can't get over it with this Tennessee team is they cannot stop the run. And Taylor, as great as Daniel Jones has looked. He has. Taylor has been the biggest life force reading like birthed into this Colts team of. Yeah, he's got a passing game now. There's not a safety down in the box. He's running against a normal front. You've seen him explode at that backfield. And the way they're using Warren, all this stuff on their offense, it's like I can see it carrying the books are basically setting this line, being like, show us. Because we've seen this time and time again. Time you start 2,0 really hot, look incredible and then falter against a team that hasn't looked that great in week three. Right. That's just football. Like football being really good three, four weeks in a row. Yes. That's normal for a Josh Allen Lamar. The list might stop right there. Maybe you could say Mahomes like when he had the weapons, but just quarterbacks to be consistent three, four weeks straight. That's what. That's. It just doesn't happen. That's what. That's the difference between these great quarterbacks and ones that are bad. And that's. This number is basically saying that to Daniel Jones. It's like, show us. So the books, professionals alike, they're going to be coming in on that Tennessee side because it is a great spot, a great number. And sure, Colts are going to win. They're not going to win by more than a field goal is what the books are saying here. So I do find this number fascinating. When it moved over four and a half that Made sense to me. I can't believe it's come back down. Like, to me, four and a half. The professionals would bet it, but you just keep it there. The four and a half. The book, we're still going to take the Colts of four and a half, so pretty interesting. The Hard Rock and a couple other books have moved it back to three and a half. That's, that's really respected money. That's moved it down because it's, this is early in the week still Thursday here, like, this is like when they win all their, you know, Bills, teasers, whatever they're doing tonight, all that money is going to come back in on this cold side. So it could go back up. But if you want the Colts number, I, I would be shocked to ever see it get back to three, I think minus three and a half right now, as low as it gets.
- [37:59]
Chad Millman
What you just said is really interesting about the Titans. There's times to bet the dogs in the division in a spot almost blindly. We're doing it a little bit with the Texans. We're going to talk about the Broncos too. With the Titans. What's giving me hesitancy, and we talked about this on Tuesday, was Jonathan Taylor against this defensive line and this defense overall that is giving up A League worst 5.4 yards per carry. Shane Steichen is calling good plays right now and understanding how to keep Daniel Jones within the framework of his comfort zone. Part of that is just giving the ball to Jonathan Taylor at the right time, who's looked amazing. And so that to me is what I'm holding. That's, that's the handrail on the roller coaster for me right now is this rushing game against a really bad Titans rushing defense. That's it.
- [38:59]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's like I said, it's just, it's, they're just saying, show me Daniel Jones. Because right now he's like statistically the second or third best quarterback in football. Like him against the blitz, all of it, his numbers are incredible. Him and Steichen are just so in line running this offense. So like you said, it's, it's really interesting. By the book, they're kind of taking a stand here and the fact that this number's coming back down, it's, they're feeling pretty confident, clearly. But I, I, I still, I'm still believing our position. But like you said, I don't know if I'm gonna be making us force this one in. I'm kind of, I kind of learned our lesson last week with Dallas that I'm not gonna try to force in the super super chalk favorite of the week.
- [39:38]
Chad Millman
Exactly that. That's as I'm thinking about our game plan for Sunday. I'm not loving anyone that's super chalky. And so it's very possible we're in there with five underdogs and we're gonna have to live with that. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. Open up the Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook app. You'll see why it's top rated with thousands of five star reviews. If you've ever been to a Hard Rock hotel or casino casino, you know they treat you right. Do yourself a favor and check out the Hard Rock Bet app for a world class betting experience. It's week three, but if you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet, there's still time for you to get 150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a five dollar bet and if it hits, you get not only your winnings but 150in bonus bets. Thursday night kicks off a big week of football with Miami vs. Buffalo. Listen to these streaks from Hard Rock Bet Stats hub. You can find live odds bet on all these streaks in the Hard Rock Bat app. The Bills won nine straight home games against the Dolphins. Buffalo's won 12 in a row at home against division opponents the Dolphins. Devon HN has had 56 or more rushing yards the the last four times he's played the Bills. He's found the end zone in five straight games against divisional opponents. If you want to see what other people are betting on from now through this weekend, the Hard Rock Bet app shows you trending parlays, the most bet player props, top picked upsets and more. Just download the app and all this info is a tap away. Let's take a look at a few possible upset alerts for Saturday's college football slate right now on the Hard Rock Bet app. Here are some hot dogs. Underdogs pick to win straight up. Maryland is a training pick right now. Go Terps. They're off to a 30 start, but they're still big underdogs on the road at Wisconsin. Purdue to knock off Notre Dame. Notre Dame is already off to a nightmare start, but a lot of Hard Rock betters are betting on Purdue to make it even worse. Even though ND is the massive favorite in this run, Hard RockBet has new promos every day this week. There's profit boosts for five straight days of football. That's a Thursday night profit Boost a Friday college profit boost Another profit boost for Saturday's college games, plus NFL profit boosts for Sundays games and Monday night. Every Thursday on Hard Rock Bet. You also get legendary reward drops. Drops full of rewards like bonus bets, parlay insurance and more. Open up your drop in time for this weekend's games and see what you get. Hard Rock Bet is the only legal sports book in the state of Florida and is also available in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois and Colorado, with more states launching all the time. Head over to Hard Rock Bet, sign up and make your first deposit today. These are payable in bonus bets, not a cash offer. Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 and over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 118-88- admit it in Indiana, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809 with it gambling problem, call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia, Denver plus two and a half at the Chargers, two and a half at Hard Rock bat touched three for a second the other day, but generally just been sitting at two and a half. This was your Simon says you were mostly worried that this would be a wise guy play and move to two or less. But yet from my conversation with you so far, feels like you are. You are very enthusiastic about the Denver Broncos at two and a half. Feels like that's the feedback we've gotten. I have bet the Broncos. I think I got him a three for a hot second the other day. I'm kind of riding with you on this. Like I'm riding the trend and I'm riding you.
- [44:14]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, because it doesn't feel good to be bet on Bo Nicks right now for being no, like there's a lot of underlying numbers and different things he's doing right now that you see defenses have adjusted to him, but you see the chess match with Sean Payton. He's adjusting back and there's some things he hasn't shown either that he's pulled out this year with him and that has obviously kept them in the games and they probably should be 2 0. Like that's the most interesting part to me. And I think it's all about expectations. Right. The Chargers lose their starting tackle expectations, people immediately move them out of the playoffs. Really doubted them. They go to Brazil, look dominant against a Chiefs team and then the Raiders, I mean, it wasn't even Herbert's best game, right? He kind of fade in that second half. I think they scored three points. Well, their defense was so dominant against the Raiders. It's all love for this Chargers team. Like, this is to me what we talked about with the peak early in the season here. People think they know these teams. They're, oh my God, this is it, right? Herbert's finally that guy. He's got the confidence, he's got the coach, he's got the defense, he's got the offensive weapons. He's putting it all together. It's September. Like, can we just take it, take a beat here? Like, that's what, that's why people, the people who are the Herbert truthers and they act like someone like me is a Herbert hater, where it's like, I've been nothing but showing love to this guy and bet him. I love Ben Herbert in certain spots, but it's just too much a reaction to him where it's like people want to crown him so quick because no one doubts the arm talent. We've all seen the talent. Now athletic is like no one, no one thinks Herbert isn't one of the best, most highly talented players in football. Our knock on him is just the closing out of games and how he isn't late in the games. And against the Chiefs, you saw that killer, like, it was incredible in that second half. He outplayed Mahomes and was the better quarterback in that day. Against the Raiders, you saw the fear, inconsistent, the bad throwing when there was no run game. There was just nothing there in the second half. Like, that's why they were so lucky with Gino, just having a meltdown. My view of this Denver team is their defense isn't as bad as people think. They just ran into a juggernaut with that Colts team who they held to five field goals like they only scored two touchdowns. Now, they did score on every job, but it's like, you know, Sean Payne, that defense, that's a bender break type of defense. That's a, that's a win any day. If you're having a team that can move the ball, but you're holding them to three every time, that's a big deal. And this is just a bad spot. Like when I look at it, they are playing a Chargers team that was in Brazil, flew back and then played another primetime game was at 10 o' clock at night against the Raiders on a short week. So two weird games, short week in this exact spot. Since 2023 teams in this exact spot playing two prime games. Now they're playing another game within six days that, you know, isn't that great of a spot. So they're playing the Chargers playing Denver here. The Chargers are 1 in 7 against the spread in the sack spot or just teams in general since 2023. Just shows teams do get burned out, right? That, that. That's why I love those type of trends where it shows you that early in the year here, these teams that play multiple prime time games and now they're on a short week. That is a lot to ask. And we talked about Denver. This is like the dream spot. They're 0 and 2 against the spread. Everyone's left them for dead. Like people that were hyping them up, they're just burned. They're mad no one's gonna be betting them. That's why, like, I was hoping we would get three and a half, three on the show because I'm like, oh, oh, my God, I love it. It was going up to three. I think as soon as we got done our show, I talked a little bit about that. It's like, yeah, yeah, this, the, the vibes are just so high for the Chargers where we know what we're doing here, right? This is another spot. We might be stepping in it, but it's like all the signals are flashing here in this week 3. All the trends point to this Broncos team and then just going on field their D line. I mean, the Raiders have a really good D line too. Like, they obviously dominate on the run. I think you're going to see the same thing here. Like this is going to be a really great front for this Denver team that they got embarrassed last week against this Colts. I don't think you see that again this week. So you've seen it time and time again that this is. Tends to be a good spot for these divisional teams. Like we talked about that trend earlier and you see just the overreaction for the public where this probably should be closer to one to a pick, but it's all the way up to two and a half three at a lot of books. And that's. That's crossing two key numbers. So very confident this number. And just a long. Another time we talk about these spots, these early in the year, week three trends, they all point to this Denver team, but just on the field stuff that you want to see and love. Chad, I think that really sparks here with this Denver team, this matchup, that it's going to be close. It's Going to be ugly. But I, I do think this is peak overrating of this Chargers team. And as two weeks in this is by low as you can get on the Stanford team, just everyone's off of them. And just look at the splits. I'm sure you've seen it's just all Chargers money and tickets as well.
- [49:11]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I'm with you. I feel pretty good about this one. This, this feels like it's as much of a lock as we can have for making it into the contest.
- [49:23]
Simon Hunter
And I even said, sorry, this is their third straight divisional game, which I, I know people are like, why does that matter? I think it's a big deal because these divisional games are so intense because these teams know how much these matter in December, like these games September. Sure, you can say they don't matter when it's out of division in division, it is such a big deal. And the data backs it up as well that teams, when they play in the last 20 years, teams that play three straight divisional games, they're one in six against the spread in this exact spot. Two and five straight up. And they're failing to cover by 10 points in this exact spot. So come on.
- [50:01]
Chad Millman
You just sounded so Philly when you were. Your accent was like. And it reminded me there's a new show on, I think HBO called Task. It's by the same people. Dude. It's same people who did Mayor of Easttown. So my wife and I watched it last night and the accents are not to be trifled with. They're so, so good. But we also, before we watched the show, we had to watch the SNL Murder Durder sketch where they're making fun of Mayor of Easttown. It's so brilliant. It's just so. It just puts you in such a good mood. But that accent almost becomes impossible to not laugh at because it's so specific. And you just sounded like you were in Murder Dirder Land. Listen, Dallas at Chicago. Chicago on Tuesday was a one and a half point favorite. Now at Hard Rock, they're one point dogs. Other places, one and a half. You chastised me for not choosing the Bears. Thank God you didn't on Tuesday. And I'm glad I waited, brother.
- [51:13]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [51:14]
Chad Millman
This is how much betters hate Caleb Williams. Maybe they. Maybe they hate the Bears defense. You know, the Bears, our dogs. The world is against my hometown of Chicago. It's time to make the Chicago Bears our brass balls bet of the week. Look, I'm trying to be reasonable about this. I've sent all the Charts about how Caleb is, you know, identical to Josh Williams and his stats through these number of games to my buddies, to my son. I've ignored the charts to yourself. I've. Listen. I've ignored the charts that say he's also identical to Mitch Trubisky through this number of games in his career. I just don't really get why the number has moved so much for the Cowboys, who basically allowed Russell Wilson to have the greatest game of his career. That. That's what I'm betting on. It's more than Caleb bounce back or anything else. It's the number move too far. Give me the team that's the dog on the move across the across zero.
- [52:28]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And it's, it's going to be the reason pros love Dak. Here is going to be something you hate, Chad, because of the trends and all the old data and like you basically dive into the numbers. This, this is not the best spot for this Bears team. And that's why I think this is our big balls bed of the week.
- [52:46]
Chad Millman
Yep.
- [52:47]
Simon Hunter
Because it's our brass balls. Because it's, it's because when you get.
- [52:51]
Chad Millman
Kicked in the dick, you got to have brass balls. Otherwise it's gonna hurt.
- [52:56]
Simon Hunter
And it's just a game. I knew, I knew we were gonna love it. Coming in like them as a favorite, obviously the dog. Now I can't avoid it. Now it's like I have to love this one. And yeah, it's really the, the fear here. What we're betting into is what Chad talked on Caleb Williams vs. Dak. At the end of the day, that's what this game is. That's why people that knock on a QB's being mill win stat and all. There's all these other pieces. No, this is the exact reason Windsor QB stat because both these teams are not good. Like defensively there's, there's weaknesses both sides. Offensively, we've seen that when these quarterbacks can get it together in their systems, they have weapons like there is. There is high upside. Offensively, it's the defenses that give us pause. But I think the Bears defense, I know it's crazy. I think they are better than this Dallas defense. And especially with injuries, Dallas sat in the DAC stuff is what I think anyone out there, I'll give you the Dax side of this. Why? If you do want to avoid this game, totally understand. This is what Dak does. Dak does great against bad teams. Right. In his career, he's 30, 39 and 12. Straight up 77 versus teams under 500. So this is technically a DAX spot. He's playing against a bad team under 500 and you know when those teams have just lost by more than nine points. Chad, he's 24. Six straight up and 14 three since 2020 in this exact spot. So he beats up on bad defenses, which that's what that stat tells me. Like teams that have bad defenses, he beats them up. Caleb stats are terrifying too. And 1pm starts in his career. Chad, I'm sure you've seen this. I've seen tons of Bears fans posting it. In his career, he is over 7 losing by 11 points per game in this exact spot. So we are going against all of that because our view of is this numbers move too much. They were I believe minus three on the look ahead and now it shifted. Like Chad said, there's books out there plus one and a half. So it shifted four and a half points.
- [55:00]
Chad Millman
It's crazy.
- [55:01]
Simon Hunter
Crazy. So we're. We're betting on that. We're betting on the overreaction. The lines move too much. Hard Rock is plus one. Go get the one and a half. Get the hook. Because I could easily see Bears up to with 30 seconds left and outdoors somehow with the wind at his back. The kicker for Dallas kicks off 70 yarder. And it's just, you know, Aubrey is the optimal weapon. Like when I think of special teams guys. So we need that one and a half because when they move to that I go, oh my God, the books are telling us something six about to happen here. Because honestly, as a favorite, Caleb's amazing. The trends love him as a favorite in this exact spot. The issue is the numbers flipped and I think it's going to stay flipped like the the pros have come in now on Dallas as a dog. I don't think it gets back to that. So that's why we're making our brass balls. We're literally going against the pros here and the public. We're just back in the books here. This is really. Very few pros are on the side and this is a game where I, I love it for all the wrong reasons. I maybe be a little too overrated on Caleb. I just think the public is just so overreacting to this Bears team and they just walk into a buzzsaw last week where Dallas, they felt like they used up nine of their lives last week. Like they're just coming off an insane win. You expect a letdown. But I hated all these trends that support dak first bad teams. Jen. I know I mean, you don't want to say it, but I think we both know the Bears, they're a bad team.
- [56:32]
Chad Millman
Simon, there is so much hate for Caleb Williams right now it almost feels irrational. Right. The talk about benching him, the talk about inaccuracies, the level of denigration happening for Caleb Williams nationally. A I know it's clearly something that everyone's engaging with. Right. Otherwise the big shows wouldn't be doing it. It wouldn't be the topic of conversation across every media outlet unless producers saw some kind of spike when we're talking about bashing Caleb Williams. I don't love this spot for Caleb Williams. I'm actually just betting the number.
- [57:18]
Simon Hunter
Like me too.
- [57:18]
Chad Millman
It moved too much. I'm getting a point and a half for a team that like you just said had been a field goal favorite in the look ahead lines which weren't that long ago. So like great, give me a four and a half point swing. Give me the underdog one and a half. Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants. You said at the beginning of the of the show wise guys don't like this. Don't like this play. I bet the Chiefs -5 and a half after say the packers and maybe the Colts, it could be the chalkiest play of the week. Like obviously not sharp. Whatever sort of love the pros have for the Giants has been outweighed here by the market love for the Chiefs because the number has moved in their direction at six at Hard Rock. Right now I got to stick with it. I've already put my money down not buying out.
- [58:18]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. For sharper square. This is our square bet of the week. No doubt about it. This chief side and do you think.
- [58:23]
Chad Millman
It'S more square than the Colts?
- [58:27]
Simon Hunter
No, because again we gave it out on a minus three. We're not making you take the minus three and a half at the Chiefs at minus five and a half which is still out there. Like Chad decided a couple of very public books you must grab and you must join us in this brutal, brutal loss we're about to suffer. But I just see same thing with, you know, Dallas last week. Like we had no chance of that six, but we did and it feels the same here this Chiefs where I just I there's gonna be one or two plays that dictates this spread. At the end of the day we always know that that's football. But this also will easily be chief roll blowout. And our fear here is that it's like pros I've talked to is that they just don't have the guns. Right. They don't have the guys on the outside, this Chiefs team that really blow out and roll these teams. And that's the pause, the hesitation with the number and the six and a half. That's the sharp side. You, you want to pick a side. You have no dog in this fight yet. I am with Chad. I'm a supportive friend. I will back him because I also bet it. I bet the five and a half on the Chiefs. But the sharp side, the professional side, they're going to be on the Giants at six and a half just because that's a big number. It's the Sunday night game. All the parlays, all the teasers, everything is going to be tied to this Chiefs team. There is no world. This Chiefs team goes over three. Maybe me and Chad will have him. Our survivor, the absolute killer of killers, this Chiefs team. But yes, it's, it's, it's a unique spot and if we weren't in the year of chalk these last couple years. But it's just the favorites just always win. They might not cover, but they always win. Okay, the Chiefs will win this one. But you know, even five years ago, this was the trap of all traps. This Chiefs team.
- [60:09]
Chad Millman
Just because five years ago we're not even having five years ago.
- [60:13]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's Giants autoplay five years ago.
- [60:15]
Chad Millman
It's okay. Giants next. Right, that's it.
- [60:18]
Simon Hunter
So it's trying to adjust for the times here. And on this number it's, it's pretty glaring how, how much money is coming to the Chiefs team because same thoughts we had Sunday night. It's just. In what world are the Chiefs going over three, Especially against this Kansas City team that you saw in week one. If they play against a good defense, they're going to struggle offensively. Russell Wilson will not be throwing those 50, 50 balls. But yeah, neighbors, he's the ultimate cheat. Good. So I, I get it. But this, the, the five and a half, it is still out there. I would still grab it on this Chiefs team. I still believe in that number in this side. For this Chief side.
- [60:52]
Chad Millman
Yeah, it's. You know Andrew Thomas, by the way, we thought he was sort of the key to why we. One of the reasons why we like the Cowboys so much last year he's been active but limited in practice this week. Didn't play last. It's a, it's a big deal. Right? So I don't love it. I don't love it. I don't love it as much as I did the other day when I said I loved it. Yeah, I'm getting a little skittish. I, I like, I'm already annoyed that I'm gonna have to stay up late on Sunday night to watch it. I'm so tired at the end of Sundays. Like I, I don't know.
- [61:30]
Simon Hunter
This is when you have to watch the end because it's not, there's no way this chief seem to be wrong him by like 25 in the second.
- [61:35]
Chad Millman
Right, Right. Exactly. Like it's gonna he but it's gonna matter and I, I can already see it. You know, this is what the Chiefs do. They're up four with four minutes left and they go into their four minute drill and you know, they take it down to 45 seconds, punt the ball, the Giants have, you know, have to score the touchdown and nothing, either nothing happens or there's a, there's a turnover and the Chiefs just fall because they're well coached and you know, ends up being four. That if that happens, if that happens on Tuesday show someone should stop settling for weak sound.
- [62:18]
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- [62:46]
Colin Coward
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- [63:15]
Movie Promoter
The movie to see this football season is him in theater September 19th. Produced by Jordan Peele and directed by Justin Tippen, this sports horror mashup stars Marlon Wayne plays Isaiah White, the greatest football player of all time with rings to prove it. Tariq Willis plays Cameron Caden, up and comer and protege. Cam gets the offer of a lifetime when he's called upon by Isiah to trade at his compound. Things get weird fast that Isiah's training methods are a bit intense.
- [63:39]
Simon Hunter
This movie gives a whole new meaning.
- [63:41]
Movie Promoter
To God, family and football. Marlon Wayans is terrifying and Tariq Willis proves he has what it takes to be the goat me and your auto isn't all what it's cracked up to be in him and and begs the question how far will you go? To be the greatest of all time, you have to be willing to sacrifice everything him his theater September 19th tired.
- [63:59]
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- [64:59]
Chad Millman
Send me my flowers because I just nailed how we're going to lose this game quickly. I want to talk about Detroit at Baltimore only because we liked it at first five and a half. On Tuesday it's at four and a half. At Hard Rock it's trending down significantly. A lot of public a lot of sharp money coming in on the Lions. I feel good about the bet that we made at five and a half and I don't really have much more to say about that. I don't know if you have thoughts if you feel like it needs to be in the contest. The number moving has sort of changed it for me in terms of this conversation.
- [65:33]
Simon Hunter
I just have other games I love more this week that have really jumped out and have better line value and my confidence honestly in the lines bet was just really about the line. At some point especially if this dips to 4 I would probably be be on this Ravens team where you know I I still have questions about that lines. I know as great as they looked against the Bears I do have questions. My my big thing though is the reason I'm not slamming the table with this Ravens team is can the Ravens exploit that offensive line of Detroit lines. I don't know if they have the guys up front that can really do that. So I, I, I like that you brought this game up because the line has moved so much. But, yeah, for me, I just. There's no scenario. I see us really break this one down Sunday and putting in our contest. I just. I. Compared to other games, this game is not even on the board. Really, for me, how much I bet compared to other games.
- [66:21]
Chad Millman
All right, well, that's a good transition. What's your biggest bet?
- [66:27]
Simon Hunter
Well, this week's a little weird. Like, I always talk. Some weeks I'll have, like, two or three games I really lock in on. I'm honestly, Chad, I'm at like six or seven games I've, like, bet pretty heavy into. And it's like we talked about. It's. It's scary because there's just all these ugly dogs. And like, even this tonight, I somehow ended up on this Miami side. I don't know what happened. It's like, how do I. I found, like, five different tickets to me betting Miami at 12 and a half and 12, and it's like, what am I doing? Why am I betting? Why am I doing this? And, like, it's just. There's so many dogs this week that it's. They're undervalued and the numbers just move too much. So, yeah, for this week right now, my biggest bets. I'll start with the grossest one. No one's going to bet it but Panthers. I got to do it a five and a half, six if you can find it. It's just too much. And for me, I've just been betting too much on it. Where I can't stop betting the Panthers. I just. I don't know. I just can't get over this Falcons team. Just not. I just think they're overrated. I think panic's overrated. So I'm definitely gonna eat these words. This Panthers team is not good. They're banged up well. Another game I'm not going to make us force into our contest because there's just other games that I bet way bigger on that I like more. Texans is number one, Broncos number two. And we talk about the Browns. You can still find. There's one book out there, eight and a half Bennett. Pretty heavy. When we get off this call, I'm literally going right down to AC Might even go to the Hard Rock and get that. Eagles minus three. So that might not be another really big bet for me. And I bought out of two positions pretty heavily. I was on 49ers. I bought out of that. I'm on the Cardinals. The Cardinals are up to, like, plus three at a couple books. You know, Hard Rock Here is in. Jersey's got plus two and a half plus plus two and it keeps bouncing around. I think it's gonna go up to plus three if Purdy does get cleared. I just. I like that number. I know the injuries they have to their secondary and how banged up there, but I just doesn't feel like Purdy's rushing back a little bit here. And it's like, yeah, it's. He's gonna be hobbled, not his full self and he needs his mobility. So that line jumped out to me just before we go. And the other one we didn't really talk about that. I bet pretty heavy into is the Saints seven and a half. I really like it. I've tempered back my betting on it just because I think. I think we might have to have Seahawks in our Survivor pool. Like we'll talk about it here after this. But I know it sounds stupid tempered back bets, but I hate being on both sides and, you know, rooting against myself while trying to cover the spread. So I do like the Saints still. People are gonna ask why we didn't really have that one forced in. When it comes to the big dogs, I feel more comfortable taking the Browns at their number. So it's like shop around. I. I just. My, my bet on the Saints really is about the number. But I, I have no confidence in Spencer Rather. I don't know if you've gone back and watched him for all the good he flashed and they're a week one again. He just. It was totally gone last week. There's just some. He's just so bad. I don't think he's ever won a game. Right. Is that he has not won again. Right. So. Yeah. Well, we can get to survive here. There's just. There's so many options this week Survivor and it's. It's making my head spin. I don't know about you.
- [69:42]
Chad Millman
It is. We're going to get to Survivor in a second. We've got to do our round robin underdog Moneyline run round robin underdog parlay. Texans, Denver, Chicago.
- [70:03]
Simon Hunter
Love them.
- [70:04]
Chad Millman
We gotta put someone a little bit longer in there. But I'm not loving the Browns.
- [70:12]
Simon Hunter
Can. What can I get you on the Panthers?
- [70:17]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I can do the Panthers. No problem.
- [70:19]
Simon Hunter
Okay. Because they're. Let me check with their live number is +200. That's. That's. That's good value.
- [70:27]
Chad Millman
Then we need one more.
- [70:30]
Simon Hunter
Honestly. 1. Coming into the show, I wanted to do the Rams after seeing that stat by about Hertz in this exact spot. I Couldn't get there. Should we just do it? Should we keep riding the Bengals? Train your your love like that's a weird game.
- [70:46]
Chad Millman
We didn't talk about the Bengals. No, I actually feel great about the Bengals.
- [70:51]
Simon Hunter
Of plus I'm on the Vikings, but I have no read on this game.
- [70:55]
Chad Millman
I just feel like the Vikings.
- [70:57]
Simon Hunter
You're probably right.
- [70:58]
Chad Millman
You know, they've got so many injuries.
- [71:01]
Simon Hunter
I know.
- [71:03]
Chad Millman
Forget about Carson Wentz and you know, is Kevin o' Connell a quarterback whisperer? Who knows?
- [71:09]
Simon Hunter
But Jake Browning might be awful, though. Like he. I know he had good throws and.
- [71:13]
Chad Millman
Jake Browning might be awful. Jake Browning also has the confidence of this team and at the end of the day, I don't know. He's throwing in Jamar Chase and Jamar Chase looks. Even the worst quarterback look decent.
- [71:24]
Simon Hunter
That's true.
- [71:25]
Chad Millman
And he can overcome turnovers because he's got Jamar Chase. So we're not going to do anything with it. But yeah, let's put the Bengals.
- [71:33]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. All right, let's throw them in.
- [71:35]
Chad Millman
What about our moneyline round robin moneymaker the favorite?
- [71:41]
Simon Hunter
Yes. So let's, let's get Chalky with. Let's go Colts. All right. They might not cover their winning that game. We believe in Danny Jones, Indiana Jones and that Colts team. Chiefs, Chiefs, eagles. So that's three right there. What are the books? Bucks.
- [72:00]
Chad Millman
Bucks are seven. I don't mind the bucks there.
- [72:04]
Simon Hunter
Minus 360. That's. Yeah. It's not terrible.
- [72:09]
Chad Millman
What about. We got Colts, Chiefs, Eagles need one more bucks.
- [72:17]
Simon Hunter
I mean, we're just trying to be safe and win people money. I just. Seahawks don't lose that game. Sam Ronald is not losing to the Saints in that spot.
- [72:27]
Chad Millman
I was thinking Seahawks are Packers, so let's go with Seahawks survivor. I agree with you about Seattle. I want to do the Chiefs.
- [72:42]
Simon Hunter
The thing is though, it feels like.
- [72:45]
Chad Millman
Oh my God, that could be a prime time fiasco.
- [72:49]
Simon Hunter
Yes. And it's. The difference is even if the Chiefs don't have good matchups later in the year, which they don't, honestly, at least we're getting. We expect a healthy Chiefs offense at that point that will be in some type of rhythm. Same with their defense. Where the Seahawks. I'm looking at either schedule put up right now. I. I don't know their easy game. We take them again like they're at Tennessee on November 23rd. Do we expect that to be a good spot for the Seahawks? Yeah, it's the Seahawks defense against a rookie quarterback. That's a pretty good matchup. That's another game I could really find for them like the rest of their schedule. They're at Carolina and 28 December. Like they have a couple of really late ones, but to me, this is the best opportune time for the Seahawks team. Everyone, they're all, they're healthy, their defense is, you know, playing really well, especially the start the season these last two weeks and we've seen this Saints team, the weaknesses, but yeah, those, those two jumped out. I know we got a lot of questions about the Bills. Right. A lot of people are taking the Bills tonight. I don't hate it. I get it. Right. I think Josh Allen, what is he some crazy stat? Is he 80 or 71 against Tua in his career? Yeah, he's never lost to him at home. So that's fair. Like that's a fair time to use the Bills. I just, I feel like we could save the Bills for later in the season and like, I'm just, I don't know when else again I would use the Seahawks again. So it's up to you, brother. If you, if you want to go Seahawks, that's, that's one I prefer. If you, if you want to go the other way and go Chiefs, I get it. Because again, I don't know if you have the schedule up for the Chiefs. I'm trying to find when we play them again late in the year, they're at Dallas and you know, what's that? November 27th, they're at Tennessee, the 21st.
- [74:37]
Chad Millman
Look, part of, part of my calculus here is I don't, I don't expect this thing to go into December. Like, you know, most of these things don't last that long.
- [74:49]
Simon Hunter
Well, that's why you've never won. As someone who's won them, you got to do this. We were thinking a long term, baby, we're going to win this thing. Chad, don't have doubt yet.
- [74:57]
Chad Millman
No, I don't. I don't have doubt. I'm just saying, like, I'm not plan ahead. I'm not that worried about saving for, for. I'm not worried about saving for week 16 or 17 when we're getting December. Like, I want to save for week 13, week 14, which is around.
- [75:14]
Simon Hunter
You have a lot of games that you all like. You have to, you have to try. That's why I had to weed out which one to take here because we like all. I mean, I think we all like three of these. Like, we like the Bills. We like, totally. We like, we like the Seahawks. So. Yeah, I'll leave it up to you. Whatever one you want to go because you let me.
- [75:28]
Chad Millman
Let's go with Seattle. Let's do Seattle Seahawks. All right, Sharp versus Square. This is not a good run for me right now. Who would you like to take?
- [75:42]
Simon Hunter
Oh, God, I can't double down. I honestly would probably go Denver again. I just feel like that's such a sharp side. I'm going to go this other sharp side, in my opinion. Texans.
- [75:56]
Chad Millman
All right.
- [75:56]
Simon Hunter
Plus one and a half or plus one, whatever Hard Rock is.
- [75:59]
Chad Millman
Okay, man. I don't know if I should be on the Browns or do I want the Eagles at the minus three.
- [76:12]
Simon Hunter
That's a nice number at the.
- [76:14]
Chad Millman
At Hard Rock.
- [76:15]
Simon Hunter
I. As a. As someone that's terrified of your picks, I do want you to stay away from my Eagles in the TR segment. I'm not going to lie. You're due.
- [76:24]
Chad Millman
I am due.
- [76:25]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [76:28]
Chad Millman
I've wanted to be on the Eagles all week. If this is the best I'm going to get for minus three, I'm taking the Eagles minus three. Let me quickly round up what we're. What we're pinpointing for Sunday, make sure we're on the same page for that conversation. I think we're going to have to have a conversation about the Browns just based on the number of games that we have that we're both sort of aligning on. The Browns, the Texans, the Eagles, Denver, those feel like four that we're. We're locking in on. And then it's the Colts, it's the Bears, and that's kind of. It feels like we've narrowed it down to six, so we're gonna have to choose a final one. Am I missing anyone?
- [77:19]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, Patriots. We'll see how we feel. Oh, yeah, that's right.
- [77:21]
Chad Millman
That's right.
- [77:22]
Simon Hunter
Again. I'm. I'll be in the books all weekend. I'll have a stronger opinion about it. But, like, right now I'm. I'm really dugging on those spots. I'm hoping I can talk to people that talk me off some of these lines because I'm like, I feel like this is a really good week. I love so many of these games and I get, I guess the general public. That's terrifying to someone like me. It's like, this is really exciting. These are. You look for these weeks, these opportunities and yeah, just. It's the best. Right? The. We all overreact so much, the first two weeks and all the numbers coming out and that's why I love bed and football. It's it's the more you know, the less you know. That's the best part about we do here.
- [78:01]
Chad Millman
All right, we'll be back. This has been sharp or square part of the Volume Podcast Network. We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube on Sunday morning as you eavesdrop on a very intimate conversation between me and Simon in which we will panic, make utterly human decisions and regret the rest of the day. Then we will be back on Sharper Square YouTube Sunday night, 7:30ish PM Eastern. Really, when the last late afternoon game ends. To recap all that misery, watch or listen on YouTube @Sharpersquare. Like the video, subscribe to the channel. Also download some Spotify Apple Pods wherever you get your pods rate, Review, subscribe. Leave us 5 stars. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.
- [78:46]
Colin Coward
This is Colin Coward from the Colin coward podcast on Fox 1. Now you can stream your favorite live sport so you can be there live for the biggest moments. That means NFL Sundays and college football games, nascar, Major League Baseball, postseason and more. With Fox one, you get it all live Edge of your seat plays, high octane moments and that feeling like you're right there in the action. Fox 1 We live for live streaming now.
- [79:15]
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Chad Millman
That's TiVo plus live news, reality movies, and more.
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Chad Millman
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Chad Millman
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