SHARP NFL Week 3 Bets: Cowboys-Bears, Chiefs-Giants, Rams-Eagles, Steelers-Patriots & more

Sharp or Square – NFL Week 3 Bets (September 18, 2025)

Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Podcast: Sharp or Square (iHeartPodcasts & The Volume)
Theme: Deep dive into NFL Week 3 betting angles to distinguish "sharp" (pro) vs. "square" (public) bets, with a focus on divisional dogs, market overreactions, and contest picks.

Episode Overview

This week, Chad and Simon dig into the sharpest and squarest sides of the NFL Week 3 slate, dissecting bookmaker moves, professional betting trends, and which bets make their shortlist for contest entries. They emphasize the power of divisional underdogs after 0-2 ATS starts, warning about overreactions in the betting market, and debate classic matchups like Cowboys-Bears, Chiefs-Giants, Rams-Eagles, and more.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Overview – Early Trends

[03:55 - 06:41]

Pros are heavy on Bucs (contrary to Simon's "Jets lean"), but both hosts agree injuries make it a stay-away.
Simon: "It's gonna be a week of just dogs, Chad." (05:00)
Biggest pro love: Dolphins, Texans, Broncos as divisional dogs after 0-2 ATS starts.
Notable divisional dog trend: Since 2003, 80% cover rate for 0-2 spreads on the road in divisional games.
"You gotta hold your nose, but the pros love the Dolphins, Texans, and Denver. Too many calls about them." – Simon (05:35)

2. Game-by-Game Analysis & Insights

Browns (+7.5) vs. Packers

[06:43 - 11:25]

Chad: "This has been the year of the favorites. If Browns don’t cover, I’m only betting favorites the rest of the year." (08:14)
Simon: "This is the prime example of public overreaction. You bet the spot, not the team." (09:20)
Outstanding trend: home underdogs of >7 points are 18-1-2 ATS since 2020, 59% success rate last 20 years.
Chad confesses he bet when it hit +8.5; both emphasize the discomfort and long-term edge.

Texans (+1.5) at Jaguars

[12:09 - 19:20]

Line movement from +2.5 to +1.5. "No brainer. Easy bet. Texans are the spot," says Simon. (13:39)
Chad: "This is as much a bet against Jacksonville as on the Texans."
Key supporting data: Divisional road dogs in this 0-2 ATS spot are 13-0 ATS since 2011 when total <45.
Simon: "CJ Stroud is 11-7 ATS as a dog—performs better when undervalued."
AFC South divisional dogs: 11-1 ATS in recent years.
Chad: “The team is probably more talented than the record shows vs. a team not as talented as the record shows.” (18:33)

Patriots (+1.5) vs. Steelers

[19:27 - 22:43]

Simon leans Patriots but hesitant due to Drake May inconsistency.
Simon on Steelers: "Their defense just isn't very good…Rogers can’t push the ball."
Still, Patriots are a play due to historical Tomlin struggles as road favorite.

Rams (+3.5/3) at Eagles

[25:39 - 34:16]

Early pro love for Rams at +4/+4.5; now line at 3 or 3.5, pros shifting to Eagles.
Simon: "Against teams over .500 on the road as a dog, McVay/Stafford are 5-9 ATS in this spot." (26:33)
Both hosts acknowledge public is on the Rams, but Eagles defense vs. Rams O-line is the sharp angle.
Simon’s Hurts stat: “When he plays a team above .500 as a home fave, Hurts is 17-0 (straight up) last 17.” (33:52)
Chad: “Are the Eagles just a really good team that builds as the season goes on…or is there fraudulent framing for the Rams?” (30:22)
Discussion of "Tush Push" penalties as a quirky factor. (32:07)

Colts (-3) at Titans

[34:20 - 39:38]

Line moved sharply from -4.5 to -3.5; pros moving on Titans due to historic winless dog trend (13-0 ATS week 3, total <45).
Chad: "Jonathan Taylor vs. this defense giving up league-worst 5.4 ypc is the handrail for the rollercoaster for me." (37:59)
Simon: “Books are taking a stand, the number coming back down is respected money.” (38:58)

Broncos (+2.5) at Chargers

[44:14 - 50:00]

Simon says Broncos are perhaps his favorite sharp play: "All the signals are flashing week three for Denver."
Chargers vulnerable on third straight divisional game after tough travel; Simon: “Teams in this exact 3-straight divisional-game spot are 1-6 ATS, failing to cover by 10 points.” (49:23)
Both are enthusiastic; nearly a lock for contest selection.

Bears (+1.5) vs. Cowboys

[50:00 - 56:32]

Chad: "It’s time to make the Chicago Bears our brass balls bet of the week." (51:14)
Despite ugly public perception of Caleb Williams, the number’s moved too far. "Give me the team that's the dog on the move across zero." (52:13)
Simon: “This is our brass balls bet because when you get kicked in the dick, you gotta have brass balls! …Now it’s like I have to love this one.” (52:51)
Dak is a beast against sub-.500 teams, but Bears’ defense may be stronger, and number value too good to pass.

Chiefs (-5.5/-6) at Giants

[57:17 - 61:29]

Both admit Chiefs are the “Square Bet of the Week.”
Simon: “There’s going to be one or two plays that dictate this spread. Chiefs will win, but five years ago, this would be the trap of all traps.” (58:17, 60:09)
Sharp side is Giants, especially at +6.5.
Chad: "I’m getting a little skittish. … I’m already annoyed I’ll have to stay up late Sunday night to watch." (60:51)

Lions at Ravens (line movement)

[64:58 - 66:21]

Early love at Lions +5.5, but as it’s moved down to +4.5, "the number moving has changed it for me," says Chad.

3. Round Robin & Parlay Picks

[69:41 - 72:04]

Underdog Moneyline Round Robin:

Texans
Denver
Chicago
Panthers (+200 ML)
Bengals (added, despite concerns on Jake Browning)

Favorite Moneyline Parlay:

Colts
Chiefs
Eagles
Buccaneers
Seattle Seahawks (for Survivor, strong consensus)

Survivor Pool Thoughts

Chad: Favors Seahawks, though Chiefs and Bills are strong alternatives.
Simon: Thinks Seahawks have few easy matchups left, worth using now.

4. Biggest and Best Bets

[66:27 - 69:41]

Simon's biggest: Panthers (+5.5 or +6), Texans, Broncos, Browns (+8.5 at select books), Eagles (-3).
Secondary mention: Cardinals and Saints at advantageous lines.
"There's so many ugly dogs this week. They're undervalued and the numbers just move too much." – Simon (66:33)

5. Sharp vs. Square Picks & Final Contest Shortlist

[75:41 - end]

Favorites for Contest Picks:

Browns
Texans
Eagles
Denver
Colts/Bears/Patriots (still under debate for 5th)

Sharp v. Square Segment:

Simon’s sharp pick: Texans (+1.5)
Chad’s sharp pick: Eagles (-3) – “I’ve wanted to be on the Eagles all week. If this is the best I’m going to get, I’m taking the Eagles minus three.” (76:25)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On divisional dogs:
Simon: "You gotta hold your nose, but the pros love the Dolphins, Texans, and Denver." (05:35)
On betting process:
Chad: "If Browns don’t cover, I’m only betting favorites the rest of the year." (08:14)
On the Bucs/Jets game:
Simon: "Their whole [Bucs] offensive line is just... banged up." (04:43)
On regression to mean:
Simon: "It’s just overreaction to two weeks of data...the more you dive into matchups and numbers, a lot of it is luck." (08:36)
On Rams/Eagles:
Simon: "This Rams team... they’re actually really bad against pass rush. Their O-line has major problems... I just see so many holes." (26:33)
On Tush Push:
Chad: "What’s the line on the Eagles being called for a penalty on a Tush push?" (32:07)
On contest feelings:
Simon: "I feel like this is a really good week. I love so many of these games and that’s terrifying to someone like me." (77:22)

Summary Flow & Tone

The hosts’ banter is friendly, irreverent, and appropriately skeptical. Both recognize market psychology and the weirdness of NFL variance, balancing analytics with betting gut feel. Simon loves ugly underdogs and historical angles; Chad grounds trend talk in “why we actually like the game.” Their contest debates are candid and relatable for anyone threading the needle between public pressure and sharp action.

Timestamps of Key Segments

Wise Guy Hotline / Early Market Overview: 03:55
Browns vs. Packers: 06:43
Texans at Jaguars: 12:09
Patriots vs. Steelers: 19:27
Rams at Eagles: 25:39
Colts at Titans: 34:20
Broncos at Chargers: 44:14
Cowboys at Bears (Brass Balls Bet): 50:00
Chiefs at Giants (Square Bet): 57:17
Moneyline Parlay & Survivor Talk: 69:41
Sharp/Square Picks & Recap: 75:41

Conclusion

This week’s "Sharp or Square" centers on overreaction, undervalued dogs, and a contest card loaded with uncomfortable bets. Chad and Simon hammer the value of ugly underdogs, caution listeners against jumping on bandwagons after two data points, and hilariously confess their own vices and fears as betting season kicks into high gear. If you want an actionable, deeply analytical breakdown of the week’s sharpest NFL betting edges—with all the jokes and therapy of a true gambling friendship—this is your week 3 must-listen.

Sharp or Square – NFL Week 3 Bets (September 18, 2025)

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Overview – Early Trends

[03:55 - 06:41]

Pros are heavy on Bucs (contrary to Simon's "Jets lean"), but both hosts agree injuries make it a stay-away.
Simon: "It's gonna be a week of just dogs, Chad." (05:00)
Biggest pro love: Dolphins, Texans, Broncos as divisional dogs after 0-2 ATS starts.
Notable divisional dog trend: Since 2003, 80% cover rate for 0-2 spreads on the road in divisional games.
"You gotta hold your nose, but the pros love the Dolphins, Texans, and Denver. Too many calls about them." – Simon (05:35)

2. Game-by-Game Analysis & Insights

Browns (+7.5) vs. Packers

[06:43 - 11:25]

Chad: "This has been the year of the favorites. If Browns don’t cover, I’m only betting favorites the rest of the year." (08:14)
Simon: "This is the prime example of public overreaction. You bet the spot, not the team." (09:20)
Outstanding trend: home underdogs of >7 points are 18-1-2 ATS since 2020, 59% success rate last 20 years.
Chad confesses he bet when it hit +8.5; both emphasize the discomfort and long-term edge.

Texans (+1.5) at Jaguars

[12:09 - 19:20]

Line movement from +2.5 to +1.5. "No brainer. Easy bet. Texans are the spot," says Simon. (13:39)
Chad: "This is as much a bet against Jacksonville as on the Texans."
Key supporting data: Divisional road dogs in this 0-2 ATS spot are 13-0 ATS since 2011 when total <45.
Simon: "CJ Stroud is 11-7 ATS as a dog—performs better when undervalued."
AFC South divisional dogs: 11-1 ATS in recent years.
Chad: “The team is probably more talented than the record shows vs. a team not as talented as the record shows.” (18:33)

Patriots (+1.5) vs. Steelers

[19:27 - 22:43]

Simon leans Patriots but hesitant due to Drake May inconsistency.
Simon on Steelers: "Their defense just isn't very good…Rogers can’t push the ball."
Still, Patriots are a play due to historical Tomlin struggles as road favorite.

Rams (+3.5/3) at Eagles

[25:39 - 34:16]

Early pro love for Rams at +4/+4.5; now line at 3 or 3.5, pros shifting to Eagles.
Simon: "Against teams over .500 on the road as a dog, McVay/Stafford are 5-9 ATS in this spot." (26:33)
Both hosts acknowledge public is on the Rams, but Eagles defense vs. Rams O-line is the sharp angle.
Simon’s Hurts stat: “When he plays a team above .500 as a home fave, Hurts is 17-0 (straight up) last 17.” (33:52)
Chad: “Are the Eagles just a really good team that builds as the season goes on…or is there fraudulent framing for the Rams?” (30:22)
Discussion of "Tush Push" penalties as a quirky factor. (32:07)

Colts (-3) at Titans

[34:20 - 39:38]

Line moved sharply from -4.5 to -3.5; pros moving on Titans due to historic winless dog trend (13-0 ATS week 3, total <45).
Chad: "Jonathan Taylor vs. this defense giving up league-worst 5.4 ypc is the handrail for the rollercoaster for me." (37:59)
Simon: “Books are taking a stand, the number coming back down is respected money.” (38:58)

Broncos (+2.5) at Chargers

[44:14 - 50:00]

Simon says Broncos are perhaps his favorite sharp play: "All the signals are flashing week three for Denver."
Chargers vulnerable on third straight divisional game after tough travel; Simon: “Teams in this exact 3-straight divisional-game spot are 1-6 ATS, failing to cover by 10 points.” (49:23)
Both are enthusiastic; nearly a lock for contest selection.

Bears (+1.5) vs. Cowboys

[50:00 - 56:32]

Chad: "It’s time to make the Chicago Bears our brass balls bet of the week." (51:14)
Despite ugly public perception of Caleb Williams, the number’s moved too far. "Give me the team that's the dog on the move across zero." (52:13)
Simon: “This is our brass balls bet because when you get kicked in the dick, you gotta have brass balls! …Now it’s like I have to love this one.” (52:51)
Dak is a beast against sub-.500 teams, but Bears’ defense may be stronger, and number value too good to pass.

Chiefs (-5.5/-6) at Giants

[57:17 - 61:29]

Both admit Chiefs are the “Square Bet of the Week.”
Simon: “There’s going to be one or two plays that dictate this spread. Chiefs will win, but five years ago, this would be the trap of all traps.” (58:17, 60:09)
Sharp side is Giants, especially at +6.5.
Chad: "I’m getting a little skittish. … I’m already annoyed I’ll have to stay up late Sunday night to watch." (60:51)

Lions at Ravens (line movement)

[64:58 - 66:21]

Early love at Lions +5.5, but as it’s moved down to +4.5, "the number moving has changed it for me," says Chad.

3. Round Robin & Parlay Picks

[69:41 - 72:04]

Underdog Moneyline Round Robin:

Texans
Denver
Chicago
Panthers (+200 ML)
Bengals (added, despite concerns on Jake Browning)

Favorite Moneyline Parlay:

Colts
Chiefs
Eagles
Buccaneers
Seattle Seahawks (for Survivor, strong consensus)

Survivor Pool Thoughts

Chad: Favors Seahawks, though Chiefs and Bills are strong alternatives.
Simon: Thinks Seahawks have few easy matchups left, worth using now.

4. Biggest and Best Bets

[66:27 - 69:41]

Simon's biggest: Panthers (+5.5 or +6), Texans, Broncos, Browns (+8.5 at select books), Eagles (-3).
Secondary mention: Cardinals and Saints at advantageous lines.
"There's so many ugly dogs this week. They're undervalued and the numbers just move too much." – Simon (66:33)

5. Sharp vs. Square Picks & Final Contest Shortlist

[75:41 - end]

Favorites for Contest Picks:

Browns
Texans
Eagles
Denver
Colts/Bears/Patriots (still under debate for 5th)

Sharp v. Square Segment:

Simon’s sharp pick: Texans (+1.5)
Chad’s sharp pick: Eagles (-3) – “I’ve wanted to be on the Eagles all week. If this is the best I’m going to get, I’m taking the Eagles minus three.” (76:25)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On divisional dogs:
Simon: "You gotta hold your nose, but the pros love the Dolphins, Texans, and Denver." (05:35)
On betting process:
Chad: "If Browns don’t cover, I’m only betting favorites the rest of the year." (08:14)
On the Bucs/Jets game:
Simon: "Their whole [Bucs] offensive line is just... banged up." (04:43)
On regression to mean:
Simon: "It’s just overreaction to two weeks of data...the more you dive into matchups and numbers, a lot of it is luck." (08:36)
On Rams/Eagles:
Simon: "This Rams team... they’re actually really bad against pass rush. Their O-line has major problems... I just see so many holes." (26:33)
On Tush Push:
Chad: "What’s the line on the Eagles being called for a penalty on a Tush push?" (32:07)
On contest feelings:
Simon: "I feel like this is a really good week. I love so many of these games and that’s terrifying to someone like me." (77:22)

Summary Flow & Tone

Timestamps of Key Segments

Wise Guy Hotline / Early Market Overview: 03:55
Browns vs. Packers: 06:43
Texans at Jaguars: 12:09
Patriots vs. Steelers: 19:27
Rams at Eagles: 25:39
Colts at Titans: 34:20
Broncos at Chargers: 44:14
Cowboys at Bears (Brass Balls Bet): 50:00
Chiefs at Giants (Square Bet): 57:17
Moneyline Parlay & Survivor Talk: 69:41
Sharp/Square Picks & Recap: 75:41

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Summary

Sharp or Square – NFL Week 3 Bets (September 18, 2025)

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Overview – Early Trends

2. Game-by-Game Analysis & Insights

Browns (+7.5) vs. Packers

Texans (+1.5) at Jaguars

Patriots (+1.5) vs. Steelers

Rams (+3.5/3) at Eagles

Colts (-3) at Titans

Broncos (+2.5) at Chargers

Bears (+1.5) vs. Cowboys

Chiefs (-5.5/-6) at Giants

Lions at Ravens (line movement)

3. Round Robin & Parlay Picks

Underdog Moneyline Round Robin:

Favorite Moneyline Parlay:

Survivor Pool Thoughts

4. Biggest and Best Bets

5. Sharp vs. Square Picks & Final Contest Shortlist

Favorites for Contest Picks:

Sharp v. Square Segment:

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Summary Flow & Tone

Timestamps of Key Segments

Conclusion

Summary

Sharp or Square – NFL Week 3 Bets (September 18, 2025)

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Overview – Early Trends

2. Game-by-Game Analysis & Insights

Browns (+7.5) vs. Packers

Texans (+1.5) at Jaguars

Patriots (+1.5) vs. Steelers

Rams (+3.5/3) at Eagles

Colts (-3) at Titans

Broncos (+2.5) at Chargers

Bears (+1.5) vs. Cowboys

Chiefs (-5.5/-6) at Giants

Lions at Ravens (line movement)

3. Round Robin & Parlay Picks

Underdog Moneyline Round Robin:

Favorite Moneyline Parlay:

Survivor Pool Thoughts

4. Biggest and Best Bets

5. Sharp vs. Square Picks & Final Contest Shortlist

Favorites for Contest Picks:

Sharp v. Square Segment:

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Summary Flow & Tone

Timestamps of Key Segments

Conclusion