Sharp or Square – NFL Week 4 Bets: Chargers-Giants, Ravens-Chiefs, Bears-Raiders, Eagles-Bucs & More

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Release Date: September 25, 2025
Episode Focus: A breakdown of NFL Week 4 betting angles, highlighting best bets, sharp calls, public vs. professional sentiment, and key matchups including Chargers-Giants, Ravens-Chiefs, Bears-Raiders, and Eagles-Bucs.

Episode Overview

Chad Millman and Simon Hunter, expert betting analysts, dive into the numbers and narratives for NFL Week 4, aiming to help listeners make sharper betting decisions. The pair give insider perspectives on which sides the pros like, which the public (squares) are flocking to, and where they see value or traps in the week’s biggest games. The episode spotlights their five consensus contest picks, brass balls (bold) bets, and Moneyline underdog parlays, while unpacking market movement, injuries, and matchup details.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Joy of the Season & Market Nerves – [02:33]

• Chad: Expresses gratitude for doing the show, recounting a recent party where media figures grilled him on last week’s picks. He feels "nervous," sensing they're on the opposite side of “conventional wisdom.”
• Simon: Shares excitement for this sports-crammed time of year, loving the deep dive into the lines.

“It honestly feels like now that we’re 40 hours beyond that show, we are on the opposite side of all the professional, conventional wisdom.” — Chad (04:45)

2. Sharp Calls & Professional Consensus – [05:29]

• Pros Favor This Week:
  • Tampa Bay (+3.5 vs Eagles): Wiseguys love them, injuries on both sides, but Tampa offers value.
  • Carolina, Detroit, Chiefs, Cowboys, Rams: Professionals love these sides, especially when Detroit dropped below +10.
• Pros Against:
  • Commanders, Saints, Seahawks, Jets—Simon says he “can’t get there” with the Jets despite sharp love.

“A lot of love for our picks. What they hate for us...a lot of guys that love the Saints, a lot of guys that love the Seahawks and a lot of guys that really, really love that matchup for that Jets team.” — Simon (06:45)

3. Thursday Night: Seahawks at Cardinals – [07:18]

• Cardinals Moving to Dog Status: Chad and Simon want to take Arizona (+1.5), but both are hesitating—mostly due to Kyler Murray’s inconsistencies and Seattle’s historical dominance at Arizona.
• Insight: Simon will bet Kyler “as a dog, no matter what” but wouldn’t put it in their contest due to lack of confidence.

“It’s Kyler Murray as a dog. I’ve said it years ago. I don’t care. No matter what, I take him as a dog...He covers as the dog, as a favorite he is just atrocious.” — Simon (09:49)

4. Chargers (-6.5) at Giants – [10:13]

• Popular Pick for Chad: Despite missing the initial -6, Chad still loves the Chargers. Discussion centers on the Giants giving a rookie QB his first start and whether NYG’s defense can replicate disruption they inflicted on Mahomes.
• Simon’s Take: Professionals are on the Giants (unknown rookie effect, line movement), but he supports Chad's "fade the bad team, play the superior talent" angle.

“Herbert against a bad defense...he just beats up on bad teams. That’s what Herbert’s whole career, even when he’s had horrible coaching.” — Simon (13:35)

5. Eagles at Buccaneers (+3.5) – [16:58]

• Simon says: Loves the Bucs at +3.5, even with Baker Mayfield’s luck potentially running out and injuries stacking up; sees value with the hook.
• Key Trend: Bucs as dogs and Eagles injury report both favor Tampa (+3.5).

“Even when [Baker] loses those games as a dog, he always keeps them close. The back door is always open.” — Simon (18:50)

6. Atlanta (-1) vs. Washington – [22:51]

• Market Movement: Game opened ATL -3, now down to -1. Chad got Atlanta early but both show wariness based on backup/uncertain QB situations and lack of trust in either team.
• Simon: Uncertain with Penix (ATL QB), “I have major questions” (25:13).

7. Detroit (-9) vs. Cleveland – Brass Balls Bet – [26:23]

• Brass Balls Bet: Both hosts love the spot despite the huge spread, citing Detroit’s post-blowout ATS trends and ability to keep scoring.
• Historical Stat: Dan Campbell 22-6 ATS after a 6+ point win.

“When the offense is clicking, they just steamroll teams and they don’t take the foot off the gas.” — Simon (28:34)

8. Rams (-3.5) vs. Colts – [35:55]

• Professionals Starting to Back Rams: Both surprised line isn’t higher, see Rams as fundamentally superior and ready to “beat up” on a Colts squad outperforming expectations.

9. 49ers (-3) vs. Jaguars – [40:35]

• Brock Purdy’s Health: Both viewed practice footage, feel reassured he’s healthy, and are confident in SF, especially at -3.
• Simon’s Angle: Historically, Jaguars don’t travel well west. Chad is skeptical of old trends, but both agree on backing Niners.
• Quote: “The only true unknown is the Purdy injury and we both agreed he looked well in practice.” — Simon (44:49)

10. Ravens at Chiefs (-2.5) – Rock & a Hard Place Bet – [46:09]

• Chiefs the Sharp Side: Wiseguys and hosts both love KC despite public loving the “gift” Ravens number.
• Injury/Rest Angles: Ravens defense banged up, Chiefs struggle to run but getting WR Worthy back. Lamar is better with rest, but Mahomes has profited off teams on short weeks.
• Simon: If you can get KC at +3, “that’s a good number. They do lose, it won’t be by more than a field goal” (50:18).

11. Bears at Raiders (PK/-1) – [51:56]

• Simon’s Take: Loves Raiders at +1.5 due to Bears’ historic post-big-offense regression; not forcing as contest pick, but sharp money likes the spot.

12. Big Dogs & Other Notable Dogs – [54:29]

• Dallas as Home Dog vs. Green Bay: Simon likes Cowboys +7 as a “hold your nose” value spot, referencing big dog trend (19-1-2 ATS for 7+ point home dogs in last 3 years).
• Miami -2.5 vs. Jets: Simon likes Miami. Chad is not interested.

13. Biggest Bets & Contest Picks Update – [60:19, 64:14]

• Simon’s Biggest Bets: Rams, Bucs, Chiefs.
• Potential Contest Picks: Chargers -6.5, Bucs +3.5, Lions -9, Rams -3.5, 49ers -3, Chiefs +2.5.

14. Round Robin Underdog Parlay – [61:25]

• Picks: Chiefs, Bucs, Raiders (+1.5), Atlanta (+), Panthers (+185), with potential to add.
• Favorites Parlay: Bills, Lions, Chargers, Rams, Broncos.

15. Survivor – [62:41]

• Decision: Swerve off obvious Bills, take Texans as a cute play against Tennessee.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Chad on old NFL trends:
  “I can’t abide when you’re giving me a trend from the Jaguars that is 30 years in the making. You know that doesn’t mean anything.” — Chad (44:56)
• Simon on Dan Campbell:
  “When they get rolling like this, when the offense is clicking, they just steamroll teams and they don't take the foot off the gas, right?” (28:34)
• On Kyle Murray as underdog:
  “It’s Kyler Murray as a dog. I’ve said it years ago. I don’t care. No matter what, I take him as a dog.” — Simon (09:49)
• On brass balls bets:
  “It takes brass balls.” — Chad (26:36, after declaring Detroit -9 brass balls bet)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:33] — Show Opening & Process Discussion
• [05:29] — “Sharp Calls" Segment: Pros vs. Public
• [07:18] — Seahawks vs. Cardinals Analysis
• [10:13] — Chargers-Giants Deep Dive
• [16:58] — Eagles-Bucs, Pros Love Tampa
• [22:51] — Falcons-Commanders Market Movement
• [26:23] — Brass Balls Bet: Detroit -9
• [35:55] — Rams-Colts, Pros Backing Rams
• [40:35] — 49ers’ Purdy Watch & Niners vs. Jaguars
• [46:09] — Chiefs-Ravens (“Rock and a Hard Place" Bet)
• [51:56] — Bears-Raiders Number Flipping
• [54:29] — Dallas as Big Home Dog, Other Dogs
• [60:19] — Biggest Bets of the Week
• [61:25] — Moneyline Underdog Round Robin
• [62:41] — Survivor Picks Decision
• [64:14] — Recap of Top Contest Picks

Episode Tone & Style

• Language: Conversational, analytical, insider-y, peppered with betting jargon and friendly banter.
• Chemistry: Playful push-and-pull, healthy disagreements on the value of old trends, mutual support for consensus picks.

Summary Conclusion

The hosts close by laying out their likely contest picks—Chargers, Bucs, Lions, Rams, 49ers, and Chiefs—reminding listeners to check market movement and injury updates before locking anything in. This week is characterized by a sharper lean on home favorites and a few well-chosen dogs where professional money outweighs public narratives. The show is a must-listen for bettors seeking to understand where the sharp action lies and why, with clear timestamps and friendly debate helping newcomers and seasoned players alike "sharpen" up for NFL week 4.