← Sharp or Square
Sharp or Square
SHARP NFL Week 5 Bets - Cowboys-Jets, Chiefs-Jaguars, Giants-Saints, Texans-Ravens and more | Sharp or Square
01:05:42
Loading summary
Transcript177 lines
- [00:02]
A
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Voluum Podcast Network. This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined, as always, by my co host, my companion, my compadre professional better, my bff, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [00:28]
B
Chad. How we doing, dude?
- [00:31]
A
We're doing pretty awesome.
- [00:32]
B
Yeah, life is good.
- [00:34]
A
It is pretty good. I just want you to know I have, you know, one of my kids goes to school in Philly. He goes to Drexel, he's a senior. He's not a sports fan at all, but I have completely indoctrinated him into Phillies baseball. The passion, the glory, the fan base, the excitement, everything about Phillies baseball, I'm sending them. You know. You know how much I love Phillies. TikTok, I sent. Bryce Harper just did a VO on a video, a hype video for October baseball for the Phillies. I sent it to him. We're fully engaged. We are all on your side for the Phillies. I just want you to know that.
- [01:16]
B
Yeah, it was pretty wild. The Phillies had it's. It's basically a fake game. Last night I went to it with a couple buddies and I couldn't believe how many people were there, how rowdy it was. And then, you know, there's rumors going throughout the crowd that there was like, I think it was the Dodgers didn't sell out their game last night. And there's something else. Maybe it was another team, maybe it was the Guardians. Whoever it was just Phillies fans owning that, being like, you see how many people are here and it's just like, okay, calm down. It doesn't matter. But I would be lying to if I didn't say I wasn't nervous about this Dodgers team. Just watching them, all the names, all of it, I think I saw some crazy stats the first time the Phillies have played the Dodgers in the playoffs since 2009. So, yeah, I'm excited as a Phillies fan. But like I said, baseball, it's. It's very random. They've changed it. It's not seven games anymore. It's only five games in this round. So, yeah, I'm, I'm thinking of all the ways it could go wrong, but like, the vibes like last night in the stadium, it's so high. I just really do think the players that love playing in Philly, the atmosphere, all that, it'll lift them up. Hopefully this upcoming series against la, because, man, that team, that team is loaded.
- [02:23]
A
Carry the day. All right, this is our Thursday Week five episode. We're going to narrow down the options on our quest to find five picks we agree on for the week. We are going to do something special this week. Simon says on Tuesday was the Texans plus three and a half against the Ravens. I would say our show had been live for about an hour before that moved all the way to the Texans -2 and a half as word leaked that Lamar Jackson, his status was up in the air for for the weekend's game against against the Texans. So we're going to add a new Simon says today since that one was unavailable so quickly. Quickly we're also switching up the format of our Rock and a Hard Place Bet. We're finding that on Sunday mornings when we do our Sunday morning show so often that fifth game is the game that we're having a hard time which that we want to put into our final five. So we're going to make that our Rock and a Hard Place Bet of the week from Hard Rock when we talk about it on Sunday. So we'll add that on Sunday. Reminder. Subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple, Pod, Spotify, wherever you get your pod. We've had a lot of games on Tuesday in which you said you were gonna get some calls about. So let's get into this thing. It's time for sharp calls.
- [03:50]
B
I have to answer this phone. All right. Ring ring, telephone ring. Somebody saying baby, what you. Yeah, let's run through just the the games that obviously we talked about and that they agree with us on professional side. No doubt about it. The Rams people have seen that number. It's ballooned obviously up to nine now at a couple books. So we'll talk about that one. Miami. Shockingly, we were on the Panthers. They're a lot of pros. I know they're on the Miami side. They like Miami side.
- [04:25]
A
Interesting.
- [04:26]
B
Yeah, Cowboys, another pro side. Talked to a lot of pros that really like that side. The Saints. No doubt about it. Tons of pro love for that side. Seahawks, which is shocking. I'm still dugging on the books, but we can break down that one if you want some more. Very shocked here. A little bit of love for this New England Patriots side and once again I, I think I'm going to stay on the other side. I think I'm going to be on the Bills, but I know some really smart guys who like that side. They love Jag. The Jag. So Chad definitely nailed that one. Pros are all over that Jag side. That number three and a half. No threes but three and a half, definitely the professional side and a game that I'm just. I got a blind spot to. I can't get a read on it. Vegas talked to a bunch of pros that really like Vegas. They like the trends, they like the number, they like the spot, they like the situation. I am still dug in on the Colts. If you can get the -6, -6 and a half. I still think that's preferred side for me, but maybe they've talked me out of even thinking I'm putting our contest because it is once again very respected money on that Raiders side right now.
- [05:30]
A
Wow. There's a lot of differences between what we had talked about on Tuesday and where I think we were leaning and what professional betters that you're hearing from are talking about.
- [05:41]
B
Yeah. Got a lot of hate. A lot of hate this week.
- [05:43]
A
A lot of hate this week.
- [05:44]
B
Yeah, that's. I mean, it's gambling, man.
- [05:46]
A
That's interesting. All right, here we go. Uh, I want to talk about Thursday night just for, just for a few minutes. I know a lot of people are going to hear this after the Thursday night game, but it has moved so much. Look, this line was 3 1/2 on Sunday and on Tuesday when we talked about it, it was five and a half. Now you mentioned nine. It's at eight and a half most places. Um, the line moves have been crazy mainly because of the Brock Purdy news. But then last night it came out Purdy's not going to be playing Juwan Jennings, not going to be playing Ricky Piersol, not going to be playing Nick Bosa, obviously already. So you're not getting the Niners super bowl caliber roster that you thought you might be getting in a division matchup on Thursday night. So that's why the number has moved so much. I know for us, like I'm going to play the Rams in Survivor in one of my Survivor pool contests. And I know that when we think about contest, for our contest, we're going to have to play the Rams because that line locked at five and a half.
- [06:49]
B
Yeah. And luckily we talked about it on Tuesday's show and people were able to get that line, the five and a half and the six. Did not see it going all up to what it's become. Right. And I think that is because they're down. They're number one, number two receiver. And now you have Mac Jones at third and eight with two guys on McCaffrey now having to make plays to practice players and backups. Like they're, they're in a really tough spot this week, the 49ers. And surprisingly, Shanahan, he's actually awful in these spots. So I, I think your position to take the Rams and Survivor, you know, a little scary because it's a Thursday game, but I think it's warranted here where in this exact spot when Shanahan's a huge dog like this, I believe in his career, he's 1 in 18 straight up. So you look at those type of numbers and you think to yourself, okay, it's already a bad matchup. And then you look at ATS records. You know, short week McVeigh has always been good between, you know, his early years with the Rams and now later in his career. He's 17 and 7 against the spread on short week. So it's a huge number. I. I probably have it right at seven and a half. So if you're someone that's out there and you haven't betted at all and you're like, I want to be on the 49er side, I guess you can take the nine. That's the only number I would touch. Even though my model has that as a much better value. I just, I don't think it understands how tough this is going to be of a matchup for this team. And, you know, first half is a divisional game this season. Could be a 10, 10, 7, 7 game going to half, but once the teams make adjustments, I think the Rams will be able to move the ball and the 49ers just won't in the second half. So, yeah, I'm glad we're locked in on this being in our contest. It's a good, good way to start the week, especially this week where I have games I really like. Not a ton of love from my side, honestly. So this is one of the few games I love, love that we're getting a great number and yeah, just, man, we need the rims show up here because this is just a horrible matchup with this 49ers team. I just don't see how they move the ball offensively. They just have so many devastating injuries.
- [08:47]
A
Look, I hope people were paying attention. I did bet it on Tuesday at five and a half and there's been a couple games this week. We're going to go through them where we talked about them on Tuesday and saying we like the lines at certain numbers and they got to those numbers or you had to bet them right away and we were saying, go bet this number. So hopefully people were paying attention. All right, Rams, it's getting out. It's getting, it's getting out of hand. I wouldn't be betting the Rams now but hopefully everyone was able to get that Rams five and a half. I do want to talk about the Sunday morning game for a second because since we talked about it, Minnesota and Cleveland in England. Cleveland is a three and a half point underdog. We talked about it on Tuesday and the question we had was why is Joe Flacco still the starting quarterback for this team and we said Kevin Stefanski had been non committal so there was a hint that he might change his mind. Dylan Gabriel has since been announced as a starting quarterback. There is one four and a half out there. I'm tempted to take the Browns at four and a half at three and a half. I don't know if you have an opinion on this. If it, it hasn't changed at all with Dylan Gabriel. Like it's basically been painted three and a half everywhere. So you got a call here. I, I like, I think Eileen, let me, let me tell you why Eileen Browns before you give me your opinion.
- [10:21]
B
Okay.
- [10:21]
A
I lean Browns because the Vikings offensive line is truly terrible right now. Like in, in real massive injury deficit. So you're going to get, you're going to get Miles Garrett who's playing like a defensive player of the year if not an mvp. You're going to get Mason Graham who's playing like a defensive rookie of the year. You're going to get that kid Carson Schlesinger Swearinger, what his name, the linebacker who might be defensive rookie of the year against a really bad offensive line and against a Carson Wentz who still can't seem to figure out how to get beyond his first read. I think that's potential here is keep this game really close and for the Vikings like don't let Carson Wentz screw it up. So it feels like there's a possibility here for it to be a low scoring close game.
- [11:16]
B
Yeah, it stinks. I, I was on the Browns. I really wanted to be Flacco because to me the biggest deal is this is a Flores defense. I could not believe of all the games that put a rookie for his first start, you couldn't honestly pick the worst matchup for Dylan Gabriel. This is going to be a nightmare. Like I said, that stuff Flores shows you he's never seen anything like especially in college football where they don't. These kids don't even get coached to learn and read defenses right. They're just reacting to their own offense, let alone the other team's Defense, so bad spot. I wanted to be on the Browns. They're the super public side. People are kind of leaving the Vikings for dead here. And we've learned in European games, these favorites, they tend to do well, but even more so, the chalk, like whatever the public is betting tends to do well. And right now, the public side is this Browns team. So I'll probably end up just holding my Browns bets I already made early in the week because I did think it was going to be Flacco. To me, the sharp side, we've already missed the value, which was the under. Like, they've taken this down now from basically 41 to 36 and a half, 35 and a half at some book. So, yeah, that's. That's crazy because again, it's an international game. Tends to lean towards the over. So, yeah, just put a bow in it. I guess I'm on the Browns. Guess I'll keep. Keep my under ticket alive. But if people just want to tease this one, like tease the Browns up to whatever, 10 or, you know, nine and a half and tease the under up or do whatever, something like that, I get it. I just. This game has so many unknowns now with those switch to Flacco and like Chad said, all the injuries to the Vikings offensive line. I'm. I'm. I'm with you on the Brown side. It's just not a game I'm betting confidently.
- [12:57]
A
Miami at Carolina. Carolina is now a one and a half point underdog. I feel a little regretful because when we did the show on Tuesday, there were one and a half point favorites that had flipped. Now it's flipped back to them being underdogs. This would have been a Chad loves potentially if the Carolina Panthers had been underdogs on Tuesday. It's two really bad teams, let's face it. And like, I still would rather be betting on the Panthers, right, than betting on the Dolphins in a situation where they've just lost Tyreek Hill and the Panthers. They're not a very good team. We know that. But this Dolphins team is trash, really trash. And I don't think that they were as good as anyone thinks they were in the Monday night game.
- [13:50]
B
Yeah, maybe not. That was. That was honestly a perfect match for them. And like, you know, the jets being the jets kept turning the ball over. That's really what decided that game.
- [13:59]
A
But yeah, and the penalties.
- [14:02]
B
My fear here with Panthers is Chuba Hubbard, their number one back, who to me is one of the more underrated running backs in all football, doesn't get the credit respect he deserves in the general public. He's honestly a stud. This was gonna be a great match for him. He's banged up. He hasn't practiced yet this week. On the flip side, you go through the injuries to their line, their defense, the Panthers are just going through a lot like a lot of teams are in football right now. And I, you know this is a huge discussion just in the football community. Like I talk to different scouts, different guys and organizations. This whole next collective bargain agreement, I think they're going to bring back more padded practices and just more contact with people because you get early in the year here all these guys are all getting banged up and it just feels like it's all these different teams and the Panthers were part of that list and so is Miami. Right. You just said Tyreek Hill as big of a deal does lose Tyree Kill. He's honestly statistically he's one of the better receivers this year. He's like win rate getting open all that stuff. That's going to be a big deal. But I can't stop and think about how this is the exact matchup Tua thrives in which is zero pass rush and he's going to have guys open and he just does well against bad teams. You go through his historical data, he always beats up on bad teams and just gets ruined by good teams on the road. So yeah, it's a game I was with Chad. I was confident on the Panthers. Still going to be on the Panthers especially a plus one and a half. But just knowing that the respect and money that is on Miami, their reasoning, their position, why they're taking on the on this Miami team, I get it because I did go back and watch the Bryce Young tape and it's like even that Atlanta when he didn't look that good honestly. So I'm worried about him, Chad. I'm not going to lie. Like he just doesn't look right yet mentally all of it. And yeah, Bryce Young slowly but surely he's playing himself out of the NFL especially the way he's been playing this year.
- [15:52]
A
Isn't that amazing?
- [15:53]
B
Yeah.
- [15:54]
A
Number one overall pick.
- [15:56]
B
Not only that, he just showed something last year I thought that would carry into this year and it just has not at all well.
- [16:03]
A
Chances are very good that we finally might bet the Carolina.
- [16:09]
B
Well we got lucky they all because I'm sure people have seen those stats like they haven't one are covered as a favorite in like four years or three years. I think it was since like 23 totally. And yeah, they've just been a disaster in this exact spot. I mean, they're just. I know the owner's trying to hire a bunch of nerds and he thinks that's going to help, but it isn't. You need, I don't even know. You need to just blow it all up. They just need to start from the ground up. It's. It feels like everything they do is wrong and there are pieces to like on this, on this Panthers team. But like I just said, between all the injuries, Chad, I just, I'm a little uneasy about this game.
- [16:42]
A
All right. New York Giants at New Orleans Saints. You mentioned this from sharp calls. I was honestly going to leave this one out because the line had moved so much from Saints plus two on Sunday night. When we did like it to minus two, it seemed to me the value was gone. We were texting earlier this morning about some games. You brought this one up. Could we conceivably, responsibly, professionally bet on Spencer Rattler as a two point home favorite? Is there something that, that makes us comfortable giving away four points of value?
- [17:26]
B
It was three points, right? It's minus one and a half. It was their plus one and a.
- [17:29]
A
Half, but they were, they were plus two on Sunday night. There are places where they're minus two.
- [17:34]
B
Now and that helps no one here. Don't, don't talk about that line because again, I got that, but who cares? I put a penny on that. So did our listeners, if they even bet it. But to me, this is the line people are going to bet. I really think it's, it's really about me thinking Spencer Rattler is much better than people think. I, I believe it was. Pro Football Focus had him as their 18th graded highest quarterback right now this season. Like he's actually played really well and the numbers bear that out. Not only using his legs, but he's been really effective on third down. And this is really about the spot. And on Jackson Dart, what I do like what he's done with his legs. I did think he had some good throws. They've lost the guy. They lost Malik Neighbors, I don't think we can understand how big of a deal that is where this guy was. Basically their offense, if they needed just a prayer on third down, that was the guy they would turn to every play. And then you factor in that this is Dart's second start now after a win and now he's on the road. And I think we both agree even the Saints suck. That's a pretty tough environment to play indoors. In that dome. So let's go into the numbers. So QBs making their, you know, first couple starts last five years. So this is a second career start on the road in this spot. These young quarterbacks, 13 and 34 straight up. So historically a really bad spot for these guys to be in. You know, Dart, I'll give him, like I said, the credit. He can use his legs. That is a weapon that will benefit him against a Saints team that they do have a lot of holes in their defense, especially at the linebacker position that, you know, even if they try to QB spy Dart, I don't know if they have a guy that can really take that away. He's injured. Like I, I saw a thing about a guy that he's wearing, like it's his type of sleeve on his leg that basically keeps your leg warm for bad hamstrings. So does he have an injury here? I think he does. So I don't think he'll be able to use his legs which again, another advantage to us with the Saint side. And this will be a side that no one's going to bet but professionals. Chad, like this is going to be. The public is going to come in on the Giants. No one's betting the Saints. Like we said, Spencer Rattler, he's never won a game in his career. He's over 10 in his career and he's now a favorite. The Saints viewed as the, from the public as the worst team of football because you know, they're bad. They're 0 and 4 are favorite at home here. So I love that the public's on the other side of this. I'm, I'm with you, obviously. I wish this was still plus two. This would have been a no brainer, would have forced it into our contest at one and a half. I get your hesitation because with bad teams you do want the best of the number. But I love this spot for the Saints team for this matchup and just them being desperate. I can't talk about enough people with sports being desperate, especially as a professional. It's a real thing. Like I, I don't know if you watched the Ben Johnson speech after that Raiders game. He talked about that, that how desperate both teams were and you could sense it and that's why that, that's such a huge win because it's like you need it, you're dying for. There's nothing worse as a competitor than losing week in and week out. So I just can't help but feel like the Giants can be feeling themselves are going to be feeling good about a huge win against the Chargers. Now going against the Saints team that every week for the most part other than that Seahawks game, they've been close. They've been in these games and they've been hungry. So I'm pitching it to you hard. I want you to come on the same side, but I'm worried the fans are like you. They're just like, this is so gross. I don't trust Rattler as a favorite, but I'm telling you it's a good number. This should be two and a half. Should be closer to three. I think we're getting a good deal here on the Saints side.
- [20:59]
A
I don't need that much convincing on the Saints. Like I've wanted to be on them the whole week and, and just bummed about the number more than I am about Spencer Rattler and you know, we just get burned in these situations. So I'm feeling a little bit.
- [21:14]
B
It's got to swing the other way though. There's. It's, it's. It's been. You're right. This year it's. It's been going the one sided very heavily. Whenever it flips, the favorites begin burned. But it, that's, that's an anomaly. Honestly. That's been, it's been very flukish where like every. That game, what keeps landing on one and the team that became the favorite loses on the one. So I'm with you. It's been weird but I'm trying not to overreact too much to it because it has been so flukish.
- [21:39]
A
I'm not afraid of it. I'm not afraid. I'm not afraid of this bet at all. Just telling you right now, Houston at Baltimore, this was Simon says we still owe people a new Simon says we owe people a brass balls. We're getting to those. But it was Simon says when it was Texans three and a half. And like I said in the intro, I don't think the show had been up for more than an hour before this flipped because of the Lamar Jackson speculation. So I wanted to ask you, you were so adamant that this was Simon says. It was almost like you knew something. Did you, did you have an inkling? Had you been hearing something like give me the background here.
- [22:22]
B
Again? I don't know what to say because it's tough. Chad, I do have another job. That's why all these picks are free. And as much people want to bitch about the show, it's seven seasons free picks and yeah, I have a duty to the people I work for to get the best of the number for that. And again, why I feel comfortable giving out on this show is I've been. I've been betting it since Monday. And yeah, like the. That's the hardest part too, though. It's what to trust because you hear all these crazy rumors, but that one, I thought I had some really good info was really pound on the table about it. And now that it has moved, you know, people, if they did get that number and they want to play the other side, I don't hate it because it's quickly becoming a Ravens line. And you know, Cooper Rush, he is a downgrade, but this was nine and a half. So, you know, 10 points, 11 points. What is Lamar worth of this team? It is probably close to that number. So at some point it will become a Cooper Rush line. You know, with him, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, you know, he does have weapons to use. To me, the reason I'm not pounding the table about back in the Ravens here and I'm still comfortable with Houston and their side is just. I can't get over how banged up that Ravens defense is and how this Houston team will be able to move the ball and defensive, they will be able to get stops. Like we said, this is a historically great defense in Houston. I think they set a record or tied a record for at least amount of points allowed through the first four games with 51 points. Like they've been dominant. So, yeah, it's painful. I love Chad. The show isn't about me giving Chad the best of the number. That's why when I texted you, I was like, okay, I probably should give another Simon says, just because how many people were able to get that? Three and a half. Literally, people, our fans hit it. And then the news came out like an hour after the show and all of a sudden it really moved to about two and a half on this Houston team. So like we said, there's been buyback. You know, professional money is obviously coming this Raven side. To me, if you have Houston, I think you have a good side at the three and a half. Obviously, I wouldn't do anything if I have to pick a side now with this number, I'll be patient. See if you can get the Ravens back up to two and a half. To me, that's. That's where the value would be. Just because I, I do think obviously they're. It's a bad matchup for them and Cooper Rush, but we've seen it. These backups that come in that first game, especially this year they've all done well like that, whatever it is, but the defense not be able to have tape on them. I know they have tape for Cooper Rush from previous years in Dallas. You don't know what he's going to run here for this Ravens team. So, yeah, I'm, I'm again happy again in our contest. It's most likely going to be three and a half. That's going to be an easy decision to take Houston there. I don't know about forcing Houston at minus one and a half. I just, it feels like we're forcing a bet in here that totally right. Okay.
- [25:04]
A
Yeah, I, I, I only wanted to bring it up because it felt like having done this with you for a long time. I listened to the show on Tuesday after the Lamar News, and it felt like a Not just Simon says, Simon knows.
- [25:25]
B
And I wish it was that much. But yeah, I just, I had a very, very, very, very reliable source where it's like, holy shit, he might be really banged up. And you saw like an hour after our show got posted, yeah, yeah, Shefty. And all these guys came out with it. So that's the toughest part, doing our show. It's like, we got to do it and then post it. I know it's tough. There's two hours in there that's wasted and only Chad's benefiting from it. But I know it's tough, people.
- [25:50]
A
Denver at Philly, when we talked about this the other day, it was at four and a half. We like Denver, it moved to three and a half. And like, I'd say the last 48 hours, I've dug into this game pretty aggressively, trying to figure out, do I have an opinion. I can mostly find reasons not to like either team. And so, yeah, you know, like, Denver's defense is great, but they're blitzing a crazy amount to get all the pressure that they're getting. The problem is the Eagles, like their offensive line is banged up past certain, can probably lock down AJ Brown and eliminate the primary weapon that Jalen Hurts would go to under any kind of pressure. Saquon Barkley has not been getting the yardage that he obviously got last year. And defensively, like, there's a lot of holes for this defense, especially in pass coverage. So my biggest fear, ultimately, my biggest fear in backing the Broncos, which I will do, is Bo Nix Bonix against good teams. How is Bonix going to get over the hump against a good team?
- [27:06]
B
That's actually my, my biggest fear with this.
- [27:09]
A
That's what I'M saying, yeah.
- [27:10]
B
Denver side, it's Bo Nix has struggled as a dog. I think he's 4 and 7 his career against the spread, 9 and 2 as a favorite. So he's done very well as a favorite in his young career, and he's struggled as a dog historically. Denver coming to Philly, bad spot. I think they're one in six lifetime. The one win was John Elway, which. When did he retire, Chad? Like 99 or 2,000. So it's been a long time.
- [27:38]
A
I think I covered John Elway's last game, which was that Super Bowl. I'm not. I'm not even joking.
- [27:44]
B
So, like, it's a. It's a weird spot for this Denver team, and it really is. I love the line. I even had Dr. Nick hit me up being like, this is my favorite game. The luck rankings and loves Denver here. And I agree with him. The Eagles have been very lucky. And that's why I told you I couldn't get over the media this week what they were going to do with this Eagles team, because it's just. It's what they dream of. It's nonsensical talk about a 4.0team. And they're just looking for reasons to pick it apart. Like, I love that saquon hasn't broken 100 yards yet because it's like, well, I thought we were only good or Jim was only good because Saquon was good. I mean, what's the excuse now, this year? Or, you know, the defense, they have weaknesses, obviously, but you've seen that this. These guys are how he's drafted for this Eagles team. Quinion Mitchell, a guy I gave out, you know, early in the year to be defensive player of the year, he was incredible last week. Cooper De Jean quickly become one of the best tacklers in all of football. Like, this kid is incredible, and this should be a good matchup for this Eagles team. But I think Chad nailed it. Like the. The weakness. What everyone's not talking about to me is just that interior line of this Eagles team that Dickerson's been banged up.
- [28:53]
A
The Lane Johnson.
- [28:55]
B
Yeah, Lane Johnson's become in and out of games the first four weeks, and it's unstable right now. And that's what's been the issue with their team, is that when everyone's in and the guys are in rhythm, their offense clicks and all of a sudden a guy goes out or something, one of the guys, you know, doesn't. Isn't feeling right in the second half, and you just see their whole offense Stumble because they just can't. They can't block right now. So this Eagles team keeps getting away with it. Like they got away the last week. They should not have covered last week. I keep saying that the line reflects that. This line should be two and a half, three. We're getting good value on Denver, but we're both walking right into it. This Eagles team, that's how football is sometimes. These teams that are underperforming the general public, they're winning games. And in the big moments, their team steps up in those type of moments. So if you can get the four and a half, I would go grab it. There was one still out there. But like Chad said, this is going to be three and a half. Every pro I know is taking the Denver side. Everyone agrees the Eagles are overvalued. To me, the public, they will come in on this Eagles side. This will be another. I mean, probably will be in our money line around Robin. Like, it's.
- [30:06]
A
Oh, yeah.
- [30:07]
B
A good spot historically for this Eagles team to win outright. But it's that number with the hook. They're sucking me. And there's a couple games this week with that where it's like, I can't help it. I can't help it with the hook. Still three and a half. I want it. I've always wanted it. They're. They're. They're keeping it there, Chad. So I think we're getting a good number. And I do like this Denver side. And like you said, it's. It's scary because we're relying a lot on Bo Nicks here. But I think there's other ways, especially with that run game with Dobbins that they can attack this Eagles defense.
- [30:33]
A
This game has a rock and a hard place feel to me.
- [30:37]
B
It does. I can, I can honestly see it being our debate on.
- [30:40]
A
I just feel like we're going to. I feel like ultimately we're going to be on the Broncos. And by the way, I was just looking back at my notes, I forgot I did bet the Broncos at four and a half. And like you said, there is still one place out there with a four and a half.
- [30:53]
B
Yeah. Shop around so you can.
- [30:55]
A
You can find it. But I feel like it's going to be. It's going to be a hard one. It really is. Dallas at the New York Jets. Jets. Jets. Jets. Plus two and a half. Guess what, Simon? The New York jets are going to be our brass balls bet of the week.
- [31:23]
B
You know what it takes. It takes brass balls.
- [31:29]
A
Listen, I wanted this at 3 this could have been a Chad Loves. I wanted a 3. It didn't get there until after our show on Tuesday. I did bet it at 3, even with some extra juice. Just because I, I wanted that insurance on the Jets. I feel like the jets are going to be in our money line underdog, round robin parlay. You know, it's clearly the sharp side or the New York Jets. You know, you can like. Here's my questions for you. Are you ready?
- [31:59]
B
Yeah.
- [32:00]
A
What would you say has been the strength of the Dallas Cowboys this year?
- [32:05]
B
Easy, Dak.
- [32:07]
A
Do you know how many points a game they are scoring?
- [32:12]
B
30, 29, 28 and a half.
- [32:14]
A
Fifth in the league.
- [32:15]
B
Yeah, sounds right.
- [32:16]
A
Two 40 point games this season. Do you know how many games Justin Fields has won when the opponent scores more than 21 points?
- [32:33]
B
I mean, going back to his bears years, probably zero.
- [32:36]
A
Zero.
- [32:37]
B
Yeah, that sounds right.
- [32:39]
A
I think he is 0 and 24 when the opponents score 21 points. Here's why. This is our brass balls bet of the week. The jets have given up this year. 34, 30, 29 and 27. The good news, the good news is that they are giving up fewer and fewer points every week. So could this be the week where they get a team to score less than 20 points? I don't know. But they're going to be our brass balls. Better the week.
- [33:08]
B
Yeah. And it's a unique spot for this jets team that they're going against a defense that is, like Chad just said, is as bad as their own defense and they're inflated. Dallas right now like this, the public is going to have a love affair with them. They're going to be all, all in on Dak loving Dak for good reason. Like I talked, we talked about coming to the year. Everyone had forgotten about Dak leftover dead. And I was the one down the table saying, this guy is still a really high level guy. I get the pieces around him are very bad. But they're going to steal games this year. They're going to be a competitive team. Just because that Pickens ad to me was one of the bigger sneaky ads of the whole year where it's like what he does really well is some of Dak's favorite balls. Those tight end, those tight throws on the sideline. Dak loves and is really good at throwing them. That's like Pickens money. Like he's so good in those small windows. So you know a guy that is going to have a good matchup against this defense of the jets because I think we could Both agree sauce is not now whatever that was and they paid him. That's like the fear of every owner. He just has whatever is going on with him off the field has to, has to have been effective on the field because we know that raw talent is there. Like he has got the skills. He's just not that player anymore. So that's, that's the scary part is that he will be on Pickens, but thank God, no CD here. And that to me is a big deal where, you know, Ferguson has really excelled this year. Their tight end for Dallas. And that's going to be another way for this Dallas team to attack. But I think the fact that we can have sauce on a number one and now the game's going to be forced to a tight end in the middle, that's going to benefit this jets team. And offensively, we even talked about it. I love this matchup for Fields and this run game.
- [34:48]
A
And like you said, that's why I like it.
- [34:50]
B
Yeah, that, that game against Miami, if they could just hold onto the ball, they would have won that game. I feel like, like especially once that defense, Miami got tired, it was over. That's the thing with Fields. He'll wear you out, especially with that run game. They have to win this game. Like we said, this is another desperate team in a desperate spot. And we have no doubt the jets were one of the worst teams in football. Like I, I before the year I closed my eyes, I could see, see how they could do it. They could win games this year and they could be a team and they've had the opportunities, right. They could easily be 2 and 2. Like they've had games that they've could have stolen and won and, you know, I guess we should have known like that Pittsburgh game, week one, that sums up these two teams, right, Tomlin? Whatever. Magical win. Jets found a way to lose that game and that's what they've done this year. They're same old Jets. So two and a half, three. This is a Jets number. You know, like Chad said, this is going to be the professional side. The square side is no doubt the Dallas side. And like I said on Sunday's show, I don't know if Dallas can be favored against bad teams anymore. To me, they are just simply a bad team. This should be closer to a pick. Scary, scary bet. Like Chad said, it's our brass balls bet. You need to. Just like last week we said we were taking these bets. You got to have some, some balls here, people to take them. So I love that we're all line on this side. Give me the jets plus two and a half. You got some balls my friend.
- [36:08]
A
This is the prime time tie bump for the Dallas Cowboys. Not the win. The best they can get is a tie and everyone's all in on the Dallas Cowboys because they they did something against a team that a lot of people think can go to the Super Bowl. So I think we said this on Tuesday. This is the ultimate buy low sell high spot because we had back to back primetime teams looking as good as one can look and as bad as one can look. Jets. Jets. Jets. Jets. Brass balls Bet of the Week Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. Week five kicks off tonight with a California showdown between San Francisco and la. Check out these streaks from Hard Rock Bet Stats Hub. You can find odds to bet on all of these streaks right now in the Hard Rock bet app. Christian McCaffrey has reached the end zone in six straight October games and the LA Rams have won nine consecutive games as a favorite versus the NFC. If you like that, you can bet it with live odds right here in Hard Rock Bet Stats Hub. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus points bets. If you win, just place a $5 bet and if it hits, you get not only your winnings but also an extra $150 in bonus bets. Plus tonight on hard Rock Bet, you can get a Thursday night parlay boost for the game. Boost your same game parlay or SGP Max so your bet pays extra winnings. Here's a parlay I like tonight. Rams Money Line the Under Stafford passing yards over and under in the second half. There's new promos every day, so if you're listening to this later, just open the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week, download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit payable in bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida Offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states must be 21 and over in physically present day Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1888 admitted in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809-with-IT gambling problem call 1-800- GAMBLER in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia Tampa Bay Bucks going across the country Visiting the Seattle Seahawks. The Bucks are three and a half. You've sort of dug in on the Bucks. Yeah, I haven't bet this game. I kind of lean Seattle. And I think this defense is just so good. And I don't think you can discount the fact of how good they are at getting pressure without ever blitzing. We talked about the Broncos. The Broncos are great at getting pressure, but the Broncos need to blitz to get the pressure. And like the Seahawks, and I'm talking about overall, statistically, like, the Broncos are blitzing more than anyone else in football.
- [39:21]
B
And, you know, that's sartains that though, right?
- [39:24]
A
What's that?
- [39:25]
B
Like, Patrick is so good at one on one shutdown corner. They can use that fifth guy to blitz. They don't need to have two. And that's true. It's honestly what it is.
- [39:33]
A
That's true. The Seahawks are only rushing four.
- [39:36]
B
Yeah, they're good.
- [39:37]
A
Like, their blitz rate is the second lowest in the league. And so isn't that what usually gives Baker a hard time is when they're not blitzing because it's. Everybody is covered downfield. So I worry about that. I worry about Bucky Irving. I like betting on good defenses. I think they are safe and reliable. You know, like, I just. I don't love the Bucks here is what I'm saying.
- [40:03]
B
Yeah. And as someone that loves the Seahawks, you know, I get where you're coming from. To me, though, this is a Baker spot and a cell spot on the Seahawks team. And this would be a bigger bet of mine if, like you said, it wasn't for the injuries, because I do think Buck Irving is a huge deal. Like, this guy is electric every time he touches the ball. He could break it for 70 years. One of the best weapons in football. But like I said, this is a Baker number, a Baker spot. I had to go try to find the numbers. Shout out to my guy, Evan Abrams. He put it all in one nice spot for me because I was like, what is Baker's career as a dog? And I think I was going too far back where I just really need to focus on what he's been with this Bucks team. So as an underdog in this spot, Baker 15 and eight against the spread, as an underdog covering by five and a half points per game. So that's what I think is like, built into me. It's like, Baker has been so good to me in these exact spots. And how can you not want to sell a Seahawks team that they are good? This is no doubt the best Defense they've faced all year, like people are going to start realizing this secondary like the COVID corners. I know the Eagles got shut down. They got some young studs on that, on that team down in Tampa. Like Todd Bowles is coaching these young kids up and they're scrappy. Like I loved going back watching that game where even when it wasn't a, even when it was a tight window, they're very handsy, very physical, the receivers. And I think that's where you need to be with this Seahawks team. And you know, jsn, a guy I gave out the lead, the league and receiving yards, I think he's second right now. He's been dominant for the Seahawks. He's been one of the best receivers in football and him and Sam Darnold have a real connection right now. So I think it's interesting to see what they do when you got Vita Ve taking a game, taking away their run game and you have some really good secondary options taking out JSN and that attacking offensive. Seahawks like again, I like the under in this game more than anything else, but I think you're getting good value on this this Bucs team of three and a half. Where again, they should have covered in my opinion last week. This lines move too much based on the injuries. It was two and a half. It did open two and a half and now it's moved up to three and a half. But like I said, if you just want to avoid it, I get it. The professionals I know that I've talked to, they like the Seahawks side. Not finding too many guys like me that love this Bucks side. So maybe I'm not reading this one correctly and that's why I'm being a little hesitant with it. But yeah, once again, just like Denver, they're getting me with the hook. I just can't believe it's. It's three and a half. I, I just this game should be three in my opinion. They desperately need money and some other people to bet this Bucks team, clearly, because this hook has just been up for three days now. So pretty, pretty interesting line here with this Seahawks Bucks game.
- [42:46]
A
Well, as John Popper once said, the hook will bring you back.
- [42:50]
B
That's true.
- [42:53]
A
By the way you shouted out Evan Abrams, greatest researcher of all time.
- [42:57]
B
All time.
- [42:57]
A
You also mentioned Dr. Nick, Dr. Nick Giffen, who created the Luck rankings over at Action, which we love. And I do believe that this is sort of the Eagles and the Broncos game is like the marquee Luck matchup in the Luck rankings this week in Favor of the Broncos if we need, if we're looking something to tip the scales, rock in a hard place. Detroit at Cincinnati. We talked about this a little bit before we came on the air. Cincinnati's at ten and a half, seven and a half, eight and a half, nine and a half. Ten, ten and a half. When's it going to stop, Simon? And like, here's another exciting stat for you also from our our pal Evan Abrams. In the first three months of the season. I saw Evan tweet this in the first three months of the season. Zach Taylor. So September, October, November is 0 and 16 without Joe Burrow as his quarterback. Okay. Like, he's clearly terrible with anyone but Joe Burrow as a coach. Here's the other thing. According to killer sports home underdogs, 10 plus points in the NFL of 10 plus points in the NFL since 1989, 54% underdogs of 10 plus points off a blowout of 25 or more, 54%. That is the history. Full disclosure, I have not bet this yet. I don't want to bet this. I know you're on the Lions.
- [44:36]
B
Yeah.
- [44:37]
A
But I feel like we should bet the Bengals.
- [44:40]
B
I know now I'm on the lines and I'll hit you with a bunch of stats. Like, I've, I really dove into this one because, because, you know, I want.
- [44:48]
A
To bet the Bengals and I'm trying.
- [44:49]
B
To find reasons why I want to be on the Bengals, but I cannot find it. And you know, these just all these stats are just so alarming. Like you said, a ton of them on social media. People want to find them. But my favorite one I saw was that the Bengals, in their last two games, they lost by 25 points. Crazy.
- [45:05]
A
Yep.
- [45:06]
B
They had under 200 total yards, under 60 rushing yards, and they were outrushed by 100 yards and gave up three plus sacks.
- [45:15]
A
It's terrible.
- [45:16]
B
No team in NFL history in the super bowl era has ever done that in a two game stretch. This is a train wreck of the team.
- [45:24]
A
They are awful. Like we've talked about this on Tuesday, the Bengals are one of the lowliest, losingest, most undecorated franchises in the history of the NFL. And the past two weeks of games have been the worst they have been in their entire franchise history. Truly terrible.
- [45:45]
B
Yeah. And I got, you know, we got lucky. Obviously. We were, we were on this team being bad this year and failing. And the Joe Burrow injury takes that up to another level. Right. And I said it before the season, I thought this would happen because they Were built like a 16 year old built this team. It's like let's pay the receiver, let's pay the quarterback, let's pay AD and the rest will just fill it out. Like just fill it out with random guys. And that's never going to work. You have to be smart with your money, manage it right. Pay guys early, do all that stuff. When you're a bad team like they are, they did the opposite. They paid all their guys late and they didn't. They haven't drafted well. And I'll go back to it. You know, the same reason we loved this Detroit team. I mean, it's been two straight weeks I've been on them and as big chalk favorites Detroit, Campbell, we saw it. He won by, you know, huge win last week by more than six points, 23 and six against the spread when he wins by seven plus. So more than seven points, 20 and five against the spread in the next game. So they're the anomaly historically. You go back to the data, there's never been teams like this. This has been the most epic run ever. There's, you know, we shit on the Tennessee Titans, the most epic run ever. If you fade them since Dan Campbell's taken over this team, this Detroit team, they're 70% against the spread. I think it's like the greatest run since some Vikings team from back in the day. It's like truly historical what we're on right now, this team. So Chad's reasoning is right. If this was week nine and this Bengals team had been as awful as they've looked, I'd have been like, well, Detroit has a bunch of injuries to their defense. Chase will be able to get open. He's going to be bitching all week. He's going to get the ball. This is the matchup for this Bengals team. But even if they get that 7 on that drive, are they going to get the 21? Are they going to get the 28? Because I feel like that's what they're going to need to do against this Lions team. I just, I don't see their defense getting stops. They don't have the guys. So Aiden Hutchinson, he's going to do his thing in this game. And offensively I just, I can see them rolling. I mean, it must be insane going from the Browns last week trying to run the ball and all the contact they were getting to this week. It's going to be like running through paper. It's going to be unreal for this Lions team. So that's why this number is what it is. The books don't want to be up this high. Like I told Chad, if you could find the nine and a half, I'd grab it. I. I just think this will be ten. Ten and a half. The professional side, sure, it is the Bengals, but I know just as many pros like me on this lion side, so it's. It's a split game. I don't know if it's gonna be one of my five. I'll make our US force it in come Sunday. But I could get.
- [48:27]
A
I don't think. I don't think I could get there.
- [48:29]
B
Yeah, again, you're on the other side. But I can't get over how bad this Bengals team is. And you're simply betting it just because of the number of the spot.
- [48:36]
A
And how often do we say you bet the number, you bet the spot.
- [48:41]
B
It's a bad number, though. Why isn't this 13?
- [48:43]
A
This is the.
- [48:43]
B
I don't know.
- [48:45]
A
Well, that. That's the handicap then, like, but at ten and a half, it's still a massive, massive number that historically everyone says everything says you bet the number, you bet the spot. That's it. It doesn't matter if it's 13 or 10 and a half. It's double digits. It's a huge number. Like, you bet the spot. I don't feel like I'm looking at our list right now. I don't feel like it's going to crack into the top five. I think we've got four settled. And I think right now Denver and Philly is sort of the rock and a hard place decision with some other games coming up. But interesting, interesting game from a handicapping perspective versus a philosophical don't look at the teams, bet the number perspective. So I'm excited to see how that one goes. I haven't bet it yet. I haven't bet it. I'm afraid to pull the trigger. Washington plus two and a half. The Los Angeles Chargers. Uh, this is when we pull. Told people to grab on Tuesday expecting Jane Jaden Daniels to play. It did get to three at some point on Tuesday. It's back down to two and a half. He was cleared. He's going to be playing. I just wanted to raise it because the number had moved and we now know who the quarterback is. Doesn't feel like it's getting into our top five unless you feel more strongly.
- [50:01]
B
Simon says, give me this. Commander's team.
- [50:04]
A
Wow.
- [50:05]
B
Call me Simon.
- [50:07]
A
What do you want?
- [50:09]
B
I want to play a game.
- [50:10]
A
What kind of game?
- [50:12]
B
Simon says, yeah, Love, love, love this game. Love this spot. I was really just waiting for it to be Daniels. Even though Mariota has been good, still would have been on it. But in my mind this probably would have got the three and a half if it was Mariota. The movement to me is right. Had this game, honestly as a pick and it is because of the injuries to his Chargers team. And I got some numbers about this Chargers.
- [50:37]
A
All right.
- [50:37]
B
And it's, it's been kind of glaring and it sucks that I got, I didn't get it. I, I should have covered. We should have covered with that Denver game. That was just Herbert pulling a rabbit a hat like he made a throw. The way his bias position, that Denver game, that throw he made, it's like.
- [50:54]
A
To Keenan Allen in the, in the end zone.
- [50:55]
B
Yeah, it's like two guys other than him in NFL history can make that throw off balance. It's, it's why people love Herbert. But when I dive into it, it's like, okay, this is historically a bad spot for Herbert and you can actually throw Harbaugh in that. So shockingly, when an east coast team comes West Harbaugh, he's 1 and 2 straight up with this Chargers team, which again, small sample. Herbert, 8, 9 straight up in this exact spot. Now. Okay, that doesn't mean much. Now let's dive into Herbert this season under pressure. Okay? Herbert again, I say it all the time. He is a great quarterback. When things are going right with him, right when his offensive line is good, he's got the weapons on the outside just like most guys would be. If you give him time, Herbert will crush the teams know that. So this year he's faced 69 drop back pressures. So that's the second most in all football behind Joe Flacco. That's alarming. You don't want to be in the same category as Joe Flacco this season. And so it's like, all right, let's dive into those numbers this last three weeks, right? So the, these last three weeks where his offense line's been banged up. He's 15 of 42, 36% passing when he's under pressure. One touchdown, two picks. So I have these numbers. I'm some douche in Jersey. The Washington commanders are going to have these numbers and they've been blitz heavy this year because they need to be. They don't have the corners to shut teams down. They have really bad corners and their front seven though has been really good. This Washington team, I know last week they got ran on, but that's actually been pretty good for them this front seven. So it's like, okay, that's, that's the way they can attack this Chargers team. They just got to get pressure on Herbert. Now you're factoring. I like this matchup for Daniels where they don't. They have injuries themselves as Chargers team through their defense. They don't have linebackers or guys that can keep up or spy Daniels. This is a bad match for them. And what I've read is he could have probably played last week. Daniels, they really wanted to get him. Right. They didn't want the Purdy situation. Right. Purdy came back to really re injured the injury. I love that they were patient with him and now he's coming back fully healthy in this matchup. So I know the public's gonna think is a bounce back spot for the Chargers team. And you know this Washington just got blown out. So I just feel like this is going to be a pro spot. Like no, the public is not going to be betting this commander spot. They're going to be back in this Chargers team which just a week ago Chad was asking me if they're better than the Chiefs, if I trust them more than the Chiefs. Which at the time I was like, I get where you're coming from. It's. This is a team that's performed way above my expectations coming to the season. How can we not overreact to the Joe all injury like this guy. You're losing your number one, number two tackles and they are down. You know, more interior offensive linemen. That's going to be Achilles heels of this team. They have. It sucks too because Herbert's got the weapons right. Keen Allen's turning back the clock. Ladsman bad. Honestly, like he's been outplayed by Johnson.
- [53:43]
A
Bad lad. Bad lad.
- [53:45]
B
Yeah, that's been bad. And Johnson's been a stud. Like they have three receivers that are all really good. Maybe the best three in the history of football.
- [53:53]
A
Oh no, you're not pulling that old chestnut out again.
- [53:58]
B
But yeah, I just. It's about the number. I love this match over this commander's team. I think they're being undervalued in this Chargers team still being. They still got that glossy lens on like they did when they beat that Chiefs team, which I was a sucker for it too. It's like this team was fully healthy right here at two and a half all over this Chargers team. That is not. They're being priced like they're that team that beat the Chiefs. This is not that same team. This is a banged up team. So, yeah, trusting the number here, trusting the spot. Hold your nose, people. This is a gross one. Give me this. Commander's team plus two and a half.
- [54:31]
A
All right. That's why I was sort of. I'm surprised to hear this. I was going to pass it because the number had moved and now we know. Daniel. So you're saying take it like it. All right, then. It's going on the list now. I feel like we're going to have a rock and a hard place between Denver Eagles and Commanders and Chargers. Last game, Kansas City at Jacksonville. I like the Jacksonville Jaguars at three and a half. They are the underdogs at home on Monday night. It hasn't moved to three, but it is headed that way. The wise guys agree with me, as you noted in sharp calls. You really love the Chiefs here. Well, oh, oh, all of a sudden. All of a sudden. The other day you were all over it, but today a little bit less confident.
- [55:18]
B
No, at times it was just me trying to talk you off it. I was like, can I get Chad off this game? Because this is going to have to be in our contest now, which sucks. It's like now I have.
- [55:26]
A
By the way, it doesn't. I don't. I don't think it does. Here's why I don't think it does.
- [55:30]
B
All right.
- [55:31]
A
I don't think it does because there are so many games this week where lines are fluky. We're going to be able to take advantage. I think that takes precedent to me. Over. Do we have to put in a hard game like this? Obviously, I bet it. I definitely bet the Jags at plus three and a half. But do I feel better about choosing the Jags over Denver, which I also bet, or choosing the Commanders, which I also bet. Like, I don't feel obligated to make this be a game that I am. I am demanding we put in the contest.
- [56:02]
B
Chad, nut up. Take a stand here.
- [56:05]
A
You.
- [56:05]
B
You love this team. This was your love's love on Tuesday. Like, you're all in. Be all in, brother. I. I get why you're hesitant. I mean, that's why I was hesitant here. And I'm like, I see Spags love licking his chops in this matchup against Trevor Lawrence. Word. Which again, they're winning despite him. They're. It's really about the run game of the turnovers. Like, you go through all the numbers. I think they've already had more turnovers this season. They did all last season. So, you know, this Jaguars team that Just might be their defense. Like we say all the time, a new team's going to make the playoffs. The Chags fit that description right now.
- [56:41]
A
By the way, did you call them the Chags because I love them so much or was that just a slip?
- [56:45]
B
No. You like that? I just. Yeah. I can't get over it. It's like you said, it's the pros. The pros are on it with Chad. And when we got done our show, I put it in like I've been doing every week. I try to put it in our five right away and then try to make minimum changes on it. Maybe one or two tops out of those five. Because like we said, our early reads tend to be the right reads and we overthink it come Sunday.
- [57:09]
A
It's true.
- [57:10]
B
So it's gonna be hard for me, honestly. Take them out now because I have them in there. I see your reasoning, and this is going to be shaping up to be one of the big public sides. Like, I talked to multiple bookmakers in different states. That's a big thing for me. I like hearing from all different states because I don't want to just be regional. It's all chief's money. Everyone's thinking like I am. Like, this is such a Spags matchup against Trevor. This is a Jaguars team that's been very fortunate. They've gotten away with it. But I view it as, you know, maybe I'm overrating too much of that Chiefs offense against that Ravens defense. This is a good defense in this Jaguars team, which I'm coming around on. And there are ways to attack Spags defense right now because they do have injuries and they are slower than they've been in the past. So the pros love Chad's number. They love the three and a half. And that, to me, is the key here. If you're getting the three and a half with the hook, I get it. Maybe I won't be betting this one, but I will support your bet in this Jaguar side.
- [58:08]
A
Then we're probably gonna have to put it in because I'm nutting up. No one challenges my ability to nut up. You gotta Simon Brass piss.
- [58:19]
B
If you're right, you're a genius. If you're wrong, you're a fucking idiot.
- [58:22]
A
Isn't that everything, though? That's how I live my life, Duvall. So right now we know we're gonna put the Rams in. It's Thursday. Just so people know we're putting the Rams in. We're probably going to put the Texans in. Because in Our contest, the line is at three and a half. We understand you're not going to get that. We gave incredible discourse on that game Sunday. We're going to talk about the Saints, we're going to talk about the jets, we're going to talk about Denver Commanders. And I mean, the Jags are going to be in, so I'm not sure who we're going to get out. We'll have to. We'll have to figure that out on Sunday. Simon, give me your biggest bets.
- [58:59]
B
All the work, all the talk, all the handicapping is done. It's time for history. It's not going to help people much because it was. I mean, the Rams, obviously, Houston, are part of it, so we'll throw those two out. I would say the other ones I'm like, heavily bent into right now. Commanders, I mean, it's so gross, but it's true. Saints. And, you know, I'm probably going to have more on it. Like, again, it was the four and a half. I did bet the Denver, but I've been patient on that one. If they get back to four and a half or it gets back to four, that'll probably be another one of my bigger bets. So, yeah, for right now, definitely. Commanders. I've really taken a strong position on that one, and I can't believe it. The Saints, I just. They have to. If this has to be the one winner, you know, if they get two wins this year, this has to be the one that they get. I just can't get over this spot against a rookie on the road here. Once again, Spencer Rattler. Not as bad as we perceive.
- [59:52]
A
And you're betting into it even with them as favorites?
- [59:55]
B
Yeah, no, I've been even in them as favorite betting. It, like, to me, it's the two that's been. I've been staying away from. Like, there's a couple books I've gotten to this. The Saints at two. I've not. I have zero twos, but I do have a ton of one and a halfs on the Saints team.
- [60:06]
A
Got it. All right. Moneyline, Round robin underdog Parlay.
- [60:13]
B
My dog likes your dog.
- [60:15]
A
Your dog likes your dog. My dog, I would say Panthers, Broncos, Jets.
- [60:22]
B
You want to do Broncos? Well, I'm six lifetime.
- [60:26]
A
Okay. How about. I'm just throwing out some names. You correct.
- [60:30]
B
Now they're gonna win just because I have doubt on it.
- [60:32]
A
Exactly.
- [60:33]
B
Damn it.
- [60:33]
A
Panthers, Broncos, Jets, Commanders. Who else do we want to put in there? Jags.
- [60:41]
B
Oh, my God. That's fair.
- [60:44]
A
Let's go all in. Why not go all in.
- [60:46]
B
I'm off that one. I would do. I mean, I have to do it. We got to go. Was it plus 180 here? The Cleveland Browns.
- [60:55]
A
Okay.
- [60:56]
B
Gotta throw that in there. I mean, it's a gross game, but it's like that is such a coin flip game. I obviously know the Vikings are going to be, you know, the professional side and the public, like I said, they're all over the Browns. But we've seen historically the Chalky. Chalky public side has done well international. So I'll just get them in and I don't know if we got the jets in there. The jets are up.
- [61:17]
A
We got the Jets. Here's the. Here's the teams we have now. I took the Broncos out. So our money line, round robin underdog, parlay, Panthers, Jets, Commanders, Jags, Browns.
- [61:32]
B
Let's go.
- [61:33]
A
Round robin moneyline favorite parlay, Cardinals, Cardinals, Colts, Bills.
- [61:45]
B
See what the Bills are? Bills are. Yeah, we can throw them in there. Minus 245. If you want to do the bills. Minus two and a half people in your round robin, that's. That's probably better value. I just. I honestly think they're going to roll the Patriots there, but just to be safe. I know. Mac or not Mac, I shouldn't say that. Drake May, he's 2. 0 against the spread in his career against the Bill, so he's kept it close in those spots. But like me and Chad both agree, this is. We didn't talk much about it. I love that Patriots game so much because if the Patriots win it, this could be the start of something for them. As a fan, where it's like, you beat the big bad wolf. Like that is. This is your dream scenario. Drake May, who people are being like, this guy's the greatest quarterback ever. Have you seen his stats through three, four weeks? All that is just noise and bullshit. This is truly defining career season type of game for Drake May, where if he steals this game, oh, my God, even pundits like me are going to have to give him a ton of credit. But this should be a. Josh Allen beats the shit out of this Patriots team. So I'm with you. I like them throwing them in there.
- [62:48]
A
And Cardinals, Bills, Lions, Colts. And I put in Seahawks.
- [62:53]
B
Yeah, okay, I'll do that.
- [62:55]
A
Moneyline round robin, Cardinals, Bills, Lions, Seahawks, Colts. Survivor, Arizona Cardinals.
- [63:10]
B
Yep. Don't think about it. We're doing it. I'm probably going to beat on Arizona's number two. It's. I know it's minus seven and a half, but yeah, I'm. I just. The more I watch this Tennessee team, they look totally checked out.
- [63:21]
A
All right, Sharp versus Square. You won last week. You had the Rams, I had the Niners. This. So you get to go first. Who are you gonna take?
- [63:31]
B
Just going all in on the. On the Saints. I'm gonna go to Saints.
- [63:35]
A
Wow.
- [63:36]
B
I know. I hate it, but it's. I can't do Commanders again. I just came out Simon says, so.
- [63:40]
A
Right. I was gonna say two Simon says.
- [63:42]
B
In a week has kind of set me back a little bit because usually I can use my second favorite bet for this, but I'll go my third favorite bet. Give me. Give me the Saints.
- [63:49]
A
Interesting. I will go with. If we're gonna go bad. If you're going to go with the Saints, I'm going to go with the Jets.
- [63:57]
B
There you go.
- [63:58]
A
So there we go. Sharp versus Square this week. Jets and Saints. I thought we were going to do Chiefs versus Jags, but it feels like you've walked away from that a little bit.
- [64:06]
B
And we can, but I don't want to have the Jugs in our contest and then have to bet it. And I'm, like, rooting against it.
- [64:12]
A
That's true.
- [64:12]
B
That's. That's very. Chad. That's not me.
- [64:15]
A
I don't do that at all.
- [64:16]
B
You do it all the time.
- [64:17]
A
I hate that feeling. I hate all of the feelings. You know, this every feeling makes me uncomfortable. Other than unadulterated joy and optimism that ignores all bad news and anything that is uncomfortable, I don't want any other feelings in life or in betting.
- [64:37]
B
Yeah. Got one more step before we go. I just. I love someone. Just literally text me this stat. 49ers pressure rate last week without Nick Bosa, 32nd in the league.
- [64:49]
A
It's not good.
- [64:50]
B
Not good.
- [64:50]
A
No bueno. All right. This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume Podcast Network. We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube on Sunday morning as you eavesdrop on an intimate conversation between me and Simon in which we will panic, make utterly human decisions, and regret the rest of the day. Then we will be back On Sharper Square YouTube Sunday night, 7:30 ish. As soon as the late afternoon games end. To recap all that misery, watch or listen on YouTube @Sharpersquare. Like this video? Subscribe to the channel. Also download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate. Review. Subscribe. Leave us 5 stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.