Sharp or Square – NFL Week 5 Bets
Podcast: Sharp or Square
Host(s): Chad Millman (A), Simon Hunter (B)
Date: October 2, 2025
Episode Theme: This episode dives deep into Week 5 NFL betting lines, helping listeners identify which bets are "sharp" (favored by professionals) or "square" (popular with the general public). Chad and Simon discuss marquee matchups, rapid line movements, and which side of key games professional gamblers are betting—with a focus on the contest picks, moneyline parlays, and survivor pool picks.
Episode Overview
- Purpose: To analyze and debate Week 5 NFL betting lines, highlighting "sharp" professional perspectives, the best value sides, and how to anticipate and react to rapid line moves.
- Notable Changes: New Simon Says and Rock and a Hard Place bet format tweaks; more focus on contest strategy and how line moves impact real betting opportunities.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Sharp Calls & Early Line Movements
- Games pros are on:
- Rams: Number ballooned up to 9 due to injuries with the 49ers ([04:00]).
- Miami: Heavy pro action against the Panthers ([04:24]).
- Cowboys: Supported by many professionals ([04:25]).
- Saints: "Tons of pro love" ([04:25]).
- Seahawks: Some surprise pro love ([04:25]).
- Jags: Pros like Jacksonville at +3.5 ([04:25]).
- Vegas: Sharp money on Raiders despite Simon's initial lean to Colts ([05:29]).
- Disagreement: Notably more sharp/public splits this week—“Got a lot of hate this week” – Simon ([05:41]).
2. Thursday Night: 49ers at Rams ([06:43])
- Massive movement from 3.5 to 9 due to 49ers injuries: Purdy out, receivers banged up, Bosa out.
- Simon: “Shanahan, he’s actually awful in these spots… when Shanahan’s a huge dog like this, I believe in his career, he’s 1 in 18 straight up.” ([06:55])
- Chad: “I did bet it on Tuesday at five and a half… hopefully people were paying attention.” ([08:47])
- Contest Pick: Rams locked at +5.5 for the contest—a “good, good way to start the week.” ([08:47])
3. London Game: Browns vs. Vikings ([09:00])
- QB Switch: Dylan Gabriel starts for Browns.
- Leaning Browns: Due to Cleveland D-line dominance vs. banged up Vikings O-line.
- Simon: “Bad spot… rookie’s first start, you couldn’t honestly pick the worst matchup for Dylan Gabriel.” ([11:16])
- Total: Under was early sharp value, has moved drastically down ([11:40]).
4. Panthers at Dolphins ([12:57])
- Line flipping back and forth around pick’em.
- Simon cautious due to Panthers’ injuries and Bryce Young’s struggles: “He just doesn’t look right yet mentally… Bryce Young slowly but surely he’s playing himself out of the NFL.” ([15:51])
- Both still leaning Panthers if getting points ([15:51]).
5. Giants at Saints ([16:41])
- Line has moved from Saints +2 to -2.
- Simon makes the case for Saints: “Spencer Rattler is much better than people think… this is a desperate Saints team.” ([17:33], [19:32])
- Not worried about Rattler as a favorite; Saints’ opponent on a rookie’s 2nd road start—bad historical spot ([17:33]).
- Chad: “I’ve wanted to be on them the whole week and… just bummed about the number.” ([20:59])
6. Texans at Ravens ([21:39])
- Original Simon Says: Texans +3.5 before Lamar Jackson injury news.
- Line Move: As info about Lamar’s status broke, the line collapsed—pros pounced.
- Simon (on “inside info”): “I had a very, very, very reliable source where it's like, holy s***, [Lamar] might be really banged up.” ([25:24])
- If stuck with Houston at +3.5, hold; at much lower numbers, be patient ([22:22], [22:56]).
7. Broncos at Eagles ([25:49])
- Opened Eagles -4.5, moved to -3.5. Most pros and the hosts like Denver’s value as a big dog.
- Simon says Eagles “keep getting away with it,” and Broncos are the luckier side in the ‘luck rankings’ ([27:43], [42:57]).
8. Cowboys at Jets (Brass Balls Bet of the Week) ([30:54])
- Jets are a sharp, very contrarian play at +2.5.
- Chad (on Jets as Brass Balls): “Jets. Jets. Jets. Jets. Brass balls Bet of the Week.” ([36:07])
- Simon: “You need to… have some balls here, people to take them. So I love that we're all in line on this side. Give me the jets plus two and a half.” ([35:54])
9. Bucs at Seahawks ([39:00])
- Simon loves Bucs due to Baker Mayfield’s underdog trends, but acknowledges a split with professionals liking Seahawks ([40:02]).
- “Baker has been so good to me in these exact spots” - Simon, 15-8 ATS as a dog ([40:02]).
- Both recognize it’s a tricky matchup and the Seahawks defense is a real threat.
10. Lions at Bengals ([44:35])
- Bengals huge underdogs with historic trendlines against major dog situations.
- Simon: “This is a train wreck of the team… I just can't get over how bad this Bengals team is.” ([45:16], [48:28])
- Chad: Philosophically would like to bet spot/number, but not confident Bengals can hang.
11. Commanders at Chargers (New Simon Says) ([50:01])
- Simon: “Love, love, love this game. Love this spot.”
- Cites injury issues for the Chargers, pressure on Herbert, and a strong spot for Washington with Jaden Daniels returning ([50:36], [53:43]).
- “Commanders are going to have these numbers and they've been blitz heavy because they need to be.” ([51:44])
12. Chiefs at Jaguars ([54:31])
- Chad continues to love Jags +3.5; Simon leans Chiefs but respects the sharp movement and Chad’s conviction ([56:04], [57:10]).
- Lots of pros on Chad’s side; line likely to close lower ([57:10]).
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On following sharp money:
“Got a lot of hate. A lot of hate this week. That's. I mean, it's gambling, man.”
– Simon ([05:41]) -
On 49ers injuries:
“You're not getting the Niners super bowl caliber roster that you thought you might be getting…”
– Chad ([06:48]) -
On Saints’ desperation (and Spencer Rattler):
“I can't talk about enough people with sports being desperate, especially as a professional. It's a real thing.”
– Simon ([19:32]) -
On playing line value:
“Hopefully people were paying attention. All right, Rams, it's getting out. It's getting, it's getting out of hand. I wouldn't be betting the Rams now but hopefully everyone was able to get that Rams five and a half.”
– Chad ([08:47]) -
On Jets as Brass Balls Bet:
“Jets. Jets. Jets. Jets. Brass balls Bet of the Week.”
– Chad ([36:07])
“You need…to have some balls here, people to take them.”
– Simon ([35:54]) -
On Chargers Commanders:
“Love, love, love this game. Love this spot. I was really just waiting for it to be Daniels. Even though Mariota has been good, still would have been on it. But in my mind this probably would have got the three and a half if it was Mariota.”
– Simon ([50:11])
Timestamps for Important Segments
- [03:50] Sharp Calls – pro money breakdown on key games
- [06:43] Thursday Night Football analysis (Rams/49ers)
- [09:00] European Game: Browns/Vikings injuries and QB change
- [12:57] Dolphins/Panthers line movement and injury impact
- [16:41] Giants/Saints and handicapping ugly matchups
- [21:39] Texans/Ravens—how inside info and injuries move markets
- [25:49] Broncos/Eagles—why the pros are high on Denver
- [30:54] Cowboys/Jets: “Brass Balls Bet of the Week”
- [39:00] Bucs/Seahawks—does Baker as a dog trump Seattle’s D?
- [44:35] Lions/Bengals—when to trust the spot over the awful team?
- [50:01] Commanders/Chargers—new “Simon Says” top pick
- [54:31] Chiefs/Jags—where Chad and Simon stand on SNF
Contest Strategy, Moneyline Parlay & Survivor Picks
Top Contest Considerations
- Rams +5.5 (locked early; strong consensus)
- Texans +3.5 (still contest value)
- Saints (line gone, but pro favorite)
- Jets +2.5 (“Brass Balls Bet”)
- Commanders +2.5 (Simon Says)
- Possible: Broncos +4.5, Jags +3.5
Moneyline Round Robin Dogs
- Panthers, Jets, Commanders, Jaguars, Browns ([61:31])
Moneyline Round Robin Favorites
- Cardinals, Bills, Lions, Seahawks, Colts ([62:54])
Survivor Pick
- Cardinals: “Don’t think about it. We’re doing it.” ([63:10])
Final Sharp vs Square Picks
- Simon (Sharp): Saints
- Chad (Square): Jets ([63:56])
Tone & Takeaways
The episode is a mix of sharp analytical breakdown and locker-room banter, with deep dives into injury impact, professional betting consensus, and strong emphasis on getting the best number before lines move. Simon is relentlessly focused on value and data, while Chad ensures the insights are actionable for regular bettors.
Key Message:
Stay alert to rapid market shifts, look for pro money cues, and don’t be afraid to go contrarian (“have some balls”)—but always get the best of the number.
Listen if:
You want a concise yet thorough breakdown of every major NFL game for Week 5, understand the sharp/square divide, appreciate inside betting info and actionable contest/team/line strategies.