Sharp or Square: NFL Week 6 Bets Breakdown

Podcast: Sharp or Square, iHeartPodcasts & The Volume
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Episode Date: October 9, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode, Chad Millman and professional sports bettor Simon Hunter dissect Week 6 of the NFL, focusing on where sharp (pro) versus square (public) money is landing for the week's biggest matchups. They break down lines, trends, and their favorite and least favorite bets of the week, giving listeners key stats and actionable insights for bettors of all stripes.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Sharp Calls: Notable Line Moves & Pro Betting Action

• Simon recaps sharp money movement:
  • Panthers Line: Dropped from 3.5 to 3; pros bet Carolina heavy early ([02:01]).
  • Chiefs vs. Lions: Heavy pro money coming in on the Chiefs despite public love for Detroit ([03:56]).
  • 49ers vs. Bucs: Unexpected sharp support for the Niners; pros cited injury issues for Bucs but the hosts remain skeptical ([02:01], [04:48]).
  • Jags & Colts: Sharps on both sides but especially on undervalued Jags ([02:01], [18:51]).

2. Deep Dives Into Major Games

Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers

• Why the Panthers?
  • Public is on Dallas, but pros have hammered Carolina at +3.5, pushing the line down.
  • Cowboys' defense: "Dallas dead last in defensive DVOA... This defense is truly awful." (Chad, [04:48])
  • Bryce Young home/away splits: "On back-to-back home games in his career, he's 4-1 against the spread." (Simon, [08:04])
  • Dak's dominance vs. bad teams worrisome, but most of those years Dallas had a defense, which isn't the case now ([06:42]-[10:31]).

Miami Dolphins at LA Chargers

• Brass Balls Bet of the Week: Chargers +4 #[12:17], [14:59]
  • Flips narrative from recent losses; Circumstances align for Chargers' offense (Herbert vs. Zone, Dolphins' poor secondary).
  • Chargers' Herbert is 13-6 ATS in east coast games; "Early in the year, 12-6 against the spread." (Simon, [13:19])
  • Both hosts acknowledge fear of Chargers' inability to close: "Last three seasons... one in ten in one-score games... It's a damning stat." (Simon, [14:59])

Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars

• Pros on the Jags: Jags healthier, still undervalued, trends favor McDonald-coached teams on the road ([18:51]).
  • Hosts not rushing to contest; nervous about betting on Lawrence again: "No one wants to put their money back on the Trevor Lawrence experience." (Chad, [19:45])
  • Jaguars can run; Seahawks defense banged up.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers

• Steelers Still the Side: Opened -4, now -5.5; "If you were listening... you could have had the Steelers at minus four." (Chad, [22:29])
  • Tomlin post-bye trends: "He's 8-0 since 2017... that's a big deal to me." (Simon, [23:58])
  • Browns rookie QB on road post-London—tough spot.

New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints

• The Podcast’s Biggest Rift: Simon says Saints, Chad leans Patriots.
  • Market moved from 3.5 to 3 in some places; pros on both sides.
  • Spencer Rattler’s unexpected competence: "The only other QB [with those stats] is Drew Brees in 2018." (Simon, [29:19])
  • Saints defense handling the run; hosts divided, might flip for contest entry ([27:10]-[35:59]).

Tennessee Titans at Las Vegas Raiders

• Play the Raiders, Fade the Titans Emotional Win
  • Titans run defense bottom three by metrics; Raiders have weapons and urgency.
  • Stat of the week: "Three rookie QBs have come back down 17+ in NFL history; all lost the next game by 20+." (B, [39:35])
  • Pros on Titans raises alarms, but hosts disagree: "What is this line? Honest to god, what is this line?" (Chad, [39:35])

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers

• Confusion Reigns On Why Sharps Love the 49ers
  • Purdy and key WRs not practicing, Bucs getting no market respect.
  • "It feels like... you're betting on lightning striking twice." (Simon, [44:42])
  • Simon: "Maybe we just have a blind spot here." ([44:07]-[46:08])

Colts vs. Cardinals & Packers vs. Bengals

• Colts: Benefitting from Cardinals' consecutive close losses and internal strife.
  • Trend: "Since 2013, teams that lost three straight by three points or less: 1-8 straight up in next game." (Simon, [47:03])
• Packers: Joe Flacco starting for Bengals is not a saving grace; line ballooned to 14.5 ([49:39]-[52:29]).

Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs (Primetime)

• Chiefs Drawing the Sharps Despite Lion Hype
  • Line movement favors Chiefs despite overwhelming public action on Detroit ([52:29]).
  • Key Trends for Mahomes:
    • "Mahomes as a dog/team -3 or less: 29-12-1 ATS." (Simon, [54:11])
    • "Vs. juggernaut offenses (scoring 30+/game): 5-0 straight up." (Simon, [54:11])
  • Lion injuries mounting; Chiefs’ spot historically fruitful.

Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders

• Line Inflated, Bears the Value
  • Model says Bears should be +3, market at +4.5/+4 ([60:43]).
  • Simon: "What do [sharps] like about the commander side? It's a weird line." ([60:51])

3. Best Bets, Moneyline Parlays, Survivor Picks

Simon’s Top Bets (ATS):

• Carolina +3.5
• Saints +3.5
• Steelers (took early at -4, still okay at -5.5)
• Chiefs (anticipates being big on this one) ([65:24])

Round Robin Underdog Parlay:

• Saints
• Panthers
• Bears
• Detroit
• Seahawks ([66:18])

Favorite Chalk (Moneyline Parlay):

• Raiders
• Eagles
• Steelers
• Colts
• Rams
• Chargers
• (Alt-line: Packers -6.5) ([66:43], [67:23])

Survivor Pick:

• Green Bay Packers ([64:18])

4. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "This is a historically bad Dallas defense." — Chad ([04:48])
• "Dak is going to win this game somehow. But if you get the hook, it's a real live cover..." — Simon ([09:49])
• "Last three seasons the Chargers… 1 in 10 in one-score games. That's a damning stat." — Simon ([14:59])
• "Nobody wants to put their money back on the Trevor Lawrence experience." — Chad ([19:45])
• "Mike Tomlin… is 8-0 [post-bye week] since 2017." — Simon ([23:58])
• "Spencer Rattler and Drew Brees [stat]! In 2025." — Simon ([29:19])
• "Three rookie QBs come back down 17+… all lost the following game by like 20 points." — Simon ([39:35])
• "This number… feels like a gift getting minus three on a Bucs team." — Simon ([44:08])
• "Mahomes, when underdog or -3 or less: 29-12-1. You have to back Mahomes in this spot." — Simon ([54:11])

5. Contest Pool and “Rock and a Hard Place” Bets

Strong Contest Considerations:

• Panthers
• Chargers (Brass Balls Bet)
• Steelers
• Saints
• Raiders
• Bucs
• Chiefs
• Bears ([63:43])

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [02:01] — Early sharp action and market review
• [04:48] — Deep dive: Cowboys at Panthers
• [12:17] — Brass Balls Bet: Chargers at Dolphins
• [18:51] — Seahawks vs. Jags: pros love Jags
• [22:29] — Browns at Steelers: Tomlin/Steelers trends
• [27:10] — Patriots at Saints: the show's biggest disagreement
• [39:35] — Titans at Raiders: why the sharp love for Titans?
• [44:07] — 49ers at Bucs: pro market confusion
• [52:29] — Lions at Chiefs: massive sharp/public split
• [60:43] — Bears at Commanders: value on Chicago
• [65:24] — Simon’s biggest bets and parlays

Summary

Chad and Simon work through NFL Week 6’s sharpest angles, focusing on major line moves, surprising professional sentiment, and how to best position contest picks and moneyline parlays. The podcast toggles between sharp data and gut-feel reactions, with expert-level disagreement and inside jokes—anchoring advice with actionable context.

For listeners who missed the episode:

• Expect deep-dive trends, healthy skepticism, and a refusal to blindly follow market sentiment.
• Their consensus leans are Panthers (with the hook), Chargers (despite nerves), Steelers (classic Tomlin spot), and Chiefs (fading the public’s Lions love).
• They caution against chasing bad numbers or letting recent win/loss recency bias outweigh the numbers.

“Brass Balls Bet” for the week: Chargers +4
Sharps vs. Squares Lightning Round:

• Simon: Chiefs
• Chad: Panthers +3