← Sharp or Square
Sharp or Square
SHARP NFL Week 7 Bets: Cowboys-Commanders, Colts-Chargers, Bucs-Lions, Patriots-Titans, Saints-Bears and more
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- [00:00]
Simon Hunter
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- [00:36]
Chad Millman
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Volume Podcast network. This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman and I am joined by my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [01:00]
Simon Hunter
Chad. What's up, brother?
- [01:01]
Chad Millman
Listen, man, a lot of concerns about your hair. And as anyone can see, anyone who can see, anyone can see who's watching this on YouTube right now. Like, you are filling the entire frame, my brother. You are flowing. You have, as the kids say, lettuce. But to me, this is like our playoff beard right now. No haircuts for you. You cannot even think about it. You cannot be tempted. Who was the. The biblical guy with the hair? Samson. You're Samson right now and you cannot get a cut. For the record, I'm getting a haircut on Saturday. I gotta keep it tight. You know, I can't. I can't live without. I'm too vain to let it go.
- [01:47]
Simon Hunter
No, I can't wait. It's much needed, but like we said, I'm very superstitious. I will if we get winning. That's all that matters. So, yeah, it's my. Me being uncomfortable and having hair that's just constantly in my eyes. It's. It's annoying, but it's, it's worth it. If we get those W's and I keep making money. Chad.
- [02:04]
Chad Millman
Man bun. Simon. That's. That's never. That is what we are going for.
- [02:12]
Simon Hunter
It'd be a mullet before it becomes a man bun. I promise to the people that I'd cut the edges long before.
- [02:19]
Chad Millman
Oh, man. Well, if we keep winning, I'd like to see that too. If you're making promises, you're going to have to deliver. This is our Thursday week seven episode. We're going to narrow down the options on our quest to find five picks we agree on for this week. We're inching our way ever closer reminder. I know we've been saying this, but we're getting so close. It's just a little bit of logistics on the back end, but we are so close to announcing the return of the free to play five picks a week pick em contest against the spread thanks to our benevolent, benevolent sponsorship. Hard rock bet. All credit to them. Another reminder watch on YouTube. Apple pods. Listen, Spotify, listen. Subscribe. All right, let's get into this thing. Every week we're gonna give out our picks. Every week, the professional betters, the, the wise guys, they're going to have opinions about what we talk about on Tuesday. It's a given. Normally they don't like what we're saying and we're going to get some criticism, we're going to get some feedback, we're going to get some pushback. They'll call Simon. They'll tell him what they think. As usual on Thursdays, every week it's time for sharp call.
- [03:34]
Simon Hunter
I have to answer this phone.
- [03:37]
Chad Millman
All right.
- [03:39]
Simon Hunter
Ring, ring, telephone ring. Somebody said, baby, what you doing? Yeah. It feels like we only get a little disagreement, but this week we gonna start with the things that maybe we're just on the other side of. A lot of these professionals talked about how we liked Atlanta. Know a lot of pros that are like the 49ers once again.
- [03:59]
Chad Millman
I'm kind of glad, by the way.
- [04:00]
Simon Hunter
Huh?
- [04:01]
Chad Millman
I'm kind of glad.
- [04:02]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. But again, I. My pushback to them is like, weren't you guys the same ones shouting from the rooftops how amazing of a spot last week was for the 49ers against an overrated Bucks team? See ya.
- [04:12]
Chad Millman
Okay.
- [04:13]
Simon Hunter
But I just. I just got a lot of shockingly. Got a good amount of calls about that one. Got a couple calls that you know about Chad's choice. So we might dive into that one a little bit. A lot, A lot of. A lot of love for Miami especially.
- [04:28]
Chad Millman
I've noticed. I've noticed.
- [04:30]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. So got a couple ones about that. But again, I don't know if I totally agree with. I think I. I like Chad's choice. Some calls about the Rams. McVeigh apparently is really good. International games. Okay. I mean that's not going to be one I'm going to spend too much time worrying about. It's like not. And I have a position I've been taking much about. Just want people to know that there are pros on that side and for the chalky side. A lot of love for Panthers for a couple pros. I know. And let's get to the Ones that maybe we've nailed. Chad. Tennessee, they love it. Minnesota, they love it. We didn't really spend much time talking about the Saints. A lot of pros love for the Saints. That's a good spot, good number. Obviously we're going to talk about Raiders. We love that was a, a big talking point. A lot of pros and our Monday night special Chad, we might have to do it. Every pro I talk who likes our Detroit pick. Every pro I talked who likes our Houston pick. So we, we have some decisions to make this week because I'm I, I like those spots. The more I talk to guys the more it feels like okay we might been locked in and that those are really good spots those two money night doubleheader games. So yeah I would say we had a a little bit of pushback for the most part. A lot of love for our picks and we'll see because again the public has just began crush this year. We we know the data. We've seen the numbers. It's been the dream is professional better and like I joke with people if you're listening to someone shows or your you know pain like a sucker for someone's picks on social media and they have a losing record in the NFL this season. They are the square of squares. You are dealing with a legit a square because I know pros who they don't do anything work wise. They don't put 80 hours of work in a week. They simply fade the public and ride with the books. It's like one of their most profitable years I can remember. So it's, it's a good year to build the books. It's been a good year to bet these dogs and you know I feel like when you mean you have done well taking favorites when we need to this season and this week again we're on a couple favorites. So do love the dogs this week like a lot of the pros do but there's some favorites they're not. You know I didn't get a ton of calls about the Chargers. I still love the Chargers just because a lot of pros don't love it and a couple of them are on the Colts. I still think that's a Charger spot and like Washington all a lot of pros I talked to like Cowboys. I still think Washington's a good spot. So it's, it's an interesting week with professionals going back and forth in a lot of these games.
- [06:53]
Chad Millman
Well a lot of short lines so you're going to get a lot of two way action on short lines. All right, that was sharp calls. Let's get into the games real quickly. You mentioned Chiefs Raiders. I don't want to spend too much time on it. I don't think we're going to put it in our contest. We want it to be patient. We want it to get to 12, 12 and a half in my opinion. Sure, go ahead, bet the Raiders. But I don't think you're necessarily betting a power ranking here. You're kind of just betting the number. I don't think we're, we need to spend too much time on it because it's not going to be a contest play. It's just sort of play the number, play the dog, fade the public kind of play.
- [07:34]
Simon Hunter
To me this is a long term winner though. This is a play you have to make. If you listen to the show, you have to bet the Raiders. I mean I can just give some quick numbers. Like there's tons of data that backs it up as a favorite of a touchdown or more. So Mahomes since 2020, he's 36 and two straight up. There's only two losses in that time frame. Chat since 2020, both against the Raiders. So it's a weird unique spot. You know, he's 30, 13 and 24 against the spread as a favorite of seven points or more. So like we talked about, we like to fade him when he's big favorites. We like to back him when he's a short favorite or a dog moms. These numbers all back that up. And just something to keep in mind, it's divisional games are very stupid. That was my whole point about bringing this up and kind of hammering home. Like I just told you, Mahomes, he doesn't lose ever in the spot. He's only lost twice against Raiders. So if you go back and look through those games, it's a joke. It's like, you know, the, the Raiders were, I think one game There were a third point, 13 point dog. The other game they were like this, there were a 12 point dog. So I get it. Like I'm not going to bang the table here about this one, but it's just all these numbers, there's even more numbers. There's another Marisol Mahomes, 11 point favorite or more. He's 6 and 12 in his career against the spread. So again, another spot to like it. In his last 11, he's 2 and 9 against the spread. So it's like we gotta do it. I know we're not. We have a lot of games we like this Week. So I probably won't force it in. Just don't be shocked people if I, if I do get these glassy eyes to it come Sunday morning because I see how ugly it is with Gino. I think you're in the same boat. We just don't trust him. But it's like historically we have to bet this, this is a long term winner in a position we need to take. And you know, Mahomes outside his division is a big favorite. He's done really well in his division. He's 4:12 and 1 his last 16. So against the spread. So it's just something to keep bringing up that is that numbers are always inflated and they're tend to be more inflate against guys in his own division. So I, I agree with you though. There are games I like more. It's just I have taken a position on this one and I'm betting the Raiders and like I said, I was hoping I was going to get to 13. The pros, they have the same number as I do. They, they've, they've come in, it never touched 13. It only got up to 12 and a half. Like Chet said, it's a dead number. Not going to be one of our bets most likely. But yeah, I, I do like the Raiders in the spot.
- [09:51]
Chad Millman
All right. You just mentioned this in sharp calls. Miami at Cleveland. Cleveland is a 2 1/2 point favorite. This was Chad's choice. The 2 1/2 lasted for about 24 hours after our show and it got bumped up to three because I move lines. We know that the bettors buying it back, moving back down to two and a half. I'm gonna be honest and I didn't know this was gonna be in sharp calls, but I could have predicted it. I would have felt better if it stayed at three for a little bit longer. I'm kind of surprised by the buyback. And then I will tell you also the fact that over the past 24 hours Tua's been taking blowback for his comments about the team meetings and the players only meetings. And now he's apologizing and Mike McDaniel gave him a little bit of grief at a press conference about it. That worries me. It worries me because when those teams are at their lowest and you think you've got it nailed, that's when you end up getting burned a little bit. I'm still on the Browns. I still like the Browns in this spot. I like it situationally. I like the matchup karmically. If I, if I Can't think of a better word. I'm getting a little anxious.
- [11:08]
Simon Hunter
That's funny because I've gone the total opposite way. Right. I was with you on Cleveland because I liked the spot. I thought two and a half was a good number. The Miami dysfunction is like, this is the best. This is exactly what I wanted and needed for this matchup. Like, they should be focused on the game and going against one of the best defensive lines they're going to face all year. They're not. They're worried about all this other bs, which is like, this is what bad teams do. This is how bad teams stay bad. They don't worry about what's on the field, what they need to deal with on the field. They're worrying about what guys aren't coming to meetings at the right time or. I mean, I don't know if you've been watching the tour stuff. He and I don't want to joke about ct, but the stuff he says week to week, it feels like he's got something going on upstairs. Like he doesn't make sense and like he was saying how he doesn't want guys on the team talking about other people and being distraction where he's the guy that just did it. And it's like, okay, maybe a zero self awareness. I don't know. He's just saying the most bizarre things that like people just don't want to hear. Like even like a week or two ago, he's talking about how, like, he doesn't care what happens on the field because he goes home to a loving family. That's a great mentality. We all. That's great. Like, everyone agrees with that. Don't say that to your fans who know you're making hundreds of million dollars. That's why you should care how you do on the field. And if you win or lose and all of it, it's just, it's just so negative. So I'm still with you. I was shocked, honestly. These pros, it's like, dude, you got away with one last week with Miami. Like, you're really going back to this Miami. Well, again, after you. You clearly stole a game against the Chargers. I, I can't believe it. So I'm with you. I was shocked to hear in sharp calls. I still like Cleveland. But yeah, if it's, if we get pushed off, if this is down to, you know, Cleveland -1 1 1/2 and the pros have come in very heavy on Miami again. Sure. Like, we'll avoid it Sunday morning. We'll put in the contest because we have so many other games we like. But yeah, I, I still think this is just a great, great matchup for Cleveland.
- [13:07]
Chad Millman
I'm so glad to hear you say that because I loved my handicap at the game. Like, I was so excited about it. When I finally came to that conclusion. At some point, you know, before we came on the air Tuesday, I'm like, I nailed it. There's three or four games that I freaking nailed, and I feel like I totally nailed this one. So now you're booing me with confidence. I'm glad we'll stay on Cleveland minus two and a half. I hope, I hope it doesn't continue to go down and we don't get more chatter from wise guys, but I like Cleveland. Two and a half. New Orleans, Chicago. You mentioned this. Uh, we discussed it a little bit on Tuesday. It's moved a half point in the Saints direction. Uh, here's my question. This move so much on Monday night after the Bears beat the Commanders in the final second to move from four and a half to five and a half. I think it was a head fake. I think the wise guys moved it to five and a half so they could buy back at four and a half. Because I think the entire wise guy community right now is in love with Spencer Rattler. That's what I think.
- [14:10]
Simon Hunter
That could be fair. Honestly, I'm shocked. But I just. The Saints, even Spencer Rattler, he's not good on the road. I know it's a short sample this year, but even this year he's not been good on the road. And the Bears, my whole view was. I just thought it was inflated line where like I said, the Saints, the public is not on them. There's no one like it is a pros team. Like, you're right. But then, yeah, like you dive into the trends and the numbers. Sure, you as a Bears fan, you could probably attest to this. But again, it's. It's different because the coaching change, but it does include this year. So the last four games on short rest with Caleb Williams, he's 014 straight up in those games. He's only getting 15 points per game. So. Okay, struggles in short rest again. That's a big deal. Less prep time the last two years. Okay. He's 0 and 4. I. I try to dive into more. It's like, okay, what are they like after these prime time games? Because that's. That is a big deal to me is how these young teams react after prime time games. So sadly, Chad is not good they are just two and seven, last nine games coming off prime time games. And this year, obviously, only because this is the. Ben Johnson, it's only his first year. He lost against the lines. Right. He got smoked in that game. So, you know, it's, it's. How is this young team going to react? That's, that's probably what a lot of professionals are viewing this as. Where it's, you know, it's short week. I mean, even, you know, there's. It's Chicago like they're, it's so much better. They've come in off two straight road wins because it's going to be good vibes for the most part. I mean, I feel like the only dumb question they've had this week is the whole Troy Aikman, which I'm hoping you've come to my side. Troy Aikman being a dick and kind of being overrated. You've always loved Troy.
- [15:58]
Chad Millman
I actually, I actually. It's funny you say that. I'm on the other side. I feel like he was great in that game. I have no problem with what he said. I always feel like Troy Aikman is great in those games. And the reason I like Troy Aikman, I think he's such a curmudgeon and I think he, like, he gets, he gets testy and sensitive about everything. At one point he was talking about the K balls and it being swapped out because it was raining and getting to work the balls in. And I always think about this and this, this frames a lot of my Troy Aikman feelings. You know, back in the day when I was a cub reporter at Sports Illustrated, I went to what was then Valley Ranch working for Sports Illustrated and was part of a two person team. It was me and a guy, Rick Tellender, who is a senior writer at Sports Illustrated. We spent an entire week with the Cowboys and we had full access. Like, we were literally everywhere. We were in the room where, like, the pills were broken up into different colors, right? I was with. I was with Bill Bates where the former safety, when he got home to his house and his wife told him that they were having another kid. I think they had three kids at the time. Like, I was at a club with different players. Like, it was a crazy week. But at one point I was in the locker room when Troy Aikman had just gotten a bag of new balls, new footballs, and he had to break them in. And he was. It was some new rule that year about the balls, and he was just so freaking mad about Having to break in the balls and just muttering under his breath. You know, the NFL, they want us to do these things with the balls. It makes it harder to play. Like, I just have that in my head. Like, this dude's just intense and I think he, I, I think he's actually great. I know I'm in the minority here and I'm, I'm fine with what, especially.
- [17:52]
Simon Hunter
As a Bears fan. You were probably the 1% of Bears.
- [17:55]
Chad Millman
Fan actually, by the way. You know what? I don't think the Bears were perfect in that game.
- [17:58]
Simon Hunter
I, I, I like they were, but he was ridiculous. Him holding a grudge against Caleb Williams because he didn't call him to have a phone call before the game.
- [18:06]
Chad Millman
It's just don't care.
- [18:07]
Simon Hunter
Old Boomer energy, don't care.
- [18:09]
Chad Millman
Max level, don't care. Loved it. I know, I know.
- [18:14]
Simon Hunter
There's no one better in football that tells you a team needs to call a timeout when there's less than two minutes left and they get a first down than Troy Aikman. The man thinks he's a genius every time he goes. Yep, they gotta call timeout here, Joe. Okay, Troy, thank you for that. Incredible wizard.
- [18:28]
Chad Millman
I love everything he does. I'm a huge, huge Troy Aikman fan.
- [18:33]
Simon Hunter
This game, I guess, you know, we don't have to take a position on it. I'll probably end up being on Rattler and this Saints team just because it is this Bears defense that is just bad. They're just a bad defense that has major holes. I think they're still 31st against the run. So it's like, I mean, you know, the, the Bears could easily win this game. They are more talented both sides of the ball and obviously have a better coach. But, you know, just looking through the trends, historically, this has been a bad spot. And even with Ben Johnson, you know, he's changed a lot here. We'll see. This would be a huge, huge another thing to show that the culture is different if you can get this young team up after a prime time win. Because it's just hard to do. It's hard not to live for three, four days with that win rather than moving on to the next game. So going to be interesting to see how this Bears team performs.
- [19:24]
Chad Millman
I think it's a terrible spot for the Bears to cover. I like them to win. Their defense is terrible. The Saints can get a pass rush, which is where Caleb has struggled a little bit, not getting sacked. But against the rush, I think he's still horribly inaccurate in intermediate routes. I think he's holding the ball too long. I got a lot of issues with Caleb. I love the Bears, obviously. I love the Bears. I only want good things for the Bears. I only want good things for all Bears fans, including me and my younger son, who I've gifted with the tragedy of Bears fandom. I hate this spot for the Bears and I think it's a statement game because of what you just said. They got to figure out a way to get beyond a really big win, a dramatic win and win a game against a bad team at home. That's it. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard rock bet. Week 7 kicks off with Steelers vs Bengals. Check out these streaks from Hard Rock Bet Stats Hub. You can find odds to bet on all of these streaks right now in the Hard Rock Bet app. Cincinnati has lost nine in a row as underdogs, but receiver T. Higgins has scored a touchdown in six straight home games. If you like stats like those, you can bet with them using live odds right there in Hard Rock Bet Stats Hub. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a $5 bet and if it hits, you get not only your winnings but also an extra $150 in bonus bets. Plus, tonight on Hard Rock Bet, you can get a Thursday night parlay boost for the game. Boost your same game parlay or SGP Max so your bet pays extra winnings. Here's a parlay I like tonight in Cincy, under in the game, under in the second half and Joe Flacco over one and a half interceptions. There's new promos every day, so if you're listening to this later, just open the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week, download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital, LLC and all other states must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play, terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1833 playwise in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809 with it gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. Philadelphia Minnesota. Minnesota is now a one and a half point favorite. Can I tell you a story that's going to feel totally Relevant when I'm done. Yeah, it's going to make you look good. So, you know, I'm working on this book, right? And one of the guys I'm profiling the book, profiling the book, is a professional better, very high stakes professional better like you. He's betting six figures on games and he's got a bunch of very high net worth guys who tail him and they get these free plays on the games and then he gets a percentage of whatever they win. And so I happen to know, completely randomly, one of the guys who tails him. And this guy works in finance and he's betting 20, 25 grand a game on whatever this guy bets, right? And he has told me anytime this guy texts with a bet that he's making, he will stop what he's doing. He will walk out of board meetings, he will walk out of phone calls, he will. Whatever it takes to get the bet down. When this guy says it, before the line moves, he will do it. So, you know, before the season began, I was with this professional better and he happened to send out a text to a bunch of folks that tail him, including this guy. And this guy texted me, he said, I'm on the highway right now and I just pulled over to make a bet based on what this guy just texted me. Here's my point. When someone who knows something says something, you need to stop whatever you're doing and get the best of the number. Simon, on Tuesday's show, you said, take Minnesota plus two and a half. I really hope people were paying attention and I hope they stopped whatever they were doing whenever they heard that to go get the Vikings at two and a half because it's now at one and a half.
- [23:46]
Simon Hunter
It might come back though. I do think, obviously that's the professional side that money's come in. But we talked about the risk with this bet and taking this position was. I didn't know the injury report right. We were doing that on Tuesday. J.J. mcCarthy did practice, which to me, I don't know about you, Chad. I do not. I. I did not make this bet to bet on JJ McCarthy against a Fangs defense. Like, that's not. I'd much rather be Wentz running this offense where. Yeah, I know Wentz is going to throw us a pick, but I also know he's gonna be able to push the ball downfield with much better accuracy than jj. And for the Eagle side, looks like they're gonna get Jalen Carter back. Quinion Mitchell did practice yesterday, limited. So I don't know if he's actually going to play, which to me, that is the factor. Jalen Carter obviously is a big deal. He, he's not. I mean, he's gonna, he can be a non factor. What we've seen this year with the Eagles is the teams just double him because the Eagles have literally four pass rushers on their staff right now. Like we have four DNS and none of them are talented enough to warrant a double team. So you can mitigate Cardi, you cannot mitigate Quinon Mitchell and what he can do for this team that we talk about. Justin Jefferson, if he's going against the Eagles number two or number three, corner, it's over. This, this is a horrible, horrible matchup for this Eagles team. And even diving into some of the numbers with Jalen hurts. Like we talked last week, we talked a little bit about the Giants taking the number at seven and a half and how the trends just love that Giants team in that exact spot. It was the same thing with the trend. Just hated the Eagles in that exact spot. The Eagles are just not a good team for some reason after they have straight up losses, they've been very fortunate. They just don't lose. So you could say, well, these are old stats because they just went whatever it was. Hertz just went 20 and one the last year. But you saw last year, early in the year when they were losing, it took them a couple weeks to get into that groove and start covering spread. So you know Hertz, this is going to be his 22nd game off a straight up loss. He's 10 and 11 the following game, 7 and 14 against the spread. So historically just not good because again, the public still overvalues them. And it's just whenever the Eagles do lose, it seems like in his career it's a skid. It's not, it's not the type of thing where it's like, okay, they win one week, they'll win the next. It's no, it's like three, four weeks of just bad. Like it takes them a lot to get out of this hole. So we said it's. It's gonna be interesting how they use the extended time. I don't think they're gonna fix the offense. I know they're saying all the right things right now. I just think that's a. You know, Hertz is a professional, classy guy. He's never going to throw his bus, his coach under the bus. But A.J. brown, the true truth teller, he's the one who, he's the guy you want to hear from because he's going to kind of give you how it is. And he said what I think is true. He said everything's fine, but we do need to make adjustments, we need to run the ball more. We need to do different things where, you know, if I'm one on one, I should be getting the ball. That's. That's the key here. It's like, is Eagles offense going to show up? Because I, I do think the Vikings right now, offensively, to me, are the better team. They are. You know, you can say they're. It's Carson Wentz. They're not in that much of a rhythm either. They're still better than Eagles on paper statistically in a lot of categories. And they don't have. They haven't played the easiest schedule. The Vikings, they've had a hard schedule as well. And defensively they're getting guys back like Florida is getting guys back this week. So, yeah, I just. It's a get right spot for this Eagles team. I think it's just another bad spot for them and the public's walking into it. So like Chad said, this number's moved. Hopefully you did get the two and a half. I think you can be patient here. I think if Qu Mitchell gets cleared, Jayla Carter gets cleared, hopefully it's Carson Wentz. Still, I think it could get back to two and a half. If it's jj, this could get up to three. Three and a half like this could really move if it's JJ McCarthy getting cleared here. But everything I've seen from Koc, it seems like he wants it to be Wentz in this game. He doesn't want to just throw the rookie at 90%, 80% what he is right now back into this type of game. So I'm hoping KFC goes with Wentz, which I think is a smart move. My model hasn't graded higher and I think he's smart enough to know why would you not want to play? The vet here, who's seen a lot, a lot of stuff, things is going to throw at him rather than JJ McCarthy making it, what, his third start now in the league. It's just not a good, ideal spot for him.
- [27:54]
Chad Millman
I would. Look, it's a tricky game. It's one of those games that we're going to have to really nail down on Sunday when we got a better sense of who's starting and everybody who is expected to play because it is so dependent on quarterback and injury. But that was something a lot of.
- [28:12]
Simon Hunter
Games we love this week. Like, if this if this is a tough week and I just not having a lot of games, I probably would force us winning because I do really like them on the spot. People are going to see I have like just a lot of games I like this week. Surprising. I think there's a lot of really good numbers.
- [28:23]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [28:24]
Simon Hunter
The public just keeps overreacting to what happened last week. Where this, this year has just been sea salt. None of these, these teams margins, the difference is so slim. These are my favorite years I've been into because it's like we just overreact what we saw the week before rather than the whole pitcher. So that's. There's a lot of games this week I like with the lines.
- [28:43]
Chad Millman
This next game I don't want to spend too much time on because I don't think we're going to do anything with it other than to say Carolina at the New York Jets. This line was at two. It's moved to one and a half. Betting the New York jets right now requires amnesia. That's it. We know it's the sharp side. We know it's what everybody wants to play. We know what it looks like from a metrics point of view. We know that Carolina is coming off two dramatic wins, that they've done it with running games against the two worst defenses in the NFL. The jets statistically are not the worst defense in the NFL. Like the pants, like the Cowboys, like the Dolphins. We know the jets are the right side, but it's. It's going to take more than brass balls to bet the Jets. It's going to take forgetting everything we've seen about the jets for the past couple of weeks. I don't know if there's anything more to say about it other than we're taking the Jets. It's not going to be in the contest. We're moving on.
- [29:41]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Who knows? Maybe I'll, maybe I'll convince you Sunday morning. But yeah, I'm starting to really warm up to this jets team in the jets spots because how much I do hate it where it's like, like you said, we're playing the number here. I can't let emotions get involved here. And this is a good, a very good number for a Jets team against a parallel, a Carolina Panthers team that we've all seen it like they just, they haven't won as a favorite in like, what is it, Chad, five years or something? Maybe it's seven years. It's something insane.
- [30:08]
Chad Millman
So, yeah, it's hard to know, but I know it's not. When we were betting them.
- [30:12]
Simon Hunter
No, no, no. We. We definitely took positions on him as favorites and lost along the way, but yeah, that's fair. I. We're gonna make our fans do some gross things this week. I don't know if this has to be one of them, but I'm definitely on the Jets.
- [30:26]
Chad Millman
We are going to make fans do gross things this week and that includes this next game. New England at Tennessee. A buddy texted me the other day and he said this has to be brass balls. You know what? He's right. Our brass balls bet of the week, presented by Hard Rock Bet the Tennessee Titans plus seven.
- [30:54]
Simon Hunter
You know what it takes. It takes brass balls.
- [31:00]
Chad Millman
Talk about not wanting to get to a spot. We did not want to get to this spot.
- [31:04]
Simon Hunter
Again, people that are listening to the show, SOS Sharper Square. This is the sharp side. We know and we know the public side is going to be the Patriots. They're going to be in every teaser. I'm sure people are going to take them. Survivor contest. Just be careful. Like, even though it's not a huge advantage the first game after the coach is fired, I do think these type of scenarios where a coach was so bad and it was so negative and a lot of the stuff they lost felt like it was self inflicted. I do think these type of spots matter. And yeah, it's. It's gross. Like if this was seven and a half, like it's going to be for us most likely in the contest, I would be banging the table. You have to grab it right now because to me at seven, this is right where it should be. Like, this is a good number. Probably getting two free points. And Chad really talked about the. It's. Again, there's always lazy stats, but there are things you should take away from it. Three straight road games for a team that's a lazy stat, but it's profitable to fade. Fading teams that are off three straight road games, let alone they've already won two straight.
- [32:13]
Chad Millman
Covered two straight.
- [32:14]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Off two straight wins. Horrible, horrible spots. So that, that to me is another thing where it's like, okay, we have our favorite dead cat bounce with the new coach. Now you're mixing in just how horrible of a spot this is. If anyone can win it, it is variable. But like you said, I think you said it was like a 30 win rate or something. Horrible. Yeah. So I'm with you, brother. Like, I'm. I'm invested in this Tennessee. I bet a lot into this seven. This plus seven at this point and it's a lot of Safety in this number two. You're getting the seven. There's no excuse. If this was five and a half, maybe I could lie to Chad and talk him out of it and try to get away from it. But at this number, it's insane. It's so inflated. We got to take it. And yeah, versus this type of game will look like an idiot that get on our face Sunday night or our fans who love and trust us. They'll. They'll see. This is why we bet these spots. It's all about the number. Don't even watch if you can't stand this, Tennessee, don't watch it. Because I, I agree it's probably not going to be fun, but it is just so much about the number in the spot here. And I, I love that you brought up how the third straight road game. To me, that's, that's all I needed to hear to really get me behind this Tennessee team.
- [33:19]
Chad Millman
Tennessee Titans plus seven. That is our brass balls bet of the week. Indianapolis at the LA Chargers. That game is now at Chargers minus two. This was going to be. Your assignment says if we didn't go with Minnesota, this one has moved as well, not as aggressively moved from one and a half to two. You were a little surprised that we didn't get feedback from sharp calls on this, but I look at this game right now and I like you, I'm kind of falling in love with the Chargers and they seem to do this to us every single week. And shame on us because when we've been doing it, we've been betting them as short road favorites and not as short home favorites. And I feel like there's just got to be regression with Daniel Jones. That's. At the end of the day, that's what this is about to me is regression for Daniel Jones. It's a five in one team that could just easily be four and three, right. Or four and two. So that's my thought. I'm still with you on the track.
- [34:22]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Pretty interesting. Hard Rock is that too, because most books have moved the -1 and a half. Again, there's one book out there +2 and a half, but that to me will come down. That just, that just means one very, very, very smart professional group must have came in heavy at this one book. But, but to me, it should just be one and a half like this. I don't know why the books are going to move it unless it is professional money because to me it's just going to be all public money on this Colts team. Every bet Everyone I know is going to be on the Colts team. And that's why I'm shocked more pros weren't lining up like we are on this Chargers team. You're getting a team that I'm almost positive they've lost three straight against the spread games. So to me, you're buying very low on a Chargers team. And this. We talk all the time about coaches and spots. This is a horrible spot. This is the type of game that he gets the guys up for. I mean, I'm. I'll look into a mail off some Norris for us on Sunday. I. I am assuming Harbaugh, in his career has never, between college or pro, has ever lost four straight against the spread. Again, this is a guess, but it's like if you look through his record, he's always well above.500 wherever he goes against the spread. So to go on this type of run here is pretty wild. Like, it just shows. Like we said last week, the. We were a part of it. We were still overrating this Chargers team from what they did in the first couple weeks, which happens on football. Right. Teams get banged up. Something that's really exciting me is Joe all was practicing this week.
- [35:48]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [35:48]
Simon Hunter
So that to me is a little sneaky thing that he might be back in this game. And you know, it's. It's really. We talk about the Daniel Jones regression. I mean, what he's done against pressure has been obscene.
- [36:00]
Chad Millman
Obscene. Best in the NFL against the blitz.
- [36:03]
Simon Hunter
It's. And I. That last week, I couldn't believe it was a real number. He went nine for nine last week against pressure, which is just unbelievable. The hot route, connecting nine for nine. The hot read and hot route is just crazy. So I know we both know we're walking into it a little bit here against this Colts team and how good they've been. But like I said, no teams go perfect. No teams go 15. 1. It's just teams lose. Daniel Jones is going to have a bad game. This is a bad matchup. And on the flip side for Herbert, you know, he. I think you'll get confident, especially if Joe Alt's back. His confidence will keep growing and he'll feel more comfortable obviously dropping back and passing. But like I said, horrible spot for this Chargers team. Like, this is the type of game where he wins. Might be ugly. Maybe we'll land on two. We're getting one and a half almost every book right now. Like, that's such a great number. So you don't have to take it here at Hard Rock. That Hard Rock is usually a sharper book like we've seen. They usually get smart money coming in on certain sides. So Hard Rock could easily get up to two and a half. I could see professionals keep taking this charger side. For all of you out there, shop around, find the one and a half. It's. It's out there. I know the juice isn't great. It's usually minus 115, minus 112. But I think it's worth paying in the spot with this line on this Chargers team.
- [37:20]
Chad Millman
I also think the Colts are going to be a public dog this week and so they're gonna be the biggest.
- [37:28]
Simon Hunter
Public dog this week.
- [37:28]
Chad Millman
I mean, any single time we can be fading the public dog, especially this season, I feel like that's the side we want to be in. What's getting interesting to me, Simon, is I feel like we're narrowing down on five that we really, really like. I think there's going to be one game that sort of is on the. On the edge that we'll talk about in a little bit. New York Giants at Denver. I don't. I don't think we need to spend too much time in this. I don't think it's going to make it. I love it. I totally love it. It never got to the six and a half like I was hoping it would. It actually is moving closer to seven half. You can see the Juice and it's heading in that direction. So my, my final statement on the game. I think there's a defense advantage for the defensive advantage for the Broncos. I think it's a home advantage for the Broncos. I think it's a coaching advantage for the Broncos.
- [38:20]
Simon Hunter
I think.
- [38:21]
Chad Millman
I don't think that Cam Scatterboo and Jackson Dart have seen anything close to what the Broncos can do to confuse them, to stop the run, to make it challenging to lock down their outside receivers with pass certain when they don't have Malik neighbors. Massive situational advantage to me. I bet it at 7. I don't have to stand on ceremony about it. I think there's going to be other games we want to put in. It didn't come up in sharp calls. I don't know your strong opinion on this.
- [38:53]
Simon Hunter
Nah, I just haven't talked much about it. I took a position Sunday night on Giants seven and a half and that's, that's honestly, that's it. There's just other games I like more and they're just. I don't trust Bonix. I don't trust Denver. And like you said it's at seven and a half. I could push back against you and be like, oh, you got to take the Giants here, but I'm not dug in on this game at all.
- [39:11]
Chad Millman
Washington at Dallas. This one's moving. It was two. It's now one and a half. A lot of negativity around the commanders right now. I think that game against the Bears, it seemed like they were going to win it. It seemed like the Bears were giving it away. It seemed like Jaden Daniels was moving well enough to slip by literally defenders in the backfield against the Bears. And then he converted some really nice plays on third and long against horrific, horrific play calls from Dennis Allen. But people don't like this defense. They don't think Jaden Daniels looks as good as he did last year. He's been injured and people just love Dak. So the question is, this Cowboys defense is so unbettable right now. Are we willing to take a shot with the Dallas Cowboys as home underdogs because we love Dak more than we hate their defense?
- [40:10]
Simon Hunter
I can issue the trends because I honestly, I. I liked the commander shot. Thought this was going to be a good commander spot because I just think they're, like we said, I think they're a better team than Cowboys. Cowboys just have a ton of injuries and Dak is the only thing you can really wrap your head around of a reason to back this Cowboys team. And the numbers back it up. I mean, I talked earlier in the week, I think a position on the under here and I joke. I. There's no way there's ever been a total this high in this match between these two teams. I was wrong. So the last time they were 54. The spread total was 54 or above was 1980 in this matchup. So it did happen. It was just 45 years ago.
- [40:49]
Chad Millman
45 years ago, yeah. Yeah, I'm pretty sure. I'm pretty sure I watched that game. It was like, you know, Danny White and Drew Pearson against, against Joe Theisman and the Smurfs.
- [41:00]
Simon Hunter
I couldn't believe that it's happened before because it's like, man, that's. It's just such a huge total for a divisional game and just so many things go wrong. So yeah, that's that shock. That stats shocked me. Let's run through all the Cowboys stats because I, I just, I was trying to find why is there so much love by the pros for this Cowboys team. It's got to be the historical data. So let's go through it. Their last eight games against the Commanders, they're seven to one against the spread. This, this, this, this Dallas team, that's four straight covers at home. So okay, it's a team that they have match up well against again. You can even go back to the Kirk Cousins years. Even he struggled with Washington against this Dallas team. So all right, let's dive into Dak then because it must be a Dak thing. Dak 10 and 3 against Washington and against the spread in his career. That's the best quarterback the last 20 years against Washington. He is 6, 0 straight up in his career. 5 and 1 against the spread against Washington. So I get it. Maybe I won't force us to take this Washington just because there's certain, there's certain teams and just in your division you have the number of, I mean ask tons of fans about certain quarterbacks in their divisions. It's just like, like the Roethlisberger thing against the Cleveland. It was stupid, but I made a life changing amount of money betting Roethlisberger's moneyline against the Browns. Every time they played. He just, I, I feel I can't remember if he ever lost. The only time I could think of is that playoff game with Baker. So it's like there's certain guys are just auto plays against certain teams. I guess the stats are telling me that with this Dak team, but it's like dude, Dax, defense. This is the worst defense he's ever had in that career. But once again it's the reason this is scaring me off because I went through a lot of those games. It really was Dakota leading his team end a game in a couple of those to get the win and get the COVID So even when they didn't have great defenses in the last couple years of Dak's career, they, he still played up and played well against them. So I don't have to deal with it. I wanted to be on Washington. I can afford to be patient here. If you want Dallas, I'd grab the two and a half. I could see it. Like we said, it's already one and a half year at Hard Rock. You better go grab the two and a half because I think the pros are going to keep betting it. I'll be patient, I'll grab Washington. I, I just like this matchup, especially if Terry McLaren comes back. Think of him and Debo. This is a great get right spot. And then you add in the fact that any team want, that wants to run the ball against his Cowboys team can. And that's such a huge Deal, especially for a guy like Jane Daniels, that you've seen it. Like Chad said, he's looked different this year when he's in a guy and he's third and 10 rather than when he's third and five. So this is just a good matchup for what's Washington team. And it's just interesting. The pros are coming in so heavy on Dallas. I just. I can't believe it. I thought this was going to be all Washington, public and pros. But yeah, it's split. It's. It looks like it's going to be the public on Washington. The pros are on Dallas.
- [44:01]
Chad Millman
I think all those trends are because Dak was on a better team than the Commanders for the. Almost the entire time he's played.
- [44:07]
Simon Hunter
Those cartoons are good.
- [44:10]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [44:10]
Simon Hunter
That's fair, though. That is fair.
- [44:12]
Chad Millman
You know, I mean, that's normally the case. Like, it's Aaron Rodgers against the Bears, it's Rothsberger against the Browns. Like, you know, that's. That's usually how it goes. I'm agnostic on this game. Don't have a strong opinion one way or the other. Let's talk about Atlanta at San Francisco because the wise guys coming in on.
- [44:29]
Simon Hunter
San Francisco, if you're going to sand Francisco.
- [44:38]
Chad Millman
The other day when we were on the show, you completely talked yourself into the Falcons as we were discussing the game. I'm. I'm still hesitant because of Brock Purdon. He practiced on Wednesday. George Kittle practiced, by the way. We don't know what the status is going to be. We don't know if they're going to be playing. But to me, I really don't want to bet into a game where I still don't know who the starting quarterback is going to be for the team that I think might have a slight advantage if he's playing. So I don't want to bet in Atlanta.
- [45:12]
Simon Hunter
All right, that's fair. I just.
- [45:14]
Chad Millman
You love Atlanta.
- [45:16]
Simon Hunter
I don't know if I love them, but I do love. I love the number. And obviously it's moved Here at Hard Rock, they're down to plus two. Yeah, two and a half. Like I talk about all the time. It sounds stupid, but I do think it's such a key number. At that number, I was like feeling much better about the Falcons in the sense that this game should be a pick. Like no Fred Warner. I can't describe you how big of a deal it is. Especially like, again, I hate the whole film culture. I watch film. No one else does. But if anyone that does Watch film. It's noticeable how important he is to that team. He is the general. He. He literally lines guys up. I felt like 50, 50% of their snaps. He's lining up their defenders, telling them exactly where they need to be. Because it's a young defense. We talk coming in the year. It's like Salah has got to do a miracle job here because it's such a young defense. They lost Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, two guys they literally could not lose. I mean, just since 2019. No Nick Bosa, they're 7 and 14 against this. Straight up, 7 and 14 without Nick Bosa. Now riding in Fred Warner. I can't get over how big of a deal it is.
- [46:24]
Chad Millman
And we don't even know how bad they are without Fred Warner because he's never missed games.
- [46:28]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, Never. Never. And it's like I just can't get over the impact that maybe they get away with it here. But I think we're both in agreeance. Our future bets, our positions on the 49ers. It's. It's dead. You're just. To win a Super bowl, you need at least one absolute, no doubt leader on that defense to be there. And this is a team that could not afford it. And now he is gone. And Fred. And you know, it's. It's interesting when you think about this spot for this Falcons team, which, again, it's all different because it's. These are different quarterbacks, different pieces. But historically, this is not a good spot for the Falcons. Right. They just had a huge win against the Bills at home. A team above.500.
- [47:10]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [47:10]
Simon Hunter
Since 2018 games following that, when they play another team above.500, they're 11 and 22 against the spread. Historically, this Falcons team. So I get it. Historically, not a great spot. Maybe I'm the sucker on the Joe Public here, but the line movement agrees with me. Like the two and a half are disappearing. There's twos out there. There's one and a half's out there now. So I can't be totally Joe Public here taking this position on the Falcons. So I like it. Like Chad said, I'm. I'm. I'm betting it for a lot of the wrong reasons. That's why I'm not super confident about it. But at least I do have a good model number on. I do make this game a pick. I am getting two points of value on Atlanta right now, so I'll take that position. But I just don't think the books have reacted enough to how big of a deal Fred Warner is. And yeah, great. Brock Purdy coming back, Kittle coming back. Obviously that's a huge deal. Big upgrade to their offense. But I don't know. Totals 47. Maybe I'll take the over as well. It's like I just don't know if they have adjusted enough to them losing their field general in this spot.
- [48:07]
Chad Millman
Well, look, you. The one thing you mentioned, which I just keep forgetting and I don't know why, is Fred Warner. So that does change the calculus for me a little bit in that. Oh, wait a second. This defense, I know they'll fix things. I know Salo's a great coach and I got a lot of faith in him, but this defense was really out of sorts after Fred Warner went out. From a communication point of view, can they fix that? I completely disagree with you. The absence of Fred Warner is a huge, huge challenge for the Niners to overcome. So maybe on Sunday we have a different conversation.
- [48:40]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's all about the number.
- [48:41]
Chad Millman
You know, we'll see what happens on Sunday. Two games that we're not. I don't think we're going to be able to. To avoid the primetime games. First up, we've got Detroit as a five and a half point favorite at home against Tampa Bay. Open to five and a half. Got bet down to four and a half. We loved it on Tuesday when it was four and a half. We both bet into it at four and a half. It's now at five and a half. Kind of a dead number.
- [49:14]
Simon Hunter
I'd still bet number, though. You want to get it before it gets to six?
- [49:17]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Oh, yeah. You want to get it before it gets to six. I mean, between four and a half and five and a half. I still like it at five and a half. It's just, I'm not going to walk away from Dan Campbell and Jared Goff in a dome with their offense basically healthy in a get right spot in prime time. They cover like 70%. You know, I'm, I'm not even exaggerating. I'm rounding up a little bit, but they just do like this is a smash cover spot for the Detroit Lions. And I know it pains us to bet against Baker, who's been so good to us, but. Lions, Lions, Lions.
- [50:00]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And I talked about like Baker, I normally would not be betting this spot because he's just been so good to me as a dog and, you know, shout out to our guy. Evan Abrams had just an amazing stat. Baker, 16, 16 and 8 against the spread as an underdog covering by 5.6 points per game. And you know, that's. That's a real thing with him, with the Bucks. Like, he's. Since he's been the Bucks, the dog, he's been incredibly profitable. Now let's talk the other side, the. The side we're betting and why this is such a good spot for Goff and Campbell. So after a straight up loss. Jared Goff, Campbell, 20 and eight against the spread after a straight up loss. And even better, they've won and covered 11 straight since 2022. Yeah, they're a juggernaut in this spot.
- [50:51]
Chad Millman
They are magical in this spot. Dan Campbell, in so many ways, I don't think it can be overstated. Everyone clearly sees he's a great coach, but the way he is coaching this team and the predictability with which they come back and don't get too far down when they lose games the way they lost against Kansas City the other night. This is not a team that go. That takes it, that goes into the dumps. Do you know what I mean? Like, psychologically bounce back. They are like. They are strong. Yeah. Sorry to interrupt. I'm just so enthusiastic.
- [51:27]
Simon Hunter
And I had a ton of pros reach out last week about why they love Detroit so much was because it was a night prime time game. And I remember I went through the numbers and I was like, is it really that big of a deal? It's insane how good Campbell and golf are in these nighttime games, which I didn't realize last week when we bet into it again. Wouldn't change my bet, but I just like these stats. I find it interesting as a favorite in night games. Golf, 19 and 3. Yeah, that's 9, 0. Well, I guess 9 and 1 or 9 0. Yeah. As a favorite with the lines. ATS wise. Golf, 25, 10 1. Against the spreads, 71. Since he's been with the lines, covering by more than 9,5 points per game. It's all there, people. It was scary. Not gonna lie last week, betting against that Lions team. It's the same feeling we have this week. It doesn't feel good going against Baker here. Trust the number, trust the spot. This does feel like a touchdown game, so I do want people to grab it. Now, like you said, at five and a half, it's kind of a dead number. If you're betting the dog as a favorite, it's a key number. You want to get this while you still can. So I love that we were able to give out the four and a half. Kind of wish I made Simon says. And I had the balls to do it, but I thought professional money was going to bet this down. I really did. I thought professional public will come in on Tampa. It's totally the other way. It's like 80 of the bets, 80% of the money is all on Detroit side. So I don't think it's going to come down, people. I just don't even. All the money's coming. It's still going up. So I just want you guys to get it before it gets a six in that key number.
- [52:53]
Chad Millman
Detroit. Yeah, we're not going to be able to avoid that one. I don't know how I'm going to get any sleep over the weekend. Last game on the board, Houston. I loved it the other day. A plus three and a half. I nearly made it. Chad's choice. They're visiting Seattle late night, Monday night doubleheader. I'm totally opposed to it. I could go Troy Aikman crazy on this idea. But I like. Until this morning I was surprised and concerned that it did not move from three and a half. It has down to three. And then this morning it did.
- [53:27]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [53:28]
Chad Millman
And so that was kind of the validation. You know, I need validation. I need, I need validation and positive feedback all the time in every way. And moving that, that moving from three and a half to three was the valid on a Thursday morning. So I feel great. I feel great. I love it. Let's bet it. It's already bet for me at three and a half. We're going to put in the contest. Someone's going to watch this game. Not going to be me. I wake up Tuesday morning and be surprised.
- [53:56]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And I love, love this matchup for this Houston defense. You know, they have a number one shutdown corner. Hopefully no one's been able to do it. You can, you can shut down JSN and that, that to me would be a big deal to see how Sam Darnold does without his safety, Val. Because every time they need a third down, he just goes to him. And it's, it's working like Jackson the jigba top two, top three receiver in football right now he's just playing out of his mind and Sam Darnold is feeding him. So we got the right matchup. We have a shutdown corner in this matchup. We have a D line in Houston that can get pressure, which we know Sam Darnold does not like. With four. Right. They don't need to rush five. They can. And the trends like the trends here are just incredible. Where I know people have Talked a little bit more about it, the general public. But the McDonald on the road thing is real. This guy and his teams are different teams on the road. We're at home in his career, he's 4 and 8 straight up, 3, 9 against the spread. Again, short, small sample. Well, this is getting into year two now and these things are holding true. So I like it a lot for the Texans. And then we add in the fact that, you know, they, they had a bye week and when you're having these early bye weeks in the year, it is such a big deal. And you can see with certain teams they do have their legs back and when you look at these numbers on the data and it's like, okay, let's look at teams that, you know, they played a prime time game, right? Their last game was a prime time game and they had a bye week and now they're coming back after 15 days. Is that too much rest? So teams with a total of 15 days off and then they're on the road since 2003, 2011 against the spread in this exact spot. So they get up for it. There's no dragging their feet. Right. It's not like they're at home, you know, going through the motions. They're on the road in a tense environment. They're historically these teams get ready to play in these spots. So like Chad said, it's, it's really about the number three and a half. Such a great number here for this Houston team, this defense against a Seattle team that isn't very talented. They're warranted that number but it's a little inflated, feels a little overpriced. And the fact that there's a rest disparity here, the fact that, you know, Seattle is just a different team now at home. It's like all of us, we're still living the beast quake era, right? We just remember that Seattle, New Orleans.
- [56:22]
Chad Millman
Yeah, yeah.
- [56:22]
Simon Hunter
That, that different home field advantage. It has not been true over the last couple years. That's not been the case these last couple years. So three and a half key number. Chad said we might be on two Monday night games in our contest.
- [56:35]
Chad Millman
I don't know. We're going to talk about on Sunday night.
- [56:38]
Simon Hunter
We'll be fired up. Hopefully we're not send their own three dying to go 20 on Monday night.
- [56:43]
Chad Millman
Well, you might miss the show because you're getting a haircut if that's the case. Simon. Simon. I'm going to recap everything that we're thinking about for Sunday morning in a second but first, give me your biggest bets right now.
- [56:55]
Simon Hunter
Pull up those pants and be a man. I've taken a pretty large position here on this Houston game, Detroit game, Chargers, Vikings, Tennessee. I'm probably going to get there. I don't know about Atlanta yet, but I'm like, the more I talk about, the more I start to love it. So, yeah, as you see right now, like, my biggest positions. If you can get the Houston three and a half, join me lines. As long as you're getting under six, that's going to be one of my bigger positions and, you know, we'll see about this Tennessee line. Like, I have a lot on the sevens. If it gets six and a half, I won't be putting that much into it. If it's. If it's all six and a half across the board come Sunday, it won't be one of my bigger bets. We sit here right now. I've taken a pretty large position on this Tennessee team at plus seven.
- [57:37]
Chad Millman
I love that. It's one of the rare weeks where I think you and I are completely in lockstep. Like, there might not need to be any convincing when it gets to Sunday. We'll. We'll see. I think there might be one game that requires a little bit of convincing. My dog likes your dog. Your dog likes my dog. Our moneyline round robin underdog parlay. This is who I put in. Vikings, Titans, Jets, Falcons, and Texans.
- [58:17]
Simon Hunter
Let's take out Tennessee and put in Dallas. That's asking a lot to get that win with Tennessee.
- [58:25]
Chad Millman
My on deck was the Cowboys, so the Cowboys, the Colts, and the Jags. So I'm happy to take out.
- [58:32]
Simon Hunter
And again, we hit last week. Finally, the dogs came through and we hit last week.
- [58:36]
Chad Millman
That's right.
- [58:37]
Simon Hunter
Thank you, Chicago.
- [58:38]
Chad Millman
I was having a hard time with the favorites parlay. To be honest, I couldn't figure out who I wanted to put in there. Who do you think?
- [58:44]
Simon Hunter
Well, first, I want to let the record show you did miss. I did give out the Rams last week.
- [58:48]
Chad Millman
Oh, did I? Did I missed that?
- [58:50]
Simon Hunter
Okay.
- [58:50]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [58:51]
Simon Hunter
Which is again, as long as the fans bet it and made some money off it, that's all I honestly care about because I'm betting this stuff, too. And it's like I. I couldn't believe I bet it and then didn't give another show. It's like, how did I. How did I miss that one? Yeah, it's. It's an interesting week for favorites. You know, I'm not gonna put the chiefs in at minus 850, but if you want to do the same thing I did with Green Bay, take them down to minus five and a half. I'd be willing to put that in if people hear this in time. If you want to get Pittsburgh in there, minus 270, even though it's like a trap spot, very stinky, it's still worth the value to me getting them in there. But let's get the actual ones we're going to put in. So give me the Bears -225. I know it's not ideally the best spot, but still, Spencer Rattler on the road guys only won one one game in his career. We got to take the Bears in that spot, especially at minus 225. Patriots, they're minus 345. I'm not crazy about that one. It feels like that's. That's been bet up. I mean it's. It's literally getting 9% of the money in the bets right now. So that is. That is pretty crazy. But. And we don't. We only have so many options, so we have to put that one in. Yeah, give me the chargers minus 130. Really like that spot for this Chargers team that help us eat up some of these big chalk favorites we're taking. Which again, Green Bay. We can put them in there. They're minus 345. I know you love Denver. I'm on board with it. They're minus 360. And the last one we have to get in there, Detroit minus. Wow. Minus 250 right now.
- [60:23]
Chad Millman
So that's six.
- [60:25]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Yeah. Because I want to put. I want to put them in in case people miss between the. If you don't want to put the Steelers in, you don't put the Chiefs adjusted line in. I want to give out plenty of options.
- [60:34]
Chad Millman
That's six after those two. Green Bay, Bears, Patriots, Chargers, Detroit and Denver.
- [60:41]
Simon Hunter
I like it. Again, I did six last week. I'll do six again this week. All right, just we've been talking about it. It's been really good for the favorites. Last week we got some really good outdoor outright dog wins, but still favorites this year. It's overwhelming how much they're winning outright.
- [60:58]
Chad Millman
All right, so the underdog parlay. Vikings, Cowboys, Jets, Falcons, Texans, the favorite parlay. We're going big. If you can get the Chiefs minus five and a half and you can get the Steelers tonight, Thursday Night Football. Grab it. Otherwise, the packers, the Bears, the Broncos, the Chargers, the Patriots, the Lions. I mean, we're out of Survivor, but if we were playing, I would Say the Chiefs.
- [61:35]
Simon Hunter
I don't hate it. I, I still have a couple left. I might put Chiefs in one of them. I, I'm not. Like Chad said, this is probably a tougher week, so that's probably the safest option to take. I do have two of them that, like, I, I need to use. I already, you know, I want to save the Chief, so I'm taking the Patriots, but I'm with Chad. Safest one this week for Survivor. Feels like the Chiefs, sharp versus square.
- [62:02]
Chad Millman
We both won last week. I had the Panthers, you had the Chiefs. I defer to you. Good friend.
- [62:16]
Simon Hunter
God, this is a tough one. I guess I gotta do it. Gotta. Gotta take the lines. Give me the lines. Minus five and a half.
- [62:25]
Chad Millman
God. You know what? That's fine. That's fine.
- [62:28]
Simon Hunter
I almost did the Chargers, but I'm.
- [62:30]
Chad Millman
Surprised you didn't do the Chargers.
- [62:31]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I just feel more confident about. Feel safer about those golf stats. He's just the money maker in these spots.
- [62:36]
Chad Millman
I'm taking Houston. I'll take the plus three. For me, it came down to Houston, the Chargers, and the Lions. So since you took the Lions, I don't love, I don't love the Chargers, you know, too much. So I'm taking Houston at plus three. The games that I think we're going to have a conversation about Cleveland minus two and a half. Tennessee plus seven. Detroit minus five and a half. Houston plus three. Three and a half, if we can get it. And the Chargers minus one and a half. I think we're going to want to see what's happening on Sunday with Minnesota. I think we're going to want to see what's happening with Atlanta and the Niners, and I think we're going to want to see what's happening with the Saints. I think they'll still. I think they're still going to be in the conversation, to be honest.
- [63:27]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, no, we. Again, it's. It's always scary. Like last week, I, you know, we. We had a tough get into the five this week. It feels like we have like two or three rounds of kick to the curb come Sunday.
- [63:37]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Yeah. All right. This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume Podcast Network. We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube on Sunday morning. You're going to get to eavesdrop on an intimate conversation between me and my bff and we're. We're going to make utterly human decisions and be miserable the rest of the day. We will be back On Sharper Square YouTube Sunday night, 7:30pm Eastern, to recap all the misery that will be live Watch or listen on YouTube @Sharpersquare. Like the video? Subscribe to the channel. Also download some Spotify Apple Pods wherever you get your pods. Rate Review Subscribe Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.
- [64:25]
Simon Hunter
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- [64:58]
Chad Millman
Ever go to McNachos on game day.
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Simon Hunter
And realize the cheese is missing or the chips or both.
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Chad Millman
It happens all the time.
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Simon Hunter
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