SHARP NFL Week 7 Bets: Cowboys-Commanders, Colts-Chargers, Bucs-Lions, Patriots-Titans, Saints-Bears and more

Sharp or Square – NFL Week 7 Bets: Cowboys-Commanders, Colts-Chargers, Bucs-Lions, Patriots-Titans, Saints-Bears & More

Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: October 16, 2025
Podcast Network: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume

Episode Overview

This episode features betting expert Chad Millman and professional gambler Simon Hunter as they dissect the NFL Week 7 slate, separating "sharp" bets from "square" plays. They discuss line movements, sharp calls from professional bettors, and key picks for contests and survivor pools. The duo breaks down high-profile matchups (Cowboys-Commanders, Colts-Chargers, Bucs-Lions, Patriots-Titans, Saints-Bears, etc.), highlighting both consensus and split decisions among professional bettors and sharing insights, statistics, and personal anecdotes to help listeners sharpen their NFL betting mindset.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Sharp Calls & Market Feedback

[03:34 - 06:52]

Simon provides a “sharp call” update: pros are split this week; some agree with picks, others provide pushback.
Teams Sharps Love: Tennessee, Minnesota, Saints, Raiders, Detroit, Houston.
Controversial Sides: Miami (some pros love, some fade), Rams (pros point to McVay’s international record).
Fade the Public Year: Data suggests fading public NFL sides has been incredibly profitable in 2025.
Professional Quote:

“If you’re paying for anyone’s picks on social media and they have a losing record this NFL season, they are the square of squares.” (Simon, 06:24)

2. Game-by-Game Breakdown

Raiders at Chiefs

[07:33 - 09:50]

Simon likes the Raiders as big divisional dogs, citing historical ATS trends for Mahomes as a big favorite (e.g., 6-12 ATS career as 11+ point favorite).
Not a contest pick, but a “long-term winner” spot.

Dolphins at Browns

[09:50 - 13:06]

Chad chose Browns -2.5; line fluctuation causes concern.
Tua’s off-field comments worry Chad, but Simon views Miami’s locker room drama as positive for Cleveland’s chances.
Quote:

“When those teams are at their lowest, that’s when you get burned a little bit… I’m still on the Browns, but I’m getting a little anxious.” (Chad, 11:00)
“This is what bad teams do...they're worrying about what guys aren't coming to meetings… I still like Cleveland.” (Simon, 11:29)

Saints at Bears

[13:06 - 19:23]

Line moved towards the Saints; Chad suspects a “head fake” by pros to get a better number.
Simon sees it as a tough spot for the Bears (short rest, post-primetime emotional letdown, home disadvantage).
Both agree coaching and experience issues point toward Saints, but not a strong contest play.

Eagles at Vikings

[21:26 - 28:12]

Chad tells an anecdote highlighting the importance of acting fast on sharp advice—Vikings at +2.5 recommended earlier, now at +1.5.
Injury risk (notably J.J. McCarthy and Quinion Mitchell status) could swing line back.
Simon notes historical Eagles’ weakness ATS after losses—trends favor not backing Philly in these situations.

Panthers at Jets

[28:42 - 30:25]

Jets are the “gross” sharp side after Panthers’ two fluky wins.
Both agree the Jets are the right, ugly side, though not likely a contest pick.

Patriots at Titans (Brass Balls Bet of the Week)

[30:25 - 33:19]

Titans +7 is deemed the “brass balls” sharp side.
“Dead cat bounce” spot after a coaching change; fade the public’s Patriots love.
Quote:

“Don’t even watch if you can’t stand this Tennessee, don’t watch it… But it is just so much about the number in the spot here.” (Simon, 33:00)

Colts at Chargers

[33:19 - 37:20]

Chargers -2 is a favorite pick. Chad and Simon believe public is overrating the Colts.
Harbaugh teams historically strong ATS, unlikely to go four straight ATS losses.
“This is a buy-low spot for a Chargers team that’s undervalued.”

Giants at Broncos

[37:27 - 39:11]

Chad likes Broncos for their home, defense, and coaching edge.
Simon took a Giants +7.5 early but isn’t strongly pushing for this game in the contest.

Commanders at Cowboys

[39:11 - 44:11]

Line moving towards Cowboys, but Simon is wary; historical trends heavily favor Dak against Washington.
Quote:

“Their last eight games against the Commanders, they're seven and one against the spread... Dak 10-3 ATS in his career against Washington.” (Simon, 41:00)
Ultimately, both see the matchup as too historically lopsided to back the trend-favorite Commanders.

Falcons at 49ers

[44:29 - 48:40]

Pros split, but Simon likes value at Falcons +2.5, especially with Fred Warner’s injury for SF. Warner’s absence is “massive” for 49ers D.
Historical negative spot for Atlanta, but Simon values the number.

Bucs at Lions (Prime Time)

[48:40 - 52:52]

Both hosts in strong agreement: Lions -5.5 is a favorite and will be in contest entries.
Impressive Campbell/Goff trend:

“After a straight-up loss, Campbell & Goff are 20-8 ATS and have won and covered 11 straight since ‘22.” (Simon, 50:00)
Quote:

“They are magical in this spot... This is a smash cover spot for the Detroit Lions.” (Chad, 50:51)

Texans at Seahawks (Prime Time)

[52:52 - 56:34]

Chad loves Houston (took +3.5), especially after line dips from 3.5 to 3.
Houston’s defensive matchup vs. Darnold and trends on McDonald performing poorly on the road make it a sharp play.
Rest advantage (Texans off a bye) is a key angle.
Simon: “Three and a half, such a great number for this Houston team.”

3. Biggest Bets of the Week

[56:55 - 57:36]

Simon’s largest positions:
- Houston (+3.5 or +3)
- Detroit (-5.5 or still under -6)
- Chargers (-1.5)
- Vikings (+2.5 if available)
- Titans (+7)

Moneyline Round Robin Underdog Parlay

[57:36 - 58:38]

Initial picks: Vikings, Titans, Jets, Falcons, Texans.
Chad swaps Titans for Cowboys at Simon’s suggestion; on-deck teams include Colts and Jags.
Win last week: “Thank you, Chicago.” (Chad, 58:36)

Favorites Parlay

[58:44 - 60:41]

Main picks: Packers, Bears, Patriots, Chargers, Lions, Broncos.
Optional: Chiefs alternate spread, Steelers (if available before Thursday).

Survivor Pick

[60:58 - 61:34]

Chiefs recommended as safest.

Showdown Update

[61:34 - 62:36]

Simon picks Lions -5.5 as his “sharp/square” play.
Chad takes Houston +3.

Notable Quotes & Moments

[06:24] Simon Hunter:

“If you’re paying for anyone’s picks on social media and they have a losing record this NFL season, they are the square of squares.”
[33:00] Simon Hunter (on Titans):

“Don’t even watch if you can’t stand this Tennessee, don’t watch it… it is just so much about the number.”
[50:51] Chad Millman (on Lions):

“They are magical in this spot... This is a smash cover spot for the Detroit Lions.”
[11:29] Simon Hunter (on Miami drama):

“They’re worried about all this other BS, which is like… this is what bad teams do... I still like Cleveland.”
[41:00] Simon Hunter (on Dallas trends):

“Their last eight games against the Commanders, they're seven and one ATS… Dak 10-3 ATS in his career against Washington.”

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Start | |----------------------------------------|------------| | Intro (banter, contest updates) | 00:36 | | Sharp Calls overview | 03:34 | | Raiders at Chiefs | 07:33 | | Dolphins at Browns | 09:50 | | Saints at Bears | 13:06 | | Eagles at Vikings | 21:26 | | Panthers at Jets | 28:42 | | Patriots at Titans (Brass Balls) | 30:25 | | Colts at Chargers | 33:19 | | Giants at Broncos | 37:27 | | Commanders at Cowboys | 39:11 | | Falcons at 49ers | 44:29 | | Bucs at Lions | 48:40 | | Texans at Seahawks | 52:52 | | Simon’s biggest bets | 56:55 | | Underdog/Favorite parlays, Survivor | 57:36 | | Showdown plays (Sharp/Square) | 61:34 | | Wrap-up/Outro | 63:37+ |

Overall Tone & Style

Humorous and conversational: Banter and jokes about hair superstitions, Troy Aikman’s broadcasting quirks, and the agonizing nature of betting bad teams.
Highly detailed: Deep dive into stats, trends, and market analysis.
Blunt and sharp: Direct calls about public narratives, square advice, and the emotional pain of betting as a pro.

Takeaways for Listeners

This week, the lines are tight and there is significant two-way action, with pros split on several teams.
Key sharp bets: Lions (smash spot), Houston (rest/road spot), Chargers (fade public dog Colts), Titans (brass balls bounce), Browns (despite Miami love), and possibly Falcons (if 49ers’ injuries persist).
Stay alert for late-breaking injury news, especially QB status and key defenders like Fred Warner.
Professional trend edges and emotional letdowns are major influences this week.
Fade public darling underdogs and don't be afraid to bet ugly sides if the number is right.

Listen if you want to:

Sharpen your understanding of sharp vs. square NFL sides for Week 7
Hear experienced betting pros break down nuanced positions and market dynamics
Get actionable advice for major contests, parlays, and survivor pools
Enjoy witty, candid football conversation from two deeply seasoned betting minds

Sharp or Square – NFL Week 7 Bets: Cowboys-Commanders, Colts-Chargers, Bucs-Lions, Patriots-Titans, Saints-Bears & More

Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: October 16, 2025
Podcast Network: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Sharp Calls & Market Feedback

[03:34 - 06:52]

Simon provides a “sharp call” update: pros are split this week; some agree with picks, others provide pushback.
Teams Sharps Love: Tennessee, Minnesota, Saints, Raiders, Detroit, Houston.
Controversial Sides: Miami (some pros love, some fade), Rams (pros point to McVay’s international record).
Fade the Public Year: Data suggests fading public NFL sides has been incredibly profitable in 2025.
Professional Quote:

“If you’re paying for anyone’s picks on social media and they have a losing record this NFL season, they are the square of squares.” (Simon, 06:24)

2. Game-by-Game Breakdown

Raiders at Chiefs

[07:33 - 09:50]

Simon likes the Raiders as big divisional dogs, citing historical ATS trends for Mahomes as a big favorite (e.g., 6-12 ATS career as 11+ point favorite).
Not a contest pick, but a “long-term winner” spot.

Dolphins at Browns

[09:50 - 13:06]

Chad chose Browns -2.5; line fluctuation causes concern.
Tua’s off-field comments worry Chad, but Simon views Miami’s locker room drama as positive for Cleveland’s chances.
Quote:

“When those teams are at their lowest, that’s when you get burned a little bit… I’m still on the Browns, but I’m getting a little anxious.” (Chad, 11:00)
“This is what bad teams do...they're worrying about what guys aren't coming to meetings… I still like Cleveland.” (Simon, 11:29)

Saints at Bears

[13:06 - 19:23]

Line moved towards the Saints; Chad suspects a “head fake” by pros to get a better number.
Simon sees it as a tough spot for the Bears (short rest, post-primetime emotional letdown, home disadvantage).
Both agree coaching and experience issues point toward Saints, but not a strong contest play.

Eagles at Vikings

[21:26 - 28:12]

Chad tells an anecdote highlighting the importance of acting fast on sharp advice—Vikings at +2.5 recommended earlier, now at +1.5.
Injury risk (notably J.J. McCarthy and Quinion Mitchell status) could swing line back.
Simon notes historical Eagles’ weakness ATS after losses—trends favor not backing Philly in these situations.

Panthers at Jets

[28:42 - 30:25]

Jets are the “gross” sharp side after Panthers’ two fluky wins.
Both agree the Jets are the right, ugly side, though not likely a contest pick.

Patriots at Titans (Brass Balls Bet of the Week)

[30:25 - 33:19]

Titans +7 is deemed the “brass balls” sharp side.
“Dead cat bounce” spot after a coaching change; fade the public’s Patriots love.
Quote:

“Don’t even watch if you can’t stand this Tennessee, don’t watch it… But it is just so much about the number in the spot here.” (Simon, 33:00)

Colts at Chargers

[33:19 - 37:20]

Chargers -2 is a favorite pick. Chad and Simon believe public is overrating the Colts.
Harbaugh teams historically strong ATS, unlikely to go four straight ATS losses.
“This is a buy-low spot for a Chargers team that’s undervalued.”

Giants at Broncos

[37:27 - 39:11]

Chad likes Broncos for their home, defense, and coaching edge.
Simon took a Giants +7.5 early but isn’t strongly pushing for this game in the contest.

Commanders at Cowboys

[39:11 - 44:11]

Line moving towards Cowboys, but Simon is wary; historical trends heavily favor Dak against Washington.
Quote:

“Their last eight games against the Commanders, they're seven and one against the spread... Dak 10-3 ATS in his career against Washington.” (Simon, 41:00)
Ultimately, both see the matchup as too historically lopsided to back the trend-favorite Commanders.

Falcons at 49ers

[44:29 - 48:40]

Pros split, but Simon likes value at Falcons +2.5, especially with Fred Warner’s injury for SF. Warner’s absence is “massive” for 49ers D.
Historical negative spot for Atlanta, but Simon values the number.

Bucs at Lions (Prime Time)

[48:40 - 52:52]

Both hosts in strong agreement: Lions -5.5 is a favorite and will be in contest entries.
Impressive Campbell/Goff trend:

“After a straight-up loss, Campbell & Goff are 20-8 ATS and have won and covered 11 straight since ‘22.” (Simon, 50:00)
Quote:

“They are magical in this spot... This is a smash cover spot for the Detroit Lions.” (Chad, 50:51)

Texans at Seahawks (Prime Time)

[52:52 - 56:34]

Chad loves Houston (took +3.5), especially after line dips from 3.5 to 3.
Houston’s defensive matchup vs. Darnold and trends on McDonald performing poorly on the road make it a sharp play.
Rest advantage (Texans off a bye) is a key angle.
Simon: “Three and a half, such a great number for this Houston team.”

3. Biggest Bets of the Week

[56:55 - 57:36]

Simon’s largest positions:
- Houston (+3.5 or +3)
- Detroit (-5.5 or still under -6)
- Chargers (-1.5)
- Vikings (+2.5 if available)
- Titans (+7)

Moneyline Round Robin Underdog Parlay

[57:36 - 58:38]

Initial picks: Vikings, Titans, Jets, Falcons, Texans.
Chad swaps Titans for Cowboys at Simon’s suggestion; on-deck teams include Colts and Jags.
Win last week: “Thank you, Chicago.” (Chad, 58:36)

Favorites Parlay

[58:44 - 60:41]

Main picks: Packers, Bears, Patriots, Chargers, Lions, Broncos.
Optional: Chiefs alternate spread, Steelers (if available before Thursday).

Survivor Pick

[60:58 - 61:34]

Chiefs recommended as safest.

Showdown Update

[61:34 - 62:36]

Simon picks Lions -5.5 as his “sharp/square” play.
Chad takes Houston +3.

Notable Quotes & Moments

[06:24] Simon Hunter:

“If you’re paying for anyone’s picks on social media and they have a losing record this NFL season, they are the square of squares.”
[33:00] Simon Hunter (on Titans):

“Don’t even watch if you can’t stand this Tennessee, don’t watch it… it is just so much about the number.”
[50:51] Chad Millman (on Lions):

“They are magical in this spot... This is a smash cover spot for the Detroit Lions.”
[11:29] Simon Hunter (on Miami drama):

“They’re worried about all this other BS, which is like… this is what bad teams do... I still like Cleveland.”
[41:00] Simon Hunter (on Dallas trends):

“Their last eight games against the Commanders, they're seven and one ATS… Dak 10-3 ATS in his career against Washington.”

Timestamps for Key Segments

Overall Tone & Style

Humorous and conversational: Banter and jokes about hair superstitions, Troy Aikman’s broadcasting quirks, and the agonizing nature of betting bad teams.
Highly detailed: Deep dive into stats, trends, and market analysis.
Blunt and sharp: Direct calls about public narratives, square advice, and the emotional pain of betting as a pro.

Takeaways for Listeners

This week, the lines are tight and there is significant two-way action, with pros split on several teams.
Key sharp bets: Lions (smash spot), Houston (rest/road spot), Chargers (fade public dog Colts), Titans (brass balls bounce), Browns (despite Miami love), and possibly Falcons (if 49ers’ injuries persist).
Stay alert for late-breaking injury news, especially QB status and key defenders like Fred Warner.
Professional trend edges and emotional letdowns are major influences this week.
Fade public darling underdogs and don't be afraid to bet ugly sides if the number is right.

Listen if you want to:

Sharpen your understanding of sharp vs. square NFL sides for Week 7
Hear experienced betting pros break down nuanced positions and market dynamics
Get actionable advice for major contests, parlays, and survivor pools
Enjoy witty, candid football conversation from two deeply seasoned betting minds

Powered by Wave AI

Summary

Sharp or Square – NFL Week 7 Bets: Cowboys-Commanders, Colts-Chargers, Bucs-Lions, Patriots-Titans, Saints-Bears & More

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Sharp Calls & Market Feedback

2. Game-by-Game Breakdown

Raiders at Chiefs

Dolphins at Browns

Saints at Bears

Eagles at Vikings

Panthers at Jets

Patriots at Titans (Brass Balls Bet of the Week)

Colts at Chargers

Giants at Broncos

Commanders at Cowboys

Falcons at 49ers

Bucs at Lions (Prime Time)

Texans at Seahawks (Prime Time)

3. Biggest Bets of the Week

Moneyline Round Robin Underdog Parlay

Favorites Parlay

Survivor Pick

Showdown Update

Notable Quotes & Moments

Timestamps for Key Segments

Overall Tone & Style

Takeaways for Listeners

Summary

Sharp or Square – NFL Week 7 Bets: Cowboys-Commanders, Colts-Chargers, Bucs-Lions, Patriots-Titans, Saints-Bears & More

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Sharp Calls & Market Feedback

2. Game-by-Game Breakdown

Raiders at Chiefs

Dolphins at Browns

Saints at Bears

Eagles at Vikings

Panthers at Jets

Patriots at Titans (Brass Balls Bet of the Week)

Colts at Chargers

Giants at Broncos

Commanders at Cowboys

Falcons at 49ers

Bucs at Lions (Prime Time)

Texans at Seahawks (Prime Time)

3. Biggest Bets of the Week

Moneyline Round Robin Underdog Parlay

Favorites Parlay

Survivor Pick

Showdown Update

Notable Quotes & Moments

Timestamps for Key Segments

Overall Tone & Style

Takeaways for Listeners