Sharp or Square – "SHARP NFL Week 8 Bets and NBA Betting Scandal Reaction"
Podcast by iHeartPodcasts and The Volume – October 23, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Episode Overview
This episode is fueled by two main narratives:
- A deep dive into the bombshell NBA betting and poker scandal that broke early the morning of the episode, involving high-profile players and coaches like Chauncey Billups, Damon Jones, and Terry Rozier.
- Sharp-vs-Square betting analysis for NFL Week 8, with a focus on finding value plays amidst a “Buymageddon” week with limited games due to several byes.
Chad Millman, a betting expert, and Simon Hunter, a pro gambler, break down both the scandal’s ramifications for legalized sports betting and attack a condensed NFL slate, revealing where smart (sharp) money is targeting. The conversation is candid, energetic, and full of actionable insights for both sharp and square bettors.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. NBA Betting & Poker Scandal Breakdown
Segment starts: [02:44]
-
Breaking News Recap:
- FBI and U.S. Attorney's Office announced major indictments involving NBA figures and mafia connections:
- Chauncey Billups and Damon Jones are charged in an illegal, rigged poker ring, where they acted as "face cards" drawing in wealthy marks.
- Terry Rozier is indicted in a parallel sports betting scheme involving inside player prop information; this is an ongoing lineage from the Jontay Porter scandal.
- “This is front page news...these are huge names we all know. I mean, Chauncey Billups, he’s one of my favorite players ever.” – Simon [05:54]
- FBI and U.S. Attorney's Office announced major indictments involving NBA figures and mafia connections:
-
Details of the Scandal:
- Sophisticated cheating: X-ray poker tables, clandestine glasses/contact lenses, hidden mini-cameras, and marked cards were used to tip off select players ([08:05]).
- The merging worlds of high-stakes poker and prop-driven sports betting are highlighted as new vulnerabilities in the legalized betting era.
- The scandal’s exposure is directly tied to the transparency of legal betting markets:
- “People think it’s bad the legalization of gambling. This is why it’s good...before, this would be handled off the radar.” – Simon [07:34]
-
Implications for Sports, Gambling, and Society:
- Legalization is credited for uncovering these issues due to better monitoring and compliance standards, not for causing them.
- Player props are identified as uniquely problematic for NBA integrity, because single-player performance is easier to manipulate and monitor than team results.
“The props change everything...it’s just about your individual performance. Even then, it’s not about always doing badly. It’s about just doing badly enough to make it look like it’s not suspicious.” – Simon [16:12] - The NBA, compared to other leagues, is perceived as under especially close scrutiny due to recent repeat scandals.
Notable Quotes
- “If someone said, ‘You want to come to this poker game? You can meet Chauncey Billups’—I’m a sucker. I would have been there.” – Simon [11:10]
- “I don’t believe legalization is the cause of these issues. Legalization is part of why we are learning more and more about these issues.” – Simon [12:54]
- “The greatest fear in all sports media right now is you do not want to know if Pablo Torre is looking into you.” – Chad [11:51]
Timestamps
- Scandal outline: [02:44]–[08:05]
- Technology & poker cheating: [08:05]–[10:12]
- Legalization discussion: [12:46]–[14:26]
- Integrity of player props & NBA reputation: [14:40]–[19:11]
2. NFL Week 8: Sharp vs Square Picks & Market Moves
Segment starts: [26:01]
Market Landscape and General Strategy
- This week is characterized as “Buymageddon”—limited games, narrow lines, and lots of pro-vs-public betting splits.
- “This may be the strangest week for betting so far this NFL season.” – Simon [26:01]
Sharp Calls – Where the Pros Are Betting
Timestamps: [27:32]–[31:07]
- Big early-money teams include:
- Bills (ML and spread value after professional fade on Panthers/Andy Dalton),
- Bears (pros remain high despite a tough schedule),
- Texans over the 49ers (classic bad spot for SF),
- Jets, Giants, Saints (home/road/dog value),
- Broncos and Steelers (trendy sharp home teams).
Featured Game Breakdowns and Trend Nuggets
A. Baltimore Ravens (-6) vs. Chicago Bears
Timestamps: [31:07]–[36:38]
- Ravens = “Brass Balls Bet of the Week.”
- Substantial injury/QB uncertainty (rumors/Lamar AI video) caused line movement, but pros pounce on the value if Lamar plays.
- Historical trends support Ravens rebounding out of a bye; Bears' hot ATS streak seen as potentially peaking.
- “The brass balls part here is betting on the fact that Lamar is going to be playing...I think they’ll fix some of the issues on defense.” – Simon [34:35]
B. Giants (+7.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Timestamps: [36:38]–[39:54]
- Divisional matchup; pros like Giants getting points, especially at the “hook” (over a touchdown).
- Eagles’ inability to play two solid halves, injuries, and inflated public perception favor Giants as a sharp side.
C. Buffalo Bills at Carolina Panthers (+7.5)
Timestamps: [40:22]–[43:48]
- Trend: Home dogs (crossing +7) highly profitable early in season (40–11 ATS in the first 9 games).
- Main pro hesitancy: Andy Dalton is “done” and underwhelming ATS as backup-turned-starter. Bill’s defense returning key pieces.
D. Houston Texans (-1) vs. San Francisco 49ers
Timestamps: [43:48]–[47:29]
- Public will see 2–4 Houston vs 5–2 Niners as an “obvious” pick for SF, but pros love fading Shanahan after straight-up wins (1–13 ATS since Dec 2023).
- Niners’ injuries and Houston’s defensive profile create prime spot for the home dog.
E. NY Jets (+6.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Timestamps: [47:40]–[49:14]
- Another ugly dog that trends as a long-term winner: 0–4 teams on the road typically cover, as do teams facing weak defenses.
- “If you want to know the grossest bet that is a long-term winner, bet the Jets.” – Chad [48:30]
F. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5 now, line dropped from -5.5) Timestamps: [49:14]–[53:24]
- Wiseguys heavy on Saints, but with major caution due to home/road splits, injuries, and the volatility of Saints/Baker Mayfield as a divisional fave.
- “Don’t force this one in. Like Chad’s saying, this Saints team, no one is going to feel good about betting them.” – Simon [51:58]
G. Additional Sharp Opinions (Rapid-fire)
- Patriots at Browns: Trend against teams on 4+ game ATS win streaks (14–26–1 ATS, 1–14 since 2022 for non-playoff teams).
- Dallas at Denver (-3): Pros lean Denver, questioning Bo Nix as a fave but love the pass rush against Dak Prescott ([61:25]).
- Green Bay at Pittsburgh (+3): “Rah rah Tomlin spot,” Steelers as home dog with dominant bounce-back trends.
Notable Data-Driven Nuggets / Quotes
- “Since 2003, teams that have won 20% or fewer of their games … as favorites against winning teams: 56% ATS.” – Chad [34:54]
- “After allowing 30+ points, Tomlin’s defense is 29–12–1 ATS (71%).” – Chad [65:20]
- “Shanahan’s teams are 1–13 ATS after wins since late 2023.” – Simon [44:36]
3. Weekly Parlay & Contest Picks
Timestamps: [70:29]–[74:31]
Underdog Parlay
- Steelers, Jets, Saints, Giants (possible add: Bears if Lamar Jackson is out)
- “If I was him, I’d start the other backup. Cooper Rush is doing zero for their offense.” – Simon [71:27]
Favorite Parlay
- Patriots, Bills, Chiefs (alt lines down), Colts (alt lines down), Denver
Contest/Survivor Picks
- Chad: Steelers +3.5
- Simon: Jets +6.5 (“It’s crazy, but I’m feeling lucky.” [74:22])
- Survivor recommendation: Colts (super safe), Patriots as a secondary option
Most Memorable Moments
- Unique Candor on Scandal: Both hosts grapple with the cognitive dissonance of being pro-gambling advocates while covering an integrity crisis, addressing anxieties and the role transparency/legalization plays.
- Real-time Reaction: Simon is fielding “non-stop texts” from insiders as the scandal unfolds ([19:19]).
- Live Odds/Market Shifts: Segment dedicated to sharp calls immerses listeners in the minds of betting professionals.
- Money Management Honesty: Simon openly prefers moneyline parlays on trustworthy favorites (Bills, Patriots, Chiefs) over thinly lined spreads with uncertain QBs.
Tone and Style
- Fast-paced, passionate insider banter—equal parts playful, world-weary, and shrewd.
- Hosts don’t sugarcoat the ugliness of the week: “It’s so ugly. Like, I might have to double up...Don’t double down. Don’t do it.” – Chad [74:10]
- Shtick and self-deprecation (“We’ll be back Sunday night...to recap all that misery.” – Chad [74:31])
Key Takeaways for Non-Listeners
- The NBA is in full-blown crisis mode after a sweeping mafia-poker-player-prop scandal, but the hosts argue this is a symptom exposed by legalization, not caused by it.
- Player props are seen as the primary integrity risk in the modern sports betting era, due to their vulnerability to manipulation.
- NFL Week 8 is a minefield for sharps with so many tight lines and bye weeks, requiring extra selectivity.
- Key games with sharp action include Houston over SF, Ravens if Lamar plays, Giants +7.5, and Steelers as a classic bounce-back at home.
- Stay away from the Saints unless you got a better number early; be wary of big dog lines that tempt but have deep contrarian trends.
- For contest players: Steelers and Jets are the bravest sharp selections, and if you must survivor, the Colts are your safest harbor.
Notable Quotes (with timestamps)
- “The stakes keep getting higher on the gambling scandals since legalization...This is tip of the iceberg.” – Simon [05:54]
- “Props change everything. That’s the real insidious, dangerous part...especially for the NBA. I don’t know how they fix it.” – Simon [16:12]
- “The brass balls part here is betting on the fact that Lamar is going to be playing...a great number for the Ravens.” – Simon [34:35]
- “Of all the leagues—I have the least amount of trust in right now, obviously air hockey...NBA of the major sports. Right now, my eyes are definitely fixed on it.” – Chad [17:16]
- “If you want to know the grossest bet that is a long-term winner, bet the Jets.” – Chad [48:30]
- “After allowing 30+ points, Tomlin’s defenses 29–12–1 against the spread...71%. That’s insane.” – Chad [65:20]
- “Legalization is part of why we are learning more and more about these issues.” – Simon [12:54]
Important Timestamps
| Segment | Timestamp | |------------------------------------------|---------------| | Breaking NBA Betting Scandal | 02:44–19:11 | | Legalization vs. Integrity Discussion | 12:46–19:11 | | NFL Week 8 Sharp Money Rundown | 27:32–36:38 | | Full Game-by-Game NFL Breakdown | 31:07–68:09 | | Parlay & Contest Picks | 70:29–74:31 | | Most Memorable Quotes/Tone | Throughout |
Summary
This episode artfully juggles seismic news in sports corruption and the weekly grind of NFL betting advice, providing both insider scuttlebutt and practical picks for sharps and squares alike. The message: the gambling landscape is changing rapidly, and awareness—and caution—are more important than ever, whether you’re betting props in the NBA or searching for value in Week 8’s NFL slate.