Sharp or Square – NFL Wild Card Weekend Bets

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Episode Release: January 8, 2026
Main Theme:
Chad Millman and Simon Hunter break down their sharp (professional, wiseguy) versus square (public, casual) betting angles for NFL Wild Card Weekend. The episode spotlights which sides and totals are attracting sharp action, why certain lines are moving, and features their contest picks, key trends, and betting psychology.

Episode Overview

The show kicks off with college football playoff talk, then pivots to dissecting every NFL Wild Card matchup. Despite leaning on historical data and sharp feedback, Chad and Simon acknowledge the complexity and nuance of each game, openly wrestling with conflicting trends in search of winning angles.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. College Football Playoff Fever [02:14–10:51]

Chad shares excitement about attending the Indiana vs. Oregon semifinal, lauding Indiana’s rise under coach Kurt Signetti and the storylines transforming the Hoosiers into “America’s team.”
Simon remarks, “Nothing gets people excited like winning. It’s pretty simple.” [03:46]
Inside info: Sharps initially leaned Oregon but some pro groups took Indiana -3.5. Simon is “happy taking the Hoosiers here” if it doesn’t move past 4.5. [05:17]
Chad on Signetti staying: “I feel like we got eight more years of Signetti dominance… he’s been able to keep his assistants… That speaks so much about who Signetti is.” [07:18, 08:17]

2. Wild Card Totals – The Unders Angle [10:51–12:09]

Chad cites a killer sports trend: “All Wild Card games since 2001 have gone under the total 59% of the time. If it’s the first meeting between two teams, the under improves to 76%.” [10:51]
Simon confirms pro interest in Wild Card unders, particularly where unfamiliarity is high.

3. Sharp Calls: Pro Feedback Recap [12:06–13:42]

Games with sharp splits: Jags–Bills and Patriots–Chargers, “very split between the pros.” [12:11]
Games with strong sharp consensus: “Eagles, Pittsburgh, and, you know, I hate to say it, Chad, Green Bay.” [13:13]

Game-by-Game Wild Card Analysis

Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers

Line: Rams -10.5, Total 46.5

Simon initially “a little lukewarm,” worried about historical trends against big road favorites: “Since the 1970 merger, teams that close as a 4+ point favorite on the road in the playoffs are 1–8 ATS. The last cover came in 1971.” [15:25]
Chad pushes counter-trends: teams making playoffs after <=6 wins last year are 21–38 ATS: “We like the other side in every one of those games.”
Simon ultimately sides with the Rams: “I’m with you. It’s -10 at Hard Rock. That’s too good of a number to pass on.” [18:17]
Weather and outdoor conditions noted; strong under interest from pros due to forecast. [17:21]

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

Line: Packers -1.5, Total 45.5

Line flipped from Bears favored to Packers; “wiseguy play” on Green Bay. [20:25]
Chad: “Bears 1–1 against Packers this year, needed miraculous comebacks.” [21:26]
Simon: “I don’t know how many other times in our life we’ll see a 2-seed as a home dog… The line’s telling you something…” [21:33]
LaFleur is the oldest NFC playoff coach at 46, coaching edge noted. Simon regrets Bears’ short rest and injury list: “It’s not great for the Bears.” [24:19]
Both lean under: “Love the under as well… Either Jordan Love or Caleb [Williams] totally doesn’t show; that’s my prediction.” [24:46]

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars

Line: Jags +1, Total 52

Split sharp action, line waffling: “It is very split. They’re not… super dug in on either side.” [31:07]
Chad: “Matt Mitchell… texted the Jags are 0–19 straight up when the total is higher than 49.” [30:31]
Simon: “Organizationally, they failed him [Josh Allen] again… Jags defense is top 10… My confidence at the end of the day comes down to the Jags defense.” [31:52, 34:43]
Notable Stat: Since 2017, underdogs in Wild Card games are 27–15 ATS (64%); “You just blindly bet the dog in this round, it’s going to work out for you.” [33:16]
Contest angle: “If I have to make a pick and it’s +1.5 on the Jags, I’m taking that every time.” [34:59]
Noted: “Jags line… is holding. They’re staying as a home dog here and I really like that for us.” [34:13]

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles

Line: Eagles -4.5, Total 44.5

Key injury: Lane Johnson (PHI) expected to play, line ticked up. [37:45]
Simon: “I just don’t know how the 49ers are going to move the ball… If Lane is back and they find the run game with Saquon [Barkley], Hurts might only need to throw the ball 10 times.” [38:47, 41:42]
Chad: “Sometimes you have to know enough to go against the trend… You don’t win big money by just going with the trends all the time.” [42:05]
Simon: “Not true. I know millionaires who simply bet trends! …We are giving out three favorites at this point, so that’s where I’m coming from.” [42:27]

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots

Line: Patriots +3.5, Total 46.5

Chad: “More than 60% of bets on New England and line hasn’t budged to 4—bookmakers don’t want to move it because every sharp will take the Chargers.” [43:11]
Simon: “We don’t trust Herbert in the playoffs… but with Drake May, I don’t know how he’ll react… We’re getting Herbert as a 3.5-point dog, we have to take that against Drake May…” [43:49, 45:39]
Brass Balls Bet of the Week: Chargers +3.5 [43:06]

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers

Line: Steelers +3.5, now +3, Total 39.5

Chad sets the scene with a wild Steelers-Ravens recap and Tomlin’s job security. [54:38]
Simon on Tomlin home underdog voodoo: “It’s the feels, man. It really is pretty awesome… The renegade music going… professionals will keep betting the Pittsburgh line.” [60:14, 58:11]
Simon’s favorite side: “Pittsburgh, by far my biggest bet. I love it. Not only the trends… but I also love the matchup for them.” [61:57]
Houston’s outdoor struggles highlighted: “Houston does [have splits]… There are big splits between them offensively indoors versus outdoors.” [59:33]
Strong Steelers and under lean, especially with weather forecast.

Playoff Betting Trends and Strategies

Underdogs in the Wild Card round: 64% ATS since 2017 (dogs covering two out of three).
Wild Card games and unders: especially strong when teams are meeting for the first time (76% to the under since 2001).
First playoff start QBs: Betting against them in certain spots is profitable.
Fading hot streaks: Fading teams on 8+ game win streaks (Texans) is historically successful (27–13 ATS).

Notable Quotes

Simon: “I know millionaires who simply bet trends. People, do not listen to Chad when he says you gotta get creative!” [42:27]
Chad: “Fading the Jags—betting against teams who have won 8+ straight games — in the playoffs, it goes up to 68%.” [37:14]
Simon (on Steelers home field magic): “With that fans in that stadium, the renegade music going, it’s just, it’s the feels man. It really is pretty awesome.” [60:14]
Chad (on weather’s effect): “I know pros who are just hammering this under… You’re asking a lot of Bryce Young in his first playoff game…” [17:21]
Simon (on Patriots-Chargers): “Drake May, I don’t know how he’s going to react to the playoffs… I just can’t wait to see how he plays against this defense...” [44:35]

Segment Timestamps

College Football Playoff talk: 02:14–10:51
NFL Wild Card Totals / Unders: 10:51–12:09
Sharp Calls (Pro Betting Feedback): 12:06–13:42
Rams-Panthers breakdown: 15:18–19:53
Packers-Bears breakdown: 20:02–24:47
Bills-Jags breakdown: 29:33–37:41
Niners-Eagles breakdown: 37:45–43:06
Chargers-Patriots breakdown & Brass Balls Bet: 43:06–47:58
Steelers-Texans breakdown: 54:38–63:00
Hosts’ best bets and contest strategy: 61:57–64:31

Hosts’ Best Bets

Simon:

Steelers +3 (biggest bet) [61:57]
Eagles -4.5
Chargers +3.5
Totals: Under in Eagles, Patriots, and Bears games

Chad:

Bears-Packers Under 45.5 [63:47]

Parlay Suggestions

Fade first-time playoff QBs: Chargers, Rams, Packers [63:49]
If focusing favorites: Rams -2.5, Green Bay, Eagles [64:31]
Top dog parlay: Steelers, Chargers [65:26]

Overall Tone

Knowledgeable, candid, and self-deprecating. The hosts routinely reference the “rollercoaster” of betting, celebrating trends but warning listeners about overconfidence and the limits of historical data. They invite the audience into the “sharp vs. square” comparison not as certain experts, but as fellow travelers evaluating the wiseguys’ playbook and the week’s chaos.

For Listeners Who Missed the Show:

If you’re looking for sharp betting analysis with actionable insights—especially which sides and totals have professional money and which trends matter—this episode lays out the critical info for navigating Wild Card Weekend, while not shying away from tough calls and contrarian logic. The dynamic between Chad’s emotional fandom and Simon’s clinical, data-driven approach is both entertaining and illuminating.

Listen to the next episode for Saturday’s final contest picks and game day weather updates!

Sharp or Square – NFL Wild Card Weekend Bets

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. College Football Playoff Fever [02:14–10:51]

Chad shares excitement about attending the Indiana vs. Oregon semifinal, lauding Indiana’s rise under coach Kurt Signetti and the storylines transforming the Hoosiers into “America’s team.”
Simon remarks, “Nothing gets people excited like winning. It’s pretty simple.” [03:46]
Inside info: Sharps initially leaned Oregon but some pro groups took Indiana -3.5. Simon is “happy taking the Hoosiers here” if it doesn’t move past 4.5. [05:17]
Chad on Signetti staying: “I feel like we got eight more years of Signetti dominance… he’s been able to keep his assistants… That speaks so much about who Signetti is.” [07:18, 08:17]

2. Wild Card Totals – The Unders Angle [10:51–12:09]

Chad cites a killer sports trend: “All Wild Card games since 2001 have gone under the total 59% of the time. If it’s the first meeting between two teams, the under improves to 76%.” [10:51]
Simon confirms pro interest in Wild Card unders, particularly where unfamiliarity is high.

3. Sharp Calls: Pro Feedback Recap [12:06–13:42]

Games with sharp splits: Jags–Bills and Patriots–Chargers, “very split between the pros.” [12:11]
Games with strong sharp consensus: “Eagles, Pittsburgh, and, you know, I hate to say it, Chad, Green Bay.” [13:13]

Game-by-Game Wild Card Analysis

Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers

Line: Rams -10.5, Total 46.5

Simon initially “a little lukewarm,” worried about historical trends against big road favorites: “Since the 1970 merger, teams that close as a 4+ point favorite on the road in the playoffs are 1–8 ATS. The last cover came in 1971.” [15:25]
Chad pushes counter-trends: teams making playoffs after <=6 wins last year are 21–38 ATS: “We like the other side in every one of those games.”
Simon ultimately sides with the Rams: “I’m with you. It’s -10 at Hard Rock. That’s too good of a number to pass on.” [18:17]
Weather and outdoor conditions noted; strong under interest from pros due to forecast. [17:21]

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

Line: Packers -1.5, Total 45.5

Line flipped from Bears favored to Packers; “wiseguy play” on Green Bay. [20:25]
Chad: “Bears 1–1 against Packers this year, needed miraculous comebacks.” [21:26]
Simon: “I don’t know how many other times in our life we’ll see a 2-seed as a home dog… The line’s telling you something…” [21:33]
LaFleur is the oldest NFC playoff coach at 46, coaching edge noted. Simon regrets Bears’ short rest and injury list: “It’s not great for the Bears.” [24:19]
Both lean under: “Love the under as well… Either Jordan Love or Caleb [Williams] totally doesn’t show; that’s my prediction.” [24:46]

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars

Line: Jags +1, Total 52

Split sharp action, line waffling: “It is very split. They’re not… super dug in on either side.” [31:07]
Chad: “Matt Mitchell… texted the Jags are 0–19 straight up when the total is higher than 49.” [30:31]
Simon: “Organizationally, they failed him [Josh Allen] again… Jags defense is top 10… My confidence at the end of the day comes down to the Jags defense.” [31:52, 34:43]
Notable Stat: Since 2017, underdogs in Wild Card games are 27–15 ATS (64%); “You just blindly bet the dog in this round, it’s going to work out for you.” [33:16]
Contest angle: “If I have to make a pick and it’s +1.5 on the Jags, I’m taking that every time.” [34:59]
Noted: “Jags line… is holding. They’re staying as a home dog here and I really like that for us.” [34:13]

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles

Line: Eagles -4.5, Total 44.5

Key injury: Lane Johnson (PHI) expected to play, line ticked up. [37:45]
Simon: “I just don’t know how the 49ers are going to move the ball… If Lane is back and they find the run game with Saquon [Barkley], Hurts might only need to throw the ball 10 times.” [38:47, 41:42]
Chad: “Sometimes you have to know enough to go against the trend… You don’t win big money by just going with the trends all the time.” [42:05]
Simon: “Not true. I know millionaires who simply bet trends! …We are giving out three favorites at this point, so that’s where I’m coming from.” [42:27]

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots

Line: Patriots +3.5, Total 46.5

Chad: “More than 60% of bets on New England and line hasn’t budged to 4—bookmakers don’t want to move it because every sharp will take the Chargers.” [43:11]
Simon: “We don’t trust Herbert in the playoffs… but with Drake May, I don’t know how he’ll react… We’re getting Herbert as a 3.5-point dog, we have to take that against Drake May…” [43:49, 45:39]
Brass Balls Bet of the Week: Chargers +3.5 [43:06]

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers

Line: Steelers +3.5, now +3, Total 39.5

Chad sets the scene with a wild Steelers-Ravens recap and Tomlin’s job security. [54:38]
Simon on Tomlin home underdog voodoo: “It’s the feels, man. It really is pretty awesome… The renegade music going… professionals will keep betting the Pittsburgh line.” [60:14, 58:11]
Simon’s favorite side: “Pittsburgh, by far my biggest bet. I love it. Not only the trends… but I also love the matchup for them.” [61:57]
Houston’s outdoor struggles highlighted: “Houston does [have splits]… There are big splits between them offensively indoors versus outdoors.” [59:33]
Strong Steelers and under lean, especially with weather forecast.

Playoff Betting Trends and Strategies

Underdogs in the Wild Card round: 64% ATS since 2017 (dogs covering two out of three).
Wild Card games and unders: especially strong when teams are meeting for the first time (76% to the under since 2001).
First playoff start QBs: Betting against them in certain spots is profitable.
Fading hot streaks: Fading teams on 8+ game win streaks (Texans) is historically successful (27–13 ATS).

Notable Quotes

Simon: “I know millionaires who simply bet trends. People, do not listen to Chad when he says you gotta get creative!” [42:27]
Chad: “Fading the Jags—betting against teams who have won 8+ straight games — in the playoffs, it goes up to 68%.” [37:14]
Simon (on Steelers home field magic): “With that fans in that stadium, the renegade music going, it’s just, it’s the feels man. It really is pretty awesome.” [60:14]
Chad (on weather’s effect): “I know pros who are just hammering this under… You’re asking a lot of Bryce Young in his first playoff game…” [17:21]
Simon (on Patriots-Chargers): “Drake May, I don’t know how he’s going to react to the playoffs… I just can’t wait to see how he plays against this defense...” [44:35]

Segment Timestamps

College Football Playoff talk: 02:14–10:51
NFL Wild Card Totals / Unders: 10:51–12:09
Sharp Calls (Pro Betting Feedback): 12:06–13:42
Rams-Panthers breakdown: 15:18–19:53
Packers-Bears breakdown: 20:02–24:47
Bills-Jags breakdown: 29:33–37:41
Niners-Eagles breakdown: 37:45–43:06
Chargers-Patriots breakdown & Brass Balls Bet: 43:06–47:58
Steelers-Texans breakdown: 54:38–63:00
Hosts’ best bets and contest strategy: 61:57–64:31

Hosts’ Best Bets

Simon:

Steelers +3 (biggest bet) [61:57]
Eagles -4.5
Chargers +3.5
Totals: Under in Eagles, Patriots, and Bears games

Chad:

Bears-Packers Under 45.5 [63:47]

Parlay Suggestions

Fade first-time playoff QBs: Chargers, Rams, Packers [63:49]
If focusing favorites: Rams -2.5, Green Bay, Eagles [64:31]
Top dog parlay: Steelers, Chargers [65:26]

Overall Tone

For Listeners Who Missed the Show:

Listen to the next episode for Saturday’s final contest picks and game day weather updates!

Sharp NFL Wild Card Weekend Bets: Rams-Panthers, Packers-Bears, Bills-Jaguars, Niners-Eagles, Chargers-Patriots, Texans-Steelers

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Summary

Sharp or Square – NFL Wild Card Weekend Bets

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. College Football Playoff Fever [02:14–10:51]

2. Wild Card Totals – The Unders Angle [10:51–12:09]

3. Sharp Calls: Pro Feedback Recap [12:06–13:42]

Game-by-Game Wild Card Analysis

Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers

Playoff Betting Trends and Strategies

Notable Quotes

Segment Timestamps

Hosts’ Best Bets

Parlay Suggestions

Overall Tone

For Listeners Who Missed the Show:

Summary

Sharp or Square – NFL Wild Card Weekend Bets

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. College Football Playoff Fever [02:14–10:51]

2. Wild Card Totals – The Unders Angle [10:51–12:09]

3. Sharp Calls: Pro Feedback Recap [12:06–13:42]

Game-by-Game Wild Card Analysis

Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers

Playoff Betting Trends and Strategies

Notable Quotes

Segment Timestamps

Hosts’ Best Bets

Parlay Suggestions

Overall Tone

For Listeners Who Missed the Show: