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Sharp or Square
Sharp NFL Wild Card Weekend Bets: Rams-Panthers, Packers-Bears, Bills-Jaguars, Niners-Eagles, Chargers-Patriots, Texans-Steelers
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- [00:00]
Sophie Cunningham
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:02]
Simon Hunter
Guaranteed Human Chris Stapleton's All American Roadshow. With special guests. Get tickets Friday, January 16, 10am at livenation.com Chris Stapleton's All American Road.
- [00:35]
Sophie Cunningham
This is Sophie Cunningham and West Wilson.
- [00:37]
West Wilson
From Show Me Something.
- [00:38]
Sophie Cunningham
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West Wilson
When that tender, slow roast beef is warm and juicy, it's like soul therapy. And if you're feeling a little extra like we usually are, go for the.
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Sophie Cunningham
Double dude Double roast beef, double beef and cheddar. Twice the meat, twice the happiness.
- [01:04]
West Wilson
You know what you want? Get an Arby's double roast beef or a double beef and cheddar in store or delivered today.
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Sophie Cunningham
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Simon Hunter
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- [01:43]
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- [02:15]
Chad Millman
Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock that we are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I'm joined as always by my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon.
- [02:40]
Simon Hunter
Chad. We were at the beginning of, I guess you could say the best football week of the year. And it starts tonight with college football. Obviously it's not your team. You're tomorrow night. But how you feeling buddy? 24, 36 hours out. What Are we at.
- [02:52]
Chad Millman
Dude, it's. It's probably the greatest 24 hours of football opportunity in my life. I will fly to Atlanta immediately after the show for the college football playoff semifinal between Oregon and America sweethearts, the Indiana Hoosiers. I. I will tell you, there have been a lot of talk about ratings, and ratings have been great for the college football playoffs. I think Indiana has truly become America's team. Like, people are so captured by the story. The turnaround by Signetti, Matt Mitchell, a regular better of Indiana football and a day one superfan of coach Kurt Signetti. Best of luck to all the Hoosiers, which is everybody right now.
- [03:46]
Simon Hunter
Nothing gets people excited like winning. It's pretty simple.
- [03:50]
Odoo Advertiser
I win.
- [03:52]
Chad Millman
Google me now.
- [03:54]
Odoo Advertiser
It may have pissed a few people.
- [03:55]
Simon Hunter
Off, but so what?
- [03:56]
Odoo Advertiser
This is the entertainment business.
- [03:58]
Simon Hunter
We had to wake some people up and create some excitement. Whatever you knew about Indiana on your past, you gotta raise the table.
- [04:12]
Chad Millman
Matt Mitchell has been texting us constantly in the middle of these Indiana games of like the live bets he's making. I'm gonna be in Atlanta. I can't freaking wait. I'm going with my buddy Matt. This is a guy who we went to college together. We grew up together. I went to every Bears game growing up with him. Like, this is my sports compadre. He is the Simon Hunter of the rest of my life. You know, going to these games and sharing these experiences. Simon, will the wise guys be with us this upcoming Friday night?
- [04:53]
Simon Hunter
I think so right now, buddy. It is. They're. They're very heavy on Oregon. You know the deal. It's hard to beat a team twice in college football. It's just the way it is, right? These, these teams, they adjust. And you know, the Indiana Hoosiers, this run you're on, it's with a bunch of one, two, three star players. I know a lot of them are older, right? You have a lot of like 25, 25 year olds. And that's been the. The cheat code. You guys are just so smart. And Signetti just out coaches his opponents. But as we sit here right now, I have talked to some pros who. They're basically just playing possum. They're lying and waiting, hoping the three would pop. And. And I've seen a couple groups already move on the Indiana minus three and a half. So now it's going up back to four. So like I said, for five days, it was all Oregon from the pros. They were just telling me, like, you got to be on Oregon here. I don't want to be in Oregon. I've always wanted to back you be with Indiana. I've just been winning all them. It's been fun to bet them. They just like I said, they just feel so well coached and yeah, it'll be interesting what what happens tomorrow with the lineman but if you see it keep going up that is professional money coming in here. They like I said they were hoping to get the three. I don't think it's ever going to get there. I think this is too talented of a team. The public is just too heavy on Indiana as well. So interesting if it gets to four and a half at any point maybe then I would take Oregon. But my three and a half. I'm happy taking the Hoosiers here.
- [06:11]
Odoo Advertiser
Relentless tenacity.
- [06:12]
Simon Hunter
Nobody flinched. Yeah, I'm sure you're happy to know I've. I've talked to a bunch of people in the NFL and I mean people have been talking about it now for a couple days. Apparently Signetti is like I don't even care about the NFL. I am a college guy. This is where I want to be. I have zero interest. And then I saw Saban yesterday. I might have been on McAfee show who I've always anything that man says I take very very serious. He just knows these guys and he said honestly he's not spoken Sig Netti about going to the NFL but he said the jump if you've never been there, it's too extreme. Like he had already been sa said he already been in the NFL for six years. That's why he didn't mind coming into the league signal he's never been the NFL. He's a college guy through and through. So I'd be very happy if I'm Indiana Hoosier fan. It just sounds like this guy loves it there and he's not going to leave where I in the back of my mind I was like I would be shocked if he stays. He's just too talented. But it looks like you guys might have struck gold. Chad, one of the best coaches in college football is going to stay now a big time school like you said, big time ratings for a big time school here for the Hoosiers. So I, I guess this is the world we're living in now. It's just bizarre. I can't believe it.
- [07:18]
Chad Millman
I was never worried about Signetti leaving Indiana once he sign the deal to stay and and didn't really get tempted by Penn State in my head he's 60 something years old. I feel like we got eight more years of Signetti dominance. What's so fascinating to me about this team is that he has been able to keep his assistants, offensive coordinator and and defensive coordinator together going back to his days coaching at James Madison and before that, like these guys have been with him for a while. The fact that they stick around is fascinating to me. It also speaks so much about who Signetti is as a coach, the kind of program he runs, the kind of lifestyle he wants his coaches to lead, why people buy into what he's selling. I've bought in. I'm all in. I love this team, I love this school. I can't wait to get there. Go iu.
- [08:17]
Simon Hunter
You signed a new eight year deal. Congratulations on that. You know, some people say, well you're going to be a hot commodity and blah blah, blah. The fact of the matter is we're the emerging superpower in college football. Why would I leave? What's your confident level though? Would you be like you have 80% belief you're going to win in win this game?
- [08:36]
Chad Millman
My confident level is more irrational than Matt Mitchell and the Buffalo Bills this week. And you know how he is feeling. I, I was lacking a ton of confidence before the playoffs began because I really thought we wanted that Ohio State game so badly and winning it would be sort of the, the apex of what we were thinking about. But then I watched Signetti and like it's just not how he thinks. Nothing is going to be good enough. He has decided to will Indiana into a place of prominence and relevance and he knows that's not going to happen unless they win a national title. And the blood of Alabama is amazing. But it also said to me, and we've seen this with college football teams in the past, when they get rolling, it's not like the NFL where it's a little bit more week to week. Like these teams get rolling and they are so freaking good. They are so physical, they are so fast, they are so technically sound, they're so well coached. It's just a joy to watch them. Like they don't give up a yard. You saw that multiple times. So, you know, I think Oregon's got some guys.
- [09:39]
Simon Hunter
You guys don't have these five star players. It's bizarre world but it's amazing. I just will say on the other game because I know people, we've gone this long while talking college football. I do know pros who have come in on Ole Miss. But I would tell you more pros have lined up on Miami. But from my point of view, I, I hate Lane Kiffin, he's everything I hate about football. These guys with these egos treating people like trash just for their own benefit. They're. He's everything that's wrong with society. Honestly, I know it's a bit much for Lane Kiffin, but he's been a piece of ever since he's been in my life. Like the Tennessee stuff from back in the day. Never liked him. Think he's super fake. People buy into it, especially the media. I am dying. I love you, Chad. I hope Indiana wins and it all your dreams are fulfilled. I'm dying for Ole Miss to win it all and just shove it down that man's face. I just. He's disgusting. Like him leaving, being like, I need to go to LSU to win it all. Please, Ole Miss. I know it's not looking good because like I said, the pros are on Miami, but please, Ole Miss, fulfill your destiny. At least make it to the finals and play Indiana.
- [10:41]
Chad Millman
I will tell you, I just don't think the name brand schools mean much anymore when it comes to college football. Great in it every day. Like you get the right coach and enough money and anyone will go.
- [10:51]
Simon Hunter
Right coach or Mark Cuban. You're good.
- [10:53]
Chad Millman
Yeah, it's totally true. All right, let's get to some NFL because we got a lot of a lot of conversations to have. We talked a lot about totals the other day and you were all over the unders. And so our friends at killer sports, they emailed me and they sent some stats to support a lot of what we discussed. All wild card games since 2001 have gone under the total 59 of the time. If it's the first meeting of the season between the two teams, the under improves to 76%. So that's Jackson, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Buffalo, Philadelphia, San Francisco, New England, the Chargers, Pittsburgh, Houston. We're going to dig into the unders for the totals for all of those games. This is our Thursday wild card episode. We will narrow down the options for our final five picks for the contest that is still ongoing. Reminder, subscribe to Sharper Square, YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify, Simon. We did a show on Tuesday, which means over the last 48 hours, you have been getting an earful from your friends in the professional betting community. They got feedback. We want to share it. It's time for sharp calls.
- [12:07]
Simon Hunter
I have to answer this phone.
- [12:09]
Sophie Cunningham
All right.
- [12:12]
Simon Hunter
Ring, ring, telephone ring. Somebody said, baby, what you doing? Yeah, I guess it'll be a rapid fire version because like you said, we're about to really dive into these games here. So I don't want to give too much away. Yeah. The broad strokes, what the pros are at. Or I guess I could. I should start with the games are split Jags. Bill's very split between the pros. I know grow groups on both sides. I would honestly be shocked to see that number move either way if that number touches two on either side. I think you see just a. A lot of money come from professional groups where there it's the Jags plus two and a half or somehow flipped. The bill is getting up to one and a half or plus two and a half. Shockingly. Patriots, Chargers, tons of back and forth between professionals. A very split game as well, where I thought it was just gonna be all Chargers. But I know some guys who really love this Patriots team. Obviously, they've made a lot of money off them betting this year and they do think Drake May is him and this is a great matchup for him. And the defense of the Patriots. Right. We've talked. That's not. They're not the greatest defense, but they're going against the worst offensive line in all football. So that's a. That's a fun game to dive into games. I think I, you know, basically nailed with where the pros are going to be at. Where the Eagles, Pittsburgh, and, you know, I hate to say it, Chad, Green Bay. I always. I thought Green.
- [13:26]
Chad Millman
I've been seeing it. I've been seeing it all week. We're gonna dig in on that.
- [13:30]
Simon Hunter
And again, I don't want to give up too much. We're about to dive into it. But shockingly, there is some respected money coming on that Panther side because there's a lot of trends and other stuff that favor them. But I. I've become even more bullish with you on this Rams team stuff.
- [13:43]
Chad Millman
Oh, good. Because I was worried about that.
- [13:45]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, let's. Let's get to it.
- [13:47]
Chad Millman
All right, so look, the first game, don't forget, don't forget we're. That this week. This week we are doing our normal. We are doing a Saturday morning show. Saturday morning, we're going to preview all the games for the weekend and then we will do a Monday review show instead of our normal Sunday review show. We will recap how we've done and preview anything remaining for the Texans and the Steelers. Next week, same thing, Saturday morning show. Then we'll do a Sunday night show after all the games wrap. So a little bit of an adjusted schedule. We'll keep reminding people. All right, get the Show. Sharper Square. YouTube. Subscribe like the Video Here we go. Los Angeles Rams at the Carolina Panthers. The line is ticked up a little bit to ten and a half. The total is 46 and a half. It's the same as it was the other day. Contest includes totals for all the games. I was really worried because the other day I listened back to the show to listen to all the fantastic ear candy that Matt Mitchell put in special for the wild card and it was awesome. I encourage everyone to listen to the audio versions just because they're great.
- [15:18]
Simon Hunter
Let's go.
- [15:19]
Chad Millman
Matt, you were not enthusiastic about my chat's choice on the Rams and so tell me how you've come around.
- [15:26]
Simon Hunter
I've come around that I bet it. But I was just, I just thought there's other games I was hoping you'd love more. Just because I am a little lukewarm on this one and I just knew this would be a ton of stuff going against and it's like, all right, I gotta wait for our guy. Evan Abrams put out his article so I can start seeing what these are because I, I couldn't find too many numbers going against the Rams or this, this Panthers team. And you know Evan is the best. He's gonna deep dive on stuff and he had one that jumped out right away. Since the 1970 merger, teams that closes a four point favorite or more on the road in the playoffs. There are one in eight against the spread. Losing their last eight games against the spread. The last cover came in 1971 by John.
- [16:06]
Chad Millman
I don't like that.
- [16:07]
Simon Hunter
I know. And that's what I'm like. I saw that type of stat and then my. Right away though in my mind, Chad was the books know that as well. Like they didn't need to hang this. And minus 10, minus 10 and a half. They easily could have made this seven. Seven and a half. Because these teams have already played. The Panthers literally beat this Rams team. They're always gonna get Panther money. I'm just shocked they hung at this high like we said they. They didn't zero adjustment off their model. That really kind of showed me that feels like they know devonte Adams is gonna be back for this matchup.
- [16:38]
Chad Millman
Well, he did practice.
- [16:39]
Simon Hunter
Yes. And that's full participation. Like I talked about. The guy literally led the league in touchdowns with 14. He hasn't played since November. That's how incredible pace he was on. He probably would have finished with 17 or 18 touchdowns if he had played the full season. He's just a huge weapon for that offense. And you know all these trends, it just keeps Backing up Carolina, right? This huge home dog. And it keeps reminding me of this Rams team. This is such a unique spot. They're like, they. They should not be the fifth seed. They should be the one seed. Like, all the things they had to break against them. All those stupid games. They blew the Eagles, the Seahawks, this Panthers team, they should have won this game. They're just.
- [17:20]
Chad Millman
The Niners.
- [17:21]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, the Niners. They're not like other fifth seeds. I mean, they lost the Mac Jones. I mean, that was crazy.
- [17:27]
Chad Millman
Mac Jones be like 15 and 2.
- [17:30]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. So that's what, like, I get. Evan killed me. Evan had all these trends. It's like, Panthers, Panthers, spaces. And I was like, you know what? I'm not gonna do it. I'm gonna stay with Chad. Take this Rams team here. They're the better team. I know there's a little bit of weather coming in here as well, if you want the honest truth. I know pros who are just hammering this under. Like, I've talked about these. These outdoor unders. It's. You're asking a lot of Bryce Young in his first playoff game to match the pace that Stafford's gonna set. Even if Stafford comes out slow, which he has these last couple weeks. But like I said, I think it's a devonte Adams thing. It's just. It's just been different without him once he gets into a role. So, yeah, it's. It's crazy. We're taking the chalkiest bet of the week, Chad. But I. I'm with you. It's minus 10 at Hard Rock. That's too good of a number to pass on.
- [18:17]
Chad Millman
Evan has his trends. There's always a counter trend, right? So killer sports. The killer sports teams playing their first playoff game after winning no more than six games the season before. 21 and 38 against the spread. Carolina, Chicago, Jacksonville, New England, San Francisco. We like. We like the other side in every one of those games. This is the only one we're waffling. Playoff teams that lost to an opponent in their most recent meeting that occurred in week nine or beyond. You talked about this the other day. 61, 39 against the spread, Green Bay and the Rams. So I still like it. Here's what's interesting for the contest. We could easily go 5 unders if we want. Do you know what I mean? So if we decide. All right, like, at the end of the day, we just like the unders better than we like the sides. We can totally do that. But I am not waffling on this game. I feel I Feel ebullient whether does.
- [19:17]
Simon Hunter
It make you a little nervous? Dome team outside in the weather?
- [19:20]
Chad Millman
No. The Rams are a really good running team.
- [19:23]
Simon Hunter
True. Now I'm with you on it. It's just, it's not one of my five biggest bets. Obviously we're including totals. But I've come around the sense that I, I, I was just like, this number is so big. Shouldn't we just blindly take the Panthers? And I've come around to your side of no, this is a really, really legit Rams team that's playing against a competition that's they're far superior of the the Panthers. Everything broke right for them to even make it with a losing record in that terrible division. And, and I hope I'm not eating these words come Saturday night.
- [19:53]
Chad Millman
No, I hope so too. On Thursday, this game, the Green Bay packers at the Chicago Bears.
- [20:03]
Simon Hunter
Come on, baby, don't you wanna go. Baby, don't you want, you want to.
- [20:15]
Richard Sherman
Go.
- [20:19]
Simon Hunter
Back to that Same.
- [20:25]
Chad Millman
On Thursday, the Bears were the favorite. Yeah, the packers are now the favorite. And it settled with the packers, like at one one and a half in most places. You noted this is a wise guy play. I think we all expected it to be a wise guy play. The total is ticked down about half a point from 46 to 45 and a half. The same trend I just talked about with the Panthers being a playoff team that hadn't won more than six games the year before, 2138. Same trend I talked about with the Rams, a playoff team that most recently lost to the team they're playing week nine or later, 6139 against the spread. Everything trending in the packers direction, along with the fact The Bears were 1 and 1 against the packers this year and needed miraculous comebacks in the final stages of both games just to get to that.
- [21:26]
Simon Hunter
And you could also say, you know, Jordan Love hasn't played in a couple weeks. Could be Rusty. Caleb, as bad as he's looked in certain games, he always eventually finds it. And that's been the most important, important part about him is as bad as he's been in certain games, he doesn't turn the ball over. Your defense gets the turnovers. Like there is the magic is there for the Bears. But I don't know how many other times in our life we'll see a two seed as a home dog. Yeah, it's the, the line's telling you something. When they're, when they're moving this much and it's still money and the tickets pouring on The Bears, it's not good. And I, I know Chad feels that right now, like this is not where you want to be with your team in the playoffs and you have home field advantage. And like you said, the, the packers have, have outplayed them like that. That game they stole what a take an onside kick. I mean it was the most insane, miraculous comeback. And that's another thing I'll say though, with the Bears, like as much as the packers have owned them, the packers have not. I mean the Bears have not played their best game at all either matchups against this packers team. They just have not. And you know, you could say, well, they've struggled in their division all year. That is true. Right. They struggle with the lines. They weren't dominant against the Vikings of the Bears, as great as they've been this year, they've been much better outside their division. It's just a horrible, horrible first matchup for them. And it sounds stupid. LaFleur, shockingly, is the oldest coach at 46 in the playoffs in the NFC. A lot of experience. He's been in the playoffs, right. This is Ben Johnson's first go in the playoffs and that just cracked on. When someone said that to me, I had to look it up. I was like, there's no way he's the oldest coach of 46. He is. Just because the AFC people know. It's like, you know, a bunch of, you know, Sean Payton's probably 60 something. You just have a lot more mature coaches. AFC with NFC, it's all these young pups and LaFleur now is a seasoned vet even though he's not really done much of the playoffs. At least he's won a couple games with Jordan Love. So I know Chad, it's painful, but you've read it like there's a bunch of trends that favor this, this Packer side and that one. I always give up the top. It's, it's, you know, first time starter Caleb Williams in the playoffs. You know, it's a lot of historical data. We can go back a long time, 20 and 40, straight up a quarterback in this exact position that Caleb Williams in. So, you know, I, I wanted to get there in the Bears, but the more I talked to the pros, I saw where they were going with it. I did grab some more Green Bay plus one and a half. I'd still grab it now minus one and a half. As long as it doesn't go above two. I think you're getting a good number on Green Bay and I'm Sorry, Chad. I. I know this is probably just back to my. You could be like this guy who cares anyway. But I hate it that it's broken this way because I, I did have a glimmer of hope where maybe Jordan Love doesn't play is Malik and or even if Malik was banged up, they'd have to go with the other backup and it's like, oh my God, this is going to be perfect for the Bears. It's going the other way. The. The Green Bay apparently has gotten much healthier. Josh Jacobs off the injury report. On the flip side, the Bears had a ton, a ton of guys didn't practice because they just went through an absolute battle with the lines three days before. So it's the NFL. I don't want to say they screwed you guys, but putting this game on a Saturday, it's not great. It is not great for the Bears.
- [24:34]
Richard Sherman
It's.
- [24:34]
Simon Hunter
It's tough.
- [24:37]
Chad Millman
I don't know if we can put this in the contest.
- [24:41]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I get it. I mean it's your team. I get it. Like I can't know where. We both love the under so we could easily.
- [24:46]
Chad Millman
I love the other one.
- [24:47]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I loved under as well. I think either Jordan Love or Caleb totally doesn't know show. That's. That's my prediction for this one of these quarterbacks because Jordan Love. That's some real him not playing. Yeah weeks he's in zero rhythm. You know it's. I, I believe Watson is going to play but that is a big deal for a guy like him. Coming in, totally no rhythm where Caleb, like I said, he's been inconsistent. But you watch that fourth quarter against the Lions when he gets going. Caleb looks like a top 10 quarterback. No one better when him. I mean him and Loveland, all of it. The connection. It's been crazy. But like I said, you guys have a ton of guys now in the injury report and just feels like the Bears are getting healthy at the exact right time after that bye week.
- [25:30]
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- [26:32]
Richard Sherman
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- [27:47]
Rob Gronkowski
And S. This is Rob Gronkowski from Dudes on Dudes with Gronk and Jewels. Sunday mornings are sacred. I've got my game day routine, coffee jersey laid out and my lucky playlist. But the real game changer? New morning Uncrustables sandwiches.
- [28:06]
West Wilson
I've always loved uncrustable sandwiches and now I'm all about the new flavors with 12 grams of protein. Bright Eyed Berry or Up an Apple? Bright Eyed Berries got that flashy, finesse vibe like your favorite slot receiver up an apple.
- [28:24]
Rob Gronkowski
Tough and reliable like a do it.
- [28:27]
West Wilson
All tight end and players love them. Did you know teams crush over 80, 000 uncrustable sandwiches a year? They know it's good.
- [28:36]
Rob Gronkowski
It's a snack that can go with you anywhere from the couch to the tailgate or even in the locker room. Soft bread, Yummy fillings. Protein packed. Once it's part of your ritual, you don't skip it.
- [28:50]
West Wilson
Easy enough for Gronk to grab straight from the freezer.
- [28:54]
Rob Gronkowski
Your new Sunday kickoff ritual starts here with the new morning uncrustable sandwiches packed with 12 grams of protein.
- [29:04]
Simon Hunter
Chris Stapleton's All American Road show. With special guests. Get tickets Friday, January 16th 10am@live nation.com Chris Stapleton's All American Roadshow.
- [29:34]
Chad Millman
Sunday Games Buffalo at Jacksonville Jacksonville's a one point underdog. Total is 52, up about half a point.
- [29:41]
Simon Hunter
To get back in the game, the Bills need every bounce of the ball to go their way.
- [29:46]
Rob Gronkowski
You gotta believe if you're a Bills.
- [29:48]
Simon Hunter
Fan, don't go away and fasten your seatbelt.
- [29:51]
Chad Millman
The line is moving a little bit in the Jags direction you indicated like it's, it's a little bit less like it's a little bit more like what the Bears was early in the week. Waffling back and forth. The under is ticked down a bit. Not surprising given the wildcard trends. Matt Mitchell I've never seen Matt Mitchell this confident about a Bills game. He's usually pretty doom and gloom. There's occasions where he's like yeah, I never worried about the Bills in this game but this is a different kind of confidence. And he texted us yesterday from a handle on X called SDQL guru.
- [30:31]
Simon Hunter
Sounds legit.
- [30:32]
Chad Millman
Yeah. The noted the jags are 0 and 19 straight up. When the total is higher than 49.
- [30:39]
Simon Hunter
I get it why you would send that. I would send that too. It's a good stat.
- [30:41]
Chad Millman
Total is 52. I think we both feel like our heart, our, our, our heart is saying Bills but our head is telling us Jacks. And I don't know that we've gotten any insight directionally from professionals in the past 48 hours except maybe a little bit, a little bit of support for the Jacks a little bit.
- [31:07]
Simon Hunter
But it is very split. This is another game. They're not. I don't know anyone any pro wise that's super dug in on either side where you know, you look at the weaknesses of both teams. But the Bills, like I've said they have far more defensively. My favorite thing this week has been I don't know if it was Bills fans or maybe someone on some show I was listening to but they basically were like, well you would be surprised. The Bills actually have one of the best pass defenses in all football. It goes yeah buddy, it's because you have the 30th ranked run defense team. Just run it and all of a sudden Josh Allen makes performs miracles second half and brings the team back. So that's why the quarterback of the team's never throwing. So that's kind of a lame duck kind of stat. And you know, Bills might be without their best corner, who is a rookie. I think he's in a walking boot. He might miss this game.
- [31:49]
Chad Millman
He'd been hurt a lot this year. Fast guy, but hurt a lot.
- [31:52]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, they just have a. Had a ton of injuries. That defense has just been so banged up and yeah, I just, I wanted to, I want to be on the Bills, obviously. I want my guy Matt to win. I want Josh Allen to have his moment. Like this feels like it's it, but it just feels like organizational. They failed him again. He doesn't have a number one receiver. He does not have a good defense. The Jags have all of that and then some. They have two really good receivers and their defense is top 10 against the run, top 10 against the pass. I don't think they're good up a 90 yard rusher. And you know, this season the Bills though have it right. They have the number one rushing team. They have the best offensive line. That's why like I, I'm more confident betting the over and you know, it's, it's come down. I think it got up to 52 and a half. It's another game that might have rain, so it's dropped back down to 51 and a half. I just, I just can't get over how good this Jags team has been this year and they've been really good against bad defenses. Like that stat he sent us is a good stat. It doesn't ring true with Lian Cohen. Lian Cohen is the ultimate game changer. He's better. I can already say after a year seeing what he did with Trevor Lawrence and this team. He's better than any offensive line that's ever come through Jacksonville, even including Doug Peterson, who I think is a great super bowl winning coach. The scheme Liam runs are so much better. He's just so ahead of it. And the confidence you've seen with Trevor has grown every week. So, you know, I'll give out some more stats from Evan that were just really eye popping to me. I already talked about how you want to bet the dogs in the wild card round. These stats are just incredible. Just I, I love these type of things. So since 2017, the underdog 1638 against the spread, so 61%. You know, in the wild card round it's even better. They're 2715, so 64 since 2017. So you just blindly bet the dog in this round, it's going to work out for you. That's why I was so pissed the Green Bay line flipped because it's like, man, that's going to be a good line. It already matched up with the trends. The Jags line here is holding. They're staying as a home dog here and I really like that for us. And I also think to myself, okay, if we're getting the Jags as a dog, if, if I'm not super confident about it, people out there, I'm still going to be taking them at +1. Can easily put the 6 point teaser. Take it up to 7 and a half if you want. Throw it in with something else. Right. I just talked about Green Bay. Some books, they're still plus one and a half. You can take them back up to seven half as well. Like you don't have to bet the line here. Prefer for people like me that like betting straight numbers and doing pick contests. I, I, if I have to get, if I had to make a pick and it's plus one and a half on the Jags, I'm taking that every time. If the Bills were plus one and a half, I honestly would go Bills. That's how close I have. So I literally have it at a pick. But to me, this feels like whoever wins this game wins by one point, maybe a late field goal, maybe by a two pointer and they win by one. Like something bizarre at the end. It just feels so evenly matched offensively between these two teams where like confidence. For me, at the end of the day, it's going to come down to the Jags defense. I see the Jags defense be able to get stops. I have a hard time seeing the Bills consistently getting stopped. So yeah, it's, it's a great game. It really is. And Josh Allen, he has the ball last. If I'm Matt Mitchell, I would smile and be like, this is what everything I knew was going to happen. I got the ball last with the best quarterback in this game. He should go down, get the field goal and win it. But you don't have a kicker. The, the kicker right now heavily favors the Jags. This guy hits bombs.
- [35:14]
Chad Millman
Yeah, yeah.
- [35:15]
Simon Hunter
In the rain. So again, it's all the, everything we like about the Bills is simply that O line and Josh Allen, the rest of it is heavily favored to this Jags team. So I'm not going to get sucked in, Chad. I'm gonna, I'm gonna draw, draw a line here. I'm gonna take the Jags. I'll take them to the point. Where the line flips. So if you can still, still get the plus one and a half, that to me is the position. If not, just, just take the over. The over here is gonna be the fun play.
- [35:40]
Chad Millman
Well, look, you just gave those stats about taking dogs in the wild card and up until this game we're leaning Rams as massive favorites, packers as short favorites. So we're trying to thread a needle here because they don't the wild card. The, the dogs don't cover every game. They just cover a lot of them. So we're playing with fire a little bit on this. I'm going to give you one more stat. Matt Mitchell has said in the script, his head, his heart, all of his organs are saying the Buffalo Bills. And for those who don't know when the Buffalo Bills win playoff games, Matt Mitchell buys cartons of Ben and Jerry's for his entire neighborhood. He goes to the grocery store, buys Ben and Jerry's and just delivers it to his neighbors. So the entire suburbs of Milwaukee are rooting for the Buffalo Bills right now.
- [36:40]
Simon Hunter
My favorite stat I saw from the Packers Bears matchup the last time, the last time the Bears had beat Green Bay in the playoffs. Pearl Harbor. Pearl harbor either just happened or hadn't happened yet. That was the last time the Bears had beat Green Bay in the playoffs. I just love that history.
- [36:58]
Chad Millman
No, because they beat him in 2010. Who? The Bears beat the packers in the playoffs.
- [37:04]
Simon Hunter
No, they didn't. 2010 packers beat the Bears 21 14.
- [37:08]
Chad Millman
They did.
- [37:09]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Jay colors ass. I know Bears fans hate hearing that. Jay Cutler big ass. Big, big ass.
- [37:15]
Chad Millman
Yeah. I never liked Jay Cutler betting against teams who have won eight plus straight games in general. Meaning just better get fade. The team that's on the streak 59 regular season or playoffs goes up to 68.
- [37:31]
Simon Hunter
The fading Jag stat that Chad's giving out here.
- [37:34]
Chad Millman
Yeah, fading. The jacks fit in the jacks. I still don't know if the Jags make it into the final five because because the totals are available and the totals are just so.
- [37:41]
Simon Hunter
I'm happy with that one. I much rather do Green Bay for that one. I tell you that much.
- [37:46]
Chad Millman
San Francisco and Philadelphia. Philadelphia's a four and a half point favorite. Still totals 44 and a half. Welcome to Philly. Lane Johnson. That was the tipping point for both of us. Was limited in practice on Wednesday but Adam Schefter said he is expected to play the line in some places did tick up to fives. I I'm still with you on the Eagles. I do Think he is like Trent Williams for the Niners. This team is just so different when he is in there from a run blocking perspective and a pass blocking perspective. His replacement just isn't as good. Slight movement down on the total, 45 to 44 and a half again, same stat I've given you before. This is another one of those games where the team that lost six or more or that only won six games or less the previous season in the playoffs, 21:38 against the spread. The Niners apply here. I like them both. I like the side and I like the total. Love the total.
- [38:47]
Simon Hunter
This was my favorite total. Unfortunately, it has come down. I did open 46 and a half and now it's been hit down to 44 and a half. But I just don't know how the 49ers are going to move the ball. Especially the fact that Trent Williams has not practiced yet again. Ricky did not practice yet again. So, you know, already thin red wide receiver. We know how important Trenton is for them at the tackle position. And it's just. It's just a. It's just bad. It's all bad for the 49ers and that. They needed that one. See, they needed that bye week. And you know, they just unfortunately ran into an absolute juggernaut of the Seahawks and the defense, but they really were just unlucky. I mean, you think about that pick, Purdy McCaffrey, that never. McCaffrey never drops those type of balls, let alone does it fall snugly right into this guy's one arm as he's fallen out of bounds for the Seahawks. It just everything went right for them. So you expect. Well, the 49ers should bounce back. Right? I know there's a bunch of stats, too about teams that score three points the week before. Like, I think it's them. Green Bay scored three points and might have been the Chargers. It's basically, if you just blindly bet those teams, it's like a 58 success rate the next game. These are all a little weird because the Chargers sack guys and so did the Green Bay. So I don't really know how much to take from that. It's not like they played bad games. There's a bad taste in their mouth. They simply sack guys. You could say 49ers. That's not the same. Right? There is a bad taste in their mouth. They are going to be heavily motivated. But I gave you all those stats. They're walking into an absolute bear den here with this. This Eagles team. Like, the Eagles are just an eagle's nest.
- [40:14]
Chad Millman
They're walking into an eagle's nest. They're trying to steal the little eagle baby eggs from the eagles. And you can't do that with the symbol of America.
- [40:25]
Simon Hunter
It's true.
- [40:26]
Chad Millman
And America will fight back.
- [40:30]
Simon Hunter
And yeah, it's. It just hurts at home. I've talked about it. 5, 0, straight up, 4 and 1 against the spread at home. And, you know, in his career, including the regular season, 31 and 5 straight up at home. He. He's just dominant at home. Hurts. So, you know, I look at this, and it's. It's a big number. I get why the public have come in on this Niners team, but the professionals are telling you, right, they keep hitting this number up. I mean, a couple fives popped yesterday. When it came out that Trent wasn't practicing, they came back down. I think if he is, no go. This could keep creeping up. It could close five and a half, six. So if you do like the Niners, I think you can't be patient. I just don't see this coming down. As the Eagles continue to get healthier and the Niners now have two guys they brought in off the street to play linebacker and starting this game like just a nightmare, nightmare scenario if, If Lane is back and they find the run game with Saquon hurts, might only need to throw the ball 10 times. Like, this is the type of game where, I mean, the Seahawks ran for what, 190 the week before? Yeah. This is the type of game where they could do this game, exact thing, just run the ball down this. See how the. The 49ers, like I said, they're. They're just banged up. They've lost all these guys from their defense, and it's. It's a lot to overcome. Right. They beat up on these bad teams down the stretch here. They ran into a legit defense. The offense really puttered, and I know they've been keeping it quiet, but McCaffrey didn't look right either. He looked like a guy that. Looks like a guy who had over 400 touches in the season has just been banged up. So I. I know I gave out that step by taking the dogs, and it's another favorite here, but it's a favorite that's worth it. And obviously they deserve to be the biggest home favorite this week. They're. They're by far the best team with the matchup they got presented to them.
- [42:06]
Chad Millman
Look, there's so many fucking trends. We're going to end up fading one trend or another here. Like we're going to step in it with something. Sometimes, Simon, you have to know enough to go against the trend. You don't win big money by just going with the trends all the time. Sometimes you got to get creative. That's what we're doing today.
- [42:28]
Simon Hunter
Not true. I know millionaires who simply bet trans people. Do not listen to Chad without a voice. If you dug in and you only bet the dogs wild card, we can do your thing. Don't listen to me. But I just wanted to put that caveat I, I simply said at the top, you blindly bet the dogs here and we are giving out three favorites at this point. So that's, that's where I'm coming from.
- [42:45]
Chad Millman
I know billionaires who fade the trends, but we're not going to fade the trend. On this last game on Sunday, Los Angeles Chargers at the New England Patriots. They are three and a half point underdogs. Simon, this is going to be our brass balls bet of the week. Presented by Hard Rock Bet.
- [43:06]
Simon Hunter
You know what it takes.
- [43:07]
Rob Gronkowski
It takes brass balls.
- [43:11]
Chad Millman
Total is 46 and a half. Zero movement on the line. The total is ticked up a little bit, half a point. What's interesting is more than 60% of the bets coming in on New England and the line really hasn't budged up to four. Which tells you, even though you said there's some wise guys coming into New England here, majority of money coming in on the Chargers. And bookmakers not wanting to flip that to four because they know that everybody who has big dollars in their pockets is going to come in and, and take the Chargers in this spot. Yeah.
- [43:50]
Simon Hunter
And it's such, it's such a weird thing where, you know, we don't trust Herbert in the playoffs. He's obviously over two and he struggled mightily and been hard, won the playoffs. But I said it's the w. Know them better than one. You don't know. And with, with Drake May, I don't know how he's gonna react to the, to the playoffs where Herbert, as much as I don't want to say it wasn't his fault. That Houston game, yes, he, he played bad. You go back, two of those picks were off his receiver's hands like that just. That should never count. Right. Those ones, we hate those type of picks where it's like you put it right in the guy's face or right in the bread basket, he, you know, tips it right up there. The defender, that happened to him twice the other game. We know, notoriously, me and Chad were on the Jaguars that wasn't him. His team blew whatever that was a 30 point, 20 point lead at half.
- [44:36]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [44:37]
Simon Hunter
Because of coaching male practice. He's been great with Harbaugh. Right. And especially and these exact type of games where he's the underdog. I gave you that stat. This year he's 40 straight up as an underdog. This year he's been winning outright where previous years he would cover. He just would never win out right as a dog. When the spread is above three again it's been a crazy run. The last 15 games he's 13 two against the spread when the spread is above 15, I mean above three. So you know I get why the public and some pros are betting Drake May and this Patriots team, we've talked about it right there, such a well coached team. Drake May could be mvp, should be number two in my opinion. But best deep ball thrower in the league this year. I mean what he's done with the pieces around him. The run game is great for the Patriots. You know, variable has these guys playing at such high level. They have not played any good defenses. Let's be brutally honest here. They have not faced any worthy defenses at all. And you know, as much crap I'm gonna give that Bills team, that Bills team, that second half, that defense, what they have three or four straight three and outs against this Patriots team. They gave it one big run.
- [45:39]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [45:40]
Simon Hunter
Otherwise the Bills defense showed up and they showed what it's like to have a veteran team that had been there before in big games. Right. And that's why I can't wait to see how Drake Main, this Patriots team reacts because they're not this really widely veteran team. I mean they obviously had the veteran head coaching of Rabel and McDaniels but the rest of the team is, is very young. And you know, with Drake maybe I just can't wait to see how he plays against his defense because he's really has been beaten up on very bad defenses. And I talk about Minter. This is one of the best defense, especially defending the deep ball. And you know at the end of the day they have the 31st ranked run run offense offensive line in the 32nd ranked pass blocking offensive line, this Chargers team. So we know what they're going to be trying to do here and that's basically just having Herbert drop back maybe 50 times and either run the scramble. Exactly. Chad just nailed it. Like that's going to be their game plan here because that's, that's what's going to need to Work especially. I think Hampton might have been a walking boot. He might have rolled his ankle as well last week or the week before. So it's going to fall on Herbert. I know it's asking a lot, but we're getting Herbert as a three and a half point dog. We have to take that against Drake May especially like me and Chad keep talking about making his first start in the playoffs. It's just, it's never easy for these guys. Even if he does win this. I. Of all the guys we've talked about, I obviously see him winning this. Right? Drake May. I can see them with Variable squeaking out a three point win, but I also could see them laying a total leg and this Chargers team dominated and that Minter defense dominating. So I'm really fired up for this one. I love that you're with me on this for our brass balls. But. And I'm like you, I'm shocked it has not gone down to three. But there is, there is professional money backing this Patriot team with the public and if anything, like Chad said, we maybe will get lucky and this pops the four, but I think the books will just hold it steady. They got action both sides. That's what they love, right? They, they don't want to have to make a decision. They can just let this line sit. And yeah, for totals. I think me and Chad are on the same page again for this one. 46 and a half. I can see your quarterback laying a total leg and this being well under that number. So I got this at 42 and a half. Four points is rare for someone like me. So I, I'm a little worried of missing something here, but I haven't gone too heavy on the under here. But I, I still, I do love this total as the under.
- [47:59]
Chad Millman
We're gonna have some hard decisions to make with these totals because I know we're gonna.
- [48:05]
Simon Hunter
I don't know about you, but I'm waiting to see what the weather is. That's why I'm excited for our Saturday morning show. We'll. We'll know exactly what the weather would be for these games. The Bears might have some snow. This game might be snow. The Eagles game might be rain. Like there's a lot of interesting weather.
- [48:17]
Chad Millman
Carolina. I know.
- [48:18]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, you're right.
- [48:19]
Chad Millman
Atlanta on Saturday when I'm flying back, it's supposed to be, you know, huge thunderstorms. So we'll see. We'll totally see. Let's take a quick break and here's some words from our friends at Hard Rock. Bet Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet, Florida's Sportsbook, and the official sportsbook partner of your favorite Florida teams like the Jags, Bucks, Heat and Magic. The NFL playoffs kick off in just a few days and it's the perfect time to build the same game parlay on Hard Rock Bet and cash in on all the action. Or if you're more into hardwood than the gridiron, you can put up shots on the NBA and college every night on Hard Rock Bet, your home for hoops action all season long. And if you missed the start of the game, don't worry. Hard Rock Bet has live in game betting, so you're never too late to bet any football or hoops game all season. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a $5 bet and if it hits, you get not only your winnings, but an extra $150 in bonus bets. The Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook app is the only legal sportsbook in the beautiful state of Florida. Plus Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, Colorado and Michigan. Coming soon to more states too. Plus, Hard Rock Bet offers new promos every single day, so whenever you're listening, just open the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week, download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit payable in bonus bets. Not a cash offer Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1-833-Playwise in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9 with it gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia.
- [50:36]
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- [51:37]
Richard Sherman
Me tell you about Ready or Not, the tactical first person shooter where you take command of a SWAT team and feel the weight of the badge. Recently I reunited with my Legion of Boom teammates Cliff Averill, Cam Chancer, Michael Bennett and Walter Thurman. We partnered with Ready or Not to go through actual SWAT training and film the whole experience. Watch it now at the Richard Sherman Podcast YouTube channel. Here's what makes this game different. It's not just mindless run and gun. Just like the Legion of Boom built an elite defense on strategy and teamwork, Ready or Not demands the same mentality. You're commanding a SWAT team, clearing rooms, protecting civilians, making tactical calls as a coordinated team with 18 missions that challenge you in completely different ways. Every operation demands that same discipline and and teamwork. Best part? Try it for free for a limited time on PlayStation and Xbox. Go solo or squad up with five players in full crossplay support. If you want strategic, high stakes action that rewards elite tactics and fast thinking, then this is the game for you. Try Ready or Not for free today on PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X.
- [52:53]
Rob Gronkowski
And S. This is Rob Gronkowski from Dudes on Dudes with Gronk and Jules. Sunday mornings are sacred. I've got my game day routine, coffee jersey laid out and my lucky playlist. But the real game changer? New morning Uncrustables Sandwiches.
- [53:12]
West Wilson
I've always loved uncrustable sandwiches and now I'm all about the new flavors with 12 grams of protein. Bright Eyed Berry or Up an Apple? Bright Eyed Berries got that flashy, finesse vibe like your favorite slot receiver.
- [53:29]
Rob Gronkowski
Up an apple. Tough and reliable like a do it all tight end.
- [53:34]
West Wilson
And players love them. Did you know teams crush over 80,000 uncrustable sandwiches a year? They know it's good.
- [53:41]
Rob Gronkowski
It's a snack that can go with you anywhere from the couch to the tailgate or or even in the locker room. Soft bread, yummy fillings. Protein packed. Once it's part of your ritual, you don't skip it.
- [53:56]
West Wilson
Easy enough For Gronk to grab straight from the freezer.
- [53:59]
Rob Gronkowski
Your new Sunday kickoff ritual starts here with the new morning uncrustable sandwiches packed with 12 grams of protein.
- [54:09]
Simon Hunter
Chris Stapleton's All American Roadshow.
- [54:12]
Chad Millman
If you want to count.
- [54:21]
Simon Hunter
With special guests, Get tickets Friday, january 16th 10am@live nation.com chris stapleton's all american road show.
- [54:39]
Chad Millman
All right, simon Monday night football ball. Pittsburgh Steelers hosting the Houston Texans. The Steelers are three and a half point underdogs. The total is 39 and a half on this past Monday night. Tuesday night, Tuesday night me and my wife and our younger son went to you know Sally's Pizza here in West Hartford, Connecticut. You know famous Sally's from New Haven, they got a branch up here in West Hartford. We went to Sally's. They were replaying the Steelers Ravens game from the other night from Sunday night. The last four minutes of that game are freaking bonkers. What happened in that game between the miss extra point, the miss field goal, the multiple touchdowns, the wide open broken play touchdowns from Z flowers, Aaron Rodgers headset not working in his helmet, him going crazy like just I think they scored something like 30 points in the last four minutes. Like truly astonishing game. If you had said to me before that game that Mike Tomlin was going to still be the coach of the Steelers and John Harbaugh would not be the coach of the Ravens because this was the contrast. As we were watching the end of that game again, my son and I all the ticker news was about John Harbaugh getting fired. It had just happened crazy crazy turnaround for Mike Tomlin, a rah rah guy and we're gonna back him again this week.
- [56:17]
Simon Hunter
I don't know about you guys but I've been emailing the Browns for an office every day since then and you got to get a horrible so we can keep our Tomlin horrible.
- [56:25]
Chad Millman
I'm surprised you're not sending them a letter. I know how much you appreciate a.
- [56:28]
Simon Hunter
Handwritten I don't know handwritten is only for local yeah but yeah I, I, I, I can't believe I talked about it. I think two months ago that ex girlfriend on that Reddit post put all that noise out there how the players did not like horrible and it's crazy how that was end up being true and that we're behind the scenes there was beef because he's been in our he's been there so long I, I honestly part of me didn't believe it where it's like how can you hate horrible. He just seems like a good dude like A nice, good guy. That's relatable. But you talk all the time. It's like Andrew Reed leading the Eagles. Eventually you just get sick of hearing the same voice. Yeah, you need a change and that's what happened here. That the part will always be mind blowing to me is what did Sean Payton get traded for like a first round pick from the Saints? The Ravens couldn't figure that out. At least second or third round pick for a coach that's going to be swept up right away. Very bizarre. And that just shows egos, emotion. Apparently Biscuit went in there, they said, you're getting rid of Monkin, right? The OC and he basically said, no, I'm, I'm. If you're getting rid of him, you're getting rid of me. And the owner basically said, okay, you're gone. Again, emotions. Guys should have take a beat, trade this guy. So very, very bizarre the way the Ravens handled it. But to this game, Pittsburgh, I feel bad. People complained I gave out a three and a half and it was gone. I wish everyone could have got it. It's just the way it is though in the playoffs.
- [57:50]
Chad Millman
But people also got to recognize that line was plus three and a half, minus 118 before we went on the air. Like there was so much interest from the professional betting community on the Steelers. Even before we went on the air. We tried to emphasize it while we're on the air. You gotta act when Simon says it.
- [58:11]
Simon Hunter
Hit 3 at every book by 6pm So I get why people are upset, but it's like that's, it's going to be moving. It's just so much money and I, I wouldn't waiver at all. I still like Pittsburgh at plus three. That this change. Honestly, nothing for me. Obviously we love the hook. The hook is the best, but the.
- [58:26]
Chad Millman
Hook will bring you back.
- [58:27]
Simon Hunter
John Popper says so it doesn't affect me at all. And Chad's talking about the vig. There's a couple books now up to minus 118 on Pittsburgh plus three. So this could easily dip to two and a half. So three. If you missed and you're like, why I missed. I want to wait for the three and a half. I don't know if it gets back there. I really don't. I just think the professionals will keep, keep betting the Spittsburg line. Somebody got to be all in for everybody to be all in. I gave it all the stats like Houston. I know it was a small sample, but CJ is, is not as good at home. He's on the road. Right. We've now seen struggle two years in a row on the playoffs on the road, albeit against a Ravens team than a Kansas City team. Really good teams, but Pittsburgh's no different. They're a well coached veteran team at home here. In another game, we're expecting the elements, right? It's supposed to be below 40 degrees, a chance of snow. I know people have been seeing that stat. I didn't really give it out because it does. I don't think it warrants the Chargers or the Rams because are they really a dome team? I feel like no, it's a little.
- [59:26]
Chad Millman
I didn't give out that stat because they don't feel like a dome team. To me that's quasi domes team.
- [59:33]
Simon Hunter
Houston does like you see that there's big splits between them offensively indoors versus outdoors. That does ring true. So once again another game. Me and Chad both love the under. I think both teams have problems moving the ball offensively but eventually to me, Rodgers will get you. That's why I just have faith in Rogers. He's been there before. It's eventually he's going to get you defensively and they're going to be running the tape of these last couple of months where Houston, as great as they've been, they're very susceptible to deep ball throws. They are. The safety is multiple times, especially against that Colts team. They bid up on the run fakes and they sell out every now and for the runs. And Rogers, I mean that's how he beat the the Ravens last week, right in that double move.
- [60:15]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [60:15]
Simon Hunter
To get that final touchdown. He knew it, right. He had the safety sucked up in the one on one and now you're adding in that DK is gonna be back here. So I do, I really do love the Steelers team and their path for the super bowl bowl. And it all starts here. So not shocking to see the public and I think the general media, right. Picking Houston and then and banking on them because they're a top three defense. You would expect them to play well. But Monday night the Tomlin voodoo at home, we all talk too much. Sharp dudes can just see it because sharp dudes don't care what you say anyway. They just watching, you know what I mean? You know I gave up that stat. Whatever. They were 241 the one loss coming during the COVID season. It's just with that fans in that stadium, the renegade music going, it's just, it's the feels man. It really is pretty awesome. I, I, I love the fact that I thought the books would honestly open this at a pick maybe minus one and a half. On Houston, they gave us that gift of three and a half and they're still giving you a gift of plus three. So I really love this number for Pittsburgh, as people can tell.
- [61:14]
Chad Millman
Also Houston, eight game winning streak. Time to fade him.
- [61:21]
Simon Hunter
Even better. Nine game. Even better. I gave you plus. That's even worse.
- [61:25]
Chad Millman
Eight plus 27. Thirteen against the spread fading. The team had an eight plus game winning streak in the playoffs. All right, I think we got some interesting choices to make for Saturday, especially if we're talking about the totals between the Rams and the Chargers and the Steelers and the Eagles. Like, there's some really tempting sides and I am more interested in a lot of these totals. I think that they're playing to our advantage here, so we'll see. Simon, give me some of your biggest bets right now.
- [61:58]
Simon Hunter
Pull up those pants and be a man like Chad said. Nine game win streak. Houston, what they're on teams is a favorite in that exact spot in the playoffs. 5 and 14 against the spread. So Pittsburgh, by far my biggest bet. I love it. Not only the trends do that. I love it. But I also love the matchup for them. And yeah, plus three, it's gonna end up being my biggest side, right. I wish I could have got more than three and a half, but the books, they just limit early in the week like this now. So I'm hoping come Friday after these college football games, right, I'm gonna hit the books right after this. Hopefully a win on Indiana with that extra money and throw a roll it over here on this Pittsburgh team at plus three. So that's gonna be my bigger bets. Eagles minus four and a half. Love that one. Chargers plus three and a half. Absolutely love it for totals. You know, I'm on the Jags over, but that money doesn't compare to what I have on the under for the Eagles game. What I have on the under for this Patriots game, what I have on on the under for that Bears game. Those are my three biggest under bets so far this week. So it'll be interesting to see where we at for the contest. I wouldn't mind putting one of them in for us with one of these totals, but.
- [63:00]
Chad Millman
Oh, I feel like we're going to have at least two totals in there.
- [63:03]
Simon Hunter
I'm about it. Yeah, I do, I do really like the totals here. And just in typical me and Chad fashion, those will be the only two games I go over. Yeah, that's just how it goes.
- [63:12]
Chad Millman
Oh, no, That's a given. I, I'm not, I'm already dreading it. I'm not anticipating anything else other than us being on the wrong side of every trend.
- [63:20]
Simon Hunter
Nah, every single. Won't happen. Can't happen. It's our.
- [63:25]
Chad Millman
What is our sharp versus square. Since we know. Thanks to Chris Sampson at NFL Bet Tracks. You dominated me in sharp versus square. You can go first.
- [63:36]
Simon Hunter
Thanks, Chris. I, I don't. I mean I, I don't want to give out Pittsburgh again. Obviously I'll go somewhere different. We did Chargers too. I'll do. I'll, I'll be a homer. I'll go, I'll go Eagles. I'll go Philly.
- [63:47]
Chad Millman
All right.
- [63:48]
Simon Hunter
Minus four and a half.
- [63:49]
Chad Millman
Simon is taking Eagles minus four and a half. I am gonna go with the Bears packers under. That's one that I can. That total. It's a 45 and a half. So I'll take Bears packers under 45 and a half. Okay. I have bit into that a little bit. What should we do for our parlay? The other day I talked about a parlay. We could do the fade the first time playoff quarterback parlay. Which would mean we're betting the Chargers, we're betting the Rams and we're betting the Packers. But I'm open. I'm open to anything.
- [64:31]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. For me, if I, if I'm doing the dog one I would do I, I like rear heads at where I would go. Pittsburgh with the Chargers are to our Sunday night, our Monday night game. If we're doing favorites, obviously we love the Rams. You can take them down to two and a half. You don't have to do the money line if you don't want to save some on the juice. Throw them in with Green Bay. Put them in there with the Eagles.
- [64:52]
Odoo Advertiser
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- [64:53]
Simon Hunter
Nice little three teamer. Eagles are I believe are minus 238. Another team where if you want to save on the juice, you could do two and a half. I know Jake Elliot. People have major questions about him during the regular season. He's actually automatic in the playoffs. I think in his career he's 17 of 18 for field goals. He's been great postseason wise. Jake Elliott for the Eagles. So yeah, it's. It's a funny week where it's like I, I wish I could throw more stuff in the Jags. I'm just so hesitant with it. The Jags. I don't know. It's. It is crazy the fear that Josh Allen puts into a man.
- [65:23]
Chad Millman
Oh yeah. Patrick Mahomes.
- [65:26]
Simon Hunter
But yeah, if for if we're going my favorite two dogs. It's definitely that Pittsburgh and that Chargers line.
- [65:33]
Chad Millman
All right. I know we're gonna things to focus on Sunday. Rams, Eagles, Chargers, Steelers. Plus some some unders. So it's gonna be fun.
- [65:45]
Simon Hunter
I'm so excited your travels into your favorite team. My man. Go Hoosiers, go.
- [65:50]
Chad Millman
Are you Fight, fight, fight.
- [65:54]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's pretty simple. I win.
- [65:58]
Chad Millman
Google me. That's it. That's what we got. This has been Sharper Square part of the volume podcast network. We will be back on Saturday morning with our final five for the contest. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple pods. Wherever you get your pods rate review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until Saturday morning. Love you.
- [66:27]
Simon Hunter
Fasten your seat belts. It's playoff time.
- [66:35]
West Wilson
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West Wilson
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West Wilson
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Sophie Cunningham
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Sophie Cunningham
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