Sharp or Square: Super Bowl LX Analysis with John Middlekauff

Date: February 3, 2026
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Guest: John Middlekauff (Former NFL Personnel Executive, Host of "Three and Out" on The Volume)

Episode Overview

In this Super Bowl preview, Chad Millman and Simon Hunter welcome NFL insider John Middlekauff for a deep dive into Super Bowl LX – with a heavy focus on betting angles, quarterback storylines, and the critical coaching chess match. The episode weaves sharp analysis on game lines, player evolution, and coaching philosophies with personal stories and insights, aiming to prepare listeners (bettors and fans alike) for the NFL’s biggest game.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Life Beyond Football… Briefly

• Both hosts reflect on their rare football-free weekends, with Chad describing family visits and a Lakers game, and Simon recounting a (failed) surf outing in Jersey after a big storm.
  • “I went out and… basically did. I’m too old for this kind of moment. And paddled back… Never a bad day you get in the water, dude.” – Simon Hunter (05:57)

2. Vikings GM Firing & Lessons from Super Bowl Team Building (09:05–11:00)

• Discussion about the Vikings firing GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, seen by many as a reaction to ex-Viking Sam Darnold leading the Seahawks to the Super Bowl.
• Chad highlights ESPN's stat: only 172 starts by Vikings draftees in the last 4 years (NFL average: 368).
• Simon points out how critical QB decisions can set a franchise back or vault them forward.

Quote:
“If Sam Darnold loses last week, maybe he keeps his job. But as soon as he won that game, I really did—I was waiting for this to happen… The guy, it’s so hard to find.” – Simon Hunter (09:29)

3. Guest Introduction: John Middlekauff Joins

• John brings a perspective as a former NFL personnel man, seasoned bettor, and football lifer with deep insight into NFL culture.

4. Super Bowl LX Point Spread: Injury News & Betting Implications

The Drake May Shoulder Saga (13:19–17:14)

• Chad and Simon break down why the betting line has stayed at Seahawks -4.5 despite concerns around Patriots QB Drake May’s practice participation.
• John argues pregame “injury drama” is often overblown and expects May to play, barring obvious setbacks.
  • “Until I see the guy not being able to function, I’m going to expect Drake May as normal.” – John Middlekauff (14:04)
• Simon notes sportsbooks are “dug in” on the Patriots due to public Seahawks money, making big line moves unlikely.
• Emphasis for bettors: don’t overreact to media injury noise, especially for the Super Bowl, where totals and props can matter much more to bookies than sides.

Quote:
“This is a number that I don’t think they can move, Chad. I think they’ve kind of backed themselves into position… They desperately need the Patriots.” – Simon Hunter (16:04)

5. Super Bowl Betting Volume & Market Dynamics (17:14–19:57)

• Legal betting handle is projected at $1.7 billion in the US alone.
• Chad reminds listeners that most liabilities for books are player props, not sides; last year, Saquon Barkley touchdown and yardage props were massive liabilities.

Quote:
“As much as they do care about the spread… Super Bowl is very unique compared to every other sports week.” – Simon Hunter (19:57)

6. Sam Darnold: From “Seeing Ghosts” to Super Bowl Quarterback (20:13–26:15)

• John discusses Darnold’s journey from erratic starter in New York, to reborn, smart player in Seattle’s Kubiak offensive system.
• Strong play-action scheme, “layup” throws, and all-around efficiency have synergized with his physical tools—so turnovers are now his main pitfall.
• If Darnold avoids mistakes, Seattle’s built to win.
  • “If he doesn’t turn the ball over, like, they will not lose.” – John Middlekauff (25:19)
• Chad and John both stress Darnold’s adaptability and the way confidence, offensive fit, and coaching can flip a career.

7. Darnold’s Improvement: Smarter Plays & Gameplan Adjustments (32:12–36:51)

• Sharp statistical point: Darnold comes into this Super Bowl with the 4th highest playoff QB rating ever.
• John attributes his turnaround to a combination of late-season clutch play (notably a key drive vs. the Rams), confidence, and elite talent around him (e.g., WR JSN, RB Kenneth Walker).
  • “Confidence is a very powerful thing… he’s parlayed that into playing at a really, really high level.” – John Middlekauff (33:21)

8. Coaching Chess Match: Mike Vrabel vs. Kubiak & Seahawks (38:14–43:04)

• Simon lauds Vrabel’s “Art of War” mentality: making others make mistakes, clock manipulation, and game management.
• John outlines Vrabel’s edge from years with Belichick, noting his deep playoff experience and ability to scheme in high-leverage moments, ably supported by OC Josh McDaniels.
  • “Their coaching advantage… Mike’s understanding of what it takes in these massive games… When it comes to football, [Vrabel] is brilliant.” – John Middlekauff (40:25)
• Caution: impressive coaching combos like Vrabel/McDaniels are often huge underdog equalizers.

9. Mike Vrabel: The Patriot Difference Maker (46:59–48:51)

• The hosts underscore Vrabel’s unusual path: former player, leader, and now “throwback” coach who can relate to every locker room strata and leverage both his playing and coaching experience.
• Likens his potential impact to a “Belichickian moment” if the Patriots can upset Seattle.
  • “There is not a human being in that room that he can’t relate to. The high paid guy, the practice squad guy… he’s seen it all and he’s won at the highest level.” – John Middlekauff (47:19)
• Fun note: “The only person who didn’t know what a genius Mike Vrabel is was the owner of the Tennessee Titans.” – Chad Millman (43:04)

Key Quotes & Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)

• On Darnold’s evolution:
  “If he plays an efficient game like he did against the Rams… they will not lose.”
  – John Middlekauff (25:19)

• On the betting line and public money:
  “They desperately need the Patriots, and every contrarian bettor I know, they’re on the Patriots simply because of that—the house always wins.”
  – Simon Hunter (16:04)

• On Vrabel’s edge:
  “I think Mike, when it comes to football is brilliant… From a game management standpoint, he’s a freaking genius.”
  – John Middlekauff (40:25)

• On confidence and quarterback play:
  “Confidence is a very powerful thing… when you’ve got it, you feel like it ain’t ever going to leave.”
  – John Middlekauff (33:21)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 03:06–05:16: Weekend catch-up and personal stories.
• 09:05–11:00: Vikings GM firing; lessons from team building and Darnold’s impact.
• 13:19–17:14: Drake May injury updates, implications for Super Bowl point spread.
• 17:14–19:57: Super Bowl betting volume, market insights, why sides aren’t always the book’s biggest worry.
• 20:13–26:15: John Middlekauff on Darnold’s development and role in Seattle’s success.
• 32:12–36:51: Analysis of Darnold’s play improvements and offensive support weapons.
• 38:14–43:04: Vrabel’s influence, playoff coaching experience, and why Seattle should still be wary.
• 46:59–48:51: Vrabel’s pedigree, relatability, and “throwback” presence.

Final Takeaways

• The Super Bowl line is stable but dictated by immense public money and book positioning.
• Seattle’s success hinges not just on Darnold’s composure and decision-making, but also on whether he avoids critical mistakes in the face of a Patriots defense crafted by Vrabel and McDaniels.
• Mike Vrabel’s coaching acumen is the Patriots’ biggest potential edge, bringing strategic tricks and deep understanding from both his playing and coaching experience.
• Confidence and fit matter: Darnold’s turnaround underscores how quickly narratives can flip in the NFL through the right environment and support.
• Bettors should remember: Don’t overreact to late-breaking news and don’t blindly “fade the public” in the Super Bowl—prop markets dominate book worries in this singular betting spectacle.

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