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SUPER BOWL LX BETTING PREVIEW: New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks Picks & Predictions
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- [00:00]
Commercial Announcer
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Chad Noma
They ever actually clean the ball pit at these kids play gyms? Or is my kid just swimming in.
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Simon Hunter
A vat of bacteria catching whatever cootie of the day is breeding in there?
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Chad Noma
A cootie that'll probably take down our whole family.
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Commercial Announcer
Luckily, with Amazon One Medical 24.
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Simon Hunter
7 Virtual Care, you can get checked out for whatever ball pittitis you've contracted.
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Amazon One Medical Healthcare just got less.
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- [02:36]
Chad Noma
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock bet. We are part of the Voluum Podcast network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Noma. I am Joanne. As always by my bff, my co host, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
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Simon Hunter
Chad. It's always bittersweet this first week of two of the super bowl week because it's, it's the first time it feels like the season is actually over. Right? The super bowl. As much as a football game, it is. I don't know how you spend most of your Sundays. It is not a normal Sunday for any football fan. Yeah, you're going to some party, you're talking to some guy, missing plays, you're trying to watch commercials. The whole thing is very upside down where, you know, this Sunday we get the two best games of the year usually. And the Monday wake up is just brutal for me is some of that. You know, my big excuse in life is football. And it's only, hey, can you get together? Can you do this? No, I got football now. There's no excuse. It's like, well, you got one game left. How busy can you be? And I, I always say that's, that's fair. So, yeah, it's, it's bittersweet waking up. But I'm excited to talk about Super Bowl. As always, it's the best game of the year, the biggest game of the year. And you know, as much as people want to complain about the match, stuff like that, I. To me, there is never a bad matchup because we got. No, we got gambling. Yeah, it's always good.
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Chad Noma
Look, I'm with you. That, that I have spent my adult life working in sports media and using. I need to watch football as an excuse for everything. And because I know my wife does not listen to this show and I know my kids do not listen to the show, it is the greatest get out of anything card or leave something early card that exists is being able to say, hon, it's Thursday night. I gotta watch the Bengals Jags tonight. I gotta be able to talk about this game, you know what I'm saying? Or like, it's Sunday afternoon. I can't go to our friends to hang out on Sunday afternoon. I'm taking notes. Or my favorite. My wife, who I love dearly, is very busy. She's an architect. She has a thriving practice and she doesn't, like, have time to chitchat during the day. And so I'll walk down from our, you know, from my office, which is on the third floor, to her office, which is on the second floor, which is our older son's old bedroom. And I'll walk in and be like, how's it going? Let's gossip. Let's, you know, talk about stuff. She's like, I got no time for you. I'm very busy. I can't chit chat in the middle of the day. The only time she ever actually wants to. To engage me in conversation Sunday afternoons when I'm watching football, taking notes, sweating bets, thinking about the contest, thinking about the games we put in the contest. Are we going to end up the day with a winning record? Sunday afternoons during the football season are my most stressful time of the year. Those are always when my wife wants to come in and just have the longest, most detailed conversation about what's happening in our lives, in the world. And I keep having to say to her, just pretend this is my office and my office is 30 miles from our house. I am not here. I cannot have a conversation. That excuse is gone.
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Simon Hunter
It's over, buddy.
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Chad Noma
I'm doing a very special shame on us to start the show, Simon.
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Simon Hunter
Shame, shame, shame.
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Chad Noma
Shame on you. Do you know why? Why the super bowl matchup between the Seahawks and the Patriots was actually scripted months ago. We spent all that preseason time talking about the Rams at longer odds or the packers at longer odds, or, you know, taking the Chiefs and the Ravens at Both less than 12 to 1 or whatever it was, whoever. I don't know if you saw this going around yesterday in between all the sort of sad, but why penguin memes? Back in September, the NFL released a Super bowl poster for this season with a bunch of NFL stars facing a massive Lombardo Trophy, all illustration, right? Like into the very back where most prominent in the foreground is Saquon Barkley. Then it's Purdy, and then it's Burrow, and then it's Mahomes, and it's J.J. watt at the very front closest to the trophy. You can see it here if you're watching the show. Matt Mitchell's put it up closest to the trophy on the left at the very front, Sam Darnold and Drake May Simon. The script was written. If only we had played closer attention, we would have bet a Patriot Seahawks matchup at 100 to 1. That is the longest odds for a Super bowl matchup in 50 years, because.
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Simon Hunter
I just can't help but rage. I never would have saw it because I would just be instantly raging about the fact that they didn't put the Super Bowl MVP from the year before. I know. And put Saquon Barkley.
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Chad Noma
I thought about that, too.
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Simon Hunter
Most disrespected player in the league. It never ends, Chad. It just never ends.
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Chad Noma
It's actually. It's so funny to me. I saw that. I'm like, really? No. Jalen hurts.
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Simon Hunter
No. Purdy makes it, not Christian McCaffrey. They put Purdy in there with McCaffrey. But, no, let's put Bart. Unbelievable.
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Chad Noma
Here were some other interesting stats that I'm cribbing from our friend Ben Fox, my old ESPN colleague who's at Yahoo. Sports now. Never before have two teams with preseason Super bowl odds of more than 501 met in the super bowl in that time span. And the closest approximation to any of this was all the way back in 1992, when the San Francisco 49ers had 50 to 1 odds and the Bengals had 601 odds and they met in Super Bowl 16. We could have had Simon. We could have had the Patriots at 80 to 1. We could have had the Seahawks at 60 to 1 both to win the Super Bowl. Neither of us had either of them.
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Simon Hunter
Yeah. And the odds, they sound right to me when you break it down that way. When you look back at all the unknowns for both these teams, we knew the schedule, right, had to, was breaking easy for the Patriots. But to think they had to steal this division. And then the thought was, well, they're gonna have to go through a Lamar, a Josh Allen, Mahomes in the playoffs. And it broke the other way. They'd have to face any of them. So we love betting long shots, and we've been joking how we've been due for a good long shot, just because I think you read it out, the only one, only real one we've had in about nine, 10 years was that Bengals team. I think they're 150 to one, right? Joe Burrow, coming off an ACL tear of his rookie year. You know, low, very low expectations for that team. And they shocked the world. I still think Drake May and this Patriots team is more shocking to me than that Bengals team making a difference. Just because, you know, Joe Burrow, number one pick, he did it. He made a crazy run with lsu. It's like we kind of knew he had that talent in him. This run by Drake May, even though it's not been all about Drake May, right? It's really been about the Patriots defense still. Like we keep saying, Drake May's made the play in these, in these situations that's got him here. So those odds, yeah, we know a couple people that bet it. Props to them. And I joked with you, all I had left was that Rams, all that was the only future I had left. And yeah, that was, that was a dead ticket. So, so I had a couple of people reach out before the year. You know, obviously Seahawks fans at their core, saying I was missing it. You're, you're wrong about Sam Darnold. This team, this defense is gonna be one of the best in the league. And I just kept saying, your division's so hard. Like, are you really gonna be the best team in that division? I just couldn't believe it. It's like to me, I trust the 49ers, I trusted the Rams. I just did not trust them to win that division. And my God, it took the last game of the year, but they did it. They won that division and they've proven that out. They've been the best team, you know, since what, mid November all the way through. They've just been the most well coached, best team. So they've, they've earned it.
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Chad Noma
By the way. They've been the best team since mid November, which is about exactly when Sam Darnold's actual performance started to crater. And we're going to true, truly. Like, if you look at his numbers, like his QBR was something like in the 60s for the first nine weeks of the year and in the 30s for the rest of the season. Like, he has not been the guy that got him where they are right now. But one more note on the preseason odds. The Arizona Cardinals actually had shorter odds to make the super bowl before the season began than the Seattle Seahawks did. And, and I will say about that Joe Burrow team, he also beat Patrick Mahomes. Like, I think the expectations throughout the year for that Bengals team were just so different. We're gonna have Evan Abrams on the show on Thursday. Everyone who's a longtime listener knows Evan, our former colleague from Action, who was one of my longtime good buddies who worked with me back when I was doing my columns and helping me research them at ESPN going back 15 years. He's going to come on the show. Simon always references him. He was a regular on our show on Action. He's going to come out with a bunch of trends. One of the trends that we both love betting is the super bowl matchup to be between two of the teams that have two of the five teams that have the shortest odds to make the super bowl because it had been consistent for 12 of the past 13 years. The exception being that Bengals team and the exception being this year.
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Simon Hunter
I don't know if you looked at next year's super bowl futures, it is the most wide open in my lifetime it's ever been. Which is really fun, exciting where we're all overreacting this season, where I'm going to lean into just betting what's happened in the past and probably get a lot of good value on a lot of these quarterbacks.
- [12:50]
Chad Noma
They're kind of oh my God like I don't know when Patrick Mahomes is coming back, but I'm going to want those Kansas City Chiefs. Yeah, we went three and two in the contest last week. Simon. Big bounce back for the good guys. We loved Jared Stidham for his huge throw early in the game that led to the Broncos score. We love Stiddy for the pick on the last throw of the game. Those were two of our victories. We won with the Broncos plus four and a half Stidy to throw that pick. Seattle minus two and a half. We lost with New England Denver over and Jackson Smith in jigba to score a touchdown. I'll tell everybody they got to go. Read our friend Seth Wickersham story on ESPN.com he was in the room with Peyton after that fourth down call after the game. Incredible drama, insight, thought process. Really, really good. In our nine week hard rock bet contest we are now 5649 heading into the final week of the Super Bowl. We've got one week left. The leaderboard for Sharper Square Pro Football Pick them contest looks like this. We have four entries tied at the top with 28 wins but 11 more right behind them with 27. It's going to be a photo finish. We can't wait to announce the winner the Tuesday after the Super Bowl. Good luck. This is our Tuesday super bowl show. We're done with Chad's choice. We are. We don't have to be, but we are going to have a brass balls Simon. I think it's up to you if you want to do a Simon says of course. Of course we'll have our normal Tuesday and Thursday shows. We don't have any more Sunday shows. This week's slate for contest players will include sides and totals for the conference for the Super Bowl. But if you aren't in love we will still have some player props as well. It's time. Enough housekeeping. New England versus Seattle in Santa Clara. Seattle Seahawks, four and a half point favorites. The total is 46. The line opened at three and a half, immediately shot up to five. At some books, it is settled at four and a half. I know sharp money came in at that three and a half. I bet it at three and a half just to take a little taste. 26% of the bets around New England. Simon, you've been a little bit cagey about this. When we talked about it on Sunday, you were cagey. I'm curious to get your thoughts. I don't know, like I was trying to press you on Sunday night, what do you think of the Seahawks? And I told you I had better at three and a half and instead of giving me sort of a straight, oh, I like that. Or, yeah, I'm going to play the Seahawks. You're like, well, you better hope it goes up.
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Simon Hunter
Not true at all. You're okay. You're always the victim. You're one of these people, aren't you?
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Chad Noma
Oh, my God.
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Simon Hunter
Twice I simply said to you, take the Seahawks three and a half because it's not going to go down, it's only going to go up. That's literally my direct quote to you.
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Chad Noma
Ah, that's not what you said. It's not how I listen.
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Simon Hunter
Yeah, exactly how you listen. And I was brained at the time and I still remember that conversation.
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Chad Noma
So that's not how I listen.
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Simon Hunter
It's not a crazy person.
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Chad Noma
It's not how I interpret that conversation.
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Simon Hunter
Couldn't be more, more of a friend.
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Chad Noma
Telling them, if you don't know by now, Simon, that I need constant over the top affirmation about what I'm saying and my choices, then you don't even know me anymore. You know, I need you to say, chad, that's a sharp play. If I don't hear that, then it might as well be, oh my God, I'm spinning.
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Simon Hunter
I mean, I guess it's a sharp play, but I mean, I just, you know, I try to be as supportive as I can be. I'm trying to find my bed now they don't have it up the exact. My. Simon says I want to give out. Unfortunately, people. So it's, it's Simon says, whenever you can get it, get it. It's not, not going to change. I don't care what the number is. The under in the first quarter. I want to play a game. Simon says, always blindly take the first quarter under in the Super Bowl. But Tom Brady was a gift by the gods. He, I think in his career out of his whatever, 11 super appearances, he went over the first quarter once. But every other quarter it's the same for everybody, right? It's. You're waiting all day for this game. Everyone's so tight in that first quarter. It's such a feel out and these are two good defenses. So you know, again, I don't know what it's going to be. The total open to 46. It's come down to a couple different books. So I'm assuming their first quarter will come down as well. But if we're lucky and they give us that 10 and a half 10 it's a no brainer. Simon says slam it. So unfortunately I'm like I've gone to a couple different books since we've been on and I just haven't found it. But yeah, that's for right now, like for talking first bet I'm going to make for a decent amount of money that that's going to be one of my bigger positions. But yeah, this game, breaking it down. I love it. Like watching, you know, film all season of both these teams. You know, both have their glaring weaknesses and they've overcome a lot of it with just really good coaching. And you know, we talk all the time how important the quarterback position is and how important important the, the coaches. And you look at this matchup and it's like, you know, two coach of the year candidates, like the mvp, the.
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Chad Noma
Two coach of the year candidates. The shortest odds for Abel and McDonald.
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Simon Hunter
Yeah. And which is again so fair when you like break it down when you gave those future super bowl odds and it's like, yeah, Ben Johnson, is he deserving? Of course. But you know, these two teams, they got the one, they got the two seed. That's why these coaches are where they're at. So you know, I. Okay, man. Mitchell said he's only. He's seen seven and a half minus 115 for that first quarter. Which again that, that sounds right. I'd price it like that. So I was hoping we get the 10. 7. Half the books seem like they're on it so I'd still take it. But yeah, hopefully you can be patient, maybe get a better number than that. But really wanted to be on the Patriots honestly when I, when this number first came out because it's just like everyone's gonna react right. They played. Now of course it's natural to overreact. But why is this number not 7? I do not get how low they opened it. The fours four and a halfs. I could be Missing it again. I'm not in a rush to have to bet it, but you can tell I am heavily leaning toward the Seahawks. I think this number is way, way off. And I'm excited to hear all the trends from Evan because right now the trends, I found they all lean heavily into the Seahawks team. Like they really do. Favorite. Now there are. You know, we talk every year in the super bowl. If you blindly just bet the dog every year, you will make a profit. I've talked about this ad nauseam. If you like the dog, yes, you could take the number, right. But you have to play the -2 and a half on their side. Right. You have to take the alt line on the dogs. Just because we've talked. In the history of football, however long super bowl isn't around, there's only been one time, one time the number fell between two. So it's just an anomaly. The number never really falls on two or one. So if you like the Patriots, sure, take the four and a half, but you also should be taking the adjusted line. Same with the Seahawks. If you like. If you're like me and you like the Seahawks, here I have it say graded at seven. I'm gonna take the minus six and a half. I'm taking all numbers that get better juice on this. Just because I talk all the time. I bet really big on the Super Bowl Bowl. Now, it's not gonna be as big as it was last week. Right. For Denver with me, but this the super bowl, just like we're Denver last week. Every book I called up welcome Denver money. Right? That's because it's the playoffs and they're trying to balance their books. It's the same with the Super Bowl. Even if everyone in the world is on the Seahawks, they're still going to take my Seahawks money. Now, it might only be 10k here one book or a thousand here at one book or even some books if they have. I, I won't say the book's name, but a book took a million dollars really quickly on the Patriots moneyline.
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Chad Noma
Right away it was circa. I mean, it's all over social. I actually texted the bookmaker there and said, was that professional money? Would you. How would you categorize that? He wouldn't give it up, but and. And respected him for.
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Simon Hunter
Not by not giving it up, though.
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Chad Noma
Why? Why do you say that?
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Simon Hunter
Because that's Joe Public. That ain't no. I do not think that's a pro.
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Chad Noma
I don't know either. But I also know that every year in Vegas, there's always some professional who's making a huge moneyline bet on an underdog.
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Simon Hunter
Oh, sure. I just don't know why he would come in right then and there when if he can just wait, this number is going to go up. He would have got a better number. Like, I don't know what pro would be thinking, oh, this is going to go down. Like the public's going to hammer other pros are going to hammer this Patriot side. That's just.
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Chad Noma
Again, I like your theory because I'm already on the Seahawks and I don't want to find reasons to not be on the Seahawks. Well, there's.
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Simon Hunter
I mean, it's always split. It's just you want more pros to be on the Seahawks, which I do think is going to happen. Like I said, the I'm not the only one of the model that has his team weight favorite. I told you last week I gave Chad a little bit of peek behind the curtains that every pro I talked to had that game basically had a pickup. They it's what I talk about all year. The Rams, everyone had them modeled so high they went 0:3 in the playoffs against the spread. So it just shows how our models didn't catch up to what that Rams team had become. They just were not as good as we all had measured them out. I still think not just me, other professionals are undergrading the Seahawks team. It's what Chad said, though. The thing is growing with my model is the Sam Darnold turnover rate. He not just throws picks, he fumbles a normal amount of times. So that's really messing with the numbers and the lines. And that's why last week I told Chad I like six where it's like the books don't make mistakes like this in these type of games. Like, that's why I felt like it was a professional trap, that Rams line, because all this smart Rams money was coming in. That number wasn't budging. I'm happy to see that smart money did come on the skelps and it did drive it up right away. That wasn't public money driving this number up. That was really smart professional money. So, yeah, like again, we're gonna have Evan on. He'll give out all these stats. But the one that jumps out, if you just blindly bet the underdog in the Super bowl since 2004, you are 15 and 7 against the spread.
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Chad Noma
Yeah.
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Simon Hunter
Blindly bet the underdog. So right there, if you're someone that just you want to be Katarian, you want to fade the public, here I have no issue with it. I get where you're coming from, but I tell you all the time, fading the public in the super bowl does not work. It just. There is no public. It's. There's so much professional money here, it kind of dilutes it. You can't just blindly say, well, I'm just fading the public here. Now, if this was, you know, Stitty coming in with Denver, then that's a position of you're truly fading the public where it doesn't matter if stitty put up 300 yards. People were not going to be backing him in the Super Bowl. Right. They were going to back the Seahawks team. And, you know, we got lucky. It's a good matchup. And right away when it came out, I was like, okay, I'm like, Chad here. I'm going to like this, this Seahawks team, and I'm gonna try and try to find some Seahawk numbers that really back up my feel for this, which is they're just such a dominant team right now, and it doesn't feel like they've lucked into this. They feel like they've dominated and won, you know, pretty impressively all their games. And the stat that jumped out right away. Since 1990, you know, we've had favorites here that went perfect in the conference championship game. Both teams obviously won. They went obviously patriots won the Seahawks one. So we got 6, 0 in the conference championship. So that happened in 91 and 2004. And obviously it's happened now the last five. Chad, the favorites in the Super Bowl, 5, 0, 41 against the spreads. We've seen historical data show the best teams tend to. And when it's like the year of chalk, which it doesn't feel like that way because Chad just gave you all those crazy stats. But it has been right. The favorites have just been winning in this. In the playoffs here. And that happened the conference championship, which was anomaly, right? Both favorites winning. It doesn't happen that often. I just gave you those numbers. It's only happened six times since 1990. I mean, it plays out right. When these two favorites make it to the super bowl, it tends to show the better team, which largely is the Seahawks. They tend to dominate this matchup.
- [25:01]
Chad Noma
Let's do a quick word from our friends at Hard Rock Bat. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bat, Florida's sportsbook. The big game matchup is set. I cannot wait to see the Patriots play the Seahawks. Hard Rock BET has all the different ways you can get in on Sunday's action in the Big Game. So far, we're leaning towards the sea Box. If you haven't signed up with Hard Rock Bet, there's never been a better time. This week they're launching a brand new welcome offer for new customers. Plus, Hard Rock Bet is kicking off at $7 million big game bonus party available to all users. You're definitely not going to want to miss that. And if you're in Florida or New Jersey, the Big Game energy doesn't just live exclusively on the app. Head to Hard Rock Casino property for drawings, giveaways and all the excitement leading up to kickoff. Hard Rock Bet also offers new promos every day, so if you're listening to this later, just open the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week, that's Hard Rock Bet. Download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit today. Payable bonus bets on a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital, LLC in all other states. Must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1-833-Playwise in Indiana. If you were someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9 with it gambling problem call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia.
- [26:55]
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Simon Hunter
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Simon Hunter
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- [29:58]
Chad Noma
We can talk about all the trends in the world and they do have impact here. But the things that stand out to me are going to be about the narratives for this game. The narrative of the Seahawks defense, the narrative of can you trust Sam Darnold? The narrative of did the Patriots play anybody? And does that matter? And that continued into the playoffs, where they got C.J. stroud on the road in bad weather without Nico Collins. They got the Broncos in Denver with Jared Stidham in a blizzard. So they continue to get the very, very good breaks. I'm not discounting Mike Vrabel. I'm not discounting Drake May Drake May led the league in completion percentage. He had a magical year. But at some point we need to do the analysis of these two teams on the field. The Seahawks defense is just so much better than anything they faced. Including the last two defense. The opponent success rate on runs against Seattle 34% lowest in the league. EPA per play on those plays is minus 0.15, also lowest in the league. Opponents have managed to minus 34 first downs over expectation when rushing against Seattle. By far the lowest in the league. The next closest is the Texans at minus 14. So we know what the Patriots are going to have to do here. We know that they're going to have to put the ball in Drake Mays hands and he's going to have to find ways to beat the Seahawks defense deep which we saw a little bit of softness against the Rams like they were the, the, the, the, the Rams offense was able to find openings and do that. But I don't think the Patriots have the same kind of weapons that the Rams do between Devonte Adams and Puka Nakua and at tight end either. So Fascinating, fascinating matchup. You really have to believe the Patriots can level up in order to be competitive in this game.
- [32:16]
Simon Hunter
And I always say I, I try to ward people off from diving too much into regular season numbers. I know you can do dvoa which they. It consistently updates as the season goes along, which is usually a better way to try to dive into that stuff. But the, the whole season numbers don't help totally. Especially when you're. The margins are so small. That's why I do try to lean into the trends here. I know people, they get sick of trends pretty easily but it's, it's just a safer bet because it's just history continually repeats itself in the super. Like the super bowl is just its own season. In my mind I really treat it that way where it's such a unique game. It's so weirdly shaped. And yeah, Drake may mean Chad. We have no idea how he's going to perform in this type of scenario. Again, not that he hasn't done much in the playoffs, but he's faced really hard defenses in terrible weather and climate and his offensive line is atrocious right now. They can't block anybody. And you know, if you want to do dive into their season, I mean if you really think about the last good offense they played, I mean was the Bills. I think that was like the 14th or 13th of December and they gave up 35 points. Josh Allen, who did nothing in the first half dominated them the second half. Totally had his way. Got that defense on their heels. And you've seen the Seahawks team is not that different than that Josh Allen team, which is they want to establish the run and a lot of play action throws. I mean, they live and die off the play action throws. And you know, as. As hard of a path as it was right they faced, I think it was something crazy. Like they beat five or seven top three defenses on their way to make the Super Bowl. This Patriots team, which is really impressive in itself, I do think that this is like a different beast here. Like, this is totally different in the sense that, you know, as great as Stafford was against the the Seahawks, he had to make perfect over fingertip type of throws. Like, he was really in his bag. Throwing to what Chad just said. Puka Naku and Devonte Adams, like, as much respect as I give the Diggs, they're different worlds. Their catch radiuses are just. Are not the same. And you know, I'm excited to see what Josh McDaniel does to attack this yucks team because like we said, you can attack them like they do have guys you can attack and lock in on them. We saw, yeah, when Stafford figured that out, he just kept doing it, right? He kept going after he was like, okay, that guy's on tilt. I'm gonna keep attacking that. That db. And it worked, right? It kept him in the game until it did it. Like you saw, eventually McDonald makes the adjustment, which was so impressed by the Seahawks team. They eventually make the adjustment, they get the stops. And you saw Stafford like at one point, if, like he completed 10 passes in a row. And then all of a sudden in that red zone, they bogged down. They made it so tight. I think at one point they only rushed three pass rushers. They dropped everyone back and it's like, okay, we're not giving you anything. You got to use your legs. It's gonna be the flip side here, right? They're always going to have a spy on Drake Mac. Like, they're just like us. They're going to see Drake May. He did not trust his arm at all in this. In his last. He really relied on his legs. You could say, well, that was because of the weather. It was like then the first half.
- [35:21]
Chad Noma
Before I was going to say he had. He had 22 yards rushing in the first half. And then even into the third quarter, that's when he really took off rushing. The snow didn't start until midway through the third quarter. He was. He. He already had 60 yards rushing by.
- [35:36]
Simon Hunter
Then and like that's to me McDaniels, he'll lean into that a little bit as well because he knows and we already talked about Sam Darnold's Achilles heel as the turnovers. It's the same with Drake May and that feels like with two dominant defenses which these two defenses have been. That's what's going to decide it honestly end of the day. So you know I'm going to get, I'm have a lot of weird bets. We're going to talk about this coming up. But like first score safety 101 or 80 to 1, wherever it's going to be, I'm going to be making that bet. Like I'm going to, I'm going to be getting real weird with it people just because we talk all the time like defensive touchdowns. I know it's odds aren't going to be great for us just because Cooper DeJean had a pick six last year. But that's a bet I like to make every year. Like it's just for some reason either we get a kick return or a pick. These things happen in the super bowl more often than they do for just a normal regular season game. And like we talk all the time. You get crazy odds usually bending. Now that's the only issue I'm going to have is those odds I don't think will be as good as they have been whatever the past three, four years. Just because that's fresh in people's minds.
- [36:37]
Chad Noma
Right.
- [36:37]
Simon Hunter
A pick six. Now we have two heavy turnover quarterbacks. Yeah, I think a lot of people are going to be on that one but that's another one I will dive more into. But yeah, it's you know, looking at this matchup, I, I, I, I do wish I could come in here and just tell people to give out the Seahawks right away. I'm gonna be patient on it, hoping it comes down we get the four. But I got no issue if you want to bet it now. I'm just, I'm not rushing to bet it. Obviously I'm interested to see what the pros are doing with this one because it just feels way too easy. Feels like the books hang a terrible hung a terrible number and they're about to just get beaten. Beaten badly in this one where it's like again, I'm not the only one thinking it. I know plenty of pros out there have already bet silks minus 13 and a half. Like they've already taken that paper position.
- [37:22]
Chad Noma
Really?
- [37:23]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, they just this feels like the type of game that can just be an absolute blowout. Patriots get rolled because of what we talked about. Yes. Do they deserve to be here? Yes. But we've talked about it. Like, have they had any type of impressive win where you have a ton of confidence in this team? No. All we see right now is they have a bunch of flaws. And as good as our defense has been, this is going to be by far the best offense they've played since that Bills team. And like, this is not just the best offense that, you know, that came out of the nfc. This is an offense that when they're clicking, they roll teams. I mean, you just go through the Seahawks schedule this year against bad teams. They never take the foot off the gas when they're, when they're beating up teams, they really do open it up. And even going back to that game against the Rams, like, I, I loved what they did with jsn, right, JSN line up on the backfield. They gave them so many different weird looks that you can just tell they've been saving those plays for months.
- [38:19]
Chad Noma
He was in his bag. Kubiak was in his bag. I thought one of the best parts of the broadcast with Tom Brady on Sunday was how he explained that it's not easy to cover the best receiver on the other team. It's not just as simple as, all right, you're going to put your best corner on their best receiver and he's going to be covered all the time. Because there were so many times when JSN was so wide open. And obviously we talked about it on Sunday, like 10 for 150something and a touchdown. It seemed like every time they needed to play, they found him. And Brady pointed out number one, the way they're scheming him, they're lining him up out wide, they're lining him up in the backfield, they're lining him up in the slot. You don't know where he's going to be. And you can't, you can't put one guy on him and play man on one side and zone on the other. It confuses the entire defense. And so they were able to scheme them open. If they're. They're going to scheme them up again. Like they got. The Patriots have Christian Gonzalez, he's a dominant cornerback, but he's not always going to be on Jackson, Smith and Jigba. They're going to find ways to get him open. Couldn't agree more that I. It's a good segue to the under because I do wonder Will and we're seeing the majority of the bats come in on the over, and this thing is ticked under. Will it be an overall conservative game plan? Mike McDonald's not going to want Sam Darnold to lose in the game. Drake may. Mike Vrabel is not going to want Drake made a loser in the game. It feels like it could be one of those situations.
- [40:07]
Simon Hunter
And we. Again, this is not the shit on Chris Gonzalez. He is not in the same league as jsn. Honestly.
- [40:14]
Chad Noma
No, of course not.
- [40:15]
Simon Hunter
When you break this down, jsn, if he wants to get his, he's going to get it against him. And even breaking down, watching who Christian played against this season, they have not faced anyone at this level. Like, they.
- [40:28]
Chad Noma
He.
- [40:28]
Simon Hunter
He never played, you know, or I guess he did play against Chase, which was with Flacco. But, you know, it's like, you just go through all the teams he faced this year, and it's like, okay, we know Christian Gonzalez is a good shutdown corner, but when I look at this match, I'm just like, oh, my God, they don't. They don't have a true speedster that can stay with jsn. And, yeah, just like you. I love Brady Brady, man, he's just taking a nut to another level.
- [40:55]
Chad Noma
He's been so good. He's been so freaking good.
- [40:58]
Simon Hunter
He was. He's breaking down. What? Jason's so great. Where it's like, he doesn't. His shoulders don't move.
- [41:02]
Chad Noma
Yeah.
- [41:02]
Simon Hunter
Which again, is something I've always noticed. But, like, I love that he was breaking it down. My favorite thing about devonte Adams and devonte Adams, which JSN took from divided ms, is doesn't flash his hands. And literally, until the ball is there, like, he never, ever. The DB never knows that a ball is coming devonte Adams way because they always say his eyes don't light up and he doesn't put his hands up. So you have no idea. All of a sudden, the ball is just there. He just puts his hands up. Last second, JSN does the exact same thing. You watch him running his routes. He's so cool, calm. All of a sudden, he breaks out. He turns. He just knows the ball is gonna be right there on him. So it's just another mismatch for the Seahawks team. It just. I just don't see them be able to slow him down. And, yeah, like Chad talked about, we. We have. We have so many more days to talk about this game, but people can already tell with the way I'm going pretty heavy here with the Seahawks side. I just, I can't get over how bad this number is and just all the matchups and yeah, the more numbers I dive into, especially defensively. Can Drake make take advantage of this Seahawks defense the way that Stafford did? He can, but my God, are those windows so tight? It's just like Stafford really was playing with fire. If you go through Stafford stats, his best games are always against the Seahawks. Like, he always plays really well against the Seahawks. What little data I have for Drake May. Drake May's worst games are against good defenses. Like, he just simply struggles against really good schemes. And you've seen that now when the defenses are able to sky different schemes, give him different blitz looks, he does struggle. Like we talk all the time. That. That's a real thing, right? The playoffs, it's so different. They know what your weakness is now they're going to exploit it to the hundredth degree. Where in the regular season, yeah, teams are trying to exploit it. It's not the best defenses in football. And that's what he's about to get. He's about to get the best defensive mind.
- [42:52]
Chad Noma
Who.
- [42:53]
Simon Hunter
I mean, I've talked about it. This guy with extra time. We've seen this in his career. McDonald with extra time has been dominant. He's been great when he's had extra time prepared for certain teams. So I really can't wait to see. It's like it's really giving me young Belichick vibes or Bill Belichick, why he was so dominant. Obviously he had Tom Brady at these Super Bowls, but always the defense were so down because he just had so much time. His worst super bowl performance ever. Belichick, Nick Foles. Right. And that was just because as much as you want to prepare for Nick Foles, it was a total anomaly, right? The guy had the greatest game ever. So can we get burned? Can Drake may have the greatest game ever? Yeah. That's why we love the Super Bowl. These. A legend can be born here. And you know, I. I'm sure we only have like 10 Patriots fans, right? They don't listen to these type of shows. They listen to their own radio. That's what Patriots fans do. They don't want to hear outside noise. They just want to hear local radio and how great they are. But 20 of all Super Bowls, Chad, have now had the Patriots in it, which is just. That's why we hate you as a fan base. You guys are spoiled rotten and you're loud about it. So it's just when someone put that stat up now when you guys are in the super bowl, it's now you're in 20 of all super Bowls that ever existed. I just, I hate you guys so much. So I'm so happy. I really hope I don't switch to the Patriots. Right now I'm, I'm feeling pretty good dug in on this, the Seahawks side. So I'm looking forward here at Evan Abrams has to say. And I'm hoping all the trends back up what I'm feeling right now, which is this feels like a great spot for the Seahawks team.
- [44:20]
Chad Noma
So you didn't answer my question about the under and conservative game plans. Professionals are on the under right now at open 46 and a half. It's down to 46.
- [44:36]
Simon Hunter
I don't hate it. Like, again, my biggest play is gonna be on the first quarter, but again, I'm probably just. Because I'm hyping up so much, I'm probably gonna get burned by it. But I just love that play. Every year I'll ask, I'll see if Evan has any stats about the backup. My, my love for that first quarter under. But yeah, I don't hate that. I mean, my only issue here is betting it right now is I can. Can I remember a playoff? I've been burned more by weather and how bad the weather has been predicted.
- [45:02]
Chad Noma
Yeah.
- [45:03]
Simon Hunter
In an outdoor venue in Santa Clara like this could easily be 50 degrees and raining that, that game day, which will totally throw you for a loop. Or could be 65 and sunny. Like we. Again, we have no idea. It's two weeks away and it's in a rare opportunity. Right. It's an outdoor venue which we don't get much of when we talk Super Bowls. So, yeah, if, if you want to hedge against the weather and that with the professional, sure, you could take the under now, but I, I just don't want to get burned where it's perfectly sunny days. The pros come back the other way. And this is all the way up to 48 come Sunday. Right. Like, this could easily move by two, two and a half points depending on weather and what the professionals do here the next week. So, yeah, if you have to make a bet right now, I'm with Chad. If you're, if you're trying to make a bet right now, take your position on the Seahawks if that's. If you're trying to get something in right now. But for me, I'm going to be very patient with this game.
- [45:56]
Chad Noma
I bet the Seahawks minus three and a half immediately. I'm happy with that number I didn't bet as much as I wish I had. Like, I still. I wasn't. My initial instincts on this were the Seahawks are just a much better team and they've proven to be a much better team all year. I wish I had bet more on the Seahawks, although at 4, if I can get it at 4, then, you know, I'm still not losing that much in terms of I'm putting myself up for a push. But the other bet I made, I've made four bets on this game. I bet the Seahawks minus three and a half. I bet Darnold that some plus number that's come down to win mvp. I bet Rashid Shahid to win mvp.
- [46:51]
Simon Hunter
There you go.
- [46:52]
Chad Noma
Because, look, if there's going to be a long shot, I feel like special teams has been a factor for the Seahawks all season long. We've talked about their special teams being great and we've seen Shaheed make huge, huge plays. And. And we've seen, like, in games like this, if special teamers score a touchdown, very often they end up being in the mvp. And so he's been a narrative, and this is a narrative award, and people have liked to give him credit. You get him in a couple of different spots, making a big play, and he's all of a sudden, you know, in the conversation. And then I also bet Kenneth Walker over 20 and a half receiving yards because we've seen like week after week, he's getting more and more involved in their. In their past game, especially as teams are starting to bring a lot more pressure against Darnold because he's been so sort of loose with the football and they're doing a lot more checking down offensively. So those are the four bets I've made so far in this game.
- [47:54]
Simon Hunter
Chad is the greatest, better alive.
- [47:57]
Chad Noma
There we go.
- [47:58]
Simon Hunter
Now you needed.
- [47:59]
Chad Noma
I just needed that. Just a little bit of something, you know what I mean? Just a little taste of that. So here's a stat. I looked this up this morning because, you know, we've always loved bet and Mike Vrabel and we have loved betting Mike Vrabel as a dog. Mike Vrabel before this season as a dog of three points or more in his career with the Tennessee Titans was 21 and 14. Mike Vrabel this year as a dog of three points or more was two. And oh, with outright wins against the Bills and against the Ravens for all the Seahawks love. The thing that scares me most about betting the Seahawks is Mike Vrabel, because the guy manages the game so well. He never Seems to make the wrong decision. He never seems to be flummoxed in any scenario. Down to how he manages substitutions within the, within the play clock winding down, how he manages fourth and goal situations at the end of the half. We've seen him do this like he's just such a good situational coach. You got to earn it as a favorite against Mike Vrabel.
- [49:15]
Simon Hunter
He's a great coach. I just think he's, he's, he's taking this broken down car as far as it can go. Chad, that's my view of him right now where it's like he, he's that great. He fixed it, he got it over that hill. But my God, is it about to fall off like an absolute cliff. I again you never know. It's a Super bowl. Anything can happen. It's just really the more I dive into the matchup I get how good of a coach is. It's just this just feels like such an overwhelmingly bad spot for them in the sense that the Seahawks team just feels so much better. Like just across the board where the Patriots we've talked about, they just feel like they're two years early right. Like they're just. It does feel like they got here a little earlier where now when I really look at the sex team it's like no, they belong here. They're just such a great team. So I'm with you. Like it's never fun to get but against Variable I mean I didn't literally did not sleep Saturday night because I had so much money going against Ravel and it's like what am I doing? Why am I putting so much money on a backup quarterback in the playoffs? But yeah I feel like any no matter what it's never fun been against Ravel but here at a bad when he's got a bad number on this side he's a little overrated. In my mind it's little peak value for variable in this Patriots team. So that's, that's gimme a peace of mind here where it's, it's just not a good number.
- [50:24]
Chad Noma
That is like it's like saying you don't ever want to bet the Carolina Panthers on this show. So make making disparaging remarks about Mike V. Peak Mike Vrabel. Never thought I'd hear you say that. The other props that are going to be in the contest this week in addition to the sides and the totals, the first half line, first half total. We'll talk more about these as we get closer to the contest on before the game the Jackson, Smith and Jigba total touchdowns over under a half Sam Darnold passion touchdowns over under one and a half Drake May total completions over under nineteen and a half and then Ramon Dre Stevenson total rushing yards over under 53 and a half. That's already coming down like that's been getting hit really really hard by professional better. So I think it's open to 56 and in a lot of places it's already closer to 50.
- [51:19]
Simon Hunter
So will that move in the contest or it just stays as is?
- [51:22]
Chad Noma
Good question. I feel like it's going to be static, but Matt Mitchell will have to answer that for us.
- [51:28]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I believe those will stay static.
- [51:30]
Chad Noma
Static. Wow. I think, I think we know what we're doing already with that one. Listen, at the top of the show we discussed how both of these super bowl teams were preseason long shots. Related to that, we got a very nice message from a long time listener. Bryce from Phoenix wrote to say, hey guys, love the show. I've been listening since the beginning. Just want to give out a shout. Give a shout out to Chad and Simon. One piece of advice that has always stuck was to take early flyers on super bowl individual long shots, especially on teams that had bad luck the previous season and are going into the next season with cap space and good coaching. QB combos that resulted in me having both a 65 to 1 ticket that's alive in the Seahawks and a 121 ticket that's alive in the Patriots. Never been more excited to sit back and watch a game knowing that my bankroll is going to balloon by 60 or 100 plus units no matter what happens. And he did attach his tickets. He's got 50 bucks to win 3200 on Seattle and 100 to win 12,000 on New England. Good for Bryce. Thanks for the message. Bryce has a quick question for us, which we'll discuss after a quick word about our new sponsor, Z Biotics, alongside our producer Matt Mitchell. Gentlemen, only one game left this football season. I know we're all going to be having a great time watching the big game with our friends and family, making bets, pouring drinks. Despite all of our incredible good looks, we just don't bounce back like we used to. And I'm a huge morning guy. Sometimes we've had to choose between a great night or a or a great next day. That was before we tried Pre alcohol Zebiotics. Pre Alcohol Probiotic Drink is the world's first genetically engineered probiotic invented by PhD scientists to tackle rough mornings after drinking here's how it works. When you drink, alcohol gets converted into a toxic byproduct in the gut. It's a buildup of this byproduct, not dehydration, that's to blame for rough days after drinking. Pre alcohol produces an enzyme to break down this product. Just remember to make pre alcohol your first drink of the night. Drink responsibly and you'll feel your best tomorrow. Matt Mitchell, you enjoyed your experience on Sunday night, right?
- [54:23]
Simon Hunter
I sure did.
- [54:25]
Chad Noma
Bill's not playing so I was able to have a lovely, relaxed NFL Sunday with my friends and family and neighbors over enjoying it here in Wisconsin, the heaviest drinking state in the union by a lot. I love that it comes in this little fancy package. I thought they'd be like packets, but like now they come in this little package and they're not. They're not packets, they're these fancy little glass vials. Shot one down an hour before I started drinking. Enjoyed myself, had a great time, slept all night, the dreamless sleep of a Bills fan and then woke up, felt great, made pancakes, talked to my dad, really had like a surprisingly lovely cheery morning despite it being negative 1 billion degrees outside. So I loved it. I will definitely be making it part of my kind of drinking routine moving forward. Enjoy the biggest games of the season without sacrificing an incredible next day. That's what Matt Mitchell did. Start your night with ZBiotics pre alcohol and wake up clear headed, focused and better than ever. Go to zbiotics.com sharpersquare now. You'll get 15% off your first order when you use Sharper Square at checkout. Plus it's backed by a 100% money back guaranteed so there's no risk. Subscriptions are also available for maximum consistency. That's zbiotics.com sharpersquare and use the code sharpersquare at checkout for 15% off. All right, here's the question from Bryce in Phoenix. Couple of books have already posted odds for next year's Super bowl. Thoughts on Saints 100 to 1, Giants 90 to 1 Titans 121, Dolphins 200 to 1 Simon. I don't think any of those teams have the coach QB combo that would make us feel as good as Mike McDonald, Sam Darnold or Bryce or Mike Frable and Drake May.
- [56:28]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, be. I don't know. You could, you could lie to yourself and say, well I like Salah, I like Cam Ward, but I, I'm banned for talking Tennessee Titans, so I'm going to keep, keep that band going Giants. I guess you could lie to yourself and be like, well, it's year two of Dart. If you get the right coach in horrible and the right OC and they take dart to the next level. We've seen it with Drake, man. Right. That year two jump we talk about all the time. Like it just, it happens. NFL whatever it may be, it just continually happens where you have this random year two guy either makes an MVP run or a Super bowl run. It just consistently happens in the league. For me, if I'm. I'm looking at, you know, crazy long shots, I know people are going to hate it. They don't have a coach yet. Cleveland Browns are 130 to 1 now. Hear me out.
- [57:22]
Chad Noma
Oh God.
- [57:23]
Simon Hunter
If they get the creep himself back the Sean Watson, we've seen it. I know it's been 10 years or whatever, three years, but we've seen him play well enough and make a team. Take a team to the super. Another super bowl, to the playoffs and win a playoff game. And at those odds, I'm looking at all these other quarterbacks he's bunched in there with. I mean he has the same odds as Vegas. Vegas doesn't even have Mendoza at or a head coach. That's what I'm saying. It's like, I get it. I don't love Cleveland either. But if they do promote Jim Schwartz with that defense and they just have a top 15 quarterback, that's all they need. That's all that's missing for Cleveland. It could work. That to me is the only long shot I would bet on. Just because of all these guys clustered together. That's the one team I can trust and say to myself, well, that makes sense there those odds. The weirdest one to me is the Chiefs. I know it's Mahomes coming off an injury, but they're 15:1 right now. 15 to 1, the Chiefs. That, that, that does feel like an overreaction a little bit. Again, it's a lot of unknown because of my home's injury.
- [58:36]
Chad Noma
Yeah. But that's why I said it at the beginning of the show. I feel like you're gonna get value on it.
- [58:41]
Simon Hunter
I'm just shocked that I thought it was like 10 to 1. 15 to 1 feel feels a bit egregious. And if we're doing one one last long shot, I can't quit him. I really can't. Baker is 40 to 1 right now. 40 to 1 first year football. And it's like, I get it. I think we're all a little burned out on him, but I just really thought he was playing hurt that whole second half. He just never was the same. And it's like, you know, that offense, if they can just get it right defensively, I think that that Tampa team could be legit. Especially the fact they didn't win the division. So they're going to have a much easier schedule obviously next year. So just, yeah, blindly betting right now, Chiefs 15 to 1 Bucks 40 to 1 and the Cleveland Browns 130 to one of my favorite three.
- [59:28]
Chad Noma
I feel like you're completely ignoring the fact that the Cleveland Browns have a Pro bowl quarterback in Shadira Sanders and you're just immediately skipping over him and going to Deshaun Watson. It's just straight disrespect. Simon.
- [59:42]
Simon Hunter
It's true.
- [59:42]
Chad Noma
Just respect. But why this has been Sharper Square part of the Volume Podcast Network. We will be back on Thursday to talk more super bowl and super bowl trends with our buddy Evan Abrams. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like the video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify Apple Pods wherever you get your pods. Rate Review Subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.
- [60:13]
Commercial Announcer
Now the two conference champs must survive a harrowing bye week that no one enjoys. Bye weeks. Branko Nagursky didn't get no bye weeks.
- [60:26]
Chad Noma
And now he's dead. Well, maybe they're a good thing.
- [60:33]
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- [61:08]
This is Julian Edelman from Dudes on Dudes with Gronk and Jewels. Sunday mornings I've got my game day ritual, coffee, Lucky socks and now new morning Uncrustable sandwiches.
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Simon Hunter
It's all about that 12 gram protein boost with the new Uncrustables. Bright Eyed Berry or Up and apple flavors.
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Simon Hunter
Energy up an apple. Your classic do it all tight end.
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Simon Hunter
Whether you're on the couch, driving to the tailgate or heading to the locker room, New Morning Uncrustable Sandwiches are the MVP of snacks.
- [61:59]
Commercial Announcer
Your new Sunday kickoff ritual starts here with New Morning Uncrustable sandwiches packed with 12 grams of protein. Running a business is hard enough. Don't make it harder With a dozen apps that don't talk to each other. One for sales, another for inventory, a separate one for accounting. That's software overload. Odoo is the all in one platform.
- [62:22]
Simon Hunter
That replaces them all.
- [62:24]
Commercial Announcer
CRM, accounting, inventory, E Commerce, hr. Fully integrated, easy to use, and built to grow. With your business, thousands have already made the switch. Why not you try Odoo for free@odoo.com that's odoo.com if you're an H Vac.
- [62:42]
Technician and a call comes in. Grainger knows that you need a partner that helps you find the right product fast and hassle free. And you know that when the first problem of the day is a clanking blower motor, there's no need to break a sweat. With Grainger's easy to use weld website and product details, you're confident you'll soon have everything humming right along. Call 1-800-granger clickgranger.com or just stop by Granger for the ones who get it done. This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.