Sharp or Square — SUPER BOWL LX Betting Preview: Patriots vs. Seahawks

Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: January 27, 2026
Main Theme:
A deep-dive betting preview of Super Bowl LX, featuring the New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks. Chad and Simon break down all the angles: line movement, sharp vs. public action, historical Super Bowl trends, matchup narratives, prop bets, and their gambling philosophies. The episode flows with their signature wit, camaraderie, and honesty about wins, losses, and missed longshots.

Episode Overview

Main Purpose:
To break down every facet of Patriots-Seahawks from a sports betting lens—spreads, totals, props, sharp/square viewpoints, historical context—and help listeners become more “sharp” with their big game action.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Bittersweet End of Football Season

• Emotional stakes: Both hosts reflect on football’s centrality to their lives and the odd, empty feeling as the NFL season ends.
  • Notable Quote — Chad: _“Sunday afternoons during the football season are my most stressful time of the year. Those are always when my wife wants to come in and just have the longest, most detailed conversation about what's happening in our lives, in the world. And I keep having to say to her, just pretend this is my office and my office is 30 miles from our house. I am not here.” (04:02)*

2. A Super Bowl Matchup Nobody Saw Coming

• Historical rarity: Both teams were preseason longshots: Patriots at 80:1, Seahawks at 60:1 to win the Super Bowl.
• Scripts & odds: Referencing a preseason NFL promotional poster, Chad jokes the “script” was there all along.
  • Chad, 06:25: “Do you know why the Super Bowl matchup between the Seahawks and Patriots was actually scripted months ago?... That is the longest odds for a Super Bowl matchup in 50 years.”
• Underdog stories: Simon compares this to the Bengals’ long-shot run (09:06), but says the Patriots' journey is “even more shocking,” especially given Drake May’s rookie impact and the Patriots defense.

3. Key Trends, Historical Angles, and Line Movement

• Preseason odds trend broken: For over a decade, Super Bowls featured teams with short odds—this year, another exception with two massive longshots.
• Line movement breakdown:
  • Seattle opened as 3.5-point favorites, quickly moved to 5 at some books, now settled at 4.5.
  • Simon, 16:36: “I mean, I guess it's a sharp play, but... I try to be as supportive as I can be. Simon says: always blindly take the first quarter under in the Super Bowl...”
• Sharp vs. square action: Early sharp money hit Seattle -3.5; public money largely undecided, but pros leaning Seahawks at better numbers.
• Professional action: Anecdote of a $1M Patriots moneyline bet at Circa led to a debate over whether it was sharp or public.

4. Matchup Breakdowns: Offense, Defense, & Coaching

Seattle Seahawks

• Defensive dominance:
  • NFL’s best run D, lowest opponent success rate, stingy with first downs on the ground.
  • Chad, 29:57: “The Seahawks defense is just so much better than anything [Patriots] faced...The opponent success rate on runs against Seattle 34%—lowest in the league. EPA per play...minus 0.15, also lowest.”
• Concerns about Sam Darnold:
  • Darnold's QBR crashed midseason; not the reason they’re here.
  • Still, Seattle’s offense is explosive, doesn’t take the foot off the gas.
• JSN Factor:
  • Jackson Smith-Njigba’s versatility and route running are emphasized as a key matchup advantage.

New England Patriots

• How’d they get here?
  • Easier playoff path: favorable weather, backup QBs (e.g., defeated CJ Stroud in poor conditions; beat Denver's backup Jared Stidham in a blizzard).
  • Drake May’s rookie magic: high completion %, but questions remain about his weapons and protection.
  • Chad, 29:57: “You really have to believe the Patriots can level up in order to be competitive in this game.”
• Coaching edge?
  • Simon lauds Mike Vrabel as a brilliant situational coach.
  • Chad, 47:58: “You got to earn it as a favorite against Mike Vrabel.”

5. Betting Strategies & Philosophies

A. Spread and Total

• Simon’s Model:
  • Has this lined closer to Seahawks -7.
  • Simon will consider alt lines (Seattle -6.5, -7) for better value.
  • Advises if you like a dog at +4.5, always sprinkle the alt (+2.5 or ML), since Super Bowls rarely land on 1-2 points.
• Patriots Side?
  • Caution, but “blindly betting the dog” has been profitable: “If you just blindly bet the underdog in the Super Bowl since 2004, you are 15 and 7 against the spread.” (22:59)
• Total/Unders:
  • Sharps hit opening under 46.5, now 46.
  • First Quarter Under:
    • Simon’s “biggest play” for the Super Bowl; expects a slow, defensive feeling-out quarter.
    • Even if first quarter total drops to 7.5, Simon likes the under (17:37).

B. Props and Exotics

• Player Prop Strategy:
  • Defensive or special teams TD: worth a play, especially with turnover-prone QBs.
  • “First score a safety” props: likes the long odds.
• Other Props Discussed:
  • Chad is on Seahawks -3.5, Darnold at plus money for MVP, Rashid Shaheed for MVP (special teams narrative), Kenneth Walker over 20.5 receiving yards.
  • “If special teamers score a touchdown, very often they end up being in the MVP.” – Chad (46:51)

6. Mismatches, X-Factors, and Game Script Scenarios

• Seattle’s offense vs NE secondary:
  • JSN’s route-running and usage ("lining up in backfield, slot, out wide") will pressure New England’s D.
  • Christian Gonzalez is good—but hasn't seen a receiver of this caliber and usage before.
  • Simon, 40:15: “He is not in the same league as JSN...They don't have a true speedster that can stay with JSN.”
• Running Backs & Checkdowns:
  • Patriots expected to struggle running, may need May to throw deep and improvise.
  • Kenneth Walker’s pass-catching role could be key.
• Coaching Adjustments:
  • Both coaches are Coach of the Year frontrunners.
  • Expect conservative openings, heavy defense, schemes designed to minimize each QB’s mistakes.
  • “It feels like it could be an overall conservative game plan.” — Chad (38:18)

7. Listeners' Corner: Futures Advice & Long Shot Bets

• A letter from Bryce, Phoenix:
  • Listener recalls advice to take early Super Bowl long shots on teams with bad luck, cap space, coaching/QB upgrades. Cashed both Patriots (100:1) and Seahawks (65:1) futures!
  • Chad and Simon discuss possible next-year longshots:
    • Simon likes Browns 130:1 if Deshaun Watson returns healthy, acknowledges Titans, Giants, Saints, Dolphins all have fatal coaching/QB flaws.
    • Intrigued by Chiefs at 15:1 as a possible buy-low.
    • Still can’t quit Baker Mayfield at 40:1 for the Bucs.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “They have been the best team since mid November, which is about exactly when Sam Darnold’s actual performance started to crater.” — Chad (11:00)
• “Simon says: always blindly take the first quarter under in the Super Bowl.” — Simon (16:36)
• “If you just blindly bet the underdog in the Super Bowl since 2004, you are 15 and 7 against the spread.” — Simon (22:58)
• “He’s a great coach. I just think he's...taking this broken down car as far as it can go.” — Simon on Mike Vrabel (49:14)
• “You really have to believe the Patriots can level up in order to be competitive in this game.” — Chad (29:57)
• “JSN—if he wants to get his, he's going to get it against [NE]...they don't have a true speedster that can stay with JSN.” — Simon (40:15)

Timestamps for Noteworthy Segments

• Bittersweet End of Season / Super Bowl Emotions: 03:02–06:14
• Historic Long-shot Matchup, “NFL Script,” and Preseason Odds: 06:16–11:00
• Line Movement, Sharp/Square Betting, and Contest Update: 12:33–15:46
• Simon’s "First Quarter Under" Philosophy: 16:36–18:12
• Matchup, Trends, and Professional Money Discussion: 20:45–22:58
• Seattle D vs. Patriots Offense, Mismatch Analysis: 29:57–32:15
• Prop Leans, Exotics, and Alt Lines Explained: 35:36–47:53
• Listener “Bryce” & Futures Advice: 51:30–54:23
• Next-Year Super Bowl Futures Discussion: 56:28–59:28

Tone & Style

• Smart, irreverent, unvarnished: The hosts rib each other (“I need constant over the top affirmation,” Chad, 16:13), digress with personal stories, but stay focused on their sharp-vs-square analysis, emphasizing historical data, professional betting theory, and game flow.
• Accessible yet advanced: Both explain complicated concepts (alt lines, value betting, prop markets) while keeping the banter light and human.

Summary Takeaways

• Sharp consensus: Seattle is the better team, the line probably too low; sharps love -3.5 and even alternate lines.
• First quarter under: Simon’s favorite big bet—expect a conservative, nervous opening quarter.
• Underdogs have profited historically, but this might be the year coaches, defense, and offensive mismatches rule.
• Key Mismatch: Seattle’s versatile offense (especially JSN) vs. Patriots secondary and lack of offensive firepower against an elite defense.
• Props and exotics: Defensive/special teams scores and RB receiving props are attractive, as are MVP longshots driven by narrative or big plays.
• Caution: Don’t ignore weather or sharp late-money movement. Simon and Chad recommend patience unless numbers (spread, total) move against you.

Next Episode Preview:
More prop breakdowns and trend deep-dives, with guest Evan Abrams.

For those who missed it:
This episode equips bettors with context, angles, and humor for attacking Super Bowl LX, reminding everyone that, in betting as in football, “there's never a bad matchup… because we got gambling.”