Sharp or Square

Super Bowl LX Betting Recap & Reaction

Podcast: Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: February 10, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode is a comprehensive recap of Super Bowl LX from a betting perspective, hosted by betting expert Chad Millman and professional sports bettor Simon Hunter. The duo relishes a successful Super Bowl—both in betting outcomes and predictions—breaking down their picks, contest results, and reactions to the game. They invite contest winner Kingston Chen to share his approach and highlight key lessons for bettors. The tone is energetic, candid, and occasionally irreverent, with moments of friendly ribbing, storytelling, and betting wisdom.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Dominating the Super Bowl: Seattle Seahawks Analysis

• Hosts’ preseason conviction: Chad and Simon were “all in” on the Seahawks for two weeks, taking alternate lines, props, and angles that tied into Seattle’s dominance story.
  • Chad: “We kind of nailed it right from the beginning. We love Seattle from the beginning. We loved Seattle alts from the beginning.” (02:54)
• Guest picks: Shoutouts to Evan Abrams and Brandon Anderson for sharp calls, including cashing a defensive/special teams touchdown parlay.
• Seattle’s Super Bowl performance:
  • The Seahawks delivered as forecasted, dominating defensively and capitalizing on New England’s struggles.
  • Simon emphasized Darnold's mistake-free postseason: “First quarterback in NFL history, zero turnovers through the playoffs.” (22:50)
• Quarterback breakdowns:
  • Sam Darnold played a cautious game—no turnovers despite not looking sharp.
  • Drake May (Patriots) showed rookie inexperience, making key mistakes against an overwhelming defense.
• Game coaching:
  • Simon was critical of Patriots’ coaching: “I do blame Vrabel and Josh McDaniels, I think they totally got outcoached…he was playing to keep it close rather than try to win.” (21:14)

Public vs. Sharp Bets & Line Movement

• Public-heavy side, unshaken confidence:
  • Despite sharp money flowing late to the Patriots and the line movement being less dramatic than expected, Chad and Simon stayed committed to Seattle. Simon even clapped back at Patriots fans online pre-game, convinced of a blowout.
    • Simon: “There was no world, no world that would happen. That’s why I was so confident putting that out there.” (04:44)
• Market dynamics:
  • Noted how betting percentages flipped closer to kickoff, with approximately 57% on Seattle, and the rest on New England.
  • Simon: “The books could not go to six and a half, in my opinion, on the Seahawks because they would have shown their ass…potential blowout.” (28:34)

Recap of Betting Results: Contest and Hosts’ Picks

• Hosts’ contest picks:
  • Seattle -4.5 (win)
  • Under 45.5 (win)
  • Ramondre Stevenson under 53.5 rushing yards (win)
  • Drake May over 19.5 completions (win)
  • Patriots +3.5 first half (loss)
  • Went 4–1 in the Super Bowl, 60–50 overall (55% win rate for the season, which Simon calls “always good for a pro”).
• Super Bowl prop strategies:
  • Chad and Simon both hammered alternate spreads on Seattle, laddering bets up from -3.5 to -25.5 for big multipliers.
  • Simon’s “first quarter under” (8.5 points) system bet cashed again; since 2000, first quarter unders in the Super Bowl are now 18–7–2.
    • Simon: “Every year, people…put all your money into this bet every year because every year it’s a winner.” (11:40)
• Near misses and “bad beats”:
  • Chad laments missing a potentially record betting day by one play: a Kenneth Walker holding penalty negated a TD, costing him big alternate line paydays. (25:51)
  • Producer Matt relates his own “bad beat,” missing two 100-1 outcomes for exact score bets due to late Patriots scores. (34:53)

Stats, Trends, & Notable Analysis

• Evan Abrams’ stats called out:
  • Seattle’s strength of schedule: Teams with similar hardness went 8–3 in Super Bowls.
  • Teams entering the Super Bowl on 9+ straight wins and 4+ straight covers are now 4–0 both straight up and against the spread.
  • Darnold’s historic postseason passer rating.
  • Simon and Chad: “If you think Seattle’s dominant, that’s the stat you want to hear. They’re just going to roll away with this one.” (13:05)
• First quarter unders:
  • Reinforced as an evergreen bet, citing long-term historical data (see above).
• Coaching voices matter:
  • Kyle Shanahan’s rare “blowout” prediction cited as influential, especially from an active coach. (06:45, 14:47)

Contest Winner: Interview with Kingston Chen (41:40 – 45:37)

• Kingston’s picks: Focused on prop unders and totals, avoided sides due to sharp movement on Patriots.
• Strategy: Relied almost entirely on guidance from Chad and Simon, no personal modeling: “A lot of my insight…come from you guys.” (41:53)
• Luck’s role: Kingston humbly credits “luck” and the swinginess of moments like the rescinded Walker TD from his win.
• Takeaway lesson: Spot selection, discipline, and being able to resist noise is crucial—Kingston didn’t chase the side despite preseason lean.
• Appreciation for the contest: Praises the podcast and hopes for more contests.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Simon on Patriots fans before the game:
  “People say salt of the earth. I say scumbags of the earth. I mean just incredibly similar [to Philly fans] in many, many ways.” (04:44)

• Chad on trusting Seattle:
  “We loved the Seahawks for the whole two weeks, right? Like, I battered immediately at minus three and a half the second it opened.” (06:16)

• Simon on first quarter Super Bowl unders:
  “Since 2000 in the Super bowl first quarter unders now 18, 7 and 2…every year it’s a winner.” (11:40)

• Evan Abrams on dominant teams:
  “Teams, nine straight wins, four straight covers, four, zero straight up four zero against the spread in the Super Bowl...If you think Seattle’s dominant, that’s the stat you want to hear.” (13:05)

• Simon on recency bias:
  “I am one of those people. I don’t remember my wins. I remember Every loss. And that's what's going to hurt me in this offseason. I'm gonna be sitting there...the damn Tennessee Titans.” (10:22)

• Chad on “bad beat” swings:
  “If the Patriots don’t get that garbage touchdown...I’m having maybe the best weekend I’ve ever had as a better in my entire life.” (25:51)

• Contest winner Kingston on betting:
  “I mean, it comes down to luck, right?... As easily as I won the contest, I could have just also easily lost.” (44:10)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [02:42] — Super Bowl recap intro; early lean on Seattle, game prediction talk.
• [04:20] — Simon’s troll of Patriots fans and his callout pre-game.
• [06:16] — Chad bets Seattle at open; discussing contest line movement concerns.
• [09:40] — Breakdown of their Super Bowl bets and season-long contest performance.
• [11:40] — System betting: First quarter unders, Super Bowl trends.
• [12:47] – [14:03] — Evan Abrams' stats breakdown and predictive trends.
• [16:59] — Detailed game analysis: coaching, injuries, why Patriots didn’t stand a chance.
• [22:20] — Seahawks kept Darnold out of positions to lose the game; Patriots’ coaching blown.
• [25:51] — Bad beat stories with alternate line bets and missed paydays.
• [34:53] — Producer Matt’s “bad beat” with exact outcome bets.
• [41:40] — Contest winner interview: Kingston Chen's method and mindset.

Final Takeaways & Lessons

• Trust your process: Chad and Simon’s confidence in their read was reinforced, despite late sharp action in the opposite direction.
• Props and alts add value: Smart prop and alt-line betting—based on a strong narrative read—delivered the biggest payouts.
• First quarter under is almost “auto-bet” in modern Super Bowls.
• Don’t get hung up on near-misses: Even pros recall the bad beats more than the wins; it's part of betting psychology.
• Community & learning: Contest winner Kingston proves that consistent, engaged listening and disciplined pick selection can win—no secret models required.

Episode Tone & Style

• Candid, energetic, and loaded with inside jokes, trash talk, and real betting insight.
• Blends emotional highs/lows of betting with sharp, actionable advice.
• Hosts openly share their thought process—successes and regrets alike—creating a relatable, entertaining recap.

For more:
Watch/listen to the full show on YouTube (@SharpOrSquare), find new episodes every Tuesday and Thursday, and keep an eye out for special offseason analysis, NFL futures, and more betting wisdom from Chad and Simon.