Sharp or Square — Super Bowl LX Betting Trends with Evan Abrams

Podcast: Sharp or Square | iHeartPodcasts & The Volume
Episode Date: January 29, 2026
Host(s): Chad Millman, Simon Hunter
Guest: Evan Abrams (Director of Research & Media, Action Network)

Episode Overview

This Super Bowl preview episode dives deep into betting trends, historical data, and the nuances of Super Bowl LX with special guest Evan Abrams, a leading sports betting researcher. Hosts Chad Millman (betting expert) and Simon Hunter (professional sports gambler) set aside some heated NFL coaching and Hall of Fame controversies to focus on actionable wisdom for Super Bowl bettors. The conversation centers on which trends matter, how to evaluate teams and props based on data, and how narratives impact everything from MVP votes to market movement.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. NFL News & Hot Takes ([00:30]–[09:17])

• Recent Coaching Moves and Offseason Drama:

  • Chad vents about the hiring of Joe Brady (Bills), Todd Monken (Browns), and the situation in New England with rookie QB Drake May’s shoulder injury. The Browns’ dysfunction and Monken’s questionable hiring are a highlight:

    “You fire a head coach and you downgraded somehow. ... It’s crazy.” — Chad [07:20]

• Bill Belichick Hall of Fame Snub:

  • Both hosts are incensed that Belichick didn’t make it in, blaming petty voters and old rivalries:

    “Dumb sports writers cannot get out of their own way.” — Chad [03:47]
    “If he’s not [a first-ballot Hall of Famer], what are we doing here?” — Simon [06:41]

  • They link his media frostiness and the Patriots’ cheating controversies as partial causes for the snub.

2. Super Bowl LX Early Betting Market Moves ([09:53]–[13:04])

• The line is moving based on rumors around Drake May’s (Patriots QB) injury, with pros and sharps starting to favor the Seahawks and lean to the under on the total.

  • Professional money: Early on both Seahawks and the under, but not heavily loading yet due to uncertainty.
  • Total dropping:

    “Professional money has come in once again on the under. ... Down to 45.5.” — Simon [10:49]

• Market Caution: No strong “hammer” advice from the sharpest bettors yet; this is an information-gathering week.

3. Introducing Evan Abrams: Making Sense of Trends ([14:59]–[22:09])

• Trends vs. Stats: The Only Trends that Matter
  • Evan and the hosts discuss the value of trends, with Evan explaining how “on-field” trends (e.g., young QBs facing particular defensive coordinators) have much more substance than broad historical ATS records.
  • Simon agrees:

    “If I already like a side and multiple trends lean to that side as well, that’s gonna send off alarm bells.” — Simon [21:06]

  • Key point: Use trends to consolidate and share insights, not to drive all decisions.

4. Super Bowl Betting Trends & What Matters ([22:51]–[33:18])

Spread, Outright, and Historical Angles

• Underdogs in Super Bowls:

  • Since Super Bowl 30 (last 30 years):

    “16 games that have closed 4.5+ points, dogs are 12-2-2 ATS ... but have only won 7 outright." — Evan [23:06]

  • Implication: If betting the spread, don’t bank on outright upsets; Seattle by 1–6 points is an interesting “middle” prop.

• Conference Championship ATS Trends:

  • Since 1970 merger, teams failing to cover in the conference title game are 4–10 straight-up, 2-11-1 ATS in the Super Bowl.

    “It’s probably a little bit of a predictive element ... the team that didn’t cover ... maybe not power-rated as high.” — Evan [26:26]

• Evaluating Strength of Schedule:

  • Only 11 of 120 Super Bowl teams had a harder schedule than this year’s Seahawks; those teams went 8–3 in the Super Bowl.

    “That’s a good stat. ... The Patriots side is getting attention, but it’s the Seahawks and who they’ve had to go through.” — Evan/Simon [32:10–32:32]

• Seattle’s Momentum:

  • Seattle enters the Super Bowl on a 9-game win streak, with 4 straight covers; such teams have gone 4–0 SU and ATS in previous Super Bowls.

    “If you think Seattle’s dominant, that’s the stat you want to hear.” — Evan [47:39]

• Matchup Angles:

  • Mike Macdonald's defense vs. Young QBs: In last two years, QBs under 25 facing Macdonald are 1–9 SU with 12 INTs and 30 sacks—a direct shot at Patriots’ rookie Drake May.

    “That stat’s a little alarming to me from a New England standpoint.” — Evan [49:19]

• Patriots as Underdogs:

  • When underdogs this year, the Patriots average 26 points/game, and are 4–2 SU/ATS. Some context: one big win was helped by a Lamar Jackson injury. Still, McDaniels schemes matter with extra prep. [51:41–52:10]

5. How to Bet the MVP Market ([39:23]–[44:47])

• Value in Super Bowl MVP:

  • JSN (Jaxon Smith-Njigba): At ~5:1, a rare short price for a WR, reflecting his strong season and game-breaking ability.
  • Drake May: At +240 for MVP, a very short price for an underdog QB; historically only three such cases under 3:1 since 2003, and it may not represent value.

    “I feel like Darnold and Najigba [JSN] good value on the super bowl MVP. I don’t think it’s so with Drake May.” — Evan [41:34]

  • General MVP Tip: If you like the Seahawks to win, better value often lies in betting Sam Darnold for MVP rather than betting the moneyline.

• What Receivers Need:

  • Multiple TDs and/or a “God moment” play to win MVP; otherwise, almost always goes to QB.

6. Actionable Bets & Sharp Props ([52:26]–[54:19])

• Evan Abrams’ Early Bets:
  • Drake May Over 29.5 Rush Yards (bet early, market up to 38+ now).
  • Stefon Diggs Under 18.5 Longest Reception: Diggs is being used as a short-yardage target in this offense.
  • Seattle First Half & Full Game ML Parlay (+130/+140): Seattle’s fast starts and full-game dominance vs. poor odds on ML alone.
  • First Quarter Under (7.5/9.5): Historically a high-win bet; Super Bowl first quarters tend to start slow (~60% hit rate last two decades).

    “First quarter unders in the Super Bowl are something like 58 to 60% over the last decade or two.” — Evan [53:50]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Hall of Fame pettiness:

  “Acting like you are the steward for some legacy is so fucking dumb. ... It actually makes me so mad, and stupidly so, because like, who should get mad about this, right?” — Chad [05:18]

• On the role of trends:

  “Trends and stats, Chad, they’re literally no different. You’re just trying to paint your picture the best way you can.” — Simon [20:31]

• On Super Bowl betting consolidation:

  “If people are coming to the show and they already trust what we’re saying, then the trend just sort of puts it in a neat package.” — Chad [22:09]

• On Seattle’s hot streak:

  “Only four other teams have done that—9 straight [wins] and 4 straight [covers]—and those teams are 4–0 straight up, 4–0 against the spread in the Super Bowl.” — Evan [47:39]

• On Seahawks O-line and rookie communication:

  “One of my favorite things ... was Gray Zabel and Leonard Williams ... Zabel says, ‘Stop using your spin move ... slide into the B gap, you’ve got a straight line to the quarterback.’ ... Williams does that on the next drive and sacks the quarterback.” — Chad [33:18]

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• NFL Coaching/HoF Rant — [00:30]–[09:17]
• Sharp Calls: Injury & Market Moves — [09:53]–[13:04]
• Trend Philosophy with Evan Abrams — [14:59]–[22:09]
• Super Bowl ATS and Historical Trends — [22:51]–[33:18]
• On-Field Matchups & Strength of Schedule — [32:10]–[33:18], [49:10]–[50:12]
• Super Bowl MVP Betting Strategies — [39:23]–[44:47]
• Evan’s Favorite Bets and Props — [52:26]–[54:19]

Overall Takeaways

• The pros are leaning toward Seattle and the under, but with caution due to potential personnel news and line inflation.
• Seattle has powerful historical and matchup trends in their favor, especially given their streaks of wins and covers, and their strength of competition en route to the Super Bowl.
• Drake May’s injury status and inexperience versus Seattle’s defense present major red flags for the Patriots.
• Prop markets (MVP, longest reception, first quarter under) offer edges for those looking beyond the standard sides and totals.
• Trust “on-field” trends (e.g., coordinator-vs-QB dynamics, real strength of schedule) more than generic long-term ATS records or “feel-good” narratives.

Final Words

“If you just blindly bet the dog in the Super Bowl, you’re going to do pretty well. ... But you don’t want to do that here. ... This is a different dog than dogs of the past.” — Simon [28:49]

“That [stat] is a little alarming to me from a New England standpoint.” — Evan (on Macdonald’s defense vs. young QBs) [49:19]

The episode is a data feast for bettors seeking actionable angles—and also a spirited, comedic takedown of NFL (and sportswriter) politics, told in the snarky, insightful voice of seasoned insiders.