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- [00:00]
A
This is an iHeart podcast.
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Guaranteed Human. Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Bat. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Melman. I am joined, as always, by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff, Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
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Chad. How we doing, brother?
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B
This is our Thursday super bowl preview episode, the first of two Thursday preview episodes. So next week we will dig in a little bit more on where we stand with final bets and, you know, any more of our named bets, like Simon says, which we already did, but we'll get into a chat's choice and our brass balls, you know, rocking a hard place, etc. We do have a very special guest today, which I will get to in a minute. Since we last spoke, Joe Brady, the new head coach of the Buffalo Bills. Todd Monken, the new head coach of the Cleveland Browns, where he gets to coach a Pro bowl quarterback and Shador Sanders, or. Or a guy who hasn't thrown a vertical pass unless it was to a masseuse in like a decade, Deshaun Watson. We are also getting news out of New England that Drake May has a vague shoulder injury and was limited in practice. A lot of shit going on, man. Apparently it's in vogue when you can't find a head coach who wants to coach your team. To just grab a guy who's been a mediocre offensive coordinator but had won a national championship in college recently and.
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A
You didn't even bring up. Are you the ultimate hater, Chad? Are you a hater? Should Bella Belichick been a first ballot hall of Famer?
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B
Of course. That's so fucking stupid. I completely forgot about that.
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A
Fellas, I am sick of this, okay?
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C
I can't stand much more of this.
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A
It's a joke. It's a joke.
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B
It's so stupid. These guys, you know, it's funny. My kid texted me as soon as it happened. And then Seth and Don Van Atta, two close buddies of ours, broke the story about Belichick not making it. And, you know, at first they had the news about Polian saying he had to wait a year. And now Polian is saying I couldn't remember who I voted for. Now he's saying the hall of Fame confirmed that I did vote for Belichick. There was a reporter from the Kansas City Star who wrote that he decided to vote in Ken Anderson and Roger Craig and Sarah. Someone else I forgot who, who was on the veterans Committee who was on the veterans list because he felt that was their last chance. And Belichick, he thought would get in, someone else would vote him in. My sense is that's probably what happened is there were 11 dudes who just thought, ah, someone else would do it. Right. They were just complacent and figured someone else is gonna take care of this. And then everyone thought that and Belichick didn't get in. But how idiotic is this?
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A
You want to talk about the game?
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B
We're not going to get it on.
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A
Post game analysis here. I've had enough of that.
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B
I don't even like Bill Belichick, but the guy's got eight Super Bowls. As a head coach and assistant coach, he built brilliant game plans. He changed the way people think about situational football. He was one of the first guys to start going forward on fourth downs. He was one of the guys who would take safeties instead of punting from the back of it, you know, from, from deep in his territory when they were up by a certain amount of points. Like how dumb Simon.
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A
Oh yeah, we got him. Yeah, we'll see. We'll see who's got who.
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B
Dumb sports writers cannot get out of their own way sometimes.
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A
Not that I saw it coming. But you knew there was a possibility just because to, to me, who's a top three receiver was not a first ballot hall of Famer because of how he treated members in the media and they wanted to get back at him. And Bill Belichick was not the best with the media his whole entire career. And he know some guys were going to hold that against them at some point. But the cheating stuff, as much as New England fans want to push back against it, Chad, in the 50, his 50 year history, 60 year history of the NFL, you name me a team that was accused and then prosecuted twice for cheating. This is very short. It's only the Patriots. It's only Bill Belichick run team. So I get it. Everyone's cheating in the NFL. Everyone's trying to. If that's your reasoning for not voting them in, you're bitter about it because you think he stole a couple Super Bowls because he cheated. All right, do what you got to do. But I was in shock. I could not believe it. They didn't put Belichick, who has the most super bowl rings as a head coach and all of it into the hall of Fame. So yeah, we talk all the time. The world is very petty. It does not not get any less petty when you head to the NFL. These Old guys voting in people. So Bill Polian speaking like that about Belichick, just rub me the wrong way. Like, this guy, I. I don't know. I'm glad. He's probably gonna lose his vote now. I've seen the NFL send out a letter. They're about to take away a bunch of people's votes. Hopefully Bill Pulling is one of them. It's like, dude, get. Get this guy out of the sport.
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B
It's so. You see this all the time with hall of Fame votes. You see it with baseball, too, where guys like Derek Jeter won't be unanimous entries into the hall of Fame in their first year because there's some holier than thou precious douchebag asshole who decides I'm gonna be the one who's the steward of the Hall. It's so idiotic. It's like there are things to take seriously about sports writing. As someone who has been doing this for 30 years, as someone who did it at Sports Illustrated, at espn, I ran the magazine. I ran ESPN Digital. We started action. Like, I have lived in the Capital J trenches for a very long time. There are things to take seriously about sports writing. You don't want to lie. You don't want to make shit up. You want it to be good craftsmanship. You want to do things that are fair. You want to be of high quality. Acting like you are the steward for some legacy is so fucking dumb. I. I just. I can't get behind it. It actually makes me so mad and stupidly so, because, like, who should get mad about this, right?
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There's bigger things made me mad because it just. It just look for something we take serious as football fans, which is the hall of Fame. I take the hall of Fame serious. And this, to me, it's a. It's a. It's a bad look. This is a. This is a black mark on the hall of Fame. And I think the NFL knows that. That's why they put out that letter. It's like, hey, we're going to look into the people who vote here, because that's embarrassing. The. The best coach in the 21st century should be a first ball of Famer. If he's not, what are we. What are we doing here? So I knew that would have you fired up as soon as you broke it down. I was like, well, Chad, bring it up now for me again, very quick. The Browns thing. I feel so bad for Browns fans.
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B
My God, nobody wants that job.
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No one wants that job. Jim Schwartz now has left the building being like, I I can't believe how disrespected I was. I'm leaving as well. And, yeah, it's. My God, I just. Again, I feel so bad for the Browns fans. You. You. You fire a head coach and you downgraded somehow. It's. It's crazy.
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B
Nobody wants that job. There were stories about the interview process and being data driven and how onerous it was, and they just seem like an organization where I don't know if the GM is conducting some kind of experiment where he has the owners in some kind of Stockholm syndrome, but Jesus fucking Christ. The only thing that was working in that building was the defense. The only thing that made any sense was keeping Miles Garrett happy. You have no quarterback, so what does it matter if you get an offensive genius or a defensive genius? You're not going to do anything on that side of the ball because they are completely incapable of being effective offensively. So what do they do? They hire a mediocre offensive coordinator who the other team's owner that they stole him from had been trying to fire for years, and the only blocker was the head coach. That's the main reason why Harbaugh left. He wouldn't want to fire Monket. Now he doesn't get monkey at the Giants, and Monk is going to the Browns. If I'm the Ravens, I'm like, fuck, yeah. It's one less team we got to worry about in the division.
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A
This is amazing. I think. I think this is the most fired up I've ever had, Chad. This is the most Chad's ever cursed to start a podcast in our history. No doubt about it, I was. This is blowing me away. You've been hanging out with sailors, Chad. You were just dropping F bombs left and right this morning.
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B
I'm so sick of incompetence, man. I'm so sick of public incompetence.
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A
That's the world we live in now, brother.
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B
It just drives me nuts. It really does. We got to get into it.
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A
Yeah.
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Because we got a huge guest. Huge, huge guest. You want to talk about pettiness in the hall of Fame? We're the opposite of that. We don't do petty here on Sherper Square.
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We don't burn bridges, Chad.
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We don't. We. We love all of our friends. You're going to subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple, Pod, Spotify. Before we get to our guests, let's get into this thing. Every week, we're going to give out our picks. We started doing it for the Super Bowl. Every week, the Wise guys are going to give Simon an ear feel about what we are saying. Let's get to sharp calls.
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A
I have to answer this phone. All right. Ring, ring, telephone ring. Somebody said, baby, what you doing? I wish I could have more exciting news, but I think Chad started the top of the show with the big news. Right. It's the Drake May is he got a bum shoulder injury and it would explain a lot if he did. Right. Because it's the throwing didn't make sense and you look back and it's like, well, he did take huge hits like that. There's no doubt about it. He got popped and he could have injured that shoulder. Sure. They are being very hush hush about it. So I would say most pros I talked to after our Tuesday show before the news had really broke were like, I'm. I'm really going to lean into heavily this, this New England side. They, they were. I feel like that was starting to become the professional side now. It's what it was. We talked on Tuesday where it's a very split side. But you have seen more money coming on the under from professionals even though the public has just been hammering the over.
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Yeah.
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Professional money has come in once again on the under.
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B
So down to 45 and a half.
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Yeah. So I, I think most guys are like me where it's like, all right, I'll take that position right early here. It's. I'm not rushing to bet big amounts yet just because I want to have more facts. But it's someone that was leaning towards yonder and leaning towards Seattle. I really like both those positions now and I would say that the pros I do know that are hammering the Seahawks now. They're just doing it just in case it does come out that he does have a bum shoulder.
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C
Right.
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I think the injury report's really wonky with super bowl week. Like they don't really have to put anything official. They can just put limited at practice or, you know, whatever they want to do. It's. It's really going to be about breaking down, getting news from sources inside the media. So that's what's gonna be really fun to watch and follow these next couple weeks and every little thing. If, you know media, Dave, if Drake make doesn't lift up his arm above his head, everyone's gonna be going wild. That's what we're about to be dealing with here next week. So this is, this week is always the calm before the storm.
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B
Right.
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A
This is before media gets the super bowl row. This is really this like I said, coming in this week, it's a week where people are just talking about the quarterbacks and the coaching staff. So the other teams that didn't make the playoffs, where most pros I talked to betting this week, it's like, yeah, I like this side, but I'm in no rush. Right. I really, I'm being patient or take a position. So once again, it might, it could change next week. My early liens, like most professionals right now, are the, the Seahawks and the under and I would say the professional side once again. Before the Drake May news came out, it was looking like it was really going to be the Patriots. I, again, we, we're going to talk so much about this game. I'll get more into that. But it's, it's really about the defense in Sam Darnold, which is a lot of pros I've talked to hanging on that kind of trend where it's like, you're, you're putting too much faith into Sam Darnold after one great game, which is fair. So like I said, it's gonna be a fun game to keep breaking down this week, but I know, I wish you come here in sharper, sharp calls and be like, no, the pros are saying, hammer the Patriots. None of that. None of that talk. None of that. Even guys who are confident on the Seahawks are not telling me to bankroll them heavily. It's. It's really just about taking that position now because you might get a better number than later on. So, yeah, pretty, pretty timid week here. Maybe we'll do sharp calls again next week, see what, what's changed.
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B
Yeah, I think we will. I'm like, you know, I took a position on the Patriots at three and a half. I mean, on the Seahawks at three and a half. I bet the Patriot, I bet the Seahawks again at four and a half just because the juice was still at minus 110 at one book and it was moving at minus 112, minus 15 at other books. So I just wanted to get minus 110 because it looked like it was going up. Now it's pretty much minus 115 everywhere and heading to that 5. It's really been moving since the last 24 hours from the Trach me news. Surprise. It hasn't moved more, but also it just could be. This is the week off and, you know, we'll get more activity next week when, when the bets start coming in and we start to get more intel on, on Drake May. All right, listen. Every year in the lead up to The super bowl re record a very popular episode. We're going to dive into the betting trends and data of the super bowl to see what the past can tell us about this year's matchup. Lots of listeners asked if we do it again this year, and thanks to today's guest, we can, and we are. Let's bring him in. He's the original betting researcher, my original betting researcher, our longtime friend, collaborator, colleague, the only person name checked on this show more than Bryce Young from our old podcast Home Action Network, director of research and media, Evan Abrams. Who says. Who says we're petty? Not us. Not us, brother. Evan Abrams. Finally, we get to see the face with the name.
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Honestly, I'm shocked that we're not. We're just not going to talk. Belichick and Stefanski, more like. That's not what we're doing here. I figured we would just go into that more because I had a lot to say. But we have a big game, so let's get into the nuts and bolts of it. But I mean, that Belichick thing, the thing that kills me the most, and I'll just. I'll just leave it here. I'll say one thing. It hurts the coaches next year, too, because you got, like, Mike and all these other people kind of slated to be in there, and now it's Belichick's time. A year later, it's just a maths. All right, Super Bowl.
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Hold on, hold on. Let me ask you a question, by the way.
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C
Yeah.
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B
Evan, also an Indiana University alumnus. Congratulations to you, my friend.
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C
Congratulations to us.
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Congratulations to us for living it, breathing it, being it, having the greatest week of our lives. I don't know if I even said this to Simon. Did I say this on Tuesday's show? Like, I was at a party on Saturday night? And constantly the whole. It was the greatest night of my life because. Because I don't really like to go to parties. And the whole night, all anybody wanted to talk to me about was Indiana. So I got to relive the experience over and over and over again. The only guy who didn't want to talk to me about Indiana happens to be a dude who just coincidentally grew up in my hometown in Highland park and lives around the corner from me. He's older than I am, but I graduated from high school with his sister, so I know him a little bit. He's a massive Cubs fan and a massive Bears fan. So I turned around, I was talking to a guy about Indiana, and as soon as I turned around, I saw this guy and he's like, dude, Alex Bregman. And so then we just spent 35 minutes talking about the Bears and the Cubs. And then I got to talk about Indiana some more. And someone said to me, and I said to someone, I think it might be the happiest week of my life. And they're like, that's saying something like professional accomplishments, you know, family, whatever. Here was my comment. Those other things, you know, we sold action. That was amazing, right? But it also comes with so much relief because you work so hard, you're nervous, you don't know what's going to happen. You get married, Evan, you know this. Simon, one day you will know this. Like, it comes with a lot of joy. You're so happy. But there's also like anxiety and fear. Same with kids. Like, oh my God, this is amazing. But you're also like, holy fuck. This was just unfettered joy. I had no expectations. I didn't have to do anything. I just had to receive the happiness and that's it. And it is. I'm still, I'm still coming down from it. Like I'm still texting with Matt and Andy about things we've been buying since, since, since the, since Indiana won the title. Evan, congrats. Thank you.
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C
Congrats to you as well. I mean, I've had people reach out to me wanting to go to like the game next year. Like people are trying to buy tickets to go to Bloomington. Like, this is, this is just next level. So I can't wait.
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B
All right, here's my question for you. Yeah, we talk about trends all the time. I love the trends, but I give Simon a hard time about this sometimes trends without telling me which ones are more important and I should lean into, just feel like they can be confusing and too much and I can find a trend to back anything and just have a self fulfilling prophecy. I need you to tell me why I should believe some trends and which ones are more important to me.
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C
Personally. In my opinion, I am the best storyteller. I say like, I can really push you any direction you want to go.
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B
And I don't want to go a direction I want you.
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C
I know, I know.
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B
Whoa.
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C
I'm trying to set up here. Okay, so you want to deal with Evan.
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This guy is brutal.
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C
He's just on top. I mean. Okay, so listen, listen. I think the setup is, is the more on field trends like the one about young quarterbacks versus Mike McDonald, I feel like that has more sustenance, more substance than maybe some of the others. Like the underdog stuff of the past, which we can go into a second. I think that's somewhat intriguing. Like maybe the favorites are getting inflated, etc. Etc. But those are previous games. Like, it's fun to talk about, but I do feel like the on field stuff, like there's something fun about the total when you look at how fast these teams play. Like there's certain trends like that on field that I think you would call like level one and then a lot of the other stuff, Level two, level three. But to me, if you're going to focus on anything, it's all of the stats that are like the. Well, I think it's the Seahawks who haven't allowed like a hundred yard rusher in like 25 games. Those are the things. Yeah. Or 27 games. So those are the stats to me, you hold in level one and then all the other stuff kind of gets mixed in below. Like I can the 1 in 17 stat when a team has a better win percentage entering the super bowl than their opponent. Pretty damn shocking, except for the fact that this year it's the Patriots because they've played an extra game. So it's like, okay, that's a stat, but who, who really cares about that? So, so it's not really one I've used when talking about this game because I think you need to be a little educated and find out what's important and just weed out the rest. So you're right. But that's why I also feed you goddamn everything.
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B
I love it. That is such a good answer. I miss Evan Simon.
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A
Trends and stats, Chad, they're literally no different. When you give out stats, you're doing the exact same thing. You're saying, well, these are meaningful stats. No, they're not. You're just trying to paint your picture the best way you can. So the same thing with trends, I, I, as much as I get where you're coming from with trends, I try to give them out because it's an easier way for the general public to break down and comprehend different things than it is if I just hit you with get off speed stats of D lineman or block rates of offensive lineman. That just goes one year out the other. But if I can tell someone, hey, this team here, the Patriots in this spot are 1 in 8 historically over the last 60 years. That's just so much easier to digest. That's why, again, I'm not saying I'm dumbing it down for the audience, but I'm dumbing it down for myself where it's like, it kind of pulls you back in where it's like, stop overthinking this stuff. Look at the historical trends. So that's why I love what Evan does, right? He. He finds little nuggets that you would never think of, and it kind of changes your mindset. It's like, well, I didn't think of that way. I didn't look at the game that way. So that's the thing. I. I'm like, huge. I don't live in dial trends. Are they 20 of the equation for me, maybe a little less. But it's just something for me that if I already like a side and multiple trends lean to that side as well, that's going to send off alarm bells where it's like, okay, there is something to this historically. So that's why I love what Evan does. Again, Evan puts in some tough work because I've tried to dive into the trends, Evan, since we lost you, buddy. And it's a lot of digging through a lot of. Right. There's a lot of dumb trends out there and trying to find the ones that are meaningful and actually have some good data behind it. It's. It's not easy. So, once again, hat tip to you, buddy. Really love what you do.
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C
I'm like Bob Ross. That's what I said. I'm just painting you a picture.
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B
I like Simon. I like the way you just framed it, though. That is a good way to consolidate a shitload of information. And if people are coming to the show and they already trust what we're saying, then the trend just sort of puts it in a neat package that people can share that data, they can do it in a conversation, but also is a little bit of a good summary of why we're leaning one way or the other. Okay. I'm more accepting now, Evan. Make us smarter. Make me feel good about the Seahawks right now or. Or tell me it's not too late and I got to go to the Patriots, but give me something.
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C
I mean, from this top, I feel like. So I guess the biggest point of conversation when you talk at the top of the spear would be the success of underdogs in the super bowl recently. But to me, that's not going to make you feel good about Seattle, but to me, it's. Again, it's just the past. It has very little to do, most likely, with this game, aside from the fact that the line, if you think it's inflated, right? Like, if you think the super bowl should be three, but it's sitting at four. And a half. Seattle winning the game by three and you covering the spread has been something that's happened historically, right? So if you go back 30 years, going back to Super Bowl 30, we've only seen 16 games that have closed four and a half or more. The underdog is 12, two and 12, two and two ATS in those games. But I believe the underdog, but I believe the underdogs only won seven of those games outright. So what tends to happen is like what happened in that Rams, Bengals, super bowl, right line, four and a half game ends on three. So I, I think if you're betting New England, I think it's not even about can we win the game? Because basically in that scenario it's happening 45, 40% of the time. What it's saying is, is how close can we be in the game and can you get inside that zone. So I think a lot of people out there are even looking at Seattle to win the game by one to six points. You're getting a much better line. And if you think it's going to be a tight one and Seattle comes away with it. I've heard that bet out there before.
- [24:20]
B
I like that. Seattle one to six points. And Simon, we talked the other day taking some outlines on Seattle because you know, you, you said you have this game power rated closer to six and a half or seven. So that feels like the one to six kind of feels like a good middle ground. And we get that opportunity with the super bowl that we don't normally get with some of these regular season games.
- [24:47]
A
Yeah, that's, I mean, you pretty much know my point of if you're going to be betting this one on the Seahawks especially, you're betting on a blowout. Honestly, like if you, if you do think they're going to win this game, it's just these, if these type of big spreads, it's either going to be a really close one, like Evan just said, or what I think the seal should just roll this team just across the board offensively, defensively. So that's something I'm going to keep talking about betting the alt lines, right? The minus six and a half. If you don't want to bet the minus 150 and the four and a half, there really is no, like the odds of this landing on 4 on 5 are so small. Like it just does not happen NFL historically, like even going to the regular season. So to me, that's why I talked about that. The -6 and a half eat down some of that juice if you want but like I said, I got no issue betting the minus four and a half, but I just, I like betting the outlines.
- [25:35]
B
Like Chad said, Evan, you have an interesting stat and I would encourage everybody, if they want to be the smartest people at this year's super bowl party. Check out Evan's annual article, the action Super Bowl 60 betting primer. You've probably seen all the stats all over Twitter because it gets stolen from but and never credited. But we're crediting it here. You know why? All class.
- [26:08]
A
You're the best.
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C
You're the best.
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B
All not the best. Classiest. The New England Patriots did not cover in the conference championship game. The Seattle Seahawks did cover in the conference championship game. What is the trend we need to be looking out for in that scenario?
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C
Yeah, I found this kind of intriguing. So since the NFL merger in 1970, teams to fail to cover the spread in the conference championship game are four in 10 straight up to 11 and one against the spread in the Super bowl, that is the New England Patriots. Since Seattle did cover against the Rams, I was worried there in those final few minutes looking at the math of that Rams Seahawk again being like Seattle really going to win this game by two points and now both aren't going to cover. But that of course did not happen. So I find it just intriguing because it's probably a little bit of a predictive element in just the fact that the team that didn't cover the conference championship maybe not power rated as high, maybe not playing as well, but I would also say they are usually probably a little bit of a bigger favorite. Right. I would have assumed the teams in that spot had been favored by six or seven points and won by three or four versus three and a half and win by three. So I think this year it's a little cherry picky, but I also think there is a tiny bit of a predictive element to it. So I found that kind of intriguing.
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A
Yeah, a little bit of it's the line swung seven points because of a quarterback injury, which is also incredibly rare. And immediately, like I said, every pro I know is like that. That moved way too much and the, the, the books are about to get crushed. If, if people sharpened up and took that Denver side, lucky for them, they kept hammering the Patriots. Right. They're like, well, it's a backup quarterback. Why would I not hammer Drake M. So it, it's, I'm, I'll look more into that set because that is interesting stat where it's like what, what were the circumstances leading up to that where did the one team become overrated? Like me and Chad talked about the rams, they went 0 and 3 in the playoffs against the spread. That also has never happened before. Right. So it was like, yeah, they did become too heavily inflated. Overrated. As we ended towards the end of the season, you know, are we saying that's the same here with this Patriots team? No. Right. They covered their first two games, but that last game, it felt right on the number. And me and Chad joke they easily, because I lost that game as well. So we have hit a point where the Patriots have started to become a little overrated at this point. So to me, like I talked about, when you're getting out these stats, if you just blindly bet the dog of the super bowl, like Evan said, you're going to do pretty well. But you don't want to do that here. Right. You want to. You really want to dive into this week because this is a different dog than dogs of the past. This is not some dog that nobody believes in or, you know, they're totally left for dead. Right. This is a little different circumstance.
- [28:49]
B
You guys have both brought up something really interesting. Could a team be overvalued? Could a team be undervalued when it gets to this point in the season? And it's hard to imagine that they could be because we've now got, what, 20 games, 21 games that these teams have played. But the season changes so much. Simon, we've talked about, have we reached peak Patriots? I don't know that we've reached peak Seahawks. Break it down a little bit more about the power ratings. You said you have this game six and a half, seven. Like, is that based on the Seahawks improving their power rating as we got to the end of the year? And their defense, forget about Darnold. Their defense just started to get much better.
- [29:37]
A
That and downgrade in other teams. Right. Like moving the Rams down like I talked about coming in the playoffs. And the biggest thing for me, what I look for in the playoffs is, is a team just simply rolling teams. Like, are they just literally dominant teams like the Eagles last year? Right, The Eagles, you could say, well, they had a slow game a little bit against Green Bay or the Rams, but then Washington, they really took off. And then you saw that carry into the. The game against the Chiefs. Obviously, this Seahawks team has just been an absolute roll, especially in the playoffs. Right. They dominated the 49ers that Rams game. Yeah. You can't say they dominated. Right. Their defense had some laps, but offensively they rolled. They were great. Offensively, so those are things I'm looking for when I'm betting a big number this big. I want to see a team that's rolling not just offensively, defensively, special teams. And they. They fit all that criteria. Now, like, honestly, you could say the. The biggest question is Sam Darnold, and he's coming off his best game we've seen in his career. So that, to me, it's like, that's giving me more confidence because it's. We talk all the time. These guys all have the talent. Do they have the right headspace? Right. Is he in the right headspace? And he seems like he's in it. Like, I don't know if you saw clips from the game. Do you watch the NFL, like, Mike Dub chat at all?
- [30:45]
B
Yeah, yeah, yeah, totally. I was gonna mention one.
- [30:47]
A
So cool right now. Like, his swag, his coolness. I mean, he is waving to fans during the game. Like, Sam Darnold just seems like he is very comfortable in this offense, on that team, believing in himself. And that just gives me a ton of confidence because, look, we haven't talked much about it, but like the nerds who have dove into this, this matchup, the pictures have played like four good quarterbacks. One of them being, you know, two of them being, I should say, Josh Allen. One of them, grade wise, was Geno Smith. Geno Smith had an above average grade that, I mean, again, this was week one.
- [31:19]
B
Yeah.
- [31:20]
A
You just go through it. They've played so much trash of the quarterback position, it's really hard to figure out, is the Patriots defense legit? Are they at top 5, top 10 defense? Or is this because of their. Their path? Right. Because they did have two outdoor games at home against banged up offensive lines, and they went on the road and played a backup quarterback in the elements. Like that, to me, is why I think this number has been overrated. Like, I think the public betters and everyone, they're overrating this Patriots defense way too much, giving them a point and a half to two points here. So that's what I'm hoping. Evan has more trends here that keeps giving me more confidence to see how. Because I keep finding little things like that where it's like, my God, the numbers just show. Yes, the Patriots have been good against bad quarterbacks. They get rolled offensively. Good against good quarterbacks.
- [32:06]
C
Go, Chad.
- [32:07]
B
No, no, Evan, you're our guest.
- [32:09]
A
Yeah. Cut us off anytime you want to.
- [32:10]
B
Yeah.
- [32:11]
C
No, the one. The one thing I think is kind of interesting is obviously everywhere you look, you hear Patriots strength. Of schedule. I think Seahawks strength of schedule is also just as important in this game. I looked this up. Only 11 of the 120 Super bowl teams had a harder strength to schedule than the Seahawks. Those 11 teams went 8 and 3 in the Super Bowl. So I, I also kind of believe.
- [32:30]
A
I like that stat. That's a good stat.
- [32:32]
B
Love that.
- [32:33]
A
Yeah, yeah.
- [32:34]
C
Because I, I, I do think, like, the Patriots side of this is getting all the attention and believe me, I could feed you Patriot stuff right now that would show they would win the game. But I do feel like it's the Seahawks stuff and who they've had to go through and how well Darnold's played. Right. If you look at the single postseason, I believe Darnold has the fourth highest passer rating of any quarterback all time. You look on the other side, Drake may 113 pass rating during the regular season down to 84 in the playoffs. I don't really care why that's happened, but I also think that's baked into why the line maybe isn't three and it's even four and a half and five in getting juice juiced up at the moment. So I think the differences between what you're seeing from both sides of the field on offense is the reason this game has kind of progressed the way it has as well.
- [33:18]
B
That, that, Evan, is a great, great stat. Speaking of the NFL films, I saw this. You know, the Seahawks, their offensive line last year was terrible, and it was one of the reasons why people had them in last place in the NFC west this year. It's why their, their super bowl odds were longer than the Arizona Cardinals this year. Then they drafted Gray Zable, and Gray Zable has been a brilliant offensive lineman for them this year. And, and one of my favorite things that I saw from the NFL films clips was Gray Zable and Leonard Williams sitting on the bench during the game and Gray Zable saying, leonard Williams, you've got to stop using your spin move because they're bringing help to you when you are using your spin move. If you just use your power move and slide into the B gap, you've got a straight line to the quarterback. And Leonard Williams like no one had noticed it. And Gray Zabel is just sitting there and says it to him, Leonard Williams does that on the next drive and get and sacks the quarterback. And it was so cool to see that in game communication and then see from a rookie to a veteran and then see the veteran actually execute on it and then go over and just shake his hand and Go. Thank you very much for that. I don't know if you guys saw that, but it was amazing.
- [34:40]
A
No, I love that films. I mean, the coolest to me, as much as I'm giving Drake, man, it was Drake May and Josh McDaniel was having a very human moment on the bench. Was basically Drake May was talking about how hard the game was. Josh just was like, bro, like, you have six minutes from, like being a hero forever. Like, this is the exact moment we live for. Hey, it's hard.
- [34:59]
B
I know.
- [35:00]
A
Good guy. Listen, listen, look at me. It's gonna be hard, but look, this will be the most rewarding six and a half minutes of our lives if we can get it done. You know what I mean? And, like, I don't know about you. I got, like, chills watching because it's like, dude, that got me fired up. Where it's you. Your whole life leads up to these moments. Can you keep your composure in that final six minutes? And the Drake May, it'll be legendary if they win the Super Bowl. The Drake May bootleg on took it on his own call. That will live in infamy for the Patriots if they do win the Super Bowl. Him making his own call there and getting that first down. So that was again, NFL Films, they just. They're the best. They do it the best every year. And that was some really cool moments. Like Chad said, the. Between all the stuff with the. The Seahawks and you know, the big thing for them was DeMarcus Lawrence. I'm pretty sure you saw that Chad dropping into coverage against carrying Williams and shutting down the. The play. McVeigh couldn't go over how insane that play was. And yeah, the. Both these matches, like we said, it's. It's gonna be really tough to make a pick.
- [35:55]
B
Let's pause for a sec here from our friends at Zbiotics. Gentlemen, only one game left this football season. I know we're all going to be having a great time watching the big game with our friends and family, making bets, pouring drinks. Despite all of our incredible good looks, we just don't bounce back like we used to. And I'm a huge morning guy. Sometimes we've had to choose between a great night or a great next day. That was before we tried pre alcohol zbiotics. Pre alcohol probiotic drink is the world's first genetically engineered Probiotic, invented by PhD scientists to tackle rough mornings after drinking. Here's how it works. When you drink, alcohol gets converted into a toxic byproduct in the gut. It's a Buildup of this byproduct, not dehydration that's to blame for rough days after drinking. Pre alcohol produces an enzyme to break down this product. Just remember to make pre alcohol your first drink of the night. Drink responsibly and you'll feel your best tomorrow. Matt Mitchell, you enjoyed your experience on Sunday night, right? I sure did. Bill's not playing so I was able to have a lovely, relaxed NFL Sunday with my friends and family and neighbors over enjoying it here in Wisconsin, the heaviest drinking state in the union by a lot of. I love that it comes in this little fancy package. I thought they'd be like packets, but like, no, they come in this little package and they're not. They're not packets, they're these fancy little glass vials. Shot one down an hour before I started drinking. Enjoyed myself, had a great time, slept all night. The dreamless sleep of a Bills fan in a high leverage playoff evening. And then woke up, felt great, made pancakes, talked to my dad. Really had like a. A surprisingly lovely cheery morning despite it being negative 1 billion degrees outside. So I loved it. I will definitely be making it part of my kind of drinking routine moving forward. Enjoy the biggest games of the season without sacrificing an incredible next day. That's what Matt Mitchell did. Start your night with ZBiotics pre alcohol and wake up clear headed, focused and better than ever. Go to zbiotics.com sharpersquare now. You'll get 15% off your first order when you use Sharper Square at checkout. Plus it's backed by a 100% money back guarantee, so there's no risk. Subscriptions are also available for maximum consistency. That's zbiotics.com sharpersquare and use the code sharpersquare at checkout for 15% off. All right, Evan, give us some more. Where are you digging deep. What should we be looking out for? Whether it's MVP odds. I know there's a little joke going around with you and Matt Mitchell. Like you're, you know, two old buddies laughing at me. What, what, what are we missing here?
- [39:23]
C
All right, so I've got a bunch of pro Seattle stuff, but we're going to hold that off for a second because I do want to talk about super bowl mvp. I had heard through the grapevines you were interested in Rashid Shahid.
- [39:34]
B
You know what? You and Matt Mitchell, I, I just.
- [39:37]
C
To me it's a little bit of an overvalued situation. I think his odds are kind of baked into what he Brings to the table, obviously rushing, obviously receiving the returning. Like there's different ways for him to impact this game. And Seattle special teams, like if you had to rank the six units in this game, Seattle special teams very much near the top. So especially compared to maybe what New England has brought to the table, even though they haven't been as bad as like say the Rams. So from just a Super Bowl MVP standpoint, I feel like one of the interesting ones when you just look at the board is Jackson Smith, Najigba, like usually we're not seeing. At least it's happened more recently. A wide receiver that low in the odds. If you go back to 2003, I have him around 5 to 1 Najigba right now in the market consensus, it'd be the second lowest price for a wide receiver behind just Larry Fitzgerald at 4 to 1 in 2008. So really in terms of the success that he's had this season, the 1700 plus yards and it was just really, it was either going to be him or Puka that was probably going to be priced in this range no matter who won that other game. So I found that one intriguing and here's one more for you. In terms of super bowl mvp, the thing that I found interesting was so the Patriots are plus four and a half in the game, but you look at the market and Drake May is just plus 240. So a bit of a short price for a quarterback who is already like two to one to win the game. So since 2003, we've had 12 quarterbacks at plus three and a half or higher in the Super Bowl. Only three have been listed below three to one to win the award. Drake May this year, Joe Burrow in 2021 and Joe Flacco in 2012. That's it. Obviously one did it and one didn't. But I feel like in terms of the price and what you're getting, we talked, me and Raybon talked about this. Like I think Darnold and Najigba good value on the super bowl mvp. I don't think it's so with Drake May. I could see a lot of scenarios where someone else wins the award in that game, but that's my opinion.
- [41:35]
A
Yeah, it's. It's been skewed. Like even last year. As much as I love saying John hurts Super bowl mvp, should they've given it to a defensive player on the Eagles, I mean that argument is very heavy. The reason I feel is because it's a QB league and at the end of the day. That's the hardest part with making these super bowl Future bets, especially MVPs. It's like shouldn't we just blindly bet Sam Darnold? Like isn't that just the move? Like instead of if you're thinking about taking the Seahawks money line, I, I would suppose, like I said last year, just, I guess just take, take the money and just put it on Sam Darling VP odds. But it's been tough like every year for the defensive player or a wide receiver or running back to win it. They have to go so far above and beyond. And that's, that's the toughest part. And I was shocked by the stat. I can't believe Cooper cup in 2021 wasn't plus 650. Okay. Because I, I just remember that was like the greatest receiver season we've ever seen. But that makes sense, right? Because it's. You got the Stafford Joe Burrow effect that's going to bump that number down.
- [42:33]
C
I also think there's one thing with Najigba is his flair. Like the one handed catch he had in the NFC title game that he is going to most likely bring a play like that to the game that you're going to remember that plus 100 yards. Even if say he scores one touchdown, that actually might be enough if Darnold throws a pick which he's like minus 142. So it really depends on how the game plays out. But it was interesting to kind of think about what Darnold would have to do to not win the award and yet have one of his receivers win the award. Like even if Cooper cup caught two touchdowns, he's not in a situation where he's going to go for 100 yards. It's not his game. So does 80 yards, 60 yards and two touchdowns win cup the award still? Probably not. It just, it's an interesting scenario to kind of walk yourself through.
- [43:18]
B
I think to be a receiver and win the award you need multiple touchdowns and you need probably 120 yards receiving. I don't know what Randall.
- [43:30]
C
No, Cooper Edelman too. Edelman wanted like 10 receptions. He, I don't think he scored in the game. I think he had 10 receptions like 100 yards and that was just enough.
- [43:39]
A
You said he had the catch. Right. Remember he got hit by three different guys.
- [43:43]
C
That's true.
- [43:44]
A
The ball and kept it. And that was the defining play. Right. That was what people really bring up, why they won that game.
- [43:49]
B
Yeah. Like if you're gonna win MVP as a non quarterback, you kind of need that, that God moment that. Yeah, like, and, and you know, JSN wouldn't have gotten it out of the conference championship game if that had been the Super Bowl. It would have been Sam Darnold. As great as JSN was, it still would have been Sam Darnold. Because to your point earlier, Simon, even on that play where JSN caught the touchdown at the end of the first half, Darnold had guys in his face. He rolled out, he's got an injured oblique and he threw a perfect pass to a guy who had schemed wide open. And that's not what we've seen from Sam Darnold. And if that's what he's going to be. Sam Darnold, by the way, I think he opened it plus 135. He's down to about plus 125 now. So not crazy movement yet. Like, still going to be better on the money line than betting the Seahawks at, you know, two to one or whatever or one to two right now.
- [44:48]
A
So like Chad's saying, last year The Chiefs were minus one and a half right. Chad at the Super Bowl, Mahomes was like minus 120, minus 115. MVP ads.
- [44:57]
B
Right.
- [44:57]
C
Darnold also has a story. I mean, the story behind what Sam Darnold's done to get here. I mean, it's Disney World written all over it. Unless he throws a bunch of interceptions or fumbles the ball.
- [45:06]
B
Look, we all know how stupid these sports writers are and fallen for a narrative and deciding they're the ones who determine what history and fate is. So God only knows where they're going to fall for with Sam Darnold. You know what we're going to do? We're going to do a quick break from Hard Rock and then we're going to come right back. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock bet. Florida's sportsbook, the Big Game matchup is set. I cannot wait to see the Patriots play the Seahawks. Hard Rock BET has all the different ways you can get in on Sunday's action in the Big Game. So far, we're leaning towards the Seahawks. If you haven't seen signed up with Hard Rock Bet, there's never been a better time. This week they're launching a brand new welcome offer for new customers. Plus, Hard Rock Bet is kicking off at $7 million big game bonus party available to all users. You're definitely not going to want to miss that. And if you're in Florida or New Jersey, the Big Game Energy doesn't just live exclusively on the app. Head to Hard Rock Casino property for drawings, giveaways and all the excitement being up to kickoff. Hard Rock Bat also offers new promos every day. So if you're listening to this later, just open the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week. That's Hard Rock Bet. Download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit today. Payable bonus bets on a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Florida offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida, call 1833 PLAYWISE in Indiana. If you were someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809-with-IT gambling problem call 1-800-GAMBLER in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia. All right, F you've given us some Seahawks trends, anything you're leaving on the table that might make us feel really good before we get to the Patriots?
- [47:26]
C
Yeah. So, first of all, I feel like I'm coming off of a purple elevator to Hard Rock Casino after that ad. That was fantastic, Chad. I will say this is the one.
- [47:34]
B
That hasn't complimented my Hard Rock reads once all season.
- [47:39]
C
Elevator music. It was just beautiful. I was dancing over here. I think Seattle being somewhat dominant entering this game is a good conversation. I look at it obviously from a gambling standpoint, but they've won nine straight. They've covered four straight. Only four other teams have even done that. Nine straight and four straight. Nine straight wins, four straight covers. Entering a Super Bowl 2016, 17 Patriots barely survived versus the Falcons, but won the game and covered 2000. Ravens blew out the Giants, 1986 Giants blew out the Broncos 71. Cowboys blew out the Dolphins. So those teams, nine straight wins, four straight covers, four zero straight up four. Zero against a spread in the Super Bowl. If you, if you think Seattle's dominant, that's the stat you want to hear. Like they're just going to roll away with this one.
- [48:26]
B
That also speaks to what Simon was just talking about.
- [48:28]
C
Yeah, that was.
- [48:30]
A
I, I had that stat. I just, I didn't give it out because I just want to look very smart. But that was the stat I found very early on where it's like, okay, there's some historical data back up this run the Seahawks team's on because that right up, right away popped in my head. It's like how we had a team going this type of run where they've just been steamrolling teams. And like Evan said, once I started peeling back the currents, it's like, oh my God, every team like this just dominates the super. Doesn't matter if their team they played against is like even just as good. They've just, every time they got there, they're just been that much better. So great, great stat.
- [49:01]
B
Just hold on a second. What was that, what was that stat that were. That was 8 and 3 against the spread? Was that the one where they have the strength to schedule advantage?
- [49:10]
C
Yeah. So the 11 team strength of schedule more difficult than Seattle's were 8 and 3 in the game.
- [49:17]
B
Got it, got it. Okay.
- [49:20]
C
Yeah. I'll give you one more. I Talked about the 1 and 9 stat earlier. To me, this is the on field stat I thought was interesting. And there's a bunch of data out there on what Mike McDonald's defense, even with his last year in the Ravens, have done against these young quarterbacks. But even if you look, last two seasons with the Seahawks, he's faced 10 QBs under the age of 25. What does that tell you? That's inexperienced. That's showing you maybe a defense pre snap that changes post snap. Well, in those games the inexperienced quarterback is one and nine straight up, 12 interceptions and 30 sacks. And those quarterbacks have lost eight straight games. So understanding that there is a two week period here for Drake May to study what Seattle does. But I think on the other side, maybe more important, it's what Seattle's defense is going to prepare to do against Drake May. So that stat a little alarming to me from a New England standpoint, these.
- [50:13]
B
Are great on field trends not steeped in history that I think we can activate against, but give us the other side.
- [50:23]
C
I mean, from New England's standpoint, I feel like the thing that would give you just some sort of, just some sort of pause would be the fact that this game is a and, and it's tough because you look at the odds, right? New England entered the season at 80 to 1. Seattle entered the season at 60 to 1. But to me, those aren't indicative of what those teams are currently bringing to the table right now. So I think those can kind of be tossed out the window a little bit. But in this scenario, Drake May as an underdog, hasn't played bad. And the thing that really gets me is in the games that he's played as a dog, New England's averaging 26 points per game that to me is a large, large number in games that New England shouldn't be winning. And this season they're four and two straight up and against the spread in those games. So basically being able to plan and scheme, especially now you're getting an extra week to do that when mostly they're doing it week to week in that basis. So to me that, that's the interesting one which is you're not supposed to win this game. You've got extra time to prepare for it and you know you're getting over, let's say two hooks here, three and four. So to me that's one that's interesting from New England standpoint.
- [51:41]
A
And also again, you have to dive into the games. One of those games they were a three and a half or four point dog going to Baltimore. Lamar got, Lamar got banged up, knocked out of that game. And at a game in which the Ravens were dominating, Drake may once again give him props. He scored 18 in the second half of that game and stole that game. They won 28 to 24. So that's just like Evan's got these stats. They do. He does seem to show up. But it's also like you do you dive a little bit into him before.
- [52:10]
B
We get out of here. Evan, we know we're, we've talked, Simon and I have talked about sort of our bets so far. Do you have any bets that you've made? You always have like interesting bets that are a little bit off the beaten path. What bets have you made on the super bowl so far?
- [52:27]
C
Sure. So my first bet I made which turns out to get some great clv and you love to see that. I took drake may over 29 and a half rushing yards.
- [52:35]
B
Oh boy.
- [52:35]
C
It is now at like 3:38 and a half I see in the market somewhere. So that bet long gone. I'll give you a few more that actually might be actionable at the moment. I took Stefan Diggs under 18 and a half. Longest reception. Believe that's only down to 17 and a half on the market. He has been a short yardage king for New England and I see that not changing in this game. They're going to go long to booty. They're going to try long to Kyle Williams. Like there's going to be other options down the field. He's going to be the short yardage reception guy. So I felt like 18 and a half was a little long and here's the anti one that I went with. So the Patriots have historically this year been very good. First half. I Believe. Let's see if I'm looking at this right now. Last 21 starts. Drake May is 1812 on the first half money line and 15. 02 first half moneyline. Last 17. They've been really good to start games. I'm gonna flip it. I think that changes. I'll take Seattle. First half and full game. You're getting like +130 +140 rang depending on the book, which is a lot different than that. Minus 230 on the money line and you're basically just asking them to start fast.
- [53:43]
A
Evan and that huge booker, he's wouldn't happen to have anything on the first quarter stats. I. I gave him one of my favorite bets. First quarter under seven and a half.
- [53:50]
C
Oh, well, I. I actually look fantastic. I took under nine and a half. I'm asking you to shop out there. I took first quarter under nine and a half. So I'm completely on the same page with you. I don't have anything in front of me right now. I actually have to look into it. But I believe first quarter unders in the Super bowl are something like 58 to 60% when you look over the last decade or two. So completely on the same page. And I like getting over those key numbers, even in eight, depending on what happens in the game.
- [54:20]
B
Dude, it was so great to have Evan on the show today. Simon, you can say yes.
- [54:26]
A
The best. I always think you're about to go on. Another little silhouette about great evidence.
- [54:34]
C
He was pausing. It was all right.
- [54:36]
B
Evan's the best. Evan, thanks for coming on. Everyone, go check out action Super Bowl 60 primer. It's great. And it's by our friend Evan Abrams. This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast network. We will be back next week for more super bowl talk. We got another special guest. We're going to talk about props. We're gonna. We're going to talk about it all. Because there's so much to unpack, watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe. Leave us. Five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.
- [55:13]
A
We're going to pay tribute to what this day represents, an unannounced American holiday. For there's no other time all year long where so many of us gather together around one event. Some of you will watch from hospitals and nursing homes and others will celebrate neighborhood parties and family get togethers. Each of us millions of us fitting together in this uniquely American mosaic. This is an iHeart podcast.
- [55:43]
B
Guaranteed Human.