Sharp or Square – Super Bowl Prop Bets and Longshots with Brandon Anderson
Podcast: Sharp or Square
Episode: Super Bowl Prop Bets and Longshots with Brandon Anderson
Date: February 5, 2026
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Special Guest: Brandon Anderson (Action Network)
Overview
In this Super Bowl prop bet bonanza, Chad Millman and Simon Hunter are joined by prop betting maven Brandon Anderson. The trio covers everything from game line narrative shifts and sides, to creative ladder bets, escalators, props for both teams, and why “fun” and “bankroll balance” matter on the NFL’s biggest gambling day. As the conversation unfolds, they dig deep into matchup analytics, notable prop strategies, and their favorite longshots, helping listeners prepare for every angle of Super Bowl betting.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. A Quiet, Evolving Super Bowl Week
- Quiet Before the Storm: This year’s Super Bowl build-up felt "mellow" — stable lines, minimal drama, and more NBA trade deadline noise than NFL hype.
- Chad (01:01): “I just feel like...in the last 48 hours, NFL news has been subsumed by NBA trade deadline news…It’s just a very quiet Super Bowl week.”
- Why the Lack of Hype?
- Simon posits it’s due to a less thrilling matchup and absence of a breakout storyline.
- Simon (02:00): “It’s hard to get fired up…If this was Josh Allen…or Lamar finally made it… I would probably have a little bit more juice.”
2. Inside the Betting Markets: Sides vs. Props
- Professional Lean:
- Simon reports many “pros” are on the Patriots (+4.5) despite public support for the Seahawks.
- Explosion of Props:
- Players under 30 focus almost exclusively on props, ignoring side and total bets.
- Simon (05:14): “These pros can get insane value on these numbers…Now it’s like thousands [of props]. Anything you can think of.”
3. The Grind of Prop Betting at Scale
- Props Are Hard to Scale:
- Chad reflects on how professional prop bettors struggle to get money down as limits are lower, networks are required, and it's a “massive, massive grind.”
- Chad (07:13): “It’s hard to get money down... It’s just a grind...A lot of guys scale out of it because it does become so difficult.”
4. Host Final Picks & “Laddering” Strategies
Category Bets:
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Chad’s Choice: Seattle -6.5 (+115)
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Brass Balls Bet: Patriots first drive punt (-113) – “Gross. Just gross.” – Chad (09:07)
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Simon underlines the Super Bowl is a time to let loose with fun, exotic bets.
- Simon (27:26): “You’re having fun. That’s Super Bowl. I tell people all the time, the Super Bowl is supposed to be fun. Spread out your stuff.”
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Laddering Explained (25:06-27:21):
- Brandon’s “Laddering Intervals” Advice:
- Start with 5.5, 9.5, then escalate by 6 or 7 points per rung (e.g., 16.5, 23.5), putting less on each next tier.
- Correlate with player props for higher potential.
- Brandon (25:56): “I've often done five and a half and nine and a half as kind of the starting escalator modes...just kind of hitting a touchdown at a time on the way up…”
- Brandon’s “Laddering Intervals” Advice:
5. Guest Segment: Brandon Anderson on Props, Scripting, and Sides
Confidence in Seattle’s Defense
- Seahawks D vs. Patriots O: A Real Mismatch
- Brandon (13:51): “All year long...the two units that I most believed in? Rams offense, Seahawks defense.”
- Patriots’ offense has regressed badly against real defenses.
- Brandon (14:56): "Patriots offense has been the Jets offense [statistically] for comparison."
- Best Bet: Patriots team total under 20.5.
- Stat: Seahawks held non-Rams teams under 20.5 in 13/16 games.
Why Are Pros Taking Patriots?
- Simon (18:58): Trend-following: underdog bias, market inflation of favorites, and skepticism of Sam Darnold as a chalk Super Bowl QB.
6. Building Profitable, Entertaining Prop Bets
Defensive & Special Teams Props
- Set It and Forget It:
- Brandon (29:52): “Defenses score in the Super Bowl…There are 35 defense special team touchdowns in Super Bowls. That’s 59% [implied].”
- Bets:
- Either team defense/Special Teams TD (+265)
- Parlay: Defensive/Special Teams TD + Moneyline (both sides)
- E.g., Seahawks D/ST TD + Moneyline (+833); Patriots (+2700)
- Defensive MVP (15/1 on all defenders)
- Deep-longshots: Marcus Jones, DeMarcus Lawrence, Ernest Jones at 100/1+
The “Most Fun” Super Bowl Bet
- Single-Play Prop:
- Rashid Shaheed (Seahawks WR) Over 2.5 rushing yards.
- Brandon (34:27): “It’s the most fun because…you’re waiting for one gadget play…you know we’re getting the trick play, the reverse…that they’ve been holding back the whole entire season.”
- Longest rush in game: Shaheed at 30/1.
Running Back, Receiver, and Tight End Props
- Kenneth Walker (SEA) Receiving:
- Walker’s receiving production has tripled late in the season; more involvement with Charbonnet out.
- Brandon (37:37): “He’s had three catches or more in seven of the last ten…when he gets three or more, he’s averaging 39 yards a game.”
- Bets: Over 2.5 receptions; Over 30 yards; escalators for bigger games.
- Hunter Henry (NE) Receiving:
- Seahawks funnel action to RBs and TEs; 24% of targets go to TEs.
- Bet: Over 39.5 receiving yards (+105)
- Escalators: Over 50 yards (+155); long longshot: 80+ yards (+630)
7. Game Script, Correlation, and Prop Parlays
- Write the Script, Build Bets for It:
- If you expect Seattle to control, connect bets: alt spreads, Walker props, defensive TD, etc.
- Mix and match escalators & parlays for fun, big-payout potential.
- Simon (42:54): “If you’re taking that Henry bet, Drake May over 20 completions, over 31 pass attempts. Throw them in there. Just keep building it out, people.”
Notable Quotes & Moments
- On Seahawks Defensive Dominance:
- Brandon (14:56): “Patriots offense has been the Jets offense for comparison. It’s the worst EPA per drive for a Super Bowl team since the 2000 Ravens or the 2015 Broncos.”
- On Fun and Responsible Super Bowl Betting:
- Simon (27:26): “It’s just fun because all of a sudden you wake up Monday morning, it’s like, holy, I won a thousand bucks and I won two bets.”
- On Defensive Props:
- Brandon (29:52): “Defenses score in the Super Bowl. We have 22 defensive touchdowns in the Super Bowl, at least one in 19 out of the 59. So about one in three.”
- On the Emotional Side of Betting:
- Chad (47:43): “We’re in it together forever. Schlamizel. Schlamazel. We’re like Laverne and Shirley. We’re Milwaukee’s finest.”
Detailed Timestamps for Key Segments
- 01:01 – Chad on the “quiet” Super Bowl week
- 04:47 – Simon describes age split in professional betting approaches (props vs. sides/totals)
- 09:07 – Brass Balls Bet: Patriots first drive punt
- 10:29 – Brandon on choosing how to bet/ladder a one-game “choose your own adventure”
- 13:51–17:54 – Brandon’s Seahawks defense vs Patriots offense breakdown
- 25:06–27:21 – How to “ladder” your bet intervals for alternate lines
- 29:52–33:49 – Defensive and special teams touchdown longshots and MVPs
- 34:27–36:49 – Rashid Shaheed “the most fun Super Bowl bet” rundown
- 37:12–39:19 – Kenneth Walker receiving prop logic
- 39:38–42:41 – Hunter Henry tight end props
- 43:54 – The betting “script”: Why betting narratives matter and how to combine props
- 46:04–48:34 – Chad and Simon debate final contest picks and emotional hedges
Final Five Official Contest Picks
- Seahawks -4.5 (full game)
- Seahawks -4.5 (first half)
- Patriots +3.5 (first half)
- Under 45.5
- Drake May completions over 19.5
- Ramondre Stevenson under 53.5 rush yards
(Final five “official” for the contest slightly exceeds five, as they explain their full script: Seattle wins, Patriots forced to play catch up, short completions, little rushing.)
Takeaways & Tone
- Relaxed, irreverent, but packed with actionable insight. The hosts and guest combine analytics with permission to make betting entertaining — “it’s supposed to be fun.”
- Props are center stage. There’s heavy support for creative, calculated prop and escalator bets, with practical advice on correlating and managing bankroll.
- Seahawks, Seahawks, Seahawks. The show’s panel is all-in on Seattle to win and cover, with a clear narrative about defensive dominance and New England’s offensive limitations.
- Encouragement to try fun, cheap longshots with upside—swing for glory on the biggest day, but keep the stakes reasonable.
For Listeners Who Missed the Episode
This episode serves as a “prop bet masterclass” — perfect for both sharps and squares betting the Super Bowl. It details why Seattle’s defense is the anchor for both narrative and props, breaks down meaningful trends, and maps out how to have the most fun while still betting smart. The team delivers their best bets, explains why so many pros are on the Patriots (even if the hosts respectfully disagree), and closes with high-odds, low-risk longshots, defensive props, and creative ladders, all with the encouragement to use your imagination — and stay safe with your bankroll.
If you’re looking for expert, enthusiastic, and practical Super Bowl betting advice — focusing on prop bets and alternate lines — this episode is a one-stop shop.