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- [00:00]
Chad Millman
This is an Iheart podcast. Guaranteed human.
- [00:06]
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- [00:30]
Chad Millman
Visit your nearby Lowe's on Colorad street in Kennewick. Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Bat. We are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the show that makes the square sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my bff, my companion, my compadre, my co host, professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [01:00]
Brandon Anderson
Chad.
- [01:00]
Simon Hunter
How we doing?
- [01:02]
Chad Millman
I'm great. I'm freaking fantastic. I feel like it's been a weirdly. Tell me if you agree. It feels like a weirdly quiet super bowl week. And what I mean by that is the line has stayed the same. There hasn't been a lot of, you know, super bowl opening night quote controversy. It's been four and a half. It's 45 and a half. Injuries haven't been an issue. I just feel like. I actually feel like in the last 48 hours, NFL news has been subsumed by NBA trade deadline news just feels like a very sort of quiet super bowl week right now.
- [01:46]
Simon Hunter
I guess I'm just in a bubble that I, I would. I know nothing about NBA trade news at all, NFL wise. I guess you're right. Maybe there's not a pop because it's not. We're coming off a high of my homes, right? The run, this run of Mahomes, I mean, going for the three feet last year.
- [02:01]
Chad Millman
That's right. That's right.
- [02:02]
Simon Hunter
He's just been on this incredible run. It's. It's hard to get fired up. I won't lie for Sam Darnold Drake. It just is. If this was Josh Allen finally made it or Lamar finally made it, you know, I, I would probably have a little bit more juice. But yeah, maybe, maybe that's what's lacking, I think, for the general public. But yeah, my world, it's never ending. Chad, everyone's got an opinion and I would say it's hit probably 65%, 60ish%. All pros I've talked to are pretty confident on the Patriots side, so.
- [02:37]
Chad Millman
Really?
- [02:38]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, they're feeling pretty good, Chad. So I really thought it was going to be super, super Seahawks heavy. But it seems like it's, it's definitely the pros, they're, they're taking positions on this Patriots team. But I say all the time it's in a one game coin flip type of scenario. The super bowl. So random. I'm not gonna let it worry me too much. This was week five. I would tell you right now we might be in some trouble, Chad, but it's not. It's a Super bowl week. I'm dug in love to Seahawks still have just leaned into it totally. And yeah, it's, it's just fun because so many opinions are changing every day. Where, I mean, all last week it was all Drake Mays banged up. Now this week, Seahawks, their star rookie safety rolled an ankle last play of the game and now everyone's freaking out about the Seahawks. So some, some injury worry. But yeah, at the end of the day it's. I think you're right. It's been a pretty mellow week, right? No, no, no. Not too much drama. No real madness from the media side of things.
- [03:34]
Chad Millman
Someone needs to start dating Taylor Swift stat to start getting some storylines going on here. Since this is our Thursday pre Super bowl episode, it's all. It's going to be mostly props. We have a very special guest we're going to get to in a minute. We are going to have our brass balls bed of the week. We are going to have the final Chad's choice of the season. I want to do that in one second. But you said something to me very interesting the other day that I think is germane and relevant to the show we're doing today. Regardless of the sides. So much more of the action is on the props and I feel like this year more than ever. We started hear about it last year where Saquon Barkley became the action that every book needed, right? It was Saquon Barkley. Touchdown. Saquon Barkley, rushing yards, whatever it was, every book needed him not to do anything in that game. This year we're hearing the same thing again. It's all about the props. What else are you hearing from professionals about? Are they leaning more into the props and the sides? Are you getting that sort of feeling as well?
- [04:48]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, props. Props will always be. Again, it's. It depends on how old the professional is. Like if I know plenty of professionals below the age of 30, they don't even do sides or totals. They only do props. So for them, this is their. The super bowl is the holy grail because you can get so much money down on these props at all different books we're doing the regular season. You are lucky to get above a 1k bet on a prop.
- [05:14]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [05:15]
Simon Hunter
I mean the books, they're just so keen to it. They know these pros can get insane value on these, these numbers. So yeah, the problem market's heated up. I mean we talk a little bit about, you know, know these prediction markets. That's a whole another world that's really heated up in the prop market because I mean you can make prop bets on just about every little thing on these, on these sites.
- [05:37]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [05:37]
Simon Hunter
So, yeah, it's, it's really opened things up. I remember my first time in Vegas for the super bowl. Seeing a sheet of 200 props was mind blowing. Like I'll just never forget. I was like, this is overwhelming. This is going to take me all two weeks to get through it now. It's like thousands, I mean thousands of different props. Anything you can think of. I mean it's, it really is a well time. So, yeah, it's, I, I would say you're, you're right with your assessment. The guys are really taking a position on props. But yeah, the old school guys and like at most guys that I talk to, they're still harping about totals, first half totals, you know, first first half sides, full game sides, full game totals. And that's really, that's, that's what these guys love to bet. Right. They're going to have their models and their opinions on the number and the total. So it's still heavy to that. But yeah, I would definitely say the new age, the next generation from 21 up to 39, 40. Props, all props. All the pros I talk to, it's just, I'm the same way. I like Ben. Stupid props. I mean, you wanted me to have a fat lineman catch a touchdown. I'm betting it. You want me to have the over two and a half different passing pass attempts in the game. I'm betting, I want to bet on Cooper cup throwing a pass. So I'm, I'm totally on board. Well, I told old heads these type of bets, they're like, you're a sucker, you're throwing your money away. They just, they're from a different world. So yeah, it's definitely an age split on props.
- [07:02]
Chad Millman
So it's funny, you know, one of the guys I'm, I'm talking to for the book that I'm writing, he has focused his entire career on props and hard life.
- [07:14]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's hard to get money it's.
- [07:16]
Chad Millman
Hard to get money down. It's, you know, it's been a fascinating thing to write about for the book and we'll obviously talk more about the book, you know, when it's about to come out many, many, many, many months from now. But. And I write all about, like, how hard it is to get money down, how hard it is to scale, you know, and how hard. It's just a grind. It's a massive, massive grind. And a lot of guys who are professionals, they really do sort of, they, they scale out of it because it does become so difficult and it's hard to build a network of getting money down with other people and things like that. But we were texting the other day, he's in Vegas now, and I said to him, I really like the Seahawks. He said that he was betting one of the props. He bet. He goes, this is stupid, but one of the props. I bet Seattle -31 at +3100 or something like that, which made me feel better because I have been layering Seattle alts in a variety of ways, which I want to talk to you and our guest about. It also made me feel better because before we get to our guest and we're going to be talking so much about props, I do want to give out our final category bets of the season. Chad's choice, presented by Hard Rock Bet is one of those Seattle alts. Seattle minus six and a half plus 115 at hard rock bet. That is number one. Number two, brass balls bet of the week presented by Hard Rock. Bat this one. It's so gross and so yucky. I can't believe we're offering it.
- [09:01]
Brandon Anderson
Simon, you know what it takes.
- [09:03]
Simon Hunter
It takes brass balls.
- [09:07]
Chad Millman
New England Patriots, first drive punt, minus 1 13. Gross. Just gross.
- [09:18]
Simon Hunter
It's gross. Are these new graphics, man? Mitchell, I love them, man. I love the, the new graphics for the Super Bowl. Stepping it up.
- [09:23]
Chad Millman
All right, don't forget, you can get the shows at Sherpa Square on YouTube. Go subscribe and like this video while you're at it. You can also subscribe to Sharper Square on apple pod, Spotify, etc. All right, props are popular. We've been talking about it. We're doing our prop episode today with one of our favorite people from the action network, man who dives deep into the props. A man who has given out long shot future winners to both you and I. Long shot prop winners. One of the most creative thinkers in the business. I am talking about our former colleague, Brandon Anderson. Welcome, Brandon.
- [09:59]
Brandon Anderson
Hey, guys, how's it going?
- [10:01]
Chad Millman
Well, it's great. I'm feeling really good now that I know all the wise guys are on the Patriots. You know, it's funny, after I've been betting my brains out on the Seahawks, and not just that, and we're going to get into the props, but I feel like the entire sort of narrative I've built for this game is based on Seahawks controlling the ball, Patriots needing to come back in this game. Do you have a broad opinion at this point?
- [10:30]
Brandon Anderson
Yeah, I think it's interesting as I heard you talk about the Seattle -4 and a half, 6 and a half, 31. That's where I started, like, coming out of championship Sunday, I was like, all right, well, season's over. We saw the Super Bowl. We saw Seahawks, Rams, we got our winner. We found out who they're going to beat. Let's find out how much they're going to win by. And for, like, 10 days of this process, that's where it was. And then you start listening to some of the other content. Some of you trying to, you know, think, what? Well, what. What am I missing? What's the opposite of my view? And so I'd be like, well, what about this thing? What about play action? What about the Patriots? This thing? And you start kind of coming back the other way. You're like, man, I don't know. Four and a half is kind of a lot. You know, the underdogs are covering all these numbers lately, and I thought I was going to pull all the way back. And then I did my last prep these last couple of days and made my final picks, was like, yeah, yeah, no, Seattle. We're on Seattle. Seattle is the spot to be. This is what I thought. And two, it's interesting with super bowl, you know, normally we're preparing on a Sunday for like 14 games or something. You're finding angles all over the place, and suddenly you got one game and two weeks of shows and content to fill for one game. And it's like, okay, so what do you do? Do you choose? This is the game and this is the script, and this is exactly what I think. I'm going to bet that 12 different ways, and here's my menu. Or do you say, okay, choose your own adventure. If Seattle's up early, here's the bet for that. If I'm wrong and the Patriots return the opening kick for a touchdown, what's the bet for that? How do I bet they, like, do you cover your bases and kind of give yourself four or five scripts for the super bowl, or do you just say, this is the one that I most agree with and go all in? And, you know, I think you can do either one of those if you're doing it right.
- [12:17]
Chad Millman
Brandon, don't hedge. Don't be a coward over here, my little fund. We're going all in, brother. We are all in on whatever the Seahawks are gonna do in this game. It's Seahawks or bust for us.
- [12:37]
Simon Hunter
Chad no longer is allowed to sit on the fence here. I've. I've literally beat him down to a man that he make. I make him pick a side, and it's. It's the way it should be. It's tough. We all hate doing it. But, yeah, I'm. I'm totally in line with him where it's like I was wavering a little bit about the Patriots. Right. You hear so much noise and it's like, oh, my God, am I missing something here? But I'm. I'm back all. Unless yox as well. So not all the professionals chat roll on the Patriots, right? There's still some of us on the chalky side with the Joe Public, but yeah, it's. I was definitely shocked to hear how many people have taken position on the Patriots because I did think it was going to be the world versus sports books. But the all things are. All things have evened out in the world, Chad. Don't worry. The pros are on one side, the public's on the other.
- [13:19]
Chad Millman
We are the public in this game. I don't. I don't mind. I don't mind being chalky. All right, Brandon, let's kick off with the unit you feel most confident in right now, which is the Seahawks defense. You've just explained you've come down on the side of the Seahawks. It is going to be because of the Seahawks defense. Why are you so confident in this Seahawks defense and how it matches up with what the Patriots can do from a betting point of view?
- [13:51]
Brandon Anderson
Yeah. So it's. It's Seahawks defense, and it's also Patriots offense being actually the thing I maybe feel least confident with this matchup as well. So to me, all year long, looking at all 32 teams, the two units that I most believed in, Rams offense, Seahawks defense. And we saw that. We saw that match. We saw it play out three times. We saw these fireworks showdowns, and we saw them like, number one, DVOA offense, Rams. Number one DVOA defense, Seahawks. Since week 13, the Seahawks gave up 64 points to the Rams. They gave up 44 points to everybody else on the schedule in that stretch. 44 points on 62 drives defensively, two touchdowns, seven points a game to anybody other than the Rams. And that includes two 49ers games that we thought the 49ers were this buzz to offense until they weren't anymore. Well, you know, Purdy and blah blah blah. No, they were crushing everybody and then they weren't because they played the Seahawks. That's how good the defense has been at everything. Patriots offense meanwhile had all the good numbers in the regular season because we all know about how soft the schedule was. Now they're facing these tough defenses and the numbers are ghastly since since 1979 is how long it's been since we have A team averaging 18 points a game that made the Super Bowl 1979. They're averaging point negative 0.73 EPA per drive. The Patriots so far that's basically the jets regular season number. The Patriots offense has been the jets offense for comparison. It's the worst EPA per Drive for World team since the 2000 Ravens or the 2015 Broncos. Guess what those are defense teams. Those are all in defense teams that we knew that at the time that it just enough offense. That's not what the Patriots are supposed to be. So if you're buying Patriots right now, I think you have to be buying that. Is this suddenly hyper elite defense. The offense hasn't really shown up all season long. Drake May hasn't really faced a lot of great competition. So suddenly now his numbers are dropping. 33rd percentile EPA in the playoffs among quarterbacks. 33rd percentile against top 10 defenses on the season. He's had nine games a season with a PFF grade 60 or higher. Here's who they're against. Miami, the Jets, Carolina, Buffalo, New Orleans, Tennessee and the Giants. Hooray for you. Congrats on your above average games. Only four of those since week seven. He's at eight games 50% tailor below PFF and EPA six. Since week seven Seattle's held quarterbacks to that mark 14 out of 19 games. So this to me is a real mismatch in Seattle. We know how good the run defense is. Patriots are not going to be able to run the ball in this game. They're not having been a good run team anyways. Patriots really rely on explosive plays number one all season but Seattle is second against explosives. Drake Mays area throws have dropped from early in the season to late in the year. Seattle's number one against wide receiver one. So that's the fund diggs so okay, you can't run the ball, you can't throw a lot to digs, you can't go deep to booty. What's left then? We just took the whole offense away if that's what's happening. And we're talking about the offensive line. We've seen Will Campbell, we've seen those rookies on the left side really struggle as the season's gone on. We know Seattle's pressure rate. So to me coming out swinging here, Patriots team total under 20 and a half. That's the first but I'm going to give out here. Patriots have only got under that four times all season, but two of them in the playoffs already. Seattle has held non rams opponents under 20 and a half in 13 of 16 games this season. So throw out the number one Rams offense and this is hitting 13 of 16 times 15 points a game. And two of those three overs came in garbage time one in the final minute. I'll give you a trivia. Who's the team that actually went over 20 and a half that's not the Rams. Do either of you know from the season who beat the Seahawks 21 points or better?
- [17:54]
Chad Millman
Well beat the Seahawks or who who.
- [17:58]
Brandon Anderson
Put up 21 or more this line?
- [18:00]
Chad Millman
Arizona Cardinals.
- [18:02]
Brandon Anderson
Arizona I believe was at 20.
- [18:08]
Chad Millman
Okay.
- [18:10]
Brandon Anderson
Then I have the season. It's a quarterback that got hurt and was much worse late in the season.
- [18:17]
Simon Hunter
Baker.
- [18:18]
Brandon Anderson
Baker is correct. The Buccaneers dropped I think 38 I believe on the, on the Seahawks.
- [18:23]
Simon Hunter
They won that game. Me and Chad actually won that bet.
- [18:26]
Brandon Anderson
Yeah and by the way, these are also both bottom four in pace neutral as well. So I think we're going to get a slower game overall that can help an under as well. I'm not positive we'll talk about the other side of the ball. I'm not positive about Seattle's offense, New England's defense yet. I just don't think England's going to score very much. So patriots under 20 and a half.
- [18:45]
Chad Millman
All right, look, everything you just said makes me feel so much better. So like Simon, why are people coming in on the Patriots? What do we think here?
- [18:59]
Simon Hunter
I mean honestly a lot of it is because of the trends of the dogs. Like I told you, if you just blindly bet the dogs down the super bowl, the public is giving you a free point to two points every, every time. And you've seen the books have gotten so much sharper. I mean I, I think back to that Giants but What they open 13 +13 against the Patriots and it got bet down to like 11 and a half by kickoff. But those days feel long gone. They'll never have those type of snares again because that's what we feel like we have right here. Like that. That's how I feel, like that's how big this spread should be. Where the Patriots feel so lucky to be here. They've earned it. I've said it all along the way. They've earned it. They've won those games. But the path, you cannot overlook the path they took to get here and how favorable it was for this team. And this is the ultimate test. The fact that they're looking at is you're fading Sam Darnold as a 4 1/2 point favorite in the Super Bowl. That's basically the basis of most guys I talk to. Where it's like, isn't that a lot to give to a guy who had one great game in the playoffs? Which is what he did. That Rams game was incredible. It was great. I feel like he found something in that game. That is why they're just like, you're betting a lot on a guy who had one good game where we have three other games where he, you know, you can say he didn't do much against the 49ers. I still think he made big time throws. But last year against the Rams and then last year against the Lions and that biggest games he did not show up and he faltered and he played really poorly. And I think a lot of guys are still holding that against him. So it's a big number. Like we said, four and a half is a big number when you're talking about a one game, sample winner take all type of matchup. But I, I, I said it to you, Chad. I still think it's, it's because of that, because of the, the dog success. I think it's going the other way. We're getting two free points on the favorite now where it shifted too much to giving the dog too much respect here. So it's, it is like you said, it's, it's interesting where you look at all the numbers and it is, everyone knows this Patriots team's overrated. And that's what's so funny. These Patriots fans get so upset about it. Why would you care? You're in the dance, you made it. It's like, it's, it's very bizarre how they're reacting to, it's like, you guys know you had a soft schedule, you know the beat the teams you beat. Yes, you won those games and it was tons of respect. But it's like, come on, I mean, were you really going to act like the path of Herbert, C.J. and then a backup quarterback was, you know, the hardest path every Super Bowl?
- [21:23]
Brandon Anderson
No.
- [21:23]
Simon Hunter
But when you look at the Seahawks, their whole season, that was a tough path. They were in the hardest division in football. So I, I just don't get why they're, they don't, they're like so upset. Everyone's picking the Seahawks. Why would they not be? Why would anyone in national media who basically always picks chalk, why would they pick the Patriots? It's like, I just at the surface level, it doesn't really make sense. But yeah, I, I, like you said, I'm hearing Anderson say all that stuff about all those numbers. I'm just like you, Chad. That, that made me feel so much better inside, where it's like, I, I, I'm waving a little bit because it feels too easy. I think you have the same feeling, but it's like, no, stick to it. We're betting to a good number. I really am confident in this. YAWKS team.
- [22:04]
Chad Millman
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- [24:38]
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- [25:06]
Chad Millman
I know I want to do props, but I'm dying to ask both you right now. How do I ladder this? I believe in the Seahawks. I bet the Seahawks. Simon, you and I talked about this two weeks ago. Now I bet the Seahawks at minus three and a half the second the game opened. I bet the Seahawks again at four and a half. I have bet the Seahawks at minus 25 and a half. If I want to be on the Seahawks, at what intervals do you think I keep betting the Seahawks as I ladder this up? Brandon, you are the laddering master. If I'm going to be on the Seahawks, what are my laddering intervals here? If I've got it, three and a half, four and a half and 25 and a half? Am I doing six and a half? Am I doing nine and a half? Am I doing 13 and a half? Like, is that what I should be doing?
- [25:57]
Brandon Anderson
Yes, I was going to ask about that. So this year I often have done five and a half and nine and a half as kind of the starting escalator modes. And then from there you know, you know, basically you're just looking at, okay, what are key numbers? And then how can I just kind of keep ducking Below the key numbers, I get to choose as I go up, you know that the main number they're putting out, we're going to get actionable sides to hone in on the number. But so to me, I like five and a half. We've seen this year and more the last few years, some sixes along with the sevens. So I like to get under both of those if I can. It's usually not a huge difference. Nine and a half to get out of the 10, and then maybe I go like 16 and a half, 23 and a half. You know, just kind of like hitting a touchdown at a time on the way up or something like that, and just kind of slowly a little bit less each time. I think, too, we're going to get into the props, but you can sort of correlate and say, okay, well, if they're going to win by 20, 30 points, if that is the outcome, how'd they get there? Did JSN have the huge game? Did Holani come in and get a last touchdown? Because Walker is already out celebrating on the sidelines. Like, you can kind of get creative with. Okay, if this is the script, what are some other long numbers I can play rather than just the spread? And you can. Or you can build the same game. Parliament say, okay, let's put a bunch of these together. Did Darnold hit the yards? And we got the JSN game, and that's why we got this big number as well.
- [27:22]
Chad Millman
All right, Simon, you got any thoughts on that? You think I'm being crazy?
- [27:27]
Simon Hunter
No, you're having fun. That's Super Bowl. I tell people all the time, the super bowl is supposed to be fun. Spread out your stuff. Like me, the Oka Mudron. I'm gonna put 50 of my equity into the minus six and a half. See, I'll expect, Like, to me, that's fun. The fact that I'm not betting -115. I'm getting -115. That, that, to me, is my fun. Like, that's how sick I am. So, yeah, it's. I, I do this, these ladders, too. Like, I like doing all those bets, but, like, everyone just needs to remember such a small percentage of your bet, right? You're just, that's your fun money. But yeah, like, you're serious if you're trying to take a position. Yeah, for me, I, I, I just lean to the, the getting the juice number. But yeah, if you're trying to put some crazy stuff together. Chad, you basically, we talk all the time. If you're someone out there that likes the overs, do not bet the over. Like you can parlay it, but throw in all the touchdown scores. Like throw in crazy parlays of different touchdown scores and get real weird with it, right? Mack Hollins, throw them in there. Like throw in the second tight end, throw in the fullback, do whatever. Because if you bet two bucks and it hits and you hit some of these parlays, sometimes you're getting back like a thousand bucks. It's, it happens. So yeah, it's, that's, that's where I always try to tell people where. It's like last year's Super Bowl. I think Brandon talked about this every year. You should always bet defensive touchdown, either team, right? Special teams, if you can get it. I know that the juice is different on them, but that's another bet where if I'm doing what Chad's talking about, like if I'm betting the Seahawks and having fun with the laddering up, I'm gonna throw defensive or special teams touchdown in there. You gotta do it because it's like Drake May 2nd year quarterback. That's gonna be part of our, our vision, right, Chad, if we're gonna have a blowout here, we expect there maybe do a pick six or a kick return. So that's like we keep saying the wildest, most fun ideas you can have. Throw it in. They got a number for you. Do it. Just take it easy with the bankroll. Don't be going crazy on these parlays, right? If, if you're a hundred dollar better on the super bowl, do one or two dollar parlays, right? And just do a ton of them. It's just fun because all of a sudden you wake up Monday morning, it's like, holy, I won a thousand bucks and I won two bets. And that's, that's what we're looking for, right? These crazy long shots.
- [29:42]
Chad Millman
All right, Brandon Simon just mentioned the magic words. Defensive special teams touchdown. How are we thinking about betting? Just defensive props.
- [29:52]
Brandon Anderson
Yeah. This to me is a set it and forget it super bowl bet. Like you can bring me on next year. And I'm just going to give it these exact same bets out with different teams and names. Defenses score in the super bowl. We have 22 defensive touchdowns in the Super bowl, at least one in 19 out of the 59. So about one in three. 13 defensive touchdowns the last 24. So that's over a half touchdown defensively per game. And this matchup, it's been defense all season, Seattle's defense all year, Patriots defense. All playoffs and Seattle have the second most giveaways in the regular season. So if our script goes wrong, we're all feeling good about Seattle. But if we're wrong, why does it go wrong? Darnold turned it over like that's the reason. And it probably was a pick six the other way and you get a four and a half point spread. One touchdown that the weird oblong ball bounced the wrong way. Seven free points between two great teams. Yeah, you're probably going to get a different sort of turnout there. So I will say betting defense, betting special teams. Make sure to watch at the book because sometimes you get the defense touchdown, sometimes you get the D/ST. That's what you want. You want the special teams in this one. These teams had eight special teams touchdowns this season. There are 13 special teams touchdowns in the Super Bowl. No punt returns yet. Maybe we'll get one here. But you want special teams as well. You can just bet. Keep it easy. Either team defense or special teams touchdown. Plus 265. Keep it easy. That's 27%. There are 35 defense special team touchdowns in the Super Bowls. That's 59% implied. So that's basically more than double the odds that we're getting there. But I like to get more aggressive because almost always the team that gets the defense touchdown is the winning team. Makes sense, right? Like that's the free points. You got 22 defense touchdowns. All but three are the winning team. So you build two separate parlays and I'm playing both. Seattle defense, special teams touchdown with the Seattle moneyline, plus 833. Patriots defense, special team touchdown with their money line plus 2700. You both together, it's like plus 600 implied. It's double the value, what we should be getting here. And then also defenders can win MVP. We've had 10 defensive MVP. More defense than running back, more defense than receiver. It's about one every seven in the Super Bowl. Defensive MVP, you can get just at 15 to one every defender. I get half the guys on the field at 15 to 1. What can you like about that? That's 6% implied. It's like two and a half times what the history implies there. So I like defensive MVP. And then this is. This is my one $2 bet that Simon just talking about. If I'm doing all that, I have to take some stabs at glory and come up with who's the exact defender. I'm going to be wrong. But one year randomly, I'm going to be right. So here's my three guys. Marcus Jones for the Patriots, 150 to 1. He's the third cornerback. He had four picks this year. Two of them return for a touchdown to punt returns for touchdown. So I get the bonus there. I don't want the best player. I want splash plays. Give me the upside with Marcus Jones and of course I want Seattle guys to Marcus Lawrence, 150 to 1. He had a sack each game. The playoffs. He has three force fumbles in two games up against Will Campbell. We like that matchup a lot. And then Ernest Jones, 200 to 1. Three of the four defensive Super Bowl MVPs the century are linebackers. He led the team and tackles by 30 this season. Led the team in interceptions. We think New England is going to get a lot of pressure and a lot of short passes, a lot of dump off stuff there. Is your linebacker ready to just jump in the middle of the lane. You get the desperate pass late. He's housing it the other way. And wouldn't this be the team if we're not sure about Darnold? If JSN doesn't have a huge game, don't we want a Seattle defender to be the MVP to represent who Seattle has been about? So I like betting defense in the super bowl, but I especially like it this year.
- [33:49]
Chad Millman
I love this. I love this all. I can't wait to bet every single one of these because they also all align with what I'm looking for in the super bowl right now, which is Seattle to dominate. So other than the Patriots, defensive, special teams and Moneyline, everything you're saying is just pure glory. We talked a little bit about escalators, Brandon. I wanted your take on that because you are so good at doing the escalators outside of the Seahawks. Give me an idea. Like the most fun bet you can make in the super bowl as escalators. Yeah.
- [34:27]
Brandon Anderson
Yeah. So I think the most fun bet you can make, although slight disclaimer, I call this the most fun bet on championship Sunday. And I bet it and then it got hooked and missed by half a yard. But we're going back to the well and having the most fun a second time. I think it's Rashid Shahid as a runner. This is the dude they went out and traded for the deadline and we're going to run it back. Rashid Shahid, rushing yards. Over two and a half rushing yards. It's the most fun because not only are you betting two and a half yards, you're waiting for one play. We're getting. We get one shot at this. In all likelihood the entire Super Bowl. We're waiting for the one gadget but you know, we're getting the trick play the reverse that the weird sort of play that you've been holding back the whole entire season. Shahida's a rushing attempt in eight of 11 Seahawks games. They're using him as a runner. They're using him kind of like Percy Harvin. You might get like the backwards pass screen. That counts as a run. So we want a rushing attempt. We got to start there. And he's gone over two and a half yards. Five of 11 games. So not quite the number that we'd want there. But that also includes a two yard game. And then last game was a zero. I bet him over 0.5 yards and. And he had a run over to the side and he had a yard. He just stepped out of bounds to avoid the hit like a pansy. Get the yard hit my bet for me. So over two and a half yards. Rashid Shahid, you owe me money this year. And the Patriots allowed more rushing yards to receivers than any team in the NFL this season. 149. They allowed seven double digit runs to a wide receiver. This year they allowed a 31. Shahida's had a 30 and a 31 for Seattle. So I haven't seen it yet. But if you get longest rush numbers for Rashid Shahid. Longest rush escalator, a 10 or 20. A 30 if it gets a long one. What I have seen is you can just bet what player will have the longest rush in the game. Rashid Shahid. 30 to 1. If we don't think New England's gonna run the ball well and we think Walker might get bottle up a little bit, I think like 15, 20 yards could get it done. We get one shot. But man, when you're watching at the super bowl party and you're waiting, that's the third quarter. You're like Brandon said, one shot. I know we're getting a run. And then you get the end around and Shaheeds getting the ball. Oh man. That the. The juice you're feeling in that moment when you have one chance to hit these Shaheed bats. That's the most fun you can have on Super Bowl Sunday.
- [36:50]
Simon Hunter
Again, the super bowl is very dumb. Last last year my favorite bet ever was saquon was minus 300 to be had the most rushing yards in The Super Bowl 10 to 1 was Jalen Hurts. That's who led the super bowl in the most rushing yards last year. So it's just, I love the idea Just think outside the box, people. Weird things happen. Is super bowl can get so wacky. It's the best.
- [37:12]
Chad Millman
Well, let's talk about Kenneth Walker also because, yeah, I've been betting all week. I said last week I liked Kenneth Walker over his receiving yardage total. Brandon, you've got some Kenneth Walker props that you like as well. Again, I didn't even know you were going to say this, but you're just going out of your way to make me feel good.
- [37:37]
Brandon Anderson
That's. That's what you brought me on here for, Chad. I like to make you look good. Yeah, Walker, I've been betting his receiving in the playoffs. I hit this against San Francisco. Now obviously Charbonnet is out, so we should get even more Kenneth Walker on the field. So last 10 games his receiving has gone away up 2.7 catches, 28 yards. I know that doesn't sound like much, but before that, 1.2 catches for nine yards. All right, that's triple the yardage in the last 10 games compared to what he was early. And he's gone from 1.3 targets a game to 3.1 targets a game. Again, that's more than double what we're getting there. And again, if we're looking at the script, what's the script here? We might see some New England pressure up the middle. That is one weak spot for Seattle is the interior of the line. Well, if you get pressure, what do you need? You need the veteran running back who's going to be on the field. You need a quick outlet to dump off, get him into space, and I'm doing his thing. Patriots allowed the fifth most running back receptions on the season. 12 running backs had three or more catches against the Patriots. So I like Chad, I like the receptions bet as my base here. Over two and a half receptions. He's had three catches or more in seven of the last 10. But I think you're right to look at the yardage as well because in those seven games when he has three catches or more, he's averaging 39 yards a game. He's at 29 yards or more, six of the seven. So I'm going to skip your 20 yards that you're going for and I'm going to play my escalator on yardage here, 30 yards plus 160. So maybe add that onto your yardage. You get the receptions and because I like receptions as the higher play, because we could hit this with one. You just need one catch and then he pass a long one and you might hit the yardage as well. Even if you miss the receptions number.
- [39:20]
Chad Millman
I mean I'm in. I'm all in Brandon. That's exactly what I'm looking for. What can you tell me about anything on the Patriots offensive side of the ball? If we are expecting this to be the kind of game where the Patriots are trying to make a comeback, what are we looking at?
- [39:39]
Brandon Anderson
Yeah, I think that the one, not the one but one angle I do like for the Patriots if they can sustain it. The Seattle defense is kind of league average defending short passes. That's by design. They want that. If you're going to check it down and go on these 12 play 14 play check down drives. Seattle says we're going to live with that because guess what, we're going to hit you Drake and we're going to get you to make a mistake somewhere along the way. So I think you want somebody to catch short passes. And I've been playing New England's running back receptions as well. Ramondra Stevenson, but they cut onto that one. They move that line up to where I think Kenneth Walker should be. It's three and a half receptions now. So I'm going to go to the tight end. Tight ends against Seattle has been a good thing on the season. Seattle has since week 8 not allowed a 50 yard wide receiver to anyone. But again the rams they allowed 52 to Puka Nakua about four times a game and now one. But anyone else? No 50 yards. But running backs and tight ends are getting more. Look, Seattle is allowed a 24% target rate to tight ends on the season. Their top six in most yards and receptions allowed to tight ends. So Hunter Henry I think is in for a good game here. Not a huge game because again we like Seattle but you can be a tight end and just kind of chew up some yards and catches on some short stuff down the field. Henry's only had six catches in the playoffs but we already know New England's offense has sucked in the playoffs. We had these weird weather games. They're just running all week. I don't really make too much of that over three and a half catches he's had in nine of 17 regular season games. So just about half. But again I looked at that one. Three and a half receptions is minus 140 for the over. I don't love doing a minus 140. You guys know I want to have the plus juice on something. So I said okay, if he gets those catches. How about the yards? Again similar to the Walker thing, we just said look at the yards he's had 39 yards or more. Just over half of his games. 11 out of the 20. So I like over 39 and a half Hunter Henry yards. It's plus 105 at one book. Basically you just need 40 yards here. Saddles allowed 40 to a tight end. 10 regular season games and both playoff games so far, even though they've had these dominating wins. 40 yards to a tight end in both games. Henry has only had two games this year where he had four catchers or more. So you would hit the receptions but under 45. But he's had four games where he had fewer catches than that but still hit the 40 and over. So again, skip the receptions and go for the yards and then I'll do the escalator there as well. So over 39 and a half, but 50 yards plus 155. Seattle's allowed that 12 times already this season. Henry's done 49 yards or more eight times this season and it's a little nibble. Probably not. Probably this is not great for our Seattle side, but 80 yards plus 630. Henry does have a 90 and 150 in this season. Seattle's allowed an 84 times. So probably not a bet you want to Parlay with Seattle -25. Do you think Henry can have a big game?
- [42:42]
Chad Millman
All right, Simon, anything we're missing, we got to give out our final picks. But before we let Brandon go, anything we're missing, any bets you're thinking about, anything we haven't touched, anything we need to get Brandon's take on or that we want to share?
- [42:55]
Simon Hunter
No, I mean, I love it. It's like again, just keep using your imagination for building these parlays. If you're taking that Henry bet, drake may over 20 completions, over 31 pass attempts. Throw them in there. Like again, just keep building it out, people. You're trying to write your own script for the game and you're putting money behind it. And in your idea it might sound crazy and then your favorite team, which I experience, wins a Super by 30 points and has a defensive touchdown in. It's like you build these bets because it comes through. It's. It sounds wacky and you're doing. It's like, ah, this will never hit. They hit. That's what like I feel like he's giving you guys a script right now of. I mean like we didn't even. I didn't look at the script. I didn't mean to step on him with a defensive touchdown one. But that's when I yeah, you know I blindly play it every year and it happens like I know we just got one last year but I mean it's the NFL, these things happening too. So yeah, I, I, I love it all. So yeah, people can tell how fired up I'm, I'm, I'm already ready for Sunday and I got three more days Chad, just to try to make it to the Sunday.
- [43:54]
Brandon Anderson
I love the I love that my favorite team wins by 30 in the Super Bowl. Just nonchalant he says to a Vikings fan and a Bears fan. Like we have any idea what that means one day.
- [44:05]
Simon Hunter
Don't give credit to Chad. He's been insufferable about the users. Don't give him any love right now. He's, he's on a different stratosphere.
- [44:12]
Chad Millman
It's been so hard for me these past few weeks. Brandon Anderson. Read them. Listen to him. Follow him at the Action Network in the Action Network app. Thanks for coming on buddy.
- [44:24]
Brandon Anderson
Thanks guys.
- [44:25]
Chad Millman
All right Simon, gotta give out our final five picks for the contest. Tuesday we will announce the grand prize winner of the Sharper Square Pro Football Pick him contest. Again, thanks to everybody for playing it just it's fun to get people together and compete with each other and have a good time to to talk about it. Our five official super bowl contest picks. Are you ready? Seattle minus four and a half first half New England plus three and a half we're going to give a little bit of logic on all these over under we're going with the total under 45 and a half. We're going with Drake May completions over 19 and a half and we're going with Ramandre Stevenson. Total rush yards under 53 and a half. Anybody who's hearing that can see that we believe the script is going to be Seattle wins this game. Patriots are going to have to make a comeback in this game. Not a lot of rushing attempts for Stevenson. Not a lot, not a lot of opportunities and Drake made with a lot of short check down passes with Brandon Anderson. Just talked about as being sort of the one thing the Seahawks like to give up. Feel like everything we picked Brandon Anderson helped buttress our thinking.
- [46:04]
Simon Hunter
Yeah hopefully we're we are right about how we think the ship's gonna go here but it just, it feels like that type of game right they when he broke it down that you know there's a lot of numbers backing up what we're saying. We don't just blindly want to take this huge public favorite right. There's got to be Numbers and things behind it to back it up. And I found tons of stuff that backed up argument. And he's just adding to it. Right. A lot of those numbers he gave out, that's great data and it's just. You can whine and complain all you want if you're a Patriots fan, that's real numbers. Like that's nothing you could push up back again. So, yeah, when I look at this matchup and how I think it's going to go, we. I asked Chad if I could put that/3, and a half Patriots first half number in there because to me that's, that number's not right. Especially you're talking about Drake May, who this season is like 171 or 162 against the spread in the first half. He's been incredible. I want to take a position on that.
- [47:03]
Brandon Anderson
Right.
- [47:03]
Simon Hunter
Even though I think Seattle has a huge chance of blowout and win this game big time, I do think it could be a feeling out process in the first half. And that's, that's a big number. Three and a half. That feels like a gift by our contest because most books have already moved to three two and a half. So we're getting sucked in a little bit here because of the hook. Can't pass up on that, the three and a half. So I appreciate. Chad, let me get this New England plus three and a half in there. We're definitely trying to thread the needle. Taking the, the Seattle full game and the New England Patriots first half.
- [47:32]
Chad Millman
We're partners, buddy. We're in it together forever. Schlamizel. Schlamazel. We're like Laverne and Shirley. We're Milwaukee's finest.
- [47:44]
Simon Hunter
And I'll be completely honest, it would hurt to lose that, that Patriots bet, obviously in the first half. But if the Seahawks are up by 25, me and Chad aren't gonna be crying. That's, that's our dream scenario. So it's an emotional hedge as well. Yeah, it's a great number, but it's also, you know, we're, we're, we're happy either way. And I just, I look at this game and as much as I want to believe Seattle's gonna come out hot and fast and put up a ton of points, we talked about Rabel's a great coach. I think he's gonna have his guys ready, prepared. So I'm excited to see the chess match. That's going to be QBAC figuring out the next move against rabel and how McDaniels goes against, you know, McDonald's incredible defense that the Seahawks team has. So yeah, I I really can't wait for the Super Bowl. It's going to be a great matchup. I know like we said, there's not a bunch of people aren't going crazy about it right now, but I think as it gets closer to kickoff, people well, this is a great matchup.
- [48:35]
Chad Millman
I hope Kubiak doesn't start daydreaming about Fernando Mendoza in the middle of the game because I know what that affliction is like. It happens to me. At least. At least an hour of my day, every day is spent dreaming about Fernando Mendoza and watching new compilation videos of his touchdown run. That's it. I cannot lie. Kubiak might have that running on a on a just like on a real as he's trying to call plays for this game. Simon Chat's choice was Seattle minus four and a half or no minus six and a half. Brass balls was Patriots first drive punt. Patriots first drive punt, Simon says, was the under in the first quarter. I think we had eight and a half. Look, I think we've made it pretty clear we're on seat, we're on Seattle. I'm in a lot of Seattle alts and every other prop I'm on is basically a narrative in which Seattle is winning the game and New England is losing the game and some outlier things happening. So I'm excited to see how all of this plays out. We will be back on Tuesday. This has been Sharper Square. Thank you so much for joining us here for our first season on the Volume Podcast Network as Sharper Square. We launched in a hurry, but everyone joined us and that is a gift. Thank you to Matt Mitchell, our producer. Thank you to Andrew Sampson, who kicked us off as our producer before Matt Mitchell joined us. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify. Andrew, Andrew, Apple Pod, wherever you get your pods. Rate Review, Subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until our Tuesday super bowl recap show. Love you.
- [50:38]
Advertisement/Announcer
Well, right now, Pat, the hoopla's over. You know, they've waited maybe all their lives to be in this Super Bowl. They've waited two weeks since their last championship game. They're in those locker rooms now. You just want to bust out of that locker room and get on this field and get it started with this.
- [50:54]
Chad Millman
Is an I Heart podcast. Guaranteed human.