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- [00:00]
Spencer Aguiar
This is an Iheart podcast.
- [00:02]
Chad
Guaranteed human. If you've been sitting on a business idea for a while, consider this the sign to take action. It can even be made official today by creating a website with Wix Harmony. Just tell WIX Harmony what you want and it will build the entire site, business features included and everything can still be edited by hand. It's your website, your call. Try it@wix.com that's wix.com you're locked into
- [00:33]
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- [00:34]
Spencer Aguiar
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- [01:03]
Colin Coward
it's Colin Coward from the Colin Coward Podcast. Every goal starts with an assist. As Official partners of U.S. soccer, this team is ready to deliver. Sensodyne dentist recommended defense of your sensitive teeth. Centrum Fueling your day with science backed nutrients. Advil of course. Powerful inflammation fighting pain relief. Voltaren Arthritis gel helps penetrate deep, keeps the joints moving and tums ready to counterattack with fast heartburn relief. Learn how Halion can assist your game day goals@helionassist.com Con this is Jeff T
- [01:37]
Jeff T
from the Club 520 podcast. This is a performance you do not want to miss. The Dell xps powered by Intel Core Ultra. It's got the sauce, we're talking speed, style, stamina, bam. And a long lasting battery life unheard of in this league. Look at the hustle. Is there anything a laptop can't do? The Dell XPS Built for those who have the right moves.
- [01:58]
Simon Hunter
Find yours@dell.com XPS built for you.
- [02:06]
Chad
Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rodbet. We are part of the Voluum Podcast network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Shad mom and I am joined as always by my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professor, professional better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon.
- [02:27]
Jeff T
Chad.
- [02:28]
Simon Hunter
I can't believe it. Was that the first weekend we've ever texted about soccer in our entire lives?
- [02:32]
Chad
Crazy, right? So yeah, me, you And Debundo, Anthony De Bundo were texting about Morocco tying Spain. I was in this. I was in New York over the weekend. My kid had graduated from college in Philly on Friday, and then I went into the city on Saturday and me and our good friend Seth Wickersham and another good friend of ours went to see Bono interview Bruce Springsteen at the Tribeca Film Festival. But really all we were doing was trying to find bars before and after to watch World cup and then watch more World cup and then watch the Knicks. And I was in some bar watching Morocco. They went up on Spain and me, you and Dabundo started texting because holy shit, that was amazing.
- [03:23]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it was. It's. If you're a span a fan like we are of all sports and obviously of all things, betting doesn't get much better than this past weekend, right? You had the NHL finals, the NBA finals and the World Cup. And I mean, I, I know people probably. It's a little late now, but you know, as a fan of soccer, that was the biggest USA win ever. And people can say, well, they've gone further. I don't think Americans understand how big of a deal it is to beat that Paraguay team. And that's why all these international people are like, what in the world? Because Paraguay, their last 10 games, they didn't conceded more than one goal, let alone four. And the pressure that was on that USA team playing, you know, that own goal obviously helped a lot, right? It helped them relax and you could say all that, but that just felt like a game that could easily flat fell in their face, right? The, the hype, the atmosphere, it was all built so high. I just can't get over it. USA winning that 4:1 and yeah, some of that. Love soccer. The. I don't know if you've any watching of the COVID that's on Fox Sports. It's Terry Henry and this guy named Ibrahimovic and yeah, yeah, yeah, I love Ibrahimovic. He's like one of my favorite players ever. Actually. I could sing a song, Chad, if you want a song. Rare chance of me actually singing English song.
- [04:40]
Chad
Oh, my goodness, please.
- [04:43]
Simon Hunter
Americans don't really get it. Like he's half joking and he's also being dead serious. This man truly thinks he's the greatest player ever. And he is God. And to me he is one of the best players ever. But when he played for Man United, I went to a few games. When he was actually on the team is when I was really into Man United. I literally would just fly from Philly you can fly direct to Man Man United to Manchester. I'd go to a game on Saturday, be back home by Sunday. And my favorite songs. I don't know if it's age appropriate, so if you're listening with your kids, take a quick 30 second break here. But it goes 6 foot 5, hard as gets the Reds excited. Stick city up your ass because we are Man United. We are Man United. Was a great, great player. He came from Man United basically first season and got injured and that was all she wrote. But he was just an all time great player. So him on the coverage, even him and Henri again, these are the best players in the world. They were stunned after that USA game. That's what I'm trying to wrap around, people, how big of a deal it was. So yeah, it's, this could be as good as it gets. I hope it isn't right. Australia is the next test. It's gonna be a great game and I'm really confident our side and our squad, but that was as good as the game you could possibly have for United. So right now, as a fan of the World Cup, I'm loving it. And obviously the Knicks won and that had all the Brazilian fans in the city like that whole, the whole part of the World cup and all these international fans being here. Like I, I said, I didn't feel it wasn't feeling in Philly. I felt that this past weekend, like the Ecuadorian fans taking over the city of Philadelphia, they're everywhere. It's, it's been really, really cool. And I'm, I'm just so happy. They spread it out, right? We have a month left of this, right? So it's, it's just the beginning. You can tell how fired up I am. It's just been such a fun weekend in sports. I'm gonna miss, gonna miss basketball and hockey, but thank God we have the World Cup. Chad.
- [06:37]
Chad
Well, look, the city was on fire, sometimes literally on Saturday. Kudos to Jason Timf, by the way, because we had him on the show host of Hoops Tonight, the podcast on the Volume Podcast network. And we consistently tried to push him into taking the Spurs. You and I both decided we were on the spurs in seven for sort of this specific bet and he would not back away. He, he thought the Knicks could sweep this. He then moved it to Knicks and six just because I think there was a little hedging there. But he never once wavered from the Knicks. And even I, as someone who on this show talked about how much I hate the Knicks, I came Around Brunson is so fun to root for. Mike Brown is so fun to root for. This team is really special in terms of how they connect with people who are watching basketball and how they connected with the city of New York. I mean, look, I think Bono and Springsteen was the lowlight of my day on Saturday between. It's one of those great days that you don't get anymore. Especially like when you're older and have kids where me and Seth and another good buddy of ours named Phil, who is one of Seth's closest friends from high school, who I've known forever, like, we got to go start drinking at like three in the afternoon. And like we were at a legendary bar in Tribeca called Walkers. Then we went to the event, then we went to another bar, then we went to dinner, then we went to another bar to watch the game. And it was just. You just felt light and free and like there was so much joy in the city. It was really, it's freaking remarkable. It was great. Totally.
- [08:19]
Simon Hunter
I won't give props to New York City. Like for a city that has the most people in the world in a concentrated area, wasn't all that bad afterwards when it happened at the time I was like, oh my God, they're gonna burn that city to the ground. End up not being that terrible. The craziest part was someone posted a video of the night before. They're on the street, cars are burning. It's like a riot, all this chaos. And it was him. At the next morning, 9am, little tables outside, people eating breakfast. The New York. Only in New York City where 12 hours later you would never know there was just a ride on the street. So yeah, just an incredible weekend.
- [08:50]
Chad
I gotta say, it was probably less violence than a normal Saturday night. Honest. Honest to God. Because like everyone was so happy and joyful and focused on that. It wasn't sort of dispersed violence that there normally is in New York. I thought it was amazing. It was great. And correct. Congrats to the Knicks. Congrats to the Knicks fans. I have been watching all the videos of like how joyful people are and sports is the best. Anytime you get jaded about sports, something like this happens and it's just, just freaking awesome. And guess what, Simon. We get another chance to celebrate sports in the great state of New York for the six time golf's most challenging tournament, the US Open is returning to the Hamptons. The US Open tees off on Thursday at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Long Island. We're going to be covering it from every betting angle. With returning guest Spencer Aguiar, two time Fantasy Sports Writer Association Golf writer of the Year, last year's winner of research article of the Year. We've had him on before. He, he is one of the smartest golf guys we've had on. Spencer from Las Vegas. How you doing, brother?
- [10:05]
Spencer Aguiar
I'm doing well, thank you. I appreciate you guys having me on again. I will say this, Simon, beautiful singing to lead into the show. I'm probably, I don't know what the odds would be on it, plus a billion to actually sing on this show. So if you guys can get me to do that, that's the big money ticket to have out there.
- [10:23]
Chad
Well, let's see if we can get you in by the end of the show. Spencer Shinnecock, gorgeous course number five in Golf Digest, Golf magazine's top 100 golf courses in the world, can also make for a miserable, brutal U.S. open course. Fit is always important when you're talking about golf. It's become a really important metric for betters. What stands out in terms of the factors? What kind of play is going to be rewarded or punished?
- [10:58]
Spencer Aguiar
Yeah, you kind of mentioned at the beginning like Shinnecock is widely regarded as one of the best championship tests that we get in this country. And I, I think it's a funny answer when you consider that if we look at 2018, the last time it was played here, on average on the PGA Tour, players hit about 60% of the fairways. Here you get 71 of a made fairway rate and you hear that answer and you would think that there's going to be the straightforward setup for ease. Accuracy is going to be the number one answer to the game, which in fairness it is, but a lot of that is deeply rooted into. You just cannot miss. And we see this over and over again of where you take that 30% rate of people missing the fairway and you're essentially dead off the tee. There's this 5 inch thick fescue rough. If you are wayward, it's a 7440 yard layout, which means that if you're going to be conservative off the tee, now all of a sudden your second shot finds these secondary problems here into these fiery green complexes because you are laying back off the tee and you're not getting the most out of your first shot. So you know, for me, when I look at this venue and I'm somebody that wishes we had more data to be able to pull from, you can pull from 2018, you can pull from 2004 but the, the course is marginally different. They made the fairways a little bit wider this go around and I do wonder from a statistical perspective if that changes anything. Like if, if players like Bryson DeChambeau and Rory McElroy really decide to get aggressive off the tee and kind of do this risk reward and, and see if it pays off and you know, we'll see if it does or it doesn't. But when I ran a model for this, the number one thing that I noticed is good shots are going to get rewarded, bad shots get punished. And to answer your question, Chad, I don't know if there's a specific game type that is the most geared to find success. And, and for me when we are putting together mathematical equations and trying to figure out the answer, I think that's why people love this tournament so much because you can be accurate and you can find success. You can be good around the green, you can be a good putter. As long as you're good in some of those areas, you kind of have this blueprint for success. So you know, of, of the four majors I would say, and you know, we'll play into the name of the show here, like this is probably one of the sharper majors that you can find for betters. I think if you're trying to be a square better out there, the Masters, the Open Championship are probably the two that kind of yield that for whatever reason this historically and this is when I, you guys mentioned at the beginning when I won best research article. What I talked about is how the data played into every single tournament and where the sharps and the squares landed for everything and where you could find more success over a five year period. And the US Open was the most sharp test of any of the majors. So I think that comes down to just overall skill and finding the right players. And you can do that at a U.S. open where you can't do that at some of these other majors as easily.
- [14:08]
Chad
What about wind? It's supposed to be nice here on the east coast, but is wind going to be an issue?
- [14:15]
Spencer Aguiar
Wind's always prevalent when you are on a coast. I was, I'm trying to figure out the best way to word this to your guys's audience. Like I think if we threw this into football terms, golf is really unique at the end of the day because in football you know who somebody's playing against. There's factors that come into play, there's game scripts that change because of the weather. In golf, it's not quite as simple as that, yes, you are playing against the field and you know who you are, but you're also playing against the course and yourself. And when you look at weather specifically for these examples, t times matter and, and I think sometimes they matter too much to, to people that are running models, like I always say to people inside of my discord, like, if you're waiting on the exact t tee time of a player, you're gonna end up missing the movement. Like, you kind of have to be quick to act in a lot of these situations in golf. But golf, unlike a lot of these other sports, do have the chance to where you can get yourself blown off the course if you get into the wrong end of the weather. So one of the ways that I tried to combat that, or I always try to combat that is I just have an overall weather profile in my model. There's a 10 to 20% weight that I did throw into some of those weather categories. There are going to be some players that are going to get the good end of the draw. There are some players that are going to get the bad end of the draw. But at the end of the day, two things happen. First, everybody's going to get bad weather on the coast. It's, it's, it's going to be one of those things where it's going to come and go. Two, I'm going to make enough bets to where even if you get some of them wrong, you're hoping that what you're building from a mathematical perspective is going to put you on the right end on enough of these situations. So it's gonna matter. It's. I don't want to come on here and be like, don't look at the weather. The weather matters. But I also think it's so baked in to a lot of the movement that it almost becomes like a negative in the grand scheme of it.
- [16:19]
Chad
Yeah.
- [16:20]
Simon Hunter
You can test to a chad. It's been honestly dry in the northeast. It's, we, we've really needed rain and most our storms we're getting lately it's been the one hour quick hitters. It's not really prolonged rain. So I, I'm always into their range, especially when it comes to golf. It does matter, right? Like you're talking about, it does affect the playing course. And some guys teeing off at the wrong time can affect their game totally. But just look at the odds right now at hard Rock. There's three golf players right now listed with better odds in 1401.
- [16:46]
Chad
Right.
- [16:46]
Simon Hunter
We have Rom 1401, Rory, 11 oh, 1 and Scotty A plus 550. Is it still just Scheffler's game? We're all just, are we just going chalky or are we, are we thinking about the other guys that are 40 like the other, you know, eight. Eight other players under 40 to one occurrence? You don't like anyone. That whole group.
- [17:04]
Spencer Aguiar
I rarely give this answer of going near the top of the board in situations. I usually try to find value in golf and that, that comes further down the board. And I will say this for major championships it's, it's one of the things that you will notice. There's almost a stigma attached to all these events where the general public does not believe anybody but the top names are going to win. And a lot of times that if you are going to get drift on it's going to come into that triple digit zone of a lot of those names that get pushed back 10, 20 points higher than they should be. And I think that sportsbooks condense the top of the board into kind of unbettable ranges a lot of times to where you're probably going to get the winner from there. But you get this heavily juice board where there's a ton of hold percentage that you're finding. And I kind of thought that was going to be the case at least a couple weeks ago. And it's kind of changed for me. When I built my model this go around I, I kind of think Scotty's going to win this golf tournament. And there has been this. Scotty was 3 to 1 to win every golf tournament for almost the first three months of the year. And he's underachieved. And he's underachieved in a really weird way because from a statistical perspective I ran things for the last 24 rounds and, and the last time I came on, I talked about how I run my model longer than most people do. I, I like to have that long term outlook. I don't want that short term stuff that to inflate or deflate numbers on it. But with Scotty, the stigma around him right now is that he cannot find success. He is struggling. You see him yelling at his caddy, you see him having these outbursts. He's having outbursts on media members, he's having outbursts on, on pretty much everybody who's getting around him. And I think that what that has done is it has inflated a price now for Scotty. And when I ran the numbers I wanted to look at the short term outlook here and for, for Scotty over the last 24 rounds. Even without any of the victories and even without some of this high end success that we expect from him, he is still far and away the number one golfer in my model. I, I ran seven statistical categories from various degrees of range of time. Scotty was number one and substantially number one in every single area. And I kind of go back to that last 24 rounds of him being substantially number one there. While everybody wants to talk about what we've seen from Fitzpatrick and what we've seen from Cameron Young and some of those names and sure, like I like Fitzpatrick this week, I think that this is this prototypical sort of a course for him where he can find success and there's a handful of names that probably make logical sense to go back. But I took the, the more bullish route on Scotty. And if you shop around, you can find this number six and a half, seven to one in some locations. And like I said, it's not something that I normally do, but I am playing the chalk here with Scotty and I, and I think that it kind of goes back to the answer that I said at the very beginning that if there's no specific skill set that it's rewarding and it's just rewarding good shots. Scotty is the best player in the world at picking a target, hitting a spot and doing what he needs to do to find success. And when we don't have these 30 under par winners and the US Open is going to deliver something that's closer to even par to win this, that's kind of the Scottie Scheffler blueprint, where I think he's more likely to win one of those tournaments.
- [20:31]
Chad
I love that we're talking about Scottie Scheffler underachieving when he just finished second at the Masters. Let's do a quick word from Hard Rock bet. Today's show was brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock bet. Floridus Sportsbook, the world's biggest soccer tournament is here. Everyone is watching. National pride is on the line. Superstars chasing immortality. And for the next month, every match feels like a final. If you haven't tried Hard Rock BET yet, there's no better time to get in the game. Hard Rock BET is the top rated sportsbook app built to viva la Copa. And if you're ever late to kickoff, don't worry. Hard Rock BET lets you live BET all match long from the first minute to the final whistle. Plus, Hard Rock BET has new promos daily. We're talking profit boosts. No sweat bets, bonus bets and more. And be sure to check out no goals, no Problem and Super Sub two promos designed to give your bets insurance all tournament long. Sign up with Hard Rock Bet today in place of $5 bet. If it wins, you also score $150 in bonus bets, a winning bet plus an extra $150 to bet with. Now that's how you get this summer's party started. Download the Hard Rock Bet app today. Roll with us. Go with us. Hard Rock Bet payable and bonus bets Not a cash offer Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida Offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC in Florida. All other states must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play, terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1833, playwise in Indiana. If you or someone you know is a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809 with it in Arizona, Ohio and Virginia, call 1-800-my reset gambling problem, call 1-800- gambler in Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Tennessee vibe coding is everywhere right now, but it's not just for apps anymore. Now it's making its way into website creation. WIX has introduced Wix Harmony, a Vibe coder for websites that lets you type what you want and generate a site ready to use right away, complete with forms, payments, security and more built in. And WIX Harmony doesn't require AI for everything. You can still click and edit anything manually, or select an element and have Aria, your AI agent, make updates for you. It's a smart solution, to the frustration of repeatedly prompting AI just to make small changes. Try it for free@wix.com that's wix.com you
- [23:21]
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- [24:19]
Jeff T
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- [25:00]
Colin Coward
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- [25:55]
Chad
Beyond the outrights, you've come on the show and given out some really thoughtful ideas about betting head to head, finishing in position markets. What are you targeting in those groups right now?
- [26:10]
Spencer Aguiar
Yeah, I don't have a ton of matchup exposures so far this week. I mean the one that I did back in, I think unfortunately the number has moved pretty heavily across the board. But I'll give it on the show for one reason because I think that there's ways to back this player and maybe fade the other one. But I took Siwu Kim over Justin Rose. Two parts to this. The first one is Siwoo Kim. This is a player, if we're talking about underachieving and where the market is on him, I think this is a top 10 golfer in the world. And because we don't have a victory from him this season, the market doesn't necessarily treat him as that. Like, he opened at 51 to win this golf tournament, which I think in fairness, is a pretty good look there at 50 to 1 without that victory. And I kind of made the argument, if Siwu had won once, what would his price be? You could probably chop this into like the 30 to 1 range. And he's been in contention so many times to win so many of these tournaments. Give him a second victory, and all of a sudden now you're in like that Matthew Fitzpatrick sort of a range. And that's kind of where my model has Si Woo Kim when it comes to win equity. So I think you get the good end of Siwoo Kim there and then Justin Rose is a name that tends to burn me in major championships sometimes. Like we saw it at the Masters, we saw it at the PGA Championship. You know, I talked about the Masters specifically being like the most square tournament where it feels like square bettors kind of get the right end of some of these Justin Rose spots. You look at Justin Rose, yeah, there's a lot of upside. A matchup bet. You want safety at the end of the day. Rose has missed four of his last five cuts at the US Open. And I think it's this boomer bust profile that he presents to the mix. So when this opened in that minus 120 range, I thought that was way too short. Unfortunately, the market agreed and that thing is kind of ballooned up. But whether it's a fade of Rose or a backing of Siwu, I think that's something that you can look at. And then the other one I will give is a made cut bet, and it's. It's a plus number here. So if you're, if you're looking for a little bit of value, Andrew Putnam to make the cut at plus 105. This is a golfer that is not going to be a household name to people, but it's a golfer that also had been just stringing together, made cuts over and over again. And I had him at the PGA Championship at a very similar price and ends up making the weekend falters on Saturday and Sunday to 55th place. But cash is the ticket. We see him last week miss the cut at the RBC Canadian Open. And I think it's that classic situation of like you like to see the ball go through the hoop right before one of the biggest tournaments of the year. You don't want to have a 5 over round that you shoot and miss a cut. But I think in this particular situation, one, it enhanced the price here at plus 105. So you get a little bit of value because of that miscut. And then the second thing that transpired is the US Open is a really fun event because there's qualifying into this tournament and your high end names are going to get in based off of their ranking. But a lot of these other guys that are good golfers have to qualify their way in, whether that be through the sectionals or regionals and then to the very end of this. And on the Monday before the US Open, that's when the final qualifiers are held. So Andrew Putnam went out, played 36 holes that day, does not get himself qualified yet, has to go back out on Tuesday to qualify again, plays 45 holes in those two days. And look, the number of holes is not the problem here. It's the prep into the RBC Canadian Open. So he ends up qualifying for the US Open, gets there on Tuesday night for the RBC Canadian, ends up shooting five over, bounces back on Friday, which is I think the positive to this whole thing. I just think it's a fluky miscut at the end of the day. And at +105, I thought this was an interesting price that I had closer to minus 120 for him to make it. So I mean anytime I can get 25 points of value on something like that, I'm always going to take it.
- [30:13]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, speaking of the cut, how like what kind of advice would you give to people here that are trying to bet, you know, on Saturday after the cut? Like what, what are you looking for on this weekend?
- [30:23]
Spencer Aguiar
For me, my favorite markets and I think we're the most winnable and the, the biggest edges still lie would probably be for in tournament matchups. I, I think in internment matchups, if you look at what happens, that's the one spot where inside of the golf market books are still slow to move in. A lot of these spots where there's over corrections and overreactions that take place. You know, there's people and this is kind of like the number one blueprint that I try to tell people that are building models or do things. It matters what's going on. But we build a model from a lot. It almost Would be like in football, Simon, where if you build a model and you have it built out for this entire game and after 1/4 Patrick Mahomes, let's just say plays poorly and now all of a sudden you create a whole new model. Change everything that you know about this and re weigh it. That's a little bit of what happens in golf and it happens really hardcore on the data building side, which is the incorrect thing to do. So you know, trust your pre tournament research. Whether you are building your own model or you're, you're listening to advice from other people or whatever it is like trust some of your takes that you had early on, trust the numbers, do not overreact to, to one or two rounds. It's such a small sample size. But if you can do that and you can trust some of your priors, I think in tournament matchups are where the value still land.
- [31:51]
Chad
Quick word from Zbiotics and we will be right back. Matt, summer's almost here. You know what that means. Beautiful weather, long days, cocktails on the patio. Also, we both know that after a few stiff drinks, we don't bounce back like we used to. Sometimes we've had to choose between a great night or a great next day. But that was before Matt. We tried pre alcohol zbiotics. Pre alcohol probiotic drink is the world's first genetically engineered probiotic invented by PhD scientists to tackle rough mornings after drinking. Here's how it works. When you drink, alcohol gets converted into a toxic byproduct in the gut. It's a buildup of this byproduct, not dehydration, that's to blame for rough days after drinking. Pre alcohol produces an enzyme to break down this byproduct. Just remember to make pre alcohol your first drink of the night. Drink responsibly and you'll feel your best tomorrow. Matt, as long as we've been talking about Zbiotics and pre alcohol, you've been a big fan, isn't that right?
- [33:05]
Boost Mobile Advertiser
That's right.
- [33:05]
Chad
I'm spending my own money on this product.
- [33:08]
Spencer Aguiar
It is lovely.
- [33:09]
Chad
Highly recommend it.
- [33:10]
Spencer Aguiar
Whether you live in the drink, in
- [33:12]
Chad
the state, in the union, like Wisconsin or anywhere else. Highly recommend it.
- [33:17]
Simon Hunter
It's these little bottles, you knock them
- [33:19]
Chad
back, you feel your best the next day.
- [33:21]
Spencer Aguiar
Couldn't recommend it more.
- [33:22]
Chad
All right, well listen, go to zbiotics.com sharpersquare to learn more and get 15% off your first order. When you use Sharper Square at checkout, Zebiotics is backed with 100% money back guarantee. So if you're unsatisfied for any reason, they'll refund your money, no questions asked. Remember to head to zbiotics.com sharp or square and use the code sharp or square at checkout for 15% off. Spencer we got a lot of very casual golf fans and golf betters listening. That crowd, they love a long shot. Everybody wants to get rich quick. Everybody wants to play the lottery. Spencer, what are your picks? What are your liens for anyone hunting for a big, big price, they just want to make bank for very little investment at the US Open.
- [34:21]
Spencer Aguiar
So I did a show with Matt Mitchell in 2023 where I came on with Wyndham Clark in this triple digit zone for the US Open. And Wyndham Clark very famously won at LACC for that. I don't know if I have as strong of a lean this go around with it. If there are some names I am looking for in that triple digit zone. If you want to throw a dart at the board and kind of hope for the best. I think Kurt Kitayama's ball striking, you can get him over a hundred to one. He makes some sense. Maverick McNeely is another name that I've kind of been chasing this year. It feels like I, I had a lot of exposure to him at the Masters. I had a lot of exposure to him at the PGA Championship. Not necessarily in the outright market, but in a lot of these safer markets, like whether it's a matchup or a placement bet. But I think those two names, maybe more so than most of them, would be the two that resonate inside of my model. Where there is a profile of where you can start telling a story. They don't necessarily check all the boxes of what you would want to see. But you know, my model has them closer into like the 70 to 80 to 1 range being proper for them. And you can get them in that triple digit zone. So those would be the two that I would bring to the show.
- [35:36]
Chad
Spencer, I tried as hard as I could to figure out a way to tempt you into singing something. I might have almost been distracted during the show just trying to figure that out. I couldn't get there.
- [35:49]
Spencer Aguiar
I'll tell you this. I mean, I can't promise I'm going to do it if, if I hit an outright winner. If it's Scotty Scheffler, like it may go from a billion to one to like a hundred to one the next time I'm on the show. So each winner will keep like increasing.
- [36:04]
Chad
If one of your long Shots, caches. We're just gonna have Matt Mitchell call you, record you singing a little diddy, and we'll put it on the show. Perfect. That's your promise to us, Spencer Aguiar. Thank you so much. Tell everyone how to sign up for your discord.
- [36:20]
Colin Coward
Yeah.
- [36:20]
Spencer Aguiar
So first of all, you can follow me on X at TF sports and you can go over to my website at teoffsports club. You know, there's a lot that I do on there, but there is also that free portion of the Discord to where if you sign up for a players club membership on there, you can get inside of the discord and get a behind the scene look at a lot of the goodies that I offer, whether it be my model that I've talked about on this show. It has the ability for people to make a copy of the model and to weigh the data themselves. That's my number one thing that I'm proud of, Chad, that I'm able to give back to the space is giving people the ability to build their own model, build their own numbers and to look deeper into these tournaments because I think at the end of the day, like, we can come on here and we can, you know, quote unquote tout plays, but I think where the true value comes in is being able to originate your own prices, figure out where the value lies. And that's something that I'm very proud of, that you can do inside of that model. And yeah, I write a lot of articles, Chad. Like, you know, some of them have gotten me nominated and won awards. But I mean, look, I write so many articles, at the end of day, you can probably get 15 plus on the website. So some are free, some are premium. But sign up for the website, you can see a bunch of that beautiful Spencer Agar.
- [37:34]
Chad
That's our show. It's been Sharper Square, part of the volume podcast network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Don't forget, follow us on Instagram at sharp or square all one word. Like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe. Leave us. Five stars. Say whatever you want.
- [37:55]
Spencer Aguiar
Feedback is a gift.
- [37:56]
Chad
Until next time.
- [37:57]
Spencer Aguiar
Love you. He's going to try to put this thing up.
- [38:01]
Colin Coward
Did you say putt?
- [38:02]
Spencer Aguiar
John Putt.
- [38:03]
Chad
Oh, my.
- [38:04]
Spencer Aguiar
Oh, my goodness.
- [38:05]
Colin Coward
Stop. Have you ever seen anything close to that?
- [38:10]
Chad
Not from a professional.
- [38:15]
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- [38:46]
Chad
When Kohler, global design leader and luxurious
- [38:49]
Spencer Aguiar
kitchen and bath products, asked me to
- [38:51]
Chad
be their ambassador for timeless, elegant, durable cast iron, I said, I'm in. Soon after, I was in their Kohler,
- [38:59]
Spencer Aguiar
Wisconsin foundry watching molten iron, poured enamel
- [39:03]
Chad
applied by hand and the beautiful finished pieces ready to ship. Since 1883, Kohler cast iron has been crafted by incredible artisans, and seeing it firsthand gave me a whole new appreciation for their craftsmanship. Now I am proud to lend my stamp of approval to my favorite Kohler Cast Iron products for their durability, beauty and enduring style. Shop my curated pics@kohler.com as the Kohler Cast Iron Ambassador, I say long live Cast Iron.
- [39:37]
Colin Coward
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Spencer Aguiar
us and waited for us to get home from school. They were the dogs that raised us.
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Colin Coward
We returned the love with Pedigree Dog Food.
- [40:32]
Spencer Aguiar
It was good then.
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Colin Coward
It's better now.
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Spencer Aguiar
For 40 years, pedigree has been bringing out the goodness in dogs. Every bowl serves up 100% of the nutrition your dog needs, supporting six health essentials. That's the pedigree goodness Promise Pedigree Good then, better now. This is an I Heart Podcast. Guaranteed human.