Podcast Summary: Sharp Tech with Ben Thompson

Episode: (Preview) Google’s Willow Chip, Drones as a Platform and Anduril Follow-Up, Building Inside and Outside Silicon Valley

Date: December 16, 2024
Hosts: Andrew Sharp (A), Ben Thompson (B)

Episode Overview

In this episode, Andrew and Ben dive into the buzz surrounding Google’s newly announced Willow quantum chip, break down the fundamentals of quantum computing, discuss broader implications for encryption and innovation, and reflect on Google’s role as a modern Bell Labs. They also touch on the evolving relevance of drones, with some light speculation on their future as a platform. The conversation balances technical clarity, industry context, and philosophical questions about innovation models in big tech.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Google’s Willow Quantum Chip: Hype vs. Reality

[00:50–12:45]

• Background on Willow Chip:
  Andrew introduces the topic by reading from Google’s recent blog post, highlighting two key achievements:

  • Willow massively improves error correction as more qubits are added, addressing a “key challenge in quantum error correction that the field has pursued for almost 30 years.”
  • Willow performed a benchmark computation that would take a classical supercomputer “10 septillion years.” (01:20)

• Multiverse Reference:
  Google’s claim that the chip’s speed “lends credence to the notion that quantum computation occurs in many parallel universes” prompts skepticism from both hosts.

  • Ben: “That feels like an unnecessary addition.” (02:35)

• Quantum Computing Explainer:
  Ben lays out the fundamentals:

  • Classical computing operates on bits (either 1 or 0); quantum computing uses qubits, which can be “all of the above at the same time.” (04:43)
  • The difficult part is reliability: “Qubits can be at all states between 0 and 1. The problem is like, you go to measure it and then it flattens down into either a 0 or 1.” (05:20)
  • Key innovation: Scaling up physical qubits and error correction so a “logical qubit” remains stable enough for calculations.

    “They’ve figured out this error correction mechanic where ones fall out of state, the other ones that are part of the logical qubit correct the ones that fall out, and they're all correcting each other such that the logical qubit stays in its state long enough that you can use it.” (06:29)

• Real-World Implications (or Lack Thereof):

  • Near-term uses are limited. Primary application discussed is breaking certain forms of encryption (e.g., cracking RSA), but:

    “We're years and years away from this being possible because we're talking like super small [numbers of qubits].” (08:35)

  • There are applications for search in unstructured data, but these are far from implementation.
  • “This is real progress. It has basically no implication on the world today as it is, or in the media to medium future.” (08:59)

• Quote, with perspective on timelines and impact:

  “It's a breakthrough. It's cool. It's not really pertinent, I think, to anyone and not really pertinent to the sort of stuff we talk about on Sharp Tech or on Stratechery.” (09:14)

2. Quantum Computing and Cryptography

[10:13–12:57]

• Encryption Concerns:

  • Not all cryptographic algorithms are threatened equally by quantum advances:

    “It's sometimes framed as all encryption is dead and that’s not the case.” (10:50)

  • Transition to quantum-resistant systems is underway (“my wife is working on, updating systems to be quantum resistant” – Andrew, 10:53).

• Skepticism of Speed Claims:

  • Ben challenges “septillion-year” benchmarks, noting they're often theoretical and unverified, with previous “breakthroughs” having been matched by classical computers via new algorithms.

    “They’re comparing it to a theoretical output… the actual test has no bearing on anything in real life or whatever.” (12:07)

3. Is Google the New Bell Labs?

[12:57–19:19]

• Listener Question & Tweet:

  • Trung Fan’s tweet: “Google is really the new Bell Labs just using that monopoly search money printer to throw off new inventions… Waymo, AlphaFold, the Transformer Gen AI paper, Willow quantum computing chips…” (12:57)
  • Andrew and Ben agree Google is closest to a modern-day Bell Labs, funding ambitious projects thanks to search profits.

• R&D, Monopoly, and Public Benefit:

  • Ben’s reflection:

    “Part of the settlements the government had with ATT over the years is they couldn't go into those industries… Bell Labs was basically the R&D department of the US.” (14:49)

  • He questions if Google’s innovations should be shared more broadly and debates the implications of monopoly-funded innovation.
  • Andrew adds:

    “If everything they were working on was just released to the public domain tomorrow, I would guess… Google’s tech would have the most benefits to society at large and technological progress.” (16:25)

  • Both note the government’s reduced R&D capacity today, and the importance of private sector moonshots.

• Critical Note on Trade-offs:

  • “There is a real cost to competition and innovation with Google's success. But they also are funding crazy moonshots…” (17:58)

• Contrast With Apple:

  • Apple’s R&D is laser-focused on products rather than pure research:

    “Apple's pretty relentlessly focused on inventing for products… once it was determined it's not going to be a product then we're not going to just keep doing research.” (18:20)

  • Ben notes this is different than Google’s more abstract, research-heavy efforts.

4. Drones as Platforms & The iPad Analogy

[19:26–21:23]

• Listener Question:

  • Are drones “the iPads of the sky”? Why haven’t they become a broader consumer platform? (20:09)

• Ben’s Response:

  • Disagrees with the analogy; for the military, drones are already a present reality, not just the future.

    “Drones are pretty clearly the future of military. They're not the future, they're the present.” (21:23)

  • Civilian/commercial applications are less mature but not to be underestimated.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On theoretical quantum speedups:

  “To do this with classical computing would take seven septillion years or whatever it is… What if you could try a bunch of ones sort of simultaneously, all at the same time in the different metaverses or whatever it might be.” — Ben (07:41)

• On multiverse buzz:

  “That feels like an unnecessary addition. I mean, let's just say up top, we may be better place to be talking about Q-Bert, this sort of arcade game from the 80s.” — Ben (02:35)

• On the reality gap:

  “I think there is a real breakthrough here and it's really cool. I also, my at least view right now is this has no real impact on, on sort of day to day life. So it's, it's a fun story but nothing to get too worried about.” — Ben (12:45)

• On Google as Bell Labs:

  “I tend to agree that a lot of the modern antitrust crusaders spend a lot of time on challenges that they're not going to solve and that unfortunately have the outcome of not really helping anyone, including potentially killing stuff like this.” — Ben (15:35)

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Topic | Timestamp | |-----------------------------------------------|-----------------| | Google’s Willow chip intro & announcement | 00:50–02:35 | | What is quantum computing? | 03:00–05:37 | | Error correction breakthrough explained | 05:37–08:00 | | Real-world implications & cryptography | 08:00–12:57 | | Is Google the new Bell Labs? | 12:57–19:19 | | Drones as platforms / iPad analogy | 19:26–21:36 |

Tone and Style

The hosts maintain a conversational, self-deprecating, occasionally irreverent tone (see Q-Bert and “not the right mental state to explore multiverse possibilities at 9:47am”). They consistently clarify technical points without overselling the significance of hype-driven announcements. Philosophical musings and tech industry “what ifs” are discussed with good humor and depth.

Conclusion

This episode offers a measured breakdown of Google’s Willow quantum chip, the state of quantum computing, and big questions about how innovation really happens in today’s tech world. With thoughtful skepticism, the hosts parse hype from reality and ground futuristic speculation with concrete industry context.