Shift Key – “Heatmap’s Annual Climate Insiders Survey Is Here”

Podcast: Shift Key with Robinson Meyer & Jesse Jenkins
Host: Heatmap News
Date: January 14, 2026

Episode Overview

This special episode spotlights Heatmap News’ 2026 Insiders Survey, where influential climate experts, policymakers, and industry shapers anonymously weigh in on the most pressing questions driving the energy transition and decarbonization. But this week, co-host Jesse Jenkins, Princeton energy systems professor, is put directly in the “hot seat” and answers the survey’s toughest questions on the record—covering everything from the future of climate tech and decarbonization policy, to controversial climate jargon, political blame for energy prices, and predictions for global warming. The discussion is incisive, candid, and at times humorous, offering an insider’s perspective on the pulse of the climate sector at the start of 2026.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Decarbonization Technology furthest from 'Primetime'

[03:52]

• Jenkins points to industrial decarbonization technologies as most nascent.
• Technologies for truly greening steel, cement, and particularly petrochemicals remain early stage, complicated by the need for “chemical reductants” and novel feedstocks.
• Many industry forecasts have “assumed a can opener”—that breakthrough solutions will just arrive—but reality is more complex and solutions are “quite a long way from commercial readiness.”

“The companies that are working on this stuff are all quite nascent...with exciting green shoots coming from startups and research, but really quite a long way from commercial readiness and I think also a long way from the policy environment you need to launch those companies.” – Jesse Jenkins [05:18]

2. Most Exciting Climate Tech Companies

[05:56]

• Jenkins lauds startups focused on clean industrial heat, including:
  • Dig Energy, Dulcie Madden (CEO featured previously),
  • Ever (geothermal),
  • Carmen Industries (advanced heat pumps),
  • Rondo Energy (heat batteries).
• Emphasizes that providing clean industrial heat at scale is both promising and rapidly progressing.

“I expect a lot of movement in 2026 in terms of commercial deployment, demonstrations…” – Jesse Jenkins [07:06]

3. Jargon Jenkins Would Ban: The “Hydrogen Rainbow”

[07:30]

• Jenkins expresses strong dislike for the proliferation of color-coded hydrogen terms (“green,” “blue,” “pink,” “emerald”), arguing it is contentless and confusing for non-insiders.

“All of [the hydrogen rainbow terms] don’t tell you anything at all unless you’re already an insider... It just serves to obfuscate and...turn off folks who are not insiders.” – Jesse Jenkins [07:51]

• Robinson Meyer shares his favorite answer from Todd Stern, who dislikes omitting the “the” in “the COP.” (Memorable lighter moment)

“No one has the right to be suddenly become such intimate pals with COP...I never give in.” – Todd Stern (via R. Meyer) [09:29]

4. Data Centers, AI, and Decarbonization Pace

[10:06] - [12:46]

• Jenkins says AI/data centers are significantly slowing decarbonization, because the surge in power demand threatens to overwhelm clean supply growth.
• Decarbonization’s “core challenge” is adding clean supply faster than demand—an uphill battle with rapid data center expansion.
• Jenkins believes US coal generation will remain higher than it would have without this demand spike, especially after the repeal of key Biden-era EPA regulations.

“We are not going to be able to both meet the large demand growth and eat into...remaining emissions...” – Jesse Jenkins [11:26]

Policy Shifts Due to Data Center Demand

• Jenkins now views strict EPA power sector regulations as more important than ever, since tax credits/tailwinds for clean energy have eroded.
• Coal plants get a “second lease on life” due to energy demand and lack of policy constraints.

“It looks like [the EPA regs] was a much more important driver of emissions reductions than we might have anticipated.” – Jesse Jenkins [14:24]

5. Permitting Reform — Political Impasse

[14:46]

• Jenkins is not optimistic major “permitting reform” legislation will pass before 2027, citing opposition from both right (“too friendly to renewables”) and left (“doesn’t go far enough”).
• Current bills like the SPEED Act offer only “bare minimum” reforms and face significant headwinds.

“…I have a hard time seeing it moving forward even in that form. And that’s really quite a bit stripped down compared to the Manchin Barrasso bill...” – Jesse Jenkins [15:33]

6. Who’ll Get Blamed for Rising Electricity Prices?

[16:39] - [18:53]

• Jenkins: Both major US parties will be blamed by their own “echo chambers.”
• Pressed for attribution, Jenkins points to Republicans for repealing subsidies, blocking clean energy permitting, and encouraging LNG exports—thus directly causing higher prices.

“...repealing tax credits that made new electricity sources 30 to 50% cheaper...standing in the way of permitting cost-effective new resources...” – Jesse Jenkins [18:12]

7. Worst for Decarbonization (Besides Trump)

[19:03]

• Jenkins criticizes the Trump Administration’s crackdown on new wind/solar project permitting, especially targeting Department of Interior Secretary Burgum for about-turn on clean energy.

“The efforts to block permitting of cost-effective resources...is probably the most surprising...and the most damaging beyond all the policy reforms that we were expecting.” – Jesse Jenkins [19:16]

8. Lessons from Clean Energy Tax Credit Cuts

[19:51]

• Jenkins voices concern that “ironclad political control” in the current GOP means lawmakers go against constituents’ and even district’s interests when commanded by party leadership.

“...rational self-interest and what’s good for your constituents...are outweighed by what the party leader tells you to do.” – Jesse Jenkins [20:07]

9. Paris Agreement’s Legacy

[21:02]

• The Paris Agreement’s most significant impact is setting 1.5-2°C as a global climate target—now central across the climate movement.
• Jenkins critiques “bright line” targets, arguing every tenth of a degree matters and deployments should be accelerated over symbolic pledges.

“I wish that the legacy was...focused much more concretely on how do we accelerate deployment of clean energy to be faster than demand growth...” – Jesse Jenkins [21:56]

10. The Sector in Most Trouble (Aside from Offshore Wind)

[22:59]

• Jenkins picks the US EV sector as most at risk due to loss of subsidies, hostile policy reversal, and insufficient consumer readiness.
• Carmakers are retreating to safe ground (SUVs, ICE), after gambling big on EVs—future leadership in EVs at risk.

“I’m very pessimistic about where the US EV sector and automakers in general sit right now and where they’ll sit in five or ten years relative to the rest of the world’s auto markets.” – Jesse Jenkins [25:13]

Rapid Fire Round (Selected Highlights)

• Best Hyperscaler on Climate: Jenkins declines to answer due to professional conflict [27:13]
• China: Hero or Villain? — “Hero at the moment,” credits China’s strategic pivot toward non-fossil resources, but notes coal use is a concern [27:25]
• Will a country deploy solar radiation management globally in next decade? — “No.” [28:38]
• How much global warming by 2100? — Jenkins pegs it at “about 2.7°C above pre-industrial” ([29:04])
• When will global emissions peak? — “2028, before 2030” ([29:39])
• When will the US reach net zero? — “Still in play” for 2060s, but “not going to be 2050 anymore” ([30:36])

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• The perils of climate jargon:
  “It just serves to obfuscate and I think turn off folks who are not insiders from understanding what we’re talking about.” – Jesse Jenkins [08:01]
• On policy under data center demand:
  “Coal plants are getting a second lease on life...” – Jesse Jenkins [11:53]
• Party leadership vs. constituent needs:
  “They took a vote that they knew was bad for their constituents and was bad for the future of US competitiveness...” – Jesse Jenkins [20:41]
• On Paris’s bright lines:
  “Every tenth of a degree matters.” – Jesse Jenkins [21:46]

Notable References

• Jenkins refers listeners to the recently published Zero Lab / Encore report on flexible interconnection (“bring your own capacity”) for data center load growth ([31:17])
• Robinson Meyer’s best PDF of the year: “Philosophical introduction to Merleau-Ponty’s phenomenology of perception” – which sparks a surprise detour into Jenkins’ background in philosophy ([32:13])

Takeaway

Jenkins provides a candid, sometimes sobering, expert’s assessment of the state of climate technology and US policy at a pivotal moment. The episode brings out challenges in industrial decarbonization, the threat posed by runaway data center demand, erosion of bipartisan will on permitting and policy, and the costs of polarized political leadership. Jenkins stays grounded in the technical and political realities—eschewing hype, highlighting complexity, and stressing that “every tenth of a degree matters.”

Timestamps Index

• [03:52] Most underdeveloped technology: Industrial decarbonization
• [05:56] Most exciting companies: Clean industrial heat startups
• [07:30] Jargon to ban: Hydrogen rainbow
• [10:06] Is AI/data center demand slowing decarb? — Yes
• [12:57] Policy: EPA regs more important post data center demand
• [14:46] Permitting reform unlikely in current Congress
• [16:39] Political blame for energy prices
• [19:03] Worst for decarb post-Trump: Interior Dept. crackdown
• [19:51] Lessons from clean energy tax credit scaleback
• [21:02] Paris Agreement’s enduring legacy and flaws
• [22:59] US EV sector most at risk post-IRA/tax credit repeal
• [27:25] China: “Hero at the moment” for climate
• [29:04] Predicted warming in 2100: ~2.7°C
• [29:39] Emissions peak by: 2028
• [31:17] Must-read PDF: Zero Lab report on flexible interconnection

For more in-depth responses from Jesse Jenkins and the perspectives of over 50 other climate insiders, see the full Heatmap Insiders Survey on Heatmap News.