Shift Key with Robinson Meyer — "How Utilities Actually Think"

Date: April 7, 2026
Host: Robinson Meyer (Heatmap News)
Guest: Alice Yake, Vice President of Grid Modeling at Breakthrough Energy, former SVP at Xcel Energy

Episode Overview

This episode of Shift Key dives into the inner workings of utility decision-making and planning, focusing on how utilities have historically responded to constraints, the roles of incentives/disincentives, and what it all means as the US grid evolves—especially under pressure to decarbonize. Guest Alice Yake draws on her expansive career from Enron to Occidental Petroleum to Xcel Energy and Breakthrough Energy, offering a rare, multifaceted perspective. The conversation explores why utilities make the choices they do, how the grid’s history shapes today’s options, the centrality of planning, and the critical need for alignment among policymakers, utilities, and public stakeholders to achieve an affordable, reliable, and decarbonized power system.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Alice Yake’s Unusual Career Path

[02:44-08:09]

• Origin as a ballerina, then pivot to Management Information Systems and a stint at Enron before moving up the ranks through Occidental (Oxy), a major industrial customer, and then into utility leadership at Xcel.
• Her trajectory gave her experience as both a massive electricity buyer and a utility executive shaping grid development, regulation, and strategic planning.
  • “I programmed those shadow settlement systems, which led to reading the protocols of ERCOT, learning about the energy systems…” (Alice Yake, [04:46])
  • “There’s not a better department to be in than a regulatory department to truly understand how the utility operates.” (Alice Yake, [07:05])

2. Industrial Load as an Early Glimpse of Today’s Grid Challenges

[08:09-08:55]

• Data centers and other large users now echo the high, steady load profiles of traditional industrial customers.
  • “They turn on and they stay on until there’s a maintenance piece. And that’s a very different animal.” (Alice Yake, [08:32])

3. Historic Periods Shape Grid Logic

[09:52-15:08]

• The system’s design reflects successive eras:
  • 1920s-30s: “Power to the people” — Buildout of basic infrastructure, rural electrification.
  • 1970s-80s: Energy crisis and overbuild — Large investments in nuclear and coal amid fears of fuel shortages.
  • 1990s-2000s: Emphasis on efficiency, then deregulation and market competition, following overbuilt generation/transmission.
• Leadership backgrounds evolved: engineers ➔ lawyers ➔ financial experts.
  • “We are now back to very much an engineering question. But we have a system...with a lot of politics [and] financial incentives or disincentives.” (Alice Yake, [12:51])

4. Utility Decision-Making: Constraints, Incentives, and Disincentives

[15:08-16:49]

• Utilities answer to regulators (politically appointed), investors, stakeholders—including industrial customers and environmentalists.
• Decision processes split between “best interest of customers" and financial viability, muddied by political and factual tensions.
  • “When you split the baby on physics, you’re only increasing the risks to the system being reliable.” (Alice Yake, [16:44])

5. Why the US Grid Is Old, Expensive to Replace, and Facing New Demands

[19:00-24:18]

• Large assets (plants, transmission) were built in response to what turned out to be misplaced fears (e.g., running out of natural gas).
  • “We overbuilt the generation, therefore we overbuilt the transmission for the future that we’re needing. Because we had a hypothesis that something wasn’t going to be available.” (Alice Yake, [20:37])
• Infrastructure now often 50-60 years old; replacement is necessary but expensive.
• Utilities and customers became used to stability and cheap power, but that’s vanishing amid rising prices, decarbonization needs, and new load.

6. The Complexity of Modern Grid Decisions

(Generation, Distribution, Transmission) [27:38-47:21]

Generation

• Main goal: Ensure enough capacity + reserve margins, considering shared risk within market pools.

Distribution

• Traditionally focused on iterative maintenance or incremental expansion, but:
  • Electrification (EVs, heat pumps, rooftop solar/batteries) will dramatically change neighborhood load shapes.
  • “If you continue maintain and replace, that system is inadequate... If you put them in next year and they are inadequate in 10 years, you then have to rebuild a system and charge it to the customers again.” (Alice Yake, [34:57])

Transmission

• Often mischaracterized as being driven solely by utility self-interest.
• Real barrier: Regulatory recovery risks and misalignment between states, utilities, and regulators, making joint transmission builds fraught and politically vulnerable.
  • “It may have nothing to do with their own capital investment...it’s the risk of recovery because they’re not making a dime…if the regulator disallows it...” (Alice Yake, [48:00])

7. Grid Planning & The Need for Alignment and Transparency

[36:05-53:33]

• Alice’s work at Breakthrough Energy: Creating open-source, standardized grid planning tools (software) to enable more transparent, faster, and inclusive planning.
  • “Fundamentally, you have to have a plan… Physics does not bend to politics…We need to have conversations where you’re not splitting the baby on an emotional decision because of politics.” (Alice Yake, [36:13 & 38:58])
• Open-source models can democratize grid planning, helping not just US states but developing countries plan and build more rational, robust systems.

8. Decarbonization and Demand Flexibility

[42:25-46:49]

• Moving to zero-carbon grids or incorporating loads like distributed solar/batteries necessitates planning for far greater demand flexibility.
• If utilities and their customers align to flex demand, the grid can be sized much smaller and cheaper—but requires new social contracts and market models.
  • “If we assume 20% flexibility on the system, for example, you need 20% of customers to participate, but they have to be dispersed…” (Alice Yake, [45:36])

9. How Listeners/Public Can Influence Utilities

[53:22-55:17]

• Most effective: Get educated, empathize, and engage in regulatory processes and utility outreach.
• Industrial/commercial users should proactively participate, not just respond to surveys, or their interests risk being ignored.

10. Fundamental Design Questions Still Unanswered

[55:17-57:24]

• US low-voltage home power (110 vs. Europe’s 220-240V) is not the root design flaw, but the time for major redesign or rethinking is upon us.
• Distribution-level “pods” and microgrids may become more prominent for resilience and customization.

Notable Quotes & Moments

On Utility Decision-Making and Its Misunderstandings

• “Utilities answer to regulators, who are appointed by governors who have political views…The regulator has to split the baby to satisfy so many different pressures.”
  — Alice Yake, [15:10]

On the Risk of Inadequate Upgrades and Incrementalism

• “If you put [distribution assets] in next year and they are inadequate in 10 years, you then have to rebuild a system and charge it to the customers again. This is why I’m doing what I’m doing inside of Breakthrough…”
  — Alice Yake, [34:57]

On the Difficulty of Aligning Across Stakeholders

• “Physics does not bend to politics. They are the laws of physics. They are not the laws of people, and so we have to live within them.”
  — Alice Yake, [38:58]

On the Role of Transparent, Open-Source Grid Planning

• “Right now there’s a lot of distrust…If you can’t replicate somebody else’s complex environment…then you get to all kinds of assumptions…You have to have transparency to then have a common conversation on the logic.”
  — Alice Yake, [37:11]

On The Value and Limits of Decarbonization Models

• “If you change [the planning] premise and assume 20% of the energy on the system is flexible... you plan a very different system…But…customers have to be in it with you…”
  — Alice Yake, [42:59]

On Public Engagement

• “The best way of participating is always going to be making comments at the regulatory commission…participate in the programs the utility has, give feedback, send in messages…”
  — Alice Yake, [53:33]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Alice Yake’s career & shaping perspectives [02:15–08:09]
• How industrial load presaged current grid demands [08:09–08:55]
• The history of grid buildout and regulation [09:52–15:08]
• Incentives/disincentives in utility regulation [15:08–16:49]
• Shift to electricity markets, and overbuilding [16:49–24:18]
• What shapes generation, distribution, and transmission decisions [27:38–47:21]
• Challenges of distribution system modernization [31:15–36:05]
• Planning, transparency, and Breakthrough’s open-source grid tools [36:05–39:41]
• Decarbonization, demand flexibility, and modeling assumptions [42:25–46:49]
• Transmission incentives/disincentives and interstate issues [46:49–49:55]
• Importance of alignment for rapid grid transformation [49:55–50:59]
• Guidance for public and industrial participation [53:22–55:17]
• Fundamental system design—voltage debate & distribution redesign [55:17–57:24]

Overall Tone & Takeaway

Alice Yake is frank and clear-eyed, blending technical rigor with practical wisdom and empathy for all sides—customers, regulators, utilities, and advocates. She stresses that while political fights swirl, the laws of physics ultimately win: reliability and resource adequacy are non-negotiable, and infrastructure investments are high-stakes, long-term bets. Breakthrough Energy’s work on transparent, accessible planning tools is posited as a crucial means to build alignment, speed up investment, and democratize access to rational grid planning in the US and globally.

Summary in her own words:

“This is the fundamental space where you impact society. There’s not a single person that doesn’t depend on electricity in a developed economy. It is a life essential. So doing this well…is foundational and fundamental to our success.”
— Alice Yake, [40:23]

Additional: Segment on Home Electrification (Sponsor) [58:33+]

(A sponsored follow-on interviews with Sam Weavers, Lunar Energy, not summarized per instructions.)

For listeners, this episode demystifies why utilities act as they do, why changing the grid is so difficult—and how clarity, alignment, and better tools are urgently needed for the power system transformation ahead.