Podcast Summary: Shift Key with Robinson Meyer

Episode: What J.P. Morgan’s Chief Climate Advisor Is Telling Energy Startups
Date: September 17, 2025
Host: Robinson Meyer (Jesse Jenkins is off this week)
Guest: Dr. Sarah Kapnick, Global Head of Climate Advisory, J.P. Morgan

Overview

This episode dives into the “new era” of energy insecurity and geopolitics amid rapid technological change, AI-driven energy demand, and climate adaptation. Robinson Meyer interviews Dr. Sarah Kapnick, a leading climate scientist and J.P. Morgan’s global climate advisory head, about her recent paper ("The New Map of Energy and Geopolitics") and what she's advising energy startups and large clients in today’s volatile, opportunity-rich landscape. They discuss shifts in energy policy, how advanced technologies are reshaping the geopolitical landscape, the US and China’s industrial competition, and how adaptation and resilience are gaining ground on mitigation in climate strategy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The New Age of Energy Security (04:15)

• Kapnick’s framing: Energy has always driven geopolitics, but the rise of AI—requiring vast new energy resources—is accelerating a focus on both energy growth and national security.
  • "Because of the advanced demand for AI...needing to make sure that supply meets demand is leading to that being a fundamental national security issue." (04:20)
• The world is shifting not just toward clean power but also to supply chain sovereignty, driven by both post-COVID anxieties and the demands of rapid technological progress.
  • “AI is accelerating this transition...it's making it much clearer and it's heading this forcing mechanism that is pushing this to happen faster and for decisions to be made faster.” (05:49)

2. Energy, Food, and Supply Chain Vulnerability (07:00–10:26)

• Meyer and Kapnick draw historical parallels: after WWI, countries focused on food security; COVID similarly exposed vulnerabilities in modern supply chains.
  • “Covid gave this moment of realizing where the cracks in the system could be...if you want to ensure you have self-sufficiency… you then figure that out.” (08:22)
• Kapnick links energy security and food security, forecasting a coming wave of innovation and investment in food nutrition, supply, and land restoration.

3. Climate Science at a Bank—What Does Dr. Kapnick Do? (11:02)

• Advises all types of clients (from startups to boards of Fortune 500s) and J.P. Morgan leadership on climate, resilience, and emerging risks—including national security.
  • “I have conversations with our clients...I pool all of these types of questions that I'm getting and I see trends.” (11:17)
• Trend topics include the future of maritime ports, sea level rise, and resilient infrastructure, reflecting both mitigation and adaptation.

4. Adaptation vs. Mitigation—A Maturing Conversation (14:32–16:53)

• Clients (and cities/states) are increasingly blending adaptation (resilience) and mitigation (decarbonization) strategies.
  • “There's now more nuanced conversation also about I have X number of dollars...are there ways that I can effectively think through how I do adaptation and mitigation?” (15:13)
• Utility Example: Solar-plus-storage helps with both heatwave-driven demand spikes (adaptation) and emissions reductions (mitigation). (16:59)

5. Geopolitics, North American Competitive Advantage, and Global Trends (21:52–29:00)

• North America has abundant energy resources—coal, oil, gas, water, wind, sun, and leadership in nuclear and geothermal tech.
• Kapnick suggests the US can build out nearly any energy future but faces strategic choices on what to prioritize.
• Other nations (especially in Asia) are moving to renewables, nuclear, and storage for energy independence, reducing reliance on fossil fuel imports or volatile political partnerships.

Quote:
“We have the potential to be able to build out what we want in North America...and at this moment in time, we have choices to make if we want to build it all out strategically or not.” (22:22)

6. Fossil Fuels in the New Era (26:36–29:00)

• Fossil fuels are not vanishing but are joined by competing energy technologies with different geopolitical impacts.
• Kapnick points to countries focusing on self-sufficiency through renewables and nuclear to escape “beholden” fossil fuel politics.
  • “You can then also export that technology...some countries are betting that nuclear or solar or wind will be an export technology.” (28:34)

7. Global Grid Interconnections—Unexpected Alliances (31:23–34:16)

• Growing number of cross-border power grid connections, even among politically fraught neighbors—East/West/Central/Southern Africa, and Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Myanmar, Singapore, etc.).
  • “Now they are putting electrons onto the grid...now starting to link them because they recognize the importance of having electricity.” (31:31)
• Electrification and energy trade are global trends—extending beyond AI and China-centric narratives.

8. US Policy, China’s Dominance, and America’s Path Forward (34:39–37:19)

• China leads in EVs, solar, and batteries, but the US has competitive advantages in geothermal and advanced nuclear.
• Bipartisan support currently exists for US geothermal and nuclear; opportunities depend on policy consistency.
  • “If we have some consistency of choice of what we want to innovate on...we've done it in the past…there's a moment right now." (35:19)

9. Advising Energy Startups: What Matters in Today's Market? (37:19–39:38)

• Clients want to focus on areas with long-term policy support and minimal volatility.
• Resilience and adaptation are becoming more attractive (not just mitigation).
• Companies are becoming less reliant on future government policy, focusing on fundamentals, cost, and scalability.

10. The State and Evolution of Climate Tech (39:38–42:52)

• Climate tech isn't contracting—interest has shifted toward action, resilience, and real-world implementation.
• Kapnick observes higher sophistication, more nuanced debate, and greater institutional expertise in climate discussions.
  • “Everyone is learning on this and becoming experts in it...so much more expertise out there and so much more focus on this and getting things done." (41:47)

11. Remaining Gaps & Biggest Surprises (43:06–44:48)

• The speed and funding of adaptation projects are major concerns—demand may outpace the capacity to deliver.
• Kapnick's greatest learning: The complexity of achieving real change is immense and requires mobilizing expertise across all sectors and regions.

Notable Quotes

• “AI is accelerating this transition that we had seen starting to develop and is accelerating it...” – Dr. Sarah Kapnick (05:49)
• “Covid gave this moment of realizing where the cracks in the system could be...” – Dr. Sarah Kapnick (08:22)
• “There's now more nuanced conversation...Are there ways that I can effectively think through how I do adaptation and mitigation and how should I effectively be spending my money?” – Dr. Sarah Kapnick (15:13)
• “If we have some consistency of choice of what we want to innovate on...there's a moment right now and there's bipartisan support for geothermal and nuclear at this point in time.” – Dr. Sarah Kapnick (35:19)
• “The advice that I give them is looking to some of those things that strategically are likely to have more consistency over time and that they're looking for those places of more consistency and that they feel that they can invest in, that they will have support ongoing.” – Dr. Sarah Kapnick (37:37)
• “I would say that [conversations] are becoming more sophisticated because people are realizing which solutions are actionable and which ones aren't.” – Dr. Sarah Kapnick (41:47)

Important Timestamps

• 04:20: Kapnick introduces the new age of energy security
• 05:49: AI’s role in accelerating energy/geopolitics shift
• 11:17: Describing the role of a climate scientist at JP Morgan
• 14:32: Discussing adaptation vs. mitigation, and their growing overlap
• 21:52: North America’s unique competitive energy strengths
• 31:31: Cross-border grid connections in Africa / Asia
• 35:19: US geothermal and nuclear: policy, commercialization, and global potential
• 39:38: Shift in climate tech sector focus and investor sentiment
• 43:06: Gaps and needs in resilience/adaptation implementation
• 44:48: Kapnick’s personal biggest learning in climate/energy work

Memorable Moments

• Robinson Meyer draws a parallel to post-WWI food policy and how COVID reawakened supply chain anxiety (06:40–08:08).
• Unpacking why the US might double down on clean energy innovation (despite China’s dominance elsewhere) and the value of policy consistency (34:39–37:19).
• An exploration of new global power grid linkages, with Africa and Asia creating regional trading blocs for electricity (31:23–34:16).
• Kapnick notes a renewed, nuanced focus on adaptation and resilience “because that's actually what's going to manage what's going to affect your lives.” (20:05)

Conclusion

Dr. Sarah Kapnick provides a wide-lens view on new energy security imperatives, why clients are now balancing adaptation with mitigation, the US’s strategic energy “portfolio,” and how companies can succeed in a time of uncertainty and transition. The episode emphasizes urgency in both innovation and implementation, a pragmatic appraisal of US-China competition, and a clear-eyed recognition that solutions must keep pace—both politically and physically—with escalating global climate, economic, and technological change.

For further information or perspective, read Dr. Kapnick's paper "The New Map of Energy and Geopolitics," recently released from JP Morgan’s Center for Geopolitics.