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Simon Dixon Hard Talk
AI Unwinds, Bitcoin Decides & the Middle East Realigns | Simon Dixon Hard Talk LIVE (Part One)
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Hey, hey, sovereign wealth builders. Simon Dixon here. And welcome to another episode of Simon Dixon Hard Talk Live. This week we're going to be covering the AI sell off, bitcoin wallet hacks and of course, the global realignment that's happening in the Middle east, whether it be Iraq, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Iran. The latest over there, how we follow the money and check in on what's happening and what we expect to happen next. As always, we're going to be doing this in two parts. Part one, I'll be going through the new things that happened this week. The AI unwind the bitcoin decisions leading up to the soft fork. And then we'll be diving into the Middle Eastern side and what it actually means. In part two, I'll give you a quote from the interview. Politicians are paid for rent, prostitutes. We had a really nice conversation with a media veteran where we were discussing from the perspective of somebody that's actually worked inside the machine in media, the true mechanics of power. And that was when I was invited onto a podcast with James Delingpole. So let's jump right in with this week in the macro and market side. So really the big event happened when Wednesday. We had the Fed chair announcement and people have been wondering, is it going to be lowering rates, is it going to be increasing rates? You know, inflation is high and there's different theories around what's going to happen. You know, there was the big hoo ha between Jerome Powell and Trump. Then we had the regime change at the Fed and people were thinking this is Trump getting his way and he's going to be reducing rates. But we had nothing happen. But people are starting to think that we're potentially moving towards a rake height or nothing happening. So anyway, the rate decrease isn't happening now, allegedly there was lots of stories and rumors and I haven't really sort through what's true because I've been writing my book. So I've just caught up on the stories. I haven't got the full thing here, but I wanted to make sure that we just take a step back and think how this all fits in. But there was allegations against Ken Griffin from Citadel, the big hedge fund manager, you know, the one that was involved in GameStop, massive Citadel financial industrial complex node on the hedge fund side, you know, up in the levels of Jane street in terms of market manipulation and, you know, various other things. But there was a massive AI sell off and the rumors was that Citadel was telling people that there may potentially be a different outcome with the Fed. And when it didn't happen. Much of the AI stocks had a really big and bad reaction to that. Now in the meantime, one of the hedge funds that was over leveraged like forex to a $25 billion AI infrastructure hedge fund was wiped out. They were completely over leveraged. And because of the severe correction, there was a margin call and guess who ended up buying all of those AI stocks? It was Citadel. And this was as a result of this hawkish tone that happened as a result of the Fed. Now in the re. In the reaction to that, remember what happens when you have people selling bonds. You have big increases in the yield on the, the bonds and the, and the Treasuries. There was a really big hike on the 10 year and the 30 year. So we're above, you know, the, the 5% mark which we've been tracking throughout the whole war and now we're up to 4 and a 6, 4.6 on the 10 year. Now remember, the 10 year treasuries is what sets the rate for most most debt mortgages, less credit cards. But auto loans and mortgages are the most important part of it. So when the yields on the 10 year bond go up, it has a knock on effect on mortgage rates. Which means that when it comes to refinancing, if mortgage rates are above 7%, you start to hit some of that stress. And so throughout the whole Iran war we were talking about every time the rates get above 4.5% on the 10 year and 5% on the 30 year, you got a taco event, a capitulation. But we had this big spike in yields now. So this is a near new all time high, really not all time, sorry, near time high. And so that had a really big impact on the AI stock sell off at the same time as these yields going up. And so we said, you know, some of those funds as we said, were hugely leveraged. When you're leveraged, it means you're borrowing. It means you can lose significantly more because you're taking your capital that you're investing and you're taking out a leverage position. You're getting increased exposure. And so when there is these sharp moves downwards, you get these liquidations. And so Citadel decided to use this opportunity to buy a lot of these AI assets. Now there's two ways of interpreting that. One is that they're building a long term AI position. The other way is that they're building a position so that they can then leverage and then they can do their market shenanigans as a trader. But immediately after the Purchase we had a massive AI market rebound and there was a bunch of for selling. As a result of those liquidations, the positions were realigned and Citadel became the net beneficiary from many of those AI purchases. So we will keep watching this and we will see what happens here. But unwinding AI positions, is it based upon the fundamentals or is this a short term trade? Because we know that China has significantly cheaper infrastructure and the expense of the US model. With all these token model, whether we're going to be getting something and there's some insider information we will see. But the smart money is buying into these forced liquidations. Whether that's for more leverage or whether that's for a long term position, we shall keep watching this space. Speaking of AI, if you were involved in the Celsius bankruptcy, congratulations. There was a new AI infrastructure stock that went live this week. It's called Ionic Digital. Full disclosure, you will know I am the, I was the seventh largest creditor in the Celsius bankruptcy and we fought to keep the bitcoin. So we got the upside from the bitcoin and package all the other assets into a company that has now gone public. And that public company, Ionic Digital went live on nasdaq. They pivoted from bitcoin mining to taking the the their locations and renting it out and selling it out to AI companies. They got a multi billion dollar contract. And guess who one of their early cornerstone investors was right before the public offering. It was Citadel. So it went from when in the bankruptcy the shares were issued at $20 and yesterday at close they were trading at about $70. Haven't looked at what's happened to the price today. So. But the point is the people that were selling, the distressed creditors that wanted out there seemed to be a big amount of institutional buying that was allowing people to exit into those positions. And Citadel was one of the larger investors here. So it becomes really important. Is there an accumulation of positions in order to leverage or is this longer term positions that are being set up now? You know my long term theory, I think that everybody needs to be an owner in order to protect themselves from what's happening in the AI trade? Because if you don't own parts of the infrastructure then you don't get, you know, you may be using the productivity increase, but the productivity increase is leading to mass unemployment is my theory. I don't think it's going to create jobs. It's only the Silicon Valley people that have to say that, that are saying that. I think it's going to lead to mass loss of jobs and eventually some kind of universal basic income highly likely to be issued via some kind of stablecoin or CBDC globally or whatever it may be because those that only assets this is massive wealth inequality. Those are the most productive are getting the highest paid jobs and they're being paid in order to take out the jobs of everybody else. So the more productive you are, the more aligned you are with AI, you're more likely you are to be one of those people that retains their jobs. And then the other half of that is you need to be an owner in the infrastructure. Also building your freedom with open source AI as well, which is mainly being built upon the China stack at the moment ironically. And so the China stack is allowing people to do this significantly cheaper and the US stack is trying to justify this capex expenditure and valuations. Now one of the ways to protect yourself there is to be the owner of the companies that are actually renting out the infrastructure that makes up the AI that is signing long term contracts with the Magnificent Seven like Microsoft and various others. And so we just happen to be, as a result of that bankruptcy, receiving some of those shares. You know, not financial advice but I just wanted to disclose that position and also that Citadel started building that. So I'm going to be watching this one very closely. But the ticker is I o n d those shares have been distributed and really those that were, you know, if you ended up in the end you ended up with about 25 of your Bitcoin as a result of the bankruptcy and 75% was missing. And then the they're doing lots of legal action. There was a settlement with Tether that liquidated a lot of the bitcoin based upon a bitcoin backed loan that then used the Tether in order to invest in this mining infrastructure. That's kind of the story but that's been distributed now and fortunately yeah, the shares have gone up to $70 right now I won't be selling because I'm going to be holding as part of owning a piece of the infrastructure behind the artificial intelligence, knowing that it's been rented to some of these larger counterparties Anyway, none of that. You should read all the different stuff. I just wanted to share what's happening there and I thought I'd cover it today because it launched on the market and also the, the Citadel position, which I thought was interesting timing but anyway it's a strong outcome for creditors who held. Congratulations. It's a nice ending to a very painful Story for those that sat through over the last four years and it is now AI infrastructure. Now interestingly is that intersection between Bitcoin and AI. Can you, if there is a crash in the AI part can you pivot back to Bitcoin? Because what's really interesting is this week Bitcoin went up while AI stocks were crashing. So really bitcoin is just being its own thing. There is no real thesis around it's it used to be correlated to AI stocks, then the AI stocks significantly outperformed Bitcoin and then the AI stocks have its correction and Bitcoin goes up. So that whole relationship around what Bitcoin is, it is its own thing. It is its own fixed supply economics and short term it's a crazy beast. But the only way to do that is to dollar cost average for the long term into an investment position and then you decide your allocations around that. Well anyway it pivoted from bitcoin mining and now it's in the AI HPC area. And it will be really interesting to watch how you can go from AI to Bitcoin mining or whether it just goes down the AI route, locks in long term contracts and how that all plays out especially with these valuations. And what comes next with the, the China rug pool that I think is built into the equation. Personally the demand for AI infrastructure I think is going to be solid for many, many years and whatever happens there. But the Citadel was one of the cornerstone investors that makes me very skeptical. So I think right now it is probably likely that if you're looking to sell your shares at these prices, you may be speculation selling to Citadel. And I think Citadel seems to be building a larger position there as well as all the other AI infrastructure. So read that as you wish and think about the capital rotation. We'll keep, we'll keep asking that. So you know the questions you have to ask yourself is this bullish for AI infrastructure as a result of this or is this part of the securities lending opportunity and a wider big picture that the financial industrial complex is building is it market making opportunity for them? But we'll follow the institutional capital nonetheless as we continue on this AI trade. So also a date to be interested in is a lot of the AI infrastructure and bitcoin mining in the US with the public companies has concentrated around ERCOT in Texas and there is new regulations that are coming through that will be determining who gets more allocations. And allocations have become extremely scarce in this AI world. And so everyone that's applied Ionic Digital is applied as well. But the August is the timing of whether those applications are going to be approved or not. And if they get approved and it leads to a higher allocation, then you can see that there is so much demand from this AI play at the moment. And that leads to, you know, significant additional power capacity. Will it lead to more contracts? But April will be where we can watch and see what happens around that. You know, the choke points that are happening right now is AI GPUs, computers, which goes into the, the chips trade and then of course the electricity and the electricity allocation. So the execution of this now depends upon power. Then there's a regulatory chokehold. If you get additional capacity, then these are kind of the things that are happening right now in terms of these transitions. But that's expected to carry on until right up until 2027. And I think demand will be there regardless up until 2030. So, you know, it's not just the chips play. Power is becoming one of the key assets. Which really ties into my long term thesis, if you've been a long term listener, that it was AI that was going to lead to a massive realignment and repricing event in the Middle east that led into the geopolitics and everything that's happening right now. So this I think is a good time to go into the geopolitics. Right. So with there was a visit from the Netanyahu in the White House this week and who went to meet Netanyahu. Remember all those Israel rules the world and Netanyahu is the king of the world, people. And I mean now he doesn't even get anyone important meeting him at the airport. I told you Netanyahu and Israel are nodes of the military industrial complex. The mick exits when they do a deal with the fic. And you can make regional, you know, regional reinvestment more profitable than the forever war. The forever war is coming to an end. This is an operation to end the forever war in the Middle East. Realign the Middle east with West Asia more aligned with China based upon China capital and Gulf capital. And then therefore there is a, you know, when you don't have a forever war, what is the role for Israel? Because Israel is a mcnode. Their job is to destabilize the region so that they can increase the revenue for MIC companies. And it was leading into this year many of the. Because the Israeli stock market has done well relative to the economy. That is the FIC asset stripping operation. Exactly what's happening in uk, exactly what's happening in America. That Means that there's going to be now state military industrial complex assets that are being privatized and a percentage of it is being IPO'd, which can then be purchased by foreign investors. And so this is the distress, you know, this is the acquisition strategy of how you weaken the state, privatize the assets and then realign Israel around who the new shareholders of the companies are. And leading into that there was Abraham Accords, which is the where UAE was able to then invest. And so everyone builds their own narrative of what's happening now. Do I like this? I'm just reporting on what is happening by following the money. And so you can see that probably one of the cornerstone investors in the MIC assets in Israel will probably be the Gulf countries. Others will interpret that as they're under the control of Zionism. But if you follow the money purchasing that means you get influence over that, which means then you can change the geopolitics of the region. And so what else did we happen? So we had Netanyahu who got a very, you know, normally, you know, it wasn't him going to Congress, getting his round of applause, nobody met him at the airport. There was no red card, red carpet treatment. There was just your token statements from the Trump administration and Netanyahu. But when he comes, it's because things aren't going the way he wants them to go as a mick node. And my long term theory is that he will be regime change, he's negotiating his exit and then Israel become more thick, aligned in a post forever war model. In order to achieve that, then there is no need for resistance. And so Iran, which had sat down with Saudi Arabia via China normalization, had effectively already normalized in 2023. And you need a transitional war in order to go through all these realignments. So in the Iran side, where is the axis and where is the action? I was talking about how Lebanon would most likely be a holdout clause. Gaza while they continue to get as much land as possible. You know, the crimes against humanity are still as bad as they've always been. But Gaza, you would enter into a deal with Hamas. Then there was the announcement of the border peace. And so Trump this week starts bringing up the question of board and peace again. And we get rumors that Hamas is entering into the next phase of disarmament. Now these were things that everyone that said Israel rules the world thought that could never happen. But from my perspective, all of these, the, the, you know, the resistance that was backed by Iran is no longer backed by Iran. And so therefore it moves into a state and political integration process because it removes the, what I've always called opera Operation Gladio strategic tension I. E. Iran and Israel always, you know, death to America, death to Israel. Israel saying they're trying to attack the Jews and we're surrounded by enemies and their terrorists. And that made the mick. Trillions and trillions of dollars. If the FCC is in control, which I think it is moving towards here, then the forever war ends, Israel's role change and Iran needs to shed the resistance and any of the proxy aligned in exchange for state armies and state politics. And so, you know, you'll get, I think you're, you're getting movements towards the settlement with Hamas, you're getting movement towards the outcome with Hezbollah. And this, you know, everything is a, it's a different strategy. So Iran needs this event in order to maintain its IRGC power structure and maintain and get as much out of this negotiation as it possibly can. So this is diplomacy alongside military operations. And the diplomacy is an alignment with FIC to prevent the forever war model and a regional stability and a recognition of China's new role in the region. China's purchasing all, most of the energy from both Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, everyone else. And so a regional framework is what comes at the end of this. And that started as I said, in probably earlier than 2023, but the optics of it was the Saudi Iran deal and that was signed in 2023. And this is the execution. Saudi and the Gulf countries don't want resistance there because then it doesn't justify Israel. And if Israel is being acquired more and more and it's going to be integrated into the Gulf region, then through this normalization with Iran, Iran is more aligned with China. You destroy the certain infrastructure and rebuild contracts, determine the region. Iran starts destroying many of the US infrastructure, we got additional escalation there that leads to rebuild contracts. And then we have the final part of the negotiation, the 300 billion dollar investment in Iran. And also what happens with the choke points which are very, very important because if the US is exiting, which I think this is, then US can no longer, you know, protect the global trade and global sea. And so it was that 2023 agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia executing over time in a strategic way. And that was because Saudi couldn't do Vision 2030 when there's lots of resistance and fighting and constant tension with the Houthis and so, and, and so they entered into normalization. Now what did Iran want? Well, Iran, if it's moving into this new vision it needs a way of shedding what it had been backing and states becoming states again. And that's what I think we're witnessing. What did China want? China wanted energy security. It just wanted stability and diversification. It didn't want, you know, you know, so there's energy from Iran, there's energy from the Gulf countries and China wants it stable way of getting its energy. So the only way to achieve that is to unwind the sponsorship of resistance and, and stop executing the MIC model. Now some people get very offended by that. You know, I'm just saying what the money is saying when you follow the money and taking out the emotions. I've always said if you put the humanitarian hat in, do I think this is right? Do I think this is good? Well, I do think this is better than the MC Forever war model. And I do think the strategic tension between Iran and Israel changes the industry. I think it's disgusting what's happened in, in Gaza. I think what, what ends up will be better, but it won't be justice. I think what ends up in Israel is the whole thing is just, you know, I've made my opinions very clear about that, but what I want isn't what is happening. And so what is happening is what we need to really focus on. So what happened this week anyway? Well, we got escalations in Iraq and we got escalations in Yemen and then we got the announcement from Hamas and the Gaza side. So that's the whole thing if you think about it. Yemen, there was an agreement signed with Houthis. Now we escalate it further. There's joint operations between us and Saudi Arabia. They're not. Nobody in Iran is bombing Israel, which tells you everything. If this was something else, you'd expect significant targeting of Israel. And that means in my interpretation that, that the Mick and the FIC have come to a deal on what happens with Israel and Iran is executing what the destruction that is needed to get us out of the region. And then there is negotiations and we will find out exactly what the integrations look like slowly over time. So when there's re escalation with the Houthis in Yemen, that's moving towards that negotiation. When there's escalation with Hezbollah in Lebanon, that's moving towards that negotiation. When there's escalation in Iraq and the various resistance and forces that that is movement towards that and Iran is they everything to me looks very, very strategic while the world looks like it's going towards World War iii. And so I think it's interesting that Trump brought up that border peace. Now remember the most important thing is who funds the Iran rebuild, the the Gulf country rebuild and what the the funding of the board and peace looks like and or whether that infrastructure even holds in the end that determines what was really happening here. Excuse me, let me grab some water. And so the fact that that narrative is returning whilst the price of oil isn't escalating to anything concerning gold's not doing anything concerning yields are rising then to me this means that everything we're seeing again escalate to de escalate bounded escalation in order to further towards a deal that changes the region and changes everything. And so the Saudi decided that it was going to be putting some pressure on many of the Iraq militias here and Yemen operations continued. There was strikes from the Houthis in Saudi on energy. Energy did have a reaction but nothing like what we saw before. Again bounded escalation then a reaction from Saudi as well. This is resolving all of the choke points. So the most important choke points straight or form moose within Iran and obviously Amon has a piece of that as well. So we also excuse my voice is going a little bit. I haven't do a Simon Dixon hard talk live for a while because I've been writing my book for those of you that don't know. I'll give you a bit of an outline of the book at the end. We're going really well. I'm really enjoying writing this book and I've actually even built an AI model that I'm going to be releasing for everyone as well that kind of allows you to take McFeek and tick. So subordinate and sovereign pressures apply it to yourself countries and businesses because many people ask that in the comments. What's the best jurisdiction to live in? How do I prepare for this? What do I need to do? I've been feeding and looking at all of your comments under the YouTube video and in the Simon Dixon Hard Talk free membership portal as well. So keep that feedback coming. It's really helped me in the writing and developing the model and it's going to turn into something much bigger to really help people through this as well. But anyway, that's why I haven't, you know, been doing as many episodes or they've been shorter episodes but there was a bunch of stuff happening and people were saying I really need to check in here. So I just wanted to keep people on track and give my analysis as well. So keep watching the straight up Hormuz. There was a proposal from IMAN to run it jointly with Iran. Iran rejected it. And that will lead to, you know, further what it looks like because Aman effectively is a proxy for the Gulf side and all interests will be considered and Iran will want to make sure it's got as much of its leverage as possible. But it will be in a regional way. So we'll see exactly how that, how that comes out. But I expect that they're probably negotiating where the FIC in order to get rid of the mick, which then means you control Israel, the military industrial complex, they're probably wanting a piece of the action. And so I reckon there's a FIC negotiation via Trump, there's a MIC exit via Netanyahu. And then the Gulf countries and the sovereign wealth funds aligned with the FIC will be negotiating with Iran. And Amman will be the conduit there as well as Qatar that has the relationship. And then eventually Pakistan is acting as a proxy for China right now because China has been investing in the Belt and Road initiative to counter IMF pressure. And so then we need to watch who's, who's in charge of Hormuz. It's Oman and Iran. And whatever happens there will set the, you know, the, the, the order that then leads to what happens with the Bab Al Mandeb and the Red Sea, which then leads into Egypt and the, Egypt's control over the Suez Canal. So these are very, very important things that will, will come out. So what happens then? You get the escalation between Yemen and Saudi. So I'm expecting these are all moving towards resolution as a result of it. Who controls these main choke points? That sets very important indicators. So who invests in the rebuild, how is that structured and who ends up controlling the choke points? This will be the most important geopolitical change of our lifetime because it then goes out to all the different types of choke points as well. And marine sovereignty, based upon your proximity to the seas that are no longer controlled by the US and then the FIC trying to get as much of it can based upon its leverage is really defining what's happening. And they're obviously renting out the MICK and the military to try and get as much leverage in those negotiations as well. But if it has toll taking, how that is executed, if it's service fee, how is that executed? Iran said it wanted to take payments in Bitcoin and it was building a bitcoin payment service. With this oil coming on the market, opec, what is it going to be priced in? Is it going to be priced in Yuan, Is it going to be priced in bitcoin? Is it going to be priced in dollars? What is the mix that happened there? It can be priced in there, but it could be settled in other currencies as well. That then leads into the sanction removal and everything we've been covering over the months ahead. What are the GCC incentives as well? What are the Iran incentives? And when the GCC incentives and the Iran incentives and the FIC incentives all align, then you get escalation, escalate to de escalate and then a resolution. So we'll see what happens with the Houthis. We'll keep, you know, we'll keep watching that and I believe that it ends anyway into a similar thing to what we saw with Hamas in Gaza, but integration with the political process and the state army. But the end thing, what is happening here? Reduction of U S footprint, wherever this happens, reduction of U S footprint. That means the Middle east is becoming West Asia aligned with China while US is handing off MICK to FIC and FIC is trying to get as much leverage as it can through MICK and they're negotiating with tick technology, you know, AI infrastructure, you know, AI data center build outs, Nvidia chips. This is what's happening when you really follow the money behind the, the, the headline. Because US is not a sovereign country, it is a thick owned country that is able to leverage its MC and tick. I got to stop pounding on the desk. I think it creates a bit of a noise. I get a little bit excited as well. But then that leads to at the end of this, an integration into regional security. And we've already seen the makeup of that. The, the, the regional MICK that has the industrial base in Turkey, the regional army, the strongest army being both Turkey, Pakistan and Egypt, the nuclear power of Pakistan and then the funding of the Gulf countries led by Saudi Arabia as the most important node and the integration into Iran that has the manufacturing base, the China relationships, the mick, the infrastructure and then with sanction relief, the, the new rebuild contracts and whatever thick alignment comes out of all of that. But anyway, I, what we're witnessing right now, if you ask me this is the dismantling of militant groups in line with an acceptable narrative in order to move forward with the regional stability network. So just a quick recap of my framework and how we describe this. Trump, I've always said, is a thick node completely aligned with the financial industrial complex. Israel has historically been a MIC node and so in order to. But there's going to be more privatization of those Military companies away from the state, which means that the state mcnode is, is moving, moreover gradually towards being a FIC node, which is privatized global transnational capital. So these are different incentives and what needs to change? Well, Netanyahu needs to change. And so we will keep watching for what happens leading up to the politics in October and that will tell us a lot. And we'll keep following the money around there. I expect that Netanyahu has negotiated his exit and there'll be a GCC aligned, but leading up to that, there'll be lots of radical Zionist rhetoric that leans into the narrative that gets the additional negotiations and land grabs, more crimes against humanity. What's happening in the west bank is horrific. What's happening in Gaza still continue these war crimes. And we need to, on the humanitarian side, we really need to watch what is the end structure, whether it's border peace or whether it's something else. But who invests in the rebuild, how it's structured. And that will tell us a lot around what's really happening here once that happens. Okay. Anyway, follow the incentives, not the headlines. Right, before we go over to the interview, I wanted to close off on some of the bitcoin stuff. So last week I released a blog, if you haven't watched it yet, many people were asking me, what is Your position on BIP110? What's the game theory? Follow the money. So I did my follow the money analysis on both sides. Who's pushing it, what's behind it. I also went through the game theory and the different steps. I tied it to a lot of the history. It's a very long blog, but if you are a bitcoiner, and you are, you hold Bitcoin, then you should really get yourself up to date with what's happening with bip and bip110. I gave my reasoning for why I support it and I just wanted to give a timeline of what we're watching and what the next steps are. So we need to watch. Signaling is what we're, what is what we're witnessing. So last time during the block size war, there was signaling. You know, an alternative implementation was developed. It was called segwit2.x. I'm not going to go deep into this, but I want to make sure you understand that there was a resistance against that called user activated soft fork. That's where the nodes got together and they use their node power in order to resist against a change that the big companies, the big miners wanted called SegWit2.x. And that was to increase the block size by 2 and also get a new change called segregated Witness that would allow for what's called layer two scaling so that you could have the lightning network and various other things. But right towards the end, it wasn't right until the block when the miners changed their signaling and you had a capitulation from the miners. Now, I'm not saying whether that's going to happen or whether that's not going to happen, but that's what I'm going to be watching and that's what you need to watch. So what is the miners going to be signaling and what's the deadline? Well, there's going to be a, you know, there's a block that will happen around probably August 7th. We don't know the exact date because it depends on block propagation and how much hash power is behind Bitcoin. But the most important thing is to watch what the miners do in terms of their signaling now. And in the, in the current version of Bitcoin, you have to get 95% mining consensus with big. With bip110, it reduces it to 55%. I have my concerns about that. That's one of the things I do have my concerns about. But you have to get 55 mining consensus and what a miner is allowed to do if they contribute electricity to mining blocks and they get the block reward and the fee, that's how bitcoin is designed. And then the rules are run by nodes. Anyone can run a node. As long as nodes are cheap, anyone can do that. That's half of the battle here. And the developers can implement the changes and you can. A bit is a bitcoin improvement proposal. And so is that triad or decentralization. And there's always attack vectors to try and centralize parts of those. But at this stage, what we look at is what the miners are signaling. And miners consist of those that are actually mining and they point their hard equipment and electricity towards a mining pool. The way a mining pool works is a mining pool is if you're mining, you want to make sure that you receive some bitcoin, even if you don't, you know, if you don't win that block reward every time, you know, every 10 minutes when you're mining. And so a mining pool normalizes your income. You can point your hash power as a miner towards a mining pool. And those mining pools then have a port, an important power, you know, they can then they can signal. Now, the most important miners and mining pools are foundry, which is connected to Digital Currency Group and Barry Silbert. Now they were behind segwit2x and they tried to concentrate all the corporate power in the last, in the last block war debate and then they launched their own mining operations and foundry. So that is kind of the US corporate power aligned. Now today we've got Microstrategy and we've got blackrock and we've got bigger and bigger players but they're you know, kind of the corporate aligned part of the hash power and the, and the mining pools. Then you've got other ones which were mainly from what I call the China aligned bit main. Jihyun Wu if you were around in the last block war, you know the large bit miners that produce the A6 they have the mining pools and they engage in mining Now a lot of the mining went from China over to America. That created some of these big and that's why Foundry became more important. But this is Ant Paul, this is via BTC, this is F2Ball. These kind of came from, you know, the, the Chinese scene and have changed over time but a lot of them were aligned with the historical big book. So these are the ones that historically had to do the last minute signal change and in the case of which is the largest public companies and you got Mara, which has its own pool and then Luxor and then you've got the resistance and the resistance comes from Ocean. And Ocean has a very small minority here, about 1 to 2%. And obviously they're signaling for BIP 110. And so at the moment there is very, very small signaling. It doesn't really matter. If that continues as the way that happens, then this just moves on. We've got that block when we need to watch which is around about August 7, which is just around the corner. And so far it's only really Ocean which is connected to BIP 110 that's creating the resistance. Everyone else is waiting for the block and deciding where they're going to sit there. And so as I said, the threshold for BIP110 is now 55% and 55% signaling is the next step. So if it is activated then after this block in September we have the activation of BIP 110. Then the core developers, they decide what they're going to do and then there may be some resistance against it. And then this bip110 is a temporary soft fork for one year. And now whether that leads to a hard fork where you get a couple of coins. We covered that last week. That's a game theory. I don't really want to go through all of that right now. But the, the point is that this is what we're waiting for next. We're waiting for do we get to 55% signaling before that block, which happens around August 7th and if we don't, what happens after that? And so it is, you know, an automatic expiry after that one year as well if it's not renewed. So if we don't get that 55% signaling, then Bitcoin is unchanged and we look for what if there's another resistance that's built up and everything continues and so that's the next thing just for us to watch. And yeah, and so we'll see. Does the debate continue? There are a couple of resistance that can come from that. If we do get the 55% minor signaling and it does activate, then we might get a user resisted soft fork against bip 110. That's not automatic. Or there may be another type of resistance attempt after this. Now we'll see. But all of those are possible. And there may be more possible opposition that organizes. But this is how the decentralized bitcoin improvement proposals works. And the developers are able to implement that and then the miners are able to signal and then the nodes are able to resist and decide what rules to enforce. So let's watch. This is how social consensus works. And the most important thing that I think came out of this is everyone having a greater understanding of governance and maintaining the fact that whenever miners get centralized, whenever nodes get centralized, whenever development gets centralized, then we have these resistance movements that then leads to a social consensus. Now there was one more topic, so that's what we're watching out for next that I wanted to cover. And that's what happened with ColdCard. So if you have a hardware wallet called ColdCard, there was an announcement that was announced that, that if you have a version of Cold Card, and I just want to go through what I saw here, please do your own research. I can't guarantee that this is accurate. You can't use this information to hold me accountable. I just want to make sure that this is under your radar in case you used Cold Card as your hardware wallet. And so what actually happened? Well, when you set up a hardware wallet, there is your Bitcoin is your keys and your job is to protect your keys. And so you either give your keys to somebody else, which is holding them on an exchange, or a centralized wallet like Coinbase, or you hold your own keys. Now if you don't hold your own keys, you don't get to participate, you don't get to run nodes, you are subordinate to whoever is holding your keys. And all the confiscation rules, bankruptcies, like what happened in the Celsius side, whatever can happen whenever you have some Bitcoin with someone else. So when you hold your own keys, one way of holding them is through a hardware wallet. And a hardware wallet just protects your keys and it gives you a way of accessing your key via a hardware wallet with a password on it. And it gives you also a way of generating what's called a seed phrase. A seed phrase is a way, a bunch of words that give you access to your key. And so if you lose your hardware wallet, for example, your key is not on the hardware wallet, your key is just a conduit, sorry, your hardware wallet is just a conduit to your key to protect it. But when you load your bitcoin onto a hardware wallet, you enter your seed phrase and your seed phrase is a way of getting through the key. Sorry if this is geeky and technical. I do have a completely free course that I did in the bitcoin, sorry, in the Simon Dixon Hardtalk membership portal where I got Andreas Antonopoulos and myself and others to create a whole free course like eight videos on cold wallets and, and these types of things and additional security you can have on top. So you can head over to SimonDixon.com is completely free, become a member and you can access that course as well. But the, when you, when you use a hardware wallet, you've got a couple of ways of using it. You either already have the phrase, the passphrase of a previous key, or you use the wallet to generate it. And what apparently happened with cold card based upon the information that I can see the seed phrase generation tool that they were using unique to Coal Card, the seed phrase, basically it was called entropy, it had a flaw, there was an entropy floor and that's what happened. And I want you to go do your own research. Anyway, so what actually what this meant is that some wallets were compromised based upon if they used this wallet to generate a seed phrase, if you didn't use this wallet to generate a seed phrase, then apparently you're not affected by this. And also it's a specific version because the wallet upgraded its version prior before that as well. So some wallets were compromised and who was it? So apparently the affected cold card was if you generated seeds between a particular time and I want you to go don't rely on me for this. I just want you to point to this so that you can follow the threads and get the official updates from others that are following this. But if you imported your seed, then apparently you're not affected. So if you use between a particular date, if you got your wallet after, please don't quote me on this. 2023, then apparently they made an upgrade that doesn't affect this. So it was those, I believe between 21 and 21 and 23 that generated a phrase using cold card. That's the specific attack vector allegedly there are, you know, the, the, the, the hack exploit was able to drain that based upon those, those exploits. Now other hardware wallets, they don't use apparently the same thing. And again, you can't rely on me for any of this. This is you doing your own research. I just want to make sure that the information is in front of you. What I found out and what I've gathered from this because I wanted to give you some of the information. The seed generation implementations that Coldcard used at that time is what you should be checking for. Whether, you know, there are different ways of generating those phrase. You can roll a dice and do it. If you did that, no problem. It is using that particular wallet to generate the seed phrase and that software is what had the compromise. So apparently what people say as well is that there's no similar vulnerabilities have been announced with any other wallets. Anyone else, it's, that's what it's been, you know, isolated down to right now. But what I want you to do is if you have a hardware wallet, I want you to ask AI about this, I want you to research some of the official announcements on this and I want you to ask your hardware wallet provider how you know, entropy is generated and how it's audited on their wallet and ask them specifically about this and grow comfortable with that answers. And so that's the piece of the exercise that I'd like you to do. If you're using a hardware wallet. Now, what have they recommended? Well, what they've recommended and what Cold Card have recommended as well is to update the firmware and to generate a new seed and in a calm environment move your funds over after generating that new seed in a new environment. And this is an opportunity for you to go to the next grade of security, learn and ask the questions, how was that seed phrase generated? How do I do it better? And you know and learn from this process. And that's the, the way to do that. Now before you send any funds, always do a test transaction. Whenever you send Bitcoin it's irreversible. So you should always do a test transaction and then verify the backup. So that's your homework. Longer term you really want to be considering, you know, whether you want to use a multi signature setup. And we did discuss this in the, in the free course you can start seeing if this is an opportunity for you to do that. But this would have been protected the other way is when you're generating your seed phrase use dice in order to do that and you can start researching that. But anyway these are the types of solution and the most important thing is to use this opportunity to learn bit more about key generation. And so that's what I wanted to leave you with anyway. And also a very important message, nothing to do with Bitcoin. This isn't a bitcoin hack. Bitcoin didn't fail. This is a specific implementation of a specific hardware for those that use a specific method for generating a key. And there's been a compromise which meant that those bitcoins were drained by, by the hacker as well. Okay, so the types of things anyway, key generation matters, that's the, the homework for you. Don't rely upon the one seed. Look at multi signature and let's close all this together because this is everything I've got for you until we move over to part two. So I'd like to close off by the markets. The reason that there was the wrecking of the hedge fund is because of leverage. And leverage is where you always get done borrowing against your Bitcoin using derivatives. It's the key tool of the financial industrial complex to get hold of your assets. So if you are using leverage, which I don't think you should be, if you are using leverage, make sure you never end up in a position where everything can get wrecked. That's the message from the hedge fund casualty because the FIC is ready to swoop up. Is this a leverage unwind or is this an AI collapse? I think we got further to go but we'll keep following the institutional capital in order to follow that as well. On the bitcoin side, watch bip110 over the next one to two weeks. What happens with those mining pools in the security side? Review your self custody setup. Understand your key seed generation is your homework. And consider multi signature on the geopolitics side, let's keep watching the incentives over the headlines. Don't get distracted by the headlines. People want you thinking that this is going to World War Three. People think this is. They're analyzing it from the perspective of emotions. We are humans, we have emotions. But when you follow the money, it helps you understand the truth and it helps you take a step back. Watch the choke points. Those are the most important things. How are those resolved? What is the structure of it and who ends up in control of them? That resets the world order. Watch the Israeli politics leading up to October. Don't believe what they're saying. See what's happening in, in actuality. And watch the evolving relationship between the FIC and the MIC in relation to the big investment contracts and rebuild contracts. That's what's going to set this regional transition. And the regional transition is still unfolding, as my analysis has said, because the markets is telling us that. And so that's where I want to end right now, before we go into part two and the interview. Right, what I wanted to do to cap off is I wanted to do a big, a bit of a reveal on what the book is about and it's actually going to lead to another book because I wanted to really go in depth into the bitcoin side. But I thought it needed its own book. So I'm going to be revealing what this is about and I'd love your feedback in the comments and I'd love your feedback in the membership portal on SimonDixon.com now I'm gonna my team, what they've done is they've taken all the feedback in the membership portal, given me a model, and I've been feeding that into the AI when I'm writing my book. At the same time, I've also built out a model that you're going to be able to use in terms of these different parameters. So let me explain the book to you a little bit more and then I'd love to get some of your feedback both in the comments and some longer feedback in the free Simon Dixon membership portal. So the book is called Game of Money and it's about becoming starting point, subordinate to becoming sovereign. And it's broken down into three parts and there's going to be 21 chapters, seven chapters per part, and each part deals with a different part of the game of money. And the goal is to give you all the tools that you need on this spectrum from subordinate to sovereign, knowing that you're never going to be fully sovereign, but give you everything you need on that journey and then really explaining it from real life experience. That's happened to me as well as using it to analyze events in real Time so that you've got all the models and everything that I use. And then I've even asked AI to put together some models so that we can open source it and we can start to use it. And this will really help us in our Simon Dixon hardtalk lives if I give you access to those tools. So I hope you understand why me taking the time out and not following all the news. I gave you one today, but I've been taking the time out to really get this done because I really want to produce something useful in this transition because I do believe we're in a massive change. And so what is part one? Well, part one is about understanding the game. So I want you to understand. Chapter one is about defining the game of money. Chapter two is about the spectrum. I want you to understand what it means to be subordinate and what it means to be sovereign and what that actually means, what that spectrum is on every level. Chapter three, I then go through the financial industrial complex, the fic, and define it very specifically in terms of a model so that we can analyze power dynamic dynamics and we can analyze our subordination to the figure. In chapter four, I do the military industrial complex, the mic. In chapter five, I do the technical industrial complex, the tick, and I outline it very, very specifically, who the players are, what you need to understand, how to analyze them and how it relates back to you. Importantly, there's another thing I do in every chapter I gave. I give you a way to win the game. And by the end we have 21 ways to win the game. And then that builds into a model and a plan that you can put together in order to get yourself from subordinate to sovereign. So in chapter six, I cover the alliance. I talk about how the fic, the mick and the ticks and they, how they all work together and how they move together as one and how it doesn't require a grand conspiracy. Then in chapter seven, I answer that question, who's actually on top specific? The owners and the controllers. Who are the people that really run the game and who runs the world. And I go very specifically into those dynamics and how they work together. And then that sets up everything into understanding the game of money. In part two. Now we understand the game, we have to understand the rules. So part two is all about learning the rules. Now you know the rules. Once I know the rules, I then know how to analyze. And so it starts again with an analytical framework in chapter eight, Follow the money. This is the method and the, the method that I've been using. Then in Chapter nine, we go through how it applies to each of the markets. So when I'm discussing on Simon Dixon Hard Talk Live, I may be discussing a number of markets. What are the real things that I'm looking for in getting an overview of what's actually happening in the market so I can follow the money. So chapter nine is about the debt market. Chapter 10 is about the commodity market. Chapter 10 is about the currency market. Sorry, that was chapter 11. Chapter 12 is about the bond market. And chapter 12 is about the equity market. I think I've messed that up. Anyway, you get the point. I do all the different markets. Chapter 13 is the Equity market. Anyway, and then it ends on chapter 14, the asset managers and how to read the asset managers so that you can then interpret what's happening with, with with real money, the capital, as we always do. And so I've really defined all those there, but I've also done it with a live case study and where I actually ran a model on all the different countries, many of the different businesses, all the key important nodes and individuals. And I stress test it in the model and ended up with a model that you can use because I've been inputting it all into AI in order to build that algorithm. And then we'll create a nice user interface at the end of it. Then in chapter so that's chapter 14, so we follow the money and then we end up with all the different markets and we test it in real time with real events that are happening right now. Then we move over to the third and final part. So you understand the game of money, you know the rules. So what's part three? Of course it's winning the game. How do you win the game of money? That's the whole purpose. Why do we try and understand all this? So chapter 15 is what I call the sovereign mind. I want you to have a framework for understanding how to see past conspiracy theories, see past psyops and see past media manipulation, political manipulation and really tune your mind to win this game. Because in the end it is a mental game. It is a that we need to win. So in chapter 15 we do the sovereign mind. In chapter 16 we go through the sovereign individual. So how to build yourself through that spectrum from subordinate to sovereign. In chapter 17 we go through the sovereign business and structuring and how to use those tools. In chapter 18 we go through the sovereign country and how to select your country and your jurisdictions that you can use. Chapter 19 we go through the sovereign assets. How to allocate like an Asset manager and what assets make you more sovereign, which ones make you more subordinate, and how to manage those allocations. In chapter 20 we go through the sovereign soul. This is the real game, this is what I really want to get to and make sure you have all the tools to get there. And then finally in Chapter 21 we cover the 21 Ways to Win the game of money. And that brings you through the whole book. And what I said, I'm building out a. I'm feeding everything into AI as I'm reading it, building out an algorithm and then I'm going to ask AI to build a free tool that we'll release out there for anyone to have a way of measuring continually your subordination and your sovereignty and how to what decisions you can make to go along that spectrum. So that's everything that I've been working through and I'd love your feedback on what you think about that, what you'd like to see, what you think is missing, what you think should be included. And there's two ways to do that. Put a quick comment down, but it won't be included in the AI scraping or go over to SimonDixon.com create a free membership for you and I'll make sure you get priority notice. You get access to contributing to topics in the book. You get content that you can't get anywhere else. It's all completely free. You get that course on self custody and how to protect yourself from these different setups and situations. And many of my previous content. And even a free copy of the book that I wrote in 2011, bank to the future. Protect your future before governments go bust. You can take the PDF, put it into AI and even analyze it against my latest book as it comes out. So that's everything I've got for you. Always remember, you are alive at one of the most interesting and exciting times in financial history. Some are going to get wrecked, others are going to do really well. I want to make sure you're on the right side of that change. And really the whole purpose of me writing that book, as I've covered in previous videos, was that 26 years ago my father asked me what happened to my money. He didn't know how the game worked, he didn't know the rules, and he didn't know how to win. And so in this book I finally answer that question. He passed away before I got to give him the question. But it was in that passing, and this is the part of the sovereign soul that I really figured out what the game really means and the message that I'd like to pass on to him. And so in answering his question, I've answered the question for everybody that wants to follow me. And so if you want more people to understand the answer to that question, I ask you a favor, please like this video. Please share this video with anyone that you think would get value from it. Please head over to download this on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or you can Download it from SimonDixon.com Join the membership portal. That's where I'm going to give you all the priority access and message you and make sure you've got all these tools available to you. Probably put them in the membership portal and figure out how we're going to deliver that as it happens. And in case I get taken out of YouTube, make sure you follow me on Rumble. And if I get taken off Rumble, then we're going to be doing streaming from SimonDixon.com so make sure you got a free membership. I've been a bit quiet on X recently, but later I'll get back to giving some more real time updates on X, so follow me over there. All the links are in SimonDixon.com and in the description, so I hope that you enjoyed this. We've been taking smaller content. I wanted to give you a Simon Dixon Hard Talk and now we'll move over to the interview where we delve into an insider inside the media machine asking me some questions and us sharing our experiences and why I believe that politicians are paid for rent prostitutes. Enjoy the interview and I'll see you this time next week on Simon Dixon Hard Talk LIVE with more updates. Peace.