← Simon Dixon Hard Talk
Simon Dixon Hard Talk
Bitcoin Below $60K: Why the Liquidity Crisis Is Just Beginning | Simon Dixon on Bitcoin Archive w/ Archie | 2 June 2026 (Part Two)
01:12:42
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- [00:00]
A
Simon, Bitcoin is now being accepted for payment at the Strait of Hormuz.
- [00:05]
B
Let's put some disclaimers out there. Nothing we're talking about is circumventing sanctions. That's a serious crime, circumventing sanctions. And so what I'm really talking about is as an intellectual exercise, but I think the bitcoin and Iran story is the real adoption story. El Salvador is interesting, but it's still got the IMF layers that exist. It's still dollarized, so it's still fed imf. And there's a previous infrastructure that creates an interesting. What can you do with bitcoin in a dollarized world?
- [00:50]
A
So we're going to. Okay, we're contrasting the two separate sovereign uses of Bitcoin here. What El Salvador has done, from my point of view, has been absolutely amazing. They were the first. They went all in. Okay. They've been pressured a fair bit to sort of walk it back. And they're not really a nation at a scale or in a situation to be adversarial towards international financial institutions. They still need help. They're relatively a poor country that's still trying to get up on its feet, and they're doing a really good job of that. Iran. The reason why I find what's happening in Iran particularly interesting is because there is no nation under more severe sanctions than Iran. It is totally being antagonized by the global financial system led by the United States. And in that context, when we say bitcoin is for enemies or it's got to be adversary proof and permissionless, in that context, I kind of agree with you that it is a better proof of Bitcoin's use case.
- [02:03]
B
Yeah, I completely agree. And I think it's a big part of the story that we haven't been told yet. One day we'll know the real story, but I'm pretty sure that Iran is the largest bitcoin sovereign miner in the world.
- [02:17]
A
Didn't we see evidence of that? When was it? The first bombing or the second bombing? I don't recall.
- [02:22]
B
Yeah, that was. There was. So during the 12 day war, prior to the B2 bomber operation midnight Hammer, there was clearly an understanding that there was going to be a bombing which was. I think that was what was very theatrical. But there was clearly an understanding that one of the nuclear, you know, plants is going to be bombed. And there was lots of movements of things that seemed to be happening from, like, satellite imagery. And at the very. At the exact moment that they were moving their highly enriched Uranium. And preparing for that, there was a massive drop in bitcoin hash rate that suddenly came. Now to be fair, it did coincide with some weather outage in Texas as well, which could explain it. But the two happened at the exact same time. There was a really big drop in bitcoin hash hash rate and then the bombing happened and then the hash rate came back online like shortly after. And so one, one speculation was that they were using nuclear power plants in order to mine Bitcoin, which we do have an example of that in US as a Terra Terror Wolf. It doesn't scale, but they managed, they've managed to get like $0.02 energy cost to be the one of the most efficient bitcoin miners in the world. But they only managed to get like a couple of thousand ASICs from my understanding into that. And now we've got AI competing for things.
- [04:06]
A
Interesting. You mentioned Terra Wolf. Just as an aside yesterday they came out with a statement saying we no longer view ourselves as a bitcoin mining company. We're an energy infrastructure company. Yeah. And I think we're going to that. It's going to be a really interesting discussion to see how that all plays out. Because now AI essentially not only competing for capital from bitcoin, the bitcoin ecosystem, but also now for energy. And we might see a lot of these corporate consolidated, centralized bitcoin miners massively pivot away from bitcoin mining. And so a lot of the bitcoin maxis will end up getting what they wanted, which is a decentralization of the hash rate.
- [04:45]
B
Yeah, agree. And that's why bitcoin is so interesting, because it can adjust to these large corporate interests that are mining and it can adjust to the downside and then you just get the difficulty rate adjustment and we get to a more decentralized network, which is why it's so interesting. But I think a big part of the story was Iran's ability to use a civilian nuclear energy program to mine bitcoin. And when you look at all the different rails, it's very interesting that they were from the public bits that we can see, they were using stablecoins and tether on Tron, which we know has freeze functions. And so it's not like Iran didn't know that, you know what I mean? It's like it's not something we know that they wouldn't have known. And then at the same time, when all those confiscations was happening with Iran's tether and tether had to pull the freeze function, we got that whole hacks and defi stuff all seems very coincidental that these things happened at the same time. But the bitcoin they couldn't touch. And so it genuinely shows that a real threat to the FIC is the ability for a sovereign country to have its own nuclear energy program and mine bitcoin. And then when we got this story that they will accept they're doing a bespoke insurance service and the only way to pay is in bitcoin. I'm not sure to the extent of what that's like, but they did release a website and the whole thing was that they were saying that they're going to become. Well, it was an attack not just on Swift, but it was also attack on Lloyds of London because they were looking at, it's not quite insurance, but you can imagine how an insurance model could happen here with all on chain transactions and pulled together into a multi signature wallet. You could imagine how that can work in the future. But they said the insurance contract will be delivered by cryptographic proof within the bitcoin blockchain and it will be held in some kind of multi signature setup and then upon delivery the funds are transferred. So whether they're using the full extent of what Bitcoin can do in order to develop a new parallel bitcoin insurance market that circumvents both Swift and Lloyds of London, I think it signals to us that Iran is going to be most likely that sovereign country that utilizes Bitcoin to the fullest extent with no custodians the way that Bitcoin was actually designed. And so I was really interested in watching that progress and I think there's been a lot of progress that hasn't made the headlines for obvious reasons.
- [07:44]
A
Have we been able to spot any on chain activity related to Iran yet? I haven't seen anyone profile anything yet.
- [07:52]
B
No, I haven't seen any decent analysis yet. There was also the potential that just break off corruption was happening and they were accepting Bitcoin and saying, yeah, we'll get you your shipment or something. I mean, I can't imagine a country at the sovereign level falling for something like that. But the reality is, is that, you know, right now you need Lloyds of London insurance, you need America to provide Lloyds of London with assurance they're not going to attack a shipment. And you need to do the same on the IRGC side. That's how you get a shipment free. Right now the only country willing to do that is China or someone that's got a guarantee with directly with the IRGC and some kind of brokerage relationship and they've, they use bitcoin in order to try and solve that problem. So they haven't published any wallet addresses. But also I think it's interesting that they could publish those wallet addresses. But then we've got the whole coinjoin story. Right, that if they wanted to sanction those wallet addresses, they'd have to use a coinjoin and perfectly legally mix up those transactions.
- [09:08]
A
Well, that's a really interesting proposition because now we're seeing is it samurai? Not Samurai, is it Samurai Wallet?
- [09:15]
B
Yeah, Samurai Wallet is the guys that got, got taken out.
- [09:18]
A
Yeah. And we, we've seen mixers being attacked through Lawer as well. So could we in fact now see the first sovereign bitcoin slash crypto developer who builds their own mixer that everyone then uses? Because if the attack vector is on, well, we're going to go after the people who build these things. Yeah. If Iran builds it, no one can attack them. And if they build it and it's kind of in its open source as well, that makes it even more sort of open for global adoption. Suddenly we have an international bitcoin mixer that can't be attacked by the United States. So that presents an interesting proposition for people.
- [10:04]
B
Yeah, yeah. And I do remember way back in like 2013 when Chinese China national media allowed like bitcoin documentaries to air on their tv which, which has to have approval at the government level because I believe they saw it as an attack on a geopolitical attack in 2013 as well on the dollar. And so I remember those days. But yeah, it's very important for the Americans to keep an eye on what's happening with all this clarity act, genius act and all that stuff because under the Biden administration there was definitely the coordinated attack and Operation Choke 2.0, you know, FTX was on the board, was Sullivan and Cromwell, which is the CIA's law firm that was set up for them. You know, we got all these very. More and more of that's coming out as well. The Signature bank team are now speaking. They built the FTX Rails that allowed them to do all the crime. But using the blockchain settlement Rails using Signature bank and integrated with Silvergate. Just so happens all the banks that got taken out and Silicon Valley bank, so they built all that alternative Rails and there was deep, I think connections at both Celsius and FTX with deep state operations. When we transitioned to the Trump administration, he said we want to make Bitcoin capital or crypto Capital. I think he always said he did all the pardoning. Now the big pardons were connected with corruption. So at the Binance cz, UAE level and then you had the Justin Sun, World Liberty Financial, Steve Witkoff, all of that rabbit hole. But the other pardons were genuinely, I think to you know, try and from the crypto lobby. So you know, to try and win favor with the crypto lobby that emerged at the bitcoin conference. But the one that they, the Trump administration still had arrested and he did publicly comment on it, so he knows about it, was the Samurai Wallet case, which was the open source coinjoin using technology that was created a long time ago, like with Gregory Maxwell and Amir Taki and all of those early, I think operations of infiltration that tried to happen in those days. So the real common theme here is that that coin join and the interesting part about that is he didn't go down because he developed the coin join, he went down because of his comments on X where he was talking about how to facilitate money laundering in an ambiguous, ambiguous way. And then they use lawfare. So it didn't actually go, it didn't actually get taken out. So we don't have the case law. But he settled because they confiscated his funds and he said he didn't have the money to defend himself. So he settled and now he's in prison for five years. That's still something that, you know, the whole code, code is freedom of speech. That whole coinjoin stuff is the friction point, you know, so it kind of shows where they're trying to take us. They're okay with strategy, they're okay with BlackRock, they're okay with Coinbase, they're okay with everything else and they're okay with self custody. But the friction point is the privacy side which has always been, you know, the thing if you combine open source code distributed supercomputer with a network of nodes and then you combine that with privacy and anonymity via coin joins. I think they still want that for elites, but they don't want that for every person.
- [13:51]
A
Do you think there are other use cases or there are other circumstances around the world that could look upon Iran's use of Bitcoin as an example for them to take on as well?
- [14:01]
B
Yeah, I think the interesting side here is that, okay, so bitcoin and I do believe that Russia's the probably the second largest sovereign bitcoin miner and the third is uae.
- [14:11]
A
What about Ukraine before, before the war, before Russia launched war, they were deep into bitcoin mining using nuclear power, state owned nuclear power plants. But we haven't heard anything since then.
- [14:28]
B
Correct. So there's definitely a silent network that's being built in the background. Yeah, around this. And so you've got the two most sanctioned countries in the world, Iran and Russia that seem to have a bitcoin strategy. I think that BRICS figured out that having a single currency on a federated network was a psyop like the euro. And so they're not doing it. All the central banks are accumulating gold. We're getting the stablecoin standards being built out in America, we're getting the CBDC network being built out in uae, China, Thailand, Saudi Arabia, Hong Kong, and then we got the digital euro that's going to be part of the European surveillance state. So all of that breaks swift. It creates programmable freezable money that allows for sanctions. You've got the clunkiness of these gold oil physical shipments with the demonstration of the straight of Hormuz and the limitations of shipments, in the end you're only left with one thing which is Bitcoin and self custody. And so moving into a multipolar world and a one world government control grid, which is where I think we're going, those two tracks. I think bitcoin helps in the multipolar settlement layers, digital rails, coinjoins and to defang western banking power, legacy power interests. And then you have the self sovereign self custody great escape from the global control grid which will be run by stablecoins and various other centralized Wall street custodian wrappers. And so they're now taking all of
- [16:26]
A
the
- [16:28]
B
securities and financialization and they're tokenizing the whole thing and they're trying to turn everything into a security, whether it be water, whether it be energy and you're going to be competing with AI for it. So you'll either be heating your house or AI will be using that energy. You'll either be drinking water or AI will be consuming that water. And they're going to create tokenized markets out of the whole thing. And bitcoin is the resistance against that. And so now everyone needs to learn that skill if you want to remain sovereign. Because nothing in crypto helped Iran stay sovereignty, but bitcoin did.
- [17:08]
A
I mean I look around at, since Iran's asserted its authority over the Strait of Hormuz, there's been talk about other waterways around the world with nearby countries looking to, you know, equally assert their authority. So but we've already got a situation like in Panama, the Panama Canal, for example, do you think they could accept bitcoin? Would they accept Bitcoin, the canals?
- [17:36]
B
I think Panama is a very interesting story in itself. Very similar to Iran, you know, a victim of economic hitmen, assassinations, all sorts of stuff, then privacy, Panama Papers like so much interesting history there, but they've seemed to be making a distinction in this post US dominated naval world. They seem to be making a distinction between international waters and canals. And so they always use the canal as like a privatized carve out to say that you can charge the toll. At the moment we're getting a lot of legal language negotiations in the Memorandum of understanding. I think they wanted to call it an environmental fee. Yeah, that's right, an environment fee, a service charge, insurance. The reason is because this is now a legal argument, because if Iran is able to charge a fee, the legal language around that fee has an impact on international law. And whatever Iran does will be the model for many other countries. Then you bring in Malaysia, then you bring in Singapore, then you bring in all the other strategic choke points. Iran may just create the model with Bitcoin around how to solve these settlement layers in a world where there's no longer freedom of navigation.
- [19:04]
A
It's really the perfect use case, isn't it? Sovereign, adversarial, permissionless, global, borderless.
- [19:14]
B
And that applies at the country level, the corporate level and the individual level. It's going to be a really interesting one to watch. And it doesn't matter if it doesn't happen. Bitcoin was designed to just adapt to whatever happened. And so just like you get this centralizing forces in mining between private public companies, a bunch of it goes originally loads of it was in China, then it was in Texas, then we have all these public companies that are loaded up with debt, but in their desire to maximize returns they've decided that the energy is best used and the data centers are best used with AI. And so the market adjusts to that mechanism. We've got the difficulty, rate adjusts, there's a movement towards home mining as a result of some of the tensions that are happening between developer implementations and node implementations. And so this is driving us to some of that more decentralized side. And if it turns out that governments don't adopt Bitcoin in order to have sovereign in a multipolar world, then great, and it will adjust to that reality. And that is why the Bitcoin story is a never ending story that takes us to the depths of technology, geopolitics and macro. Because the simplicity of an Individual being able to exert sovereignty by owning their own asset, sending it to anyone that's willing to accept it voluntarily, and having no control grid over its supply is still the most disruptive thing to the fix power.
- [20:57]
A
Do you think this current bear market was kicked off by potentially Iran selling its Bitcoin just as the sort of the war drums were starting to beat louder and louder. We saw that massive single day sell off in October, right at the peak. And then ever since then it's just been a gradual sell off until the recent sort of mini rally in the bare market.
- [21:20]
B
Yeah, and I think these are all FIC operations. So you know, we had the coordinated takeover of much of the infrastructure with operation 2.2.0. We had the rise of the Bitcoin industrial complex to get custody derivatives, Bitcoin back loans, treasury companies, co op developers, influencers, push media companies into treasury companies, get some of the Bitcoin backed loan service integrated with Cantor Fitzgerald and Tether and all of that. The operation to get as much Bitcoin in custody is why we're getting these weaker prices. And I think if I were to speculate that's a complex that is being built by Cantors, by strategy and Jane street and blackrock and many of the other players or the carve out departments of Merrill lynch and Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. I think there is a coordinated Strategy to use ETFs and debt instruments to control the short term price of Bitcoin just like they did with gold.
- [22:48]
A
When I look at the evidence for what's happening right now, where is the evidence that this is an attack on Bitcoin from the financial industrial complex and not just a regular bear market?
- [23:00]
B
I couldn't point to the evidence. All I could say is, is they built every instrument that they build for every single new commodity. And the FIC have been doing this for years, for decades. And this is a modus apparandi, you know. And they've built all the instruments.
- [23:23]
A
So two of those instruments, I would say two of the biggest, most influential instruments are the ATFs and then what we're seeing now with the Bitcoin treasury companies. So the ETFs have actually been the biggest hodlers. So the outflows from the ETFs have been minimal. And then on the Bitcoin treasury side you've got microstrategy or strategy. Michael Saylor's company, clearly the largest Bitcoin treasury company. If anything they're accelerating their purchases of Bitcoin through their preferred shared issuance stretch on One hand we're seeing fairly minimal outflows, on the other hand we're seeing an acceleration of buying. So if these two major instruments of the financial industrial complex aren't really doing anything to affect the price, where is the attack coming from?
- [24:17]
B
Yeah, that's why they built the derivative complex and that's why they built Stretch and all these vehicles for taking the options market volatility, all the different instruments that they charge fees from. And the ETF has the whole appointed representative relationship and the difference between the spot and the issuance of the shares that are held at Coinbase that has a suite of products that do we really know what Bitcoin is allocated and what Bitcoin is unallocated? And that's been the model that is exactly how the gold markets work, the silver markets work. All the products that they have, they have significant more paper contracts than they do the underlying asset. The evidence to me is just build the products, follow the model that they've always followed and if they're buying while the price is slowly going down over an extended period of time, where the media is being weaponized, then that's just consistent with every market that they engage in. They won't be able to control the long term price. But what they will try and do is patiently get you to sell your Bitcoin, maybe pump it into the AI bubble and have higher returns elsewhere, low returns in Bitcoin so that they can centralize as much of it as possible. And if you think about the strategy business model it is, we will issue as many securities as FIC and retail will buy to get as much Bitcoin in our vehicle as possible. And if they could get 21 million Bitcoin in strategy, they would. If the BlackRock could get 21 million Bitcoin in their ETF, they would. And then they would want to keep all the bitcoin and issue a bitcoin backed loan and they'd want to try and create treasury companies that co opt a developer like Adam Back, someone that has a large bitcoin wallet and a bitcoin backed loaned company like Jack Mallers, somebody that has bitcoin conferences, Bitcoin VC funds like David Bailey and everyone else, and I'm sure everyone else got the call that I got in order to try and co opt as much of the ecosystem by saying that why don't you get a bunch of bitcoin in a tax efficient wrapper that we manage and then that we can then issue Bitcoin backed loans against and we'll get you a bunch of tether and stablecoins and fiat currency and we'll build the whole fractional reserve bitcoin market around it and we'll end up with all the bitcoin and you end up with all the paper contracts. And so that's their strategy. And our job is to do what Iran did, keep the bitcoin in self custody, don't take the paper contract, spend it in our own circular economies to anyone who wants to receive that bitcoin and don't allow them to change the paper, you know, to change the money supply. Because spot Bitcoin will only ever have 21 million. But there's going to be a lot. I'm sure there's already 28 million paper contracts of bitcoin that they're building up to.
- [27:40]
A
I mean, I'm interested in your position that these preferred shares stretch, for example, strategy stretch could be an attack vector by Wall street onto Bitcoin. Because I see it the other way around. I see it as an attack vector on Wall street to suck capital out and pour it into bitcoin. Why do you see it the way
- [28:00]
B
you do Wall Street's model? You can look at the central banks and you can look at BlackRock to see their model. Their model is to create IOU securities so that they can end up with the actual asset on their balance sheet. That's the model strategy is an IOU security to end up with the bitcoin in Coinbase. And Coinbase is a vehicle for the FIC now it's public company.
- [28:29]
A
Coinbase is only one of their custodians though.
- [28:32]
B
Okay. Yeah. So multiple custodians where it's under their control so that then it can be used in the lending market in order to create more bitcoin than there is in custody. That's their game, that's what they've always done. And so they want you to own the IOU so that they own the actual underlying asset. And then they, you know, BlackRock right now is creating tokenized everything. But then if you look at their actual balance sheet is real estate, it's gold, it's commodities. Because they don't want the paper, they want the actual asset, but they want you to buy the paper.
- [29:07]
A
So it wouldn't be in the interests of strategy to allow their custodian to do that. And surely it would be, you know, within their contractual arrangements for custodianship of their assets that their bitcoin could not be lent out, rehypothecated and the like.
- [29:23]
B
Yeah. So that's one part of it. The other part of it is that they've monetizing volatility. And monetizing volatility means you create a suite of products that somebody like Jane street, who is there to monetize all of that volatility and all of those arbitrage and play prices, that's what they do. They do it for all assets. Why aren't they going to do it for bitcoin?
- [29:49]
A
Yeah, fair enough. I still view them as not as an alternative to bitcoin. And I don't think most bitcoiners view it as an alternative to bitcoin either. Even those who are investing in them. Yeah. I still think they're an attack on Treadfi and Wall street rather than an attack on bitcoin. So I'm interested in
- [30:11]
B
they give the FIC all the tools they need to manipulate the short term price of bitcoin through the complex that they built. And remember, a complex is not one institution. It's a series of products where they can obfuscate the rules between what needs to be allocated and fully backed, between what is just a paper that doesn't need to be fully allocated and backed. And so it's in the complex. And tether's a part of it, Kanta's a part of it, BlackRock's a part of it. And strategy has been the most useful vehicle to centralize as much bitcoin as possible and put a bunch of volatility products around it that can be utilized in order to manipulate the price of bitcoin.
- [31:00]
A
So a lot of the discussion around risk for bitcoin treasury companies has been around their financial models. For example, some of the assumptions baked into Bitcoin's growth and their rising obligations to pay out dividends and the like. But you seem to hold the view that actually it's more about the operational risks of custodianship and the potential to create paper Bitcoin or the image and the perception that there's an existence of an asset that's actually been taken away.
- [31:33]
B
Yes. The derivative complex that they build around it and you've created the Rails and the foundation for all the different products that the hedge funds layer on top. And that's what strategy is. I think people are focusing on the wrong thing. They're looking at is strategy a company that could go bankrupt and steal all the bitcoin or something like that and end up in a chapter 11. The answer is no. Why would they want to kill strategy? Strategy is their tool. It's their Strategy, it's the fixed strategy. Why would they want to kill one of the vital nodes in their derivative complex? And it's a foundational node in that complex and all the products that they keep building on top add a new mechanism for extracting fees, centralizing as much Bitcoin as possible and extracting value. That may end up people not owning Bitcoin and them owning as much Bitcoin. I don't know why they'd want to kill that. They'd want that to exist. So in itself it has to be a low risk product so they can build on top of it and build around it.
- [32:49]
A
I'm fascinated to see how that plays out because there are a lot of conflicting opinions on that. There's a lot of speculation. And so like I, I see a lot of conviction on the part of Saylor and I posted about that earlier. I think they've, they've unlocked something that we have not yet seen in the entire life of bitcoin and that is huge demand to finance bitcoin purchases even in a bear market, where previously we've seen, you know, Saylor was kind of handicapped in last bear market where the demand for their convertible bonds pretty much capped out whether or not they saturated the market or, you know, it was a bear market, so no one was really interested in, in taking up the convertible bonds in a bear market and their interest in bitcoin was diminished. But what we're now seeing is in the depths of a bear market, they are buying every other week. It's a billion, billion and a half, sometimes $2 billion worth of Bitcoin through the financing of their preferred share issuance. That's demonstrating a level of demand that was typical of, you know, peak bull market mania. And so it looks to me like they've cracked open the damn wall and money is just going to pour into bitcoin even faster as the price rises.
- [34:10]
B
So there's a couple of things there. So firstly is, is it sucking up a lot of bitcoin? Yes. Does that create buy volume? Yes. Does that have impact on price dynamics? Yes. But it also gives more purchasing power to the bitcoin derivative complex. So the bigger that gets, the more, the more power they have to manipulate prices with their, with their suite of products around it. And he's just like Trump. He gets to have a narrative for who he's talking to and an action for who he works for. And who does he work for? His shareholders, his bondholders, his preference holders. And yeah, a bunch of those are retail, but it's the institutions that matter. And that's the Jane Streets and the largest institutions in fico. And so that's the boss.
- [35:04]
A
Is there any way that a listed Bitcoin treasury company cannot be an attack vector on Bitcoin?
- [35:10]
B
I think it depends what game you're playing. If you're in the game of number goes up, only then you'd embrace it. Bitcoin will succeed no matter what at this stage. Right. But there are attack vectors and the attack vector is centralization versus decentralization in every layer, whether that's nodes mining ownership and every layer. And so this is not something that concerns me in terms of the long term viability of Bitcoin, but it is an attack vector. To centralize there has to be a community of people. Just like there has to be a community of people that are focusing on quantum or a community of people that are focusing on more nodes, or a community of people that are focusing on more decentralized mining. There needs to be a community of people that are focused on. Let's make sure that the ratio of centralized Bitcoin to self custody Bitcoin remains at a healthy pace.
- [36:11]
A
I was reading a discussion online precisely about this and the concern that some people have about Saylor and his company owning too much Bitcoin as a percentage of the distribution, the circulating distribution, and Mr. Hodle who seems to have been in every single argument since about 2011. It's amazing how many old threads that he's embedded into it said, well I bought Bitcoin back when Satoshi had a million and was a far greater percentage of the circulating distribution. And that wasn't a problem. So why should this be a problem now?
- [36:50]
B
Yeah, I think the answer is in there has to be like decentralization is the game here, the ideal.
- [36:59]
A
It's the aspiration. Right. Because it's a core virtue and value, sorry, core property, which is a virtue within Bitcoin is decentralization.
- [37:08]
B
Yes. And so strategy is a centralizing attack vector that gives more power to the very same people that we were trying to disrupt and take more power away from. And so the self custody people are opting out, are boycotting, are giving less power to fic and everyone else is giving more power to fic. And I want to make sure or if I'm on this earth to talk about one thing, I'm not going to change that. I'm irrelevant. There's nothing that I could say that's going to change what FIC are going to do. What I can do is try and Shape individual behavior so that they end up more sovereign. And there's a huge vantage of that. We take the best shot we have ever, ever had, exiting from the FIC control grid and making that as a block more influential, just as Iran made themselves more influential in negotiating with fico. At some point you either become free or you become subordinate. And what strategy and everything represents is subordination, control grids, centralization, fic, more power. What Bitcoin represents is sovereign freedom, resistance, leverage, negotiation freedom. And if that gets smaller and smaller and smaller, then there's going to be more and more people in the control grid. And my aspiration and my goal is to try and be a bigger force to negotiate against fic. Because if FIC could they just take all the bitcoin and control this whole thing?
- [38:56]
A
It's interesting because Bitcoin serves a particular role in financial sovereignty. It's the best tool for financial sovereignty. There's nothing that comes close to financial sovereignty sovereignty. But financial sovereignty is not the only financial need either. Some people require a stream of income, for example. And so if someone, let's, let's put age aside. But if someone needs both, isn't there a legitimate way, isn't there a legitimate place for a Bitcoin treasury company's preferred shares in their portfolio?
- [39:33]
B
Yeah, this is not me placing a judgment because I understand the world. The world wants you to centralize. They want you to be in control and they make it really a lot easier for you to do that by design. You know, the reason they want you owning it in a pension wrapper is because BlackRock wants to charge you fees on it and you get tax incentives for that. And the reason that they want to create securities is to entice you through yield and various other things into giving them or them controlling the bitcoin in the end at the underlying of it. So I don't judge people because people need to focus on their own micro world and you need to get the balance right between growth and income and how you manage your world. And some people are trying to escape debt subordination and they need to lever up. Others are retiring and they just want less stress. And others are in countries where they trust their government and they're fic. So there's a complete spectrum of needs. One way of changing the system is to play within the system as it is, extract as much as you can, which is what I think most people think strategy is doing, and then be the person that can actually influence lobbies, can actually make a difference because they're incredibly wealthy and they can speak out against the system. If you think about the world kind of puts people into two broad categories. There's a bunch of really subordinated people that are almost like in a debt slave world that don't have much money and they've got freedom of speech and they can talk about anything. They could say hey, Jeffrey Epstein this but no one cares because they don't have power, they don't lobby, they don't have their money, their vote doesn't matter. They think it matters, but the vote is with the money. Then you've got people that are co opted into the system. Michael Saylor is an example. His fiduciary duty to his shareholders means that structurally he has to prioritize them and say whatever he needs to say within the confines of regulations to maximize the return for his shareholders. That's structural. You're not going to change that. That's a subordination vehicle. A public company where the board have to act in a governance framework and they can't go off on their own path in order to break that cycle. But the ones that have sovereign businesses with no debt dependency, with no vote, no vc, no shareholder that can tell them what to do and they're wealthy, those are the ones that can change the world. There's not many of those. The system doesn't like those. That's why the system didn't like bitcoiners because we created a class of billionaires that had no subordination and their wealth in self custody and they took them out and they tried to co opt them into treasury companies and they did everything they could to co opt them because they don't like those people. And so that is where I want people to be because that's where we as a community make change. That's how we take on fic. And I'm under no delusion that anything I'm going to do is going to actually change the system. And so I want to be in my exit. But if more and more people would join this exit, then we're the ones that can actually take the system down. But they don't want you to. They'd rather you have strategy.
- [43:10]
A
I agree. There's still no second best bitcoin. There's no substitute for bitcoin for financial sovereignty. I think a lot of people looking at the price chart right now, someone put up an analysis of bitcoin sentiment on Twitter, on the timeline, taking content posted and they're saying bitcoiners right now have never been angrier. On the timeline. And I'd, I dispute that, to be honest. But there seems to be a lot of, a lot of people who are kind of jaded and we didn't really get a blow off top. We didn't get that level of excitement and we're suddenly back down to a level that was pretty, we're pretty much at the same place. Tread water for five years. Right. I haven't really gone anywhere.
- [44:03]
B
Yeah.
- [44:04]
A
And so people are getting frustrated as a result of that. They're expecting, you know, the price to be around 140, 150 to be floating around that. But here we are going into, we're well and truly into another bare market speculation whether or not we've reached a bottom. I think we have, I think there's upside from here. How do you see it?
- [44:27]
B
Yeah. So there's two ways to tackle this. Right. One way is that you decide, I'm going to always try and put my capital in the best place it should be all right. And so if you were in bitcoin and you missed the AI trade, you lost a lot of money. A lot of, a lot of money. But the other way to see that is that you have a long term belief around the need for bitcoin and what it does in the future and you accumulate into weakness. And so if you've been buying at these cheaper prices for the last five years, well, we had the spike or whatever. But if you've been dollar cost averaging and if you really are valuing your wealth in bitcoin rather than valuing your wealth in dollars, then you want the bitcoin price to be as low as possible for as long as possible, knowing what you think the end game is, which gets you more bitcoin. And so if you're valuing your wealth in dollars, you're going to be pissed right now. And you probably didn't get the trade right because you know, picking, picking where to be in every moment is the trading game. And bitcoin gave you the simplicity of, you know, value my wealth in bitcoin, accumulate as much bitcoin as possible. So if you're, if your accumulation into weak markets and your goal is in the next 10 years, I want a life changing amount of bitcoin, then this is great. This is the best thing that can ever happen. But if your goal is to always be in the highest performing fiat value asset, then you've made the worst decision.
- [46:03]
A
Yeah, there is, there is another thing, is that some people are at the point where, yeah, they do want to cash out some bitcoin and buy a house, some bitcoin and maybe put. Just put a deposit on a house, some bitcoin and upgrade their lifestyle for their family as well. And, you know, perhaps they would have been looking to do a little if, if they'd been in it for a while, they might have been looking to do that at the peak of every subsequent cycle, for example, rather than constantly trying to maximize the allocation of your capital at any particular point. And I think most of us are kind of like that. Yeah, I do want to sell some bitcoin occasionally and upgrade life or buy a house or an apartment or look after some people every now and then. Otherwise, what's the point of wealth anyway, Right?
- [46:57]
B
Absolutely. You know, what are we here for other than to try and circulate what we achieve in order to do things that are more fulfilling? That's what life's about. And I believe there is an energy in money. And if you allocate, if you're using your bitcoin to make the world a better place, I think it comes back with an energy, you know, that's just a philosophical belief around what you do with your money. So I always try and, you know, circulate some bitcoin with that in mind as a, as a bucket. But that's a privilege as well, because I was in a position one time where if the price of bitcoin went down, I'm broke. You know what I mean? So I know what it's like to be in both positions. And reality kicks in. And Wall street knows it, FIC knows it. FIC knows that the solution to that is that they can out invest you because they got a longer term horizon, or they can say, give it to me and I'll give you a loan against it. And I'm not judging those. But you just need to know that you are pushing yourself into the spectrum of subordination as you do that in exchange for the trade off of what I value in life more. And that's the friction of life. You know what I mean? There's no ideal here. There's a spectrum of opportunities, there's a spectrum of decisions. And I will give some subordination in order to borrow against my bitcoin, knowing that I'm empowering FICO and I'm decreasing my sovereign power. And perhaps I can play the game like Michael Saylor played, you know, in order to turn my public company into an incredibly valuable public company. And that's the game we all have to play. And so I Don't judge that. And if you get the pricing wrong, if you're making short term decisions on a longer term asset, then sadly you're subjected to price decision making.
- [49:03]
A
Sure.
- [49:03]
B
And that will either go wrong or right.
- [49:05]
A
So do you have a read on what's happening to the bitcoin price right now with respect to, I guess, you know, year end target, but also like how do you see the cycles? Do you see last year as a conclusion of another cycle or are they over for you? And do you have a projection for like what happens from here on in in terms of trend?
- [49:26]
B
I've always stayed away from it the in my whole bitcoin journey but I'd look at, I, I, I, I don't think we're decoupled from geopolitics and macro in the end. And so at the moment I think a lot of bitcoin liquidity is being sucked out for the AI trade. I think we're in an AI bubble. That doesn't mean that I don't think AI is going to change everything and, and the entire world, because it is. But so did the Internet. But there was still a bubble. And I think there is a utility need for bitcoin in the multipolar world and an escape from the control grid. But in the meantime I think they're pumping the stock markets like crazy. And for as long as that AI trade is outperforming Bitcoin, we may get just what we got. Weakness, an environment that makes people want to capitulate further and further. Depression. And so the only solution to that is to value your wealth in Bitcoin and use it to accumulate Bitcoin and have a longer term strategy. But if you're still valuing wealth in dollars and you've got some short term goals, then sadly you're in the capital allocation game. And you might want to think is Bitcoin the right place to be right now for a percentage of it? And it doesn't have to be everything but if I were to try and speculate, I think we might be in that for the rest of the year. I think you'll get an opportunity to buy cheaper bitcoin.
- [50:57]
A
Oh really? Yeah. Interesting. I'm thinking along the lines of the resolution of the war on Iran. That resolution I think will serve as a kind of tailwind as well as the I think AI IPOs are going to be good for markets in general.
- [51:15]
B
Yeah, but we've got that very inconvenient question to answer. Why has AI done so well and bitcoin didn't go up with it because it was following AI before it was a tech stock effectively, but now it's not. So what is it?
- [51:31]
A
It's hard to tell. And that's why I raised a question earlier in previous part about whether or not it was Iran that was selling in preparation for the war.
- [51:44]
B
Maybe. Yeah, I mean, Iran does have a whole payment infrastructure integrated into China's system and UAE system. So there are, there are rails. But maybe.
- [51:55]
A
Well, if you, if you can hear the war drums beating and you're thinking bitcoin's up, we can liquidate at a fairly good price right now in preparation for, you know, whatever purchases that they need needed to make.
- [52:11]
B
And Israel and US did target the largest exchange in Iran and try and hack it and steal the assets. So they did, they did try and choke the bitcoin exchange.
- [52:24]
A
We, we spoke briefly about AI and, and bitcoin mining. It seems that AI is now well and truly competing with energy and energy infrastructure with bitcoin mining. And a lot of the bitcoin miners have, I wouldn't even say they're pivoted into AI. They pivoted away from bitcoin. I think a lot of them don't really want to come out and say it straight off. So that's how we do both. We're date, we're data processing, we do energy infrastructure, but basically they're now AI processing centers, data centers. So like, what does that mean for Bitcoin's security and bitcoin mining?
- [53:09]
B
It's the difference between the private infrastructure versus the public infrastructure in terms of a vehicle. So as a public company, you have a fiduciary duty to your shareholders to maximize returns. And utilizing your data centers for AI and using the, well, utilizing it is more profitable at the moment. And using the narrative is more profitable for your share price because it's a narrative. We're in bubble territory as well. And so if you get the double whammy of share price, access to capital plus a more profitable business, you're going to, as a fiduciary, you have to make that switch in the private side. You don't necessarily have to do that. And so you're going to get, you're going to be able to utilize your equipment. You're going to have a difficulty rate adjustment. It moves away from fit control to private control. So to me, it's a better thing to have less. It's kind of like a cleansing force and it will adjust and it will bound and then AI will get its crash and then narrative change and you move over to the next narrative. AI is the foundation of the control grid and bitcoin is the foundation of the sovereign grid. And I think those are the two most important stories of our lifetime. And I don't think any of us know what the world's going to look like in 10 years. But I do know that AI is something I need to follow and bitcoin in self custody is something I need to use to protect myself.
- [54:43]
A
You mentioned about the move towards something that looks like a one world government. And when you have a look at the emerging forces, the emerging sovereign powers who are, I guess they seem more, they're not really aligned with bitcoin, but they're closer to bitcoin than the existing powers like Europe and, and the United States. So what role does bitcoin play in that kind of situation?
- [55:15]
B
Yeah, so the two centralizing powers of the world are FIC and China. They're creating the one world government. FIC and China, you know, with their control over tick, then you have countries that want to get their own data centers and be sovereign. And that's the bitcoin story. So for them, they, they need, you know, they need their mechanism of fitting into the two controlling powers of the one world government. And so that's their story. And so bitcoin helps them. Like Iran, like El Salvador. El Salvador is a resistance against IMF with bitcoin. Iran is a resistance against sanctions with bitcoin. Those are our two stories that we have. UAE is utilizing bitcoin in order to attract capital in a multipolar world. And what are US and China doing? CBDCs and stablecoins. Really? Will we get that bitcoin strategic reserve in America? I doubt it. Will we get the ability to try and confiscate as much bitcoin as possible in America? Yes, they already are doing it. And who is battling over those confiscations of bitcoin? China and America.
- [56:32]
A
Why not just buy? Why confiscate? Because of course, you know, America's got property. Property. Right. Protections for its citizens and, and corporations as well. So that seems to me like a more troublesome route to take than just buying it outright.
- [56:48]
B
When the FIC want to kill the dollar, then they'll do that. They'll buy bitcoin because you're going short treasuries in order to buy bitcoin. You're printing money to buy bitcoin. If China is ready to put a blow onto the Western empire, they'll engineer a derivative collapse of the commodities market. They'll use their cheaper AI in order to crash the stock market. They'll sell their Treasuries in order to collapse the bond market and they'll print some money to buy Bitcoin because they're not world reserve currency and they don't want to be world reserve currency because they want capital controls. And so the moment that America start and China start buying Bitcoin, then, then you know that that's the end of the world reserve currency. So there is a moment when the Fed and the bank for International Settlement and PBOC is ready to do that, but we're not there yet. They're using. The banks are still using Treasuries as collateral. And so bitcoins kind of how you mark a moment when you're ready to change the order. You could use Bitcoin for it.
- [58:06]
A
Do you think that there will be a watershed moment when the world just suddenly starts moving towards bitcoin, or is it just going to be a gradual thing?
- [58:17]
B
I think it's gradual. I think they're doing a silent depression. I think they're doing a managed transition and when things go wrong, they engineer collapses. So you get a little bit of a mix of both. And I don't pretend to know which one they're going to do in every moment. I think it's slow and steady and not as dramatical as people would like it to be. We don't need a bitcoin standard for bitcoin to succeed. I'd rather not have a bitcoin standard. I'd rather have loads of people just owning bitcoin than a bunch of governments and companies centralizing as much Bitcoin as possible. I'd much rather that I'm irrelevant. What's going to happen is either way is the same story.
- [59:00]
A
Yeah. I also don't believe fiat will disappear. I don't. So long as we have functioning states, we will have functioning fiat currencies.
- [59:11]
B
Yeah, I debated Jeff Booth on this one. He thinks bitcoin kills everything. We end up in a utopia and fiat currency fails.
- [59:18]
A
Oh, okay. That's interesting because I'm going to interview him for the first time in Prague. So we're gonna have a really good discussion.
- [59:25]
B
Yeah, yeah.
- [59:26]
A
I mean, at least he's a. He's a thoughtful guy. This is what I like about having people that I don't necessarily agree with on everything is that you can have some really interesting discussions fleshing out the disagreements, you know, respectfully, of course, and. And you never know, might learn something
- [59:41]
B
no, you'll feel a lot better after speaking to Jeff.
- [59:44]
A
He's an optimist, right?
- [59:46]
B
Oh, he's an optimist.
- [59:47]
A
Yeah. Yeah.
- [59:48]
B
You know, and I'm. I lived in that world. I remember being an optimist. And you kind of have to play that role at one point in your life. But then I hit a point where I was like, yeah, I want to figure out how the world really works now.
- [60:02]
A
Yeah.
- [60:03]
B
And then I'm like, okay, now I understand how the game works because I've been beaten in politics, in business, in not for profit, in investing, in, you know, 25 years of that. You see how all these subordination networks and operations work.
- [60:20]
A
It's interesting we've come across this topic now because I heard Elon, he said a few times, Elon Musk, that in the long term, it pays off much more to be an optimist than a pessimist. Right. And I wonder actually whether it depends on the different stages of your life that you're at or different stages of wealth creation as well. So if you're a builder, you have to be an optimist. You can't be a pessimist and a builder. But once you've created a certain amount of wealth, I'm talking about as a private individual, not as a public company CEO like Elon Musk is, once you've made wealth, you've got to protect the wealth because wealthy wealth is easier lost than it's made. Right. Making wealth is much harder than losing it.
- [61:07]
B
Yeah.
- [61:07]
A
And I wonder whether or not it just, you know, that pendulum swings towards becoming more conservative and aware and focused of on risks once you've made a certain level of wealth.
- [61:20]
B
I think there's something to be said that like, I mean, my journey, you know, I worked in investment banking, then I went self employed and, you know, started working on banking reform and consulting and contracts. Then I built a business which was around, you know, it was ironically, the business I didn't realize I was building at the time, but it became the BlackRock of Bitcoin companies because we. That's how I know about all these voting rights, because I ended up shareholder and voting rights in 100 different Bitcoin companies.
- [61:51]
A
It's the bank to the future there.
- [61:53]
B
Yeah, yeah. And then we ended up selling that to Coinbase. So are they still operating that? And that's the interesting. Yes, they're operating that and BlackRock's using it for the tokenize everything joint venture with Coinbase. So life works in very mysterious ways. The company we Built ended up being repackaged into something that Coinbase used that ended up being used by Securitizen, which was one of the companies I invested in that's doing all the tokenized bonds for BlackRock and the tokenize everything with Coinbase was the broker that we created. So it's very interesting. But then you become an investor and when you're an investor, I'd say when I was an entrepreneur, you have to have a deluded belief around what you can achieve. And when you're an investor, you get screwed over by everything and you need to be way more realistic around all the shit that people are pitching you. And so that optimism to skepticism was a journey from owning a business, selling a business, to then becoming an investor. I'd say in my life. I also think there's an age element to it. Maybe there's a youthful deluded ignorance that's needed to succeed at a younger age. And as you get older, you have lots of life experiences that make you a bit more, a bit more skeptical.
- [63:17]
A
Humiliation and loss.
- [63:19]
B
But I do struggle with this philosophical question because I've done the whole, you know, red pill, black pill, white pill type of thing. But once you know the difference in results of the different pills. I've hit upon a stage in life where I've said I only care about what I believe to be true, which may not be true, but what I believe to be true is all I care about. And I've hit a stage. And Bitcoin gives you a bit an element of FE money, you know, that was the whole thing. But I've hit the stage where I don't care about popularity. I only really care about being accurate in my analysis. And sometimes being accurate is very unpopular. Even in analyzing Iran, everyone hates you because my analysis is kind of very nuanced and everyone thinks that you're, oh, you're a Zionist or no, you're an Iran terrorist. Every type of label gets put on you when you're saying no. It's very nuanced. Two things can be true.
- [64:24]
A
I feel that way in politics. Some people, people accuse me of being a socialist communist and other people accuse me of being a right wing fascist. And I'm not. And I'm not a centrist either.
- [64:33]
B
Yeah.
- [64:33]
A
So like I just have different opinions on different topics.
- [64:37]
B
Yeah. And so, yeah, I've, I've kind of hit this stage right now where maybe just being positive and ignoring all the crimes against humanity that I've unearthed, there's a better way of producing output.
- [64:51]
A
Well, maybe for your mental health, anyway.
- [64:53]
B
But it doesn't feel right. And when I wanted to figure out what's creating wars and how this thing will happen, it's really dark. It's incredibly dark. But I don't feel like I have. I've been in the world where I ignored the truth and I ended up preserving systems that I think are fundamentally evil. And then once I understood the truth, I understood the rules as I understood them. And then I was able to play the game in a better way, but I had to accept the evil that I was a cog in the wheel of. And once I understood the rules, I was able to say, well, you know, I've got an iPhone. I know what happens in Congo in order to produce that iPhone, But I still need an iPhone to be productive. I still need to use AI. I know I'm building my social credit score, but I can't be unproductive. And so once you have the truth, there's a bit of a liberation in the spectrum of decision making. And then it comes to a bit of, I think, a philosophical question, which is, I think every day I'm thrown decisions, and I've got a better analysis to say, is that good and is that bad? And the further I can get to making more good decisions and more bad decisions in terms of an understanding of what makes the world a better place and what good and bad is. I found that the truthfulness of sometimes not being an optimist, actually just seeing how bad that actually is, has led me to what looks like an initial bad decision, but then paid off many times over in terms of some spiritual energy that took me in a different direction. You know, I can look back at every decision, every major decision I've made where I turned down what looked like a great opportunity or an opportunity didn't surface. Turned out that was a key defining moment of a network and path that I didn't really want to go down. And I can only see it a few years later.
- [66:57]
A
Interesting. Just thinking about Bitcoin relative to AI now, the most valuable company in the world at the moment is Nvidia. 4 or 5 trillion.
- [67:07]
B
Yeah, it hits 6 trillion its peak, but it's around about 5 trillion.
- [67:10]
A
5 trillion. So Bitcoin is just under 1.5 trillion. That seems to me like we're falling behind. And I feel like bitcoin should be the equal at the least, and possibly two or three times the most valuable company in the world. Especially if we're thinking gold is an analog for bitcoin in terms of Market cap. It feels like we're so far behind. It really does feel like we should be in the mid-1100s and we're down to 73,000 right now.
- [67:46]
B
Yes. But I think as a miracle we're here. It's an absolute miracle that we're here even having this conversation. When I think back to that first bitcoin conference when there was like 50 of us in a room and the weirdest but most interesting people I've ever met, and I used to have meetings in crack dens and squats in old street to meet developers that were working in bitcoin, that were excited about buying drugs with bitcoin. That's where we started.
- [68:23]
A
Wow.
- [68:23]
B
And now we've got the biggest powers in the world, like the Chinese Communist Party, like the Trump administration, global south El Salvador players, sanctioned countries like Iran, you know, oil OPEC producers like UAE discussing or, you know, saying how bitcoin might be a part of this equation. That's unbelievable. And that was what, so 2011, we're in 26. That was 15 years. How you go from a few people in a crackdown to the biggest drug dealer in the world or the biggest countries in the world, the biggest power structures in the world. BlackRock, you know, say I talk about all these things, but now the fact that we even had this debate today about these topics is unbelievable and far superseded any expectation I could ever imagine is possible. And now if we're deciding between the market cap of bitcoin versus the market cap of gold and Saudi Aramco and Nvidia, the biggest trends in the world, if nothing changes from here, I'm happy. But I think we've got a lot further to go. I think we've got a lot further to go. And it's cyclical.
- [69:54]
A
How far do you think we've got to go? Because a lot of people use the gold market cap as a baseline and I think that would be a good starting point. I think once bitcoin gets to one third of gold at some point, I just think that's. That's hugely significant.
- [70:13]
B
Yeah. If you take the top 30 assets in the world, bitcoin's in there, in the top 30. And that's including the Chinese yuan, the US dollar, gold as a market cap, silver, Saudi Aramo, Nvidia. Every asset that we go further is a new story of why did we overtake silver? What's the story behind that? What's the story know, why did we become bigger than Amazon? Why did we become bigger than Google? Why did we become bigger than the Brazilian currency? Why did we become bigger than the Chinese yuan? Why did we become bigger than the dollar? And every. Everyone's a story. So I think it's. I think people should always be looking at that relative asset. But We're a top 30 asset in the world. That's remarkable.
- [71:01]
A
Bitcoin was, I think, the top five or six at one point.
- [71:04]
B
Yeah. That's just market cap of shares, gold and bitcoin. But when you include, like, currencies, real estate, I mean, real estate and various other things.
- [71:14]
A
Yeah. Okay.
- [71:15]
B
I mean, the total market cap of real estate, I think, is like 187 trillion or something like that.
- [71:21]
A
And the bond market's a couple hundred trillion. Right? At least 2,300 trillion. Yeah.
- [71:26]
B
I'm not going to embarrass myself. I can't think of the number right now, but it's a big number.
- [71:30]
A
Yeah. I had Jesse in here. He's got that beautiful chart that profiles all the entire asset base of the globe. I think one box from memory was about 300 trillion bonds, fixed income, that sort of thing. And that's what I think the preferred shares of these Bitcoin treasury companies are trying to attack. I'm not sure what percentage of that they'll attract, but it does feel like that's an infinite amount of demand that's going to come through. If they're doing a billion a week in a bear market, I just. I think they will outpace ETFs in a bull market. Yeah. I mean, they're already outpacing ETFs. Yeah.
- [72:14]
B
All I ask is, in the future, are more people or less people going to need to earn their own money? I think more.
- [72:20]
A
More? Yeah.
- [72:20]
B
Are more people or less people going to want to spend money peer to peer? I think more. Are more people or less people going to need to protect themselves from central bank debasement? I think more y. And let's enjoy the journey.
- [72:33]
A
On that note, Simon Dixon, it's a pleasure as always.
- [72:36]
B
Thank you for having me.