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Simon Dixon Hard Talk
Japan, Bitcoin & the New Currency War | What Changed This Week? | SDHT LIVE (Part One)
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Five attacks for five managed transitions. The petrodollar, the euro dollar, the Japan carry trade, gold and bitcoin. And what happened as a result of the cold card hack on bitcoin and what happens tomorrow and what does everybody that owns some bitcoin need to know in terms of exactly what's going to happen tomorrow and what to look out for? That's what we've got to cover on this week's Simon Dixon Hard Talk Live. Hey, sovereign wealth builders. Simon Dixon here. And welcome to another episode of Simon Dixon Hard Talk Live. We're going to be going live this week where bitcoin and the global markets collided. We're going to be breaking down into two parts as always. In part one, we'll be going through Japan, we'll be going through bitcoin. Not only the hacks, but also what's happening with the forks this weekend and the new currency war, how it relates to the geopolitical environment, the Japan carry trade, the petro dollar, the euro dollar and everything that's happening in global markets. In fact, what changed this week? It was a really big week. In part two, we'll be heading over to my interview that I did and that was on from the American empire to the technocratic control grid. I went on a podcast with Daniel Estilin who has a Bigfoot Spanish audience, so there's some Spanish subtitles underneath as well. So it's great to get the message out there. But we were discussing the transition and really in part one we'll be discussing how the what happened this week is really managing that transition. So let's do a quick review of where we're at. Last week we covered the whole cold card exploit which has escalated. If anyone was impacted. There was a hardware wallet called ColdCard. It was unique to that environment and people have been questioning whether this was an inside job or whether there was state hacking or whether, as I believe, anything to do with FIC exploits but how it will be weaponized. So firstly, let me just put a message out there. If you hold funds on cold card, you should be moving your funds and you should be moving to a new secure environment. It was unique to the cold card wallet and the hacking is still continuing. We'll be giving an update, but I just wanted to put that out there. You need to do that immediately. And. But what were we discussing the week before that? Well, we were discussing and I launched a released a long blog around following the money between the BIP110 Bitcoin improvement proposal and why I'm supporting BIP110 and I went through the game theory and I gave a big explainer. So that was two weeks ago. So when you put those together you've got a big event happening this weekend. You had the cold cod exploit before that. And I'm now going to be discussing after we've done the geopolitical and macro side, how that actually fits into how it's being weaponized by nodes in the financial industrial complex, including people like Michael Sailor. And we'll be digging a little bit deeper into his company strategy. So this week, what's new? Well actually there are five transitions that I need to discuss this week. One is what happened with the petrodollar. Two is what's happening with the Euro dollar which is dollars created outside of the American system. The petrodollar is the demand for dollar being created through the pricing of oil, particularly with regards to Saudi Arabia in the Middle East. And thirdly the Japan carry trade. Real big movements this week but they all relate together. In fact they were all moving in sync around what we call the managed transition that we've been discussing a lot. The other operation of course is the, the movement to try and get people to take their Bitcoin out of self custody and put it in custody, whether it be through ibit, whether it be through Bitcoin, treasury companies, whether it be through any of those and, and also the central banks as always accumulating gold while the petrodollar, the Euro dollar and the Japan carry trade seems to be going through this managed transition which has always been my working theory that if you slowly unwind each of those trades and positions then you end up with a reset of the world order into multipolarity and therefore there are operations that need to happen at both the financial level, the technical level and the military level. The, the fic, the MICK and the tick in order to manage that transition and take us to a world of multipolarity. Anyway, so what happened in the market? Right, well let's have a little bit of an overview. So the most important matrix that we've always covered on Simon Dixon Hard Talk live is the 10 year US Treasury. Now remember what I've been previously saying, every time it gets above 4.5% you enter into danger Z we're now at 4.67%, that is 17 basis points above the danger territory. What about the 30 year bond which sets the mortgage rates? Sorry, the 10 year sets the mortgage rates but the 30 year bond is now at 5.24% throughout the whole Iran US war. Every time it got above 5%, we had a slight taco. Now we're starting to hit real, you know, real desperation territory in terms of the cost of refinancing the US debt as well as any mortgage owner that needs to refinance their debt as well as anybody else that's rolling over those debt as a result of these longer term rates. And at the same time, as we covered last week, the Fed is getting more and more hawkish, indicating that it's not willing to cut rates, which was the whole narrative around the Trump administration. And so during the Iran war it significantly strengthened $. Prior to that the dollar was weakening, but weakening in terms of the index that we follow, dxy, which is not a great index because that's the dollar relative to Swiss francs, to euros, to Japanese yen. But we started to see a weakening again. So it's now below the 100 mark. So it was down to about $96 prior to the war. Then it went up to a peak of about 100 and above and we're now slightly below that 100 mark. So $99.777, which is implying a, a trend or towards some kind of weakness as a result of this Japan carry trade and the events that we're seeing this week. In terms of West Texas WTI oil, it's 74 to 75 dollars. So it came up a bit more from its lows after the Memorandum Memorandum of Understanding was signed with Iran. And in terms of Brent, we're now up to 77 to 78, which is the North Sea oil mainly in the UK. Gold is kind of, you know, we had this peak of about 4, $600. We're now at 4375. So it's steady, it's flat. There is more and more accumulation by central banks and it is still the number one reserve asset of central banks above the value or the market cap of treasuries held by central banks. Bitcoin, despite what is happening that the fact that we're in the midst of a civil war that's going to be moved to its next stage on Saturday and we had the exploit of cold wallet through cold through, cold card, a specific wallet, it's remarkable that bitcoin really hasn't moved. In fact it's been going up slightly. We're at about $64.4K. And of course the market in fiscal dominance when you're rolling over the debt and you're dumping the debt on the American people and that's creating Inflation around the world that is leading to these stress situations where some foreign countries are selling bonds in order to purchase gold. In terms of central banks, you're getting these stresses in the yield goes up as more people sell bonds. But where does that money go? Well it goes towards inflation hedges. Bitcoin's been flat, gold's been flat, but the stock market is ripping because that's where the value is going to. As the stock market transitions to this AI concentrated technocratic control grid that we'll be covering in part two, the S P500 is near all time highs again at 7710. So they print the money, they then they then push it into, you know, government spending to boost the stock market. And whenever the yields on the bonds reach the point where too many foreigners are selling them, they need to do some intervention until eventually you manufacture a crisis. And that crisis justifies why the Fed can start jumping in and buying those bonds so that. But they need lower and lower yields in order to do that. So you end up buying in order to get those yields down. And the short term yields can't come down because it's creating more inflation. And there is the conundrum that the American markets are facing right now. They have to roll over the debt to roll over the Ponzi scheme and that's causing this fiscal dominance. What's the side effect? The rich get richer, the poor get poorer and you go deeper and deeper into this K shaped economy. But AI stocks are still leading. We've had corrections, we've had revaluations, SpaceX is below the IPO price which is what we were talking about. But there is, the rotation continues in and out around these AI stocks. But at each phase it's propping up the whole market. These data center buildouts, the knock on effects in terms of the manufacturing that's coming from it. And on the activist side people are starting to get more and more attention around these data centers being built. But anyway, the equity markets remain resilient, the bond yields are high and concerning gold, flat oil is firm and in reaction to what's happening in the Middle east and the petrodollar and Bitcoin is incredibly resilient relative to the attacks that are happening right now. And we'll see the result of that and we'll be going through. But stocks are at new highs. And what the story the markets are telling us is again the same thing. This is a managed transition. This is not an escalation to a wider war or World War 3. According to the markets. But this is a change in empire where we have two things. The FIC is transitioning the world to multipolarity. The MIC is using those operations to get more negotiation leverage for the financial industrial complex. And above that, they're setting up the control grid by the tick, the technical industrial complex. And in order to manage that transition, let's take a look at Japan. So Japan is really the biggest macro story that happened this week. There was an intervention by Japan in order to protect the Japan carry trade. Just as a quick recap, Japan has historically had 0% interest rates, sometimes negative, which has meant that people would go to a Japanese bank in order to borrow at very low or negative or even 0% interest rates. Hedge funds would do that and then they would invest it in U.S. stocks or U.S. assets. And so a big chunk. The largest lender to the US Government, foreign lenders outside Cayman island, which is the hedge funds and related is Japan. So you've got Japan and you've got Cayman Island. That is the Japan carry trade. The hedges are speculating what's called the basis trade, where they're trying to use significant leverage in order to clip out money from these US trying to auction and refinance their debt. Japan is, you know, is lending to the US government, which means that they take their Japanese yen, which they want to have weak as an export dependent country. But because of the oil prices, they don't have any of their oil, they import all of their oil. And so this creates a challenge. When you have a weaker currency and a higher oil price, then your markets go zinc. It is also a key node in the AI trade as well. And so this is causing stress. Now when you're decoupling from the US and you're transitioning the world into multipolarity, all the bank of Japan needs to do is start increasing its interest rates. When it increases its interest rates, it breaks the Japan carry trade because the free money is no longer there. And so you need a managed transition. Now this creates a bit of a game between the Federal Reserve and the bank of Japan because the bank of Japan is moving towards more independent in terms of their policy. But they're both members of the bank for International Settlements and the Federal Reserve is the bigger node in that. And so the, the, the Japan and US relationship, the bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve relationship managed via BIS is a very important relationship. So Japan intervened and the US reportedly decided to join the operations. Historically they just, you know, go out there and they put a call saying if I Want to buy some Japanese yen or sell some Japanese yen, then that spooks the market and then the fund managers tend to do the same thing and everyone reacts. It impacts bonds and everything. Now the more stress that happens in Japan, the more likely Japan is to sell their Treasuries. What happens if they sell their Treasuries? Then you get higher yields. What happens when you get higher yields? The US debt goes into a bloom. The, the tax, you get, you know, tax receipts coming down at the same time as the cost of debt going up. And so the deficit in America balloons out of control and it can potentially go into a spiraling where it needs to refinance more in order to roll over that at higher interest costs. Higher interest costs means that there's more stress, the yield starts going up and this is the, the doom loop that the US is trying to intervene and make sure it doesn't happen right now. And so the US treasury can intervene by taking some of its own. It has a bank account with the Federal Reserve. It also has its reserve strategic reserve currencies as well. And it holds those and manages them via the New York Fed. This is historically where the City of London and the new and the New York Fed have always had their relationship and their partnership because they. The City of London is the largest liquid market for FX and foreign exchange in the world. So the COVID MI6 CIA operations have historically happened via that relationship between New York and the City of London. But here's what's really interesting. What would they normally do? So a normal intervention is either they go out and they start making calls and they try and get the market to react, react or they would intervene more directly and they would sell some dollars. Which means when you sell dollars, you're selling bonds. When you sell bonds it means yields go up. When yields go up, those interest rates go up and you have a problem. So they can't do that. And so what they're doing around the world to stop people selling their bonds is they're issuing FX swap lines. That's where a foreign central bank can deposit their currency, borrow some dollars and then rather selling U.S. bonds. They take those dollars and intervene in the, in the mean, in the way they wanted to do. But this time what happened, they reportedly sold Euros. Now here's what's interesting. It you've got who are the largest foreign lenders and to the US government. Well after Cayman island, then you've got Japan, then you have uk, then you have European countries and you also have China, which has been selling down. So if China has been selling down, Japan is decoupling with this, you know, this decoupling from this carry trade. And you need to stop Japan from selling its dollars so it sells its bonds in order to prevent the yields going up. And you'd break the Japan carry trade which is providing liquidity to the stock market in some instances to take it to new all time high. Then what are you going to do in order to buy yen? Well, rather than doing the FX swap line in this environment, they decided to sell euros. And the European Central bank is also, via its nodes in Europe, one of the largest bondholders. So now you've got stress on the bond market from China, from Japan, from Cayman island hedges and Europe simultaneously. So to me, by, by selling these euros and buying yen and not doing it with dollars, you're avoiding the dollar weakness and therefore you're, you know, but we had a little bit of dollar weakness at the same time. But you're trying to stop those Treasuries from being sold. Again, manage transition. What you're doing is you're protecting the treasury market, which is the debt rollover, which is the mechanism for the financial industrial complex to socialize losses and privatize gains. You're increasing the debt so those auctions still happen. Dumping that on the American people, that creates inflation, which drives traffic into the stock market. And the stock market is, you know, 92% owned by the FCC. And so this is the wealth transfer. And you do that for as long as you can until eventually the banks are no longer willing to use Treasuries as their reserves. And so the foreign central banks use gold and you manage that transition. And so that really light relies into but you're reducing Japanese treasury selling is the idea here. Just like when UAE wanted to sell some of his Treasuries, it got an FX swap line. And in return UAE came out of opec, which breaks the petrodollar because OPEC was a syndicate that was formed. And the negotiated outcome of that there was a resistance after the 1973 oil embargo where the, the OPEC was a resistance against the large Western seven, you know, seven sister oil companies. But the settlement was the petrodollar. And so when you come out of opec you're breaking the petrodollar. So you get to stabilize yen while the bank of Japan gets to increase its interest rates. And then you put selling pressure on those euros as well. And so this is a slow carry trade unwind. And the fact they didn't do it via A Fed swap line means that they are slowly moving to this managed transition. And so you know these, these Treasuries is basically directing FX intervention through the financial industrial complex which is I think supporting this transition to multipolarity and has been my longer term thesis that I'm testing. And at the same time if there is too much stress there is additional facilities in the repo markets. The repo facility, this is the overnight lending market at the Fed for banks. And so this is the facility that has been being made available should there be any issues. In the end, what is the net result of this? Socialized losses, privatized gain, transition to multipolarity, put stress on the Japan carry trade which then impacts through now into the Eurodollar market. And at the same time the interventions in the Middle east with oil prices are putting stress on the petrodollar while the US bases are leaving or being blown up. At the same time as China becoming strategically important to the sovereign wealth funds and at the same time as the, the Iran escalation that is leading to the settlement of the Strait of Hormuz and all the different new defense pack that don't rely upon America in the Middle east as the Middle east becomes West Asia. And so foreign central bank repo Treasuries are new instruments, don't worry about all this jargon, they just create new tools, new instruments, new interventions. The idea is that you socialize the losses, privatize the gains into assets and you basically receive these dollars without having to sell Treasuries is the idea. And that is the carry trade. The carry trade is to borrow cheap yen, buy US shares and that pumps the stock market to new all on new all time highs. You need to unwind that in a very managed way so that you can dump the debt onto the national, you know, the national debt, socialize the losses and privatize the gains into the stock market and assets. So is this a managed unwind? Well, it needs to be combined with the other operations. So what happened on the side of the petrodollar? I gave you the history, what happened? This week we had a announcement of a Saudi maritime defense coalition. And so this is the alternative to relying upon the US bases and the US Navy to protect the seas so that America can retreat to a regional power. The fit can create multipolarity, the TIP can configure the global control grid and the MIC performs the operations to direct the flow of capital and lead to these new coalitions that don't rely upon the US as world reserve currency and the US as the global hegemon. And so this was 43 countries that signed up, 14 initial endorsements came through. And it was focused on the Red Sea Baba Mandeb, which at the moment is the settlement with Yemen and the Houthis which then touches into the Horn of Africa and the Gulf of Aden. And these are the assets where you're seeing the Turkish interests and the UAE interests being settled as well as the Saudi interest in Yemen. And that requires a couple of things to be settled. An agreement with Iran which was normalized with Saudi Arabia, which was normalized via China with Saudi Arabia. And then the the unwinding of resistance. So the justification for Israel as a mcnode can disappear. And then you transition out of the petrodollar with UAE coming out of opec. You set all the ports, you create the alternative financial system and financial rails with central bank digital currencies, Enbridge. And then you also have the, the SIPs, Chinese settlement networks and the alternative rails. If Iran's coming out of sanctions, then what do you price that oil in? And what happens to those gold routes and those oil routes that allowed via uae Iran to circumvent those sanctions? And so in order to get there you need shipping security in a post US hegemonic world fit for multipolarity. You also need energy security. And that's what this is focused on. So the Iran, Iran also released a draft legislation and this is not law at this stage, it's legislation which acts as negotiation leverage in these memorandum of understanding actually entering into a final agreement and final terms. But it is still under discussion in the Iran parliament at the moment. But it is around pricing oil in yuan in order to, you know, get out of the Strait of Hormuz. Or you could accept bitcoin payments. Now remember Scott Bessent came after the stable coins of Iran because they could just call Tether Tether that has now been approved under the Genius act after custodying all of their bonds with Canter Fitzgerald, Howard Lutnick. And so now Tether has become too big to fail. But they're taking the yield on the debt that they're holding with Cantor Fitzgerald and and they're purchasing bitcoin, mining, Bitcoin and gold. And of now it won quarter last year, excuse me, became a larger investor in gold with that yield than other central banks. So Tether has become too big to fail. Co opted into the FIC via Cantor Fitzgerald. Then Genius act passes and remember Cantor Fitzgerald has a 5% convertible bond in Tether the assets under management of Cancer Fitzgerald are approximately $3.5 billion. If that converts at the strike price, that is a 25 billion dollar asset for Cantor Fitzgerald. And so Cantor is incentivized to build this programmable money by holding the bonds. And those, those stable coins have now become too big to fail because you can't have anyone selling their treasuries, you need them buying treasuries. So the tick is pushing stablecoin adoption. Clarity act was delayed based upon the corruption clauses which we'll see what comes next. But Clarity act is effectively the tokenize everything programmable control grid that is emerging. And in Iran's agreement it was talking about pricing oil and the trade routes where you can pay in Bitcoin or you can price it in Chinese yuan. Now settlement is different from pricing. You could still price something in the dollar. That's irrelevant. It's how you settle it which becomes important. And that's the one to watch. You know, Saudi went from 100% petrodollar to 30% petro yuan to 70% petro dollar. And now we've got this network of central bank digital currencies and alternative settlement rails that happen outside Swift as well. And at the same time Iran and Amman Amad's put together a proposal. Iran has rejected that proposal. But Iran and Mon have discussed how they're going to do transit fees. Of course that relates to this maritime protection, you know, syndicate as well as the new security pacts happening in the Middle east that don't rely upon America having its bases so it can't project power via the petrodollar. And so this is the, the, the, the controlled demolition in a managed format of unwinding the petrodollar. Continue to price in dollars but settle in other currencies and remove the, the, the, the what was a protection racket was really the US projecting force via its US basis. So what's all the central banks doing? Of course they continue to buy gold that is slow and steady. We still have the fact that in the west there are paper derivatives that far exceed the amount of gold held in custody across Switzerland, across America, across London markets. And we've been extending the Singapore markets, the Hong Kong markets and Shanghai has, you know, doesn't have these paper contract environment. So whenever China wants to create stress in the commodity market, they can do something just like they did when they want to create stress in the AI market, they can show how they can perform significantly cheaper open source, their code. And that creates stress in the AI Stock market driven stock market. At the same time in the commodity market you can do the same thing. They have the gold, the west has the paper contracts. And it's only when central banks lend their gold that you could, that you can plug those gaps whenever anyone wants those gold. And so that's a rug pull in the making as well as the bond markets that we've already covered. You know, this triple whammy. Now we got the currency markets and the currency wars. So anyway, this is a multi factor currency attack or a managed transition rather than a controlled, you know, rather than a demolition to this multi currency settlement layers that we're witnessing and we've been following all over the years as well. It's a gradual transition, but with gradual transitions things can go wrong. And when things go wrong, you know, the FIC is there to make sure they get the liquidity and the Fed is there to socialize the losses and privatize the gains. And with every crisis, just like in 2008, you get BlackRock managing the purchases or with 2020 Covid, you get BlackRock managing those contracts. More assets end up in the Fed, the bank's dividend gets greater and you have this concentration of power over to the financial industrial complex. So as I said the euro dollar, the questions to ask is why use euros? I've given you my theory why they didn't use dollars. And, and we need to keep watching that, how that rolls out with the Japan carry trade and does that lead to ECB and ECB member banks in Europe selling some of those treasuries? Will there be an FX swap line? Because there is no separation between the European Central bank, the bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve, all coordinated via the bank for International Settlements which has its own jurisdiction, its own army, its own police in a building in Switzerland. Okay, so we have stress in the petrodollar or the slow unwind. We have now moving to the euro dollar and the stress with Europe. This is five transitions all at one time. We've got the, you know, the gold with central banks. We've got another operation with the petrodollar euro dollar and Japan carry trade. So what's the fifth one? Well, the fifth one is the COVID and over operation. Operation 2.0 was discussed in Senate. It was when the Fed and the occ, the regulator of currencies was putting pressure on Bitcoin companies so that Wall street and their, their preferred suppliers could take over and step in. Now that was under the Biden administration and then it pivoted during the Trump administration, the Genius act and Clarity Act. So it went from controlled demolition to enter up our preferred players. The rise of strategy headed by Michael Saylor and the rise of Blackrock ETFs under Larry Fink. We had these operations and the end result was more centralizing of Bitcoin in custody by the financial industrial complex. Then what do you do? You do Clarity act, you do genius act. This is where you can tokenize securities, you will own nothing and be happy. You get the bitcoin in custody, try and centralize it, give people a security and then tokenize it. And those on the wrong side of the K shaped economy get a stablecoin universal basic income. Those on the right side to get to concentrate the assets, but under the custody of BlackRock, who's using Coinbase. So they took Coinbase public as part of this, this operation as well. But as part of that you need to dissuade as much as possible. So I believe there is also cover operations to dissuade people from holding their Bitcoin in self custody, which then leads to what's coming this weekend, which is the resistance by node operators against BlackRock strategy, the miners, the big loft corporate interest, which mirrors very similar but a different flavor to what happened in 2017. If you swap out Barry Silbert and Digital Currency Group and the New York agreement in 2017 with Strategy, Coinbase and BlackRock and then all the nodes that come from that, like Cantor Fitzgerald, then you see a similar thing which is trying to centralize as much Bitcoin as possible, trying to influence policy. Policy to tokenize and create the technocratic control grid and dissuade cold storage as much as possible in self custody so that you can't run nodes against the corporate interest. Because the way that bitcoin works is you have developers, you have. And so BlackRock and everyone was announcing new budgets to fund developers, you have miners, which are largely public companies in the US or the largest private bitcoin miner is Tether. So you capture that the only last line of attack is if people hold it in self custody and run nodes is you have node operators, which is ordinary people. So what was the last block size war? It was because Tether was bloating the bitcoin blockchain via Omni, which led to a huge transaction fees. There was a debate over increasing block size to make transaction fees lower. But there's a trade off. If you increase block sizes, it reduces fees, but it makes it more expensive to run nodes, which reduces the number of nodes. And only Large economic nodes end up bothering to pay for it. So the more expensive it gets. Because remember, one node is one vote. There's no difference between a node with 100,000 Bitcoin and a node with 0.0000. One Bitcoin, one node, one vote. So the only way to concentrate and centralize nodes is to make it expensive to run those nodes. So only companies are incentivized to do it rather than the average person. And one way of doing that is by filling up the blocks and making it expensive. So you incentivize people to increase that block size and make it more expensive. Now we've had a different one with spam wars, which is really culminating in, in what happens today, tomorrow, August 7th, August 8th is what where we'll get an understanding of what comes next. Does this transition with nodes enforcing their power or do we enter into a more dangerous war? We will know tomorrow. So what led up to that? Well, the coal card hack. And what did the cold, hot, cold hack do? Follow the money, who benefits? Big Bitcoin, the financial industrial complex and everyone going away and saying, oh, this wasn't unique to cold card, it was actually self custody. So don't self custody, buy some strategy stock, buy some IBIT and or put it on coinbase is the end result. Now let me get the 2 difference. I'm discussing the operations and I'm discussing you as an individual. You need to keep your bitcoin safe and so you need to think about that as your primary thing. The operations is what I'm keeping an eye on because I was prepared for the attack. But those that were unprepared for the attack, they obviously need to focus on protecting their Bitcoin. Don't confuse the two. Then in a calm environment, you hopefully get back to joining us in self custody and running nodes or whatever it may be. Fortunately there is a big spike in nodes. But where it's very strange, those nodes, the big increase has been the nodes running knots and, and signaling. For BIP110 there was also a big increase in nodes running a very old version of Bitcoin bit, you know, bip 27 rather than bit 30. V30, sorry, v27 rather than v30. Now the fact that those have gone up significantly implies a coordinated hostile attack to try and keep it hidden. How many people are signaling knots? Because the number of knots nodes is going up and up and up. I think it's about 18,000 or something right now, but the percentage has remained constant. Matthew Kratter did a Video where he showed that by putting nodes up, that is signaling for an old version of Bitcoin core, you're able to make that percentage look constant at the very same time as the timing of this Cold Card hack. So the community is asking a lot more questions. So I already covered the exploit last week or a couple of weeks. Yeah, last week. I think it is to do with Cold Card. It was is to do with how the seed phrase is generated and it was a very low insecure entropy. You can go through the video last week if you want to have a bit more on that, or there's videos all around the Internet to help you understand this. But the interesting thing is that now the community is, you know, is going through everything, doing the open source due diligence. It looks like there was already historical wallet drains with Cold card already in 2022, and there was a 2022 Reddit case where it was explained and there was significant implications that those involved in Coldcard knew about this, ignored it, and the entropy bug timeline is being investigated. I've not reached a conclusion yet. I'm just looking through the incentives and letting you know that we will figure this out. The other thing is that the hack was just like Bitfinex. The hardest thing of a hack is spending the Bitcoin because the Bitcoin then sits in a wallet that everyone traces. So it's virtually impossible to spend, which is why the Bitcoin, the Bitfinex hack, Bitcoin ended up being returned minus some rants and power structure as well. But these are bitcoins that were swept into an address that everyone's watching. So it's going to be very hard to spend them. So it means there's an alternative motive. Or they think they can spend those bitcoins somehow, which is how you get caught. It's very, very hard to steal Bitcoin at scale and not get caught. It's in fact virtually impossible, no matter how long it takes. So you can only leave them there. Which means why did the hack happen in the first place if it wasn't financial? I believe it was alternative motives, but we will investigate that as well. So researchers are now revisiting earlier thefts related to Coal Card. Larger estimated losses are happening at the moment. The attack still continues. You need to be off Coal Card. AI is accelerating its attack vector based upon this unique weakness of what looks like a bad actor right now. But the technical investigations continue as well. So AI is a counter force as well. And so we're entering into that AI war But as I said, anyone using cold cards, you need to move your coins, you need to move to a new environment and you need to study entropy because this is perfectly fixable. There's no issue with Bitcoin, there's no issue with those wallets that have high entropy. This was just code that was identified, exploited and allowed to persist and then exploited one week before this operation to determine how important nodes are in resisting against corporate interests. So there's lots of community theories and we'll continue to investigate them. But it looks like, and the question that they're asking is if ColdCard knew, was it simply that they decided that they wanted to allow this to exist or was there a greater ulterior motive? Was this an insider job? Was this state and in my estimation the state is always used by the military industrial complex and the financial industrial complex because Mick is subordinate to fic and so the timing is very suspicious. These are all questions worth asking. We don't have the answer yet, but we do know that tomorrow the bip110 hard fork or the bip110 implementation. Got to get the words right. It's not a hard fork yet. Is already is happening. I explained it. You can go to my blog on SimonDixon.com where I explained in very detail around the game theory, follow the money, the actors behind it, what I'm doing, why I'm doing it, at what point I stop, at what point I support, right now I am in full support of demonstrating that node operators can resist against the financial industrial complex and the players that have been wrapped into the fig. And so I've already explained all of that. So what happens, what, what I think is most useful is explaining what happens tomorrow so that you can keep an eye on it. So this weekend we have what's called mandatory signaling. And so the miners right now, if they want, they can signal on whether they support BIP 110 or whether they're actually going to mine, you know, BIP 110. Now, there are different parts of the ecosystem that I want you to understand. There are the ASIC manufacturers which mainly manufactured in China. They rely upon companies in China and they rely upon semiconductor chips in Taiwan. They end up specifically equipment that is mined. Who for whoever wants to purchase them and mine Bitcoin. So the ones in America and China are like the biggest nodes. There's Russia, there's Iran, there's other places as well. But the most significant is the ones that are mined in China and in Russia and also in America. Now The American ones split into public companies. And then you have big miners like Tether that plan to be the biggest miner because they're using the US debt in order to build a large private bitcoin mining operation. So what happens right now is those miners then point their hash power, their asics, their electricity towards a mining pool. And a mining pool is pooling together lots of different miners. So there's miners all around the world. They point towards a pool and that pool gets to signal. Now it's mandatory signaling tomorrow. If the miners use a different type of software like a pool, like Ocean, which is the pool used and was developed by the same type of people behind BIP110, then the miners that are actually running their own mining, they get to signal and set the rules themselves. And this is kind of, you know, where it was a resistance against mining pools. Who are the largest mining pools? Well, Foundry is one of them. Ample F2 Paul and Paul. F2 Paul. They came from the Chinese bitcoin ecosystem. And Foundry is connected to Barry Silbert's digital currency group, who was the corporate conglomerate behind the big, the big block size in the New York agreement that happened in 2017. And then we met in Hong Kong with the miners, the developers and some of the corporate interests. And the New York agreement was, you know, basically what led to the resistance by node operators. It was called a user activated soft fork. So the importance is what happens, what does Foundry do, what does Anpool do, what does F2 pool do? And also how many miners start using their own signaling? So the 2.6% that are might that are signaling from the miners for BIP110 right now is the current state of play right before last time in 2017 that held right until the last block. And then right until the last block when you had the activation, you got this massive spike in signaling from the miners. Now if they signal, then bitcoin continues as usual. So you know, that's, that's the, okay, we're, we're not entering into a more violent war type of thing. And so it's all upon the miners now currently they're signaling 2.6%. It has to get to 55, which really means what will foundry do, what will F2 pull do and what will Apple do? And there are other players that can coordinate and play the game theory as well. The voluntary threshold, as I said historically has been like 95 in the block. In the, in the first block war, it was 95. In this one, we need minor signaling of 55 that's the threshold at which we enter into this uninterrupted process. And so there's two scenarios from tomorrow. Scenario one is that the poor signal, if the poor signal when we get above 55%, then the, the network is united, it's uninterrupted. It means that activation path has already happened. It will be active and then there's a one year process, but the activation path continues, is uninterrupted. The community, the nodes and the miners agree and really nothing dramatic will happen if we get above 55%. There is a second scenario that can happen tomorrow and then I need to let you know what you can do. The second scenario is that we remain where we are, 2.6% activation and the miners refuse the rules that the nodes are signaling, you know, 20, 20% of the nodes are signaling that they want. Now remember, that's why there's that attack on the nodes to manipulate the numbers, because the nodes are signaling. It's the fastest increase in nodes that have decided, you know, that have, that are signaling and running knots as an alternative implementation to the core developers. So if they do this, then BIP110 nodes are effectively rejecting. They're rejecting what the miners are mining. So the nodes enforce the rules. The miners decide what blocks you know are mining the blocks and the pools get to signal, or in the case of ocean, they signal as well, which is why you've got this 2.6%. So if that stays exactly where we are, then it's up to, you know, then basically we're in a civil war. Now, a civil war is a dramatic term, but what happened during the last civil war is there are risks. And so people should cease activity with their bitcoin and they should just sit it out. At that stage you get a trading effort amongst exchanges, wallet providers and various other things that determine what is going to be bitcoin. When people are contentious around this, this is how we resolve our civil wars, as per the rules of mass and code and the construct of this decentralized network. So if core followers are the majority hash, then we end up with a possible competing chain. This is what happens with Bitcoin cash. You end up with a competing chain. What you know you're going to get to a competing chain when. I don't want to go too geeky, but they implement replay protection. That means that a transaction on one chain is either replayed or not replayed on another chain. It's a clear split when you have replay protection. At the moment, we could end up In a scenario where there is a competing chain, what does that mean? Everyone that had the legacy bitcoin ends up with new bitcoin as well. Two coins. One of them, I've heard with replay protection, becomes a shitcoin and goes off on its own direction. Or we solve the consensus and that is when the miners and the nodes through the rules of mass and code, settle how this is going to be done. And there is counter moves. I covered those. Now there wasn't a minor resisted soft fork. So this is happening tomorrow. Unless something happens. I don't think there will be, but there is that replay risk that's not been resolved yet. So. So what this means is that typically exchanges require higher numbers of confirmations. In the last one, coinbase got really hit when there was no replay protection. I think this happened during the Ethereum hard fork as well. Coinbase ended up with a massive loss. And so exchanges will demand more and more confirmations because they got hit by that exchange sometimes pauses and they decide to cease trading while it's being resolved. Lightning might be cautious because the way it's constructed on layer two is if you have, you know, two channels and one is on one chain and one's on the other. This could be very confusing. I don't want to go too geeky, but anyway, caution prevails. Parts of the ecosystem decide where they're going to be. We enter into the game theory, the game is set and we end up stronger over the other side. And the, the last time we showed that nodes had power against corporate capture. And that's a very important thing to show here. So in terms of user guidance, here's what I just want you to know. Remember, there's the game, there's the civil war and there's you protecting yourself. If there is no split, if the signaling happens, everything's normal. You don't need to worry about yourself. You're just dealing with if you have exposure to cold card. As I said, it's a miracle that bitcoin price is like this incredibly strong relative to where we were this time last time in the civil war. But if it splits, then my suggestions is make sure you have sorted out your cold card situation. If you're one of those 5,000 users that are exposed, make sure you have sort that that out now because once we move to this, if we end up in a split scenario, your job is to wait. You don't want to be moving coins. This is why I'm very suspicious about the coordination and the timing of this attack. You Know this is designed to create maximum chaos if it were a coordinated attack. And what do they want you to do? They want you to take your coins, give them to Coinbase so that they can decide for you. You're taking nodes off the network. When you're trying to discourage self custody and running nodes, you're taking self custody and node operators that resist one vote against the power of Coinbase, BlackRock and Strategy. And you put them in Coinbase, you put them in Strategy, you put them in ibit, you know, and that's the idea. That's why they want to centralize the. So there's less to resist against. This is the attack vector. And so all these exchanges they, you know, you'll, you'll see probably extra confirmation. And so what will I do? I will be watching the exchanges. If we enter into this scenario, this can be avoided by the signaling happen. It's completely unnecessary. You know, the, this doesn't need to happen this way. And then we can go through the rules that are set. And as long as nodes can determine that they can resist against corporate capture, then the financial industrial complex has lost on their mission. So any anyway, like what happened this week and what happened next, the largest corporate bitcoin holders, they all spoke out against bit 110 and asked the node operators to stand down. So they were asking. So this shows you now why if this didn't matter, would someone like strategy even ask the community to stand out? It's because strategy knows and they're trying to exert their influence over the bitcoin network and the at the same time as announcing that they're putting together budgets to fund developers. So then we have this attack. So we have an attack on nodes, an attack on, you know, the central or attack by the centralizing forces, which is the miners and the corporate interests that are also looking to fund the developers at the same time. So this could be at the government level, this could be the intelligence level, this could be the FIC level, it could be just a set of incentives. We don't know for sure. But the, you know, this is a, an important one for us to watch, for you to learn from. And we need to show that the defense actually prevails. Now I was on X basis this weekend and I was very surprised that people didn't know much about strategy and its background and its departments. I noticed that Staler was on Diary of a CEO this weekend, or it came out this week rather. And many people don't even know that the defense contract and the intelligence division that exists within Strategy. Now this could be, as I said, this could be. You know, there's a department within Strategy, the company. I always talk about incentives. I never focus on characters and personalities and attacks. I just talk about incentives and I just talk about architecture and construct so I can try and remove some of the drama. And everyone wants to draw you into drama and debates and Jerry Springer and all that stuff. You ain't going to get me there. This is about understanding governance structure, incentives, networks, and how to remain complicit with the fic. When you have public companies, which is why they want more public companies. But Micro Strategy has government services. Some of its services were launched in 2022. And there is a. A member of the board. Let me get the name right. Karen Schieffer. If you have a. Look her up, just look it up on AI. Karen Schieffer worked 26 years with the CIA. She's the director of Intelligence Programs and she was also in charge of National Security Council as well as. Listen to this. Managed presidential Covert Action Programs. Covert Operations works within Strategy. Strategy, the public company that is subordinate to FIC that sells intelligent software and has members on the board with 26 years experience in covert CIA operations. She also represents. She's a representative to the FBI National Security Branch. Now. Okay, maybe just one. What about the other member, Tom Aiken? He's the former acting Assistant Secretary of Defense, the Homeland. Sorry, yeah, part of the history in Homeland Defense. What about Sailor himself? Well, Sailor actually comes from a background. He was actually commissioned into the US Air Force himself. And so these are just the facts. These are just the circles, the networks involved in the largest corporate purchaser of bitcoin that owns 840,000. And as soon as we get to this stage, he starts launching. He starts talking on Diary of a CEO how he created debt instruments with AI. Now think through this. AI guides Michael Saylor how to create debt instruments, those debt instruments. He was talking about how he raised $15 billion from the thick the financial industrial complex, loading up a public company with debt. And then AI creates a product, according to Saylor, which then leads to commitments in dividends and debt repayments that decouple from the premium that the company once had over their Bitcoin asset value crashes the price of strc, which was their instrument, that pays fixed dividends that they can remove at any point. And then they have to start selling Bitcoin in order to pay dividends to the fic. So the FIC is receiving these dividends and any STRC holders While AI is telling them how to construct a product that raises 15 billions that makes it subordinate. That then leads to having to sell some of the bitcoin. And then now a budget is set by strategy with BlackRock in order to fund developers on security. While simultaneously there is operations that discourage self custody Bitcoin into custody. And where is strategy? Coinbase custodying that bitcoin with Coinbase and fidelity. Where is BlackRock custodying that Bitcoin with Coinbase? Where is the US government which is seizing bitcoins for their bitcoin strategic reserves via the Department of Justice, the same one that has these governmental contracts. Where are they holding their Bitcoin with Coinbase? So net effect coordinated or what? This is about trying to take out the nodes and our resistance to the FIC is the nodes and making it cheap for nodes to run. This has always been the battle. The divide and conquer is coming back again. And what do they want to do when they conquer? They want you to put your bitcoin in a public company so they can issue you a security and then BlackRock wants to tokenize it so you will own nothing and be happy. And when they rug pull your assets with the flash crash just like they did to Binance on 10th of 1010 last year, then you end up getting margin called if you borrow against it, which is Howard Lutnick's role as he brings more and more parts of the ecosystem into these treasury companies. And then you are issued if you have no assets, a stablecoin and a central bank digital currency so that you will be happy and AI will take a job at the same time. So understand the incentives and what the resistance is. This is a digital resistance. It's not digital credit, it's not digital whatever it is a digital resistance, one through self custody and nodes. So research yourself, you decide what that means. I just wanted to give you the context. It's not proof that this is an intelligence op, but you decide. Okay. Anyway, what happened this week? Anyway, so Michael Staler goes on Diary of CEO, the second largest podcast in the world to discuss fake bitcoin over bitcoin. And we have this, you know, bip 110 side that's happening simultaneously and Michael Saylor decides to come out publicly on X and say that bip110 please stand down was his words. He made it out like this, you know that the nodes deciding what rules they want to enforce against the centralizing forces and the corporate interest that we should stand down in order to avoid a contentious fork which Is true. But this is what if, if the nodes aren't able, aren't able to resist against this, then what does that mean? And that's what we're going to find out over the next year or so. And of course Adam Back that was working with Counter Fitzgerald to create a bitcoin treasury company and likely roll in Blockstream that has a lot of controversy right now. And after we had, you know, the, the revelations in the Epstein files around funding and remember many people think Adam Back was like around during satoshi time. Adam Back was catching up on Bitcoin in 2013. He launched Blockstream in 2014 to centralize many of the developers at the same time as Epstein working with Brock Pierce in order to facilitate investments into Blockstream. And there was a resistance out of that, which was, you know, Luke Dash Jr. That was hired as an advisor to Blockstream that started, you know, also which is connected to BIP110. I covered these things in my blog. I don't want to go too deep. But anyway, of course Adam Back and Blockstream are opposed to this and the bigger question is what is the real thing here? Who governs Bitcoin at the moment? The way that the, in the. That keeps us decentralized is the fact that nodes are able to resist, as I said. But is it developers? What happens if all developers can be captured? Will you create completing implementations? And when you create competing implementations, what if they get corrupted? Well, it's bitcoin improvement proposals and then they can't do it on their own because it is the miners that mine the blocks and it is the nodes that decide that enforce the rules. As long as that persists, the fit can do what they want and you can see the different things they are doing. But is it the developers? Is it the mining pools? Is it the ASIC owners? Or is it the node operators? And does that maintain? Because when you try and centralize all of them to the fic, then we don't have the resistance and it will be the big bitcoiners that decide what happens. Is it the ETF issuers at that point? Is it the corporate treasury companies at that point? Well, that is the battle. So don't fall for any of the covert operations. And this is at the highest level, you know, to think that we would create money outside the system and not have the highest level of power attack us all the way. Which is why I'm still here, you know, after all the people that dropped out, I'm still here after 15 years. I'm still giving content. I'm still trying to share that experience. I'm still trying to build the resistance and knocking my glasses off my face because I'm trying to help you remain sovereign while we fight for what is are one of our biggest tools of resistance to remain sovereign. So in closing watch what happens this weekend. I'll obviously report on it next weekend. So watch what the what happens with treasury yields? Do we get a further blowout and what will be the reaction if yields continue to go up on the 10 year and the 30 year. Watch the yen. We need to see what happens. What is the intervention? How does it intersect with euro, the euro dollar? How does this intersect with the oil prices based upon the petrodollar? And how does this transition in the Japan carry trade? What does the Fed do? What does the ECB do? What does the bank of Japan do? Keep watching that. Also watch gold. Watch it as a percentage to how many central banks are holding U.S. treasuries in this transition. Watch the oil price at the moment there's nothing is indicating to me when you put all that together that we're moving to World War 3. What is indicating to me is a movement towards multipolarity while building a a global control grid which has been my long term thesis and so watch bitcoin and we'll see what happens with the signaling and if we have over 55% signaling then we can watch bit 110 and and you know we end up with a peaceful transition or we enter into a civil war in which case your job is to make sure you fixed your coal card situation. If you're exposed get those bitcoin off cold card and then watch calmly. And if you end up with your coins in an exchange because of the the op remember protect yourself first, that's very important. But if you end up in an exchange then you lose your ability to participate in this battle and you hand it over to the fi. Now as I said in order of importance, your money, if you need to get it over to the fic then don't participate in this. If you can get it over beforehand then you can participate in this. But I don't want you to. I do want you to rush out a cold card if you still got money there. But I don't want you to rush, end up on an exchange and then make a silly mistake while you're setting up your secure environment. You have to take time with that. Just accept there are many other people on this battle, there's enough of us and you can Come back and join us on another day. But if you lose your bitcoin, then you're out of the battle. It's better to keep your bitcoin and then come back and fight with us another day if that's your only choice. Otherwise join us on the battle. You know, run your node, continue in self custody and use this as an opportunity to explore those things you wanted to explore, like multi six rolling dice for entropy and everything you should be doing as you want to build your sovereign protection from these attack vectors. So of course I'll be watching the mining pools, that's the most important thing. And then if the mining pools don't signal, I'll be watching the exchanges. So in summary, five transitions all coming to a historical point this week. The petrodollar, the euro dollar, the Japan carry, trademark gold and bitcoin. So my final question, are policymakers managing a transition into a new monetary order? Are these covert operations? Are these over operations? And who controls the policymakers? Follow the money. I'm on chapter 20 now of my book Game of Money to help you understand how to read all these parameters and most importantly how to build a sovereign plan so that you can manage a transition from any subordination to sovereign vectors. It's not a bitcoin book, it's a sovereign book. Interestingly, just to give you a little bit of an update, I was writing chapter 19 and one of the sovereign assets is on. Sovereign assets is bitcoin, one of the three. And as I was writing it, I was going through some of these operations just so you could understand it. I was trying to do it high level overview. But every time I saw an operation, I remembered another operation, then another operation, then another operation. And what I decided to do actually evolved, one chapter evolved into an entire book. And what I asked AI to do is as I was writing it, I asked it to pull it all out and actually I'm going to create an entire so I don't clut the the sovereign book because it's on money in general and you know, bitcoin's only one part of one chapter, but I asked it to do another book and create another one chapters on all the different operations within the bitcoin space from things I've never shared, things I've never told. And so I'm going to follow it up with another book as well after that. So anyway, are these isolated responses to separate, you know, market stresses or is there something more coordinated here? As I've always said, it doesn't really matter. Follow the money and the incentives can drive it. And who controls the capital at the top is the asset managers. And so we follow the capital in order to figure out how to get ahead. And so with that in mind, that's everything I'm going to be covering in part one. So now we're going to move over to part two. In part two, it was my interview with Daniel Esterlin. I came on his channel and the topic that we talked about was from the American empire to the technocratic control grid. So I hope you enjoyed the interview. Always remember, you are alive at one of the most interesting and exciting times in financial history. It's going to be very good for some, very bad for others, and I want you to be on the right side of that change. Now, if you enjoyed this content, just before we go to the interview, there's a few resources and things that you can do. Firstly, about 70, 26% of the people that watch my videos from the last month are not subscribers. So please become a subscriber if you're new. I cover this every Friday to make sure you're up to date. I make sure there's no sponsorship, no upsell business model, no monetization, no adverts, you know, just, just content so that you can join us on this journey and remain more sovereign. If you want more people to have this content, please share it, Please like it. Please put a comment in the comments and that will, you know, that will really help us get our message out to more people because we rely upon that. There are other ways in which you can support us as well, which is that if you head over to Rumble and follow me over there, if YouTube ever takes me out, we're going to be streaming over there. I need to make sure that our resistance against any takeout from YouTube is as strong as possible. So please follow. 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If everything we get completely taken out, then that's our hub and that's where I'll be streaming on webinars exclusively. Also, if we get shadow banned, it means I can still email you and once what we do is once a week on a Friday, we email you the updates and make sure you're aware and then we give you a summary on a Monday or Tuesday in case you missed it. And that's all we do, content and making sure you're aware of the resources. So if you would like to make sure that you don't miss a thing on this journey and you would like to participate in this open source movement from subordinate to sovereign, then please engage in any of those mediums and join the newsletter on SimonDixon.com and create a membership for yourself. So with that in mind, let's. I hope you enjoy the interview in part two. So let's transition over there right now. I'll see you this time next week. For Simon Dixon Hard Talk Live Peace. From the American empire to the technocratic control grid. I think we're all feeling it. We can feel something and sense something in the air. We can feel the surveillance coming. It's getting more and more intrusive with AI, but it's also an opportunity for us to remain sovereign. How do we deal with it? Well, I was invited onto a podcast with Daniel Etzelin and he asked me where did this come from? It started with the Dutch Empire, moved over to the British Empire and people think that Trump's taken on some European banking cabal, which, or maybe it's the City of London that's still in charge. What if it's a greater force? Well, we sat down to discuss that and once you know that, you can then figure out how to protect yourself because it's coming and it's coming. This interview is going to be played right after Feimon Dixon Parkour flight.