Podcast
Simply Put
Hosted by Will Compernolle · EN
A podcast from FHN Financial looking at the most important things driving fixed income markets and the macroeconomy. Every episode features experts who give unique insights on topics like the regional banking landscape, commercial real estate, or how to translate Federal Reserve policy into market strategies. Tune in to better understand what’s been moving markets lately, and what to keep an eye on in the weeks and months ahead. Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts
19episodes
Episodes
Newest firstAll episodes
Emanuel Mönch on the Post-Pandemic Term Premium
2w ago00:27:26Tap to summarizeThe term premium — investors’ compensation for holding longer-term Treasuries instead of T-bills — fluctuates with inflation uncertainty, federal deficit worries, and central banks’ balance sheets. The New York Fed’s Adrian, Crump, and Mönch model estimates the 10-year Treasury term premium is higher than before the pandemic but substantially lower than it was pre- GFC. The post-pandemic term premium will shape the path of longer-term Treasuries as bond investors consider what the new normal looks like. In this episode, we talk with Emanuel Mönch, Professor of Financial and Monetary Economics at the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, about the models estimating the term premium, what’s driven changes over the last forty years, and how it could shift under a Warsh-led Fed.
Transcribe →Stan Veuger on the Economic Risks of Population Decline
4w ago00:27:28Tap to summarizeChanges in foreign migration caused US population growth to slow last year and potentially turn negative in 2026. Federal programs and private debt markets structured around an assumption of growth must now contend with the possibility of a shrinking labor force. Meanwhile, Fed officials have become remarkably sanguine amid near-zero job growth, convinced the labor market remains curiously in balance because of changes in the labor supply. In this episode, we talk with Stan Veuger, Senior Fellow in Economic Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute, about the abrupt slowdown in US population growth, what it means for breakeven job growth, and how current trends will impact future interest rates.
Transcribe →Jeff Lacker on Shrinking the Fed’s Balance Sheet
Apr 1700:50:47Tap to summarizeThe Fed’s balance sheet has swelled from $900 billion in 2008 to just under $7 trillion in April 2026. Policymakers bought up securities to support the economy during the global financial crisis and pandemic, but critics allege the enormous balance sheet boosts inflation and distorts financial markets. If Kevin Warsh tries to reduce the Fed’s holdings as Chair, he must contend with the existing regulatory environment and the Fed’s ample reserves regime. In this episode, we talk with Jeff Lacker, the former President of the Richmond Fed from 2004-2017, about the theory behind central bank asset purchases, the costs and benefits of QE, and how a Kevin Warsh-led Fed could shrink the balance sheet.
Transcribe →SPECIAL PODCAST: Rachel Ziemba on the Strait of Hormuz
Apr 900:40:37Tap to summarizeThe recently announced two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran is giving investors hope that traffic will normalize soon in the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that before the war serviced a fifth of global oil supply. As countries search for workarounds to plug the shortfall, a spike in global commodity prices has reinvigorated inflation worries, prompted expectations for central bank tightening, and weighed on global growth sentiment. The path of US inflation this year will depend on the pass-through to consumers and whether the Strait sustainably reopens. In this special edition of Simply Put, we talk with geopolitical analyst Rachel Ziemba about the Strait of Hormuz’s role in global commodity markets, how higher raw material costs affect consumer prices, and what it will take to normalize traffic in the Strait.
Transcribe →Fabio Natalucci on the Rise and Risks of Private Credit
Apr 300:45:00Tap to summarizePrivate credit has outgrown its original niche of lending to middle-market firms using funds from institutional investors with long time horizons. Rising participation from retail investors and banks has increased the sector’s interconnectedness with the wider financial system, making investors worried that a wave of redemption requests could lead to a cascade of tighter financial conditions and slower economic growth. In this episode, we talk with Fabio Natalucci, Managing Director at the Andersen Institute for Finance and Economics, about the conditions that caused the rise of private credit, what’s behind its recent distress, and the sector’s biggest vulnerabilities.
Transcribe →Chad Syverson on the Causes and Effects of a Productivity Boom
Mar 2000:38:27Tap to summarizeAI optimism is fueling expectations for a sustained post-pandemic productivity surge that supports robust economic growth and permits easier Fed policy. However, history suggests full technological implementation can take decades and some industries could still struggle to become more productive. As policymakers consider the impacts of profound technological change, they’ll have to confront difficulties measuring productivity in real-time. In this episode, we talk with Chad Syverson, Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago, about the sectors seemingly immune to productivity growth, how quickly innovations can increase productivity, and AI’s potential impacts on inflation and interest rates.
Transcribe →Joe Kane on the Infrastructure Demands of AI Data Centers
Mar 600:41:49Tap to summarizeAs investment into Artificial Intelligence continues to grow, construction of AI data centers is significantly increasing the demand for electricity, water, and land use across the country. These centers can require the same amount of water as a fifty-thousand-person town and could represent 12% of overall US electricity consumption in the coming years. Inflexible supply creates the risk of rapid price increases while private and public sector leaders work to meet the growing demand. In this episode, we talk with Joe Kane, Fellow at the Brookings Institution, about why these AI data centers are so resource-intensive, their impact on local infrastructure, and the bottlenecks limiting quicker supply adjustments.
Transcribe →Bill Nelson on the Withering Fed Funds Market
Feb 2000:43:13Tap to summarizeThe Federal Reserve influences financial conditions through the federal funds market, a private market consisting of unsecured overnight interbank transactions. As the locus of money markets moves away from fed funds and more towards repos and SOFR, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan has argued the current policy regime no longer suits the financial system. In this episode, we talk with Bill Nelson, Chief Economist and Chief Research Officer at the Bank Policy Institute, about the shifting nature of the fed funds market, what it would take to revive fed funds, and some alternative approaches to short-term rate policy.
Transcribe →George Pearkes on Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair
Feb 600:39:15Tap to summarizePresident Trump has nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair later this year. Warsh called for “regime change” at the Fed last year, reiterating his long-held criticism of the Fed’s large balance sheet, data-dependence, and use of forward guidance. His tenure would begin with an already-divided FOMC and lingering worries surrounding threats to the Fed’s political independence. In this episode, we talk with George Pearkes, Macro Strategist with Bespoke Investment Group, about what Kevin Warsh brings to the Fed and how his leadership could drive monetary policy in the years ahead.
Transcribe →Lisa Simon on the Labor Market Impacts of AI
Jan 2300:31:23Tap to summarizeArtificial Intelligence (AI) is poised to disrupt the labor market by replacing certain tasks and enhancing the productivity of others. Although these changes could eventually lead to broader prosperity, they could also cause worker displacement, increase inequality, and decrease entry-level work opportunities. In this episode, we talk with Lisa Simon, Chief Economist of Revelio Labs, about the ways AI has already impacted the labor market, its diverse effects across occupations and industries, and what history can tell us about the longer-term future of work.
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