Sinica Podcast
Episode: Brookings' Patricia Kim Takes Stock of Trump's Second-Term China Policy
Host: Kaiser Kuo
Guest: Patricia (Patty) Kim, Brookings Institution
Date: February 11, 2026
Episode Overview
This episode features a deep dive into U.S.-China policy one year into Donald Trump’s second term, with Kaiser Kuo hosting Patricia Kim from the Brookings Institution. Drawing on Kim’s recent Brookings assessment (co-authored with Joyce Yang), the conversation scrutinizes whether the Trump administration’s stated China policy objectives—re-industrialization, AI leadership, supply chain de-risking, and restoring global standing—are producing real-world results. The discussion moves beyond headlines to offer evidence-driven analysis and candid reflections on enduring structural challenges.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Does Trump Have a Coherent China Strategy?
[04:46–09:36]
- Despite criticisms, there’s “a surprising degree of consistency” in high-level objectives: boost domestic industry, maintain technology dominance (esp. AI), reduce supply chain dependence, and restore U.S. global stature.
- Trump has not articulated a unified “doctrine” or strategy document; instead, he relies heavily on personal judgment and leader-to-leader diplomacy, often acting as “his own China desk officer.”
- Many objectives enjoy bipartisan support and echo those of prior administrations, but Trump’s execution is more improvisational.
“Trump is indeed described often as his own China desk officer... He places significant weight on his personal relationship with President Xi Jinping...”
—Patricia Kim [06:06]
2. Structural Continuity vs. Presidential Style
[09:36–10:43]
- If another administration came to power, objectives would likely remain, though policy tools and tone would shift.
- Institutional and economic realities shape broad continuity in U.S. China policy.
3. Re-industrialization: Tariffs and Reality
[13:17–24:54]
- Kim’s analysis: Rhetoric outpaces results. No clear manufacturing resurgence; indicators (employment, construction, utilization) are flat or declining.
- Policy uncertainty, tariff volatility, and skepticism among partners undermine private investment.
- Tariffs function ambiguously, often raising costs or injecting policy risk, rather than predictably driving domestic investment.
“Firms in reality are facing a combination of higher labor costs, higher prices for intermediate inputs, uncertainty ... so instead of seeing a rush to reshore, many firms are waiting, scaling back plans, or looking for alternatives outside of the United States.”
—Patricia Kim [16:48]
- Many “blockbuster” foreign investment deals are non-binding, long horizon, or characterized differently by partners, raising doubts about ultimate impact.
- Volatile policy tools (tariffs) are mismatched with the long-term nature of industrial investment.
4. U.S. Leadership in AI: Strengths, Constraints, and Diffusion
[24:54–35:32]
- The U.S. holds leadership in chip design, compute, AI platforms/research, but faces rising pressures: export control volatility, constraints on physical infrastructure, talent, and decentralized decision-making.
- Trump administration has shifted export controls, at times relaxing them to maintain U.S. leverage (e.g., on Nvidia chips), fueling debate over security vs. economic gain.
“These advantages are increasingly under stress … critics point out that the United States is essentially handing away its compute advantage at a time when China is racing to close the gap.”
—Patricia Kim [27:00]
- Infrastructure bottlenecks, especially in energy and data centers, hinder U.S. buildout; the U.S. model is decentralized and slower than China’s state-driven approach.
- Crucially, AI “leadership” is not just about breakthroughs but diffusion—China excels at spreading and embedding AI domestically and throughout the Global South, often by bundling it with financing, hardware, and open-source models.
“If China is gaining ground where AI is actually being used and embedded and normalized around the world, then it may be running ahead in the competition in other ways that matter.”
—Patricia Kim [35:02]
5. Strategic Dependence and De-Risking: The Rare Earths Lesson
[35:32–41:30]
- Rare earths episode highlighted the deep, structural nature of supply chain dependence—it’s about not just extraction, but downstream processing and manufacturing.
- Despite U.S. efforts (stockpiles, partner coordination), China dominates the rare earths supply chain, especially processing and magnets. U.S. officials’ promises to de-risk “within two years” are unrealistic.
- True de-risking requires predictable policy and sustained allied coordination, both undermined by U.S. policy volatility.
“You can't do this overnight. Supply chain resilience requires long-horizon investments, predictable policy environments, sustained coordination with allies and partners.”
—Patricia Kim [39:18]
- Many other sectors (pharma, EV batteries, semiconductors) share similar vulnerabilities.
- In the short run, both sides appear to prioritize trade truces rather than structural decoupling, recognizing the timeframes required for real change.
6. Restoring American Standing:
[41:30–48:59]
- The administration’s claims of restored respect abroad are not supported by polling, which shows declining favorability, including among close allies.
- Weak “standing” has real consequences for U.S. efforts: it makes allies less willing to absorb costs or align on major initiatives (e.g., export controls).
- China’s global approach is deliberate but limited—it seeks to revise the order in its favor without incurring global leadership burdens.
“The reality is I don't think Beijing is interested at all in replacing Washington as a global leader ... It's done this while avoiding deep entanglements and the broader responsibilities that come with global leadership.”
—Patricia Kim [47:13]
7. Scenarios for U.S.-China Relations & Strategic Outlook
[50:01–54:53]
- Current trajectory: Both sides are “buying time” to build resilience; mutual vulnerabilities have not produced clear victories.
- China sees recent dynamics as advantageous (surviving the trade war, wielding rare earths, securing a truce); Trump is content with “stability.”
- Upcoming summits: Trump likely seeks headline sales (soybeans, Boeings, TikTok) while Beijing aims to extend the truce and tamp down tariffs.
- Taiwan is always a topic, but China’s priority is stabilizing the relationship, not changing declaratory U.S. policy.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On tariffs as tools of policy and politics:
“Tariffs for [Trump] seem to function as a kind of all purpose bludgeon … It's a source of leverage. It's also just a piece of political theater that energizes his base and reinforces his brand.”
—Kaiser Kuo [18:07] -
On the realities of U.S. manufacturing revival:
“Manufacturing employment has declined since President Trump returned to office... construction spending has plateaued … factory utilization hovers around a range where it doesn't make sense for them to make major new investments.”
—Patricia Kim [15:38] -
On the nature of China’s ambitions:
“China has certainly tried to capitalize on this moment … but the reality is I don't think Beijing is interested at all in replacing Washington as a global leader, at least not in the way that the United States has traditionally played that role.”
—Patricia Kim [47:13] -
On AI competition:
“There isn't a singular AI race … the Trump administration has been, I think, a bit more general in the way that it's framed the competition. It's just said generally that the US needs to maintain a lead in AI and stay ahead of China.”
—Patricia Kim [27:00]
Timestamps of Important Segments
- Opening & Guest Introduction: [01:31–04:43]
- Does the Trump Administration Have a China Strategy? [04:46–09:36]
- Structural Policy Continuity vs. Trump’s Style [09:36–10:43]
- Re-industrialization / Tariffs Discussion [13:17–24:54]
- AI Leadership, Diffusion, and Export Controls [24:54–35:32]
- De-risking & Rare Earths Case Study [35:32–41:30]
- Global Standing, Allies, and China’s Restraint [41:30–48:59]
- Scenarios/Outlook, Upcoming Summits [50:01–54:53]
- Nuclear Arms Control & Security Outlook [55:14–56:36]
- Recommendations (“Paying It Forward” & Cultural Picks) [57:29–64:13]
Resources and Recommendations
- Patricia Kim's Brookings Paper:
Making America Great Again? Evaluating Trump’s China Strategy at the One Year Mark — Patricia Kim & Joyce Yang [57:08] - Brookings “Lost in Translation” Series:
Brings serious Chinese perspectives to Western readers, showcasing writing from Chinese and international scholars (including Dawei & Sun Chenghao from Tsinghua University) [57:29] - Book Recommendations:
- To Dare Mighty Things by Michael Hanlon — comprehensive account of U.S. defense strategy [61:00]
- Stalingrad by Vasily Grossman — sweepingly moral and tragic WWII novel, Soviet “War and Peace” [61:54]
- Related Sinica Episodes:
- Interview with Ryan Hass on U.S.-China scenarios [50:01]
- Interview with Tong Zhao (Carnegie) on Chinese nuclear strategy [56:46]
Tone and Closing
Patricia Kim speaks with analytical rigor, consistently referencing data and realities behind the rhetoric. Kaiser injects humor and skepticism but maintains a thoughtful critical lens, often connecting policy to everyday realities and long-term risks.
Final Quote:
“We seem to be entering this phase of no restraints on great powers ... It's a dangerous world and it has real consequences for Asia.”
—Patricia Kim [55:14]
This conversation offers a nuanced, empirically grounded look at the substance and limitations of Trump-era China policy, highlighting gaps between announced ambitions and measurable results, and the enduring structural challenges shaping U.S.-China relations. Highly recommended for anyone seeking a sober, evidence-based perspective on the world’s most consequential bilateral relationship.